EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[anu_t]

Pls re read Teddy's post. At the end of Sept 2013 EB3 will move to 2004 PD that is what he is saying. That will be a great thing for so many EB3 filers.

[pappu]

Pls re read Teddy's post. At the end of Sept 2013 EB3 will move to 2004 PD that is what he is saying. That will be a great thing for so many EB3 filers.

All this could be coupled with fast forward movement of dates at a certain time (like what we saw for EB2 in the recent past that IV proposed) so that people can file I485 in EB3 that have not filed yet. So do not waste time on minor details now. Look at the big picture and everything will fall into place once HR3012 passes. We are working very hard. Please take part in the action item.

[sagar8880]

Thanks Pappu

[flthere]

Friends a lot of people have questions how Eb3-I would move if HR 3012 passes.

Firstly EB3 is unique in the sense that India is severely backlogged compared to any other country. If HR 3012 were to become effective by Oct 2012, Eb3-I would get 25K visas in year one and the PD for EB3-I at the end of Sep 2013 will be closwe to mid 2004.

This kind of allocation for Eb3-I is almost equal to 10 years of allocation. It will take 3 years for EB3-I date to cath up with Eb3 ROW.

Without HR 3012 the situation is very bad by Sep 2012 the dates will range between 01-Oct-2012 to 15-Oct 2002.

also a lot of people from Nov 2002 and Dec 2002 are feeling that thye dates are so close but yet so far. These 2 months have very heavy inventory it will take 6 months or even more especially for these 2 months to clear out.

Any one in feb 2003 or beyound should plan to port by all means.

Let us all hope that HR 3012 becomes reality it will be a great relief.

Thanks Teddy for your time. A quick question though. You just said EB3-India will get 25,000 visas a year, say, starting from next year until it catches up. I just looked at the I485 inventory, and EB3-India has 49,445 cases pending until July/August 2007. That means it should take only 2 yrs to reach July 2007, isn't it ?

[rbusgc]

Friends here is how EB2-I will be impacted by HR 3012.

Unlike EB3, for EB2 India and China go and in hand. Typically China inventory for every month is equal to India.

If HR 3012 were to pass EB2 I/C combined will get ~ 20K extra visas for the year.

If in the upcoming year HR 3012 does not pass we would be looking at just 10-12K SOFAD the reason being EB2 ROW has a decent backlog of -8K which will need to be satisfied and EB1 will not yield much as EB1C usage is going higher and impact of Kazarian memo is dissapearing. With this we wilol barely cross 2007 and move to early 2008.

In 2012 we saw ~ 22K SOFAD and in 2011 we saw ~ 34K SOFAD. So essentially if HR 3012 passes we can expect allocation similar to these years and dates for EB2 as a whole can move to early 2009.

PS - Friends I cannot edit the header of the thread anymore in order to maintain the thread as login free, so I will write out details more frequently via a new post.

Hi Teddy,

Quick Question... if HR 3012 is passed shouldn't the number of visa's available for EB2 in a year be MINIMUM of 140,000 * 0.286 = 40,040 (using the logic of 28.6 percentage of 140,000)... and a MAXIMUM of 40,040 + Any spill over.. considering the fact that India and China's retrogression is earlier than ROW, most of these visas should be allocated to I&C .. hence a better movement than what you predicted above. Considering the 15% reserve for ROW will only reduce the EB2 Minimum by 6000 ...which means EB2 I&C will still have 34,000 visas .. so in any case the movement of EB2 should be better than what you mentioned above.

Not sure if I am making any wrong assumption..please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks,

RB

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends With regards all questions for EB3 Let me clarify.

- Only for the first year will EB3-I get 25K visas because the reason for that is even after getting that kind of allocation the EB3-I date will not come close to China's 22nd Sep 05.

- Once EB3-I catches up with China and ROW things will slow down considerably. As of now EB3-ROW just moves 2 weeks per VB. This is because once EB3-I catches with others the dates catch up.

- I believe in a year's time the PD will reach Mid 2004 and in another year reaching Sep - Oct 2005 with reduced allocation because now contention with other countries starts is possible.

- In about 3 years all countries in EB3 will possibly have the same PD. After this it will be 2 weeks per VB kind of movement.

So yes for people with PD for mid - late 2005 GC will come by very quickly for the rest beyond everyone in EB3 will be equal.

For folks with EB3 PD beyond Jul 2007 the best thing is to use your EB3 PD as a place holder and try for porting. An Eb3 PD of 2010 as Sagar asked is more than 10 years away even with HR 3012, without HR 3012 it maybe 20 plus years away. Remember to port your EB3 PD your I140 should be approved.

There a lot of factors that affect the EB3 inventory people post 2005 are the ones who are porting more. Let’s wait and see how things go by to have an accurate perspective we should focus just 1 year at a time as every year has its own unique factors. Something exciting like Eb3 intake happening is also possible if Eb3 ROW reaches closer to Jul 2007 in about 3 years but as of now that is far.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

Quick Question... if HR 3012 is passed shouldn't the number of visa's available for EB2 in a year be MINIMUM of 140,000 * 0.286 = 40,040 (using the logic of 28.6 percentage of 140,000)... and a MAXIMUM of 40,040 + Any spill over.. considering the fact that India and China's retrogression is earlier than ROW, most of these visas should be allocated to I&C .. hence a better movement than what you predicted above. Considering the 15% reserve for ROW will only reduce the EB2 Minimum by 6000 ...which means EB2 I&C will still have 34,000 visas .. so in any case the movement of EB2 should be better than what you mentioned above.

Not sure if I am making any wrong assumption..please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks,

RB

RB you make a valid point. Yes with 15% for ROW it should be 34K. However ROW also seems to have a backlog which is in the 6-8K range and part of it may still be older PD's. Assuming EB1 does not give any SOFAD and EB5 gives 5K, 40K is an absolute possibility and with this the dates can move to mid 2009. There are several issues with the Eb2 inventory itself let’s see what the next inventory has to say.

[snsharda]

Friends With regards all questions for EB3 Let me clarify.

- Only for the first year will EB3-I get 25K visas because the reason for that is even after getting that kind of allocation the EB3-I date will not come close to China's 22nd Sep 05.


I thought 85% will be in the un-reserved Quota with FIFO method. Since India has oldest PDs, 85% would go to India in the first year. Meaning 33k visa should be allocated in first year to EB3-I.

Am i missing something?

[TeddyKoochu]

I thought 85% will be in the un-reserved Quota with FIFO method. Since India has oldest PDs, 85% would go to India in the first year. Meaning 33k visa should be allocated in first year to EB3-I.

Am i missing something?

China, Mexico and Philippines will also get visas over and above the 15% reserved for ROW. Mexico and Philippines have over the years crossed the 2.8K limit pretty significantly because their Eb1 and Eb2 usage is lower.

[Chandini]

Please correct if i am wrong. This is my understanding of the H R 3012 BILL:

1) If H R 3012 PASSES the Start date for that bill is OCT 2011. They have to give visas from last year. 25 K visas last year. from 2011.

2) After passing the H R 3012 the bill is kept under the USCIS Federal Register for 1 month before it becomes active. (visas are being issued)

3) New additions on the bill made by Senator Grassley. The bill has to go back to the house and then to the Senate.

Are the above rules correct ?????? Let me know

[neel_gump]

Please correct if i am wrong. This is my understanding of the H R 3012 BILL:

1) If H R 3012 PASSES the Start date for that bill is OCT 2011. They have to give visas from last year. 25 K visas last year. from 2011.

2) After passing the H R 3012 the bill is kept under the USCIS Federal Register for 1 month before it becomes active. (visas are being issued)

3) New additions on the bill made by Senator Grassley. The bill has to go back to the house and then to the Senate.

Are the above rules correct ?????? Let me know

Here is the link to the amendment PDF...
http://immigrationlegalnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/hr-3012-grassley-amendment-june-2012.pdf

Here is what I understood from that doc
FB - no change
EB - change 7% to 15%
Eliminate DV lottery
Tighten H1 and L1 program

Am I missing something here...I am guessing it is a old one from Dec 2011...

[neel_gump]

Here is the link to the amendment PDF...
http://immigrationlegalnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/hr-3012-grassley-amendment-june-2012.pdf

Here is what I understood from that doc
FB - no change
EB - change 7% to 15%
Eliminate DV lottery
Tighten H1 and L1 program

Am I missing something here...I am guessing it is a old one from Dec 2011...

Here is the new amendment text...

Purpose: To amend section 212(n) and 214(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act to modify
the procedures relating to the investigation of employers' compliance with applicable
immigration laws.

H. R. 3012

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the
per-country numerical limitation for employment-based
immigrants, to increase the per-country numerical limitation for
family-sponsored immigrants, and for other purposes.


Referred to the Committee on _____________ and ordered to be
printed

Ordered to lie on the table and to be printed

AMENDMENT INTENDED TO BE PROPOSED BY MR. GRASSLEY

Viz:

On page 6, after line 16, add the following:

SEC. 3. LABOR CONDITION APPLICATION.

(a) Application Review Requirements.—Section 212(n)(1) of the Immigration and Nationality
Act (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(1)) is amended, in the undesignated matter at the end—

(1) by inserting “and through the Department of Labor’s website, without charge.” after
“D.C.”;

(2) by striking “only for completeness” and inserting “for completeness, clear indicators
of fraud or misrepresentation of material fact,”;

(3) by striking “or obviously inaccurate” and inserting “, presents clear indicators of fraud
or misrepresentation of material fact, or is obviously inaccurate”; and

(4) by adding at the end the following: “If the Secretary’s review of an application
identifies clear indicators of fraud or misrepresentation of material fact, the Secretary may
conduct an investigation and hearing in accordance with paragraph (2).”.

(b) Initiation of Investigations.—Section 212(n)(2)(G) of the Immigration and Nationality Act
(8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(G)) is amended—

(1) in clause (i), by striking “In the case of an investigation” and all that follows;

(2) in clause (ii), by striking “and whose identity” and all that follows through “failure or
failures.” and inserting “the Secretary of Labor may conduct an investigation into the
employer’s compliance with the requirements of this subsection.”;

(3) in clause (iii), by striking the last sentence;

(4) by striking clauses (iv) and (v);

(5) by redesignating clauses (vi), (vii), and (viii) as clauses (iv), (v), and (vi),
respectively;

(6) in clause (iv), as redesignated, by striking “meet a condition described in clause (ii)”
and inserting “comply with the requirements under this subsection”;

(7) by amending clause (v), as redesignated, to read as follows:

“(v) The Secretary of Labor shall provide notice to an employer of the intent to conduct
an investigation. The notice shall be provided in such a manner, and shall contain sufficient
detail, to permit the employer to respond to the allegations before an investigation is
commenced. The Secretary is not required to comply with this clause if the Secretary
determines that such compliance would interfere with an effort by the Secretary to
investigate or secure compliance by the employer with the requirements of this subsection.
A determination by the Secretary under this clause shall not be subject to judicial review.”;

(8) in clause (vi), as redesignated, by striking “An investigation” and all that follows
through “the determination.” and inserting “If the Secretary of Labor, after an investigation
under clause (i) or (ii), determines that a reasonable basis exists to make a finding that the
employer has failed to comply with the requirements under this subsection, the Secretary
shall provide interested parties with notice of such determination and an opportunity for a
hearing in accordance with section 556 of title 5, United States Code, not later than 60 days
after the date of such determination.”; and

(9) by adding at the end the following:

“(vii) If the Secretary of Labor, after a hearing, finds that the employer has violated a
requirement under this subsection, the Secretary shall impose a penalty pursuant to
subparagraph (C).”.

(c) General Modification of Procedures for Investigation and Disposition.—Section
212(n)(2)(A) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(A)) is amended—

(1) by striking “(A) Subject” and inserting the following:

“(A)(i) Subject”;

(2) by striking the last sentence; and

(3) by adding at the end the following:

“(ii)(I) Upon the receipt of a complaint under clause (i), the Secretary may initiate an
investigation to determine if such a failure or misrepresentation has occurred.

“(II) The Secretary may conduct—

“(aa) surveys of the degree to which employers comply with the requirements of this
subsection; and

“(III) The Secretary—

“(aa) subject to the limitation in subsection (IV), may conduct annual compliance
audits of any employer that employs H–1B nonimmigrants during the applicable
calendar year;

“(bb) subject to the limitation in subsection (IV), shall conduct annual compliance
audits of each employer with more than 100 full-time equivalent employees who are
employed in the United States if more than 15 percent of the number of such full-time
employees are H–1B nonimmigrants; and

“(cc) make available to the public an executive summary or report describing the
general findings of the audits carried out pursuant to this subclause.”.

(IV) In the event an employer is subject to any annual compliance audit in which
there was no finding of a willful failure to meet a condition under 8 U.S.C.
1182(n)(2)(C)(ii), no further annual compliance audit shall be conducted with respect
to that employer for a period of at least 4 years, absent evidence of misrepresentation
or fraud.

[TeddyKoochu]

Please correct if i am wrong. This is my understanding of the H R 3012 BILL:

1) If H R 3012 PASSES the Start date for that bill is OCT 2011. They have to give visas from last year. 25 K visas last year. from 2011.

2) After passing the H R 3012 the bill is kept under the USCIS Federal Register for 1 month before it becomes active. (visas are being issued)

3) New additions on the bill made by Senator Grassley. The bill has to go back to the house and then to the Senate.

Are the above rules correct ?????? Let me know

With regards point # 1 you are correct about the dates. However visas once assigned cannot be recovered back. So let’s see how they handle it or change the years to the upcoming year when the implementation may start.

[flthere]

What is the Phase-in period of 3 yrs that Nancy Pelosi got into HR 3012 ?

[snsharda]

China, Mexico and Philippines will also get visas over and above the 15% reserved for ROW. Mexico and Philippines have over the years crossed the 2.8K limit pretty significantly because their Eb1 and Eb2 usage is lower.

Got it. Thanks.

[Rb_newsletter]

If HR 3012 were to become effective by Oct 2012, Eb3-I would get 25K visas in year one

Where did you get this number 25K? Or how did you arrive this number?

[immigrant0809]

I thought 85% will be in the un-reserved Quota with FIFO method. Since India has oldest PDs, 85% would go to India in the first year. Meaning 33k visa should be allocated in first year to EB3-I.

Am i missing something?
25k is not the correct number. Neither is 33k.

15% of visas are reserved for Countries other than China and India, so in Year One, ROW, Mexico and Philippines would only have 6,006 visas between them. Within those Reserved numbers, no single Country can use more than 25% (1,502).

Of the 85% Unreserved visas (34,034), no single Country can use more than 85% (28,929).

This means EB3-I would be able to use a maximum of 28,929 visas in Year One and EB3-C could use 5,105 visas.

EB3-C would not use 5,105 visas before reaching the Cut Off Date for EB3-Philippines, so both Countries start using the remainder based on FIFO.

If the Cut off Dates reached those of EB3-M and EB3-ROW, then all Countries would start using any remaining Unreserved Visas as FIFO.

Under no circumstances would EB3-I be able to exceed 85% of the Unreserved Visas.

In years two and three, EB3-I limit would be 85% of the 90% Unreserved visas. 90% equals 36,034 and 85% is 30,631.

EB3-C would be entitled to 5,405 visas. Reserved visas for M, P and ROW would be 4,004 visas.

Since EB3-C would have the same Cut Off Date as M, P and ROW, then C, M, P and ROW would effectively share 9,409 between them. That would be FIFO except that M, P and ROW would have to use at least 4,004 visas, which they would.

[katta]

I have read the proposed amendments to HR3012 at the link provided by @neel_gump. The amendment say an increase from 7% to 15% per country limit but never says anything about elimination of per country quota.
Is my understanding incorrect?

[newdif]

Thanks,Immigrant0809! Does the same circumstances apply to Eb2-C? When do you think I will get my green card according to my priority date if HR 3012 passed? Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Where did you get this number 25K? Or how did you arrive this number?

25k is not the correct number. Neither is 33k.

15% of visas are reserved for Countries other than China and India, so in Year One, ROW, Mexico and Philippines would only have 6,006 visas between them. Within those Reserved numbers, no single Country can use more than 25% (1,502).

