EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[nat23]

"So in the next VB we might see a very small forward movement (Max 2 months) or retrogression so that the approval cycle can start as the cases filed in October maybe ripe soon."

@Thomachan, I intended to say retrogression is possible in the next VB itself.
The possibility for the next VB is
Best Case - 2 months of forward movement. This possible if the aim is 30K with buffer.
Worst Case - Retrogression, there have been 20K additional I40 approvals in the last 4 months so this backlog is back to normal levels so the SOFAD required this year may be closer to 25K instead of 30K and we have already exceeded this line.
At the moment both outcomes are 50-50 likely. At the end of the month I will check out how the approvals are coming by for Eb2 ROW and Eb1 to tilt either way.

Teddy

You have stated the extremes as the possible scenarios. Do you think that the CO might move it by a month which would buy him time to monitor the filings also get in the additional buffer given the fact that demand destruction is real.

Cheers
Nat

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

You have stated the extremes as the possible scenarios. Do you think that the CO might move it by a month which would buy him time to monitor the filings also get in the additional buffer given the fact that demand destruction is real.

Cheers
Nat

Yes that is also a possibility he could make a smaller movement this way he has chance to monitor the demand and give anyone who is unable to file one more grace month. I believe the large intakes are definitely done for the year.

[gc_on_demand]

Hi Teddy,

Just to let you know that just received fingerprint notices for me & my spouse in today's mail.

RD : 11/04/2011
ND : 11/08/2011
Fingerprint notice received : 11/21/2011

Regards.

When is ur fp date ?

[arun_ramani]

I am not sure when CO is not sure about moving dates, how come everyone is predicting 1-2 months movement and then retrogression. More of inaccurate prediction with in sufficient data is going to do more harm and confuse everyone rather than provide any help.

Here is summary provided by one lawfirm:
"EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.
"
Yes that is also a possibility he could make a smaller movement this way he has chance to monitor the demand and give anyone who is unable to file one more grace month. I believe the large intakes are definitely done for the year.

[vick]

[QUOTE=TeddyKoochu;2999107]@vick wrt to your question, yes the possibility of forward movement in the next VB is now drastically reduced. In all probability with the existing numbers there is a small buffer as well. So in the next VB we might see a very small forward movement (Max 2 months) or retrogression so that the approval cycle can start as the cases filed in October maybe ripe soon.

Teddy,

Thanks a lot again as it is very helpful in planning for next steps. I remember Pappu showing some concenrs about the data movement too (I think, he talked to a senior officer responsible for dates movement). and he said he will send you a private message. Did you talk to him? If yes, Is there anything you would like to share from your conversation with him.

Thanks
Vick

[hbk]

When is ur fp date ?

FP date is 12/01/2011.

Regards.

[mzc123]

Hbk, what service center did you send your AOS? Did you receive the FP notice from same center?

[sanchit_raizada]

i am a novice - just wanted to take inputs on when can i expect my priority date of April, 2011 (EB2- india) to become current. I am in 6th yr of H1B - pardon me for me ignorance.

[Mr. Brown]

i am a novice - just wanted to take inputs on when can i expect my priority date of April, 2011 (EB2- india) to become current. I am in 6th yr of H1B - pardon me for me ignorance.

It's so far out that it would only be a guess if someone told you how long it would take to get your green card. But the general rule of thumb is 4 years to get an EAD and another year (total 5) to get the green card. This is for EB2-I.

[TeddyKoochu]

In the last 4 months USCIS has approved 20K extra I40's more than their regular rate. This would for sure infuse more Eb2 ROW and EB1 numbers. Last year we saw probably the highest ever SOFAD estimated at 30K, this was largely due to I140 slowdown due to the Kazarian memo for EB1 A & B and I140 slowdown or extra scrutiny in general. The number of receipts in 2011 for I140 was actually more than 2010, so if all these cases are now cleared out and assuming 50% of this was absorbed in 2011 then this will impact SOFAD by a minimum of 5K. As per our calculations the intake is 20K and usage is 8.5K so we have probably exceeded the 25K figure. Therefore I feel that the maximum forward movement possible is 2 months now and it should likely happen in the next VB. If CO feels that there are sufficient numbers in the system by counting the Nov filings and proportioning the Dec filings then it may be time for dates to retrogress. We should be grateful to all the law firms and AILA for the Mar projection that turned out to be accurate but in line with the current situation drastic forward movement cannot be justified, however if CO intends to have a very large buffer anyways then it’s possible. So if anybody hears any news please post without any hesitation for everyone's benefit.
@Vick I have not heard anything back on that subject.
@gc_on_demand – It’s only TSC folks getting FP notices, I got mine on 19th and FP date is 25th. Folks from NSC are mostly waiting in this regard.

[hbk]

Hbk, what service center did you send your AOS? Did you receive the FP notice from same center?

Service center is Texas & got FP notice from TSC only.

[nat23]

Teddy

if I'm not wrong you and pappu had a side bar last week on the number of applications received by USCIS.

Anything to add from that conversation.

Cheers
Nat

[lovenil]

teddy,

can you put on front page , your prediction of receiving (or getting I-485 approval) green cards who applied 485 in oct -nov and would be applying in dec.

I remember you saying that folks till Nov 07 dates for EB2- India should get green card by 2012 Fiscal year end for sure and Dec 07 people have 50% chance of getting greened this fiscal year.

Is this prediction still valid?

[akshaya10001]

At the begin of year pending cases which are pre-adjudicated are 14K, the people who are pessimistic why can't they expect same at begin of next year at-least lower levels at $8K , then they need to move 4 more months than need to cover this year spill over.

even after CO said he will probably move to march'2008, last month couple of senior members repeatedly posted their prediction movement will be 1-2 months only for Dec'2010 visa bulletin, if any one see these guys messages last year always they are more hopeful than CO predictions in the visa bulletin but now they feel pessimistic as they become current in last 1-2 months. if you waited 4 years doesn't need others need to wait 4 years, things are more positive now compare to when you filed.

[winsomelad]

Quote:
Originally Posted by sanchit_raizada
i am a novice - just wanted to take inputs on when can i expect my priority date of April, 2011 (EB2- india) to become current. I am in 6th yr of H1B - pardon me for me ignorance.
It's so far out that it would only be a guess if someone told you how long it would take to get your green card. But the general rule of thumb is 4 years to get an EAD and another year (total 5) to get the green card. This is for EB2-I.


Hi Guy's,

Please don't predict cloud guesses, we never know what it will be in next couple of year's. If you are accurate about data, pls post with it. Do any one predicted the EB2 forward movement, as it is now. Scenario of VB will be designed with law's, bill's & economy. I am sorry, If my comments are not that mature.

[thomachan72]

Let us hope that the CO does not visit this thread to decide whether to advance PD any further this year :D:D:D:D:o:o:o
If he does not review this thread.....maybe we might be in for a surprise :D:D
Meanwhile let us participate in the current action item by contributing time/money to IVs bills (3012 and 1875):)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

if I'm not wrong you and pappu had a side bar last week on the number of applications received by USCIS.

Anything to add from that conversation.

Cheers
Nat

I have not receipt anything from Pappu.

teddy,

can you put on front page , your prediction of receiving (or getting I-485 approval) green cards who applied 485 in oct -nov and would be applying in dec.

I remember you saying that folks till Nov 07 dates for EB2- India should get green card by 2012 Fiscal year end for sure and Dec 07 people have 50% chance of getting greened this fiscal year.

Is this prediction still valid?

Even Dec folks receiving GC looks quite likely, I will update the thread header once we can monitor EB2 ROW and EB1 more.

[ctm1234]

Teddy ,

I am reading lot of info on this and other forums and I could not predict what will happen to EB-2 April 2009 if HR 3012 passes.

Please ..

[thomachan72]

Teddy ,

I am reading so many info on this and many forum and I could not predict what will happen to EB-2 April 2009 if HR 3012 passes.

Please ..

Best case scenario;
EB2 will become current ;)
EB3 will move to atleast 2005

[tiny]

In the last 4 months USCIS has approved 20K extra I40's more than their regular rate. This would for sure infuse more Eb2 ROW and EB1 numbers. Last year we saw probably the highest ever SOFAD estimated at 30K, this was largely due to I140 slowdown due to the Kazarian memo for EB1 A & B and I140 slowdown or extra scrutiny in general. The number of receipts in 2011 for I140 was actually more than 2010, so if all these cases are now cleared out and assuming 50% of this was absorbed in 2011 then this will impact SOFAD by a minimum of 5K. As per our calculations the intake is 20K and usage is 8.5K so we have probably exceeded the 25K figure. Therefore I feel that the maximum forward movement possible is 2 months now and it should likely happen in the next VB. If CO feels that there are sufficient numbers in the system by counting the Nov filings and proportioning the Dec filings then it may be time for dates to retrogress. We should be grateful to all the law firms and AILA for the Mar projection that turned out to be accurate but in line with the current situation drastic forward movement cannot be justified, however if CO intends to have a very large buffer anyways then it’s possible. So if anybody hears any news please post without any hesitation for everyone's benefit.
@Vick I have not heard anything back on that subject.
@gc_on_demand – It’s only TSC folks getting FP notices, I got mine on 19th and FP date is 25th. Folks from NSC are mostly waiting in this regard.


For FP date even PD might be deciding factor. My PD is in Oct'07 and I 485 went to TSC but I am still waiting for FP.
RD: 11/04/2011
ND: 11/07/2011
FP: waiting

[mzc123]

Service center is Texas & got FP notice from TSC only.

Teddy/hbk/others,

I submitted AOS in Oct (last week of Oct) and have not yet recieved the FP notice. My AOS was sent to TSC and I recieved the notices from TSC.
Anything that you guys can suggest that I need to dig into and see why I have not recieved FP notice yet?

Thanks

[ananyaganguly]

Need expert advice on interfiling.
Hello everyone ,
I know this is not the right forum but need some urgent advice regarding interfiling. I am current on dec 1st and need to file my I485,
I have an approved I 140(EB2) from a previous employer with PD of 28th nov 2007 and I also have an I 140(EB2) approval from my current employer with 2010 PD.
I have all my documents ready and handed over to my employers paralegal along with a copy of my old I 140 to port that date ,now my attorney is saying she will just file I 485 with the old I 140 and it is not required to give the new I140 (the one from my current employer)with the paperwork as uscis might get confused .
I am confused and seeking advise on this forum ,in order to retain the old date and show my current employment isn't it necessary to submit both the I140and requesting uscis to use the old date.
what would be the step by step procedure to interfile ,trying to avoid any complexity and rfe.
Also can this interfile happen before dec 1st or it can only be done on or after dec 1st.

Will appreciate advise from experts .
thanks
ananya

[smuggymba]

Yes Vick I think thats what Teddy implies.However, he does not point out when and how the next phase of PD movments will occur. It is painful to hear that from expert analyzers but we do have hope and that is in supporting the current IV initiatives. Our cry has been taken to ears of lawmakers of this nation by IV and let us do our tiny part in this effort.:):):) Now I am ready for my thumbsdowns (only 3-4 please):):):)

gave u some green to balance out the reds:D

[sj8ua]

Just donated money for HR 3012. Good to see some traction!
Confirmation Id: 69U45328KM182653H.

[TeddyKoochu]

Best case scenario;
EB2 will become current ;)
EB3 will move to atleast 2005

The dates will likely be

EB3-I - 01-JAN-2005
EB2-I - 01-JAN-2010.

Good luck to HR3012, its much needed fairness in the system.

[vdlrao]

The dates will likely be

EB3-I - 01-JAN-2005
EB2-I - 01-JAN-2010.

Good luck to HR3012, its much needed fairness in the system.


Hi Teddy,

If the bill passes, EB2-India(Whole EB-2) would be around 1 year back log.
EB3-India(Whole EB3) would be around 3 to 5 years back log.

So EB2 India(Whole EB2 not just India) in 2012 might be anywhere in 2011.
EB3 India( Whole EB3 not just India) in 2012 might be any where in between 2007 to 2009.


I really happy for IV, especially for people like Pappu and Aman Kapoor, for their priceless contribution towards this fairness(relief) in EB category and make this happen. This helps people of EB category to get out this mess. Really a decade of waiting for GC is full of pain. This bill (H.R.3012) causes a lot of change in the Employment Based immigration with its fairness, in coming days.


.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

If the bill passes, EB2-India(Whole EB-2) would be around 1 year back log.
EB3-India(Whole EB3) would be around 3 to 5 years back log.

So EB2 India(Whole EB2 not just India) in 2012 might be anywhere in 2011.
EB3 India( Whole EB3 not just India) in 2012 might be any where in between 2007 to 2009.


I really happy for IV, especially for people like Pappu and Aman Kapoor, for their contribution towards this fairness in EB category and make this happen. This helps people of EB category to get out this mess. Really a decade waiting for GC is full of pain. This bill (H.R.3012) causes a lot of change in the Employment Based immigration with its fairness, in coming days.


.
VDL, by the time HR3012 is enacted 4 VB's for the year will already be enacted. So potentially ROW may have used more that 15% of their guaranteed numbers. This way EB3-I will get 30K this point comes exactly at 01-JAN-2005. EB2-I might get 40-45K this point will come somewhere close to 01-JAN-2010. All in all HR 3012 becoming the law will bring in much needed fairness for the retrogressed countries.

[richguy]

Hi Teddy,

If the bill passes, EB2-India(Whole EB-2) would be around 1 year back log.
EB3-India(Whole EB3) would be around 3 to 5 years back log.

So EB2 India(Whole EB2 not just India) in 2012 might be anywhere in 2011.
EB3 India( Whole EB3 not just India) in 2012 might be any where in between 2007 to 2009.



.

Thanks for the insights
If HR 3012 becomes law, Are you saying EB3 India will move to 2007-2009 starting from Oct 2012?

[vdlrao]

Thanks for the insights
If HR 3012 becomes law, Are you saying EB3 India will move to 2007-2009 starting from Oct 2012?

Yes thats true. There would be nothing much to be worried about the back logs for any country.

There would be no EB2-India or EB3-India in Visa Bulletin Employment Based column category, if H.R.3012 passes. It would be just EB1 or EB2 or EB3......


.

