EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[Mr. Brown]

Based on the July Determination of Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates,Looks like around 1500 EB3 were upgraded to EB2.

Wow! Good for them!

[dinearok]

If that many visa's got cleared it could also mean that not many visa numbers are left ... so the dates could stall. Like someone said earlier ... is it possible that instead of moving dates during the Jul-Sep months USCIS decided to move it during the May-Jul months?


Looking at the June inventory report, it doesn't seem like a lot of new filing have come thro' with the PD advancing...which i am feeling is good.
Teddy should be able to give us a more clear picture.

[Waitingsince2007]

August Demand data is out - Does this mean all 2006 demand is cleared and 2007 is left for processing?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[TeddyKoochu]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
For EB3 - India I believe that the dates will reach Mid May 2002 (01-JUN-2002 Best Case) but please consider PD porting if your PD is beyond 2002 as it will take a minimum of 2 years to cross 2002 the demand data is still 6400.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007, EB3-I -08-MAY-2002 for Aug 2011.

[dassumi]

So Teddy, based on your prediction below, you are saying that there will be no movement for EB3I. EB3I today is already showing 01MAY2002. Was this written in error?

========

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
For EB3 - India I believe that the dates will reach May 2002 but please consider PD porting if your PD is beyond 2002 as it will take a minimum of 2 years to cross 2002 the demand data is still 6400.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007, EB3-I -01-MAY-2007 for Aug 2011.

[cvsravan]

As per the demand data document example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current". so given that after all the 6400 485 applications are approved in the next couple of months, the monthly allocation will exceed the the demand ( which will be zero then)...should not EB2 become "Current"?

[dinearok]

As per the demand data document example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current". so given that after all the 6400 485 applications are approved in the next couple of months, the monthly allocation will exceed the the demand ( which will be zero then)...should not EB2 become "Current"?


I guess USCIS won't mistake they did in July 2007 again. I have a feeling that they would try to estimate the number of people waiting to file 485 and move accordingly.(like how Teddy said, sorta Q1 2008,etc). Making things current will again result in a flood of applications.

[imdeng]

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--175
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (175+225+100+125) = 625 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.


Based on the July Determination of Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates,Looks like around 1500 EB3 were upgraded to EB2.

[TeddyKoochu]

So Teddy, based on your prediction below, you are saying that there will be no movement for EB3I. EB3I today is already showing 01MAY2002. Was this written in error?

========

"For EB3 - India I believe that the dates will reach Mid May 2002 (01-JUN-2002 Best Case) but please consider PD porting if your PD is beyond 2002 as it will take a minimum of 2 years to cross 2002 the demand data is still 6400.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007, EB3-I -08-MAY-2002 to 15-MAY-2002 for Aug 2011."

My apologies for the typo. I updated as given above. Most of the EB3 numbers have actually been front loaded so we should have around 300-400 more numbers left considering only 2 months to go. The conservative point by that is 15-MAY-2002 till Sep 2011. So in this bulletin the movement maybe 1-2 weeks 08-MAY-2002 to 15-MAY-2002. However if we reach 15th MAY 2002 in this bulletin itself there maybe another 2 weeks movement in September.

[dassumi]

Thanks Teddy - That makes sense.


"For EB3 - India I believe that the dates will reach Mid May 2002 (01-JUN-2002 Best Case) but please consider PD porting if your PD is beyond 2002 as it will take a minimum of 2 years to cross 2002 the demand data is still 6400.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007, EB3-I -08-MAY-2002 to 15-MAY-2002 for Aug 2011."

My apologies for the typo. I updated as given above. Most of the EB3 numbers have actually been front loaded so we should have around 300-400 more numbers left considering only 2 months to go. The conservative point by that is 15-MAY-2002 till Sep 2011. So in this bulletin the movement maybe 1-2 weeks 08-MAY-2002 to 15-MAY-2002. However if we reach 15th MAY 2002 in this bulletin itself there maybe another 2 weeks movement in September.

[gc_peshwa]

I was hoping to file AOS next month but guess not. Dates would hit Jun 2007 for EB2IC and I would be part of the "next Intake" I guess. HOLY INTAKES!

[Mr. Brown]

I was hoping to file AOS next month but guess not. Dates would hit Jun 2007 for EB2IC and I would be part of the "next Intake" I guess. HOLY INTAKES!

It doesn't match our wishful thinking but yes, it does seem like it. I am in the same boat as yours BTW.

[moonrah]

Aren't they suppose to prepare for next spillover season? Meaning taking more application so that they have enough to use next spillover in four months time? I read from other forum that any movement (if any) fron now on will not be just to use remaining spillover but to take additional applications as well. I guess that news is not right.

[bits219]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
For EB3 - India I believe that the dates will reach Mid May 2002 (01-JUN-2002 Best Case) but please consider PD porting if your PD is beyond 2002 as it will take a minimum of 2 years to cross 2002 the demand data is still 6400.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007, EB3-I -08-MAY-2002 for Aug 2011.
Teddy,

If you are estimating SOFAD to be 33k and only 25k has been used, then it would mean around 8k visas are available. If known demand is only 6400 then state department must advance cut off dates beyond July 2007 to ensure consulates can use additional visas via consular processing cases? PWMBs can't be approved in FY2010 to get allocated a visa number so dates must advance??

[bits219]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
For EB3 - India I believe that the dates will reach Mid May 2002 (01-JUN-2002 Best Case) but please consider PD porting if your PD is beyond 2002 as it will take a minimum of 2 years to cross 2002 the demand data is still 6400.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007, EB3-I -08-MAY-2002 for Aug 2011.
Teddy,

If you are estimating SOFAD to be 33k and only 25k has been used, then it would mean around 8k visas are available. If known demand is only 6400 then state department must advance cut off dates beyond July 2007 to ensure consulates can use additional visas via consular processing cases? PWMBs can't be approved in FY2010 to get allocated a visa number so dates must advance??

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

If you are estimating SOFAD to be 33k and only 25k has been used, then it would mean around 8k visas are available. If known demand is only 6400 then state department must advance cut off dates beyond July 2007 to ensure consulates can use additional visas via consular processing cases? PWMBs can't be approved in FY2010 to get allocated a visa number so dates must advance??

I think there is a slight confusion the EB2 I + C demand is 10.5K, you will have to consider both. EB3-I 2002 demand is 6.4K.

[soorigadu2003]

Thanks for the analysis Teddy!

Mine is Aug 07, any chance for this year?

[red200]

33 K sofad explanation for 2011

EB1 - 12 K as published (conservative) - For sure
EB2 - 8K conservative , previous year(2010) 12K spillover from EB2
EB4/EB5 - 8k conservative (6.5 from EB5) as per the aila document
regular quota - 5.5 (I+C)

total 33.5 K

All these values are based on conservative calculations.
Per the June inventory EB1 still had 9000 pending applications even when its current
and row has some 4000(i may be wrong here), These apps are pending from long time even though EB2 row and EB1 are current. If they are not completed by sept 30 most or atleast half of them should fall to EB2 I + C
In this case sofad should be much more than 33 K


Teddy let me know if i am wrong here, Your comments are welcome

[bits219]

Sorry in my excitement I pulled wrong number! thanks for correcting me. So to expect movement beyond July 2007 remaining SOFAD has to be more than 10.5k?

I think there is a slight confusion the EB2 I + C demand is 10.5K, you will have to consider both. EB3-I 2002 demand is 6.4K.

[reddymjm]

There might be some surprises for EB3 I, in Aug/Sep bulliten.

[puding]

There might be some surprises for EB3 I, in Aug/Sep bulliten.

I agree. The surprise is we stay where we are today :)

[puding]

Teddy, please do all EB3s a favor and rename this thread to "EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)". Seeing EB3 in the heading and seeing nothing inside about EB3 movements, is actually painful.

I second this request. Please change the title.

[dassumi]

The obvious question reddymjm is whether in your opinion these are Pleasant or Unpleasant surprises.

I think we will have the standard 9 day movement, 7 days if we are unlucky and 15 days if we are lucky.

Are you seeing something else that I am not seeing?

There might be some surprises for EB3 I, in Aug/Sep bulliten.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends we are also discussing EB3-I here, refer to post # 1 and other discussions, however if all EB3 folks feel that title is inappropriate I will request the Admin to change it. Actually the discussion is self stimulating; many EB3 friends also participate here. Unfortunately the Eb3-I situation in particular is not great and the movement is very predictable that is why that discussion does not catch traction, the intention is not to offend anybody. Many EB3 friends whose dates are closer do visit this thread. We have discussed porting many times here and most people support it.

[Mr. Brown]

I second this request. Please change the title.

Sheesh! Just because there is no movement for EB3 you want to get all nit picky? If you don't want to view the thread then don't open it ... simple!

Come to think of it ... it actually might be a good idea to make it a EB2 only thread ... but that won't keep the whiners from visiting it ... now would it?

As depressing as it may be please look on the bright side ... you are the lucky ones with the EAD's and AP's ... for almost 4 years now ... with EAD's and AP's

your spouses have opportunities to work,
you have the chance to find better paying opportunities,
you and your spouses qualify for unemployment checks,
buy properties and
travel int'l as you wish.


Essentially, you've got the opportunity to do everything that you would with a GC.

I apologize if I hurt anyone's feelings here but enough is enough. I missed filing for I-485 by less than a month (thanks to my overly lethargic lawyer) and I am not a lone case here ... but you don't see us whining here.

Focus your energies on what can be done to change ... it's neither easy nor fast ... else it would've been done by now.

[puding]

Sheesh! Just because there is no movement for EB3 you want to get all nit picky? If you don't want to view the thread then don't open it ... simple!

Come to think of it ... it actually might be a good idea to make it a EB2 only thread ... but that won't keep the whiners from visiting it ... now would it?

As depressing as it may be please look on the bright side ... you are the lucky ones with the EAD's and AP's ... for almost 4 years now ... with EAD's and AP's

your spouses have opportunities to work,
you have the chance to find better paying opportunities,
buy properties and
travel int'l as you wish.


Essentially, you've got the opportunity to do everything that you would with a GC.

I apologize if I hurt anyone's feelings here but enough is enough. I missed filing for I-485 by less than a month (thanks to my overly lethargic lawyer) and I am not a lone case here ... but you don't see us whining here.

Focus your energies on what can be done to change ... it's neither easy nor fast ... else it would've been done by now.

Thanks for the advise. As you said I'm happy with what I'm and I have. Just saying that as there is no prediction needed for EB3 as everyone knows, why don't change the title. Again, I'm not complaining or whining about other folks. Hope you guys understand this. Thanks.

[bonobocobra]

Does anyone know last year's SOFAD?

Year to year does SOFAD hover around the same number?

[ctm1234]

Count down Starts for Aug 2011...

[shouldIwait]

I think there is a slight confusion the EB2 I + C demand is 10.5K, you will have to consider both. EB3-I 2002 demand is 6.4K.