Of the 85% Unreserved visas (34,034), no single Country can use more than 85% (28,929).

This means EB3-I would be able to use a maximum of 28,929 visas in Year One and EB3-C could use 5,105 visas.

EB3-C would not use 5,105 visas before reaching the Cut Off Date for EB3-Philippines, so both Countries start using the remainder based on FIFO.

If the Cut off Dates reached those of EB3-M and EB3-ROW, then all Countries would start using any remaining Unreserved Visas as FIFO.

Under no circumstances would EB3-I be able to exceed 85% of the Unreserved Visas.

In years two and three, EB3-I limit would be 85% of the 90% Unreserved visas. 90% equals 36,034 and 85% is 30,631.

EB3-C would be entitled to 5,405 visas. Reserved visas for M, P and ROW would be 4,004 visas.

Since EB3-C would have the same Cut Off Date as M, P and ROW, then C, M, P and ROW would effectively share 9,409 between them. That would be FIFO except that M, P and ROW would have to use at least 4,004 visas, which they would.

As of now Mexico & Philippines are not part of ROW because their usage EB + FB exceeds 7%. As of now Mexico & Philippines use 7-8 K visas amongst themselves for EB3 because their EB1 and EB2 usage is lower.

The 15% allocation is for ROW and those ~ 6000 visas will determine a cutoff point for Mexico & Philippines as well. So if ROW for example moves 3 months then M & P cannot cross that so possibly Mexico & Philippines may use 5-6K and China which is behind may use 3 -4 K. This makes the usage by non Indian countries to be 6K (ROW) + 5-6K (M&P) + 3-4K (China) ~ 15K. Therefore I feel India may get 25K.
The important point is that China, Mexico & Philippines are not going to be part of the 15%, however each of them will not get 15% either because that cutoff will be set it by ROW. If it is published somewhere that after 15% allocation numbers within a category will go to the most retrogressed country then India could well get 34K as well. If someone can point to the exact published provision that will help to understand correctly.
Let’s discuss further please feel free to break this model apart.

[immigrant0809]

As of now Mexico & Philippines are not part of ROW because their usage EB + FB exceeds 7%. As of now Mexico & Philippines use 7-8 K visas amongst themselves for EB3 because their EB1 and EB2 usage is lower.

The 15% allocation is for ROW and those ~ 6000 visas will determine a cutoff point for Mexico & Philippines as well. So if ROW for example moves 3 months then M & P cannot cross that so possibly Mexico & Philippines may use 5-6K and China which is behind may use 3 -4 K. This makes the usage by non Indian countries to be 6K (ROW) + 5-6K (M&P) + 3-4K (China) ~ 15K. Therefore I feel India may get 25K.
The important point is that China, Mexico & Philippines are not going to be part of the 15%, however each of them will not get 15% either because that cutoff will be set it by ROW. If it is published somewhere that after 15% allocation numbers within a category will go to the most retrogressed country then India could well get 34K as well. If someone can point to the exact published provision that will help to understand correctly.
Let’s discuss further please feel free to break this model apart.Teddy,

I respectfully disagree with your point that Mexico and Philippines are not part of the numbers allotted as Reserved visas.

The Bill says the following (for Year One)

(A) For fiscal year 2012, 15 percent of the immigrant visas made available under each of paragraphs (2) and (3) of section 203(b) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)) shall be allotted to immigrants who are natives of a foreign state or dependent area that was not one of the TWO states with the largest aggregate numbers of natives obtaining immigrant visas during fiscal year 2010 under such paragraphs.

The two Countries with the highest aggregate number across EB2 and EB3 in FY2010 were India and China, so the Reserved visas are for use by ALL OTHER Countries i.e. Mexico, Philippines and ROW.

Within that Reserved number, no single Country (most likely Philippines in EB3) can use more than 25%. From the Bill

A) RESERVED VISAS.—With respect to the visas reserved under each of subparagraphs (A) through (C) of paragraph (1), the number of such visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area in the appropriate fiscal year may not exceed 25 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 per cent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas.

So, the maximum that can be used by a single Country under the Reserved numbers is 1,502 in Year One and 1,001 in each of Years Two and Three. That may be possible for EB3-Philippines in Year One (even within the Worldwide Cut Off Date Movement), which would reduce the numbers available to Mexico and ROW to 4,504 visas.

Finally, for Unreserved Visas, no single Country may use more than 85% of the number available. From the Bill

(B) UNRESERVED VISAS.—With respect to the immigrant visas made available under each of paragraphs (2) and (3) of section 203(b) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)) and not reserved under paragraph (1), for each of fiscal years 2012, 2013, and 2014, not more than 85 per-cent shall be allotted to immigrants who are natives of any single foreign state.

That means China would receive not less than 15% of the Unreserved visa, since India would not be able to use more than 85%.

In reality, EB2 dates would stay virtually in step for EB2-IC and EB3-C would join all other Countries than India with the same Worldwide Cut Off Date fairly quickly.

As you say, no Country can have a Cut Off Date later than the Worldwide Cut Off Date, but I addressed that in my previous post.

It means that if EB3-C reaches the another Country's Cut Off Date or the Worldwide Cut Off Date before using the minimum 15% of the Unreserved visas allotted to them, then FIFO would prevail to distribute them amongst the relevant Countries, since EB3-India would reach the 85% limit for Unreserved visas to a single Country.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I respectfully disagree with your point that Mexico and Philippines are not part of the numbers allotted as Reserved visas.

The Bill says the following (for Year One)



The two Countries with the highest aggregate number across EB2 and EB3 in FY2010 were India and China, so the Reserved visas are for use by ALL OTHER Countries i.e. Mexico, Philippines and ROW.

Within that Reserved number, no single Country (most likely Philippines in EB3) can use more than 25%. From the Bill



So, the maximum that can be used by a single Country under the Reserved numbers is 1,502 in Year One and 1,001 in each of Years Two and Three. That may be possible for EB3-Philippines in Year One (even within the Worldwide Cut Off Date Movement), which would reduce the numbers available to Mexico and ROW to 4,504 visas.

Finally, for Unreserved Visas, no single Country may use more than 85% of the number available. From the Bill



That means China would receive not less than 15% of the Unreserved visa, since India would not be able to use more than 85%.

In reality, EB2 dates would stay virtually in step for EB2-IC and EB3-C would join all other Countries than India with the same Worldwide Cut Off Date fairly quickly.

As you say, no Country can have a Cut Off Date later than the Worldwide Cut Off Date, but I addressed that in my previous post.

It means that if EB3-C reaches the another Country's Cut Off Date or the Worldwide Cut Off Date before using the minimum 15% of the Unreserved visas allotted to them, then FIFO would prevail to distribute them amongst the relevant Countries, since EB3-India would reach the 85% limit for Unreserved visas to a single Country.

Thanks for your very thorough post and posting all sections and sub-sections. I stand corrected and Iam in agreement with your interpretation. Greatly appreciate your postings this helps to clear things for everyone providing the right interpretation. I believe with this dates will move significantly into 2005 for Eb3-I if HR 3012 becomes effective by Oct 2012.

[sagar8880]

Can someone please tell me how to check the total EB3 applications number between May 2007 and July 2010?

[pappu]

@ iv member I advice not post junk from other websites by quoting it and asking it here. It only spreads misinformation. And putting a link makes people go to such websites and get influenced by the views of a person / people that plays to the crowd to get more business. we have deleted your post. After having been close to this issue and frequently speaking with officials we have known how things work? We were also naive like many 6 years ago when we started IV. Many so called experts seem to be clueless when we read their posts on the forums. And the funny part is that some post so much and in a style of an expert that other people start worshipping them. One of the purpose of this site is to raise awareness and we will try to help fellow immigrants of this community whenever we can.

[ForGC]

I have been waiting for 6 years. My priority date is Dec 2006. I missed June 2007 so I have not applied 485 yet. It is really frustrating. Last I visited india 5 years back. I really hope HR 3012 pass though I am not sure when my date will become current even after passing this bill. But this bill will help most of the folks waiting ahead of me. IV is doing a great job.

[mastmunda]

Hey Teddy,

What is your predictions for EB2 category for the next FY13. Do you see motivation of USCIS to not do quarterly spillovers for next FY13 yr?

Thanks,

[sonline]

October 2012 predictions news from Murthy..

June 28, 2012

The U.S. Department of State (DOS), Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, expects to establish a cutoff date of August or September 2007 for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China, in the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. They further predict that this cutoff date will not advance during the first two quarters of fiscal year 2013 (FY13), which begins on October 1, 2012. A detailed explanation of the reasons behind these disappointing predictions, and the current retrogression, will be forthcoming on MurthyDotCom.

[gc_check]

October 2012 predictions news from Murthy..

June 28, 2012

The U.S. Department of State (DOS), Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, expects to establish a cutoff date of August or September 2007 for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China, in the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. They further predict that this cutoff date will not advance during the first two quarters of fiscal year 2013 (FY13), which begins on October 1, 2012. A detailed explanation of the reasons behind these disappointing predictions, and the current retrogression, will be forthcoming on MurthyDotCom.

This emphasis the need, more than ever, to work with Immigration Voice on HR3012 or other congressional solutions. EB2 I/C situation isn't better than EB3 for PD's 07 and applicants with later PD's.
Go to Thread and do the AI's requested to help yourself.
Follow Actions (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum16-iv-agenda-and-legislative-updates/3041365-update-action-item-hr3012-ask-your-employer-to-sign-this-petition-supporting-hr3012-24.html#post3510729)

[rajchadha]

Thanks Sonoline for update. Indeed very disappointing prediction. However keep in mind that it can change very quickly if HR 3012 becomes the law of the the land.
So GO IV!

October 2012 predictions news from Murthy..

June 28, 2012

The U.S. Department of State (DOS), Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, expects to establish a cutoff date of August or September 2007 for the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China, in the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. They further predict that this cutoff date will not advance during the first two quarters of fiscal year 2013 (FY13), which begins on October 1, 2012. A detailed explanation of the reasons behind these disappointing predictions, and the current retrogression, will be forthcoming on MurthyDotCom.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends here is what has happened for EB2 this year and its impact to next year. Let us try to come up with ROW consumption from another angle.
- EB2 I/C probably used 22 - 24K this year. This gives ROW + M + P a wiggle room of 16 - 18K.
- When the brakes were applied that was the time they realized that EB1 will actually use up its entire cap this year, essentially EB1 would not lose anything. EB1 using its full cap was not a surprise considering that last year the Kazarian memo slowed down things, there was a huge reduction of I140 backlog and EB1C usage was quite high. Based on these factors I had made a prediction that Eb1 will probably not give any SOFAD this year.
- From 2011 v/s 2012 approvals for EB2 ROW Primary approvals are 507 to 330.
- Now for simplicity let’s assume that EB2 ROW, M & P were all equally impacted with EB2 I/C crossing the line assuming the demands were same this year as well we saw 330/507 = .65 of the approvals from last year. For simplicity I have assumed the ROW numbers from to represent ROW + M + P.
- Now .65 of 28 gives the range of 18. The figure of 18K gels well with the guesstimated value of 22K of what Eb2 I/C have consumed assuming the 40K allowed for EB2.
- So if we go by 18K then .35 of this i.e. ~ 6-6.5K was not satiated this year. This kind of wipes out ROW sofad for the upcoming year or at least 75% of it.
Let’s wait and see how things turn out when the FY 2013 starts in October. I believe it will take a minimum of 1 quarter for EB2 ROW to be current on the VB and then another quarter to run current ion terms of approvals. ROW can only give SOFAD when they are current in terms of approvals.

Friends Iam bumping one of my posts from the recent days. EB2 ROW not providing any SOFAD for 2 quarters was expected and anticipated. Thanks to AILA for publishing and disseminating this for the benefit of the community. This only goes to confirm the predictions that were made earlier in the thread. Basically around 8K of EB2 ROW demand was not satisfied in FY 2012 so it will be preferentially satisfied in FY 2013. The golden assumption in this analysis is HR 3012 not passing, if HR 3012 were to pass it will be a totally different situation.

[amulchandra]

Hi Teddy,

In the light of new info from AILA about porting, can you please tell me how much porting is going to impact both EB2 and EB3 movements. According to info in March 2012 alone they had around 10,000 porting cases approved.

Thank you in advance
Amul

[TeddyKoochu]

@ iv member I advice not post junk from other websites by quoting it and asking it here. It only spreads misinformation. And putting a link makes people go to such websites and get influenced by the views of a person / people that plays to the crowd to get more business. we have deleted your post. After having been close to this issue and frequently speaking with officials we have known how things work? We were also naive like many 6 years ago when we started IV. Many so called experts seem to be clueless when we read their posts on the forums. And the funny part is that some post so much and in a style of an expert that other people start worshipping them. One of the purpose of this site is to raise awareness and we will try to help fellow immigrants of this community whenever we can.

Pappu you are the IV admin so what you decide here prevails. Iam just expressing my thoughts and point of view. We all support HR 3012 having gone through this injustice for years that is absolutely the focus.

- It is extremely important to quote the source of information and give credit to the same; not doing that is actually close to plagiarism. Just like copying someone's analysis or style in totality and showing that as one's own. In that regard quoting a link is a very good and established practice.
- Now coming to the quality of information, I believe most people are mature enough to judge what is right or wrong, most people on this thread do like to see some kind of numerical justification to things. Many times the information from AILA and other sites has proven to be extremely helpful and well ahead of time, however that is different from one individual expressing his / he own individual views.
- At every stage of the process most of us have been naive and at times ignorant. Everyone has a learning curve and it really starts when we get into the process. Back in Jul 2007 I was just learning what the VB is actually and where to look for it when everyone at that time was scrambling to have their documents together, In hindsight I realize how naive I was at that time. Knowledge essentially is power.
- Nobody is intending to be god here and elsewhere, what people look for is reasonable information, very few people are actually interested in how the conclusion was arrived at most are interested in the conclusion itself.
- With discussion, debate and information with a little bit of common sense we all arrive at our judgments both here and elsewhere.
- People really value the credibility and quality of information and the mature one's which I believe most of the audience here is are ready to accept tough scenarios as well rather than rosy projections if those are close to reality. Most people understand that the movement in FY 2012 was to create an inventory rather than being based on any kind of numerical calculation.
- This is a process of learning and understanding. Just a couple of posts back immigrant0909 gave a great analysis on HR3012 quoting the various sections and sub sections which helped everyone to have a good understanding, all credit to him / her, this is not being clueless but about teamwork and sharing your understanding with everyone.
- Commercial gain is talked about very often here, I believe as long as the information is helpful to us we should not be concerned about it. Again it is not millions involved here people posting wrong information loose all credibility and the first to post gain it. This thread on IV is a all time most popular thread and all benefits if any go to IV, Personally I have nothing to gain in anyway, Iam an ordinary individual who went through the grinds of this process and just an independent commentator while I was through it and now.
Need of the hour is HR 3012 this thread only helps to compliment it by trying to understand and explain the impact. As many have said it’s now or never.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,

In the light of new info from AILA about porting, can you please tell me how much porting is going to impact both EB2 and EB3 movements. According to info in March 2012 alone they had around 10,000 porting cases approved.

Thank you in advance
Amul

This just my personal opinion though but to an extent I believe that the figures are an overstatement especially the upper limit of 15K is way over the top.
Total porting of 10K still looks reasonable with probably 1/3rd of it coming from ROW itself.
That leaves us with 6-7K this seems to be a reasonable figure here is why.
When dates were at 2007 most estimates and actual calculations showed porting to be only 3K. With dates moving much further and disparity between Eb2 and EB3 becoming 8 years 6K is a pretty fair figure though on the higher side.
Assuming no HR 3012 the SOFAD might just be 12K so 6K in this case is huge but if we have HR 3012 then 6JK out of 40K does not make any significant difference.
To see actual porting for India we should see a reduction in the EB3-I inventory we haven’t seen anything of that order. Porting would in the long run help those within Eb3 who are not porting by reducing the inventory significantly.

[amulchandra]

Thank you very much Teddy. I really appreciate your reply. Being stuck for so long really takes it's toll on you. I think people like me hang to any glimmer of hope we come across no matter how improbable that might be.

