EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[gc_vbin]

Do you have what is the timeframe of his PD is? Is it in 2008 or before that?

Also I recieved a note from one of my buddies with a PD earlier than mine who also recieved it- He specifically elected a CP rather than AOS...

[bonobocobra]

Hi Dontcareabout GC,

I am pretty new to CP vs AOS filing. What does it mean when your friend w CP filing with a PD earlier than your's can receives a note from NVC?

Does AOS and CP track closely when it comes to PD's? If so, can we expect a BIG movement in the next bulletin? (BIG == Early 2008)

[sandy_anand]

Hi Dontcareabout GC,

I am pretty new to CP vs AOS filing. What does it mean when your friend w CP filing with a PD earlier than your's can receives a note from NVC?

Does AOS and CP track closely when it comes to PD's? If so, can we expect a BIG movement in the next bulletin? (BIG == Early 2008)

What it means is that the NVC thinks that PD for that category will move to that range within the next 6 months. That doesn't mean next VB or the one after that but within the next 6 months usually.

[cotes]

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance.... :confused:

[MacX]

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance.... :confused:
@cotes,

Simple answer is you can file a new labor from new employer and once approved you will use the priority date of your previous labor (PD porting). But May 2007 might become current in coming months (am guessing, not sure). If you can, probably you should wait until sep/oct 2011 bulletin before changing jobs, but you know your situation better than anyone else.

-Mac

[bonobocobra]

What it means is that the NVC thinks that PD for that category will move to that range within the next 6 months. That doesn't mean next VB or the one after that but within the next 6 months usually.


Ah I see. Howz is the CP process different from AOS process? How come they are invited now whereas there is no official indication of AOS dates to move to 2008?

[krishmunn]

What it means is that the NVC thinks that PD for that category will move to that range within the next 6 months. That doesn't mean next VB or the one after that but within the next 6 months usually.

What happens if NVCs assumption does not hold good ? Do they just hold the money and wait for PD to be current or they steal Visa numbers from those that would otherwise go for AOS and grant GC to CP folks ?

[skpanda]

Assuming you have not filed your 485 yet....You may be able to file your 485/EAD before Sept 2011. And may be get your GC before Feb 2012.

Is it possible for you to request your new employer to extend your offer until you get your GC. In that way.. you get your GC and they do not have to file GC for you. Win-Win situation.

It all depends on your personal situation. If you do decide to move to a new employer, you will file PERM/140/485/AC21 (port ur 2007 PD). This will delay your GC-in-hand by 1 year.

Good Luck!
S

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance.... :confused:

[sandy_anand]

Ah I see. Howz is the CP process different from AOS process? How come they are invited now whereas there is no official indication of AOS dates to move to 2008?

CP = Consular Processing falls under DOS. AOS is done by USCIS for those residing within US borders at the time of AOS. I think you can extrapolate the rest.

[bratramm]

....never been happier to eat my own words...
...so i called up the NVC Automated Message center as I did file under CP, and after I entered my I-140 case number it told me that the NVC fee receipt was prepared on 23rd May 2011 and will be sent over. My PD is 29FEB2008-EB2-India....

.....too premature to burst open the champagne bottle, since NVC sends these out about 6-9 months before the PD-which would put the cut off date somewhere in mid 2007.....but then one would have to wait for JUL/SEP 2012 to actually get to 2008...so its good news, but not great news.....in line with all the predictions on this site.....



2008 is too far ahead for even the NVS to acknowledge the dates might get current....given just the raw data that all of us have been crunching, even getting close to 2008 is hard-crossing mid 2007 seems to be the optimistic consensus.....and crossing that july 2007 milestone will take longer than hoped for.....if the trends continue into FY 2012, then 2008 seems possible in July-Sept 2012-not till then.
Not to burst anybody's bubble, but we should err on the side of caution and not repeat our overly optimistic estimates from last year.....my own PD is not till 2008, so, while this is great if it is true, on the face of all the information we have, its really unlikely.....I too have applied under CP and have yet to receive any notification from the NVS...i also have a couple of friends who are in teh same timeline who have not received anything yet....

[sandy_anand]

What happens if NVCs assumption does not hold good ? Do they just hold the money and wait for PD to be current or they steal Visa numbers from those that would otherwise go for AOS and grant GC to CP folks ?

You know, I have wondered about the same thing in the past. I honestly don't have a clue. Can someone who knows about this, comment?

[snathan]

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance.... :confused:

Have you already filed the I-485, then you wouldn't have any problem...otherwise you would need to start the GC from one. I would suggest to wait for couple more months rather than going through this process once again....

[cotes]

Assuming you have not filed your 485 yet....You may be able to file your 485/EAD before Sept 2011. And may be get your GC before Feb 2012.

Is it possible for you to request your new employer to extend your offer until you get your GC. In that way.. you get your GC and they do not have to file GC for you. Win-Win situation.

It all depends on your personal situation. If you do decide to move to a new employer, you will file PERM/140/485/AC21 (port ur 2007 PD). This will delay your GC-in-hand by 1 year.

Good Luck!
S

Yes, trying my best and lets see what happens whatever happens update you guys thanks for the prompt response. :) really appreciative it.

[bratramm]

The NVC will only collect your money and send your file to the consulate you had picked in the I-140 process....the consulate will hold it for you, till your PD becomes current.....in the goold old days, that took 3-4 months, so the NVC would send the fee receipts about 6 months ahead.....these days since the movement is in spurts, you could end up waiting for 9 months to move a single day (or 6 months by this years movement).....
...so no one is hoarding your visa numbers.....they are just doing the paperwork, and keeping it ready with a nice bow tie till the PD actually becomes current....


What happens if NVCs assumption does not hold good ? Do they just hold the money and wait for PD to be current or they steal Visa numbers from those that would otherwise go for AOS and grant GC to CP folks ?

[sandy_anand]

....never been happier to eat my own words...
...so i called up the NVC Automated Message center as I did file under CP, and after I entered my I-140 case number it told me that the NVC fee receipt was prepared on 23rd May 2011 and will be sent over. My PD is 29FEB2008-EB2-India....

.....too premature to burst open the champagne bottle, since NVC sends these out about 6-9 months before the PD-which would put the cut off date somewhere in mid 2007.....but then one would have to wait for JUL/SEP 2012 to actually get to 2008...so its good news, but not great news.....in line with all the predictions on this site.....

Congratulations! I have a feeling it will be a lot sooner than 6-9 months. All this points to a large spillover in the last quarter.

[skpanda]

CP = Consular Processing falls under DOS. AOS is done by USCIS for those residing within US borders at the time of AOS. I think you can extrapolate the rest.

This is good sign.. since DOS sets the cut-off dates in VB and they think 2008 can be reached before FY 2012.

[cbpds]

you will not be damned now for sure, you have infact authenticated the NVC discussion

Thanks

....never been happier to eat my own words...
...so i called up the NVC Automated Message center as I did file under CP, and after I entered my I-140 case number it told me that the NVC fee receipt was prepared on 23rd May 2011 and will be sent over. My PD is 29FEB2008-EB2-India....

.....too premature to burst open the champagne bottle, since NVC sends these out about 6-9 months before the PD-which would put the cut off date somewhere in mid 2007.....but then one would have to wait for JUL/SEP 2012 to actually get to 2008...so its good news, but not great news.....in line with all the predictions on this site.....

[bratramm]

....i really dont beleive there is any supply to take it beyond mid 2007-at best......
....and even if it gets to 2008, like i said it takes 9 months to move a single day without any quarterly spillover.....so as the old saying goes..."many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip"
Congratulations! I have a feeling it will be a lot sooner than 6-9 months. All this points to a large spillover in the last quarter.

[pbuckeye]

....never been happier to eat my own words...
...so i called up the NVC Automated Message center as I did file under CP, and after I entered my I-140 case number it told me that the NVC fee receipt was prepared on 23rd May 2011 and will be sent over. My PD is 29FEB2008-EB2-India....

.....too premature to burst open the champagne bottle, since NVC sends these out about 6-9 months before the PD-which would put the cut off date somewhere in mid 2007.....but then one would have to wait for JUL/SEP 2012 to actually get to 2008...so its good news, but not great news.....in line with all the predictions on this site.....

Wow. Looks like a definite spike in these NVC requests, I would say much more than what was seen before the May bulletin.

[sandy_anand]

This is good sign.. since DOS sets the cut-off dates in VB and they think 2008 can be reached before FY 2012.

Yes, at least I think that it will reach those dates before retrogressing. That way, USCIS can do an intake of fresh applications to estimate future demand. Of course everything I say needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Here's to hope...

[bratramm]

...spoke to my attorney now and she did confirm that its too early to open the champagne bottle.....
...also, she says that its a regular policy for most law firms to process the I-140 by CP. Her reasoning is that its easier to change from CP to AOS than from AOS to CP.....
......It makes sense...so quite a few of us people who filed after july 2007 might have their cases filed in CP.....
...maybe users who have PD after july 2008 should just call the NVC center and hear for themselves.....this would then help the predicters to figure where the upper boundary is, and work backwards to figure therange of the actual PD....:)


you will not be damned now for sure, you have infact authenticated the NVC discussion

Thanks

[bratramm]

In my case when people were talking about the May bulletin spike, I had called up the NVC and at that point there were no messages like this-so this has happened between the may spike and now.....all good news for the tireless predicters to know their work is being validated at different independednt levels....
cheers

Wow. Looks like a definite spike in these NVC requests, I would say much more than what was seen before the May bulletin.

[tanu_75]

....i really dont beleive there is any supply to take it beyond mid 2007-at best......
....and even if it gets to 2008, like i said it takes 9 months to move a single day without any quarterly spillover.....so as the old saying goes..."many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip"

thats true in terms of the visa availabilty not being there after 2007. but what are theses guys going to do after all these files are cleared. they need fresh inventory to get busy again and it takes a few months at least to process a 485 application. If they can clear backlog till july 2007, then they cant afford to wait till next july to make it current again. that's a sureshot recipe to waste visas. they will move at least a few months in advance of the dates till which visas are available.

anyway, its time now to dig into previous years forum threads to understand what the nvc emails could mean. we know for sure that emails have been recd for pd's until max apr 2008, so far. question to figure out is how can that be correlated with vb pd movement. previous years threads may have the answer.

[mach1343]

Guys,

My PD is Feb 2nd 2007. I am just hoping it will current this year.

My question is when my date is current, I need to apply for 485 and EAD since I missed the boat in 2007 (suffered a lot these 4 yrs).
But my wife currently is out of country and She is on vacation. What if I apply when the date becomes current and once she is in US I want to apply for her then? Is that a possibility? or we both need to apply together.

She can't come unless her visa gets stamped.

Please respond.

Thank you

[vdlrao]

....never been happier to eat my own words...
...so i called up the NVC Automated Message center as I did file under CP, and after I entered my I-140 case number it told me that the NVC fee receipt was prepared on 23rd May 2011 and will be sent over. My PD is 29FEB2008-EB2-India....

.....too premature to burst open the champagne bottle, since NVC sends these out about 6-9 months before the PD-which would put the cut off date somewhere in mid 2007.....but then one would have to wait for JUL/SEP 2012 to actually get to 2008...so its good news, but not great news.....in line with all the predictions on this site.....

Thanks for the information buddy. I appreciate it.


.

[bits219]

Friends, I have been reading this forum for a long time but never had anything to contribute. Today I have so I am posting :-), my PD is December 2007 and I just called NVC automated service as suggested by another member. Automated message says NVC prepared the fee invoice for my application on April 6th, 2011 and it will be dispatched in 6 weeks from that date. Hope it helps Gurus in calculation.

thats true in terms of the visa availabilty not being there after 2007. but what are theses guys going to do after all these files are cleared. they need fresh inventory to get busy again and it takes a few months at least to process a 485 application. If they can clear backlog till july 2007, then they cant afford to wait till next july to make it current again. that's a sureshot recipe to waste visas. they will move at least a few months in advance of the dates till which visas are available.

anyway, its time now to dig into previous years forum threads to understand what the nvc emails could mean. we know for sure that emails have been recd for pd's until max apr 2008, so far. question to figure out is how can that be correlated with vb pd movement. previous years threads may have the answer.

[cbpds]

We need someone with PD greater than April 2008 on CP to call for us to calibrate

Friends, I have been reading this forum for a long time but never had anything to contribute. Today I have so I am posting :-), my PD is December 2007 and I just called NVC automated service as suggested by another member. Automated message says NVC prepared the fee invoice for my application on April 6th, 2011 and it will be dispatched in 6 weeks from that date. Hope it helps Gurus in calculation.

[greenmonster]

EB2-India and EB2-China could see movement 'No Movement' to '01 December 2006' - We are assuming that on an average, spillover will be 11000 for rest of the year and EB2-IC will receive 3600 unused visas for July visa bulletin. We expect significant movement for EB2-IC in August visa bulletin. There can be 'no movement' only if upgrade demand is extremely high for folks with PD in 2006 or demand for EB2-ROW is marching toward it's annual limit, In each case, we should expect minimum spillover (8k) for rest of the year. Chances for no movement is extremely low. Any movement greater than '01 December 06' suggests that we will march towards our maximum predicted spillover of 15K and EB2-IC has potential to reach '01 June 2007' for FY 2011.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just thought of sharing related info, this is from a different blog...not sure if I can post that link here..

Now its time for more analysis, thoughts & predictions..

[dontcareaboutGC]

Do you have what is the timeframe of his PD is? Is it in 2008 or before that?
His PD is early 2008

[dontcareaboutGC]

What happens if NVCs assumption does not hold good ? Do they just hold the money and wait for PD to be current or they steal Visa numbers from those that would otherwise go for AOS and grant GC to CP folks ?
It never is a rule of thumb- But generally speaking they have to allow reasonable time for the applicant and processing. Also note that even if they have the interview the physical GC can take anywhere from 1 month to 4 months.

But basically it provides a good estimate of case load with the consulates!

[dontcareaboutGC]

...spoke to my attorney now and she did confirm that its too early to open the champagne bottle.....
...also, she says that its a regular policy for most law firms to process the I-140 by CP. Her reasoning is that its easier to change from CP to AOS than from AOS to CP.....
......It makes sense...so quite a few of us people who filed after july 2007 might have their cases filed in CP.....
...maybe users who have PD after july 2008 should just call the NVC center and hear for themselves.....this would then help the predicters to figure where the upper boundary is, and work backwards to figure therange of the actual PD....:)
I agree with you attorney. The idea behind these discussions is to provide a little clarity towards the process we define as the GC journey.

Now having said that while it may be early for you but it definately provides a better idea about when you may become current...

So in conclusion all these discussions are done not to provide exact dates but rather try and decipher the way in which the dates move or what can be generally expected moving forward...

Hope this helps..

[gc_peshwa]

Good confirmations all. These are the bellwether indicators that were lacking for past many months. I think we could safely assume that remaining EB2 demand is really what DOS has mentioned in the demand data for June 2011. i.e. ~35K(?)
Its a time consuming process to "prepare" the consulates, various processing centers for taking up large number of cases for processing in the near future.
The only question is what is the "window" that NVC expects the applicant to wait for? Is it 6 months? 1 year?
For a moment lets assume its 6 months. In that case the EB2IC cutoff dates should move to SEPT 2007 by Sept 2011 VB.
BUT....how does USCIS know that quarterly supply of visas in Oct-Nov-Dec 2011 is enough to consume the demand generated by moving dates to SEPT 2007?
This also could indicate a "conservative" approach by DOS to move dates rather than the "build the pipeline" philosophy that we've been talking about.
Now if folks with PD deeper in 2008 e.g. OCT 2008 or Jan 2009 get NVC receipts this is a clear indicator of DOS adopting a "build the pipeline" doctrine.
Either way I am very sure USCIS can handle 50K (35K+15K pipeline =) cases this year. (Remember USCIS issues around half a million odd visas every calendar year...!)

[whereismygclost]

gc_peshwa ..ur PD is same as mine Oct'07! Based on thie latest NVC emails update ..when do u think we will get a chance to file 485?

[harrydr]

My PD is May 1st, 2008. What number should i call to get the info about the fee receipt??

[voicerj]

My PD is May 1st, 2008. What number should i call to get the info about the fee receipt??

24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

Note: This service requires the use of a touch-tone telephone.

NVC Contact Information (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3177.html)

[greenmonster]

EB2-India and EB2-China could see movement 'No Movement' to '01 December 2006' - We are assuming that on an average, spillover will be 11000 for rest of the year and EB2-IC will receive 3600 unused visas for July visa bulletin. We expect significant movement for EB2-IC in August visa bulletin. There can be 'no movement' only if upgrade demand is extremely high for folks with PD in 2006 or demand for EB2-ROW is marching toward it's annual limit, In each case, we should expect minimum spillover (8k) for rest of the year. Chances for no movement is extremely low. Any movement greater than '01 December 06' suggests that we will march towards our maximum predicted spillover of 15K and EB2-IC has potential to reach '01 June 2007' for FY 2011.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just thought of sharing related info, this is from a different blog...not sure if I can post that link here..

Now its time for more analysis, thoughts & predictions..

Why would some one give a red on this ? not that I care of the colors.. but want to know the intent of the person giving a red.

[lvinaykumar]

They might just like the color red. :rolleyes: I see nothing worng with that post : Strange :eek:

[voicerj]

24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

Note: This service requires the use of a touch-tone telephone.

NVC Contact Information (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3177.html)

Thats funny ! Looks like somebody had a bad day today so he went on immigrationvoice.org and started giving red on any post he/she saw.

[harrydr]

I called the number and entered my LIN # and the system tells me there is no record. Does this mean they have not gotten to the May1st, 2008 PD yet for sending out the fee receipt request??

[mach1343]

24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

Note: This service requires the use of a touch-tone telephone.

NVC Contact Information (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3177.html)

I called the NVC and entered my SRC# and it says no record on file. My PD is Feb 2nd 2007

Strange!!