[thomachan72]

VDL, by the time HR3012 is enacted 4 VB's for the year will already be enacted. So potentially ROW may have used more that 15% of their guaranteed numbers. This way EB3-I will get 30K this point comes exactly at 01-JAN-2005. EB2-I might get 40-45K this point will come somewhere close to 01-JAN-2010. All in all HR 3012 becoming the law will bring in much needed fairness for the retrogressed countries.
This prediction itself should stimulate those who are still hesitating to jump in and contribute :D Lot of people still think that 3012 is only for EB3 since EB2 is already benefiting from spillovers :o:o

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I have updated the header of the thread with my current thoughts. Please refer to http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2345694-post1.html. Your comments, critique and suggestions are greatly appreciated.

[smuggymba]

Friends I have updated the header of the thread with my current thoughts. Please refer to http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/2345694-post1.html. Your comments, critique and suggestions are greatly appreciated.

TK - by the "end of FY 2012" you mean Sept, 2012...right?

[TeddyKoochu]

TK - by the "end of FY 2012" you mean Sept, 2012...right?

That's right FY 2012 means the end of Sep 2012.

[koppana123]

Hi Teddy,
My priority date is March 26,2008 ,EB2-I.Can I expect my date to be current in January visa bulletin?

Appreciate your responce.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
My priority date is March 26,2008 ,EB2-I.Can I expect my date to be current in January visa bulletin?

Appreciate your responce.

Chances are 50%.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is some buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor if the bill passes the house and is likely to pass in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

[Mr. Brown]

Those checks were from my company, but the receipt list's due's as 0. That would mean checks were cashed.
here is the sequence of events:
filed on nov 3
received on nov 4
notice date on nov 10
received in snail mail on nov 17.

i am thinking you may be one or two days away from receiving it. hang on there

Got it today. For trackers sake here goes ...

Filed: Nov. 8th
Received: Nov. 9th
Notice Dated: Nov. 22nd (not sure why it took this long)
Received papers: Nov. 28th

Also, I was expecting it to go to Texas S.C. but it went to Nebraska S.C.

[mzc123]

Anyone still waiting for FP appointment for over a month? I'm planning to call USCIS tomorrow as it will be 30th day from RD. Tried calling them last week but was asked to wait for 30days.

[amitsri_74]

The dates will likely be

EB3-I - 01-JAN-2005
EB2-I - 01-JAN-2010.

Good luck to HR3012, its much needed fairness in the system.

Do we know when this will be effective? I am going to start my EB2 processing assuming my EB3 is going to take another 3-4 years (PD Dec 2004). Is it advisable to wait and see how this moves or the whole process is going to take years anyways.

Any information is appreciated.

Thanks
Amit

[TeddyKoochu]

Do we know when this will be effective? I am going to start my EB2 processing assuming my EB3 is going to take another 3-4 years (PD Dec 2004). Is it advisable to wait and see how this moves or the whole process is going to take years anyways.

Any information is appreciated.

Thanks
Amit

The bill is supposed to be effective as of 01-OCT-2011. Your porting will take a year, we will know about the bill for sure by Christmas before congress goes into recess. If the bill passes you will get your GC in 1 - 1.5 Years, right now the momentum and excitement on the bill is very high, let’s all hope for the best may the bill pass and bring in fairness.

[dusnt_mata]

Teddy,

EB3I Dec'04 in 1.5 years, with no country limits ?? Is this based on your calculations?

That will be a awesome news.

In that case, this point should have been campaigned a lot on IV to motivate EB3Is.

Always thought recapture bill has more probability of passing as they were legally allowed numbers and not increasing the quota. But now i see country limits is clearly better bill to push. It's a long term solution to the problem. It makes sense in every way. Have to commend IV team on this. Hope no Dem jacka$$es will try to screw this in senate, showing overall US unemployment #s and other irrelevant reasons.




The bill is supposed to be effective as of 01-OCT-2011. Your porting will take a year, we will know about the bill for sure by Christmas before congress goes into recess. If the bill passes you will get your GC in 1 - 1.5 Years, right now the momentum and excitement on the bill is very high, let’s all hope for the best may the bill pass and bring in fairness.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

EB3I Dec'04 in 1.5 years, with no country limits ?? Is this based on your calculations?

That will be a awesome news.

In that case, this point should have been campaigned a lot on IV to motivate EB3Is.

Always thought recapture bill has more probability of passing as they were legally allowed numbers and not increasing the quota. But now i see country limits is clearly better bill to push. It's a long term solution to the problem. It makes sense in every way. Have to commend IV team on this. Hope no Dem jacka$$es will try to screw this in senate, showing overall US unemployment #s and other irrelevant reasons.

In Year 1, EB3-I can expect 30K and that is exactly the backlog till 01-JAN-2005. It might take an extra quarter at max if they have allocated more number to ROW before passage of the bill.

[iyer]

The full House will open session today at 02:00 p.m. but will not start voting of bills until 06:30 p.m. It is anticipated that this bill may pass the House, but will have to wait and see the results of today's votes. Please stay tuned to this website for the results of voting. Once the House passes the bill, the bill will be presented to the Senate. The Senate will then refer the bill to the Senate Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee where its companion bill sponsored by Sen. Mike Lee of Utah is pending. It will be interesting to watch how quickly this bill will be taken up by Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the Chairman of the Immigration Subcommittee. Considering the ticking clock for the recess of the First Session of 112th Congress in December, people may not be able to see any action for this bill until early next year. Please stay tuned.

[iyer]

389 yes (rep 209 dem 179)
15 no (rep 13 dem 2)
still counting 30

2/3rd affirmative , bill passed without objection.

[dvb123]

1) Are Spill over rules changed ?

eb1->eb2->eb3
or
eb1 row-> eb2 row -> eb3 row
eb1 India -> eb2 India -> eb3 india model


2) How would they calculate the leftover visas in a particular fiscal year? Will they have a monthly calculation?

[TeddyKoochu]

1) Are Spill over rules changed ?

eb1->eb2->eb3
or
eb1 row-> eb2 row -> eb3 row
eb1 India -> eb2 India -> eb3 india model


2) How would they calculate the leftover visas in a particular fiscal year? Will they have a monthly calculation?

Congratulations to everyone on this great step towards fairness. Yes the categories will be flat. DOS has an exact count of how many visas that have been issued already its is not published but they have the exact information, it is published via the DOS annual report at the year end. The rules will change once this becomes the law of the land after passage by the Senate and the President’s signature.

[manchala]

We have great success. Everyone waiting for years, please come forward and participate for the success. We are half way through. Participate by contributing and follow IV directives coming soon.

[krupa]

Thanks for the insights
If HR 3012 becomes law, Are you saying EB3 India will move to 2007-2009 starting from Oct 2012?

India may move upto Dec 2004 by Oct 201 and may move upto July 2007 by July 2012. (With the current 485 pending status)

[krupa]

India EB3 may move upto Dec 2004 by Oct 2011 and may move upto July 2007 by July 2012. (With the current 485 pending status)

[GCHope2011]

Hi All,

I just landed in Brussels on my way for an India trip and specifically logged in to check the status of the bill. Happy to see that it has passed in Congress.

Lets now all come together and do our bit to support it in Senate. Remember that law making is an all or nothing proposition - we need to get 100% marks in this exam or we get 0.

And lets all remember - it is EB on the whole that we are fighting for - not the categories within.

Cheers to the core team and all the supporters!!

[hdvti73]

This is truly great news. Congratulation and many thanks to IV for their efforts....

My Priority Date :October 4, 2010

If this bill passes, when should I be able to file 485?

[kckadiyala]

Go IV...Keep up the good work. Donated $100.

[frustratingGC]

.

[priyasree]

Thanks a lot for maintaining such a good site.
We filed EB3, our date is sept 25 2005, when can we expect our GC?

Regards

[TeddyKoochu]

Here are my thoughts about the next VB. I just updated the header of the thread as well. Previously I had missed the 3.5K PWMB. As many people have pointed out EB1 usage is higher however EB2 ROW is lower, I believe if EB1 gives 10K less EB2 ROW may give 5K more so this makes it 25K. Assuming a 10K loss maybe too drastic for now.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD) If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2010 by the end of FY 2012.

[iyer]

The dates will likely be

EB3-I - 01-JAN-2005
EB2-I - 01-JAN-2010.

Good luck to HR3012, its much needed fairness in the system.

Teddy,

How do you know the dates would likely be 01-JAN-2010 for EB2-I?
Do you know how many EB2 ROW has been allotted during Oct - Dec'11?
Do you know how many eligible EB2-I & EB2-C available till date to file for I-485 including their dependents?
It would be good if you could explain your calculation and assumptions used. I know many in this forum don't like if somebody questions your calculation or assumption, or write anything that is not optimistic. But care less for them for the sake of clarity.

Thanks,

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

How do you know the dates would likely be 01-JAN-2010 for EB2-I?
Do you know how many EB2 ROW has been allotted during Oct - Dec'11?
Do you know how many eligible EB2-I & EB2-C available till date to file for I-485 including their dependents?
It would be good if you could explain your calculation and assumptions used. I know many in this forum don't like if somebody questions your calculation or assumption, or write anything that is not optimistic. But care less for them for the sake of clarity.

Thanks,

Thanks, Iam happy that at least someone is asking this question and challenging assumptions.
- Let us assume for a simplistic picture that this year everyone from 2007 will get approved. I have given details in post # 1. Normally I like to calculate usage of EB2 ROW and EB1 based on approvals count, however significant data is not available now considering only 2 months have passed.
Based on perm data 2008 density will come out to be ~ 2500 per month which come out to be 30K. 2009 density will be lesser because of really bad market if we assume 2K per month it will be 20K. This makes it 45K.
Now the SOFAD this year is expected to be 25K, HR 3012 will add another 20K SOFAD from ROW making it 45K. This will bring things close to 01-JAN-2010 which is the point for 45K SOFAD.
EB3-I will get 30K in the first year and move to 01-JAN-2005 this is the exact intersection point.

[akshaya10001]

Most of Teddy calculations based on summary of estimates done by other people. and good at answering personalized questions.
With H.R 3012 in FY2012 EB2 India & China will get Green card up to July'2008 and EAD/AP till early to Mid 2009.

Eb2 india and china 2012 Quota will be 85% of (40K + 12 K spillover from eb1,4 & 5 ) = 45k
inventroty data as of oct 1 2011 = 13k
rest of 2007 cases 6*2,500 = 15k
till july 2008 cases 7*2,500 = 17.5K

again at the end of the year pending cases with PD before July 2008 will be 6-8K due to EB2 to Eb3 upgrades ~4K / PWMS cases 3K

Last year with 30K movement was 10 months May 2006 to April 2007.Good thing is we will cross peak demand period by end FY2012.

[sagar8880]

If bill is passed, EB3 will moved to which yr? (estimated), mine PD is 2010 July EB3
If it crosses Year 2007 July, after that EB3 applications are few, am I right?
Here is my question will it reach yr 2007? if not which year it will be?

[iyer]

Thanks, Iam happy that at least someone is asking this question and challenging assumptions.
- Let us assume for a simplistic picture that this year everyone from 2007 will get approved. I have given details in post # 1. Normally I like to calculate usage of EB2 ROW and EB1 based on approvals count, however significant data is not available now considering only 2 months have passed.
Based on perm data 2008 density will come out to be ~ 2500 per month which come out to be 30K. 2009 density will be lesser because of really bad market if we assume 2K per month it will be 20K. This makes it 45K.
Now the SOFAD this year is expected to be 25K, HR 3012 will add another 20K SOFAD from ROW making it 45K. This will bring things close to 01-JAN-2010 which is the point for 45K SOFAD.
EB3-I will get 30K in the first year and move to 01-JAN-2005 this is the exact intersection point.

Teddy,

Thanks for your quick response.

As at the end of last FY (October bulletin) the cut-off for EB2 I was July 15, 2007.

In any given year EB2 gets 40,000 in total. 15% of this would be reserved for EB2ROW, and that leaves 34K for EB2 I and EB2 C backlog (if 3012 is passed). However, we do not know how much visa consumed by EB2 ROW already in October, November. Your assumption is that 20k of this 34k would be available for EB2-I.

SOFAD is unutilized EB2 ROW, EB4, EB5 and EB1. Your expectation of this in total is 25k.

In total, you are counting on approx. 45k available visas for EB2-I for the current year.

Questions so far:Have you considered china's share in SOFAD availability and HR 3012 gain?
Is there a double count of unutilized EB2 ROW in SOFAD of 25k and HR 3012 gain of 20K?

Now let us work out the demand data:
July 15 2007 - December 31, 2007 - I don't know how much is this population.
2008 - Your expectation 2500 x 12 = 30k
2009 - Your expectation 2000 x 12 = 24k

In total, X (July 2007 - Dec'07) + 54k (2008 & 2009) leaves us at 54k + X visas to reach Jan 1, 2010 cut-off.

Am I right in summarizing what you posted?

[iyer]

I found this on the visa bulletin.

"Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320."

I know this would mean nothing after HR 3012 is passed. But for now can anyone clarify the following?

1) What do they mean by 'at least 140k'? does it mean it could also be greater than 140k? If yes, under what situation it can exceed?
2) What is that dependent area limit of 2%?

Thanks in advance.

[muni_k]

Hi
I got an opportunity to file for my I 485 last month pd sept 07.I have not visited my home country india in 3 years due to all the h1b visa extension stamping hassles.I have been in this country for almost 10 yrs on h1 . I was planning to visit in January 2012,but unexpectedly for me the visa bulletin advanced.I have been told that even if I get my ap I should not use it as it will invalidate my h1.is there any timeframe when there is a chance I might get my green card?will I probably have to wait till next sept\octtimeframe as there may be no more gc numbers available.any suggestions are appreciated,Although i can put it off for a few more months,i really do want to visit India soon.
Thanks

[richguy]

EB3-I will get 30K in the first year and move to 01-JAN-2005 this is the exact intersection point.

Teddy,

Does this 30K include the cases which were already ported to EB2?
If so, Is there a possibility that it can move beyond 01-JAN-2005 in this fiscal year itself, once HR 3012 becomes law?

[rkg000]

Hi
I got an opportunity to file for my I 485 last month pd sept 07.I have not visited my home country india in 3 years due to all the h1b visa extension stamping hassles.I have been in this country for almost 10 yrs on h1 . I was planning to visit in January 2012,but unexpectedly for me the visa bulletin advanced.I have been told that even if I get my ap I should not use it as it will invalidate my h1.is there any timeframe when there is a chance I might get my green card?will I probably have to wait till next sept\octtimeframe as there may be no more gc numbers available.any suggestions are appreciated,Although i can put it off for a few more months,i really do want to visit India soon.
Thanks

I am not sure when you'd get the actual card, but use of AP does not invalidate your H1.

