EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[manchala]

Guys firstly congrats to all EB3-India friends who became current. I believe they are not able to approve many of the cases that are that old, probably EVL RFE's are being issued in many cases, so the best way is to push the dates forward to make more people eligible. But its very good news for EB3-India. I do not believe that people with PD's in this range are porting.

Hey TK,

Do you know what was the spillover for last few years??

thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Hey TK,

Do you know what was the spillover for last few years??

thanks

The trend is as follows.

2009 - India got 11K AFAIK so I +C is 14K.
2010 - 26.5K
2011 - 32K (27 is the reduction in demand data itself), 6K could be PWMB and porting.

[manchala]

The trend is as follows.

2009 - India got 11K AFAIK so I +C is 14K.
2010 - 26.5K
2011 - 32K (27 is the reduction in demand data itself), 6K could be PWMB and porting.

This looks strange. Market improved from 2009 to 2011. How come we got more spill over. Does this tell anything how it would be for 2012 and going forward??

[rakesh76]

Teddy

here is the prediction from other site. might data will help you to analyze 2012 movement.

http:///2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html

[adibhatla]

The above link isn't working.....posting another link

us-non-immigrant.blogspot.com2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html

[chikna]

The above link isn't working.....posting another link

us-non-immigrant.blogspot.com2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html

Your link doesn't work either.

[adibhatla]

Please copy paste onto your explorer...Sorry having trouble somehow.

[adibhatla]

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?



What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012?


Since now we know that EB2-India and China are stuck at 15th April 2007 for this fiscal year, we can try and estimate what we can expect for this category in FY 2012.


Eb2-India and China still need 8000 more visas for EB2-IC to cross PD 15 August 2007. This is calculated plainly from the currently released visible demand data, without including 'People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until 15 August 2007 cut-off date from September Visa bulletin cut-off date of 15 April 2007 are 8302. We firmly believe any PWMBs before July visa bulletin cut-off date of 08 March 2007 have good chance to get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.

So out of total PWMBs of 8,302 for EB2-IC until 15 August 2007, even if we assume that due to the economic recession and other unforeseen reasons, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 4,151. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July 2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 8,000 + 4,151 = 12,151.


Now we know as and when these PWMBs will become current and file for I-485 in order to become documentarily qualified, by that time we will be in Q2 or beyond for FY 2012. Based on annual limits and not considering any PWMBs, expected movement for EB2-IC is as tabulated below. This is based on no porting and no PWMBs.


For EB2-India, movement will be very small or expect no movement for first quarter (Q1) and then in Q2 we can expect 1 week movement each month until DOS will try to intake extra inventory in Q3. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India. For EB2-China we can expect 4 weeks in Q1 and Q2 each, until DOS will allocate any extra movement to intake inventory for spillover season.


EB2-IC Movement in FY2012 if there is no Porting and PWMB’s

EB2 Priority Dates India Month(s) to cross this PD

1-May-2007 710 3 months
1-June-2007 1070 8 months
1-July-2007 1272 Spillover
1-July-2007 1673 Spillover

EB2 Priority Dates China Month(s) to cross this PD

1-May-2007 305 2 months
1-June-2007 519 4 months
1-July-2007 558 7 months
1-July-2007 1788 Spillover


EB3-EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15th April 2007Above tabulated estimation can all change, especially for EB2-India, if individuals in EB3 category with PD before 15 April 2007 will start porting. We expect EB3 to EB2 porting for FY 2012 will be at same level as FY 2011.

Expected numbers should not be more than 2,800. Other than these porting numbers we should also consider calculated PWMBs before 15th April 2007, which are 1,958. Again assuming that out of these only 50% are still eligible, this number comes out to be around 979. Out of these we expect 50% or more will use visa numbers from FY 2011 quota. So rollover backlog to FY 2012 will be 488.


So EB3 to EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15 April 2007 that would be counted towards FY 2012 becomes 2,800 + 488 = 3,288. Of course, porting demand will be realized slowly and hence we can expect little but small movement for EB2- India. Movement depends on PWMB rollover and new porting demand. EB2-China should continue to move as outlined above as we expect no porting, and we expect FY 2011 rollover PWMB demand to be around 150 or less.

What will be the total demand for FY 2012 and how much spillover is required to cross 2007?

So now going back to total demand for FY 2012 as calculated above up to 15 August 2007 and adding demand for PWMBs up to cut-off at that time (4,151- 2,803 = 1,351) assuming dates around 01 June 2007), porting and rollover PWMBs and removing annual limit, (5600) total demand required to cross PD July 2007 (see large font numbers above)


8,000 +1,351 + 3,288 + 150 – 5,600 = 7,189

Total demand of 7,189 will be enough to keep DOS from worrying about taking any new inventory until April 2012. Once the fiscal year progresses into early Q3, just like FY11 year DOS may start looking into half yearly projected demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, DOS will start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exception this year), this move would totally depend upon number of visas available.

If DOS feels there is more than 7189 unused visa numbers that they can expect based on past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our previous article), they will plan on taking extra inventory to make I-485 cases documentarily qualified for rest of the fiscal year. Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC.


So if expected spillover from half-yearly unused number is 10,000, they will try to intake for 18,000 or less, thus EB2-IC movement will be based on 18,000 – 7,189 = 10,811, thus crossing only 4-5 months from July 2007 at most at first trial and error. If after this movement, in case DOS would see change in demand pattern then they can try to retrogress dates or progress dates in July 2012 (Q4). Next fiscal year ,spillovers can either be used on a quarterly basis or we can expect some big movement in April 2012 and then second recalibration in July 2012.


If first trial and error would cause dates to move until PD December 2007 in early Q3 of FY2012; based on our estimation it will bring 11,664 EB2-I applications; 2,109 more EB2-C application; and 2803 new PWMBs post 01 June 2007 that were not considered above. These EB2-IC numbers comes from PERM data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. After applying this, if we consider most optimistically due to economic recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until December 2007 becomes – (0.75 x (11664+2109)) +2803 = 11912 + 2803 = 14715.

Based on above 18,000 spillovers, 10,811 left after July 2007 would only take EB2-India and China to end of November 2007, and dates could retrogress from December 2007 in July 2012 . If we expect next year’s spillover will be same as this FY 2011 (very unlikely), and we will receive 25000 unused visa numbers, EB2-IC in FY 2012 will end up around January 2008. In reality dates can be anywhere between December 2007 to January 2008 for FY 2012.


It should be noted in above scenario I-140 to I-485 conversion is assumed 75% and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.

Now final question is if dates will retrogress or move forward after first huge movement in early Q3 for next fiscal year?

We are really hoping that DOS/USCIS should use quarterly spillover than half yearly spillover for next fiscal year. But Mr. Oppenheim being conservative in nature will move dates only in early Q3 around April 2012 and then recalibrate in July 2012. Dates retrogressing or moving forward will totally depend upon EB1 and EB2-ROW demand.


Do we expect retrogression in Q1 for EB2-I?

No, we do not expect retrogression for EB2-I in Q1 FY 2012. In case if that will happen, it will not be more than a month. Chances are very less.

[adibhatla]

.

[chikna]

Why there is no activity here? Should I come back here after March 2012?

[ajp5]

This is going to have a big impact on porting. 6k / year that Teddy has been predicting is probably going down.

This is also of particular interest to our friend in EB3 who are planning on porting.

DOL suspends Prevailing Wage Request processing – Potential impacts on PERM cases (http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/news/2011/20110811.shtml)

[belmontboy]

Why there is no activity here? Should I come back here after March 2012?

are you expecting anything to happen in march 2012, for yourself?

[ivarz]

Friends, I read on another forum today that QCom in san diego is applying EB1 for several senior developers who came from India and they have same experience as most of us(if not less). If you have any more specifics around this, please do not hesitate to report this fraud


**************************************************
When you come across any immigration Frauds
# Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.

Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
Mail Stop 2280 Washington,
D.C. 20529-2280
FDNS@dhs.gov
**************************************************

[frustratingGC]

Looks like he is all set to Port
He must complete masters degree before porting...no porting for another 2 yrs...:)

[iak1973]

Friends, I read on another forum today that QCom in san diego is applying EB1 for several senior developers who came from India and they have same experience as most of us(if not less). If you have any more specifics around this, please do not hesitate to report this fraud



This topic discussed many times, few of my friends, applied as managers in EB1 and got their GC's (obviously from Indian IT consulting companies). However its not a fraud, but exploiting the loophole in law.

It's very unfortunate that many research fellows are turned down with RFE's in spite of having credible references, papers, publications; but a guy with 50-80K can file under EB1 as a middle level manager. Spread the word, and report if you find any fraud.

[smuggymba]

This topic discussed many times, few of my friends, applied as managers in EB1 and got their GC's (obviously from Indian IT consulting companies). However its not a fraud, but exploiting the loophole in law.

It's very unfortunate that many research fellows are turned down with RFE's in spite of having credible references, papers, publications; but a guy with 50-80K can file under EB1 as a middle level manager. Spread the word, and report if you find any fraud.

Are you kidding me? Forget middle level manager - sr analyst/sr consultant with Infy have successfully got GC's in EB1.

[GCFrenzy]

Are you kidding me? Forget middle level manager - sr analyst/sr consultant with Infy have successfully got GC's in EB1.


as managers... but may be doing same as what you told ....

[iak1973]

Are you kidding me? Forget middle level manager - sr analyst/sr consultant with Infy have successfully got GC's in EB1.


100% agree with you.... some of them are actually doing consulting and programming.

[forever_waiting]

iak1973 said it best. Its not a fraud but a big loophole due to vague interpretation of the category. Yes we are pissed off and yes undeserving people are getting through thanks to their companies standing up for them (which I commend by the way). but it is NOT fraud and cannot be reported so. Unless they tighten the interpretation I doubt if reporting few cases here and there is going to help the overall cause. Lets focus on real IV advocacy that will bring huge relief and make these anomalies look negligible

[skpanda]

Friends...

Sorry to digress from the purpose of this thread. May I request you to actively participate in the below thread and let us know your views so that we can start a campaign for new initiative.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/2331131-conditional-green-card-for-buying-foreclosed-property-an-initiative.html

Thanks one and all!!

PS: If you have any comments on the initiative, please present then in the above thread and not in this calculations threads. Thanks!!

[ek_bechara]

iak1973 said it best. Its not a fraud but a big loophole due to vague interpretation of the category. Yes we are pissed off and yes undeserving people are getting through thanks to their companies standing up for them (which I commend by the way). but it is NOT fraud and cannot be reported so. Unless they tighten the interpretation I doubt if reporting few cases here and there is going to help the overall cause. Lets focus on real IV advocacy that will bring huge relief and make these anomalies look negligible

Going by your logic, not jumping a red light is the law but when you do it late at night with no cop around it is a loophole because it can be vaguely interpreted that jumping the signal is not going to harm anybody or put one in trouble. No amount of putting lipstick on this pig or conducting rounds of intellectual masturbation is going to help. The solution is simple, if anybody finds someone exploiting the "loophole", just report it; period.

I would say go the extra mile and report the company as well. It is important to make sure we don't jump our hormones and start reporting every company out there because some friend of a friend's Aunt's daughter-in-law's pet dog's cousin is filing under EB-1. It's a known fact that with us rumor mongering is a hobby.

Be objective, find all the "TRUE" facts, and reach out to the authorities.

[cleopatra]

Going by your logic, not jumping a red light is the law but when you do it late at night with no cop around it is a loophole because it can be vaguely interpreted that jumping the signal is not going to harm anybody or put one in trouble. No amount of putting lipstick on this pig or conducting rounds of intellectual masturbation is going to help. The solution is simple, if anybody finds someone exploiting the "loophole", just report it; period.

I would say go the extra mile and report the company as well. It is important to make sure we don't jump our hormones and start reporting every company out there because some friend of a friend's Aunt's daughter-in-law's pet dog's cousin is filing under EB-1. It's a known fact that with us rumor mongering is a hobby.

Be objective, find all the "TRUE" facts, and reach out to the authorities.

This has been discussed multiple times. It is the law right now that is being used, period. At best it is a loophole and no one is breaking the law.

As for your analogy, it is incorrect. The correct one might be: if there is a law that you can jump signals if there is an emergency, then you can jump signals as long as you can prove that you have an emergency. BTW your emergency may not be acceptable to me. Nevertheless if you can prove that you have an emergency to the cops and they find it acceptable, then you are allowed to skip. That is the analogy to be used here.

In no way or form am I condoning fraud. If you see someone committing a fraud or breaking the law, report it. It is your duty. But EB1 is not fraud, it is the law.

Also remember that EB1 manager visa is a very miniscule part of the overall equation and that too the ones from India are probably around 2000 a year. Where is the rest going? That is what we should look at. Maybe it is being utilized correctly, maybe not. We have no way of knowing unless we dig deep.

Instead of beating a dead horse and wasting our time, lets focus on advocacy and get our issues fixed. If you see fraud, report it.

[lovenil]

Dude,

I can assure you whereever you got that information is totally bogus. I work for QCOM ( Priority dates Dec -07 - EB2).

Even most qualified of people in QCOM has hard time going through Fragomen and Larabee ( law firms which represent QCOM) to get EB1 and I am talking about people with multiple journal publication and patents.

So it is very unlikely anyone you mentioned would get to apply in EB1.

Friends, I read on another forum today that QCom in san diego is applying EB1 for several senior developers who came from India and they have same experience as most of us(if not less). If you have any more specifics around this, please do not hesitate to report this fraud


**************************************************
When you come across any immigration Frauds
# Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.

Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
Mail Stop 2280 Washington,
D.C. 20529-2280
FDNS@dhs.gov
**************************************************

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends my 2 cents on the analogy. Traffic Signals can be considered binary either 0 or 1 something analogous to approval and denial. Unfortunately this traffic signal for different kinds of traffic. The rules for EB1C traffic are quite liberal so whoever meets those criteria via their qualified lawyers is not breaking the law in anyway. The fallacy here is that the system needs to be smarter than a traffic signal.

Coming to the comparison to cops, each category from EB1, EB2 to EB3 has its own criteria. EB1 is supposed to be for the exceptional however for EB1C in the current definition even the average pass through. The Kazarian memo has tightened EB1 A & B to a great deal so EB1C really needs a memo to reform if not anything else. The adjudicating officers are merely following the guidelines to them if there is a memo or a new law surely they will follow it to the fullest.

Probably smarter pattern recognition is required, exceptional should be redefined in every category so that only say the top 1-2% qualify because of the huge advantage associated with EB1 being the top category and something that will likely stay current.

On another note EB1C from India just consumes 3K visas, EB1C as a whole consumed 17K last year. Most of the EB1C usage comes from Canada, UK and other European countries. The biggest users of EB1C are marketing professionals and executives not IT. Indian IT is just the tip of the iceberg it is something that most of us on this forum can see easily however the reality is quite different. Definitely by all means fraud must be stopped and not condoned but this one is a classic case of the law being milked in broad daylight, it maybe ethically and morally incorrect but the law is not being broken.

[pranavgandhi]

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?



What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012?


Since now we know that EB2-India and China are stuck at 15th April 2007 for this fiscal year, we can try and estimate what we can expect for this category in FY 2012.


Eb2-India and China still need 8000 more visas for EB2-IC to cross PD 15 August 2007. This is calculated plainly from the currently released visible demand data, without including 'People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until 15 August 2007 cut-off date from September Visa bulletin cut-off date of 15 April 2007 are 8302. We firmly believe any PWMBs before July visa bulletin cut-off date of 08 March 2007 have good chance to get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.

So out of total PWMBs of 8,302 for EB2-IC until 15 August 2007, even if we assume that due to the economic recession and other unforeseen reasons, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 4,151. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July 2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 8,000 + 4,151 = 12,151.


Now we know as and when these PWMBs will become current and file for I-485 in order to become documentarily qualified, by that time we will be in Q2 or beyond for FY 2012. Based on annual limits and not considering any PWMBs, expected movement for EB2-IC is as tabulated below. This is based on no porting and no PWMBs.


For EB2-India, movement will be very small or expect no movement for first quarter (Q1) and then in Q2 we can expect 1 week movement each month until DOS will try to intake extra inventory in Q3. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India. For EB2-China we can expect 4 weeks in Q1 and Q2 each, until DOS will allocate any extra movement to intake inventory for spillover season.


EB2-IC Movement in FY2012 if there is no Porting and PWMB’s

EB2 Priority Dates India Month(s) to cross this PD

1-May-2007 710 3 months
1-June-2007 1070 8 months
1-July-2007 1272 Spillover
1-July-2007 1673 Spillover

EB2 Priority Dates China Month(s) to cross this PD

1-May-2007 305 2 months
1-June-2007 519 4 months
1-July-2007 558 7 months
1-July-2007 1788 Spillover


EB3-EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15th April 2007Above tabulated estimation can all change, especially for EB2-India, if individuals in EB3 category with PD before 15 April 2007 will start porting. We expect EB3 to EB2 porting for FY 2012 will be at same level as FY 2011.

Expected numbers should not be more than 2,800. Other than these porting numbers we should also consider calculated PWMBs before 15th April 2007, which are 1,958. Again assuming that out of these only 50% are still eligible, this number comes out to be around 979. Out of these we expect 50% or more will use visa numbers from FY 2011 quota. So rollover backlog to FY 2012 will be 488.


So EB3 to EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15 April 2007 that would be counted towards FY 2012 becomes 2,800 + 488 = 3,288. Of course, porting demand will be realized slowly and hence we can expect little but small movement for EB2- India. Movement depends on PWMB rollover and new porting demand. EB2-China should continue to move as outlined above as we expect no porting, and we expect FY 2011 rollover PWMB demand to be around 150 or less.

