Sep 2010 Demand data is out and stay tuned for visa bulletin [Archive]

gc_on_demand

08-09-2010, 08:04 AM

for EB2 China/India, the number for calender Year 2006 is "0". and the foot note reads "Categories not listed are "current"...

does this mean we are entering 2007 for EB2 as some predicted.

its for prior to 2006.Its good news for people with PD prior to 2005 that USCIS thinks that they will be able to issue GC for all of them before Sep 30th. Some one posted that for Sep we have same or little more visa number available as Aug. then date will move till July 2006. not much reduction from aug to sep .. about 6-7k we got in aug.

gcgonewild

08-09-2010, 08:06 AM

This is great news..

If the spillover is >20K Dates will move into 2007,

More, if the DOS/USCIS wants new 485 then well into 2008

Demand data for sep 2010 is out..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Does any one has last month demand data ?

isantem

08-09-2010, 08:10 AM

It's looks like EB-3 ROW wil jump a year from 2004 into 2005!!!

Also EB-2 India will go in 2007!!!

I think a lot of people will be celebrating tomorrow.

:rolleyes::)

vbkris77

08-09-2010, 08:20 AM

We need to stop calculations and start spreading the word for action items. One such out there is for filing I485 when PD is not current.

Pls spread the word among friends..

GCHope2011

08-09-2010, 08:21 AM

for EB2 China/India, the number for calender Year 2006 is "0". and the foot note reads "Categories not listed are "current"...

does this mean we are entering 2007 for EB2 as some predicted.
Here is my interpretation of the data:

There are 23,205 pending applications for the year 2006 (as the column is titled "prior to"). So if the SOFAD numbers are going to be in the range of 23,205, then entire EB2 for 2006 will be cleared.

Going by the numbers being estimated by some of the esteemed members in the other thread, 23,205 SOFAD might be in the range of possibility, but I am not raising my hopes.

FinalGC

08-09-2010, 08:36 AM

This is indeed good news for all PDs before 2006, but I doubt it will cross 2006 for Aug

When I compared the data from April 2010 and Sept 2010

The overflow is as the following:

EB2 (for prior CY2007)
China - 5850,
India - 21800....
Total Overflow - 27650

EB3 (for prior to CY2003)
China - 1875,
India -1250
Mexico - (this is wierd, since applications went up by - 905)
Phillipines - 1150 (prior to CY 2005)

WAIT_FOR_EVER_GC

08-09-2010, 08:39 AM

We need to stop calculations and start spreading the word for action items. One such out there is for filing I485 when PD is not current.

Pls spread the word among friends..

I agree with Vbkris77. Members please help people who are not able to file for 485.
IV wants to show USCIS that there are a lot of people who are suffering. We know that there are lot of people out there. Let us find them together.
.4 person from 1 already existing members will give us 10000 people who are waiting.

GCHope2011

08-09-2010, 08:43 AM

Here is my interpretation of the data:

There are 23,205 pending applications for the year 2006 (as the column is titled "prior to"). So if the SOFAD numbers are going to be in the range of 23,205, then entire EB2 for 2006 will be cleared.

Going by the numbers being estimated by some of the esteemed members in the other thread, 23,205 SOFAD might be in the range of possibility, but I am not raising my hopes.
Further Analysis:

SOFAD Cut-off Date
23205 Jan 1, 2007
20,590 Dec 1, 2006
18,137 Nov 1, 2006
15,589 Oct 1, 2006
13,009 Sep 1, 2006

I think Teddy's, Q's. Rao's and others estimate pretty much 15K SOFAD to be certain. Which means that Sep-2006 will surely clear out.

The rest of 2006 will really depend on the magnitude of additional SOFAD (beyond the 15 K).

