EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[vkcs]

EB3 is backlogged for a long time and this is not something new. Porting from EB3 to EB2 is not new either. Why is there so much limelight on porting now? Did folks on EB3 suddenly realize the backlog and decided to port in mass?

There are slightly over 100,000 EB3 filers until July 2007 and these all have EAD/AP.
There is no reason why they cannot try to port. An EAD gives them unlimited flexibility in job search , which probably hasn't been accounted.
I would estimate at least 50% of these EAD EB3s in the next 2-3 years. For them a job change is almost zero risk.
Add to this EB3s from late 2007 and 2008 who would like to port based on EB2 PD

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, Porting may not be that big as most of the people before Jul 2007 (EB2 and EB3) have already have their EADs due to Jul 2007 fiasco. If it were the case it would have happened in 2008, 2009 and 2010 as well. But it didn't. This year we may get more spill over than the last year for EB2 I. As somebody in this forum mentioned have we ever thought the EB2 I dates would move in May Visa Bulletin. We didn't expected that unless USCIS has said they had 12K unused EB1 visas when compared to the EB1 usage for the same time last year. So I am assuming a total spill over for EB2 I & C for this year is going to be around 30K. Which is heigher than the last year. They may want keep some numbers in buffer, for that they need to move the PDs further than the available numbers.

Thanks even I believe that porting would not be very high, please review post # 764, what in your opinion is the maximum possible porting that we will see this year.

[PlainSpeak]

You need to add portings in ROW also, because ROW portings will eat up the spillover that we get from EB2-ROW. If it is more, then EB1/EB5 Spillover will also be consumed by EB2 ROW as the spillover will only be allocated to individual countries only after ROW is current.

Good catch samsaw. Everyone was so worried about EB3 I upgrade that no one thought of EBROW upgrade cases. They are a big chunk and they are the ones most effected by spillover change. They will certainly try and upgrade if they can

[PlainSpeak]

Thanks even I believe that porting would not be very high, please review post # 764, what in your opinion is the maximum possible porting that we will see this year.

TK could CIS have been refering to EB3ROW Upgrade cases when they state High Upgrade demand in thE May 2011 VB

[vdlrao]

There are slightly over 100,000 EB3 filers until July 2007 and these all have EAD/AP.
There is no reason why they cannot try to port. An EAD gives them unlimited flexibility in job search , which probably hasn't been accounted.
I would estimate at least 50% of these EAD EB3s in the next 2-3 years. For them a job change is almost zero risk.
Add to this EB3s from late 2007 and 2008 who would like to port based on EB2 PD

I don't think its going to be 50% porting in the next 2-3 years. If that is the case it might have been in 2008, 2009 and 2010 as well. People with EAD had got jobs during recession(2008 and 2009) also due to the flexibility job change. But porting hadn't been that big.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK could CIS have been refering to EB3ROW Upgrade cases when they state High Upgrade demand in thE May 2011 VB

Porting is mostly restricted to India even for China its negligible. The reason for porting for India is that the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is really huge while for ROW they are at 22 Aug 2005 and EB3 ROW will be marching into 2006 by Sep 2011. If you also consider the 5 Year experience guideline there are far fewer contenders for porting in ROW. I believe the porting reference was for India only I guess we will have to wait for things to clear out by September. For ROW their EB2 is current, for us there is no way to calculate ROW porting on the other website I read recently of 1 ROW porting case, India is probably 100 times more. This is my personal opinion however lets debate this issue further.

[tonyHK12]

I don't think its going to be 50% porting in the next 2-3 years. If that is the case it might have been in 2008, 2009 and 2010 as well. People with EAD had got jobs during recession(2008 and 2009) also due to the flexibility job change. But porting hadn't been that big.

Yes this is true, it has never happened before. But no one has lobbied in favor of porting before, USCIS has never issued statements about large number of portings before.

[vdlrao]

Dependants are included.

Friends here is how I believe that according to the current indicators porting is ~ 6K.

- In the current VB there is an indication that entire EB2-I cap has been consumed which is 2.8K.
- There are broadly 2 types of cases that have been approved in the last 2 months a) Porting b) Additional Dependents or people who missed filing.

The demand data ahs been very stable for Eb2-I in fact members observed only an increase of 100-200.

Now lets assume the worst case scenario of everything in 2800 as porting and also the 10-200 increase in demand data as porting then also porting becomes 3K * 2 = 6K for the full year.

Lets wait for the new inventory to be published to calculate porting again.

Teddy, this looks very reasonable.

[dhiru]

There is a lot of noise regarding the porting. I do not beleive that there are a huge number of people who are porting. Remember that the EB2I dates have not retrogressed in the recent past, which means the porting traffic is not uncontrollable. Also, all the EB3 porters who have their priority dates before May8th 2006 have already been accounted for. According to the EB3 I-485 pending cases, there are only 1701 applications (=867+834) between May8th and July1st. Even if we say all of them have are porting, the total number still comes to 4507 (=1,110EB2IMay06+1,696EB2IJune06+1701EB3porters ). Since EB2C quota has still not reached, there are still 7493 visas left our of the proposed 12000. USCIS should have moved the dates beyond July1st 2006.

[vdlrao]

Yes this is true, it has never happened before. But no one has lobbied in favor of porting before, USCIS has never issued statements about large number of portings before.

Why its needed lobbying when some one is eligible to port by law from EB3 to EB2.:rolleyes:

[gc_on_demand]

I don't think its going to be 50% porting in the next 2-3 years. If that is the case it might have been in 2008, 2009 and 2010 as well. People with EAD had got jobs during recession(2008 and 2009) also due to the flexibility job change. But porting hadn't been that big.

It was recession , and DOL and USCIS was tough on new cases since unemployment rate was so high. In 2008 around Feb people became eligible to switch job but whole EB community had hope that date will be current again. Even your thread EB2 will be current this year was so popular that time. So people didn't look for port till aug/sep.

In Aug / Sep economy crashed , I am sure most of EB community were afraid that they will loose job and that might be one of factor people were low on switch till mid 2009.

I do think that people may have started for switching job from Mid 2009 but again DOL was backlogged. ( PERM was taking longer time and to get EB2 approval was very tough ).

So porting was moderate in 2010. Later 2010 and early 2011 , DOL is processing labor in 1-2 week and USCIS has I 140 PP in place. Also don't forget economy is lot better than 2009 - 2010. People may be getting new offer and govt is cooperative to start new app, porting will rise.. may be we will be true for this year but next year porting will be 12-15k.

[GC_ASP]

I could not understand what Oh-law is talking about. Can someone shed some light on this?

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers


There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.

The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

[PlainSpeak]

It was recession , and DOL and USCIS was tough on new cases since unemployment rate was so high. In 2008 around Feb people became eligible to switch job but whole EB community had hope that date will be current again. Even your thread EB2 will be current this year was so popular that time. So people didn't look for port till aug/sep.

In Aug / Sep economy crashed , I am sure most of EB community were afraid that they will loose job and that might be one of factor people were low on switch till mid 2009.

I do think that people may have started for switching job from Mid 2009 but again DOL was backlogged. ( PERM was taking longer time and to get EB2 approval was very tough ).

So porting was moderate in 2010. Later 2010 and early 2011 , DOL is processing labor in 1-2 week and USCIS has I 140 PP in place. Also don't forget economy is lot better than 2009 - 2010. People may be getting new offer and govt is cooperative to start new app, porting will rise.. may be we will be true for this year but next year porting will be 12-15k.


Agree with what you say.

Upgrades does not just depend on a candidates credentials but also on a company will to sponser and the company will to sponser is directly proportional to economy

As stated upgrades will rise because economy is doing good

[PlainSpeak]

I could not understand what Oh-law is talking about. Can someone shed some light on this?

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers


There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.

The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I think this means that the EB2 cases itself are quite high during the stated time period and hence these cases will use up all the visa and the dates for EB2 will not move much becuase what is important is the numbe rof applicants and not how many days the pd has moved

Lookss like EB2 has hugh demand even without upgrade cases

[dontcareaboutGC]

I think this means that the EB2 cases itself are quite high during the stated time period and hence these cases will use up all the visa and the dates for EB2 will not move much becuase what is important is the numbe rof applicants and not how many days the pd has moved

Lookss like EB2 has hugh demand even without upgrade cases
In my mind porting will happen. Also I tend to think to think that the economy improving people in EB3 category post 2007 with EAD's and AP's may have opportunities to change jobs and re-apply while maintaining their old PD's. While some people may not want to do it due to the uncertainity of being stuck in labor processes etc many will and I do think that there will be a surge of such applications. Consider that with the TARP coming off and economy improving this will affect the time frames.

I also think that DOS with CIS is testing waters per say to evaluate how and what the portings will be- I think till the spillover kicks in there will be very conservative movements if any..

[vdlrao]

GC_ASP,

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

April Demand Data to decide May cut off dates. But as per USCIS it may not be 100% accurate as it didn't reflect all the porting cases.

[dontcareaboutGC]

GC_ASP,

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

April Demand Data to decide May cut off dates. But as per USCIS it may not be 100% accurate as it didn't reflect all the porting cases.
DOS are also limited by law in quota they can apply per quarter-

[PlainSpeak]

GC_ASP,

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

April Demand Data to decide May cut off dates. But as per USCIS it may not be 100% accurate as it didn't reflect all the porting cases.

What i don't understand is why does CIS not provide a count of porting cases. Why is this so hard. Porting by itself is a very unique process so why is it not possible to get that count.

[belmontboy]

What i don't understand is why does CIS not provide a count of porting cases. Why is this so hard. Porting by itself is a very unique process so why is it not possible to get that count.

Thats why i am flabbergasted.

I believe at some point in porting process they reference old I-140.
Whats so hard in keeping a count of those

[dontcareaboutGC]

What i don't understand is why does CIS not provide a count of porting cases. Why is this so hard. Porting by itself is a very unique process so why is it not possible to get that count.
The way I look at it is poor systems, lacking ability to forsee issues. Besides it may be difficult since there is quite a bit of the line is changing at times from multiple employers to country of chargebility etc etc.

I can imagine it to be a extremely chaotic- having said that there is no excuse- previously no one thought about porting to be such a huge game changer- hence all of us including the DOS, CIS were focussed in inventory calculations. Once that happened the pending cases in district offices became relevant and now portings have become relevant- moving forward something else like ROW portings might become more relevant- hence I don't think they have the man power or the ability to make the law and its subsequent interpretations into a fully functional system!

[snathan]

Why its needed lobbying when some one is eligible to port by law from EB3 to EB2.:rolleyes:

Because Lawers are desparate for money in this economy.

[samswas]

Porting is mostly restricted to India even for China its negligible. The reason for porting for India is that the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is really huge while for ROW they are at 22 Aug 2005 and EB3 ROW will be marching into 2006 by Sep 2011. If you also consider the 5 Year experience guideline there are far fewer contenders for porting in ROW. I believe the porting reference was for India only I guess we will have to wait for things to clear out by September. For ROW their EB2 is current, for us there is no way to calculate ROW porting on the other website I read recently of 1 ROW porting case, India is probably 100 times more. This is my personal opinion however lets debate this issue further.

Teddy,
I think Portings are everywhere. USCIS in May Bulletin said, they might need to establish a cut-off date for other countries also (other then India and China). When USCIS says something, we better believe them :), remember what happened last year? USCIS in Last year July Bulletin said that the dates for India and China might move to March/April 2006 by end of facial year 2010, and we all anticipated behind ... at the end they ware right. here is the link to July 2010 Bulletin.

Visa Bulletin for July 2010 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5019.html)

I think Portings from India, ROW, and China will effect the spillover. If USCIS can release the pending cases data for last quarter, we can at least get a better look at the portings

[PlainSpeak]

Thats why i am flabbergasted.

I believe at some point in porting process they reference old I-140.
Whats so hard in keeping a count of those

Absolutely correct. Keeping count of 140 will get an acurate count of porting cases in EB2 and the same can be deducted from EB3 count. that would give a very clear picture.

Maybe there is a conspiracy theory which is that CIS wants to muddle teh number up so that they can go back to the old ways of doing things, but i don't beleive that teh proactive way CIS is doing thier job

Maybe the thing to do is nudge CIS to provide better count of porting cases

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I have cleaned up some posts and unfortunately some posts that were quoting them. Lets focus here on calculating how much porting is happening we all have our opinions whether its good, bad legal etc. Lets have healthy debate and no personal attacks or even vilify any particular group genrically.

[srinivasj]

Friends / Tony I have cleaned up some posts and unfortunately some posts that were quoting them. Lets focus here on calculating how much porting is happening we all have our opinions whether its good, bad legal etc. Lets have healthy debate and no personal attacks or even vilify any particular group genrically.

Lets make teddy's job easy by allowing him to focus only on calculation instead of cleaning the posts..

[bugsbunny]

Friends / Tony I have cleaned up some posts and unfortunately some posts that were quoting them. Lets focus here on calculating how much porting is happening we all have our opinions whether its good, bad legal etc. Lets have healthy debate and no personal attacks or even vilify any particular group genrically.

Please can you moderate other threads as well :)
especially this one

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/2094378-may-vbulletin-out-eb2-india-july-06-only-19.html#post2512277

which is being used to argue about the same issue

[TeddyKoochu]

Please can you moderate other threads as well :)
especially this one

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum2-retrogression-priority-dates-and-visa-bulletins/2094378-may-vbulletin-out-eb2-india-july-06-only-19.html#post2512277

which is being used to argue about the same issue

For now the mandate that I have received is really for this thread even though Pappu as given me the priviliges generically. If you find the moderation to be fair to everyone you can recommend to Pappu and time permitting I can take it up.

Iam trying my best to be fair to everybody and also the level of discussion is going up. We really have to attack the common objective which is the backlog and our situation on account of it and not each other. If anybody feels that a post has been incorrectly deleted please let me know I will restore it back. We should uniformly follow a policy of Zero Tolerance for personal attacks.

[PlainSpeak]

For now the mandate that I have received is really for this thread even though Pappu as given me the priviliges generically. If you find the moderation to be fair to everyone you can recommend to Pappu and time permitting I can take it up.

Iam trying my best to be fair to everybody and also the level of discussion is going up. We really have to attack the common objective which is the backlog and our situation on account of it and not each other. If anybody feels that a post has been incorrectly deleted please let me know I will restore it back. We should uniformly follow a policy of Zero Tolerance for personal attacks.


You are doing a great job of cleaning the posts (including mine)
:)

[h1techSlave]

One statisctic I will use is - I believe 70-80% of EB3s will prefer to port than go back to India.
Correction - EB2 will be worse than EB3 since EB3 will still advance 1-2 weeks every bulletin until the spread is about 2 years. i.e. EB3 reaches about mid 2004.

Well, I would think almost 100% of EB3s will prefer to port, not just 70-80%. Many old people like myself do not have the stomach to go thru the whole process again. That is why many of us are not porting.

Current EB3 I: May 2002. Current EB2 I: May 2006. So in order to have the 2 years spread that you have mentioned we need EB3 I to be in May 2004 (assuming EB2 I is stuck at May 2006). Now, how long will that take if per month movement is 2 weeks? Around 4 years, right?

Oh boy, EB3 I is in deep trouble.

[rajuseattle]

TonyHK12:

Whats the point in the debate of thats not getting anything useful for the EB community?

Lets focus on the VISA recapture or something similar relief which will help everyone on this forum.

[tonyHK12]

TonyHK12:

Whats the point in the debate of thats not getting anything useful for the EB community?

Lets focus on the VISA recapture or something similar relief which will help everyone on this forum.

Well it probably shouldn't be in the public forum, since people get emotional about it

[JalwaeJana]

I think porting will now go up due to three reason.
1) Economy has picked up and hence EB3 will find easy to find job and employers that are willing to file new labor. At the same time labor approval will be faster and smoother due to economy.
2) Attorneys know that a whole bunch of GC applicant come from India/China and they are unable to file and they are unable to make money. They will be actively advising their existing client (company as well as candidate ) to port so that they can make additional money to compensate for new application.
3) Earlier we all were hoping that we might get legislative relief and hence people were reluctant to take risk and invest additional money and effort, when hope was there. Now its no longer seem a possibility so people who are pushed to wall will take the risk in improved economy.

