EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[imdeng]

Teddy - this is a request from all of us with PD after 07/07. You will soon be green - but your insights have been invaluable here and I hope you will continue to spend some time here at IV and guide people following in your footsteps.

[rodnyb]

New info from June VB
1. Retrogression. Since DOS/CIS both know future demand is high, and want to build buffer for next year (they have to, as there will be 20K spillover. If not, they have to make it C for EB2 later 2012). The only time to do it is either in Aug. or Sept. as they can take in apps without approval (no use of visa number). When that happens, and since demand and supply are about equal now for EB2 I/C, it will almost immediately retrogress in the next month.

Say, DOS do that in Aug. and announcing PD of Dec.07 to Dec.08 (they need one year at least, buffer), CIS could use up all numbers (spillover) and retrogress in Sept.
The issues is DOS has to save some numbers for EB1 in Sept, and shouldn't use up all numbers.

DOS will more likely do it in Sept. when
a. EB1 could still have some numbers to use
b. EB2 IC can use all remaing numbers without wasting
c. New apps won't get approved, but give CIS to process after Sept.
To do this, they have to move PD carefully in July and Aug, to not exhaust all visa numbers for EB2 (as if exhausted, they cannot move PD ahead per law). So move to jan07 in July VB, and March07 in August in probably DOS will do.

The real issue for DOS/CIS and ppl who have PD between March07 to July07 is WHEN Sept comes
1. Who gets the GC? probably spillover is not enough for everyone before July07. I doubt CIS can do FIFO perfectly
2. Can CIS issue RFE for those pre-adjudicated cases and how much to defer some GC issuance to balance visa number?

As those ppl who missed Sept to get GC will probably wait till 07/2012, there will be lots of heated discussion and debate, shouts and cries...




Teddy,

Do you think they will move 3 months each in Jul and Aug and move big like 6-9 months in Sep. This movement is all for this year from what i understand from the discussion s yesterday. Will they be moving again in Q1 2012 (Oct-Dec) so that they get more cases, in that case how many numbers they usually want to keep and how many months we can expect. You said they might take new applications, what happens Q4 2012 then, is there any chances of retrogress?

I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac

[imdeng]

Mac - you are not too far at all. You will be filing 485 latest by Sept 2012 and perhaps as soon as Oct 2011.



I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac

[gc_peshwa]

When the big bang will happen is a little bit speculative however the precondition would be atleast 16K worth of movement in the Jul & Aug bulletins, that way the dates will come over till Apr - May 2007. After that it is really their discretion if they want to have it in September or a little later. So lets hope the pre-conditions hold true in the coming 2 months. They may not retrogress however they may not approve the new cases (Just leave the dates at the further point) as well we don’t know what will happen as there is no precedent for that, we may see quarterly spillover also happening nobody knows for sure.

How many visas till now have been consumed by EB-2 category from a possible pool of 30K supply (including spillover?)
If consumption is ~10K they will very certainly move the dates to Mid-2007 by July 2011.
The VO seems to have finally arrived at the same conclusion as the (Senior VB) Analysts:(p:confused:?) with IV that porting demand is likely less than 10K for FY 2011.

The wording in the May 11 VB that "no prediction for July-Aug-Sept 11 VB is possible at this time" was a dead giveaway that USCIS is quickly running out of a predictable visa demand pool and that DOS will have to act to prevent visa numbers wastage.
Another encouraging sign in the previous 2 VBs was a clearcut mention of the "gauging pipeline" terminology. This indicates that IV members and the VO is on the same page. We also know that USCIS will need SOME mechanism to provision the resources to handle the cases in any calendar year.
One way for them to help resources planning is to advance the dates, get new applications, preadjudicate those and retrogress back again. The DOS-USCIS has been doing this effectively with FB immigration and have done in the past with EB tool. (Look for July-Sept 09 VB).
It appears that USCIS will certainly come close to exhausting the preadjudicated pool of EB2 applicants (~35k pre-2007 filers) with this year's supply (~30-40K).
Based on this information it almost looks certain that DOS will have to advance dates well into 2008-2009 to "gauge the pipeline", but not making the EB2 dates current.
Based on the possible EB1 spillover of 20K visas it almost looks like DOS will advance EB2 dates by Dec 2011 VB for sure.
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?

[gc_on_demand]

How many visas till now have been consumed by EB-2 category from a possible pool of 30K spillover?
If consumption is ~10K they will very certainly move the dates to Mid-2007 by July 2011.
The VO seems to have finally arrived at the same conclusion as the (Senior VB) Analysts:(p:confused:?) with IV that porting demand is likely less than 10K for FY 2011.

The wording in the May 11 VB that "no prediction for July-Aug-Sept 11 VB is possible at this time" was a dead giveaway that USCIS is quickly running out of a predictable visa demand pool and that DOS will have to act to prevent visa numbers wastage.
Another encouraging sign in the previous 2 VBs was a clearcut mention of the "gauging pipeline" terminology. This indicates that IV members and the VO is on the same page. We also know that USCIS will need SOME mechanism to provision the resources to handle the cases in any calendar year.
One way for them to help resources planning is to advance the dates, get new applications, preadjudicate those and retrogress back again. The DOS-USCIS has been doing this effectively with FB immigration and have done in the past with EB tool. (Look for July-Sept 09 VB).
It appears that USCIS will certainly come close to exhausting the preadjudicated pool of EB2 applicants (~35k pre-2007 filers) with this year's supply (~30-40K).
Based on this information it almost looks certain that DOS will have to advance dates well into 2008-2009 to "gauge the pipeline", but not making the EB2 dates current.
Based on the possible EB1 spillover of 20K visas it almost looks like DOS will advance EB2 dates by Dec 2011 VB for sure.
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?

Two factors

(1) If they advance date to Early - Mid 2008 , date can retrogress in Oct 2011 with supply of 250 visas.


(2) We might have all together 12k visas in spill over. out of which 8k are used before July and only left over is 4k if they move date ahead or even stay at Oct 2006 ,, they may still have fear of Porting or sudden demand increase from Dis office that it will make date stop or retro.

[la_2002_ch]

With all the Predictions (Estimations) and calculations of all the expert people here, what are the chances (if any), of me filing the 485 in 2012 (with my PD of Late Sep 2008), or will have to wait till 2013?

[gc_on_demand]

With all the Predictions (Estimations) and calculations of all the expert people here, what are the chances (if any), of me filing the 485 in 2010 (with my PD of Late Sep 2008), or will have to wait till 2013?

its 2011 :) gc wait is so long people don't realize even year or two is huge time..

[gc_peshwa]

Two factors

(1) If they advance date to Early - Mid 2008 , date can retrogress in Oct 2011 with supply of 250 visas.


(2) We might have all together 12k visas in spill over. out of which 8k are used before July and only left over is 4k if they move date ahead or even stay at Oct 2006 ,, they may still have fear of Porting or sudden demand increase from Dis office that it will make date stop or retro.

Well thats why I asked can we estimate the visa numbers consumption till end of June 2011. If the USCIS has used 12K visas till June 2011, with an estimated 20K supply still intact, why would DOS worry about "unexpected" demand?
DOS needs to worry only if district demand will exceed 10K or so. Thats a possibility but hasnt happened before.

[imdeng]

In my opinion you will be able to file 485 in late summer 2012. You might not get a GC until 2013 but you will be part of the build-a-pipeline-for-next-year effort at the end of summer 2012.

With all the Predictions (Estimations) and calculations of all the expert people here, what are the chances (if any), of me filing the 485 in 2012 (with my PD of Late Sep 2008), or will have to wait till 2013?

[eyeswe]

"At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011"

Let us not get all excitied and perked up with this unexpected movement in June VB. The statement above tells me there is some fishing expedition going on. I am not ready to believe that there will be so few upgrdaes with the window opening to Oct 2006. My guess is at max the Sep VB will take India to Jan 2007. Dont also forget China. Upgrade is not done by India alone; China is also part of this equation. They have now brought both the countries on parity and so going forward in the spill quarter they have to make sure both countries maintain the Priority dates. So if India can go to Aug 2007 etc as some of you are speculating China also has to reach there and I am not sure there will be so many visas to spillover in the last quarter.. Just my thought w/o putting fingers to the calculator

[EB-VoiceImmigration]

Thank you Teddy. My PD is January 2007 and we booked tickets to India on June 8 and returning on July 15. We will postpone our tickets until we see July VB. If my date is not current then we will go with our plans else we will cancel the India trip.

Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.


I suggest dont disappoint your parents, relatives by delaying. Even if you are current in July bltn, it wont be effective until July 1st. Anyway you are coming back on 15th. Since your I 485 is already filed, you have nothing to do I guess.

Also please take attorney suggestion

[imdeng]

I think its just legalese to cover any unexpected scenario. We know the demand till 07/07, we also know based on PERM data that potential demand after 07/07 is weaker, and now we know that porting is well within the projected range - so there really are no source of unexpected demand at this point.


But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?

[rag1232]

I agree with you eyeswe.

[bratramm]

....and they know the deamnd till june 2007. Maybe they have more visas than demand exists, and are concerned about having to repeat july 2007 scenario. To avoid that they have to open the gates (very very very slowly) to about a week beyond june/july 2007 in july 2011 and see the demand in aug and adjust for september-which means they would either have to stop movement or even pull back a bit). The visas should keep the officers working for the rest of the year-and in case the demand does dry up, they can always open the tap by a couple of weeks-not a year as some have suggested. they already know on an average they get about 1500 visas from india EB2 a month-so a weeks movement will give them enough cases for a quarter at least.

But I agree-we should not get too excited-I beleive we will see a lot of movement in July, and little or none in Aug/Sep 2011.

"At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011"

Let us not get all excitied and perked up with this unexpected movement in June VB. The statement above tells me there is some fishing expedition going on. I am not ready to believe that there will be so few upgrdaes with the window opening to Oct 2006. My guess is at max the Sep VB will take India to Jan 2007. Dont also forget China. Upgrade is not done by India alone; China is also part of this equation. They have now brought both the countries on parity and so going forward in the spill quarter they have to make sure both countries maintain the Priority dates. So if India can go to Aug 2007 etc as some of you are speculating China also has to reach there and I am not sure there will be so many visas to spillover in the last quarter.. Just my thought w/o putting fingers to the calculator

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Do you think they will move 3 months each in Jul and Aug and move big like 6-9 months in Sep. This movement is all for this year from what i understand from the discussion s yesterday. Will they be moving again in Q1 2012 (Oct-Dec) so that they get more cases, in that case how many numbers they usually want to keep and how many months we can expect. You said they might take new applications, what happens Q4 2012 then, is there any chances of retrogress?

I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac

What I believe is that 3 months plus movement in Jul and Aug is required to have big movement in September something like intake of new numbers. However if Jul and Aug movement is less then there is no risk of the preadjudicated numbers being exhausted and September will also be conservative. So Jul & Aug are really key and critical.


Teddy - this is a request from all of us with PD after 07/07. You will soon be green - but your insights have been invaluable here and I hope you will continue to spend some time here at IV and guide people following in your footsteps.

I will be here my friend, you are my drivers, thanks for your appreciation. For me it’s a still a long road ahead the first milestone really is being able to file for 485.

New info from June VB
1. Retrogression. Since DOS/CIS both know future demand is high, and want to build buffer for next year (they have to, as there will be 20K spillover. If not, they have to make it C for EB2 later 2012). The only time to do it is either in Aug. or Sept. as they can take in apps without approval (no use of visa number). When that happens, and since demand and supply are about equal now for EB2 I/C, it will almost immediately retrogress in the next month.

Say, DOS do that in Aug. and announcing PD of Dec.07 to Dec.08 (they need one year at least, buffer), CIS could use up all numbers (spillover) and retrogress in Sept.
The issues is DOS has to save some numbers for EB1 in Sept, and shouldn't use up all numbers.

DOS will more likely do it in Sept. when
a. EB1 could still have some numbers to use
b. EB2 IC can use all remaing numbers without wasting
c. New apps won't get approved, but give CIS to process after Sept.
To do this, they have to move PD carefully in July and Aug, to not exhaust all visa numbers for EB2 (as if exhausted, they cannot move PD ahead per law). So move to jan07 in July VB, and March07 in August in probably DOS will do.

The real issue for DOS/CIS and ppl who have PD between March07 to July07 is WHEN Sept comes
1. Who gets the GC? probably spillover is not enough for everyone before July07. I doubt CIS can do FIFO perfectly
2. Can CIS issue RFE for those pre-adjudicated cases and how much to defer some GC issuance to balance visa number?

As those ppl who missed Sept to get GC will probably wait till 07/2012, there will be lots of heated discussion and debate, shouts and cries...

I think your points are very valid even I have been trying to say the same thing we do not have sufficient numbers in terms of spillover to green everybody till 01-Aug-2007 even if we exclude PWMB, there is still a large ground to cover. The key here is how much more will EB1 provide.

How many visas till now have been consumed by EB-2 category from a possible pool of 30K supply (including spillover?)
If consumption is ~10K they will very certainly move the dates to Mid-2007 by July 2011.
The VO seems to have finally arrived at the same conclusion as the (Senior VB) Analysts:(p:confused:?) with IV that porting demand is likely less than 10K for FY 2011.

The wording in the May 11 VB that "no prediction for July-Aug-Sept 11 VB is possible at this time" was a dead giveaway that USCIS is quickly running out of a predictable visa demand pool and that DOS will have to act to prevent visa numbers wastage.
Another encouraging sign in the previous 2 VBs was a clearcut mention of the "gauging pipeline" terminology. This indicates that IV members and the VO is on the same page. We also know that USCIS will need SOME mechanism to provision the resources to handle the cases in any calendar year.
One way for them to help resources planning is to advance the dates, get new applications, preadjudicate those and retrogress back again. The DOS-USCIS has been doing this effectively with FB immigration and have done in the past with EB tool. (Look for July-Sept 09 VB).
It appears that USCIS will certainly come close to exhausting the preadjudicated pool of EB2 applicants (~35k pre-2007 filers) with this year's supply (~30-40K).
Based on this information it almost looks certain that DOS will have to advance dates well into 2008-2009 to "gauge the pipeline", but not making the EB2 dates current.
Based on the possible EB1 spillover of 20K visas it almost looks like DOS will advance EB2 dates by Dec 2011 VB for sure.
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?

I believe that ~ 24K demand remains till 2007 this excludes PWMB and similar amount of spillover remains 8K from EB2 ROW and EB5 seems to be sure we have to have another 8K from EB1 out of which 5K has to be additional and we still have 3K remaining from the 12K from May. So if we see good movement say 3-4 months in Jul and Aug VB's then it will setup a very interesting stage for Sep. In September we should come fairly close to the 01-Aug-2007 mark then its really discretion and speculative when the gate opens for the next batch.

[MacX]

agree with imdeng.

[mk26]

Teddy, I see you became Senior Member/Moderator now in IV.. congrats..But I will make sure I get GC before you :) :) kidding.
I am thniking little bit ahead now, my H1 expiring in mid Nov-11, do you see I will get the EAD before that if I file timely I-485/I-765 ? any prediction on this? :)

We all appreciate your hard work here.

Good luck to you all

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, I see you became Senior Member/Moderator now in IV.. congrats..But I will make sure I get GC before you :) :) kidding.
I am thniking little bit ahead now, my H1 expiring in mid Nov-11, do you see I will get the EAD before that if I file timely I-485/I-765 ? any prediction on this? :)

We all appreciate your hard work here.

Good luck to you all

I believe that there is defintely a 50% chance that you will be able to file your 485 this year. The Jul and Aug bulletin really hold the key.

[vijay226]

what about eb4/eb5/other cataories unused. Are they going to spill over them to eb2?

[naveenkprasadam]

I think they should

[MacX]

Mac - you are not too far at all. You will be filing 485 latest by Sept 2012 and perhaps as soon as Oct 2011.
thanks for your good words. i really hope so.

[nishant2200]

I am just wanting to thank Teddy. So much seriously hard work and help.

[bratramm]

I think the dates will move rapidly in July-take a breather in August-move/stay/retrogress in September.