And finally - this is the reason why I had said that I was keeping my expectations in check in my previous post. There is no reason for me to get reds for that - as you can see in the table above.

mhssatya

08-09-2010, 09:44 AM

i guess the VB is coming out today. anybody know what time? i'm hung-up on this VB as i'm Oct 06 eb2.

aksaharan

08-09-2010, 09:52 AM

I agree with vbkrish77 .. please spread word about polling on "Filing I485 when PD is not current" @ http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1599353-want-to-file-485-gather-here.html

frostrated

08-09-2010, 09:59 AM

Further Analysis:

SOFAD Cut-off Date
23205 Jan 1, 2007
20,590 Dec 1, 2006
18,137 Nov 1, 2006
15,589 Oct 1, 2006
13,009 Sep 1, 2006

I think Teddy's, Q's. Rao's and others estimate pretty much 15K SOFAD to be certain. Which means that Sep-2006 will surely clear out.

The rest of 2006 will really depend on the magnitude of additional SOFAD (beyond the 15 K).

And finally - this is the reason why I had said that I was keeping my expectations in check in my previous post. There is no reason for me to get reds for that - as you can see in the table above.

I am not really sure I follow your numbers. But looking at the pending numbers just for India between March 2006 to Sept 2006, there are abot 11K applications. As per the Demand Data there are additional 6K that are current and pending.
There were approx between 6 and 8K visas that were issued for India and about 12K in the last two months.
Looking at the calculations that were done earlier, if we assume that there are 20K SOFAD numbers, we are looking at only about 7K left to issue for this year. Taking the 6K pending plus the numbers from March 06, I am leaning to the cut off for Sept 10 bulletin being March/April 2006. This is also in line with DoS projections two months ago.

frostrated

08-09-2010, 10:04 AM

I agree with vbkrish77 .. please spread word about polling on "Filing I485 when PD is not current" @ http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1599353-want-to-file-485-gather-here.html

I do not think that DoS or USCIS will agree to this. The last time they messed up, there was a huge fallout. This time around, they know the pending numbers and will be very cautious by moving the dates. They cannot move the dates for EB2 alone. They will have to do so for EB3 too. And when that happens, July 2007 repeats itself.
To get a grip on the number of applications that are eligible to file for 485, USCIS was planning on implementing a process where you have to register to indicate you want to file a 485. They are going to use those numbers to move the dates. Dont know what happened to that move.

So, rather than waste your efforts in trying to get USCIS/DoS to budge, work towards a comprehensive solution by lobbying for a change in law.

royu

08-09-2010, 10:20 AM

In the last month (August) the demand data was as follow :

Employee 2nd preference :

Cummulative
demand
prior to China India Others Grand Total
2006 525 3175 0 3700
2007 8275 21600 25 29900
2008 13675 30500 75 44250
2010 13775 30600 200 44575

Employee 3rd preference :

Cummulative
demand
prior to China India Mexico Philippines Other Grand Total
2002 0 500 400 0 150 1050
2003 25 8350 675 25 175 9250
2004 1300 20350 1375 425 2475 25925
2005 3900 34725 2500 1750 9400 52275
2006 5525 44100 3625 5575 24775 83600
2007 6700 55025 5050 17500 44875 129150
2010 7250 59175 5725 19925 52775 144850

From the supply data I do not get much.

amitjoey

08-09-2010, 10:22 AM

I do not think that DoS or USCIS will agree to this. The last time they messed up, there was a huge fallout. This time around, they know the pending numbers and will be very cautious by moving the dates. They cannot move the dates for EB2 alone. They will have to do so for EB3 too. And when that happens, July 2007 repeats itself.
To get a grip on the number of applications that are eligible to file for 485, USCIS was planning on implementing a process where you have to register to indicate you want to file a 485. They are going to use those numbers to move the dates. Dont know what happened to that move.

So, rather than waste your efforts in trying to get USCIS/DoS to budge, work towards a comprehensive solution by lobbying for a change in law.

The change is only administrative. So the visa dates do not move. USCIS will allow all to file for I485 when PD is not current.. That is what we are fighting for.

A comprehensive solution is what everybody wants. But that is not possible untill after the mid-term elections in Nov.

felix31

08-09-2010, 10:22 AM

what does this mean for EB3 ROW?