Teddy,

We are not including PWMB in these calculations. As per my estimates based upon PERM data, that I've posted earlier on this thread, there could be about 2.5K PWMB between Mar '07 and 1 JUN, '07. Won't they cut into this share substantially.

- Anand ;)

[doknek]

What time do they release VB? I am getting impatient.

[goel_ar]

What time do they release VB? I am getting impatient.

i don't think govt work after 4pm.so tomorrow ..

[cjain]

its most likely wont come out today...already time to go home in dc i guess

What time do they release VB? I am getting impatient.

[skpanda]

Should be posted by tomorrow...

Mumbai might update their site tonight.. so you may want to check that later today.. otherwise.. tomorrow.

PS: Apr 2011 was posted around 7 PM (on 8th April)

[TeddyKoochu]

33 K sofad explanation for 2011

EB1 - 12 K as published (conservative) - For sure
EB2 - 8K conservative , previous year(2010) 12K spillover from EB2
EB4/EB5 - 8k conservative (6.5 from EB5) as per the aila document
regular quota - 5.5 (I+C)

total 33.5 K

All these values are based on conservative calculations.
Per the June inventory EB1 still had 9000 pending applications even when its current
and row has some 4000(i may be wrong here), These apps are pending from long time even though EB2 row and EB1 are current. If they are not completed by sept 30 most or atleast half of them should fall to EB2 I + C
In this case sofad should be much more than 33 K


Teddy let me know if i am wrong here, Your comments are welcome

You are correct 33K is more of a conservative figure, however the note of caution is that EB1 and EB2 ROW backlog is at an unprecedented level. The EB2 ROW and EB1 demand has not come down drastically but the approval process has become far more stringent. It is possible that these cases get accelerated in the last quarter and they start consuming their regular cap, otherwise if things stay as they are we should get 8K.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

We are not including PWMB in these calculations. As per my estimates based upon PERM data, that I've posted earlier on this thread, there could be about 2.5K PWMB between Mar '07 and 1 JUN, '07. Won't they cut into this share substantially.

- Anand ;)

PWMB scenario is different they (Me included) will get a chance to file only when dates reach us. It will take 3-4 months for these cases to be adjudicated, so the real question is will numbers be available at that time to approve them. PWMB factor for now will not impact date movement.

[tarry4gc]

i don't think govt work after 4pm.so tomorrow ..

If it follows last month, VB will be released only on Wednesday (8th business day)

[krishmunn]

Teddy,

If you are estimating SOFAD to be 33k and only 25k has been used, then it would mean around 8k visas are available. If known demand is only 6400 then state department must advance cut off dates beyond July 2007 to ensure consulates can use additional visas via consular processing cases? PWMBs can't be approved in FY2010 to get allocated a visa number so dates must advance??

Demand is not 6400. you are forgetting China

[chikna]

Visa bulletin is not out yet and it's taking time. Do you think all EB categories will be current because of **horrible** job market?

[snathan]

Visa bulletin is not out yet and it's taking time. Do you think all EB categories will be current because of **horrible** job market?

It will be current for everyone except you...are you happy now?

[Mr. Brown]

it will be current for everyone except you...are you happy now?

:d

[PrinceVA]

Nazare jama ke baithe hai raste pe Greencard ke,
layega kaun, nayee(new) dates ko website pe utar ke.

(Website -->Pls note URL to be precise..Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html))

Employer ne laga rakhi hai, PWMB ka label mar ke
layega kaun thodi si Freedom ko website pe utar ke.

gaméy-PWMB

PWMB scenario is different they (Me included) will get a chance to file only when dates reach us. It will take 3-4 months for these cases to be adjudicated, so the real question is will numbers be available at that time to approve them. PWMB factor for now will not impact date movement.

[goingtoindia]

State Department Releases Demand Data Used in the Determination of the August 2011 EB Cut-Off Dates... Apologies if this is redundant information though.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[Jaguar]

Hello All,
Can someone predict when will PD of July 2004, EB-3 catagory will become current? I am sure there is an answer somewhere in this thread, but thought of asking experts....
Thanks, Jaguar

[Mr. Brown]

Hello All,
Can someone predict when will PD of July 2004, EB-3 catagory will become current? I am sure there is an answer somewhere in this thread, but thought of asking experts....
Thanks, Jaguar

I understand that it's hard to search through 190 pages of this thread but did you look at the very beginning? You will find the answer in the first page if not the first post itself.

[tampacoolie]

Looking at the June inventory report, it doesn't seem like a lot of new filing have come thro' with the PD advancing...which i am feeling is good.
Teddy should be able to give us a more clear picture.

I don't think its correct to compare USCIS inventory data with DOS demand data, as DOS demand data only count petitions that are in approval stage. There is a keyword "documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants reported at consular posts and CIS Offices, grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference category, and priority date". There could be many more PWMB and potential dependent filling for primaries who got married after they had filed their I485 during July 2007. USCIS inventory doesn't include EB I485 pending on consular posts.

[coolngood4u80]

It will be current for everyone except you...are you happy now?

good one:)

[Mr. Brown]

I don't think its correct to compare USCIS inventory data with DOS demand data, as DOS demand data only count petitions that are in approval stage. There is a keyword "documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants reported at consular posts and CIS Offices, grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference category, and priority date". There could be many more PWMB and potential dependent filling for primaries who got married after they had filed their I485 during July 2007. USCIS inventory doesn't include EB I485 pending on consular posts.

My head hurts ... :p

[gc_on_demand]

DOS has make sure that for Aug bulletin no one get clue. Not any lawyer or blog / forums site has got any info from their source. As CO mentioned in June bulletin that no guess should be made until bulletin is released. CO also may have instructed his staff not leak out any info.

May be he wants to deliver surprise himself. :):):):)

[PrinceVA]

I donno why VB not published y'day, was expecting it.

Is it good or bad news that they are taking time to publish it. I see many approvals, did talk to few friends and many of their known friends got the approvals and GC.

Talking to a guy who has a consulting company in CA and has over 80 employees, said by december it may reach last quarter of 2007 or first quarter of 2008.

just Keeping my fingers crossed.

DOS has make sure that for Aug bulletin no one get clue. Not any lawyer or blog / forums site has got any info from their source. As CO mentioned in June bulletin that no guess should be made until bulletin is released. CO also may have instructed his staff not leak out any info.

May be he wants to deliver surprise himself. :):):):)

[mayurcreation]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

[pbuckeye]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

Looks like this is what will be used to update the bulletin page. Practically no movement. Teddy - whats your take on this?

[jindhal]

That bulletin is so 80's. Havent seen a "memo" like that for a while.

[pbuckeye]

That bulletin is so 80's. Havent seen a "memo" like that for a while.

Its published on the web page now. Same dates.

[TeddyKoochu]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

Thanks for posting this bulletin seems to look quite real. EB3-I at 01-JUN-2002 that’s quite a good move, EB2-I moved to just 15-APR-2007 shorter than expected but still forward movement.

[sandy_anand]

Yup, official now

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

[TeddyKoochu]

Its published on the web page now. Same dates.

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.

[thankgod]

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.



Looks like Eb2 row is struggling because of porting.

Lot of people are considering porting from Eb3 to Eb2.

Now Eb2 and Eb3 are forearding in same pace.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Teddy - That makes sense.

Dassumi the best case scenario materialized EB3-I is now 01-JUN-2002 I don't think it will move much in September but you have good chances now by the end of the year to be current. All the best to everyone who became current.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hello All,
Can someone predict when will PD of July 2004, EB-3 catagory will become current? I am sure there is an answer somewhere in this thread, but thought of asking experts....
Thanks, Jaguar

Realistically it will take 7-8 years to be current. You should try for PD porting by all means. You can refer to post # 1 for details.

[TeddyKoochu]

Looks like Eb2 row is struggling because of porting.

Lot of people are considering porting from Eb3 to Eb2.

Now Eb2 and Eb3 are forearding in same pace.

The main reason is that most of the SOFAD was allocated much earlier than the last quarter; PD porting is not more than 6K.

[coolngood4u80]

Visa Bulletin is gone !!! back to "coming soon"

[goel_ar]

You should try for PD porting by all means.
and bring backlog to EB2 also :) - lets die together ; why alone ? :)

[sanz]

WTF happenned. Didnt they post it and move it to April 15 07 . Now its gone from their website. . Looks like they were doing testing on their production servers..

:-)

MEra # kab ayega...... Aaa ke chala gaya kya....

[chikna]

August 2011 coming soon.....???

[mk26]

WTF happenned. Didnt they post it and move it to April 15 07 . Now its gone from their website. . Looks like they were doing testing on their production servers..

:-)

MEra # kab ayega...... Aaa ke chala gaya kya....
This game called Aankh Micholi..:)

[EB2-buddy]

Seems some error on the linking page, but its accessible thru direct link

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

[Mr. Brown]

I agree. Instead of the usual Jul, Aug they probably made the leaps in May, June this time. I don't think porting is the reason ... for one thing ... it's not that easy to port. There are too many restrictions and good luck asking an employer to file for PERM in this job market.

The main reason is that most of the SOFAD was allocated much earlier than the last quarter; PD porting is not more than 6K.

[aandrew_19]

OK, guys. Missed the train by 5 bogies (5 days) - with a priority date of 20-Apr-07.

[Mr. Brown]

They sure aren't very elegant in their methods ...

WTF happenned. Didnt they post it and move it to April 15 07 . Now its gone from their website. . Looks like they were doing testing on their production servers..

:-)

MEra # kab ayega...... Aaa ke chala gaya kya....

[smanohar]

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

This URL still is valid though

[Mr. Brown]

Aw ... shucks! You'll get there in a month ... it's a wait but you'll get there ... :-)


OK, guys. Missed the train by 5 bogies (5 days) - with a priority date of 20-Apr-07.

[rakesh76]

here is the original link..

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

i don't think anything is gonna change...if they change, we are lucky....

[aandrew_19]

From Oh Law. What it means?

"State Department Prediction of September 2011 Visa Cut-Off Dates:

Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year."

[Mr. Brown]

Well said. It brings back good memories though! Those days for me ... not a problem in the world!

That bulletin is so 80's. Havent seen a "memo" like that for a while.

[frustratingGC]

If the dates doesn't move much by Sep., what to except by 2012 August?

Being the election year and current issues by Goverment, what is the chance next year?:o

[Mr. Brown]

I think the %tage/quotas are separate for FB and EB ... aren't they? I know they all come from the same 140K pool.

From Oh Law. What it means?

"State Department Prediction of September 2011 Visa Cut-Off Dates:

Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year."

[Mr. Brown]

What does election have to do with a law that's already in place? If it were that easy to change then they would've changed it every election year ...

If the dates doesn't move much by Sep., what to except by 2012 August?

Being the election year and current issues by Goverment, what is the chance next year?:o

[Mr. Brown]

He was just being nice ;)

and bring backlog to EB2 also :) - lets die together ; why alone ? :)

[Mr. Brown]

Nah! They won't change ... it's already typed up (referring to the 80's looking memo in PDF) :D


here is the original link..