Thank you again

Amul

[TeddyKoochu]

Thank you very much Teddy. I really appreciate your reply. Being stuck for so long really takes it's toll on you. I think people like me hang to any glimmer of hope we come across no matter how improbable that might be.

Thank you again

Amul

Thanks for your kind words. Personally he journey for me was complete in Mar this year. I do understand how understand how it has been waiting.
Iam still here just as a commentator just like when I was waiting, to be with all my friends with who are in the process, as long as we can think clearly without being blind sighted by our own cases we can actually help all our friends understand the current situation and help them gain clarity.
Hope is life and it keeps us running, we will all make it to the finish line, HR 3012 will make it happen sooner.

[amitjoey]

Thanks Teddy

[flthere]

Thanks for your kind words. Personally he journey for me was complete in Mar this year. I do understand how understand how it has been waiting.
Iam still here just as a commentator just like when I was waiting, to be with all my friends with who are in the process, as long as we can think clearly without being blind sighted by our own cases we can actually help all our friends understand the current situation and help them gain clarity.
Hope is life and it keeps us running, we will all make it to the finish line, HR 3012 will make it happen sooner.

Thanks Teddy for your kindness and I'd say more than IV, the analysis you have been doing is what has been bringing me to IV forums. I understand the IV core will certainly have many things to keep in mind before divulging information. But your posts are the ones that keep us all informed unlike a last minute AI that comes out of IV. If IV is Sun, you are the light rays reaching us on the earth. We certainly don't know what's burning inside the Sun to generate the light n heat, but the rays keep us warm n hopeful.

Your analyses is what one would expect to come from IV officially, unless I'm mistaken here.

[pappu]

Teddy you are doing a good job and know what info is useful and what is misinformation or could mislead. Go ahead and post links when needed to stress the facts. Info from AIla on date movement is genuine and can be quoted. The reason for the earlier post was when some naive member posted some info that was misleading and incorrect even if it was from a lawyer website. It was deleted so that people here can get accurate info if possible. You can chat with me anytime if you have doubts. You are respected and valued so I will always have time for you however busy I am. :)

[baangdus]

New Demand Data out, any interesting findings gurus?

[TeddyKoochu]

New Demand Data out, any interesting findings gurus?

Friends the demand data is probably on expected lines with preadjudicated cases increasing.
- EB2 I/C preadjudicated cases have increased to ~ 28K.
- I believe it is more significant to see the next inventory especially for 2009 and 2010 cases.
- In the last few years numbers have run out in September this year looks like the numbers for some categories besides EB2 I/C which is unavailable already will run out sooner.
- Since the available numbers are less I believe we should really not expect much in the upcoming VB.
-It will be interesting to watch EB2 ROW if it goes to Unavailable or if EB1 also has a cutoff date for India or as a whole.
Good luck for the VB. I believe what happens in this VB especially with EB2 ROW and Eb1 will set the sentiment for the upcoming year.

[fatboysam]

Hi Teddy,
A side question, Is their anyway to find out if my case is preajudicated or not ? my PD is Jan 2009.

Thanks

Friends the demand data is probably on expected lines with preadjudicated cases increasing.
- EB2 I/C preadjudicated cases have increased to ~ 28K.
- I believe it is more significant to see the next inventory especially for 2009 and 2010 cases.
- In the last few years numbers have run out in September this year looks like the numbers for some categories besides EB2 I/C which is unavailable already will run out sooner.
- Since the available numbers are less I believe we should really not expect much in the upcoming VB.
-It will be interesting to watch EB2 ROW if it goes to Unavailable or if EB1 also has a cutoff date for India or as a whole.
Good luck for the VB. I believe what happens in this VB especially with EB2 ROW and Eb1 will set the sentiment for the upcoming year.

[immigrant2007]

Friends the demand data is probably on expected lines with preadjudicated cases increasing.
- EB2 I/C preadjudicated cases have increased to ~ 28K.
- I believe it is more significant to see the next inventory especially for 2009 and 2010 cases.
- In the last few years numbers have run out in September this year looks like the numbers for some categories besides EB2 I/C which is unavailable already will run out sooner.
- Since the available numbers are less I believe we should really not expect much in the upcoming VB.
-It will be interesting to watch EB2 ROW if it goes to Unavailable or if EB1 also has a cutoff date for India or as a whole.
Good luck for the VB. I believe what happens in this VB especially with EB2 ROW and Eb1 will set the sentiment for the upcoming year.

Hi Teddy

With Number of Labors for ROW countries Certified being only 6800 upto Q2 (assuming EB2 ROW is current, how come ROW is still consuming EB2? where are the other EB2 cases for ROW coming from? Even Pending Inventory states these ROW pending cases are 11000.

[pappu]

Hi Teddy,
A side question, Is their anyway to find out if my case is preajudicated or not ? my PD is Jan 2009.

Thanks

There is no way to find that. It was one of the question we asked. Pre-adj is an internal process and applicants should not be worried about it.

[pappu]

Hi Teddy

With Number of Labors for ROW countries Certified being only 6800 upto Q2 (assuming EB2 ROW is current, how come ROW is still consuming EB2? where are the other EB2 cases for ROW coming from? Even Pending Inventory states these ROW pending cases are 11000.

These EB2ROW could be CP cases, cases in litigation, age out cases etc could get approval. There were only 100-300 visas left for the year as of mid june. The number maybe less by now.

[thomachan72]

These EB2ROW could be CP cases, cases in litigation, age out cases etc could get approval. There were only 100-300 visas left for the year as of mid june. The number maybe less by now.

according to the data it looks like Indian demand is several times the chinese. Is that really true? If china has such low demand comp to India why are they not progressing much more rapidly??

[anfu02]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_August2012.pdf

[blrsfo]

got an RFE for 485 while my date is not current. Any idea why this would have happened? Any significance to other members who are waiting?

[mechanical13]

got an RFE for 485 while my date is not current. Any idea why this would have happened? Any significance to other members who are waiting?

This probably means that your case in the process of being pre-adjudicated. My sister applied during the 2007 fiasco, and got her GC last late year. She received an RFE in 2008 when the dates were retrogressed too.

Guess this is part of the pre-adjudication process. Has your online status changed to RFE? Was it on Initial Review prior to the change?

Many of us who applied early this year noticed that our status changed from "Initial Review" to "Acceptance" in early June. Did you notice a similar change in your status, or has your case remained on "Initial Review" since the time you submitted it ? This will help everyone understand if cases that have changed to "Acceptance" are still being worked on in the background i.e. preajudicated.

On a related note - can you share with us what your RFE is about? Vaccination? EVL?

Thanks!

[spiderman]

Where is this data available? Is it public?

[ascetic]

Where is this data available? Is it public?

Did you mean the data regarding pre adjudication ? - it is not available anywhere.
Or did you mean the visa bulletin? - The link is in the last but two post.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
A side question, Is their anyway to find out if my case is preajudicated or not ? my PD is Jan 2009.

Thanks

If you do not receive any RFE in the next few months you can assume that your case is pre-adjudicated. This is an internal status if you get some kind officer on the phone they can probably tell you if your case is in that status.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy

With Number of Labors for ROW countries Certified being only 6800 upto Q2 (assuming EB2 ROW is current, how come ROW is still consuming EB2? where are the other EB2 cases for ROW coming from? Even Pending Inventory states these ROW pending cases are 11000.

How did you derive the figure as 6.8K for ROW? ROW inventory in the preceding years has been 6-7K in that regard 11K is a higher figure.

[immigrant2007]

How did you derive the figure as 6.8K for ROW? ROW inventory in the preceding years has been 6-7K in that regard 11K is a higher figure.


Hi Teddy I was referring to Approved Labro certifications for Q1-Q2 for Non India-China.

[moonrah]

Sorry to divert here...but

My priority date is June 2008. I applied 485 in Feb 2012. Fingerprinting is done but 485 still shows acceptance. My file is in NSC. Shouldn't they start reviewing it atleast? It has been more than four months and their deadline is 4 months. Is there anybody in the same boat?

Thanks in advance.

[immigrant2007]

Sorry to divert here...but

My priority date is June 2008. I applied 485 in Feb 2012. Fingerprinting is done but 485 still shows acceptance. My file is in NSC. Shouldn't they start reviewing it atleast? It has been more than four months and their deadline is 4 months. Is there anybody in the same boat?

Thanks in advance.

Sorry to divert here...but

My priority date is 2004. I applied 485 in July 2007. Fingerprinting is done thrice but 485 still shows in review . My file is in TSC. Is there anybody in the same boat? Oh I forgot to tell its EB3

[spiderman]

It looks like people are talking about number of applications per country.. I was wondering where that data comes from.

In other words, other than the visa bulletin, is there any other data that we have access to?

Did you mean the data regarding pre adjudication ? - it is not available anywhere.
Or did you mean the visa bulletin? - The link is in the last but two post.

[flthere]

How did you derive the figure as 6.8K for ROW? ROW inventory in the preceding years has been 6-7K in that regard 11K is a higher figure.

Hey Teddy ... quick question ... The senate's HR3012 amendment still says "... FY2012 .." .. Is it true that FY2012 visas are almost all exhausted so we won't see any visas from 2012 allocated even if HR 3012 passes ?

[mechanical13]

Hey Teddy ... quick question ... The senate's HR3012 amendment still says "... FY2012 .." .. Is it true that FY2012 visas are almost all exhausted so we won't see any visas from 2012 allocated even if HR 3012 passes ?

There was a discussion about this earlier in the thread. It is likely that they will have to change the enforcement date to FY 2013 (Starting Oct 2012).

Once GCs are issued, they can't be revoked simply because of change in the law. Those GCs that have been issued are already gone.

[mechanical13]

It looks like people are talking about number of applications per country.. I was wondering where that data comes from.

In other words, other than the visa bulletin, is there any other data that we have access to?

There are multiple sets of data available in the public domain that can help with predictions:

1) Perm data from the DoL

2) 485 Pending inventory from USCIS

3) Demand data from the DoS

The calculation gurus use this data (along with other approximations and extrapolations) to arrive at amazingly accurate estimates. Teddy is the master-guru in this !

[mechanical13]

Gurus,

Is it true that "Demand Data" represents pre-adjudicated cases only?

If thats true, then the most recent DD should mean that approximately 11,500 and 8,000 485 applicants from India from 2008 and 2009 have been already pre-adjudicated.

So, does this mean that if we don't hear from back from USCIS in the next couple of months, we can assume our case has been pre-adj?

Does anyone know what the historical RFE rate has been?

[mzc123]

Demand Data used in the determination of the September 2012 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[SGP]

This means Sept 2012 should be out in a couple of days. This is the general trend which I have noticed.

[mzc123]

This means Sept 2012 should be out in a couple of days. This is the general trend which I have noticed.

about time... but there isn't any excitment anticipated.. as usual, it will show "U".

Real test will be Oct 2012 VB.

[pd052011]

The demand data document reads like a sad story :eek:

[billu]

any predictions for FY2013 by the experts based on latest DD?

[ascetic]

any predictions for FY2013 by the experts based on latest DD?

Demand data only has the post-adjudication cases for which a visa number is been requested. Therefore we cannot be sure how many more cases are pending adjudication. The next DD should contain higher numbers than what is there at present. Therefore I will wait until October for them to release the next DD and the inventory before any assessments could be made. As of now the belief is that the dates might remain at 'U' for the rest of the year. :(

[kevin08]

any predictions for FY2013 by the experts based on latest DD?

Any FY 2013 predictions from forum experts?

[fatboysam]

Any FY 2013 predictions from forum experts?
oh teddy teddy, oh teddy teddy

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks fatboysam, first let’s see what this VB for September has to say. Couple of facts
- The numbers will be in short supply by now.
- For Eb2 it is very important to see that EB1 does not retrogress.
- Starting in FY 2013 we have a backlog of 6-8K for ROW which will take 1 full quarter to literally clear.
- HR 3012 will have a very big bearing on how the upcoming year will progress for both EB2 and Eb3.
- One interesting thing though about the new perm data the numbers are very heavily skewed towards India this will have a bearing on Eb2 ROW future filings.
- EB3 has entered a very dense zone without HR 3012 the movement will just be 1 week realistic to 2 weeks optimistic the density really rises as we approach December.
- Come 01-Oct Eb2 India date will be set at 01-AUG-2007 most likely, expect very little action without HR 3012.
- For the upcoming VB I think 2 weeks of movement is possible for EB3-I to grab maximum number of cases prior to the year closure.

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data only has the post-adjudication cases for which a visa number is been requested. Therefore we cannot be sure how many more cases are pending adjudication. The next DD should contain higher numbers than what is there at present. Therefore I will wait until October for them to release the next DD and the inventory before any assessments could be made. As of now the belief is that the dates might remain at 'U' for the rest of the year. :(

That’s very true; the next inventory should be the best indicator of the true volume of the filings till 01-May-2010. Right now the processing for EB3 (especially ROW) and EB1 appears to be going at a decent pace and older cases are being cleared.

[The WalL]

That’s very true; the next inventory should be the best indicator of the true volume of the filings till 01-May-2010. Right now the processing for EB3 (especially ROW) and EB1 appears to be going at a decent pace and older cases are being cleared.

While I agree that inventory will be better in the next update, keep in mind that CO did say USCIS would continue pre adjudication and keep cases ready for having the pipeline ready to go. So we should keep seeing DD numbers go up for EB2 for another VB release or two.

[billu]

just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks fatboysam, first let’s see what this VB for September has to say. Couple of facts
- The numbers will be in short supply by now.
- For Eb2 it is very important to see that EB1 does not retrogress.
- Starting in FY 2013 we have a backlog of 6-8K for ROW which will take 1 full quarter to literally clear.
- HR 3012 will have a very big bearing on how the upcoming year will progress for both EB2 and Eb3.
- One interesting thing though about the new perm data the numbers are very heavily skewed towards India this will have a bearing on Eb2 ROW future filings.
- EB3 has entered a very dense zone without HR 3012 the movement will just be 1 week realistic to 2 weeks optimistic the density really rises as we approach December.
- Come 01-Oct Eb2 India date will be set at 01-AUG-2007 most likely, expect very little action without HR 3012.
- For the upcoming VB I think 2 weeks of movement is possible for EB3-I to grab maximum number of cases prior to the year closure.
Visa Bulletin For September 2012 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5759.html)

September VB is out, good to see EB1 as current and EB2 ROW still available. Next milestone is when they announce that numbers ae over for the year. For EB1 still cases filed as far back as 2011 are being approved.

[gk_2000]

Visa Bulletin For September 2012 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5759.html)

September VB is out, good to see EB1 as current and EB2 ROW still available. Next milestone is when they announce that numbers ae over for the year. For EB1 still cases filed as far back as 2011 are being approved.

What a disgusting page :mad:

[StuckInTexas]

Quick question to the gurus in this forum.

My PD is Dec 2010.
Seeing the EB2 Demand Data below from the PDF, there are at least 26275 people ahead of me in India queue and probably more if more people port from EB3.
I see that quota per country is only 3000
Does that mean I have to wait 10 years?
I think I am not considering something.
If HR3012 is not passed what would the quota be for India for next year?


Cumulative
Demand

Prior To China India ROW Total
January 1, 2008 800 4,900 25 5,725
January 1, 2009 3,650 17,700 50 21,400
January 1, 2010 5,625 26,275 250 32,150
January 1, 2012 6,025 28,250 2,775 37,050


Notes:
- All totals are approximate values
- Categories not listed are "current"
- Data as of August 8, 2012
The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have
been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above
totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply, or for a category other than that which they initially filed for status. Therefore, the
above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only
represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly
cut-off dates.

[krishmunn]

Theoritically you need to wait for 10 + years. Practically , visas not used by other groups (EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB-2 ROW) flows into EB2-I and EB2-C . so EB2-I/C sees a leap forward sometime in 3rd and 4th quarter .
My conservative guess is , EB2-I will cross June 2008 by end of next fiscal (Sept 2013) unless Teddy's calculations point to some other direction.

[StuckInTexas]

Thanks for the reply.
June 2008 sounds bad in 1 year.
I am hoping after that it will move faster since most people from 2008-2010 will get their GCs soon.

