EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[h1_b_visa_holder]

How much did EB2-C demand got reduced? Anyone has the last month's no for EB2-C

[ascetic]

Does anyone have the demand data for May 2011 to use as a comparison?

http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/images/7/75/2011_04_EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[asdfred]

reduction of 3000 in number

[h1_b_visa_holder]

http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/images/7/75/2011_04_EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Thanks, So EB2-C reduced by 250, EB3-I by 500 and EB2-I by 2850...

cool.. we are getting there ... though very slowly ...

Eagerly waiting for EB2 dates to be C so that at least I can get EAD :D

[ascetic]

Teddy..whats your latest prediction based on the demand data released today

EB2I is reduced by approximately 3000. So why not move the cutoff dates to September or October 2006? But what if it is December.... that is what I think is going to happen. :)

[belmontboy]

Agreed... so I think we (EB2-I) should move by 1-2 months now ...

will move about 3 months, as porting is not bad as they expected.

[GCFrenzy]

How much did EB2-C demand got reduced? Anyone has the last month's no for EB2-C

Comparing with last month demand data ...


----------EB2-C EB2-I Other countries total
1 Jan 2006 -225 -2875 0 -3100
1 Jan 2007 -225 -2875 0 -3100
1 Jan 2008 -250 -2850 -25 -3075

[sath2000]

Do you guys notice EB3-ROW reduced by 1500 from May demand data to June Demand Data.
While April to May was only reduced by 175.

EB3-ROW
Apr May June
40,325 40,150 38,650

[sath2000]

Do you guys notice EB3-ROW reduced by 1500 from May demand data to June Demand Data.
While April to May was only reduced by 175.

EB3-ROW
Apr May June
40,325 40,150 38,650

[smuggymba]

Do you guys notice EB3-ROW reduced by 1500 from May demand data to June Demand Data.
While April to May was only reduced by 175.

EB3-ROW
Apr May June
40,325 40,150 38,650

good to see many new members joining as july cheesecake nears:D

[pbuckeye]

Do you guys notice EB3-ROW reduced by 1500 from May demand data to June Demand Data.
While April to May was only reduced by 175.

EB3-ROW
Apr May June
40,325 40,150 38,650

Is it within the monthly numerical limits (all ROW countries combined could have a large monthly quota)? If not, could the reason be that some of the EB1 12K spillover was applied to it (as far as I understand - spillover wont flow to EB3 ROW until EB2 is current)?

[GC_ASP]

Good observation. It seems lot of porting is happening in ROW. Any comments?

Do you guys notice EB3-ROW reduced by 1500 from May demand data to June Demand Data.
While April to May was only reduced by 175.

EB3-ROW
Apr May June
40,325 40,150 38,650

[pbuckeye]

Good observation. It seems lot of porting is happening in ROW. Any comments?

Even if it was porting/upgrade, what are the chances that only 150 people with PD in April ported and 1500 people with PD in May did.

[vdlrao]

Demand Data as of May 9, 2011

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Thanks Pappu.

[akshaya10001]

Based on demand data it looks EB3 porting for last month is 275 cases,
changes in demand
Jan 2003 - 200 ==> EB3 regular quota
Jan 2004 -250-(200 before Jan 2003) ==> 50 porting
Jan 2005 -350-(250 before Jan 2004) ==> 100 porting
Jan 2006 -425-(350 before Jan 2005) ==> 75 porting
Jan 2007 -470-(425 before Jan 2006) ==> 50 porting

This trend will continue for next 1 to 1.5 years. EB2 progress depends on spillover.

[vdlrao]

The May 9 Demand data is a clear indication that the dates will move well into 2008. Two reasons: 1.We will get about 30k spill over more(excluding the 12k from EB1 for the first 6 months). 2. The USCIS may think they need a buffer and also they need some applications to preadjucate for the next year spill over.


Expecting a 2 year movement for EB2 I and China by coming Sep .

[voicerj]

The May 9 Demand data is a clear indication that the dates will move well into 2008. Two reasons: 1.We will get about 30k spill over more(excluding the 12k from EB1 for the first 6 months). 2. The USCIS may think they need a buffer and also they need some applications to preadjucate for the next year spill over.


Expecting a 2 year movement for EB2 I and China by coming Sep .

Tere mu mein ghee shakkar (All the sweets for you)

[veni001]

Do you guys notice EB3-ROW reduced by 1500 from May demand data to June Demand Data.
While April to May was only reduced by 175.

EB3-ROW
Apr May June
40,325 40,150 38,650

EB3 ROW gets about 2,400(=28840/12) monthly VISA allocation

[gc_check]

The May 9 Demand data is a clear indication that the dates will move well into 2008. Two reasons: 1.We will get about 30k spill over more(excluding the 12k from EB1 for the first 6 months). 2. The USCIS may think they need a buffer and also they need some applications to preadjucate for the next year spill over.


Expecting a 2 year movement for EB2 I and China by coming Sep .

Looking @ the demand data ->

It does looks like EB2 (I & C) could see a significant movement as the demand shows only 125 for All Other Countries, So all demand is from only I/C EB2.
When the PD inches fwd, they will be more and more people added to the list as well, Remember dates were never current after July '07 for EB2 (I/C) and there could be more people who have since secured their PERM or I-140 with PD> July 2007.
Upgrade percentage might also be higher among people with PD> 07.


Question is, If the demand is reduced significantly once PD passed July 07, how will USCIS/DOS address that. Making it 'C' means another mini July '07 scenario, but those new application will not generate a demand until they are ready for adjudication, which could result in 1-2 months time, Would that mean, a small buffer time for spill over to hit EB3 temporarily or that is almost not possible. Without the Spillover hitting EB3, nothing isn't going to change for E3. Would FY12, give some relief - It all depends on how post '07 E2 data is. I do not think if USCIS or DOS have any clue on this. Or if I-140 approval data is made available, it could help. All perm approvals expire in 6 months and so, everyone must have applied I-140. The demand data does seems to ease the pressure a bit for E2 folks..

Need to wait and see, if June VB has any other surprise. Regardless, USCIS will be getting their recurring contribution from pre-July '07 filers in the name of AP/EAD renewal or new higher filing fees from post July '07 applicants. Regardless, USCIS revenue seems to be good :)

[snathan]

EB3 ROW gets about 2,400(=28840/12) monthly VISA allocation

You mean the EB3ROW early quota is 28840...dont you need to divide it by 5 (28840/5)/12 = about 481 ?

[sanz]

Everybody please dont get overly excited in a Super Viagra state. USCIS and DOS have a habit of doing KLPD.

[rodnyb]

How DOS/CIS creates a EB2 buffer will be interesting, even for June VB.
Based on demand data, there are 29725 for Eb2 (I+C+ROW).
The supply could be 16K (EB1, based on 12K, and a little over,not 20K) + 8K (EB2 ROW) + 8K (EB4/5) + 5.8K (Eb2i/c regular)

Assuming all 5.8K is all used up now. There are still total spill over supply 32K.
Porting won't be calculated here as it should either be shown in demand or won't be approved (due to 4 months processing time)

SO Obviously DOS/CIS can move to late 07/2007. They can build demand, and also all people who missed 07/2007 w/ PD prior 07/2007 can file, adding some demand. Per law, DOS need demand pipleline to avoid make EB2 I/C current (they learned the lesson, hopefully)

As I said before, the real interesting question is how DOS will move the date, assuming they are coordinating with CIS (considering their processing power and almost all EB2 I/C demand now should be all pre-adjudicated.

DOS has to consider all following factors, other than building demand.
1. Denials rate, or RFEs. Will CIS deny or request a lot of RFEs? I would say not much, but could still some
2. EB1 demand. Will moving EB2 I/C use too much demand and leave none for Eb1 in July-Sept?
3. New demand for EB2 I/C and porting. Since CIS will tell DOS it will take 4 month, those new apps wont be approved before Oct 2011 and won't use any visa numbers.
4. CIS processing power and communication PR issue. If moving to fast (say 08/2007 in July 2011 VB). Will too many people call, etc, which could be counter-productive for CIS.

I would say, (and I believe DOS/CIS are all smart people with better data available for them) PD for EB2 I/C in next few months could mostly like (+/-3 months)
June 2011 VB Oct. 2006
July 2011 VB March 2007
August 2011 VB July 2007
Sept 2011 VB late 2007 or early 2008
So
1. They can take in more demand (EB2 who missed 07/2007) without approving them, and build a demand
2. CIS can effectively approve cased
3. EB1 will always have numbers even in Sept
4. Sept 2011 they can use up all visa numbers with no waste
5. No phone calls, congressman hassles, etc since dates are not jumping, and not many people calling about their cases




The May 9 Demand data is a clear indication that the dates will move well into 2008. Two reasons: 1.We will get about 30k spill over more(excluding the 12k from EB1 for the first 6 months). 2. The USCIS may think they need a buffer and also they need some applications to preadjucate for the next year spill over.


Expecting a 2 year movement for EB2 I and China by coming Sep .

[smuggymba]

Please continue to send hard copy letters on EB1 fraud. Don't slack. I just did it again last week. This will help EB2 and EB3 eventually. No more EB1 GCs for infy/wipro and CTS. They have EB2 and EB3 they can apply in.

[skpanda]

Please continue to send hard copy letters on EB1 fraud. Don't slack. I just did it again last week. This will help EB2 and EB3 eventually. No more EB1 GCs for infy/wipro and CTS. They have EB2 and EB3 they can apply in.


Sorry.. I am not familiar with EB1 fraud... What and whome to send? Where can I find information on this? (I did search for EB1 fraud in this forum and could not find anything)

[vdlrao]

Complete stopping of EB1C filings by MNCs for their so called managers(Most of them don't even have the qualifications equaivalent of our EB3 friends have) will make EB2 current soon that in turn helps EB3(Either by porting or by spilling).

[veni001]

Looking @ the demand data ->

It does looks like EB2 (I & C) could see a significant movement as the demand shows only 125 for All Other Countries, So all demand is from only I/C EB2.
When the PD inches fwd, they will be more and more people added to the list as well, Remember dates were never current after July '07 for EB2 (I/C) and there could be more people who have since secured their PERM or I-140 with PD> July 2007.
Upgrade percentage might also be higher among people with PD> 07.


Question is, If the demand is reduced significantly once PD passed July 07, how will USCIS/DOS address that. Making it 'C' means another mini July '07 scenario, but those new application will not generate a demand until they are ready for adjudication, which could result in 1-2 months time, Would that mean, a small buffer time for spill over to hit EB3 temporarily or that is almost not possible. Without the Spillover hitting EB3, nothing isn't going to change for E3. Would FY12, give some relief - It all depends on how post '07 E2 data is. I do not think if USCIS or DOS have any clue on this. Or if I-140 approval data is made available, it could help. All perm approvals expire in 6 months and so, everyone must have applied I-140. The demand data does seems to ease the pressure a bit for E2 folks..

Need to wait and see, if June VB has any other surprise.

Here is the table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007 - Total 14.2k

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total ---3,851 ---8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

Similarly EBC got 3.2k for 2007, so totaling 17.4k( 80% will be EB2 ~=14k) waiting with PD until DEC 2007
This will translates to 25-30k(i485) demand

[vdlrao]

Sorry.. I am not familiar with EB1 fraud... What and whome to send? Where can I find information on this? (I did search for EB1 fraud in this forum and could not find anything)

Filing for GC applications in EB1C category for their so called managers by the MNCs like CTS(Cognizant Technology Services).

[smuggymba]

Please continue to send hard copy letters on EB1 fraud. Don't slack. I just did it again last week. This will help EB2 and EB3 eventually. No more EB1 GCs for infy/wipro and CTS. They have EB2 and EB3 they can apply in.

This is extremely important. See thread by "goodintentions". if you reach out to him, he'll email you the template.

no emails - only hard copies. This is a key for EB3 ppl.

[jaocanada]

Everybody please dont get overly excited in a Super Viagra state. USCIS and DOS have a habit of doing KLPD.

Thanks for using the term KLPD. Heard it after a long time and reminded me of good old days.
BTW, if KLPD happens repeatedly, it is know as KLPLC (LC = Lathi Charge) which happens to us every year that goes by without GC. :-D

[EBX-Man]

Have EB3I numbers reduced to indicate upgrade cases ?

[LONGGCQUE]

Cant stop laughing ... KLPLC .. a new invention

Thanks for using the term KLPD. Heard it after a long time and reminded me of good old days.
BTW, if KLPD happens repeatedly, it is know as KLPLC (LC = Lathi Charge) which happens to us every year that goes by without GC. :-D

[gc_on_demand]

Here is the table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007 - Total 14.2k

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total ---3,851 ---8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

Similarly EBC got 3.2k for 2007, so totaling 17.4k( 80% will be EB2 ~=14k) waiting with PD until DEC 2007
This will translates to 25-30k(i485) demand


DOS should keep in mind that DOL demand will not translate into DOS demand. Since these will not be pre adjudicated cases , there might be some denial , people are out of country , some issue. etc..


so if you have 14k labor then with dependents 30k 485 ( 14k*2.1 ) and from 30k even 90% get approval then it will be 27k.

Even if they get 27k next year it will be too risky. If demand goes lower than supply , and date wont become current then DOS should be ready for lawsuit from EB2.

I think they will advance well into 2008 ( March - June ) so they have enough cases for next year. Since they are going to get cases in advance why to go upto certain numbers ?

[veni001]

DOS should keep in mind that DOL demand will not translate into DOS demand. Since these will not be pre adjudicated cases , there might be some denial , people are out of country , some issue. etc..


so if you have 14k labor then with dependents 30k 485 ( 14k*2.1 ) and from 30k even 90% get approval then it will be 27k.