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

i don't think anything is gonna change...if they change, we are lucky....

[MYGC2008]

It may be a Calculated Move because the July approvals were very slow ( May be due to Holidays, vacation etc). Right now July approvals have just started to pick up and DOS wants to give some time to USCIS so that they can adjust the movement in the last month.

[Mr. Brown]

TK, your predictions are still the most accurate!

Summary Of Predictions EB2 - India
TeddyKoochu 01-JUN-2007 - 15-AUG-2007
gc_on_demand - NOV 2007
ambals03 - (AUG) -- 01-SEP-07; EB2 India (SEP) -- 01-SEP-07
belmontboy - 01-AUG-2007
fatboysam - July 21st 2007
shan24 - 01-01-2009 or 08-07-2009
macx - Jun 07 (Aug VB) => 3-4 months, EB2 - Aug 07 (Sep VB) , EB2 - Dec 07 (Oct VB) => for next year
pkrg - Aug - Jun 1, 2007; Sep - Jul 22, 2007; Oct - Jul 22, 2009; Nov - Mar 8, 2007

Summary Of Predictions EB3 - India
TeddyKoochu EB3 I- MAY 15 To 01 JUN 2002
ambals03 - 09-MAY-02; EB3 India (SEP) -- 17-MAY-02
fatboysam - Dec 2002
shan24 - 05-15-2002
chikna - week for every month

[doknek]

It may be a Calculated Move because the July approvals were very slow ( May be due to Holidays, vacation etc). Right now July approvals have just started to pick up and DOS wants to give some time to USCIS so that they can adjust the movement in the last month.

Are you sure? There was only 1-day off in July and VB this month came out on 12th instead of 8th/11th. This gotta cover the day off.

[Leo07]

whatever it is...it is absolute KLPD
It may be a Calculated Move because the July approvals were very slow ( May be due to Holidays, vacation etc). Right now July approvals have just started to pick up and DOS wants to give some time to USCIS so that they can adjust the movement in the last month.

[aarzoo]

Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

Its back to Aug 2011 (coming soon)

[Mr. Brown]

Conservatively speaking, true. Do you think that would clear up a large percentage of PWMB or is there a large number of those in July?

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.

[gc_on_demand]

Direct URLs are still working , only Landing page is not so it could be cache issue. If they have to taken off bulletin they can remove document itself...

May be some IT folks can provide much about caching. Lets not keep high hope.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK, your predictions are still the most accurate!

Thanks for your kind words, EB3 prediction has materialized completely. EB2 I feel there is a maximum of 5K to realistically to come as the current Sofad allocated is 28K it may be less so we will error out by 2-3K. However this will prove to be really dear to especially the PWMB's.

[pkrg21]

Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

Its back to Aug 2011 (coming soon)

The talk in the Chinese forum is they made a typo for EB2. Its should have been 15-Apr-2008 instead of 2007. I am just saying what i heard, don't keep your hopes up.

[frustratingGC]

During election period, ruling party prevent things that may get opposition attention..
Goverment tend to be more conservative, we may not except like july 2007 floodgate opening next year taking current unemployment rate in to account. This is just my assumption.
What does election have to do with a law that's already in place? If it were that easy to change then they would've changed it every election year ...

[doknek]

The talk in the Chinese forum is they made a typo for EB2. Its should have been 15-Apr-2008 instead of 2007. I am just saying what i heard, don't keep your hopes up.

Where is this Chinese forum? Plz give us sources.

[sanz]

typo in final release. they could have just made it current like in July 07... good old times

[rsdang1]

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)


Not as much progress as I would like but still some

For India:
EB2: 15APR07
EB3: 01JUN02

For China:
EB2: 15APR07
EB3: 08JUL04

[r1r1r1]

Really Nice :) "15-Apr-2008 instead of 2007" . Hope for the Best!!!!!!

The talk in the Chinese forum is they made a typo for EB2. Its should have been 15-Apr-2008 instead of 2007. I am just saying what i heard, don't keep your hopes up.

[rahil]

Why did they take out the visa bulletin??

[snathan]

The talk in the Chinese forum is they made a typo for EB2. Its should have been 15-Apr-2008 instead of 2007. I am just saying what i heard, don't keep your hopes up.

I also have read in the other blog about this...but did you see in the Chinse forum...

[november]

Mumbai visa bulletin is not updated yet. It still says 08 mar 07 for EB2. Does this means there is any chance for change?:confused:

[maximus777]

Time for conspiracy theories and speculation!! :D

[doknek]

Mumbai visa bulletin is not updated yet. It still says 08 mar 07 for EB2. Does this means there is any chance for change?:confused:

Mumbai VB took ~1-day more to get updated last month. It usually is not in sync. Correct me if I am wrong.

[schandwani]

I say DOS and USCIS should start a desi movie production house. they can add more thrill and drama than the bollywood blockbusters

[frustratingGC]

Good time pass at work..:D

[sandy_anand]

I also have read in the other blog about this...but did you see in the Chinse forum...

ÆäʵÊÇ£²£°£°£¸ÄꣴÔ¡£ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com) (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31362401.html)

use Chrome's webpage translation.

[frustratingGC]

When so many people are crazy about GC...It is DOS & USCIS show...I say DOS and USCIS should start a desi movie production house. they can add more thrill and drama than the bollywood blockbusters

[Mr. Brown]

Wow! That'd be nice! I am sure all of us will excuse them of this "error" :D

The talk in the Chinese forum is they made a typo for EB2. Its should have been 15-Apr-2008 instead of 2007. I am just saying what i heard, don't keep your hopes up.

[hpabbathi]

I hope this seems to be a good news, they have taken out visa bulletin from website.
Check the link below.
Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

[skpanda]

and bring backlog to EB2 also :) - lets die together ; why alone ? :)

I disagree with you. If a person is in EB3... and is eligible for EB2.. they should port (if possible) by all means.

Why should they be allowed to keep their old PD? Simply because they have been working on their GC for that long and deserve that.

No body stopped an EB2 from filing an EB3 when they were not eligible for EB2 and port later.

Barring few exceptions, EB3 folks have the similar credentials as that of EB2 and in many cases, far more senior in terms of years of experience than EB2.

[csreddy329]

Now underlying link for HTML also removed

[Rahulkilaru]

Now underlying link for HTML also removed

It is still there.

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

[pd052009]

The VB says "The recording is normally updated by the middle of each month with information on cut-off dates for the following month.".

(202) 663-1541 still plays June VB dates.

[keshmahajan]

Good news .. somthing is wrong with bulletin .. hope it is typo and they will make it 15 Apr 2008

[cjain]

nope its still there

Now underlying link for HTML also removed

[Mr. Brown]

I fully agree with your statements in this regard. Porting should not be viewed in negative terms. It's just another route for EB3's to catch up if they've earned it.

I disagree with you. If a person is in EB3... and is eligible for EB2.. they should port (if possible) by all means.

Why should they be allowed to keep their old PD? Simply because they have been working on their GC for that long and deserve that.

No body stopped an EB2 from filing an EB3 when they were not eligible for EB2 and port later.

Barring few exceptions, EB3 folks have the similar credentials as that of EB2 and in many cases, far more senior in terms of years of experience than EB2.

[dog123]

I agree.................

I fully agree with your statements in this regard. Porting should not be viewed in negative terms. It's just another route for EB3's to catch up if they've earned it.

[Edison99]

Check this link Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html) :)
I hope this seems to be a good news, they have taken out visa bulletin from website.
Check the link below.
Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

[csreddy329]

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)
On clicking that link I'm getting below error

Invalid URL

The requested URL "/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html", is invalid.
Reference #9.3e1a1918.1310486543.15857c04

[sandy_anand]

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)
On clicking that link I'm getting below error

Invalid URL

The requested URL "/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html", is invalid.
Reference #9.3e1a1918.1310486543.15857c04

That link is working still.

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)

[cjain]

I am not!

Visa Bulletin for August 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html)
On clicking that link I'm getting below error

Invalid URL

The requested URL "/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html", is invalid.
Reference #9.3e1a1918.1310486543.15857c04

[goel_ar]

I disagree with you. If a person is in EB3... and is eligible for EB2.. they should port (if possible) by all means.

Why should they be allowed to keep their old PD? Simply because they have been working on their GC for that long and deserve that.

No body stopped an EB2 from filing an EB3 when they were not eligible for EB2 and port later.

Barring few exceptions, EB3 folks have the similar credentials as that of EB2 and in many cases, far more senior in terms of years of experience than EB2.
They should - I am not saying they shouldn't. But someone shouldn't have to repeat same thing over & over again.
All EB3 are well aware of this fact - don't you think?

[letstalklc]

Without that link, we cant see august 2011 bulletin.

If we navigate through the website, it still shows - Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)

Hope for the best folks......lot of speculations.......

[skpanda]

They should - I am not saying they shouldn't. But someone shouldn't have to repeat same thing over & over again.
All EB3 are well aware of this fact - don't you think?

ok.. it sounded as if you were opposing the idea EB3 to EB2 porting... all cool now... njoy the USCIS/DOS drama Bollywood style.. :)

[keshmahajan]

ok.. it sounded as if you were opposing the idea EB3 to EB2 porting... all cool now... njoy the USCIS/DOS drama Bollywood style.. :)

rightly said :)

But I do not know why members here argue for porting? If they can change the law, go and get it changed.

[waiting2007]

Not bollywood like drama..Bollywood is quite predictable...bad person is going to get killed..Lovers get married etc...This is something totally thrilling. You can't guess anything...Absolute thriller :D :D

[gc_peshwa]

Aug VB 2011 In line with my expectations. What can we expect after such slow approvals. Whoever monitoring the IV approvals thread for EB2-IC Dec 06 to Apr 07 would see how low the approval numbers are.
Initial reasons for the low numbers were ranging anywhere from "USCIS IT Systems down" to "TSC is not issuing any approvals"!
Either the above or EB2 category has no more spillover numbers remaining. Its gonna stagnate/hover around Aug 2007 for the Sept 2011 VB.
This surely has to be a hellish time in my life....I am seriously considering going back...

[doknek]

Aug VB link is back:
Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

Sadly, nothing changed

[Mr. Brown]

It's back on the landing page with nothing different ...

[ctm1234]

I know the reason why they took out the bulletin

When I saw this morning it was :

Upoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)

This month's visa bulletin: August 2011

Archived visa bulletins: July 2011 and before

Now they will update it and no change to the dates:

Upoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011

This month's visa bulletin: July 2011

Archived visa bulletins: June 2011 and before


Programmers mistake.

[mk26]

Call those Chinese guys to fix it :)

[MYGC2008]

Lot of things happening

-- Auguest bulletin released and taken out
-- email /text not working
-- no body knows which service center is doing what?
-- where is your application ( in case of transfered)
-- customer service has no idea of application
-- no response to SR
---------keep adding.

[NELLAIKUMAR]

This surely has to be a hellish time in my life....I am seriously considering going back...


Why are you saying that? Isn't it almost certain that you will be current for sure at least in the next year's spillover season?