[gc_vbin]

Either that or your attorney did not request consular processing when they filed your I-140

I called the number and entered my LIN # and the system tells me there is no record. Does this mean they have not gotten to the May1st, 2008 PD yet for sending out the fee receipt request??

[mach1343]

Either that or your attorney did not request consular processing when they filed your I-140

Will that be an issue??

[gc_vbin]

No. Basically if the attorney did not request for consular processing during I-140 then it would be a regular AOS (I-485) which most of EB-2 applications are. And the record would not be with NVC as NVC deals only with consular processing cases.
Will that be an issue??

[dontcareaboutGC]

What happens if NVCs assumption does not hold good ? Do they just hold the money and wait for PD to be current or they steal Visa numbers from those that would otherwise go for AOS and grant GC to CP folks ?
This is more often than not a common occurence.Each and every consulate provides data to DOS in regards to their case load. However the consulates have no visibility in regards to the case loads of other consulates.

The DOS then will look at the consulate which has the latest PD i.e if some consulate is processing 2007 PD Oct Eb2 India and all other consulates have Eb2 Nov 2006 then the DOS will advance date based the on the later PD if there are cases. If a lot of porting of earlier PD are visible then it will keep the dates stagnant and just provide more cases to process to the Consulate in question.

However since only DOS has any actual information in regards to the case load they can and will retrogress or advance dates depending on what they see with the data available to them. So even if an applicant has recieved a NVC fee request it doesnt necessarily mean he is up for processing- this helps to analyze the direction of movement since DOS will always keep CP busy- there will never be a possibility atleast per the law that consulates remain idle and AOS will be processed.

In any case even if NVC asks for fee and the dates stay put then they will perhaps interview the applicant and keep everything on hold till a visa number becomes available...but again this rarely has occured in my experience.

Hope this helps.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Will that be an issue??
Wont be any issue- Usually attorneys do that since it is takes about a year to shift from AOS to CP whereas it takes a week or shorter if someone wants to shift from CP to AOS.

[greenmonster]

They might just like the color red. :rolleyes: I see nothing worng with that post : Strange :eek:

Thanks Vinay !.. just wondering if our group of Analysts.. lead by Teddy have something to say on the OP.

[eyeswe]

Good confirmations all. These are the bellwether indicators that were lacking for past many months. I think we could safely assume that remaining EB2 demand is really what DOS has mentioned in the demand data for June 2011. i.e. ~35K(?)
Its a time consuming process to "prepare" the consulates, various processing centers for taking up large number of cases for processing in the near future.
The only question is what is the "window" that NVC expects the applicant to wait for? Is it 6 months? 1 year?
For a moment lets assume its 6 months. In that case the EB2IC cutoff dates should move to SEPT 2007 by Sept 2011 VB.
BUT....how does USCIS know that quarterly supply of visas in Oct-Nov-Dec 2011 is enough to consume the demand generated by moving dates to SEPT 2007?
This also could indicate a "conservative" approach by DOS to move dates rather than the "build the pipeline" philosophy that we've been talking about.
Now if folks with PD deeper in 2008 e.g. OCT 2008 or Jan 2009 get NVC receipts this is a clear indicator of DOS adopting a "build the pipeline" doctrine.
Either way I am very sure USCIS can handle 50K (35K+15K pipeline =) cases this year. (Remember USCIS issues around half a million odd visas every calendar year...!)

The pessimism in me may be writing this , but would it be easy for DHS/USCIS (or whichever organization decides on VB dates) to not move the VD dates forward to prime the pipleline i.e get more applicants who have not filed for 485 and instead use the applications from the consulate offices (those who go for CP). Just a thought and curious at the same time.

[mechanical13]

The pessimism in me may be writing this , but would it be easy for DHS/USCIS (or whichever organization decides on VB dates) to not move the VD dates forward to prime the pipleline i.e get more applicants who have not filed for 485 and instead use the applications from the consulate offices (those who go for CP). Just a thought and curious at the same time.

CP typically accounts for only 1 -2 % of EB cases. To answer your question - using CP to fill the pipeline is not an option because there won't be sufficient cases in the CP pipeline to absorb future SOFAD.

[dontcareaboutGC]

The pessimism in me may be writing this , but would it be easy for DHS/USCIS (or whichever organization decides on VB dates) to not move the VD dates forward to prime the pipleline i.e get more applicants who have not filed for 485 and instead use the applications from the consulate offices (those who go for CP). Just a thought and curious at the same time.
CP and AOS are independant of each other. DOS when advancing or retrogressing dates will consider CP primarily and factor in other information for the VB publication specially since SOFAD cannot be absorbed by CP cases hence they have to consider case loads with the consulates, anticipated SOFAD amongst many other factors to evaluate the VB date publication.

What can one define as a good case load is unknown- atleast to me!

[mach1343]

Guys,

My PD is Feb 2nd 2007. I am just hoping it will current this year.

My question is when my date is current, I need to apply for 485 and EAD since I missed the boat in 2007 (suffered a lot these 4 yrs).
But my wife currently is out of country and She is on vacation. What if I apply when the date becomes current and once she is in US I want to apply for her then? Is that a possibility? or we both need to apply together.

She can't come unless her visa gets stamped.

Please respond.

Thank you

Hi Guys,

Can someone please answer this. If you guys dont mind. Thank you all.

[vdlrao]

Hi Guys,

Can someone please answer this. If you guys dont mind. Thank you all.

You will be current in Aug'2011 Bulletin.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Hi Guys,

Can someone please answer this. If you guys dont mind. Thank you all.
You should be able to apply together or independently when she comes back to into the country. Ideally together is recommended since all other processes then move simultaneously.

I dont have as much information perhaps people who have gone through this can comment?

[imh1b]

Guys if you want to help yourself, contact Rep Issa and tell him you support his bill to eliminate Diversity visa bill
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum110-recent-blogs/2195586-in-defense-of-the-lottery.html

Can someone draft a letter so that we can all write to him here http://issa.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=597&Itemid=73

[thankgod]

My Priority date is November 2009. Any Idea when my case would be current.

Thanks in Advance.

[skpanda]

My Priority date is November 2009. Any Idea when my case would be current.

Thanks in Advance.

Best case: You may get a chance to file 485/EAD before Sept 2012.
Worst case: Sept 2014.

[royu]

Hi ,

Can someone when my PD willbe current ?
If you guys mind, please dont mind.
Thank you .

[pknkak]

I tried the NVC number too and entered my SRC.... no, and I got the messge "no record found".

[eyeswe]

You will be current in Aug'2011 Bulletin.

What has been the longest jump in terms of dates since July 2007 for EB2I in a single VB. I think 6 months, correct? I think (w/o any basis of course) to assume anything more than that for the last quarter may need some guts..It has more to do probably about treading in the unknown for USCIS/DHS than any real math (which I think they as well acknowledge there are several unknowns when they publish these VB's)

[skpanda]

Hi ,

Can someone when my PD willbe current ?
If you guys mind, please dont mind.
Thank you .

Best case: You may be able to file 485/EAD by Sept 2011
Worst Case: Sept 2012

Good Luck!

[gc_peshwa]

Sincerely request all the posters to desist from asking individual predictions for EB2/EB3 cutoff. By doing that we risk deviating from the purpose of this "calculated predictions for EB cutoff dates".

[pbuckeye]

Sincerely request all the posters to desist from asking individual predictions for EB2/EB3 cutoff. By doing that we risk deviating from the purpose of this "calculated predictions for EB cutoff dates".

+1.

It also points to the fact that such posters don't even want to spend a few minutes trying to read this thread. The typical question ("when will I be current"), can usually be answered by reading the first post of this thread (or the last few pages).

If nothing, its probably discouraging to the many "analysts" on this thread. It's not supposed to be a "you do the math and give me the quick answer" thread.

[royu]

Thanks to everybody, though none of the pridctions in this tread matched !!! That's why it is called predictions.

I read this thread regularly. By asking, it also helps others to be more aware of the situation.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

By looking at the following document, I am optimistically concluding that once the demand becomes zero (Jul-2007), They will make the EB2-I current.

If you look at the above link and the EB2-I column, Jun-1992 was C and the Dates retrogresses in Jul-1992. In Apr-1993, when dates moved up to Aug-1992, they made it C. Then they made it U (Unavailable) in July-1996 and when in Mar-1997 it was Mar-1996 (closer to when it was unavailable), it was again made C. It remained current for a few months and then in Oct-1998, it retrogressed to Dec-1995, and when in July-1999, the date was Oct-98, it became Current the following month. It remained Current and then in Apr-2000 it retrogressed to Jan-1999. In Apr-2011, it moved till Nov-2000 and then became current.

I think I see a pattern here that when demand diminishes (i.e. the dates move close to when it was last retrogressed) then they make the date current. There have been discussions in this forum that there is chance that the dates may move to Jul-2007 this year and thus people like me (with EB2-I PD of 2008 plus) have been speculating whether they will move it by a few months, years or make it current. This analysis makes me think that it will be Current.

I am being optimistic here, hopefully, the people from EB-2 I with PD of 2008 onwards will get their EADs. Would like the experts to weigh in and present their thoughts.

[rahul2699]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

By looking at the following document, I am optimistically concluding that once the demand becomes zero (Jul-2007), They will make the EB2-I current.

If you look at the above link and the EB2-I column, Jun-1992 was C and the Dates retrogresses in Jul-1992. In Apr-1993, when dates moved up to Aug-1992, they made it C. Then they made it U (Unavailable) in July-1996 and when in Mar-1997 it was Mar-1996 (closer to when it was unavailable), it was again made C. It remained current for a few months and then in Oct-1998, it retrogressed to Dec-1995, and when in July-1999, the date was Oct-98, it became Current the following month. It remained Current and then in Apr-2000 it retrogressed to Jan-1999. In Apr-2011, it moved till Nov-2000 and then became current.

I think I see a pattern here that when demand diminishes (i.e. the dates move close to when it was last retrogressed) then they make the date current. There have been discussions in this forum that there is chance that the dates may move to Jul-2007 this year and thus people like me (with EB2-I PD of 2008 plus) have been speculating whether they will move it by a few months, years or make it current. This analysis makes me think that it will be Current.

I am being optimistic here, hopefully, the people from EB-2 I with PD of 2008 onwards will get their EADs. Would like the experts to weigh in and present their thoughts.

I truly hope that this will happen soon.. I had to turn down few opportunities due to visa issues.

[schandwani]

I truly hope that this will happen soon.. I had to turn down few opportunities due to visa issues.

The equation and trend look great on the chart but hits the road bump when it hits July of 2007. Before that the important trend to note is that the priority date and the current calendar has very small differential only a few months. DOS continued to follow the same logic that is when demand diminishes close to 0 make the date current and they so a shocking and adverse result when they did so in July 2007 when there was a huge differential of 3 years b/w the priority date being current and the current calendar year which means huge pent up demand. I am pretty sure they will not fall into the same trap. But I sincerely hope they do...

[skpanda]

Sound logical... if the dates become current...this would help many people (includng me)

However.. that is all history.. After the July 2007 fiasco.. they will be very cautious...

I think they learnt the lesson.. therefore in August 2008 they did a big jump of 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06) instead of making the dates current. In October 2008 they retrogessed back to 1-Apr-03.

Since this is a more recent trend... unfortunately....DOS will most likely follow the same.

Good luck...
S

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

By looking at the following document, I am optimistically concluding that once the demand becomes zero (Jul-2007), They will make the EB2-I current.

If you look at the above link and the EB2-I column, Jun-1992 was C and the Dates retrogresses in Jul-1992. In Apr-1993, when dates moved up to Aug-1992, they made it C. Then they made it U (Unavailable) in July-1996 and when in Mar-1997 it was Mar-1996 (closer to when it was unavailable), it was again made C. It remained current for a few months and then in Oct-1998, it retrogressed to Dec-1995, and when in July-1999, the date was Oct-98, it became Current the following month. It remained Current and then in Apr-2000 it retrogressed to Jan-1999. In Apr-2011, it moved till Nov-2000 and then became current.

I think I see a pattern here that when demand diminishes (i.e. the dates move close to when it was last retrogressed) then they make the date current. There have been discussions in this forum that there is chance that the dates may move to Jul-2007 this year and thus people like me (with EB2-I PD of 2008 plus) have been speculating whether they will move it by a few months, years or make it current. This analysis makes me think that it will be Current.

I am being optimistic here, hopefully, the people from EB-2 I with PD of 2008 onwards will get their EADs. Would like the experts to weigh in and present their thoughts.

[chkramesh]

just wondering, Why did they move dates to 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06) on August 2008, when already they had enough demand to process ? :confused:

[skpanda]

My guess would be that it was to create some CP (consular processing) cases so that NVC/Consulates may get some work load.


just wondering, Why did they move dates to 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06) on August 2008, when already they had enough demand to process ? :confused:

[pbuckeye]

just wondering, Why did they move dates to 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06) on August 2008, when already they had enough demand to process ? :confused:

My take on it:

Enough pending application does not necessarily mean enough demand for a period. Perhaps USCIS was still working on most of the cases from 2004 to 2006 and never requested visa numbers for those cases, So, DOS moved the date to "generate" more demand (from consulates or from USCIS thinking that there may be cases in 2006 that were ready for a number).

The situation now is a bit different, since USCIS has been holding onto the pending applications for 4 years now, and the assumption is that they must have done all the processing thus making the application ready for a visa number (which equals to demand for DOS).

[ctm1234]

As stated

Therefore in August 2008 they did a big jump of 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06)

August Visa Bulletin:

Big jump of 2+ or 2 years ( from 01-APR-07 to 01-JUN-09).

I pray so the above scenario happens. So atleast people who have missed the 2007 boat can get an EAD.

[shan24]

I concur with you.

[rameshk]

We can expect some significant movement in the August VB which will be release around July 10th 2011. Let us hope for the best.
As stated

Therefore in August 2008 they did a big jump of 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06)

August Visa Bulletin:

Big jump of 2+ or 2 years ( from 01-APR-07 to 01-JUN-09).

I pray so the above scenario happens. So atleast people who have missed the 2007 boat can get an EAD.

[rahul2699]

I truly hope that this will happen soon.. I had to turn down few opportunities due to visa issues.

i wonder why i got reds for this..not that it matters...nothing wrong with hoping isn't it ;)

[sanz]

As stated

Therefore in August 2008 they did a big jump of 2+ years (from 1-Apr-04 to 1-Jun-06)

August Visa Bulletin:

Big jump of 2+ or 2 years ( from 01-APR-07 to 01-JUN-09).

I pray so the above scenario happens. So atleast people who have missed the 2007 boat can get an EAD.
If they use steroids then they can surely make this jump. The unfortunate thing is they just keep giving us dump

[ravi.shah]

i wonder why i got reds for this..not that it matters...nothing wrong with hoping isn't it ;)

Don't wonder Rahul.
This is IV. One of the widest variety of humans roam here... :)

[cbpds]

Your getting reds as we are deviating from the discussion of the thread
This thread is based on analytical discussion of data.

Don't wonder Rahul.
This is IV. One of the widest variety of humans roam here... :)

[AshokApex]

what about EB2 PD 2008 March,

[belmontboy]

what about EB2 PD 2008 March,

what about it?

[gatec77]

what about EB2 PD 2008 March,

Please see previous posts.

Do not ask individual PD questions and dilute this important thread. If you carefully read thru this thread you will get your answer.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

The equation and trend look great on the chart but hits the road bump when it hits July of 2007. Before that the important trend to note is that the priority date and the current calendar has very small differential only a few months. DOS continued to follow the same logic that is when demand diminishes close to 0 make the date current and they so a shocking and adverse result when they did so in July 2007 when there was a huge differential of 3 years b/w the priority date being current and the current calendar year which means huge pent up demand. I am pretty sure they will not fall into the same trap. But I sincerely hope they do...

Agreed, but in July 2007 the influx of majority of applications in EB3. If you just look at EB2 numbers it isn't that bad

[skpanda]

Agreed, but in July 2007 the influx of majority of applications in EB3. If you just look at EB2 numbers it isn't that bad

True.. but after 2007... you would see that there are more and more number of people are applying under EB2. There are some other forums that I am part of and the percentage are working out as 80% EB2 vs 20 % EB3 (if not worse). These numbers are based on PERM and I140 data from i think...

Therefore my guess is that post 2007 - till 2nd quarter of FY 2011 we are looking at about 100K EB2 applications (including dependents).

I do not want to disappoint anybody but just putting few things in perspective based on the information I have. I would be impacted :( if DOS decides not to make EB2 current once the demand is zero. My PD is in 2010.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

True.. but after 2007... you would see that there are more and more number of people are applying under EB2. There are some other forums that I am part of and the percentage are working out as 70% EB2 vs 20 % EB3 (if not worse). These numbers are based on PERM and I140 data from i think...

Therefore my guess is that post 2007 - till 2nd quarter of FY 2011 we are looking at about 100K EB2 applications (including dependents).

I do not want to disappoint anybody but just putting few things in perspective on the information I have. I would be impacted :( if DOS decides not to make EB2 current once the demand is zero. My PD is in 2010.

Correct and still mytheory that they will make the date C holds true. Its only that the cycle of whenthe date becomes C is longer. It will be 4 or 5 years after July 2007 (if all the demand is eaten by 2011 or 2012).

Also, I totally agree that post 2007, most applicants are EB2. No one wants to file in EB3. And even if they did it they will try and port it. Also, I agree that there will be atleast 120K EB2-I demand post July 2007. Ironically, EB2 will soon be the new EB3 :(

[TeddyKoochu]

If we look at the inventory for 2007 for India the EB2 Total is 9918 and EB3 Total is 4616. None of these points have ever been current after 2007. This gives the ratio as 68%. However Iam sure now that there is more clarity even fewer people are applying in EB3. The only reasons to file in EB3 are a) 6th Year extension, Eb3 approval is safer than EB2 b)Having a PD to port later c) Company policy to file in EB3 d) Only a 3 yr degree with no addendum. The ratio for EB2 - EB3 is easily 75-25 now and as many people have put it the total EB2 India / China backlog might well be 100K.