Even if they get 27k next year it will be too risky. If demand goes lower than supply , and date wont become current then DOS should be ready for lawsuit from EB2.

I think they will advance well into 2008 ( March - June ) so they have enough cases for next year. Since they are going to get cases in advance why to go upto certain numbers ?

Let's see what happens with June VB.

[ascetic]

Complete stopping of EB1C filings by MNCs for their so called managers(Most of them don't even have the qualifications equaivalent of our EB3 friends have) will make EB2 current soon that in turn helps EB3(Either by porting or by spilling).

Well said. EB1C must be restricted to CEOs, CFOs, COOs, and other Cs, if there are anymore Cs.

[smuggymba]

Well said. EB1C must be restricted to CEOs, CFOs, COOs, and other Cs, if there are anymore Cs.

my relative is on L1B here working as a Sr. VP with a 250K salary & 60 ppl reporting to him - his company refused to file in EB1.

But infy files for 70K PM with 5 ppl reporting to him and even gets it done. PHEW!!!!!

[arnab221]

Everybody please dont get overly excited in a Super Viagra state. USCIS and DOS have a habit of doing KLPD.

Totally agree . Cautious optimism is the keyword.

[cbpds]

Somehow DOS manages to whip up a frenzy every month just before rolling out the bulletin..

Wonder how they manage to do it time and again.

Totally agree . Cautious optimism is the keyword.

[gk_2000]

my relative is on L1B here working as a Sr. VP with a 250K salary & 60 ppl reporting to him - his company refused to file in EB1.

But infy files for 70K PM with 5 ppl reporting to him and even gets it done. PHEW!!!!!

Shouldn't he be on L1A for that?

[smuggymba]

Somehow DOS manages to whip up a frenzy every month just before rolling out the bulletin..

Wonder how they manage to do it time and again.

I'm more excited abt July bulletin...when the real deal shows up. If it goes into 2008 and doesn't retrogress....it would be great. My PD is 2010. If this EB1 fraud stops, who knows where we will be in 2 years for EB2/3.

[ca_immigrant]

Well said. EB1C must be restricted to CEOs, CFOs, COOs, and other Cs, if there are anymore Cs.

hmmm....Cs....Contractors ??? just kidding...but I agree it should be highly restricted...
it is such a fraud....
just because someone is a PM....and has a few people that they interact (which they show as reporting) with they get greened...

I also know of a first hand case where in my previous company....they got someone greened on an L1 somehow...I do not know how...but he got his GC in 2 years or so ....
Guess they did his L1A....he did not have anyone reporting to him in India nor here...

this was back in 2003.....and me I am still waiting...due to fraud cases like that :mad:

[forever_waiting]

I think its we who are responsible for whipping up the frenzy :). DoS doesn't care.

As the experts pointed out, the June VB will at least indicate if the calculations are in the right direction.

Somehow DOS manages to whip up a frenzy every month just before rolling out the bulletin..

Wonder how they manage to do it time and again.

[gcseeker101]

Reason is, they release data before VB. The data will appear very optimistic. We will start expecting good things. But for USCIS, it is just another VB. They prefer to be over cautious and waste visas instead of doing a good calculate and make correct date movements.

End of the day,
* We get disappointed.
* We will go into silent mode until next VB
Then history repeats.

Everything is a hype. They say 12k visas are available from EB1 as per their latest data. They say porting is very high. They move dates by a month. Nothing matches to their released numbers or date movements.



Somehow DOS manages to whip up a frenzy every month just before rolling out the bulletin..

Wonder how they manage to do it time and again.

[gc_peshwa]

End of the day,
* We get disappointed.
* We will go into silent mode until next VB
Then history repeats.


Good point. WE. Its WE who make our own destiny and WE can change it. A good first step is to get involved with IV initiatives.
Sorry for this hopeless pitch but it disappoints me to see highly intelligent and talented folks like yourself (all EB guys) become so negative and helpless.

[PrinceVA]

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: June 2011 (Coming Soon)

Still waiting.
Mr. Rao,
I feel that you are very optimistic about this VB. Majority of your posts do hint for 2 yrs and PD go well in 2008.
I hope you are correct, and I wish you are correct.
Let us c.

[skantamneni]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[Honda]

Thank you.

[jaocanada]

It was thought that it'd be published on 10 May. Nothing yet.. anyone have any idea when they'd publish the June '11 visa bulletin?

[voicerj]

It was thought that it'd be published on 10 May. Nothing yet.. anyone have any idea when they'd publish the June '11 visa bulletin?

Come Friday and high chances of you getting current.

[sanz]

Hope they have good news on Friday 13th......

Jason's coming..........

[vdlrao]

Where is the bulletin.:rolleyes:

[smuggymba]

Where is the bulletin.:rolleyes:

2 more days

[krish2006]

Teddy,

why did DOS added the following info in the May VB " numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal"

Did you happen to parse these words on actually what they are implying. Do they think moving 7 weeks is more rapid than normal esp when using spillover.:confused:

"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal"

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

why did DOS added the following info in the May VB " numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal"

Did you happen to parse these words on actually what they are implying. Do they think moving 7 weeks is more rapid than normal esp when using spillover.:confused:

"As mentioned earlier, the number of applicants who may be “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is unknown. As a result, the cut-off date which governs use of Section 202(a)(5) numbers has been advanced more rapidly than normal"

I think we may make a couple of inferences here. a) They moved the dates forward by 7 weeks even before the traditional spillover season this indicates that the spillover will be larger than ever before b) They want to determine the true extent of porting the best way would be to move the dates more forward to test the waters. People whose dates are later are more likely to be inclined to port as waiting in EB3 is simply hopeless. I believe now if someone is from India the EB2-EB3 ratio is probably 80-20.

[veni001]

I think we may make a couple of inferences here. a) They moved the dates forward by 7 weeks even before the traditional spillover season this indicates that the spillover will be larger than ever before b) They want to determine the true extent of porting the best way would be to move the dates more forward to test the waters. People whose dates are later are more likely to be inclined to port as waiting in EB3 is simply hopeless. I believe now if someone is from India the EB2-EB3 ratio is probably 80-20.

Teddy,
One thing we need to keep in mind is there are only 10k EB3I between May 2006 and July 2007 based on 01-05-2011 inventory update!

[krish2006]

b) They want to determine the true extent of porting the best way would be to move the dates more forward to test the waters. People whose dates are later are more likely to be inclined to port as waiting in EB3 is simply hopeless. I believe now if someone is from India the EB2-EB3 ratio is probably 80-20.

If you look in the Jan 11 inventory , Total EB3 I numbers in May and June 2006 are about 1600 or so.

Do they expect to test waters with Just 1600 out of 12K numbers available to see how much porting is there?

What's ur take?

[TeddyKoochu]

If you look in the Jan 11 inventory , Total EB3 I numbers in May and June 2006 are about 1600 or so.

Do they expect to test waters with Just 1600 out of 12K numbers available to see how much porting is there?

What's ur take?

I agree with you there is inherent contradiction in what they are saying. Only 2900 numbers were allocated by the demand data difference method, if they really want to test the waters the date should have moved much further. I would say that with the remaining 9K numbers they can safely move the dates forward by 4 months.

Teddy,
One thing we need to keep in mind is there are only 10k EB3I between May 2006 and July 2007 based on 01-05-2011 inventory update!

This justifies the ratio I bet after 2007 its 80-20 (EB2-EB3).

[krish2006]

I agree with you there is inherent contradiction in what they are saying. Only 2900 numbers were allocated by the demand data difference method, if they really want to test the waters the date should have moved much further. I would say that with the remaining 9K numbers they can safely move the dates forward by 4 months.



This justifies the ratio I bet after 2007 its 80-20 (EB2-EB3).

I am not sure if IV can ask for clarification reg. this. How can they possibly test the porting demand by just moving 7 weeks. (and to make matters worse in May VB DOS says it cannot predict anything for August & September bulletins )

Quite surprised by this

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends to be consistent I have deleted the entire discussion which had personal remarks. We should have zero tolerance towards any personal remarks here lets debate the process and the situation its good to go after the issues that have become part of our lives not each other. Lets welcome all new people joining in.

[skpanda]

Over the last 2 or 3 days, I have observed that IV pages auto refresh every 5 seconds or so. This happens 90% of the times. Sometimes its frustrating because, even before you could go to the bottom of the page or try to post a reply, the page refreshes.

This is happening on my laptop as well as iphone.

anybody else has this problem? can something be done about this?

Thanks!

Admins.. if this is not the right place, please move this post to the appropriate place. Thanks!

[skpanda]

It was thought that it'd be published on 10 May. Nothing yet.. anyone have any idea when they'd publish the June '11 visa bulletin?

Usually Visa bulletin is released a day after the Demand data. I think DOS will release the Bulletin today before 8 PM. May 2011 bulletin was posted around 7 PM (8th April - Friday).

All the best to everybody who will be greened this year!

[veni001]

Usually Visa bulletin is released a day after the Demand data. I think DOS will release the Bulletin today before 8 PM. May 2011 bulletin was posted around 7 PM (8th April - Friday).

All the best to everybody who will be greened this year!

I think it did b'se of Friday!, we have two more days to go!

[veni001]

Looks like everyone is so optimistic. Based on past experience I have learned one thing... just don't be way hopeful for visa bulletin. Usually they are unpredictable and it turned out to be disappointing for people who wait for dates eagerly.... just take it easy

Agree,
Based on history all hyped Bulletins disappointed at the end.

[gc4ani]

hi folks can somebody please help me understand how the spillover works..
my question is when eb-3 row becomes current who gets the available numbers
is 1. retrogessed countries in eb-3
or 2. eb-2 category.

really appreciate a reply.

[ryan]

I am not sure if IV can ask for clarification reg. this. How can they possibly test the porting demand by just moving 7 weeks. (and to make matters worse in May VB DOS says it cannot predict anything for August & September bulletins )

Quite surprised by this

The folks at USCIS may have received certain number of upgrades / porting applications that was at review stage at the time of issuing the May visa bulletin. So perhaps, just looking at actual approved numbers, may not be indicative of the "potential approvals" -- that was / is, being reviewed, approved, rejected etc.

It’s the processes at the USCIS that make the system, and the system throws out the numbers, supported by the commentary we get to read. The commentary gives SOME insight to the processes at the USCIS – not the whole story behind the scenes. Anyway, it is what it is.

That said, may I say something -- I don't get the "prediction" craze. Despite the incredible effort and analysis, predictions cannot add anything tangible to erase this horrendous backlog. I took a look at the EB 3 pending I-485 Inventory for India (it's very disheartening, to say the least) I cannot imagine what some of souls in that bucket may have to endure unless, we collectively do something to bring about effective change. Compared to the monstrous illegal immigrant numbers – the legal (and may I add, the educated, the working tax payers, the economy propellers) aren’t large numbers at all. It’s miniscule, yet, the positives to the country is huge.

[MacX]

Over the last 2 or 3 days, I have observed that IV pages auto refresh every 5 seconds or so. This happens 90% of the times. Sometimes its frustrating because, even before you could go to the bottom of the page or try to post a reply, the page refreshes.

This is happening on my laptop as well as iphone.

anybody else has this problem? can something be done about this?

Thanks!

Admins.. if this is not the right place, please move this post to the appropriate place. Thanks!
yes, it happened it me few times. I thought there is some problem with my browser. Oncei think browser loaded complete page i used to hit on stop and then it works.

-Mac

[veni001]

hi folks can somebody please help me understand how the spillover works..
my question is when eb-3 row becomes current who gets the available numbers
is 1. retrogessed countries in eb-3
or 2. eb-2 category.

really appreciate a reply.

And the answer is 1. Retrogressed Countries within eb-3

But the big question is when is EB3 ROW going to be "C":confused:

[veni001]

The folks at USCIS may have received certain number of upgrades / porting applications that was at review stage at the time of issuing the May visa bulletin. So perhaps, just looking at actual approved numbers, may not be indicative of the "potential approvals" -- that was / is, being reviewed, approved, rejected etc.

It’s the processes at the USCIS that make the system, and the system throws out the numbers, supported by the commentary we get to read. The commentary gives SOME insight to the processes at the USCIS – not the whole story behind the scenes. Anyway, it is what it is.

That said, may I say something -- I don't get the "prediction" craze. Despite the incredible effort and analysis, predictions cannot add anything tangible to erase this horrendous backlog. I took a look at the EB 3 pending I-485 Inventory for India (it's very disheartening, to say the least) I cannot imagine what some of souls in that bucket may have to endure unless, we collectively do something to bring about effective change. Compared to the monstrous illegal immigrant numbers – the legal (and may I add, the educated, the working tax payers, the economy propellers) aren’t large numbers at all. It’s miniscule, yet, the positives to the country is huge.

Ryan,
Don't you think such numbers should be part of demand data released for June 2011 VB?

[EBX-Man]

hi folks can somebody please help me understand how the spillover works..
my question is when eb-3 row becomes current who gets the available numbers
is 1. retrogessed countries in eb-3
or 2. eb-2 category.

really appreciate a reply.

Once EB3 ROW is current spillover will go to EB3 I
But ............
EB3 ROW will get spillover only when EB2 (I/C/ROW) are current
So the question you should be asking is when will EB2 become current

[rodnyb]

interesting.

2008 2009 2010
EB2I moved more than 1 year
from may to sept

hopefully it will happen again

USCIS getting "inspired" by IV's WIKI :D:D:D

USCIS's Document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf)
IV's WIKI http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data)

[pappu]

USCIS getting "inspired" by IV's WIKI :D:D:D

USCIS's Document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf)
IV's WIKI http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data)

Maybe.
They do visit IV site and we have shared our data analysis documents.