[SGP]

Hello Gurus:

If HR3012 is passed next day after Jan 2012 VB is declared, then what would be the scenario? Would the Jan 2012 VB get revised?

Thanks.

In IV we trust. Lets all pray & donate as much as we can to make HR3012 go thru the Senate smoothly.

[amsol]

Hi Teddy

Appreciate your great work and time for all of us

My priority date Feb 1st 2008 eb2 , when can i expect my green card will be approved

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Thanks for your quick response.

As at the end of last FY (October bulletin) the cut-off for EB2 I was July 15, 2007.

In any given year EB2 gets 40,000 in total. 15% of this would be reserved for EB2ROW, and that leaves 34K for EB2 I and EB2 C backlog (if 3012 is passed). However, we do not know how much visa consumed by EB2 ROW already in October, November. Your assumption is that 20k of this 34k would be available for EB2-I.

SOFAD is unutilized EB2 ROW, EB4, EB5 and EB1. Your expectation of this in total is 25k.

In total, you are counting on approx. 45k available visas for EB2-I for the current year.

Questions so far:Have you considered china's share in SOFAD availability and HR 3012 gain?
Is there a double count of unutilized EB2 ROW in SOFAD of 25k and HR 3012 gain of 20K?

Now let us work out the demand data:
July 15 2007 - December 31, 2007 - I don't know how much is this population.
2008 - Your expectation 2500 x 12 = 30k
2009 - Your expectation 2000 x 12 = 24k

In total, X (July 2007 - Dec'07) + 54k (2008 & 2009) leaves us at 54k + X visas to reach Jan 1, 2010 cut-off.

Am I right in summarizing what you posted?

You are correct; thanks for pointing out it should be 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 with the additional 20K SOFAD. In my 2500 per month I also include porting.
Refer to my Post # 4323 just before your post.
With the dates currently at Mar 15th we are already at 33K intake out of which lets call 8K as buffer and 25K as SOFAD.
8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months)

So essentially passage of HR 3012 if it gets passed in Dec and assuming ROW does not use more than 6K by then we should get another 20K (8 more months). This @ 2500 per month brings us to 01-JAN-2009 instead of 2010. I was counting both India and China but applied 45K post 15-MAR-2008, we must include the SOFAD used to reach this point as well.

[TeddyKoochu]

Most of Teddy calculations based on summary of estimates done by other people. and good at answering personalized questions.
With H.R 3012 in FY2012 EB2 India & China will get Green card up to July'2008 and EAD/AP till early to Mid 2009.

Eb2 india and china 2012 Quota will be 85% of (40K + 12 K spillover from eb1,4 & 5 ) = 45k
inventroty data as of oct 1 2011 = 13k
rest of 2007 cases 6*2,500 = 15k
till july 2008 cases 7*2,500 = 17.5K

again at the end of the year pending cases with PD before July 2008 will be 6-8K due to EB2 to Eb3 upgrades ~4K / PWMS cases 3K

Last year with 30K movement was 10 months May 2006 to April 2007.Good thing is we will cross peak demand period by end FY2012.

I do not agree with your statement that all my calculations are done based on estimates of others, you can refer to the header of the thread and read everything in black and white. It is only for the perm figures which I have not calculated on my own entirely I have referenced work by others on IV and other sites, there are huge differences in all perm calculations because no one can ever agree on the EB2 - EB3 Split and the ROW I/C Split. However the translation ratios of perm to 485 and arriving at 2500 porting inclusive per month is entirely my own original thought and work. On the contrary I have seen you copy entirely perm figures from another source in its entirety. Thus far I had avoided responding to you, on another note in the entire last year I had never stated that my own date could be current had always maintained that it will be a very long shot and quite truly it was the case.
Please refer to my response to iyer I had a wrong reference point to count; the end result should be 01-JAN-2009. From your post following is very interesting there is a discrepancy of 4.5K between the inventory and the demand data. Demand data said 8.5K while inventory is 13K, this is really very significant and a good find because it is finally the inventory that will matter it implies that there were 4.5K PWMB cases filed in the heavy movements last year or its porting not approved. Porting I assume to be a part of 2500 whereas you are assuming it to be separate as another 6-8K. So your figures are 12K higher which may mean 4-5 months less movement, I guess otherwise we are in sync.

[Mr. Brown]

Most of Teddy calculations based on summary of estimates done by other people. and good at answering personalized questions.


Perhaps you are not happy with his answers but as long as he is good at answering questions that help people I don't see a problem with it. He never bluffs or makes any grand predictions to include his priority date either. He is very genuine.

Heck, he's even agreed that his predictions were not the closest to the recent movement and has given GC_On_Demand credit for the best predictions to date (after the March 2008 movement).

Perhaps there is another reason?

[iyer]

copy/paste from Bloomberg:

Republican presidential candidates are busy competing to make the most nativist appeals for votes. After the House passed its legislation on Nov. 29, Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, host of the upcoming caucuses, promptly placed a hold on the bill, which is expected to have broad support from his Senate colleagues.

The 112th Congress has made little progress of any sort and none at all on immigration. There is no reason a bill that passed the House by an overwhelming margin should be stymied in the Senate. For the health of the U.S. economy -- and perhaps for the health of Congress itself -- this eminently passable, aggressively unobjectionable, bipartisan legislation should be approved quickly.

[iyer]

You are correct; thanks for pointing out it should be 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 with the additional 20K SOFAD. In my 2500 per month I also include porting.
Refer to my Post # 4323 just before your post.
With the dates currently at Mar 15th we are already at 33K intake out of which lets call 8K as buffer and 25K as SOFAD.
8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months)

So essentially passage of HR 3012 if it gets passed in Dec and assuming ROW does not use more than 6K by then we should get another 20K (8 more months). This @ 2500 per month brings us to 01-JAN-2009 instead of 2010. I was counting both India and China but applied 45K post 15-MAR-2008, we must include the SOFAD used to reach this point as well.

Thanks Teddy.

On another note, I want to appreciate you for your continued patience and relentless analysis. It is very difficult to analyse when there are many unknown variables, and one can easily lose interest in such a scenario. However, you have never lost interest or patience.

I have a feeling that if 3012 gets passed, CO may bring EB2 dates to current, to get a better idea of people waiting in the pipeline, so that First In FIrst Out could be applied accurately. Once the demand data is determined, then he will retrogress. People may call this wishful thinking, but I don't see anything wrong in that approach. It helps the administration to gauge the demand accurately.

[gcinprogress]

copy/paste from Bloomberg:

Republican presidential candidates are busy competing to make the most nativist appeals for votes. After the House passed its legislation on Nov. 29, Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, host of the upcoming caucuses, promptly placed a hold on the bill, which is expected to have broad support from his Senate colleagues.

The 112th Congress has made little progress of any sort and none at all on immigration. There is no reason a bill that passed the House by an overwhelming margin should be stymied in the Senate. For the health of the U.S. economy -- and perhaps for the health of Congress itself -- this eminently passable, aggressively unobjectionable, bipartisan legislation should be approved quickly.

Thanks for posting this.

[gcinprogress]

Perhaps you are not happy with his answers but as long as he is good at answering questions that help people I don't see a problem with it. He never bluffs or makes any grand predictions to include his priority date either. He is very genuine.

Heck, he's even agreed that his predictions were the closest to the recent movement and has given GC_On_Demand credit for the best predictions to date (at March 2008 movement).

Perhaps there is another reason?

Completely agree with you on all counts:). Teddy's presence has been a boon to all of us:).

[skpanda]

Teddy... u r doing gr8 help to folks out here.. please ignore these kind of people.

The guy who gave his opinion on you has not contributed enough to this forum or its people to even get 1 second worth of your attention.

I and many other people here have received your prompt help on this forum on many occassions. We truly appreciate your time on this.

Good Job!!



I do not agree with your statement that all my calculations are done based on estimates of others, you can refer to the header of the thread and read everything in black and white. It is only for the perm figures which I have not calculated on my own entirely I have referenced work by others on IV and other sites, there are huge differences in all perm calculations because no one can ever agree on the EB2 - EB3 Split and the ROW I/C Split. However the translation ratios of perm to 485 and arriving at 2500 porting inclusive per month is entirely my own original thought and work. On the contrary I have seen you copy entirely perm figures from another source in its entirety. Thus far I had avoided responding to you, on another note in the entire last year I had never stated that my own date could be current had always maintained that it will be a very long shot and quite truly it was the case.
Please refer to my response to iyer I had a wrong reference point to count; the end result should be 01-JAN-2009. From your post following is very interesting there is a discrepancy of 4.5K between the inventory and the demand data. Demand data said 8.5K while inventory is 13K, this is really very significant and a good find because it is finally the inventory that will matter it implies that there were 4.5K PWMB cases filed in the heavy movements last year or its porting not approved. Porting I assume to be a part of 2500 whereas you are assuming it to be separate as another 6-8K. So your figures are 12K higher which may mean 4-5 months less movement, I guess otherwise we are in sync.

[haramihokie]

Teddy, please dont stop your work !! there are so many negative people out there but you are our hope

[john-mac]

Teddy ! You Rock.
Please don’t get distracted.

[gc_on_demand]

Thanks for posting. With the dates at 15-MAR-2008, I believe that they have covered just 28.5K. There is a very good chance of additional intake for the next bulletin. Looks like everything is happening by some predefined plan. Next VB dates could be between 01-MAY-2008 to 01-JUL-2008. If the dates reach 01-JUL-2008 in the next VB then they will start to retrogress.

I think we should give due credit to gc_on_demand who had stated long back that movement to Jun 2008 was possible to cover NVC notices, I think his prediction is almost about to come true.

Thanks for kind words, since working in retail was very busy these days also my date was current so that added extra load on spare time that spent on calculations. I just want to pass a message to all people who wants to track when date become current , follow NVC receipts. I have been tracking for family based for last 4 years but it took me while to figure out. And it's proven for emp based also. Two thing immigrant community should do. Ask lawyer to add cp option in I 140 , you can choose AOS later too. That way Nvc will send out more and more fee notices and do post them as you get so people can add 6 to 8 months to find out when date will be current.

[velagale]

Teddy !
Keep going. You are a cool head , dont allow anything distract you !
Your contribution is just amazing.

[velagale]

mechanical13.
HR3012 is taking its course and i did my part as part of the Action items. Lets hope it passes.

But this thread is different, and no admin has any right whatsoever to delete innocuous and encouraging posts. If i were the admin i would respect people posts, unless they are completely derogatory and harmful in nature. A better method would be to strike off any objectionable parts. (But not sure if there is such a feature), but not ruthless deletion without any respect.
I dont want to reiterate, this web site is called Immigration"Voice". Whats the point, when you just try to suppress other's voice ? Please not that administration is a responsible job and one's rights need to respected !

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you have questions about HR 3012 and its impact.

- HR 3012 helps EB2 and EB3 India alike. This bill creates flat categories in 3 years; however even in the interim the allocation is quite favorable to the retrogressed counties.

- If the full year is available to the bill or only a quarter elapses by then the agencies can still honor the desired allocations EB2 will get 20K extra visas and EB3 may get 25-30K.

- The movement for EB3 India will be much faster in the first year relatively because the density is less that EB2 I and because of years of being at the bottom of spillover pyramid and all other countries are way ahead for EB2, India and China go hand in hand.

- If the bill were to pass this month then EB2-I will likely reach 01-JAN-2009 and EB3-I will reach 01-JAN-2005. We have discussed / calculated this earlier in the thread the credit is all collective. If the bill has a delayed approval it will delay the inevitable only by a few months.

- The 112th congress has 1 full year so the bill can be potentially be passed anytime even in the entire next year. We would all hope for a early passage to usher in an era of fairness. Country caps have struck Eb2 and Eb3 retrogressed alike we are 5 years behind our counterparts from ROW.

[TeddyKoochu]

For EB3 - Next VB is the beginning of the new quarter the movement could be between a week to a month. EB3-I should be able to reach 01-DEC-2002 by Sep 2012 without HR 3012.

For EB2 - Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through. Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more). Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however at least for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2009 by the end of FY 2012.

[PrinceVA]

Team,
Just got the email from USCIS saying 131 and 765 approved. Dont they have to send for production the travel document or it is just a piece of paper ?

I am one of those PWMB,got current in October, applied on Oct 3, fp on 7 nov. for EAD and Travel document. After 2 months, they approved it and now waiting for EAD to come printed in hand, I guess it may take 2-3 weeks or so.

Any idea, how long will it take for GC if the dates will remain current ? Any calculations on the visa availability for those who got current ?

Thanx,
Chirag ../

[coldcloud]

TSC
Sent date: 28-Nov
RD:29-Nov
ND:30-Nov

Received notices by USCIS on 05- Dec.

[winsomelad]

Teddy - For EB3 - Next VB is the beginning of the new quarter the movement could be between a week to a month. EB3-I should be able to reach 01-DEC-2002 by Sep 2012 without HR 3012.

For EB2 - Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through. Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more). Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however at least for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2009 by the end of FY 2012.


Hi Everyone,

I would like to request team members to stop worthless verbal contribution and do a usefull information sharing. Experts like Teddy and rest are really contributing there efforts and intresets, even after they got their Visa Dates. So I really appreciate, if team members can contribute mellowed discussions like GOLDENAGERS.

Thanks

[rkg000]

I guess there was no need for this post :).

[rkp]

For EB3 - Next VB is the beginning of the new quarter the movement could be between a week to a month. EB3-I should be able to reach 01-DEC-2002 by Sep 2012 without HR 3012.



Teddy,

Are you sure about this? There are more than 3000 in the queue. Demand data from last month shows 4575 before Jan, 2003. Decemeber 2002 has a demand of 903 per the latest inventory. My guess would be 01-Nov-2002.

Are you considering anything else for your prediction?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Are you sure about this? There are more than 3000 in the queue. Demand data from last month shows 4575 before Jan, 2003. Decemeber 2002 has a demand of 903 per the latest inventory. My guess would be 01-Nov-2002.

Are you considering anything else for your prediction?

The EB3-India movement last year exceeded the inventory, there are several people in the inventory who have obtained GC looks like by other means like a) Porting b) One person becoming citizen and then sponsoring spouse. Other than that I think these cases attract EVL RFE's so movement will be higher to have a buffer. I hope the whole of Nov would cater as a buffer and dates would reach 01-DEC-2002 (Demand till here is 3900 so kind of 1000 as buffer), 01-NOV-2002 is exact 3000. EB3-I has now entered a very dense phase.