I would love to see dates move into 2005. It will give me great hope that sometime next year I may be approved ..
but then again, who knows!!

SAP

08-09-2010, 01:35 PM

dskhabra

08-09-2010, 01:49 PM

I think this is only AOS demand. EB3 has a lot of CP demand for 245i cases. I dont think that is counted in here.

frostrated

08-09-2010, 02:24 PM

Folks
pardon does this mean, EB3-I will move to 2003 Jan/ OCT2002 as there are only 25 cases pending as per USCIS published 485 iventory ?

Cumulative
Demand
Prior To China India Mexico Philippines
All Other
Countries
Grand
Total
CY-2002 0 25 450 0 0 475

Thanks

You are interpreting the data wrong.
CY2002 is all dates prior to Oct 2001.
YR2002 is from Oct 2001 to Sept 2002. and CY2003 is all dates prior to Oct 2002.

So when you say CY2002 is 25, it means the number of applications prior to Oct2001.

sdeshpan

08-10-2010, 04:00 PM

You are interpreting the data wrong.
CY2002 is all dates prior to Oct 2001.
YR2002 is from Oct 2001 to Sept 2002. and CY2003 is all dates prior to Oct 2002.

So when you say CY2002 is 25, it means the number of applications prior to Oct2001.
I don't think CY means all dates before Oct. CY = Calendar Year, while Oct is the beginning of Fiscal Year (FY). So CY2002 should mean all dates prior to Jan 1, 2002.

jpkml

08-10-2010, 10:19 PM

bitzbytz

08-10-2010, 10:27 PM

Thanks for posting this. Now I need not be anxious now. next year then, so be it

maddipati1

08-10-2010, 10:28 PM

waav, looks genuine, how could this guy get it before hand. may be they are just about to release. lets see, but not so optimistic for EB2I though just May'06

Not sure how this lawfirm obtained the bulletin, but here is the link //
Pederson Immigration Law Group, P.C. - Priority Dates Progress - September Visa Bulletin Announced! (http://www.usvisainfo.com/content/view/166/1/)

DudefromBombay

08-10-2010, 10:31 PM

I was hoping for a better movement forard :rolleyes:

srinivasj

08-10-2010, 10:31 PM

hmmn if this is true....just 2 months of movement for EB2I and no movement at all for EB3I..dissapointed..

PD1006

08-10-2010, 10:32 PM

Not sure how this lawfirm obtained the bulletin, but here is the link //
Pederson Immigration Law Group, P.C. - Priority Dates Progress - September Visa Bulletin Announced! (http://www.usvisainfo.com/content/view/166/1/)

My lawyer and I discussed visa bulletin earlier this evening. She mentioned that some of the consulates (Mmbai, Chennai) get the bulletin a day prior to release in the United States. It is quite likely there will be formal publication of the bulletin tomorrow.

EB-VoiceImmigration

08-10-2010, 11:40 PM

Why there is no Prior to 2009 in EB2 list and 2008,2009 list in EB3 ?

belmontboy

08-10-2010, 11:45 PM

My lawyer and I discussed visa bulletin earlier this evening. She mentioned that some of the consulates (Mmbai, Chennai) get the bulletin a day prior to release in the United States. It is quite likely there will be formal publication of the bulletin tomorrow.

If the official bulletin is getting published tomorrow, why doesn't mumbai consulate web page show the bulletin now??

gc_on_demand

08-11-2010, 08:29 AM

its for prior to 2006.Its good news for people with PD prior to 2005 that USCIS thinks that they will be able to issue GC for all of them before Sep 30th. Some one posted that for Sep we have same or little more visa number available as Aug. then date will move till July 2006. not much reduction from aug to sep .. about 6-7k we got in aug.

I was thinking we will get 6-7k same as Aug month from some one's post that same numbers of visas are available but I was little wrong.. To me Eb2 India got 12-13k spill over. I do't expect following years will be same in terms of spill numbers. As we move forward this spill over will be less. We have close to 22k prior to july 2007. with porting it will take another 1.5 to 2 years to clear Eb2 India backlog.