I missed the May 2010 by 6 months.
I know it is not as bad but the most frustrating thing is that my PD should have been 2009 except my lawyer did not file labor correctly and had to refile in 2010 and it took months to get it approved.

Will we get better idea of the demand next month?

[jindhal]

Not to rain on your parade, but the count that you see in the current bulletin is only for people who have their priority dates prior to May 2010 and who were able to successfully file their application. There will approx 8k additional numbers between May 2010 and Dec 2010 and that is a conservative estimate. On average you should assume about 4-5 years processing time for an EB2 green card. Of course a lot depends on the number of visas used up by other categories, but considering the up ward movement of the market, I do not think there is going to be a lot of spill over.

Just my 2 cents.

[needhelp!]

Come to the Rally.. End the guess work for good.

Not to rain on your parade, but the count that you see in the current bulletin is only for people who have their priority dates prior to May 2010 and who were able to successfully file their application. There will approx 8k additional numbers between May 2010 and Dec 2010 and that is a conservative estimate. On average you should assume about 4-5 years processing time for an EB2 green card. Of course a lot depends on the number of visas used up by other categories, but considering the up ward movement of the market, I do not think there is going to be a lot of spill over.

Just my 2 cents.

[cool_desi_gc]

Is there a palce to track how these cutoff dates and numbers are changing when they release the demand numbers every month ?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

It would nice to see some trends and 'try' to figure out stuff.

My PD is Dec 8th 2002 EB3. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Man, what a journey:eek:

[fatboysam]

Teddy, Pappu and other experts

what shall we expect in Oct VB ?

[tm.efrt]

I've joined a company on EAD ( EB3 2004 ), which filed labour in EB2 recently, beginning of Aug 2012 in EB2 Category.
I'm hearing some rumor's, that the company might get acquired by a new company and process will finish in next 4 months.
I got a offer from other company, which is ready to refile my Eb2 application.

Is it advisable to stick to the current position, or take up the offer and start the EB2 Process again.

Thanks for taking time to read my post.!!

[mzc123]

I got an email that my case has a change of status - turns out, it's a RFE..... not sure what to expect.

Questions:
1) Who receives the RFE notice? me or my employer?
2) Any one in the same boat? seen any changes to their case(s) lately?

Wonder what the RFE is for after close to a year of 485 filing!!

[bang]

Is there a palce to track how these cutoff dates and numbers are changing when they release the demand numbers every month ?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

It would nice to see some trends and 'try' to figure out stuff.

My PD is Dec 8th 2002 EB3. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Man, what a journey:eek:

Totally understand ... mine is Nov, seems near, yet too far based on week by week advancement.

[tampacoolie]

Is there a palce to track how these cutoff dates and numbers are changing when they release the demand numbers every month ?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

It would nice to see some trends and 'try' to figure out stuff.

My PD is Dec 8th 2002 EB3. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Man, what a journey:eek:

I attached the spreadsheet that I had collected specifically for EB3I. The second sheet "charts" contains demand burndown chart and single column bar chart to see the progress or trend. The first sheet contains some formula calculate, average, standard deviation and some trend projection for the next month and for January 2019. I am looking at demand data prior to 2007 only. But you can modify the formulas to fit your needs.

[sircaustic]

My EB-2 I-140 was recently approved with old priority date of March 2007 of my EB-3 filing. I know for sure I-485 has been pre-adjudicated. What's the best and worst case scenario when I can expect to receive the GC?

Thank you in advance to those who care to answer.

[krishmunn]

My EB-2 I-140 was recently approved with old priority date of March 2007 of my EB-3 filing. I know for sure I-485 has been pre-adjudicated. What's the best and worst case scenario when I can expect to receive the GC?

Thank you in advance to those who care to answer.

If it is pre-adjudicated , you will get it by Oct/Nov 2012. Question: How did you confirm that it is pre-adjudicated ?

[sircaustic]

If it is pre-adjudicated , you will get it by Oct/Nov 2012. Question: How did you confirm that it is pre-adjudicated ?

There was a minor hiccup in our I-485 application due to which our case was transferred to a NBC and subsequently, we were asked to appear for an interview. At the end of the 5 minute interview, family and I were given a letter by the officer stating our case is pending visa number availability. This was almost 2 years ago.
If my assumption that our case is already pre-adjudicated is incorrect, please let me know.
thanks

[pappu]

Teddy, Pappu and other experts

what shall we expect in Oct VB ?

Second week of next month.

Are you coming for the San Jose Rally?

By being successful in our efforts we will not have to watch these bulletins forever.

[arun_ramani]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all-form-types-performance-data_fy2012_qtr3.pdf

I have a quick question. Considering the fact that USCIS approvals till June was 104,274 and if we add CP cases around 15-16k, can we wish for around 10-15k of available visas for this month ? Is there a possibility that USCIS may waste those visas ?

I remember EB3 lost around 800-900 visas last year. Any thoughts ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I just saw the following article from Murthy, refer the link below for details.
Visa Bulletin Projections – October 2012 « Murthy Law Firm : U.S. Immigration Law (http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/visa-bulletin-projections-october-2012/)

- Most of us believe that the cutoff date for the Oct VB would be 01-AUG-2007, however CO himself seems to indicate that this is an optimistic projection.

- The number of erstwhile PWMB cases with PD before 01-AUG-2007 should not be too high, there are some extremely unlucky individuals whose files were not picked up despite filing in Oct / Nov 2011.

- Porting cases have been piling up now as EB2 I/C is unavailable they will have earlier PD than PWMB cases.

- In October monthly allocation is being released as opposed to quarterly so its just 240 as opposed to 720 for both India and China.

Let’s see what comes up in the bulletin though. We should be getting hearing the announcement that numbers have run out for 2012 very soon. Good to see EB1 cases getting approved this augurs well for FY 2013.

[fatboysam]

We should be getting hearing the announcement that numbers have run out for 2012 very soon. Good to see EB1 cases getting approved this augurs well for FY 2013.
when will the new numbers be issues, from Jan 2013 ?

[pd052009]

I just saw the following article from Murthy, refer the link below for details.
Visa Bulletin Projections – October 2012 « Murthy Law Firm : U.S. Immigration Law (http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/visa-bulletin-projections-october-2012/)

- Most of us believe that the cutoff date for the Oct VB would be 01-AUG-2007, however CO himself seems to indicate that this is an optimistic projection.

- In October monthly allocation is being released as opposed to quarterly so its just 240 as opposed to 720 for both India and China.


I don't see much info in that site except the page filled with some sentences. BTW, where did you get the montly allocation information?

[TeddyKoochu]

when will the new numbers be issues, from Jan 2013 ?

New numbers will start from Oct 2012.

I don't see much info in that site except the page filled with some sentences. BTW, where did you get the monthly allocation information?

You can divide 2800 odd by 12 for monthly or by 4 for quarterly to get the figures. 2800 comes from 7% of 28.8% of 140K. The other points I listed are my own thoughts they are not from the article.

[imh1b]

I don't see much info in that site except the page filled with some sentences. BTW, where did you get the montly allocation information?

It is so that kids like you will copy paste the link on all websites and talk about it. It is called marketing.

[eyeswe]

- Porting cases have been piling up now as EB2 I/C is unavailable they will have earlier PD than PWMB cases.
.[/QUOTE]

Teddy - Obviously i am not familiar with the mechanics and so a dumb question. If the category is U, how will the porting cases pile up since they may not have had a chance to file at all, right? Or may be I am missing something. I do agree though that once the dates open up next year, the porting cases will come right in...

[TeddyKoochu]

- Porting cases have been piling up now as EB2 I/C is unavailable they will have earlier PD than PWMB cases.
.

Teddy - Obviously i am not familiar with the mechanics and so a dumb question. If the category is U, how will the porting cases pile up since they may not have had a chance to file at all, right? Or may be I am missing something. I do agree though that once the dates open up next year, the porting cases will come right in...[/QUOTE]

Most of the porting cases are from those individuals who have already filed I485 under EB3 I/C. To port now they just need a approved I140 and interfiling request these are the cases that are piling up precisely because the category is unavailable.

[greyhair]

Most of the porting cases

Teddy:

I just saw someone posted this link on another forum. Do you know about this? Is this your blog?
Immigrant in America (http://greencardeb2eb3.blogspot.com)

What happens if I don't get approved ead before the expiry of my current ead? Is this happening for real?

Thank You for serving the community

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy:

I just saw someone posted this link on another forum. Do you know about this? Is this your blog?
Immigrant in America (http://greencardeb2eb3.blogspot.com)

What happens if I don't get approved ead before the expiry of my current ead? Is this happening for real?

Thank You for serving the community

I have read about some cases about EAD delay here on IV and elsewhere. I read the blog link that you posted, Iam not the author of that blog or remotely connected to it in anyway.
My personal take is a lot of this is fear psychosis; situation may not be all that bad. What you can do however is to file as early as possible so that you have maximum time and file online so that your application reaches in time. If still there is a delay best way is to follow up creating a SR or calling the 1800# etc best to escalate before time. If even that does not work contact / escalate via congressman / senator anything is better than losing one’s job.

[TeddyKoochu]

Over the last few days I have observed that there are certain individuals who visit this thread for the sole objective of ridiculing and vilifying the very essence and purpose of this thread. The sole purpose of this thread is to help individuals better understand the wait times ahead.

This thread is by all means supportive of advocacy and HR3012 in fact any sane individual from a retrogressed country would be supportive of a bill like HR 3012 irrespective of belonging to EB2 or EB3. This is the only thread where time and again people have learnt about the true benefit of HR 3012 in terms of where dates would move for EB2 and EB3 India.

This is the second version of this thread and has already attracted 1.8 million visits the first one was retired after 5 million. You can imagine the power of this magnetic thread not only do the individuals benefit in the process but IV itself which is the sole beneficiary in terms of getting any benefits of page views (PS – I am compelled to say this because some individuals keep talking about it with a very negative connotation) and getting new individuals to the site out of which a select few would become volunteers and advocates.

On any forum typing in all caps, using large font or simply using demeaning language is against any form of decorum and courtesy expected of highly educated individuals. I can understand that it is important to motivate individuals however it’s best to stick to the specific threads already running or that purpose, so its best to keep individual feelings / situation away in the interest of larger good for all. I hope the moderators would be fair to all, I do understand that they may be hard pressed for time. PS – Iam not a moderator even though my Id may show that.

Finally I would urge all to let the constructive discussion continue here and critique of methodology, predictions and calculations is very welcome in fact that has been the backbone of this thread. This thread is well beyond any individual it’s a great medium that we have to help each other and share information to the benefit of everyone. So let’s have the free flow of information going for the benefit of all.

[pappu]

Over the last few days I have observed that there are certain individuals who visit this thread for the sole objective of ridiculing and vilifying the very essence and purpose of this thread. The sole purpose of this thread is to help individuals better understand the wait times ahead.

This thread is by all means supportive of advocacy and HR3012 in fact any sane individual from a retrogressed country would be supportive of a bill like HR 3012 irrespective of belonging to EB2 or EB3. This is the only thread where time and again people have learnt about the true benefit of HR 3012 in terms of where dates would move for EB2 and EB3 India.

This is the second version of this thread and has already attracted 1.8 million visits the first one was retired after 5 million. You can imagine the power of this magnetic thread not only do the individuals benefit in the process but IV itself which is the sole beneficiary in terms of getting any benefits of page views (PS – I am compelled to say this because some individuals keep talking about it with a very negative connotation) and getting new individuals to the site out of which a select few would become volunteers and advocates.

On any forum typing in all caps, using large font or simply using demeaning language is against any form of decorum and courtesy expected of highly educated individuals. I can understand that it is important to motivate individuals however it’s best to stick to the specific threads already running or that purpose, so its best to keep individual feelings / situation away in the interest of larger good for all. I hope the moderators would be fair to all, I do understand that they may be hard pressed for time. PS – Iam not a moderator even though my Id may show that.

Finally I would urge all to let the constructive discussion continue here and critique of methodology, predictions and calculations is very welcome in fact that has been the backbone of this thread. This thread is well beyond any individual it’s a great medium that we have to help each other and share information to the benefit of everyone. So let’s have the free flow of information going for the benefit of all.
Thank you Teddy.
Everyone, please help keep the thread clean. We all need to behave in a mature manner. This thread's moderation has been one of the most difficult task.

[krishmunn]

From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012. It will be safe to assume a similar number this year. Multiplying by a factor of 2, it turns to around 70 K Visa numbers. If we assume around 50 K in EB2 (rarely someone goes for EB3 now ) that eats up more than EB2 allocation. With only EB1 left over coming to India/China, I do not think we will see a great movement this year. Probably just a few months, that too by end of Fiscal

[waitingnwaiting]

I have read about some cases about EAD delay here on IV and elsewhere. I read the blog link that you posted, Iam not the author of that blog or remotely connected to it in anyway.
My personal take is a lot of this is fear psychosis; situation may not be all that bad. What you can do however is to file as early as possible so that you have maximum time and file online so that your application reaches in time. If still there is a delay best way is to follow up creating a SR or calling the 1800# etc best to escalate before time. If even that does not work contact / escalate via congressman / senator anything is better than losing one’s job.

I checked Immigrant in America (http://greencardeb2eb3.blogspot.com/) think it is possible. There has not been any effort to recruit new people to handle all the undocumented kids cases (1.7 million) . So in a few months this will become a big issue for all of us trying to get EAD, H1B etc. I think there is a reason why everyone is quiet or speaking in a quiet tone about this problem. The 1.7 million application is a huge bonus for immigration professionals and they do not want to raise any flags and oppose it. Moreover extra delays mean more business.

[needhelp!]

83 people viewing this thread right now. How many of you are coming for the SUMMIT.

How many of you updated your signatures so that guests can get more information on SUMMIT?

How many of you called a friend and convinced them to attend the SUMMIT.

I have made 400 calls. How many did you make?

RIGHT NOW IV FOCUS IS SUMMIT. WE NEED ALL THREADS ON MAIN PAGE FOCUSED ON SUMMIT.

[needhelp!]

Btw , this issue does not affect me personally. So i can always focus my energies elsewhere. Thanks for allowing me to shout the truth so that people pretending to be deaf will feel the vibrations.

[pappu]

Dear Friends,

For too many years, we have seen visa bulletins month after month and year after year that do not move at all for 3 or 4 countries, mainly India, China, Mexico and Philippines. For too many years, we have seen that our colleagues with same education and skills, who were not born in India or China, are ready to take oath of citizenship, while we are still refreshing visa bulletins on first Friday of each month. Since 2005, the wait times for India and China, especially in EB3 category have been around 8-15 years, just because we were born in India and China. And others have leap-frogged ahead years ago just because they were born elsewhere. Since when did country of birth become a job skill?

If you feel that system needs change, then you need to show up for change.

Change will not come by hoping that others will show up. Change will not come by playing cricket and sitting around in social parties on Saturday discussing visa bulletins. Change will not come by praying for better visa bulletins. Members of Congress are not going to go door to door and ask if you have an issue that they can solve. They will wait for you to show up again and again. They will need to know that you are serious. And they will act on things only if they know for sure that you are serious about your own issue.

We are having Fairness and Freedom this Saturday, 8th September in downtown San Jose. We need to send a strong message to members of Congress in Washington DC that we have a very unfair system and we are asking them to do right by us by passing H.R. 3012. We are counting on every one of you to show up, especially the local residents who live in the Bay area. This is a family friendly event and maximum participation is encouraged, so please come with your family members. Click here to RSVP (http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=80&Itemid=36).

Event Schedule:

· 10 AM – 12 PM. Circle of palms Plaza in Downtown San Jose.

Address: 150 South Market Street, San Jose, CA.

Event details: H.R. 3012 bill update, Introductions, Registration, Live music band, Q&A with Immigration Voice core team members, collect your free Immigration Voice T-shirt.

· 12 PM to 1 PM: Small afternoon snack will be arranged. After this event, we walk to next event at San Jose Center for Performing Arts. It’s a short 10-12 minute walk. (0.3 miles).



· 1 PM to 4 PM. San Jose Center for performing arts.