[gc_on_demand]

Person with jan 2008 got fee notice from Nvc in April-may time frame and it took 8 month to get it current. One of member Vick got notice for June 2008 date in may-June there are no more reports on fee notices from that month. Now we have started to see fee receipt for aug- sep 2008. My prediction is if date will move June 2008 in jan then it will be final move and in feb date will retro. If it will not reach June 2008 but April 2008 then one more chance in feb.


In sep-oct date will move again and first move will be till aug 2008. People till that date will get gc if everything goes by dos plan. This is without considering hr3012.

[nat23]

Just wondering if the demand data that will be published either today or tomorrow will have any impact on the COD in the Jan VB, given the fact that the CO is moving dates to create a pipeline.

Cheers
Nat

[TeddyKoochu]

Just wondering if the demand data that will be published either today or tomorrow will have any impact on the COD in the Jan VB, given the fact that the CO is moving dates to create a pipeline.

Cheers
Nat

If demand data is less than 10K assuming all Pre 01-NOV filers are in its good news, if for any reason this number exceeds 10K then it does not augur well. Basically demand data showing 10K means 18.5K SOFAD assuming 8.5K already consumed. The demand data for EB3 - I & other retrogressed countries will also be interesting to watch as the inventory atleast last year appeared to have redundant cases.

[ApVish]

Hi Teddy,

Wouldn't it take atleast 6 months for the Pre-Nov filers to show up as demand (since it takes approx 6 months to process 485 ?). In which case, shouldn't the DD look almost identical to last month ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

Wouldn't it take atleast 6 months for the Pre-Nov filers to show up as demand (since it takes approx 6 months to process 485 ?). In which case, shouldn't the DD look almost identical to last month ?

Yes I agree with you if the logic is that the case has to be preadjudicated then that count should be near zero. Lets see what it is if 2500 then only Oct filers are in if its 10K then Nov filers are also in. Good luck to all, VB should be out by Friday.

[TeddyKoochu]

Pappu - I believe it’s time to take out the restriction of being able to login to view this thread. This will make it more convenient for all to review this thread. Those who are inclined to post definitely will need an id. Even IV action item threads are public without login so I don't believe there is any reason why login should be enforced on this thread. Having login mandatory at times deters people to visit this thread.

[winsomelad]

Hi Teddy,

I think it is better to keep this thread as private, becuse there are lot of things going on around Internet.

I mean to say : 1) It restricts to view, only the members interested to view and take part, instead of random netgens view post and react to login and post the comments.
2) Lot of Opp Immi people are surfing to do analysis and reviews of Immi IC people loops
3) Even though now it is private, still lot of people diverting and misrepresenting their views.

[pappu]

All posts not related to predictions may be deleted on this thread by moderators.

Desiserv the news of hold and links are spammed every 15 min by all kinds of people. And thus deleted. Our forums need to stay clean. These days all kinds of people are trying to disrupt forums and we are keeping it focused in the interest of the bill. Sometimes legit posts may be deleted or that we do not want to distract discussion from action items. So please understand and help us. Any inconvenience is regretted.

Moderators please delete posts of people complaining about deletion since it is answered publicly now.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

I think it is better to keep this thread as private, becuse there are lot of things going on around Internet.

I mean to say : 1) It restricts to view, only the members interested to view and take part, instead of random netgens view post and react to login and post the comments.
2) Lot of Opp Immi people are surfing to do analysis and reviews of Immi IC people loops
3) Even though now it is private, still lot of people diverting and misrepresenting their views.

Appreciate your point of view it’s quite true and valid as well. However anyone who is interested can always create and id, read and post. This is dissuading genuine people to come here and read, it makes it more cumbersome. My point is that if this restriction is not there even on the advocacy thread then why this one.

[TeddyKoochu]

Appreciate your point of view it’s quite true and valid as well. However anyone who is interested can always create and id, read and post. This is dissuading genuine people to come here and read, it makes it more cumbersome. My point is that if this restriction is not there even on the advocacy thread then why this one.

Friends, Pappu just notified me via PM, login will not be required anymore to view this thread. Hope it helps all genuine people who come here to get information.

[vick]

Person with jan 2008 got fee notice from Nvc in April-may time frame and it took 8 month to get it current. One of member Vick got notice for June 2008 date in may-June there are no more reports on fee notices from that month. Now we have started to see fee receipt for aug- sep 2008. My prediction is if date will move June 2008 in jan then it will be final move and in feb date will retro. If it will not reach June 2008 but April 2008 then one more chance in feb.


In sep-oct date will move again and first move will be till aug 2008. People till that date will get gc if everything goes by dos plan. This is without considering hr3012.

Hi GC,

Good to hear from you. Just wanted to re-iterate that my date is 12 June, 2008 and I got the NVC notices almost 3-4 months back.

[sk.aggarwal]

Friends, Pappu just notified me via PM, login will not be required anymore to view this thread. Hope it helps all genuine people who come here to get information.

Awesome and Thanks for following up on this :)

[shomu001]

I am a new member joined Immigration Voice 10 days back. My PD is 12-Dec-2008. Any predictions when this date will be current?


thanks

[rxd9507IV]

Folks,

My wife & I applied for I485
Details:
PD = 12/23/2007
Center = Texas (TSC)
Applied on = 11/30/2011
Check deducted = 12/06/2011

Few funny things:
Never been happier to see money going away from our accounts.
We put an alert on check debit of >200 so I get an email alert and it did not work because they electronically deposited (ACH debit)

Good luck to all of you.

[ctm1234]

I am a new member joined Immigration Voice 10 days back. My PD is 12-Dec-2008. Any predictions when this date will be current?


thanks

jan 2012 is the answer....

[evoori]

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

EB2 I is 1 Jan 2009.. enjoy..

[ctm1234]

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

[ctm1234]

teddy , what is your analysis on eb 2 now.

[FedUpwithGC]

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

Very Good News!!!

[rssb]

After 12.5 years finally for me.

Please support H.R.3012. It is the only way to end the discrimination based on nationality in EB category. For diversity maintenance there is already a 50K separate quota.

Retrogression is always possible, people who are current could still be stuck with EAD, even if it is not as long as the 2007 EAD batch.

[arun_ramani]

I would say it is pure demand destruction and those who predict have completely missed it. Anyways I would say guys in 2009 and 2010 should feel optimistic!! Congratulations for those who became current!!!

[mastmunda]

After 8 yrs in US - I am finally current :D - waiting on official word.

Guys, let's continue to support for HR3012 - don't drop the ball. This is the only way we can end this discrimination based on the country of origin.

Good luck to all who are current!!

[AshokApex]

Congurate all , to become current.
Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

[snathan]

Good to see the big movement....hope its not going to retro in the coming months.

[spartantummala9]

Congrats to all who are current and all the best to the ones who are on wait list.

[fatboysam]

Good to see the big movement....hope its not going to retro in the coming months.

I was about to ask this, i think nobody knows, we haven't seen anyone in this discussion forum who has predicted things consistently, only when something happens, then so called expert come up with their expert opinion, right ? ;)

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends this is great and amazing news, congratulations to everyone who is current. We are now kind of at the 45K mark from where FY 2011 ended. This bulletin can in a very large part be attributed to the positive sentiment around HR 3012; the bulletin is way beyond any expectations or predictions. All the best once again to those who became current.

[chikna]

What will happen if HR 3012 passes? There will not be any visas left after the EB2 movement. How can they adjust visas for EB3?

[sdeshpan]

This is great news...however, this also sounds like a big intake is what they are looking for. After this starting next month there might be some real serious retrogression, back in to mid-2008...is that a fair assessment?

[snathan]

This is great news...however, this also sounds like a big intake is what they are looking for. After this starting next month there might be some real serious retrogression, back in to mid-2008...is that a fair assessment?

Yes...that would be possible without H.R.3012. May be the USCIS anticipates the H.R.3012will become reality soon and preparing for that.

[thomachan72]

Yes...that would be possible without H.R.3012. May be the USCIS anticipates the H.R.3012will become reality soon and preparing for that.
Dont think CIS would decide PD movements based on 3012 that is still in workshop and needs our help.

[sdeshpan]

Yes...that would be possible without H.R.3012. May be the USCIS anticipates the H.R.3012will become reality soon and preparing for that.

Yep that's what I meant...without HR 3012. I remain cautiously optimistic but retrogression is a real possibility especially now that the dates have jumped so far ahead for EB-2 I. Do we have any estimates as to what it could retrogress to? My gut is some time in summer of 2008 and it might stay there waiting for either passage of 3012 or FY 2013, whichever happens first.

[TeddyKoochu]

What will happen if HR 3012 passes? There will not be any visas left after the EB2 movement. How can they adjust visas for EB3?

After HR 3012 passes EB3-I will get a lion's share of visas from the EB3 allocation of 40K and will move fast till it catches up with EB3 ROW. EB2 even after HR 3012 passes will not become current anytime soon, EB2 ROW will see a priority date established as it will retrogress.

[BlueRidge]

Official visa bulletin is out

Visa Bulletin For January 2012 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5630.html)

Congrates to all who are current.

[rickyp]

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[sj8ua]

Teddy,

My PD in EB2-I is Mar, 2011. With the rate it is going can I expect my PD to be current by Sept 2013, with or without HR 3012?

[chikna]

EB2 will be current in 2 years. Do you think EB3-I will get all spillover? If so, 2 years wait time is not bad.

[sdeshpan]

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

Wow it sounds like next month might see some movement as well!! I wonder what's the basis of this...is there really such low demand for AOS applications? Sounds unreal...

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

My PD in EB2-I is Mar, 2011. With the rate it is going can I expect my PD to be current by Sept 2013, with or without HR 3012?

The bulletin is moving more on sentiment around HR 3012, they have mentioned significant demand destruction so its really going to be a 50-50 situation even for the next VB.

[TeddyKoochu]

EB2 will be current in 2 years. Do you think EB3-I will get all spillover? If so, 2 years wait time is not bad.


EB2 will take 3-4 years to be literally current even if we have high SOFAD, quite literally this may never happen if the market picks up. With HR 3012 India will get a huge chunk of EB3 numbers. From the point when the bill passed you should get your GC in 2.5 years.

[sdeshpan]

The bulletin is moving more on sentiment around HR 3012, they have mentioned significant demand destruction so its really going to be a 50-50 situation even for the next VB.
You quoted the guy with a PD in 2011...you didn't mean 50-50 chances of his 2011 PD being current, did you? :)

[pillagandhi]

How can demand go down after Perm/LC

Does this mean destroyed careers (May be better elsewhere) and people left while waiting for this mirage of GC?

[TeddyKoochu]

You quoted the guy with a PD in 2011...you didn't mean 50-50 chances of his 2011 PD being current, did you? :)

Sorry that’s a typo, I was mistaken thought he was Mar 2009. Yes net VB also movement is possible with the current sentiment but it will stay well within 2009.

[sdeshpan]

Sorry that’s a typo, I was mistaken thought he was Mar 2009. Yes net VB also movement is possible with the current sentiment but it will stay well within 2009.
Not to sound selfish but your "within 2009" prediction works for me as long as it goes in July! :D

it would be very interesting to see what the next couple of months looks like!

[snathan]

Dont think CIS would decide PD movements based on 3012 that is still in workshop and needs our help.

If it passes, they have the preadjusticated apps for approval...if not, they can retro the dates.

[Pappu_Pager]

I would say it is pure demand destruction and those who predict have completely missed it. Anyways I would say guys in 2009 and 2010 should feel optimistic!! Congratulations for those who became current!!!


What do u mean by demand destruction .. ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Not to sound selfish but your "within 2009" prediction works for me as long as it goes in July! :D

it would be very interesting to see what the next couple of months looks like!

The next couple of months will surely be interesting. The current movement is simply beyond any calculations it is completely at the discretion of the agencies to build up a new inventory.

[abhi_july2010]

No offence to all the calculations, but looking at the number of applications in 2009 and how dates have moved from 2006 to 2009 this year, it won't be a surprise but very highly likely that by oct 2012 dates become current for eb2i and then we have some relief for EB3.

To all those folks in EB3 if you haven't yet started working towards a masters please do so, you have the capability and instead of being at the mercy of law makers, carve your destiny. A masters will help you move fast as well as provide you with an option to negotiate better salaries in India as well as here in USA.

[Pappu_Pager]

The next couple of months will surely be interesting. The current movement is simply beyond any calculations it is completely at the discretion of the agencies to build up a new inventory.

We should not get deviated from pressing HR3012.. Not sure, if it is so .. but sounds to me that this might be for separating EB2 support for this bill .. they may put PD for EB2 way ahead and then once things cool down .. they will keep all EB-2s on EAD .. like they did in 2007 fiasco .. We should deviate this time for pressing for HR3012 ... This bill will further accelerate the dates for all .. including ROW in future, if not in near term, plus it is a fair-deal bill, as well ..

[poonam333]

Congratulations to all who are current !!

I have a query. I know this is not the correct thread. But I need your expert advise. Please help. We are current in January bulletin. But we need to go to India in Feb for a marriage. How long the EAD process take and what are our options? My husband is on H1b and I am on H4 and our visas are already stamped.

Request you guys to provide some information..

[baleraosreedhar]

People are struck in EB3 not because of ability, but because of companies and lawyers stupidity.

Masters will not help to move to EB2, it all depends on the job requirements, luck and a good immigration lawyer.

So please dont give false hopes about masters will get you in EB2 and dont try to start a bias war on Masters and EB2 vs EB3

[larun]

Guys I have been in this country from ~11 years and cannot believe I am current today. I checked the bulletin couple of times :)

Congrats to all who are current!

[Pappu_Pager]

People are struck in EB3 not because of ability, but because of companies and lawyers stupidity.

Masters will not help to move to EB2, it all depends on the job requirements, luck and a good immigration lawyer.

So please dont give false hopes about masters will get you in EB2 and dont try to start a bias war on Masters and EB2 vs EB3
That is true . .in our company, there are many indian / chinese who did Master from US but all are in EB3 due to "company policy" :mad:

[Pappu_Pager]

Guys I have been in this country from ~11 years and cannot believe I am current today. I checked the bulletin couple of times :)

Congrats to all who are current!

congrats .. do make donation if you feel sharing this joy moment with others in similar boat, you were in, till yesterday ..