What will be the total demand for FY 2012 and how much spillover is required to cross 2007?

So now going back to total demand for FY 2012 as calculated above up to 15 August 2007 and adding demand for PWMBs up to cut-off at that time (4,151- 2,803 = 1,351) assuming dates around 01 June 2007), porting and rollover PWMBs and removing annual limit, (5600) total demand required to cross PD July 2007 (see large font numbers above)


8,000 +1,351 + 3,288 + 150 – 5,600 = 7,189

Total demand of 7,189 will be enough to keep DOS from worrying about taking any new inventory until April 2012. Once the fiscal year progresses into early Q3, just like FY11 year DOS may start looking into half yearly projected demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, DOS will start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exception this year), this move would totally depend upon number of visas available.

If DOS feels there is more than 7189 unused visa numbers that they can expect based on past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our previous article), they will plan on taking extra inventory to make I-485 cases documentarily qualified for rest of the fiscal year. Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC.


So if expected spillover from half-yearly unused number is 10,000, they will try to intake for 18,000 or less, thus EB2-IC movement will be based on 18,000 – 7,189 = 10,811, thus crossing only 4-5 months from July 2007 at most at first trial and error. If after this movement, in case DOS would see change in demand pattern then they can try to retrogress dates or progress dates in July 2012 (Q4). Next fiscal year ,spillovers can either be used on a quarterly basis or we can expect some big movement in April 2012 and then second recalibration in July 2012.


If first trial and error would cause dates to move until PD December 2007 in early Q3 of FY2012; based on our estimation it will bring 11,664 EB2-I applications; 2,109 more EB2-C application; and 2803 new PWMBs post 01 June 2007 that were not considered above. These EB2-IC numbers comes from PERM data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. After applying this, if we consider most optimistically due to economic recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until December 2007 becomes – (0.75 x (11664+2109)) +2803 = 11912 + 2803 = 14715.

Based on above 18,000 spillovers, 10,811 left after July 2007 would only take EB2-India and China to end of November 2007, and dates could retrogress from December 2007 in July 2012 . If we expect next year’s spillover will be same as this FY 2011 (very unlikely), and we will receive 25000 unused visa numbers, EB2-IC in FY 2012 will end up around January 2008. In reality dates can be anywhere between December 2007 to January 2008 for FY 2012.


It should be noted in above scenario I-140 to I-485 conversion is assumed 75% and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.

Now final question is if dates will retrogress or move forward after first huge movement in early Q3 for next fiscal year?

We are really hoping that DOS/USCIS should use quarterly spillover than half yearly spillover for next fiscal year. But Mr. Oppenheim being conservative in nature will move dates only in early Q3 around April 2012 and then recalibrate in July 2012. Dates retrogressing or moving forward will totally depend upon EB1 and EB2-ROW demand.


Do we expect retrogression in Q1 for EB2-I?

No, we do not expect retrogression for EB2-I in Q1 FY 2012. In case if that will happen, it will not be more than a month. Chances are very less.

Thanks for your long detail analysis.

as per your post,
If first trial and error would cause dates to move until PD December 2007 in early Q3 of FY2012; based on our estimation it will bring 11,664 EB2-I applications; 2,109 more EB2-C application; and 2803 new PWMBs post 01 June 2007 that were not considered above.

But I see only around 12K(EB3+Eb2+porting) PERM certified for India btwn Aug-1-2007 to Dec 2007. How can it be 11.6K for EB2 numbers out of these?
I need to understand following items. See if you can reply it will be helpful.
1. Is Dependent GC numbers are counted in Employment category?
2. How you determined 11.6 K are for EB2 application from PERM database? We have only PERM data after August 2007.

[ek_bechara]

Friends my 2 cents on the analogy. Traffic Signals can be considered binary either 0 or 1 something analogous to approval and denial. Unfortunately this traffic signal for different kinds of traffic. The rules for EB1C traffic are quite liberal so whoever meets those criteria via their qualified lawyers is not breaking the law in anyway. The fallacy here is that the system needs to be smarter than a traffic signal.

Coming to the comparison to cops, each category from EB1, EB2 to EB3 has its own criteria. EB1 is supposed to be for the exceptional however for EB1C in the current definition even the average pass through. The Kazarian memo has tightened EB1 A & B to a great deal so EB1C really needs a memo to reform if not anything else. The adjudicating officers are merely following the guidelines to them if there is a memo or a new law surely they will follow it to the fullest.

Probably smarter pattern recognition is required, exceptional should be redefined in every category so that only say the top 1-2% qualify because of the huge advantage associated with EB1 being the top category and something that will likely stay current.

On another note EB1C from India just consumes 3K visas, EB1C as a whole consumed 17K last year. Most of the EB1C usage comes from Canada, UK and other European countries. The biggest users of EB1C are marketing professionals and executives not IT. Indian IT is just the tip of the iceberg it is something that most of us on this forum can see easily however the reality is quite different. Definitely by all means fraud must be stopped and not condoned but this one is a classic case of the law being milked in broad daylight, it maybe ethically and morally incorrect but the law is not being broken.

Teddy: I agree with you. I'm biased in my observation because I see mostly Indians around me who have abused the loophole/broken the law (however you may want to put it). I work in a business function and have seen eligible candidates (intra company transfers) get GC through EB1 (Director level and above). Call it a microcosmic exposure but the fact remains that even if half of these EB1-India cases would have been stopped for the last X number of years, you and I would have gotten the GC this year itself. What irks me is the boasting of how these falsified applications twisted the law to get their GC. I see something wrong, I'm going to report it. I leave it to the authorities to decide whether the law was broken or a loophole was taken advantage of...

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy: I agree with you. I'm biased in my observation because I see mostly Indians around me who have abused the loophole/broken the law (however you may want to put it). I work in a business function and have seen eligible candidates (intra company transfers) get GC through EB1 (Director level and above). Call it a microcosmic exposure but the fact remains that even if half of these EB1-India cases would have been stopped for the last X number of years, you and I would have gotten the GC this year itself. What irks me is the boasting of how these falsified applications twisted the law to get their GC. I see something wrong, I'm going to report it. I leave it to the authorities to decide whether the law was broken or a loophole was taken advantage of...

I agree with you totally we have to wait another year or atleast 6 months, unfortunately due to the definition of EB1C being defined at such a high level those other than exceptional have used it. Atleast in the examples you have provided the individuals were director or above.

[Rb_newsletter]

The rules for EB1C traffic are quite liberal so whoever meets those criteria via their qualified lawyers is not breaking the law in anyway.


Use of B1 in lieu of H1 is also allowed by law. But Infosys is being investigated for abusing that law. EB1C is similar to this case. It is not a direct violation, but the EB1C is not intended for low profile people.


On another note EB1C from India just consumes 3K visas, EB1C as a whole consumed 17K last year. Most of the EB1C usage comes from Canada, UK and other European countries. The biggest users of EB1C are marketing professionals and executives not IT.

Just curious to know, where did you get this numbers?

[TeddyKoochu]

Just curious to know, where did you get this numbers?

You can get these numbers from the DOS annual report. EB1C used ~ 20K, while EB1 India got ~ 6K, so EB1C-India is ~ 3K. So this problem is fairly wide Indian IT usage is just the tip of the iceberg.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends with respect to the posting by @adibhatla and the USCIS dashboard recently updated following are a few observations.

From Dashboard - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) - The backlog in Q3 decreased from 34K in April to 29K in June. The number of completions in Jun 9.4K is virtually double of Feb completions of 4.8K. Since the Aug & Sep bulletins did not show much movement its indicative of the fact that several concurrently filed EB2 ROW and EB1 cases became eligible for approvals it correlates very well with the I140 approval trend. If the current pace of approvals continues then by the end of Q1 2012 i.e. Dec the I140 backlog might reduce significantly. The key factor will really be the rate of incoming i140 and 485 applications, this surge has the potential to fully consume the entire EB2 ROW and EB1 cap for Q1 at the minimum or even significant part of the Q2 cap at maximum. With this trend continuing we might see the lower projection of SOFAD in 2012. There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India, China might move though.

@adibhatla - The post is fine I have a few observations. They are assuming a very high number for PWMB before 15th April. I agree with the ~ 4K after 1th April, virtually most of the PWMB's are concentrated in May, Jun and July so most of them are still waiting to file for 485.

Following is a rough demand picture

1) Preadjudicated cases - 8K.
2) PWMB - 4K
3) Expected porting that will come constantly over the year 6K, we should stick with 6k because with Eb2-I being at 15th Apr 2007 potentially more people from EB3 can port and expect to get approved right away.
If we add these 3 the demand till 01-SEP-2007 is ~ 18K. Now the trend for I140 is not in favor of SOFAD because they are being approved at an alarming rate. The SOFAD in the upcoming year is expected to be in the range 20K - 30K (This year’s SOFAD). The current rate of approval of I140 will push the SOFAD very close to the lower end, the Aug and September bulletin freeze is a part of his trend. This way this year may end 01-OCT-2007. Only in the best case scenario with the current information is there is a chance of crossing 2007 this year for GC approvals, intake is totally hypothetical and maybe till a point much further if and when it happens, however there seems to be no possibility at all of any intake before Q3. Also the approval rate in Q1 2012 on the other site for EB2 ROW and EB1 will be a critical indicator.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK - I know you have done a lot of analysis. Do you know what % of those who are current in EB2I/C (until April 15 2007) have gotten their GC already?

I know there is a running thread that reports those who have got GC, but I am wondering as of this fiscal , end sept, how many more need to get GC's even though they are current.
This can have an impact on any date movement next year, correct?
Would any of the monthly/quarterly reports truly tell us these pending applicants. I would think the demand report sdhould but as we saw in a different thread there seems to be error in those numbers...

As an example if I am May 2006 but for some reason they are still revieiwng my files, and the review is completeed only in Dec 2011, then that applicant will actually be using a visa number from 2012. So that will reduce what we have available for EB2 next year, correct?

Just thoughts.. but curious enough to post them.

I believe by the end of September all cases that are current will be approved. There are far fewer people complaining about 485 approvals now. Probably 1-2% people maybe left out. The exact figure of 485 cases with the agencies will come by in the Oct VB demand data. Most PWMB's who were able to file in Aug should also see approvals soon.

[gclabor07]

TK,

Do you know when our time (as PWMBs) will come to file I-485, with July 2007 being priority dates, mine in July 16? Do you foresee any movement before December 2011? I need to decide if I should go for H1B stamping, or if I should wait? I waited for 4 years to go to India, but the wait is unbearable now. Thanks for the great work you've done in predicting the dates so far.

Thanks.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK,

Do you know when our time (as PWMBs) will come to file I-485, with July 2007 being priority dates, mine in July 16? Do you foresee any movement before December 2011? I need to decide if I should go for H1B stamping, or if I should wait? I waited for 4 years to go to India, but the wait is unbearable now. Thanks for the great work you've done in predicting the dates so far.

Thanks.

I believe our time as PWMB's especially Jul ones will come only after Apr 2012. There is ~ 18K demand in theory before AUG 2007. Another interesting thing is Jul demand is really heavy and by your PD you come in the 3rd quadrant by 1, 8, 15, 22 being the PD dates. I can understand how you feel. You should take the chance only if you are a full time employee of a large company otherwise its just not worth the risk. One thing is for sure according to the current trends all PWMB's will get their GC by Sep 2012.

[hbk]

I believe our time as PWMB's especially Jul ones will come only after Apr 2012. There is ~ 18K demand in theory before AUG 2007. Another interesting thing is Jul demand is really heavy and by your PD you come in the 3rd quadrant by 1, 8, 15, 22 being the PD dates. I can understand how you feel. You should take the chance only if you are a full time employee of a large company otherwise its just not worth the risk. One thing is for sure according to the current trends all PWMB's will get their GC by Sep 2012.

Hi Teddy,

As you mentioned "all PWMB's will get their GC by Sep 2012" means my PD is Sep-15-2007(EB-2 India) so is there any chance for me to atleast file I-485 by Sep 2012 or I may get GC by Sep 2012 ? Whats your best prediction on that.

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

As you mentioned "all PWMB's will get their GC by Sep 2012" means my PD is Sep-15-2007(EB-2 India) so is there any chance for me to atleast file I-485 by Sep 2012 or I may get GC by Sep 2012 ? Whats your best prediction on that.

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

Refer to the following post for details http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2767079-post3330.html. I will update the header of the thread for soon. I believe you are set for EAD and GC both this year but anyone after Oct 2007 is in risky territory as of now the projection will keep evolving over time. Extra intake maybe to a later date its completely hypothetical and unlikely to happen soon.

[hbk]

Refer to the following post for details http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2767079-post3330.html. I will update the header of the thread for soon. I believe you are set for EAD and GC both this year but anyone after Oct 2007 is in risky territory as of now the projection will keep evolving over time. Extra intake maybe to a later date its completely hypothetical and unlikely to happen soon.

Thanks a lot Teddy for the quick response.
Lets hope for the best. :)

Regards.

[gclabor07]

Thanks for your feedback. I'll weigh this info while making the decision.

I believe our time as PWMB's especially Jul ones will come only after Apr 2012. There is ~ 18K demand in theory before AUG 2007. Another interesting thing is Jul demand is really heavy and by your PD you come in the 3rd quadrant by 1, 8, 15, 22 being the PD dates. I can understand how you feel. You should take the chance only if you are a full time employee of a large company otherwise its just not worth the risk. One thing is for sure according to the current trends all PWMB's will get their GC by Sep 2012.

[harrydr]

Teddy and gurus,
I understand that USCIS is not obligated to fill the pipeline but i also understand that they do so in order to not waste any available visas after the spillover has occured. Based upon the above theory, shouldn't they move the dates in order to fill the pipeline again for the next fiscal year??:confused:

[PrinceVA]

Refer to the following post for details http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2767079-post3330.html. I will update the header of the thread for soon. I believe you are set for EAD and GC both this year but anyone after Oct 2007 is in risky territory as of now the projection will keep evolving over time. Extra intake maybe to a later date its completely hypothetical and unlikely to happen soon.

TK,
When you say this year, I guess you point to 2012. I see few replies where you point that July and after dates miget get a chance in 2012 first / second quarter.
What about before July, like May & June ? You see any chances this year.

I saw your post on Adibhatia. After reading that, I was disappointed.

[Rb_newsletter]

Teddy and gurus,
I understand that USCIS is not obligated to fill the pipeline but i also understand that they do so in order to not waste any available visas after the spillover has occured. Based upon the above theory, shouldn't they move the dates in order to fill the pipeline again for the next fiscal year??:confused:


Whether they move PD or not the visas will not be wasted. Visas will fall down to EB3.

[gc_on_demand]

Way DOS is coordinating with NVC to send out fees notices looks like DOS is only considering 8k + 5-6k porting + 3-4k PWMB + 2-3 k NVC demand once they will 18+ spill over + regular quota , they will advance date in such a rate it can be "C" or close to current.

I agree with Tedy that DOS will not be able to move date till end of Q2 2012 and they will have very short time to open gate for EB2 IC so they will open for all.

[Rb_newsletter]

Following is a rough demand picture

1) Preadjudicated cases - 8K.
2) PWMB - 4K
3) Expected porting that will come constantly over the year 6K, we should stick with 6k because with Eb2-I being at 15th Apr 2007 potentially more people from EB3 can port and expect to get approved right away.


You should also consider 2012 would be a bad market. Big companies like Cisco already started layoffs, which means they cannot (or will avoid) filing any GCs. So I think fresh demand will be lower and contribute to SOFAD.

However, untill last quarter of 2012 they will not make any effort to intake EB2I/C. If they open EB2I/C gate in last quarter of 2012, then they cannot approve those new filings within 2012 fiscal year. So practically those 485 filings can be approved only in last quarter of 2013 fiscal year.

[SVS]

This is very depressing and frustrating!

[NNReddy]

Can someone throw some light on possibility of EB3 july 2003 becoming current? would it be 2 or 3 or 4 years from now. USCIS website shows there are 13000 before July 2003, but I guess most of them are out of country already or already upgraded to EB2 or got their green cards thru their spouse? Real number probably close to 5000, that should not take more than 2 years.

Any thoughts

[saran.kas]

Eb2 and Eb3 approvals are quick for those who are current.. i got my green card.. thanks to immigrationvoice.

[h1techSlave]

Ha ha ha. That's all I could say.

Can someone throw some light on possibility of EB3 july 2003 becoming current? would it be 2 or 3 or 4 years from now. USCIS website shows there are 13000 before July 2003, but I guess most of them are out of country already or already upgraded to EB2 or got their green cards thru their spouse? Real number probably close to 5000, that should not take more than 2 years.

Any thoughts

[gcandgc]

Can someone throw some light on possibility of EB3 july 2003 becoming current? would it be 2 or 3 or 4 years from now. USCIS website shows there are 13000 before July 2003, but I guess most of them are out of country already or already upgraded to EB2 or got their green cards thru their spouse? Real number probably close to 5000, that should not take more than 2 years.

Any thoughts

Hi
Though there are porters, many of them so far I have seen are 2004 and later. This means not much numbers would have come down from 13000. Even if it is, my belief is, it will take 3 years. Even for EB3, 2003, porting or legislative relief are the best options.
GCANDGC

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi
Though there are porters, many of them so far I have seen are 2004 and later. This means not much numbers would have come down from 13000. Even if it is, my belief is, it will take 3 years. Even for EB3, 2003, porting or legislative relief are the best options.
GCANDGC

I assumed the date to be 15th Jun. There are 12164 cases ahead 4 years seems very reasonable, 3 years is possible only if early 2003 folks also start porting or people get GC by other means like spouse becoming citizen etc.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK,
When you say this year, I guess you point to 2012. I see few replies where you point that July and after dates miget get a chance in 2012 first / second quarter.
What about before July, like May & June ? You see any chances this year.