Address: 255 Almaden Boulevard, San Jose, CA

Event details: National Anthem by Jessica Johnson, Welcome Address, Speech from Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, Q&A with Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, Video address by Congressman Jason Chaffetz, Immigration Voice documentary on H.R. 3012, Panel discussion with Immigration and legislation experts, small comedy event, address to the crowd from Immigration Voice core team members, “God Bless America” by Jessica Johnson. The event will also be attended by high ranking official of DHS who overlooks immigration policy and also key industry entrepreneurs and leaders of high-tech community.

Please RSVP for this event as soon as possible if you are attending. Click here to RSVP (http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=80&Itemid=36).

Please plan to attend on time and bring your family with you. If you can bring your friends or colleagues who are also stuck in green-card waiting limbo, we would really appreciate it.

Stand up for yourself and your family. No one else will stand up for you. You have to do this for yourself.


Team IV

[Rb_newsletter]

From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012. It will be safe to assume a similar number this year. Multiplying by a factor of 2, it turns to around 70 K Visa numbers. If we assume around 50 K in EB2 (rarely someone goes for EB3 now ) that eats up more than EB2 allocation. With only EB1 left over coming to India/China, I do not think we will see a great movement this year. Probably just a few months, that too by end of Fiscal

If I understand your post correct:

35K PERM approved similar to FY 2012.
i.e. = 25K EB2 + 10K EB3
and you are saying 50K EB2 = 25K EB2 * 2 for dependendants

doesn't this 50K consists of all world wide applications?
If so 25K EB2 shoukd be split as India + China+ROW = 10K + 3K + 12K.
Then only 12K * 2 = 24K will be consumed from FY 2013 by ROW applications. Because EB2-I and EB2-C will go to backlog queue.

If total EB2 is ~40K per year, then we still have 40K - 24K ~= 16K for EB2 I+C.

[Rb_newsletter]

From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012.

Please provide the link for reference.

In other website it says 49,700. Check the link http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/Permanent-Labor-Certification-Report-July-2012.pdf.

[Rb_newsletter]

Please provide the link for reference.

In other website it says 49,700. Check the link http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/Permanent-Labor-Certification-Report-July-2012.pdf.

Ok I jumped the gun.

It is 49,700 applications received and 34,900 applications certified.

[Rb_newsletter]

From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012. It will be safe to assume a similar number this year. Multiplying by a factor of 2, it turns to around 70 K Visa numbers. If we assume around 50 K in EB2 (rarely someone goes for EB3 now ) that eats up more than EB2 allocation. With only EB1 left over coming to India/China, I do not think we will see a great movement this year. Probably just a few months, that too by end of Fiscal

The link (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/Permanent-Labor-Certification-Report-July-2012.pdf) also gives the below shown distribution, which would be helpful to guesstimate EB2 number.

Minimum Education Requirements
======================
Advanced Degree** -- 18,000 (51%)
Bachelor’s Degree ----- 13,600 (39%)
Other ------------------- 2,000 (6%)
Less than Bachelor’s -- 1,300 (4%)

[msamarch1980]

I just saw this latest news flash on murthy
NewsFlash! DOS Issues Revised EB2 Cutoff Date Prediction « Murthy Law Firm : U.S. Immigration Law (http://www.murthy.com/2012/09/06/newsflash-dos-issues-revised-eb2-cutoff-date-prediction/)

According to this the EB2 cut off date for October 2012 is predicted to go back to 2006.

This is really depressing for people like me who were hoping for positive news this October. I have PD of March 2008 and so that means now I have to wait much longer.

[krishmunn]

If I understand your post correct:

35K PERM approved similar to FY 2012.
i.e. = 25K EB2 + 10K EB3
and you are saying 50K EB2 = 25K EB2 * 2 for dependendants

doesn't this 50K consists of all world wide applications?
If so 25K EB2 shoukd be split as India + China+ROW = 10K + 3K + 12K.
Then only 12K * 2 = 24K will be consumed from FY 2013 by ROW applications. Because EB2-I and EB2-C will go to backlog queue.

If total EB2 is ~40K per year, then we still have 40K - 24K ~= 16K for EB2 I+C.

You are right ! I missed the part that this include I + C as well. So the ROW number will be much less than 50 K . That shows some hope. But again, remember EB2 ROW is backlogged now. So they will be satisfied from 2012 quota :(

[kutts76]

This is my take based on some reasonable assumptions:

Total PERM for FY 2012 = 35 K

We know I+C is approx 60% so ROW = 14K

Assuming 70% is EB2 = 10 K

Now for I-140 = 0.9x10 = 9K

No of ROW 485 = 9 x 2.2 = approx 20K

Spill to EB2 I+C

Backlogged ROW 485 = 7K,

So Spill from EB2 = 34 - 27 = 7K
Assume Spill from EB1 = 5K
and from EB4+EB5 = 7K

Total Spill = 19K.

Total allocation to EB I+C = 19 + 6 = 25K

This will be reduced by EB3I+C and EB3 ROW porting which is unknown (may be 10K??)

Net Allocation = 15K.

This should move EB2 I+C dates to Mid 2008 by end FY 2013.

[gc_on_demand]

From my past 5-6 years of exp on pd movement pattern , DOS moves date once a year , rapid movement. in 2007 it was in July , in 2008 it was in Aug.... last year it was in Oct - Jan. Still pre adjudicated volume is only 17k... If that number does not rise then date should be current in April - May bulletin. As Teddy said , only minimum allocation will be done in Oct so it may not look optimistic but in April everyone will get Surprise. If that 17k become 30k then chance are still there for forward movement till late 2008 or early 2009.

[EB2-buddy]

It appears all these number games are Election Gimmicks.
In 2000, before leaving Bill Clinton provided Amnesty and it gave heck of load on USCIS. They had to run backlog centers for a prolonged time. In 2008, they thought Bush would do similar thing and they opened the gates to reduce the pressure on them. Since nothing was declared in 2008, the dates were crawling until 1 year prior to next election,2012. In 2011 they accepted more I-485 applications in anticipation of HR-3012 or some immigration bill. Congress is busy with other issues and nothing happened. They are tightening the flow now and I guess date will only move at significant pace in 2014 - 2015. That too if Obama stays second term the pace will be much more in 2015.
My strong feeling is these EB3-EB2 porting or EB2-EB1 porting number games are much bosted to give some reasons for retrogression. Otherwise, if they plan properly they can move the dates more smoothly than this. Since this follows a pattern that has elections link, their moves must be motivated by politics. It may also be with the intention to grab more funds for the Election Time.

[saji007]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

I believe the cumulative prior to 2007 has increased by ~ 600 which is porting happening primarily for those cases from EB3-I where 485 was filed back in 2007 itself, these cases are ready to approve. The bulletin will most likely in line with the news that we have been hearing.

[fatboysam]

I believe the cumulative prior to 2007 has increased by ~ 600 which is porting happening primarily for those cases from EB3-I where 485 was filed back in 2007 itself, these cases are ready to approve. The bulletin will most likely in line with the news that we have been hearing.
Based on this data, where do you see PD for I/C by Apr 2013 ? thanks

[vdlrao]

Based on this data, where do you see PD for I/C by Apr 2013 ? thanks

somewhere around Oct 2008.

[bikram_das_in]

Does this mean EB2 priority date will be in 2006?

I believe the cumulative prior to 2007 has increased by ~ 600 which is porting happening primarily for those cases from EB3-I where 485 was filed back in 2007 itself, these cases are ready to approve. The bulletin will most likely in line with the news that we have been hearing.

[TeddyKoochu]

Does this mean EB2 priority date will be in 2006?

Yes it would be in 2006. The oct bulletin is around very small numbers between 240 - 720 based on monthly or quarterly so a better outcome is not expected.

somewhere around Oct 2008.
Based on this data, where do you see PD for I/C by Apr 2013 ? thanks

Its very early days my preliminary guess is Mar - Jun 2008. We should observe EB1 and EB2 ROW especially for a quarter to come up with something better. EB2 ROW we will start this year with a deficit so its payback time.

[suresh_la]

Hi All

I know VB will be out anytime now, but was curious which month it will be .

My PD is Aug 17 th 2006 .. hoping to get greened this time

Appreciate your response

Thanks
Suresh

[gten]

October bulletin is out
Visa Bulletin For October 2012 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html)

[bandoayan]

October 2012 visa bulletin is out.
EB2I - 01 Sept 2004
EB2C - 15JUL07
EB2ROW - 01JAN12


Visa Bulletin For October 2012 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html)

[vdlrao]

Eb2 i @ 01sep04

[bang]

Visa Bulletin For October 2012 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5770.html)

EB2 - I is 1st Sept 2004 & EB3 moves by one week (as expected)

[fatboysam]

ALL EXPERTS ARE GOOD FOR NOTHING, THE TRUTH IS NO ONE KNOWS HOW THIS SYSTEM WORKS, NOW GO AND DELETE THIS MESSAGE AND BAN ME IF YOU WANT, WHAT ELSE YOU CAN DO ??? :mad:

[PavanV]

Eb2 i @ 01sep04

Legal servitude extended, this is a wake up call for me, actually a good thing for me, time to head back,time to flush the green card dreams down the ghetto gutter.

[amitjoey]

VISA Bulletin OUT

EB1 INDIA: CURRENT
EB2 INDIA: 01SEP 04
EB3 INDIA: 15 OCT 02

[gten]

a WTF moment!

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

[jnr]

Hi guys

I have a question in the Demand data regarding the "Cumulative Demand Prior To". For India till Jan 1 2007 its 1350 and till Jan 1 2008 its 5500. So does the 5500 include the 1350 number too?

Thank you

[sircaustic]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

Teddy,
My PD is March 2007. After reviewing the shocking Oct 2012 Bulletin, what's your best guesstimate on when my PD would be current?
Thanks,

[staln]

read on a forum on sending flowers to protest.

Its time to show our protest. I think its a good idea to show our frustration time and again.

[pappu]

read on a forum on sending flowers to protest.

Its time to show our protest. I think its a good idea to show our frustration time and again.

It is out of misinformation or lack of understanding of the cause of VB people are saying that. When there are not enough visas available for the next month, no amount of sending flowers or leaves will make the bulletin go forward. If we want VB move forward then HR3012 is the only easiest option right now.

[indrachat_75]

It is out of misinformation or lack of understanding of the cause of VB people are saying that. When there are not enough visas available for the next month, no amount of sending flowers or leaves will make the bulletin go forward. If we want VB move forward then HR3012 is the only easiest option right now.

Agreed. Time for everyone to support HR3012. All on board... Booyah

[pattangi]

hmmm

EB3 folks are porting their PDs to EB2....hence this backward movement. Once they clear these early PDs...we should see forward movement

[GCNeophyte]

Teddy,
My PD is March 2007. After reviewing the shocking Oct 2012 Bulletin, what's your best guesstimate on when my PD would be current?
Thanks,

Just incase if any of you missed to look in Jun 2012 VB.. they already indicated this for EB2 -I/C.. see this for reference, it will not be any positive news for Eb2 until Spring 2013

Source: Visa Bulletin For June 2012 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5712.html)

D. CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY IS UNAVAILABLE

Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.

Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

[seetheavatar]

ALL EXPERTS ARE GOOD FOR NOTHING, THE TRUTH IS NO ONE KNOWS HOW THIS SYSTEM WORKS, NOW GO AND DELETE THIS MESSAGE AND BAN ME IF YOU WANT, WHAT ELSE YOU CAN DO ??? :mad:
This is totally uncalled for and the guys don't deserve it. They called is prediction and didnt say that it is what exactly going to happen. Please give respect to the guys.

[tammman]

Have similar kinda q...if I have a PD of Dec2005 do we have any chance by dec 2012?
I'm planning on vacation to INDIA and wasnt sure if this would have any adverse affect on GC?
Would appreciate any thoughts !

[worldforce]

Even if HR 3012 becomes law of the land today, the possibility of PD Dec 2005 becoming current by December 2012 is slim to none. Don't let anticipation impact your vacation. Go ahead with your plan and enjoy your vacation :)


Have similar kinda q...if I have a PD of Dec2005 do we have any chance by dec 2012?
I'm planning on vacation to INDIA and wasnt sure if this would have any adverse affect on GC?
Would appreciate any thoughts !

[baangdus]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

Porting may or may not be that heavy. From latest pending inventory, there are some 300 numbers pending before Oct 04. So it may be possible that USCIS is going by available numbers for per country limit and hence playing it safe till they see any spill over sometime mid year. If that is the case we will continue to see gradual increase in EB2 I dates till it hit July 07 date again in few months. Than it may get stalled depending on spill over and/or porting affects.

[gc_check]

Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.

Looks like porting is happening heavily. I know various numbers have been crunched already and we all know there is not enough visas available for certain countries at time time and hence this slow movement. Just looking at the I-485 Inventory from 05/03/2012 (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2005-03-12.pdf).. The pending I-485's for India prior to 2004 was about 350+. This group for EB2 prior to 04 was current since FY10 (Oct '09). The new additions with earlier PD for this category mostly likely comes due to porting. Also the count for porting is hard to estimate and until an I-140 is filed with request to PORT PD and approved, it does not show up in demand. Also from people I know who ported and got GC this year, these get an RFE for I-485 asking which I-140 job they are working and EVL ,etc.. before their case approve. So this demand is hidden until the actual I-485 approval. It will be interesting to see how the new I-485 Inventory due this month, if the pattern is followed. The EB3 number though very little, still seems to reduce over time. Also these folks usually have dependents and they consume numbers too. So if for example, 300+ people port, they easily can consume 700+ visa numbers. Although we can crunch all these numbers
and do what ever it takes, there is no solution that will address the problem immediately. The demand and supply is not proportional in this case for some people who belong to certain countries. Only congress can fix this and that is the only solution available. We just need to work with the core on the action items they have. The longer EB2 is taking to move, the porting will increase. Though many EB3 are stuck with not being able to port, these people have survived here for more than a decade. Some even 15 or more years. There are just hanging on to the jobs as long they can, but if forced out, with the years of experience and contact,, they would move on and explore to port, if they switch job. We will know sooner or later.

[vdlrao]

Legal servitude extended, this is a wake up call for me, actually a good thing for me, time to head back,time to flush the green card dreams down the ghetto gutter.

Waiting all the prime time of life (25 to 35 age) for one thing called Green Card.

[gaz]

Waiting all the prime time of life (25 to 35 age) for one thing called Green Card.

life goes on - with or without green card.. would life really be that different with a green card? don't think so :)

[sep_2011_PD]

it would be different for me since i am on a H4. and this is the prime work time for me

[moonrah]

life goes on - with or without green card.. would life really be that different with a green card? don't think so :)

Not sure about lot of people, but for me it would certainly be different. There are some ideas I want to implement which is not possible without having to secure five year stay in US.

[pattangi]

Feel sorry for EB3 folks waiting since 2003....they should all port to EB2 and get out of this mess. i think EB3 porting to EB2 is widely accepted by USCIS without any issues...heard good things on this process.

[insider]

Would you know approximately by when this category and priority date can become current?

P.S. After a certain time (e.g. a decade or more of working in the US) GC doesnt matter for career related aspects (that boat has already sailed by). However it does remove nuisance value of having to prove your (barely legal) status for minor things (e.g. a driver's license).

If you are young and new to the US, having a GC (accompanied by skill) can dramatically improve your career trajectory (over being on an H1B).

[manchala]

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum16-iv-agenda-and-legislative-updates/3093449-action-item-call-senate-to-pass-h-r-3012-now.html

please partificipate in action items....

[racoon786]

Just incase if any of you missed to look in Jun 2012 VB.. they already indicated this for EB2 -I/C.. see this for reference, it will not be any positive news for Eb2 until Spring 2013

Source: Visa Bulletin For June 2012 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5712.html)

D. CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY IS UNAVAILABLE

Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.

Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

I don't think this will happen by spring 2013, if you look at the latest demand data of 31K for EB2-I prior to Jan 1, 2012. It might not even cross Jan 1, 2009 in this fiscal; unless I am totall looking at this numbers the wrong way. [http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf]

[hello]

I don't think this will happen by spring 2013, if you look at the latest demand data of 31K for EB2-I prior to Jan 1, 2012. It might not even cross Jan 1, 2009 in this fiscal; unless I am totall looking at this numbers the wrong way. [http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf]
Pls call your Sen that is more important than predictions:)

[vdlrao]

If there's no legislation change, then EB2 I/C and EB3 I/C would be at the same Priority Date in next 2 to 3 years.