The reason is they have a good idea about numbers till jun2007-and if the supply is greater than that number, they will move it to Jun 2007 (or whatever the magic date is when the floodgates opened), then see how many more people will apply, and then decide on aug/sep.....I think this was the pattern last year too...they moved a year (13 mo) in Jul/Aug...and stopped in Sep....
my .002$

What I believe is that 3 months plus movement in Jul and Aug is required to have big movement in September something like intake of new numbers. However if Jul and Aug movement is less then there is no risk of the preadjudicated numbers being exhausted and September will also be conservative. So Jul & Aug are really key and critical.




I will be here my friend, you are my drivers, thanks for your appreciation. For me it’s a still a long road ahead the first milestone really is being able to file for 485.



I think your points are very valid even I have been trying to say the same thing we do not have sufficient numbers in terms of spillover to green everybody till 01-Aug-2007 even if we exclude PWMB, there is still a large ground to cover. The key here is how much more will EB1 provide.



I believe that ~ 24K demand remains till 2007 this excludes PWMB and similar amount of spillover remains 8K from EB2 ROW and EB5 seems to be sure we have to have another 8K from EB1 out of which 5K has to be additional and we still have 3K remaining from the 12K from May. So if we see good movement say 3-4 months in Jul and Aug VB's then it will setup a very interesting stage for Sep. In September we should come fairly close to the 01-Aug-2007 mark then its really discretion and speculative when the gate opens for the next batch.

[red200]

Total Demand left for EB2 I + C after Jun 2011 bulletin

7509 (c) + 14406 (I) = 21915 approx till Aug 2007

spill over 8K EB1 + 16K (EB2 row + EB4/5) = 24K

teddy how do you consider this 24 K spill over, Pessimistic, realistic or Optimisitic ?

and how much do you think PWMB would be till July 2007 ?

[rag1232]

Can we reach January 2007 EB2 PD in July VB? Please share your thoughts.

[rameshk]

Can we reach January 2007 EB2 PD in July VB? Please share your thoughts.

Yes

[vijay226]

eb1: 8453 (01/05/2011) + 800 (average per month) * 10 = 16453 - 40000 = 23547
eb4: 1,755 (01/05/2011) + 150 (average per month) * 10 = 3255 - 9940 = 6685
eb5: 57 (01/05/2011) + 5 (average per month) * 10 = 107 - 9940 = 9833
=============
Total spill over from other eb categories: 40065


================================================== ================================================== =========================

here is the split in eb2:


china: 10912 (01/05/2011) + 100 * 10 (PWMB + eb3 upgrades) = 11912
India: 24628 (01/05/2011) + 150 * 10 (PWMB + eb3 upgrades) = 26128
Mexico : 231 + 500 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 786
Philippines: 807 + 1000 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 1807
row: 7895 (01/05/2011) + 10,000 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 17895

eb2 spill over if any will be: 40,000 - 2800 (India) - 2800 (china) - 286 (Mexico) - 1807 (Philippines) - 17895 (row) = 13912
================================================== ================================================== ==========================

Total spill over: 40065 + 13912 = 53977

[rameshk]

I think in your calculation

eb2 spill over if any will be: 40,000 - 2800 (India) - 2800 (china) - 786 (Mexico) - 1807 (Philippines) - 17895 (row) = 13912

Total spill over: 40065 + 14412 = 53977

All this looks very optimistic ? but is this really possible?

eb1: 8453 (01/05/2011) + 800 (average per month) * 10 = 16453 - 40000 = 23547
eb4: 1,755 (01/05/2011) + 150 (average per month) * 10 = 3255 - 9940 = 6685
eb5: 57 (01/05/2011) + 5 (average per month) * 10 = 107 - 9940 = 9833
=============
Total spill over from other eb categories: 40065


================================================== ================================================== =========================

here is the split in eb2:


china: 10912 (01/05/2011) + 100 * 10 (PWMB + eb3 upgrades) = 11912
India: 24628 (01/05/2011) + 150 * 10 (PWMB + eb3 upgrades) = 26128
Mexico : 231 + 500 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 786
Philippines: 807 + 1000 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 1807
row: 7895 (01/05/2011) + 10,000 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 17895

eb2 spill over if any will be: 40,000 - 2800 (India) - 2800 (china) - 286 (Mexico) - 1807 (Philippines) - 17895 (row) = 14412
================================================== ================================================== ==========================

Total spill over: 40065 + 14412 = 54447

[skpanda]

eb1: 8453 (01/05/2011) + 800 (average per month) * 10 = 16453 - 40000 = 23547
eb4: 1,755 (01/05/2011) + 150 (average per month) * 10 = 3255 - 9940 = 6685
eb5: 57 (01/05/2011) + 5 (average per month) * 10 = 107 - 9940 = 9833
=============
Total spill over from other eb categories: 40065


================================================== ================================================== =========================

here is the split in eb2:


china: 10912 (01/05/2011) + 100 * 10 (PWMB + eb3 upgrades) = 11912
India: 24628 (01/05/2011) + 150 * 10 (PWMB + eb3 upgrades) = 26128
Mexico : 231 + 500 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 786
Philippines: 807 + 1000 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 1807
row: 7895 (01/05/2011) + 10,000 (PWMB + new ones as they are current) = 17895

eb2 spill over if any will be: 40,000 - 2800 (India) - 2800 (china) - 286 (Mexico) - 1807 (Philippines) - 17895 (row) = 14412
================================================== ================================================== ==========================

Total spill over: 40065 + 14412 = 54447

how did you reach the numbers after jan 2011? Any data/statistics that would support the numbers? or is just a guess?

If this is true.. then it will be dream come true for many...

if there would be such a huge spillover.. then USCIS will waste some visa numbers,, since they do not have that many pre-adjudicated/approved applications sitting with them. They cannot advance dates in the last quarter and approve them in the same quarter to be able to assign extra visa numbers... (i know if they assign a CAP number they can use the visa number but that could be a pain and USCIS would have gauzed this scenario and advanced the dates.. if they thought the spillover is that huge).

[tanu_75]

I think in your calculation

eb2 spill over if any will be: 40,000 - 2800 (India) - 2800 (china) - 786 (Mexico) - 1807 (Philippines) - 17895 (row) = 13912

Total spill over: 40065 + 14412 = 53977

All this looks very optimistic ? but is this really possible?

Most of the estimates are around 30-35k for spillover. One difference for sure is your estimate of EB2 ROW which at 14000 is almost double of others. EB1 spillover could either be 12k or 24k, which people are yet to be sure of. If it is 24k then you are right or else you'll need to remove another 12k bringing that down to around 36k. Not sure about EB4 and EB5 spillovers, but in my opinion your numbers are extremely optimistic, bordering a fairytale. Don't get me wrong, I wish this could be true, but after seeing the turn of events over the past 2-3 of years, conservative predictions have done better.

[naveenkprasadam]

I think he used monthly average.He might be right as well.

[naveenkprasadam]

USCIS - Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

[indo_obama]

I believe that there is defintely a 50% chance that you will be able to file your 485 this year. The Jul and Aug bulletin really hold the key.

Teddy as much as I love your predictions, I am wondering if you get your GC which will happen sometime in August who is going to do the predictions. I am sure you wont be seen in these alleys ..
:p

[vijay226]

I think in your calculation

eb2 spill over if any will be: 40,000 - 2800 (India) - 2800 (china) - 786 (Mexico) - 1807 (Philippines) - 17895 (row) = 13912

Total spill over: 40065 + 14412 = 53977

All this looks very optimistic ? but is this really possible?
Thanks for correcting. I used the monthly average available data from uscis jan 2011 pdf. Multiplied for 10 months as the fiscal quota ends in oct. Let me know if there is anything i missed in my calculations to make it more realistic.

[tanu_75]

Thanks for correcting. I used the monthly average available data from uscis jan 2011 pdf. Multiplied for 10 months as the fiscal quota ends in oct. Let me know if there is anything i missed in my calculations to make it more realistic.

Vijay, using inventory data is not accurate. For EB2-ROW the dates have always been current but we have inventory of 7897 with 2009 and before inventory being around 5000. We know I-485 processing is just a few months nowadays, plus this does not capture demand which is never in inventory and fulfilled as it arrives. Better methods are to use I-140 and PERM receipt data (from FLC and USCIS) like others have done. You should look at Teddy and others whose models employ those techniques.

[naveenkprasadam]

This is just another theory which might be right as well

[naveenkprasadam]

say for example if someone got married after filing their 485 their spouses will show up in 485 but not in 140.Just an another theory but everything is leading to >30000 spill over

[vijay226]

Vijay, using inventory data is not accurate. For EB2-ROW the dates have always been current but we have inventory of 7897 with 2009 and before inventory being around 5000. We know I-485 processing is just a few months nowadays, plus this does not capture demand which is never in inventory and fulfilled as it arrives. Better methods are to use I-140 and PERM receipt data (from FLC and USCIS) like others have done. You should look at Teddy and others whose models employ those techniques.
Not sure why you want look at i-140 or labor data. I don't think it captures the dependents. You are right regarding the uncaptured demand which is mainly for ROW/eb1/eb4/eb5 applicants. And i also don't think they issue the gc next day for the current new applicants as they have do fb, medical check etc which takes up to minimum of 2 to 3 months. What i mean to say is atleast 80% to 90% of the data is captured in the quarterly data for row applicants.

[tanu_75]

Not sure why you want look at i-140 or labor data. I don't think it captures the dependents. You are right regarding the uncaptured demand which is mainly for ROW/eb1/eb4/eb5 applicants. And i also don't think they issue the gc next day for the current new applicants as they have do fb, medical check etc which takes up to minimum of 2 to 3 months. What i mean to say is atleast 80% to 90% of the data is captured in the quarterly data for row applicants.

Even if it doesn't capture dependents it gives a true picture of actual demand generated (at primary level) and there are reliable multipliers for dependents based on empirical analysis over historical data.

[vijay226]

Even if it doesn't capture dependents it gives a true picture of actual demand generated (at primary level) and there are reliable multipliers for dependents based on empirical analysis over historical data.
Can you pls paste me the link where this analysis is done. Thanks.

[naveenkprasadam]

Final level is 485 though

[hotscud21]

My Pd is Nov 27 2006. Is there a chance for my PD to be current in next bulletin??? My AP has expired and I am wondering if I should apply for new AP or wait for bulletin to see if my date would be current.

any suggestions ?

[sandy_anand]

My Pd is Nov 27 2006. Is there a chance for my PD to be current in next bulletin??? My AP has expired and I am wondering if I should apply for new AP or wait for bulletin to see if my date would be current.

any suggestions ?

I would say definitely wait. You will be current next month for sure.

[gc_check]

H.R. 1929: To provide relief for the shortage of nurses in the United States, and for other purposes (GovTrack.us) (http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1929)
Do we have many Nurses waiting or is there is huge backlog ? May be this group has a larger lobby power/strength and getting support from Industry as well... Still introducing a bill means nothing until passed .. Need to wait and see. If this groups gets a big chunk from previously unused numbers like they did few years back (50,000), will need to see how it will effect the equation.
General EB Immigration and backlogs, etc.. at least for now is more India/China centric and it isn't a big deal for folks in capitol, given the current political climate.

[immigrant2007]

Even if it doesn't capture dependents it gives a true picture of actual demand generated (at primary level) and there are reliable multipliers for dependents based on empirical analysis over historical data.

agredd, in case needed there can be two variances i.e worst case and average or best using a multiplication factor

[vijay226]

Based on last year trend. I think we are going to have 12k spillover each month untill oct 2011

[snathan]

You are not allowed to post other blogs here...:D

[waitingnwaiting]

You are not allowed to post other blogs here...:D

Someone was advertising his blog here. ;)
These blogs have google ads and they want to make money from it. Predictions is good business. I wish I knew how to make webiste and could have made a tracking and predicting website to make a cool 10K-15K per month side income without doing much.

[sanz]

Someone was advertising his blog here. ;)
These blogs have google ads and they want to make money from it. Predictions is good business. I wish I knew how to make webiste and could have made a tracking and predicting website to make a cool 10K-15K per month side income without doing much.

i know how to make websites........u provide the predictions.....if not the green card we can get some greenbucks.....what do u say

[Rohan99]

Thank you very much IV. I received my GC on weekend. This is a great forum for people to interact. This is a magical thread, always attracted me. I hope everyone gets GC ASAP.

Wish you all very best.

[cbpds]

Congrats !!

Thank you very much IV. I received my GC on weekend. This is a great forum for people to interact. This is a magical thread, always attracted me. I hope everyone gets GC ASAP.

Wish you all very best.

[Mirza]

Teddy as much as I love your predictions, I am wondering if you get your GC which will happen sometime in August who is going to do the predictions. I am sure you wont be seen in these alleys ..
:p


Don't worry, according to Teddy's prediction, he has only 5% of chance to get current this year. We'll have him for another year. Good for us :)

[Honda]

Thank you very much IV. I received my GC on weekend. This is a great forum for people to interact. This is a magical thread, always attracted me. I hope everyone gets GC ASAP.

Wish you all very best.

Congratulations Rohan99.

[voicerj]

Don't worry, according to Teddy's prediction, he has only 5% of chance to get current this year. We'll have him for another year. Good for us :)

That's just not fair. For your personal reasons you want Teddy to wait for another year to get GC.

[skpanda]

Thank you very much IV. I received my GC on weekend. This is a great forum for people to interact. This is a magical thread, always attracted me. I hope everyone gets GC ASAP.

Wish you all very best.

Congrats to you and your family!! Enjoy!

[skpanda]

I hardly have any posts in the forum.. still there is a red mark on my profile? How does this work? If you do not have any posts then you get red mark? I hover my curosr on it and it says.. i had some shameless behaviour in the past... not sure what the heck it talks about!

Not that I care any less... but just curious...

PS: Although I do not post much.. i actively visit this forum everyday since it provides very good information!

[rahul2699]

Don't worry, according to Teddy's prediction, he has only 5% of chance to get current this year. We'll have him for another year. Good for us :)

I don't think Teddy is going to leave the forum once he gets his GC. He said numerous times that he will stay with IV regardless. Also his involvement in IV activities is so deep that he can not just quit IV....

[TeddyKoochu]

Thank you very much IV. I received my GC on weekend. This is a great forum for people to interact. This is a magical thread, always attracted me. I hope everyone gets GC ASAP.

Wish you all very best.

Congratulations and have a great time. Enjoy your green life.

I am just wanting to thank Teddy. So much seriously hard work and help.

Thanks for your kind words its collective work here. We are all contributing to the discussion and analysis here.

Teddy as much as I love your predictions, I am wondering if you get your GC which will happen sometime in August who is going to do the predictions. I am sure you wont be seen in these alleys ..
:p

Don't worry, according to Teddy's prediction, he has only 5% of chance to get current this year. We'll have him for another year. Good for us :)

That's just not fair. For your personal reasons you want Teddy to wait for another year to get GC.

I don't think Teddy is going to leave the forum once he gets his GC. He said numerous times that he will stay with IV regardless. Also his involvement in IV activities is so deep that he can not just quit IV....

Friends its a long way for me to go for GC, realistically I have hopes 50% now of getting EAD by Sep 2011. However Iam here not going away soon.

[gc_on_demand]

TeddyKoochu

What do you think about China having 1.7k cases in July 2007 in USCIS report ? They have almost 500 - 600 range till June and in july sudden spike.

I don't think that so many people applied for labor after seeing date current and got approved in week or so...

[voicerj]

Congratulations and have a great time. Enjoy your green life.



Thanks for your kind words its collective work here. We are all contributing to the discussion and analysis here.




Friends its a long way for me to go for GC, realistically I have hopes 50% now of getting EAD by Sep 2011. However Iam here not going away soon.


Yahooooooooooo ! if you have 50% hopes now i am a month earlier or may be few days earlier so i too have BIG hopes from the coming bulletins

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyKoochu

What do you think about China having 1.7k cases in July 2007 in USCIS report ? They have almost 500 - 600 range till June and in july sudden spike.

I don't think that so many people applied for labor after seeing date current and got approved in week or so...

That’s a great observation. At that time the substitution labor ear was ending and most attorneys were concentrating on those cases, then the dates became current and they were inundated with I485 filing cases. My own labor filing got delayed due to that reason. So these may represent cases that the attorneys got over the past 2-3 months but they delayed filing till July. But it’s noteworthy that there are more cases from China in Jul with 485 filed than India. I can bet that atleast 50% of the July filers missed the boat so you can expect heavy filing when the date reaches this point.

Yahooooooooooo ! if you have 50% hopes now i am a month earlier or may be few days earlier so i too have BIG hopes from the coming bulletins

If we have 8K worth of movement in all the 3 bulletins then yes we will make it most of the preadjudicated cases will be approved and the PWMB's will get a chance to get EAD/AP. Also then it will set a very interesting state for the agencies to warrant fresh intake.

[voicerj]

That’s a great observation. At that time the substitution labor ear was ending and most attorneys were concentrating on those cases, then the dates became current and they were inundated with I485 filing cases. My own labor filing got delayed due to that reason. So these may represent cases that the attorneys got over the past 2-3 months but they delayed filing till July. But it’s noteworthy that there are more cases from China in Jul with 485 filed than India. I can bet that atleast 50% of the July filers missed the boat so you can expect heavy filing when the date reaches this point.



If we have 8K worth of movement in all the 3 bulletins then yes we will make it most of the preadjudicated cases will be approved and the PWMB's will get a chance to get EAD/AP. Also then it will set a very interesting state for the agencies to warrant fresh intake.

Teddy - I haven't done lot of number crunching myself instead just read some numbers from your calculations and trying to figure out.

Let me ask you this, how much should be the movement in july bulletin to get us more closer to July 2007 dates. and also how much movement in terms of months for each of next 3 bulletins will lead us to Jully 2007 dates.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - I haven't done lot of number crunching myself instead just read some numbers from your calculations and trying to figure out.

Let me ask you this, how much should be the movement in july bulletin to get us more closer to July 2007 dates. and also how much movement in terms of months for each of next 3 bulletins will lead us to Jully 2007 dates.

The 24K movement that Iam talking in terms of numbers excludes PWMB's. Here is how the dates would be if we have 8K movement every month.

Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007

Even after this movement theer will be atleast 5-6K of PWMB bufffer for the agencies. friends do any of you have updates on the family based visa spillover for this year ?

[nivasrd]

TeddyKoochu,
Thank you for the estimate!! I was looking for this estimate to decide whether I have to travel to India from Jun 1st- Jul 3rd or stay put..Hmm..I missed my date in your estimate by a week:)...May be I can travel and come back by July 3rd to apply for August VB:)....

[rajuseattle]

Teddy:

Nothing comes from FY 2010 FB spillover during FY2011 for EB quota, if any new FB numbers are available from the current FY2011 FB quota it will be applicable during FY2012 for EB.

Usually DoS's demand data 1st page provides this information and during FY2011 unfortunately nothing available from FB spillover.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy:

Nothing comes from FY 2010 FB spillover during FY2011 for EB quota, if any new FB numbers are available from the current FY2011 FB quota it will be applicable during FY2012 for EB.

Usually DoS's demand data 1st page provides this information and during FY2011 unfortunately nothing available from FB spillover.

Thanks I read the folowing on Ron Gotchers blog as well to confirm, so we did not get anything from FY 2010 from FB to FY 2011 in EB.

[LondonTown]

TeddyKoochu: Thank you for all your hard work. I got suggestions to cancel India trip this year to avoid 221g during visa interview (employee-employer memo stuff etc) instead, request parents to visit US; as maybe by next year (2012) I should be able to file 485 and get AP for hassle free travel. My EB2 PD is Oct 2008. Can this be possible? If yes, will it be early 2012 or late?

Thanks Again.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyKoochu: Thank you for all your hard work. I got suggestions to cancel India trip this year to avoid 221g during visa interview (employee-employer memo stuff etc) instead, request parents to visit US; as maybe by next year (2012) I should be able to file 485 and get AP for hassle free travel. My EB2 PD is Oct 2008. Can this be possible? If yes, will it be early 2012 or late?

Thanks Again.

Thanks, visa stamping is very hard for consulting folks these days. If they open the gate very wide either in September or later you can have your chance else by 30-35K a year it may take 2013 for you to file for 485 there will be ~ 40-45K folks ahead of you after all the pre-adjudicated cases are cleared out.

[myGC_0507]

I cannot agree more. We got stuck in India with 221g as well but resolved quickly. I am also hearing the same happening to almost everyone visting India. It looks like almost everyone is getting 221g slip - specially for H1B holders in C-V-E model.

TeddyKoochu: Thank you for all your hard work. I got suggestions to cancel India trip this year to avoid 221g during visa interview (employee-employer memo stuff etc) instead, request parents to visit US; as maybe by next year (2012) I should be able to file 485 and get AP for hassle free travel. My EB2 PD is Oct 2008. Can this be possible? If yes, will it be early 2012 or late?

Thanks Again.

[bonobocobra]

Teddy,

How did you arrive at your predictions of 8k/month for July, Aug, and Sept?

Is that the total spill over from FD and FA for EB-I?

What I'd like to know is that is there any chance if the PD will move to Jan 08 this year?

[coors_lightbeer]

Hi,

My PD is Jan 2008 EB2. Any predictions on if I will be able to file for EAD this FY 2011.
I want to avoid the visa hassles for the visit to India if I get an EAD/AP.

Thanks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

How did you arrive at your predictions of 8k/month for July, Aug, and Sept?

Is that the total spill over from FD and FA for EB-I?

What I'd like to know is that is there any chance if the PD will move to Jan 08 this year?

This is a rough calculation on the spillover left a) EB2 ROW - 8K b) EB5 - 8K c) EB1 8K - This is 3K left from the 12K and another 5K. This matches in approximation to the 24K demand left till Jul 2007 it excludes PWMB.

Hi,

My PD is Jan 2008 EB2. Any predictions on if I will be able to file for EAD this FY 2011.
I want to avoid the visa hassles for the visit to India if I get an EAD/AP.

Thanks.

I think whenever they choose to open the gate for another 30-35 K new cases you will get your chance.

[harrydr]

My PD is 1st May, 2008. Any chance of filing 485 this year?? Really hope this wish comes true.

[designserve]

Mine is 2nd May 08 and I have my fingers crossed for next year... As Teddy has predicted, Ig we have 30-35k visas opening out after September... there may be a little bit of a chance...

[TeddyKoochu]

My PD is 1st May, 2008. Any chance of filing 485 this year?? Really hope this wish comes true.

The cutoff date of 01-Aug 2007 that clears all the current pre-adjudicated cases is still quite optimistic this year however if that is satisfied then for the next intake they would need 30-35K new demand this would include China as well. I think at best it will take the date till Early 2008 however if we do not meet Jul-Aug 2007 this year then you may have to consider push back by that many number of months additionally there is 506K PWMB as buffer the agencies are being ultra conservative. So the realistic chance for anybody beyond Q1 CY 2008 is really in 2013, 2012 seems to be tough. I believe the 30-35K intake will put the dates somewhere is Q1 CY 2008 (1st Jan 2008 - 31st Mar 2008). This is all hypothetical with some numbers the agencies may have something else in their mind.

[gc_on_demand]

The cutoff date of 01-Aug 2007 that clears all the current pre-adjudicated cases is still quite optimistic this year however if that is satisfied then for the next intake they would need 30-35K new demand this would include China as well. I think at best it will take the date till Early 2008 however if we do not meet Jul-Aug 2007 this year then you may have to consider push back by that many number of months additionally there is 506K PWMB as buffer the agencies are being ultra conservative. So the realistic chance for anybody beyond Q1 CY 2008 is really in 2013, 2012 seems to be tough. I believe the 30-35K intake will put the dates somewhere is Q1 CY 2008 (1st Jan 2008 - 31st Mar 2008). This is all hypothetical with some numbers the agencies may have something else in their mind.

If you look at PERM and USCIS data these three years were dense in I 485 average 20k each year ( EB2 India ). 09 , 10 is less may be like 05.

Now if we reach May 2007 by Aug 2011 then DOS should open gate until fall 2008. I don't think they are conservative in issuing visas but in predicting. Prediction is not their business and they don't want to predict something which can't happen.

If they are conservative in prediction means they don't trust USCIS demand 100% and always say sudden increase in demand. So to me they will open date until Mid 2008 in Sep 2011. Even though they don't have enough numbers to grant GC. in Oct 2011 date will retro to where ever date was for July 2011.

[nlssubbu]

I have different theory regarding cut-off date. Every year when they clear the existing backlog by providing GC, they need to bring in new applications in the pending pool to off-set this. In order to do so, they open the flood gates once every year to have new I-485's so that they get revenue back by way of 485,AP, EAD, etc. (Indirectly also create down stream money flow to lawyers and doctors)

In the past, advancing the cut-off dates does not means that those who are within the time frame will be receiving GC.

I witness this scenario many occasions in my past being current for more than 3/4 times before being approved.

People are off false impression that their 485 will be approved once their PD reached the cut-off date, but will be disappointed when the cut-off date retrogressed back.

I think it is better for USCIS to issue two different dates, one for I-485 eligibility and another one for I-485 approval to make things much clear.

Thanks

[vijay226]

I think we will have at least 20 to 24k spillover from EB1 itself due to stringent EB1 memo posted on DEC 2010.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/i-140-evidence-pm-6002-005-1.pdf

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Prediction of EB-2 Demand beyond July 2007.

This may be of interest to people who have PDs of 2008,09,10 and beyond

I looked at the PERM Data (INDIA), and per my analysis we will have approximately the following EB2-I demand beyond Jul-2007

2007 (July-Dec) = 9K
2008 = 20-22 K
2009 = 15-16 K
2010 = 35-40 K

The above includes dependents and possible porters.

So, if with all the SOFAD, EB-2 I is getting 20K per year, it will be safe to assume to add 4-5 years in your PD to be able to file I-485 (EAD) and 5-6 Years to get GC

However, I personally wish, USCIS makes EB2 Current once they eat all the demand till July 2007 so that everyone gets EAD at least, but even in that case GC will still take the same time

[TeddyKoochu]

If you look at PERM and USCIS data these three years were dense in I 485 average 20k each year ( EB2 India ). 09 , 10 is less may be like 05.

Now if we reach May 2007 by Aug 2011 then DOS should open gate until fall 2008. I don't think they are conservative in issuing visas but in predicting. Prediction is not their business and they don't want to predict something which can't happen.

If they are conservative in prediction means they don't trust USCIS demand 100% and always say sudden increase in demand. So to me they will open date until Mid 2008 in Sep 2011. Even though they don't have enough numbers to grant GC. in Oct 2011 date will retro to where ever date was for July 2011.

Lets hope that they open the gate to have a sufficient intake of people so that there are no issues with wastage in 2012. The Jul & Aug bulletins will really set the stage.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

I have different theory regarding cut-off date. Every year when they clear the existing backlog by providing GC, they need to bring in new applications in the pending pool to off-set this. In order to do so, they open the flood gates once every year to have new I-485's so that they get revenue back by way of 485,AP, EAD, etc. (Indirectly also create down stream money flow to lawyers and doctors)

In the past, advancing the cut-off dates does not means that those who are within the time frame will be receiving GC.

I witness this scenario many occasions in my past being current for more than 3/4 times before being approved.

People are off false impression that their 485 will be approved once their PD reached the cut-off date, but will be disappointed when the cut-off date retrogressed back.

I think it is better for USCIS to issue two different dates, one for I-485 eligibility and another one for I-485 approval to make things much clear.

Thanks

I have heard the same from someone else I know. I was told in July 2007 that USCIS has done like this before also (early 2000s). I truly wish they make it C once they eat up all the demand till July 07

[immigrant2007]

Prediction of EB-2 Demand beyond July 2007.

This may be of interest to people who have PDs of 2008,09,10 and beyond

I looked at the PERM Data (INDIA), and per my analysis we will have approximately the following EB2-I demand beyond Jul-2007

2007 (July-Dec) = 9K
2008 = 20-22 K
2009 = 15-16 K
2010 = 35-40 K

The above includes dependents and possible porters.

So, if with all the SOFAD, EB-2 I is getting 20K per year, it will be safe to assume to add 4-5 years in your PD to be able to file I-485 (EAD) and 5-6 Years to get GC

However, I personally wish, USCIS makes EB2 Current once they eat all the demand till July 2007 so that everyone gets EAD at least, but even in that case GC will still take the same time

PERM data doesn't cover the cases of direct I-140 based on Intercompany Transfer

[h1_b_visa_holder]

PERM data doesn't cover the cases of direct I-140 based on Intercompany Transfer

So as per you how much would be estimated demand for EB2-I ?

[dkshitij]

PERM data doesn't cover the cases of direct I-140 based on Intercompany Transfer

Those folks apply in EB1C and not in EB2

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Those folks apply in EB1C and not in EB2

Yeah, Thats correct. How I guessed the EB2-I demand is that from PERM data, I took a count of all India applicants (inculding declined and EB3). Then I multiplied a small factor of 1.2 to 1.4 to it to account for dependents. The reason I did not use 1.8 or 2 as a factor is to account for EB3 and denied PERMS. Again this is just an estimate which I believe is pretty close to the EB2-I demand which we will see. Other estimates are welcome..:)

[rahul2699]

Prediction of EB-2 Demand beyond July 2007.

This may be of interest to people who have PDs of 2008,09,10 and beyond

I looked at the PERM Data (INDIA), and per my analysis we will have approximately the following EB2-I demand beyond Jul-2007

2007 (July-Dec) = 9K
2008 = 20-22 K
2009 = 15-16 K
2010 = 35-40 K

The above includes dependents and possible porters.

So, if with all the SOFAD, EB-2 I is getting 20K per year, it will be safe to assume to add 4-5 years in your PD to be able to file I-485 (EAD) and 5-6 Years to get GC

However, I personally wish, USCIS makes EB2 Current once they eat all the demand till July 2007 so that everyone gets EAD at least, but even in that case GC will still take the same time

Amen to your wish..i hope so too

[pod1]

Hello,

My PD is current as of June bulletin. How long does it take to get EAD after the application has been submitted?

Thanks.

[GCFrenzy]

Lets hope that they open the gate to have a sufficient intake of people so that there are no issues with wastage in 2012. The Jul & Aug bulletins will really set the stage.

When we can expect the next I485 Inventory data from USCIS?

Last pending inventory was released in Jan 5th 2011; Does USCIS release the pending inventory on quarterly basis? Thanks for your valuable suggestions/predictions.

[vijay226]

Hello,

My PD is current as of June bulletin. How long does it take to get EAD after the application has been submitted?

Thanks.
180 days is the standard turn around time. You can check processing times in uscis website.

[satishalluri]

My PD is May 22, 2008. Is there any chance my PD will be current or atleast apply for EAD this year(2011)

Thanks in Advance
Satish

[adibhatla]

With all due respect please read some earlier posts.

We all should refrain from asking questions that benefit you as an individual but should be for the betterment of the EB community.

Now to answer your question, Teddy had responded the following:

The 24K movement that Iam talking in terms of numbers excludes PWMB's. Here is how the dates would be if we have 8K movement every month.

Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007

Even after this movement theer will be atleast 5-6K of PWMB bufffer for the agencies. friends do any of you have updates on the family based visa spillover for this year ?

[vijay226]

With all due respect please read some earlier posts.

We all should refrain from asking questions that benefit you as an individual but should be for the betterment of the EB community.

Now to answer your question, Teddy had responded the following:

The 24K movement that Iam talking in terms of numbers excludes PWMB's. Here is how the dates would be if we have 8K movement every month.

Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007

Even after this movement theer will be atleast 5-6K of PWMB bufffer for the agencies. friends do any of you have updates on the family based visa spillover for this year ?
Exactly, we need to find total spill over for the last years (2009 thru 2010). Does any one have any official info:

how many got spillovered ?

how many got wasted?

[h1_b_visa_holder]

My PD is May 22, 2008. Is there any chance my PD will be current or atleast apply for EAD this year(2011)

Thanks in Advance
Satish

Of course .. 50%, and 100% by Sep 2012

[h1_b_visa_holder]

When we can expect the next I485 Inventory data from USCIS?

Last pending inventory was released in Jan 5th 2011; Does USCIS release the pending inventory on quarterly basis? Thanks for your valuable suggestions/predictions.


Hopefully by end of this month

[skpanda]

There is no set guideline when the Inventory will be released. However USCIS has been releasing updates in 3 to 4 months gap.

Ideally we should have got it in April 2011. I think since there was not much movement in numbers, there is no reason to release a new inventory.Since a signficant spillover is applied as per June VB... I would guess it will make sense for USCIS to release the inventory in July 2011 and then Oct 2011. But then USCIS is unpredictable.

I know many people (including me) are eagerly waiting for the updated inventory so that our calculations and predictions would be more reliable.

Hang in there.. we will get it soon!!



When we can expect the next I485 Inventory data from USCIS?

Last pending inventory was released in Jan 5th 2011; Does USCIS release the pending inventory on quarterly basis? Thanks for your valuable suggestions/predictions.

[nlssubbu]

Yes. It did happened during that time as well. In my opinion, some of the backlog is artificial created by USCIS in order to get money out of poor immigrant. As we do not have a big clout, no one cares about our issues :(

[nlssubbu]

.

[cotes]

Hi Guys,
What can we possible scenarios...
Sept 2011 - My PD become current employer file for EAD/485/AP and leave him in 6mnths.
Jul 2012 - My PD become current employer file for EAD/485/AP and leave him in 6 mnths.

or

Can i leave him in 2-3 mnths after getting EAD. Did job search everyone seems good with W2 no (1099 or C2C)

Need some suggestions
Thanks
Cotes

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Hi Guys,
What can we possible scenarios...
Sept 2011 - My PD become current employer file for EAD/485/AP and leave him in 6mnths.
Jul 2012 - My PD become current employer file for EAD/485/AP and leave him in 6 mnths.

or

Can i leave him in 2-3 mnths after getting EAD. Did job search everyone seems good with W2 no (1099 or C2C)

Need some suggestions
Thanks
Cotes

Boy.. you need to clear your mind before writing.. just read what you typed and see if it makes sense if you were asked the same question

Your 485 should be pending for 6 months ... so 6 months after you file your EAD / AP. Congrats as your date is very near now ...

[cotes]

Boy.. you need to clear your mind before writing.. just read what you typed and see if it makes sense if you were asked the same question

Your 485 should be pending for 6 months ... so 6 months after you file your EAD / AP. Congrats as your date is very near now ...

Sorry about my question just wanted to ask can i switch job directly after filing 485 or need to wait 6 months.

[cotes]

Got it thanks

[immigrant2007]

So as per you how much would be estimated demand for EB2-I ?

I am expecting around 8000-10000 more due to porting but again porting has a big window (around 6-7000 cases between 2003 and 2007)

[immigrant2007]

Prediction of EB-2 Demand beyond July 2007.

This may be of interest to people who have PDs of 2008,09,10 and beyond

I looked at the PERM Data (INDIA), and per my analysis we will have approximately the following EB2-I demand beyond Jul-2007

2007 (July-Dec) = 9K
2008 = 20-22 K
2009 = 15-16 K
2010 = 35-40 K

The above includes dependents and possible porters.

So, if with all the SOFAD, EB-2 I is getting 20K per year, it will be safe to assume to add 4-5 years in your PD to be able to file I-485 (EAD) and 5-6 Years to get GC

However, I personally wish, USCIS makes EB2 Current once they eat all the demand till July 2007 so that everyone gets EAD at least, but even in that case GC will still take the same time

Sounds logical but how the porters would try to use thier original date which means that they ahould go before 2007 (or spread evenly from 2007 to 2010)

[immigrant2007]

Those folks apply in EB1C and not in EB2

correct.....it was for porting used the wrong term here......

[omnipresence]

Hi,
My case has been transferred to National Benefit Center today (May 17th). My PD is current since May 1st (PD: May 2006).

I did some research for the past one hour, it seems all cases that are sent to NBC would be called for in-person interview at your local office. Usually it takes about 2-3 months to get the interview call.

Now my questions, since my PD is current - would that make things any faster? I have some travel plans so I am not sure if I should go ahead the travel plans.


thanks,

[Honda]

Yes. It did happened during that time as well. In my opinion, some of the backlog is artificial created by USCIS in order to get money out of poor immigrant. As we do not have a big clout, no one cares about our issues :(

Yes. you are absolutely right dude.

[rodnyb]

New development that could change DOS PD decision

1. TSC processing increase to September 6, 2010 while NSC still at 4 months
Based on previous process chart (couldn't find the link now), TSC has over 50% EB than NSC
Did TSC become less efficient in processing EB GC? Or many new apps coming in?

2. Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory still not updated
Did CIS has no clue how many they have approved and pre-adjudicated? I mean no exact count? What about waiting for CP (I know it is small number) and NVC (counted in inventory?)

3. FB 12K spill over
Some one (another site) find out that CIS indeed didn't fully use the FB last year (they were saying fully used to DOS, and thus DOS has 0 for EB). Will DOS be able to use those 12K for EB? Their demand doc still says 0

4. CIS efficiency
Will DOS look at the snap shot at may 31th, and decide all new apps (EB1 EB2 ROW) won't be approved after June 1st? So they have a clear view of demand and visa used?

5. New pipeline
If they don't move EB2 PD quick enough before Oct. 1 2011. According to law, if not enough inventory (say in July 2012 to satisfy 20K spillover), they have to make it Current. Are they risking doing that? Or open the gate a little in Aug/Sept2011 to take in some new inventory?

[vijay226]

New development that could change DOS PD decision

1. TSC processing increase to September 6, 2010 while NSC still at 4 months
Based on previous process chart (couldn't find the link now), TSC has over 50% EB than NSC
Did TSC become less efficient in processing EB GC? Or many new apps coming in?

2. Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory still not updated
Did CIS has no clue how many they have approved and pre-adjudicated? I mean no exact count? What about waiting for CP (I know it is small number) and NVC (counted in inventory?)

3. FB 12K spill over
Some one (another site) find out that CIS indeed didn't fully use the FB last year (they were saying fully used to DOS, and thus DOS has 0 for EB). Will DOS be able to use those 12K for EB? Their demand doc still says 0

4. CIS efficiency
Will DOS look at the snap shot at may 31th, and decide all new apps (EB1 EB2 ROW) won't be approved after June 1st? So they have a clear view of demand and visa used?

5. New pipeline
If they don't move EB2 PD quick enough before Oct. 1 2011. According to law, if not enough inventory (say in July 2012 to satisfy 20K spillover), they have to make it Current. Are they risking doing that? Or open the gate a little in Aug/Sept2011 to take in some new inventory?
Let me answer some of the above

1) Most of the application from the local offices moved to TSC recently as part of new memo. May be thats the reason for the lag at tsc

2) Since they just moved the dates, i believe CIS waiting to include new application volume inorder to post the new inventory

3) Not sure if they are going to do that, as CIS already told no spillover from FB this year. If there is a spillover from FB, they usually post it in oct bullitein. I dont see any wording regarding that. Bullitein says 140000

4) I think they will wait untill June 10 to determine the demand. So that they have some buffer to count new applicants (PWMB)

5) Most likely they will open the gates in aug/sept to take in some new inventory

4)

[ramasubbareddy]

Hi

My PD is Oct 08.is it possible that my Pd will become current in 2012?

[dxldad]

Hi

My PD is Oct 08.is it possible that my Pd will become current in 2012?

EB2 or 3?

[ramasubbareddy]

It is Eb2

[voicerj]

It is Eb2

There are around 70% chances you will be current next year.

[ramasubbareddy]

Hi

My PD is Oct 08 in EB2 .is it possible that my Pd will become current in 2012?

[harrydr]

MY PD is May 1st , 2008 and i'm hoping to get current this year. Maybe it's too optimistic but it may just happen if dates mover close to may 2007 next month.

[rodnyb]

1. SO TSC and NSC have most all pre-adjudicated cases now? How many still in CP or NVC?
2. I don't think they are waiting for new apps to add in. CIS supposed had published this every quarter. Since there is no balance and check on them so they do that at their own leisure, especially they are not sure (my guess).
3. I read some lawyer noticed that and I guess AILA will pursue that if that 12K is for sure. They should apply this year if it is from 2010. Oct2011 will for 2011 fiscal year.
4. CIS internal operation procedure could probably halt new app processing after June 10th as you indicated? I remember after 07/2007, the processing time is years.
5. The gate will cause a mess for sure, even they pass 07/2007 to late 2007. I doubt they have enough number to approve all ppl w/ PD before 07/31/2007 and CIS won't follow FIFO (I mean, has no way, or no mechanism).


Let me answer some of the above

1) Most of the application from the local offices moved to TSC recently as part of new memo. May be thats the reason for the lag at tsc

2) Since they just moved the dates, i believe CIS waiting to include new application volume inorder to post the new inventory

3) Not sure if they are going to do that, as CIS already told no spillover from FB this year. If there is a spillover from FB, they usually post it in oct bullitein. I dont see any wording regarding that. Bullitein says 140000

4) I think they will wait untill June 10 to determine the demand. So that they have some buffer to count new applicants (PWMB)

5) Most likely they will open the gates in aug/sept to take in some new inventory

4)

[indo_obama]

Based on last year trend. I think we are going to have 12k spillover each month untill oct 2011

i thought the total was 12k. didnt know it was 12k each month. can someone confirm:eek:

[hello]

Hi

My PD is Oct 08.is it possible that my Pd will become current in 2012?Don't hide.Post Your time line first.

[pknkak]

ramasubbareddy-decide first if your pd is Jun-08 or Oct-08. Your user signature says Jun-08

[cbpds]

deleted

ramasubbareddy-decide first if your pd is Jun-08 or Oct-08. Your user signature says Jun-08

[gc4ani]

good afternoon
if the all the pending eb-2 (cases applied 485 before july-2007) are adjudicated and say for example in the last month date moves to jan-2008, but about 5000 visas are available ..in this senario what happens to those visas , are they going to be vasted or alloted to eb-3 category.

[dxldad]

good afternoon
if the all the pending eb-2 (cases applied 485 before july-2007) are adjudicated and say for example in the last month date moves to jan-2008, but about 5000 visas are available ..in this senario what happens to those visas , are they going to be vasted or alloted to eb-3 category.

Then they would move the EB2 I and C dates forward up to current. EB3 will get the numbers only after EB2 is current.

[gc4ani]

continuation of earlier post..
my argument is ..even though pd moves for eb-2 at the end of this year there is going to be some difference in no ..either 2 .pending cases are more than spillover before july -2007.(in this case the date will move to july 2007 nex year)
2. if pending cases are less than spill over ( most possiblle senario) then there going to be few thousand visa numbers ( as date may move advanced but 485 process takes about 6 months like finger printing etc)
..and my quetion is in 2 nd senarion the visa no will be wasted or used by eb3-row?
plaese any gurus can anwer

[gc4ani]

continuation of earlier post..
my argument is ..even though pd moves for eb-2 at the end of this year there is going to be some difference in no ..either 2 .pending cases are more than spillover before july -2007.(in this case the date will move to july 2007 nex year)
2. if pending cases are less than spill over ( most possiblle senario) then there going to be few thousand visa numbers ( as date may move advanced but 485 process takes about 6 months like finger printing etc)
..and my quetion is in 2 nd senarion the visa no will be wasted or used by eb3-row?
plaese any gurus can answer

[MacX]

There are around 70% chances you will be current next year.
@voicerj:
I am not sure on what basis you are able to tell there is 70% chance that EB2 Oct 08 is going to be current in 2012. I think there is 20-30% chance.

ramasubbareddy- not to discourage you. Even mine is Oct 2008 EB2 but i think its better not to be too optimistic sometimes.

-Mac

[gujju]

GC4ANI,

I thought any spillover from EB2 would goto EB-I and not EB3 ROW as EB3I is the most retrogressed.
Any thoughts anyone ?

[Caliber]

GC4ANI,

I thought any spillover from EB2 would goto EB-I and not EB3 ROW as EB3I is the most retrogressed.
Any thoughts anyone ?

If that scenario ever occurs, yes EB3 I would get some numbers.

[reddymjm]

GC4ANI,

I thought any spillover from EB2 would goto EB-I and not EB3 ROW as EB3I is the most retrogressed.
Any thoughts anyone ?

EB3 ROW will get it. Then the worst retrogressed.

[Honda]

I am hoping EB3 might not retrogressed. But we never know.....

[gujju]

EB3 ROW will get it. Then the worst retrogressed.

Reddymjm,
On what basis are u able to say EB3Row will get spill over first and not EB3I.If u can elaborate that would be great.I just want to understand how it works,

Thanks,

[gc_check]

Reddymjm,
On what basis are u able to say EB3Row will get spill over first and not EB3I.If u can elaborate that would be great.I just want to understand how it works,

Thanks,

My understanding is the same. Only if ROW is current, then they can assign spillover visa to over subscribed countries beyond the 7% limit.

[immigrant0809]

Reddymjm,
On what basis are u able to say EB3Row will get spill over first and not EB3I.If u can elaborate that would be great.I just want to understand how it works,

Thanks,
From another site.
The spillover rules are controlled by the interpretation of INA 202 (a)(5)(A):
(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE-

If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.
When the spare visas fall to EB3, they must still follow this law.

Unlike EB2, all of EB3, including ROW, is retrogressed.

EB3-ROW represent qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, since they have demand and have not reached the 7% limitation.

Visas cannot be issued without regard to the numerical limitation until there are no other qualified immigrants to whom the visas can be issued.

EB3-India may not receive spare visas until all demand from otherwise qualified immigrants has been satisfied.

Thus, EB3-I requires both EB2 and EB3-ROW to have no satisfiable demand before they can receive spare visas.

Often, people describe this as both EB2 and EB3-ROW being Current, but nowhere in the law is the word "Current" used, so it is not an absolute condition.

Similarly, if EB2-ROW were ever to become retrogressed, then any EB1 FD would first be used by EB2-ROW until that demand was satisfied. Only then would it be made available to EB2-C and EB2-I.

[frustratingGC]

@voicerj:
I am not sure on what basis you are able to tell there is 70% chance that EB2 Oct 08 is going to be current in 2012. I think there is 20-30% chance.

ramasubbareddy- not to discourage you. Even mine is Oct 2008 EB2 but i think its better not to be too optimistic sometimes.

-Mac

What is the chance on PD (Jul 2008) current in 2013?
I'm thinking of switching to full time, is it really worth to do now?
your response is highly appreciated.

[gc_on_demand]

What is the chance on PD (Jul 2008) current in 2013?
I'm thinking of switching to full time, is it really worth to do now?
your response is highly appreciated.


If we reach to May 2007 by aug - sep 2011 then DOS / USCIS may open gate for people upto Mid 2008. Not sure it can be upto July or June 2008. So if I were you I would hold for Sep 2011 bulletin which will be somewhere in mid aug.

If they don't advance date then it will not happen until next year Sep 2012. So you can have new company's labor etc ready by then.

[vijay226]

Its just an observation, checking the historical data from other sites, it appears for any new application its taking around 90 to 120 days to get an approval.

And usually cis allocates the visa at the last stage of approval, once all the checks are done.

Just wondering if PWMB will have any effect using the spilled over visas for the coming months(july, aug, sept). Thinking they will be pushed to next year quota (oct ). But good opportunity for them to get the interim benefits (AP, EADS).


Let me know your feedback's.

[MacX]

What is the chance on PD (Jul 2008) current in 2013?
I'm thinking of switching to full time, is it really worth to do now?
your response is highly appreciated.
I agree with GC on demand. If we see good movement in the next 2 months, i expect the dates to go to first Calendar quarter of 2008. Having that said, i agree with GC_on_Demand to wait for Sep bulletin and you can safely switch over.

-Mac

[h1_b_visa_holder]

@voicerj:
I am not sure on what basis you are able to tell there is 70% chance that EB2 Oct 08 is going to be current in 2012. I think there is 20-30% chance.

ramasubbareddy- not to discourage you. Even mine is Oct 2008 EB2 but i think its better not to be too optimistic sometimes.

-Mac

Sorry but the way things are going you are wrong, 70% chance you will get EAD, Not so sure about the GC, may be after a year you get EAD

[h1_b_visa_holder]

What is the chance on PD (Jul 2008) current in 2013?
I'm thinking of switching to full time, is it really worth to do now?
your response is highly appreciated.

Wait till Sep Bulleting and then go for the switch.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I believe that the answer to who gets the spillover in case there is spillover from EB2 to EB3 is very important for all. This has been really disputed however most people believe that it will be EB3 ROW because they have not reached 7%. I think if this is clarified by some competent attorney or Pappu if you can clarify for the benefit of everybody it will be a great help. The answer to this question once and for all can help to clear a lot of misgivings.

On another note both EB3 ROW and EB2 India will not become current anytime soon so the best bet is PD porting absolutely for anyone whose PD is beyond 2002. This year EB3-I will reach 15th May 2002 however it will take another 1.5 - 2 years for it to cross into 2003.

[vijay226]

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.
Thanks for Very Good Analysis. Just wondering if there will be any spillover from eb4 also. From the uscis inventory data from Jan average eb4 usuage is 300 to 400 per month.

[gc_vbin]

Thanks for your analysis Teddy.
So say we get enough SOFAD for the year to assign visa numbers to folks until May 2007 PD. If this happens do you not think that DOS will still need to move the dates to may be late 2007 to have a buffer? I was of the impression that they can move the dates only in the last quarter so I think they will have to move the dates in September to potentially avoid making dates current during fiscal 2012 and causing a July 2007 type scenario
Any thoughts?

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for Very Good Analysis. Just wondering if there will be any spillover from eb4 also. From the uscis inventory data from Jan average eb4 usuage is 300 to 400 per month.

That is an interesting piece of information, however historically EB4 has not given any SOFAD. Can you provide a link where you saw the trend about the EB4 usage?Thanks for your analysis Teddy.
So say we get enough SOFAD for the year to assign visa numbers to folks until May 2007 PD. If this happens do you not think that DOS will still need to move the dates to may be late 2007 to have a buffer? I was of the impression that they can move the dates only in the last quarter so I think they will have to move the dates in September to potentially avoid making dates current during fiscal 2012 and causing a July 2007 type scenario
Any thoughts?

This year looks like they will be able to safely manage within the pre-adjudicated cases. Iam not sure about the rule but if such a rule is there it will really be terrible for those who miss to file 485 this year as potentially they will be able to file 485 next year and then wait for GC for another year. I feel if this year was a precedent they should really evaluate the demand by say May 2012 bulletin latest and open the gate ideally much earlier. This is why it is definitely important to for everyone to know who gets the spillover by default for now the likely answer is EB3 ROW.

[rodnyb]

If they don't do the intake before Oct1 this year, per law, they cannot move PD beyond Aug.1st 2007 (as the demand is greater than supplier) in 2012 until Aug2012 when it is too late for CIS to even process those apps. The real tricky part is the PD in Sept 2011, are they going to set pass Aug1.2007? I am certain, demand before Aug.1st, 2007 is greater than the supply. If that is the case, and , who gets GC as CIS has not strictly follow FIFO. It could be another fiasco as everyone wants in, and call congressman/woman, etc.

CIS could cooperate by pausing processing new EB1/EB2ROW/OWMB in July-Sept by soley processing EB2I/C pre-adjudicated.. trying to use up all visa numbers.. that could save some visas and could possibly let everyone pre-adjudicated get GC. The chance is 50% as my calculation points to an even scenario for EB2I/C based on demand and supply


Thanks for your analysis Teddy.
So say we get enough SOFAD for the year to assign visa numbers to folks until May 2007 PD. If this happens do you not think that DOS will still need to move the dates to may be late 2007 to have a buffer? I was of the impression that they can move the dates only in the last quarter so I think they will have to move the dates in September to potentially avoid making dates current during fiscal 2012 and causing a July 2007 type scenario
Any thoughts?

[MacX]

That is an interesting piece of information, however historically EB4 has not given any SOFAD. Can you provide a link where you saw the trend about the EB4 usage?

This year looks like they will be able to safely manage within the pre-adjudicated cases. Iam not sure about the rule but if such a rule is there it will really be terrible for those who miss to file 485 this year as potentially they will be able to file 485 next year and then wait for GC for another year. I feel if this year was a precedent they should really evaluate the demand by say May 2012 bulletin latest and open the gate ideally much earlier. This is why it is definitely important to for everyone to know who gets the spillover by default for now the likely answer is EB3 ROW.
most of the people say the making cuurent during 2007 was a mistake by USCIS and they will not do it again. Byt. I really wish they make the dates current for just one month. So that most of us atleast file I485. Now all we can do it wait for next bulletin.

@Teddy - Your analysis always good. I was wondering where do you get all the data to analyze? Anyways, thanks for all the effort.

[EBX-Man]

If EB2 is current spillover will go to EB3 ROW or EB3 India ?

[dontcareaboutGC]

most of the people say the making cuurent during 2007 was a mistake by USCIS and they will not do it again. Byt. I really wish they make the dates current for just one month. So that most of us atleast file I485. Now all we can do it wait for next bulletin.

@Teddy - Your analysis always good. I was wondering where do you get all the data to analyze? Anyways, thanks for all the effort.
USCIS does not publish the dates- DOS does. The reason DOS did that was because of immense wastage of visa's by USCIS and incompetence on their part in providing the correct data.

Case be told when they made the dates "C" CIS went crazy as they knew they were no where near capable of handling the case load hence they forced DOS to retract the dates. But due to the legal ramifications they held the VB as it was published.

[dontcareaboutGC]

If EB2 is current spillover will go to EB3 ROW or EB3 India ?
Will go to EB3- India. Since the most retrogressed state is automatically given the extra visa's!

[vijay226]

That is an interesting piece of information, however historically EB4 has not given any SOFAD. Can you provide a link where you saw the trend about the EB4 usage?

This year looks like they will be able to safely manage within the pre-adjudicated cases. Iam not sure about the rule but if such a rule is there it will really be terrible for those who miss to file 485 this year as potentially they will be able to file 485 next year and then wait for GC for another year. I feel if this year was a precedent they should really evaluate the demand by say May 2012 bulletin latest and open the gate ideally much earlier. This is why it is definitely important to for everyone to know who gets the spillover by default for now the likely answer is EB3 ROW.
Here is the monthly inventory from uscis. The data is from Jan 5 2011:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf

If we take the max value for eb4 which is between 300 to 400, lets assume 400 * 12 = 4800

[TeddyKoochu]

Here is the monthly inventory from uscis. The data is from Jan 5 2011:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf

If we take the max value for eb4 which is between 300 to 400, lets assume 400 * 12 = 4800

For categories that are current the inventory does not give the true picture of the demand for them most of the cases may get approved even before being inventoried so we just get to see part demand only.

[snathan]

Here is the monthly inventory from uscis. The data is from Jan 5 2011:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf

If we take the max value for eb4 which is between 300 to 400, lets assume 400 * 12 = 4800

Means we are going to get around another 24K spill over from EB4 ?

[meraNumberKabAayega]

If they don't do the intake before Oct1 this year, per law, they cannot move PD beyond Aug.1st 2007 (as the demand is greater than supplier) in 2012 until Aug2012 when it is too late for CIS to even process those apps. The real tricky part is the PD in Sept 2011, are they going to set pass Aug1.2007? I am certain, demand before Aug.1st, 2007 is greater than the supply. If that is the case, and , who gets GC as CIS has not strictly follow FIFO. It could be another fiasco as everyone wants in, and call congressman/woman, etc.

CIS could cooperate by pausing processing new EB1/EB2ROW/OWMB in July-Sept by soley processing EB2I/C pre-adjudicated.. trying to use up all visa numbers.. that could save some visas and could possibly let everyone pre-adjudicated get GC. The chance is 50% as my calculation points to an even scenario for EB2I/C based on demand and supply

Thanks Teddy for very good analysis.

rodnyb - I don't think there is any law that forces DOS not to be able to move dates for a few months to a few quarters or to make it current any time of the year (i.e. start of FY or end of FY). Law is that only an individual whose priority date is current is eligible to get green card therefore DOS can move dates even in first quarter of FY 2012. The point is: will they move the date in anticipation of spillover or not? My guess is they will and they will because this year they started using spillover even before July and that indicates that DOS is getting smarter.:)

Because USCIS takes 4 to 6 months to approve I-485 application, best way to solve this mess is that DOS should always release 2 dates for each category in visa bulletin. One date as they do now "cutoff date" that means individuals who have priority date before this cutoff date are eligible to get GC. The other date should always be a few months (4 to 6 months in case of EB2 in current scenario) later than cutoff date and that date should mean that individuals with priority date before this new date should be allowed to file I485 application.

Other possible solution would have been that USCIS should allow an individual to file I-485 as soon as individual 's I-140 is approved. IV was running a polling for long time to find out if individuals will get benefit by such a move but poll did not get much support.

Teddy and other guru's can share their opinion on this.

[srini1976]

Means we are going to get around another 24K spill over from EB4 ?

EB-4 Certain Special Immigrants receive 7.1 percent of the yearly worldwide limit of employment-based immigrant visas

Here's the link.

Employment-Based Immigrant Visas (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html#fourth)

[manchala]

Some body throw some light on these words....

OWMB
SOFAD
PWMB


what do they mean exactly?

[TeddyKoochu]

Some body throw some light on these words....

OWMB
SOFAD
PWMB


what do they mean exactly?

I have updated the header of the thread with these acronyms these were all devised in the last thread.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).

[PrinceVA]

I have updated the header of the thread with these acronyms these were all devised in the last thread.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).

I am one of those PWMB and waiting for SOFAD or SO to FA or FD so that my PD can become CD(Current Date) and I get my GC. (Did I miss any word ? :cool: :D )

[rodnyb]

I don't mean "illegal" (cooperate means more subtly), just practical wise as CIS has limited manpower, and processing could have priority (I guess you are disagreeing on this). For example, they can shift priority to EB1 after Sept. 31th. I don't they can do everything at the same time with limited resources and time constraint. This is what I really meant.

That would be illegal.

What you are implying is a deliberate policy to deny visas to applicants who are Current, solely to boost SOFAD. It would also directly contravene the law governing spillover to Countries that have reached the 7% limit.

Whilst the thought might be attractive, I don't believe CIS would deliberately do that, not least because of the ramifications if Congress ever found out.

I do believe that processing does slow down due to the volume of approvals needed during Q4, but not as a deliberate act.

[rodnyb]

Thanks 0809.

One scenario I am guessing is, say August 2012 (with no buffer as DOS didn't move PD beyond 08/01/2007)
Demand only 3K left for Eb2I after some approvals in 2012 (and moving PD to say 08/01/2011).
Since supply could be 20K due to spillover etc.
According to law ( not to waist visa number ), DOS has to make PD for EB2I Current. Yes, there is a procedure where DOS can predicate or estimate future demand, but that is just an operational guideline as I see it, not law.

I think what rodnyb means is this.

The law says that DOS may not use more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first 3 quarters of a fiscal year.

Come Q1, we are back to the original allocation of 7%, or around 2,803 visas.

The Cut Off date should not be set at a date more than the number of available visas that can be issued.

Because of remaining pre-adjudicated cases and possibly PWMB cases that become ripe for adjudication, there will be many more cases that could be approved if the Cut Off Date was moved further forward.

If all USCIS approvable cases had been exhausted, that is a different matter, because no cases, other than CP would be ready to be approved if the Cut Off Dates was advanced, due to USCIS processing times for name check etc. and the Cut Off Date could be retrogressed before any were.

DOS have not always stuck to the 27% law in the past, so it may not stop them.

[pappu]

I have updated the header of the thread with these acronyms these were all devised in the last thread.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).

Technical Terms on US Immigration - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Technical_Terms_on_US_Immigration)

[gc_vbin]

I still think DOS needs to move the dates atleast to early 2008 this year for EB2-I/C in order not to waste visa numbers in fall 2012. Can there be lawsuits if they waste visa numbers when people like us are waiting for numbers? What I mean to ask is per law is it ok to waste visa numbers when thousands of people are waiting in the line?

[nishant2200]

I have a gut feeling that we shall be hitting mid 2007 very near to July 2007 by the September 2011 released visa bulletin. And then in the first quarter, October 2011 ->, they will advance by few months, how many, that would depend on their calculation of estimating, how many applicants will apply, which maybe based on variety of factors, like I-140s approved etc.

USCIS is really moving on applications very fast, the approvals are coming very fast without any red tape or unnessary delays, they do want to use the numbers without any waste.

I also have a gut feeling that the reason for doing the EB-1 12k earlier, was that they do think, this is in addition to usual spillover they get from EB1.

As I said, it's my gut feeling, not because I will benefit from this, but just an instinct. Even earlier, when the 12k EB1, they only moved by 2 months earlier, I knew they would move till october in next month ( I had seen the demand data pdf, and it indicated they should have gone till october to consume 12k), since they had two months before Q4, they would want to move cautiously and not just release all in one month.

[gcseeker101]

Hi Teddy,

Thanks for the analysis.
You had mentioned we got 26K SOFAD in 2010. Out of 26K, 10K from FB-Spillover and 6K from Regular EB2 Quota. So we got only 10K from all others. How come we are expecting 16K from EB5 and EB2Row this year versus 10K last year? What changed this year?

Thanks.




Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.

[greenisgood]

Break down of 26K is as below...
10K - FB-Spillover
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
2K - EB1

As per Teddy.. this year may get ~34K

0 - FB-Spillover
20K - EB1
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW



Hi Teddy,

Thanks for the analysis.
You had mentioned we got 26K SOFAD in 2010. Out of 26K, 10K from FB-Spillover and 6K from Regular EB2 Quota. So we got only 10K from all others. How come we are expecting 16K from EB5 and EB2Row this year versus 10K last year? What changed this year?

Thanks.

[voicerj]

Now, I know all of us have hopes that dates will move to July-August 2007 in this fiscal year. And i too hope that this happens.

But the main point which we are all considering is USCIS will not waste any numbers. but incase they don't do that or they are not able to consume the numbers quick enough, because If they move the majority of the dates in last two months then new cases of PWMB will not be processed and some visa numbers may be left unused.

Also i have heard some people here saying that USCIS attaches the visa number to the application immediately in the last two months but some other says they do that at the end of processing I-485. What is the reality does anybody know when exactly they attach the number to your application?

Hope USCIS doesn't waste any numbers and move the dates as much as possible.

[gc_vbin]

I agree with you and hope CIS doesn't waste any number. But does anyone here know if they end up wasting numbers is it possible to sue them? Per law is it ok to waste visa numbers when people have been waiting for years? I know they are not supposed to be wasting but what does the law say? Does bringing in lawsuits hold any water?

Now, I know all of us have hopes that dates will move to July-August 2007 in this fiscal year. And i too hope that this happens.

But the main point which we are all considering is USCIS will not waste any numbers. but incase they don't do that or they are not able to consume the numbers quick enough, because If they move the majority of the dates in last two months then new cases of PWMB will not be processed and some visa numbers may be left unused.

Also i have heard some people here saying that USCIS attaches the visa number to the application immediately in the last two months but some other says they do that at the end of processing I-485. What is the reality does anybody know when exactly they attach the number to your application?

Hope USCIS doesn't waste any numbers and move the dates as much as possible.

[snathan]

I agree with you and hope CIS doesn't waste any number. But does anyone here know if they end up wasting numbers is it possible to sue them? Per law is it ok to waste visa numbers when people have been waiting for years? I know they are not supposed to be wasting but what does the law say? Does bringing in lawsuits hold any water?

No, the congress has authorised up to 140K visa numbers per year and not exactly 140K. So the USCIS is within the perimeter of the law if they are wasting any visa numbers and hence we can not sue them

[skpanda]

How will it be bonus for EB3?
If they move the EB2 dates to Mid 2008 say in a controlled manner, and they do not get enough applications, then they will have to move EB2 dates further untill they make it current before thinking about EB3 for spillover.

For any SOFAD to drill down to EB3 EB2 across the board has to be current. Otherwise they risk las suits from people like you and me who are waiting.

Good Luck!
S

rodnyb,

TBH any view expressed might happen, because it is entirely uncharted territory!

I think that DOS will advance the dates to about mid 2008 not later than the May 2010 VB, although they might not do it all at once.

If they don't, then not enough applicants cases will be ready for approval during July - September 2012.

It's an equal chance whether they begin that process in September 2011.

Although it is possible, the one thing I don't think they will do is make it EB2 Current. That invites too many applications and DOS have not done that previously when they wanted more FB cases, so I think it will be push it forward in a controlled manner followed by retrogressing it back.

If they happen to get less numbers than they expect, it will be a bonus for EB3. I don't see DOS getting it that wrong.

But, my guess is only as good as anybody else's!

[gcseeker101]

Hi Greenisgood,

But Teddy and others say for 2010 - SOFAD is ~20k and ~6K is EB2 (I + C) quota = 26k
As per your calculation, SOFAD is ~ 26k and ~6K is EB2 (I + C) quota = 32k

I think there is some kind of disconnect here!



Break down of 26K is as below...
10K - FB-Spillover
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
2K - EB1

As per Teddy.. this year may get ~34K

0 - FB-Spillover
20K - EB1
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW

[immigrant2007]

How will it be bonus for EB3?
If they move the EB2 dates to Mid 2008 say in a controlled manner, and they do not get enough applications, then they will have to move EB2 dates further untill they make it current before thinking about EB3 for spillover.

For any SOFAD to drill down to EB3 EB2 across the board has to be current. Otherwise they risk las suits from people like you and me who are waiting.

Good Luck!
S

In my personal opiniion moving EB2 beyond 2007 for EB2- India is not going to help EB2-I use those numbers except that some of my friends will be able to apply for 485s and EADs.
FOr POst July 2007 cases (new 485 filers, USCIS will have to process 485 applications in record time of 3 months, especially when all the ifnormation will be new). There are chances if spillover is more than 40000, it will go to EB3 this year.
BTW does anyone have numbers of EB2s and EB3s used for this year so far (not just india but worldwide).

[immigrant2007]

I have updated the header of the thread with these acronyms these were all devised in the last thread.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).

Thanks Pal...more than that I hope all your efforts (and the ones who have been consistently doing analysis are rewarded soon with GCs ).....

[bratramm]

I would think that EB1 was going to give only 12K for the entire year. 28K EB1 seems a decent number of EB1 filers for the FY. Just my gut feeling......
The reason why they started the quaterly spillover earlier was probably based on last year's circumstance where they waited till the last quarter to do SOFAD-the result of which they had a lot of backlog to deal with in terms of processing....so this year, instead of doing just one quarter spillover, they are doing the spillover in two quarters.....

we all complained about the DOS/CIS not doing quarterly spillover-maybe they heard and they are slowly moving to quarterly spillover instead of waiting till the last quarter....


Has anyone done an analysis of the dates if this were true, ie only 12K from EB1....?

......I also have a gut feeling that the reason for doing the EB-1 12k earlier, was that they do think, this is in addition to usual spillover they get from EB1.

As I said, it's my gut feeling, not because I will benefit from this, but just an instinct. Even earlier, when the 12k EB1, they only moved by 2 months earlier, I knew they would move till october in next month ( I had seen the demand data pdf, and it indicated they should have gone till october to consume 12k), since they had two months before Q4, they would want to move cautiously and not just release all in one month.

[immigrant2007]

Break down of 26K is as below...
10K - FB-Spillover
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
2K - EB1

As per Teddy.. this year may get ~34K

0 - FB-Spillover
20K - EB1
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW

Hi

Where can we check the number of GCs already issued this year for all categories irrespective of countries

[fall1998]

Hi

Where can we check the number of GCs already issued this year for all categories irrespective of countries

I don't think you can. This information is released by USCIS yearly only after the year is over.

[meraNumberKabAayega]

Hi

Where can we check the number of GCs already issued this year for all categories irrespective of countries

No where. If we know that it would have been very easy to make predictions. In my opinion, DOS should also release this data (consumption data for current FY) with the demand data.

[EBX-Man]

How will it be bonus for EB3?
If they move the EB2 dates to Mid 2008 say in a controlled manner, and they do not get enough applications, then they will have to move EB2 dates further untill they make it current before thinking about EB3 for spillover.

For any SOFAD to drill down to EB3 EB2 across the board has to be current. Otherwise they risk las suits from people like you and me who are waiting.

Good Luck!
S
They could give the visa to EB3 and not tell anyone. How can we sue CIS when we don't know what they have done?

[waitingnwaiting]

No where. If we know that it would have been very easy to make predictions. In my opinion, DOS should also release this data (consumption data for current FY) with the demand data.

Adding more features will increase the fees we pay for applications. Fees already increased after we asked for more data and information. USCIS runs on application fees and so if we ask for more , they have to get funds from somewhere

[rodnyb]

talking about fees - since new 485 filing don't need to have AP/EAD paid for renewal, CIS is losing big. For current pre-adjudicated cases, they get constant 2 year EAD/AP renewal fees. I am sure they haven't calculated those effects yet once all pre 07/2007 PD GC are approved.

DOS has to follow INA which is very rigid. Precedence has shown that they are very liberal in interpreting those. So all our guess could be all wrong.

Adding to the mess, CIS is not doing FIFO and has a big black box in processing/approving.

I can only say for Sept2011 Eb2I PD
Feb 2007 is certainty
March-October 2007 all possible
and Nov2007-June2008 is low probability

How they move July August PD is interesting as well.





Adding more features will increase the fees we pay for applications. Fees already increased after we asked for more data and information. USCIS runs on application fees and so if we ask for more , they have to get funds from somewhere

[immigrant2007]

I don't think you can. This information is released by USCIS yearly only after the year is over.

Cant we keep on filing FOIA for the same?
Where can I get information on the demand data from Oct-2010 onwards?

[anura]

Cant we keep on filing FOIA for the same?
Where can I get information on the demand data from Oct-2010 onwards?

EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/EB2-I_USCIS_Data)

[frustratingGC]

WASHINTON: An American employee of Infosys has filed a case against the company accusing it of visa and tax fraud.


Court case against Infosys accuses it of visa and tax fraud - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/court-case-against-infosys-accuses-it-of-visa-and-tax-fraud/articleshow/7580456.cms)

Infosys booked for visa and tax fraud - Bangalore - DNA (http://www.dnaindia.com/bangalore/report_infosys-booked-for-visa-and-tax-fraud_1513178)


Theres no guarentee that these companies don't do fraud in GC process. Especially filing more than 1000 GC applications(Labour filings) in EB2 and EB3 (Don't know homany filed in EB1) by Cognizant in 2010 itself, even when the US economy didn't recover completely?

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx)

.

Almost everyone working in cognizant are eligible for EB3 and many are eligible for EB2, No complaints when applied in EB2/EB3.

Only concern is EB1, we don't know how many applied in EB1.

[fall1998]

Cant we keep on filing FOIA for the same?
Where can I get information on the demand data from Oct-2010 onwards?

Well, FOIA may not help, since USCIS does release visa usage data yearly (FOIA helps when information is not made available). Every year, once the financial year for USCIS ends, they do release this data.

[nishant2200]

I agree with your POV also, didn't think of this. Maybe true. Although I think they still would keep some EB1 left with them for people who apply in last Quarter, so maybe they would give if anything left in that in last bulletin of this year.

I agree with the need for analysis for EB1, if only 12k around are there, or more shall be given. We can wait and watch, or someone knowledgeable like Teddy may have some idea based on data.

I would think that EB1 was going to give only 12K for the entire year. 28K EB1 seems a decent number of EB1 filers for the FY. Just my gut feeling......
The reason why they started the quaterly spillover earlier was probably based on last year's circumstance where they waited till the last quarter to do SOFAD-the result of which they had a lot of backlog to deal with in terms of processing....so this year, instead of doing just one quarter spillover, they are doing the spillover in two quarters.....

we all complained about the DOS/CIS not doing quarterly spillover-maybe they heard and they are slowly moving to quarterly spillover instead of waiting till the last quarter....


Has anyone done an analysis of the dates if this were true, ie only 12K from EB1....?

[pardesibabu]

Hi,

My priority date is April 2010 (EB2 - India). Is there a chance of PD becoming current next year in 2012?

[nishant2200]

I don't have any technical numbers to back this up, but I can say that not next year.

Also I think that as economy improves, there will be less spillover from other categories, as well as there will be more porting, which will eat away more and more into the spillover. already the small 3k around we get is grabbed by porting. And I don't blame anyone here, I am just presenting my thought. Everyone got to do what they got to do.

Hence I think really the onus will be on immigration reform with regards to EB, legislative action for visa recapture in short term, and reform for long term, this is the only solution.

Please do not take my reply as the final say though, there are far greater experts here, who know much more. I am just trying to be not having false hopes.
Hi,

My priority date is April 2010 (EB2 - India). Is there a chance of PD becoming current next year in 2012?

[nishant2200]

I don't have any technical numbers to back this up, but I can say that not next year.

Also I think that as economy improves, there will be less spillover from other categories, as well as there will be more porting, which will eat away more and more into the spillover. already the small 3k around we get is grabbed by porting. And I don't blame anyone here, I am just presenting my thought. Everyone got to do what they got to do.

Hence I think really the onus will be on immigration reform with regards to EB, legislative action for visa recapture in short term, and reform for long term, this is the only solution.

Please do not take my reply as the final say though, there are far greater experts here, who know much more. I am just trying to be not having false hopes.
Hi,

My priority date is April 2010 (EB2 - India). Is there a chance of PD becoming current next year in 2012?

[belmontboy]

Hi,

My priority date is April 2010 (EB2 - India). Is there a chance of PD becoming current next year in 2012?

No.
may be by 2014

[ctm1234]

My PD is EB 2 Apr 2009 , is there any chance in 2011/2012.?

[rameshraju11]

My PD is EB 2 Apr 2009 , is there any chance in 2011/2012.?

Thumb rule is the priority date + 4 yrs to become current.

[pd_dec01]

After the dates become current, how many days does it take on an Avg. to get the GC? I have my 485 pending for a long time now (since 2007-8).

[pappu]

If you see any fraud in the system here is how you can report it:

1) Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.
2) Contact the USCIS (uscis.gov) at (800) 375-5283. Request live assistance, which is available during the week and file your complaint. Although USCIS and ICE are included within the Department of Homeland Security, you should submit separate fraudulent reports to expedite the case review.
3) Contact USCIS Fraud Unit which is a part of the Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate with all the details.
Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
Mail Stop 2280 Washington,
D.C. 20529-2280
FDNS@dhs.gov

[voicerj]

Thumb rule is the priority date + 4 yrs to become current.

Are you sure ?

Are you getting current this fiscal ?

[smuggymba]

If you see any fraud in the system here is how you can report it:

1) Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.
2) Contact the USCIS (uscis.gov) at (800) 375-5283. Request live assistance, which is available during the week and file your complaint. Although USCIS and ICE are included within the Department of Homeland Security, you should submit separate fraudulent reports to expedite the case review.
3) Contact USCIS Fraud Unit which is a part of the Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate with all the details.
Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
Mail Stop 2280 Washington,
D.C. 20529-2280
FDNS@dhs.gov

In EB1 terms - What CTS and Infosys do is not really a fraud - it's misusing the system. A PM with 5 direct reports is a Multi national manager because Infosys is an MNC and having stayed 1 yr aborad (ie India or any other country) - they qualify and apply in EB1 via L1A. Looks like they are just misusing a loophole in the system and that why I send hard copy letters to various ppl in the govt. every other week.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for the information and contacts etc Pappu and smuggy. I am going to inform government too of this mis-use.

In EB1 terms - What CTS and Infosys do is not really a fraud - it's misusing the system. A PM with 5 direct reports is a Multi national manager because Infosys is an MNC and having stayed 1 yr aborad (ie India or any other country) - they qualify and apply in EB1 via L1A. Looks like they are just misusing a loophole in the system and that why I send hard copy letters to various ppl in the govt. every other week.

[PrinceVA]

Misuse is not only for GC, but also for job opportunities. They have abused H1B upto the extent that we all are suffering now with lots of queries for H1 Extension or transfer. If someone's H1 doesnt get extended in TCS/INFY/CTS, they go back and come with B1 or L1. B1 stands for Business Visa. What business they do by coming on client site and doing coding ?
I see the L1 and B1 in the same position in next 3-4 yrs. They are abusing all possible means of Visa. Try H1B, not H1b.. try B1.. No B1 try L1.

I am really not against these companies and people working within, they are all my brothers but ... their abuse has made all of us pay the price.

In EB1 terms - What CTS and Infosys do is not really a fraud - it's misusing the system. A PM with 5 direct reports is a Multi national manager because Infosys is an MNC and having stayed 1 yr aborad (ie India or any other country) - they qualify and apply in EB1 via L1A. Looks like they are just misusing a loophole in the system and that why I send hard copy letters to various ppl in the govt. every other week.

[sandy_anand]

Are you sure ?

Are you getting current this fiscal ?

He said rule of thumb. It's not an exact science.

[TeddyKoochu]

Last year EB1C accounted for 50% i.e. ~ 21.5K of the EB1 consumption, India consumed ~ 6K EB1 visas so ~ 3K EB1C cases. This still leaves ~ 15 - 17K consumed by oher countries and predominantly non IT professions. So EB1C misuse is definitely prevalent at all places not just limited to Indian IT. The mis-use definitely has to be diminished or eliminated, I believe we all agree that the deserving and the genuine ones in that category get their GC's.

[MacX]

In EB1 terms - What CTS and Infosys do is not really a fraud - it's misusing the system. A PM with 5 direct reports is a Multi national manager because Infosys is an MNC and having stayed 1 yr aborad (ie India or any other country) - they qualify and apply in EB1 via L1A. Looks like they are just misusing a loophole in the system and that why I send hard copy letters to various ppl in the govt. every other week.
Thanks Suggy,

Every one of us has to do this. We need to send the hard copy letter too.

-Mac

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

That sounds a bit like 1 + 1 = 3

"Forum wisdom" says that the Indian IT outsourcers abuse EB1C. As you correctly point out, that only accounts for around 3k cases.

There does not seem to be the same accusations levelled against non-I, non-IT cases, even in fora.

That is not to say there may not be similar abuse, but there is not even anecdotal evidence that it occurs.

It could be limited only to a few large companies, who have apparently shown they are quite willing to abuse B1, L1 as well.

Actually it was in 2010 that the crackdown started on Indian IT companies and as you can see from these figures from the DOS Annual report this part of the abuse has greatly come down. These figures that I quote are from version 1 of the predictions and calculations thread. Most of the EB1 usage really comes from ROW countries and looks like from professions besides IT anyone controlling 4-5 people can file for EB1. I remember one example given by one of my colleague who had himself filed in EB3 and got his GC recently just this month, he had helped someone who was an accountant with a small company do his labor/140 filing in early 2007, guess when he asked his friend the dates are current in Jul 2007 he said that I got my GC already he did not have to file for labor itself. This is just one example.

[vdlrao]

In EB1 terms - What CTS and Infosys do is not really a fraud - it's misusing the system. A PM with 5 direct reports is a Multi national manager because Infosys is an MNC and having stayed 1 yr aborad (ie India or any other country) - they qualify and apply in EB1 via L1A. Looks like they are just misusing a loophole in the system and that why I send hard copy letters to various ppl in the govt. every other week.

My friend smuggymba,

Please see the L1A rules, it clearly says:

a majority of his or her duties relate to operational or policy management, not to the supervision of lower level employees.

You know how many managers in companies like Wipro, TCS, CTS will have the duties relate to operational or policy management!!. Not more than 5%. But they sponser L1As for allmost all of their managers. More than 80% L1As being misused/fraud, as most of the L1A managers are just doing a mundane job of supervising/harassing the lower level employees to work for more than 10 hours a day. The more they(these mundane managers) get them(employees) work the more promotion they will get. These so called mangers come here to USA on L1A(They are not at all qualified for L1A) and get more jobs for their company. These MNCs purposefully misleading the USCIS on L1A visas for their so called supervising managers..


http://www..com/visas/l1/


L1 visa lawyer (http://www.myvisa.com/Visasage/L1jobs.htm)



You know one of the top 5 indian MNCs used to quote $30/Hour for a resource. And the offer is take one and get the other free. So for $30/hr they are giving 2 resources. Do you think any other company in USA can beat them. So how do they spend money on visas other than finding some loop holes in the immigration system and sending their employees on Business Visas and get them work at the client location. Otherwise send the resources on L1 and get them work for a lower wages as there are no wage restrictions on L1. Or else threaten/bond(for 5k USD or 10k USD) the employees not to leave them once they are onsite.