[sj8ua]

How about the fact that there would be much less applications in 2009-2010 compared to 2007-2008 due to recession. Shouldn't we expect a faster movement now that EB2-I just made to 2009. What is expected EB2-I demand data pending in 2008/2009/2010?

[lovenil]

It seems like USCIS is not releasing demand date for January 2012 visa bulletin. I know people already got good news but would like to see why they see destruction of demand.. only they ave seen is demand upto Nov 2007..

[chikna]

This is it. Majority of EB2 folks are current. Only EB3 (210,000) people left out from this system and I don't see those people here. Will there be spillover coming directly to EB3?

[vvext]

Sorry that’s a typo, I was mistaken thought he was Mar 2009. Yes net VB also movement is possible with the current sentiment but it will stay well within 2009.


We should stop this prediction business and lets not bring personal prejudices (wishing the date doesn't move) just because we have become current, this wishful thinking is bad.

[lovenil]

I didn't see demand date for Jan 2012 bulleting.

Even with good news, i would like to understand "destruction of demand"..

[gcgonewild]

11 years.
3 Presidents.
WTC was still standing.
5 or more countries created.
2 billion + people.
and so on..

Finally Removing from my signature : "485 : Won't live to apply"

Many thanks to IV, Core, Aman, VdlRao, then Q, then Teddy. Seriously they kept us here. Relentless efforts. Hats off guys.

[sandy_anand]

11 years.
3 Presidents.
WTC was still standing.
5 or more countries created.
2 billion + people.
and so on..

Finally Removing from my signature : "485 : Won't live to apply"

Many thanks to IV, Core, Aman, VdlRao, then Q, then Teddy. Seriously they kept us here. Relentless efforts. Hats off guys.

Same here brother! Congratulations to all who finally became current.

At this time let's not forget the plight of our EB3 brothers and sisters. Let the fight for fairness continue.

Remember - this is not just about us but about fairness to all including future generations of skilled workers.

[TeddyKoochu]

We should stop this prediction business and lets not bring personal prejudices (wishing the date doesn't move) just because we have become current, this wishful thinking is bad.

I think a better way of saying would be that predictions backed by calculations were exceeded. This is because we are in the discretion territory. I believe you have chosen the wrong post to comment, the poster there was just wishing that his / her date becomes current. With regards me Iam certainly happy that more and more people are getting current. We all create hope on this blog but try to be realistic, it is not correct to create unrealistic expectations, however when the results surprise us it’s a reason to feel happy nothing wrong with the approach. The current movement is totally discretion driven to create inventory.

[TeddyKoochu]

I would say it is pure demand destruction and those who predict have completely missed it. Anyways I would say guys in 2009 and 2010 should feel optimistic!! Congratulations for those who became current!!!

I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers. Today’s bulletin is great news for every one of us especially for those who became current it’s a great feeling. The movement though is definitely in the territory of discretion even though there may have been more destruction than thought off or HR 3012 looks like CO has made his call based on his own discretion and judgment. Only the new inventory can bring us true insight in reality. With discretion reigning supreme as of now nothing can be said of what may happen next month, good luck to everyone. Let’s wait and watch and hope for the best now for everyone who is on the cusp of being current.

[frustratingGC]

I think a better way of saying would be that predictions backed by calculations were exceeded. This is because we are in the discretion territory. I believe you have chosen the wrong post to comment, the poster there was just wishing that his / her date becomes current. With regards me Iam certainly happy that more and more people are getting current. We all create hope on this blog but try to be realistic, it is not correct to create unrealistic expectations, however when the results surprise us it’s a reason to feel happy nothing wrong with the approach. The current movement is totally discretion driven to create inventory.

Predication helps to except worst case scnerios taking current conditions in account, prediction take lot of effect to constantly update with the new data, you are doing great:)

[ghost]

After HR 3012 passes EB3-I will get a lion's share of visas from the EB3 allocation of 40K and will move fast till it catches up with EB3 ROW. EB2 even after HR 3012 passes will not become current anytime soon, EB2 ROW will see a priority date established as it will retrogress.

Let's fight for EB3, HR3012 is a just cause. Let's not relax because of this EB2 news and fight harder for EB3 and on behalf of Immigration Voice in general (heard from Pappu that STEM exemption got introduced in Senate - long way to go).

[dodsatya]

guys,

How soon can one get their EAD once they apply the I-485?.

[greencard.wait]

I think EB2 date will get stuck for next 2 years to Jan 2009 date.. Please support HR 3012.

No offence to all the calculations, but looking at the number of applications in 2009 and how dates have moved from 2006 to 2009 this year, it won't be a surprise but very highly likely that by oct 2012 dates become current for eb2i and then we have some relief for EB3.

To all those folks in EB3 if you haven't yet started working towards a masters please do so, you have the capability and instead of being at the mercy of law makers, carve your destiny. A masters will help you move fast as well as provide you with an option to negotiate better salaries in India as well as here in USA.

[psagarn]

Is there a way to figure out the # of approved I140 in EB2 category for 2008, 2009 and 2010?

[helpful_leo]

Guys,

Congrats to all who are current, including me! Came here in 2000, got current today.

Btw, all of us, let us keep fighting for HR 3012! Even those who are current, we have to remember this will retrogress and we will be stuck in EAD limbo.

And even otherwise, as people who have experienced the pain of waiting decades for this, we should understand the unfairness of the system and the pain of others in this mess. Go IV!

Couple of Qs for Teddy or others:

1/ If I have been doing the GC process through our company law firm till now – can we file for I-485 using our own lawyer (or by ourselves)?( I am being a little paranoid here- what if the company lawyer screws up or misses things; or the company is not very keen about processing our I-485 an we miss the 25 day window)

2/ If the above is possible, what documents / information do we need from the company to file for I-485?

3/ Can someone please link to what the steps are associated with filing for I-485?

Thank you all.

$300.00 for HR 3012 till now

[AllIzzWell]

Gurus, please advise on the above questions.

1) Can we file 485 without the company attorney?
2) I do not want to miss this opportunity.

Thanks

[snathan]

Congratulations to all who are current !!

I have a query. I know this is not the correct thread. But I need your expert advise. Please help. We are current in January bulletin. But we need to go to India in Feb for a marriage. How long the EAD process take and what are our options? My husband is on H1b and I am on H4 and our visas are already stamped.

Request you guys to provide some information..

At least 90 days...

[AshokApex]

Hi All,

i have question today visa bulletin released and by this my PD is current , which is Jun 08, EB2 ,
when i can apply I-485, my attroney said i can apply in jan 2nd or 3rd,
he said this is jan bulletin so it ll start from jan 2012 only.
do any one know when i can apply , why not in this month?

[poonam333]

At least 90 days...

Snathan,

Thanks for your input. Could you please suggest if we can go on our current visas after submitting the documents in Jan? What are its implications?

[Pappu_Pager]

As current VB says that, it was due to lack of demand they moved it so ahead .. Guess what -- they are not gonna get more demand by Jan 10th 2012 (when Feb VB will come out ) -- Reason --- All Lawyer, employers, even beneficiaries etc would be going for vacation from next week, considering long holidays .. so there will not be significant increase in demand . .and they will be again tempted to move it further .. May be after Feb VB, it will slow down or retro ... Mid 2009 people hold on for good news ..

People who would missing Feb VB -- dont worry . .support IV here, donate more to have HR3012 Passed and we all would see Jan 2010 by end of Sep 2012 ... and also, friends in EB-3 will gain some momentum ..

Dont deviate / neglect HR3012 ...

[snathan]

Snathan,

Thanks for your input. Could you please suggest if we can go on our current visas after submitting the documents in Jan? What are its implications?

You can not go without getting AP, otherwise it will be considered you are abandoning your GC. I am not sure how your Visa stamp on the passport will impact that. Check with your attorney.

[lovenil]

You can not go without getting AP, otherwise it will be considered you are abandoning your GC. I am not sure how your Visa stamp on the passport will impact that. Check with your attorney.

If you and your husband have valid H4/H1 stamped on your passport you can travel based on that. We are in same boat as we just applied for I-485 this month and travelling in January.

Only requirement is when filing occurs you need to be in US .

Confirmed with multiple attorney!!!

[helpful_leo]

You can not go without getting AP, otherwise it will be considered you are abandoning your GC. I am not sure how your Visa stamp on the passport will impact that. Check with your attorney.


Snathan

Can you pls give your opinion on these Qs? Thanks.

1/ If I have been doing the GC process through our company law firm till now – can we file for I-485 using our own lawyer (or by ourselves)?( I am being a little paranoid here- what if the company lawyer screws up or misses things; or the company is not very keen about processing our I-485 an we miss the 25 day window)

2/ If the above is possible, what documents / information do we need from the company to file for I-485?

3/ Can someone please link to what the steps are associated with filing for I-485?

Thank you.


$300.00 for HR 3012 till now

[imdeng]

You can file 485 with your own lawyer. You only need EVL from your company.
There is an awesome post-485 thread in Q's Blog - you can find an exhaustive list of steps and details there.

Snathan

Can you pls give your opinion on these Qs? Thanks.

1/ If I have been doing the GC process through our company law firm till now – can we file for I-485 using our own lawyer (or by ourselves)?( I am being a little paranoid here- what if the company lawyer screws up or misses things; or the company is not very keen about processing our I-485 an we miss the 25 day window)

2/ If the above is possible, what documents / information do we need from the company to file for I-485?

3/ Can someone please link to what the steps are associated with filing for I-485?

Thank you.


$300.00 for HR 3012 till now

[imdeng]

Thats not correct. Once you have filed your 485, you CAN travel on your H1B/H4. Only problem is that if you get an RFI then you won't be around to act on it - although a good lawyer should take care of it for you.
It is recommended that once you apply for 485, when you enter the country, you enter on your AP rather than the visa stamp - however, if you are getting back before 90 days from your day of filing then you will not have EAD/AP by then - so you are good.
You can not go without getting AP, otherwise it will be considered you are abandoning your GC. I am not sure how your Visa stamp on the passport will impact that. Check with your attorney.

[Rahulkilaru]

My priority date is Nov 20th and I am current now. Thank you very much teddy and other moderators for predictions. My friend called Murthy last month regarding the visa bulletin prediction whose current date is also similar to mine Nov 22nd. They told him that you will be current on January 2012. I am really suprised with the dates mentioned in todays bulletin. My question is how come they could be so confident. Is USCIS updating them ahead.

[designserve]

A note to filers from Jan 1, 2012 : Pls file the I 693 form for Medicals or it will be rejected.
USCIS - I-693, Report of Medical Examination and Vaccination Record (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=eb1f3591ec04d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCR D&vgnextchannel=db029c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

[visitor2010]

My priority date is current with this bulletin. I however switched jobs and the new compnay has complete processing for the new perm - but will file only next week. Is my only option to let the perm process continue with this new company and hope dates don't retrogress?

Can I file i-485 myself using my previous company's application so far? Pls excuse, if this sounds silly , but after waiting all this time, thought I would ask .


Thanks!

[helpful_leo]

You can file 485 with your own lawyer. You only need EVL from your company.
There is an awesome post-485 thread in Q's Blog - you can find an exhaustive list of steps and details there.

Thanks v much imdeng.

I will check there.

[greencard.wait]

I hope people won't get stuck with EAD. Please support H.R. 3012.

[penna]

My priority date is current with this bulletin. I however switched jobs and the new compnay has complete processing for the new perm - but will file only next week. Is my only option to let the perm process continue with this new company and hope dates don't retrogress?

Can I file i-485 myself using my previous company's application so far? Pls excuse, if this sounds silly , but after waiting all this time, thought I would ask .


Thanks!

There are 2 possibilities in your case. If HR 3012 is passed, you are going to loose nothing; your case will still be current by the time your new employer gets your labor approved.
If the HR 3012 didn’t come thru’, the dates are most likely to retrogress in the coming VBs and it would be only after October 2012 ,you can expect April 2008 become current again.

I think GC is for future employment. I don’t see why you cannot apply for GC using your previous employer’s I-140. But, for that the following is the requirement :
a. your previous employer did not cancel your approved I-140
b. Your previous employer should provide you an EVL.

[h1techSlave]

The next couple of months will surely be interesting. The current movement is simply beyond any calculations it is completely at the discretion of the agencies to build up a new inventory.

To me it looks like the CO is implementing HR3012. They are moving the dates so far into the future for EB2-I. That way they will be too busy processing India applications and would not process freshly submitted ROW EB2 cases.

In other words, if CO is allowed to build up some inventory of EB2 I applications, what is preventing the CO from building up a huge pile of EB2 I applications by making EB2 I Current?

[penna]

To me it looks like the CO is implementing HR3012. They are moving the dates so far into the future for EB2-I. That way they will be too busy processing India applications and would not process freshly submitted ROW EB2 cases.

In other words, if CO is allowed to build up some inventory of EB2 I applications, what is preventing the CO from building up a huge pile of EB2 I applications by making EB2 I Current?

I think he is only building a pipeline , may be with an eye on HR 3012 ; But , if HR 3012 becomes law, most probably they may make the PD current for both EB2 & EB3 for a month or so and then retrogress it (similar to 2007 ). To come up with a single cut-off date for all countries, I think that is the best solution …

[visitor2010]

Thank you for replying ..

Yes to both the points you mentioned - my previous employer has not cancelled my i140 and I have an employment verification letter from them , which I was going to use for my new PERM.

[mk26]

I think he is only building a pipeline , may be with an eye on HR 3012 ; But , if HR 3012 becomes law, most probably they may make the PD current for both EB2 & EB3 for a month or so and then retrogress it (similar to 2007 ). To come up with a single cut-off date for all countries, I think that is the best solution …
Just a thought -- plz don't give me red, Is it possible CO is wrong in calculation compare to Teddy's calculation and resulting an un expected movement.

[macy77]

Can someone tell me what is the current 485 application they are processing at the Texas Service Center?

On the website it says:


I-485 Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status Employment-based adjustment applications March 29, 2011

This is as of:
Field Office Processing Dates for Texas Service Center as of: September 30, 2011


So the current I am not sure where it is?

Regards

[TeddyKoochu]

Just a thought -- plz don't give me red, Is it possible CO is wrong in calculation compare to Teddy's calculation and resulting an un expected movement.

Thanks for your kind words. CO in all likelihood is creating a future inventory. If account for the approvals already done the figure is already at 45K. The size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion.

[nat23]

Thanks for your kind words. CO in all likelihood is creating a future inventory. If account for the approvals already done the figure is already at 45K. The size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion.