Teddy, Coopheal and others,
As soon as the new USCIS inventory data is released there is a project to be worked on. We will be doing some analysis and prediction and submit to USCIS and also make it public. This would carry IV recommendations on what additional data we need for future releases and how the process can be made better. Do keep in touch with VBkris as he is briefed on the requirements of this new project.

[vdlrao]

interesting.

2008 2009 2010
EB2I moved more than 1 year
from may to sept

hopefully it will happen again

Yes it will rodnyb, but this time its two years. As we never get 25k only from EB1 in the last 3 years. In 2010 we got no spill over from EB1. This time the spill over estimation is 25k from EB1.

[ahaly]

Any idea when its coming out ?!

[vdlrao]

Maybe.
They do visit IV site and we have shared our data analysis documents.

Teddy, Coopheal and others,
As soon as the new USCIS inventory data is released there is a project to be worked on. We will be doing some analysis and prediction and submit to USCIS and also make it public. This would carry IV recommendations on what additional data we need for future releases and how the process can be made better. Do keep in touch with VBkris as he is briefed on the requirements of this new project.


Pappu, Even though we do this prediction game, I am pretty much aware that we got some clarity just because USCIS monthly Demand Data, which has happened just because of IV efforts.


.

[rahul2699]

Yes it will rodnyb, but this time its two years. As we never get 25k only from EB1 in the last 3 years. In 2010 we got no spill over from EB1. This time the spill over estimation is 25k from EB1.

i hope so but the only unknown is the number of people proting from E3 to E2. It certainly is higher than previous years but i hope it doesnt off-set the spill-over.

[gk_2000]

USCIS getting "inspired" by IV's WIKI :D:D:D

USCIS's Document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf)
IV's WIKI http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data)

Question: What is the difference between "4th" preference and "4th (Certain religious workers)"? Anyone?

[gk_2000]

Question: What is the difference between "4th" preference and "4th (Certain religious workers)"? Anyone?

Ok, never mind... khoda pahad, nilka chuha

[veni001]

Yes it will rodnyb, but this time its two years. As we never get 25k only from EB1 in the last 3 years. In 2010 we got no spill over from EB1. This time the spill over estimation is 25k from EB1.

vdl,
One other thing to consider is, EB2I demand in CY 2004 and CY 2005 is only half when compared to CY2006 or CY 2007.

[vdlrao]

vdl,
One other thing to consider is, EB2I demand in CY 2004 and CY 2005 is only half when compared to CY2006 or CY 2007.

Only in 2005 its half when compared to 2006 or 2007. During 2005 clearing time North Korea alone has got about 8k EB2 visas if I remember correctly. And IV, VBkris, has taken this into USCIS note about this at that time.



.

[EBX-Man]

I think when CIS said high upgrade demand numbers in last VB we all assumed it is EB3I which is porting because they are the ones most badly retrogressed, but on retrospection it is more clear that CIS said EB3 upgrades that that would mean upgrades from EB3 category as a whole and based on the demand data numbers it looks like the maximum % or upgrades/porters are from EB ROW and not from EB3 I as was assumed.
Lets hope the actual count of upgrades/porter is revealed by CIS, so that this predictions starts to pan out as predicted

[rodnyb]

vdlrao,

25K is too optimistic :)

I would say 16K from EB1, 8K from Eb2 ROW, 8K from EB4/5, and assuming all regular 5.8 have been used up by EB2I/C (some are porting).

We have about 32K for EB2 I/C for next few months

Since processing time is 4 months, all new porting (no matter how "huge"), PWMB, new Eb1/EB2ROW won't use any visa numbers. And assuming 3K old porting which have been processed.

With 29K demand for EB2 I/C, and considering some denial/RFE/abandon, DOS/CIS should push to late 2007, which will help them build some demand as well (w/o approval of those new apps)


vdl,
One other thing to consider is, EB2I demand in CY 2004 and CY 2005 is only half when compared to CY2006 or CY 2007.

[vdlrao]

vdlrao,

25K is too optimistic :)

I would say 16K from EB1, 8K from Eb2 ROW, 8K from EB4/5, and assuming all regular 5.8 have been used up by EB2I/C (some are porting).

We have about 32K for EB2 I/C for next few months

Since processing time is 4 months, all new porting (no matter how "huge"), PWMB, new Eb1/EB2ROW won't use any visa numbers. And assuming 3K old porting which have been processed.

With 29K demand for EB2 I/C, and considering some denial/RFE/abandon, DOS/CIS should push to late 2007, which will help them build some demand as well (w/o approval of those new apps)

Well rodnyb!!! USCIS itself has said that there are 12k left over EB1 visas for the first 6 months when compared to the last year for the same time. So if expecting 12k for the next half would be optimistic , then expecting 1/3 of 12k ,which is 4000, for the next half would be a pessimistic. :p. So 25k spill over from EB1 is definitely a possible scenario.


.

[gcseeker101]

I see posts that Perm takes 10 days & I140 Premium takes a month. So still porters and new current-category apps can be filed right? Why do people say 4 months? Am I missing something? Of-course most people want to do I-140 premium as they are not sure of USCIS date movements.


vdlrao,

25K is too optimistic :)

I would say 16K from EB1, 8K from Eb2 ROW, 8K from EB4/5, and assuming all regular 5.8 have been used up by EB2I/C (some are porting).

We have about 32K for EB2 I/C for next few months

Since processing time is 4 months, all new porting (no matter how "huge"), PWMB, new Eb1/EB2ROW won't use any visa numbers. And assuming 3K old porting which have been processed.

With 29K demand for EB2 I/C, and considering some denial/RFE/abandon, DOS/CIS should push to late 2007, which will help them build some demand as well (w/o approval of those new apps)

[veni001]

I see posts that Perm takes 10 days & I140 Premium takes a month. So still porters and new current-category apps can be filed right? Why do people say 4 months? Am I missing something? Of-course most people want to do I-140 premium as they are not sure of USCIS date movements.

It is for i-485 processing( FBI name check ...etc). USCIS can not approve all applications instantly and no premium processing for i-485!

[gc_on_demand]

Well rodnyb!!! USCIS itself has said that there are 12k left over EB1 visas for the first 6 months when compared to the last year for the same time. So if expecting 12k for the next half would be optimistic , then expecting 1/3 of 12k ,which is 4000, for the next half would be a pessimistic. :p. So 25k spill over from EB1 is definitely a possible scenario.


.

It was AILA who posted that demand is low etc..... There was no firm information from DOS regarding 12k demand etc.... Also they have been saying over and over that porting is high. I think on safe side USCIS may have inconsistence pattern that they might be showing porting demand high some time OR since spill over visas come only in JUly ( I am sure DOS only knows about available spill over in July ) and India used all regular quota for Porting then if you look from % point once can say that porting is high and its almost using 90 - 100 % of quota for given country.

So only July- Sep bulletins might give pic. Until July DOS gives out visas to all unless they meet their quota, even DOS may not be keeping track of how many available etc.. That is why they are not posting data or any comment before June bulletin.

[veni001]

vdlrao,

25K is too optimistic :)

I would say 16K from EB1, 8K from Eb2 ROW, 8K from EB4/5, and assuming all regular 5.8 have been used up by EB2I/C (some are porting).

We have about 32K for EB2 I/C for next few months

Since processing time is 4 months, all new porting (no matter how "huge"), PWMB, new Eb1/EB2ROW won't use any visa numbers. And assuming 3K old porting which have been processed.

With 29K demand for EB2 I/C, and considering some denial/RFE/abandon, DOS/CIS should push to late 2007, which will help them build some demand as well (w/o approval of those new apps)

2011(Q1+Q2) PERM disclosure data points that ROW demand is about the same as FY2010, but since EB1 is getting tougher and EB3ROW is retrogressed, there will be more EB2-ROW applicants this year compared to previous years, so i doubt any spillover from EB2ROW this year!

[gc_on_demand]

Only in 2005 its half when compared to 2006 or 2007. During 2005 clearing time North Korea alone has got about 8k EB2 visas if I remember correctly. And IV, VBkris, has taken this into USCIS note about this at that time.



.

I don't think that DOS thinks that spill over combine will be more than 32k available demand. If demand were more than 35k then they would have move date so USCIS can accept new files after July 07 and approve them in Sep 2011. ( given that UCSIS needs 4 months ) since I follow DOS on family based category they generally advance dates for 1-2 years even though they don't have visas for that year and retrogress back for 1-2 years. This is how DOS building inventory and utilizing visas for family class.

So I am agree with you that even visas will be enough to reach Feb 2007, DOS will ( I mean ) should advance date to Mid 2008 so USCIS can be ready for next year's season.

[gc_peshwa]

It was AILA who posted that demand is low etc..... There was no firm information from DOS regarding 12k demand etc....

AILA has *officially* gone on record in their member-only news update with a quote from Charlie O. Granted AILA was whipping up visa frenzy amongst the EB immigrant community. But they would'nt attribute the comments to Charlie O in their public release.
Also DOS is not obliged to clarify what some organization quoted one of their officials on.

India used all regular quota for Porting then if you look from % point once can say that porting is high and its almost using 90 - 100 % of quota for given country.

Good analysis! But for DOS to say 'porting' is 'high', they must quantify it at SOME level. Why is that quantity (of so-called 'upgraders') not public?
On another note since DOS has specifically mentioned 'gauging the pipeline' terminology in May 2011 VB they certainly will act on building the pipeline once current crop of preadjudicated apps is exhausted.
When will they run out of the preadjudicated apps is anyone's guess. But within next 6 months or so they have to advance the dates well into 2008 or even 2009.

[bujji_rjy]

yes, it happened it me few times. I thought there is some problem with my browser. Oncei think browser loaded complete page i used to hit on stop and then it works.

-Mac

Remove eVerything after html in webadress. Page will be stable then. I do it all the times in my small screen.

[vdlrao]

2011(Q1+Q2) PERM disclosure data points that ROW demand is about the same as FY2010, but since EB1 is getting tougher and EB3ROW is retrogressed, there will be more EB2-ROW applicants this year compared to previous years, so i doubt any spillover from EB2ROW this year!

When EB1 is tougher that means EB1C is tougher for the so called managers. So these EB1C managers are mostly from Indian MNCs like Cognizant(CTS), Infosys, Wipro and TCS. So the demand is from India not from ROW. So there won't be any impact on EB2 ROW.


.

[Honda]

Well rodnyb!!! USCIS itself has said that there are 12k left over EB1 visas for the first 6 months when compared to the last year for the same time. So if expecting 12k for the next half would be optimistic , then expecting 1/3 of 12k ,which is 4000, for the next half would be a pessimistic. :p. So 25k spill over from EB1 is definitely a possible scenario.


.


VDL Rao Predictions are always accurate. Thank you VDL Rao.

[rodnyb]

1. 12k number is some official from DOS told AILA.. and 12K is not specified half year, or whole year.. even worse, could those be all (including Eb2)?
2. Look at prior years (back to 2002 based on DOS annual visa statistics), Eb1 has rarely dropped below 20K (total 40K), so 20K is even a stretch
3. 4 months is 485 proceeding time, including receiving files, organizing, checking (FBI, medical, etc). Agreed, it could be 2 months or even 2 days, but I doubt. Majority of cases take months, especially when CIS has to approve huge number of pre-adjudicated EB2s. Last month, they approved 3K, that means almost 150 a day, next 4 month, even at 5K per month, still very high number..


Well rodnyb!!! USCIS itself has said that there are 12k left over EB1 visas for the first 6 months when compared to the last year for the same time. So if expecting 12k for the next half would be optimistic , then expecting 1/3 of 12k ,which is 4000, for the next half would be a pessimistic. :p. So 25k spill over from EB1 is definitely a possible scenario.


.

[rodnyb]

Agree. We can also expect EB2 I will increase for those PDs, mostly 2010 and after.
just curious, found this for CTS and infosys, those surely mostly not manager salary, how can they got EB1 before (really ridiculous)
Cognizant Technology Solutions Us Salaries | SalaryList.com (http://www.salarylist.com/company/Cognizant-Technology-Solutions-Us-Salary.htm)
Infosys Salaries | SalaryList.com (http://www.salarylist.com/company/Infosys-Salary.htm)

When EB1 is tougher that means EB1C is tougher for the so called managers. So these EB1C managers are mostly from Indian MNCs like Cognizant(CTS), Infosys, Wipro and TCS. So the demand is from India not from ROW. So there won't be any impact on EB2 ROW.


.

[vadicherla]

Good News to all


India EB2 Oct 15 2006
Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

[gcmadhu]

EB2 I - 15th Oct 2006
EB3 I - 22 Apr 2002

[LONGGCQUE]

3 1/2 months Eb2 I move appears more than expectations

[Rohan99]

Today I received e-mail from USCIS stating --> "Service records indicate that your case was approved and your I-551 card was mailed on May 9, 2011 to the address we had on file at that time. Please check with your local Post Office for undeliverable mail. Your document has not been returned to us. "

Looks like I am greened. But when I check my status on uscis.gov it shows "initial review" same from last 4 years, there is no LUD change also. I didn't receive any welcome e-mail or card production ordered. Is anyone in same scenario? Is this normal process?

[veni001]

When EB1 is tougher that means EB1C is tougher for the so called managers. So these EB1C managers are mostly from Indian MNCs like Cognizant(CTS), Infosys, Wipro and TCS. So the demand is from India not from ROW. So there won't be any impact on EB2 ROW.
.

vdl,
See below for EB1 numbers from India & China for the last 6 yrs , It is averaging about 5.0k per country per year!