[gulti_bhai]

True.. but after 2007... you would see that there are more and more number of people are applying under EB2. There are some other forums that I am part of and the percentage are working out as 80% EB2 vs 20 % EB3 (if not worse). These numbers are based on PERM and I140 data from i think...

Therefore my guess is that post 2007 - till 2nd quarter of FY 2011 we are looking at about 100K EB2 applications (including dependents).

I do not want to disappoint anybody but just putting few things in perspective based on the information I have. I would be impacted :( if DOS decides not to make EB2 current once the demand is zero. My PD is in 2010.

OK, to put some facts, below are number post July 2007 FY, and for FY 2008 and 2009. As seen, there are not much EB-2 in 2007 post July and in FY2008 the number is just 2703
and in FY2009 it is 2658. Below are the figures for Post Jul 2007, FY-2008 and FY-2009. I am not sure the CERTIFIED_EXPIRED is is TRUE labour expiry, so I counted those numbers also. Even then the number is not significantly high. Relax guys.....

(Total/India/China) = 16023/13661/2362 -- Including CERTIFIED-EXPIRED
(Total/India/China) = 9021/ 7764/1257 -- NOT Including CERTIFIED-EXPIRED

select * from perm_FY2007_data
where class_of_admission='H-1B'
and pw_level_9089='Level II' -- 25612
and case_status not in('Denied','Withdrawn','CERTIFIED-EXPIRED') -- 23564
and country_of_citzenship='INDIA' -- 10348
and decision_date > format('2007-07-01','YYYY-MM-DD') -- 2403
--and country_of_citzenship='CHINA' -- 515 --> 2918
order by decision_date ;

select * from perm_FY2008
where class_of_admission='H-1B'
and pw_level_9089='Level II' -- 14339
and case_status NOT in('Denied','Withdrawn','CERTIFIED-EXPIRED') -- 4996
--and country_of_citzenship='INDIA' -- 2703
and country_of_citzenship='CHINA' -- 376 --> 3079

select * from perm_fy_2009
where "CLASS OF ADMISSION" = 'H-1B'
AND "CASE STATUS" not in('Denied','Withdrawn','CERTIFIED-EXPIRED')
and "PW LEVEL 9089" ='Level II' -- 4744
and "COUNTRY OF CITZENSHIP" = 'INDIA' -- 2658
--AND "COUNTRY OF CITZENSHIP" = 'CHINA' -- 366 --> 3024

[shouldIwait]

You need to remove the level='||' clause and multiply the results by 0.75. The levels mentioned in PERM data are salary levels not preference categories.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Deleted

[h1_b_visa_holder]

You need to remove the level='||' clause and multiply the results by 0.75. The levels mentioned in PERM data are salary levels not preference categories.

Correct, And also include Certified expired. It becomes certified expired after 6 months

[gujju]

House Bill Exempting Certain Schedule A Foreign Nurses From Numerical Limitation for Employment-Based Immigration Visas Upto 20,000 Per Year :-

Does this mean they no longer will be counted against EB3 and EB3 will move faster.?

[TeddyKoochu]

House Bill Exempting Certain Schedule A Foreign Nurses From Numerical Limitation for Employment-Based Immigration Visas Upto 20,000 Per Year :-

Does this mean they no longer will be counted against EB3 and EB3 will move faster.?

AFAIK this is just another proposal / bill introduced in the house. Nurses come in EB3 - Other workers yes if the bill gets passed EB3 will move faster.

[gc_on_demand]

AFAIK this is just another proposal / bill introduced in the house. Nurses come in EB3 - Other workers yes if the bill gets passed EB3 will move faster.

So many bills come and go every year .. I don't see any hope in any immigration bill after what happen to HR 5882 in 2008. Horse ate that.

[mailmy_gc]

Hello -

I just saw the new inventory data is released (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf)...

Thanks

[evoori]

Hello -

I just saw the new inventory data is released (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf)...

Thanks

Comparing the inventory data released in Jan 2011 and this one.. My first hand calculation says EB3 reduced by around 1500 between April 2002 (EB3 PD) and May 2006 (EB2 PD).. doesn't look like lot of porting as we expected..

One important thing to note is that EB3 inventory increased in 2006..

[cbpds]

can we get to know how many EB1 numbers can we get in the upcoming spillover?

Comparing the inventory data released in Jan 2011 and this one.. My first hand calculation says EB3 reduced by around 1500 between April 2002 (EB3 PD) and May 2006 (EB2 PD).. doesn't look like lot of porting as we expected..

One important thing to note is that EB3 inventory increased in 2006..

[nat23]

can we get to know how many EB1 numbers can we get in the upcoming spillover?

If you look at the June inventory there is a demand of about 10K till April. Add another 3K till Sept. That leaves 27K unused in EB1. 12K of which has been provided to EB2IC hence another 15K will fall down.

Cheers
Nat

P.S. This is my understanding of the numbers and I dont guarantee it is correct.

[nat23]

Similarily from the same numbers I can conclude that

EB4 will provide about 5K and EB5 7K

Hence spillover in last quarter should be 15K+5K+7K = 27K

Total spillover over for the year = 27K +12K = 39K

I think that EB2 ROW should also provide some spillover but I'm not sure.

Cheers
Nat

Again these numbers are based on my limited understanding of the issue.

[nishant2200]

I also kind of agree. The EB1 is a surprise. Maybe thats why they releases 12k early.

[vijay226]

Similarily from the same numbers I can conclude that

EB4 will provide about 5K and EB5 7K

Hence spillover in last quarter should be 15K+5K+7K = 27K

Total spillover over for the year = 27K +12K = 39K

I think that EB2 ROW should also provide some spillover but I'm not sure.

Cheers
Nat

Again these numbers are based on my limited understanding of the issue.
I have a feeling we will have a spill over from eb4 also this time.

[naveenkprasadam]

Vijay predicted exactly the same like 2 weeks back.Vijay is new vdlrao?

[gc_vbin]

Teddy - do you have any comments on these numbers? Looks like if nat23 is correct we are almost set to cross the July 2007 mark by Sep 2011?
Similarily from the same numbers I can conclude that

EB4 will provide about 5K and EB5 7K

Hence spillover in last quarter should be 15K+5K+7K = 27K

Total spillover over for the year = 27K +12K = 39K

I think that EB2 ROW should also provide some spillover but I'm not sure.

Cheers
Nat

Again these numbers are based on my limited understanding of the issue.

[nat23]

I quickly looked at the EB2ROW numbers and to me the spill across number looks too good to be true but I'll still lay it down for everyone to see and critique.

Here is the math based on my understanding of the numbers

Total supply = 40K
2800 each for India, China and Mexico = 8400
EB2ROW gets = 40K-8.4K = 31.6K

EBROW demand = 9K till april
Another 6.6K till Sept
Total demand = 15.6K

Left over = 31.6K -15.6K = 16K

Someone please let me know if I have this right

Cheers
Nat

[dkshitij]

I quickly looked at the EB2ROW numbers and to me the spill across number looks too good to be true but I'll still lay it down for everyone to see and critique.

Here is the math based on my understanding of the numbers

Total supply = 40K
2800 each for India, China and Mexico = 8400
EB2ROW gets = 40K-8.4K = 31.6K

EBROW demand = 9K till april
Another 4K till Sept
Total demand = 13K

Left over = 31.6K -13K = 18.6K

Someone please let me know if I have this right

Cheers
Nat


The inventory is of only pending cases. One has to add approved cases from Oct 2010 to date. Moreover, it is expected that based on I-140 approvals/filings and PERM approvals that there is going to be surge of filings and approvals for eb2 ROW. hence, there will be no spillover from Eb2 ROW. Get a grip on yourself.

[GCHope2011]

I quickly looked at the EB2ROW numbers and to me the spill across number looks too good to be true but I'll still lay it down for everyone to see and critique.

Here is the math based on my understanding of the numbers

Total supply = 40K
2800 each for India, China and Mexico = 8400
EB2ROW gets = 40K-8.4K = 31.6K

EBROW demand = 9K till april
Another 6.6K till Sept
Total demand = 15.6K

Left over = 31.6K -15.6K = 16K

Someone please let me know if I have this right

Cheers
Nat
your calculation is on the right track. If you would like to be a bit conservative, assuming that there are some of the EB2 ROW folks have been approved as well during 2011, that would still give a almost 10K EB2 ROW --> EB2 - I & C

[snathan]

.

[venkataramesh]

I recently started looking at these numbers and don't understand much about this.

I believe Inventory data represents pending 485s. How did you come up with these numbers?. Just curious.:confused:
Similarily from the same numbers I can conclude that

EB4 will provide about 5K and EB5 7K

Hence spillover in last quarter should be 15K+5K+7K = 27K

Total spillover over for the year = 27K +12K = 39K

I think that EB2 ROW should also provide some spillover but I'm not sure.

Cheers
Nat

Again these numbers are based on my limited understanding of the issue.

[sachuin23]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

[glimmerOfHope]

EB1 and EB2-ROW being current any approve-able case is assigned a visa # straight without wait time. These cases never make it to the inventory. The inventory is only of the pending cases. Also like someone pointed out, there have been EB2-ROW approvals since Oct 2010 and these cases did not get added to the inventory and there has been more visas consumption from the 40k from each category as against what you have used for your analysis.

Last year I did not trust my own analysis and raised my hopes that others predictions were better than mine and was burnt when the Sept 2010 VB came out with only 2 months movements and you know what happened in later VBs. I see other people are making the same mistake I did last year. I hope the best for us all.

Please take every analsyis with mountains of salt instead of grains.

Good Luck to all.

I quickly looked at the EB2ROW numbers and to me the spill across number looks too good to be true but I'll still lay it down for everyone to see and critique.

Here is the math based on my understanding of the numbers

Total supply = 40K
2800 each for India, China and Mexico = 8400
EB2ROW gets = 40K-8.4K = 31.6K

EBROW demand = 9K till april
Another 6.6K till Sept
Total demand = 15.6K

Left over = 31.6K -15.6K = 16K

Someone please let me know if I have this right

Cheers
Nat

[rakesh76]

485 inventory as of 1st June

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

[Irs]

All,

The published 485 inventory report under the section "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of June 2011" did not include the numbers for India/China. Here is how the conclusion was arrived?

World inventory for Sep 2007

Total = 28 (page 1)
ROW(except CHI/IND/PHI/MEX) = 23 (Page 2)
Mexico = 0 (Page 5)
Philippines = 5 (Page 7)

Based on the numbers, it shows there were no filing for the September 2007(and from Sep 2007 onwards) from India or china. Wondering whether there will be new report published? Would IV can point this out to USCIS?

Raw Data Extract: (http://irscjb.blogspot.com/2011/05/analysis-june-2011-employment-based-i.html)

[vijay226]

All,

The published 485 inventory report under the section "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of June 2011" did not include the numbers for India/China. Here is how the conclusion was arrived?

World inventory for Sep 2007

Total = 28 (page 1)
ROW(except CHI/IND/PHI/MEX) = 23 (Page 2)
Mexico = 0 (Page 5)
Philippines = 5 (Page 7)

Based on the numbers, it shows there were no filing for the September 2007(and from Sep 2007 onwards) from India or china. Wondering whether there will be new report published? Would IV can point this out to USCIS?

Raw Data Extract: (http://irscjb.blogspot.com/2011/05/analysis-june-2011-employment-based-i.html)
why would be sept 2007 pending for india and china if eb2/eb3 were never current before??

[gc_peshwa]

Dont have enough time right now to analyze the demand data. Numbers dont look that rosy from the 485 pending inventory report.

Looks like EB1 gives ~8K more spillover to EB2. They still need 40K to clear the pending EB2 inventory. But per rough estimates they should've already assigned 9K visa numbers to reducing the pending inventory.
That is not clearly apparent. Looks like some more cases ~5k got added that were not part of previous known demand. That could be EB3 to EB2 porting+other EB2 ROW demand too.
Lets wait for the gurus to comment.
But they released the report is a great sign :-)

[rodnyb]

I agree, the so-called Q (he had all rosy predictions) is gone and now started his own blog with ads, predicting PD will be April 2007 and his is March 2007. It is just a false hope.

This inventory data is not looking good at all.

Eb2 still has 42K in total.
so 3 quarters has passed, they should have used 3/4 x 40K = 30K already based on quarterly quota. So only 10K left, and ROW has still 8800 demand.
Remember, those numbers are those a) been processed b) ready for approval
So only 2K left for spill over from EB2 ROW

Eb1 has 6170. Assuming they've consumed 30K (12K was used to move EB2 in June). 10K left. So 4K for spill over from EB1

Eb4 Eb5 could have 8-10K, so 10K

So total, only 16K left for EB2 I/C in the last quarter. That will move PD to Feb.2007

This also remove the possibility of DOS to open gate to take in new application pipeline as there will still lots of pre-adjudicated cases, + PWMB, + upgraders

So be realistic, we can all hope/fream for the best, but prepare for the worst.
reality is not looking bright for now.




EB1 and EB2-ROW being current any approve-able case is assigned a visa # straight without wait time. These cases never make it to the inventory. The inventory is only of the pending cases. Also like someone pointed out, there have been EB2-ROW approvals since Oct 2010 and these cases did not get added to the inventory and there has been more visas consumption from the 40k from each category as against what you have used for your analysis.

Last year I did not trust my own analysis and raised my hopes that others predictions were better than mine and was burnt when the Sept 2010 VB came out with only 2 months movements and you know what happened in later VBs. I see other people are making the same mistake I did last year. I hope the best for us all.

Please take every analsyis with mountains of salt instead of grains.

Good Luck to all.

[rag1232]

Gurus,
Could you please provide us your prediction for July 2011 VB based on new inventory report from USCIS? I would really appreciate your time.

Thanks,
Nandu

[snathan]

I agree, the so-called Q (he had all rosy predictions) is gone and now started his own blog with ads, predicting PD will be April 2007 and his is March 2007. It is just a false hope.

This inventory data is not looking good at all.

Eb2 still has 42K in total.
so 3 quarters has passed, they should have used 3/4 x 40K = 30K already based on quarterly quota. So only 10K left, and ROW has still 8800 demand.
Remember, those numbers are those a) been processed b) ready for approval
So only 2K left for spill over from EB2 ROW
Eb1 has 6170. Assuming they've consumed 30K (12K was used to move EB2 in June). 10K left. So 4K for spill over from EB1

Eb4 Eb5 could have 8-10K, so 10K

So total, only 16K left for EB2 I/C in the last quarter. That will move PD to Feb.2007

This also remove the possibility of DOS to open gate to take in new application pipeline as there will still lots of pre-adjudicated cases, + PWMB, + upgraders

So be realistic, we can all hope/fream for the best, but prepare for the worst.
reality is not looking bright for now.

The EB2 ROW has 8K pending of which

<2009 - 1500
2009 - 2000
2010 - 4000
2011 - 1000

There must be some reason for these ROWs are pending...why do you think the USCIS is going to clear them in a hurry?
If they are ready for approval, why would they wait for 2 or more years?

Potentially we would get 2-8K from EB2 ROW.

When the processing time for I-485 is 3-4 months, and only 3 months left in this FY, how the PWMB are going to get on board. These PWMB are not pre-adjustedcated as they are yet to file the I-485.

I am hoping this would take the PD very well into second half of 2007. After that its anyone's guess what DOS/USCIS wants to do.

[dagrawal]

Hi All, its my first stab at this prediction tab, thus please forgive my ignorance and mistakes.

I tried comparing the inventory data June 2011 vs Jan 2011. Below are my assumptions and conclusions:

1. For most of the 2010, the PERM approval used to take around 8-12 months
2. It takes 3-4 months for I-485 approval

In Jan 2011 data sheet, look at the pending I485 cases for June 2010 (i.e. 504). I assume, thats when the PERM got approved for June filers, and they applied for I485.

In the same data sheet (i.e. Jan 2011), look at May 2010 (373) and July 2010 (337). Assuming linear distribution, I would say ~ 150 cases are being added each month (i.e. difference between June and July data), and ~150 are being approved each month (i.e. difference between May and June data).

From June 2011 inventory sheet, since PERM processing time has been reduced, the same phenomenon applies, but for more advanced dates Nov 2010 - Feb 2012 (i.e. dates close to calendar dates).

Since it takes ~4 months for a I485 approval, and 150 I485 are being approved every month (for each 4 month window), I would assume that EB2 ROW is consuming at least 600 visas every month. To be on safe side, I would mark it 800. For 12 months, its 9600 visas. Also, there are ~10K pending cases. So, EB2 ROW will consume ~20K visas. Remaining (~12 K) will be available for spill over.


Adding all these,

EB1 + EB2 ROW + EB4 + EB5
24K + 12K + 5K + 7K = 48K.

Out of which 9K has already happened, thus 39K more to go. Looks like EB2IC easly cross mid-late 2007.

Comments welcome!

[rodnyb]

Yes, most of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases should not appear in the inventory as they are always Current and get approved once processed.

These 8K cases are surely processed cases, but are waiting for RFEs (medical, finger print, etc)... This is the way CIS telling DOS the demand, and DOS will deem those are approvable and can consume visa numbers instantly once FRE is received. This is also why those demand is not shown in DOS demand but DOS will deduct those numbers in the supply...

I am just curious, why I got all those red dots?

I would still believe the situation is not the bright as many PWMB and proting/upgrading will hold the PD movement. I wish DOS could move PD a little further to take in some pipeline/buffer for next year. However, the whole issue still comes to how fast and which pre-adjudicated cases CIS will adjudicate (FIFO? ROW first?) It could be messy the last 3 months from July...