Teddy

Are we 100% sure that the approvals in the last quarter were from QSP and not from the left over numbers from prior FY

Cheers
Nat

[h1techSlave]

Thanks for your kind words. CO in all likelihood is creating a future inventory. If account for the approvals already done the figure is already at 45K. The size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion.

If the "size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion", what is preventing him from building an inventory of 100, 000 applications? And thus making EB2 current?

[Saralayar]

If the "size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion", what is preventing him from building an inventory of 100, 000 applications? And thus making EB2 current?
I like your comments....;););)

[Rb_newsletter]

After HR 3012 passes EB3-I will get a lion's share of visas from the EB3 allocation of 40K and will move fast till it catches up with EB3 ROW. EB2 even after HR 3012 passes will not become current anytime soon, EB2 ROW will see a priority date established as it will retrogress.

After HR 3012 passed there is no I, C, ROW, etc. There will be only EB2, EB3,..

[belmontboy]

If the "size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion", what is preventing him from building an inventory of 100, 000 applications? And thus making EB2 current?

What happened with Jan 2012 VB movement is something we have already seen in july 2007.
July 2007 was a mistake that they tried to correct in vain.
9 months movement is more reasonable than opening up flood gates.

By moving 9 months, CO is expecting to build a sizeable inventory for 2012 and possibly early 2013 quota.

[Rb_newsletter]

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.


This movement will only give you EAD/AP. Only way to go is HR-3012. Please follow the action items.

[mechanical13]

Folks,

The CO language appears to indicate that the intent of this forward movement in PD is in order to avoid Visa # wastage.

There is no reason for the VB to mention this fact. I am inclined to believe that this is about demand destruction.

For the calculation Gurus: Based on original estimates and current movement, can we estimate % perm demand destruction? This will enable us to extrapolate this trend to see how many more months of intake can be expected.

Teddy/ Others - your thoughts would be appreciated.

[FedUpwithGC]

Folks,

The CO language appears to indicate that the intent of this forward movement in PD is in order to avoid Visa # wastage.

There is no reason for the VB to mention this fact. I am inclined to believe that this is about demand destruction.

For the calculation Gurus: Based on original estimates and current movement, can we estimate % perm demand destruction? This will enable us to extrapolate this trend to see how many more months of intake can be expected.

Teddy/ Others - your thoughts would be appreciated.

DOL mentioned that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had a PERM approved in file (EB3->EB2 Porting) which may be the cause for significant EB2 movement in January. As most of the EB3 folks ported their dates after 2007 fiasco maybe 2008 will be lighter than we expect for actual EB2 filers.

Just my 2 Cents...

[shankar24]

my pd is aug 2010 eb2 any chance of being current in next 2 bulletins? ;)

[belmontboy]

Folks,

The CO language appears to indicate that the intent of this forward movement in PD is in order to avoid Visa # wastage.

There is no reason for the VB to mention this fact. I am inclined to believe that this is about demand destruction.

For the calculation Gurus: Based on original estimates and current movement, can we estimate % perm demand destruction? This will enable us to extrapolate this trend to see how many more months of intake can be expected.

Teddy/ Others - your thoughts would be appreciated.

sorry, but what exactly is "demand destruction"?

[helpful_leo]

Apologize for this post - cannot see a more appropriate active thread.

Can somebody please clarify these elementary concepts for me:

1/ I got current in today's i.e. Jan bulletin (totally unexpected, late Dec PD).
Does this mean we can apply for I-485 only on Jan 1st (and not next week)?

2/ How long is the I-485 application window period open? Jan 1-31st?

3/ I see a lot of posts and lawyer letters ask for "all your past I-797s / I-20s / I-94s". (But not the USCIS instructions here http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf ).

I do not have a copy of my first I-20 from 11 years ago, or the earlier I-797s? I do have most documentation from last 5 years.
Is this critical? Any way around it?

4/ Can we ask our company lawyer to file for our EAD / AP with the I-485? Does this usually concern the employers, as the AC21 clock starts ticking after EAD application (because of post-6yr H1B extension, EAD is not really needed in our case).

Apologize for long list of Qs!
_____________________________

$300.00 till now for H.R. 3012

[anemmani]

Apologize for this post - cannot see a more appropriate active thread.

Can somebody please clarify these elementary concepts for me:

1/ I got current in today's i.e. Jan bulletin (totally unexpected, late Dec PD).
Does this mean we can apply for I-485 only on Jan 1st (and not next week)?

2/ How long is the I-485 application window period open? Jan 1-31st?

3/ I see a lot of posts and lawyer letters ask for "all your past I-797s / I-20s / I-94s". (But not the USCIS instructions here http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf ).

I do not have a copy of my first I-20 from 11 years ago, or the earlier I-797s? I do have most documentation from last 5 years.
Is this critical? Any way around it?

4/ Can we ask our company lawyer to file for our EAD / AP with the I-485? Does this usually concern the employers, as the AC21 clock starts ticking after EAD application (because of post-6yr H1B extension, EAD is not really needed in our case).

Apologize for long list of Qs!
_____________________________

$300.00 till now for H.R. 3012

leo,

congratulations for your pd getting current in january.

1. your i485 application with all the supporting documents can be delivered to the uscis on any business day during the month[s] during which you are current.

2. i.e. any business day (for uscis) between jan 1st and jan 31st

3. the i797/i20/i94 are required the document your legal presence in US.

4. only photocopies of all previous i797/i20s and current i94 are required. if you do not have them contact your lawyer to disuss options.

5. you can request your company lawyer to file i131 and i765 applications along with your i485. there is no additional filing fee when these are mailed along with your i485.

good luck,
nag

[vvext]

I think a better way of saying would be that predictions backed by calculations were exceeded. This is because we are in the discretion territory. I believe you have chosen the wrong post to comment, the poster there was just wishing that his / her date becomes current. With regards me Iam certainly happy that more and more people are getting current. We all create hope on this blog but try to be realistic, it is not correct to create unrealistic expectations, however when the results surprise us it’s a reason to feel happy nothing wrong with the approach. The current movement is totally discretion driven to create inventory.

Sorry if you or anyone felt bad about my sarcasm....

[helpful_leo]

Thanks Nag / Annemani!

[rxd9507IV]

Great news for folks who became current but in the excitement do not lose focus away from HR 3012.

This movement is plain and simple pipeline builder for which any prediction would have been simply impossible. At the most this would help folks get EAD & AP, which are much better state than H1B/RFE driven road but is not where we want to be.

For records, I am EB2 (MS from US univ) and current in previous month.

We need to focus on HR 3012, that is the only solution to get GC.

1. Our EB3 folks are suffering. (One of my colleague, who is in US for 11 years, is sending his daughter to college and he is forced to pay international fee. It hurts to see this kind of injustice.

2. EB2 is still going to suffer for lack of GC numbers.

3. We are close to getting the bill that provides essential fairness. While I totally disagree with censorship on forums but this is not the time for internal fights.

4. Our future candidates need not suffer the way we are suffering.

5. IV is doing a decent job of fighting the system the way it needs to be fought.

As it stands, HR 3012 is the ONLY practical way to go.

Good luck to all.

[poonam333]

Thats not correct. Once you have filed your 485, you CAN travel on your H1B/H4. Only problem is that if you get an RFI then you won't be around to act on it - although a good lawyer should take care of it for you.
It is recommended that once you apply for 485, when you enter the country, you enter on your AP rather than the visa stamp - however, if you are getting back before 90 days from your day of filing then you will not have EAD/AP by then - so you are good.

Thanks Snathan, lovenil & imdeng ...

[mechanical13]

Guys,

First and foremost, I would like to say that we should all support HR 3012 -- its the right thing, its about fairness, and its the ONLY long term solution to the EB backlog. Regardless of whether one's priority dates is current or not, I would appreciate everyone to pitch in.

Because this thread is about EB2-EB3 predictions, I would like mention a couple of points regarding visa bulletin movement:

1) Visa bulletin specifically mentions that dates are being moved to avoid visa # wastage. If this is true, then clearly, this is not pipeline building. What this means is that CO is moving the dates so he can provide GCs to everyone who is current. There may be some pipeline building as a consequence, but that is clearly not the intent.

2) There is no reason why the CO should include language about visa bulletin movements in coming months. Why do they need to provide information to anyone? Would EB2 I/C not accept forward movement if they are given it? The fact that the CO is giving a reason for the forward movement tells me that demand is very low (as they also mention). This also tells me that most likely, the VB is going to continue to move forward.

3) The October 2011 Visa Bulletin date was April 2007. We are now 19 months ahead. Between April 2007 and March 2008, USCIS could have received a whole bunch of AOS applications, but it did not. This is a really significant development.

4) This tell me that a very large percentage of folks who had approved I-140s did not apply for AOS. Perhaps the bad economy, or something else has played a part.

5) Whatever the reason, there seems to be massive demand destruction. By demand destruction, I mean the scenario where someone has applied for a PERM and has not applied for a I-140 (letting the perm expire), or someone who has an approved I-140, but who has lost his job or returned back to India/China.

6) My thoughts are visa bulletin movement is directly related to demand destruction. I seems absolutely amazing that there is so much demand destruction, but not assuming so would mean that the VB language is false/ misrepresented.

7) There appears to be a very small percentage of people (5k ?) active with the various HR 3012 action items. This number seems incredibly small to me compared to the backlogs everyone has been book keeping (200k?). Demand destruction could explain the smaller than anticipated turnout here too.

That brings me to the following questions:

1) Assuming all our calculations are incorrect (and Pappu had mentioned this once in thread a few weeks back), what should one predict demand to be?

2) Using our current predictions (which said we should be closer to June 2008, not January 2009), and correcting for the current movement (lets assume CO knows what they're doing and don't need to retrogress dates, i.e. dates remain at January 2009 till of FY) -- what kind of demand destruction are we talking about?

3) Once we know demand destruction, we could perhaps extrapolate to see what kind of movement will happen in upcoming months.

4) Any predictions on how many months the next VB is going to move? I heard via the grape vine that dates may move by 8-10 months.

[helpful_leo]

Mechanical123s thesis sounds interesting!

Since I have never been a big number cruncher, I wonder what experts like Teddy have to say about this. The loss of demand does seem staggering.

[iyer]

After HR 3012 passes EB3-I will get a lion's share of visas from the EB3 allocation of 40K and will move fast till it catches up with EB3 ROW. EB2 even after HR 3012 passes will not become current anytime soon, EB2 ROW will see a priority date established as it will retrogress.

Logically if HR 3012 is passed, EB2 - I/C/ROW should be current for at least 1 bulletin, so that they could apply FIFO method accurately.

Last 2/3 months movement in EB2 I / C strongly indicates that many in this forum had analyzed PERM approval data wrongly. Also it indicates that many who got PERM approved, couldn't move forward with I-140 application or I-140 approval or couldn't hold on to their job. Even after this big forward movement, if CO is not finding many I-485 applications, he could make EB2 I/C current for the next month.

There is no law that stops him from moving the dates current and retrogress. The law only stops him from exceeding 140k visas in a year and 7% country limit (for now).

[arun_ramani]

The 18 months move from July 2007 to Jan 1, 2009 wouldn't generate more than 6~7k worth of cases. If they really want to generate meaningful demand then they have to move dates at least till the end of December, 2010. Anything less is just waste of each month's time !!

All this monthly demand of 2500 cases is wrong. My strong view is that EB2 I would become current by next fiscal and wouldn't still have enough demand and then spillover would starting going to EB3.

[injrav]

**As this thread is most popular,, I am posting my question here****.
Hi Friends
I am in typical scenario... My priority date is November 2008 with old employer.. I have approved 140 also with old employer... With this approved 140 I moved to new employer on March 2011..
I filed brand new labor on March 2011 and it has been approved.. Now I filed one new 140 on October 2011 .. We entered A# in order to recapture old priority date.

Now my date is current i.e. November 2008.. Then what are the best options available for me

option1: convert my new i-140 to premium processing,, so that I will get result in next 15 calendar days-
option2: do concurrent processing on January if it is allowed [with old and new perm approvals, old 140 approval, pending new 140]

please help me by sharing your experiences on this matter

Thanks

[arun_ramani]

The best advice would be to check with attorney. There is a good article that discusses similar scenario. You may want to check it out.

MurthyDotCom : Changes in Employer / Employment and Green Card Processing (http://www.murthy.com/news/n_chemgc.html)

**As this thread is most popular,, I am posting my question here****.
Hi Friends
I am in typical scenario... My priority date is November 2008 with old employer.. I have approved 140 also with old employer... With this approved 140 I moved to new employer on March 2011..
I filed brand new labor on March 2011 and it has been approved.. Now I filed one new 140 on October 2011 .. We entered A# in order to recapture old priority date.

Now my date is current i.e. November 2008.. Then what are the best options available for me

option1: convert my new i-140 to premium processing,, so that I will get result in next 15 calendar days-
option2: do concurrent processing on January if it is allowed [with old and new perm approvals, old 140 approval, pending new 140]

please help me by sharing your experiences on this matter

Thanks

[injrav]

thanks for quick reply

[mechanical13]

The 18 months move from July 2007 to Jan 1, 2009 wouldn't generate more than 6~7k worth of cases. If they really want to generate meaningful demand then they have to move dates at least till the end of December, 2010. Anything less is just waste of each month's time !!

All this monthly demand of 2500 cases is wrong. My strong view is that EB2 I would become current by next fiscal and wouldn't still have enough demand and then spillover would starting going to EB3.

Arun_ramani - is this a gut feel, or have you done calculations to substantiate the 6-7k number. At first sight, this translates to ~400 per month, which is low.

If one superimposes the health of the economy on the 485 filings trend, then one arrives at something like this (not precise, just extrapolation) for both I &C combined.

July 2007 to March 2008 - 1250 per month

April 2008 to September 2008 - 900 per month

October 2008 to December 2009 - 500 per month

January 2009 to December 2010 ~400 per month.

What this totals up till December 2008: 11,250 +5,400 + 6000 = 22,650.

If CO wants to create pipeline and also allow for additional demand destruction during 485 processing, then he may be inclined to move dates to late 2009 in the next two VBs.

Just my own thoughts. May be wishful thinking, but I REALLY think we need to tie the demand to the economy. Assuming that Indians & Chinese were filing their GCs away to glory when the entire economy was crumbling around them seems absolutely crazy.

Imagine, if that were in fact the case....what a great bullet Sen. Grassley has to shoot down HR 3012.