I saw your post on Adibhatia. After reading that, I was disappointed.

Most PWMB's will get their chance in the May 2012 bulletin, if we get it before that then its like a bonus. The fast rate of I140 processing will virtually cleanup all SOFAD that may have come from Q1 2012 from EB2 ROW and EB1. Rest assured the PWMB's will get both EAD and GC this year but the first few bulletins will be slow.

[gcgoingon]

Teddy,

On a separate note, do you see people who filed in June/July 2011 (EB2I with PD ~Aug-Oct '06) getting approved this year. I am one of those ones who filed in June 2011 with PD Aug '06; I do not see anything happening yet with updates with respect to case status.

Thanks once again for all the analysis and responses.

[bang]

any chance of it happening in next one year ?

1) Oct 2011
2) Jan 2012
3) July 2012
4) Oct 2012.
5) beyond Oct 2012 .... some time in 2013.

Which of these Options are more likely. I was all set for porting, but now with the delay in even filing PERM application (Prevailing wages info not been released), now i am thinking if the delay is next few months ... whether it is worth Porting in my case.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

On a separate note, do you see people who filed in June/July 2011 (EB2I with PD ~Aug-Oct '06) getting approved this year. I am one of those ones who filed in June 2011 with PD Aug '06; I do not see anything happening yet with updates with respect to case status.

Thanks once again for all the analysis and responses.

I think you should be approved by Sep end most likely, worst case by Oct end.

any chance of it happening in next one year ?

1) Oct 2011
2) Jan 2012
3) July 2012
4) Oct 2012.
5) beyond Oct 2012 .... some time in 2013.

Which of these Options are more likely. I was all set for porting, but now with the delay in even filing PERM application (Prevailing wages info not been released), now i am thinking if the delay is next few months ... whether it is worth Porting in my case.

There are 4500 cases ahead of your date further from where the date is currently at. This way its option 5, I would bet on Q2 2013 between 01-JAN-2013 and 03-31-2013. If porting gets you there faster go for it.

[hpandey]

any chance of it happening in next one year ?

1) Oct 2011
2) Jan 2012
3) July 2012
4) Oct 2012.
5) beyond Oct 2012 .... some time in 2013.

Which of these Options are more likely. I was all set for porting, but now with the delay in even filing PERM application (Prevailing wages info not been released), now i am thinking if the delay is next few months ... whether it is worth Porting in my case.

As per the I-485 pending inventory data - just for the months of June - October which are not current yet the demand is 3640 which is more than the allowed EB3-I quota for FY 2012 . That is why I guess that it will probably be Oct 2012 or beyond that Nov 2002 might be current. Although unexpected things might happen and Eb3 might move a bit more quickly but I am not betting on it .

[TeddyKoochu]

As per the I-485 pending inventory data - just for the months of June - October which are not current yet the demand is 3640 which is more than the allowed EB3-I quota for FY 2012 . That is why I guess that it will probably be Oct 2012 or beyond that Nov 2002 might be current. Although unexpected things might happen and Eb3 might move a bit more quickly but I am not betting on it .

bang's case is end of Nov so you should count the whole of Nov as well. So as of now it will definitely be beyond Oct 2012. Now we will be entering the denser part of EB3-I, the density in early 2002 was less.

[vkonam]

Hi My PD is Dec 14th 2007. Can any one give an approximate date by when my PD might get current. I know its all speculation, but just wanted to have an idea.

Thanks,
Vijay K

[maverick2010]

My FP got done on 08/17 and my PD is 09/06(485 filed 30th June 2011).How long would it take to get greened?

Thanks,

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi My PD is Dec 14th 2007. Can any one give an approximate date by when my PD might get current. I know its all speculation, but just wanted to have an idea.

Thanks,
Vijay K

Refer to the following post http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2767079-post3330.html. Chances of GC are less, getting EAD is borderline.

My FP got done on 08/17 and my PD is 09/06(485 filed 30th June 2011).How long would it take to get greened?

Thanks,

You should be greened by Sep - Oct 2011.

[sanz]

Finally got my approvals. Whew... What a wait....

Will miss following this thread EB2-EB3 Predictions and Calculations. Thanks to all the Gurus who did the magical calculations and made the wait predictable. Wish everyone all the best... The grass is green on the other side of the mountain...

[whereismygclost]

congrats on ur GC! Hope we all get to see the green grass soon :)

[rameshk]

Any surprises expected in october bulletin? anyone?

[uumapathi]

Finally, the long and arduous wait is over, had to wait for the card for a month after approval, however, contacting our state's Senator helped. Good luck to everyone waiting...

[soorigadu2003]

Teddy - According to the link, it seems like this year we can reach Oct 2007. Is it possible? Mine is Aug 07.

Thanks much

[arnet]

I'm looking for the link that shows EB3I-employment visa demand by month wise, all i can find is the yearly total in travel.state.gov. can someone share it, wanted to know how many pending applications in each month in 2002.

Also Teddy, any idea when EB3I-Aug 2002 (month end) will be current? thnx

thanks.

[hibworker]

Teddy,

On a separate note, do you see people who filed in June/July 2011 (EB2I with PD ~Aug-Oct '06) getting approved this year. I am one of those ones who filed in June 2011 with PD Aug '06; I do not see anything happening yet with updates with respect to case status.

Thanks once again for all the analysis and responses.

Currently NSC is processing EB I-485 from Jan 28, 2011. Thus current processing time is 7 months. With rapid movement of dates, more than normal people would have applied for I-485 so expect 7 - 9 months to get GC from the date you sent the app.

[dbroy05]

Teddy,

On a separate note, do you see people who filed in June/July 2011 (EB2I with PD ~Aug-Oct '06) getting approved this year. I am one of those ones who filed in June 2011 with PD Aug '06; I do not see anything happening yet with updates with respect to case status.

Thanks once again for all the analysis and responses.
Hi, I'm also on the same boat. When did you have your FP done?

[MYGC2008]

All,

Special Thanks to "VDLRao" "Vin13", "Qeshmeq" , "Teddy"

I just received the Magic Email saying

" On August 25, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you."

Here is the story so far:

Labor Dec 06 ( EB2)
I-140 Approved Jan 07
485 filed on JUly 07
Case Transferred from TSC -->NSC on May 2008
Address change on June 2008
1st RFE on Sept 2008 --> Birth Certificate and Employment Verification
Changed the employer on may 2010 1st change --> NO AC21 Filed
Changed the employer again om March 2011 2nd change --> No AC21 filed
2nd RFE on July 22 2011--> Employment Verification
RFE updated on Agugust 21 2011 --> With Employment letter and AC21 detaild
Greened on August 25 2011

Thank you all for supporting on this huge journey. suddenly feeling a burdon has come down. last 2-3 months was really a hectic with tons of work load and the 2nd RFE.

I request everybody who is waiting to be patient

Thank you

[PrinceVA]

Hi, I'm also on the same boat. When did you have your FP done?

My brother is in the same boat. He got his medical and FP & interview done. Nothing after 4 months of date getting current, took 2-3 infopass meeting. Last time he went, he said he should expect an interview, he informed that interview was already done, so they said, then you will not get interview. and in next 2 days he got letter saying appear for interview.

donno what these guys are doing sitting there ?

[rockbrain]

Hi all -
First of all, thanks to all of you for taking the time and effort to help other people like me out there for all these years. I have a question that I hope some of you can answer.
My priority date is Jan'07. I got married in Aug 2007 after I filed for I-485. As you guys know, the dates retrogressed after that . We could not file my wife's I-485 at that time. So, even though I got my EAD, we stayed on H1/H4 so that my wife would not be out of status. In Jul-11,my priority date became current. I got my green card in Aug. We filed my wife's I-485, AP and EAD immediately on July 1st. We got her application's receipt and she was fingerprinted two weeks ago. How long would you think it will take for her to receive her green card, AP and EAD? If I shift jobs now, will there be any problems? Can she go to India at this point and return without any issues? Thank you!

[vidyas_m]

I'm looking for the link that shows EB3I-employment visa demand by month wise, all i can find is the yearly total in travel.state.gov. can someone share it, wanted to know how many pending applications in each month in 2002.

Also Teddy, any idea when EB3I-Aug 2002 (month end) will be current? thnx

thanks.

It's in the USCIS wesbite's I-485 Demand Data...the latest is from May 2011...

USCIS - Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

[jindhal]

Hi all -
First of all, thanks to all of you for taking the time and effort to help others at that time. So, even though I got my EAD, we stayed on H1/H4 so that my wife would not be out of status. In Jul-11,my priority date became current. I got my green card in Aug. We filed my wife's I-485, AP and EAD immediately on July 1st. We got her application's receipt and she was fingerprinted two weeks ago. How long would you think it will take for her to receive her green card, AP and EAD? If I shift jobs now, will there be any problems? Can she go to India at this point and return without any issues? Thank you!

Once you get your green card its ideal to stick to the company that sponsored your green card for at least 6 months. However if you had used AC 21 prior to your green card approval you are free to change companies. As for your spouse, she should have an Advance Parole document prior to leaving the country, not having an advance parole would mean that her application could be considered abandoned. If you have applied for EAD/AP and its more than 75 days then you can either take an Infopass Appt and visit your local office for expediting the request or raise a Service request to expedite your request. Either ways you need the AP document to be able to travel outside and come back to the US.

[hibworker]

Once you get your green card its ideal to stick to the company that sponsored your green card for at least 6 months. However if you had used AC 21 prior to your green card approval you are free to change companies. As for your spouse, she should have an Advance Parole document prior to leaving the country, not having an advance parole would mean that her application could be considered abandoned. If you have applied for EAD/AP and its more than 75 days then you can either take an Infopass Appt and visit your local office for expediting the request or raise a Service request to expedite your request. Either ways you need the AP document to be able to travel outside and come back to the US.

Hi all -
First of all, thanks to all of you for taking the time and effort to help other people like me out there for all these years. I have a question that I hope some of you can answer.
My priority date is Jan'07. I got married in Aug 2007 after I filed for I-485. As you guys know, the dates retrogressed after that . We could not file my wife's I-485 at that time. So, even though I got my EAD, we stayed on H1/H4 so that my wife would not be out of status. In Jul-11,my priority date became current. I got my green card in Aug. We filed my wife's I-485, AP and EAD immediately on July 1st. We got her application's receipt and she was fingerprinted two weeks ago. How long would you think it will take for her to receive her green card, AP and EAD? If I shift jobs now, will there be any problems? Can she go to India at this point and return without any issues? Thank you!

I was in same situation. My wife got her Biometrics done last week and we got CPO email today - 4 business days is all it took. Her app was at NSC. Like Jindhal said, convention is to stay with GC sponsoring employer for at least 6 months - unless you have already changed jobs using AC 21. Also your wife can not go outside the country without AP or GC.

[arnet]

Thanks vidyas_m, this is the link i'm looking for. Great, thanks again.

It's in the USCIS wesbite's I-485 Demand Data...the latest is from May 2011...

USCIS - Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

[rockbrain]

I was in same situation. My wife got her Biometrics done last week and we got CPO email today - 4 business days is all it took. Her app was at NSC. Like Jindhal said, convention is to stay with GC sponsoring employer for at least 6 months - unless you have already changed jobs using AC 21. Also your wife can not go outside the country without AP or GC.

That's great; congratulations to you both. My wife's application is with NSC too. We have not received any communication or updates so far. Is this a cause to worry? Is anyone else in the same boat? How long does this typically take? Thanks!

[thankgod]

All - I am in a dilemma situation now. Please suggest me.

My PD is Nov 2009. and 140 got approved. I am working for a client through a consulting company.And I have H1B validity till 2013.

2 days back I got a Full Time job offer from a leading US bank. They want to sponsor H1B.Everything is OK, But they want to start my GC after a year.


My Concern is how many years it takes to get a GC for me through my current PD.


Guys, Please suggest me what should I do in this situation. Do I need to move to Full Time or wait here for some more years.

I will appreciate your suggestions.

[redsox2009]

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

[gc_on_demand]

All - I am in a dilemma situation now. Please suggest me.

My PD is Nov 2009. and 140 got approved. I am working for a client through a consulting company.And I have H1B validity till 2013.

2 days back I got a Full Time job offer from a leading US bank. They want to sponsor H1B.Everything is OK, But they want to start my GC after a year.


My Concern is how many years it takes to get a GC for me through my current PD.


Guys, Please suggest me what should I do in this situation. Do I need to move to Full Time or wait here for some more years.

I will appreciate your suggestions.

Unless miracle happens , it will take 3 years to reach to your PD. If I were you , I would accept offer. I did same mistake in 2008 and now regretting.

[chikna]

I have an approved I-140 PD December 2005 in EB3-I.

I have 3 year degree and 13 years US work experience. I am not eligible for EB2.

What are my options? Wait for EB3 to become current or Study MS?

Thanks.

[redsox2009]

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

[Janakiram]

Congrats Thankgod for your new opportunity. If I were you, I would explore the option of starting Greencard processing with dual investment (you and your employer). I don't think you are allowed to pay for the Labor but Attorney fees might be OK (please confirm this). Employer can pay your share of the money a year later as a bonus or sth. Considering this volatile economy (I think would last for at least couple of more years), it is better off starting the GC steps at the earliest to avoid any wait times because of RIR. Just my thoughts. ~Ram

[krupa]

I saw from USCIS website the number of I 140's approved for EB Categories during 2008, to June 30 2011.
USCIS published this statistics on August 12, 2011, with upto June 2011 data . The total I-140 approvals for all the categories was 11,749 in 2008 and 11,672 in 2009, 2,370 in 2010 and 1,202 (January through June) in 2011.


1. Does this mean number of I 485 approvals , in future years , will be very small as there may not be applications which are ready to process I 485 approvals ?

2. Also will there be any spill over from EB2 to EB3 , as I believe unless I140 approved , 485 can not be approved?

Friends with respect to the posting by @adibhatla and the USCIS dashboard recently updated following are a few observations.

From Dashboard - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1) - The backlog in Q3 decreased from 34K in April to 29K in June. The number of completions in Jun 9.4K is virtually double of Feb completions of 4.8K. Since the Aug & Sep bulletins did not show much movement its indicative of the fact that several concurrently filed EB2 ROW and EB1 cases became eligible for approvals it correlates very well with the I140 approval trend. If the current pace of approvals continues then by the end of Q1 2012 i.e. Dec the I140 backlog might reduce significantly. The key factor will really be the rate of incoming i140 and 485 applications, this surge has the potential to fully consume the entire EB2 ROW and EB1 cap for Q1 at the minimum or even significant part of the Q2 cap at maximum. With this trend continuing we might see the lower projection of SOFAD in 2012. There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India, China might move though.

@adibhatla - The post is fine I have a few observations. They are assuming a very high number for PWMB before 15th April. I agree with the ~ 4K after 1th April, virtually most of the PWMB's are concentrated in May, Jun and July so most of them are still waiting to file for 485.

Following is a rough demand picture

1) Preadjudicated cases - 8K.
2) PWMB - 4K
3) Expected porting that will come constantly over the year 6K, we should stick with 6k because with Eb2-I being at 15th Apr 2007 potentially more people from EB3 can port and expect to get approved right away.
If we add these 3 the demand till 01-SEP-2007 is ~ 18K. Now the trend for I140 is not in favor of SOFAD because they are being approved at an alarming rate. The SOFAD in the upcoming year is expected to be in the range 20K - 30K (This year’s SOFAD). The current rate of approval of I140 will push the SOFAD very close to the lower end, the Aug and September bulletin freeze is a part of his trend. This way this year may end 01-OCT-2007. Only in the best case scenario with the current information is there is a chance of crossing 2007 this year for GC approvals, intake is totally hypothetical and maybe till a point much further if and when it happens, however there seems to be no possibility at all of any intake before Q3. Also the approval rate in Q1 2012 on the other site for EB2 ROW and EB1 will be a critical indicator.

[krupa]

I saw from USCIS website the number of I 140's approved for EB Categories during 2008, to June 30 2011
USCIS published this statistics on August 12, 2011, with upto June 2011 data . The total I-140 approvals for all the categories was 11,749 in 2008 and 11,672 in 2009, 2,370 in 2010 and 1,202 (January through June) in 2011.

1. Does this mean number of I 485 approvals , in future years , will be very small as there may not be applications which are ready to process I 485 approvals ?

2. Also will there be any spill over from EB2 to EB3 , as I believe unless I140 approved , 485 can not be approved?

Any comments from experts from this forum on this ?

[cleopatra]

I saw from USCIS website the number of I 140's approved for EB Categories during 2008, to June 30 2011
USCIS published this statistics on August 12, 2011, with upto June 2011 data . The total I-140 approvals for all the categories was 11,749 in 2008 and 11,672 in 2009, 2,370 in 2010 and 1,202 (January through June) in 2011.

1. Does this mean number of I 485 approvals , in future years , will be very small as there may not be applications which are ready to process I 485 approvals ?

2. Also will there be any spill over from EB2 to EB3 , as I believe unless I140 approved , 485 can not be approved?

Any comments from experts from this forum on this ?

Something seems to be extremely wrong with the data. The numbers are definitely way higher than that. Otherwise, this means that there are a total of only around 26000 140s filed between 2008 to 2011? This is all the world?

Definitely not correct. If this number is correct, then it means 26000 x 2.2 x 0.75 = 42900 till date? Which means, the dates should be current in about a year? Sounds fishy. Definitely wrong data. The perm numbers and 140 numbers don't fit.

[krupa]

I also wondered to see the data, even the number of 485 approved since 2007 july , is more than 200,000.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf


Something seems to be extremely wrong with the data. The numbers are definitely way higher than that. Otherwise, this means that there are a total of only around 26000 140s filed between 2008 to 2011? This is all the world?