The EB2 ROW has 8K pending of which

<2009 - 1500
2009 - 2000
2010 - 4000
2011 - 1000

There must be some reason for these ROWs are pending...why do you think the USCIS is going to clear them in a hurry?
If they are ready for approval, why would they wait for 2 or more years?

Potentially we would get 2-8K from EB2 ROW.

When the processing time for I-485 is 3-4 months, and only 3 months left in this FY, how the PWMB are going to get on board. These PWMB are not pre-adjustedcated as they are yet to file the I-485.

I am hoping this would take the PD very well into second half of 2007. After that its anyone's guess what DOS/USCIS wants to do.

[vijay226]

EB2-ROW-M-P - FY 2011 worst-case (taking into account Jan and June inventory) demand expected is around - 28,600 - Min Spillover expected is - 6000
EB1- FY 2011 worst case demand expected- 21,506 - Min Spillover expected is - 19k-12k = 7000
EB5 - FY 2011 worst case demand expected - 1,880 - Min Spillover expected is - 8000
Porting does not look more than 2,800 until this inventory.

Total Minimum Spillover expected
6000 + 7000 + 8000 = 21000 (enough to just reach 22 July 2007)

[TeddyKoochu]

Hello -

I just saw the new inventory data is released (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf)...

Thanks

Many Thanks for posting.

Comparing the inventory data released in Jan 2011 and this one.. My first hand calculation says EB3 reduced by around 1500 between April 2002 (EB3 PD) and May 2006 (EB2 PD).. doesn't look like lot of porting as we expected..

One important thing to note is that EB3 inventory increased in 2006..

I researched the differences a little further to infer how much porting is happening.

EB3 - I total (Jun Inventory) = 57119
EB3- I total (Jan Inventory) = 58440
Nett Reduction = 1321

Now let us determine the component that should be regular approvals. Lets take 01-May-2002 as the benchmark date for this.

EB3 - I (1st May 2002 - Jun Inv) = 901
EB3 - I (1st May 2002 - Jan Inv) = 2052
Approvals due to regular cap in the time between the 2 inventories = 2052 - 901 = 1151.

Now if we assume that there has been no local office demand addition to the inventory then porting during this period is 1321 - 1151 = 170.

If we multiply this by 3 since the time span is 4 months its just 510. This would imply that district office cases are still being added to the inventory. We may also infer that PD porting is not that high after all.

can we get to know how many EB1 numbers can we get in the upcoming spillover?

If you look at the June inventory there is a demand of about 10K till April. Add another 3K till Sept. That leaves 27K unused in EB1. 12K of which has been provided to EB2IC hence another 15K will fall down.

Cheers
Nat

P.S. This is my understanding of the numbers and I dont guarantee it is correct.

The inventory is a snapshot its just lists the current unapproved cases it would not show the cases that have already been approved in the fiscal year. So we cannot posibly make the interpretation about spillover from EB1 by this method.

Similarily from the same numbers I can conclude that

EB4 will provide about 5K and EB5 7K

Hence spillover in last quarter should be 15K+5K+7K = 27K

Total spillover over for the year = 27K +12K = 39K

I think that EB2 ROW should also provide some spillover but I'm not sure.

Cheers
Nat

Again these numbers are based on my limited understanding of the issue.

I have a feeling we will have a spill over from eb4 also this time.

Teddy - do you have any comments on these numbers? Looks like if nat23 is correct we are almost set to cross the July 2007 mark by Sep 2011?

I quickly looked at the EB2ROW numbers and to me the spill across number looks too good to be true but I'll still lay it down for everyone to see and critique.

Here is the math based on my understanding of the numbers

Total supply = 40K
2800 each for India, China and Mexico = 8400
EB2ROW gets = 40K-8.4K = 31.6K

EBROW demand = 9K till april
Another 6.6K till Sept
Total demand = 15.6K

Left over = 31.6K -15.6K = 16K

Someone please let me know if I have this right

Cheers
Nat

NAT warm welcome to you the inventory is only a current snapshot not all of it is approvable however more importantly it misses the approvals in the year.

EB4 has not provided any spillover historically, I would bet that the maximum we can get in the coming 3 months is 24K, 8K each from EB1, EB2 and EB5, out of this only the 8K from EB5 is the only surety the rest are variable. Following are the details from the header of the thread.

- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007

[TeddyKoochu]

EB2-ROW-M-P - FY 2011 worst-case (taking into account Jan and June inventory) demand expected is around - 28,600 - Min Spillover expected is - 6000
EB1- FY 2011 worst case demand expected- 21,506 - Min Spillover expected is - 19k-12k = 7000
EB5 - FY 2011 worst case demand expected - 1,880 - Min Spillover expected is - 8000
Porting does not look more than 2,800 until this inventory.

Total Minimum Spillover expected
6000 + 7000 + 8000 = 21000 (enough to just reach 22 July 2007)

This analysis has 1 missing link that ~10K of spillover has already been applied so this would effectively push the dates to Apr 2007.

I agree, the so-called Q (he had all rosy predictions) is gone and now started his own blog with ads, predicting PD will be April 2007 and his is March 2007. It is just a false hope.

This inventory data is not looking good at all.

Eb2 still has 42K in total.
so 3 quarters has passed, they should have used 3/4 x 40K = 30K already based on quarterly quota. So only 10K left, and ROW has still 8800 demand.
Remember, those numbers are those a) been processed b) ready for approval
So only 2K left for spill over from EB2 ROW

Eb1 has 6170. Assuming they've consumed 30K (12K was used to move EB2 in June). 10K left. So 4K for spill over from EB1

Eb4 Eb5 could have 8-10K, so 10K

So total, only 16K left for EB2 I/C in the last quarter. That will move PD to Feb.2007

This also remove the possibility of DOS to open gate to take in new application pipeline as there will still lots of pre-adjudicated cases, + PWMB, + upgraders

So be realistic, we can all hope/fream for the best, but prepare for the worst.
reality is not looking bright for now.

I think your analysis is a little harsh but realistic. No doubt EB5 will give another 8k. If we look at EB1 out of the promised 12K, 3K has not been allocated and the maximum additional over that we can expect cannot be more than 5K. Also another point to note is that the EB1 figures in the inventory are higher than ever. I believe most of them are concurrently filed cases the I140 approvals slowed down by the Kazarian memo. Also noteworthy is that the 2011 figures are lower than 2010. EB2 gave a spillover of 11.5K last year and usage seems to be down this year so expecting 8K may be very much possible.

[vijay226]

This analysis has 1 missing link that ~10K of spillover has already been applied so this would effectively push the dates to Apr 2007.



I think your analysis is a little harsh but realistic. No doubt EB5 will give another 8k. If we look at EB1 out of the promised 12K, 3K has not been allocated and the maximum additional over that we can expect cannot be more than 5K. Also another point to note is that the EB1 figures in the inventory are higher than ever. I believe most of them are concurrently filed cases the I140 approvals slowed down by the Kazarian memo. Also noteworthy is that the 2011 figures are lower than 2010. EB2 gave a spillover of 11.5K last year and usage seems to be down this year so expecting 8K may be very much possible.
Just wondering where is this spillover of eb1 10000 gone:

Assuming most of the eb1 spillover to eb2 goes to 2006 india /chine

china eb2:


oct 2010 demand: 5540
june 2011 demand: 3814
difference which gives china eb2 approvals so far: 1726


india eb2:

oct 2010 demand: 11524
june 2011 demand: 13,190

difference which gives india eb2 approvals so far: 1666


so far approvals eb2 india/china: 1726 + 1666 = 3392


I think eb1 to eb2 12,000 spill over will start from June. Please let me know if my assumtion is wrong

[snathan]

Just wondering where is this spillover of eb1 10000 gone:

Assuming most of the eb1 spillover to eb2 goes to 2006 india /chine

china eb2:


oct 2010 demand: 5540
june 2011 demand: 3814
difference which gives china eb2 approvals so far: 1726


india eb2:

oct 2010 demand: 11524
june 2011 demand: 13,190

difference which gives india eb2 approvals so far: 1666


so far approvals eb2 india/china: 1726 + 1666 = 3392


I think eb1 to eb2 12,000 spill over will start from June. Please let me know if my assumtion is wrong

Based on the spill over data, they have advanced the date to Oct 2006. But I am not sure if this demand data is reflecting that numbers....?

Teddy...any idea on this ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Just wondering where is this spillover of eb1 10000 gone:

Assuming most of the eb1 spillover to eb2 goes to 2006 india /chine

china eb2:


oct 2010 demand: 5540
june 2011 demand: 3814
difference which gives china eb2 approvals so far: 1726


india eb2:

oct 2010 demand: 11524
june 2011 demand: 13,190

difference which gives india eb2 approvals so far: 1666


so far approvals eb2 india/china: 1726 + 1666 = 3392


I think eb1 to eb2 12,000 spill over will start from June. Please let me know if my assumtion is wrong

Based on the spill over data, they have advanced the date to Oct 2006. But I am not sure if this demand data is reflecting that numbers....?

Teddy...any idea on this ?

Vijay thanks for clarifying and being so courteous I notice that you have also deducted the 12k from the EB1 projection as already consumed spillover I missed that. I believe that we maybe saying the same thing albeit differently. I think I misread your post.

When I said that that ~ 10K of spillover is consumed I meant till the point Oct 15th as per the june bulletin. So to your consumption you can add another 6.5K which is the I + C demand between 01-Jul-2008 and 15-Oct-2006. Now in addition 5.6K of I/C cap is also burn out so prior to the Jul bulletin essentially 15K numbers have been utilized. As per the inventory which is a recent snapshot only the May bulletin applies.

Total EB2 - I Inventory - 22536
Total EB2 - C Inventory - 9787

Demand post Oct 15th = (22536 + 9787-2109-7206) = 23K

This is fairly close to your figure of 21K. Now the USCIS inventory does not include the CP & Local office demand or any new porting so we can atleast approximate it to 24K, we are excluding the PWMB’s completely. So now the target for the next 3 months really is 24K out of which the 8K from EB5 is safe the remaining 16K from EB1 and EB2 is variable. It will really require the most optimistic scenario forEB1 and Eb2 to provide the 16K and overall for this to happen the SOFAD has to be 40K v/s 26.5K last year remember the cap last year was 150K v/s 140K this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends here are my thoughts about the inventory. It does not change things a great deal. The goal really is to get another 24K in the next 3 months. For that we must have atleast 8K worth of movement in Jul to 1st Feb 2007.

- EB1 inventory is higher than previous ones however note that the 2011 numbers are lower in most months than late 2010. Also the early 2010 numbers are in similar range as early 2011 assuming early 2010 cases would have seen approvals looks like EB1 demand is really down. Also note that most of the EB1 demand is from ROW countries.

- EB2 ROW numbers are quite low from 2011 indicating either the demand itself is less or the cases are seeing speedy approvals. Cases from 2008 to mid 2009 maybe from countries of interest and they normally take longer.

[snathan]

Vijay thanks for clarifying and being so courteous I notice that you have also deducted the 12k from the EB1 projection as already consumed spillover I missed that. I believe that we maybe saying the same thing albeit differently. I think I misread your post.

When I said that that ~ 10K of spillover is consumed I meant till the point Oct 15th as per the june bulletin. So to your consumption you can add another 6.5K which is the I + C demand between 01-Jul-2008 and 15-Oct-2006. Now in addition 5.6K of I/C cap is also burn out so prior to the Jul bulletin essentially 15K numbers have been utilized. As per the inventory which is a recent snapshot only the May bulletin applies.

Total EB2 - I Inventory - 22536
Total EB2 - C Inventory - 9787

Demand post Oct 15th = (22536 + 9787-2109-7206) = 23K
This is fairly close to your figure of 21K. Now the USCIS inventory does not include the CP & Local office demand or any new porting so we can atleast approximate it to 24K, we are excluding the PWMB’s completely. So now the target for the next 3 months really is 24K out of which the 8K from EB5 is safe the remaining 16K from EB1 and EB2 is variable. It will really require the most optimistic scenario forEB1 and Eb2 to provide the 16K and overall for this to happen the SOFAD has to be 40K v/s 26.5K last year remember the cap last year was 150K v/s 140K this year.

So the actual demand data is around 24K (Oct 2006 - jul 2007) and we are expecting 24K SOFAD... ? It would take the PD into july/Aug 2007 ?

[TeddyKoochu]

So the actual demand data is around 24K (Oct 2006 - jul 2007) and we are expecting 24K SOFAD... ? It would take the PD into july/Aug 2007 ?

Let me explain this in the most optimistic and extremely rosy scenario only this is possible. the realistic cuff date by Sep 2011 will be between Apr and May 2007.

- The 24K demand to be covered after Oct 15th excludes 6K PWMB. The time to approve PWMB cases is less this year now.

- EB1 needs to provide another 8K. It has provided 9K aleady, 3K from the promised 12K are left and another 5K is required. Last year the cap for EB1 was 43K and we got 1.5K SOFAD so last years consumoption was 41.5K 1.5K more than the regular cap itself. Now the current inventory has 9K plus EB1 cases so it would be a long stretch to get another 8K.

- EB2 ROW gave 11.5K last year I believe no SOFAD has come from EB2 ROW thus far however this year the cap is 3K less for EB2 as we are back to 40K regular cap. Since EB1 is getting tough ROW folks might use EB2 as a easier route if you look at the inventory most EB1 cases are ROW and EB3 ROW guys will also try to move to EB2 ROW. The Eb2ROW inventory is 8K plus right now with all this it might require a stretch for ROW to give its 8K.

So if we have everything to the most optimistic extent and add it in the most convenient manner then only the dates can reach 01-Aug-2007 otherwise that mark will be missed.

[rodnyb]

Teddy,

I agree that almost 90% PD will fall between Feb 2007 and Aug. 2007 for Sept 2011 VB.

EB1 so called 12K number will imply
1. More EB2 ROW, so it is a wash almost (EB1 India is 6K China 3K, so the crackdown of EB1 could cause ROW to apply EB2, which is Current anyway)
2. DOS has been using some EB1 numbers for EB2 already, reducing numbers that could be used in later months

ROW EB2 is dismal for EB2 I
1. EB1 ROW will apply EB2 ROW due to EB1 crack down
2. EB3 ROW is upgrading more than EB3 India

FB last year 10K is distributed by EB1 EB2 EB3 etc, so about 3K for EB2 and EB1, no significant impact

10% possibility to get over Aug. 1st, 2007 comes from the intent that DOS might have to take in more inventory/pipeline for next year (which need at least 20-30K for spillover season and considering CIS needs time to process and pre-adjudicate). However
1. PWMB could be significant
2. ROW EB1/2 ROW could be a lot
3. EB3 upgrade could be huge as dates move ahead

Overall, for EB2 India, adding 5 years to PD is realistic expectation even after July 2007.
One upside could be less China application.. I see dimishing trend on EB2/Eb3 China.


Let me explain this in the most optimistic and extremely rosy scenario only this is possible. the realistic cuff date by Sep 2011 will be between Apr and May 2007.

- The 24K demand to be covered after Oct 15th excludes 6K PWMB. The time to approve PWMB cases is less this year now.

- EB1 needs to provide another 8K. It has provided 9K aleady, 3K from the promised 12K are left and another 5K is required. Last year the cap for EB1 was 43K and we got 1.5K SOFAD so last years consumoption was 41.5K 1.5K more than the regular cap itself. Now the current inventory has 9K plus EB1 cases so it would be a long stretch to get another 8K.

- EB2 ROW gave 11.5K last year I believe no SOFAD has come from EB2 ROW thus far however this year the cap is 3K less for EB2 as we are back to 40K regular cap. Since EB1 is getting tough ROW folks might use EB2 as a easier route if you look at the inventory most EB1 cases are ROW and EB3 ROW guys will also try to move to EB2 ROW. The Eb2ROW inventory is 8K plus right now with all this it might require a stretch for ROW to give its 8K.

So if we have everything to the most optimistic extent and add it in the most convenient manner then only the dates can reach 01-Aug-2007 otherwise that mark will be missed.

[snathan]

Teddy,

I agree that almost 90% PD will fall between Feb 2007 and Aug. 2007 for Sept 2011 VB.

EB1 so called 12K number will imply
1. More EB2 ROW, so it is a wash almost (EB1 India is 6K China 3K, so the crackdown of EB1 could cause ROW to apply EB2, which is Current anyway)
2. DOS has been using some EB1 numbers for EB2 already, reducing numbers that could be used in later months

ROW EB2 is dismal for EB2 I
1. EB1 ROW will apply EB2 ROW due to EB1 crack down2. EB3 ROW is upgrading more than EB3 India

FB last year 10K is distributed by EB1 EB2 EB3 etc, so about 3K for EB2 and EB1, no significant impact

10% possibility to get over Aug. 1st, 2007 comes from the intent that DOS might have to take in more inventory/pipeline for next year (which need at least 20-30K for spillover season and considering CIS needs time to process and pre-adjudicate). However
1. PWMB could be significant
2. ROW EB1/2 ROW could be a lot
3. EB3 upgrade could be huge as dates move ahead

Overall, for EB2 India, adding 5 years to PD is realistic expectation even after July 2007.
One upside could be less China application.. I see dimishing trend on EB2/Eb3 China.

Why would they ever want to file in EB1 when the EB2 ROW was always current...? I dont see any reason other than to avoid the PERM process...?

[gc_vbin]

I was wondering on the same lines too. I too cannot think of a reason other than to avoid PERM process for them to apply in EB1...
Why would they ever want to file in EB1 when the EB2 ROW was always current...? I dont see any reason other than to avoid the PERM process...?

[vijay226]

when comparing the dos cutoff dates appears to be following some pattern:

2010:

july: 8 months (1 feb 05 to 1 oct 2005)
AUg : 5 months (1 oct 2005 to 1 march 2006)
sept: 2 months ( 1 march to 8th may 2006)



2011:
may: 2 months ( may 08 2006 to July 1st 2006)
june: 3 months (july 1st to oct 15th 2006)
July : 4 months (oct 15th 2006 to Feb 1st 2007) ?
Aug: 5 months (feb 1st 2007 to July 15th 2007) ?
sept: 6 months ( July 15th 2007 to Dec 1st 2007) ?

is above possible for July, Aug and Sept in order to pile up some inventory for next year?