[gram123]

Folks, thank you all for making this thread public. My family has just begun the GC process and since we don't yet understand all the nuances, some of the posts here have been very helpful- we have at least begun asking the right questions now!

Some of you say there is a possibility that EB2 becomes current in a month or so. Is my understanding correct? If so, as someone who has a late PD, what should we do to prepare to apply for the 485? First of all, should we be prepared just in case?

Thanks!!

[gram123]

I forgot to mention we are actively involved in all the action items for H.R 3012!

[immigrant2007]

The 18 months move from July 2007 to Jan 1, 2009 wouldn't generate more than 6~7k worth of cases. If they really want to generate meaningful demand then they have to move dates at least till the end of December, 2010. Anything less is just waste of each month's time !!

All this monthly demand of 2500 cases is wrong. My strong view is that EB2 I would become current by next fiscal and wouldn't still have enough demand and then spillover would starting going to EB3.

Makes sense, that demand would be enough to consume 40k EB2 numbers for 2012. With some spill over eb2 could see 2011 as well, I no expert but the perm numbers don't add up unless everything is EB2

[arun_ramani]

6-7k number, I mentioned is only for India. The number is based on trends I see in the number of filings of 485 in tracking sites , % based on the conversion from PERM to 485 cases and considering the worst recession we went through in 2008.

In 2008/9 none of the consulting firms applied for H1 thereby affecting future demand, and in 2009 most of them didn't apply for labor certification as they were getting too many resumes to process. So the demand you would see till 2009 would only those would couldn't file by 2007 July and who have managed to stay here till this August (hats off to them!)

This is sort of complex analysis but would work, but if we make very simple assumptions then the numbers would be way of mark.

Arun_ramani - is this a gut feel, or have you done calculations to substantiate the 6-7k number. At first sight, this translates to ~400 per month, which is low.

If one superimposes the health of the economy on the 485 filings trend, then one arrives at something like this (not precise, just extrapolation) for both I &C combined.

July 2007 to March 2008 - 1250 per month

April 2008 to September 2008 - 900 per month

October 2008 to December 2009 - 500 per month

January 2009 to December 2010 ~400 per month.

What this totals up till December 2008: 11,250 +5,400 + 6000 = 22,650.

If CO wants to create pipeline and also allow for additional demand destruction during 485 processing, then he may be inclined to move dates to late 2009 in the next two VBs.

Just my own thoughts. May be wishful thinking, but I REALLY think we need to tie the demand to the economy. Assuming that Indians & Chinese were filing their GCs away to glory when the entire economy was crumbling around them seems absolutely crazy.

Imagine, if that were in fact the case....what a great bullet Sen. Grassley has to shoot down HR 3012.

[immigrant2007]

Arun_ramani - is this a gut feel, or have you done calculations to substantiate the 6-7k number. At first sight, this translates to ~400 per month, which is low.

If one superimposes the health of the economy on the 485 filings trend, then one arrives at something like this (not precise, just extrapolation) for both I &C combined.

July 2007 to March 2008 - 1250 per month

April 2008 to September 2008 - 900 per month

October 2008 to December 2009 - 500 per month

January 2009 to December 2010 ~400 per month.

What this totals up till December 2008: 11,250 +5,400 + 6000 = 22,650.

If CO wants to create pipeline and also allow for additional demand destruction during 485 processing, then he may be inclined to move dates to late 2009 in the next two VBs.

Just my own thoughts. May be wishful thinking, but I REALLY think we need to tie the demand to the economy. Assuming that Indians & Chinese were filing their GCs away to glory when the entire economy was crumbling around them seems absolutely crazy.

Imagine, if that were in fact the case....what a great bullet Sen. Grassley has to shoot down HR 3012.
Hi gurus shouldn't the numbers be based on perm approved for that year for 2008 onwards + any margin ? The numbers of perms from 2008 to 2012 are not that great ( unless me understanding of post perm I-140s is totally wrong, which includes direct I-140 plus multiplication factor) OR
It could be a conspiracy to diminish support for HR3012(by moving EB2 for few months could take away all eB2 in why to bother mode )

[iyer]

Few months ago, I made an analysis of PERM data approval and many in this forum shot down my analysis saying I should have also included 'Certified - Expired' into account. I still think 'certified - expired' should not be included and that is why many calculations have gone wrong.

I just finished reading the annual report on foreign labor certification (report about PERM certifications) for fiscal year 2009 and 2010. Per that report, PERM certification for Indians were: FY 2009 11387 and FY 2010 28930. For china: FY 2009 2,112 and FY 2010 4,052. The report indicates that FY 2010 certifications were more because they cleared majority of the backlogs. FY 2009 report indicates drop of 40% compared to FY 2008, and FY 2008 dropped by 40% as compared to FY 2007. This drop indicates US economic conditions.

The following are the items to be considered to filter the data for FY 2009 & FY 2010 - 40k in total certifications for India.

a) Priority date is determined based on the date when labor is filed and not when approved. This 40k approvals during those 2 years doesn't necessarily mean all priority dates fall within the same 2 year window. Especially, in FY 2010 report they have mentioned that certifications were higher because they cleared a lot of backlogs that were on hand at the beginning of that FY. Therefore, I assume of this 40k approvals, 20k must be having a priority date earlier than October 2008. That leaves us with a balance of 20k approvals. Applying the same logic, add another 5k for approvals in FY 2011, which could have a priority date between FY 2009 and FY 2010. This brings the balance to 25k.
b) Not all 25k approved certifications would have gone ahead with I-140 filings, due to bad economy. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 22.5k.
c) Not all 22.5k could have got I-140 approved. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 20k.
d) Assume another 10% dropout after I-140 approval stage due to bad economy. That brings the number to 18k.
e) Not all of this 18k would be eligible for EB2. Assuming a split ratio of 70/30 between EB2 and EB3, EB2 should be 13k and EB3 5k.
f) Adding dependent ratio of 2.2 for every applicant, EB2-I demand with priority dates between October 2008 and September 2010 should be 26k.

I am not considering any portability from EB3 to EB2 to affect the calculations. This is because majority of the guys who were eligible for porting from EB3 - EB2 would have done already. If someone had got approval under EB3 in the last 2 years, then it would be difficult for him to move to EB2 in such a short span of time. Similarly, not considering drop outs due to obtaining green card on the basis of other factors such as marriage to citizen, or potential duplicates because of working couples both filing, etc.

[kaushik999]

Totally Agreed

HR 3012 is the ONLY hope for EB3

And it will pass before CHRISTMAS

:)

[mechanical13]

Few months ago,....

Excellent approach and rationale.

A few points:

1) If you apply the same approach to FY 2007 and FY 2008, what numbers do we get? It appears like you have already done this analysis ( you mention 40 % reduction in volume), so it will be good to see what these numbers look like and how they tally with current movement.

2) We know for certain that I485 demand until July 2007 was in the 1500/month range, so between April 2007 and July 2007, we'll still have high numbers. There may be high attrition afterwards, so adjustments make sense.

3) What are you predictions for the next VB? Do you anticipate additional movement?

4) I think the PERM filings picked up significantly in 2010 and also in 2011. Perhaps all those who were unable to file in 2008 and 2009 ended up filing in 2010/2011.

5) Those working for consulting companies may be able to add additional perspective, but another factor that may have played out is what happened in 2007 -- everyone got EADs, and were no longer tied to desi consulting companies. This may have disincentivized many consulting companies from filing PERM /I-140 for their employees (to keep with the company longer). The bad economy/layoffs may have also played out.

6) The big question on everyone's mind I guess is whether dates will retrogress, or move ahead at the next VISA bulletin. It appears unlikely that the CO will make VB current ( 2010/2011 is very heavy I think), but there appears to be a likelihood that dates will move to late 2009.

[akshaya10001]

My earlier post

Oct 2011 I-485 inventory
EB1 - 14,072
EB2 ROW - 10,164
Total= 24,236

EB-1 & EB-2 & Spill over from EB-5 & 4 == 86 K Visas


As Per Oct'2011 Inventory Last 4 months EB1 average is 1300 cases for month
Highest no.of Eb2 Row cases is in Feb'2011 around 1000 cases
If we assume above as the expected volume to be filed in next 8 months
2300 * 8 = 18,400

so 86K - 18.5K - 24.5K = 43K

By above EB2 India & China may Get 43K Quota this year.

As per Inventory Before Aug'2007 Pending cases for India & China is 4,136 +8,865= ~13K. So USCIS need around 30K Application.

expecting EB2 India & China Demand per 2500for 2008 & 2009 is very high . Past Inventory for 2006 & 2007 shows few months have close /above or average of this rate.

For 2008 & 2009 India & china PERM approval are 30%-40% lower.
and earlier there is no porting at least 10% cases are porting so I-1485 Demand for 2008 & 2009 may be 40-50% lower compare to 2006 & 2007

Based on this guess estimate probably 1500 per month so 2008 & 2009 cases will be 24 months *1500= 36K.
Atleast another 12K Expected for 2007(Aug'07-Dec'07) ==> here 2006 & 2007 rate may continue.

48K expected filing before Jan'2010.

30K need to FY2012 Quota (Till Sept'2012)
10K need for 1Q of 2012 Quota (Oct'12 to Dec'12)
expect 10K pending cases always in the system.

Moving till Jan 1st 2010 may be realistic during 2012 Year.

[ImmiRam]

My sincere congratulations to all EB2 folks. PD are moving so fast even without HR 3012.
As far as EB3, i dont think there will be any significant changes in PD movement. Looking at the calculations posted here, we are down from 'unknown' number of years it was going to take to get GC to may be 10-15 years :) which is definitely an improvement!

[mechanical13]

Hi gurus shouldn't the numbers be based on perm approved for that year for 2008 onwards + any margin ? The numbers of perms from 2008 to 2012 are not that great ( unless me understanding of post perm I-140s is totally wrong, which includes direct I-140 plus multiplication factor) OR
It could be a conspiracy to diminish support for HR3012(by moving EB2 for few months could take away all eB2 in why to bother mode )

Yes, but there is an underlying assumption in doing so: We assume that all PERMs survive through the I-140 process. If we take the VB language literally, then CO is not creating pipeline - USCIS needs applications to avoid Visa # wastage. This would mean that 485 applications are significantly less than PERM filings.

A number of factors may reduce final 485 yield:

1) PERMS approved in 2008/2009 may actually have been applied in 2007/2008. This means that the a majority of these folks have already applied.

2) Job loss would have forced many to return to India/China or change jobs.

3) Due to layoffs within the company, employer may have not gone forward with I-140 application after PERM approval. Law states that I-140 cannot be applied for when the company has experienced layoffs in which American workers have been let go. The PERM window is 6 months, and the wait time between when a company has a layoff and can file for an I-140 for an alien beneficiary is 6 months.

4) Desi consulting companies would not want to process GC due to high attrition after 2007 fiasco.

5) Audits and more difficult I-140 approval process.

Please note that we are unknown territory here. In the absence of inventory data, everything is conjuncture.

We may be predicting movement till January 2010...and the CO may surprise us by retrogressing dates to 2007.

[mechanical13]

It could be a conspiracy to diminish support for HR3012(by moving EB2 for few months could take away all eB2 in why to bother mode )

There is no conspiracy my friend. The CO has bigger fish to fry than to play games with EB folks. The immigration system is broken....but I do not believe it is crooked.

[immigrant2007]

There is no conspiracy my friend. The CO has bigger fish to fry than to play games with EB folks. The immigration system is broken....but I do not believe it is crooked.

Can't believe you took that comment seriously, but I like your comment "....is broken but not crooked"........
BTW one of the things I am intersted in is the how good and genuine are the numbers in disclosure data....The number of certified cases between 2008 and 2011 are not that much for all categories combined. Wondering how long EB2 forward movement trend is going to extend (is it becoming current this year?)....atleast that way EB3 can start seeing some spill overs....Not getting a satisfactory reply on that

[immigrant2007]

Few months ago, I made an analysis of PERM data approval and many in this forum shot down my analysis saying I should have also included 'Certified - Expired' into account. I still think 'certified - expired' should not be included and that is why many calculations have gone wrong.

I just finished reading the annual report on foreign labor certification (report about PERM certifications) for fiscal year 2009 and 2010. Per that report, PERM certification for Indians were: FY 2009 11387 and FY 2010 28930. For china: FY 2009 2,112 and FY 2010 4,052. The report indicates that FY 2010 certifications were more because they cleared majority of the backlogs. FY 2009 report indicates drop of 40% compared to FY 2008, and FY 2008 dropped by 40% as compared to FY 2007. This drop indicates US economic conditions.

The following are the items to be considered to filter the data for FY 2009 & FY 2010 - 40k in total certifications for India.

a) Priority date is determined based on the date when labor is filed and not when approved. This 40k approvals during those 2 years doesn't necessarily mean all priority dates fall within the same 2 year window. Especially, in FY 2010 report they have mentioned that certifications were higher because they cleared a lot of backlogs that were on hand at the beginning of that FY. Therefore, I assume of this 40k approvals, 20k must be having a priority date earlier than October 2008. That leaves us with a balance of 20k approvals. Applying the same logic, add another 5k for approvals in FY 2011, which could have a priority date between FY 2009 and FY 2010. This brings the balance to 25k.
b) Not all 25k approved certifications would have gone ahead with I-140 filings, due to bad economy. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 22.5k.
c) Not all 22.5k could have got I-140 approved. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 20k.
d) Assume another 10% dropout after I-140 approval stage due to bad economy. That brings the number to 18k.
e) Not all of this 18k would be eligible for EB2. Assuming a split ratio of 70/30 between EB2 and EB3, EB2 should be 13k and EB3 5k.
f) Adding dependent ratio of 2.2 for every applicant, EB2-I demand with priority dates between October 2008 and September 2010 should be 26k.

I am not considering any portability from EB3 to EB2 to affect the calculations. This is because majority of the guys who were eligible for porting from EB3 - EB2 would have done already. If someone had got approval under EB3 in the last 2 years, then it would be difficult for him to move to EB2 in such a short span of time. Similarly, not considering drop outs due to obtaining green card on the basis of other factors such as marriage to citizen, or potential duplicates because of working couples both filing, etc.

What you have posted makes sense.....unless the number gurus come up with some points we are missing. Will try and think about your numbers calculation once get time towards evening or later in the day. One thing I would like to mention about port from EB3-EBs is that , it will still be a new PERM in majority of cases (as direct conversion is no childs play and would come in PERM number or the demand data due to old priority date).
But the calculation of gurus had been correct for long time they might get to the bottom of this sonner or later, can't ignore thier viewpoint.