[mk26]

Lot of things happening

-- Auguest bulletin released and taken out
-- email /text not working
-- no body knows which service center is doing what?
-- where is your application ( in case of transfered)
-- customer service has no idea of application
-- no response to SR
---------keep adding.
Suddenly get you green card without being current.:)

[sandy_anand]

Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

No change

[ctm1234]

Bulletin is back now:

Visa Bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html)

[sanz]

So finally I am current after a long long time .... wow What a wait ;)

[ek_bechara]

And the wait begins for the next one with renewed hope and little confidence that dates will move into August or September 07 or become current (And not to offend our EB3 sufferers… move into 03 to late 03). Sincere, taxpaying, and law abiding and decently if not spectacularly well educated.. but somehow our demands are muted or become undecipherable in the noise of immigration reform where we are falsely clubbed with illegal immigrants. I did my part as a donor and rallied people to call their local government representatives but now find it difficult to keep up with the enthusiasm. Reforms are slow but this slow? Seriously this slow especially when this country is in dire need of innovation?

[immigrant2007]

Aug VB 2011 In line with my expectations. What can we expect after such slow approvals. Whoever monitoring the IV approvals thread for EB2-IC Dec 06 to Apr 07 would see how low the approval numbers are.
Initial reasons for the low numbers were ranging anywhere from "USCIS IT Systems down" to "TSC is not issuing any approvals"!
Either the above or EB2 category has no more spillover numbers remaining. Its gonna stagnate/hover around Aug 2007 for the Sept 2011 VB.
This surely has to be a hellish time in my life....I am seriously considering going back...

this means that EB3 will get help in Sep bulletin. those guys deserve break

[belmontboy]

This surely has to be a hellish time in my life....I am seriously considering going back...

OK. Let us know when you are leaving, we will come to airport and bid you farewell. :p

seriously man, if this is hell, then you don't know what hell is

[Rb_newsletter]

The main reason is that most of the SOFAD was allocated much earlier than the last quarter; PD porting is not more than 6K.

Teddy, where did you get the 6K number for porting? See Pappu's post quoted below. 5K in last 2 years should be 2.5K per year.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-174.html#post2673055
Contrary to popular belief the number is very low. Porting in EB2 by liberal estimates should be no more than 5K applicants in the last 2 years. Maybe like 3K that IV conservatively thinks. The economy is a big hurdle in porting and not many applications were approved in EB2 or successfully ported to EB2 in the last 2 years. There is also an estimate that about 5-6K existing applications may have been abandoned due to layoffs or other factors in EB2.
Do not count on EB3 dates advancing anytime soon if the reason for your assumption is porting.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, where did you get the 6K number for porting? See Pappu's post quoted below. 5K in last 2 years should be 2.5K per year.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-174.html#post2673055

We were able to exactly calculate porting by EB3 inventory difference as 3K, this year because of local office demand being merged with the inventory. Porting definitely is much higher this year than last so 6K was a guesstimate.

[blademaster]

We were able to exactly calculate porting by EB3 inventory difference as 3K, this year because of local office demand being merged with the inventory. Porting definitely is much higher this year than last so 6K was a guesstimate.

Looks like you are stuck with us for some time, TK. :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Looks like you are stuck with us for some time, TK. :)

I would be happy to serve and be with all with a GC :), but being realistic the wait time for me and mosty PWMB's is till Sep 2012 to have GC in hand :)

[NELLAIKUMAR]

I would be happy to serve and be with all with a GC :), but being realistic the wait time for me and mosty PWMB's is till Sep 2012 to have GC in hand :)

Teddy, It is almost certain that Dec' 2007 would be current at least when the next year's spillover starts. Correct?

[hbk]

I would be happy to serve and be with all with a GC :), but being realistic the wait time for me and mosty PWMB's is till Sep 2012 to have GC in hand :)

In that case Teddy, When people like me with PD Sep-16-2007 would be able to file I-485 & get GC ? By end of 2011 OR in which quarter of 2012 ? Whats your best guess ?

I will appreciate your response as always.

Regards.

[Mr. Brown]

Congratulations! Now go get stuff done before the window closes ...

So finally I am current after a long long time .... wow What a wait ;)

[Mr. Brown]

Aug VB 2011 In line with my expectations.
....
Its gonna stagnate/hover around Aug 2007 for the Sept 2011 VB.
This surely has to be a hellish time in my life....I am seriously considering going back...

Aug bulletin meets your expectations? You must have set your expectations pretty low then but clearly you should not be dissapointed at all.

I would'nt call Aug 07 "stagnation". 3 bulletins/months ago we were "stagnated" at May 06. We've come 18 months ahead ... that's a LOT!

Do you and your family have food to eat?, a place to live?, clothes to wear? Most likely your answer is yes ... Congratulations! you are no where close to being in HELL :)

This is 2011 ... if you are a go-getter then GC / not you will get to where ever you want to go in life ...

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, It is almost certain that Dec' 2007 would be current at least when the next year's spillover starts. Correct?

In that case Teddy, When people like me with PD Sep-16-2007 would be able to file I-485 & get GC ? By end of 2011 OR in which quarter of 2012 ? Whats your best guess ?

I will appreciate your response as always.

Regards.

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

[kumarr4]

Any idea when Dec 2008 PD could be reached? I had a hope it may happen next year but it looks doubtful now I guess.

[hbk]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Thanks a lot Teddy.

Getting GC is too far.
When people like me will be able to file I-485(PD Sep-16-2007) ? I need your opinion on this as first I would like to get an idea in which timeframe I will be able to file I-485 ? Whats your guess on earliest/max timeframe to file I-485 ?

Regards.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks a lot Teddy.

Getting GC is too far.
When people like me will be able to file I-485(PD Sep-16-2007) ? I need your opinion on this as first I would like to get an idea in which timeframe I will be able to file I-485 ? Whats your guess on earliest/max timeframe to file I-485 ?

Regards.

This is just my personal opinion about the next intake - "The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012.". Right now since this scenario is unprecedented we have to wait and watch. I can feel your pain even I have not been able to file for 485, but I think we should be able to accomplish everything in quick succession if new intake happens timely. I hope gc_on_demand can comment on the legal aspects of the next intake.

Any idea when Dec 2008 PD could be reached? I had a hope it may happen next year but it looks doubtful now I guess.

It is 2 (Best case) to 4 years worst case scenario. The demad in the range 01-JAN-2008 to 01-AUG-2008 is the heaviest, we probably cannot take 30K SOFAD for granted by then it may reduce if EB1 and EB2 filings pickup.

[NELLAIKUMAR]

Thanks a lot Teddy.

Getting GC is too far.
When people like me will be able to file I-485(PD Sep-16-2007) ? I need your opinion on this as first I would like to get an idea in which timeframe I will be able to file I-485 ? Whats your guess on earliest/max timeframe to file I-485 ?

Regards.

Me too. I am just looking for being able to file 485, so that I can at least avoid standing at the consulate for stamping with uncertainty and travel using AP for my next vacation.

[silveroaks]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Not sure why NVC would waste their resources with all those notices till end Q1 2008?

[TeddyKoochu]

Not sure why NVC would waste their resources with all those notices till end Q1 2008?

There is a chance in an optimistic scenario till the end of Mar 2008 which matches the NVC notices; however it may not be mandatory that the dates reach that level by Sep 2011 we may fall short by a few days to a quarter.

[gc_on_demand]

Not sure why NVC would waste their resources with all those notices till end Q1 2008?

I was hoping date will advance to Nov 2007 since people with that PD got first set of email notices from NVC in early May. Later towards end of May people with up to Q1 2008 PD got emails so my guess was those people may get interview in Sep 2011.

Seems like demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 has gone up so DOS is holding on allocating visas to EB2 IC. As I have said USCIS is driving factor in employment based category.

DOS thought there will be huge SOFAD and may told NVC to start preparing cases for CP. But USCIS changed their game. Still we have one month. If USCIS shows less demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW next months we can see more movement and NVC cases may get interview date Otherwise NVC will process those cases in background and hold on them until next year.

I personally don't believe any movement possible start from Oct with 250 visas a months supply.


Looks what DOS has said in June bulletin :

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. ---- > They know USCIS can come up with any demand and can change DOS's Plan.

Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011. ------ > I think DOS was planing to move date to Q1 2008 in Aug 2011 and Retro back to Sep 2011."

[maverick2010]

Hi Teddy,

My PD is Sept 06.My 485 got filed on Jun 30th.When do you think I would get greened?

Thanks

[sarang02]

Is there a way to figure out application count between two custom dates? like from April-15-2007 to May-18-2007

[frustratingGC]

US immigration system sucks, no transparency, no flexibility. not much different than Indian government offices.

[mankusunny]

Now that I am here, having spent a big chunk of my life, now with a couple of kids and the responsibilities that come with, there isn't much choice but to hang in there and see this through. As Rocky says 'It ain't over, till it's over'!!!

[harrydr]

I concur with your statement. I'm in the same boat and the frustration really kicks in when things become unpredictable since, dates jump significantly one month and then stall when you expect them to jump significantly. Not Ameirca but definitely Europe is the place to be nowdays.

[rxd9507IV]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.
I am new to this forum. "TK" thanks for the thread and extensive quantitative analysis.
My question is given the current employment conditions in US and pathetic economic recovery do qualitative factors impact the dates. When economy as a whole adds 15,000 or less jobs (130ish million workers) is it fair to assume that there are top level instructions to delay visa process.

Is there any chance of visa numbers getting wasted?

[veni001]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Teddy,
Based on 10-01-2010 inventory (EB2IC) and August'11 visa bulletin PD movement, EB2IC usage is almost at your 30K mark. If you add porting numbers we are already at or above 33K for FY2011!

[veni001]

I am new to this forum. "TK" thanks for the thread and extensive quantitative analysis.
My question is given the current employment conditions in US and pathetic economic recovery do qualitative factors impact the dates. When economy as a whole adds 15,000 or less jobs (130ish million workers) is it fair to assume that there are top level instructions to delay visa process.

Is there any chance of visa numbers getting wasted?

Agree, economy is bad but not in all fields! So we should wait and see what FY2011Q3 PERM disclosure data has to offer later this month!

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

My PD is Sept 06.My 485 got filed on Jun 30th.When do you think I would get greened?

Thanks

Almost 100% that you will get greened by the end of the year.

Is there a way to figure out application count between two custom dates? like from April-15-2007 to May-18-2007

You can spread the inventory numbers proportionately over the month and get a guesstimate. Or easier go to immigration road dot com. (PS I have no affiliation to them I just use their interface a lot)

I am new to this forum. "TK" thanks for the thread and extensive quantitative analysis.
My question is given the current employment conditions in US and pathetic economic recovery do qualitative factors impact the dates. When economy as a whole adds 15,000 or less jobs (130ish million workers) is it fair to assume that there are top level instructions to delay visa process.

Is there any chance of visa numbers getting wasted?

Unfortunately the spillover will not go over a certain threshold, we should all accept it that it was applied much earlier this year. We have probably seen 28K spillover applied already so have kind of exceeded last year even with a lower cap.