Definitely not correct. If this number is correct, then it means 26000 x 2.2 x 0.75 = 42900 till date? Which means, the dates should be current in about a year? Sounds fishy. Definitely wrong data. The perm numbers and 140 numbers don't fit.

[sher11]

Hi,
I finally got an email yesterday stating that card/document production has been ordered but after 5 hours another email update saying the case in in decision status stating that "We mailed you notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status". What does this mean?

[hpandey]

Hi,
I finally got an email yesterday stating that card/document production has been ordered but after 5 hours another email update saying the case in in decision status stating that "We mailed you notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status". What does this mean?

It means you got your GC and they have ordered production of your card and mailed you the notice. I hope you are happy ... you sound worried !

[sher11]

Since the status moved from card production back to Decision...and even the service center says that it is in Decision phase....

[krupa]

This report was generated with parameter where I140 status = 'Approved ' and looks like the data related to I140 approved , but not 485 approval is still pending.


In another report USICS approved (I 140) 55,577 as against 62,822 applications received during the period OCT 2010 to June 2011 (9 months).

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

Something seems to be extremely wrong with the data. The numbers are definitely way higher than that. Otherwise, this means that there are a total of only around 26000 140s filed between 2008 to 2011? This is all the world?

Definitely not correct. If this number is correct, then it means 26000 x 2.2 x 0.75 = 42900 till date? Which means, the dates should be current in about a year? Sounds fishy. Definitely wrong data. The perm numbers and 140 numbers don't fit.

[akshaya10001]

USICS also shows that in FY 2011, USCIS received total of 56,133 EB-485 applications and approved total of 82,112 EB-485 applications between October 1, 2010 through June 30, 2011.

Consider that EB3 & EB2 I & C are not current. Assume received total of 56,133 EB-485 applications are for EB1, EB2 ROW, EB4 & EB5. This data is for first 3 Quarters some EB2 I & C PWMB's EB3 ROW PWMB's may be filed but ignore this !!!! this number will be small.

based on this I-485 demand ( EB1, EB2 ROW, EB4 & EB5) 56,133/3*4 =74,844
Annual quota for EB1, EB2 ROW, EB4 & EB5 = 1,40,000 - (EB3 40K & EB2 I & C 6K) = 94k

Annual SOFAD due to less demand is 20K.

As per available data & many people opinion this year SOFAD is 30K, 10K due to slow/delay in processing applications. If same continues we get 20K SOFAD for next year but USCIS back to normal processing then next year SOFAD going to be 10K which is not good for EB2 I & C

[veni001]

I saw from USCIS website the number of I 140's approved for EB Categories during 2008, to June 30 2011
USCIS published this statistics on August 12, 2011, with upto June 2011 data . The total I-140 approvals for all the categories was 11,749 in 2008 and 11,672 in 2009, 2,370 in 2010 and 1,202 (January through June) in 2011.

1. Does this mean number of I 485 approvals , in future years , will be very small as there may not be applications which are ready to process I 485 approvals ?

2. Also will there be any spill over from EB2 to EB3 , as I believe unless I140 approved , 485 can not be approved?

Any comments from experts from this forum on this ?

krupa,
The I-140 data you are referring is for those who opted for Consular Processing(CP) only!

"This quarterly report shows Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker performance data for consular-processed I-140s and does not include any associated dependents. The number of cases approved are displayed by class and beneficiary country of birth."

For total number of I140 processed, look at USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1).

[krupa]

What my attorney told to me is:
On completion of MS your education becomes equivalent to 4 years bachelor degree.
It requires post qualification (after MS) experience to file new labor under EB2.
It is always better to study MS , have new degree as well get benifitted if law changes adversely for 3 year degree.

I have an approved I-140 PD December 2005 in EB3-I.

I have 3 year degree and 13 years US work experience. I am not eligible for EB2.

What are my options? Wait for EB3 to become current or Study MS?

Thanks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.


Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. The SOFAD figure we estimated as 33K looks good, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.

[pappu]

I came across someone with eb3 pending application for past several years despite being current. His PD is 1998. He came to know of IV from a friend and approached for help after trying unsuccessfully with service requests, lawyers and Senator inquiries.

It shows there are such cases that may not be in the data.

[TeddyKoochu]

I came across someone with eb3 pending application for past several years despite being current. His PD is 1998. He came to know of IV from a friend and approached for help after trying unsuccessfully with service requests, lawyers and Senator inquiries.

It shows there are such cases that may not be in the data.

Pappu the data is definitely accurate at a high level it may not be accurate at a micro level. What we use here is trends or percentage increases or reductions. So if there are any flaws and if they are proportionate they effectively get filtered out. It is really unfortunate to know that someone with a priority date of 1998 is still waiting. Most of the published reports, inventory and demand data reductions have matched high level with the SOFAD. The problem really is about fine print as different reports may have different criteria’s. Unfortunately there are missing links in the reports and systems itself that is why someone with a PD of 1998 is still waiting. One objective of any reporting framework is to find the missing links or issues in the system itself I believe that level of reporting is either missing or not in the public domain but things are definitely improving for the better.

[gc_on_demand]

Pappu the data is definitely accurate at a high level it may not be accurate at a micro level. What we use here is trends or percentage increases or reductions. So if there are any flaws and if they are proportionate they effectively get filtered out. It is really unfortunate to know that someone with a priority date of 1998 is still waiting. Most of the published reports, inventory and demand data reductions have matched high level with the SOFAD. The problem really is about fine print as different reports may have different criteria’s. Unfortunately there are missing links in the reports and systems itself that is why someone with a PD of 1998 is still waiting. One objective of any reporting framework is to find the missing links or issues in the system itself I believe that level of reporting is either missing or not in the public domain but things are definitely improving for the better.

Agree with Teddy on data. USCIS may have some rotten cases at local offices , also there was a report that lots of fed worker work remote these days and some files may be misplaced etc. We should be thankful to these agencies for what ever data they provide. We can't say if one person doesn't get GC means agency is representing wrong data.

[pns27]

At last got the e-mail from USCIS :)

"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision
On September 7, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283. "

Waiting for "ordered production" mail.

EB3 PD July 01 2002; It has been 9 years 8 months :rolleyes: :)

[krishmunn]

What my attorney told to me is:
On completion of MS your education becomes equivalent to 4 years bachelor degree.
It requires post qualification (after MS) experience to file new labor under EB2.
It is always better to study MS , have new degree as well get benifitted if law changes adversely for 3 year degree.

That is not right. A US MS stands by itself irrespective of what the undergrad have been. If the job requires a Masters (and not BS + 5), a 3 year degree is not going to be an issue if you have a US Masters (from accredited university of course --- not the like of TVU)

[snthampi]

Congratulations to you and your family!

At last got the e-mail from USCIS :)

"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision
On September 7, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283. "

Waiting for "ordered production" mail.

EB3 PD July 01 2002; It has been 9 years 8 months :rolleyes: :)

[pns27]

Congratulations to you and your family!

Thank you

[pns27]

At last got the e-mail from USCIS :)

"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision
On September 7, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283. "

Waiting for "ordered production" mail.

EB3 PD July 01 2002; It has been 9 years 8 months :rolleyes: :)

Got the "Card production ordered" too :)

"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

On September 7, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. "

Thank you all.

[hpandey]

At last got the e-mail from USCIS :)

"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Decision
On September 7, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283. "

Waiting for "ordered production" mail.

EB3 PD July 01 2002; It has been 9 years 8 months :rolleyes: :)

Congrats on your approval...

[rakesh76]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[lfadgyas]

Demand Data Used in the Determination of Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates (Updated 9/9/2011) - is out for OCT/2011

[namjoshi]

I & many here would like to contact congressperson and request for support on immigration bill, But we always have these questions-

1-How to know who's my local congressperson ( San Jose, California )

2- Do we have a template here that we can modify & use to contact our local congressperson

3-What is the effective mode of contact (email/ letter )?

[rkg000]

I & many here would like to contact congressperson and request for support on immigration bill, But we always have these questions-

1-How to know who's my local congressperson ( San Jose, California )

2- Do we have a template here that we can modify & use to contact our local congressperson

3-What is the effective mode of contact (email/ letter )?

Join your State IV chapter and get guidance on this. Its more effective when we speak with one voice and one goal.

[manchala]

We all respect those who are in active advocacy and those who spend their time in meeting lawmakers on behalf of all of us. Promoting advocacy does not require condemnation or unwarranted criticism of predictions and calculations every time. This is one thing that helps to bring clarity and reality to peoples lives. Here all of us collect to collectively to help answer our friends question so anything that harms this initiative is counter productive in every sense.

Correct. Information is weath. After this level of detailed information is available we are now sure what is the pace Eb3/EB2 will be moving going forward. It can only get worse because of the reduction in spillover and porting(EB2 will be clogged and EB3 already has an issue - Again I am not against porting). We need to act upon this and start participating in advocacy(anything that you will be able to do to help yourself and the whole community). This information should drive us to the proper action instead of negative thinking. No one here can dictate on what you should be doing. Anyone who is asking us to participate is in advocacy is not against predictions but to tell everyone that we know the problem now and we need to work together to solve it.

[saji007]

Visa Bulletin For October 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html)

[vikki_s]

Visa Bulletin For October 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html)

EB2 I : 15JUL07
EB3I : 15JUL02

[saarejahanseaccha]

Visa Bulletin For October 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html)

[namjoshi]

a leap of 3 months in EB2-I sounds v favorable (as on today). Teddy and other experts - any comments ?

[TeddyKoochu]

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

[Rb_newsletter]

a leap of 3 months in EB2-I sounds v favorable (as on today). Teddy and other experts - any comments ?

Excerpt from visa bulletin
Employment Second:

China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

NB: @namjoshi and others, a kind request. Please don't keep asking for comments. Members will comment if they have to.

[forever_waiting]

3 months is a good movement. Congrats to those who are current. Is this the big surge we were expecting in the last bulletin? The last bulletin stayed stagnant trying to balance out some peaks in EB1 demand so they probably wanted to get over that before considering a big intake. But then is this that expected big intake before he retros back and tries to figure out annual spillover in Q3, Q4. I hope not.

[saarejahanseaccha]

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

Sorry to hear that Teddy, you have been great all along and I wish all the best.

[harrydr]

The demand data shows 8350 applicants prior to January 1, 2011 and 8075 prior to January1, 2008. My confussion is since the dates never moved to January 1st 2011, how did the candidates filed for 485 to increase the demand.

The only scenario possible is that this demand is the number of I-140's filed and not I-485's.
This also means that since the dates have now moved to July, 2007, this will increase the demand. Hence, the demand of 8075 might move to 10000.

Please give you feedback on this.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends thanks for your very kind words. Iam happy to finally come this close I need another 2 weeks of movement but Iam seriously hopeful that there will be more testing of the waters. This bulletin passed the litmus test in flying colors.

Based on the below note I believe that the fresh intake will be to atleast have the intake total to match this year’s SOFAD. So say if this year’s SOFAD was 30K then looks like CO will like to have a buffer of 30K (Allowance for porting as 5K) in terms of total 485's for EB2 I/C. The 15% CP ratio is not valid for EB2 India. I believe that another fresh intake of 10K (Max 15K) is very likely but when it will happen is going to be entirely CO's discretion.

China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

[imm_pro]

i am finally current..

[tampacoolie]

EB3 India demand data indicates that net reduction of 1,250 from the last month. Does it mean that EB3 India folks are porting at the rate of 1000 per month? Or was it just anomaly of one month? Virtually no chance of spillover for EB3 India , aside from regular 233 monthly quota, the excess reduction on EB3 India is due to porting or rejection or withdrawals. According to demand data fine print, porting data won't show up immediately with EB2 India demand data immediately. So there must be some lag in between them. At what point porting becomes bottleneck for EB2 India movement? Chances are zero as long as there is around 20K SOFAD available for EB2 India.

Does anyone know why State Dept is rounding demand data with 5 instead of reporting the absolute demand numbers? Just curious. I have a decade to play around these numbers, if I stick around in this country.

Good luck for EB2 India folks getting current.

[tampacoolie]

The demand data shows 8350 applicants prior to January 1, 2011 and 8075 prior to January1, 2008. My confussion is since the dates never moved to January 1st 2011, how did the candidates filed for 485 to increase the demand.

The only scenario possible is that this demand is the number of I-140's filed and not I-485's.
This also means that since the dates have now moved to July, 2007, this will increase the demand. Hence, the demand of 8075 might move to 10000.

Please give you feedback on this.

This is due to folks who had filed during july 2007 visa fiasco whose priority between Jan 1, 2007 and 30th June 2007. 275 of them could have filed and still pending. The demand data is cumulative prior to 1st day of the year.

[rakesh76]

Congrats to those who became current.

Teddy, we are very closed to current. I missed it by 4 days.

[tampacoolie]

Congrats to those who became current.

Teddy, we are very closed to current. I missed it by 4 days.

I missed it by 4 years.:mad:

[TeddyKoochu]

EB3 India demand data indicates that net reduction of 1,250 from the last month. Does it mean that EB3 India folks are porting at the rate of 1000 per month? Or was it just anomaly of one month? Virtually no chance of spillover for EB3 India , aside from regular 233 monthly quota, the excess reduction on EB3 India is due to porting or rejection or withdrawals. According to demand data fine print, porting data won't show up immediately with EB2 India demand data immediately. So there must be some lag in between them. At what point porting becomes bottleneck for EB2 India movement? Chances are zero as long as there is around 20K SOFAD available for EB2 India.

Does anyone know why State Dept is rounding demand data with 5 instead of reporting the absolute demand numbers? Just curious. I have a decade to play around these numbers, if I stick around in this country.

Good luck for EB2 India folks getting current.

Last month’s movement represented ~ 1000 visa numbers so the demand data reduction for EB3 is perfectly in line. Looks like they left a very large chunk of numbers for the last few months. Also it seems that the inventory is not entirely accurate either people have got GC by other means or they have left, ported etc.

I missed it by 4 years.:mad:

By all means you should consider PD porting and be greened in a year’s time. There is still ~ 5K demand left in 2002, we are now entering a very dense zone. The dates will move by 1 – 2 week in every VB. The dates may settle somewhere near Nov 2002 in Sep 2012. If anyone’s PD is in 2003 please start preparing for porting ASAP.

[TeddyKoochu]

The demand data shows 8350 applicants prior to January 1, 2011 and 8075 prior to January1, 2008. My confussion is since the dates never moved to January 1st 2011, how did the candidates filed for 485 to increase the demand.

The only scenario possible is that this demand is the number of I-140's filed and not I-485's.
This also means that since the dates have now moved to July, 2007, this will increase the demand. Hence, the demand of 8075 might move to 10000.

Please give you feedback on this.

This actually a discrepancy in the report logic itself. Long back this topic was discussed these are actually cross chargeability cases with one person's case being under India and another being with a ROW country. These 125 folks will get their GC under the ROW quota. Experts please pitch in on this is what I could remember from the last discussion on this subject.

[TeddyKoochu]

Sorry to hear that Teddy, you have been great all along and I wish all the best.

Thanks for your kind words. Congrats on being current. Congrats to everyone who is current.

Congrats to those who became current.

Teddy, we are very closed to current. I missed it by 4 days.

Don't worry my friend, we can see the light now ! We will be there very soon. I believe there will be more intake but it is entirely USCIS / DOS discretion when it will happen. All the best.

[hbk]

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

Hi Teddy,

All the best you will be current soon.
So based on this bulletin & movement i.e. Jul-15-07 when you think(best guess) date will past September-15-2007 for EB2 India ? Do you think I will be able to file I-485 atleast as my PD is September-15-2007 EB2-India.

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

[gc_on_demand]

This actually a discrepancy in the report logic itself. Long back this topic was discussed these are actually cross chargeability cases with one person's case being under India and another being with a ROW country. These 125 folks will get their GC under the ROW quota. Experts please pitch in on this is what I could remember from the last discussion on this subject.

These are CP cases who are documentary qualified whose PD is after Jan 2008 and till today.

[Leo07]

I really wish & pray that you will be current soon.

Thanks again for the message!
Thanks for your kind words. Congrats on being current. Congrats to everyone who is current.



Don't worry my friend, we can see the light now ! We will be there very soon. I believe there will be more intake but it is entirely USCIS / DOS discretion when it will happen. All the best.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

All the best you will be current soon.
So based on this bulletin & movement i.e. Jul-15-07 when you think(best guess) date will past September-15-2007 for EB2 India ? Do you think I will be able to file I-485 atleast as my PD is September-15-2007 EB2-India.

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

Friends this is a million dollar question. Normally all predictions and calculations are done based on consumption rates from all sources however we are not into the next year yet. So lets analyze things in a qualitative way.

The guiding principle is that this year’s SOFAD has been ~ 30K so at all times they should have 30K 485's available.

Now let’s analyze what’s in the system. There is currently 8.5K published demand and the PWMB intake will be ~ 3.5K. This makes it 12K.

We will have atleast 4-6K porting, lets average to 5K. Porting cases are the easiest to approve. So with this ~ 17K demand is there in the system.

CP and local office demand in the system is virtually nothing. Now what’s left is a 13K intake.

There are 2 scenarios now.

There is another intake next month, CO cannot keep the dates at this level for long, the dates have to move back before more 485's can ripen. My guess is that we are in the heaviest zone and EB2 I/C is atleast 2.5 - 3K a month. Based on this if CO takes intake it can go maximum to 31st December 2007, going into 2008 will be very hard.

Next month the dates retrogress, then they may stay there for another quarter or 2 quarters and then the next batch of intake will be more calculated. Any calculated intake will always be lesser than any knee jerk or flashy intake.