[manchala]

The Bill H.R 3012 helps EB2 and more than that it will help EB3. This big movement in visal bullein for EB2 means you need to be ready that Visa Bulletin will not move for 2 more years until they clear all inventory. Remember after July 2007? How slow it moved? This will repeat. So any one after Jan 2009 should be worried abt it and participate in action items more rigorously. So come out of your dreams and work towards H.R 3012 even if you are EB2 after Jan 2009. Now they will have minimum of 50K applications which takes at least 2 years for them to forward visa bulletin. So from next bulletin expect retrogression and stalled movement for EB2 also.

[immigrant2007]

What you have posted makes sense.....unless the number gurus come up with some points we are missing. Will try and think about your numbers calculation once get time towards evening or later in the day. One thing I would like to mention about port from EB3-EBs is that , it will still be a new PERM in majority of cases (as direct conversion is no childs play and would come in PERM number or the demand data due to old priority date).
But the calculation of gurus had been correct for long time they might get to the bottom of this sonner or later, can't ignore thier viewpoint.

Going by Numbers if they approve 40000 EB2 GCs every year they should be approving approximately 10000 EB2 GCs every quarter (if demand exists) therwise they might create a demand of 20000-30000 cases and retrogess later on. Anyway the demand data of Feb MArch will give us a clear picture

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.

[rkgc]

Hi Teddy,
In the previous post you mentioned "For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month". This might be basic question, but are you saying since the Bulletin is for Jan 2012, even if all the paper works are ready we can apply only next month, i.e. you can't apply in December you have to wait until Jan 2012? if yes, if they retrogress the dates around 9th or 10th of Jan (i.e for Feb bulletin), do we have 10 days to apply or the whole month to apply? Thanks in advance & thanks for all your prediction.

Cheers,
RK

[canuck787]

got the receipts for AOS filed on Nov3rd, recieved on Nov4th.
says expect biometrics soon.
they mailed it to my home address in addition to lawyer.:)



Got my FP Notice(NSC):
Notice date :12/2/2011
appointment date: 12/29/2011

[mechanical13]

Going by Numbers if they approve 40000 EB2 GCs every year they should be approving approximately 10000 EB2 GCs every quarter (if demand exists) therwise they might create a demand of 20000-30000 cases and retrogess later on. Anyway the demand data of Feb MArch will give us a clear picture

Does anyone know why the Demand data for January has not been released?

Does the State Department skip publishing demand data once in a while ?

[mechanical13]

The Bill H.R 3012 helps EB2 and more than that it will help EB3. This big movement in visal bullein for EB2 means you need to be ready that Visa Bulletin will not move for 2 more years until they clear all inventory. Remember after July 2007? How slow it moved? This will repeat. So any one after Jan 2009 should be worried abt it and participate in action items more rigorously. So come out of your dreams and work towards H.R 3012 even if you are EB2 after Jan 2009. Now they will have minimum of 50K applications which takes at least 2 years for them to forward visa bulletin. So from next bulletin expect retrogression and stalled movement for EB2 also.

Completely Agree. I am diligently doing all the action items.

Even created a flyer a few days back.

[sunilps03]

I received my receipts today (6 in total) but when I enter receipt number in https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/portfolioCustomerAdd.do this site, it says the number is invalid. I tried all 6 numbers. My receipt numbers start with LIN***. It's filed in Nebraska Service Center.

Has any one faced this issue? Do we need to wait for more days to see the case status online?

I used to track I140 via above website. Is there different website to track 485 ? Let me know.

RD:12/1
ND : 12/6
Recived via snail mail : 12/10.

[rxd9507IV]

Hi Teddy,
In the previous post you mentioned "For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month". This might be basic question, but are you saying since the Bulletin is for Jan 2012, even if all the paper works are ready we can apply only next month, i.e. you can't apply in December you have to wait until Jan 2012? if yes, if they retrogress the dates around 9th or 10th of Jan (i.e for Feb bulletin), do we have 10 days to apply or the whole month to apply? Thanks in advance & thanks for all your prediction.

Cheers,
RK

Visa bulletin is for next month.

Jan bulletin applies from Jan1. In your hypothetical case of Feb bulletin (published on Jan second week) retrogress you can still apply till Jan end.

Having said that, Apply ASAP, hopefully on first date itself.

[anemmani]

Got my I485/I131 and I765 receipt notices in USPS mail today (12/10).

Receipt date: 12/02/2011
Notice date: 12/06/2011
Texas Service Center

[rkgc]

Thanks rxd9507IV!!

[rkgc]

Hi rxd9507IV,
Sooner the better makes sense, but any reason you said first day itself? please give me some reasons, so I can nudge the lawyer and give the same reason.

Thanks,
Rami

[snathan]

While 100% supporting for HR 3012,These Spill over rules must be changed.
All spill over unused visas from EB1 or EB5 should go over to general pool and go to FIRST come First basis in EB categories so that EB3 also moves forward like EB2 now.
Hope many EB3 folks agree with me.

Yes, your logic makes sense...but the GC is designed to help the country and not to benefit the individual. From the US govt., Lawmakers and USCIS point of view the EB2 is superior to EB3 and benefits the country most.

But thing are not always straight forward and we all know the ground reality is different. So it’s going to be a herculean task if you try to change the spillover rule and needs a new legislation. So the only hope is H.R.3012.

[Pappu_Pager]

While 100% supporting for HR 3012,These Spill over rules must be changed.
All spill over unused visas from EB1 or EB5 should go over to general pool and go to FIRST come First basis in EB categories so that EB3 also moves forward like EB2 now.
Hope many EB3 folks agree with me.

You are talking in the language, the ROWers are talking now for HR3012 .. I am EB3 but wouldnt oppose spill-over rule, just because EB-I is getting benefited first. Rather, I would work on HR3012 and get support from EB-2 friends .. ROWers, EB2-I and EB3-I -- we all are in same boat, if we know -- i.e. we all are immigrants ... If we cannot stick together, if we fight for rules helping others just bcoz we cannot see their progress compared to us - would lead all of us nowhere .. And, people like Grassley would win by Divide and Rule ..

Wish HR3012 would pass ..

[Pappu_Pager]

Yes, but there is an underlying assumption in doing so: We assume that all PERMs survive through the I-140 process. If we take the VB language literally, then CO is not creating pipeline - USCIS needs applications to avoid Visa # wastage. This would mean that 485 applications are significantly less than PERM filings.

A number of factors may reduce final 485 yield:

1) PERMS approved in 2008/2009 may actually have been applied in 2007/2008. This means that the a majority of these folks have already applied.

2) Job loss would have forced many to return to India/China or change jobs.

3) Due to layoffs within the company, employer may have not gone forward with I-140 application after PERM approval. Law states that I-140 cannot be applied for when the company has experienced layoffs in which American workers have been let go. The PERM window is 6 months, and the wait time between when a company has a layoff and can file for an I-140 for an alien beneficiary is 6 months.

4) Desi consulting companies would not want to process GC due to high attrition after 2007 fiasco.

5) Audits and more difficult I-140 approval process.

Please note that we are unknown territory here. In the absence of inventory data, everything is conjuncture.

We may be predicting movement till January 2010...and the CO may surprise us by retrogressing dates to 2007.

Very very true .. all points make sense ..

It is an ambigious process .. When USCIS came out with Inventory data ... it meant to do so, to guide people in predicting GC movement .. I think, it did nothing much of the help .. Uncertainty still continues ..

[Pappu_Pager]

Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.

Makes sense Teddy ... USCIS also mentions that it takes few months to give the visa no -from the actual date of filing 485 .. so They might be anticipating that if HR3012 passes after 2 months or so, and if they try to move forward after that .. there might less application than the visa no available for the year .. so some visa no might go waste .. So, they might be planning to move forward, in advance .. Not sure, if that would be a consideration, though .. just throwing from my positive mind ..

[rxd9507IV]

Hi rxd9507IV,
Sooner the better makes sense, but any reason you said first day itself? please give me some reasons, so I can nudge the lawyer and give the same reason.

Thanks,
Rami

No specific reason other than this " there is no downside of applying on first but there might be some upside."

[immigrant2007]

Very very true .. all points make sense ..

It is an ambigious process .. When USCIS came out with Inventory data ... it meant to do so, to guide people in predicting GC movement .. I think, it did nothing much of the help .. Uncertainty still continues ..

Does anyone know why the Demand data for January has not been released?

Does the State Department skip publishing demand data once in a while ?

Our wish list
1) GCs for all in 1 year :)
2) HR 3012 earliest this month or next month
3) Demand Data and Pending Inventory :)

[bpratap]

Guys,

For the greater interest of the community. Please refrain from bashing each other. like EB2, EB3, ROW etc.

IV is working for ALL. There is lots of visibility for this website and forum over the internet. silly personal arguments will be making us look BAD. and that's what many special interest groups are trying to portray us. so please refrain from bashing each other in the greater interest of the community.

[mechanical13]

Guys,

For the greater interest of the community. Please refrain from bashing each other. like EB2, EB3, ROW etc.

IV is working for ALL. There is lots of visibility for this website and forum over the internet. silly personal arguments will be making us look BAD. and that's what many special interest groups are trying to portray us. so please refrain from bashing each other in the greater interest of the community.

100 % agree with you.

Differences between ROW and EB I/C has already fractured the community. IV is not working for any particular group. IV is working for the entire EB community.

With HR 3012, IV is trying to level the playing field within the EB community so we can all group together and solve the bigger issues at hand.

Guys - Lets all come together and work together to support HR 3012. In the long run, it the best and most permanent solution for the perennial backlog.

[puding]

Thanks for your analysis Teddy. One question, if people are indeed porting from EB3 to EB2, why the dates for EB3 not moving ahead? On the same lines, if USCIS is building the pipeline in preparation of HR 3012, why they are not building the pipeline for EB3? Appreciate your efforts...

[haramihokie]

It is going to be difficult to find out about the impact of porting till we see the updated inventory numbers - anyone has idea why they cannot do more frequent releases ?

[mechanical13]

Thanks for your analysis Teddy. One question, if people are indeed porting from EB3 to EB2, why the dates for EB3 not moving ahead? On the same lines, if USCIS is building the pipeline in preparation of HR 3012, why they are not building the pipeline for EB3? Appreciate your efforts...

Even if CO is in fact building inventory in anticipation of HR 3012, they wouldn't be moving EB3. This is because there are already sufficient number of adjudicated cases in the system from the July 2007 event. CO wouldn't move dates for EB3 for at least 2 years after HR 3012 is passed.

[ImmiRam]

Guys,

For the greater interest of the community. Please refrain from bashing each other. like EB2, EB3, ROW etc.

IV is working for ALL. There is lots of visibility for this website and forum over the internet. silly personal arguments will be making us look BAD. and that's what many special interest groups are trying to portray us. so please refrain from bashing each other in the greater interest of the community.

Agree 100%. I believe in HR 3012. I have donated for the cause and have sent letters to senators. I even took a 1/2 day off to meet one of the senator when he was visiting near by and requested his support. So, please do not suspect the dedication to work for the community.
What I do not understand is that why addressing spill over is such a touchy subject ? Isn't the purpose here to make it 'fair' for everyone ? Isn't this a forum to address it? After 3012, i suspect there will be nothing for a long long time. So without spill over change, it will again be perennial wait for some part of the community. I understand it will be hard to change spill over rule but so was getting HR 3012! So, I hope to have some constructive discussion here about it.
I LOVE WHAT IV IS DOING and It will always have my support.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for your analysis Teddy. One question, if people are indeed porting from EB3 to EB2, why the dates for EB3 not moving ahead? On the same lines, if USCIS is building the pipeline in preparation of HR 3012, why they are not building the pipeline for EB3? Appreciate your efforts...

Porting is only ~ 3K per annum whereas EB3-I inventory is 55-60K range. Those porting are mostly after 2002 that is why the impact of porting is not felt on the EB3-I date movement.

[namjoshi]

Hi Teddy and everyone

With EB2-India PD movement to Jan 2009, lets assume we do our best to file for i485 AOS next month (my PD is Dec 2008)

When per predictions, will Dec. 2008 PD pool get the actual GC approved ?
a) w/o HR3012

b) with HR 3012 approved logically in next couple months ?

Thank you .

[puding]

Porting is only ~ 3K per annum whereas EB3-I inventory is 55-60K range. Those porting are mostly after 2002 that is why the impact of porting is not felt on the EB3-I date movement.

Apprecaite your reply.

[PrinceVA]

Guus,

I got my EAD and also notice that 765 approved, waiting for Travel Document now... yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh.

I applied in October, Finger printing in November and got EAD in December. Any calculation when will be getting that Green Flashy Card. I missed to apply in 2007 and applied my 485 in October.

thanx,

[DudefromBombay]

Guus,

I got my EAD and also notice that 765 approved, waiting for Travel Document now... yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh.

I applied in October, Finger printing in November and got EAD in December. Any calculation when will be getting that Green Flashy Card. I missed to apply in 2007 and applied my 485 in October.

thanx,
Hey PrinceVA.

Many Congratulations. Which Service Center did you apply? NSC or TSC?

[pardesibabu]

Guys,

I have a PD of April 2010 under EB-2. Do you think there is a chance to get greened by end of 2012?

Thanks

[smuggymba]

Guys,

I have a PD of April 2010 under EB-2. Do you think there is a chance to get greened by end of 2012?

Thanks

When you're not current, you want to be current.

Whe you're current, you ask about EAD

When you know you will get EAD, you talk about GC.

10 months from now - you'll start a thread about citizenship. Take it easy man. You're current and you should enjoy your EAD. Eventually you'll get the GC.

[pardesibabu]

I hear you man. But I'm not current yet. I promise I will stop worrying after getting an EAD.

[smuggymba]

I hear you man. But I'm not current yet. I promise I will stop worrying after getting an EAD.

my bad..i though ur PD was Apr 2008. Mine is Marh 2010..so we're close and worrying won't help. Take it easy. Unless 3012 passes, we won't be greened in 2012...not even EAD I guess.

[PrinceVA]

Hey PrinceVA.

Many Congratulations. Which Service Center did you apply? NSC or TSC?

How to tell you. My no starts from SRC, so it is Texas ????

[pardesibabu]

With the movement in Jan bulletin and relatively low demand for GC during 2009, can we expect PD to move to May-June 2010 by end of 2012 for EB2-I?