Finally EAD provides flexibility but not the freedom and other advantages of GC so to assume people dont care to port with EAD is not right and thats why we are all ,who have EAD are still debating all these issues.

[PlainSpeak]

I think porting will now go up due to three reason.
1) Economy has picked up and hence EB3 will find easy to find job and employers that are willing to file new labor. At the same time labor approval will be faster and smoother due to economy.
2) Attorneys know that a whole bunch of GC applicant come from India/China and they are unable to file and they are unable to make money. They will be actively advising their existing client (company as well as candidate ) to port so that they can make additional money to compensate for new application.
3) Earlier we all were hoping that we might get legislative relief and hence people were reluctant to take risk and invest additional money and effort, when hope was there. Now its no longer seem a possibility so people who are pushed to wall will take the risk in improved economy.

Finally EAD provides flexibility but not the freedom and other advantages of GC so to assume people dont care to port with EAD is not right and thats why we are all ,who have EAD are still debating all these issues.

Very well thought reasons provided. Backs up the fact that upgrading is going to increase.

[JalwaeJana]

Having said that porting will increase for sure the key question for next few months is timing of this sudden or even gradual increase in porting. My gut says that since economy has improved only in last 6 months, people have started the process only six month back. They will need atleast 10 months ,from time they decide to finally interfile for porting, and hence may not impact the movements for next 4 months. So its possible that dates may go beyond 2006 to use up visa as porters are still not ready to use the left over visa but then they might retrogess as well next year.



I think porting will now go up due to three reason.
1) Economy has picked up and hence EB3 will find easy to find job and employers that are willing to file new labor. At the same time labor approval will be faster and smoother due to economy.
2) Attorneys know that a whole bunch of GC applicant come from India/China and they are unable to file and they are unable to make money. They will be actively advising their existing client (company as well as candidate ) to port so that they can make additional money to compensate for new application.
3) Earlier we all were hoping that we might get legislative relief and hence people were reluctant to take risk and invest additional money and effort, when hope was there. Now its no longer seem a possibility so people who are pushed to wall will take the risk in improved economy.

Finally EAD provides flexibility but not the freedom and other advantages of GC so to assume people dont care to port with EAD is not right and thats why we are all ,who have EAD are still debating all these issues.

[GC_ASP]

Ron was mentioning earlier in the day that the limited movement of EB2 is due to limitations of maximum number of visas that can be issued in one fiscal quarter. According to him, "There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter."- even if these visas are from spill over.....

[belmontboy]

Having said that porting will increase for sure the key question for next few months is timing of this sudden or even gradual increase in porting. My gut says that since economy has improved only in last 6 months, people have started the process only six month back. They will need atleast 10 months ,from time they decide to finally interfile for porting, and hence may not impact the movements for next 4 months. So its possible that dates may go beyond 2006 to use up visa as porters are still not ready to use the left over visa but then they might retrogess as well next year.

Completing ur profile adds more credibility to your say :)

[PlainSpeak]

Ron was mentioning earlier in the day that the limited movement of EB2 is due to limitations of maximum number of visas that can be issued in one fiscal quarter. According to him, "There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter."- even if these visas are from spill over.....

Yes i was just reading the same thread. Looks like the 2800 visa to EB2 have been exhausted and the 30 % limit for each 3rd quarter has also been reached that why the dates moved only 2 months for EB2.

[anura]

Yes i was just reading the same thread. Looks like the 2800 visa to EB2 have been exhausted and the 30 % limit for each 3rd quarter has also been reached that why the dates moved only 2 months for EB2.

And it means for June there will be no movement of EB2 Pdate. Right?

[dontcareaboutGC]

And it means for June there will be no movement of EB2 Pdate. Right?
Not necessarily- it just means that the movement may be between 1 week or a month- depending on the porting cases. In my mind DOS was testing waters to see what would happen in regards to the porting numbers if they opened up 2 months. I estimate about 8K-9K visa's still available from Eb1 catergory!

[PlainSpeak]

And it means for June there will be no movement of EB2 Pdate. Right?

Wel If june is partof 3rd quarter (:p) yes there will be no movement
But july should bring some good news for you

[wanna_immigrate]

Having said that porting will increase for sure the key question for next few months is timing of this sudden or even gradual increase in porting. My gut says that since economy has improved only in last 6 months, people have started the process only six month back. They will need atleast 10 months ,from time they decide to finally interfile for porting, and hence may not impact the movements for next 4 months. So its possible that dates may go beyond 2006 to use up visa as porters are still not ready to use the left over visa but then they might retrogess as well next year.

You are assuming that it will take 10 months for the people who will start porting proces now. Reality is porting has started few months back when job market started improving for experienced hire... my 2 cents

[JalwaeJana]

Agree, thats why I assume that it started 6 months ago and impact of that will be visible only after 4 more months. By that time porting may not impact cut off dates till Aug Bulletin as they will not be part of Aug demand data or may even barely impact september bulletin.

You are assuming that it will take 10 months for the people who will start porting proces now. Reality is porting has started few months back when job market started improving for experienced hire... my 2 cents

[gcFiler08]

EB3 is backlogged for a long time and this is not something new. Porting from EB3 to EB2 is not new either. Why is there so much limelight on porting now? Did folks on EB3 suddenly realize the backlog and decided to port in mass?

Yes. The folks realized after 2010 EB2 movement. Also Importantly desi body shopper starting courting people aggressively for money for porting business after this movement.

Genuine porting where people are changing positions for EB2 are very less.

[rajuseattle]

The folks realized after 2010 EB2 movement. Also Importantly desi body shopper starting courting people aggressively for money for porting business after this movement
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gcFiler08

If you know this abuse why dont u go and report it to appropriate authorities? If you can not then you are also just ranting on the IV forum without any evidence of wrongdoings.

Back in Labor sub days people kept on suggesting mass scale abuse, but it took a while for authorities to understand the overall impact of Labor sub abuse and then shutdown that process.

IF you or tonyHK12 knows something wrong in this process report it to authorities with evidence, simply sepculating or building your own conspiracy theories on who is doing what is useless discussion and not the intent of this thread which is about EB3-EB2 predictions.

[Michael chertoff]

The folks realized after 2010 EB2 movement. Also Importantly desi body shopper starting courting people aggressively for money for porting business after this movement
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gcFiler08

If you know this abuse why dont u go and report it to appropriate authorities? If you can not then you are also just ranting on the IV forum without any evidence of wrongdoings.

Back in Labor sub days people kept on suggesting mass scale abuse, but it took a while for authorities to understand the overall impact of Labor sub abuse and then shutdown that process.

IF you or tonyHK12 knows something wrong in this process report it to authorities with evidence, simply sepculating or building your own conspiracy theories on who is doing what is useless discussion and not the intent of this thread which is about EB3-EB2 predictions.

Man..EB3 are in majority.. there is no point in saying anything about Porting. I was saying from the begining. They are the root cause of whole reterogrssion thing.

They should allowed to port, but they should go back in to the new line.

just wait and see, EB2 will not move, EB3 will take over.

Port baby port.. red or nasty comments are welcome.

MC

[rajuseattle]

They should allowed to port, but they should go back in to the new line.
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MC

Thats not the law. Law is very clear on porting unlike the current Spillover numbers interpretation which is mainly benefitting only EB-2 I/C.

If no spillover EB-2 I/C would also be in the same situation like EB-3 india.

Root cause of retrogression is not EB-3 , it is the supply/demand issue and we all know what thier is huge GAP between supply of EB VISA numbers and the demand from India/China. So I urge you to please do not draw any conclusion that EB-2 india is suffering because of EB-3 porting.

I thought the issue of EB-3 /EB-2 Porting fight is over, but now you are leading this in place of TonyHK12. We all agreed this fight is not good for the IV as a community and decided to keep this thread on eB3/EB2 predictions only. I would urge you again to come back to EB-3/EB-2 predictions and number crunching discussions, no need to taunt EB-3 india.

[h1techSlave]

Did you mean to say "Spillover numbers MIS-interpretation"?

They should allowed to port, but they should go back in to the new line.
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MC

Thats not the law. Law is very clear on porting unlike the current Spillover numbers interpretation which is mainly benefitting only EB-2 I/C.

If no spillover EB-2 I/C would also be in the same situation like EB-3 india.

Root cause of retrogression is not EB-3 , it is the supply/demand issue and we all know what thier is huge GAP between supply of EB VISA numbers and the demand from India/China. So I urge you to please do not draw any conclusion that EB-2 india is suffering because of EB-3 porting.

I thought the issue of EB-3 /EB-2 Porting fight is over, but now you are leading this in place of TonyHK12. We all agreed this fight is not good for the IV as a community and decided to keep this thread on eB3/EB2 predictions only. I would urge you again to come back to EB-3/EB-2 predictions and number crunching discussions, no need to taunt EB-3 india.

[PlainSpeak]

They should allowed to port, but they should go back in to the new line.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MC

Thats not the law. Law is very clear on porting unlike the current Spillover numbers interpretation which is mainly benefitting only EB-2 I/C.

If no spillover EB-2 I/C would also be in the same situation like EB-3 india.

Root cause of retrogression is not EB-3 , it is the supply/demand issue and we all know what thier is huge GAP between supply of EB VISA numbers and the demand from India/China. So I urge you to please do not draw any conclusion that EB-2 india is suffering because of EB-3 porting.

I thought the issue of EB-3 /EB-2 Porting fight is over, but now you are leading this in place of TonyHK12. We all agreed this fight is not good for the IV as a community and decided to keep this thread on eB3/EB2 predictions only. I would urge you again to come back to EB-3/EB-2 predictions and number crunching discussions, no need to taunt EB-3 india.

rajuseattle

There is no use trying to convince EB2 people who have anti porting opinion. Let them rant and rave on this forum and show EB2 in the bad light. We know that porting is a law and will not go away. Don't bother with them.

[PlainSpeak]

EB3 is backlogged for a long time and this is not something new. Porting from EB3 to EB2 is not new either. Why is there so much limelight on porting now? Did folks on EB3 suddenly realize the backlog and decided to port in mass?

Yes. The folks realized after 2010 EB2 movement. Also Importantly desi body shopper starting courting people aggressively for money for porting business after this movement.

Genuine porting where people are changing positions for EB2 are very less.

You have a wrong idea.

When CIS said dates will move in last quarter of 2010 for eb2 they did moving to Apr 2006
Now CIS is saying High Upgrade count so that means the a lot of people are upgrading

So the lime light is because of CIS and that is a fact
Porting was always going on from the time spillover laws were changed. It picked up pace with improving economy and CIS took note of it.

So no one is lime lighting a fact on the contrary it is people like you who are not willing to accept an official fact

[anura]

[QUOTE=gcFiler08;2513021]
Now CIS is saying High Upgrade count so that means the a lot of people are upgrading
So the lime light is because of CIS and that is a fact

DoS not CIS. :)

[PlainSpeak]

[QUOTE=PlainSpeak;2513390]

DoS not CIS. :)

Thank you for the correction.

[Goodintentions]

Dear All,

I do not intend to make comments about the merits of porting. Each person does what is good for him / his family.

Porting nos. are huge. They ought to be. When the time gap between categories is so large this is bound to happen. Like it or not, USCIS has acknowledged this. I would really be surprised if people stay put, when there is an option.

I would not be surprised if it could take anything between 3 to 5 years for EB2 I to cross 2006. By end 2007 both EB2 and EB3 India would be in the same boat and the wait could be around 10 - 12 years.

Under the circumstances, let us seriously think of what we want to do as a unified team (EB2 + EB3)

No one is really interested in the issues facing the EB class (Indians and Chinese). That is why we are held hostage by the undocumented category with our fate tied to the CIR which will NEVER see the light of the day. How can illegals and legals be pooled together? No political party wants a solution. That is the way politics works. Can we all be clear please? Nothing is easy when the system does not offer a time bound programme.

May be we could draw public attention to highlight our issue, but I am NOT SURE. This is what I can think of. There are a number of ways to acheve this. I leave this to the creative brainstorming of all EB2 / 3 friends.

It is unfortunate that the system is designed to ensure long term identured labour at the hands of the employers. NO ONE is interested in us. IV is the ONLY organization which is fighting for our interests without any hidden agenda. Let us make good use of this forum. and try to work out a collective strategy which will benefit all of us!

Note : I think I have said enough! No further comments on this anymore! All that I can sincerely state is that I do not have personally agenda. I am just one of you.

May GOD Bless the EB2 / EB3 community!

[PlainSpeak]

Dear All,

I do not intend to make comments about the merits of porting. Each person does what is good for him / his family.

Porting nos. are huge. They ought to be. When the time gap between categories is so large this is bound to happen. Like it or not, USCIS has acknowledged this. I would really be surprised if people stay put, when there is an option.

I would not be surprised if it could take anything between 3 to 5 years for EB2 I to cross 2006. By end 2007 both EB2 and EB3 India would be in the same boat and the wait could be around 10 - 12 years.

Under the circumstances, let us seriously think of what we want to do as a unified team (EB2 + EB3)

No one is really interested in the issues facing the EB class (Indians and Chinese). That is why we are held hostage by the undocumented category with our fate tied to the CIR which will NEVER see the light of the day. How can illegals and legals be pooled together? No political party wants a solution. That is the way politics works. Can we all be clear please? Nothing is easy when the system does not offer a time bound programme.

May be we could draw public attention to highlight our issue, but I am NOT SURE. This is what I can think of. There are a number of ways to acheve this. I leave this to the creative brainstorming of all EB2 / 3 friends.

It is unfortunate that the system is designed to ensure long term identured labour at the hands of the employers. NO ONE is interested in us. IV is the ONLY organization which is fighting for our interests without any hidden agenda. Let us make good use of this forum. and try to work out a collective strategy which will benefit all of us!

Note : I think I have said enough! No further comments on this anymore! All that I can sincerely state is that I do not have personally agenda. I am just one of you.

May GOD Bless the EB2 / EB3 community!

After a long time and after a whole bunch of anti porter/upgrade posts a post which finally talks common sense. !!!!

[rajuseattle]

goodintentions

I agree with you completely, at this time Iv is the only organization which enjoys the logistics to bring in all EB applicants under one roof.

I hope some of my esteemed EB-2 india members (tonyHK12,BelmontBoy and MC) understand this and leave their ego out and join hands with EB-3 and come together to get some relief from lawmakers, instead of taunting EB-3 to score some points.

If they keep on promoting these divisive postings and tauntings on EB3, it will hurt the entire EB community.

EB3 community accepted spillover rules as legal and law, on the same line I expect EB-2 should also accept EB-3 to EB-2 Porting is a legal way of getting into EB-2 queue.

I still feel that EB-2 is much better position than EB-2 due to spillover rules and they will reach July 2007 soon during the upcoming spillover quarter of FY2011. Please ignore what different lawyers suggesting on their website and creating fear amongst EB-2 india about retrogression. Nobody really knows the real POrting counts and unless we all know the real numbers no point in blaming POrting is the root cause of retrogression.

[sanz]

goodintentions

I agree with you completely, at this time Iv is the only organization which enjoys the logistics to bring in all EB applicants under one roof.

I hope some of my esteemed EB-2 india members (tonyHK12,BelmontBoy and MC) understand this and leave their ego out and join hands with EB-3 and come together to get some relief from lawmakers, instead of taunting EB-3 to score some points.

If they keep on promoting these divisive postings and tauntings on EB3, it will hurt the entire EB community.

EB3 community accepted spillover rules as legal and law, on the same line I expect EB-2 should also accept EB-3 to EB-2 Porting is a legal way of getting into EB-2 queue.

I still feel that EB-2 is much better position than EB-2 due to spillover rules and they will reach July 2007 soon during the upcoming spillover quarter of FY2011. Please ignore what different lawyers suggesting on their website and creating fear amongst EB-2 india about retrogression. Nobody really knows the real POrting counts and unless we all know the real numbers no point in blaming POrting is the root cause of retrogression.