Regardless anyone before Oct 2007 should be fairly certain about both EAD and GC this year. Oct 2007 - Dec 2007 may likely get EAD / AP for GC they are borderline. As time goes on this will be revised so nothing is in stone for now. Let’s all hope for the best. Congratulations once again for everyone who is current. I know that everyone’s concern now is more about getting EAD in the near term than GC. 2011 represents the peak of SOFAD for that kind of momentum to continue something phenomenal may happen. The way we can read it is by measuring the rates of EB2 and EB1. Let’s wait, watch and hope for the best in this regard. For now the dates entering 2008 is a very long shot but it’s not impossible.

[TeddyKoochu]

These are CP cases who are documentary qualified whose PD is after Jan 2008 and till today.

Thanks a lot for clarifying, so these folks had some kind of pre-adjudication because they have submitted the fee.

I really wish & pray that you will be current soon.

Thanks again for the message!

Thanks Leo, I hope it happens soon now! Realistically it could be 1 to 6 months. All is ok now in this journey after coming so close.

[vbkris77]

What is the best average salary for EB2 qualification. Can we assume $75K per anum is good number? If so 3K is slightly higher per month number for EB2IC. Also if I remember correctly DOL started acting funny from June 2007. They closed Chicago center around 1q 2008 fully and Atlanta wasn't approving any cases. There were significant denials during this time around. 2008 was also dull. We all know 2009 is really bad.

Even though we don't here a lot on forums, a lot of people were laid off during these 2 years. Some gave up and moved back.

Known porting cases would have already been given GC in previous year's quota, and new porting would take some time.

Also I haven't seen significant reduction in EB3I backlog cases in any of the last four years. Not all could be due to inaccurate data. So I would only give 2K for new porting this year.

These days it is really difficult to get a job that can offer a new EB2 right away also.

Beyond all, 2004 to 2006 were best years. It took 2 years to clear all those numbers. There is average 18 months movement in EB2 IC cutoff dates for last four years.

Considering all those, I think middle of 2008 would be a decent cutoff date in my view..

Pls. let me know if these points make sense?




Friends this is a million dollar question. Normally all predictions and calculations are done based on consumption rates from all sources however we are not into the next year yet. So lets analyze things in a qualitative way.

The guiding principle is that this year’s SOFAD has been ~ 30K so at all times they should have 30K 485's available.

Now let’s analyze what’s in the system. There is currently 8.5K published demand and the PWMB intake will be ~ 3.5K. This makes it 12K.

We will have atleast 4-6K porting, lets average to 5K. Porting cases are the easiest to approve. So with this ~ 17K demand is there in the system.

CP and local office demand in the system is virtually nothing. Now what’s left is a 13K intake.

There are 2 scenarios now.

There is another intake next month, CO cannot keep the dates at this level for long, the dates have to move back before more 485's can ripen. My guess is that we are in the heaviest zone and EB2 I/C is atleast 2.5 - 3K a month. Based on this if CO takes intake it can go maximum to 31st December 2007, going into 2008 will be very hard.

Next month the dates retrogress, then they may stay there for another quarter or 2 quarters and then the next batch of intake will be more calculated. Any calculated intake will always be lesser than any knee jerk or flashy intake.

Regardless anyone before Oct 2007 should be fairly certain about both EAD and GC this year. Oct 2007 - Dec 2007 may likely get EAD / AP for GC they are borderline. As time goes on this will be revised so nothing is in stone for now. Let’s all hope for the best. Congratulations once again for everyone who is current. I know that everyone’s concern now is more about getting EAD in the near term than GC. 2011 represents the peak of SOFAD for that kind of momentum to continue something phenomenal may happen. The way we can read it is by measuring the rates of EB2 and EB1. Let’s wait, watch and hope for the best in this regard. For now the dates entering 2008 is a very long shot but it’s not impossible.

[gc_on_demand]

What is the best average salary for EB2 qualification. Can we assume $75K per anum is good number? If so 3K is slightly higher per month number for EB2IC. Also if I remember correctly DOL started acting funny from June 2007. They closed Chicago center around 1q 2008 fully and Atlanta wasn't approving any cases. There were significant denials during this time around. 2008 was also dull. We all know 2009 is really bad.

Even though we don't here a lot on forums, a lot of people were laid off during these 2 years. Some gave up and moved back.

Known porting cases would have already been given GC in previous year's quota, and new porting would take some time.

Also I haven't seen significant reduction in EB3I backlog cases in any of the last four years. Not all could be due to inaccurate data. So I would only give 2K for new porting this year.

These days it is really difficult to get a job that can offer a new EB2 right away also.

Beyond all, 2004 to 2006 were best years. It took 2 years to clear all those numbers. There is average 18 months movement in EB2 IC cutoff dates for last four years.

Considering all those, I think middle of 2008 would be a decent cutoff date in my view..

Pls. let me know if these points make sense?

Less demand will be from after first q of 2008. I still do believe that there are average 2-2.3k per month from July - Dec 2007 which is close to 10 - 12k , there are 8k known demand so far . That brings 20k and if SOFAD was 30k excluding porting than it can easily go up to Mid 2008 which match with NVC fees receipt notices.

But this is all theory , as you mentioned there might be cases who moved back , lost job and haven't start new gc process or are in pending stage etc.. so it should go till July - September 2008.

I still want to be conservative based on what DOS has done previously.

[TeddyKoochu]

What is the best average salary for EB2 qualification. Can we assume $75K per anum is good number? If so 3K is slightly higher per month number for EB2IC. Also if I remember correctly DOL started acting funny from June 2007. They closed Chicago center around 1q 2008 fully and Atlanta wasn't approving any cases. There were significant denials during this time around. 2008 was also dull. We all know 2009 is really bad.

Even though we don't here a lot on forums, a lot of people were laid off during these 2 years. Some gave up and moved back.

Known porting cases would have already been given GC in previous year's quota, and new porting would take some time.

Also I haven't seen significant reduction in EB3I backlog cases in any of the last four years. Not all could be due to inaccurate data. So I would only give 2K for new porting this year.

These days it is really difficult to get a job that can offer a new EB2 right away also.

Beyond all, 2004 to 2006 were best years. It took 2 years to clear all those numbers. There is average 18 months movement in EB2 IC cutoff dates for last four years.

Considering all those, I think middle of 2008 would be a decent cutoff date in my view..

Pls. let me know if these points make sense?

I read somewhere that 80-85K is the median salary in IT. However 75K would be a very fair number to assume. 3K may be top of the line but I believe it won't be less than 2.5K. EB3-India inventory was the method of porting calculation however due to the merging of local office demand increased the inventory again. For the sake of assumption lets average porting to 4K, 2K maybe too low. This makes 15K already in and in the best case scenario another 15K to get. If we assume 3K a month then its till the end of 2007, however this year represented an unprecedented peak in SOFAD, we can probably expect 20-25K only next year so the range of extra intake with some buffer comes to ~ 10K. This way even with say 2K only 5 more months is possible. For any kind of movement to 2008 the best of the best case scenarios must happen like 20K extra demand has to be taken and there are only 2K per month for EB2 I/C. In that light mid 2008 looks tough now, but it’s not impossible. The approval trend in the first quarter will hold the key.

[gclabor07]

I missed it by 2 days, July 16.

Thanks for your kind words. Congrats on being current. Congrats to everyone who is current.



Don't worry my friend, we can see the light now ! We will be there very soon. I believe there will be more intake but it is entirely USCIS / DOS discretion when it will happen. All the best.

[gc_on_demand]

OCT movement is not Building pipeline or Q spill over its annual quota of Eb2 I/C, If you look at USCIS pending data and DOS demand data , DOS always little lower than USCIS data. For this movement DOS applied 6k as per USCIS which could be 5.6k DOS which is annual supply of EB2 I/C.

There are two thing which indicate there will not be huge movement in coming bulletins. There will be small gradual movement. CO mentioned that date will slow or stop and retro is remote possibility. If they do rapid movement in next bulletin, there is no way they can keep same date till last Q, when I say rapid means end of 2007 or few months in 2008. If they do that then it contradict his statement that date will slow or stop since no way DOS can allocate 20k more from now to last q. Also CO mentioned that retro is remote possibility so he doesn't want to make huge movement and retro back to 2007 , so don't expect date will swing over two years span.

What can happen is with anticipation CO will move date to 3 more months which will satisfy by Q1 spillover in Jan/Feb. Again depends on visas left he will stop or slow movement and make another 3-4 months move in March 2012 which should be good till end of Sep 2012. This way chances of retro is remote , date will stop / slow in either end or beginning of each Q.

We all know when it was rapid movement in May 2011 which translated into 2-3 months. so it will be same , by dec 2011 date will move till Oct 2007 and By March 2012 it will be somewhere between Oc2007 - March 2008 depends on left over from EB1 / EB2 row and EB5. I don't believe it will cross first Q1 of 2008. Sorry to be so pessimistic.

Hope everyone get their GC soon but this is clear sign of Q spill over. :):):)

[PrinceVA]

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

TK, As usual, USCIS did something that no one could predict. Sad to hear that you missed for few days. I am one of those PWMB and can surely understand your pain. I wish you get current soon, again.

I hv a question.

1. Should I start process for filing 485 now ? I assume, if dates will go back, it will go back in next month only. So I hv almost a month to file all my docs. Can the dates retrogate before too ?
2. Any Good Immigration lawyer in NJ area ? I dont want my case to be screwed up, again, as my company attorney did in 2007.
3. If someone has link to all docs, ( I even donno which documents to file after getting current ). Will be great if you can guide me. There are many who did it recently with recent forward movement in PD, if they can guide me.

And, thanx for keeping us alive. I almost despaired from this immigration journey.

[GCHope2011]

Folks,

You all might be aware that the Prevailing Wage Determination had stopped for the last couple of months, and even now, it is trickling in very very slowly. What this means is that a major portion of ROW demand that would have otherwise gone for using up around 19K visas (assuming 7K spillover per-quarter & assuming EB1 does not require PWD) would actually not be used this quarter.

Now, is the slowdown continues, then more visas would remain unused, thereby increasing the spillover volume. Even if it resumes and comes back at the normal pace, there is already few months slowdown that would guarantee spillovers (unless they resume at a furious pace to make up the lost time).

Does this sound reasonable to expect this year?

[vinodindia]

Friends thanks for your very kind words. Iam happy to finally come this close I need another 2 weeks of movement but Iam seriously hopeful that there will be more testing of the waters. This bulletin passed the litmus test in flying colors.

Based on the below note I believe that the fresh intake will be to atleast have the intake total to match this year’s SOFAD. So say if this year’s SOFAD was 30K then looks like CO will like to have a buffer of 30K (Allowance for porting as 5K) in terms of total 485's for EB2 I/C. The 15% CP ratio is not valid for EB2 India. I believe that another fresh intake of 10K (Max 15K) is very likely but when it will happen is going to be entirely CO's discretion.

China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Basically by saying "distinct possibility", DoS is saying Retrogression is very much possible this year and it is reasonably so. With a demand of 5000 as of Sep 8th 2011 and the total actual availability of 2803 for the current fiscal year, there is no reason to think why the dates won't retrogress in the next couple of months. As much as it is hard to digress, I think dates moving beyond 15 July 07 in the upcoming bulletins until April 2012 is remote. When there is a spill over in July 2012, it is definite that the dates will start to move further. But who knows....Let us just hope for the best.

On a personal note, Teddy - Sorry that you missed it by few days and I hope you get current in the next bulletin. As you said, the movement is definitely a positive but in the spirit of developing a pipeline moving it just by 3 months is just way too cautious. Atleast a six month to one year movement of dates would have helped.

[pappu]

TK, As usual, USCIS did something that no one could predict. Sad to hear that you missed for few days. I am one of those PWMB and can surely understand your pain. I wish you get current soon, again.

I hv a question.

1. Should I start process for filing 485 now ? I assume, if dates will go back, it will go back in next month only. So I hv almost a month to file all my docs. Can the dates retrogate before too ?
2. Any Good Immigration lawyer in NJ area ? I dont want my case to be screwed up, again, as my company attorney did in 2007.
3. If someone has link to all docs, ( I even donno which documents to file after getting current ). Will be great if you can guide me. There are many who did it recently with recent forward movement in PD, if they can guide me.

And, thanx for keeping us alive. I almost despaired from this immigration journey.

This VB is in lines with what was discussed last month with them. IV had presented some suggestions and data that helped demonstrate how advancing dates will help the community with I485 benefits and better utilization of numbers. Some of it was told to the donor members in our updates. IV is going to be talking next month again to find the number of new filings that have happened to increase the pipeline. This will help understand the future movements in the remaining quarters. Our focus is to have faster movement and allowing more people to file I485 applications. This becomes more important for people who missed the July 2007 window. Please use this thread to understand the extent of backlogs and then help IV in its advocacy efforts. There is a lot going on and we need everyone's active support.

[pappu]

Basically by saying "distinct possibility", DoS is saying Retrogression is very much possible this year and it is reasonably so. With a demand of 5000 as of Sep 8th 2011 and the total actual availability of 2803 for the current fiscal year, there is no reason to think why the dates won't retrogress in the next couple of months. As much as it is hard to digress, I think dates moving beyond 15 July 07 in the upcoming bulletins until April 2012 is remote. When there is a spill over in July 2012, it is definite that the dates will start to move further. But who knows....Let us just hope for the best.

On a personal note, Teddy - Sorry that you missed it by few days and I hope you get current in the next bulletin. As you said, the movement is definitely a positive but in the spirit of developing a pipeline moving it just by 3 months is just way too cautious. Atleast a six month to one year movement of dates would have helped.

6 month is a difficult move but not impossible from our conversations. We want them to go way past the July 2007 PDs to allow more IV members file I485s. 1-3 months again is a possibility if they want to accept our suggestion and do incrementally. However it will all depend on the new filings for this month and next month. We will be talking next month to find that and hopefully can advocate for more movement in dates if not enough new filings have happened.

[vbkris77]

This VB is in lines with what was discussed last month with them. IV had presented some suggestions and data that helped demonstrate how advancing dates will help the community with I485 benefits and better utilization of numbers. Some of it was told to the donor members in our updates. IV is going to be talking next month again to find the number of new filings that have happened to increase the pipeline. This will help understand the future movements in the remaining quarters. Our focus is to have faster movement and allowing more people to file I485 applications. This becomes more important for people who missed the July 2007 window. Please use this thread to understand the extent of backlogs and then help IV in its advocacy efforts. There is a lot going on and we need everyone's active support.

Thanks for the follow-up on this. While it is important that they do their job very well, but as we have clearly told them shooting under will not be really helpful for them and could give a wrong perception of the data.

It is very important that they be very liberal in moving the cutoff dates.

[mzc123]

I could not believe it when I first read the Oct bulletin ... I was Current!!... after a long journey (11+ yrs and still waiting)... I can finally apply for 485 (one of PWMB .. thanks to ATL center to delay my labor approval during 2007 fiasco) .. and what a day to read the news... could not hope for any better day... came to know that I am current on my daughter's birthday!! :)

Thanks to everyone in this forum.. special thanks to Teddy and sorry to hear that you missed it by couple of weeks.. hang in there buddy... we will all cross the line one day!

Alright, now time to prepare the documents .. but first deserve some celebration :)

[pappu]

Chikna - Blindly contributing and trying to see results or bang for the buck is not going to happen. It is to make a decision to join your State Chapter, see what is going on, support the advocacy efforts and making monthly contributions. That is when you will see exactly where you money is being spent and how you are getting returns on your money.

Since, this is a predictions, calculations thread here is my question in the same lines

Question: Pappu, TD and other experts - Is the intent of these 3 months movement only to get PWMB applications or they are actually going to approve all the pending applications that they already have with them? In order to approve applications (they already have on file) they should have real numbers available and not some future demand preparation type numbers.

FYI: Funds for IV are contributions and not donations. Donations is for a cause that helps others. Fund transfers to help yourself is not referred to as Donation.It is not realistic to approve all current applications within the same month

[AshokApex]

Good job teddy,

I have been watching your thread, looks your are very close with October Bulletin,

after October now we ll see how going next bulletin for PD 2008, who missed boat?

what do you think about next one year , any hope to be come current, when do you think

PD 2008 can be current also.
my PD 2008 may EB2.

[peeku]

Missed by a day. but very hopeful since it has come so far...expecting it to move atleast a day next month.

[forever_waiting]

From what I have seen on previous posts by admins here, IV has frequently had communication/discussions with the powers to be not from the point of view of pestering USCIC/DoS but for seeking small fixes like faster VB movements, making i485 filing possible (seems difficult now). Apart from the admin fix route, of course legislative advocacy is always on IV's agenda. I hope you heard about the testimony in Senate in which IV was the only org which spoke about per-country cap removal..I dont think that ever happened in the past and such achievements do not happen without sustained advocacy and that is an expensive process! For the above representation alone, I think joining in the efforts is highly recommended (via donation, which is a personal choice, or otherwise..I have done the former recently). Of course, there are other sites which seek glory merely by mocking IV's efforts and becoming self-proclaimed "pundits" of god-knows-what but then they have to realize that we are only shooting ourselves in the foot by such methods.

coming to the vb - I personally think this was the big intake that we were hoping for to be much bigger. we thought it would be in the sep bulletin but CO indicated other demand then. now that might have evened out but I do not anticipate huge movements for hte next few months. We should see a few days/weeks at a time hopefully making good folks like Tk Current sooner rather than later.

I would like to contribute for a good cause. Question is how does my contribution help when my EB3 PD is 2005 and yet to file I-485? I need a better understanding of my hard earned money towards IV contribution. Thanks.

[gc_check]

I would like to contribute for a good cause. Question is how does my contribution help when my EB3 PD is 2005 and yet to file I-485? I need a better understanding of my hard earned money towards IV contribution. Thanks.

EB3 (India / China / Mexico) Applicants, Under the current rules and regulations / Immigration laws - Sadly is in a helpless situation. Any solution to this real problem needs to come from Congress or USCIS follow the old model (though it was not correct and they fixed it) for handling spill overs visas. With a congress that has approval rating of 13% and in this partition politics era where a President finds difficult to even find a date to give a Speech to join session of the congress and when a first time President started his next election campaign, from his first day in Office and the opposition looks to capture the presidency back, a tiny groups of volunteers with very few contributing / active members - getting a legislative change that helps is not as easy as people hope. I personally think, IV is successful in some areas and it does not happen to be something that EB3 sees benefits and frustration of waiting helplessly sometime makes us ask the questions, though we know the answer. IV is trying and trying, they might not have got results specific to E3, but in general they have many success and help that E3 might feel some things it if for them as well, might trickle in coming months /years. Part of it will be the process itself working (E2 becoming current for all - (long shot) but might happen) due factors like slow hiring resulting in lower demand. But you never know, a legislative solution might happen this year too prior to election year or might not until at least 2013.

I hope something happen soon that will help the worst affected EB3 as well :mad: Time will tell.

[allegator]

I am working on EAD for past three years. Since I do not have H1B any more, can I port to EB2.

By all means you should consider PD porting and be greened in a year’s time. There is still ~ 5K demand left in 2002, we are now entering a very dense zone. The dates will move by 1 – 2 week in every VB. The dates may settle somewhere near Nov 2002 in Sep 2012. If anyone’s PD is in 2003 please start preparing for porting ASAP.[/QUOTE]

[pd052009]

Good job teddy,

I have been watching your thread, looks your are very close with October Bulletin,

after October now we ll see how going next bulletin for PD 2008, who missed boat?

what do you think about next one year , any hope to be come current, when do you think

PD 2008 can be current also.
my PD 2008 may EB2.

Just wondering... how did you submit your I-140 in Apr 2008 while you PD is May 2008?

[theshiningsun]

oct 2011 visa bulletin is out.

EB2 I/C: 15 Jul'07
EB3 ROW: 08 Dec'05
EB3C: 08 Aug'04
EB3I: 15 Jul'02

source: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html

thx

[TeddyKoochu]

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline.

@vbkris / gc_on_demand both of you mention the bad state of affairs in 2008, how many people do you think who filed for their labors and got them approved actually went back, this is significant to determine if at all the dates can move to 2008. If this number is high closer to 50% then only the chances are high enough otherwise if its 25% then it’s close to normal levels anyway as all models assume a 25% loss from perm to 485. I believe accurate perm calculations are more important than ever before but agencies themselves believe that testing the waters in a guarded manner and get 485 intake is the best way forward.

[gc_on_demand]

Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts.

- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.

- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.

- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.

- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline.

@vbkris / gc_on_demand both of you mention the bad state of affairs in 2008, how many people do you think who filed for their labors and got them approved actually went back, this is significant to determine if at all the dates can move to 2008. If this number is high closer to 50% then only the chances are high enough otherwise if its 25% then it’s close to normal levels anyway as all models assume a 25% loss from perm to 485. I believe accurate perm calculations are more important than ever before but agencies themselves believe that testing the waters in a guarded manner and get 485 intake is the best way forward.

Is there any evidence so far to say that EB1 will be more this year ? I understand we were assuming that because of Kazarian memo in early 2011 there were so many EB1 at pause state and we were hoping that all those unused no will fall to EB2. But in last two bulletin Aug / Sep USCIS resumed those EB1 and clear them out most of them, I read some where that people with July 2011 EB1 app are getting GC which indicates that USCIS does n't have lots of pending EB1. Also clearing EB1 in last two months halt EB2 IC movement. Unless I miss something can please share your thoughts on this one ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Is there any evidence so far to say that EB1 will be more this year ? I understand we were assuming that because of Kazarian memo in early 2011 there were so many EB1 at pause state and we were hoping that all those unused no will fall to EB2. But in last two bulletin Aug / Sep USCIS resumed those EB1 and clear them out most of them, I read some where that people with July 2011 EB1 app are getting GC which indicates that USCIS does n't have lots of pending EB1. Also clearing EB1 in last two months halt EB2 IC movement. Unless I miss something can please share your thoughts on this one ?

You are right that there was a pause state on Eb1 due to the Kazarian memo however the input application volume has not come down. If we look at the dashboard there has been a huge surge in all approvals which will proportionately have EB1 as well. So yes the timelines have come down from 8 months to a few months. It’s good that a lot of these cases got approved from last years cap, however do you believe that the entire backlog is done probably the story is 50-50, I think the resurgence will continue till Q1 2012 atleast. The I140 rates are peaking completions far exceed the receipts, though the agencies are doing their job but a greater flow hurts SOFAD.

[forever_waiting]

Welcome to the forum. Read TeddyKoochu's summary on the first page and you will get an idea on where things stand.
The way things are going, it seems like we will just get through 2007 applications during FY2012 (oct 2011 to sep 2012). With some luck and additional spillover from EB1/EB2-ROW we might get into 2008 but it is too early to predict that. Overall we have around 80,000-90,000 pending EB2IC applications from July 2007 just until end of 2010. With an annual allotment of only around 6000 to these two categories, you can figure out how much we are dependent on spillovers.
For your PD, its really difficult to predict since we are pretty much at the mercy of spillovers every year unless there is some legislative change that helps the retrogressed categories.
Usually its good to use a 5-6 year thumb rule. So if your PD is march 2011, it looks like your turn might come somewhere in 2016 or 2017. At this poing I485/EAD filing is not likely to occur unless your PD is current...a repeat of July 2007 (where people got to file I485/EADs before the VB retrogressed) seems unlikely at this point.

I just joined IV couple months back. I am from India, EB2, with a PD of Mar 2011. When Can I expect to file for EAD or to get Greened? Thanks for the reply!

[MrHyderabad]

Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year


Teddy,
Can you please elaborate on the above statement?

My PD is July 25th, 2007. Still waiting to file 485...

Is there any chance that i will be able to file 485 and get EAD (GC would be even better :-)) by Dec 2011 as per your previous post ?

[shouldIwait]

Following is my empirical analysis based upon demand data.

Demand data for this month is 5K. With the three month movement in this bulletin it would add approximately another 4K to the demand. This is as per Teddy's calculation. So, that determines the known portion of the demand.

Now, based upon PERM data analysis for post-fiasco applications that I have posted earlier, PWMB in this three month span is about 5K. Adding all up, we should see demand to increase to 14000 minus 250 for the monthly approvals as they aren't expected to apply any spillover now. If next month's demand data comes out to be lower than that we would know the approximate no. of drop-outs within the PWMB population. Within the folks that got EAD during fiasco are expected to have very low drop-out rate.

Teddy and other gurus,

Does this sound right ? Or can you drill any holes through it.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Can you please elaborate on the above statement?

My PD is July 25th, 2007. Still waiting to file 485...

Is there any chance that i will be able to file 485 and get EAD (GC would be even better :-)) by Dec 2011 as per your previous post ?

This year means Sep 2012, don’t worry my friend we will make it.

Following is my empirical analysis based upon demand data.

Demand data for this month is 5K. With the three month movement in this bulletin it would add approximately another 4K to the demand. This is as per Teddy's calculation. So, that determines the known portion of the demand.

Now, based upon PERM data analysis for post-fiasco applications that I have posted earlier, PWMB in this three month span is about 5K. Adding all up, we should see demand to increase to 14000 minus 250 for the monthly approvals as they aren't expected to apply any spillover now. If next month's demand data comes out to be lower than that we would know the approximate no. of drop-outs within the PWMB population. Within the folks that got EAD during fiasco are expected to have very low drop-out rate.

Teddy and other gurus,

Does this sound right ? Or can you drill any holes through it.

Next months demand data should come out between 12.5 - 13K for EB2 I/C.

[shouldIwait]

Next months demand data should come out between 12.5 - 13K for EB2 I/C.

So, do you mean that you already expect the drop-outs to be 1000-1500 or that my calculations are off?

[TeddyKoochu]

So, do you mean that you already expect the drop-outs to be 1000-1500 or that my calculations are off?

Current EB2 I/C Inventory is 8.5K we should be expecting an addition of ~ 3.5 - 4K this will push the inventory to 12-13K range.

[pappu]

Current EB2 I/C Inventory is 8.5K we should be expecting an addition of ~ 3.5 - 4K this will push the inventory to 12-13K range.

The surge in dates for oct or subsequent months should not be counted as increase in demand in my opinion. Based on our conversations and and our suggestions, the dates have been advanced only to judge new filings. So your calculations could become off if the movements are used as indicators. We are planning to talk again next month to know feedback and plans to allow more filings. More i485 filings will help our iv community get ead benefits while they wait.

[dinearok]

Current EB2 I/C Inventory is 8.5K we should be expecting an addition of ~ 3.5 - 4K this will push the inventory to 12-13K range.

Teddy and all - How do we know how many people filed PERM after July 15 2007.. I believe the PERM statistics posted in FLCDataCenter.com (http://www.flcdatacenter.com) show only the decision date.
I believe in late 2007/2008 and even most of 2009, the PERM application took almost a year or so to approve...

[pardesibabu]

Guys,

What is the expected timeframe for people whose PD early 2010 to become current? My PD is April end 2010, do you guys think I can expect my PD to become current by end of 2012?

[gc_on_demand]

Guys,

What is the expected timeframe for people whose PD early 2010 to become current? My PD is April end 2010, do you guys think I can expect my PD to become current by end of 2012?

No it will be 2014 end for u if you are Lucky. Join iv for your own benefits

[dkshitij]

The surge in dates for oct or subsequent months should not be counted as increase in demand in my opinion. Based on our conversations and and our suggestions, the dates have been advanced only to judge new filings. So your calculations could become off if the movements are used as indicators. We are planning to talk again next month to know feedback and plans to allow more filings. More i485 filings will help our iv community get ead benefits while they wait.

Pappu, thank you for doing this.

[TeddyKoochu]

The surge in dates for oct or subsequent months should not be counted as increase in demand in my opinion. Based on our conversations and and our suggestions, the dates have been advanced only to judge new filings. So your calculations could become off if the movements are used as indicators. We are planning to talk again next month to know feedback and plans to allow more filings. More i485 filings will help our iv community get ead benefits while they wait.

Pappu thanks for your follow up and discussions with USCIS. This really helps the community. Most of us on the other side of the Jul 07 line including me are really looking for filing 485 near term, actual GC can wait. With regards the predictions itself we look at the inventory as a reference point only for all SOFAD calculations we look at the consumption rates of EB1 and EB2 ROW and match to the inventory so in the right earnest will start looking from Oct. I believe the agencies must maintain a buffer of 30K for 485. I read something interesting to suggest that the agencies might look to use the FB method of intake to EB, they move the dates forward in the first 3 months of Q1 to get the intake and retrogress. If a similar thing were to happen then there is a very good chance that the intake will cover the entire year 2007. If the intake happens later then it will be more guarded and calculated.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy and all - How do we know how many people filed PERM after July 15 2007.. I believe the PERM statistics posted in FLCDataCenter.com (http://www.flcdatacenter.com) show only the decision date.
I believe in late 2007/2008 and even most of 2009, the PERM application took almost a year or so to approve...

The perm case number has the filing date Julian date, you can use that. Also the data for the same year will be dispersed in different files so you will have to reconcile that.

[hbk]

Friends this is a million dollar question. Normally all predictions and calculations are done based on consumption rates from all sources however we are not into the next year yet. So lets analyze things in a qualitative way.

The guiding principle is that this year’s SOFAD has been ~ 30K so at all times they should have 30K 485's available.

Now let’s analyze what’s in the system. There is currently 8.5K published demand and the PWMB intake will be ~ 3.5K. This makes it 12K.

We will have atleast 4-6K porting, lets average to 5K. Porting cases are the easiest to approve. So with this ~ 17K demand is there in the system.

CP and local office demand in the system is virtually nothing. Now what’s left is a 13K intake.

There are 2 scenarios now.

There is another intake next month, CO cannot keep the dates at this level for long, the dates have to move back before more 485's can ripen. My guess is that we are in the heaviest zone and EB2 I/C is atleast 2.5 - 3K a month. Based on this if CO takes intake it can go maximum to 31st December 2007, going into 2008 will be very hard.

Next month the dates retrogress, then they may stay there for another quarter or 2 quarters and then the next batch of intake will be more calculated. Any calculated intake will always be lesser than any knee jerk or flashy intake.

Regardless anyone before Oct 2007 should be fairly certain about both EAD and GC this year. Oct 2007 - Dec 2007 may likely get EAD / AP for GC they are borderline. As time goes on this will be revised so nothing is in stone for now. Let’s all hope for the best. Congratulations once again for everyone who is current. I know that everyone’s concern now is more about getting EAD in the near term than GC. 2011 represents the peak of SOFAD for that kind of momentum to continue something phenomenal may happen. The way we can read it is by measuring the rates of EB2 and EB1. Let’s wait, watch and hope for the best in this regard. For now the dates entering 2008 is a very long shot but it’s not impossible.

Teddy,

Once again many thanks for the response.
I hope & wish you a good luck as you are very very close to file 485. Best wishes....

As you mentioned above that everybody with PD before Oct-2007 should be able file 485 this year(before Sep-2012).
If possible can you give your best & worse case prediction for when date to cross Sep-15-2007 in this fiscal year of 2012 !!?

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Once again many thanks for the response.
I hope & wish you a good luck as you are very very close to file 485. Best wishes....

As you mentioned above that everybody with PD before Oct-2007 should be able file 485 this year(before Sep-2012).
If possible can you give your best & worse case prediction for when date to cross Sep-15-2007 in this fiscal year of 2012 !!?

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - Dec - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.

[vinodindia]

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - Dec - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.

TK - Good job with reducing the noise in this thread. Let us move on to some good discussion for which this thread was originated.

As of Sep 8th '11, EB2I demand is 5000 and assuming PWMBs between 15th Apr to 15th Jul '07 to be 3000, the total pending to begin Oct '11 processing is 8K for EB2I. Approx 233 gets used every month and going by that theory, it will take atleast until Apr 2012 for the spill over to kick-in before DoS can open any fresh dates for EB2I. Is that not a correct line of thinking?

[rodnyb]

It looks like we may have another 3-month movement coming next month.
1. FB has similar movement last year to take in new pipeline. DOS has to consider CIS processing time (4-8 months) to get new apps ready for approval to use ~30K spillover.
2. Chinese forum said CO is considering that quarterly SO. (from a Chinese friend, please translate if someone can)
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(EB2EB3)(EB23)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com) (http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/EB23.html)

The issue/question:
1. Will those before July-15-07 get approved? It seems will use up all regular EB2I quota.. and how much CO is allocating the Q SO? 7-8K if we assume 30k for the whole year?
2. Can CIS do a better statistics?
3. Will we get some FB spillover this year? We have over 13K in 2011
4. Will EB1 and EN2 ROW still low this year? Will CIS crack down misuse of EB1?
5. Did they waste visa numbers this year (2011)?

[Rb_newsletter]

Excerpt from visa bulletin

Employment Second:
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.


I was wondering what was the exact meaning of 'distinct possibility'. I googled and found the below link. As per the link, meaning for 'distinct possibility' is definite possibility. Just thought of sharing with others.

a distinct possibility - WordReference Forums (http://forum.wordreference.com/showthread.php?t=700743)

[staln]

I was wondering what was the exact meaning of 'distinct possibility'. I googled and found the below link. As per the link, meaning for 'distinct possibility' is definite possibility. Just thought of sharing with others.

a distinct possibility - WordReference Forums (http://forum.wordreference.com/showthread.php?t=700743)

I was reading it as distant but now I am clear. Hope that doesn't happen

[skpanda]

I was wondering what was the exact meaning of 'distinct possibility'. I googled and found the below link. As per the link, meaning for 'distinct possibility' is definite possibility. Just thought of sharing with others.

a distinct possibility - WordReference Forums (http://forum.wordreference.com/showthread.php?t=700743)


Yes it means that it is clearly/obviously possible... obvious because... this movement is only to take new apps.

[TeddyKoochu]

Yes it means that it is clearly/obviously possible... obvious because... this movement is only to take new apps.

A friend there is a definite possibility of more intake, the agencies need to maintain a safe buffer of ~ 30K in terms of 485, movement between Oct - Dec 2007 is a distinct possibility. Some part of the movement will likely happen in the November bulletin. Good luck to everyone waiting to file for 485.

[smuggymba]

TK,
Aern't there lesser apps in 2008 and 2009 ; where do you think we would be in Sep 2013.

[pappu]

I was reading it as distant but now I am clear. Hope that doesn't happen

It could happen. We want the dates to move sooner than later. One of the side effects ( good or bad is your own choice) of taking more applications is this and also not being able to fully follow FIFO. The good side is people getting approved ASAP and more people applying 485

[TeddyKoochu]

TK,
Aern't there lesser apps in 2008 and 2009 ; where do you think we would be in Sep 2013.

The applications are less from Q4 2008, 2008 Q1 - Q3 is quite dense. From the current point to Q4 2008 it will be a slow ride and then things can pick up if SOFAD remains the same.

[smuggymba]

The applications are less from Q4 2008, 2008 Q1 - Q3 is quite dense. From the current point to Q4 2008 it will be a slow ride and then things can pick up if SOFAD remains the same.

so, where do you think we will be in Sep of 2013. I'm meeting Sen. Cornyn's staff again for this EB1 misuse thing soon.