Teddy,
Based on 10-01-2010 inventory (EB2IC) and August'11 visa bulletin PD movement, EB2IC usage is almost at your 30K mark. If you add porting numbers we are already at or above 33K for FY2011!

Veni that’s a great catch. I have always assumed porting to be 6K and the rest of the movement was calibrated by VB v/s inventory. Truly I attributed only 3K which is India regular cap to porting but that leaves another 3K. So I should add atleast 3K to the consumption. So the corrected figures would be 31K have been allocated till the Aug bulletin and only 2K more to go.

[Honda]

Almost 100% that you will get greened by the end of the year.



You can spread the inventory numbers proportionately over the month and get a guesstimate. Or easier go to immigration road dot com. (PS I have no affiliation to them I just use their interface a lot)



Unfortunately the spillover will not go over a certain threshold, we should all accept it that it was applied much earlier this year. We have probably seen 28K spillover applied already so have kind of exceeded last year even with a lower cap.



Veni that’s a great catch. I have always assumed porting to be 6K and the rest of the movement was calibrated by VB v/s inventory. Truly I attributed only 3K which is India regular cap to porting but that leaves another 3K. So I should add atleast 3K to the consumption. So the corrected figures would be 31K have been allocated till the Aug bulletin and only 2K more to go.

Teddy you are rock. I really appreciated all your comments.

[TeddyKoochu]

RSM1444 SVS, Dev78, Chirukatti,
Thanks guys, ideally we should just ignore such messages and move on. Their objective is to disrupt our discussion more than anything. To keep our blog clean I have cleaned all the posts including your responses to the same, I hope you are all fine with that. I sent you a private message explaining, thanks for your support and participation. Unfortunately I have to delete all messages to be consistent and keep or blog clean.

[ubdvit]

TK, others: I have been reading this thread for a few weeks now -- you guys are doing a great job.

For a relative noob like myself, is there any place where we can read up on the math for your analysis? What are the rules for USCIS and DOS? What are the acronyms -- SOFAD, PWMB etc?

Thanks.

[r1r1r1]

TK, others: I have been reading this thread for a few weeks now -- you guys are doing a great job.

For a relative noob like myself, is there any place where we can read up on the math for your analysis? What are the rules for USCIS and DOS? What are the acronyms -- SOFAD, PWMB etc?

Thanks.

Please read the First Post of this thread....You will be able to find the answer for your question ("What are the acronyms -- SOFAD, PWMB etc?")

[smuggymba]

I was hoping date will advance to Nov 2007 since people with that PD got first set of email notices from NVC in early May. Later towards end of May people with up to Q1 2008 PD got emails so my guess was those people may get interview in Sep 2011.

Seems like demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 has gone up so DOS is holding on allocating visas to EB2 IC. As I have said USCIS is driving factor in employment based category.

DOS thought there will be huge SOFAD and may told NVC to start preparing cases for CP. But USCIS changed their game. Still we have one month. If USCIS shows less demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW next months we can see more movement and NVC cases may get interview date Otherwise NVC will process those cases in background and hold on them until next year.

I personally don't believe any movement possible start from Oct with 250 visas a months supply.


Looks what DOS has said in June bulletin :

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. ---- > They know USCIS can come up with any demand and can change DOS's Plan.

Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011. ------ > I think DOS was planing to move date to Q1 2008 in Aug 2011 and Retro back to Sep 2011."

Infy is applying EB1 for Sr Consultants and Analysts - I have already written many times and will complain about these people. Is USCIS stupid to give EB1 GC to Sr Consultant even when they already have a B1 lawsuit. Crazy stuff.

[kate123]

It would be very interesting to see how EB2C dates willl be moved once the EB2 china's inventory is 0 or close to 0. At present EB2C has about 4200 pending cases. Out of 4200 about 1000 cases will be cleared in August/2011, which brings total to 3200. Also, assuming a minimum of 500 visas will be available for EB2C in September/2011 which reduces total to 2700 applications... Starting FY2012, china will get 2800 visas that will pretty much wipe the entire inventory.

However, if 2800 visas are distributed in four quarters, then we wont know immediately how EB2C dates will move...

Did I miss something? Don't you think EB2C movements will provide some insight?

[aarora1979]

There is a chance in an optimistic scenario till the end of Mar 2008 which matches the NVC notices; however it may not be mandatory that the dates reach that level by Sep 2011 we may fall short by a few days to a quarter.

Teddy - I have PD of Aug 14 2007. Do you think I will b able to file with Aug 11 bulletin?

Thanks for your help.

[frustratingGC]

Aug bulletin is already out...you mean Sep?
Teddy - I have PD of Aug 14 2007. Do you think I will b able to file with Aug 11 bulletin?

Thanks for your help.

[TeddyKoochu]

It would be very interesting to see how EB2C dates willl be moved once the EB2 china's inventory is 0 or close to 0. At present EB2C has about 4200 pending cases. Out of 4200 about 1000 cases will be cleared in August/2011, which brings total to 3200. Also, assuming a minimum of 500 visas will be available for EB2C in September/2011 which reduces total to 2700 applications... Starting FY2012, china will get 2800 visas that will pretty much wipe the entire inventory.

However, if 2800 visas are distributed in four quarters, then we wont know immediately how EB2C dates will move...

Did I miss something? Don't you think EB2C movements will provide some insight?

This will be definitely interesting to watch. The September bulletin will not see great movement as not much SOFAD is left we may move to the range of 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007. However if the China demand is below 2800 it could be interesting to see what happens, last year as well China dates kept moving while India was static. technically 90% of the cap for retrogressed countries is supposed to be allocated in the first 3 quarters.

Teddy - I have PD of Aug 14 2007. Do you think I will b able to file with Aug 11 bulletin?

Thanks for your help.

I believe you meant 2012, there is a 100% chance for that.

[frustratingGC]

is there any way to know the exact number eb1 filed by CTS, Infy, Wipro. With this data, we can put more or less effort to stop this..
Infy is applying EB1 for Sr Consultants and Analysts - I have already written many times and will complain about these people. Is USCIS stupid to give EB1 GC to Sr Consultant even when they already have a B1 lawsuit. Crazy stuff.

[TeddyKoochu]

is there any way to know the exact number eb1 filed by CTS, Infy, Wipro. With this data, we can put more or less effort to stop this..

This issue has been discussed several times. While we should not condone fraud I believe that this is more of a loophole that is being exploited successfully. EB1C should be reserved for the best probably anyone with less than 50-100 reports should not qualify. However the requirement is to just provide an org chart the numbers is not important to it’s a qualitative criterion.
Now coming to numbers EB1 India used 6K last year 50% is EB1 C which makes it 3K. Now overall EB1C consumed 20K last year ~ 15K of that excluding China comes from ROW countries, UK and Canada are top consumers. This year we have seen huge spillover from EB1 it could not have been possible without contribution from EB1C. So this perceived misuse may not be costing more than 2000 visas a year never the less we must not condone any misuse because many deserving people are suffering due to this.

[stemcell]

Teddy,

Pardon me for not going into the thread....or the data on perm filings etc. According to couple of forums there will be more demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW next year. Assuming thats the case, how much is the demand and will there be any spill over at all next year, i mean 2012 ?

Not sure if i was overly optimistic before the Aug VB or overly pessimist now...but i want to come back to reality and the math may help me to decide what to expect next year....
Appreciate what all you are doing here....

[Mr. Brown]

True.

I am beginning to think that a country is only as good as it's weakest and most ignored agency which is most likely, immigration.

US immigration system sucks, no transparency, no flexibility. not much different than Indian government offices.

[Mr. Brown]

I am doing the same but also mentally preparing myself to go back if required.

While external factors do play a role, it is mostly in our head :-)

Now that I am here, having spent a big chunk of my life, now with a couple of kids and the responsibilities that come with, there isn't much choice but to hang in there and see this through. As Rocky says 'It ain't over, till it's over'!!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Pardon me for not going into the thread....or the data on perm filings etc. According to couple of forums there will be more demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW next year. Assuming thats the case, how much is the demand and will there be any spill over at all next year, i mean 2012 ?

Not sure if i was overly optimistic before the Aug VB or overly pessimist now...but i want to come back to reality and the math may help me to decide what to expect next year....
Appreciate what all you are doing here....

I understand what you are saying the Aug bulletin has been a great leveler. If the Sep VB stops at say 01-MAY-2007. The we are looking at the following demand upto Aug 2007 a) Preadjudicated cases - 6K b) PWMB - 4K. Then there will be 6K of porting, so effectively only 14K more cases can be approved the extra intake maybe more. If its only going to be 14K more to make it 30K SOFAD then the dates can move maximum to end of 2007 for issuance of GC. However if SOFAD comes down to only 20K then we will be stuck at just Sep - Oct 2007 for GC issuance purpose. Lets wait and watch for the September bulletin to get the exact resting point. This scenario cannot be ruled out because the Kazarian memo has slowed EB1 and EB2 approvals, the volume has not come down, so if these cases do not see a denial then they will get approved thereby potentially reducing the SOFAD.

[stemcell]

I am doing the same but also mentally preparing myself to go back if required.

While external factors do play a role, it is mostly in our head :-)

Brown,

I can understand your frustration as i am in the similar boat and around the same PD.....i am sure a lot of others are in the same boat and some are more worse off...
An EAD for myself and my wife would have eased a lot of pain at least for me.......I was so much better when the PD was May 06, at least i knew i had no chance in the near future ...now its just killing me.....

[weasley]

We cannot really predict what logic USCIS is using. Whatever you guys have already achieved in this prediction game is great. If you see the May bulletin, we all expected it to move a lot (Due to CO's statement reported in lawer's website). But it just moved few weeks and we were all upset. But in June and July, movement was big. May be USCIS has too many cases to approve now and so did not want to move the dates fast in Aug. I am not suggesting there will be big movement in next bulletin. But atleast 2-3 months movement still a possibility.

[stemcell]

I understand what you are saying the Aug bulletin has been a great leveler. If the Sep VB stops at say 01-MAY-2007. The we are looking at the following demand upto Aug 2007 a) Preadjudicated cases - 6K b) PWMB - 4K. Then there will be 6K of porting, so effectively only 14K more cases can be approved the extra intake maybe more. If its only going to be 14K more to make it 30K SOFAD then the dates can move maximum to end of 2007 for issuance of GC. However if SOFAD comes down to only 20K then we will be stuck at just Sep - Oct 2007 for GC issuance purpose. Lets wait and watch for the September bulletin to get the exact resting point. This scenario cannot be ruled out because the Kazarian memo has slowed EB1 and EB2 approvals, the volume has not come down, so if these cases do not see a denial then they will get approved thereby potentially reducing the SOFAD.

Thanks man, i guess i just have to move on with my life....and go with the flow....
Thanks again.

[sniffing]

Sorry i know this is not relevant to this thread but just want to make quick note about Mumbai...check the news.........