EB1 INDIA i-485 approvals
2005 -6,336
2006 - 3,156
2007 - 2,855
2008 - 5,326
2009 - 6,672
2010 - 6,741
Total = 31,086

EB1 CHINA i-485 approvals
2005 -6,422
2006 - 3,278
2007 - 2,982
2008 - 5,602
2009 - 4,999
2010 - 6,741
Total = 30,024

I don't these numbers are significant when EB2 South Korea getting more then this per year!:confused:

[rodnyb]

Good news, Oct. 2006.. Seems DOS has some sense in using spillover now this month. It seems law only allow them use them in last quarter.

DOS dilemma in the coming month

1. DOS has to rely on demand data to set PD for VB.
2. DOS wishes to have some inventory, as EB2I consume about 15K-30K per year
3. According to law, they can not move it fast after Sept 2011, as there will be visible demand > 2800 EB2I supply.
4. They will have to stay pretty much around the last PD in 2011 (Sept 2011 PD).
5. As inventory is getting low, DOS cannot still move PD too much according to law (point 3 above)
6. There could be a mess later 2012 as they have to consume all 20K EB2I from fall-down, etc. They don't want to make it Current, but move it just few months will waste visa numbers.

Something DOS might be considering
1. Since CIS needs 4 months to process, they can move PD to late 2007 or even 2008, to build inventory in July-Spet 2011 VB (ideally Sept 2011)
2. They then know demand till late 2007 or 2008
3. CIS will have plenty (but not millions, if PD made C) EB2I 485 to process
4. DOS can retrogress in Oct. 2011

Issues DOS/CIS has to work together
1. How to guarantee approval with FIFO, or just random for pre-adjudicated cases
2. Depending on visa usage from EB1/EB2 ROW, there could be people who have PD before the Sept 2011 VB PD, that won't get GC in Sept. Those people are pre-adjudicated as well.
3. Visa could be all used up in early Spet by all those pre-adjudicated, if they move PD after 07/2007

Safe route for DOS, and they might consider (they have smart people there, I am sure)
1. 07/2011 VB PD, move to 01/2007, so they can start use or EB1/Eb2ROW spillover to EB2I
2. 08/2011 VB PD (depending on 1), move to 01/2007 to 02/2007, to make sure visa asumption. Hopefully they can still have some supply to use
3. 09/2011 Since demand will be low (maybe a few K), and supply still have some, they can move PS further to 04/2008 (just random) to build demand without approving those application.

[srinivasj]

it would be very interesting to read what they will say in the bulletin about future movements..

[schrodinger]

Should we wait for official release on uscis.gov website or is the mumbai consulate update reliable?

Also usually when does the official bulletin get released after the update on the mumbai consulate website?

[srinivasj]

Should we wait for official release on uscis.gov website or is the mumbai consulate update reliable?

Also usually when does the official bulletin get released after the update on the mumbai consulate website?
they fat fingered "Current" couple of times that caused lot of excitement and anguish...we can just hope that these dates are reliable..
mumbai bulletin is always updated in the night a day before official bulletin in out..

[snathan]

Pappu, Even though we do this prediction game, I am pretty much aware that we got some clarity just because USCIS monthly Demand Data, which has happened just because of IV efforts.


.

Do you still see two years movement this year....

[schrodinger]

Missed by 3 days....EB2-Oct 17th

[rodnyb]

Curious, why not inventory report update?

USCIS Home Page (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/)

Do you still see two years movement this year....

[veni001]

Missed by 3 days....EB2-Oct 17th

You will be current in July 2011, i understand next 4 weeks will be tough!
Good luck!

[veni001]

Curious, why not inventory report update?

USCIS Home Page (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/)

Looks like they will wait until next quarter to show some progress (backlog reduction)

[Irs]

If the visa number data available from Mumbai consulate is true, then per my analysis, about 5,914 visa numbers might have been allocated to India.

What interests me is that what would be cut off dates for China..And my assumption is that for China, the cut off dates would be around Nov 15.Then about 2,441 visas might have been allocated to China...

A total of about about 8,355 visa would have been allocated this time..That being said, it equals around 12K, if numbers for May visa bulletin movement data is included. Hence there must be a large spillover in the last quarter?

For all the experts here at IV, I would like to ask them the following question?

Does USCIS have the capacity to handle and issue 20K GC within a short time period of 4 months? I am not sure how much time does it take for FP, Medical etc. Any insight would be really appreciated.

Pappu / Others, Does the previous cut off dates used to determine visa bulletin in a spread sheet format? If so, let me know.

Data used

INDIA 2006 2007
Jan 0000 1394
Feb 0000 1308
Mar 0000 1326
Apr 0000 1289
May 0000 1010
Jun 0000 1163
Jul 1523 2200
Aug 1699 103
Sep 1804 1
Oct 1777 4
Nov 1723 0
Dec 1900 0

10425 9799 (based on data available from http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf)

China 2006 2007
Jan 0000 800
Feb 0000 751
Mar 0000 760
Apr 0000 740
May 0000 579
Jun 0000 667
Jul 0000 1262
Aug 672 59
Sep 714 1
Oct 703 2
Nov 682 0
Dec 752 0
3524 5620 (based on data available from http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf)

[Goodintentions]

This is extremely important. See thread by "goodintentions". if you reach out to him, he'll email you the template.

no emails - only hard copies. This is a key for EB3 ppl.

========================

Please mail me at Saptaswara99@hotmail.com and I can help you with my draft...

To strive, to seek, to find and NOT to yield..............

Best wishes!

[veni001]

If the visa number data available from Mumbai consulate is true, then per my calculation, about 5,914 visa numbers were allocated to India. What interests me is that what would be cut off dates for China..

My assumption is that for China, the cut off dates would be around Nov 15.Then about 2,441 visas were made available for them...

A total of about about 8,355 visa would have been allocated this time..That being said, it equals around 12K, if numbers for May visa bulletin movement. Hence there must be a large spillover in the last quarter?

For all the experts here at IV, I would like to ask them the following question?

Does USCIS have the capacity to handle and issue 20K GC within a short time period of 4 months? I am not sure how much time does it take for FP, Medical etc. Any insight would be really appreciated.

Pappu / Others, Would you be able to send the previous cut off dates used to determine visa bulletin in a spread sheet format?

Data used

INDIA 2006 2007 China 2006 2007
Jan 1394 Jan 800
Feb 1308 Feb 751
Mar 1326 Mar 760
Apr 1289 Apr 740
May 1010 May 579
Jun 1163 Jun 667
Jul 1523 2200 Jul 1262
Aug 1699 103 Aug 672 59
Sep 1804 1 Sep 714 1
Oct 1777 4 Oct 703 2
Nov 1723 0 Nov 682 0
Dec 1900 0 Dec 752 0

10425 9799 3524 5620

Yes they can, since they have those many in the pre-adjudicated Que till 01AUG2007.
See 01-05-2011 EB-i485 inventory update from USCIS.

[Irs]

Yes they can, since they have those many in the pre-adjudicated Que till 01AUG2007.
See 01-05-2011 EB-i485 inventory update from USCIS.

I have that data but would like to see the most recent data used to determine monthly visa bulletin.

[veni001]

I have that data but would like to see the most recent data used to determine monthly visa bulletin.

Compare DOS demand data with USCIS monthly inventory data, you have the answer!

[Honda]

Should we wait for official release on uscis.gov website or is the mumbai consulate update reliable?

Also usually when does the official bulletin get released after the update on the mumbai consulate website?

Yes. It's reliable.

[gladiator]

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

EB2 India - 15 October 2006

[gcseeker101]

Very nice! Looks like we have good days ahead!

[vdlrao]

This May bulletin clarifies us 2 things.

1. The porting is not a block out now . As if there is much porting, the dates would not move forward. So porting is clear and as Teddy and others expected it might be around 6k to 8k.

2. The dates will move with out doubt well into 2008 as all the spill over in the last quarter will be used for EB2 India and China only. The two year movement(Already 6 months moved in 2011) for the whole year of 2011 is a cake walk now.



.

[Honda]

This May bulletin clarifies us 2 things.

1. The porting is not a block out now . As if there is much porting, the dates would not move forward. So porting is clear and as Teddy and others expected it might be around 6k to 8k.

2. The dates will move with out doubt well into 2008 as all the spill over in the last quarter will be used for EB2 India and China only. The two year movement(Already 6 months moved in 2011) for the whole year of 2011 is a cake walk now.



.


You are the Rock star VDLRao.

[mechanical13]

they fat fingered "Current" couple of times that caused lot of excitement and anguish...we can just hope that these dates are reliable..
mumbai bulletin is always updated in the night a day before official bulletin in out..

I read some place that for CP, consulates are typically more forward looking. i.e. while the mumbai consulate website specifies a October 2006 date for EB2, this might necessarily be for June 2011 - it might be the cuttoff date for July 2011, or perhaps even August.

Am I mistaken ?

[gc4ani]

thank you very much ebx-man

[dontcareaboutGC]

This May bulletin clarifies us 2 things.

1. The porting is not a block out now . As if there is much porting, the dates would not move forward. So porting is clear and as Teddy and others expected it might be around 6k to 8k.

2. The dates will move with out doubt well into 2008 as all the spill over in the last quarter will be used for EB2 India and China only. The two year movement(Already 6 months moved in 2011) for the whole year of 2011 is a cake walk now.



.
Dont we think that we are just evaluating based on 1 month data in regards to gauging the porting- Would it be better to span this out over a couple to months to see if porting numbers are high?

[gcwait2007]

Immigrant Visas

Cut-Off Dates for Immigrant Visas
We are pleased to announce the June 2011 cut-off dates for immigrant visas for individuals born in India and those born in most other countries.

To qualify for an appointment, an applicant's priority date (the date that the petition was filed) must fall before the cut-off date for the appropriate category.

The following numbers are derived from the Department of State's Visa Bulletin. If you have additional questions about cut-off dates and your case is being processed at the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai, please e-mail us.



Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current


Visa Bulletin for June 2011 published @ Mumbai Embassy

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

[TeddyKoochu]

Immigrant Visas

Cut-Off Dates for Immigrant Visas
We are pleased to announce the June 2011 cut-off dates for immigrant visas for individuals born in India and those born in most other countries.

To qualify for an appointment, an applicant's priority date (the date that the petition was filed) must fall before the cut-off date for the appropriate category.

The following numbers are derived from the Department of State's Visa Bulletin. If you have additional questions about cut-off dates and your case is being processed at the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai, please e-mail us.



Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current


Visa Bulletin for June 2011 published @ Mumbai Embassy

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

Great news this is a movement of about 6K numbers for EB2 India and it definitely sets the pace for July.

[silveroaks]

Great news this is a movement of about 6K numbers for EB2 India and it definitely sets the pace for July.

So heres the question then....
Was NVC correct in its estimates, when it gave some fee notices to people with PD of end of 2007.?

Thanks,

[mechanical13]

Great news this is a movement of about 6K numbers for EB2 India and it definitely sets the pace for July.

I'm really confused. Doesn't movement of June 2011 dates to October 2006 kind of go against all the predictions we have seen in recent times regarding visa number movement?

Why is DoS disregarding all non-last quarter limits?

I'm inclined to feel that DoS was unable to gage upgrade demand by advancing dates last month, so they're advancing more this month to try to assess upgrade demand.

Teddy - does this make sense?

[skpanda]

========================

Please mail me at Saptaswara99@hotmail.com and I can help you with my draft...

To strive, to seek, to find and NOT to yield..............

Best wishes!

Thanks Goodintentions... I sent a PM to you already... will send an email too.. !!

[Karthikthiru]

My Priority date is Oct 19, 2006. 5 days more. I think in July, 2011 it will be current

[voicerj]

My Priority date is Oct 19, 2006. 5 days more. I think in July, 2011 it will be current

For Sure buddy, Just hope that it moves more and more to get more people benefit out of it.

[redsox2009]

June visa bulletin by the Mumbai Consulate tells us that India and China will get minimum 28000 visas via spillover.

Only 30% of the available spill over visas will be given during 3 quarter. when added C&I visa applications I got around 8000, so we have around 28000 ready to be issued in Q4.

Good luck to all.

[Karthikthiru]

Yes. I will nice if there are no backlogs and everyone is current

[voicerj]

Great news this is a movement of about 6K numbers for EB2 India and it definitely sets the pace for July.

@Teddy - What do you say now, how much probability have increased for you and me.

[gc_on_demand]

This is what I think..


Chances of date crossing 2008 is high by Sep 2011 but Actual card production may happen for people till may 2007 and of course some people with CP option may get chance ( PD later than July 2007 )

[TeddyKoochu]

@Teddy - What do you say now, how much probability have increased for you and me.

I would say now its atleat 33 - 50% the June bullein was truely a litmus test.

[TeddyKoochu]

So heres the question then....
Was NVC correct in its estimates, when it gave some fee notices to people with PD of end of 2007.?

Thanks,

According to my calculations the dates reaching Mid Feb 2007 is almost a certainty, NVC maybe playing it safe by having applications till late 2007 in their kitty it definitely is a good indicator.

I'm really confused. Doesn't movement of June 2011 dates to October 2006 kind of go against all the predictions we have seen in recent times regarding visa number movement?

Why is DoS disregarding all non-last quarter limits?

I'm inclined to feel that DoS was unable to gage upgrade demand by advancing dates last month, so they're advancing more this month to try to assess upgrade demand.

Teddy - does this make sense?