[rodnyb]

Your logic is right. Those EB1 are mostly to avoid PERM and use ambiguous EB1 standard.
I thick CIS notice that too, and crack down EB1 ROW mostly, along with EB1 India/China


Why would they ever want to file in EB1 when the EB2 ROW was always current...? I dont see any reason other than to avoid the PERM process...?

[TeddyKoochu]

when comparing the dos cutoff dates appears to be following some pattern:

2010:

july: 8 months (1 feb 05 to 1 oct 2005)
AUg : 5 months (1 oct 2005 to 1 march 2006)
sept: 2 months ( 1 march to 8th may 2006)



2011:
may: 2 months ( may 08 2006 to July 1st 2006)
june: 3 months (july 1st to oct 15th 2006)
July : 4 months (oct 15th 2006 to Feb 1st 2007) ?
Aug: 5 months (feb 1st 2007 to July 15th 2007) ?
sept: 6 months ( July 15th 2007 to Dec 1st 2007) ?

is above possible for July, Aug and Sept in order to pile up some inventory for next year?

In 2010 the movement in terms of numbers was 6-7K every month 2005 was very lean in terms offilings that is why the difference looks large in terms of months. It has to be 8K each in the next 3 bulletins to make it reach 01-Aug-2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

Your logic is right. Those EB1 are mostly to avoid PERM and use ambiguous EB1 standard.
I thick CIS notice that too, and crack down EB1 ROW mostly, along with EB1 India/China

By the statistics half of EB1 filings are in EB1-C. Now if we look at the numbers on the inventory or otherwise most of it comes from ROW countries not India and China. Last Year EB1-I got 6K so ~3K may have been EB1-C. You can imagine ~ 15K may have been ROW EB1C. So this idea that only India IT companies are filing EB1C is not correct. There could be several reasons why these folks file in EB1 a) There is no minimum educational qualification b) No perm actually saves both time and money c) There are no salary requirements d) The criteria for multinational manager is very objective in the sense that if one has been a manager outside of US for a year and currently a manager its good enough if the company is ok. The Kazarian memo crackdown is on EB1 A and B only so if they in theory come down to 10K and EB1C stays at 20K then we get only 10K from EB1, we should be cognizant to the fact that we have already got this so any further spillover from EB1 will be hard to come by it can only come if EB1C enforcement is strong or filings are down. I heard that org chart RFE’s are on the rise, real regulation can only happen if they restrict it to those whose org chart has more than 100 people this way even the onsite coordinators or leads managing just 3-4 people get excluded. Another criteria as was discussed few posts back was that the person should be one of the C’s (CEO, CFO, COO) or EVP (In US even VP is a very common grade) from a significant revenue company. With the current criteria for EB1-C its very easy to work around it even if there is a RFE.

[bonobocobra]

Vijay,

Thanks a bunch for your analysis. I have a few open questions here.

Let's assume 100% of the demand is satisfied by Sept. i.e PD becomes Jul 07. At that point, the future demand data is absent or minimal. Do you think the PD will move by 6 months or 8 months to collect data and process I-485's and then retrogress to Jul'07 ?

In fact even if PD hits to like Apr/May 07, I still think there is a possibility of dates moving forward just to collect demand data and start processing applications.

K


when comparing the dos cutoff dates appears to be following some pattern:

2010:

july: 8 months (1 feb 05 to 1 oct 2005)
AUg : 5 months (1 oct 2005 to 1 march 2006)
sept: 2 months ( 1 march to 8th may 2006)



2011:
may: 2 months ( may 08 2006 to July 1st 2006)
june: 3 months (july 1st to oct 15th 2006)
July : 4 months (oct 15th 2006 to Feb 1st 2007) ?
Aug: 5 months (feb 1st 2007 to July 15th 2007) ?
sept: 6 months ( July 15th 2007 to Dec 1st 2007) ?

is above possible for July, Aug and Sept in order to pile up some inventory for next year?

[gc_vbin]

I think it will be interesting to see how DOS will act when they hit the Jul 2007 mark. Ideally in order to not waste potential spillover visa numbers next year they will need to build a pipeline of about 30K and preadjudicate applications for usage during the next spillover season. Lets wait and watch...
Vijay,

Thanks a bunch for your analysis. I have a few open questions here.

Let's assume 100% of the demand is satisfied by Sept. i.e PD becomes Jul 07. At that point, the future demand data is absent or minimal. Do you think the PD will move by 6 months or 8 months to collect data and process I-485's and then retrogress to Jul'07 ?

In fact even if PD hits to like Apr/May 07, I still think there is a possibility of dates moving forward just to collect demand data and start processing applications.

K

[snathan]

By the statistics half of EB1 filings are in EB1-C. Now if we look at the numbers on the inventory or otherwise most of it comes from ROW countries not India and China. Last Year EB1-I got 6K so ~3K may have been EB1-C. You can imagine ~ 15K may have been ROW EB1C. So this idea that only India IT companies are filing EB1C is not correct. There could be several reasons why these folks file in EB1 a) There is no minimum educational qualification b) No perm actually saves both time and money c) There are no salary requirements d) The criteria for multinational manager is very objective in the sense that if one has been a manager outside of US for a year and currently a manager its good enough if the company is ok. The Kazarian memo crackdown is on EB1 A and B only so if they in theory come down to 10K and EB1C stays at 20K then we get only 10K from EB1, we should be cognizant to the fact that we have already got this so any further spillover from EB1 will be hard to come by it can only come if EB1C enforcement is strong or filings are down. I heard that org chart RFE’s are on the rise, real regulation can only happen if they restrict it to those whose org chart has more than 100 people this way even the onsite coordinators or leads managing just 3-4 people get excluded. Another criteria as was discussed few posts back was that the person should be one of the C’s (CEO, CFO, COO) or EVP (In US even VP is a very common grade) from a significant revenue company. With the current criteria for EB1-C its very easy to work around it even if there is a RFE.

Next year we may not see this many SOFAD from EB1 and EB2 ROW. The EB2 ROW people used to file in EB1 to avoid the PERM and related process. Since the crackdown started this year, they are not filing in EB1 and we are getting huge SOFAD. But they all might be filing in EB2 ROW which is current, the but PERM might take anywhere 4-8 months. So every one who getts the PERM approved this year might apply for the I-485 next year and eat all the EB1 spill over.

[cbpds]

Its becoming clear that the PD for Sept bulletin may be around May 2007, so given this scenario ,
1. Will DOS push the PD post Aug 2007 to get the new filings
2.If yes to #1, till what date will it push to satisfy the 20K buffer it needs
3.If No to #1, how will DOS get the new applications for next year, does it mean that they do not require new filings?
4.What is the probablity that folks in 2008 will get to file the EAD if the numbers dry up till May 2007?

Thanks

[coldcloud]

Next year we may not see this many SOFAD from EB1 and EB2 ROW. The EB2 ROW people used to file in EB1 to avoid the PERM and related process. Since the crackdown started this year, they are not filing in EB1 and we are getting huge SOFAD. But they all might be filing in EB2 ROW which is current, the but PERM might take anywhere 4-8 months. So every one who getts the PERM approved this year might apply for the I-485 next year and eat all the EB1 spill over.

snathan, I might be wrong, but spill over goes by PD and not by country, i.e., if a applicant from India with an older PD is waiting in EB2I then that applicant will be processed before ROW, Isn't that correct?

[GCHope2011]

Next year we may not see this many SOFAD from EB1 and EB2 ROW. The EB2 ROW people used to file in EB1 to avoid the PERM and related process. Since the crackdown started this year, they are not filing in EB1 and we are getting huge SOFAD. But they all might be filing in EB2 ROW which is current, the but PERM might take anywhere 4-8 months. So every one who getts the PERM approved this year might apply for the I-485 next year and eat all the EB1 spill over.
Your hunch about increased utilization of EB2 ROW, if right, will lead to a reduction of EB2ROW spillover to EB2-IC. It will also imply a reduction in EB1 usage, increasing the EB1 spillover.

The utilization of spillover is strictly by priority date, so IC will continue to move forward, if at all spillover happens.

[snathan]

Your hunch about increased utilization of EB2 ROW, if right, will lead to a reduction of EB2ROW spillover to EB2-IC. It will also imply a reduction in EB1 usage, increasing the EB1 spillover.

The utilization of spillover is strictly by priority date, so IC will continue to move forward, if at all spillover happens.

Good to know that; in that case, we might get the same number of SOFAD from EB1 next year as well. So we can expect the USCIS/DOS to advance the date significantly in this FY, to build the pipeline.

[buddyforgc]

With all these analysis and if it goes to Apr/Aug 2007 by this September, what about new quote that should release during October 2011 as new fiscal year starts? Teddy - any idea?

[dontcareaboutGC]

With all these analysis and if it goes to Apr/Aug 2007 by this September, what about new quote that should release during October 2011 as new fiscal year starts? Teddy - any idea?
DOS can be conservative or open the gates or take in applications for a year forward. This is a huge unknown about their actions-

[gc_on_demand]

DOS can be conservative or open the gates or take in applications for a year forward. This is a huge unknown about their actions-

There is no law to build a pipeline for next year at the same time not building a pipeline can hurt next year's spill over quota.

Now its clear that all pending pre adjudicated including dist offices are 21 - 22 k. I think DOS has more visas than that almost 24-25 k. Since NVC cases are very less almost 1 % of employment based cases. Those extra 3k visas will allow DOS to move forward date into mid 2008 to consume them.

This way DOS can utilize almost all visas via USCIS + NVC and at the same time they can move forward dates so USCIS can build pipeline.

This way DOS is not breaking any law or not helping USCIS to build pipeline. They are simply following supply demand rule and that way it will create a pipeline.

Also I think DOS is going to make that date in July bulletin so NVC gets 2 months to consume them. Since NVC needs to setup appointment and they do at least 4- 6 weeks in advance so they need date current for 2 months. Date can stay up to Mid 2008 in august too. later in Sep 2011 , based on consumption date will retro. ( It may not not retro back to early 2007 but can retro up to later 2007 ( Oct - Dec 2007) ) In Oct date will move back to Early - Mid 2007.


Next year it will start from July 2007 and same thing will continue for 2009 cases.

[stemcell]

There is no law to build a pipeline for next year at the same time not building a pipeline can hurt next year's spill over quota.

Now its clear that all pending pre adjudicated including dist offices are 21 - 22 k. I think DOS has more visas than that almost 24-25 k. Since NVC cases are very less almost 1 % of employment based cases. Those extra 3k visas will allow DOS to move forward date into mid 2008 to consume them.

This way DOS can utilize almost all visas via USCIS + NVC and at the same time they can move forward dates so USCIS can build pipeline.

This way DOS is not breaking any law or not helping USCIS to build pipeline. They are simply following supply demand rule and that way it will create a pipeline.

Also I think DOS is going to make that date in July bulletin so NVC gets 2 months to consume them. Since NVC needs to setup appointment and they do at least 4- 6 weeks in advance so they need date current for 2 months. Date can stay up to Mid 2008 in august too. later in Sep 2011 , based on consumption date will retro. ( It may not not retro back to early 2007 but can retro up to later 2007 ( Oct - Dec 2007) ) In Oct date will move back to Early - Mid 2007.


Next year it will start from July 2007 and same thing will continue for 2009 cases.




Man i wish DOS follows this. Letting folks file 485 is a lot to start with at least .......I will treat you with some good kebabs and scotch if your prediction comes true....

[dontcareaboutGC]

Man i wish DOS follows this. Letting folks file 485 is a lot to start with at least .......I will treat you with some good kebabs and scotch if your prediction comes true....
The only thing we can predict with certainity is the unpredictability of DOS/ CIS !!

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Its becoming clear that the PD for Sept bulletin may be around May 2007, so given this scenario ,
1. Will DOS push the PD post Aug 2007 to get the new filings
2.If yes to #1, till what date will it push to satisfy the 20K buffer it needs
3.If No to #1, how will DOS get the new applications for next year, does it mean that they do not require new filings?
4.What is the probablity that folks in 2008 will get to file the EAD if the numbers dry up till May 2007?

Thanks

I seriously beleive that they will make the PD for EB2-I C once all the demand till Jul-2007 will be utilized.

[TeddyKoochu]

With all these analysis and if it goes to Apr/Aug 2007 by this September, what about new quote that should release during October 2011 as new fiscal year starts? Teddy - any idea?

Refer to the post by gc_on_demand he has outlined it very well. There is really no law that warrants for creation of a pipeline but yes in the interest of fair play and intention to follow the trend it must be created. My guess is that it will be created earliest by the Sep bulletin or latest by Q2 2012.

[gc_on_demand]

Refer to the post by gc_on_demand he has outlined it very well. There is really no law that warrants for creation of a pipeline but yes in the interest of fair play and intention to follow the trend it must be created. My guess is that it will be created earliest by the Sep bulletin or latest by Q2 2012.

In first three quarters supply is very limited. 2800 and if they move date will May - June 2007 this year end then there will be more than 2800 cases for PWMB and Porting. In that case demand will be higher than supply and they can't move dates.

So it will move by end of year. Why I think in July is because if they want NVC to utilize numbers and if NVC has just started to send out fee email notices then it will need date current for July - August to schedules interview with consulates.

In Sep they can sum up all available demand and retro dates.

[TeddyKoochu]

In first three quarters supply is very limited. 2800 and if they move date will May - June 2007 this year end then there will be more than 2800 cases for PWMB and Porting. In that case demand will be higher than supply and they can't move dates.

So it will move by end of year. Why I think in July is because if they want NVC to utilize numbers and if NVC has just started to send out fee email notices then it will need date current for July - August to schedules interview with consulates.

In Sep they can sum up all available demand and retro dates.

I was saying with respect to the following scenario. Lets say that this year ends at 01-May-2011 which will be ~ 35K SOFAD. Now they will be ultra conservative thinking that the EB1 ROW and EB1 demand may pick up next year so end of Q2 2012 i.e 01-Apr-2012 should virtually be the latest date by which they should take up the new demand else it maybe late to adjudicate the new cases. Definitely it would be great if they could do it in FY 2011 and provide EAD / AP to all atleast upto Q1 2008 (Iam inclined to this point because NVC notices have also been received that far).

[skpanda]

Amen to that buddy!

I seriously beleive that they will make the PD for EB2-I C once all the demand till Jul-2007 will be utilized.

[h1_b_visa_holder]

I was saying with respect to the following scenario. Lets say that this year ends at 01-May-2011 which will be ~ 35K SOFAD. Now they will be ultra conservative thinking that the EB1 ROW and EB1 demand may pick up next year so end of Q2 2012 i.e 01-Apr-2012 should virtually be the latest date by which they should take up the new demand else it maybe late to adjudicate the new cases. Definitely it would be great if they could do it in FY 2011 and provide EAD / AP to all atleast upto Q1 2008 (Iam inclined to this point because NVC notices have also been received that far).

If they move the date by one year, you and I know that there will be enough applications for Eb2-I that no visas will be wasted. But there is no official count by uscis. The only available documentation is the PERM with which getting an accurate demand is not possible.

Thus, it would be wrog on their part to not make the date C and build demand. Again, we are all trying to predict here and we do not know what information or mindset do the people at USCIS have. I think USCIS will make pretty much the same amount of money if people are on H1 or on EAD/AP. I am certain that they do not think of how much revenue they will generate if they make dates C. If that was the case, they might have done an admin fix for giving EADs after filing I-140.

So, one thing is sure that USCIS must be following a process or a guideline on how and when to make dates C or how to move dates forward. Based on the previous history, they have made dates Current and then retrogressed several times. (Source: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf). The only thing different now is that demand is higher now versus it was lower in the 90s and early 2000s, hence we saw dates getting C and then retrogressing more frequently (within a few months to a couple of years). Now with higher demands, the cycle still stays but the period of getting to C has increased to 5-7 years.

Another reason why I strongly think they will make it C is that my PD is 2009. :D I badly need EAD/AP.

I could be wrong, and USCIS may decided to move dates in increment of 3 months, 6 months or 1 year, unless they get some damand. If they follow to do so, then most likely people with PD 2008, 09,10,11 dates will get EAD later, but GC will be within a year of EAD. If they make it C now, atleaset everyone gets EAD and they wait for GC. In either case GC will take the same amount of time. The question is when will we get EAD?

[PrinceVA]

Can someone help me to understand what is NVC ? and saw some ppl with PD as late 2007 getting that. could not get more info on internet.
and basically what does that mean? If a guy with late 2007 PD gets NVC, means he is expected to get current soon ?
Do they send this to everyone or few only ? Cause I did not get it :D.

Thank You,

[dontcareaboutGC]

Can someone help me to understand what is NVC ? and saw some ppl with PD as late 2007 getting that. could not get more info on internet.
and basically what does that mean? If a guy with late 2007 PD gets NVC, means he is expected to get current soon ?
Do they send this to everyone or few only ? Cause I did not get it :D.

Thank You,
NVC stands for National Visa Center. It can be considered as a point where in all information about Consular processing is fed into.

Usually when people select CP as their preferred method give or take 6- 9 months before their dates become current they recieve emails indicating payment of fees. In the past the latest NVC date for EB- India will provide a good idea in regards to what date movement could usually be expected.

If a person with a late 2007 NVC Date gets a email asking for payment of fees then it will indicate that the consulate is getting ready to interview him/ her and prepare for providing the applicant with a GC.

You may not have gotten it because your lawyer did not select CP as a option. Please refer to some of the previous pages- a little discussion was done.

Hope this helps.

[dontcareaboutGC]

If they move the date by one year, you and I know that there will be enough applications for Eb2-I that no visas will be wasted. But there is no official count by uscis. The only available documentation is the PERM with which getting an accurate demand is not possible.

Thus, it would be wrog on their part to not make the date C and build demand. Again, we are all trying to predict here and we do not know what information or mindset do the people at USCIS have. I think USCIS will make pretty much the same amount of money if people are on H1 or on EAD/AP. I am certain that they do not think of how much revenue they will generate if they make dates C. If that was the case, they might have done an admin fix for giving EADs after filing I-140.

So, one thing is sure that USCIS must be following a process or a guideline on how and when to make dates C or how to move dates forward. Based on the previous history, they have made dates Current and then retrogressed several times. (Source: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf). The only thing different now is that demand is higher now versus it was lower in the 90s and early 2000s, hence we saw dates getting C and then retrogressing more frequently (within a few months to a couple of years). Now with higher demands, the cycle still stays but the period of getting to C has increased to 5-7 years.

Another reason why I strongly think they will make it C is that my PD is 2009. :D I badly need EAD/AP.

I could be wrong, and USCIS may decided to move dates in increment of 3 months, 6 months or 1 year, unless they get some damand. If they follow to do so, then most likely people with PD 2008, 09,10,11 dates will get EAD later, but GC will be within a year of EAD. If they make it C now, atleaset everyone gets EAD and they wait for GC. In either case GC will take the same amount of time. The question is when will we get EAD?
DOS sets the date with consulations from Consulates and USCIS and not USCIS. DOS with all the data provided by CIS and Consulates has a good estimate of where the dates need to be and will do so conservatively so as to ensure a sufficient pipeline- even though there is no law indicating that they have to have a full pipeline....however with the increase in transparency lately and accountability combined with public pressure I think they will take the appropriate steps in advancing the dates so as to ensure that no visa's are wasted in case they have a 8k spillover each month starting this month as Teddy indicated in his previous posts!

[PrinceVA]

NVC stands for National Visa Center. It can be considered as a point where in all information about Consular processing is fed into.

Usually when people select CP as their preferred method give or take 6- 9 months before their dates become current they recieve emails indicating payment of fees. In the past the latest NVC date for EB- India will provide a good idea in regards to what date movement could usually be expected.

If a person with a late 2007 NVC Date gets a email asking for payment of fees then it will indicate that the consulate is getting ready to interview him/ her and prepare for providing the applicant with a GC.

You may not have gotten it because your lawyer did not select CP as a option. Please refer to some of the previous pages- a little discussion was done.

Hope this helps.

It does. Thank You.

[cjain]

teddy,

quick question on the inventory stats - if the current PD is Oct. 2010, why do the stats show thousands of people prior to that PD in the inventory stats?

thanks!

[ambals03]

Will any of the above predictions change, given that USCIS release their new inventory on May 26, 2011 ? Even though it says the inventory is as of June 2011, I believe it is as of may 15, 2011 or earlier.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

[dontcareaboutGC]

Will any of the above predictions change, given that USCIS release their new inventory on May 26, 2011 ? Even though it says the inventory is as of June 2011, I believe it is as of may 15, 2011 or earlier.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf
I dont think there would be any significant change...

[skpanda]

Will any of the above predictions change, given that USCIS release their new inventory on May 26, 2011 ? Even though it says the inventory is as of June 2011, I believe it is as of may 15, 2011 or earlier.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

I think the numbers are in lines with what everybody expected. A point to note is there are quite a few (8K i think) pending numbers in EB2 ROW. Out of which about 4K are in 2010. As a friend of mine in another forum noted, USCIS may not be in great hurry to approve those pending ones. That to me means we can get good 6 to 8K spillover from EB2 ROW.

Hope for the best!

[vdlrao]

I am expecting that there's going to be a movement for EB2 I&C in Jul'2011 bulletin and this movement would be a critical.

[dontcareaboutGC]

I am expecting that there's going to be a movement for EB2 I&C in Jul'2011 bulletin and this movement would be a critical.
The movement will be critical to what? further movement or flood gates?

[skpanda]

If DOS moves the dates beyond July 2007 (to say a date in 2008) in July or Aug 2010 VBs, then there is NO chance that they will make the dates current for EB2IC.

But if they move steadily as below -

July 10 VB - Jan/Feb 2007
Aug 10 VB - Apr/May 2007

There is a bleak chance of making EB2IC current in Sept 10 VB. Otherwise... endless wait for GC (atleast EAD) continues!


I am expecting that there's going to be a movement for EB2 I&C in Jul'2011 bulletin and this movement would be a critical.

[TeddyKoochu]

I am expecting that there's going to be a movement for EB2 I&C in Jul'2011 bulletin and this movement would be a critical.

The dates in the Jul bulletin Iam hoping will be between 01-Feb-2007 to 01-Mar-2007, ~8K movement would come in this range.

[dontcareaboutGC]

The dates in the Jul bulletin Iam hoping will be between 01-Feb-2007 to 01-Mar-2007, ~8K movement would come in this range.
Same here....I am hoping for atleast 20 K additional SOFAD- Anything over will get us VERY close to July 07. For that to happen we need atleast 8 K give or take every bulletin starting this one!

[snathan]

I was saying with respect to the following scenario. Lets say that this year ends at 01-May-2011 which will be ~ 35K SOFAD. Now they will be ultra conservative thinking that the EB1 ROW and EB1 demand may pick up next year so end of Q2 2012 i.e 01-Apr-2012 should virtually be the latest date by which they should take up the new demand else it maybe late to adjudicate the new cases. Definitely it would be great if they could do it in FY 2011 and provide EAD / AP to all atleast upto Q1 2008 (Iam inclined to this point because NVC notices have also been received that far).

I think, Apr 2012 would be too late...

[h1_b_visa_holder]

If DOS moves the dates beyond July 2007 (to say a date in 2008) in July or Aug 2010 VBs, then there is NO chance that they will make the dates current for EB2IC.

But if they move steadily as below -

July 10 VB - Jan/Feb 2007
Aug 10 VB - Apr/May 2007

There is a bleak chance of making EB2IC current in Sept 10 VB. Otherwise... endless wait for GC (atleast EAD) continues!

You are absolutely correct in your analysis. Wonder who found your post unhelpful :confused:

[belmontboy]

The dates in the Jul bulletin Iam hoping will be between 01-Feb-2007 to 01-Mar-2007, ~8K movement would come in this range.

I don't think 24k spillover will be equally divided into 3 months.
It will be more of 60-70% first month and the rest subsequent months.

I am hoping, july 2011 VB to have EB2-I in the range of may 2007 - july 2007

[vijay226]

I don't think 24k spillover will be equally divided into 3 months.
It will be more of 60-70% first month and the rest subsequent months.

I am hoping, july 2011 VB to have EB2-I in the range of may 2007 - july 2007
I believe that is the statergy DOS followed in 2010 and 2009. July VB certainly going to give us some feedback.

[forever_waiting]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)

[belmontboy]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)

according to you, if one plays lottery and does not win, then that would make lottery a scam?
huh?

predictions can be right or wrong. A wrong won't make it a bogus

[h1_b_visa_holder]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)

Whats your prediction?

[MacX]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)
I think friends from each group mentioned want the dates to move and they are hoping for it. I think there is nothing wrong in doing so. Basically they are putting the hopes as predictions..

As you mentioned few other guys who are doing real predictions are doing a great job. They actually use numbers rather than just put their hopes as predictions..

But we definetly need different ideas. Together we we all are going to be fine.
-Mac

[forever_waiting]

my prediction is that all the bogus predictions will be wrong :)

Whats your prediction?

[vijay226]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)
Remember… hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

[forever_waiting]

Wow I seem to have hit a nerve there.
Keep predicting my friend..I am not against anyone doing it. I am just stating a fact. The basic assumptions and outline stated by Teddy and the few folks who know what they are talking about..should stay put and we can consider those as numbers we can bank our hopes on.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry randomly predicting every possible scenario out there is just a waste of everyone's time.

according to you, if one plays lottery and does not win, then that would make lottery a scam?
huh?

predictions can be right or wrong. A wrong won't make it a bogus

[dontcareaboutGC]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)
This thread is by no means designed to truely "predict" the date of movement. It is purely meant to provide visibility to a highly complex, at times obscure, vague and reasonably invisible process.

It is meant to provide some picture in regards to what to expect and a range of time perhaps to assist people who are waiting on making certain decisions.

Under no circumstances should this be considered as 100% accurate since we are estimating based on many known factors and certain assumptions and it is exactly these assumptions that can lead us astray and crash the predictions...

[belmontboy]

Wow I seem to have hit a nerve there.
Keep predicting my friend..I am not against anyone doing it. I am just stating a fact. The basic assumptions and outline stated by Teddy and the few folks who know what they are talking about..should stay put and we can consider those as numbers we can bank our hopes on.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry randomly predicting every possible scenario out there is just a waste of everyone's time.

Only one who can really talk about date movement is DOS and they ain't gonna do it.
Until then, what we can do is - predict/guess

I understand few members are crunching numbers and arriving at conclusions. No offense to those folks.
However given the random behavior of DOS and USCIS, they are not even sure they would be right. So everybody's guess is as good as their's

If you really understand the problem we are trying to address, your comments would show little more appreciation to the folks who contribute to this thread.

[vijay226]

I just came across this:

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245

[belmontboy]

...

[rahul2699]

Apart from the 1-2 key folks here who have done all the number crunching (Teddy et.al), all the remaining "predictions" are completely bogus and a waste of time.
People with july-oct 2007 PDs are predicting dates will just move into late 2007 and no flood gates will open.
people with 2008 PDs will predict all scenarios that will make flood gates open just enough to go into 2008.
people with 2009 and later PDs will predict that flood are definitely going to open this aug/sep visa bulletin.
Any other suggestions?
:)

regardless everyone want their date to be current so they can skip the hurdles and there is nothing wrong with that after all USCIS/DOS is uncertain themselves...Being hopeful is the only way to get through this pain though

[MacX]

Now lets wait for July bulletin. As lots of members mentioned it will give good idea to predict rest of the for Q4.

-Mac

[frostrated]

If DOS moves the dates beyond July 2007 (to say a date in 2008) in July or Aug 2010 VBs, then there is NO chance that they will make the dates current for EB2IC.

But if they move steadily as below -

July 10 VB - Jan/Feb 2007
Aug 10 VB - Apr/May 2007

There is a bleak chance of making EB2IC current in Sept 10 VB. Otherwise... endless wait for GC (atleast EAD) continues!

At best, at the end of this fiscal year, the dates will move to just shy of end of 2007 calendar year. There are many I-140 applications that have been filed between Aug 2007 and Dec 2007, which far exceeds the supply (7% country cap) for the new year. It will not be until mid 2012 that we will see them moving the dates to increase the applications to adjudicate against the available visa that they can issue. They might also delay the movement of dates, so as to allow the numbers to spill over for EB3 utilization.

[skpanda]

At best, at the end of this fiscal year, the dates will move to just shy of end of 2007 calendar year. There are many I-140 applications that have been filed between Aug 2007 and Dec 2007, which far exceeds the supply (7% country cap) for the new year. It will not be until mid 2012 that we will see them moving the dates to increase the applications to adjudicate against the available visa that they can issue.

Possible. We can only guess/predict what DOS will do in future. I think even DOS may not be able to say for sure what they want to do in future.

They might also delay the movement of dates, so as to allow the numbers to spill over for EB3 utilization.

Again.. DOS can do what ever they want. EB3 could really use some extra visa numbers. It is toooo backlogged. However for some reason I am confident that if they want to use Spillover for EB3, they will need have to make EB2 current. It will be difficult to digest that there are pople in EB2 eligible to file I485 while spillover is assigned to EB3.


All the best..
S

[vbkris77]

At best, at the end of this fiscal year, the dates will move to just shy of end of 2007 calendar year. There are many I-140 applications that have been filed between Aug 2007 and Dec 2007, which far exceeds the supply (7% country cap) for the new year. It will not be until mid 2012 that we will see them moving the dates to increase the applications to adjudicate against the available visa that they can issue. They might also delay the movement of dates, so as to allow the numbers to spill over for EB3 utilization.

Not to go right at you or anything.. but it is kind of funny how people predict the movement to a situation that best suits them.. It probably applies to me also..

Every one wants to get out of the mess, and no one cares for the rest...

[ravi.shah]

Not to go right at you or anything.. but it is kind of funny how people predict the movement to a situation that best suits them.. It probably applies to me also..

Every one wants to get out of the mess, and no one cares for the rest...

Yep :) So true....

[vijay226]

Looks like all automated for preadjucated cases,approvals are coming fast.Already saw some approvals for June VB coming in.

[EBX-Man]

At best, at the end of this fiscal year, the dates will move to just shy of end of 2007 calendar year. There are many I-140 applications that have been filed between Aug 2007 and Dec 2007, which far exceeds the supply (7% country cap) for the new year. It will not be until mid 2012 that we will see them moving the dates to increase the applications to adjudicate against the available visa that they can issue. They might also delay the movement of dates, so as to allow the numbers to spill over for EB3 utilization.

Yes i read on another site that since it takes 3-4 months for a app to be processed completely, what CIS might do is assign visa to all preadjudicated EB2 apps and the remaining spillover will spillover to EB3. The argument in that forum was whether the spillover will go to EB3 ROW or to EB3 I first.

[Caliber]

EB3 - I total (Jun Inventory) = 57119
EB3- I total (Jan Inventory) = 58440
Nett Reduction = 1321


Last year too EB3 got only 2300 Visas. Looks like this year, we may get less than 2000 even.

[vbkris77]

Last year too EB3 got only 2300 Visas. Looks like this year, we may get less than 2000 even.

EB3 I Got 2,856 from AOS alone last year.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

[Caliber]

EB3 I Got 2,856 from AOS alone last year.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

Sorry, it was my mistake about year. I am talking about 2008-09

[rag1232]

My best bet would be to reach December 2006 or Jan 2007 max for July 2011 VB. Any thoughts or suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Nandu

[gaz]

I was talking to a few colleagues of mine who're in eb3 but are porting to eb2 (4 people) - as they started off as developers but are now managers. Without exception each one has got some kind of inquiry on their case and are actually now regretting porting to eb2 (which is sad because they do deserve to be in eb2 based on their job and skills) - and now others who are eligible to port to eb2 are thinking of waiting it out rather than taking a chance. I don't know if this is the general trend, or these guys are just unlucky.

Questions -
1)are these guys in no-mans land - neither eb3 or eb2? if their dates in eb3 get current could they still get approved? is there a solution to their predicament?
2) If this is the trend, does this impact dates/predictions in any way - i recall reading that there weren't too many people porting at this time so am thinking it won't make a difference?

[snathan]

I was talking to a few colleagues of mine who're in eb3 but are porting to eb2 (4 people) - as they started off as developers but are now managers. Without exception each one has got some kind of inquiry on their case and are actually now regretting porting to eb2 (which is sad because they do deserve to be in eb2 based on their job and skills) - and now others who are eligible to port to eb2 are thinking of waiting it out rather than taking a chance. I don't know if this is the general trend, or these guys are just unlucky.

Questions -
1)are these guys in no-mans land - neither eb3 or eb2? if their dates in eb3 get current could they still get approved? is there a solution to their predicament?
2) If this is the trend, does this impact dates/predictions in any way - i recall reading that there weren't too many people porting at this time so am thinking it won't make a difference?

porting do not have any/minimal impact on the EB2 so far...I dont think any easy solutions once you get the RFE or audit started.

[EBX-Man]

I was talking to a few colleagues of mine who're in eb3 but are porting to eb2 (4 people) - as they started off as developers but are now managers. Without exception each one has got some kind of inquiry on their case and are actually now regretting porting to eb2 (which is sad because they do deserve to be in eb2 based on their job and skills) - and now others who are eligible to port to eb2 are thinking of waiting it out rather than taking a chance. I don't know if this is the general trend, or these guys are just unlucky.

Questions -
1)are these guys in no-mans land - neither eb3 or eb2? if their dates in eb3 get current could they still get approved? is there a solution to their predicament?
2) If this is the trend, does this impact dates/predictions in any way - i recall reading that there weren't too many people porting at this time so am thinking it won't make a difference?

I think the outcome of porting is based on a number of factors such as job desc, job requirement, educational qualification, experience and others. No one can accurately predict whether your porting case will be approved or will have issues. Everything is on case to case basis. If you feel that you have a good case and your lawyer confirms then go for porting. Outcome of a few cases like stated by you should not be deterent to other EB3 who want to port since as i said every case is different and for every 4 porting cases that have issues i can show 40 porting cases which were succesfull and approved within 6 months.

[gcwait2007]

I was talking to a few colleagues of mine who're in eb3 but are porting to eb2 (4 people) - as they started off as developers but are now managers. Without exception each one has got some kind of inquiry on their case and are actually now regretting porting to eb2 (which is sad because they do deserve to be in eb2 based on their job and skills) - and now others who are eligible to port to eb2 are thinking of waiting it out rather than taking a chance. I don't know if this is the general trend, or these guys are just unlucky.

Questions -
1)are these guys in no-mans land - neither eb3 or eb2? if their dates in eb3 get current could they still get approved? is there a solution to their predicament?
2) If this is the trend, does this impact dates/predictions in any way - i recall reading that there weren't too many people porting at this time so am thinking it won't make a difference?

I guess you are talking about a company that starts with "I". I know one of the so many guys (more than 4) got approved in EB3, when his date became current as per EB3 Cutoff dates announced in VB. So I believe that their EB3 continues, despite the query and unable to port to EB2. Despite being in the job role of managers, senior managers and directors, I also feel that USCIS primarily looks into their qualifications for making them to be eligible under EB2.

[pappu]

EB3 I Got 2,856 from AOS alone last year.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf
Correct. And 2,856 is more than the yearly quota of 2300.
Not sure what's the confusion for EB3 is about?
EB3 I cannot be expecting 19,961 or even 6,741 that EB2 and EB1 India got. It is not possible within the current law. If EB3I needs more than 2300, it will need change of law. And for change of law, EB3 I needs to come to DC for advocacy days in large number. There is no shortcut solution for EB3I unfortunately. This category is badly backlogged and current law has extremely limited avenues for any relief or possibilities of lawsuit for any relief. EB2 India dates will continue to advance significantly in the coming months and it is due to the current law and its interpretation. The current spillover rules benefit the most backlogged countries and that is India and China. If more relief is sought, then EB3India needs to roll up their sleeves and participate more actively in advocacy. This means meeting their local lawmakers regularly every couple of months, coming to DC for meetings. Each state chapter can also organize advocacy days in DC for their chapter members. The biggest relief can come from fixes like recapture or country limit removal for which each individual stuck in the mess needs to take active role. Without that, this problem is not going to go away anytime soon. Next year is election year and after getting elected the president is not expected to push for any relief bill.

[snathan]

Correct. And 2,856 is more than the yearly quota of 2300.
Not sure what's the confusion for EB3 is about?
EB3 I cannot be expecting 19,961 or even 6,741 that EB2 and EB1 India got. It is not possible within the current law. If EB3I needs more than 2300, it will need change of law. And for change of law, EB3 I needs to come to DC for advocacy days in large number. There is no shortcut solution for EB3I unfortunately. This category is badly backlogged and current law has extremely limited avenues for any relief or possibilities of lawsuit for any relief. EB2 India dates will continue to advance significantly in the coming months and it is due to the current law and its interpretation. The current spillover rules benefit the most backlogged countries and that is India and China. If more relief is sought, then EB3India needs to roll up their sleeves and participate more actively in advocacy. This means meeting their local lawmakers regularly every couple of months, coming to DC for meetings. Each state chapter can also organize advocacy days in DC for their chapter members. The biggest relief can come from fixes like recapture or country limit removal for which each individual stuck in the mess needs to take active role. Without that, this problem is not going to go away anytime soon. Next year is election year and after getting elected the president is not expected to push for any relief bill.

EB3I people are more than happy with their EAD and they are not bothering much about the actual GC. Then why others need to bother?

One of my acquaintances is working at TI and EB3 2006. But they don’t even want to join IV.

[gaz]

I guess you are talking about a company that starts with "I". I know one of the so many guys (more than 4) got approved in EB3, when his date became current as per EB3 Cutoff dates announced in VB. So I believe that their EB3 continues, despite the query and unable to port to EB2. Despite being in the job role of managers, senior managers and directors, I also feel that USCIS primarily looks into their qualifications for making them to be eligible under EB2.

Thank you for the responses.

Actually this is a decent sized product dev company and all of these guys have been working here in key roles since late 90's and are very qualified in both education/ expereince. If their EB3 continues despite the porting it will be good - right now they're really stressed up about missing eb3 if it gets current in the next year. They did ask our company lawyer if the eb3 would continue tp be processed - but haven't received a concrete response yet.

[skpanda]

EB3I people are more than happy with their EAD and they are not bothering much about the actual GC. Then why others need to bother?

One of my acquaintances is working at TI and EB3 2006. But they don’t even want to join IV.

what about EB3 people with PD after July 2007? There is no hope for them unless they join initiatives such as those from IV. Unfortunately there are people who would be delighted if reforms take place but do not want to work to achieve the same.

God bless!!

[EBX-Man]

I don't know about enthusiasm and participation of EB3 I people but from what i have read on other forums it looks like EB3 ROW guys are the ones most pissed of with the spillover rule change and they keep blaming EB2 guys and in brackets they mention IV. The fact is IV has been identified too closely as working for the interests of EB2 group only and this opinion is held prevelent among EB3 group as a whole. Unless this identification changes i am not sure EB3 people as a whole will be committed towards any advocacy efforts or other efforts.
In this US immigration law as long as one group gets a benefit, another group will be the loser and vice versa. To get the aspiration of all these diverse groups into one concentrated effort, the first thing to be done is to make the organization which is leading such an effort speak for all the groups and not just one group.

[gc_peshwa]

I don't know about enthusiasm and participation of EB3 I people but from what i have read on other forums it looks like EB3 ROW guys are the ones most pissed of with the spillover rule change and they keep blaming EB2 guys and in brackets they mention IV. The fact is IV has been identified too closely as working for the interests of EB2 group only and this opinion is held prevelent among EB3 group as a whole. Unless this identification changes i am not sure EB3 people as a whole will be committed towards any advocacy efforts or other efforts.
In this US immigration law as long as one group gets a benefit, another group will be the loser and vice versa. To get the aspiration of all these diverse groups into one concentrated effort, the first thing to be done is to make the organization which is leading such an effort speak for all the groups and not just one group.

THIS IS A LIE....PLEASE FOR GOD's SAKE DONT FALL FOR IT... IV is for all Employment based Immigrants. Look at the DREAM activists, look at the undocumented workers...Are they afraid to fight for their cause? Why the h*** do we EB immigrants not help IV to lobby for EB relief laws? Does the EB community think IV is behind EB2 guys? If you think IV was so powerful why did the dates not advance for EB2 for past so many years?
Lets not derail this thread and lets stop here.
*Rant off*

[pappu]

I don't know about enthusiasm and participation of EB3 I people but from what i have read on other forums it looks like EB3 ROW guys are the ones most pissed of with the spillover rule change and they keep blaming EB2 guys and in brackets they mention IV. The fact is IV has been identified too closely as working for the interests of EB2 group only and this opinion is held prevelent among EB3 group as a whole. Unless this identification changes i am not sure EB3 people as a whole will be committed towards any advocacy efforts or other efforts.
In this US immigration law as long as one group gets a benefit, another group will be the loser and vice versa. To get the aspiration of all these diverse groups into one concentrated effort, the first thing to be done is to make the organization which is leading such an effort speak for all the groups and not just one group.

Stop paying attention to such theorists or armchair critics who have nothing better to do than type such messages. These are the people who have zero idea or ability to understand how things work in DC and what IV does. They cannot see the issue beyond their PD, spillover visa numbers and tracking. If you ask me, these are the people responsible for their own backlog and not anyone else. To understand how things work and what IV does, people affected need to roll up their sleeves and participate actively in IV. I bet none of these people ever came to DC in any IV event and attended IV training sessions. They would have understood that all their theories are a waste of time and they are doing disservice to their own greencard issue by writing such posts. I would say just ignore them and move on. If you are interested in doing something constructive then get involved beyond the forums with IV and help yourself.

[smuggymba]

I don't know about enthusiasm and participation of EB3 I people but from what i have read on other forums it looks like EB3 ROW guys are the ones most pissed of with the spillover rule change and they keep blaming EB2 guys and in brackets they mention IV. The fact is IV has been identified too closely as working for the interests of EB2 group only and this opinion is held prevelent among EB3 group as a whole. Unless this identification changes i am not sure EB3 people as a whole will be committed towards any advocacy efforts or other efforts.
In this US immigration law as long as one group gets a benefit, another group will be the loser and vice versa. To get the aspiration of all these diverse groups into one concentrated effort, the first thing to be done is to make the organization which is leading such an effort speak for all the groups and not just one group.

I guess many IV core members are EB3.

[EBX-Man]

There is no reason why EB3 ROW should be getting greencards out of order when a fellow EB3I is waiting from 2002 and 2003. It is a skill based selection and it needs to be that way.

They should be happy for this loophole for now until its fixed... :cool:

What i am trying to understand is that right now EB3 ROW is pissed off with EB2 for spilllover rules change and EB3 ROW is pissed off with EB3 I because they are worried that if and when EB3 gets the spillover the spillover visa will go to EB3 I instead of EB3 ROW. If according to you this is a loophole and EB3 ROW is currently set to get visa out of turn and this loophole will be closed soon how will EB3 ROW react. As for EB3 I their situation is so pathetic that they dont have any interest in even following the thread. With so many divisions in EB community EBROW vs EB2, EBROW vs EB3I, EB2C vs EB2I, , EB3C vs EB3I where is the unity that is spoken of here. If any changes to rule are made one or the other group is going to be at a disadvantage.

[frostrated]

Not to go right at you or anything.. but it is kind of funny how people predict the movement to a situation that best suits them.. It probably applies to me also..

Every one wants to get out of the mess, and no one cares for the rest...

No offense, but I am no longer in the waiting game. I got greened in Sept of last year. But the years I spent on these forums (first on Rajeev Khanna's forums, and then this when it was started), keeps me coming back every now and then.

Based on my observations over the years, I feel that this might be what the USCIS might plan. The DoS will not move the date as long as there is a sufficient backlog for available visas. By the time DoS moves the date to allow for more EB2 AOS applications to be filed, there might not be enough time to adjudicate them. In such a case, rather than waste the visa numbers, they will spill over to EB3. The question is, who in EB3 gets them? ROW or EB3I/C!

[h1_b_visa_holder]

what about EB3 people with PD after July 2007? There is no hope for them unless they join initiatives such as those from IV. Unfortunately there are people who would be delighted if reforms take place but do not want to work to achieve the same.

God bless!!

EB3-I post July 2007 is an extinct species. ...:) 75% plus are in EB2.

[EBX-Man]

No offense, but I am no longer in the waiting game. I got greened in Sept of last year. But the years I spent on these forums (first on Rajeev Khanna's forums, and then this when it was started), keeps me coming back every now and then.

Based on my observations over the years, I feel that this might be what the USCIS might plan. The DoS will not move the date as long as there is a sufficient backlog for available visas. By the time DoS moves the date to allow for more EB2 AOS applications to be filed, there might not be enough time to adjudicate them. In such a case, rather than waste the visa numbers, they will spill over to EB3. The question is, who in EB3 gets them? ROW or EB3I/C!

Yes i think that is what is going to happen.

According to the rule being followed in EB2 since EB2 ROW is current the visa is going to most retrogressed dates which is EB2I. Now if EB2 ROW was not current who would get the visa EB2 ROW or EB2I ? if that question is answered correctly and as per the law then the same logic can be mapped to EB3 and that would answer whether EB3 ROW or EB3 I receives the spillover first.

[EBX-Man]

EB3-I post July 2007 is an extinct species. ...:) 75% plus are in EB2.

I would not say extinct but very less people in EB3 post July 2007. Even if there is 1 person in EB3 I post july 2007 i am assuming that IV speaks for him/her too

[skpanda]

I don't know about enthusiasm and participation of EB3 I people but from what i have read on other forums it looks like EB3 ROW guys are the ones most pissed of with the spillover rule change and they keep blaming EB2 guys and in brackets they mention IV. The fact is IV has been identified too closely as working for the interests of EB2 group only and this opinion is held prevelent among EB3 group as a whole. Unless this identification changes i am not sure EB3 people as a whole will be committed towards any advocacy efforts or other efforts.
In this US immigration law as long as one group gets a benefit, another group will be the loser and vice versa. To get the aspiration of all these diverse groups into one concentrated effort, the first thing to be done is to make the organization which is leading such an effort speak for all the groups and not just one group.

If you have any knowledge of IV's initiatives you would not have posted this. IV's focus is all EB groups. Visa Recapture and removal of country limit benefits all the EB categories. Please get your facts and thought process right before posting.

If you can - try to motivate people to join IVs initiatives for all our common good.

[skpanda]

EB3-I post July 2007 is an extinct species. ...:) 75% plus are in EB2.


Agreed.. but that too is sizeable (atleast 25K) if not huge.

[forever_waiting]

The USCIS/DOS/Congress are not running an on-demand hotline waiting for every group to let them know what they need so that the neccessary laws/fixes can be passed.
The law is what it is and it is being interpreted the right way. What IV is doing is trying to push for the most feasible resolution. The myth that IV works for one particular group is just propagated by unsubstantiated posts that appear now and then.
So basically any feasible solution in the current Congress or with the current admin will not resolve anyone's problem 100%...it will probably only only go a fraction of the way and we have to be happy with that. There is no magic wand here to make everyone happy. We are all at the mercy of the Congress/USCIS.

What i am trying to understand is that right now EB3 ROW is pissed off with EB2 for spilllover rules change and EB3 ROW is pissed off with EB3 I because they are worried that if and when EB3 gets the spillover the spillover visa will go to EB3 I instead of EB3 ROW. If according to you this is a loophole and EB3 ROW is currently set to get visa out of turn and this loophole will be closed soon how will EB3 ROW react. As for EB3 I their situation is so pathetic that they dont have any interest in even following the thread. With so many divisions in EB community EBROW vs EB2, EBROW vs EB3I, EB2C vs EB2I, , EB3C vs EB3I where is the unity that is spoken of here. If any changes to rule are made one or the other group is going to be at a disadvantage.

[frostrated]

I guess many IV core members are EB3.

smuggy - I thought your PD was earlier than 2010. Did you re-file?

[frostrated]

Agreed.. but that too is sizeable (atleast 25K) if not huge.

Dont know about this, but a good number of my friends are EB3, or has been during the downturn as employers filed in EB3 to avoid audits due to high unemployment.

[EBX-Man]

The USCIS/DOS/Congress are not running an on-demand hotline waiting for every group to let them know what they need so that the neccessary laws/fixes can be passed.
The law is what it is and it is being interpreted the right way. What IV is doing is trying to push for the most feasible resolution. The myth that IV works for one particular group is just propagated by unsubstantiated posts that appear now and then.
So basically any feasible solution in the current Congress or with the current admin will not resolve anyone's problem 100%...it will probably only only go a fraction of the way and we have to be happy with that. There is no magic wand here to make everyone happy. We are all at the mercy of the Congress/USCIS.

In the interpretation of LAW in the right way if and when EB3 gets the spillover who will get first rights to that spillover. Will it be EB ROW or most retrogressed category which is EB3I ?

[frostrated]

In the interpretation of LAW in the right way if and when EB3 gets the spillover who will get first rights to that spillover. Will it be EB ROW or most retrogressed category which is EB3I ?

We had a document do the rounds same time last year, that explains the process of visa allocation. That document was also verified with the USCIS. It should be attached to some of the posts from last year.

[EBX-Man]

We had a document do the rounds same time last year, that explains the process of visa allocation. That document was also verified with the USCIS. It should be attached to some of the posts from last year.

All i am looking for is the CIS interpetation of the law and if as suggested the spillover goes to EB3 this last quarter and if the spillover is assigned against the CIS interpetation then we will see what these organizations which are representing all EB category will do about it.

[jetflyer]

Stop paying attention to such theorists or armchair critics who have nothing better to do than type such messages. These are the people who have zero idea or ability to understand how things work in DC and what IV does. They cannot see the issue beyond their PD, spillover visa numbers and tracking. If you ask me, these are the people responsible for their own backlog and not anyone else. To understand how things work and what IV does, people affected need to roll up their sleeves and participate actively in IV. I bet none of these people ever came to DC in any IV event and attended IV training sessions. They would have understood that all their theories are a waste of time and they are doing disservice to their own greencard issue by writing such posts. I would say just ignore them and move on. If you are interested in doing something constructive then get involved beyond the forums with IV and help yourself.

Dear Pappu, do you have anything for single permanent residents in your IV agenda? what to do to bring their spouses here.

Thanks for the response.

jet

[gc_on_demand]

Dear Pappu, do you have anything for single permanent residents in your IV agenda? what to do to bring their spouses here.

Thanks for the response.

jet

That should not be IV's agenda, since IV is for employment based immigration. This falls under family based. We can't fight for everything.

[CaliHoneB]

This is as per my attorney

When porting from Eb3 to Eb2 ..they are seperate processes until interfiling and even after interfiling if it gets rejected Eb3 process is unaffected
If Eb3 becomes current and they have problems with Eb2 ( and interfiling) they should get same or similar job as per their Eb3 Labor and they should be fine.


I was talking to a few colleagues of mine who're in eb3 but are porting to eb2 (4 people) - as they started off as developers but are now managers. Without exception each one has got some kind of inquiry on their case and are actually now regretting porting to eb2 (which is sad because they do deserve to be in eb2 based on their job and skills) - and now others who are eligible to port to eb2 are thinking of waiting it out rather than taking a chance. I don't know if this is the general trend, or these guys are just unlucky.

Questions -
1)are these guys in no-mans land - neither eb3 or eb2? if their dates in eb3 get current could they still get approved? is there a solution to their predicament?
2) If this is the trend, does this impact dates/predictions in any way - i recall reading that there weren't too many people porting at this time so am thinking it won't make a difference?

[vbkris77]

Dear Pappu, do you have anything for single permanent residents in your IV agenda? what to do to bring their spouses here.

Thanks for the response.

jet

It is one of IV agenda items to not count dependents against count and also treat PERM resident like a citizen for immigration benefits. It is kind of brought up in the CIR last couple of times.. But I am sure IV Core can give more update on that..

[pbuckeye]

@Teddy

How about cleaning up all the off topic posts?

[TeddyKoochu]

@Teddy

How about cleaning up all the off topic posts?

Friends lets stick to the purpose of the thread or general discussion at best, please refrain from personal attacks. @pbuckeye acknowledged I have cleaned out the posts.

[Caliber]

Not sure what's the confusion for EB3 is about?
EB3 I cannot be expecting 19,961 or even 6,741 that EB2 and EB1 India got. It is not possible within the current law. If EB3I needs more than 2300, it will need change of law. And for change of law, EB3 I needs to come to DC for advocacy days in large number. There is no shortcut solution for EB3I unfortunately. This category is badly backlogged and current law has extremely limited avenues for any relief or possibilities of lawsuit for any relief. EB2 India dates will continue to advance significantly in the coming months and it is due to the current law and its interpretation. The current spillover rules benefit the most backlogged countries and that is India and China. If more relief is sought, then EB3India needs to roll up their sleeves and participate more actively in advocacy. This means meeting their local lawmakers regularly every couple of months, coming to DC for meetings. Each state chapter can also organize advocacy days in DC for their chapter members. The biggest relief can come from fixes like recapture or country limit removal for which each individual stuck in the mess needs to take active role. Without that, this problem is not going to go away anytime soon. Next year is election year and after getting elected the president is not expected to push for any relief bill.