I agree porting , eb2-eb3 fighting are all small things compared to the main problem. No one can do anything wth USCIS or DOL and thats the reason why we shout at each other to vent some anger.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I have deleted some posts from the predictions and calculations blog.

- Lets not indulge in name calling. If you see any such post please private message the post number to me I will delete that rather than anybody replying to it. We should have zero tolerance for any name calling.

- Lets debate the issues, please put forward your view point that why the other person is corect / not correct.

- Unfortunately to moderate this blog I also have to delete the some of the good posts that happen to quote a post that needs to be deleted.

- Lets also refrain from insinuating any group. We all live in unstable glass houses.

- We are all educated and mature individuals let us all conduct ourselvess in a manner that upholds this.

- Please also give red a little bit more judiciously sometimes it can be really discouraging.

Good luck to us all.

[mach1343]

I missed the July/August 2007 by 10 days. My EB2 PD is Feb2nd 2007 and my labor took almost 9 months to get processed by that time I missed "C". How frustrating it is? 4 years w/o EAD when most of the people got their EADs and in better positions when I am still stuck with the same employer with a roller coaster salary. Very unfortunate moving places never heard before with family and infant.

Can someone tell me. Will my date ever get current this year.

I don't want to see dates retrogress in EB2.

[bugsbunny]

TK Zindabad! :)

[Goodintentions]

Dear All,

It may apppear like a joke and would be very strongly opposed by several vested interests. However, I thought I will throw this idea.

Can we propose a bill which would give us - the honest, sincere, law abiding aliens - a time bound path to Green Card and Citizenship?

Political parties onlly talk and seem to be interested in giving illegals a time bound path to citizenship? They even introduced a "Dream Act" in favour their children. Why should we / our children be sidelined?

Can we request for a bill which would:

1.Grant GC to all EB 2 / 3 class pimary applicants who have completed 8 years of continuous stay in the USA without any criminal record.

2. Provide Citizeship to all EB primary applicants who have completed 12 years of continuous stay without any criminal record

Note:

When the primary applicant is issued a GC / Citizenship, the dependents (spouse and kids) should get the same benefit.

The current system is designed to favour ONLY the employers and the law firms, not the humble, hard working EB class slave who toils.

Any thoughts???

[TeddyKoochu]

I missed the July/August 2007 by 10 days. My EB2 PD is Feb2nd 2007 and my labor took almost 9 months to get processed by that time I missed "C". How frustrating it is? 4 years w/o EAD when most of the people got their EADs and in better positions when I am still stuck with the same employer with a roller coaster salary. Very unfortunate moving places never heard before with family and infant.

Can someone tell me. Will my date ever get current this year.

I don't want to see dates retrogress in EB2.

I would give a 50-50 chance for you to be current this September.

[rajuseattle]

TK

I dont mind you deleting my posts if you felt they were not in the spirit of discussions on this thread, but I hope you and other admins will apply the same yardstick to other members who are provoking these verbal arguments and taunting (insulting) other members.

[bugsbunny]

Dear All,

It may apppear like a joke and would be very strongly opposed by several vested interests. However, I thought I will throw this idea.

Can we propose a bill which would give us - the honest, sincere, law abiding aliens - a time bound path to Green Card and Citizenship?

Political parties onlly talk and seem to be interested in giving illegals a time bound path to citizenship? They even introduced a "Dream Act" in favour their children. Why should we / our children be sidelined?

Can we request for a bill which would:

1.Grant GC to all EB 2 / 3 class pimary applicants who have completed 8 years of continuous stay in the USA without any criminal record.

2. Provide Citizeship to all EB primary applicants who have completed 12 years of continuous stay without any criminal record

Note:

When the primary applicant is issued a GC / Citizenship, the dependents (spouse and kids) should get the same benefit.

The current system is designed to favour ONLY the employers and the law firms, not the humble, hard working EB class slave who toils.

Any thoughts???

excellent ideas...if they are not on IV's agenda ...it should be
However please start a new thread with these ideas as its different from current thread topic

[TeddyKoochu]

TK

I dont mind you deleting my posts if you felt they were not in the spirit of discussions on this thread, but I hope you and other admins will apply the same yardstick to other members who are provoking these verbal arguments and taunting (insulting) other members.

Raju I feel very bad deleting the posts I have sent PM to 9 folks I could not send one to you due to your profile preferences. Here is the full message. Some of the messages including yours were good I just had to delete them as well as they quote a post that does not conform our blogs standards (This blog belongs to all of us, thanks for your contributions).

Friends I have deleted some posts from the predictions and calculations blog.

- Lets not indulge in name calling. If you see any such post please private message the post number to me I will delete that rather than anybody replying to it. We should have zero tolerance for any name calling.

- Lets debate the issues, please put forward your view point that why the other person is corect / not correct.

- Unfortunately to moderate this blog I also have to delete the some of the good posts that happen to quote a post that needs to be deleted.

- Lets also refrain from insinuating any group. We all live in unstable glass houses.

- We are all educated and mature individuals let us all conduct ourselvess in a manner that upholds this.

- Please also give red a little bit more judiciously sometimes it can be really discouraging.

Good luck to us all.

[vdlrao]

I missed the July/August 2007 by 10 days. My EB2 PD is Feb2nd 2007 and my labor took almost 9 months to get processed by that time I missed "C". How frustrating it is? 4 years w/o EAD when most of the people got their EADs and in better positions when I am still stuck with the same employer with a roller coaster salary. Very unfortunate moving places never heard before with family and infant.

Can someone tell me. Will my date ever get current this year.

I don't want to see dates retrogress in EB2.

Hi mach1343,

I understand your frustration being in the same boat of GC process. I also missed the july 2007 boat. You are going to be current for sure by this july 2011. On top of it I pray for you as it is praying for myself :-). All the best.

[voicerj]

How can a user delete his/her own post.

[TeddyKoochu]

TK

I dont mind you deleting my posts if you felt they were not in the spirit of discussions on this thread, but I hope you and other admins will apply the same yardstick to other members who are provoking these verbal arguments and taunting (insulting) other members.

Thanks for your post. Yesterday night I had deleted every message that had personal references or quoted messages that had personal references. I believe we should refrain from that however by deleting the messages the essence of the discussion is lost. I have undeleted most of the messages and would therefore urge individuals to edit their own messages to remove the names of others. Some of the posts were good. However lets respect each other.

[snathan]

Hi mach1343,

I understand your frustration being in the same boat of GC process. I also missed the july 2007 boat. You are going to be current for sure by this july 2011. On top of it I pray for you as it is praying for myself :-). All the best.

Add me also to your prayer list...:)

[TeddyKoochu]

How can a user delete his/her own post.

AFAIK user can only edit and moderator can only delete (If I could edit I would definitely done that) some of the posts are really well written.

[ssreenu]

Itna sannata kyun hai bhai???

[gcgonewild]

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

I'm baffled at this low demand for EB-11 and EB-12.

Just 6-8k per year ?

The only other place the demand is from EB-1C, which can't be 20000 - 30000.

Either I'm ignorant of a stat or something is really fishy with USCIS numbers.

[dontcareaboutGC]

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

I'm baffled at this low demand for EB-11 and EB-12.

Just 6-8k per year ?

The only other place the demand is from EB-1C, which can't be 20000 - 30000.

Either I'm ignorant of a stat or something is really fishy with USCIS numbers.
I don't think that one can read a whole lot from the stat's that USCIS publishes. Primarily since their data doesnt seem to reflect the reality. I would rather bank on their year end final numbers and then try to co-relate...maybe. I think DOS is also struggling with that...however there is a lot of improvement from the past!

[vdlrao]

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

I'm baffled at this low demand for EB-11 and EB-12.

Just 6-8k per year ?

The only other place the demand is from EB-1C, which can't be 20000 - 30000.

Either I'm ignorant of a stat or something is really fishy with USCIS numbers.

It might be showing how the EB1C category been exploited by the MNCs in previous years.


Due to the stringent scrutiny for EB1C now, this might be one reason why we got 12K spill over for the first half of the fiscal year from EB1 for the current year.

[dontcareaboutGC]

It might be showing how the EB1C category been exploited by the MNCs.


This might be one reason why we got 12K spill over for the first half of the fiscal year from EB1 for the current year.
Or could be the increased scrutiny in regards to the Eb1 applications pertaining to some previous memo's CIS has come out with!

[h1techSlave]

Can we hope for another 12K is on the way from the 2nd half?

It might be showing how the EB1C category been exploited by the MNCs in previous years.


Due to the stringent scrutiny for EB1C now, this might be one reason why we got 12K spill over for the first half of the fiscal year from EB1 for the current year.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Can we hope for another 12K is on the way from the 2nd half?
Possibly- but depends on what CIS / DOS sees in regards to the portings. If they are heavy then the date movement might struggle...however I still believe that DOS is testing waters in moving the dates by only 2 months to gauge the porting situation!

[vdlrao]

Can we hope for another 12K is on the way from the 2nd half?

Yes h1techSlave, I think we may get about 20K to 25K this year from EB1 and assuming this would be the same for the next few years. So this will help EB2 to make a faster movement. I also thinking that the bill to cancel the DV Lottery visas and allocate them to EB category will pass some time soon, which will bring a great relief for EB3 India directly and make the dates move in conjunction with EB3 ROW.

[Saralayar]

excellent ideas...if they are not on IV's agenda ...it should be
However please start a new thread with these ideas as its different from current thread topic
I started a thread some years ago regarding the Citizenship. There was a good response from the members but IV did not take that as an action item in any of their campaign. Please look for my previous thread on Citizenship and bump that back if you are interested.

[ryan]

Dear All,

I do not intend to make comments about the merits of porting. Each person does what is good for him / his family.

May GOD Bless the EB2 / EB3 community!

I follow some of what you say. That said, you sure could use an amount of optimism in your comments / tone, and the way you say it all. I have read more than a few of your comments, and they do come across a tad bit gloom, doom and all is going to hell -- aka a Debbbie Downer! The fact is, nobody here has factual insight into the mechanisms of the Visa Bulletins. There are educated guesstimates by some, there are hopeful guesstimates and then there are the Debbie Downers. So please, lighten up – having an amount of positivity is half the battle in this journey.

May God bless you too!

[ssreenu]

Yes h1techSlave, I think we may get about 20K to 25K this year from EB1 and assuming this would be the same for the next few years. So this will help EB2 to make a faster movement. I also thinking that the bill to cancel the DV Lottery visas and allocate them to EB category will pass some time soon, which will bring a great relief for EB3 India directly and make the dates move in conjunction with EB3 ROW.

I wish the bill would be passed soon (no hopes on this hopeless govt) but however this will not give any relief to the EB3 category while it gives relief only to EB2 to a certain extent.

SEC. 2. VISAS FOR CERTAIN EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS WHO OBTAIN AN ADVANCED DEGREE IN THE UNITED STATES.

(a) In General- Section 203(b)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(2)) is amended by adding at the end the following:
`(D) CERTAIN ALIENS OBTAINING ADVANCED DEGREES IN THE UNITED STATES- Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 55,000, to qualified immigrants who--
`(i) are a member of a profession holding an advanced degree obtained within the United States;
`(ii)(I) obtained such degree within the United States during the 5-year period preceding the date on which the petition filed under section 204(a)(1)(F) for classification under this subparagraph is filed; or
`(II) has resided continuously in the United States in a lawful nonimmigrant status since obtaining such degree; and
`(iii) whose services in the sciences or medicine--
`(I) are sought by an employer in the United States; and
`(II) will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy of the United States.'.

Source: http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:H.R.43:

[snathan]

I wish the bill would be passed soon (no hopes on this hopeless govt) but however this will not give any relief to the EB3 category while it gives relief only to EB2 to a certain extent.

SEC. 2. VISAS FOR CERTAIN EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS WHO OBTAIN AN ADVANCED DEGREE IN THE UNITED STATES.

(a) In General- Section 203(b)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(2)) is amended by adding at the end the following:
`(D) CERTAIN ALIENS OBTAINING ADVANCED DEGREES IN THE UNITED STATES- Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 55,000, to qualified immigrants who--
`(i) are a member of a profession holding an advanced degree obtained within the United States;
`(ii)(I) obtained such degree within the United States during the 5-year period preceding the date on which the petition filed under section 204(a)(1)(F) for classification under this subparagraph is filed; or
`(II) has resided continuously in the United States in a lawful nonimmigrant status since obtaining such degree; and
`(iii) whose services in the sciences or medicine--
`(I) are sought by an employer in the United States; and
`(II) will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy of the United States.'.

The bill is not going anywhere and dont count on that

[vkcs]

What is stopping them from publishing similar Statistics for all other categories?

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

I'm baffled at this low demand for EB-11 and EB-12.

Just 6-8k per year ?

The only other place the demand is from EB-1C, which can't be 20000 - 30000.

Either I'm ignorant of a stat or something is really fishy with USCIS numbers.

[vdlrao]

I wish the bill would be passed soon (no hopes on this hopeless govt) but however this will not give any relief to the EB3 category while it gives relief only to EB2 to a certain extent.

SEC. 2. VISAS FOR CERTAIN EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS WHO OBTAIN AN ADVANCED DEGREE IN THE UNITED STATES.

(a) In General- Section 203(b)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(2)) is amended by adding at the end the following:
`(D) CERTAIN ALIENS OBTAINING ADVANCED DEGREES IN THE UNITED STATES- Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 55,000, to qualified immigrants who--
`(i) are a member of a profession holding an advanced degree obtained within the United States;
`(ii)(I) obtained such degree within the United States during the 5-year period preceding the date on which the petition filed under section 204(a)(1)(F) for classification under this subparagraph is filed; or
`(II) has resided continuously in the United States in a lawful nonimmigrant status since obtaining such degree; and
`(iii) whose services in the sciences or medicine--
`(I) are sought by an employer in the United States; and
`(II) will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy of the United States.'.

This bill makes whole EB2 current, EB1 is current already, So all the spill over will be allocated to EB3 India only.


EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3 applicants with oldest priority dates.



This means a direct relief for EB3 India.

[snathan]

This bill makes whole EB2 current, EB1 is current already, So all the spill over will be allocated to EB3 India only.


EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3 applicants with oldest priority dates.



This means a direct relief for EB3 India.

No...It will go to EB3ROW before flowing to EB3I

[ssreenu]

The bill is not going anywhere and dont count on that

Agreed that's why I said it on the very first line of my post: "I wish the bill would be passed soon (no hopes on this hopeless govt) "

[gc_on_demand]

No...It will go to EB3ROW before flowing to EB3I

it goes to oldest pd with in any given category regardless of country.

[ssreenu]

This bill makes whole EB2 current, EB1 is current already, So all the spill over will be allocated to EB3 India only.


EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3 applicants with oldest priority dates.



This means a direct relief for EB3 India.


Please read the bill again it will give relief only to the EB2 category and to those who had obtained masters in the USA and in the past five years and resided legally... Lets assume this bill would make EB2 current by giving visa numbers to them and then the remaining numbers would be applied to EB3 and how do you think this is a direct relief when there is already a clear EB2 layer in between :confused: I hope you understood my point. This bill will not do any good to the people who are in EB2 and obtained masters outside USA (I mean India) and will also not do any good to people who obtained masters in USA before 5 years.

[snathan]

it goes to oldest pd with in any given category regardless of country.

If spillover gets to EB3 then, it will first go to ROW, and if ROW is current, then only it will get allocated to individual countries.

Here is what Ron said in his forum:
That's not how the law is written. Unused worldwide visas first "fall across" into the same preference category for the single state limited countries. Assume for a moment that all China and India EB applicants were taken care of, the remaining unused worldwide EB2 numbers would then fall down into worldwide EB3. Only if there were still numbers left over from worldwide EB3 would the remaining unused visas fall across to China, India, Mexico, Philippines EB3.

EB2 visa availability (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/)

[snathan]

Please read the bill again it will give relief only to the EB2 category and to those who had obtained masters in the USA and in the past five years and resided legally... Lets assume this bill would make EB2 current by giving visa numbers to them and then the remaining numbers would be applied to EB3 and how do you think this is a direct relief when there is already a clear EB2 layer in between :confused: I hope you understood my point.

It will give relief in the following years if the EB2 I/C is current as the spill over will flow into EB3.

[bugsbunny]

i don't get why people can't look beyond their own EB category. :)
Any bill benefiting any EB category...will benefit all directly or indirectly.
Even if its not directly benefiting your specific category...please support it...as in the end we want to make all categories current.

[anura]

What is stopping them from publishing similar Statistics for all other categories?

Perhaps that someone will go to the court. Or congress will call them and grill them.

Oh does that mean they are hiding something ? Some sort of sloppy job that they are doing ?

Who knows...? They are their own kingdom.

[gc_check]

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

I'm baffled at this low demand for EB-11 and EB-12.

Just 6-8k per year ?

The only other place the demand is from EB-1C, which can't be 20000 - 30000.

Either I'm ignorant of a stat or something is really fishy with USCIS numbers.
May be, If you are NOT from India/China EB2 is current and people took the easy route and ended up in EB2 category rather then trying the EB1 route. (Similar to my ignorant thinking how I ended up in EB3 back in '03) and real demand isn't reflecting. As long as GC gets approved soon, doesn't matter -- Just my theory... could be wrong

[vdlrao]

If spillover gets to EB3 then, it will first go to ROW, and if ROW is current, then only it will get allocated to individual countries.

Here is what Ron said in his forum:
That's not how the law is written. Unused worldwide visas first "fall across" into the same preference category for the single state limited countries. Assume for a moment that all China and India EB applicants were taken care of, the remaining unused worldwide EB2 numbers would then fall down into worldwide EB3. Only if there were still numbers left over from worldwide EB3 would the remaining unused visas fall across to China, India, Mexico, Philippines EB3.

EB2 visa availability (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/eb2-visa-availability-13774/)

This situation only may arise that if a given country doesn't have much representation in EB1 and EB2 and only represented in EB3 and the overall quota of that country in all the 3 categories are less than 7% of 1,40,000= 9,800. This kind of situation happend in 2008 with EB2 north koria. For which they have allocated more than 3266 (1/3 of 9,800 visas). If I remember correctly the allocation is around 6K for EB2 North Korea at that time . This kind of countries will not be many. Even though there are couple of countries they still have a limit of 9,800 limit. So finally only EB3 India will get benefitted with the additional 50K visas.



.

[gc_check]

it goes to oldest pd with in any given category regardless of country.
No, Do not think so.. First to E3 ROW and then to over - subscribed counties regardless of per country limit. ROW must be current.
Folks with more understanding on this, your comments

[h1techSlave]

i don't get why people can't look beyond their own EB category. :)
Any bill benefiting any EB category...will benefit all directly or indirectly.
Even if its not directly benefiting your specific category...please support it...as in the end we want to make all categories current.

Some how people are having a difficult time understanding this.

[TeddyKoochu]

It might be showing how the EB1C category been exploited by the MNCs in previous years.


Due to the stringent scrutiny for EB1C now, this might be one reason why we got 12K spill over for the first half of the fiscal year from EB1 for the current year.

Another reason is the Kazarian memo this has made EB1 A & B adjudication very tough.

[PlainSpeak]

Yes h1techSlave, I think we may get about 20K to 25K this year from EB1 and assuming this would be the same for the next few years. So this will help EB2 to make a faster movement. I also thinking that the bill to cancel the DV Lottery visas and allocate them to EB category will pass some time soon, which will bring a great relief for EB3 India directly and make the dates move in conjunction with EB3 ROW.

vdlrao need a clarification ...

I thought the bill (cancel the DV Lottery visas and allocate them to EB category) will allocate the 50 k visa to US Master holders in EB Category
Currently we have no staticstics of the number of US Master visa holders in EB3 In category, so your statement that EB3 I dates wil move with this bill cannot be substantiated without hard numbers.

[vdlrao]

vdlrao need a clarification ...

I thought the bill (cancel the DV Lottery visas and allocate them to EB category) will allocate the 50 k visa to US Master holders in EB Category
Currently we have no staticstics of the number of US Master visa holders in EB3 In category, so your statement that EB3 I dates wil move with this bill cannot be substantiated without hard numbers.

You are righ PlainSpeak. There's a possibility that some of these numbers will go to EB3 people who holds a USA Masters Degree. I didn't realize that.

[zeal2005]

Guyes - Teddy and other experts, Do you have revised estimates for this year now looking at the VB published for May?:confused:

[PlainSpeak]

While people talk about how piecemeal benefits will somehow percolate down to badly retrogressed category if not now later i have learnt by hard experience that change is the only constant and everything changes sooner or later

Now people on IV talk about various options
and how each option will relieve the pressure on badly retrogressed category

1. 50 k DV bill which will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Clear EB3 persons with MS degree 5 years ago
c. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

2. 20 k spillover in 2011 will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Make EB3 ROW eligible for spillover in 2012
c. Clear EB3 ROW in a few years
d. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

BUt what people do not realize is that
- a could happen but b and c might not
- a and b could happen but c might not

There is no confirmation that all the steps will happen in the right sequence or happen at all so going with the assumption that any small benefit will indirectly effect you is a wrong supposition

It is like a old and a blind man with one hand trying to thread 3 needles and just because he was able to thread the first needle the last needle hopes it will get threaded.
You tell me if the last needle hopes are valid or not

Me i would rather hope that even though the man is old and blind he has to thread only one needle

[PlainSpeak]

You are righ PlainSpeak. There's a possibility that some of these numbers will go to EB3 people who holds a USA Masters Degree. I didn't realize that.

Provided they got MS in USA 5 years back. Now if you think about it what percentage of EB3 will it clear ?
Or CIS could change the whole game by making it a seperate category altoghether

[bugsbunny]

While people talk about how piecemeal benefits will somehow percolate down to badly retrogressed category if not now later i have learnt by hard experience that change is the only constant and everything changes sooner or later

Now people on IV talk about various options
and how each option will relieve the pressure on badly retrogressed category

1. 50 k DV bill which will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Clear EB3 persons with MS degree 5 years ago
c. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

2. 20 k spillover in 2011 will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Make EB3 ROW eligible for spillover in 2012
c. Clear EB3 ROW in a few years
d. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

BUt what people do not realize is that
- a could happen but b and c might not
- a and b could happen but c might not

There is no confirmation that all the steps will happen in the right sequence or happen at all so going with the assumption that any small benefit will indirectly effect you is a wrong supposition

It is like a old and a blind man with one hand trying to thread 3 needles and just because he was able to thread the first needle the last needle hopes it will get threaded.
You tell me if the last needle hopes are valid or not

Please refrain from posting divisive issues...this has been discussed over and over...and i think many on here do realize the pluses and minuses for each category..with each piecemeal bill

It is certainly better than no bill...and once we get piecemeal bills done...we can focus on larger bills...we need to make inroads however small...even if may not benefit any specific EB category

[PlainSpeak]

Please refrain from posting divisive issues...this has been discussed over and over...and i think many on here do realize the pluses and minuses for each category..with each piecemeal bill

It is certainly better than no bill...and once we get piecemeal bills done...we can focus on larger bills...we need to make inroads however small...even if may not benefit any specific EB category

This is not a divise post, but a post to state that even piecemeal benefits have a way of going wrong in the final end run, so maybe the whole approach needs to be revisited.

[snathan]

While people talk about how piecemeal benefits will somehow percolate down to badly retrogressed category if not now later i have learnt by hard experience that change is the only constant and everything changes sooner or later

Now people on IV talk about various options
and how each option will relieve the pressure on badly retrogressed category

1. 50 k DV bill which will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Clear EB3 persons with MS degree 5 years ago
c. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

2. 20 k spillover in 2011 will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Make EB3 ROW eligible for spillover in 2012
c. Clear EB3 ROW in a few years
d. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

BUt what people do not realize is that
- a could happen but b and c might not
- a and b could happen but c might not

There is no confirmation that all the steps will happen in the right sequence or happen at all so going with the assumption that any small benefit will indirectly effect you is a wrong supposition

It is like a old and a blind man with one hand trying to thread 3 needles and just because he was able to thread the first needle the last needle hopes it will get threaded.
You tell me if the last needle hopes are valid or not

Me i would rather hope that even though the man is old and blind he has to thread only one needle

The last needle should understand the hope alone is not going give any relief.

The best option is everyone stuck in the backlog gather here, stay united and fight togather. Otherwise we can fight all day and night between ourselves and check the IV,USCIS sites even after 10 years...

[bugsbunny]

This is not a divise post, but a post to state that even piecemeal benefits have a way of going wrong in the final end run, so maybe the whole approach needs to be revisited.

well then here is a task for you
design a bill...keeping in mind not your benefit ...but the American people's benefit (because lawmakers care more about them)

when you come up with a better bill....put it on a separate thread on here so we can all debate on it...to make it better...and gather enough support from IV members (like how its being done for the "I-485 filing when not current" issue)

then we can propose it to IV to take it up

This is the constructive process ...atleast within IV

After this it still has to be taken up by leaders of state chapters and by Core members by visiting lawmakers

[PlainSpeak]

well then here is a task for you
design a bill...keeping in mind not your benefit ...but the American people's benefit (because lawmakers care more about them)

when you come up with a better bill....put it on a separate thread on here so we can all debate on it...to make it better...and gather enough support from IV members (like how its being done for the "I-485 filing when not current" issue)

then we can propose it to IV to take it up

This is the constructive process ...atleast within IV

After this it still has to be taken up by leaders of state chapters and by Core members by visiting lawmakers

You mean to say that IV will support a proposal that makes threewad bypass all needles and go to the last needle if that proposal gets 5000 votes for IV members?

I think that is a pipe dream.

In any case my post was regarding the vagaries of chance and the wisdom of hoping that all will happen in sequence.

And so before i get bamboozeld by both categories let me make it clear that the post was my own opinion and not of any specific category in EB retorgression process

[snathan]

You mean to say that IV will support a proposal that makes threewad bypass all needles and go to the last needle if that proposal gets 5000 votes for IV members?

I think that is a pipe dream.

In any case my post was regarding the vagaries of chance and the wisdom of hoping that all will happen in sequence.

You need to understand the GC is desinged to benefit the Country and not the last needle. For the lawmakers the First and second needles are more important than the last one.

You are again and again starting the EB2-EB3 fight...refrain from this.

[bugsbunny]

You mean to say that IV will support a proposal that makes threewad bypass all needles and go to the last needle if that proposal gets 5000 votes for IV members?

I think that is a pipe dream.

In any case my post was regarding the vagaries of chance and the wisdom of hoping that all will happen in sequence.

without a dream and ambition and united determination...nothing can happen :)
July 07 was not in our dreams but it happened
lets all dream together ;)

[Goodintentions]

Dear All,

It may apppear like a joke and would be very strongly opposed by several vested interests. However, I thought I will throw this idea.

Can we propose a bill which would give us - the honest, sincere, law abiding aliens - a time bound path to Green Card and Citizenship?

Political parties onlly talk and seem to be interested in giving illegals a time bound path to citizenship? They even introduced a "Dream Act" in favour their children. Why should we / our children be sidelined?

Can we request for a bill which would:

1.Grant GC to all EB 2 / 3 class pimary applicants who have completed 8 years of continuous stay in the USA without any criminal record.

2. Provide Citizeship to all EB primary applicants who have completed 12 years of continuous stay without any criminal record

Note:

When the primary applicant is issued a GC / Citizenship, the dependents (spouse and kids) should get the same benefit.

The current system is designed to favour ONLY the employers and the law firms, not the humble, hard working EB class slave who toils.

Any thoughts???
=================

I saw some comments from friends. If someone wants to start a new thread welcome. I can contribute my sincere thoughts

Best wishes...

[ssreenu]

=================

I saw some comments from friends. If someone wants to start a new thread welcome. I can contribute my sincere thoughts

Best wishes...

Why can't you start a new thread since they are your ideas? I am sure people will contribute towards it...

[samswas]

Guyes - Teddy and other experts, Do you have revised estimates for this year now looking at the VB published for May?:confused:

Here is what I think -
Worst is - 1st Jan 2007
Best is - July 2007
Reasonable - April/May - 2007

Worst - 12k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 6k from EB2-ROW (even if portings effect this) = 26k
Best - 24k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 10k from EB2-ROW = 42k
Reasonable - 20k EB1 + 8k EB5 + 8k EB2-ROW = 36k

[PlainSpeak]

without a dream and ambition and united determination...nothing can happen :)
July 07 was not in our dreams but it happened
lets all dream together ;)

First of all July 07 was not planned. It happened because DOS was fed up with responding to everyone with respect to CIS wasting visas performance and DOC decided to take matters in its own hands and made all categories current so no visas get wasted. I repeat again that it was not planned and no one had any clue.

Now once that happened the VB was recinded and that is when everyone went ballastic. IV created a campaign to send flowerm, AILA used its offices to put legal pressure on DOS and finally the VB had to be made current because DOS was caught in a legal bind and could not extract itself out of it.

Everyone keeps talking about how we have to think of immigration as what america wants and not what we want and that is correct and in the same sense we have to under stand that july 29007 happened because in american style they were caught legally and could not overturn and not because they got emotional receiveing all the flowers from us.

[dontcareaboutGC]

First of all July 07 was not planned. It happened because DOS was fed up with responding to everyone with respect to CIS wasting visas performance and DOC decided to take matters in its own hands and made all categories current so no visas get wasted. I repeat again that it was not planned and no one had any clue.

Now once that happened the VB was recinded and that is when everyone went ballastic. IV created a campaign to send flowerm, AILA used its offices to put legal pressure on DOS and finally the VB had to be made current because DOS was caught in a legal bind and could not extract itself out of it.

Everyone keeps talking about how we have to think of immigration as what america wants and not what we want and that is correct and in the same sense we have to under stand that july 29007 happened because in american style they were caught legally and could not overturn and not because they got emotional receiveing all the flowers from us.
Not to mention it will NEVER happen again- not with the supply demand issue currently at hand.

[waitingnwaiting]

First of all July 07 was not planned. It happened because DOS was fed up with responding to everyone with respect to CIS wasting visas performance and DOC decided to take matters in its own hands and made all categories current so no visas get wasted. I repeat again that it was not planned and no one had any clue.

Now once that happened the VB was recinded and that is when everyone went ballastic. IV created a campaign to send flowerm, AILA used its offices to put legal pressure on DOS and finally the VB had to be made current because DOS was caught in a legal bind and could not extract itself out of it.

Everyone keeps talking about how we have to think of immigration as what america wants and not what we want and that is correct and in the same sense we have to under stand that july 29007 happened because in american style they were caught legally and could not overturn and not because they got emotional receiveing all the flowers from us.

I beleieve IV lobbied and reversed the visa bulletin.

If you believe lawyers did it. Why are you here. Go talk to them and find some legal angle to catch the system and get greencards for all of us. I hate when people are so ungrateful. Many people sent flowers then. People like you would only be on IV site to refresh and check updates. Isn't that true?

If you feel spillover rule should be changed go and work on some legal angle instead of wasting time on threads.

[bugsbunny]

First of all July 07 was not planned. It happened because DOS was fed up with responding to everyone with respect to CIS wasting visas performance and DOC decided to take matters in its own hands and made all categories current so no visas get wasted. I repeat again that it was not planned and no one had any clue.

Now once that happened the VB was recinded and that is when everyone went ballastic. IV created a campaign to send flowerm, AILA used its offices to put legal pressure on DOS and finally the VB had to be made current because DOS was caught in a legal bind and could not extract itself out of it.

Everyone keeps talking about how we have to think of immigration as what america wants and not what we want and that is correct and in the same sense we have to under stand that july 29007 happened because in american style they were caught legally and could not overturn and not because they got emotional receiveing all the flowers from us.

yeah but they could have still fought it out ...instead they caved in to legal pressure and pressure from many in IV protesting about it...together!
IV has done many such things...please look at IV accomplishments in the "about us" section
When one person complains about something...they can ignore
but when 1000's of people complain about the same thing then they will pay attention

you do understand how the legislative process works...so why don't you participate in meeting your local lawmakers along with your state chapter members
its a lot better than time spent here...you know this

[ssreenu]

excellent ideas...if they are not on IV's agenda ...it should be
However please start a new thread with these ideas as its different from current thread topic

@bugsbunny: New thread started, please advise about the next steps...

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/2104259-bill-to-introduce-time-bound-path.html#post2515582

[PlainSpeak]

I beleieve IV lobbied and reversed the visa bulletin.

If you believe lawyers did it. Why are you here. Go talk to them and find some legal angle to catch the system and get greencards for all of us. I hate when people are so ungrateful. Many people sent flowers then. People like you would only be on IV site to refresh and check updates. Isn't that true?

If you feel spillover rule should be changed go and work on some legal angle instead of wasting time on threads.

My friend i was one of those who sent the flower, and i am not saying lawyers got it done. I am saying DOS did it because if they did not then they would be open to lawsuit and they woudl have no case. Now here in that sentence is the work lawyer even invoked

[PlainSpeak]

yeah but they could have still fought it out ...instead they caved in to legal pressure and pressure from many in IV protesting about it...together!
IV has done many such things...please look at IV accomplishments in the "about us" section
When one person complains about something...they can ignore
but when 1000's of people complain about the same thing then they will pay attention

you do understand how the legislative process works...so why don't you participate in meeting your local lawmakers along with your state chapter members
its a lot better than time spent here...you know this

Hey hold on now, this discussion was never about IV not doing anything. You chnaged teh context.

I merely said that sending flowers would not have caused CIS to back down because american system works according to the law and not according to emotions. Try sending flowers now to CIS to make some change (Lets say spillover law chnage for example or making EB2 current). Just try ita nd see if it makes CIS change their mind. The problem is not that 1000's of member are complaining but because 1000's of member are complaining about 1000 different things.

As for meeting law makers i have my own opinion but will not discuss that here because then it will make this thread divisive, so let us leave it at that

[snathan]

Here is what I think -
Worst is - 1st Jan 2007
Best is - July 2007
Reasonable - April/May - 2007

Worst - 12k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 6k from EB2-ROW (even if portings effect this) = 26k
Best - 24k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 10k from EB2-ROW = 42k
Reasonable - 20k EB1 + 8k EB5 + 8k EB2-ROW = 36k

If 42K is coming as spill over, it will take us into 2008

[anura]

Here is what I think -
Worst is - 1st Jan 2007
Best is - July 2007
Reasonable - April/May - 2007

Worst - 12k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 6k from EB2-ROW (even if portings effect this) = 26k
Best - 24k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 10k from EB2-ROW = 42k
Reasonable - 20k EB1 + 8k EB5 + 8k EB2-ROW = 36k

Your 36k estimate of mid 2007 seems fine but 42k seems a bit off. That should take the cutoff date into mid 2008. Almost June'08. I wonder if CIS can take that much burden...

[ssreenu]

If you think you have waited enough time to get a GC, please gather here:

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/2104259-bill-to-introduce-time-bound-path.html#post2515606

If we raise our voice together lawmakers will definitely listen to us.

[mayurcreation]

If you think you have waited enough time to get a GC, please gather here:

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/2104259-bill-to-introduce-time-bound-path.html#post2515606

If we raise our voice together lawmakers will definitely listen to us.

I agree and support this initiative...:)

[samswas]

Quote:
Originally Posted by samswas
Here is what I think -
Worst is - 1st Jan 2007
Best is - July 2007
Reasonable - April/May - 2007

Worst - 12k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 6k from EB2-ROW (even if portings effect this) = 26k
Best - 24k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 10k from EB2-ROW = 42k
Reasonable - 20k EB1 + 8k EB5 + 8k EB2-ROW = 36k
If 42K is coming as spill over, it will take us into 2008

If 42K is coming as spill over, it will take us into 2008


There are around 35k pending (I+C) as per Jan inventory + 6K portings, which is 41k. Thats why I said July 2007

[samswas]

Your 36k estimate of mid 2007 seems fine but 42k seems a bit off. That should take the cutoff date into mid 2008. Almost June'08. I wonder if CIS can take that much burden...

There are around 35k pending (I+C) as per Jan inventory + 6K portings, which is 41k. Thats why I said July 2007

[mach1343]

Yes Rao we are in the same boat.

[bugsbunny]

The problem is not that 1000's of member are complaining but because 1000's of member are complaining about 1000 different things.

AHA! so you agree that we have to unite over common goals! :)

[TeddyKoochu]

There are around 35k pending (I+C) as per Jan inventory + 6K portings, which is 41k. Thats why I said July 2007

I think you have a great estimate. Nathan you are ignoring the virtual demand like PWMB and porting this will appear only when the dates move. The table in post # 1 also kind of correlates with that.

[TeddyKoochu]

While people talk about how piecemeal benefits will somehow percolate down to badly retrogressed category if not now later i have learnt by hard experience that change is the only constant and everything changes sooner or later

Now people on IV talk about various options
and how each option will relieve the pressure on badly retrogressed category

1. 50 k DV bill which will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Clear EB3 persons with MS degree 5 years ago
c. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

2. 20 k spillover in 2011 will
a. Clear EB2 baclog and make it current
b. Make EB3 ROW eligible for spillover in 2012
c. Clear EB3 ROW in a few years
d. Hence clear the line for EB3 I

BUt what people do not realize is that
- a could happen but b and c might not
- a and b could happen but c might not

There is no confirmation that all the steps will happen in the right sequence or happen at all so going with the assumption that any small benefit will indirectly effect you is a wrong supposition

It is like a old and a blind man with one hand trying to thread 3 needles and just because he was able to thread the first needle the last needle hopes it will get threaded.
You tell me if the last needle hopes are valid or not

Me i would rather hope that even though the man is old and blind he has to thread only one needle

PS nice compilation. If we talk about the EB2 backlog till date its really 120K. However the 50K DV numbers will help a great deal. I would say only 50% of EB2 have US masters however it helps everybody and also many people stuck in EB3 who either have masters or have acquired the qualification. The spillover this year including the regular cap has to be 40K to clear everyone till Jul - Aug 07 it have to be sustained for 3-4 years to truly clear the EB2 backlog, however as the job market improves this spillover may just vanish in no time. EB3 ROW situation is different they are assured of their numbers and will overtake EB2 I/C if the spillover becomes smaller. I think we are all still debating if spillover comes to EB3 who gets it EB3 - I or ROW, IMHO it should be India but I think someone should ask this question to a qualified lawyer.

[TeddyKoochu]

Yes Rao we are in the same boat.

Around 5000 (Total not just primary) people PWMB's from May - Jul 2007 including me missed the golden opportunity it will be 4 years we are still waiting for that day. The May bulletin has kindled some hopes, if in the June bulletin we see a month to 2 of movement then we may well be on track. I feel that only 4.5K of the 12K were allocated and porting is 6K per year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Big Thank you to all the level of discussion on the thread is much higher today. Sincerest Thanks to everybody.

[pod1]

Big Thank you to all the level of discussion on the thread is much higher today. Sincerest Thanks to everybody.

Teddy,

Can we expect any movement in May (June Bulletin)?

[gk_2000]

I beleieve IV lobbied and reversed the visa bulletin.

If you believe lawyers did it. Why are you here. Go talk to them and find some legal angle to catch the system and get greencards for all of us. I hate when people are so ungrateful. Many people sent flowers then. People like you would only be on IV site to refresh and check updates. Isn't that true?

If you feel spillover rule should be changed go and work on some legal angle instead of wasting time on threads.

I dont think the hostile nature of reply was warranted. Come on, it was just an opinion! Learn to let opinions flow, at least as long as they dont pretend to be facts

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Can we expect any movement in May (June Bulletin)?

I feel 1 month is possible.

[gk_2000]

Sure define common :D

Let me attempt:

What: Make PD for EB3 move by 2 years
How: To be decided later by all willing participants
Possible participants: EB3I, EB3Row

What: Get proper data on pipeline
How: FOIA or other mutually agreeable means
Possible participants: EB2 I/C, EB3 Row/I/C, etc. Even FAIR?

What: Visa recapture
How: Legislative fix
Possible participants: All retrogressed people?

What: Filing 485 when PD not current
How: Admin fix
Possible participants: All retrogressed people?

IMO we should try to identify the goals that will attract strong lobbies, so as to improve our chances of success. We could start making baby steps if we demand for the stuff that will benefit Industry, for example, so we can pitch for funding, even

Anyway, just my thoughts..

[Goodintentions]

First of all, I did NOT complete my Masters in the USA. So, technically I am not the beneficiary. However, I checked out the names of all the comittee members et al and sent them letters requesting their support. I also went to my local Congressman's office gave the letter and sought his help.

Well, here is my simple argument:

Any no. is extra visas in favour of the legal EB immigrants should be supported and welcomed. It will help reduce the backlog in a big way. It is certainly better to have a reduction of 50,000 in the line than nothing at all. Every visa counts. As I have said earlier, the system has been designed to support long term indentured labour for the benefit of the corporations who support the political parties. A system that is not time bound can never fufill the genuine aspirations of legal immigrants.

Even if the government gives 100 Visas, let us take it, atleast a minimum of 25 families will be benefitted! :) :) Who cares for legal immigrants, anyway!!!

[rodnyb]

we should add regular quote 2800+2800
we should use Oct2010 number, as your calculation is for whole year
negative
1. Porting, kind of scary, I would say 4K min, 20K max, 8-12K possible
2. New filing, and dependent, I would say 2K
nothing else here..

There are around 35k pending (I+C) as per Jan inventory + 6K portings, which is 41k. Thats why I said July 2007

[gk_2000]

Not everyone is hung up on a GC my friend and not everyone is on medicines irrespective of the category they belong to

That was not anger. I used to feel angry till July 2007 after which i felt who cares about a GC. I bought a house, used EAD to shift jobs (Twice) enjoying my life. So if CIS wants to keep me in this country as a temperory immigrant for 20 years, i dont care. For that matter it is as good as a GC and frankly i dont care to vote in US elections and i got AP to travel. But be certain that CIS will be asked to shove the GC up the you know what when they do decide to grant me one.
My previous post was Plain Speaking and maybe it is time CIS faces some Plain Speaking

I feel the same. Just somehow make pending status 485 happen, and then EAD can be the de-facto GC. F*** the immigration system

[ssreenu]

i am in a similar situation :) EAD+AP is almost as good as GC...but AC21 still restricts us to the "same or similar" job...which isn't too bad..but until there is complete freedom...there will always be a yearning for it

that wasn't anger ? i wonder what your anger looked like pre- July 07? :D


Yeah EAD is "as good as GC" but still you are not a permanent resident, what will you do when you lose your job? leave everything and go back or stay here in US and struggle to pay your mortgage till you get a new job? what if it takes several months to get a new job? Are going to lower your grade to get a low salary to manage your bills? Are you willing apply for unemployment benefits if you are on EAD(this is a big deal if you are on GC)? I honestly want to know the answers to these questions from every memebr who has/is using EAD.

You need a GC to get avoid all the above situations. Think and don't pull back on anything that is started. I am not addressing bugsbunny specifically here, it applies to all. Get to know the benefits of having a GC and then you will automatically get motivated to get a GC. For those who want to know about unemployment benefits read the below article on murthy.com: MurthyDotCom : Unemployment Benefits and Impact on U.S. Immigration (http://www.murthy.com/news/n_unembe.html)

[ssreenu]

Did't you see the movie :eek:
The world is going to end in 2012 and here we all are making predictions for when EB2 wil become cuurrent and EB3 wil get spillover in 2013 and 2014

According to Hindu Panchangam world will not in 2012 and so does the Mayan calendar says.

[PlainSpeak]

working on Porting to EB2

Now that you mentioned upgrading i forgot to tell the forum. I met 2 friends from old company who are in EB3 and we were discussing about GC and i advised them to upgrade to EB2. Initially they were not convinced but i kept after them telling them about the dismal situation of EB3 and they have been convinced. one is workinmg working on getting a job offer with MS + 5 years and other has asked the company to upgrade and both are also working with their lawyers to get everything done smoothly.

They were very happy and i told them not to thank me but to do me a favour by asking 2 of thier friends each to upgarde from EB3 to EB2.

[PlainSpeak]

Yeah EAD is "as good as GC" but still you are not a permanent resident, what will you do when you lose your job?
My friend for a experienced person getting a other job is not a problem because the company giving the job does not care for MS degree only actual work experience

leave everything and go back or stay here in US and struggle to pay your mortgage till you get a new job? what if it takes several months to get a new job? Are going to lower your grade to get a low salary to manage your bills?
Well to feed your stomach you need to work and taking a hit on salary is better than no job right. And for a person who plans buying a house it does not mean just have money to but the house in enough you also need to have 9 months of mortagage payments in your savings. Sheesh i dont have to tell you how to be financially smart especially here in US

Are you willing apply for unemployment benefits if you are on EAD(this is a big deal if you are on GC)? I honestly want to know the answers to these questions from every memebr who has/is using EAD.

Unemployment benefits on EAD is a a big no no, but if you planned you financies well you wil not have to take any Unemployment benefits

You need a GC to get avoid all the above situations. Think and don't pull back on anything that is started. Get to know the benefits of having a GC and then you will automatically get motivated to get a GC.
GC is not the end all and bee all for everyone out here. Some people live and die by it and some people let it come when it comes. The only benefit of GC is you can vote and as i said before who would want to vote for the same politicians who made you wait in the GC dark hole all these years

[ssreenu]

My friend for a experienced person getting a other job is not a problem because the company giving the job does not care for MS degree only actual work experience


Well to feed your stomach you need to work and taking a hit on salary is better than no job right. And for a person who plans buying a house it does not mean just have money to but the house in enough you also need to have 9 months of mortagage payments in your savings. Sheesh i dont have to tell you how to be financially smart especially here in US


Unemployment benefits on EAD is a a big no no, but if you planned you financies well you wil not have to take any Unemployment benefits


GC is not the end all and bee all for everyone out here. Some people live and die by it and some people let it come when it comes. The only benefit of GC is you can vote and as i said before who would want to vote for the same politicians who made you wait in the GC dark hole all these years

I dont think you can vote if you get a GC. Yeah true experienced people will get job easily, you get a job away from your home without getting expenses paid and are forced live away from your family to hold on to your job just to pay for the house that you are not enjoying being in this new job. I dont think you have kids... do you? Getting a new job is easy but moving is not easy(if you have a family). Manging finances does not mean just to save to pay your mortgage. What kind investments do you make apart from savings for mortgage? Everyone has their own way of managing finances not just pooling money in the banks which does no good except for making you feel secure. How much are you saving for your future and your kids future? Saying is easy, but you will not understand the pain if you don't get there. There are several EB people who are holding off on buying a house just for the very same reason: "What will happen next?" I am one among them.

[rkg000]

I dont think you can vote if you get a GC. Yeah true experienced people will get job easily, you get a job away from your home without getting expenses paid and are forced live away from your family to hold on to your job just to pay for the house that you are not enjoying being in this new job. I dont think you have kids... do you? Getting a new job is easy but moving is not easy(if you have a family). Manging finances does not mean just to save to pay your mortgage. What kind investments do you make apart from savings for mortgage? Everyone has their own way of managing finances not just pooling money in the banks which does no good except for making you feel secure. How much are you saving for your future and your kids future? Saying is easy, but you will not understand the pain if you don't get there. There are several EB people who are holding off on buying a house just for the very same reason: "What will happen next?" I am one among them.

Whether you have EAD or GC, one thing that will always be with you is JOB INSECURITY. with GC you have advantage of getting unemployment, though I'm not sure how much that is, but I don't think its a lot. And consider the expense of paying your mortgage, school fee for kids, and other expenses where an average family of 4 spends $6000/month, how long can anyone survive on unemployment. About moving away from home for Jobs, I think employers don't make a distinction between EAD or GC as long as they don't have to sponsor a visa.

[goel_ar]

Now that you mentioned upgrading i forgot to tell the forum. I met 2 friends from old company who are in EB3 and we were discussing about GC and i advised them to upgrade to EB2. Initially they were not convinced but i kept after them telling them about the dismal situation of EB3 and they have been convinced. one is workinmg working on getting a job offer with MS + 5 years and other has asked the company to upgrade and both are also working with their lawyers to get everything done smoothly.