[snathan]

Sorry i know this is not relevant to this thread but just want to make quick note about Mumbai...check the news.........

There is no value for life in India...there is no accountability and people forget everything easily.

so I dont take it serious/care, though I feel sorry for the victims. R.I.P

[royu]

If you saying about Perm data , here is the query for country India . This query will work with Permdata2007. For others this needs small change. Assuming about 70% are Eb2, u can find number of EB2 I and EB3 I .

SELECT year, month, count(*)
FROM (SELECT left(right(left([case_no],7),5),2) AS [Year], IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-31<=0,1,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-59<=0,2,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-90<=0,3,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-120<=0,4,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-151<=0,5,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-180<=0,6,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-211<=0,7,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-242<=0,8,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-270<=0,9,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-301<=0,10,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-331<=0,11,12))))))))))) AS [month], right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3), right(left([case_no],7),5), A.*
FROM perm_fy2007_data AS A
WHERE ([case_status]='CERTIFIED' Or [case_status]='CERTIFIED-EXPIRED') AND [COUNTRY_of_citzenship]='INDIA'
And ( ( left(right(left([case_no],7),5),2)='07' And right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)>104 And right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3) < 138 ) )
ORDER BY left(right(left([case_no],7),5),2), IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-31<=0,1,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-59<=0,2,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-90<=0,3,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-120<=0,4,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-151<=0,5,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-180<=0,6,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-211<=0,7,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-242<=0,8,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-270<=0,9,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-301<=0,10,IIf(right(right(left([case_no],7),5),3)-331<=0,11,12)))))))))))
) AS [%$##@_Alias]
GROUP BY year, month;

Perm data 2007 :
============
year month count
07 4 993
07 5 1062
==========
Perm data 2008
===========
year month count
07 4 33
07 5 55
================
Perm data 2009
year month count
07 4 17
07 5 25
================
Perm data 2010
year month Count
07 4 1
07 5 5
---------------------------------------------

[maximus777]

Sorry i know this is not relevant to this thread but just want to make quick note about Mumbai...check the news.........

Not again!!! :mad:

This is one of the main reasons people migrate in hordes out of India to north America, western Europe and Australia. The choice is to wait for 10 years for a GC or get blown to bits on my way back home from work?!? Seems like a no brainer to me! :mad:

[manchala]

OK. Let us know when you are leaving, we will come to airport and bid you farewell. :p

seriously man, if this is hell, then you don't know what hell is

Yeah look at me man and friend of mine. One of my friend applied in 2008 and his labor got rejected and he applied again in 2011 now his priority date is 2011. I am with Sep 08 priority and lot of other issues at work. Take is easy dude everything happens for a reason.

[Leo07]

August VB is already released, with dates Apr 15 07 for Eb2. If you are referring to VB that would come in August, which will be September's VB, then chances have slimmed down since the last VB release.

Good Luck!
Teddy - I have PD of Aug 14 2007. Do you think I will b able to file with Aug 11 bulletin?

Thanks for your help.

[dassumi]

Teddy - Seems like we were all surprised with the EB3I movement of a month, we typically see about 7 to 9 days. Any thoughts on why this happened and what is in store for the Sep bulletin?

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

[The7zen]

Teddy - Seems like we were all surprised with the EB3I movement of a month, we typically see about 7 to 9 days. Any thoughts on why this happened and what is in store for the Sep bulletin?

@Teddy,
Along the same lines, I am EB3-I with Oct 02 PD, should I look into porting at this point ?
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Thanks

[Honda]

@Teddy,
Along the same lines, I am EB3-I with Oct 02 PD, should I look into porting at this point ?
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Thanks

I spoke to my company lawyer,

As per his knowledge EB3 india is not moving fast. You need wait for couple of months your case becomes current.

[pappu]

@Teddy,
Along the same lines, I am EB3-I with Oct 02 PD, should I look into porting at this point ?
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Thanks

You should have considered porting many years ago. I think you are now pretty close. Will an employer be willing to do it under these circumstances. 01JUN02 to OCT02 is not big a gap considering other EB3s with 2004 and beyond PDs. These guys have to wait more than a couple of years. Maybe decades.
Hope for EB3 is advocacy. If we can get any relief like recapture, country limits or STEM exemption or Dependent Exemption... it could mean a lot of EB3. People in EB3 might be really worried if they need a green card.

[pappu]

I spoke to my company lawyer,

As per his knowledge EB3 india is not moving fast. You need wait for couple of months your case becomes current.

Can you get the company lawyer to give you in writing that in a couple of months EB3 I OCT PD will become current? :D

I think this is just another speculation without any calculations or facts.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - Seems like we were all surprised with the EB3I movement of a month, we typically see about 7 to 9 days. Any thoughts on why this happened and what is in store for the Sep bulletin?

The movement in terms of numbers was 660. This is almost like the quarterly allocation for EB3-I. Now looks like this was done to close out the year to ensure that EB3-I gets its fair allocation and the numbers get utilized. EB3-I movement this year has been quite consistent so I don't believe that there maybe too much of movement in September, we may have either no movement or a week. I think things are coming close for you all the best, you maybe current in 3-6 months.

@Teddy,
Along the same lines, I am EB3-I with Oct 02 PD, should I look into porting at this point ?
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Thanks

This is where EB3-I gets into heavy density. If your PD is the 1st then 4376 folks ahead of you by the June Inventory and if its 31st October then 4994 ahead of you. Now these dates will take anywhere from 1 year 3 months to 1 year 6 months to be current. So porting may get you your GC sooner. EB3-I density in early 2002 is less than in the later half. Good Luck.

[pappu]

This is where EB3-I gets into heavy density. If your PD is the 1st then 4376 folks ahead of you by the June Inventory and if its 31st October then 4994 ahead of you. Now these dates will take anywhere from 1 year 3 months to 1 year 6 months to be current. So porting may get you your GC sooner. EB3-I density in early 2002 is less than in the later half. Good Luck.

In my opinion it takes about a year to do the whole labor and I140 process. So by the time he ports, the date maybe current. If for any reason the I140 does approval does not show ported date, another additional work will be needed to link existing I485. So for someone with OCT02 PD it is too late (8 year late) to think about porting.

[TeddyKoochu]

In my opinion it takes about a year to do the whole labor and I140 process. So by the time he ports, the date maybe current. If for any reason the I140 does approval does not show ported date, another additional work will be needed to link existing I485. So for someone with OCT02 PD it is too late (8 year late) to think about porting.

That’s correct Pappu most 2002 friends are a late. It would make a difference of 6 - 9 months (Depending on where the PD is in 2002), the movement will significantly slow down for EB3 when the later part of 2002 is hit. Its really upto The7zen to take the call. Sometimes getting out of the loop even a few months earlier is priceless.

[jindhal]

That’s correct Pappu most 2002 friends are a late. It would make a difference of 6 - 9 months (Depending on where the PD is in 2002), the movement will significantly slow down for EB3 when the later part of 2002 is hit. Its really upto The7zen to take the call. Sometimes getting out of the loop even a few months earlier is priceless.

If there are other people porting with priority dates close to or earlier than his date, it will decrease the number of people as well. This will be a positive side effect that might make his date current earlier than expected.

[The7zen]

@Teddy and Pappu,
Thanks much for your valuable input.
Based on this I will take decision to move forward with porting or not.

[dassumi]

Thank you Teddy.

The movement in terms of numbers was 660. This is almost like the quarterly allocation for EB3-I. Now looks like this was done to close out the year to ensure that EB3-I gets its fair allocation and the numbers get utilized. EB3-I movement this year has been quite consistent so I don't believe that there maybe too much of movement in September, we may have either no movement or a week. I think things are coming close for you all the best, you maybe current in 3-6 months.



This is where EB3-I gets into heavy density. If your PD is the 1st then 4376 folks ahead of you by the June Inventory and if its 31st October then 4994 ahead of you. Now these dates will take anywhere from 1 year 3 months to 1 year 6 months to be current. So porting may get you your GC sooner. EB3-I density in early 2002 is less than in the later half. Good Luck.

[vikki_s]

Am a noob who started this whole GC process in 09. I read through these threads, and am trying to figure out how these yearly quotas work. Particularly, when the USCIS year ends in Sept end, what happens to the numbers that have been currently allocated to China/India due to SOFAD? Do we lose those since the new year kicks in (and start afresh in the new FY), or do we retain those numbers?

[vikki_s]

I am assuming here that USCIS wouldnt be able to actually process all those 485s for which visa numbers are available, before the end of the FY. Only then would my question be relevant.
Thanks!!

Am a noob who started this whole GC process in 09. I read through these threads, and am trying to figure out how these yearly quotas work. Particularly, when the USCIS year ends in Sept end, what happens to the numbers that have been currently allocated to China/India due to SOFAD? Do we lose those since the new year kicks in (and start afresh in the new FY), or do we retain those numbers?

[Leo07]

vikki,

If CIS is not able to close enough cases to consume available visas(SOFAD or otherwise), those VISAS go wasted. Come october, CIS will start from zero, unless there is FB spill over, which is unlikely this year.

In the last 2-3 years DOS+CIS have coordinated well to NOT waste visas. Plus, with so many Pre-Adjudicated 485's already pending, wastage is very much unlikely.


BTW, CIS had wasted visas in the past. Recapturing those visas is one of the item that IV is fighting for.

Best!

I am assuming here that USCIS wouldnt be able to actually process all those 485s for which visa numbers are available, before the end of the FY. Only then would my question be relevant.
Thanks!!

[vikki_s]

Thanks so much Leo07!!

vikki,

If CIS is not able to close enough cases to consume available visas(SOFAD or otherwise), those VISAS go wasted. Come october, CIS will start from zero, unless there is FB spill over, which is unlikely this year.

In the last 2-3 years DOS+CIS have coordinated well to NOT waste visas. Plus, with so many Pre-Adjudicated 485's already pending, wastage is very much unlikely.


BTW, CIS had wasted visas in the past. Recapturing those visas is one of the item that IV is fighting for.

Best!

[tnayar78]

Hi Moonrah,

I have'nt paid fee's yet. I am waiting to see what happens in Aug bulletin. If dates move to Nov, 2007 in aug bulletin, I will wait to see if my date become current in Sep bulletin and if not then I will pay the fee and get the process started. Will keep everybody posted.
Hi Vick, as aug bulletin moved to april 15 2007 what have you decided are you planning to go for CP or AOS.
Any news regarding NVC receipts (more receipts :)) for 2008 PDS it would be helpful in analyzing date movement for next year

[aarora1979]

Sorry I meant Sep 11 Bulletin.

[aarora1979]

This will be definitely interesting to watch. The September bulletin will not see great movement as not much SOFAD is left we may move to the range of 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007. However if the China demand is below 2800 it could be interesting to see what happens, last year as well China dates kept moving while India was static. technically 90% of the cap for retrogressed countries is supposed to be allocated in the first 3 quarters.



I believe you meant 2012, there is a 100% chance for that.

Sorry, I meant Sep 11 Bulletin.
Thanks for ur help!

[cvsravan]

Hi Teddy,

My priority date is May 2010, I know its too early to talk about it, but when do you think I might get a chance to file my 485. I have some career opportunities that I would like to pursue, but I do not want to put my GC process in jeopardy just in case my PD becomes current.

Thanks

[cvsravan]

btw.. this is in EB2 Category

[pd052009]

btw.. this is in EB2 Category

Could you update your profile with those details?

[TeddyKoochu]

Sorry, I meant Sep 11 Bulletin.
Thanks for ur help!

The Sep 2011 bulletin should hit May if you ae say 1st May thenn its 100% however if its 31st May its only 25%. All the best it will be very close.

Hi Teddy,

My priority date is May 2010, I know its too early to talk about it, but when do you think I might get a chance to file my 485. I have some career opportunities that I would like to pursue, but I do not want to put my GC process in jeopardy just in case my PD becomes current.

Thanks

I think easily you are 3-4 years away from 485 filing, there is almost like a thumb rule of 5 years. Make sure that you can retain the date.

[TeddyKoochu]

5 years :o ... My PD is Jan 2009, so Jan 2014, still 2.5 years left... hopefull this time time fly's fast.... Jai Mata Di

Thats almost like a minimum :), look at my case looks it will be 5 years in 2012 for me just to file 485 :).

[weasley]

Got my green card and welcome notice today. It was approved on 7/8/11. No email/sms notification. I did not open SR or called USCIS or got Infopass.

NSC
PD:10/30/2006
RD:09/10/2007
LUD:09/10/2010

Same employee since 2006, I relocated on 04/11 and have no plans to change. Filed AR11 as soon as I relocated. I only had concern of USCIS having correct address in their files. Seems they had it .

[whereismygclost]

congrats weasley!!

[Rb_newsletter]

Thats almost like a minimum :), look at my case looks it will be 5 years in 2012 for me just to file 485 :).

Out of 5 years 3 years had low demand due to recession. Think if the economy was doing good and there were lots of demand.

[pod1]

Hello Everyone,

I applied for I-485/I-140 on June 1st and got the finger printing date of 7/25. I am wondering how long does it take for EAD and green card after finger printing?

Thanks.

[cvsravan]

Thanks guys!

[mk26]

Looks like USCIS is not in hurry to build pipeline for next intake I guess they can do next year anytime....what do you say experts?

[chikna]

nm

[chikna]

Looks like USCIS is not in hurry to build pipeline for next intake I guess they can do next year anytime....what do you say experts?

They have to clear all applications prior to 2007. Lot of applications to process. Since there are fewer applicants who are filing right now, I wonder how do they generate income to pay employees?

[thankgod]

Thats almost like a minimum :), look at my case looks it will be 5 years in 2012 for me just to file 485 :).

Teddy,

I am thinking it may be from 3 to 3.5 years.

All the cases filed in 2007 and before are different. But by looking at the spill over and dates movement, EB2 guys will be able to file their cases PD + 3 .5 years.

And we have to consider the slow rate of Perm filings after 2008.

What do you say. Open for comments.

[krishmunn]

Teddy,

I am thinking it may be from 3 to 3.5 years.

All the cases filed in 2007 and before are different. But by looking at the spill over and dates movement, EB2 guys will be able to file their cases PD + 3 .5 years.

And we have to consider the slow rate of Perm filings after 2008.

What do you say. Open for comments.

Already completed 3 years. No light in sight. May be next July

[pd052011]

Teddy,

I am thinking it may be from 3 to 3.5 years.

All the cases filed in 2007 and before are different. But by looking at the spill over and dates movement, EB2 guys will be able to file their cases PD + 3 .5 years.

And we have to consider the slow rate of Perm filings after 2008.

What do you say. Open for comments.


My H1B expires in December 2013. If I am unable to file I-485, what happens then? I am still awaiting approval on my PERM (fingers crossed)..the suspense is maddening :eek:

[iyer]

Is there a database that shows how many I-140s approved since July 2007 in EB2 - I category?

[Mr. Brown]

My H1B expires in December 2013. If I am unable to file I-485, what happens then? I am still awaiting approval on my PERM (fingers crossed)..the suspense is maddening :eek:

Dec. 2013 is almost 2.5 years away. If I was in your position and I couldn't get a PERM approved in 2.5 years I'd wrap it up and go back home or to a proper 1st world country where laws and procedures help get "stuff" done faster.

In all honesty, unless there is something really wrong with your case or with your luck it's almost impossible to keep PERM going on for 2.5+ years ... so chill!

[Mr. Brown]

Thats almost like a minimum :), look at my case looks it will be 5 years in 2012 for me just to file 485 :).

Same here ... then again when I started the process in 2007, I kinda assumed (based on a few close friend and family experiences) that it would take 5 years to get an EAD and a max of 7 to get GC.

[pd052011]

Dec. 2013 is almost 2.5 years away. If I was in your position and I couldn't get a PERM approved in 2.5 years I'd wrap it up and go back home or to a proper 1st world country where laws and procedures help get "stuff" done faster.

In all honesty, unless there is something really wrong with your case or with your luck it's almost impossible to keep PERM going on for 2.5+ years ... so chill!

Thanks Mr. Brown for the insight. I am confident about the PERM (I think :D). I have MS+4 yrs in Information Security and work for an MNC. I was asking about the I-485 stage. If PD doesnt become current, what are the options for someone who has PERM and I-140 approved and whose H1B is about to expire in 2013? I am a newbie to this so pardon me if the questions seem infuriatingly ignorant :o

[vidyas_m]

My H1B expires in December 2013. If I am unable to file I-485, what happens then? I am still awaiting approval on my PERM (fingers crossed)..the suspense is maddening :eek:

Currently, PERM applications are taking about 2-3 months on average for approval. You probably already know that upon the approval of I-140, you can renew H1-B in 3 year increments indefinitely.

So, there is really nothing to worry about. If there really is some problem with your current PERM application and it doesn't get approved for some reason, you can always move to a different company and file a new PERM there.

[pd052011]

Currently, PERM applications are taking about 2-3 months on average for approval. You probably already know that upon the approval of I-140, you can renew H1-B in 3 year increments indefinitely.

So, there is really nothing to worry about. If there really is some problem with your current PERM application and it doesn't get approved for some reason, you can always move to a different company and file a new PERM there.

Thank you. That is quite a comforting response.

[Mr. Brown]

Thanks Mr. Brown for the insight. I am confident about the PERM (I think :D). I have MS+4 yrs in Information Security and work for an MNC. I was asking about the I-485 stage. If PD doesnt become current, what are the options for someone who has PERM and I-140 approved and whose H1B is about to expire in 2013? I am a newbie to this so pardon me if the questions seem infuriatingly ignorant :o

No problem!

After your 6 years of H1 are up and your PD is not current

With an approved PERM you get H1 extensions in 1 yr increments
With an approved I-140 you get H1 extensions in 3 yr increments

[thankgod]

Do you mean 3 to 3.5 years for people who's PD is after 2007 ?

Yes, I would say people who filed PERM from Mid of 2008.

This is just my guess. I know our Guestimates are not 100 % accurate. If they are 100%, we can release visa bulletins before USCIS does.

[thankgod]

Any how Lets wait for the big movement in September visa bulletin for both EB2 and EB3 friends.

Since it is the end of the fiscal year and it make sense to expect big jump in September Visa Bulletin.

I know we are doing some predictions / calculations about bulletins, But we never know about USCIS surprises.

Hope for the BEST and I am not prepared for the worst. Because I am optimistic.

[kate123]

already completed 3.5 years :D

Teddy,

I am thinking it may be from 3 to 3.5 years.

All the cases filed in 2007 and before are different. But by looking at the spill over and dates movement, EB2 guys will be able to file their cases PD + 3 .5 years.

And we have to consider the slow rate of Perm filings after 2008.

What do you say. Open for comments.

[thankgod]

already completed 3.5 years :D

The EB2 movement started just 3 months back . Hold on... Good months are in near future.

[forever_waiting]

So the other "prediction" forums are abuzz with this info from the chinese where they claim to have heard from charles oppenheim (as they have claimed in the past...with several incorrect pieces of information).
Rumor being spread is that 19K or so spillover is still left over for the entire EB category.

[chikna]

Some of you guys are really lucky. I am here 13 years and nowhere near to that dream. Some more bad news. My H1B is expiring in November. I asked my employer to file an extension in June. Just got a call to let me know that my LCA is denied. They told me "don't worry we are re-applying and it will be approved next week." :mad:

[mk26]

Some of you guys are really lucky. I am here 13 years and nowhere near to that dream. Some more bad news. My H1B is expiring in November. I asked my employer to file an extension in June. Just got a call to let me know that my LCA is denied. They told me "don't worry we are re-applying and it will be approved next week." :mad:
what was the reason for LCA denial can you please share? mine h1 also expiring I am taking a chance to wait untill sep bulletin and ask employer to file for extension I guess once I file I485 I can stay in the country even if my lca/h1 get denied.

[TeddyKoochu]

There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the information has come out of a FOIA request.

ͬѧÃÇ£¬ÓÖÈ̲»×¡´òÁ˸öOµÄµç»°¡£ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com) (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
NIUÕþ¸®¹«¹Ø×é»ñÈ¡ÉóÅúÊý¾ÝÈ¡µÃ½øÕ¹ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com) (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. Another coincidence is 33K is the exact SOFAD that we calculated as well.

2) 19K more numbers available – This part is disputed, the FOIA request outcome says that 19K numbers are available post Aug. Most of the posters believe that 19K is available for September itself if this is true (Personally Iam not optimistic about it) then we could see another 8-10K SOFAD in September for EB2 I/C and this can easily push the dates to the Jul / Aug 2007 range. Realistically if these numbers are for Aug and Sep then we would see only 2-3K additional SOFAD which puts the dates between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

[hope_4_best]

Any how Lets wait for the big movement in September visa bulletin for both EB2 and EB3 friends.

Since it is the end of the fiscal year and it make sense to expect big jump in September Visa Bulletin.

I know we are doing some predictions / calculations about bulletins, But we never know about USCIS surprises.

Hope for the BEST and I am not prepared for the worst. Because I am optimistic.

Can you please explain the logic behind hoping for a big movement for EB3?
Just curious...

[iyer]

My guess is EB2 would get current in the next 12 months. Currently the cut-off dates are determined based on pending I-485 applications. These would be wiped out very soon. USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'. In the absence of this data, they got make EB2 current as soon all pending I485's are cleared (a similar situation to July 2007 fiasco). After they make this current, they would be able to measure all I485's received, and then the dates would retrogress.

[Rb_newsletter]

USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'.

With respect to approving I485 applications USCIS seems to operate efficiently in the past 2 years. So I assume they might have already crunched I140 approved numbers.

People in forums are speculating another july-2007 fiasco for the past 1+ years. But after seeing smooth PD movements in past several visa bulletin, I don't expect any fiasco.

[gc_peshwa]

There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the information has come out of a FOIA request.