[rajchadha]

If there's no legislation change, then EB2 I/C and EB3 I/C would be at the same Priority Date in next 2 to 3 years.
Vdlrao
You are the most postive person I know about Eb2 india/china fate...Dont scare me with this kind of statements over and over again----and just for the record I called MI Senators yestreday and today and also made two of my friends do the same.

[krishmunn]

Feel sorry for EB3 folks waiting since 2003....they should all port to EB2 and get out of this mess. i think EB3 porting to EB2 is widely accepted by USCIS without any issues...heard good things on this process.

If all EB3 ports to EB2, EB2 will be in same position as EB3. From my old posts you will notice I am not against porting. But please talk sense. Not all EB3 are eligible to port.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

[The WalL]

Teddy - There is a very dense zone in EB2 just before Summer-Fall 2008 (July 2008 - Dec 2008) and after Spring 2010 (Mar 2010). If EB2-I hits the dates you think by end of the year, then it pretty much looks like EB2-I will go through a similar crawl that EB3 is experiencing right now. Though HR 3012 and HR 6429 will change all this if passed, the hopes are dimming with each passing day. I'm trying to remain optimistic, but the reality is EB2-I may have some EB3 like suffering not long from now.

[vdlrao]

EB3 I/C and EB2 I/C wil be at the same year with in 3 years with out a legislation change. This is because of
(1)Lot of porting from EB3 to EB2, which is not difficult.
(2)Most of the new applications being filed in EB2 than in EB3.

I am pretty confident, with out any legislation change EB2 I/C is as pathetic as EB3 I/C with in 3 years. So accustom to wait and see the bulletin after bulletin, I know the pain in that, if not ready take up the action items.

[PavanV]

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

Thanks for the guesstimate, i have been following the immigration process and it almost seems like the system is run by a bunch of clowns who escaped from third degree mental asylum, the point is the jokers themselves don't know whats going to happen next, one thing that is the least denominating factor in all this tomfoolery is that people who apply for green card in either EB3/EB2 will experience first hand what the natives of Africa had to bear for centuries here, not as bad, but equal in the sense of legal bondage.

[ascetic]

Thanks for the guesstimate, i have been following the immigration process and it almost seems like the system is run by a bunch of clowns who escaped from third degree mental asylum, the point is the jokers themselves don't know whats going to happen next, one thing that is the least denominating factor in all this tomfoolery is that people who apply for green card in either EB3/EB2 will experience first hand what the natives of Africa had to bear for centuries here, not as bad, but equal in the sense of legal bondage.

Teddy, the good cat, rarely "guesstimates". He works by the estimate. It is the CO who seems to be on the verge of guesstimating and reestimating. I bet CO will reestimate and reinstate the dates in 2007 - at least by March.

Tomfoolary aside, Thanks Teddy for a sane and thoughtful assessment.

"...the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
-TK

[greyhair]

This is useful demand data published by Department of State earlier this month. It seem to suggest the flow and demand of visas per country per category.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Interesting, the chart shows historical movement of cut off dates for India since 1992.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

The dates jumped back by 4 years in Oct-2005. Any one has insight into what happened all of a sudden back then?

[rssb]

May be Perm was introduced, and labor substitution was allowed across the 2 systems. So lots of old priority dates with quick multiple approvals.

[rtarar]

Back then , it did not matter you applied EB2 or EB3(lawyers advised for EB3 as it requires less scruitiny even though the position qualifies for EB2 or EB1) , it used to be current for all. Reason was that the labor process was very cumborsome.Labor used to to take the majority of time when compared to I-140 or I-485. And it can also be attributed to 245i cases(Amnesty was given to folks that were out to status in late 90's). These cases swarmed the labor pipeline. My labor took about 3.5 years to clear, even for that to happen 3 national labor backlog centers were created to approve the labor. The story goes on and on...

For the new folks in this process post (2007-2008) all this is irrelevant history as they care more about current. status But the problems that we face today have been in making for a long time. When I applied in 2004 dates retrogressed to 1997 for EB3 india(talk about that).

So unless you fix the system by visa recapture, or removing country limits, all the problems are here to stay and not going away.


This is useful demand data published by Department of State earlier this month. It seem to suggest the flow and demand of visas per country per category.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Interesting, the chart shows historical movement of cut off dates for India since 1992.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

The dates jumped back by 4 years in Oct-2005. Any one has insight into what happened all of a sudden back then?

[gk_2000]

EB3 I/C and EB2 I/C wil be at the same year with in 3 years with out a legislation change. This is because of
(1)Lot of porting from EB3 to EB2, which is not difficult.
(2)Most of the new applications being filed in EB2 than in EB3.

I am pretty confident, with out any legislation change EB2 I/C is as pathetic as EB3 I/C with in 3 years. So accustom to wait and see the bulletin after bulletin, I know the pain in that, if not ready take up the action items.

If we can estimate the proportion of EB3's that are porting then we can probably estimate new wait times for EB2. May I suggest you (and the other experts) to do that?
From latest demand data it looks like tens of thousands of EB3 are waiting in the wings, and if it is true that many EB3's were filed just because lawyers wanted to make case easy, then EB2's shouldn't really be sleeping well at night

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

[rdevender]

Predictions are based on the pending inventory

Spill Over Calcualtions

Expected Spill over from EB1

if you look at the pending inventory for any given month the max number of pending 1-485 applications is around 2000,so I'm expecting around 20000 visa numbers to EB2.

Expected Spill over from EB2

In Eb2 if you look at the inventory except India,china the number of pending I-485 applications is 1000 per month that comes to around 12000 per year.
if you add 6000(India & china max usage) that would be a total of 18000
In EB2 we can get a spill over of around 15000-20000
Now the total spill over would be 35000-40000.

In EB2 only India is backlogged , China's pending i-485 applications are pretty much in decent shape, assuming all/most of the spill over will be used by India


My prediction by the end of the year(Sep 2013) the dates in EB2I would move around between jun 2009 to Dec 2009


Optimistic Dec 2009
Pessimistic Jun 2009


All the predictions are based on pending I-485 inventory

USCIS - Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

[shouldIwait]

Predictions are based on the pending inventory

Spill Over Calcualtions

Expected Spill over from EB1

if you look at the pending inventory for any given month the max number of pending 1-485 applications is around 2000,so I'm expecting around 20000 visa numbers to EB2.

Expected Spill over from EB2

In Eb2 if you look at the inventory except India,china the number of pending I-485 applications is 1000 per month that comes to around 12000 per year.
if you add 6000(India & china max usage) that would be a total of 18000
In EB2 we can get a spill over of around 15000-20000
Now the total spill over would be 35000-40000.

In EB2 only India is backlogged , China's pending i-485 applications are pretty much in decent shape, assuming all/most of the spill over will be used by India


My prediction by the end of the year(Sep 2013) the dates in EB2I would move around between jun 2009 to Dec 2009


Optimistic Dec 2009
Pessimistic Jun 2009


All the predictions are based on pending I-485 inventory

USCIS - Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

Unfortunately your analysis is less prediction and more wishful thinking. The basis on which you are estimating demand is flawed or rather oversimplification of the situation.
The last inventory of May 3, 2012 was for last year's quota for EB1 and EB2-ROW. This year is a new ballgame. Also, last year EB1 had Kazarian memo impact so this year utilization is gonna pick up. So your very linear assumption of demand may not be true. We'll know for sure only in spring of 2013 as Teddy rightfully said. If they release another inventory this month it'll help shed some light though.

[rdevender]

if it was wishful thinking then I would have predicted it up to April 2009 not June/Dec 2009

[StillonH1B]

Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.

Are the spill overs not quarterly? If yes what can we expect in January bulletin.

[Rb_newsletter]

Are the spill overs not quarterly? If yes what can we expect in January bulletin.

See Pappu's reply in other thread.

Spillovers happens every quarter.
However last year eb2 dates were advanced early in the quarters based on a different approximations that we have already discussed in the old threads. This year it will be different for eb2 one cannot expect sudden jumps beyond the dates that it reached last year. There is enough pipeline now to process and those that could not file 485 last year in eb2 may have to wait.

[samuelA]

@Teddy @Pappu

You are guys people say here to talk to-

Please tell everyone here how and when (what date) will the spillover kick in for this year and why ? (in your opinion)

@Pappu, I understand that you commented before on this but if you can be more elaborate and specific with dates,that would be v useful

[GCHope2011]

@Teddy @Pappu

You are guys people say here to talk to-

Please tell everyone here how and when (what date) will the spillover kick in for this year and why ? (in your opinion)

@Pappu, I understand that you commented before on this but if you can be more elaborate and specific with dates,that would be v useful
Care to update your profile information before you put any more "asks"?

[TeddyKoochu]

Some people have pointed out that the demand data did reduce by 250 however the dates did not move. The only explanation is that the agencies still feel that 250 porting cases can still come up before Sep 2004 with new porting related i140's being approved and interfiling. So essentially its a case of a moving target with the demand data reduction not being able to truly represent the situation. Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement) what we saw last year was an exception as an inventory had to be created. The big silver lining of this bulletin is that EB2 ROW is now current. Porting has not really increased however last year probably only 50% porting cases saw approval due to dates going to unavailable.

[Rb_newsletter]

Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement)


If quarter yearly spill over happens as Pappu said, then we should see a small jump in Dec/Jan bulletin.

[sonline]

See some good stats on immigrants success.

How Indians defied gravity and achieved success in Silicon Valley | VentureBeat (http://venturebeat.com/2012/10/15/how-indians-defied-gravity-and-achieved-success-in-silicon-valley/)

[The WalL]

Spillovers are at the end of each quarter in DEC, MAR, JUNE and SEP.

I agree thath EB2-ROW being C is indeed good news as there is a chance of picking up some numbers as soon as next month's bulletin. What will be interesting is to see an updated inventory data. The last two we saw were still work in progress as far as EB2 was concerned as there were cases rolling in. An updated inventory now would provide a much clearer picture on what the EB2 rate of consumption can look like over the course of this year and perhaps the next.

[shouldIwait]

Teddy,

Have you had a look at the latest PERM statistics? Here's the link -->
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf

Churning these numbers very conservatively I don't get much spillover occuring for this year.

Here are my assumptions for this analysis :-
1. About 1 in 3 of all India/China applications is EB-1 which in reality might be lower.
2. About 80% of all applications currently in process will ultimately get approved. This is again conservative looking at denial/withdrawl rate.
3. Less than Bachelor's and Other qualifications are definitely EB-3

Total certified - 51,600 + 80% of 23,700 = approx 70K

Out of these 70K about 10% are EB3, which leaves us with 63K. Out of these 62% are India/China but 1 in 3, or 20% are from India/China EB1 and 10% India/China EB3 which we have already removed in previous step. That leaves us with net 32% which are India/China EB2.
32% of 63K = approx. 20K

So, total of all EB1 + EB2-ROW could be 63K - 20K = 43K

Multiplying this by our established family multiplier of 2.2 = approx. 95K

It takes around 9 months for categories that are current to go from approved PERM to approved I-485. So, extrapolating the above nos. for one more quarter until end of Dec. 2012, we get about 119K. We can safely assume that at-least 10K net (which includes family members) will get dropped at I-140 and I-485 stages (demand destruction). With about 109K being demanded by EB1 and EB2-ROW which have a combined total quota of 80K it doesn't look like that there is going to be any spillover left even if my assumptions above were liberal instead of conservative.

[gc_on_demand]

If quarter yearly spill over happens as Pappu said, then we should see a small jump in Dec/Jan bulletin.

Pappu has no idea on calculation. He is good at advocacy not data calculation. As teddy said date will move in April may onwards.

[baangdus]

[QUOTE=shouldIwait;3561783]Teddy,

Have you had a look at the latest PERM statistics? Here's the link -->
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf

QUOTE]

Why do we always have to churn numbers to suit our predictions? PERM data is a simple number; i.e. number of PERMs certified between Oct ’11 and Sep ’12 are 51,600. Advance degree (EB1 and EB2) are 27,000.
It does not mean 1 out of 3 are EB1 I/C. It does not mean all 51,000 will turn to I-485 in current fiscal year. Some of them would have been in demand data for last year as EB1 was always current and EB2 ROW was current most of last year. Even if you consider all 27,000 to be EB1 and EB2 ROW, that only counts to about 55k EB1 and EB2 ROW. No one knows if even these numbers make any sense in today’s world.
Wait for pending inventory numbers before making any knowledgeable predictions.

[The WalL]

Teddy,

Have you had a look at the latest PERM statistics? Here's the link -->
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf

Churning these numbers very conservatively I don't get much spillover occuring for this year.

Here are my assumptions for this analysis :-
1. About 1 in 3 of all India/China applications is EB-1 which in reality might be lower.
2. About 80% of all applications currently in process will ultimately get approved. This is again conservative looking at denial/withdrawl rate.
3. Less than Bachelor's and Other qualifications are definitely EB-3

Total certified - 51,600 + 80% of 23,700 = approx 70K

Out of these 70K about 10% are EB3, which leaves us with 63K. Out of these 62% are India/China but 1 in 3, or 20% are from India/China EB1 and 10% India/China EB3 which we have already removed in previous step. That leaves us with net 32% which are India/China EB2.
32% of 63K = approx. 20K

So, total of all EB1 + EB2-ROW could be 63K - 20K = 43K

Multiplying this by our established family multiplier of 2.2 = approx. 95K

It takes around 9 months for categories that are current to go from approved PERM to approved I-485. So, extrapolating the above nos. for one more quarter until end of Dec. 2012, we get about 119K. We can safely assume that at-least 10K net (which includes family members) will get dropped at I-140 and I-485 stages (demand destruction). With about 109K being demanded by EB1 and EB2-ROW which have a combined total quota of 80K it doesn't look like that there is going to be any spillover left even if my assumptions above were liberal instead of conservative.

I'm confused by EB1 usage here...in your calculations you're using EB1 all over the place above. The PERM data you're using is for labor certification only. EB1 process does not require filing for PERM...you directly apply for I-140 and I-485 concurrently (since PD is C) [see link below] is never captured by DoL stats anywhere. So anyone applying for PERM will be in EB2 (non-NIW) or EB3. No other EB group requires labor certification or has the need to go to DoL for the process.

USCIS - Permanent Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

[shouldIwait]

[QUOTE=shouldIwait;3561783]Teddy,

Have you had a look at the latest PERM statistics? Here's the link -->
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/perm_labor_certification.pdf

QUOTE]

Why do we always have to churn numbers to suit our predictions? PERM data is a simple number; i.e. number of PERMs certified between Oct ’11 and Sep ’12 are 51,600. Advance degree (EB1 and EB2) are 27,000.
It does not mean 1 out of 3 are EB1 I/C. It does not mean all 51,000 will turn to I-485 in current fiscal year. Some of them would have been in demand data for last year as EB1 was always current and EB2 ROW was current most of last year. Even if you consider all 27,000 to be EB1 and EB2 ROW, that only counts to about 55k EB1 and EB2 ROW. No one knows if even these numbers make any sense in today’s world.
Wait for pending inventory numbers before making any knowledgeable predictions.

There are errors in my calculation related to EB1 but that doesn't mean that other logic used is completely faulty. You're right that not all will turn into I-485 this year and some could've got the GC in last year itself but as I said I was assuming worst case due to lack of data. Also note that Advanced Degree doesn't automatically equal EB1/2. Also you've ignored remainder of the calculation without counteracting on the specifics.

[shouldIwait]

I'm confused by EB1 usage here...in your calculations you're using EB1 all over the place above. The PERM data you're using is for labor certification only. EB1 process does not require filing for PERM...you directly apply for I-140 and I-485 concurrently (since PD is C) [see link below] is never captured by DoL stats anywhere. So anyone applying for PERM will be in EB2 (non-NIW) or EB3. No other EB group requires labor certification or has the need to go to DoL for the process.

USCIS - Permanent Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

My bad. I was wrong. Will re-do unless someone else takes it up before me.