I have long maintained that PD porting is being overhyped numerically it almost certainly would not exceed 6K whereas we are expecting ~ 35K SOFAD this year. Now porting is happening more with later PD's if, yes if they really want to gauge how much porting really is they should move the dates even further. I think however what it means is that at the time of the May bulletin they declared that 12K numbers are available but put a rider that a lot of porting is happening so the dates that time moved forward by just 3K numbers to 1st Jul 2006 extremely conservative now that the porting myth is being broken they moved forward by another 6K numbers to 15th Oct 2006 there is still a 3K buffer for porting. I think all it meant was a over caution on porting that its very high but definitely that has broken down. Iam sure that in the July bulletin we will definitely see another 7K + movement and move into 2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

This is what I think..


Chances of date crossing 2008 is high by Sep 2011 but Actual card production may happen for people till may 2007 and of course some people with CP option may get chance ( PD later than July 2007 )

This bulletin is definitely a litmus test and a move in the right direction. However if we look at 2010 cautiously they gave 6-7K in each of the last 3 months. This would put the dates very close to the Jul - Aug 2007 line. I believe for all the cases with which they can attach a cap number will be greened by December. The more nervous they are about the Jul - Aug 2007 line being broken higher is the likelihood of the gate being opened to at least have a 30K buffer for the next year.

[ravi.shah]

This bulletin is definitely a litmus test and a move in the right direction. However if we look at 2010 cautiously they gave 6-7K in each of the last 3 months. This would put the dates very close to the Jul - Aug 2007 line. I believe for all the cases with which they can attach a cap number will be greened by December. The more nervous they are about the Jul - Aug 2007 line being broken higher is the likelihood of the gate being opened to at least have a 30K buffer for the next year.

30K buffer for next year means dates move into 2008 and then retrogress ?

[vdlrao]

According to my calculations the dates reaching Mid Feb 2007 is almost a certainty, NVC maybe playing it safe by having applications till late 2007 in their kitty it definitely is a good indicator.
.

Teddy, You are a good analyst, but don't be too much conservative while doing the predictions. Mid Feb 2007 is inevitable. We don't need 100% guarantee thing on the estimations but we need a possibilty of what might be the movement based on the available data.

The porting has been cleared or going to be cleared with the already available numbers.

My estimation is that about 6k went to for porting cases (Your estimation is also the same about porting from the beginning). And the remaining 6k might gone for the original EB2 India cases. That is the reason why the dates for EB2 has moved this far.



Estimating that the movement for EB2 India will be around Jan 2008 to May 2008 by Sep 2011.



.

[skpanda]

Teddy, You are a good analyst, but don't be too much conservative while doing the predictions. Mid Feb 2007 is inevitable. We don't need 100% guarantee thing on the estimations but we need a possibilty of what might be the movement based on the available data.

The porting has been cleared or going to be cleared with the already available numbers.

My estimation is that about 6k went to for porting cases (Your estimation is also the same about porting from the beginning). And the remaining for the original EB2 India cases. That is the reason why the dates for EB2 has moved this far.



Estimating that the movement for EB2 India will be around Jan 2008 to May 2008 by Sep 2011.



.

Why and how will DOS pick a random date in 2008? why not make EB2 current for 1 or 2 months and then retrogess? In this way DOS/USCIS can breathe easy for next 3 to 4 years. Not to mention how helpful it will be to applicants...EAD/AP etc.

I know that looking at the conservative approach of DOS/USCIS in May and June 2011 bulletins, they may not take the bold decision to make EB2 current.. but then I do not understand how they can pick a random date!!

Why I care? My PD is in late 2010 and if its not current now.. it wont be atleast until 2014.
Please dont hate me... i am just a little selfish!

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Why and how will DOS pick a random date in 2008? why not make EB2 current for 1 or 2 months and then retrogess? In this way DOS/USCIS can breathe easy for next 3 to 4 years. Not to mention how helpful it will be to applicants...EAD/AP etc.

I know that looking at the conservative approach of DOS/USCIS in May and June 2011 bulletins, they may not take the bold decision to make EB2 current.. but then I do not understand how they can pick a random date!!

Why I care? My PD is in late 2010 and if its not current now.. it wont be atleast until 2014.
Please dont hate me... i am just a little selfish!

Yes I guess that will be the big question as dates near Jul 2007, what will they do make EB2-I C or move by a random date. Your guess is as good as mine. If they make it C then it is good for people like you and me who have EB2-I priority dates in 2009-10-11, that they will get EAD. If they move randomly lets say by a year, then it means more wait ... May be they will move it by a year and see how much demand they get and then retrogress or move it more furthur based on the no of 485 applications

[LegallyGC]

Looks like they have allocated all the extra 12,000 (from EB1) in the months of May and June.

Now all the other spillovers will be coming in the last quarter..

gr8 days are ahead friends !!

[Irs]

Teddy, You are a good analyst, but don't be too much conservative while doing the predictions. Mid Feb 2007 is inevitable. We don't need 100% guarantee thing on the estimations but we need a possibilty of what might be the movement based on the available data.

The porting has been cleared or going to be cleared with the already available numbers.

My estimation is that about 6k went to for porting cases (Your estimation is also the same about porting from the beginning). And the remaining 6k might gone for the original EB2 India cases. That is the reason why the dates for EB2 has moved this far.

Estimating that the movement for EB2 India will be around Jan 2008 to May 2008 by Sep 2011.


.


vdlrao / Teddy,

If the cut off dates cross July 2007,

According to EB inventory data there are only 125 EB2 applications for year '08 /'09 /'10. Then there are only about 250-300 applications as per EB inventory released in Jan 5, 2011. Then EB2 should be current by at least December(2900/4 = 725 or 2900/12= 241 in October).

Else, there is most chances it will be current by 2012 Sep.

Any thoughts

[gc_on_demand]

Why and how will DOS pick a random date in 2008? why not make EB2 current for 1 or 2 months and then retrogess? In this way DOS/USCIS can breathe easy for next 3 to 4 years. Not to mention how helpful it will be to applicants...EAD/AP etc.

I know that looking at the conservative approach of DOS/USCIS in May and June 2011 bulletins, they may not take the bold decision to make EB2 current.. but then I do not understand how they can pick a random date!!

Why I care? My PD is in late 2010 and if its not current now.. it wont be atleast until 2014.
Please dont hate me... i am just a little selfish!

DOS and USCIS learned lesson from July 2007. Making C for EB2 India will attract 40-50k new filling and USCIS is not good at handing that load and finally they can't follow FIFO. In nutshell its mess for them.

Another reason for limited movement is DOS is doing same for family based category and it works well there.Last year they advanced dates to 2 years for F4 and now back , when they advanced , NVC sent out fees notices and started processing those cases since NVC thinks date will be current soon.

So I think if they are smart to learn lesson from July 2007 they should move until Mid 2008 and that can be pattern every year. This way whoever get current this year will be able to file and get GC next year.

[sachinhyd2003]

Teddy,

Thank you very much for your analysis. Your calculations are almost spot on.
It gives hope to all of us waiting for GC.

[anu_t]

skpanda , Don't feel guilty. Everyone has a right to be a little selfish. :)
Will the dates move to May 2008 and then again retrogess? If so , how much?

[longroadahead]

VdlRao/Teddy

I have been a very muted member of IV, but have been going through your analysis and commentaries regularly. here's my 2 cents. I am just keeping this simple without the demand/inventory analysis etc. :)

1. I actually agree that we'll gonna see some significant movements. However, even conservatively thinking, if everything remains same as last year, we should atleast see a 15 month movement from May 08, 2006; which should take us to July 2007. I am assuming that whatever 12K we got, lets give it to our EB3 porting friends.

2. Now here's the twist. If 12K is actually just for 6 months and we expect, some more from the rest of the half, then it should move it beyond July 2007, probably to October/November, depending on what the spillover is.

3. The USCIS dilema might be that if they want to open the flood gates making it beyond July 07, as there might be a lot of people like me who have applied in July 07 after that fiasco. If they do, my guess is that they will take it to November/Decemeber and then retrogress it by few months and walk cautiously till January 2012. Hope it make sense.

One more request to all IV members. I saw a post of 100 club on IV, wherein it is requested by one person that whosover here goes green contributes atleast $100 to IV. This is a great idea and i am pledging to do so, and would request everyone of you to do that. Hats of to you guys who are taking time out to educate people like me.

Good luck to you all...

[imdeng]

With the new bulletin (assuming Mumbai has not messed up again), it is clear that we are going to move really fast in the last quarter and exhaust all (or at least most) of the known 485 demand for EB2-I/C. Our focus now need to shift to what happens after that - how will DOS build the inventory needed for next year's spillover.

One thing is clear - a repeat of 07/07 is not going to happen - everybody agrees that it was a unique case and DOS/CIS will not let that happen again. Now, I see two options:

1. It seems that in the family visa category, DOS has used the approach of moving the dates forward by a year or so and immediately retrogress next month. This gives them enough demand to work for a while. They might just start using this approach for EB as well.

2. Perhaps the recent activity on allowing people with non-current PDs to file 485 for EADs is being considered for building inventory. Of course, they will not allow everyone to do this at once (then it will just be like 07/07) - but implement it in a phased approach.

Whichever option they choose, as long as visa numbers don't go to waste, EB2 is moving in the right direction.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, You are a good analyst, but don't be too much conservative while doing the predictions. Mid Feb 2007 is inevitable. We don't need 100% guarantee thing on the estimations but we need a possibilty of what might be the movement based on the available data.

The porting has been cleared or going to be cleared with the already available numbers.

My estimation is that about 6k went to for porting cases (Your estimation is also the same about porting from the beginning). And the remaining 6k might gone for the original EB2 India cases. That is the reason why the dates for EB2 has moved this far.



Estimating that the movement for EB2 India will be around Jan 2008 to May 2008 by Sep 2011.



.

VDL I believe our thoughts are similar but maybe the timeline of things happening are just slightly different. I think for the September bulletin they will have just enough numbers to exhaust the pre-adjudicated cases and the date may come very close to the Jul - Aug 2007 line. However they will do a big movement in Q1 2012 i.e. Oct - Dec 2011 to get the next batch of 30-35K new EB2 applications and then we will see a definite jump into 2008. This year only if we get close to 24K from EB1 is there a good chance of exhausting all the preadjudicated visa numbers + porting. Lets wait and watch I agree that Mid Feb is a conservative point most likely we will reach it in the next bulletin but we have to exercise some caution here just in case this year as just in case all the fireworks happened early. The Jul bulletin will be a litmus test of how much we are going to get from EB2 ROW.

[sonalik321]

Comeon June Visa bulletin (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html). Please show up now, i can imagine the heart beats of people from July to Oct going at higher pace..

[EB2-buddy]

They got from Mumbai Consulate(Most advanced in some aspects, though most pathetic in some aspects :) ) - Unofficial June 2011 Visa Bulletin for Worldwide and India (They mentioned this also in their site)
[Source: American Embassy in Mumbai, India]
Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html)

Oh well... I was surfing through and found out that immigration law site has published unofficial visa bulletin... according to them India employment based immigration dates will look like as below... not sure how do they get dates unofficially?

# India: Employment-Based

* EB-1: C
* EB-2: 10/15/2006
* EB-3: 04/22/2002
* EB-EW: 04/22/2002
* EB-4: C

# Worldwide Category (ROW): Employment-Based

* EB-1: C
* EB-2: C
* EB-3: 09/15/2005
* EB-EW: 11/08/2003
* EB-4: C

[TeddyKoochu]

30K buffer for next year means dates move into 2008 and then retrogress ?

I think they will not retrogress but the dates will stay forward i.e into 2008 but they will work on the applications and pre-adjudicate them and 3rd quarter onwards cases will start seeing approvals. The important pre-condition for this is that we come very close to the Jul - Aug 2007 line.

vdlrao / Teddy,

If the cut off dates cross July 2007,

According to EB inventory data there are only 125 EB2 applications for year '08 /'09 /'10. Then there are only about 250-300 applications as per EB inventory released in Jan 5, 2011. Then EB2 should be current by at least December(2900/4 = 725 or 2900/12= 241 in October).

Else, there is most chances it will be current by 2012 Sep.

Any thoughts

Literally current is possible after 2008 is fully exhausted because in 2009 and 2010 there are few people, very optimistic it is possible by 2013 and likely by 2014 but too many factors have to hold for this so it is still very early to say anything.

[mrdeeds]

Literally current is possible after 2008 is fully exhausted because in 2009 and 2010 there are few people, very optimistic it is possible by 2013 and likely by 2014 but too many factors have to hold for this so it is still very early to say anything.

Teddy,

When you say few people in 2009 and 2010, there was a recent conversation on this thread where someone calculated the PERM filings for 2008,9,10 and multiplied by the dependent factor to come to something like 100k backlog. Can you please comment on that?

I think 2013 or 2014 may be possible if the movement stays like it has been the past couple of years. Talking about too many factors, I think with the economy improving and more options becoming available for jobs, we may see more porting from EB3 to EB2 in the next years and that might impact the numbers available to EB2 in the next few years.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

When you say few people in 2009 and 2010, there was a recent conversation on this thread where someone calculated the PERM filings for 2008,9,10 and multiplied by the dependent factor to come to something like 100k backlog. Can you please comment on that?

I think 2013 or 2014 may be possible if the movement stays like it has been the past couple of years. Talking about too many factors, I think with the economy improving and more options becoming available for jobs, we may see more porting from EB3 to EB2 in the next years and that might impact the numbers available to EB2 in the next few years.

The 100K plus backlog calculation is correct ball park, the point is 2/3rds of it approximately is concentrated in 2007 and 2008 with 2006 being almost history now. So 2007 and 2008 will be the big humps for EB2 to clear.