Excuse me. Did I ask for any solution? Did I ask for any help? Did I ask for more visas? Please read my post before drawing conclusions. I simply said "Looks like this year, we may get less than 2000 even". Can you tell me what is the mistake in this?

[gcseeker101]

Friends,

As per predictions from Teddy, vdl, etc..., there will not be enough spillover to cover EB2 until July-2007 as a best case scenario. So there is no point in discussing this topic who gets remaining spillover as there will be no spillover. All this community based discussions like EB2, EB3, ROW, I/C lead to fights. Not worth it.




All i am looking for is the CIS interpetation of the law and if as suggested the spillover goes to EB3 this last quarter and if the spillover is assigned against the CIS interpetation then we will see what these organizations which are representing all EB category will do about it.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends,

As per predictions from Teddy, vdl, etc..., there will not be enough spillover to cover EB2 until July-2007 as a best case scenario. So there is no point in discussing this topic who gets remaining spillover as there will be no spillover. All this community based discussions like EB2, EB3, ROW, I/C lead to fights. Not worth it.

Friends even I agree that the discussion is academic as well the chances that the preadjudicated numbers will be exhausted this year are less. However for the coming years the intake has to be done in advance to avoid this scenario.
- Here is how the spillover would work.
EB4 and EB5 will fall up to Eb1 once all countries from EB1 are satisfied then it goes to EB2.
- The interesting part is why EB2 I/C get the spillover this is because the demand from all ROW countries is less than their allocated cap. If the EB2 ROW usage rises then they could deprive EB2 I/C of any spillover till all component countries reach 7% (This 7% is EB + FB for the country). This allowed South Korea to take more than 7% of EB2 allocation.
- For EB3 the 7% rule will apply similarly and spillover would go to EB3 ROW and not EB3-I. So change of the spillover rule would not bring any change to EB3-I fortunes its almost like a choice of devil and deep sea it either goes to EB2 I/ or EB3 ROW. In the current interpretation atleast folks with PD after Jul 2007 EB2 and EB3 (With porting) can port and get aim to get EAD / AP & GC from the retrogressed countries otherwise it’s a wait for ever.
Unfortunately these spillover rules were originally crafted in an era when retrogression was not there so nobody could have visualized the impact.
ROW folks are unhappy in that blog that the spillover goes to EB2 I/C but this only happened after the reinterpretation in 2008 in that year also they received numbers by default so this really went effective in 2009 and 2010. Other pertinent facts to know for ROW folks is that that EB3-M and EB3-P took higher than 7% share in EB3 because their EB1/EB1/FB usage combined is less than 7% that is why the allocation for EB3 ROW is dynamic every year. Another important thing is by the current inventory is that there is still demand from Apr 2001 read 245I cases which will kill movement.
For all EB3-I folks if the PD is beyond Q1 2003 it’s a wait of more than 2 years for sure and the best option is to do whatever it takes like convincing same company, changing employers, upgrading educational qualifications to port to EB2.
Friends I would like to say that the purpose of this blog really is to bring clarity to the process including spillover we should just debate that without any hard feelings.

[snathan]

Friends even I agree that the discussion is academic as well the chances that the preadjudicated numbers will be exhausted this year are less. However for the coming years the intake has to be done in advance to avoid this scenario.
- Here is how the spillover would work.
EB4 and EB5 will fall up to Eb1 once all countries from EB1 are satisfied then it goes to EB2.
- The interesting part is why EB2 I/C get the spillover this is because the demand from all ROW countries is less than their allocated cap. If the EB2 ROW usage rises then they could deprive EB2 I/C of any spillover till all component countries reach 7% (This 7% is EB + FB for the country). This allowed South Korea to take more than 7% of EB2 allocation.- For EB3 the 7% rule will apply similarly and spillover would go to EB3 ROW and not EB3-I. So change of the spillover rule would not bring any change to EB3-I fortunes its almost like a choice of devil and deep sea it either goes to EB2 I/ or EB3 ROW. In the current interpretation atleast folks with PD after Jul 2007 EB2 and EB3 (With porting) can port and get aim to get EAD / AP & GC from the retrogressed countries otherwise it’s a wait for ever.
Unfortunately these spillover rules were originally crafted in an era when retrogression was not there so nobody could have visualized the impact.
ROW folks are unhappy in that blog that the spillover goes to EB2 I/C but this only happened after the reinterpretation in 2008 in that year also they received numbers by default so this really went effective in 2009 and 2010. Other pertinent facts to know for ROW folks is that that EB3-M and EB3-P took higher than 7% share in EB3 because their EB1/EB1/FB usage combined is less than 7% that is why the allocation for EB3 ROW is dynamic every year. Another important thing is by the current inventory is that there is still demand from Apr 2001 read 245I cases which will kill movement.
For all EB3-I folks if the PD is beyond Q1 2003 it’s a wait of more than 2 years for sure and the best option is to do whatever it takes like convincing same company, changing employers, upgrading educational qualifications to port to EB2.
Friends I would like to say that the purpose of this blog really is to bring clarity to the process including spillover we should just debate that without any hard feelings.

This is very interesting and very tricky one...that why I have siad, couple of pages back - if the EB1 ROW crack down causing the ROW to file in EB2, next year onwards we are not going to see much spill over even for EB2I/C.

But the 7% rules is not applied for spill over?

[skpanda]

This is very interesting and very tricky one...that why I have siad, couple of pages back - if the EB1 ROW crack down causing the ROW to file in EB2, next year onwards we are not going to see much spill over even for EB2I/C.

But the 7% rules is not applied for spill over?

I thought USCIS clarified on 29 March 2011 that Unused Visas (spillover) will be applied to retrogessed countries i.e. based on PD irrespective of country.

So EB1 unused numbers will be used to satisfy the 7% numerical limitation first and then if there are numbers left it will go to retrogessed counties based on PD?

----------------
Dated 29 March 2011.
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

-----------------

[TeddyKoochu]

I thought USCIS clarified on 29 March 2011 that Unused Visas (spillover) will be applied to retrogessed countries i.e. based on PD irrespective of country.

So EB1 unused numbers will be used to satisfy the 7% numerical limitation first and then if there are numbers left it will go to retrogessed counties based on PD?

----------------
Dated 29 March 2011.
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

-----------------

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates. Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

This is the caveat " Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. ".

So essentially since EB2 ROW is current that is why EB2 I/C get the spillover and then within the retrogressed countries India gets it before China.

This is very interesting and very tricky one...that why I have siad, couple of pages back - if the EB1 ROW crack down causing the ROW to file in EB2, next year onwards we are not going to see much spill over even for EB2I/C.

But the 7% rules is not applied for spill over?
EB2 ROW usage is very critical for this year if ir rises it could upset all calculations these rules have been in effect for long. All indicators do suggest however that Eb2 ROW will not exceed its allocation.

[Leo07]

Spill-Over is applied purely on the basis of PD. First on the PD, first to get spilled over visa number. The tightening of EB1 screws will increase EB2-ROW demand no doubt, but will ONLY have impact on FA ( Fall-Across ) numbers that we are used to seeing over the last couple of years. TeddyK or others can correct me, but that has been in the range of 4-8k . so we can stop counting on those numbers.
I thought USCIS clarified on 29 March 2011 that Unused Visas (spillover) will be applied to retrogessed countries i.e. based on PD irrespective of country.

So EB1 unused numbers will be used to satisfy the 7% numerical limitation first and then if there are numbers left it will go to retrogessed counties based on PD?

----------------
Dated 29 March 2011.
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

-----------------

[skpanda]

Does this apply to SPILL DOWN visas from EB1?

I understand EB2 SPILL ACROSS may follow whats in the excerpt you provided.

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates. Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

This is the caveat " Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. ".

So essentially since EB2 ROW is current that is why EB2 I/C get the spillover and then within the retrogressed countries India gets it before China.


EB2 ROW usage is very critical for this year if ir rises it could upset all calculations these rules have been in effect for long. All indicators do suggest however that Eb2 ROW will not exceed its allocation.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spill-Over is applied purely on the basis of PD. First on the PD, first to get spilled over visa number. The tightening of EB1 screws will increase EB2-ROW demand no doubt, but will ONLY have impact on FA ( Fall-Across ) numbers that we are used to seeing over the last couple of years. TeddyK or others can correct me, but that has been in the range of 4-8k . so we can stop counting on those numbers.

Leo I quoted the caveat when the per country limit becomes insignificant.

This is the caveat " Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. ".

So essentially this works for EB2 I/C till the time EB2 ROW is current. Last year we got 11.5K from EB2 ROW this year 7-8K is expected. Lets hope for the best.

[TeddyKoochu]

Does this apply to SPILL DOWN visas from EB1?

I understand EB2 SPILL ACROSS may follow whats in the excerpt you provided.

EB1 is at the top of the pyramid so here is what would happen.

The caveat applies to spill down visas from EB1 including Eb4 and EB5.

If EB1 ROW is not current then EB1 I/C cannot take the EB4 / EB5 fall up. However the current allocation and demand for EB1 is such that it has not broken the ceiling of 42K in the last few years so this scenario has not been tested.

[snathan]

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates. Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

This is the caveat " Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. ".

So essentially since EB2 ROW is current that is why EB2 I/C get the spillover and then within the retrogressed countries India gets it before China.


EB2 ROW usage is very critical for this year if ir rises it could upset all calculations these rules have been in effect for long. All indicators do suggest however that Eb2 ROW will not exceed its allocation.

I am not worrying too much about this year. This EB1 crack down started this year, so for EB2ROW the PERM would take anywhere 4-8 months. We would see the impact starting next year.

[smuggymba]

smuggy - I thought your PD was earlier than 2010. Did you re-file?

nopes. first time filer. March 2010

Had a chance for EB3 in a big 4 firm but didn't go for it.

[nlssubbu]

Not to go right at you or anything.. but it is kind of funny how people predict the movement to a situation that best suits them.. It probably applies to me also..

Every one wants to get out of the mess, and no one cares for the rest...

I got GC in 2007 itself and still visiting forum and donating whenever possible. At least now I am happy to know that the data are available for everyone to analyze to certain extent, but during my journey USCIS is a black hole :(

I do enjoyed the bumpy ride and know the pain of others waiting in line. I introduced IV to many of my colleagues who are not aware of the entire process and pain associated with that to take stock of their situation and helped them to take some meaningful decision as well.

My only wish is that this backlog is cleared once for all for EB immigration once for all.

I also think all IV core members also received their GC and still continuing this service by putting effort and time for the people who are in this bumpy ride.

Thanks to them and all the best!

[sachinhyd2003]

Leo I quoted the caveat when the per country limit becomes insignificant.

This is the caveat " Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. ".

So essentially this works for EB2 I/C till the time EB2 ROW is current. Last year we got 11.5K from EB2 ROW this year 7-8K is expected. Lets hope for the best.
" Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit.".

I read the above statement differently. The statement says "once a country" reached its preference annual limit and does not say "once all countries" reach their limit. So, it might be that spill over number might be allocated strictly based on priority date. I might be wrong but that how I understand the statement.

[vdlrao]

Count down has started for July bulletin.



Upcoming month's visa bulletin: July 2011 (Coming Soon).

[sunny1000]

Correct. And 2,856 is more than the yearly quota of 2300.Not sure what's the confusion for EB3 is about?
EB3 I cannot be expecting 19,961 or even 6,741 that EB2 and EB1 India got. It is not possible within the current law. If EB3I needs more than 2300, it will need change of law. And for change of law, EB3 I needs to come to DC for advocacy days in large number. There is no shortcut solution for EB3I unfortunately. This category is badly backlogged and current law has extremely limited avenues for any relief or possibilities of lawsuit for any relief. EB2 India dates will continue to advance significantly in the coming months and it is due to the current law and its interpretation. The current spillover rules benefit the most backlogged countries and that is India and China. If more relief is sought, then EB3India needs to roll up their sleeves and participate more actively in advocacy. This means meeting their local lawmakers regularly every couple of months, coming to DC for meetings. Each state chapter can also organize advocacy days in DC for their chapter members. The biggest relief can come from fixes like recapture or country limit removal for which each individual stuck in the mess needs to take active role. Without that, this problem is not going to go away anytime soon. Next year is election year and after getting elected the president is not expected to push for any relief bill.

How did you get the 2300?? it is 2802 per year.

[voicerj]

Count down has started for July bulletin.



Upcoming month's visa bulletin: July 2011 (Coming Soon).

but i guess bulletin is not expected before next week.

[skpanda]

but i guess bulletin is not expected before next week.

They usually prefer releasing on friday. My prediction: 10th June 2011 (friday).

Hopefully we will hear good news!!

[krishmunn]

They usually prefer releasing on friday. My prediction: 10th June 2011 (friday).

Hopefully we will hear good news!!

Now we are predicting date of release as well :)

[indo_obama]

hopefully the dates move to May 07 this time

[ryan]

Now we are predicting date of release as well :)

:) it's time to take a break eh?

[gc_on_demand]

USCIS is not approving cases at the rate they did in May bulletin. If same trend continue for next week then bulletin will be on 13th with huge jump in date. DOS can't wait on USCIS and hold back on dates. If demand can't be materialized they will have to move forward to approve NVC cases. As I mentioned in my earlier posts , moving date movement is controlled by USCIS not DOS. If uscis wants to open full or mini gate , they won't approve as many as pre adjudicated cases and DOS will move forward to consume visas via NVC.

With these delays in approving case I see fee email notices coming from NVC for cases with upto july - aug 2008 PDs

Let wait and watch approval rate in coming week !!!

[TeddyKoochu]

" Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit.".

I read the above statement differently. The statement says "once a country" reached its preference annual limit and does not say "once all countries" reach their limit. So, it might be that spill over number might be allocated strictly based on priority date. I might be wrong but that how I understand the statement.

Sachin I think my partial posting caused the misunderstanding. Read the full Para this kind of describes why India got the spillover in the May bulletin and not China.

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates. Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used. Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

[TeddyKoochu]

Last year too EB3 got only 2300 Visas. Looks like this year, we may get less than 2000 even.

If you look at the reduction in the EB3 inventory it has been 1321 in 4-5 months this way we can be fairly sure that EB3-I will get its allocation by extrapolating to 12 months and be around 15th May 2002. EB3-Mexico is once again set to cross the 7% barrier thanks to the 7% rule this will reduce the EB3 ROW allocation. Similar scenario happens for EB2 South Korea which gets more than 7%.

[TeddyKoochu]

USCIS is not approving cases at the rate they did in May bulletin. If same trend continue for next week then bulletin will be on 13th with huge jump in date. DOS can't wait on USCIS and hold back on dates. If demand can't be materialized they will have to move forward to approve NVC cases. As I mentioned in my earlier posts , moving date movement is controlled by USCIS not DOS. If uscis wants to open full or mini gate , they won't approve as many as pre adjudicated cases and DOS will move forward to consume visas via NVC.

With these delays in approving case I see fee email notices coming from NVC for cases with upto july - aug 2008 PDs

Let wait and watch approval rate in coming week !!!
That’s an interesting interpretation of things. I hope you are correct we really don’t know what’s happening behind the scenes and what’s the plan. I was thinking lesser cases being approved is actually a bad indicator. It maybe memorial day weekend related.

Count down has started for July bulletin.



Upcoming month's visa bulletin: July 2011 (Coming Soon).

We have to move to 15th Feb 2007 or more to be on track, lets hope for the best.

[vijay226]

Seeing approvals very random with different dates, some in july, some aug, and also saw some in oct 2006. Is this very common now days?. How was the trend before?.

[moonrah]

USCIS is not approving cases at the rate they did in May bulletin. If same trend continue for next week then bulletin will be on 13th with huge jump in date. DOS can't wait on USCIS and hold back on dates. If demand can't be materialized they will have to move forward to approve NVC cases. As I mentioned in my earlier posts , moving date movement is controlled by USCIS not DOS. If uscis wants to open full or mini gate , they won't approve as many as pre adjudicated cases and DOS will move forward to consume visas via NVC.

With these delays in approving case I see fee email notices coming from NVC for cases with upto july - aug 2008 PDs

Let wait and watch approval rate in coming week !!!

Can you eloborate more on email part please? How did you come to know, email notices being sent for july-aug 2008 PDs? And what does it mean?

[EBX-Man]

If you look at the reduction in the EB3 inventory it has been 1321 in 4-5 months this way we can be fairly sure that EB3-I will get its allocation by extrapolating to 12 months and be around 15th May 2002. EB3-Mexico is once again set to cross the 7% barrier thanks to the 7% rule this will reduce the EB3 ROW allocation. Similar scenario happens for EB2 South Korea which gets more than 7%.

TK a Quick question
If EB3 I is hitting the 7% mark and not getting any more visas, why is EB3 Mexico and EB3 South Korea allowed to cross the 7% mark. Does it has something to do with FB visas?

[TeddyKoochu]

TK a Quick question
If EB3 I is hitting the 7% mark and not getting any more visas, why is EB3 Mexico and EB3 South Korea allowed to cross the 7% mark. Does it has something to do with FB visas?

The 7% ceiling is Eb + FB, Mexico's usage on Eb1 and Eb2 is weak this helps Eb3 Mexico last year they got 5.5K, South Korea gets 4-4.5K Eb2 visas every year and they are not even retrogressed as they dont hit the 7% on EB + FB.

[gc_on_demand]

Can you eloborate more on email part please? How did you come to know, email notices being sent for july-aug 2008 PDs? And what does it mean?

I forgot about memorial day weekend and people might have planned for long weekend vacations. If that the case then we will see lot more approval next week Monday. If we don't then DOS will ask NVC to send out more and more email with fees notices to people with PD in Mid part of 2008.