They were very happy and i told them not to thank me but to do me a favour by asking 2 of thier friends each to upgarde from EB3 to EB2.
Good Job !! At this rate, you will be advising them to downgrade to EB3 as there will be very less applicants left in EB3 (lesser than EB1) soon.... :).

[silveroaks]

Hi Teddy,
Why only 1 month? Is this not the first month of the last quarter when the spill overs actually kick in?

Thanks,

[PlainSpeak]

I dont think you can vote if you get a GC. Yeah true experienced people will get job easily, you get a job away from your home without getting expenses paid and are forced live away from your family to hold on to your job just to pay for the house that you are not enjoying being in this new job. I dont think you have kids... do you? Getting a new job is easy but moving is not easy(if you have a family). Manging finances does not mean just to save to pay your mortgage. What kind investments do you make apart from savings for mortgage? Everyone has their own way of managing finances not just pooling money in the banks which does no good except for making you feel secure. How much are you saving for your future and your kids future? Saying is easy, but you will not understand the pain if you don't get there. There are several EB people who are holding off on buying a house just for the very same reason: "What will happen next?" I am one among them.

My friend i am not responsible for your situation and constraints just like higher preference category is not responsible for me to applting in EB3. It is how you plan.

2003 When i first came as a consultant i worked only for 1 year
2003 I asked consultant to apply my GC. H easked me for 10 k and i refused to pay for it
2004 I took an permenant offer with less salary in my second year.
2010 Had been in that same job for 6 years. GC applied in EB3.
2011 Used EAD and moved to new job]

Been living in the same small city and working for less salary for last 9 years. I choose not to move to big city and big salary but was happy in small city and small salary. That is how i planned. The city i live in is not an IT hub but at the same time you can get a 40 $ per hour consulting job for a 6 months contract.

Nothing is easy in life

As for holding off buying a house i say that is wrong. By the house when you have can. If you lose a job then you get another job. But a house gives you stability and stops you from moving around the country like a vagabond. Putting roots in one place allows you to develop contacts which wil help you get a job if you lose one.

So i am not saying you are wrong and that i am right or vice versa

All i am saying is dont stop living your life just because you are waitng for GC. Let both run in parallel

Now with that being said i see that predictions post are picking up in the thread so let us stop thsi off topic discussions til later

Handing over the thread to predictors

[ssreenu]

Whether you have EAD or GC, one thing that will always be with you is JOB INSECURITY. with GC you have advantage of getting unemployment, though I'm not sure how much that is, but I don't think its a lot. And consider the expense of paying your mortgage, school fee for kids, and other expenses where an average family of 4 spends $6000/month, how long can anyone survive on unemployment. About moving away from home for Jobs, I think employers don't make a distinction between EAD or GC as long as they don't have to sponsor a visa.

I am not talking about employers, I am talking about you. Are you ready to move away from your family for a new Job? Don't even think of moving if your kids are in school. If you are ready how long will you stay away? Monthly expenses depends on your life style did u ever see a family of 4 living with a monthly expenses of $2000? I will show you thousands of them. The more luxurious your house is the more mortgage you pay. If you chose to spend $6000 every month thats your choice, unemployment benefits are paid on a national average basis. I am sure one will be intelligent enough to buy a house in an area where he has better job opportunities so that even if you lose one job you will find another one easily and if you didnt think about this then I dont have anything to say... Stay with your family till you find a new job close to home this is where you can take the advantage of the being in US what is the point if you are moving everwhere for a job? Don't you want to settledown in one place?

[ssreenu]

My friend i am not responsible for your situation and constraints just like higher preference category is not responsible for me to applting in EB3. It is how you plan.

2003 When i first came as a consultant i worked only for 1 year
2003 I asked consultant to apply my GC. H easked me for 10 k and i refused to pay for it
2004 I took an permenant offer with less salary in my second year.
2010 Had been in that same job for 6 years. GC applied in EB3.
2011 Used EAD and moved to new job]

Been living in the same small city and working for less salary for last 9 years. I choose not to move to big city and big salary but was happy in small city and small salary. That is how i planned. The city i live in is not an IT hub but at the same time you can get a 40 $ per hour consulting job for a 6 months contract.

Nothing is easy in life

As for holding off buying a house i say that is wrong. By the house when you have can. If you lose a job then you get another job. But a house gives you stability and stops you from moving around the country like a vagabond. Putting roots in one place allows you to develop contacts which wil help you get a job if you lose one.

So i am not saying you are wrong and that i am right or vice versa

All i am saying is dont stop living your life just because you are waitng for GC. Let both run in parallel

Now with that being said i see that predictions post are picking up in the thread so let us stop thsi off topic discussions til later

Handing over the thread to predictors

I totally agree with you, but in your case it is a small city while my case is a big city(NYC). Huge risk is involved to invest in a house and also a huge amount and I changed job after 8 months of coming to US and since then(for 6 years now) I am with the same company drawing a decent salary. Situations vary on a case by case basis depends how you pursue it. And yes we will leave this thread to predictions... Happy predicting :)

[ssreenu]

They were very happy and i told them not to thank me but to do me a favour by asking 2 of thier friends each to upgarde from EB3 to EB2.

This reminds me of a Tollywood movie... lol, jokes apart I've been advocating people to port to EB2 if possible.

[kaarmaa]

Teddy, where are you? Please get your 'poop scoop' to clean up this thread.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
Why only 1 month? Is this not the first month of the last quarter when the spill overs actually kick in?

Thanks,

We are left with 7.5K of the 12K numbers howebver they may choose to apply conservatively again. For every ~ 2.5K there willl be a month of movement. Lets wait for the current inevntory I think they will be incorporating porting to it. Only by July will we see full flow.

[PlainSpeak]

We are left with 7.5K of the 12K numbers howebver they may choose to apply conservatively again. For every ~ 2.5K there willl be a month of movement. Lets wait for the current inevntory I think they will be incorporating porting to it. Only by July will we see full flow.

Is EB going to get any FB spillover this year ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Is EB going to get any FB spillover this year ?

No FB spillover this year that gets allocated at the beginniong of the year, the demand data also shows the cap back at 140K.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, where are you? Please get your 'poop scoop' to clean up this thread.

Thanks, I just cleaned up again. All posts where the language was simply unacceptable coming from educated people or personal insinuations are gone. Discussion is ok, we may all agree or disagree but everyone should have the right to express their opinion. Friends once again back to predictions and calculations.

[Sreeshankar]

My friend for a experienced person getting a other job is not a problem because the company giving the job does not care for MS degree only actual work experience


Well to feed your stomach you need to work and taking a hit on salary is better than no job right. And for a person who plans buying a house it does not mean just have money to but the house in enough you also need to have 9 months of mortagage payments in your savings. Sheesh i dont have to tell you how to be financially smart especially here in US


Unemployment benefits on EAD is a a big no no, but if you planned you financies well you wil not have to take any Unemployment benefits


GC is not the end all and bee all for everyone out here. Some people live and die by it and some people let it come when it comes. The only benefit of GC is you can vote and as i said before who would want to vote for the same politicians who made you wait in the GC dark hole all these years

Only Citizens are eligible/authorized to Vote. GC holders are strict No.
In citizenship form, they specifically ask if someone has ever voted, which is the privilege of citizens. It is against law to register for vote, without being a US citizen.
there are many sites out there, if you would prefer to google it out.
Thanks

[gaz]

Thanks, I just cleaned up again. All posts where the language was simply unacceptable coming from educated people or personal insinuations are gone. Discussion is ok, we may all agree or disagree but everyone should have the right to express their opinion. Friends once again back to predictions and calculations.

pretty sad... maybe a "wall of shame" highlighting these members would help them desist from posting without thinking...?

[belmontboy]

Thanks, I just cleaned up again. All posts where the language was simply unacceptable coming from educated people or personal insinuations are gone. Discussion is ok, we may all agree or disagree but everyone should have the right to express their opinion. Friends once again back to predictions and calculations.

Teddy, can you post expected movement (breakdown monthwise) until oct 2011?

[bugsbunny]

My friend for a experienced person getting a other job is not a problem because the company giving the job does not care for MS degree only actual work experience


Well to feed your stomach you need to work and taking a hit on salary is better than no job right. And for a person who plans buying a house it does not mean just have money to but the house in enough you also need to have 9 months of mortagage payments in your savings. Sheesh i dont have to tell you how to be financially smart especially here in US


Unemployment benefits on EAD is a a big no no, but if you planned you financies well you wil not have to take any Unemployment benefits


GC is not the end all and bee all for everyone out here. Some people live and die by it and some people let it come when it comes. The only benefit of GC is you can vote and as i said before who would want to vote for the same politicians who made you wait in the GC dark hole all these years

Well Said! Just wanted to clear one point...being on unemployment is not good...but its not a deal breaker as long as your are not on it for very long (if you are on it too long...you become a "public charge") The only risk is that when they put out an RFE ...you need to have a "same or similar" job or your application can be denied as you no longer have any job for the GC .

Buying a house is a personal matter based on how you manage your finances and has nothing to do with EAD/GC. You don't have to be a citizen or even a legal resident to own a house.

[gaz]

Teddy, can you post expected movement (breakdown monthwise) until oct 2011?

would it make sense to post the predictions in an excel/ google docs worksheet so that its easier to follow and track?

[bugsbunny]

Thanks, I just cleaned up again. All posts where the language was simply unacceptable coming from educated people or personal insinuations are gone. Discussion is ok, we may all agree or disagree but everyone should have the right to express their opinion. Friends once again back to predictions and calculations.

overdid it a little TK some posts were funny :) even if they were unrelated to topic

[bugsbunny]

Now that you mentioned upgrading i forgot to tell the forum. I met 2 friends from old company who are in EB3 and we were discussing about GC and i advised them to upgrade to EB2. Initially they were not convinced but i kept after them telling them about the dismal situation of EB3 and they have been convinced. one is workinmg working on getting a job offer with MS + 5 years and other has asked the company to upgrade and both are also working with their lawyers to get everything done smoothly.

They were very happy and i told them not to thank me but to do me a favour by asking 2 of thier friends each to upgarde from EB3 to EB2.

i think you are enjoying stoking the flames :(

[tonyHK12]

would it make sense to post the predictions in an excel/ google docs worksheet so that its easier to follow and track?

I had actually posted this on the Advocacy days thread too, having excel sheets and historical graphs is very good.
We have one on our Wiki

This was updated by Coopheal, maybe other docs could be added
http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart

It looks like Teddy will be part of a new number crunching team at IV

[belmontboy]

I had actually posted this on the Advocacy days thread too, having excel sheets and hostorical graphs is very good.
We have one on our Wiki, will add it here shortly

Graph is good

Lets have two graphs: one projected/expected movement month wise and another would be actual

Perhaps you could overlay these two on same graph

Data as numbers are difficult to comprehend and analyze

[gaz]

I had actually posted this on the Advocacy days thread too, having excel sheets and historical graphs is very good.
We have one on our Wiki

This was updated by Coopheal, maybe other docs could be added
I-485 Movement Chart - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart)

It looks like Teddy will be part of a new number crunching team at IV

Cool, thanks! i'm glad TK is joining the team. Always believed that more heads are always a good way to solve problems unless they're sitting on the same shoulder.

Question - Is the progress made by the number crunching team shared somewhere? reason for asking is if the work done by Teddy (and future TK's) starts from the progress the team makes, or, is it from scratch (amounting to a lot of rework and rediscovery)?

thanks,

[tonyHK12]

Question - Is the progress made by the number crunching team shared somewhere? reason for asking is if the work done by Teddy (and future TK's) starts from the progress the team makes, or, is it from scratch (amounting to a lot of rework and rediscovery)?

This team is in the process of being created, and was planned after Advocacy days last week. This data will eventually be presented to USCIS, law makers.
I think this will be a bigger project and would verify inventory data. I would defer to admins on details


Data as numbers are difficult to comprehend and analyze

Exactly, especially by law makers & DOS USCIS

[silveroaks]

We are left with 7.5K of the 12K numbers howebver they may choose to apply conservatively again. For every ~ 2.5K there willl be a month of movement. Lets wait for the current inevntory I think they will be incorporating porting to it. Only by July will we see full flow.

Agreed, but how about the EB2 ROW. Should we not get this as well?

Thanks,

[dontcareaboutGC]

Agreed, but how about the EB2 ROW. Should we not get this as well?

Thanks,
We will but the number will reflect differently if there is a late surge in the last quarter or summer considering the improving economy.. if not around 9K was my expectation but I could be mistaken!

[samswas]

Agreed, but how about the EB2 ROW. Should we not get this as well?

Thanks,

Yeah, We will get this and all other spillovers after July

[TeddyKoochu]

Agreed, but how about the EB2 ROW. Should we not get this as well?

Thanks,

We will get ~ 15K from EB2 ROW this year starting from July.

[cbpds]

If one cant get a job here then its better to go back home, the point made abt EAD was freedom not job security.

We are just fine with an EAD for few years given the H1 situation

Yeah EAD is "as good as GC" but still you are not a permanent resident, what will you do when you lose your job? leave everything and go back or stay here in US and struggle to pay your mortgage till you get a new job? what if it takes several months to get a new job? Are going to lower your grade to get a low salary to manage your bills? Are you willing apply for unemployment benefits if you are on EAD(this is a big deal if you are on GC)? I honestly want to know the answers to these questions from every memebr who has/is using EAD.

You need a GC to get avoid all the above situations. Think and don't pull back on anything that is started. I am not addressing bugsbunny specifically here, it applies to all. Get to know the benefits of having a GC and then you will automatically get motivated to get a GC. For those who want to know about unemployment benefits read the below article on murthy.com: MurthyDotCom : Unemployment Benefits and Impact on U.S. Immigration (http://www.murthy.com/news/n_unembe.html)

[nat23]

We will get ~ 15K from EB2 ROW this year starting from July.

Teddy

Are you saying..........

Worst - 12k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 6k from EB2-ROW = 26k
Best - 24k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 15k from EB2-ROW = 47k

That is a huge bracket

[pappu]

I-485 Movement Chart - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart)

What if there is another line to show expected date movement for bulletins?

[gc_on_demand]

I-485 Movement Chart - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart)

What if there is another line to show expected date movement for bulletins?

DOS won't be able to do that but what DOS can do is they can publish utilization table for past month along with demand for next month.

They can tell us that how many were allocated to EB categories last months. Since for sure they know this numbers and format of table is there in demand data. Its just matter of publishing it.

May be no one have asked it for.. Can we as IV ask for it ? Then I am sure what ever line we put out will not be totally wrong.

[rajuseattle]

gc_on_demand:

Logistically DoS should be able to provide the number of VISAs issued during last month, problem is some of the consular posts request for VISA numbers for CP applicants and we dont know the exact logic of how CP handles the return of their unused numbers, I mean we dont know if they return unused numbers after end of each quarter or at the end of the first 3 quarters? USCIS AoS adjudication is a definite stats, whereas CP is still a moving target for DoS. I see this is the main reason behind why DoS unable to publish the issued /used EB numbers per month/quarter.

[belmontboy]

I-485 Movement Chart - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart)

What if there is another line to show expected date movement for bulletins?

Yeah, thats what i have been asking for.

The graphs in wiki are confusing. They could be made simple: have one graph for each category (ex: Eb2-I, EB2-C, EB3-I..etc). Each graph overlays expected movement, actual movement against bulletin months.

[anura]

I-485 Movement Chart - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart)

What if there is another line to show expected date movement for bulletins?

Then there would be multiple lines and dates as there are different data analyzers on this forum who have their own predicted cutoff dates. However I understand that TK and others are going to sit and work on some numbers. They can as well arrive at a reasonable estimate and incorporate it in the graphs.

[django.stone]

why is EB2I and EB2C not have same PD in may bulletin? isn't that a req for spillover?

[mhssatya]

When can I expect my date (Oct 06) to be current ? Anybody?