[red200]

Teddy,

What is you prediction now for EB2 I
will it cross Aug 01 2011

thanks

[red200]

I am sorry aug 01 2007

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

What is you prediction now for EB2 I
will it cross Aug 01 2011

thanks

I think that there is a 35-40% chance that we will hit 01 Aug 2007 by Sep 2011 the big movement to gather 30-35K new folks will come in Q1 2012 this is highly speculative as of now. Lets hope by the Jul bulletin the dates reach Feb 2007.

[indo_obama]

Finally things are moving forward..........;)

[imdeng]

The 100K plus backlog calculation is correct ball park, the point is 2/3rds of it approximately is concentrated in 2007 and 2008 with 2006 being almost history now. So 2007 and 2008 will be the big humps for EB2 to clear.

My impression is that 2007 is the big hump. In fact, first few months of 2007 had the most 485 demand. You can see in the data, 485 demand in 2007 May-June was already starting to fall compared to early 2007 - July number is of course an aberration. I think once we cross 07/07, we will be surprised to see that late 2007 has weak 485 demand, 2008 even more so and 2009 goes back to 2005 levels. Once we clear 07/07, EB2 will be flying - assuming that economy continues to be slow. Two more years of spillovers like we are expecting this year and EB2 will be current or almost current.

[gopi544]

Visa Bulletin For June 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5452.html)

[coolngood4u80]

As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011

[LONGGCQUE]

Can experts on this note.. what should we infer out of this ..

As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011

[getgreened2010]

June bulletin is out....!

Visa Bulletin For June 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5452.html)

[TeddyKoochu]

Can experts on this note.. what should we infer out of this ..

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability

I believe that they have now reconciled porting and found that its not that significant.

[MYGC2008]

I am feared of Random Selection of applications to allot Visa numbers if it dates become current or moves beyond 2 years

[gaz]

what does it mean for eb2 2008 onwards? do you see any movement into 2008? if not then by when (best case/ worst case) do you think this will happen?

thanks!

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability

I believe that they have now reconciled porting and found that its not that significant.

[belmontboy]

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability

I believe that they have now reconciled porting and found that its not that significant.

All along what I have been saying.

Where are those pessimist's who predicted 100% porting??

[ryan]

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability

I believe that they have now reconciled porting and found that its not that significant.

I believe the "reconciliation" process holds partly true. As noted below, there are the constant unknown variables, hence the "reconciliation" is not a completed process, if you will, unless of course they chose to do away with the upgrade option. Anyway perhaps in the larger scheme of things, the volume of upgrades may not be that big a deal.

The last sentence I believe is more of a caveat.

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011"

[hydubadi]

Teddy -

My PD is Oct 25th 2006, is there possiblity to expect it to be current in July bulletin or do I have to wait till Sep 2011 bulletin.

Thanks!
Hydubadi.

[belmontboy]

I believe the "reconciliation" process holds partly true. As noted below, there are the constant unknown variables, hence the "reconciliation" is not a completed process, if you will, unless of course they chose to do away with the upgrade option. Anyway perhaps in the larger scheme of things, the volume of upgrades may not be that big a deal.

The last sentence I believe is more of a caveat.

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011"

The variables that would affect are:
1.) sudden increase in EB2-row filings
2.) porting

these two ain't going to happen in next four months.

I believe, USCIS is refraining from setting an upward movement expectation and playing it cautiously.

Indications are, come Sep 2011, dates will easily move to july 2007.

However, if USCIS wants buffer, then they might move the dates to end of 2007 or mid 2008.

[akshaya10001]

INDIA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 26,614
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930

from mid 2008 PERM processing was slow. 50% of 2010 numbers filling date may be in 2008 or 2009. at least India EB demand was not down during great recession.

CHINA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 7,393
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 3,328
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 2,112
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 4,052

With Great recession great spillover PD will move to mid 2007(June-Aug) then we need to consider last 3 years PERM DATA.
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569 + 3328(China)
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387 + 2112(China)
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930 + 4052(China)

90% will be EB2 but 20% PERM is for Porting --> 70% PERM Applicants will goto I-140 with 90% approval 63% goto I-485. Assume 8% drop (for leaving this country3% and changes employer after 1-140 and started PERM again 5%)

so 55% PERM applicant will be ready for I-485. Last 4 years Applicant pools is made of younger families or MS graduates. considering 1.8 family factor I-485 applicants will be equal to PERM numbers. EB2 demand will be 65K.

[sachuin23]

INDIA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 26,614
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930

from mid 2008 PERM processing was slow. 50% of 2010 numbers filling date may be in 2008 or 2009. at least India EB demand was not down during great recession.

CHINA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 7,393
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 3,328
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 2,112
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 4,052

With Great recession great spillover PD will move to mid 2007(June-Aug) then we need to consider last 3 years PERM DATA.
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569 + 3328(China)
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387 + 2112(China)
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930 + 4052(China)

90% will be EB2 but 20% PERM is for Porting --> 70% PERM Applicants will goto I-140 with 90% approval 63% goto I-485. Assume 8% drop (for leaving this country3% and changes employer after 1-140 and started PERM again 5%)

so 55% PERM applicant will be ready for I-485. Last 4 years Applicant pools is made of younger families or MS graduates. considering 1.8 family factor I-485 applicants will be equal to PERM numbers. EB2 demand will be 65K.

It is highly unlikely that 90% of filings post 2007 would be EB2. Almost all of my friends working for big US corp. with MS from reputed US universities had their PERMS filed in EB3 during 2009 - 2010.

[indo_obama]

It is highly unlikely that 90% of filings post 2007 would be EB2. Almost all of my friends working for big US corp. with MS from reputed US universities had their PERMS filed in EB3 during 2009 - 2010.

I agree with sachuin.....not everyone is EB2 . Anyway ai strongly believe if you can port and spend 10-20k on porting then do port or just RIP

[dkshitij]

INDIA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 26,614
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930

from mid 2008 PERM processing was slow. 50% of 2010 numbers filling date may be in 2008 or 2009. at least India EB demand was not down during great recession.

CHINA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 7,393
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 3,328
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 2,112
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 4,052

With Great recession great spillover PD will move to mid 2007(June-Aug) then we need to consider last 3 years PERM DATA.
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569 + 3328(China)
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387 + 2112(China)
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930 + 4052(China)

90% will be EB2 but 20% PERM is for Porting --> 70% PERM Applicants will goto I-140 with 90% approval 63% goto I-485. Assume 8% drop (for leaving this country3% and changes employer after 1-140 and started PERM again 5%)

so 55% PERM applicant will be ready for I-485. Last 4 years Applicant pools is made of younger families or MS graduates. considering 1.8 family factor I-485 applicants will be equal to PERM numbers. EB2 demand will be 65K.

Great Post! Remember porting cases still need a visa to be allocated and will add to demand. According to your calculation, about another 30K or so will be porting demand. Therefore Eb2 total demand will be about 100K.

[gujju]

Does anyone know how spill over from EB2 to EB3 works ?
Would EB3-I get the spill over first as they are the most backlogged country?

[EBX-Man]

Does anyone know how spill over from EB2 to EB3 works ?
Would EB3-I get the spill over first as they are the most backlogged country?

Nope EB3 ROW will get the spillover first and no estimation when EB3 ROW will become current

[SKR07]

Did USCIS post I-485 Inventory chart after Jan'11 ? If not will they release in june/july to show the demand ?

[voicerj]

Teddy -

My PD is Oct 25th 2006, is there possiblity to expect it to be current in July bulletin or do I have to wait till Sep 2011 bulletin.

Thanks!
Hydubadi.

Dude just get your stage setup you will be current in July for sure.

[EBX-Man]

How number of current members on IV ballons to huge numbers when a VB is released. Wonder where they go away during the rest of the month .....

[akshaya10001]

....

[akshaya10001]

Assumption of porting cases 20% are cases with priority date befoer mid 2007
porting case with priority date before mid 2007 are cleared.
porting cases with PD after 2007 are part of 2007 to 2010 EB2 Demand.
Only additional factor is porting cases with priority date before mid 2007 and filed after Sept'2010.

[sachuin23]

I agree with sachuin.....not everyone is EB2 . Anyway ai strongly believe if you can port and spend 10-20k on porting then do port or just RIP

The only way to port I see is finding a job which can utilize the experience that a person has gathered. With economy improving and companies hiring again, I would expect most of EB3 filers in 2009-2010 with a US MS/PhD to port to EB2 in near future (2012 onwards , just my gut feeling since all would want to have their I140 filed before they plan to port).Lets see what is there in future. Since we can not control future, we still have strong grasp on our present.
It would be great to unite under IV to push IV agenda across the EB community regardless if EB2/ EB3 and get our united voices heard by law makers enjoying cocktails in DC :). Small legislative effort like 485 filing even when PD is not current can help lot of people to plan their immediate future.

[EBX-Man]

Charlie Sheen is not on drugs but on winning :D

[AllIsWell]

What is the probability that it would cross Feb 2008 by Sep 2011 visa Bulletin

[vdlrao]

Does anyone know how spill over from EB2 to EB3 works ?
Would EB3-I get the spill over first as they are the most backlogged country?

Any spill over to EB3 will first go to the EB3 people who have the oldest priority dates irrespective of the country. This will help EB3 India.


EB4 and EB5 Spills --> EB1 Spills --> EB2 Spills --> EB3 with old priority dates (India & China)--> EB3 ROW.



EB3 has a good future ahead, if the MNCs stops EB1C filings for their so called managers, who doesn't have much qualification or expertise than most of our EB3 firends.

[indo_obama]

Any spill over to EB3 will first go to the EB3 people who have the oldest priority dates irrespective of the country. This will help EB3 India.


EB4 and EB5 Spills --> EB1 Spills --> EB2 Spills --> EB3 with old priority dates (India & China)--> EB3 ROW.



EB3 has a good future ahead, if the MNCs stops EB1C filings for their so called managers, who doesn't have much qualification or expertise than most of our EB3 firends.

I agree with you 100%.. should be by when your are in the queue.....or maybe a point system like in UK

[sanz]

What r the latest predictions guys....

[EBX-Man]

Any spill over to EB3 will first go to the EB3 people who have the oldest priority dates irrespective of the country. This will help EB3 India.


EB4 and EB5 Spills --> EB1 Spills --> EB2 Spills --> EB3 with old priority dates (India & China)--> EB3 ROW.



EB3 has a good future ahead, if the MNCs stops EB1C filings for their so called managers, who doesn't have much qualification or expertise than most of our EB3 firends.

Is that a assumption/opinion or fact ?

ROW has a higher preference over India and China, that is the reason why EB2I and EB2C are getting EB2 ROW spillover and not the other way around. In the same scenario EB3 ROW has priority over EB3 I and EB3 C.

[kate123]

Bulletin clearly states that spill over will first go to oldest priority date... so EB 3 I will get all the spill over visas...

Snippet from the june 2011 visa bulletin:

Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.



Is that a assumption/opinion or fact ?

ROW has a higher preference over India and China, that is the reason why EB2I and EB2C are getting EB2 ROW spillover and not the other way around. In the same scenario EB3 ROW has priority over EB3 I and EB3 C.

[imdeng]

ROW has a higher preference over India and China, that is the reason why EB2I and EB2C are getting EB2 ROW spillover and not the other way around. In the same scenario EB3 ROW has priority over EB3 I and EB3 C.

I am not aware of any preference for any country. If a category has spillover then that spillover is first absorbed by the most backlogged country in that category (e.g EB2ROW to EB2I/C, horizontal spillover) and if there is still spillover then it goes to the most backlogged country in the next category (EB4/5 to EB1 to EB2 to EB3, vertical spillover)

[srinivasj]

Is that a assumption/opinion or fact ?

ROW has a higher preference over India and China, that is the reason why EB2I and EB2C are getting EB2 ROW spillover and not the other way around. In the same scenario EB3 ROW has priority over EB3 I and EB3 C.

Eb2 row is always current..the one's EB2I and EB2C getting are unused EB2 ROW numbers and vertical spillover from EB1..

[imdeng]

EB3 has a good future ahead, if the MNCs stops EB1C filings for their so called managers, who doesn't have much qualification or expertise than most of our EB3 firends.

I am not sure. The outstanding demand for EB3 is way too much for it to move significantly without something like visa recapture. It might start moving quickly after EB2 becomes current - almost like EB2 is moving now. Still, even that means years of wait.

I am not EB3 but I sympathize with the pain of waiting for a decade or more!

[bondgoli007]

INDIA PERM Approvals:

With Great recession great spillover PD will move to mid 2007(June-Aug) then we need to consider last 3 years PERM DATA.
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569 + 3328(China)
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387 + 2112(China)
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930 + 4052(China)

.

Teddy,

Can I request you to look at the PERM numbers above and assuming similar spillover we will see this year, can you give a very rough estimate of where EB2 India will be around Sep 2012?

Thanks.

[hibworker]

Does anyone know how spill over from EB2 to EB3 works ?
Would EB3-I get the spill over first as they are the most backlogged country?

Spillover to EB3 will go to the person with earliest PD irrespective of the country quote => EB3-I

[EBX-Man]

Eb2 row is always current..the one's EB2I and EB2C getting are unused EB2 ROW numbers and vertical spillover from EB1..

thanks kate123/imdeng/srinivasj/hibworker for clarifying

Now it makes more sense and is crystal clear ...

All EB3 has to do is wait for EB2 to become current !!!!!
BTW that would mean both EB2 I and EB2 C has to become current right ?? .....