[TeddyKoochu]

so, where do you think we will be in Sep of 2013. I'm meeting Sen. Cornyn's staff again for this EB1 misuse thing soon.

It should be around Dec 2008 at the current rate. The biggest question is will the current rate sustain; good news is that after that 2009 and 2010 may fold in a year’s time. Since there are too many variables involved we should go just 1 year at a time.

[sniffing]

Teddy-
When you say 2008 Q1-Q3 is quite dense, Do you have the count for Number of Applicants in these dates?

Thanks...

[yurma1974]

I looked at the http://www.flcdatacenter.com/[/URL], for PERM applications. This includes data for both EB2 and EB3, right? How can we differentiate between the two to get the better picture for each catogery as well as to better predict the advancement. Also, under Case Status, there are few statuses. To calculate how many people will actually get GC, should we count Certified as well as Certified- Expired?

[abybaby81]

All,

Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.


FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

Please refer to the table above.

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.

Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.

Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.

[srinibg]

The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)

[srinibg]

The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)
eb visa numbers over means?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy-
When you say 2008 Q1-Q3 is quite dense, Do you have the count for Number of Applicants in these dates?

Thanks...

The total number of EB2 I/C to till date from Jul 07 is ~ 80K. Out of that 40K including the current inventory to end of Q3 2008 is 40K and from there i.e Oct 2008 to Oct 2011 maybe 40K. So it’s a case of 40K people being within 14 months and then the same spanned over 36 months.

[letstalklc]

The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)
eb visa numbers over means?

Year 2011 quota is finished, so the cases that are eligible for GC from 15th Sep to 30th Sep can request on first working day of Year 2012 quota which is OCT 3.

[vinodindia]

All,

Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.


FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

Please refer to the table above.

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.

Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.

Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.

That sounds optimistic. Just one correction...FY'12 starts as of Oct bulletin and hence the start date is 15 July '07.

[sniffing]

Teddy,

Thank You! Assuming The Numbers move just like last 2 yrs.. wont the Eb2 backlog be cleared by this time next year?

Thank You..

[vinodindia]

The total number of EB2 I/C to till date from Jul 07 is ~ 80K. Out of that 40K including the current inventory to end of Q3 2008 is 40K and from there i.e Oct 2008 to Oct 2011 maybe 40K. So it’s a case of 40K people being within 14 months and then the same spanned over 36 months.

Fragomen global corporate immigration law | News and Resources United States (http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=1325)

Good news is that there is no wastage of Visas. Bad news is they ran out of numbers sooner than expected.

EB Immigrant Visa Numbers Unavailable Until October 1
September 15, 2011
The State Department has run out of immigrant visa numbers in all employment-based categories for this fiscal year. Until October 1, when next year’s visa quota becomes available, USCIS cannot approve any EB I-485 adjustment applications but foreign nationals can still submit them. Family-based adjustment applications are not affected.

The September Visa Bulletin – released on August 11 – projected that EB immigrant visas would be available throughout this month, but numbers ran out sooner because USCIS processed an unexpectedly large number of adjustment cases in early August.

When more EB immigrant visas become available on October 1, USCIS will process adjustment cases with priority dates that are current according to the October Visa Bulletin.

[TeddyKoochu]

Fragomen global corporate immigration law | News and Resources United States (http://www.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=1325)

Good news is that there is no wastage of Visas. Bad news is they ran out of numbers sooner than expected.

EB Immigrant Visa Numbers Unavailable Until October 1
September 15, 2011
The State Department has run out of immigrant visa numbers in all employment-based categories for this fiscal year. Until October 1, when next year’s visa quota becomes available, USCIS cannot approve any EB I-485 adjustment applications but foreign nationals can still submit them. Family-based adjustment applications are not affected.

The September Visa Bulletin – released on August 11 – projected that EB immigrant visas would be available throughout this month, but numbers ran out sooner because USCIS processed an unexpectedly large number of adjustment cases in early August.

When more EB immigrant visas become available on October 1, USCIS will process adjustment cases with priority dates that are current according to the October Visa Bulletin.

Thanks for posting the approvals on the other site are in fact double in Aug 2011 when compared with Aug 2010 for EB2 ROW and EB1.

EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44

EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18

EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22

EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Thank You! Assuming The Numbers move just like last 2 yrs.. wont the Eb2 backlog be cleared by this time next year?

Thank You..

The current backlog is equal to 3 years of SOFAD and there are new people coming in. So it will take years for the dates to be actually current. EB2 I/C folks will take 4-5 years.

[TeddyKoochu]

All,

Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.


FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

Please refer to the table above.

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.

Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.

Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.

The flaw in this assumption is that the dates across which the VB moved have equal number of EB2 I / C cases. The zone in which we are now has the heaviest density, so with the same numbers movement will be less.

[jayaprabha]

does this mean people who are current based on OCT visa bulletin might not be Greened this year? sorry I am not throughly understanding.

[hbk]

The flaw in this assumption is that the dates across which the VB moved have equal number of EB2 I / C cases. The zone in which we are now has the heaviest density, so with the same numbers movement will be less.

Hi Teddy,

As you mentioned in one of your previous post that "movement between Oct - Dec 2007 is a distinct possibility(Means it will happen for sure)" & now you are saying "The zone in which we are now has the heaviest density, so with the same numbers movement will be less." ? These 2 statements are related or not ?

Sorry if I misunderstood your explanation.

Will appreaciate your response.

Regards.

[srinibg]

does this mean people who are current based on OCT visa bulletin might not be Greened this year? sorry I am not throughly understanding.

Forget October bulletin...
People who have been current since august 1st that is current in august and September bulletin,'if they have not yet got their green card, even they won't get it.

Forget October bulletin!!!!

[vinodindia]

Analysis by immiInfo for Oct Bulletin.

Sepotember 15, 2011 ImmInfo Newsletter: Speculation about the October Visa Bulletin (http://imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-9-15/speculation-october-vb.html)

"Since there were very few eligible cases that were not filed by that date, the demand for the balance of 2007 is likely to be much lighter than usual. This suggests that we will see more rapid that usual cutoff date movement in the months ahead due to lower demand."

[nat23]

Here are my 2 cents

The movement in Oct is purely to build inventory so that the cases can pre-adjudicated before the SOFAD season starts (July 2012). The people who will become current in Oct will not get their green cards till July 2012. This is backed by the fact that visa numbers for 2011 are exhausted and for 2012 there is more demand than supply (250/month for I+C)

This move by the USCIS is unlike previous years where in they used to wait till May to move the dates. Having said that, they didnt need to move the dates till May because they had a lot of applications to work on owing to July 07 fiasco. All those applications are close to exhaustion hence the intake has started in Oct so that they have enough time to pre-adjudicate them before the SOFAD season. There will be another couple rounds intake (nobody knows how many CO wants to take in) to build inventory. How much inventory is sufficient for USCIS (20k, 25K, 30K) is anybody's guess.

Cheers
Nat

[TeddyKoochu]

does this mean people who are current based on OCT visa bulletin might not be Greened this year? sorry I am not throughly understanding.

If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones. The movement in Oct VB is to get in new demand primarily.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

As you mentioned in one of your previous post that "movement between Oct - Dec 2007 is a distinct possibility(Means it will happen for sure)" & now you are saying "The zone in which we are now has the heaviest density, so with the same numbers movement will be less." ? These 2 statements are related or not ?

Sorry if I misunderstood your explanation.

Will appreaciate your response.

Regards.

That’s another context all together. That response was with regards the OP making a projection that the dates will move by ~ a year every year. The point is 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 have different densities. So more SOFAD may mean less movement. The range of Oct - Dec 2007 is quite safe this year.

[rakesh76]

Teddy

so people who already file 485 in July 2007 (pre-adjudicated cases) have to wait more months to get actual GC even though they will be current on Oct 1st.?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

so people who already file 485 in July 2007 (pre-adjudicated cases) have to wait more months to get actual GC even though they will be current on Oct 1st.?

That seems to be highly likely as they will not have 6K numbers in Oct to approve all the cases.

[krishmunn]

Analysis by immiInfo for Oct Bulletin.

Sepotember 15, 2011 ImmInfo Newsletter: Speculation about the October Visa Bulletin (http://imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-9-15/speculation-october-vb.html)

"Since there were very few eligible cases that were not filed by that date, the demand for the balance of 2007 is likely to be much lighter than usual. This suggests that we will see more rapid that usual cutoff date movement in the months ahead due to lower demand."

Another quote from that NewsLetter " The other side of that coin is that if the USCIS is unable to process enough cases to completion, they may have to advance cutoff dates even further in order to make more consular processing applicants eligible. "

The selfish me prays USCIS fails to process enough cases to completion :)

[vinodindia]

Another quote from that NewsLetter " The other side of that coin is that if the USCIS is unable to process enough cases to completion, they may have to advance cutoff dates even further in order to make more consular processing applicants eligible. "

The selfish me prays USCIS fails to process enough cases to completion :)

Correct. I wish the same too :)...I was reading the same thought by an expert in another forum as well. If too many experts are thinking let us hope it is bound to happen...

[justice4all]

Correct. I wish the same too :)...I was reading the same thought by an expert in another forum as well. If too many experts are thinking let us hope it is bound to happen...


What happens if the consular processing numbers get wasted.. Do they give the numbers to EB3I who are waiting since 2002? Any thoughts.

[rodnyb]

Teddy,

As my last post quoted, my Chinese friends told me that FB has been using about 27% each quarter while EB using much less (with majority in last Q for SO). So they contacted DOS and made aware of that, so they can use some SO (20% of 140K - used EB1/EB2ROW/EB3) for EB2I/C. This could be about 30k/7=7K each Q. Since only about 6K left before 07/2007, DOS moved it to late July/2007.

Yes, building pipeline is 100% true to give CIS time to process... but as you know, PWMB is not that huge before 07/2007 and moving to 07/15/2007 won't help much in building buffer.. they need 30K

As for lottery, pre-adjudicated cases prob have already got some labels... how they do it FIFO (based on PD or RD) or just random.. is everyone's guess

That seems to be highly likely as they will not have 6K numbers in Oct to approve all the cases.

[vinodindia]

What happens if the consular processing numbers get wasted.. Do they give the numbers to EB3I who are waiting since 2002? Any thoughts.

As far as I know, there is no separate count for Consular processing. They all are considered into one bucket that goes into Fall up/Fall down approach.

[velagale]

I have a question regarding the 140k employment based visas.

Now, there is a 7% or so per country limit. I am wondering if EB2 Rest of the World quota doesn't get used, will the remaining visas be redistributed among other countries, like China, India etc where demand is always more than supply ? ie just as Family based Visas spill over to EB1-> EB2 -> Eb3 ?

Basically, will all the 140k EB visas be used in one form or the other ?

[gcandgc]

I have a question regarding the 140k employment based visas.

Now, there is a 7% or so per country limit. I am wondering if EB2 Rest of the World quota doesn't get used, will the remaining visas be redistributed among other countries, like China, India etc where demand is always more than supply ? ie just as Family based Visas spill over to EB1-> EB2 -> Eb3 ?

Basically, will all the 140k EB visas be used in one form or the other ?

Hi Velagale
If you have time, please go through this thread from the beginning and you will get answer to this question as well as you will get wealth of information.
Very briefly, for example this year entire visa was used and nothing available for rest of this year (i.e till end of this month when "Visa" year ends)
GCANDGC

[chikna]

All left over EB2 visa numbers (including left over EB4, EB5 and EB1 visa numbers) spill over to EB3.

Spill over to EB3? When will this happen? Filthy immigration system.

[gc_check]

All left over EB2 visa numbers (including left over EB4, EB5 and EB1 visa numbers) spill over to EB3.

Spill over to EB3? When will this happen? Filthy immigration system.

Spill over to EB3 is only in theory for now. Unless EB2 is current for all (This is not going to happen any time soon), EB2 will absorb all spill over from categories and will not leave any for EB3. Any new member joining the in E2 or higher queue will also need to be current before any visa spill over to E3. EB3 relief if any can happen only with a congressional solution. I wish congress had laws for spillover visa to go to oldest PD regardless of category - but it is not the case.

[pappu]

All left over EB2 visa numbers (including left over EB4, EB5 and EB1 visa numbers) spill over to EB3.

Spill over to EB3? When will this happen? Filthy immigration system.

Are you 'serious' and 'sincere' about fixing the problem for yourself and many like yourself?

If yes, then what are you willing to commit to fix it?

If you have a sincere commitment , can sacrifice a lot for it and willing to do it regularly for a long period of time until the problem is solved (and not just your own greencard), then you can definitely fix the problem.

If the answers to all the above is yes, then contact IV and you will be welcomed to join us in our advocacy efforts.

If you are only thinking about your Priority date and EB3 and just want to get your own green card, then it is a failure in fixing this problem. The reason why problems in immigration system are 'filthy' (the word you used in your post) is because people are not committed to fixing it and they only think narrowly about their own green card. So the problem is people and not the system. System was created by people and can be changed by people. If only people that benefit from the system are willing to fix it.

[painful_GC]

I am current in Oct bulletin (PD June 2007) and i want to apply I485 for my wife on oct 3 or 4 2011...Can they still accept the 485 Applications ? I am confused with the term for EB Visas exhausted ..Please advice.

Thanks

[mk26]

I am current in Oct bulletin (PD June 2007) and i want to apply I485 for my wife on oct 3 or 4 2011...Can they still accept the 485 Applications ? I am confused with the term for EB Visas exhausted ..Please advice.

Thanks
You are good to file you AOS and they will accept as long as your date is current.

[GCHope2011]

I am current in Oct bulletin (PD June 2007) and i want to apply I485 for my wife on oct 3 or 4 2011...Can they still accept the 485 Applications ? I am confused with the term for EB Visas exhausted ..Please advice.

Thanks
In fact it is important that you file it in October itself and not wait - just in case if the dates move back in the next month.

[TeddyKoochu]

EB3 Movement Tracking - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/EB3_Movement_Tracking)

@arnet EB3-I will move by a week in every VB as now we have entered a very dense zone. By Q1 2012 i.e. Dec VB we will hit Aug 2002, also it depends whether you are at the beginning of the month or the end that may take additional time.

[TeddyKoochu]

I am current in Oct bulletin (PD June 2007) and i want to apply I485 for my wife on oct 3 or 4 2011...Can they still accept the 485 Applications ? I am confused with the term for EB Visas exhausted ..Please advice.

Thanks

The exhaustion refers to the 2011 Cap numbers that means no more cases will see approval in Sep 2011, however it still does not prevent anyone from filing, your date is current in Oct 2012 so your wife has the full month of October to file.

[painful_GC]

Many thanks for all your prompt responses..I did attend some of the IV events @bayarea and will keep supporting whenever possible

My PD is June 2007 ..and when can i expect tentatively the Physical card..before the summer next year@ 2012 ? or am i being optimistic :) .. I am fed up with all these Visa and ..other renewals ..travel bla bla..

Anyways i would like to file the I-485 for my wife,so now i can confirm that i am fine as long as i apply in early october and expect a EAD and AP for my wife ..correct me if i am wrong

[srinibg]

my pd is mar 07. current since 2 months almost but got stuck in rfe processing for ac21.
visa exhaustion means that i might not get GC this year and will have to depend on spillover next summer?

since starting from october, there will be 280 visas per month for eb2i.
and who knows ho many more ppl like me are there

[kaluvalakp]

Hi,
I am new to this forum, My priority date in Nov/2008(EB2), is there any chance of this date getting current in future( as of now only I-140 got approved) if not , according to your expert calculations when can this happen. Thanks

Prashanth K

[CaliHoneB]

Teddy,
How are you calculating porting numbers for Eb3-Eb2. yes, numbers are dense for Eb3 from now on wards but porting numbers have been high in last threee months to everybody's surprise ( 700/month). Any ideas on how to calculate these numbers realistically going forward?
Assuming at the current rate of 700 /month Eb3 would reach 2003 some where at the end of 2012 Q1 or sometime in 2012 Q2 but it really depends on porting. I am guessing this porting will be higher as the PD goes farther away from 2002 july..I say that because people with farther away PD are more likely to port than people who are close to 2002 july...

Cheers

@arnet EB3-I will move by a week in every VB as now we have entered a very dense zone. By Q1 2012 i.e. Dec VB we will hit Aug 2002, also it depends whether you are at the beginning of the month or the end that may take additional time.

[snathan]

.

[snathan]

.

[Madhuri]

Teddy,
How are you calculating porting numbers for Eb3-Eb2. yes, numbers are dense for Eb3 from now on wards but porting numbers have been high in last threee months to everybody's surprise ( 700/month). Any ideas on how to calculate these numbers realistically going forward?
Assuming at the current rate of 700 /month Eb3 would reach 2003 some where at the end of 2012 Q1 or sometime in 2012 Q2 but it really depends on porting. I am guessing this porting will be higher as the PD goes farther away from 2002 july..I say that because people with farther away PD are more likely to port than people who are close to 2002 july...

Cheers

Are there 700/month porting cases? Where do you get that data? Also does this number include the dependents as well?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
How are you calculating porting numbers for Eb3-Eb2. yes, numbers are dense for Eb3 from now on wards but porting numbers have been high in last threee months to everybody's surprise ( 700/month). Any ideas on how to calculate these numbers realistically going forward?
Assuming at the current rate of 700 /month Eb3 would reach 2003 some where at the end of 2012 Q1 or sometime in 2012 Q2 but it really depends on porting. I am guessing this porting will be higher as the PD goes farther away from 2002 july..I say that because people with farther away PD are more likely to port than people who are close to 2002 july...