Guys L1s are being misused by the big MNCs in a big way. There is no limit on L1s like H1Bs .

.

[rameshraju11]

Are you sure ?

Are you getting current this fiscal ?

for my case , Not this year. my PD may be current after July 2012.

optimistically PD+ 5 years

[TeddyKoochu]

My friend smuggymba,

Please see the L1A rules, it clearly says:

a majority of his or her duties relate to operational or policy management, not to the supervision of lower level employees.

You know how many managers in companies like Wipro, TCS, CTS will have the duties relate to operational or policy management!!. Not more than 5%. But they sponser L1As for allmost all of their managers. More than 80% L1As being misused/fraud, as most of the L1A managers are just doing a mundane job of supervising/harassing the lower level employees to work for more than 10 hours a day. The more they(these mundane managers) get them(employees) work the more promotion they will get. These so called mangers come here to USA on L1A(They are not at all qualified for L1A) and get more jobs for their company. These MNCs purposefully misleading the USCIS on L1A visas for their so called supervising managers..


http://www..com/visas/l1/


L1 visa lawyer (http://www.myvisa.com/Visasage/L1jobs.htm)



You know one of the top 5 indian MNCs used to quote $30/Hour for a resource. And the offer is take one and get the other free. So for $30/hr they are giving 2 resources. Do you think any other company in USA can beat them. So how do they spend money on visas other than finding some loop holes in the immigration system and sending their employees on Business Visas and get them work at the client location. Otherwise send the resources on L1 and get them work for a lower wages as there are no wage restrictions on L1. Or else threaten/bond(for 5k USD or 10k USD) the employees not to leave them once they are onsite.


Guys L1s are being misused by the big MNCs in a big way. There is no limit on L1s like H1Bs .

.

I agree with all what you say it also violates the basic premise of L1 that they should not be working at the client site.

[imdeng]

My best and most optimistic guess would be 485 filing in summer of 2014, GC in 2015. You are just after the massive surge in EB2I filing in late 2009, early 2010. That will take some time to clear.

Hi,

My priority date is April 2010 (EB2 - India). Is there a chance of PD becoming current next year in 2012?

[imdeng]

You might have a shot at filing 485 in summer of 2012 with GC in 2013. I am of course being a little optimistic because my PD is Aug 2009. A little bit of hope for you and me is that EB2I filing volume is lower in 2008 compared to 2007 and still lower in 2009 compared to 2008. If the economy remains in a funk for one more year, then a good spillover might bring you (and hopefully me) within the pipeline creation process in summer next year.

My PD is EB 2 Apr 2009 , is there any chance in 2011/2012.?

[longwait4gc]

My best and most optimistic guess would be 485 filing in summer of 2014, GC in 2015. You are just after the massive surge in EB2I filing in late 2009, early 2010. That will take some time to clear.

Where can I find statistics about labor filings?

[smuggymba]

My friend smuggymba,

Please see the L1A rules, it clearly says:

a majority of his or her duties relate to operational or policy management, not to the supervision of lower level employees.

You know how many managers in companies like Wipro, TCS, CTS will have the duties relate to operational or policy management!!. Not more than 5%. But they sponser L1As for allmost all of their managers. More than 80% L1As being misused/fraud, as most of the L1A managers are just doing a mundane job of supervising/harassing the lower level employees to work for more than 10 hours a day. The more they(these mundane managers) get them(employees) work the more promotion they will get. These so called mangers come here to USA on L1A(They are not at all qualified for L1A) and get more jobs for their company. These MNCs purposefully misleading the USCIS on L1A visas for their so called supervising managers..


http://www..com/visas/l1/


L1 visa lawyer (http://www.myvisa.com/Visasage/L1jobs.htm)



You know one of the top 5 indian MNCs used to quote $30/Hour for a resource. And the offer is take one and get the other free. So for $30/hr they are giving 2 resources. Do you think any other company in USA can beat them. So how do they spend money on visas other than finding some loop holes in the immigration system and sending their employees on Business Visas and get them work at the client location. Otherwise send the resources on L1 and get them work for a lower wages as there are no wage restrictions on L1. Or else threaten/bond(for 5k USD or 10k USD) the employees not to leave them once they are onsite.


Guys L1s are being misused by the big MNCs in a big way. There is no limit on L1s like H1Bs .

.


This SH** it getting serious. Today's lunch with an Infy (subcontracting for one project in my comp) guy left me angry and pissed off.

The guy with 10 yrs exp and a PM in Infy was **talking** about his eligibility for EB1 and that he will file soon. Once again, he is a PM with 4-5 direct reports, makes probably 75K, has worked in Australia, Europe, India and US and claims himself to be a Multi-National "GLOBAL" PM.

I couldn't say anything as it was not the right place....looks like we really NEED TO SEND HARD COPY LETTERS ABOUT EB1 FRAUD. THIS IS SERIOUS.

[zilmax007]

This SH** it getting serious. Today's lunch with an Infy (subcontracting for one project in my comp) guy left me angry and pissed off.

The guy with 10 yrs exp and a PM in Infy was **talking** about his eligibility for EB1 and that he will file soon. Once again, he is a PM with 4-5 direct reports, makes probably 75K, has worked in Australia, Europe, India and US and claims himself to be a Multi-National "GLOBAL" PM.

I couldn't say anything as it was not the right place....looks like we really NEED TO SEND HARD COPY LETTERS ABOUT EB1 FRAUD. THIS IS SERIOUS.
smuggymba: who cares if he gets angry & pissed off.
Let him stand in EB2/3 line and get pissed off.
These big companies should be severly punished for EB1 abusing.
Could you PM me the template to send the hard copy to the senators?

[smuggymba]

smuggymba: who cares if he gets angry & pissed off.
Let him stand in EB2/3 line and get pissed off.
These big companies should be severly punished for EB1 abusing.
Could you PM me the template to send the hard copy to the senators?

PM me your email ID. I use slightly modified letters from "goodintentions". You can search the forum on his comments about EB1 fraud.

I actually know by name, location a guy who already has his GC via EB1 from Infosys. Same PM profile - 5 reports, 75K salary, couple of projects in other countries, 10 yrs exp. Can I report him for fraud - I really need clarification on this managerial/executive thing - i.e. whether this is actually Fraud or just a loophole.

[krishnakk]

I can't say it is fraud, it is a just loophole. Yes, L1A manager handling 4 persons (limit is 4) can be eligible for EB1. Come on more then 50% of us used similar H1B loophole (consulting companies) to enter into US. Instead of fighting against the persons/companies we need to fight with USCIS to change their rules.

[phigi]

================================================== =======
To qualify for the GC via the EB1C category of manager/executive one of the requirements is to have worked for a qualifying organization abroad for 12 months in the three years preceding the initial entry to the USA. The individual only qualifies though when the sponsorship in the USA is by and to work for the company related to the qualifying business abroad. One cannot simply qualify for this type of GC by working for any company abroad that has US operations and then working in the US for any company that has foreign operations.
================================================== ========
from the posts...

[krishnakk]

You are right, but the exact same rules applies to L1A visa, means a person who granted an L1A is eligible for EB1. In order to stop the EB1 (L1A), USCIS need to disqualified L1A petitions. BTW i am not on EB1 and also i am not objecting this EB1 for legitimate candidates. USCIS has loopholes on H1B, L1, B1 & GC (whole immigration process) and people are using those loopholes. (Similar to labor substitution, i know many people who purchased the labor for 5K and got their GC in less then a year).

[ryan]

My friend smuggymba,

Please see the L1A rules, it clearly says:

a majority of his or her duties relate to operational or policy management, not to the supervision of lower level employees.

You know how many managers in companies like Wipro, TCS, CTS will have the duties relate to operational or policy management!!. Not more than 5%. But they sponser L1As for allmost all of their managers. More than 80% L1As being misused/fraud, as most of the L1A managers are just doing a mundane job of supervising/harassing the lower level employees to work for more than 10 hours a day. The more they(these mundane managers) get them(employees) work the more promotion they will get. These so called mangers come here to USA on L1A(They are not at all qualified for L1A) and get more jobs for their company. These MNCs purposefully misleading the USCIS on L1A visas for their so called supervising managers..


http://www..com/visas/l1/


L1 visa lawyer (http://www.myvisa.com/Visasage/L1jobs.htm)



You know one of the top 5 indian MNCs used to quote $30/Hour for a resource. And the offer is take one and get the other free. So for $30/hr they are giving 2 resources. Do you think any other company in USA can beat them. So how do they spend money on visas other than finding some loop holes in the immigration system and sending their employees on Business Visas and get them work at the client location. Otherwise send the resources on L1 and get them work for a lower wages as there are no wage restrictions on L1. Or else threaten/bond(for 5k USD or 10k USD) the employees not to leave them once they are onsite.


Guys L1s are being misused by the big MNCs in a big way. There is no limit on L1s like H1Bs .

.

If it's all true. It's shocking and disgusting.

[GCHope2011]

This SH** it getting serious. Today's lunch with an Infy (subcontracting for one project in my comp) guy left me angry and pissed off.

The guy with 10 yrs exp and a PM in Infy was **talking** about his eligibility for EB1 and that he will file soon. Once again, he is a PM with 4-5 direct reports, makes probably 75K, has worked in Australia, Europe, India and US and claims himself to be a Multi-National "GLOBAL" PM.

I couldn't say anything as it was not the right place....looks like we really NEED TO SEND HARD COPY LETTERS ABOUT EB1 FRAUD. THIS IS SERIOUS.
It might "seem" like fraud to us, looking at it through our own filters, but the more likely scenario is that these companies are going strictly by the law.

All these companies that have been talked about in this thread about EB1 "misuse" have multi-billion dollar businesses, which they are not going to put at risk by running foul of laws - that too to give Green Cards to a few hundred employees (yes - each of these companies are applying probably for a few hundred of their employees in EB1 - not more) out of their employee base of more than 100K employees.

There might be a number of small time companies who might be abusing this EB1 loophole from all across the globe. Since we are more familiar with these few big companies, we have more opinion on them, but I think an analysis of the data will reveal much more of this coming from much smaller mom and pop shops across all industries across all countries.

[vbkris77]

E-Mail from NVCAttorney to pay $794 (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/e-mail-from-nvcattorney-to-pay-794-a-14323/)

If this is true that a guy with Apr 2008 got such a letter from NVC,, its good sign..

[vdlrao]

It might "seem" like fraud to us, looking at it through our own filters, but the more likely scenario is that these companies are going strictly by the law.

All these companies that have been talked about in this thread about EB1 "misuse" have multi-billion dollar businesses, which they are not going to put at risk by running foul of laws - that too to give Green Cards to a few hundred employees (yes - each of these companies are applying probably for a few hundred of their employees in EB1 - not more) out of their employee base of more than 100K employees.

There might be a number of small time companies who might be abusing this EB1 loophole from all across the globe. Since we are more familiar with these few big companies, we have more opinion on them, but I think an analysis of the data will reveal much more of this coming from much smaller mom and pop shops across all industries across all countries.

These multi billion companies are nothing but big body shoppers. These are the ones who don't care to send their employees on a tourist/business visa(which is the easiest and cheapest way of sending) and get them work on the client site. These companies rather to send their employees on L1 than H1 because theres no wage restrictions on L1. By that way they could escape from the USCIS/DOL monitor.These so called big MNCs are nothing more than big boddy shoppers.

[bratramm]

2008 is too far ahead for even the NVS to acknowledge the dates might get current....given just the raw data that all of us have been crunching, even getting close to 2008 is hard-crossing mid 2007 seems to be the optimistic consensus.....and crossing that july 2007 milestone will take longer than hoped for.....if the trends continue into FY 2012, then 2008 seems possible in July-Sept 2012-not till then.
Not to burst anybody's bubble, but we should err on the side of caution and not repeat our overly optimistic estimates from last year.....my own PD is not till 2008, so, while this is great if it is true, on the face of all the information we have, its really unlikely.....I too have applied under CP and have yet to receive any notification from the NVS...i also have a couple of friends who are in teh same timeline who have not received anything yet....

E-Mail from NVCAttorney to pay $794 (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/e-mail-from-nvcattorney-to-pay-794-a-14323/)

If this is true that a guy with Apr 2008 got such a letter from NVC,, its good sign..

[gc_peshwa]

E-Mail from NVCAttorney to pay $794 (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/e-mail-from-nvcattorney-to-pay-794-a-14323/)

If this is true that a guy with Apr 2008 got such a letter from NVC,, its good sign..
Hi VBKris
The link you mentioned is a guy from PD Sept 2008 EB2 COnsular Processing. Its also not clear whether the applicant is EB2 India/China.
Did you post the correct link?:confused:

[MacX]

This SH** it getting serious. Today's lunch with an Infy (subcontracting for one project in my comp) guy left me angry and pissed off.

The guy with 10 yrs exp and a PM in Infy was **talking** about his eligibility for EB1 and that he will file soon. Once again, he is a PM with 4-5 direct reports, makes probably 75K, has worked in Australia, Europe, India and US and claims himself to be a Multi-National "GLOBAL" PM.

I couldn't say anything as it was not the right place....looks like we really NEED TO SEND HARD COPY LETTERS ABOUT EB1 FRAUD. THIS IS SERIOUS.
Smuggymba,

Can you please send me the template if you have so that i can send the hard copy too.

Thanks in advance
-Mac

[gc_peshwa]

Smuggymba,

Can you please send me the template if you have so that i can send the hard copy too.

Thanks in advance
-Mac

With all due respect to some members desire to prosecute EB fraud, can I request you Teddy/Pappu to delete irrelevant items from this thread to keep it clean?
Members could communicate via PM about their campaigns :cool:

[gc_peshwa]

Smuggymba,

Can you please send me the template if you have so that i can send the hard copy too.

Thanks in advance
-Mac

On another note, we'd be extremely delighted MacX if we see similar enthusiasm for so many IV action items. If you are genuinely interested in benefitting the EB community please contact ashwin_27/Pappu for volunteering.:)

[sandy_anand]

Hi VBKris
The link you mentioned is a guy from PD Sept 2008 EB2 COnsular Processing. Its also not clear whether the applicant is EB2 India/China.
Did you post the correct link?:confused:

No. If you read his posting, the guy says his 140 was approved with CP option in Sept 2008. He also says his PD was Apr 15, 2008.

[gc_peshwa]

No. If you read his posting, the guy says his 140 was approved with CP option in Sept 2008. He also says his PD was Apr 15, 2008.

Thanks Sandy for correcting me! Sorry VBKris for not reading the PD of April 2008. If thats really true DOS seems almost certain to follow the "move dates forward to build pipeline" and "retrogress if necessary" doctrine that they followed with FB category as also with EB category in FY-2008/09.

[doubleyou]

The Processing date for TSC for I 485 is now showing September 2010 wheras it was 4 months in the last month, this may be due to the advancement of the cutoff date. Looks like they have a lot of backlog to clear, so the next month the movement may be slower.

[sandy_anand]

Thanks Sandy for correcting me! Sorry VBKris for not reading the PD of April 2008. If thats really true DOS seems almost certain to follow the "move dates forward to build pipeline" and "retrogress if necessary" doctrine that they followed with FB category as also with EB category in FY-2008/09.

You're welcome. :) Let's hope for some good movement by Sept VB.

[pbuckeye]

Hi VBKris
The link you mentioned is a guy from PD Sept 2008 EB2 COnsular Processing. Its also not clear whether the applicant is EB2 India/China.
Did you post the correct link?:confused:

From that post :
"priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2)" [edit] - this has already been addressed

Looks like he is from India (I did a quick search on his earlier posts :D -- developed some snooping around skills thanks to facebook)

[gc_on_demand]

From that post :
"priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2)" [edit] - this has already been addressed

Looks like he is from India (I did a quick search on his earlier posts :D -- developed some snooping around skills thanks to facebook)

I did same and saw his earlier posts where he mentioned about I 140 application around July 2008 being pending and H4 stamping for wife at HYD consulate. So seems like he has I 140 with PD of April 2008 , He could be lying about email receipt.