[samswas]

why is EB2I and EB2C not have same PD in may bulletin? isn't that a req for spillover?

Spillover is only applied to EB2I in May Bulletin. China is still using its regular Quota of 2800

[belmontboy]

When can I expect my date (Oct 06) to be current ? Anybody?

Sep 2011

[anura]

Spillover is only applied to EB2I in May Bulletin. China is still using its regular Quota of 2800

Spillover is only applied in June and may show up in the bulletin that comes in May. :)

[samswas]

Spillover is only applied in June and may show up in the bulletin that comes in May. :)

It is little different this year. They have started using some of the numbers from the 12000 that they said is coming to EB2 from EB1 due to unusual low demand EB1 during first 2 quarters. They must have used only around 3000 (if portings stay the way we expected), thats why dates for India moved around 2 months (made my day :D ........ I'm current from next month). Since China is still ahead of India, they won't get any spillover until India dates reach dates of China!

[gcwait2007]

We have the following conservative figures:

EB1 : 12000
EB5 : 8000
EB2 ROW: 10000

Total 30,000 for spill over.

The unknown are porting and invisible demand lying in NVC & Consular processing. There are some interesting polls and collection of data going around on porting. What I understand is that one third of the polled porters (total polled 428) belong to 2006 and 2007, presumably who already filed in July 07 fiasco. I understand from Ron Gotcher's forum that there is some invisible demand which is not part of demand data. Considering these aspects, I would allocate 7500 visas (25%) for porters and invisible demand. The Net spillover to original eb2 india and china could be in the range of 22.5K, which would be enough to cross into 2007and may reach March 2007?!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Are you saying..........

Worst - 12k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 6k from EB2-ROW = 26k
Best - 24k from EB1 + 8k from EB5 + 15k from EB2-ROW = 47k

That is a huge bracket

Here is what I would say.

EB2 I/C Regular Cap ~ 6K.
EB1 - 12 - 24K.
EB5 - 8K
EB2 ROW - 12 - 18K.

This gives the maximum as 50K this is way overstreatched this or something which is 8-10K lesser is capable of pulling dates till Jul - Aug 2007. The lowerbound of ~ 36K is the realistic figure it will take us to Feb - Apr 2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

I-485 Movement Chart - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/I-485_Movement_Chart)

What if there is another line to show expected date movement for bulletins?

Pappu if there is a publication or some kind of transparency say in the demand data as to how many numbers will be allocated it will be a great help. I think this will have to come from DOS. For EB3 I & ROW I believe the allocation is being uniformly done and for EB1 and EB2 ROW there is no issue as they are current the really dynamic categories are EB2 I/C. If DOS can provide that information officially it will be great. For the May bulletin there were reports that 12K is available but all available insights and indicators suggest that this number was not allocated, of course its their prerogative to allocate the numbers and since they are a responsible government agency they have to be careful. We are all good even if the allocation comes in Sep but yes if this is published we can very accurately predict the VB.

[anura]

Here is what I would say.

EB2 I/C Regular Cap ~ 6K.
EB1 - 12 - 24K.
EB5 - 8K
EB2 ROW - 12 - 18K.

This gives the maximum as 50K this is way overstreatched this or something which is 8-10K lesser is capable of pulling dates till Jul - Aug 2007. The lowerbound of ~ 36K is the realistic figure it will take us to Feb - Apr 2007.

When all of it is said and done (which may be never) but at least when TK gets his GC, all of us should send TK a bouquet for all his efforts. You are a good cat Garfield, you are a good cat. :)

[tonyHK12]

You are a good cat Garfield, you are a good cat. :)

Crunching numbers.... with his baseball bat :)

[silveroaks]

When all this is said and done (which may be never) but at least when TK gets his GC, all of us should send TK a bouquet for all his efforts. You are a good cat Garfield, you are a good cat.

Agreed. Very selfless, classy and knowledgeable.

[goel_ar]

We are left with 7.5K of the 12K numbers howebver they may choose to apply conservatively again. For every ~ 2.5K there willl be a month of movement. Lets wait for the current inevntory I think they will be incorporating porting to it. Only by July will we see full flow.
Won't we have more than 7.5k for spillover in July-Sep. 12k was only left from first 6 months.so if it is 24k , then @ rate of 2.5k p/month movement. - we should see 8 more months of movement - taking us to : march/2007.

[pappu]

Pappu if there is a publication or some kind of transparency say in the demand data as to how many numbers will be allocated it will be a great help. I think this will have to come from DOS. For EB3 I & ROW I believe the allocation is being uniformly done and for EB1 and EB2 ROW there is no issue as they are current the really dynamic categories are EB2 I/C. If DOS can provide that information officially it will be great. For the May bulletin there were reports that 12K is available but all available insights and indicators suggest that this number was not allocated, of course its their prerogative to allocate the numbers and since they are a responsible government agency they have to be careful. We are all good even if the allocation comes in Sep but yes if this is published we can very accurately predict the VB.

Convincing a department for any additional workload is a challenge. We keep trying.

The 12 K/fast date movement has not gone away. There was just too much hype on websites. Last quarter should see rapid movement when DOS has better visibility of all available numbers.

Even if there are not enough numbers in EB2, I believe the dates could move fast if they consider our recommendation. Talk to VBkris now that you are in the IV number analysis team. He will provide more insights on how we think faster advancement of dates is important in the last quarter of this year and going into next year for EB2 I/C

[Michael chertoff]

We all should work together for everything....Please dont delete this post.

[samswas]

Here is what I would say.

EB2 I/C Regular Cap ~ 6K.
EB1 - 12 - 24K.
EB5 - 8K
EB2 ROW - 12 - 18K.

This gives the maximum as 50K this is way overstreatched this or something which is 8-10K lesser is capable of pulling dates till Jul - Aug 2007. The lowerbound of ~ 36K is the realistic figure it will take us to Feb - Apr 2007.

This got to be close to what we will see in coming months.
The fact that they started using spillover before last quarter makes me think that they are expecting more spillover then last year, so total spillover should be more then 20k (last year EB2I & EB2C got around 26k - 6k regular~20k).

And looking at the movement last year, there will be much better movement until August then in September, as they don't want to keep more numbers in the last month and waste them. Last movement was 240 days in July, 120 in August and 67 days in September. (Please correct me, if I'm wrong with last year movement )

Lets hope for the best.

[anura]

242, 151 and 68 days for Jul, Aug, Sep, respectively .

[GC_Info]

When can I expect my date (Oct 06) to be current ? Anybody?

It is not just when but also how. It is better incremental than bumping dates at once and cause bottle neck to process I-485 approval and new I-485 applications and issuing EADs whos PDs are not current. Good luck to all of us.

[PlainSpeak]

It is not just when but also how. It is better incremental than bumping dates at once and cause bottle neck to process I-485 approval and new I-485 applications and issuing EADs whos PDs are not current. Good luck to all of us.

Yes good luck to all of you !! :)

[GC_Info]

It is not just when but also how. It is better incremental than bumping dates at once and cause bottle neck to process I-485 approval and new I-485 applications and issuing EADs whos PDs are not current. Good luck to all of us.

Sometimes I wonder why they do not implement Quarterly spill over instead of spilling all at once and choking this period of time every year. Imagine u want to renew your EAD and you will never be able to get it on time. The way they issue visas is not efficient to accommodate needs of various applicants. Years are passing and they never seems have learnt any thing. Yet another year and same anxiety for all applicants.

[samswas]

242, 151 and 68 days for Jul, Aug, Sep, respectively .

Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

This got to be close to what we will see in coming months.
The fact that they started using spillover before last quarter makes me think that they are expecting more spillover then last year, so total spillover should be more then 20k (last year EB2I & EB2C got around 26k - 6k regular~20k).

And looking at the movement last year, there will be much better movement until August then in September, as they don't want to keep more numbers in the last month and waste them. Last movement was 240 days in July, 120 in August and 67 days in September. (Please correct me, if I'm wrong with last year movement )

Lets hope for the best.

We should look at this in terms of numbers, last year the July date movement was large in terms of dates because there were very few people within those dates. This year the expected movement in terms of numbers will be much larger as last year EB1 gave only 3K despite the higher annual cap of 150K to 140K this year however this year we are hearing that 12K of EB1 spillover is available after half year. The density from mid 2006 to mid 2007 is ~ 2600 PM for I+C while it was only 600 to 700 in 2005.

[anura]

The density from mid 2006 to mid 2007 is ~ 2600 PM for I+C while it was only 600 to 700 in 2005.

That is the truth. And the implications of high pending cases per month can really throw a wrench (or a spanner) in many predictions. Even if the spillovers keep the visa availability nominal, is CIS manpower capable of muscling through such numbers? This is what raises fear that CIS might even waste visas at the end of FY.

[venkspr]

Here is the data that I could gather for 2006. This includes all "PERM" filings, not just EB2

I am not sure what the % assumption should be Eb2 vs Eb3. Have only considered certified and certified expired cases.

Month CHINA INDIA Total
January 509 1788 2297
February 499 1729 2228
March 589 2225 2814
April 496 1648 2144
May 536 1948 2484
June 570 2226 2796
July 585 1925 2510
August 645 2150 2795
September 714 2135 2849
October 491 1212 1703
November 516 1541 2057
December 629 1771 2400
Total 6779 22298 29077

[gc_peshwa]

Here is the data that I could gather for 2006. This includes all "PERM" filings, not just EB2

I am not sure what the % assumption should be Eb2 vs Eb3. Have only considered certified and certified expired cases.

Month CHINA INDIA Total
January 509 1788 2297
February 499 1729 2228
March 589 2225 2814
April 496 1648 2144
May 536 1948 2484
June 570 2226 2796
July 585 1925 2510
August 645 2150 2795
September 714 2135 2849
October 491 1212 1703
November 516 1541 2057
December 629 1771 2400
Total 6779 22298 29077

Thats some good info that you've dug up. This points to a visa demand of ~30K to overcome Dec 06. If visa supply remains just like last year, its quite likely that cutoff dates will stagnate around Dec 06/ Jan 07.:mad:

[belmontboy]

Thats some good info that you've dug up. This points to a visa demand of ~30K to overcome Dec 06. If visa supply remains just like last year, its quite likely that cutoff dates will stagnate around Dec 06/ Jan 07.:mad:

start the count from july month dude.

[gc_peshwa]

start the count from july month dude.

I did belmont dudette. Thats based on my calculations. I dont mind being wrong though.

[snathan]

That is the truth. And the implications of high pending cases per month can really throw a wrench (or a spanner) in many predictions. Even if the spillovers keep the visa availability nominal, is CIS manpower capable of muscling through such numbers? This is what raises fear that CIS might even waste visas at the end of FY.

This is what I am also fearing...but people are saying since most of the cases are preadjusticated they wouldnt waste the numbers....but what if they do.:confused:

[dummgelauft]

start the count from july month dude.

Or may, at the most.

[anura]

This is what I am also fearing...but people are saying since most of the cases are preadjusticated they wouldnt waste the numbers....but what if they do.:confused:

Let us wait patiently (we know what patience is) until the next inventory release. It will show us a bit of the CIS's efficiency in working through the preadjudicated files. If they do not collapse the mountain I see in (tinyurl.com/3jtnhnx) by the end of this FY, I would be so :(.

[samswas]

We should look at this in terms of numbers, last year the July date movement was large in terms of dates because there were very few people within those dates. This year the expected movement in terms of numbers will be much larger as last year EB1 gave only 3K despite the higher annual cap of 150K to 140K this year however this year we are hearing that 12K of EB1 spillover is available after half year. The density from mid 2006 to mid 2007 is ~ 2600 PM for I+C while it was only 600 to 700 in 2005.

Your right! We should look at numbers then days movement. I had a glance at the original EB2 - EB3 predictions thread to see, how many cases are pending during these dates movement last year, and I think this is what it was -

Around 7k each month for July and Aug, and 4.5k in last 67 days for Sep. (please feel free to correct these numbers, if anyone have exact numbers). So I it was more cases until Aug then in Sep.

Yep only 140k this year vs 150k last year. I'm still stuck at why they move dates in May .. even with less number of numbers this year. It had to do with more spillover numbers to EB2 then last year?

[rodnyb]

It happened similaly in 2009.
1. DOS knows CIS processing time is > 4 months, so all new apps won't be in demand after May
2. DOS will almost have a clear snap shot of demand at end of May to allocate next 4 months. So June demand data is critical
3. DOS/CIS communicate better now (as we see DOS even said CIS told them invisible demand and DOS considered that), so DOS will consider
a. CIS denail/RFE rate for mostly pre-adjudicated EB2 cases (I would say, very low, and CIS could approve those quickly)
b. CIS workload (summer vacation), so move fastest in July, and maximize in Aug, and trying not to waste anything in Sept

Similar to Teddy's, mine total supply for EB2 I/C this year (from Oct2010 to Sept 2011) will be around
1. EB1 12-24K (due to mostly EB1C crack down)
2. EB2 ROW 8-12K (PERM down, economy, and most EB1C crack is Indian bodyshops and cannot submit EB2I yet)
3. EB2 I/C regular quota 2800x2 (less 400 than last year due to no FB spill over)
4. Eb5/4 6k-10K (no big change than last year)

So about 32K to 52K, realistically, could be 42K
the demand at Oct2010 (CIS is 38K, DOS is 34K), so 36K
but porting could be 6K to 12K, and new apps (ppl who missed Jyly2007) 2K
Total demand realistically is 46K
Porting could be more severe next year!!!

So March2007 is almost a guarantee. If supply is greater than 40K, DOS/CIS could want some buffer for demand and can move beyond July2007 (those new apps wont get approved, but CIS can take them) and move beyond July 2007 to late 2007.

I will say EB2I PD for Sept 2011 will be
100% pass Feb. 2007
50% pass April 2007
20% between May to July 2007
2-5% to late 2007

Retrogress for Oct. 2011 to Feb.2007 due to porting and new app




242, 151 and 68 days for Jul, Aug, Sep, respectively .

[gc_peshwa]

If they do not collapse the mountain I see in (tinyurl.com/3jtnhnx) by the end of this FY, I would be so :(.

Thats exactly the problem! The mountain keeps piling up....The demand for EB2/3 for month of May 11 is HIGHER than Aprill 11. Shouldnt it be reducing? If for whatever reason this demand keeps surging the initial 30K spillover visas would easily be consumed and the dates wont move much.

[gc_peshwa]

Have we considered what will the EB1C crackdown folks do next year? or even may be doing now? I guess the spillover from Eb1C due to the supposed crackdown is very shortlived and pertains only to this year i.e FY 2011. Come FY 2012 we are gonna see double demand, Eb1C folks for FY 2011+ EBC folks for FY2012 due to relaxation in the Kazarian memo.

Or if possible those guys would apply in EB2. But then again they can not impact the demand. However if they turn into significant EB2 ROW applicants, they certainly might impact the visa demand.

[GC_1000Watt]

Have we considered what will the EB1C crackdown folks do next year? or even may be doing now? I guess the spillover from Eb1C due to the supposed crackdown is very shortlived and pertains only to this year i.e FY 2011. Come FY 2012 we are gonna see double demand, Eb1C folks for FY 2011+ EBC folks for FY2012 due to relaxation in the Kazarian memo.

Or if possible those guys would apply in EB2. But then again they can not impact the demand. However if they turn into significant EB2 ROW applicants, they certainly might impact the visa demand.

I was wondering if you are assuming or you know that there will be some relaxation in the kazarian memo?
Thanks.

[rodnyb]

EB1C is only decreasing india/china.. ROW has no difference as to EB1 or 2, both current for them. Those EB1C prob have PD after 2010, on impact on EB2 yet

Have we considered what will the EB1C crackdown folks do next year? or even may be doing now? I guess the spillover from Eb1C due to the supposed crackdown is very shortlived and pertains only to this year i.e FY 2011. Come FY 2012 we are gonna see double demand, Eb1C folks for FY 2011+ EBC folks for FY2012 due to relaxation in the Kazarian memo.

Or if possible those guys would apply in EB2. But then again they can not impact the demand. However if they turn into significant EB2 ROW applicants, they certainly might impact the visa demand.

[anura]

Today's (04-16-11) non-immigrant blogspot predictions for June VB cutoff date movement are,
EB3-India - 22 April 2002.
EB2-India - 15 July 2006
EB2-China - 08 August 2006.

Have a feeling they are a bit conservative but may be not. CIS will have to process through approximately 7000 EB2 preadjudicated applications for May and June as per the Jan'11 inventory plus unknown number of any new applications. Looks daunting but we may not know until the VB and inventory come out. Past data have shown that CIS can process >300 and <1500 applications a month (will have to check that again). That is way less than 3000 per month that they will now face.

[anura]

Here is the CIS clearance rate not taking into account the incoming valid applications as they process. First quarter of 2010FY they were able to clear at the rate of 1414.28 applications per month. However during the a 5 month period (May-Oct) in 2010 they cleared at the rate of 2856.4 per month. Still those numbers are less than ~3000 per month.

[glimmerOfHope]

Today's (04-16-11) non-immigrant blogspot predictions for June VB cutoff date movement are,
EB3-India - 22 April 2002.
EB2-India - 15 July 2006
EB2-China - 08 August 2006.

Have a feeling they are a bit conservative but may be not. CIS will have to process through approximately 7000 EB2 preadjudicated applications for May and June as per the Jan'11 inventory plus unknown number of any new applications. Looks daunting but we may not know until the VB and inventory come out. Past data have shown that CIS can process >300 and <1500 applications a month (will have to check that again). That is way less than 3000 per month that they will now face.

What am I missing? USCIS/DOS together issue nearly 1 Million Immigrant visas including family based and all other categories every year.

Even if they issue less than 50% of these visas in AOS, that's about 500k spread over 230 working days which gives a visa issuing capacity of about 2100 per day. If they issue even 250K visas, they still have capacity of 1000 visas per day.

In FY2010 they issued 150K EB visas in 1 yr, that's about 650 per day (or remove about 20k CP cases, that's still 565 per day). In the last 3 months, they issued 20K visas to EB2I/C in 56 working days (if I am not wrong last visa was issued Sept 17th 2010), that comes to about 357 per day (Note that I have excluded the annual cap of about 6.5K for this calculation).

USCIS have different departments/personnel for FB and EB immigration but still can't they divert some of this work force to work on pre-adjudicated cases?

I believe they definitely have the resources to handle more applications, its just that DOS is being cautious this time around.

Good Luck.

[anura]

glimmerOfHope:
I do not know if you can notice it, but you are actually, well almost, saying the same thing I've said. Only difference is that I am only considering the data for EB2 India. For example, you've mentioned 20k EB2I/C in the last quarter of FY10. I believe you are referring to the 20k spillover in 2010. Approximately 16000 of the 20k went to India. They were the once that disappeared in the inventory released between May'10 and Oct'10. Approximately 2900 per month. My precision is limited to the frequency of the inventory released by CIS, which is obviously 3 or 4 months. With reference to your 20k in 56 days, CIS did start work in July and complete in Sep and that works out to 60 days. Then obviously I am underestimating CIS. In that case they can also easily clear the expected spillover, a spillover some have estimated as between 30-45k. Especially as CIS is starting the work in earnest on May 1st this year, while last year they waited till July. Hmmm... this also tells us that they are expecting the large spillover this year and consequent cutoff date movement. Overall this makes me more optimistic. Thanks for the reply and Cheers.

PS: Well when I say that it makes me more optimistic, I was not referring to my PD in Nov'10. However, glimmerOfHope is good to go. :)

[FraudGultee]

any news, when it is getting published? because that will put lot of porting speculations to rest and then better numbers can be predicted (no guarentees tough if they will be good as you are up against USICS :D)

[Michael chertoff]

Just found this document. I thought it may be helpful to someone.

MC

[ascetic]

TSC needs all the help I assume. Today they also increased their I-485 processing time to 6.5 months.

[anura]

TSC needs all the help I assume. Today they also increased their I-485 processing time to 6.5 months.

Yep they are currently processing EB 485s as of Aug 11, 2010.

[glimmerOfHope]

Yep they are currently processing EB 485s as of Aug 11, 2010.

Does it mean more SOFAD for EB2-I/C?

Come July/Aug while they are still processing applications from Nov/Dec 2010, they can't use much of EB1 and EB2ROW 2011 quota.

:D I am getting evil thoughts :cool:

[rajuseattle]

MC:

It was a useful information about following up AoS cases with TSC, but dont know why people didnt like it.

[NNReddy]

Will EB3 see any light of the day, will it move into 2003 atleast 2012 and 2013. I am assuming there will be spillover to EB3 once EB2 crosses 2008. There are not lot of applicants in EB2 in 2008 and 2009.

[anura]

With this conclude, I am sure 2007 EB2 can never be seen this year.
Something should and must come up for Master's (US based) who got stuck here since long time.

Guys in EB2 (w/o porting) I know how much you all frustrated. I can clearly sense it. But what we can do Nothing but let it out here in these forums.

Yes mach1348, there are some extremely bad signs for EB2. No, these are not instincts or feelings. Current numbers do seem to indicate the if there is no annul spillover of approximately 45-50K EB2 will continue to retrogress*. The current movement in May cutoff dates are to actually accommodate the porting applications. They cannot be refused a visa as they had a PD from the past... extreme past in some cases. This fiscal year porting applications will cost more than 7000 and possibly less than 12000 visas. These are pessimistic predictions that will strand the EB2 in Nov 2006 this FY.

*That is every year from this year onward.

[TeddyKoochu]

Following is what we will most likely get to EB2.

EB1 - 12K
EB2 ROW - 12K
EB5 - 8K
Regular cap 5.5 K.

Even if we discount 7.5K we still get 30K that will certainly take dates to Feb 2007

[vdlrao]

Following is what we will most likely get to EB2.

EB1 - 12K
EB2 ROW - 12K
EB5 - 8K
Regular cap 5.5 K.

Even if we discount 7.5K we still get 30K that will certainly take dates to Feb 2007


Yes Teddy. Theere won't be any retrogression in EB2 India for a given fiscal year, eventhough there may be little or no retrogression monthly vise. Going forward we could expect many more portings but still the EB2 I dates move forward only, but may not be in a superfast way.

[belmontboy]

Following is what we will most likely get to EB2.

EB1 - 12K
EB2 ROW - 12K
EB5 - 8K
Regular cap 5.5 K.

Even if we discount 7.5K we still get 30K that will certainly take dates to Feb 2007

Whoa! The numbers keep changing.

I thpught we were going to get 24k (total) from EB1

[vkcs]

Its depressing to comprehend the reality that we have to wait for another 5-10 years or even more to get the GC. Is it worth continuing to live in this state of limbo? Time to throw in the towel and look else where to start a new life? :(

[TeddyKoochu]

Whoa! The numbers keep changing.

I thpught we were going to get 24k (total) from EB1

This is for a conservative calculation Iam assuming 12K, for now we are still waiting for even 12K.

[anura]

Its depressing to comprehend the reality that we have to wait for another 5-10 years or even more to get the GC. Is it worth continuing to live in this state of limbo? Time to throw in the towel and look else where to start a new life? :(

I will be watching the data and forums carefully till September this year. Then I am planning to just do what you say. In fact I am so frustrated with the system I am strongly starting to believe that I am actually wasting my skills in the USA. My last post in this forum will be sometimes in September. And that is it.

[belmontboy]

I will be watching the data and forums carefully till September this year. Then I am planning to just do what you say. In fact I am so frustrated with the system I am strongly starting to believe that I am actually wasting my skills in the USA. My last post in this forum will be sometimes in September. And that is it.

Its been only 6 months and you give up so soon?

[gc_peshwa]

Its depressing to comprehend the reality that we have to wait for another 5-10 years or even more to get the GC. Is it worth continuing to live in this state of limbo? Time to throw in the towel and look else where to start a new life? :(
Nope. Time to fight for our future. We did the same in our country, braved a lot of difficulties and came here. Now we need to do that all over again here, just for staying in this country some more:confused:
We've to unite and complete action items in initiatives like the 485 filing campaign when dates not current.

[voicerj]

I will be watching the data and forums carefully till September this year. Then I am planning to just do what you say. In fact I am so frustrated with the system I am strongly starting to believe that I am actually wasting my skills in the USA. My last post in this forum will be sometimes in September. And that is it.

Dude i just +1 you, i am planning to do the same thing.

[dummgelauft]

Dude i just +1 you, i am planning to do the same thing.

If go ahead and actually do what you both have just said, God bless you.
No point in putting yourself thru this virtual torture.

[reddymjm]

Plainspeak,

Lets start porting ours. I have just started thinking on mine today.

[PlainSpeak]

Plainspeak,

Lets start porting ours. I have just started thinking on mine today.

reddymjm
If you have a 4 years degree then you should be good for upgrading because you have gained the 5 years experience while waiting for your EB3 application. You should not have any problem. I wish you all the best in your upgrade attempt and i wish everyone who can upgrade legally should upgrade as soon as possible.

Today's news mentioned about strong housing stats. Economic recovery is on the way and thing will get better. This economic climate will last for some time, so anyone who is eligible for upgrade should do so when the economy is doing good

[srinath_madas]

Just found this document. I thought it may be helpful to someone.

MC


The Email provided in the document was wrong. Got a mail delivery error. Thanks for pointing to the document though

[PrinceVA]

" tarikh pe tarikh, tarikh pe tarikh, tarikh pe tarikh.

tarikh pe tarikh milti rahi hai hame, nahi mila to sirf EAD/GC. "

aur tarikh milti bhi hai to next visa bulletin me vapas chali jati hai.

Was expecting date to go till the July 2007 after hearing a lot of Visa spill over to EB2 and so much other stuff but after reading many posts here I am thinking that I will have to wait till 2014 - 2015. (Another Tarikh..) :D

[ascetic]

The Email provided in the document was wrong. Got a mail delivery error. Thanks for pointing to the document though

That document was prepared by CIS and meant for AILA. CIS has lots to gain by providing AILA with a non-operational and fictitious email address. Just kidding.

When the documents specifically says AILA members can email CIS and get certain info about their clients, why would you email to that address? Are you an AILA member?

[ascetic]

"Was expecting date to go till the July 2007 after hearing a lot of Visa spill over to EB2 and so much other stuff but after reading many posts here I am thinking that I will have to wait till 2014 - 2015. (Another Tarikh..) :D

and me wait till 2017. gugugaga... me baby in this waiting game. (what do you mean, no emoticon for a crying baby?)

[PrinceVA]

and me wait till 2017. gugugaga... me baby in this waiting game. (what do you mean, no emoticon for a crying baby?)

As others said, Please go and apply for CANADA/UK/AUS emmigration visas. One of my friend went to UK and he is making handsome there plus he is at his own, no employer slavery.

I have my 140 approved so I am at no where :). (Na idhar ka, na udhar ka..)

[TeddyKoochu]

Lets focus on Predictions and calculations please. Friends the scope of this blog is to numerically calculate porting and its impact on date movements. For any discussion we should refrain from name calling or personal remarks, in the ineterst of fairness I have cleaned the entire discussion some of which was good, however lets regain focus on the subject of Predictions & Calculations.

[red200]

Teddy,

The labors these days are getting approved fast (I have two friends who got them approved recently)
Does this mean the load on DOL is less and the EB2 ROW spill over will be more?
Are we confident that EB2 row spill over is going to be atleast 8K ?
do we have any analysis to back this figure

It seems if we get 17K from EB1 for the whole year.
10 K from EB2 row
5 K from EB4 & EB5
5.5 K from regular quota.

Then There seems to be a possibility that july 2007 end can be reached.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

The labors these days are getting approved fast (I have two friends who got them approved recently)
Does this mean the load on DOL is less and the EB2 ROW spill over will be more?
Are we confident that EB2 row spill over is going to be atleast 8K ?
do we have any analysis to back this figure

It seems if we get 17K from EB1 for the whole year.
10 K from EB2 row
5 K from EB4 & EB5
5.5 K from regular quota.

Then There seems to be a possibility that july 2007 end can be reached.

Labors getting approved faster would accelerate EB2 ROW approvals as well the numbers / volume has not really come down. Eb2 ROW overall approvals for 485 are down when compared to last year on that site the numbers are quite large. So we should get 11-12K from EB2 ROW atleast which is what we got last year.

[amitk81]

Labors getting approved faster would accelerate EB2 ROW approvals as well the numbers / volume has not really come down. Eb2 ROW overall approvals for 485 are down when compared to last year on that site the numbers are quite large. So we should get 11-12K from EB2 ROW atleast which is what we got last year.


Teddy,
Do we have numbers for labor approvals for 2010 (May- Dec) and 2011 (until April), if not where can we find that data?

thanks
Amit

[anura]

Teddy,
Do we have numbers for labor approvals for 2010 (May- Dec) and 2011 (until April), if not where can we find that data?
Amit

Please check here.
Foreign Labor Certification Disclosure File List (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm)
Cheers.

[red200]

Labors getting approved faster would accelerate EB2 ROW approvals as well the numbers / volume has not really come down. Eb2 ROW overall approvals for 485 are down when compared to last year on that site the numbers are quite large. So we should get 11-12K from EB2 ROW atleast which is what we got last year.

Teddy,

Just looked at the link posted by aruna for 1st quarter of FY 2011 , ie Oct 2010 till Dec end 2010.

it seems there are 8052 application other than india, china. that are certified in the same period.

[gcwait2007]

Following is what we will most likely get to EB2.

EB1 - 12K
EB2 ROW - 12K
EB5 - 8K
Regular cap 5.5 K.

Even if we discount 7.5K we still get 30K that will certainly take dates to Feb 2007

EB2 ROW estimated spillover @12K is high. With M & P porting, I feel that the spillover should be in the range of 8K on conservative basis and 10K at the high level.

EB1 = 12K
EB2 ROW = 8K
EB5 = 7K
Regular = 2.8K

We should get about 30K in total. Dates should cross into 2007. Reaching Feb 2007 depends on the upgrades (why these are called 'porters'?).

[anura]

EB1 = 12K
EB2 ROW = 8K
EB5 = 7K
Regular = 2.8K
We should get about 30K in total. Dates should cross into 2007. Reaching Feb 2007 depends on the upgrades (why these are called 'porters'?).

2.8k is already gone, and a part of the 12k is being currently used. Even then do you believe that it can cross into 2007 ?

PS: Porter (pronounced po-rr-thA) is from the French root for 'to carry'. I believe upgraders carry something over... perhaps the PD? :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Just looked at the link posted by aruna for 1st quarter of FY 2011 , ie Oct 2010 till Dec end 2010.

it seems there are 8052 application other than india, china. that are certified in the same period.

EB2 ROW estimated spillover @12K is high. With M & P porting, I feel that the spillover should be in the range of 8K on conservative basis and 10K at the high level.

EB1 = 12K
EB2 ROW = 8K
EB5 = 7K
Regular = 2.8K

We should get about 30K in total. Dates should cross into 2007. Reaching Feb 2007 depends on the upgrades (why these are called 'porters'?).



Lets do an emprical calculation out of this. We wil have to make a judgement on EB2 to EB3 lets assume for ROW its 50-50 and then multiply with the dependants factor so we are virtually back to 8K. Multiplying it by 4 we get 32K. Which would imply that we hardly get 3K spillover from ROW. However if we assume the split to be 40-60 from Eb2 - EB3 we get an differebnt figure 8000 * 40 / 100 * 2 (dependants factor) * 4 (Quarters) = 25.6K. This brings us close to ~ 12K spillover being predicted. The real key is the EB2 to EB3 spilit for ROW.

[GC_VINNU]

Teddy,

In the PERM approval data log, wherever they mentioned LEVEL as II , it mean EB2.

"C-12345-67890","PERM",1/1/2007 12:34:00,"Certified","Employer, INC.","1 GREAT AVENUE",,"SAN FRANCISCO","CA","94109",,"Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services","IT","15-1051.00","Systems Analyst","Level II",22.08,"hr",<salary>,,"yr","San Francisco","CA","<country of citizenship>","<visa_type>"