Cheers

The movement in the last few months for EB3 has been good. We can attribute the following reasons a) The kept a large segment of the numbers for the last few months b) When the dates finally became current for the individuals they got their GC by other means like 1) Porting 2) Through Spouse application 3) Primary being citizen etc. Porting is not really that high in fact the maximum it could have been is 6k, porting is more prevalent for cases 2003 onwards, most 2002 folks are staying put. EB3-I will make it to Nov 2002 by Sep 2012 it can be better if again the inventory is not accurate and there are more dropouts.

[CaliHoneB]

it is actually less less than 700 ..but still significant.
Change in demand data from september to october for apps before 2003= (5675+15)-(4925+25) = 740
porting = 740-233 = 507 (EB3I regular quota per month is 233)

I think these numbers reflect total i,e including dependents.
you can calculate for previous months using data here

EB3 Movement Tracking - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/EB3_Movement_Tracking)

Are there 700/month porting cases? Where do you get that data? Also does this number include the dependents as well?

[CaliHoneB]

The movement in the last few months for EB3 has been good. We can attribute the following reasons a) The kept a large segment of the numbers for the last few months b) When the dates finally became current for the individuals they got their GC by other means like 1) Porting 2) Through Spouse application 3) Primary being citizen etc). Porting is not really that high in fact the maximum it could have been is 6k, porting is more prevalent for cases 2003 onwards, most 2002 folks are staying put. EB3-I will make it to Nov 2002 by Sep 2012 it can be better if again the inventory is not accurate and there are more dropouts.

a) seems to be more accurate..they waited until the end and it makes me furious that after wasting so many visa numbers they are still waiting till the end

here is the reduction in demand for apps with Pd prior to 2003.. latest month first

sept-oct = 740
aug-sept = 730
june-july-aug = 505 ( IV site has no data for july)
may-june = 175
apr-may = 400
march-apr = 350
feb-march=250
jan-feb= 250
dec-jan = 50
nov-dec =50
oct-nov=200

Total = 3600 ( there is small descrepancy here about 100 which I cannot account for.. when I directly compate oct demand data of 2010 and 2011 it comes out to be 3700)

so over all reduction for the year via porting with PD 2003 or earlier is 3700 - 12x233 = 904

[arnet]

thanks TeddyKoochu and CoopHeal.

@arnet EB3-I will move by a week in every VB as now we have entered a very dense zone. By Q1 2012 i.e. Dec VB we will hit Aug 2002, also it depends whether you are at the beginning of the month or the end that may take additional time.

[mbahunting]

I searched other forums but with no luck so asking this question here - if the questions are already answered please point me to the forum. Thanks in advance for help

1. Has anyone gotten a work location RFE on I-140? This is due to mismatch in quoting company headquarters vs. the work location office in the city where I am working. Any experience in responding and help will be appreciated

2. If I-140 has been approved and 485 is not filed despite dates being current for a few months, does USCIS considers the 140 abandoned or cancels it after a time period? Any ideas how long can one wait safely before filing 485 when dates are current. I know this is kinda stupid but there are compelling reasons not to file right now.

Thanks all for your help.

[akshaya10001]

This is previous post by XXXXX:
Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.

FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is good point to see where we land next year. Year to year profile changes( % of India, china % of EB2 e.t.c) will not make big difference. these changes will offset 1-2 months.

Certified PERMS for India & China, Ex: year 2007 ( Oct'2006 to Sept'2007)
Year 2007 2008 2009
India 26,614 18,838 13,532
China7393 3,787 2,516

Many people says the highest density of PERMs are mid 2007 to mid 2008 but by looking at above data this assumption may be wrong.
Approval from Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 was highest. most likely these cases might have filed before August'2007 ( assuming 3-4 weeks processing time) we are close to this point.

Consider cases prior to Sept'2007 as Backlog we might have close to 12k. 8k as per demand data. 4K for Aug 17th to Sept 30th & People missed filing.

From Oct'2007 we have PERM Data
for 2008 & 2009 we have ~39K PERMS for India & China.
I don't expect more than 39K EB2 485 applications, Past data is no.of EB2 485's for India is close to number PERM's approved in that year or we can break analysis basis of % EB2 & EB3, % approvals, % drop out, % duplicates(employer change & EB3 to EB2 porting),
So In Total before Sept'2009 we may have close to 39+12 = 51K applications.

If we get 25K SOFAD/ year next 2 years then hopefully all before sep'2009 may get green card in next 2 years, which gives hope to get atleast EAD by next December'2012.

485 processing takes 6-9 months, so atleast 6-9 months before they should accept applications
so in next 12-15 months there is high probability that PD temporarily moves up to Sept'2009.

another factor to be considered is many people filed in late 2007 may have approved I-140, these are people changed jobs and rushed to start their green card processing with new employer again. EB2 back log started from 2005 with uscis starting implementing country quota.In 2007 Market was good so many people instead of waiting for Green card took new opportunities, once the EB2 was current these guys rushed to start their green card again.

[vinodindia]

This is previous post by XXXXX:
Certified PERMS for India & China, Ex: year 2007 ( Oct'2006 to Sept'2007)
Year 2007 2008 2009
India 26,614 18,838 13,532
China7393 3,787 2,516

so in next 12-15 months there is high probability that PD temporarily moves up to Sept'2009.

another factor to be considered is many people filed in late 2007 may have approved I-140, these are people changed jobs and rushed to start their green card processing with new employer again. EB2 back log started from 2005 with uscis starting implementing country quota.In 2007 Market was good so many people instead of waiting for Green card took new opportunities, once the EB2 was current these guys rushed to start their green card again.
That is a detailed analysis and that does sound positive. :)

[Sunx_2004]

Does any one know for sure when was per country quota implemented

This is previous post by XXXXX:
Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.

FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is good point to see where we land next year. Year to year profile changes( % of India, china % of EB2 e.t.c) will not make big difference. these changes will offset 1-2 months.

Certified PERMS for India & China, Ex: year 2007 ( Oct'2006 to Sept'2007)
Year 2007 2008 2009
India 26,614 18,838 13,532
China7393 3,787 2,516

Many people says the highest density of PERMs are mid 2007 to mid 2008 but by looking at above data this assumption may be wrong.
Approval from Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 was highest. most likely these cases might have filed before August'2007 ( assuming 3-4 weeks processing time) we are close to this point.

Consider cases prior to Sept'2007 as Backlog we might have close to 12k. 8k as per demand data. 4K for Aug 17th to Sept 30th & People missed filing.

From Oct'2007 we have PERM Data
for 2008 & 2009 we have ~39K PERMS for India & China.
I don't expect more than 39K EB2 485 applications, Past data is no.of EB2 485's for India is close to number PERM's approved in that year or we can break analysis basis of % EB2 & EB3, % approvals, % drop out, % duplicates(employer change & EB3 to EB2 porting),
So In Total before Sept'2009 we may have close to 39+12 = 51K applications.

If we get 25K SOFAD/ year next 2 years then hopefully all before sep'2009 may get green card in next 2 years, which gives hope to get atleast EAD by next December'2012.

485 processing takes 6-9 months, so atleast 6-9 months before they should accept applications
so in next 12-15 months there is high probability that PD temporarily moves up to Sept'2009.

another factor to be considered is many people filed in late 2007 may have approved I-140, these are people changed jobs and rushed to start their green card processing with new employer again. EB2 back log started from 2005 with uscis starting implementing country quota.In 2007 Market was good so many people instead of waiting for Green card took new opportunities, once the EB2 was current these guys rushed to start their green card again.

[dinearok]

This is previous post by XXXXX:
Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.

FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is good point to see where we land next year. Year to year profile changes( % of India, china % of EB2 e.t.c) will not make big difference. these changes will offset 1-2 months.

Certified PERMS for India & China, Ex: year 2007 ( Oct'2006 to Sept'2007)
Year 2007 2008 2009
India 26,614 18,838 13,532
China7393 3,787 2,516

Many people says the highest density of PERMs are mid 2007 to mid 2008 but by looking at above data this assumption may be wrong.
Approval from Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 was highest. most likely these cases might have filed before August'2007 ( assuming 3-4 weeks processing time) we are close to this point.

Consider cases prior to Sept'2007 as Backlog we might have close to 12k. 8k as per demand data. 4K for Aug 17th to Sept 30th & People missed filing.

From Oct'2007 we have PERM Data
for 2008 & 2009 we have ~39K PERMS for India & China.
I don't expect more than 39K EB2 485 applications, Past data is no.of EB2 485's for India is close to number PERM's approved in that year or we can break analysis basis of % EB2 & EB3, % approvals, % drop out, % duplicates(employer change & EB3 to EB2 porting),
So In Total before Sept'2009 we may have close to 39+12 = 51K applications.

If we get 25K SOFAD/ year next 2 years then hopefully all before sep'2009 may get green card in next 2 years, which gives hope to get atleast EAD by next December'2012.

485 processing takes 6-9 months, so atleast 6-9 months before they should accept applications
so in next 12-15 months there is high probability that PD temporarily moves up to Sept'2009.

another factor to be considered is many people filed in late 2007 may have approved I-140, these are people changed jobs and rushed to start their green card processing with new employer again. EB2 back log started from 2005 with uscis starting implementing country quota.In 2007 Market was good so many people instead of waiting for Green card took new opportunities, once the EB2 was current these guys rushed to start their green card again.


Good Calculation....But what about the porting that is going on..?

[krishmunn]

Good calculation. Does anyone have India + China PERM data for 2007 . This calculation gives me hope that I might be able to file 485 by July/Aug 2012

[TeddyKoochu]

This is previous post by XXXXX:
Here is a prediction solely based on PERM data obtained from FLC. It includes Certified and Certified-Expired applications for all countries.

FY Start End PERM Data
2010 5/22/2005 5/8/2006 70,418
2011 5/8/2006 4/15/2007 80,556
2012 4/15/2007 5/1/2008 75,487

In FY'10 the priority date moved from 22-May-05 to 08-May-06. According to the PERM data there were a total of 70,418 applications between those two dates.Similarly in FY'11 the priority date moved from 08-May-06 to 15-Apr-07. According to the PERM data there were a total of 80,556 applications between those two dates.Now FY'12 started with the date 15-Apr-07. If we take an average of the PERM applications seen in FY'10 and FY'11, it comes out to 75,847. So if 75,487 applications go through the system in FY'12, it will move the priority date to 01-May-2008.

I might be oversimplifying this, but I would greatly appreciate it if the experts would take a look at this and comment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is good point to see where we land next year. Year to year profile changes( % of India, china % of EB2 e.t.c) will not make big difference. these changes will offset 1-2 months.

Certified PERMS for India & China, Ex: year 2007 ( Oct'2006 to Sept'2007)
Year 2007 2008 2009
India 26,614 18,838 13,532
China7393 3,787 2,516

Many people says the highest density of PERMs are mid 2007 to mid 2008 but by looking at above data this assumption may be wrong.
Approval from Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 was highest. most likely these cases might have filed before August'2007 ( assuming 3-4 weeks processing time) we are close to this point.

Consider cases prior to Sept'2007 as Backlog we might have close to 12k. 8k as per demand data. 4K for Aug 17th to Sept 30th & People missed filing.

From Oct'2007 we have PERM Data
for 2008 & 2009 we have ~39K PERMS for India & China.
I don't expect more than 39K EB2 485 applications, Past data is no.of EB2 485's for India is close to number PERM's approved in that year or we can break analysis basis of % EB2 & EB3, % approvals, % drop out, % duplicates(employer change & EB3 to EB2 porting),
So In Total before Sept'2009 we may have close to 39+12 = 51K applications.

If we get 25K SOFAD/ year next 2 years then hopefully all before sep'2009 may get green card in next 2 years, which gives hope to get atleast EAD by next December'2012.

485 processing takes 6-9 months, so atleast 6-9 months before they should accept applications
so in next 12-15 months there is high probability that PD temporarily moves up to Sept'2009.

another factor to be considered is many people filed in late 2007 may have approved I-140, these are people changed jobs and rushed to start their green card processing with new employer again. EB2 back log started from 2005 with uscis starting implementing country quota.In 2007 Market was good so many people instead of waiting for Green card took new opportunities, once the EB2 was current these guys rushed to start their green card again.

Akshaya firstly a very good post. Thanks for your efforts.
One quick point are you looking at the Perm case number and then deducing the date, because perm approvals for a year could be spread over different files. There were several 2008 perms approved as late as 2010. That’s why this zone from late 2007 to about Sep 2008 will be really heavy. It may however be comparable to late 2006 and early 2007, 2005 was a very light year.
On another note looks like USCIS and DOS want to test the actual demand by inviting 485 filings in a controlled way. The dates in the next 2 bulletins hopefully will be progressed to take in the fresh intake. Iam hopeful that everybody with a EB2 2007 PD will get a chance to file for 485.

[TeddyKoochu]

EB2 back log started from 2005 with uscis starting implementing country quota

Why did they implement country quota? Who did this? This is so wrong. I don't think Congress changed it.

AFAIK all dates used to be current around that time, it was labor that was backlogged so country limits did not really matter that time as long as labor was approved it was smooth sailing. Maybe some of the older folks can give the right perspective.

[gc_on_demand]

AFAIK all dates used to be current around that time, it was labor that was backlogged so country limits did not really matter that time as long as labor was approved it was smooth sailing. Maybe some of the older folks can give the right perspective.

Teddy,

my Pd is Jan 2008 but close relative of mine has PD of Feb 2008, There are 25k people till me so far and I may be able to make it hardly. what do you think chances for person with feb 2008 being able to file for 485 ?

[krishmunn]

Teddy,

my Pd is Jan 2008 but close relative of mine has PD of Feb 2008, There are 25k people till me so far and I may be able to make it hardly. what do you think chances for person with feb 2008 being able to file for 485 ?

My PD is March 2008 and I believe in worst case, we will have the opportunity to file 485 by October 2012 when they open the intake valve again. They will pretty much clear up all 2007 cases this fiscal year

[TeddyKoochu]

My PD is March 2008 and I believe in worst case, we will have the opportunity to file 485 by October 2012 when they open the intake valve again. They will pretty much clear up all 2007 cases this fiscal year

Teddy,

my Pd is Jan 2008 but close relative of mine has PD of Feb 2008, There are 25k people till me so far and I may be able to make it hardly. what do you think chances for person with feb 2008 being able to file for 485 ?


Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=1&charttype=1)) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.
- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.

[manchala]

My pd is 2008 september would I be able to apply 485 this year??

[vbkris77]

My pd is 2008 september would I be able to apply 485 this year??

I wouldn't count on GC this year. You may be able to file 485 some time late this year or early next year.

[TeddyKoochu]

My pd is 2008 september would I be able to apply 485 this year??

This year is very difficult, next year for sure.

[gc_on_demand]

I wouldn't count on GC this year. You may be able to file 485 some time late this year or early next year.

Do you see any light soon in upcoming two bulletin for us to file I 485 ?

[manchala]

This year is very difficult, next year for sure.

If it is next year, any idea of which month?? I have H1B till 2013 June just to see If I need to go through another extension or not. That would be my fifth extension as my last two extensions are for 1 year and 1.5 year even after i-140 approval.

[TeddyKoochu]

Do you see any light soon in upcoming two bulletin for us to file I 485 ?

I believe that if they follow the FB model (Move in Q1 and Retro in Q2) all the movement must happen in the next 2 bulletins itself, especially the Nov bulletin, because the dates cannot be kept at this level for long. So another 3 months in Nov bulletin is likely lets hope for the best.

[vbkris77]

Do you see any light soon in upcoming two bulletin for us to file I 485 ?

I think it will be darn close race though but I hope so we do file 485 atleast .

My view is they atleast need to move till 1Q 2008 to generate enough demand just in case.

[TeddyKoochu]

If it is next year, any idea of which month?? I have H1B till 2013 June just to see If I need to go through another extension or not. That would be my fifth extension as my last two extensions are for 1 year and 1.5 year even after i-140 approval.

If the same exact pattern is followed then it will be Oct - Dec 2012, you are sure shot for the next bus. I can understand the worries of all EVC folks, hang in there.

I think it will be darn close race though but I hope so we do file 485 atleast .

You put it very nicely, even individual dates might matter, and it may be a photo finish. We will know in the next 2 VB's itself. All the best.

[manchala]

If the same exact pattern is followed then it will be Oct - Dec 2012, you are sure shot for the next bus. I can understand the worries of all EVC folks, hang in there.



You put it very nicely, even individual dates might matter, and it may be a photo finish. We will know in the next 2 VB's itself. All the best.

That would be a great news. If i can apply next year atleast before 2013 June.

[prem_goel]

I think DoS will move visa bulletin rapidly in the next 3-4 months, until Jan 2012. Then they'll retrogress. This is the best move for them, as anyone who files 485 during these 3-4 months will not be able to call USCIS as minimum processing time for 485 is usually 4 months.

In Jan 2012, DoS will retrogress back to July 07, so at that time also one cannot call USCIS as dates have been taken back and one is not current anymore.

This'll allow DoS to build sufficient pipeline/inventory without receiving too many phone calls/congressional inquiries.

[mk26]

Teddy.. I will be filing my I485 in oct, based on the calculations do you think I should get the approval of I485 within 6 months or worst case in 2012 atleast? apprecate your time.

[mangatha2011]

Teddy,

Thanks for your analyzed report.

My PD is 05-Nov-2007, Is any there chance get into next month bulletin.:rolleyes:

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy.. I will be filing my I485 in oct, based on the calculations do you think I should get the approval of I485 within 6 months or worst case in 2012 atleast? apprecate your time.

I believe you should see green sometime around May - Sep 2012 depending on when they start the approval lap.

Teddy,

Thanks for your analyzed report.

My PD is 05-Nov-2007, Is any there chance get into next month bulletin.:rolleyes:

Likely in the next 2, next maybe difficuly, all depends on how they want to pace things. But you should get the chance this yearin anycase.

[jindhal]

xxx