[shouldIwait]

Total certified - 51,600 + 80% of 23,700 = approx 70K

Out of these 70K about 25% are EB3 (this is the ratio we have used in past from earlier years), which leaves us with 52.5K EB2. Out of these 62% are India/China i.e. about 32.5. Which leaves us with about 20K of EB2-ROW.
Multiplying this by our established family multiplier of 2.2 = 44K
This again means that we won't have much spillover from EB2-ROW. Of-course there is a lot of margin of error in this calculation due to the unknowns involved but the trend seems to point towards fairly high demand.

[The WalL]

I'm not concerned too much by the PERM numbers or where they fall on the EB spectrum. They seem to be fairly in line with the older data. If 75% - 80% of this converts to new demand (the rest being EB3 porting + duplicate filers), then you're only looking at a new inventory of 70k-80k from the last fiscal year which sounds reasonable.

[shouldIwait]

I'm not concerned too much by the PERM numbers or where they fall on the EB spectrum. They seem to be fairly in line with the older data. If 75% - 80% of this converts to new demand (the rest being EB3 porting + duplicate filers), then you're only looking at a new inventory of 70k-80k from the last fiscal year which sounds reasonable.

Porting is nowhere near your assumption. Simply looking at demand data changes month-to-month one can figure that.

I just compared my earlier PERM data analysis numbers with latest I-485 inventory released in May 2012. My earlier PERM analysis was based upon full PERM disclosure data and not the summary report that I linked to, in earlier post and hence it is fairly accurate as it takes into account even the priority date that
et. Comparing what was expected from PERM data to actual I-485 inventory that got filed for entire year 2009, I get a demand destruction of 46%.
Year 2009 is a good example because no EB2-I has been issued a GC in that year yet (unlike 2008), so the I-485 inventory is fairly accurate and has entire totals.

If we further assume that all of the I-485 inventory for 2009 has been processed and gotten into monthly demand data. Also assuming any denials that had to happen have already happened or are otherwise stuck into RFE cycle, we get a further demand destruction of 6% at that stage, taking the net destruction to be 52%.

Considering the above a general demand destruction of 50% would be safe to assume. But the problem is that this figure is based upon India calculation. To effectively calculate expected spillover we need to perform the same for ROW for which we don't have sufficient data because I-485 inventory is very dynamic due to continuous issuing of GC's.

If there is similar demand destruction for EB2-ROW too, we might get 15K spillover from them.

[gc_soon]

Which leaves us with about 20K of EB2-ROW.
Multiplying this by our established family multiplier of 2.2 = 44K

The family multiplier for India and ROW might be different, since Indians need to wait longer to file for I485, the family factor maybe higher. Many ROWers may be single while filing. I feel this assumption has a good chance of being incorrect in your calculation.
Otherwise your numbers looks good.

[hiralal]

The family multiplier for India and ROW might be different, since Indians need to wait longer to file for I485, the family factor maybe higher. Many ROWers may be single while filing. I feel this assumption has a good chance of being incorrect in your calculation.
Otherwise your numbers looks good. just a quick question ..how many of you think that the dates are not moving because of the dream act ? my guess is that USCIS is flooded by petitions and they are not moving the dates ...the dates will probably move in the last quarter of 2013 ?

[Rilacharles]

New here,nice to see you.

[shouldIwait]

just a quick question ..how many of you think that the dates are not moving because of the dream act ? my guess is that USCIS is flooded by petitions and they are not moving the dates ...the dates will probably move in the last quarter of 2013 ?

USCIS already has a pipeline of 33k applications. Even though Dream fix is adding to their workload it shouldn't cause unusual delay in 485 approvals as that should be minimal work at this stage due to preadjucations.

[shouldIwait]

The family multiplier for India and ROW might be different, since Indians need to wait longer to file for I485, the family factor maybe higher. Many ROWers may be single while filing. I feel this assumption has a good chance of being incorrect in your calculation.
Otherwise your numbers looks good.

You may be right. here's what I found out. I compared historical data for EB2 ROW, PERM vs. final GC's issued in the next year. So comparing PERM data for 2008 with GC issuances for 2009 as it takes time for 140 and 485 approvals. What I got was a ratio of 1.23 which is a combined multiplier for family as well as demand destruction. Also, I figured that adding 80% of 23,700 may not be correct. If I'm adding that demand I should also substract any demand that got satisfied within tha same year. Since we don't have that data it's best to simply not add.

So, revising my calculation again I get about 18k demand from EB2 Row which translates to around 17k of spillover from EB2 ROW which seems fairly plausible and in line with past trends.

[samuelA]

that kind of spillover brings PD to ? by ?

[shouldIwait]

that kind of spillover brings PD to ? by ?

Just the EB2 ROW spillover is only part of the story but most significant part nevertheless.There is EB-1, EB-4 and EB-5 spillover that has no way of estimation currently without additional data being released, I.e. either 485 inventory or 140 approval rate. Although all of those spillovers are not expected to be major but we cannot be sure. As an example, if net spillover received by EB2-I is 23k the PD would stand in May 2009. That is a calculation I did for myself based upon last 485 inventory released in May 2012. A fresh inventory report is already due from USCIS.

[The WalL]

Just the EB2 ROW spillover is only part of the story but most significant part nevertheless.There is EB-1, EB-4 and EB-5 spillover that has no way of estimation currently without additional data being released, I.e. either 485 inventory or 140 approval rate. Although all of those spillovers are not expected to be major but we cannot be sure. As an example, if net spillover received by EB2-I is 23k the PD would stand in May 2009. That is a calculation I did for myself based upon last 485 inventory released in May 2012. A fresh inventory report is already due from USCIS.

We should see a total Spillover of about 30k numbers (from EB1,4,5 and EB2-ROW) this year into EB2-IC for dates to move into 2009. The May inventory report was still work in progress as it hadnt captured filings from May bulletin. And I doubt USCIS will release another inventory update before the new year. They might just update in Jan 2013 as they have a convenient excuse of DACA paperwork to process right now.

[shouldIwait]

We should see a total Spillover of about 30k numbers (from EB1,4,5 and EB2-ROW) this year into EB2-IC for dates to move into 2009. The May inventory report was still work in progress as it hadnt captured filings from May bulletin. And I doubt USCIS will release another inventory update before the new year. They might just update in Jan 2013 as they have a convenient excuse of DACA paperwork to process right now.

Agree on all but one point. May 485 inventory was not accurate just for the 2010 portion of filings not all filings in general. For my calculation I didn't consider that part. Technically it's possible for late filing by 2009 people too but I don't think a significant no. would've taken the risk of waiting that long. If demand data remains stable next month we can be sure of that. Also, your net spillover no. is just a ballpark guess but we are about calculations here.

[sandyn16]

Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (October 24, 2012) (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/10/24/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-24-2012/)

'For EB-2 India Mr. Oppenheim indicated that very little or no movement is expected over the next months. The reason is simply the huge demand of EB-2 cases and the very small number of visa numbers available in this category. The high demand appears to be caused by the high number of I-485 cases filed by EB-2 applicants (and their family members) earlier this year and also the very high number of EB-3 India applicants who are now porting into EB-2 India. Mr. Oppenheim suggested almost no movement in EB-2 India with an absolutely best case scenario of having a cutoff date of late 2007 or early 2008 by the end of the fiscal year.'

[fatboysam]

Do you think he wud have considered spillovers into this equation ?

[np5337]

HR 3012 is the only way to get things done.

[greendream26]

Did anyone see this??

Immigration Legislation in the Lame Duck Session? Yes | The Metropolitan Corporate Counsel (http://www.metrocorpcounsel.com/articles/21083/immigration-legislation-lame-duck-session-yes)

[hx82]

HR 3012 is the only way to get things done.

I Second that. 3012 is the only way out of this mess.

[fatboysam]

G mara gaya hr3012

[bibliophile2020]

Nothing will be sufficient for EB3I, only thing that would help is amnesty.

[gk_2000]

Nothing will be sufficient for EB3I, only thing that would help is amnesty.

I am not sure the usage of the word "amnesty" will be correct for EB3. Quite nonsensical

[The WalL]

Agree on all but one point. May 485 inventory was not accurate just for the 2010 portion of filings not all filings in general. For my calculation I didn't consider that part. Technically it's possible for late filing by 2009 people too but I don't think a significant no. would've taken the risk of waiting that long. If demand data remains stable next month we can be sure of that. Also, your net spillover no. is just a ballpark guess but we are about calculations here.

Based on CO's latest comments, porting is far more significant than you're considering. I'm starting to think that 100/month number I've been using for porting is too low.

[shouldIwait]

Based on CO's latest comments, porting is far more significant than you're considering. I'm starting to think that 100/month number I've been using for porting is too low.

CO has made those comments earlier too and it has not turned out to be very significant. Remember that CO's comments are bound by legality surrounding the subject. So it might be "high" relative to 2800 annual quota but not high relative to 20k that is annually consumed by EB2-I.

[Fairnessforall]

I seem to think that Charles Opp is talking numbers in light of 2800 annual visa numbers available. However, it seems that he may wait until 4rth quarter to account for spill over so as to advance the date. That is bad for those with PD of 2005/2006. On the top of existing wait they have to wait for another 8 months now.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

[shouldIwait]

I seem to think that Charles Opp is talking numbers in light of 2800 annual visa numbers available. However, it seems that he may wait until 4rth quarter to account for spill over so as to advance the date. That is bad for those with PD of 2005/2006. On the top of existing wait they have to wait for another 8 months now.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

You are right, I think. Also with regard to annual assignment bit of luck can make a huge difference like that guy on whose PD was last day of 2008 and got the cards in last years quota.

[anfu02]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/visabulletin_december2012.pdf

EB2-I - 01SEP04 and EB2-C 22OCT07

[nmdial]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Analysis by Gurus?

[The WalL]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Analysis by Gurus?

On the EB2-I front, its a bittersweet situation. Whereas last month DD showed Demand upto JAN-2007 to be 1100, now its up to 1300. Overall, EB2-I DD went up by 2100...and its going up across every split (200 prior to 2007-JAN, 400 in 2007, 500 in 2008, 275 in 2009 and 325 upto 2010-MAY). Thats the bad news.

The good news is that EB2-ROW DD piled up late last year is almost all gone. EB-C is not adding huge numbers to the demand (up by 125 over last month). With the election uncertainty behind, I think the EB2-I PD should move into mid/late-2006 by middle of winter. At the very least by the of end fiscal-2012, PD will move to early-2008. Obviously, there are still very many variables but I'm taking a fairly optimistic view here.

[gc_on_demand]

On the EB2-I front, its a bittersweet situation. Whereas last month DD showed Demand upto JAN-2007 to be 1100, now its up to 1300. Overall, EB2-I DD went up by 2100...and its going up across every split (200 prior to 2007-JAN, 400 in 2007, 500 in 2008, 275 in 2009 and 325 upto 2010-MAY). Thats the bad news.

The good news is that EB2-ROW DD piled up late last year is almost all gone. EB-C is not adding huge numbers to the demand (up by 125 over last month). With the election uncertainty behind, I think the EB2-I PD should move into mid/late-2006 by middle of winter. At the very least by the of end fiscal-2012, PD will move to early-2008. Obviously, there are still very many variables but I'm taking a fairly optimistic view here.

from my exp in past it will be june 2008 by sep 2013.

[soumeeram]

Hi,

My priority date is Oct 23rd 2004 in EB2-India. Can the Gurus please let me know when can I expect my date to become Current?

My EB3 to EB2 Porting (EB2 I-140 approval) was succesfully done in March this year. But ever since the dates have been retrogressed. It is very unfortunate to miss the boat by couple of months early this year.

Thank you!

[chtummala]

Hi,

My priority date is Oct 23rd 2004 in EB2-India. Can the Gurus please let me know when can I expect my date to become Current?

My EB3 to EB2 Porting (EB2 I-140 approval) was succesfully done in March this year. But ever since the dates have been retrogressed. It is very unfortunate to miss the boat by couple of months early this year.

Thank you!
as of now it is unknown ..
we can estimate it by 485 inventory report or demand data ..

[katta]

Please take some time out to view this petition and sign it. Would be very helpful if you could forward this to others as well and get 25,000 signatures before Dec 1st, 2012.

Any person applying for Greencard (GC), or in the process of GC, or in the final stage (I-140 approved) and waiting for their priority date to get current, all of us and even people who would be applying for GC in the future, this petition might be very helpful in allowing us to file for EAD as soon as I-140 is approved so that we can continue working without any extra stress of waiting for our priority date to get current and renewing our H1B status every year(s).

Greatly appreciate it if you could spread the word out and sign it.

For signing it please click on the link below, it will take you to the petition page on the White-house.gov web page, there if you do not already have an account please create one ( a very simple process of just signing up for free) and then sign the petition.

Short URL: http://wh.gov/98wq

Share this URL: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval/FBSVvfQh

Done. Thx for posting this. I think this should be on seperate thread so everone gets attension. IV can help to spun a high priority thread on the forum.

[greendream26]

I have signed it and asked around 20-30 of my friends to sign it too.......

[Fairnessforall]

Gurus,

Any estimate of spillover benefit for EB2 I/C this quarter?

Wonder if the demand data can tell anything.

Anxious to hear.

[StillonH1B]

Please take some time out to view this petition and sign it. Would be very helpful if you could forward this to others as well and get 25,000 signatures before Dec 1st, 2012.

Any person applying for Greencard (GC), or in the process of GC, or in the final stage (I-140 approved) and waiting for their priority date to get current, all of us and even people who would be applying for GC in the future, this petition might be very helpful in allowing us to file for EAD as soon as I-140 is approved so that we can continue working without any extra stress of waiting for our priority date to get current and renewing our H1B status every year(s).

Greatly appreciate it if you could spread the word out and sign it.

For signing it please click on the link below, it will take you to the petition page on the White-house.gov web page, there if you do not already have an account please create one ( a very simple process of just signing up for free) and then sign the petition.

Short URL: http://wh.gov/98wq

Share this URL: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval/FBSVvfQh

Just Signed the petition and forwarded to all my friends

[Fairnessforall]

Signed.

[gc_check]

Looks like USCIS finally published the website with "I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (PDF file - updated October 4, 2012) ( PDF)" yesterday.

I-485 Inventory as of Oct '12 (http://www.uscis.gov/vgn-ext-templating/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM10000008 2ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

Some more data to chew on, if we can find any new trends based on it... though looks almosy same for me inline with past discussions.

[shouldIwait]

Looks like USCIS finally published the website with "I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (PDF file - updated October 4, 2012) ( PDF)" yesterday.

I-485 Inventory as of Oct '12 (http://www.uscis.gov/vgn-ext-templating/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM10000008 2ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

Some more data to chew on, if we can find any new trends based on it... though looks almosy same for me inline with past discussions.

From the last inventory both 2008 and 2009 numbers for EB2-I have increased somewhat (approx 5%). These are possibly the late filers towards the end of the filing window. Comparing EB3-I numbers reduction for the not-current years and also putting in context of EB2-I number increases for the same years like say 2006, it appears that porting is happening (which we all know) but the numbers aren't significant. Ranging from 200 to 500 per year from 2003-2006. Net porting impact for this year can be assumed to be around 2k to 3k which is in-line with past estimates.

[kiran_pathuri]

Comparing the inventory for EB3 in 2011 October and 2012 October revelas some porting is happening.

2003 -> 283
2004 --> 779
2005 --> 323
2006 --> 693
2007 --> 103
-------------------
Total 2181

However, we do not know how much porting is happening after 2007 for sure. I doubt the numbers will be big from 2008 to 2010 as most people in EB3 with priority dates before 2007 August atleast have an EAD. My guess is around another 2K from late 2007 to 2010. So around 4K total portings from EB3 to EB2.

We need a spill over of atleast 7000 for the dates in EB2 to move to 2008 by October 2013. If the spill over is around 15K, then the dates may move to middle of 2008 by October 2013.