ͬѧÃÇ£¬ÓÖÈ̲»×¡´òÁ˸öOµÄµç»°¡£ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com) (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
NIUÕþ¸®¹«¹Ø×é»ñÈ¡ÉóÅúÊý¾ÝÈ¡µÃ½øÕ¹ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com) (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. Another coincidence is 33K is the exact SOFAD that we calculated as well.

2) 19K more numbers available – This part is disputed, the FOIA request outcome says that 19K numbers are available post Aug. Most of the posters believe that 19K is available for September itself if this is true (Personally Iam not optimistic about it) then we could see another 8-10K SOFAD in September for EB2 I/C and this can easily push the dates to the Jul / Aug 2007 range. Realistically if these numbers are for Aug and Sep then we would see only 2-3K additional SOFAD which puts the dates between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.
Thanks TQ for posting the info.
What I am wondering is "How did the Chinese guys get the FOIA request on Visa Utilization responded so quickly from the agencies"? :confused:
Why did they feel like checking the visa utilization just now? Why wasnt it done earlier? To me this kind of rumour-mongering sounds more like gimmick to pull in the visitors to generate Ad-revenue.
There might not be many visas remaining, just ~5K at max including all SOFAD and what not.
I would love to be proven wrong.:D

[tampacoolie]

Thanks Mr. Brown for the insight. I am confident about the PERM (I think :D). I have MS+4 yrs in Information Security and work for an MNC. I was asking about the I-485 stage. If PD doesnt become current, what are the options for someone who has PERM and I-140 approved and whose H1B is about to expire in 2013? I am a newbie to this so pardon me if the questions seem infuriatingly ignorant :o


If you have approved I-140, then you will have 3 year extension eligible on H1B under AC21.

[rodnyb]

From my Chinese friend, it seems O is clear about the need for new take-in (letter below)
I was wondering how they can access O, and I was told several guys on Chinese forum have his direct line and email :) I am asking for EB2 info and will update. Have a great weekend

==========
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

[gc_on_demand]

Thanks TQ for posting the info.
What I am wondering is "How did the Chinese guys get the FOIA request on Visa Utilization responded so quickly from the agencies"? :confused:
Why did they feel like checking the visa utilization just now? Why wasnt it done earlier? To me this kind of rumour-mongering sounds more like gimmick to pull in the visitors to generate Ad-revenue.
There might not be many visas remaining, just ~5K at max including all SOFAD and what not.
I would love to be proven wrong.:D

DOS mostly manages family based petition ( USCIS share is very less) and I have n't got any response for my FOIA filled a year ago. I wonder how did they get it so early ? Also agree with Teddy that 19k might be for August / Sep. I think anything is possible for Sep bulletin and all those sites try to generate traffic in these days.

[snathan]

DOS mostly manages family based petition ( USCIS share is very less) and I have n't got any response for my FOIA filled a year ago. I wonder how did they get it so early ? Also agree with Teddy that 19k might be for August / Sep. I think anything is possible for Sep bulletin and all those sites try to generate traffic in these days.

Thats the only valid reason...

[gc_peshwa]

From my Chinese friend, it seems O is clear about the need for new take-in (letter below)
I was wondering how they can access O, and I was told several guys on Chinese forum have his direct line and email :) I am asking for EB2 info and will update. Have a great weekend

==========
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.
Man...looks like Google Ad-sense is the most heavily used product during Visa Bulletin "prediction" times.
With each new "translated" post that I come across, a sense of disbelief is crawling over my hapless mind.
Either the Chinese guys are lying through their teeth or Charlie O is a very "open" personality.
I wonder why the other usually 'well informed folks' (AILA) are not able to extract the same information from CO?:confused:
We'll find out next month if these 'Chinese' sources are more reliable than other 'Made In China' stuff :D (no offense intended!)

[h1_b_visa_holder]

My guess is EB2 would get current in the next 12 months. Currently the cut-off dates are determined based on pending I-485 applications. These would be wiped out very soon. USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'. In the absence of this data, they got make EB2 current as soon all pending I485's are cleared (a similar situation to July 2007 fiasco). After they make this current, they would be able to measure all I485's received, and then the dates would retrogress.

I hope that happens. That is the BIG Question. Will they make it C, or just move it by a few months to get the demand and then move the dates forward or retrogress

[easygoer]

Hi Gurus,

My brothers I-485 is filed under EB3 with cut-off date is Feb'03. He treid to convert to EB2 but got rejected. His son is now 19.5 years old. He could not file I-485 during 2007 as he was waiting for his labor filed in old way(not perm). Now he is worried whether he can file beofre his son completes the age of 21 years.

Can anyone say when his date for EB3 (Feb'03) will become current? Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Got my green card and welcome notice today. It was approved on 7/8/11. No email/sms notification. I did not open SR or called USCIS or got Infopass.

NSC
PD:10/30/2006
RD:09/10/2007
LUD:09/10/2010

Same employee since 2006, I relocated on 04/11 and have no plans to change. Filed AR11 as soon as I relocated. I only had concern of USCIS having correct address in their files. Seems they had it .

Many congratulations, enjoy your green life.

Out of 5 years 3 years had low demand due to recession. Think if the economy was doing good and there were lots of demand.

You are correct the situation can be much worse, right now are getting 30K SOFAD if things were to normalize we might start getting 10K SOFAD and it will really slow everything down. The likelihood of this happening in a year or two is less but we should move year by year only for all predictions and calculations.

Hello Everyone,

I applied for I-485/I-140 on June 1st and got the finger printing date of 7/25. I am wondering how long does it take for EAD and green card after finger printing?

Thanks.

EAD / AP you should get within 90 days of filing, hopefully your GC will come also by Oct. All the best.

Hello Everyone,

I applied for I-485/I-140 on June 1st and got the finger printing date of 7/25. I am wondering how long does it take for EAD and green card after finger printing?

Thanks.

After Jul 2007 ther are 80K EB2 I/C cases. There are roughly 3K cases from Aug 2007 to Sep 2008. This will be the tough one to cross. After late 2008 to till date the density is far less. All depends what kind of SOFAD we see, we should take it year by year only because we don’t know what factors would change.

Is there a database that shows how many I-140s approved since July 2007 in EB2 - I category?

You can look at the USCIS dashboard for I140.

[TeddyKoochu]

My guess is EB2 would get current in the next 12 months. Currently the cut-off dates are determined based on pending I-485 applications. These would be wiped out very soon. USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'. In the absence of this data, they got make EB2 current as soon all pending I485's are cleared (a similar situation to July 2007 fiasco). After they make this current, they would be able to measure all I485's received, and then the dates would retrogress.

There is another posting on the Chinese forum to suggest that they may not make th dats current but there will be gradual movement once the dates cross 15th Aug.

So the other "prediction" forums are abuzz with this info from the chinese where they claim to have heard from charles oppenheim (as they have claimed in the past...with several incorrect pieces of information).
Rumor being spread is that 19K or so spillover is still left over for the entire EB category.

Lets hope that this news is true. There are strong arguments either way whether the 19K is for Sep only or Aug + Sep.

Hi Gurus,

My brothers I-485 is filed under EB3 with cut-off date is Feb'03. He tried to convert to EB2 but got rejected. His son is now 19.5 years old. He could not file I-485 during 2007 as he was waiting for his labor filed in old way(not perm). Now he is worried whether he can file before his son completes the age of 21 years.

Can anyone say when his date for EB3 (Feb'03) will become current? Thanks

Its an unfortunate situation I assume for your elder brother. The latest demand data still showed 6400 cases for 2002. So it will take more than 2 years for your brother’s date to be current.

[TeddyKoochu]

So the other "prediction" forums are abuzz with this info from the chinese where they claim to have heard from charles oppenheim (as they have claimed in the past...with several incorrect pieces of information).
Rumor being spread is that 19K or so spillover is still left over for the entire EB category.

Thanks TQ for posting the info.
What I am wondering is "How did the Chinese guys get the FOIA request on Visa Utilization responded so quickly from the agencies"? :confused:
Why did they feel like checking the visa utilization just now? Why wasnt it done earlier? To me this kind of rumour-mongering sounds more like gimmick to pull in the visitors to generate Ad-revenue.
There might not be many visas remaining, just ~5K at max including all SOFAD and what not.
I would love to be proven wrong.:D

From my Chinese friend, it seems O is clear about the need for new take-in (letter below)
I was wondering how they can access O, and I was told several guys on Chinese forum have his direct line and email :) I am asking for EB2 info and will update. Have a great weekend

==========
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

DOS mostly manages family based petition ( USCIS share is very less) and I have n't got any response for my FOIA filled a year ago. I wonder how did they get it so early ? Also agree with Teddy that 19k might be for August / Sep. I think anything is possible for Sep bulletin and all those sites try to generate traffic in these days.

Thats the only valid reason...

Man...looks like Google Ad-sense is the most heavily used product during Visa Bulletin "prediction" times.
With each new "translated" post that I come across, a sense of disbelief is crawling over my hapless mind.
Either the Chinese guys are lying through their teeth or Charlie O is a very "open" personality.
I wonder why the other usually 'well informed folks' (AILA) are not able to extract the same information from CO?:confused:
We'll find out next month if these 'Chinese' sources are more reliable than other 'Made In China' stuff :D (no offense intended!)

Friends this is just my personal take whether India or Chinese it does not matter at the end of the day it is individuals and their families who are all stuck up. I just hope people post responsibly on all the forums because any information affects many lives, people getting relief at the end via GC is more important than which forum getting traffic. Let’s hope that the information they give is true because if it turns out to be true we will hit the 01-AUG-2007 line in the September bulletin almost for sure. I would urge all to post any news they hear from all forums based on their judgment if they feel it maybe accurate (There can be no guarantees) and it helps other readers.

[manchala]

Many congratulations, enjoy your green life.



You are correct the situation can be much worse, right now are getting 30K SOFAD if things were to normalize we might start getting 10K SOFAD and it will really slow everything down. The likelihood of this happening in a year or two is less but we should move year by year only for all predictions and calculations.



EAD / AP you should get within 90 days of filing, hopefully your GC will come also by Oct. All the best.



After Jul 2007 ther are 80K EB2 I/C cases. There are roughly 3K cases from Aug 2007 to Sep 2008. This will be the tough one to cross. After late 2008 to till date the density is far less. All depends what kind of SOFAD we see, we should take it year by year only because we don’t know what factors would change.



You can look at the USCIS dashboard for I140.

Hey TK,

Dashboard has a trend chart. It shows from may 09 only. Also it does not have country wise totals. How do we get the data for IC from June 07 to Sep 08?

thanks in advance

[TeddyKoochu]

Hey TK,

Dashboard has a trend chart. It shows from may 09 only. Also it does not have country wise totals. How do we get the data for IC from June 07 to Sep 08?

thanks in advance


If you look at the data it has the completions which are approvals + denials. Based on Perm data people have inferred that 50% is ROW and 50% is I/C. The within I/C 50% is EB2.

[manchala]

Is there a way to specify date range?? I didnt see any there.