[MacX]

VDL I believe our thoughts are similar but maybe the timeline of things happening are just slightly different. I think for the September bulletin they will have just enough numbers to exhaust the pre-adjudicated cases and the date may come very close to the Jul - Aug 2007 line. However they will do a big movement in Q1 2012 i.e. Oct - Dec 2011 to get the next batch of 30-35K new EB2 applications and then we will see a definite jump into 2008. This year only if we get close to 24K from EB1 is there a good chance of exhausting all the preadjudicated visa numbers + porting. Lets wait and watch I agree that Mid Feb is a conservative point most likely we will reach it in the next bulletin but we have to exercise some caution here just in case this year as just in case all the fireworks happened early. The Jul bulletin will be a litmus test of how much we are going to get from EB2 ROW.
@Teddy and VDLRao,

I joined IV very recently but i have read the whole thread. Its almost 90 page thread and i never felt why i am reading this. It really feel educated now to understadn these. Not yet to write predict dates though :-)

Keep up the great work.

Thanks a lot for everything
-Mac

[TeddyKoochu]

what does it mean for eb2 2008 onwards? do you see any movement into 2008? if not then by when (best case/ worst case) do you think this will happen?

thanks!

I believe this year in 2011 by September the pre-adjudicated numbers will come close to exhaustion and they will have a fresh intake of 30-35K anytime in FY 2012 I believe definitely in the first 2 quarters. However we still have 3 bulletins to go lets wait and watch. However if they take 30-35KL they will only be able to capture maximum 1/3rd of 2008 as we have to side China as well.


All along what I have been saying.

Where are those pessimist's who predicted 100% porting??

Porting will be maximum 6K I think our estimate will hold.

The last sentence I believe is more of a caveat.



Lets wait and watch Iam sure the dates in in the Jul bulletin will be around 1st Feb 2007.

Teddy -

My PD is Oct 25th 2006, is there possiblity to expect it to be current in July bulletin or do I have to wait till Sep 2011 bulletin.

Thanks!
Hydubadi.

You should get it in Jul for sure.

[saddy]

For June bulletin - is it applicable from June1st?

[gc_on_demand]

I believe this year in 2011 by September the pre-adjudicated numbers will come close to exhaustion and they will have a fresh intake of 30-35K anytime in FY 2012 I believe definitely in the first 2 quarters. However we still have 3 bulletins to go lets wait and watch. However if they take 30-35KL they will only be able to capture maximum 1/3rd of 2008 as we have to side China as well.




Porting will be maximum 6K I think our estimate will hold.



Lets wait and watch Iam sure the dates in in the Jul bulletin will be around 1st Feb 2007.



You should get it in Jul for sure.


Why ? because there will be some demand even they clear files till July 2007. PWMB or porting demand. Once they have demand and supply of 250 visas they can't move date in Oct and not issue visas to those porters or PWMB filers.

But they can move date in Sep 2011 and have new filling but in Oct retrogress.

[PrinceVA]

I see too many numbers and little confused. I opened a .pdf file I-485 pending inventory as of Jan 05,2011. Considering, october 15 is reached I tried to put some numbers. I dont have data for the no of porting from EB3 to EB2 but let us assume 10%.

900 -- remaining 15 days of October,2006. (1747 Actual)
1737 -- November 2006
1881 -- Dec 2006
1540 -- Jan 2007
1444 -- Feb 2007
1404 -- March 2007
1420 -- April 2007
1070 -- May 2007
1272 -- June 2007
1673 -- July 2007
95 -- Aug 2007. (Only few days of August I guess.)
=================
14436

This comes to 14436. Add 10% for guys who are porting and that comes to 15880.

so Let us assume we will not get any spill over, even so.. dates can move well into
Feb-March 2007. (Assuming 12k Quotas to be released in July...)

so even 5k spillover should take us to July/August 2007.
I was expecting the same from June bulletin. Tell me I am over ambitious or greedy but above numbers indicates that expectations were not too high.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think we should be there by Aug-September.

[gc_check]

Based on USCIS Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf)

E2 -> 44,475 as on Jan 2011 + All the new applicants filed 485
PD for EB for June -> Oct '06
Approximate Pending 485's --> 35,000

Based on Demand Data
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Total demand for E2 --> 29,725

Though the demand should be higher, as it comes from both Counsular and Adjust Applicants, it appears to be different. Also might be, some are not processed enough (Name Check, RFE, etc) that are not generating demand yet.

Wordwide limit per FY for this category --> approximately 40,040

USCIS Demand Data -> Does NOT show significant difference in Demand for dates Prior January 1, 2008 and January 1, 2011. Surely this is not taking the PERM Labor's approved into account as they would not show in accounting until I-485 or consular application is made. Based on last forum post/update, looks like When EB2 if it is made current would generate another 50K+ demand very easily. This might not be the case -- Looking @ the data, USCIS has reasons to be conservative. But looks like the folks filed I 485 during July '07 will be able to get out of this mess in this FY (More optimistic view).

EB3 --> looks like stuck for now. Bad for only India. Rest is bad, but at least there are 2+ years ahead. All new application are likely E2 and will be ready to join and unless E2 is current, E3 will not get spill over. . ROW E3 based on Jan 2011 inventry 47,627 and since 40,000 available, E3 ROW could singificantly progress in last quarter starting July (Q4 of FY 11).

Based on inventory EB3, Of the pending 127,493 --> 47,627 from ROW and REST from RETRO. Only 40,000 available without spillover. That leaves approximatlety 10,000 atleast pending when FY 2012 kicks for ROw. Also Of the total E3 127,493 pending, India E3 is 58440 E3 (I) with PD 2004 or later is around 38,287.

Some analysis made on PERM data and discusions 90% might be E2 etc now seems like not true, Based on E3 (ROW) pending data 43,000+ waiting with PD '05 or later in ROW category. Approximately 15,000 anually and I think this might still be true for applicants after July 07 as well.

All this would indicate E2 could very well get to Current in FY12 and might be E3 will start getting some spillover.

If you are in E3 and from India, if PD is 02 or 03, might in FY12 or FY13. If you are in 2004 or later PD and if the economy is good, E2 demand is going to increase, and the spill over might be making a significant impact for E3. since the pending inventory is current, I think it also accounts for abandoned applications as well.

If E2, things seems to be good. E3 not at the moment unless congress acts. E3 ROW also appears to be five, They will most likely feel like E2's in FY12 in terms of movement.

Now this makes me more feel more pessimistic that would trigger action from congress for few E3 ( Approx 70,000+ majority from India and few other countries (Mexico, Philippines, China with only 5000+ pending) applicants struggling with the long wait and to do something about it..

The recession might have slowed down the applications, but within no time it is going to pickup. Will get an idea after last quarter FY11 and when the updates inventory is made available.

[TeddyKoochu]

Why ? because there will be some demand even they clear files till July 2007. PWMB or porting demand. Once they have demand and supply of 250 visas they can't move date in Oct and not issue visas to those porters or PWMB filers.

But they can move date in Sep 2011 and have new filling but in Oct retrogress.

According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count. Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current. Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k b) EB2 ROW 8K c) EB5 - 8K. Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste. I do agree with you that even 5K extra spillover in the last quarter will make it happen in September. Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers could make the intake happen in September itself , but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012. The 24K spillover numbers that is my guess is centrist its not too optimistic nor too pessimistic if you believe that atleast 30K more is to come then it surely will happen in the Sep bulletin.

[EBX-Man]

Based on USCIS Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf)

E2 -> 44,475 as on Jan 2011 + All the new applicants filed 485
PD for EB for June -> Oct '06
Approximate Pending 485's --> 35,000

Based on Demand Data
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Total demand for E2 --> 29,725

Though the demand should be higher, as it comes from both Counsular and Adjust Applicants, it appears to be different. Also might be, some are not processed enough (Name Check, RFE, etc) that are not generating demand yet.

Wordwide limit per FY for this category --> approximately 40,040

USCIS Demand Data -> Does NOT show significant difference in Demand for dates Prior January 1, 2008 and January 1, 2011. Surely this is not taking the PERM Labor's approved into account as they would not show in accounting until I-485 or consular application is made. Based on last forum post/update, looks like When EB2 if it is made current would generate another 50K+ demand very easily. This might not be the case -- Looking @ the data, USCIS has reasons to be conservative. But looks like the folks filed I 485 during July '07 will be able to get out of this mess in this FY (More optimistic view).

EB3 --> looks like stuck for now. Bad for only India. Rest is bad, but after there are 2+ years ahead. All new application are likely E2 and will be ready to join and unless E2 is current, E3 will not get spill over. . ROW E3 based on Jan 2011 inventry 47,627 and since 40,000 available, E3 ROW could singificantly progress in last quarter starting July (Q4 of FY 11).

Based on inventory EB3, Of the pending 127,493 --> 47,627 from ROW and REST from RETRO. Only 40,000 available without spillover. That leaves approximatlety 10,000 atleast pending when FY 2012 kicks for ROw. Also Of the total E3 127,493 pending, India E3 is 58440 E3 (I) with PD 2004 or later is around 38,287.

Some analysis made on PERM data and discusions 90% might be E2 etc now seems like not true, Based on E3 (ROW) pending data 43,000+ waiting with PD '05 or later in ROW category. Approximately 15,000 anually and I think this might still be true for applicants after July 07 as well.

All this would indicate E2 could very well get to Current in FY12 and might be E3 will start getting some spillover.

If you are in E3 and from India, if PD is 02 or 03, might in FY12 or FY13. If you are in 2004 or later PD and if the economy is good, E2 demand is going to increase, and the spill over might be making a significant impact for E3. since the pending inventory is current, I think it also accounts for abandoned applications as well.

If E2, things seems to be good. E3 not at the moment unless congress acts. E3 ROW also appears to be five, They will most likely feel like E2's in FY12 in terms of movement.

Now this makes me more feel more pessimistic that would trigger action from congress for few E3 ( Approx 70,000+ majority from India and few other countries (Mexico, Philippines, China with only 5000+ pending) applicants struggling with the long wait and to do something about it..

The recession might have slowed down the applications, but within no time it is going to pickup. Will get an idea after last quarter FY11.

Nice analysis but we all know that EB3 I is in a bad state and we are all hopin for EB2 to get current soon. If economy improves new EB2 will come in and EB3 will get bad again, and we all will again pray for EB2 to become current.

I like this prediction as this prediction has more chances of panning out as predicted :)
Power of Prayer ...............

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Can I request you to look at the PERM numbers above and assuming similar spillover we will see this year, can you give a very rough estimate of where EB2 India will be around Sep 2012?

Thanks.

If the dates reach 01-Aug 2011 this year then the next intake maybe till mid 2008, also consider China. If its say 2 months less then move the point for 2008 back by that many months.

INDIA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 26,614
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930

from mid 2008 PERM processing was slow. 50% of 2010 numbers filling date may be in 2008 or 2009. at least India EB demand was not down during great recession.

CHINA PERM Approvals:
Oct'2006 to Sept'2007 : 7,393
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 3,328
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 2,112
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 4,052

With Great recession great spillover PD will move to mid 2007(June-Aug) then we need to consider last 3 years PERM DATA.
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569 + 3328(China)
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387 + 2112(China)
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930 + 4052(China)

90% will be EB2 but 20% PERM is for Porting --> 70% PERM Applicants will goto I-140 with 90% approval 63% goto I-485. Assume 8% drop (for leaving this country3% and changes employer after 1-140 and started PERM again 5%)

so 55% PERM applicant will be ready for I-485. Last 4 years Applicant pools is made of younger families or MS graduates. considering 1.8 family factor I-485 applicants will be equal to PERM numbers. EB2 demand will be 65K.

This is a very good compilation.

[imdeng]

I know PWMB stands for People Who Missed ________ - the blank is supposed to stand for 07/07 - but I can't figure what it is - B for?

[cbpds]

Boat?

I know PWMB stands for People Who Missed ________ - the blank is supposed to stand for 07/07 - but I can't figure what it is - B for?

[h1_b_visa_holder]

EB-3 either ROW or India does not stand a chance...

As soon as the EB-2 reaches July 2007, it will move beyond to get more demand (either Current or may be by a few months or a couple of years)and then retrogressed as demand will be very high. So, any spill over will continue to come to EB-2 only. The only way for EB3 people to get GC is thru porting.

Very few people are applying in EB3 now, and even if they do, they plan to find a new job and port to EB2.

[TeddyKoochu]

I know PWMB stands for People Who Missed ________ - the blank is supposed to stand for 07/07 - but I can't figure what it is - B for?

B - Boat, I hope this will be history after this year !

[smuggymba]

I know PWMB stands for People Who Missed ________ - the blank is supposed to stand for 07/07 - but I can't figure what it is - B for?

Boat.

People who missed the boat.

[EBX-Man]

EB-3 either ROW or India does not stand a chance...

As soon as the EB-2 reaches July 2007, it will move beyond to get more demand (either Current or may be by a few months or a couple of years)and then retrogressed as demand will be very high. So, any spill over will continue to come to EB-2 only. The only way for EB3 people to get GC is thru porting.

Very few people are applying in EB3 now, and even if they do, they plan to find a new job and port to EB2.

You are quite candid and direct for your preference category
Nice :)

[imdeng]

People Who Missed The Boat - of course! Thanks.

[imdeng]

Very few people are applying in EB3 now, and even if they do, they plan to find a new job and port to EB2.

If this is happening then it is good for EB3 - less applications might mean that EB3ROW backlog will end and there will be horizontal spillover to EB3I. Of course, this will not happen anytime soon - but in a couple years it is possible.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

If this is happening then it is good for EB3 - less applications might mean that EB3ROW backlog will end and there will be horizontal spillover to EB3I. Of course, this will not happen anytime soon - but in a couple years it is possible.