[shouldIwait]

Gauging number utilization trend for EB2-ROW and EB-1 is difficult because of randomness of data from month to month. But the good thing is that EB2-ROW had a cutoff date for several months and since this data is as of 10/4 when their dates were not current it should be a stable picture of utilization trend and not a moving target that it typically is. But due to sudden establishment of cutoff date for EB2-ROW for July bulletin everyone rushed to file 485 which is making the average data a little skewed towards the negative side.

So considering a monthly average utilization of 1200 for the months after the inventory data i.e. from July 2012 to APR 2013 for EB2-ROW, we get 12k. To that add the 6k pending from 2011 and 7.2k pending from 2012, and we have 25.2k of total utilization for the year. That gives us a spillover of around 10k. This is worst case scenario because as I highlighted above the data is negatively skewed and utilization is expected to be lesser. Also note that I count only upto April because May onwards candidates are likely to rollover to next years quota because it takes around 4-5 months to approve 485. And that is why DOS does spillover application during last quarter.

Moving on to EB-1, since the dates have always been current it's more of a moving target but since it still takes 3-5 months to approve the concurrently filed 140-485, the data from last few months of 2012 fiscal year is likely to be accurate. As a worst case scenario I think the average could be around 1750 per month for the remaining months from Sep 2012 to Apr 2012 totaling to 14k. Adding already pending demand of around 12k, we have total utilization of 26k, resulting in 14k net spillover. In this calculation, I-140 denials haven't been accounted for which DO happen. Making this again a worst case scenario.

So a total SOFAD of around 24k minus the 2k porting calculated above. 22k spillover should land EB2-I at the end of 2008 contrary to CO's recent comments. Another assumption I've made is zero spillover from EB4 & 5. A best case scenario is not possible to estimate with any accuracy but a ballpark guess could be around March 2009 and just wishful thinking of May 2009 (my date). Overall economic conditions remaining the same as they are now any of the trends estimated above are expected to hold.

[shouldIwait]

Comparing the inventory for EB3 in 2011 October and 2012 October revelas some porting is happening.

2003 -> 283
2004 --> 779
2005 --> 323
2006 --> 693
2007 --> 103
-------------------
Total 2181

However, we do not know how much porting is happening after 2007 for sure. I doubt the numbers will be big from 2008 to 2010 as most people in EB3 with priority dates before 2007 August atleast have an EAD. My guess is around another 2K from late 2007 to 2010. So around 4K total portings from EB3 to EB2.

We need a spill over of atleast 7000 for the dates in EB2 to move to 2008 by October 2013. If the spill over is around 15K, then the dates may move to middle of 2008 by October 2013.

The likelihood of people porting within 3 years of filing their original EB3 petition especially since dates are not current, is very low. Even if there is some porting it doesn't factor into our calculation for this year because dates are not expected to move beyond 2008 within this fiscal year for EB2-I. So I think 2K of net porting for this year is accurate with a worst case scenario of say 3k.

[The WalL]

Juxtaposing DD data from NOV bulletin vs the Pending Inv data...

Cumulative Data Prior To DD PINV Delta
1/1/2007 1100 1884 784
1/1/2008 5800 7026 1226
1/1/2009 21275 22923 1648
1/1/2010 33300 37122 3822
1/1/2012 37200 42373 5173

Still fairly large delta there...USCIS has a lot more applications it needs to complete adjudication on.

Porting of the order of 2,000 is significant. If 2,000 applications were ported in the last year when PD moved so much for nearly 5 months, then there is bound to be more now that PD has stalled out for the foreseeable future.

For 2003-2007 years, INV increased in the order of a couple hundred per year (which could reasonably be attributed to porting). One other note, numbers have jumped for 2008 and 2009 in the new report by ~1,000 for each year.

[shouldIwait]

Yes the comparison of DD versus 485 inventory does tell about work being in progress but as long as we use 485 inventory data for our calculations instead of DD, I think we are covered and DD doesn't matter as current 485 inventory is worst case scenario of demand.

2000 is significant porting or not is relative thing. Since it is in-line with past results I take the opinion that there is no significant change or jump as some people have claimed.

Movement of PD early in the year and porting isn't really correlated in the context of last year. Last year's movement was because of lack of inventory and DOS wanted another intake. Moreover this data is current as of 10/4 which suggests 2k porting which is already accounted for in inventory figures of EB2-I inventory figures. there is no reason for porting in next 8 months to be higher than that.

[bibliophile2020]

CONGRATULATIONS , more than 2 million views for this thread. If we could charge a buck per view...

[baangdus]

Not sure if I am missing something. With 18000 pending inventory for EB2 ROW and 14000 for EB1, how can it lead to 22k SOFAD? Even if we assume your conservative numbers of 12k new filing this year in both categories, it makes EB2 ROW 30000 and EB1 26000. But I would say, given the number of filing we see in last few months (esp EB2 ROW), it will be much more than 12000. Also porting delta from May and Oct reports shows about 2000 cases ported between this period. So porting is also picking up.
We may be looking for around 5-8k SOFAD, around +8000 from EB1, -5000 from porting and +5000 from EB5. And if EB2 ROW gets retrogressed for some reason, EB2 I is not getting anything.

[shouldIwait]

Not sure if I am missing something. With 18000 pending inventory for EB2 ROW and 14000 for EB1, how can it lead to 22k SOFAD? Even if we assume your conservative numbers of 12k new filing this year in both categories, it makes EB2 ROW 30000 and EB1 26000. But I would say, given the number of filing we see in last few months (esp EB2 ROW), it will be much more than 12000. Also porting delta from May and Oct reports shows about 2000 cases ported between this period. So porting is also picking up.
We may be looking for around 5-8k SOFAD, around +8000 from EB1, -5000 from porting and +5000 from EB5. And if EB2 ROW gets retrogressed for some reason, EB2 I is not getting anything.

Your nos. of pending inventory are flawed, check the report again. Also note that any pending inventory older than 2 years for any category that is current doesn't matter as they are cases stuck in RFE, audit etc. the real pending inventory is in my post above which is 12 k and 14k respectively. Also as I pointed out future demand until Apr-May 2013 only matters. After that it'll need to rollover into next year because of 485 processing times.

[baangdus]

Your nos. of pending inventory are flawed, check the report again. Also note that any pending inventory older than 2 years for any category that is current doesn't matter as they are cases stuck in RFE, audit etc. the real pending inventory is in my post above which is 12 k and 14k respectively. Also as I pointed out future demand until Apr-May 2013 only matters. After that it'll need to rollover into next year because of 485 processing times.
well what I am looking in pdf is 13388 on EB1 (2010-2012) and 16713 (2010-2012) on EB2 ROW-M-P. Also what I see is avg of 1500 per month demand on EB1 for last 4-5 months and 1500 per month on EB2 ROW-M-P, which makes it about 18000 for each. I tend to agree with your argument that only demand till end June/July may lead to visa numbers. Still no way near 22k you are saying.

[shouldIwait]

well what I am looking in pdf is 13388 on EB1 (2010-2012) and 16713 (2010-2012) on EB2 ROW-M-P. Also what I see is avg of 1500 per month demand on EB1 for last 4-5 months and 1500 per month on EB2 ROW-M-P, which makes it about 18000 for each. I tend to agree with your argument that only demand till end June/July may lead to visa numbers. Still no way near 22k you are saying.

I did not add Mexico and Philippines which increases demand by another 2k and reduces spillover proportionately(my mistake). Average utilization for EB2-ROW and EB1 is tricky. One needs to pick a month within the last 4-5 that has the highest value. As I said these are typically moving targets and all we can do is pick most stable month. For EB2-ROW, the very last month is an outlier because of sudden establishment of cutoff date. In spite of including it the avg is nowhere near 1500 for EB2-ROW (around 1300) but for EB1 it is ~1750. EB2-ROW avg needs to be multiplied by 10 but EB1 needs to be multiplied by only 7 plus 750.

So for EB2-ROW 16k existing plus 13k future is total 29k which leaves only 6k SOFAD. For EB1 13k existing and 13k future, totals 26k and gives 14k SOFAD. TOTAL being 20k. Subtracting 2k for future porting becomes 18k.

From the PERM nos. analysis that I posted earlier I think EB2-ROW SOFAD will be higher than 6k just going by past years trends.

[shouldIwait]

With regard to PERM data analysis that I initially performed in early 2011, this inventory validates the assumptions and estimation logic. Predicted demand for EB2-I for entire 2009 was 14,892 and it has turned out to be 14,199.

[Fairnessforall]

CONGRATULATIONS , more than 2 million views for this thread. If we could charge a buck per view...
IV leaders,
Wonder if there is a way to make certain threads "paid threads", where IV can charge a modest amount/user for access and use that money towards the benefit of skilled immigrant community.

There are so many great minds here, doing statistical analysis, number crunching etc. If everybody pitches one business idea in which IV can make money, pretty soon IV can have significant leverage on Capitol Hill.

IV core members (if you are listening): my 2 cents (the worth of which keeps dwindling by the day:)- is there a way to make a group of people that can invite revenue generating ideas and then screen them, present them to the core members. The ideas that are approved by the core can then be put into use. If I can be of any use in this regard, please feel free to draft me in.

[The WalL]

Jan 2013 Visa Bulletin is out...
Visa Bulletin For January 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5834.html)

No surprises...EB2-I has remained stuck while EB2-C has moved ~45 days. EB3-I has made another week's progress. Demand Data has not been released.

[nmdial]

Jan 2013 Visa Bulletin is out...
Visa Bulletin For January 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5834.html)

No surprises...EB2-I has remained stuck while EB2-C has moved ~45 days. EB3-I has made another week's progress. Demand Data has not been released.

Demand data is out: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[roni077]

EB3 -> EB2 porting seems to be slowing down somewhat.
If you take the "All pending EB2 before 2012" number from December demand data and subtract from the latest demand data, you get:
40,800 - 39,300 = 1500

If you do the same math for (Dec - Nov) and (Nov - Oct), you see it's (39,300 - 37,200) = 2,100 and (37,200 - 34,000) = 3,200.

So, the trend of porting is slowing down 3200 --> 2100 --> 1500 (Nov, Dec, Jan)

[spicy_guy]

EB3 -> EB2 porting seems to be slowing down somewhat.
If you take the "All pending EB2 before 2012" number from December demand data and subtract from the latest demand data, you get:
40,800 - 39,300 = 1500

If you do the same math for (Dec - Nov) and (Nov - Oct), you see it's (39,300 - 37,200) = 2,100 and (37,200 - 34,000) = 3,200.

So, the trend of porting is slowing down 3200 --> 2100 --> 1500 (Nov, Dec, Jan)

Though it is (seems to be)slowing down, proportionality, the EB3 dates are not moving up to take up the Ported numbers. Not sure USCIS is missing some math or they just want to move 1 or 2 weeks consistently regardless of Visa availability.

EB 3 I. royally screwed.. FACT! Not a rant.

[psagarn]

EB3 -> EB2 porting seems to be slowing down somewhat.
If you take the "All pending EB2 before 2012" number from December demand data and subtract from the latest demand data, you get:
40,800 - 39,300 = 1500

If you do the same math for (Dec - Nov) and (Nov - Oct), you see it's (39,300 - 37,200) = 2,100 and (37,200 - 34,000) = 3,200.

So, the trend of porting is slowing down 3200 --> 2100 --> 1500 (Nov, Dec, Jan)

Why would you use EB2 numbers to get the porting from EB3, you should look at EB3 numbers instead. Am I missing something?

And if you do that you will see that porting is happening and happening at a huge scale. For the last month itself, the inventory for EB3-I, up untill 2012, dropped by 1275 (46275 - 45500), there is no way these many EB3 visas were issued. Experts, please correct me if I am wrong.

Disclaimer: I do not denounce or support Porting.

[newdif]

The curent accumulative demand for India prior to 2008 is 6850 vs 475 (China) in Eb2 (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf). The current Eb2 priority date is 01SEP04 (India) vs 08DEC07 (China). If we have maybe 7K spill over by the end of the year. I am wondering will China get some of them or will India get all of them?

[laddu0]

porting sucks !!!

[spicy_guy]

porting sucks !!!

Laddu.. jilebi.. yours flop? :D You sound like you tried porting but did not work . :-)
I understand your frustration though.

[The WalL]

Why would you use EB2 numbers to get the porting from EB3, you should look at EB3 numbers instead. Am I missing something?

And if you do that you will see that porting is happening and happening at a huge scale. For the last month itself, the inventory for EB3-I, up untill 2012, dropped by 1275 (46275 - 45500), there is no way these many EB3 visas were issued. Experts, please correct me if I am wrong.

Disclaimer: I do not denounce or support Porting.

There are 233.5 visas available per month for EB3-I. If the inventory is going down faster than that, then its either spillover or abandonment or porting...or a combination of these factors. Since there is no spillover opportunities in EB3 right now, its either abandonment or porting. If you split that evenly, you'd get >630 in porting.

[mgmanoj]

That is the way to get all spillover to India

[laddu0]

Thanks goodintensions for sending the letter template. I will send the physical letter signed to senators and congress man. Let them dig the truth.

Thanks for all your help.

[The WalL]

Feb 2013 Bulletin is out...
Visa Bulletin For February 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5856.html)

Once again, EB2-I sees no movement; EB2-C sees 5 weeks forward movement.
EB3-I and EB3-Phil both moves forward 1 week; EB3-ROW moves forward 6 weeks; EB3-C moves forward 7 weeks.

Demand Data isn't published yet. Will be interesting to see the changes there. Also hoping the January pending inventory report comes out soon providing some insights on inventory - demand gap.

Personally, I'm disappointed that there has been no movement at all with EB2-I despite EB1 and EB2-ROW being C for 4 months (NOV, DEC, JAN and FEB) now. Is the porting that much higher than what we're seeing in the reports that its eating up any quarterly spillover or is spillover non-existent? There is definitely something going on.

Hopefully CIR discussions coming up at the end of this month will help resolve this mess a little.

[tammman]

Thanks for your input...cant wait for the items u were mentioning and see if we can get some insight

Feb 2013 Bulletin is out...
Visa Bulletin Fo !
r February 2013 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5856.html)

Once again, EB2-I sees no movement; EB2-C sees 5 weeks forward movement.
EB3-I and EB3-Phil both moves forward 1 week; EB3-ROW moves forward 6 weeks; EB3-C moves forward 7 weeks.

Demand Data isn't published yet. Will be interesting to see the changes there. Also hoping the January pending inventory report comes out soon providing some insights on inventory - demand gap.

Personally, I'm disappointed that there has been no movement at all with EB2-I despite EB1 and EB2-ROW being C for 4 months (NOV, DEC, JAN and FEB) now. Is the porting that much higher than what we're seeing in the reports that its eating up any quarterly spillover or is spillover non-existent? There is definitely something going on.

Hopefully CIR discussions coming up at the end of this month will help resolve this mess a little.

[a.j.2048]

Personally, I'm disappointed that there has been no movement at all with EB2-I despite EB1 and EB2-ROW being C for 4 months (NOV, DEC, JAN and FEB) now. Is the porting that much higher than what we're seeing in the reports that its eating up any quarterly spillover or is spillover non-existent? There is definitely something going on.

Since EB3-ROW is backlogged 5+ years as well, every EB3ROW person who is able to port is moving to EB1 or EB2. This is reducing the spillover to retrogressed countries in EB2, plus also generating enough demand in EB1 and EB2 that numbers have to be held back in case demand rises further.

[thomachan72]

We should wait to see the demand data for more clarity. It was anticipated that EB2 might not move forward in Feb/March.

[desitiger]

Here you go

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[CKR]

Here you go

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Thanks for the link.
My educated guess is we might see EB2-I move to around Jan 2008 by End of fiscal year 2013 at the very best and be stuck in there for some time.

[thomachan72]

Thanks for the link.
My educated guess is we might see EB2-I move to around Jan 2008 by End of fiscal year 2013 at the very best and be stuck in there for some time.

It is still difficult to make anything from this data. It does not explain the fixing of EB2I at sept 2004 if the total demand for E2 prior to Jan 2010 is 43250.

[chtummala]

Thanks for the link.
My educated guess is we might see EB2-I move to around Jan 2008 by End of fiscal year 2013 at the very best and be stuck in there for some time.

hmm it will Based on EB3-Eb2 porting .. and spill overs ..
we could only expect less spill overs from EB1 ..