Seems like NVC was sending earlier email based on their previous assumption about porting. Now they have admitted 2 weeks ago that porting is not that high, they might have guided NVC with new forecast. based on that NVC is sending out email. If we hear multiple emails like him in couple of week , with that range then it will be ok to guess PD going to touch that date with in next 6 months.

[gc_peshwa]

I did same and saw his earlier posts where he mentioned about I 140 application around July 2008 being pending and H4 stamping for wife at HYD consulate. So seems like he has I 140 with PD of April 2008 , He could be lying about email receipt.

Seems like NVC was sending earlier email based on their previous assumption about porting. Now they have admitted 2 weeks ago that porting is not that high, they might have guided NVC with new forecast. based on that NVC is sending out email. If we hear multiple emails like him in couple of week , with that range then it will be ok to guess PD going to touch that date with in next 6 months.

That sounds about right. But just by statistics shouldnt we be seeing more such emails being sent out by NVC? Why only sporadic instances here and there about NVC emails for people with 07,08 PD?
That makes me doubt the posters genuine intentions:mad:

[dummgelauft]

That sounds about right. But just by statistics shouldnt we be seeing more such emails being sent out by NVC? Why only sporadic instances here and there about NVC emails for people with 07,08 PD?
That makes me doubt the posters genuine intentions:mad:

It may be that this person is cross charging to his/her spouse's country of birth, which could be NOT India...maybe.

[red200]

There is one more NVC mail in the other web site but not sure if PD is Jun 2007 or Mar 2008

[pbuckeye]

It may be that this person is cross charging to his/her spouse's country of birth, which could be NOT India...maybe.

Unlikely, chargeability is definitely India/China (he wonders if his PD might be current soon, which means its not current now). Going by the H4 stamping post, I would say definitely India.

Assuming that he is truthful in stating this, what does it really mean? How far in advance does NVC issue such notices?

[snathan]

It might "seem" like fraud to us, looking at it through our own filters, but the more likely scenario is that these companies are going strictly by the law.

All these companies that have been talked about in this thread about EB1 "misuse" have multi-billion dollar businesses, which they are not going to put at risk by running foul of laws - that too to give Green Cards to a few hundred employees (yes - each of these companies are applying probably for a few hundred of their employees in EB1 - not more) out of their employee base of more than 100K employees.

There might be a number of small time companies who might be abusing this EB1 loophole from all across the globe. Since we are more familiar with these few big companies, we have more opinion on them, but I think an analysis of the data will reveal much more of this coming from much smaller mom and pop shops across all industries across all countries.

The same multi billion dollars company does not hesitate to flout the law....are you not aware of the B1 visa law suit. If they can commit B1 visa fraud, whats stopping them from EB1 fraud.

[frustratingGC]

FYI
Infosys gets subpoena in the US on visa use | mydigitalfc.com (http://www.mydigitalfc.com/news/infosys-gets-subpoena-us-visa-use-142)

[h1techSlave]

I guess, the problem is that "operational or policy management" is a very loose term. It can be interpreted in multiple ways.

Seriously, what the heck is "operational or policy management" ?

My friend smuggymba,

Please see the L1A rules, it clearly says:

a majority of his or her duties relate to operational or policy management, not to the supervision of lower level employees.

You know how many managers in companies like Wipro, TCS, CTS will have the duties relate to operational or policy management!!. Not more than 5%. But they sponser L1As for allmost all of their managers. More than 80% L1As being misused/fraud, as most of the L1A managers are just doing a mundane job of supervising/harassing the lower level employees to work for more than 10 hours a day. The more they(these mundane managers) get them(employees) work the more promotion they will get. These so called mangers come here to USA on L1A(They are not at all qualified for L1A) and get more jobs for their company. These MNCs purposefully misleading the USCIS on L1A visas for their so called supervising managers..


http://www..com/visas/l1/


L1 visa lawyer (http://www.myvisa.com/Visasage/L1jobs.htm)



You know one of the top 5 indian MNCs used to quote $30/Hour for a resource. And the offer is take one and get the other free. So for $30/hr they are giving 2 resources. Do you think any other company in USA can beat them. So how do they spend money on visas other than finding some loop holes in the immigration system and sending their employees on Business Visas and get them work at the client location. Otherwise send the resources on L1 and get them work for a lower wages as there are no wage restrictions on L1. Or else threaten/bond(for 5k USD or 10k USD) the employees not to leave them once they are onsite.


Guys L1s are being misused by the big MNCs in a big way. There is no limit on L1s like H1Bs .

.

[PrinceVA]

I guess, the problem is that "operational or policy management" is a very loose term. It can be interpreted in multiple ways.

Seriously, what the heck is "operational or policy management" ?

It means... creating documents, doing nothing, doing BS in front of client, and throw the mistake on someone else. I am currently working with one of these companies as a contractor and this is my experience, it is Real time and most important, reporting from on-site :) .

[nishant2200]

totally correct. This is becoming an EB1 mis-use thread, but fine, venting is good sometimes :D

My friend, MS from here, ported from EB3 to EB2, I felt happy for him. He was qualified for the intent, and has > 100k salary.

I also know one family, came on L1, applied for EB1 with no labor needed, and got GC in 1.5 years after coming here, that person is just doing what mentioned by PrinceVA. The salary is also like 80k. I don't get it, if EB2 salary requirements are so high, then how come no one checks for EB1 Multi-national executive etc salary.

It means... creating documents, doing nothing, doing BS in front of client, and throw the mistake on someone else. I am currently working with one of these companies as a contractor and this is my experience, it is Real time and most important, reporting from on-site :) .

[rodnyb]

OK. I know similar cases. I know it is unfair (at least from my view) and could be unethical, not sure illegal though ( if proved unlawful, what about those thousands of GC been issued and those people)

I do appreciate CIS is taking a close look at those, and hopefully, in the future, it can be more strict, and follow the true intention of EB1...

Those EB1 (some are not from Inida/China, as their use is 6K/3K in 2010) could fall to EB2 ROW or EB2. I still don't understand why those ROW not just file for EB2 as it is Current almost all the time

As for PD movement, I heard from few lawyers that CIS seems very busy these days in responding/processing.. So I guess they are ramping up for the coming 4 months activity for sure.

I still think EB2I can move past March 2007 for sure till Sept.2011VB, 50% over Aug. 2007, 10% past Dec. 2007. Very less likely into 2008.


totally correct. This is becoming an EB1 mis-use thread, but fine, venting is good sometimes :D

My friend, MS from here, ported from EB3 to EB2, I felt happy for him. He was qualified for the intent, and has > 100k salary.

I also know one family, came on L1, applied for EB1 with no labor needed, and got GC in 1.5 years after coming here, that person is just doing what mentioned by PrinceVA. The salary is also like 80k. I don't get it, if EB2 salary requirements are so high, then how come no one checks for EB1 Multi-national executive etc salary.

[TeddyKoochu]

I did same and saw his earlier posts where he mentioned about I 140 application around July 2008 being pending and H4 stamping for wife at HYD consulate. So seems like he has I 140 with PD of April 2008 , He could be lying about email receipt.

Seems like NVC was sending earlier email based on their previous assumption about porting. Now they have admitted 2 weeks ago that porting is not that high, they might have guided NVC with new forecast. based on that NVC is sending out email. If we hear multiple emails like him in couple of week , with that range then it will be ok to guess PD going to touch that date with in next 6 months.

This sounds very reasonable and is definitely a good indicator. The 6 months timeline that you give is also quite reasonable. Iam hoping that there will be another 8K worth of movement in the Jul bulletinand the date will be around 01-Feb 2007. This willl setup an interesting stage for Aug & Sep.

[dontcareaboutGC]

This sounds very reasonable and is definitely a good indicator. The 6 months timeline that you give is also quite reasonable. Iam hoping that there will be another 8K worth of movement in the Jul bulletinand the date will be around 01-Feb 2007. This willl setup an interesting stage for Aug & Sep.

I think to make any sense of this or reliably use the information it might make to sense to have some more applications reporting NVC fee payment emails- Though I found One another blog I was reading people from Feb 2008 (India-Eb2) also seem to be getting NVC emails for paying AOS fees-

[TeddyKoochu]

I think to make any sense of this or reliably use the information it might make to sense to have some more applications reporting NVC fee payment emails- Though I found One another blog I was reading people from Feb 2008 (India-Eb2) also seem to be getting NVC emails for paying AOS fees-

I do agree with you that the volume should be high and if people consistently from 2008 are reporting than its a good sign. Unfortunately for EB2 there are only 1-2% cases at the NVC. What I intended to say was gc_on_demand's idea that they maybe sending 6 months in advance of the anticipated date of being current seems to be good. Another noteworthy point is that these reports were coming before the may bulletin but subsided after it because of the porting over-estimation now they have started again after the June where it has been stated that porting is not that high after all.

[gaz]

I think to make any sense of this or reliably use the information it might make to sense to have some more applications reporting NVC fee payment emails- Though I found One another blog I was reading people from Feb 2008 (India-Eb2) also seem to be getting NVC emails for paying AOS fees-

could you please educate me as to what is the significance of this? does this apply for consular processing only, or to 485 cases as well?

[dontcareaboutGC]

could you please educate me as to what is the significance of this? does this apply for consular processing only, or to 485 cases as well?
It doesnt apply to 485 cases (AOS) but usually provides a indicator.
This information is usually useful to evaluate how much movement in the upcoming VB is anticipated. NVC typically will ask for processing fees only if it believes that the PD of the applicant will be current in the upcoming months- if memory serves me right it is usually 6 months assuming that the applicant is documentarily qualified.

Hence if they are asking for processing the fees of someone who has PD of 2008 Eb2 India then it could be a indication of movement to within those dates in the upcoming bulletin's this quarter- Exactly which bulletin it would difficult to predict but generally in the quarter.

Also note that CP cases move much faster than AOS cases. Hence the DOS always has to ensure that consulates have enough processing volume (case load) to keep them busy. If they do not have that volume then they will move the dates forward regardless of if CIS can keep with the work load-

Hope this helps and makes sense!
Also for most times the CP and AOS cases are parallel- meaning that the keeping the CP volumes high enough will take precendence in case they run out- however this typically does not happen.

[dontcareaboutGC]

I do agree with you that the volume should be high and if people consistently from 2008 are reporting than its a good sign. Unfortunately for EB2 there are only 1-2% cases at the NVC. What I intended to say was gc_on_demand's idea that they maybe sending 6 months in advance of the anticipated date of being current seems to be good. Another noteworthy point is that these reports were coming before the may bulletin but subsided after it because of the porting over-estimation now they have started again after the June where it has been stated that porting is not that high after all.
I agree- I was generally aware of the 1-2 % but considering the number of cases we have for India- they will translate into a reasonable number-

Unless the consulates are running out of case-load I really will be skeptical in regards to such heavy movement.

[TeddyKoochu]

I agree- I was generally aware of the 1-2 % but considering the number of cases we have for India- they will translate into a reasonable number-

Unless the consulates are running out of case-load I really will be skeptical in regards to such heavy movement.

FAQ on the Dept of State website on NVC, the requests for fee can be considered to be a positive indicator definitely higher numbers will validate it.

Immigrant Visas Processing - General FAQs (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3180.html#beneficiary)

I Am the Beneficiary (applicant) and My Case Is at NVC. Now What Happens?
If a visa is available for your petition (or if the Department of State believes that one will be available in the next several months), the NVC will send you, the beneficiary, a Choice of Agent and Address letter containing the form DS-3032 and instructions for completing the form. If you are the beneficiary of an I-130 petition, the NVC will send your petitioner an Affidavit of Support (AOS) Processing Fee Bill Invoice along with instructions for paying the AOS fee.

If visas are not available for your visa category, the NVC will notify you that the NVC received your petition and will hold it until a visa becomes available.

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How Do I Pay the Fees Associated with the National Visa Center’s (NVC) Services?
The NVC will send the Affidavit of Support (AOS) Processing Fee Bill Invoice (if applicable) and the Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice when the fees become due. You must follow the payment instructions in the fee bill letter you will receive from the NVC.

Note: It is important to follow the NVC’s instructions carefully. Sending the NVC documentation (or paying fees) when they were not requested by the NVC will delay your visa.

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[voicerj]

FAQ on the Dept of State website on NVC, the requests for fee can be considered to be a positive indicator definitely higher numbers will validate it.

Immigrant Visas Processing - General FAQs (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3180.html#beneficiary)

I Am the Beneficiary (applicant) and My Case Is at NVC. Now What Happens?
If a visa is available for your petition (or if the Department of State believes that one will be available in the next several months), the NVC will send you, the beneficiary, a Choice of Agent and Address letter containing the form DS-3032 and instructions for completing the form. If you are the beneficiary of an I-130 petition, the NVC will send your petitioner an Affidavit of Support (AOS) Processing Fee Bill Invoice along with instructions for paying the AOS fee.

If visas are not available for your visa category, the NVC will notify you that the NVC received your petition and will hold it until a visa becomes available.

Back to Top

How Do I Pay the Fees Associated with the National Visa Center’s (NVC) Services?
The NVC will send the Affidavit of Support (AOS) Processing Fee Bill Invoice (if applicable) and the Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice when the fees become due. You must follow the payment instructions in the fee bill letter you will receive from the NVC.

Note: It is important to follow the NVC’s instructions carefully. Sending the NVC documentation (or paying fees) when they were not requested by the NVC will delay your visa.

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Teddy - You are again giving raising hopes for the coming bulletins. Hope all comes true

[dontcareaboutGC]

FAQ on the Dept of State website on NVC, the requests for fee can be considered to be a positive indicator definitely higher numbers will validate it.

Immigrant Visas Processing - General FAQs (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3180.html#beneficiary)

I Am the Beneficiary (applicant) and My Case Is at NVC. Now What Happens?
If a visa is available for your petition (or if the Department of State believes that one will be available in the next several months), the NVC will send you, the beneficiary, a Choice of Agent and Address letter containing the form DS-3032 and instructions for completing the form. If you are the beneficiary of an I-130 petition, the NVC will send your petitioner an Affidavit of Support (AOS) Processing Fee Bill Invoice along with instructions for paying the AOS fee.

If visas are not available for your visa category, the NVC will notify you that the NVC received your petition and will hold it until a visa becomes available.

Back to Top

How Do I Pay the Fees Associated with the National Visa Center’s (NVC) Services?
The NVC will send the Affidavit of Support (AOS) Processing Fee Bill Invoice (if applicable) and the Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice when the fees become due. You must follow the payment instructions in the fee bill letter you will receive from the NVC.

Note: It is important to follow the NVC’s instructions carefully. Sending the NVC documentation (or paying fees) when they were not requested by the NVC will delay your visa.

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Trend seems to be picking up- Noticed a few more NVC fee requests for 2008!

[la_2002_ch]

One of my knowns with a PD of feb 2008 got a mail today from NVC requesting the fees.

[sandy_anand]

Trend seems to be picking up- Noticed a few more NVC fee requests for 2008!

Where?

[dontcareaboutGC]

Where?
I wont mention the name of the blogs- primarily due to advertising money the blogs make- but you can find it on the website that cannot be mentioned here on IV.

[gc_vbin]

...

[sandy_anand]

I wont mention the name of the blogs- primarily due to advertising money the blogs make- but you can find it on the website that cannot be mentioned here on IV.

"The site that shall not be named!" voldemort.com. Got it my friend :D

I wonder how many people are going to type in voldemort.com :p

[dontcareaboutGC]

"The site that shall not be named!" voldemort.com. Got it my friend :D

I wonder how many people are going to type in voldemort.com :p
Also I recieved a note from one of my buddies with a PD earlier than mine who also recieved it- He specifically elected a CP rather than AOS...

[sandy_anand]

Also I recieved a note from one of my buddies with a PD earlier than mine who also recieved it- He specifically elected a CP rather than AOS...

That's very encouraging...