I hardly come across anyone in EB3 (India) from priority dates for 2009 onwards. Even if you look at the profiles of persons the EB3 are the ones who rode the BOAT :D .. I hope these guys soon get to the shore (i.e GC) and empty the boat for us (EB2 with Dates of July 2007+)

[thankgod]

I dont know how they are doing their math.

But EB2 is going to current in next 2 years, I will be more than happy. Because I dont need to renew my h1 again.

Happy Computing................

[h1_b_visa_holder]

I dont know how they are doing their math.

But EB2 is going to current in next 2 years, I will be more than happy. Because I dont need to renew my h1 again.

Happy Computing................

I would expect us (as our PDs are similar) to have EAD's within two year. For GC it may take 3 or 4 year :)

[h1_b_visa_holder]

It is highly unlikely that 90% of filings post 2007 would be EB2. Almost all of my friends working for big US corp. with MS from reputed US universities had their PERMS filed in EB3 during 2009 - 2010.

I doubt it. I think 75% of 2009 onwards are EB2. And 50% of EB3 will eventually port, once they get jobs which qualify for EB2.

[sanz]

I am wondering did anyone really think when they first landed here in the land of opportunities that they have to wait for so long for one freaking green card. It has become the most desired thing for us.....

[gcseeker101]

Is this for just EB2-India or EB2-Complete?

I see too many numbers and little confused. I opened a .pdf file I-485 pending inventory as of Jan 05,2011. Considering, october 15 is reached I tried to put some numbers. I dont have data for the no of porting from EB3 to EB2 but let us assume 10%.

900 -- remaining 15 days of October,2006. (1747 Actual)
1737 -- November 2006
1881 -- Dec 2006
1540 -- Jan 2007
1444 -- Feb 2007
1404 -- March 2007
1420 -- April 2007
1070 -- May 2007
1272 -- June 2007
1673 -- July 2007
95 -- Aug 2007. (Only few days of August I guess.)
=================
14436

This comes to 14436. Add 10% for guys who are porting and that comes to 15880.

so Let us assume we will not get any spill over, even so.. dates can move well into
Feb-March 2007. (Assuming 12k Quotas to be released in July...)

so even 5k spillover should take us to July/August 2007.
I was expecting the same from June bulletin. Tell me I am over ambitious or greedy but above numbers indicates that expectations were not too high.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think we should be there by Aug-September.

[gcwait2007]

I am wondering did anyone really think when they first landed here in the land of opportunities that they have to wait for so long for one freaking green card. It has become the most desired thing for us.....

Life is to live happily and I am here in USA for living happliy. I am not stubbornly anxious.

I follow Teddy's predictions and be happy :)

[imdeng]

This makes me quite hopeful that once we cross the hump of 07/07 this year, EB2I is going to rocket. If we have another 30K spillover next year then my PD (Aug 09) is within reach since there are only 34K in queue until Sept 2009!

Ahhh - who am I kidding - I am sure something will happen that will delay it another couple years!! :-(


With Great recession great spillover PD will move to mid 2007(June-Aug) then we need to consider last 3 years PERM DATA.
Oct'2007 to Sept'2008 : 16,569 + 3328(China)
Oct'2008 to Sept'2009 : 11,387 + 2112(China)
Oct'2009 to Sept'2010 : 28,930 + 4052(China)

90% will be EB2 but 20% PERM is for Porting --> 70% PERM Applicants will goto I-140 with 90% approval 63% goto I-485. Assume 8% drop (for leaving this country3% and changes employer after 1-140 and started PERM again 5%)

so 55% PERM applicant will be ready for I-485. Last 4 years Applicant pools is made of younger families or MS graduates. considering 1.8 family factor I-485 applicants will be equal to PERM numbers. EB2 demand will be 65K.

[voicerj]

This makes me quite hopeful that once we cross the hump of 07/07 this year, EB2I is going to rocket. If we have another 30K spillover next year then my PD (Aug 09) is within reach since there are only 34K in queue until Sept 2009!

Ahhh - who am I kidding - I am sure something will happen that will delay it another couple years!! :-(

Crossing 07/07 this year itself is not 100% sure also if you believe in Teddy's calculations then he also said it is 30%-40% chance but the way dates moved in last couple of bulletins this seems a high possibility.

Hope it comes true and we are past 07/07 at the least.

[makemygc]

For June bulletin - is it applicable from June1st?

I think it would be June 1st.

[PrinceVA]

Is this for just EB2-India or EB2-Complete?

This is only for EB2-I.

[h1techSlave]

we can request the USCIS to keep a little more buffer and make EB2 C. And give at least 10% spill over to EB3.

The May 9 Demand data is a clear indication that the dates will move well into 2008. Two reasons: 1.We will get about 30k spill over more(excluding the 12k from EB1 for the first 6 months). 2. The USCIS may think they need a buffer and also they need some applications to preadjucate for the next year spill over.


Expecting a 2 year movement for EB2 I and China by coming Sep .

[EBX-Man]

we can request the USCIS to keep a little more buffer and make EB2 C. And give at least 10% spill over to EB3.

When asking it is better to ask for more and not make it specific to % ......
- Ask CIS to make EB2 C to collect new apps (This will help post July 2007 EB2 on H1B to get EAD/AP benefit)
- All EB2 who are pre adjudicated should be assigned GC (This will Green EB2 till July 2007)
- After that what ever visa is remaining should be given to EB3 most retrogressed (This will green EB3 to some extent)

This should make everyone happy .... Win Win situation for everyone
Any thoughts ??

Dont give reds because you dont agree with the post, but justify the reds by finding loopholes in the above argument if you can

[pbuckeye]

..
So a few numbers could make the intake happen in September itself , but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012. The 24K spillover numbers that is my guess is centrist its not too optimistic nor too pessimistic if you believe that atleast 30K more is to come then it surely will happen in the Sep bulletin.

Does the law allow them to advance the dates, farther than the last application, in Q1/Q2. I thought they could only do so in the last quarter.

I am still not sure how they are justifying this year's Q3 movement - probably by showing that whatever numbers they used were EB2 I/C regular quota (but then since India and China are at the same date, this shows spillover has happened).

:confused:

[rahul2699]

When asking it is better to ask for more and not make it specific to % ......
- Ask CIS to make EB2 C to collect new apps (This will help post July 2007 EB2 on H1B to get EAD/AP benefit)
- All EB2 who are pre adjudicated should be assigned GC (This will Green EB2 till July 2007)
- After that what ever visa is remaining should be given to EB3 most retrogressed (This will green EB3 to some extent)

This should make every happy ....
Any thoughts ??

Dont give reds because you dont agree with the post, but justify the reds by finding loopholes in the above argument if you can

Agreed..at least that makes me get an EAD sooner...

[dontcareaboutGC]

Does the law allow them to advance the dates, farther than the last application, in Q1/Q2. I thought they could only do so in the last quarter.

I am still not sure how they are justifying this year's Q3 movement - probably by showing that whatever numbers they used were EB2 I/C regular quota (but then since India and China are at the same date, this shows spillover has happened).

:confused:
They can use/ modify / interpret law however they want....and have done it many times!

[pbuckeye]

They can use/ modify / interpret law however they want....and have done it many times!

Sure but I was just trying to understand how do they usually "interpret" the law in this particular case.

Going by the language in the bulletin, they are basing the early spillover on the May bulletin's mention of how they will use the "otherwise unused" numbers.

[snathan]

Sure but I was just trying to understand how do they usually "interpret" the law in this particular case.

Going by the language in the bulletin, they are basing the early spillover on the May bulletin's mention of how they will use the "otherwise unused" numbers.

Even they can accept I-485 when the date is not current.

[computer_gig21]

Mumbai consulate dates are correct. one good news in the bulletin is that the porting is minimal.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY
As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

[smuggymba]

Mumbai consulate dates are correct. one good news in the bulletin is that the porting is minimal.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY
As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

bhai subah se kahan the??

[pbuckeye]

Even they can accept I-485 when the date is not current.

By simply saying "a visa number is immediately available"? I realize that USCIS has just made up the rule to follow DOS bulletin to accept I-485.

Again, what I am trying to understand is - whats their usual practice of "interpreting" this particular part of the law (USCIS/DOS in terms of spillover and dates advancement).

[dontcareaboutGC]

Even they can accept I-485 when the date is not current.
You are right- however they would state that they cannot because the law doesnt permit it. I am not sure if it is explicitly stated that they cannot take a i-1485 when the dates are not current. What it does indicate is that they cannot request or authorize a visa if the dates are not applicant.

[cbpds]

just observed someone seems to be stoned in our conf call, we have two now :)

bhai subah se kahan the??

[TeddyKoochu]

Does the law allow them to advance the dates, farther than the last application, in Q1/Q2. I thought they could only do so in the last quarter.

I am still not sure how they are justifying this year's Q3 movement - probably by showing that whatever numbers they used were EB2 I/C regular quota (but then since India and China are at the same date, this shows spillover has happened).

:confused:

I don’t know really if they can do that the other option will be to really start quarterly spillover. Maybe experts who know the law well can pitch in.

[mach1343]

Gurus,

A small question,

My wife travelling to India on vacation and ofcourse she has to get H1 stamped (not consultancy but direct employee) so my question for applying for I-485 and EAD do my wife need to be here in US or Can I apply for her without her presence in US along with my filing. My PD is not yet current but might get in next VB (Feb 2nd 2007). I did miss the boat in 2007 because of the stupid Atlanta processing center at that time. So I do not know the rules of applying I485. Please let me know.

Regards

[snathan]

Gurus,

A small question,

My wife travelling to India on vacation and ofcourse she has to get H1 stamped (not consultancy but direct employee) so my question for applying for I-485 and EAD do my wife need to be here in US or Can I apply for her without her presence in US along with my filing. My PD is not yet current but might get in next VB (Feb 2nd 2007). I did miss the boat in 2007 because of the stupid Atlanta processing center at that time. So I do not know the rules of applying I485. Please let me know.

Regards

I-485 is an adjustment of status which can be done only when the person is in the US.

[mach1343]

I-485 is adjustment of status which can be done only when the person is in the US.

Thank you Sir

[EBGreenCard]

Medical test of the person is also needed at that time.

[indo_obama]

Seems real quiet here after all the hungama yesterday ....

[EBX-Man]

Seems real quiet here after all the hungama yesterday ....

Wait till the next VB :D

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.

[rahul2699]

Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.

That's definitely an exciting news...I guess we are on correct track. Good luck hopefully you'll be green in jul/aug

[longroadahead]

Any guesses when we should expect another spillover announcement from EB1 (if the erlier 12K was infact only for the first 6 months)?

[rag1232]

Thank you Teddy. My PD is January 2007 and we booked tickets to India on June 8 and returning on July 15. We will postpone our tickets until we see July VB. If my date is not current then we will go with our plans else we will cancel the India trip.

Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

[silveroaks]

Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.

Hi Teddy,
Are we hoping for 8-9K every month for the next 3 months. If so the dates should move to somewhere Oct 2007 (exactly 4 month advancement for 3 months). Don't you think?

Thanks,

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,
Are we hoping for 8-9K every month for the next 3 months. If so the dates should move to somewhere Oct 2007 (exactly 4 month advancement for 3 months). Don't you think?

Thanks,

I believe that another 24K movement is possible this will put the date just over the 01-Aug-2007 mark if we exclude PWMB's and any new porting cases. If the spillover is more then we definitely will ho beyond. The real key to have the gate opened beyond the Jul 2007 line is that we should see strong movement in the Jul & Aug bulletins. I think if we reach really close to the mark then they will have to open the gate to have atleast 35K new I/C cases.

[frustratingGC]

I am wondering did anyone really think when they first landed here in the land of opportunities that they have to wait for so long for one freaking green card. It has become the most desired thing for us.....

Don't allow Green card control your life.

[larun]

Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.

Hi Teddy
By "big bang" do we expect it to reach early 2008? If so do you think my PD will be current sometime next year?

Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy
By "big bang" do we expect it to reach early 2008? If so do you think my PD will be current sometime next year?

Thanks!

Yes by big bang I think they would allow the intake of atleast 35K new applications however it will be India & China both I would believe that the date could be anywhere between Apr - Jun 2008 depending on how big of an intake they want right now its all speculative. If things happen the right way in the next few bulletins it will happen sooner or later.

[bonobocobra]

Hey Teddy,

Long time lurker here. So if I understand you correctly, you are saying that there is a good possibility of a 'Big Bang' in Aug/Sept time frame where dates move into 2008 to rope in 30-35K cases.

And in Oct it will retrogress to back to 2007?

[TeddyKoochu]

Hey Teddy,

Long time lurker here. So if I understand you correctly, you are saying that there is a good possibility of a 'Big Bang' in Aug/Sept time frame where dates move into 2008 to rope in 30-35K cases.

And in Oct it will retrogress to back to 2007?

When the big bang will happen is a little bit speculative however the precondition would be atleast 16K worth of movement in the Jul & Aug bulletins, that way the dates will come over till Apr - May 2007. After that it is really their discretion if they want to have it in September or a little later. So lets hope the pre-conditions hold true in the coming 2 months. They may not retrogress however they may not approve the new cases (Just leave the dates at the further point) as well we don’t know what will happen as there is no precedent for that, we may see quarterly spillover also happening nobody knows for sure.

[MacX]

Teddy,

Do you think they will move 3 months each in Jul and Aug and move big like 6-9 months in Sep. This movement is all for this year from what i understand from the discussion s yesterday. Will they be moving again in Q1 2012 (Oct-Dec) so that they get more cases, in that case how many numbers they usually want to keep and how many months we can expect. You said they might take new applications, what happens Q4 2012 then, is there any chances of retrogress?

I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac