EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[thankgod]

The 7% ceiling is Eb + FB, Mexico's usage on Eb1 and Eb2 is weak this helps Eb3 Mexico last year they got 5.5K, South Korea gets 4-4.5K Eb2 visas every year and they are not even retrogressed as they dont hit the 7% on EB + FB.




Friends - Let me take some of your valuable time and please join with me in congratulating TeddyKoochu for helping these predictions.

TeddyKoochu created a trend about the predictions and apparently most of his predictions are true. W ehave seen that practically.

Thanks for everything Teddy.

I hope Teddy will continue his efforts after he get the green card also.

[rahul2699]

friends - let me take some of your valuable time and please join with me in congratulating teddykoochu for helping these predictions.

Teddykoochu created a trend about the predictions and apparently most of his predictions are true. W ehave seen that practically.

Thanks for everything teddy.

I hope teddy will continue his efforts after he get the green card also.

<3

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends - Let me take some of your valuable time and please join with me in congratulating TeddyKoochu for helping these predictions.

TeddyKoochu created a trend about the predictions and apparently most of his predictions are true. W ehave seen that practically.

Thanks for everything Teddy.

I hope Teddy will continue his efforts after he get the green card also.

Thanks for your kind words its collective effort and knowledge sharing here.

[ravi.shah]

USCIS is not approving cases at the rate they did in May bulletin. If same trend continue for next week then bulletin will be on 13th with huge jump in date. DOS can't wait on USCIS and hold back on dates. If demand can't be materialized they will have to move forward to approve NVC cases. As I mentioned in my earlier posts , moving date movement is controlled by USCIS not DOS. If uscis wants to open full or mini gate , they won't approve as many as pre adjudicated cases and DOS will move forward to consume visas via NVC.

With these delays in approving case I see fee email notices coming from NVC for cases with upto july - aug 2008 PDs

Let wait and watch approval rate in coming week !!!

I see your point here.
It is going to be really interesting this year. :)

[vshar]

Now we are predicting date of release as well :)

haha.:D
This is the best post of the week on this thread

hope, ppl won't start predicting time of bulletin release.

[vijay226]

Notes:

The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have
been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS and such applicants would not be included in the above
totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff
dates do not apply or are "upgrading" their petition to a new category. Therefore, the above totals should
not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of
demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates.

- All totals are approximate values
- Categories not listed are "current"
- Data as of May 9, 2011

===============================================

Closely looking at above verbiage, dos also not calculating the demand based on all the variables involved. They are also doing rough estimate.

[vijay226]

Based on 12k available from eb1 they moved the dates from July to oct (Inventory date from June eb2 total 11770, dos bit conservative!). From the estimated calculations from this forum and other forums, the average remaining spill over is around 20,000 , so this gets us to Aug 01 2007 (Inventory calculations from June coming upto 20464). As dos also coming up with rough estimates, the above is highly likely scenario

[Rahulkilaru]

Just in case dates move to July 2007 and still have some EB2 Spill over left. I heard people saying after applying 485 it will take atleast 6 months for them to process GC. So it means they will not use the spill over at all and if they open EB2 dates slowly same process will be repeated next year. Is it true? Sorry if my question is not accurate.

[penna]

I have been following this thread &Q’s thread closely for the past one month or so – and I admit that I do not know many of the facts being discussed here before. I am one of the PMWB (July 2007 PD)...
My question is similar to Rahul’s . May be a dumb one...
I read somewhere (in here or in Q’s) that the spill over would be around 22K and the preadjucated cases till July 2007 are around 21 k. I also read that it takes 4-6 months for processing for a new case. In that case, what happens to the remaining 1000 spillover visas? Are they counted against the non_adjudicated cases (EB3-EB2 or PMWB) within the cut-off date by allotting a number? Do they have to allot a Visa before the FY in order not to waste the VISA or allotting a number is sufficient? What if the spillover is more than 22K? If Visa allotting is only counted (not allotting the number against a candidate), doesn’t it make sense for them to move the cut off date to some time to a well advance date like 9/ 2007 –10/ 2007 in the July bulletin itself , so that they can complete the processing of the balance 1000 (or whatever the figure greater than adjudicated cases) before the FY ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I have been following this thread &Q’s thread closely for the past one month or so – and I admit that I do not know many of the facts being discussed here before. I am one of the PMWB (July 2007 PD)...
My question is similar to Rahul’s . May be a dumb one...
I read somewhere (in here or in Q’s) that the spill over would be around 22K and the preadjucated cases till July 2007 are around 21 k. I also read that it takes 4-6 months for processing for a new case. In that case, what happens to the remaining 1000 spillover visas? Are they counted against the non_adjudicated cases (EB3-EB2 or PMWB) within the cut-off date by allotting a number? Do they have to allot a Visa before the FY in order not to waste the VISA or allotting a number is sufficient? What if the spillover is more than 22K? If Visa allotting is only counted (not allotting the number against a candidate), doesn’t it make sense for them to move the cut off date to some time to a well advance date like 9/ 2007 –10/ 2007 in the July bulletin itself , so that they can complete the processing of the balance 1000 (or whatever the figure greater than adjudicated cases) before the FY ?

Just in case dates move to July 2007 and still have some EB2 Spill over left. I heard people saying after applying 485 it will take atleast 6 months for them to process GC. So it means they will not use the spill over at all and if they open EB2 dates slowly same process will be repeated next year. Is it true? Sorry if my question is not accurate.

The total demand till Jul - Aug 2007 line is around 24K. However what can happen is that if the PWMB's are able to file then they can attach the cap number from this years cap itself and approve the case later on. As of now there is probably a 25% chance that all the pre-adjudicated numbers will be exhausted this FY. When the gate will be opened even for the PWMB's is purely speculative. As of now there is no precedent to what would happen so this year will be the trend setter.

[penna]

Teddy,
Appreciate your response. Is that figure 24k ( till July-august 2007 line)includes EB3-EB2 Porting cases , PWMB and factored (means includes family members too )?

Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Appreciate your response. Is that figure 24k ( till July-august 2007 line)includes EB3-EB2 Porting cases , PWMB and factored (means includes family members too )?

Thanks

It includes everything except for PWMB's and their dependents this would be 6K additional cases. The idea not to include PWMB's is relevant because they have little chances of their cases being approved unless they become current in the July bulletin. With the real demand till 01-Aug-2007 you can realize that its still a tall order to truly cross this line.

[gc_on_demand]

The total demand till Jul - Aug 2007 line is around 24K. However what can happen is that if the PWMB's are able to file then they can attach the cap number from this years cap itself and approve the case later on. As of now there is probably a 25% chance that all the pre-adjudicated numbers will be exhausted this FY. When the gate will be opened even for the PWMB's is purely speculative. As of now there is no precedent to what would happen so this year will be the trend setter.


This is illegal. They have never done it and will not do it. Otherwise we will not have need to recapture visas.

[TeddyKoochu]

This is illegal. They have never done it and will not do it. Otherwise we will not have need to recapture visas.

I dont know about the legality of this thing I remember this discussion in Oct 2010 that cases that were approved late were actually from the previous years cap. Actually this started was that in bit Oct 2009 and Oct 2010 there were a high number of approvals in fact this number was high enough to be equal to the sum of h netx 6 months for EB2 - I thanks to the 2.8K cap for the full year. Some folks also advised that many people received their approvals upto 3 months after the Jul 2007 fiasco even when their dates were not current. So at that time this was the explanation that was put forth. The PWMB cases have a very low chance of approval this year even if the dates cross the Jul - Aug 2007 line but they can act as a buffer. Please comment.

[gcseeker101]

I don't think there is anything illegal in it. Point is, they should pick up a case and assign a visa number to it. Minus one visa number in quota. It can then get approved anytime later depending on various checks like name-check, etc... A case can then take its own time depending upon need.

If their policy is to assign a visa number just before approval and not at the beginning, then what what you said is correct. But this is not their policy. Else whoever filed I485s during Jul-07 should be getting updates in various forms like RFEs and name-checks even though PD is not current for them. Apparently this is not happening.

They wasted visas earlier because they did not even pick up a case and assign a visa number to it. So we need recapture of wasted ones.


This is illegal. They have never done it and will not do it. Otherwise we will not have need to recapture visas.

[vijay226]

According to uscis memo , they are only supposed to assign a visa number once all the check are done and the pd is current at that point of time

[vijay226]

one of the uscis memo: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/regressed-visa-12-15-10.pdf

content:

The following processing guidance is to be followed by USCIS field offices handling
employment- or family-based cases where a visa number is not readily available at the time of
adjudication:
USCIS field offices must:
1. Conduct and complete the interview.
2. Ensure that all security and background related checks have been completed.
3. Ensure that all eligibility and documentary requirements are met.
4. Resolve all issues pertaining to the case, either at the time of the interview or through the
use of a Request for Evidence (as applicable).
5. Deny the case, if warranted, following established procedures. In such cases, no visa
number should be requested.
6. If the applicant appears eligible, determine visa number availability:
a. If a visa number is immediately available, request allocation of a visa number
through Consolidated Consular Database (CCD)/Immigrant Visa Management
System (IVAMS) and approve the case; or
b. If a visa number is not immediately available, complete a pre-adjudication
worksheet (Attachment A), but DO NOT request allocation of a visa number
through CCD/IVAMS.
7. Update the case as “Regressed Visa Number” in Interim Case Management Solution
(ICMS).
8. Place the completed

[TeddyKoochu]

According to uscis memo , they are only supposed to assign a visa number once all the check are done and the pd is current at that point of time

Thanks for posting looks like this is a new thing, refer to the date on the top left its Jan 2011. Definitely this has not been followed in the past if look at the data on the other site the Oct approvals are always high that is why we don't use them in capturing the trend.

[gcseeker101]

Advantage of following this memo will be - No visa number will be lost if a case is denied for some reason.
Disadvantage will be - They might waste visa numbers as they have to complete all processing before assigning a visa number.

Thanks for posting looks like this is a new thing, refer to the date on the top left its Jan 2011. Definitely this has not been followed in the past if look at the data on the other site the Oct approvals are always high that is why we don't use them in capturing the trend.

[gc_vbin]

If they follow this procedure of not assigning a visa number until after all the processing is complete (such as security/name check etc) then they will need to build a pipeline in order not to waste visa numbers during the next spillover season in 2012. Any thoughts?

Advantage of following this memo will be - No visa number will be lost if a case is denied for some reason.
Disadvantage will be - They might waste visa numbers as they have to complete all processing before assigning a visa number.

[gcwait2007]

The PWMB cases have a very low chance of approval this year even if the dates cross the Jul - Aug 2007 line but they can act as a buffer. Please comment.

I agree with your statement. It takes about 4 months for USCIS to process an I-485 application end-to-end.

[penna]

Exactly. I think if they cannot allot a number to case that is not pre-adjucated or not processed say for example PWMB the cut off date has be beyond august 2007 in the july bulletin itself.

[nishant2200]

Exactly. I think if they cannot allot a number to case that is not pre-adjucated or not processed say for example PWMB the cut off date has be beyond august 2007 in the july bulletin itself.

Good point. Theoritically sounds correct. I like the balance of caution by veterans like Teddy and others like vijay, u...

Let's wait for demand data for next bulletin, hopefully this wed, and then thursday night mumbai consulate visa date page! Here's to hope.

[gcseeker101]

I don't think this pipeline building thing is happening at-least in implementation. Else people with PDs Oct-2006 to Early-2007 must be getting RFEs and other updates/enquiries in the process of building pipeline. There should be some cases ending in RFEs for sure. But have not seen even one person getting an update whose PD is not current.

Exactly. I think if they cannot allot a number to case that is not pre-adjucated or not processed say for example PWMB the cut off date has be beyond august 2007 in the july bulletin itself.

[vijay226]

Pre-adjudication is different than pipe building. Most of the applications applied thru July 2007 are pre adjucated , that is the reason you are not seeing any rfes etc as they are just waiting for visa numbers.

Pipe building is something CIS opens the VB once a while in order to process the new applications untill pre-adjudication step, so that they dont waste visas once they have spill over from lower demand categories.

[dvb123]

EB2 priority date was august 2006 in the visa bulletin of september 2008. So Eb2's had two chances if their priority date was before august 2006 to add dependents. I don't think any dependents of 2007 fiasco are really clogging the pipeline for this year.

[penna]

Pre-adjudication is different than pipe building. Most of the applications applied thru July 2007 are pre adjucated , that is the reason you are not seeing any rfes etc as they are just waiting for visa numbers.

Pipe building is something CIS opens the VB once a while in order to process the new applications untill pre-adjudication step, so that they dont waste visas once they have spill over from lower demand categories.
So, what happens in the following scenario:
Assume that the spill over is like 30 k and there are 24K pre-adjudicated cases in EB2. So, the balance 6k goes to already pre-adjudicated EB3 or they start processing for the new EB2 case within the cut-off date , which might not be completed before the close of FY 2011?

[gc_on_demand]

So, what happens in the following scenario:
Assume that the spill over is like 30 k and there are 24K pre-adjudicated cases in EB2. So, the balance 6k goes to already pre-adjudicated EB3 or they start processing for the new EB2 case within the cut-off date , which might not be completed before the close of FY 2011?

We have 3-4k CP cases ( NVC ) which can consume those and if remains it will fall down to EB3 India.

Those 3-4k CP cases are one who can take PD into 2008 - 09.

[EBX-Man]

We have 3-4k CP cases ( NVC ) which can consume those and if remains it will fall down to EB3 India.

Those 3-4k CP cases are one who can take PD into 2008 - 09.

Agree with you except for one point. If any spillover visas remain they will go to EB3 ROW and not to EB3 India

[gc_on_demand]

Agree with you except for one point. If any spillover visas remain they will go to EB3 ROW and not to EB3 India

since EB3 Row has cutoff date it will go to oldest PD first. If any one from ROW country has older pd then it will go to them first OR India China.

[ctm1234]

In August or September, the Visa Control and Reporting Division will make an additional allocation based on world wide employment demand. The intent is to use all the "otherwise unused" and available visa numbers. The best case scenario for India EB2 based on currently available data is Fall, 2006.


I found this on

EB2 India - How long will I wait (http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2_India_How_Long.htm)

[EBX-Man]

since EB3 Row has cutoff date it will go to oldest PD first. If any one from ROW country has older pd then it will go to them first OR India China.

From what i read of the spillover rule only if EBROW has reached the country limit will the spillover go to oldest PD. Is that correct ? If yes has EB ROW reached the country limit of 7%?

[gc_on_demand]

From what i read of the spillover rule only if EBROW has reached the country limit will the spillover go to oldest PD. Is that correct ? If yes has EB ROW reached the country limit of 7%?

yes they have that is why they have cutoff date

[EBX-Man]

yes they have that is why they have cutoff date

This question is academic but if the 6k visas are spilled over to EB3 I how much will EB3 I dates move by. i would think that it would clear out 2002 atelast with a new PD in 2003

[gcgonewild]

Especially those countries which would not have reached 7% (EB+FB) Combined.

So no spill over for India, China, Mexico and Phillippines.

This question is academic but if the 6k visas are spilled over to EB3 I how much will EB3 I dates move by. i would think that it would clear out 2002 atelast with a new PD in 2003

[skpanda]

In August or September, the Visa Control and Reporting Division will make an additional allocation based on world wide employment demand. The intent is to use all the "otherwise unused" and available visa numbers. The best case scenario for India EB2 based on currently available data is Fall, 2006.


I found this on

EB2 India - How long will I wait (http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2_India_How_Long.htm)


Your post refers to a very old report and is significantly off from the current situation. Fall 2006 has already reached in June VB. Read this thread to get more information on where we are heading.

[EBX-Man]

Especially those countries which would not have reached 7% (EB+FB) Combined.

So no spill over for India, China, Mexico and Phillippines.

Ok now i get another view that EB3 India will not get spillover. This is confusing !!!!!!

[gcwait2007]

Agree with you except for one point. If any spillover visas remain they will go to EB3 ROW and not to EB3 India

The spillover will go to the country which is retrogressed/ backloged maximum. In the present scenario, it is EB3 India. EB3 India will get the spillovers if there is any, from EB2.

Once EB3 India catches up with next retrogressed country (I guess, it is Philiphines), then the spillover will be distributed in such a way cut off dates for EB3 India and Philiphines move at the same level.

[penna]

The spillover will go to the country which is retrogressed/ backloged maximum. In the present scenario, it is EB3 India. EB3 India will get the spillovers if there is any, from EB2.

Once EB3 India catches up with next retrogressed country (I guess, it is Philiphines), then the spillover will be distributed in such a way cut off dates for EB3 India and Philiphines move at the same level.
Assuming that the cut-off date in July VB be August 2011, from the above discussions can I conclude the following?
If Person ‘A’ whose PD is dec 2006 but couldn’t apply during the 2007 Fiasco (a PWMB) can at the most expect EAD/PD in the current spillover(since his case cannot be processed in the next three months) ; but, person ‘B’ whose PD is July 2007 but got an EAD during 2007 ,now can get a GC since his case has been already pre-adjudicated ! And what ever spill over in EB2 to fall down to EB3 once the pre-adjudicated cases are exhausted in EB2. Just wondering (purely theoretical) what happens to the spill-over if there are no pre-adjudicated cases in any of the categories???

[EBX-Man]

The spillover will go to the country which is retrogressed/ backloged maximum. In the present scenario, it is EB3 India. EB3 India will get the spillovers if there is any, from EB2.

Once EB3 India catches up with next retrogressed country (I guess, it is Philiphines), then the spillover will be distributed in such a way cut off dates for EB3 India and Philiphines move at the same level.

ok that makes sense. According to the june 2011 VB EB3 Philiphines is at 15SEP05. So that would mean that as and when EB3 gets spillover EB3 India will get the visas til EB3 India dates touch 15SEP05. From then onwards the visas will go to EB3 ROW.

[EBX-Man]

Assuming that the cut-off date in July VB be August 2011, from the above discussions can I conclude the following?
If Person ‘A’ whose PD is dec 2006 but couldn’t apply during the 2007 Fiasco (a PWMB) can at the most expect EAD/PD in the current spillover(since his case cannot be processed in the next three months) ; but, person ‘B’ whose PD is July 2007 but got an EAD during 2007 ,now can get a GC since his case has been already pre-adjudicated ! And what ever spill over in EB2 to fall down to EB3 once the pre-adjudicated cases are exhausted in EB2. Just wondering (purely theoretical) what happens to the spill-over if there are no pre-adjudicated cases in any of the categories???

Per the talk if there are no pre adjudicated apps in EB2 the spillover visas go to EB3 specifically to EB3 India

[penna]

Per the talk if there are no pre adjudicated apps in EB2 the spillover visas go to EB3 specifically to EB3 India
Yes , I agree - they go to EB-I , then EB3-P and then to EB3ROW. But, my question (as I said it is purely theoritical) is if there is no pre-adjudicated cases left in any of the categories(EB2/EB3 etc.,) or if the total spill-over is greater than all the preadjudicated cases in all categories( EB2+EB3_ Consular processing etc ., put together) put together , then the spill-over go waste ?

I appreciate any response..

[EBX-Man]

Yes , I agree - they go to EB-I , then EB3-P and then to EB3ROW. But, my question (as I said it is purely theoritical) is if there is no pre-adjudicated cases left in any of the categories(EB2/EB3 etc.,) or if the total spill-over is greater than all the preadjudicated cases in all categories( EB2+EB3_ Consular processing etc ., put together) put together , then the spill-over go waste ?

I appreciate any response..

From the rough figures i heard out here from experts the numbers are like below
Total Spillover = 30 k
Preadjudicted EB2 = 24 k
Spillover left over = 30 k - 24 k = 6k

This 6K should go to EB3 if visas are not to be wasted by CIS and based on the increased scutiny of CIS working i believe CIS will NOT watse this visas. CIS will either

- Give 6K to EB3
Or
- Advance EB2 to fill the pipeline and assign visa to the EB2 received apps

Based on rule posted by someoen else CIS does not assign visa when app is received but they assign visa when apP has been adjudicated as apprOvable

So it looks most likely that CIS will give the 6k visa to EB3.

[chirukatti]

I-485 June 2011 Inventory

[EBX-Man]

I-485 June 2011 Inventory

Can some senior number crunchers confirm. I feel that EB3 India pending numbers have reduced. Does that mean CIS is doing a clean up of invalid apps?

[TeddyKoochu]

Especially those countries which would not have reached 7% (EB+FB) Combined.

So no spill over for India, China, Mexico and Phillippines.

The law as far as I could understand is that the 7% law is waived only under the condition when there is no demand in that category from the non 7% countries in the category. This would imply

a) EB2 I/C are getting spillover only because all EB2 ROW components are current, otherwise individual ROW countries which have not reached 7% could still continue to pull more numbers.

b) The spillover in case it goes to EB3 will go to those countries in EB3 ROW which have not reached 7%. Even today EB3 Mexico & Philippines pull much higher every year at the cost of EB3 ROW quota.

Now coming to another thing on the spillover itself ~ 15K of SOFAD is already consumed as in 6K (I/C Cap) + 10K (Movement seen in May & June Bulletins). So expecting another 30K more is on the higher side.

[TeddyKoochu]

Can some senior number crunchers confirm. I feel that EB3 India pending numbers have reduced. Does that mean CIS is doing a clean up of invalid apps?

EB3-I is going on track, the reduction is on account of regular cap approvals and porting. Eb3-I would reach May 15th 2002 by Sep 2011.

PS - Please update your profile.

[mach1343]

Say if the PD becomes current for an EB2I candidate in July VB bulletin and he/she missed the 2007 Fiasco so what would be the timeline for the GC. I knew it
depends on visa number availability and adjudication process.

Application can be adjudication only when they is a visa number available right? So does this mean the case gets immediately adjudicated when the PD becomes current in July VB?

Thanks

[MYGC2008]

[QUOTE=TeddyKoochu;2644208]

Hi Teddykooche, How the dates will move in July Bulletin?

Thanks

[cjain]

tk, why do we have earlier priority dates in this inventory data? there is someone with a PD of 1997 in EB2 india!!!!???


EB3-I is going on track, the reduction is on account of regular cap approvals and porting. Eb3-I would reach May 15th 2002 by Sep 2011.

PS - Please update your profile.

[eyeswe]

In the good old days when retrogression was not an issue and EB3 vs EB2 did not matter that much it seems like your PD needed to be active two times - one for them to receive your 485 and another to approve and give you a GC Visa #. Wouldn't the same apply now?

Or has the new rule of pre-adj, non-retrogression (wouldn't everyone agree that in EB at least across all categories dates may not have gone back in the last year or so?) , increased visibility to cases/inventory etc changed that approach? Just curious.

[nishant2200]

tk, why do we have earlier priority dates in this inventory data? there is someone with a PD of 1997 in EB2 india!!!!???

Some reasons I can think of:
1. Porting: that would cause the numbers to be shown in the old dates of EB3 PD but in the higher category
2. Statistical Outliers : You have to neglect some outliers in any statistical analysis, and can attribute such stray occurences like the guy in 1997 to white noise in this gaussian random process :) , what I am trying to say is it is just invalid data, or not significant data, and can be ignored

[nvijay78]

The law as far as I could understand is that the 7% law is waived only under the condition when there is no demand in that category from the non 7% countries in the category. This would imply

a) EB2 I/C are getting spillover only because all EB2 ROW components are current, otherwise individual ROW countries which have not reached 7% could still continue to pull more numbers.

b) The spillover in case it goes to EB3 will go to those countries in EB3 ROW which have not reached 7%. Even today EB3 Mexico & Philippines pull much higher every year at the cost of EB3 ROW quota.

Now coming to another thing on the spillover itself ~ 15K of SOFAD is already consumed as in 6K (I/C Cap) + 10K (Movement seen in May & June Bulletins). So expecting another 30K more is on the higher side.
based on the new data looks like there are folks who are in April May and June who still havent gotten their visa's . Based on the most conservative calculations how much of a spill over can we expect?

[TeddyKoochu]

tk, why do we have earlier priority dates in this inventory data? there is someone with a PD of 1997 in EB2 india!!!!???

Though that far back is a little weird but older dates belong to a) PD porting b) cases in log audits c) cases from countries of interest.

[QUOTE=TeddyKoochu;2644208]

Hi Teddykooche, How the dates will move in July Bulletin?

Thanks

At minimum it should be 01-JAN-2007 at best 01-MAr-2007.

Say if the PD becomes current for an EB2I candidate in July VB bulletin and he/she missed the 2007 Fiasco so what would be the timeline for the GC. I knew it
depends on visa number availability and adjudication process.

Application can be adjudication only when they is a visa number available right? So does this mean the case gets immediately adjudicated when the PD becomes current in July VB?

Thanks

I believe that if a visa number is available then in 3-4 months approval should come by.

[dontcareaboutGC]

based on the new data looks like there are folks who are in April May and June who still havent gotten their visa's . Based on the most conservative calculations how much of a spill over can we expect?
Atleast 24k!

[cbpds]

OR APR 2008 based on the NVC scenario

Though that far back is a little weird but older dates belong to a) PD porting b) cases in log audits c) cases from countries of interest.

[QUOTE=MYGC2008;2644217]

At minimum it should be 01-JAN-2007 at best 01-MAr-2007.



I believe that if a visa number is available then in 3-4 months approval should come by.

[TeddyKoochu]

based on the new data looks like there are folks who are in April May and June who still havent gotten their visa's . Based on the most conservative calculations how much of a spill over can we expect?

In the most conservative scenario we will get another 16K which is 8K Sure from EB5 and 4K each from EB2 ROW and EB1 and in the most optimistic scenario its 24K with EB1 and EB2 giving another 4K each. The assumption is 6K EB2 I/C regular cap and 9K EB1 is already consumed. So worst case the dates will be 01-MAR-2007 and best case 01-AUG-2007, most likely 01-MAY-2007. This is just my personal opinion many others have different opinions if everyone could post theirs I will update the header of the thread with the same.

[nvijay78]

Teddy are you taking into account that from now on we will be sharing the spill over with the EB2 C group. As an example you have almost 5K visa at the minimum that EB2 I will require for November and December alone. Add to that the EB2 C pending cases and the 15 days of October by saying Jan 1st you are suggesting that next month DOS will provide for another 7 to 7.5K of visa's . When you say Mar thats almost 10K of visa's is that realistic?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy are you taking into account that from now on we will be sharing the spill over with the EB2 C group. As an example you have almost 5K visa at the minimum that EB2 I will require for November and December alone. Add to that the EB2 C pending cases and the 15 days of October by saying Jan 1st you are suggesting that next month DOS will provide for another 7 to 7.5K of visa's . When you say Mar thats almost 10K of visa's is that realistic?

China is accounted for you ae right about the numbers as well. If we get ~ 8K then we will be at 01-Feb-2007, 01-Mar 2007 is on the optimistic side but if the dates have to reach 01-Aug-2007 then they must reach 01-FEB-2007 in the Jul bulletin its like a litmus test.

[MYGC2008]

Thanks you TeddyKoochu.
waiting for the bulletin.

[bestin]

In the most conservative scenario we will get another 16K which is 8K Sure from EB5 and 4K each from EB2 ROW and EB1 and in the most optimistic scenario its 24K with EB1 and EB2 giving another 4K each. The assumption is 6K EB2 I/C regular cap and 9K EB1 is already consumed. So worst case the dates will be 01-MAR-2007 and best case 01-AUG-2007, most likely 01-MAY-2007. This is just my personal opinion many others have different opinions if everyone could post theirs I will update the header of the thread with the same.

Hi Teddy,1 quick Q here.The spillover estimate which u r mentioning is something yet to be alloted right?In that case,for India it will be 865+1744+1888+9937-(400)=Approx 14000 demand..Similarly for china it will be 360+663+759+5531-100=approx 7300 which brings the total demand for India and China to approx 21300 right.? Even in case porting brings another 1700 demand and 1000 pwmb (since they might not be able to allot visa number ) Wont that move the dates further?My strong intuition is that once they cross the deadine they might make current in Sep bulletin and allow it to stay there for a couple of months and then retrogess back to end of end/last quater of 2007

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Teddy,1 quick Q here.The spillover estimate which u r mentioning is something yet to be alloted right?In that case,for India it will be 865+1744+1888+9937-(400)=Approx 14000 demand..Similarly for china it will be 360+663+759+5531-100=approx 7300 which brings the total demand for India and China to approx 21300 right.? Even in case porting brings another 1700 demand and 1000 pwmb (since they might not be able to allot visa number ) Wont that move the dates further?My strong intuition is that once they cross the deadine they might make current in Sep bulletin and allow it to stay there for a couple of months and then retrogess back to end of end/last quater of 2007

I we look at the inventory then the total EB2 I/C demand is ~ 22K, the demand data I guess this month should be in the 23.5 - 24K range. The inventory lacks the CP cases and the porting cases are not transferred to EB2 right away looks like they are documented as EB3 till the interfiling is completed after that they are approved straight away if current. There is a chance I would say 30% that the 01-Aug-2007 can be broken this year the Jul bulletin will be like a litmus test for that. We have seen a part of the EB1 spillover being applied earlier than usual. Really we can just hope for the best. They definitely have to open the gate for the next batch when and how it will happen does not have a precedent so it will be interesting.

[nvijay78]

Hi Teddy,1 quick Q here.The spillover estimate which u r mentioning is something yet to be alloted right?In that case,for India it will be 865+1744+1888+9937-(400)=Approx 14000 demand..Similarly for china it will be 360+663+759+5531-100=approx 7300 which brings the total demand for India and China to approx 21300 right.? Even in case porting brings another 1700 demand and 1000 pwmb (since they might not be able to allot visa number ) Wont that move the dates further?My strong intuition is that once they cross the deadine they might make current in Sep bulletin and allow it to stay there for a couple of months and then retrogess back to end of end/last quater of 2007
Thanks Teddy for the clarification. Based on Bestin's comments i think we are looking forward to two types of dates. 1 that will enable us to get our GC's and another that will enable us to apply for i485's and get our EAD's and Ap's. Does the DOS distribute the spill over visa's evenly over the last 3 months? For in that case they seem to be setting themselves up to lose visa's in the last quarter incase USCIS can't keep up with the number of GC's to be issued. 6K gc's a month would be an amazing feat to pull off for USCIS :).

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Teddy for the clarification. Based on Bestin's comments i think we are looking forward to two types of dates. 1 that will enable us to get our GC's and another that will enable us to apply for i485's and get our EAD's and Ap's. Does the DOS distribute the spill over visa's evenly over the last 3 months? For in that case they seem to be setting themselves up to lose visa's in the last quarter incase USCIS can't keep up with the number of GC's to be issued. 6K gc's a month would be an amazing feat to pull off for USCIS :).


This is the kind of concern that most of us who have not filed 485 have. This year they started applying the spillover before the last quarter. We all hope that they will have a fair process to take the next batch well in advance. There is only 1 date in essence for the agencies that is the VB cutoff date if the case is already pre-adjudicated by then it gets approved, for new cases it might take 3-4 months and if in that time the cap numbers run out then it may mean a wait of upto a year. What is most important now how far we can push forward this year itself if we get closer to the 01-Aug-2007 then they open the gate in Sep 2011 itself and retrogress. Unfortunately since there is no precedent to it so its speculative. However I believe that if someone gets current by the July bulletin and files the case on 01-Jul itself then there is a good chance to get approved by Sep 30th.

[GCHope2011]

In the most conservative scenario we will get another 16K which is 8K Sure from EB5 and 4K each from EB2 ROW and EB1 and in the most optimistic scenario its 24K with EB1 and EB2 giving another 4K each. The assumption is 6K EB2 I/C regular cap and 9K EB1 is already consumed. So worst case the dates will be 01-MAR-2007 and best case 01-AUG-2007, most likely 01-MAY-2007. This is just my personal opinion many others have different opinions if everyone could post theirs I will update the header of the thread with the same.
Teddy, my feeling is to also be conservative for now, so that if we get more, then we are happier. So I agree with you on the conservative number.

However, I have a feeling that the best case scenario can potentially give another 12K from EB1 and 10K from EB2 ROW. Add that to the EB4/5 of 8K, and we can potentially get another 30K by the end of the year. This is the absolute best case scenario, if it happens.

[DiffGC]

There is always some percentage of Apps that stays pending even long after they r current, It may not be significant, but might contribute towards balancing PWMB

[maverick2010]

Experts/Gurus, Is there a likelihood that my GC application would get processed in this fiscal year?

[Honda]

Thanks Teddy. I agree with yours. Mine estimate is about the same: http:///2011/05/i-485-inventory-update-and-eb-india.html

The link is broken.

[nvijay78]

This is the kind of concern that most of us who have not filed 485 have. This year they started applying the spillover before the last quarter. We all hope that they will have a fair process to take the next batch well in advance. There is only 1 date in essence for the agencies that is the VB cutoff date if the case is already pre-adjudicated by then it gets approved, for new cases it might take 3-4 months and if in that time the cap numbers run out then it may mean a wait of upto a year. What is most important now how far we can push forward this year itself if we get closer to the 01-Aug-2007 then they open the gate in Sep 2011 itself and retrogress. Unfortunately since there is no precedent to it so its speculative. However I believe that if someone gets current by the July bulletin and files the case on 01-Jul itself then there is a good chance to get approved by Sep 30th.
@cbpds, I notice your comment was erased earlier but, they are not very off on their numbers. We have already got about 12 K of EB1 fallover, and another 16 as Teddy is projecting takes the total number to 30K . Either way i am surprised that there are 28K folks who apply in EB1!. I thought EB1 was for distinguished folks , you had to get 8 reference letters, show that your PHD is something the country needs, review papers et all.

@Teddy: I remember reading on the forum that the 12K could just be the spillover from the first half of the year , given that some people are more aggressive in their estimation of fall over visa's. Is there a way for IV or other folks to get clarity on this? Or have we already cleared this up?

The more i read this thread my interpretation is there are some folks with say priority date before Mar who are guaranteed to get their GC's and then there are folks from March and onwards who will be able to apply for their I485's. I dont know if March is the magic date :) and i sure hope its is more like June or July , which puts me over the hump but somehow after just 5 years i am awfully nervous about anything immigration related! My hat goes off to the folks who have been in the queue for longer durations! Is this interpretation correct or am i just getting last minute jitters!

[cbpds]

Please note that ~9k is already been used from the 12K EB1 spillover acc to Teddy.
Hence we can get 16 to 24k, hence the mar-may-aug scenario....

My post was not only remove but someone removed 400 points from my rating !!

@cbpds, I notice your comment was erased earlier but, they are not very off on their numbers. We have already got about 12 K of EB1 fallover, and another 16 as Teddy is projecting takes the total number to 30K . Either way i am surprised that there are 28K folks who apply in EB1!. I thought EB1 was for distinguished folks , you had to get 8 reference letters, show that your PHD is something the country needs, review papers et all.

@Teddy: I remember reading on the forum that the 12K could just be the spillover from the first half of the year , given that some people are more aggressive in their estimation of fall over visa's. Is there a way for IV or other folks to get clarity on this? Or have we already cleared this up?

The more i read this thread my interpretation is there are some folks with say priority date before Mar who are guaranteed to get their GC's and then there are folks from March and onwards who will be able to apply for their I485's. I dont know if March is the magic date :) and i sure hope its is more like June or July , which puts me over the hump but somehow after just 5 years i am awfully nervous about anything immigration related! My hat goes off to the folks who have been in the queue for longer durations! Is this interpretation correct or am i just getting last minute jitters!

[MYGC2008]

Experts/Gurus, Is there a likelihood that my GC application would get processed in this fiscal year?

I think you have around 4 month time if you have filed on June 1st. Most likely you may get this year. again most likely. Some questions
1) Did your 485 checks cleared?
2) Did you received your I-485 receipt?
3) Have you received your fingerprint notice?

[vijay226]

FY2010-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ----Total
INDIA ----- 6,741 ---19,961 ---3,306 -----824 ------62 ---30,624
CHINA ------6,741 ----6,505 ---3,676 ------98 -----772 ---17,792
MEXICO -----1,835 ------817 ---7,740 -----943 ------50 ---11,385
PHIL. ------- 407 ----2,162 ---3,651 -----563 -------3 ----6,786
ROW -------25,302 ---24,427 --24,058 ---8,620 -----998 ---83,405
Total -----41,026 ---53,872---42,431 --11,048 ---1,885 --150,262


The above are the approvals from last year.

The demand for eb2 row is bit high this year, so we dont get much spillover from eb2, may be max of 6k. Hearing eb1 approvals are down by 40%, so that might give another 5k (12 + 5 = 17) on a best case scenario. 8 to 9k from eb5. We will be short of 2 to 4k inorder to clear the EB2 I/C backlog.

[rodnyb]

I agree. EB2I PD will most likely be in Mar-May 2007 for 09/2011

FY2010-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ----Total
INDIA ----- 6,741 ---19,961 ---3,306 -----824 ------62 ---30,624
CHINA ------6,741 ----6,505 ---3,676 ------98 -----772 ---17,792
MEXICO -----1,835 ------817 ---7,740 -----943 ------50 ---11,385
PHIL. ------- 407 ----2,162 ---3,651 -----563 -------3 ----6,786
ROW -------25,302 ---24,427 --24,058 ---8,620 -----998 ---83,405
Total -----41,026 ---53,872---42,431 --11,048 ---1,885 --150,262


The above are the approvals from last year.

The demand for eb2 row is bit high this year, so we dont get much spillover from eb2, may be max of 6k. Hearing eb1 approvals are down by 40%, so that might give another 5k (12 + 5 = 17) on a best case scenario. 8 to 9k from eb5. We will be short of 2 to 4k inorder to clear the EB2 I/C backlog.

[Rahulkilaru]

Could you please let us know from where did you get this informaiton? If you did any calculations could you please let us know how did you do it.

FY2010-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ----Total
INDIA ----- 6,741 ---19,961 ---3,306 -----824 ------62 ---30,624
CHINA ------6,741 ----6,505 ---3,676 ------98 -----772 ---17,792
MEXICO -----1,835 ------817 ---7,740 -----943 ------50 ---11,385
PHIL. ------- 407 ----2,162 ---3,651 -----563 -------3 ----6,786
ROW -------25,302 ---24,427 --24,058 ---8,620 -----998 ---83,405
Total -----41,026 ---53,872---42,431 --11,048 ---1,885 --150,262


The above are the approvals from last year.

The demand for eb2 row is bit high this year, so we dont get much spillover from eb2, may be max of 6k. Hearing eb1 approvals are down by 40%, so that might give another 5k (12 + 5 = 17) on a best case scenario. 8 to 9k from eb5. We will be short of 2 to 4k inorder to clear the EB2 I/C backlog.

[ambals03]

Could you please let us know from where did you get this informaiton? If you did any calculations could you please let us know how did you do it.

Thats from the official list -- number of green cards issued last Fiscal Year -- http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

[Rahulkilaru]

Thanks.

Thats from the official list -- number of green cards issued last Fiscal Year -- http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

[krupa]

In 2010 there was a spill over within EB3 and Mexico got that benefit, 7740 number allocated to Mexico as against its own quota of 3056. And another 2-3 countries got benefited within 200 to 500 visa numbers in addition to their own quota.

If new I 485 applications are not poured into EB2 during last quarter of 2011 , after progressing the EB2 Priority dates in July /August bulletins, there is a fair chance of spillover of about 25,000 numbers from EB5(10,000), EB1(15000) and another 5000 to India spill over within EB3 itself as EB2 is self sufficient to meet it demand as of now.
(Note: As of June 2011 pending EB2 are 42,465.)

Let us hope well for very badly back logged EB3 India.

Could you please let us know from where did you get this informaiton? If you did any calculations could you please let us know how did you do it.

[belmontboy]

In 2010 there was a spill over within EB3 and Mexico got that benefit, 7740 number allocated to Mexico as against its own quota of 3056. And another 2-3 countries got benefited within 200 to 500 visa numbers in addition to their own quota.

If new I 485 applications are not poured into EB2 during last quarter of 2011 , after progressing the Priority date in July /August bulletins, there is a fair chance of spillover of about 25,000 numbers from EB5(10,000), EB1(15000) and another 5000 to India spill over within EB3 itself as EB2 is self sufficient to meet it demand as of now.
(Note: As of June 2011 pending EB2 are 42,465.)

Let us hope well for very badly back logged EB3 India.

what u smoking man?

EB2-I from oct 2006 to july 2007 has a demand of 22k. Add to this PWMB + Porting.
This would eat up 25k

[krupa]

First you stop smoking/ drinking habbits and then reply in good manner, every body watching this forum. If my calculation are not correct only comment on that.

There are 42,465 pending petitions for EB2 world wide as of now
My calculation based on as of now pending cases from all category. It is mentioned clearly.

what u smoking man?

EB2-I from oct 2006 to july 2007 has a demand of 22k. Add to this PWMB + Porting.
This would eat up 25k

[belmontboy]

First you stop smoking/ drinking habbits and then reply in good manner, every body watching this forum. If my calculation are not correct only comment on that.

There are 42,465 pending petitions for EB2 world wide as of now
My calculation based on as of now pending cases from all category. It is mentioned clearly.

yes, everybody is reading your post too.
It's ignorant and silliness at its best.

Like I said before, first EB2 should hit july 2007.
Even if it hits july 2007, we are not sure whether they will advance EB2 beyond july 2007 or spillover to EB3-ROW/I.
And there is no way that 25k will spillover to EB3-I

without knowing these, why would you write a garbage like that?

[skpanda]

easy folks.. please dont be personal here.... this is a very popular thread that provides meaningful information. Please do not hijack it to have fights...Everybody can post their views no matter how silly or dumb the logic/facts could be. If you can.. then share your knowledge and educate people who may not have all the information.

Good luck !


what u smoking man?

EB2-I from oct 2006 to july 2007 has a demand of 22k. Add to this PWMB + Porting.
This would eat up 25k

First you stop smoking/ drinking habbits and then reply in good manner, every body watching this forum. If my calculation are not correct only comment on that.

There are 42,465 pending petitions for EB2 world wide as of now
My calculation based on as of now pending cases from all category. It is mentioned clearly.

[nvijay78]

come'on kid.. don't be such a moron.

Go back to Page 1 and read-up. Hopefully you'd know how visa allocation works!
Chill guys , I know the whole wait is kind of excruciating :) but relax !. That said if the current availability of visa's exceeds the current demand untill Jul 2007 then extending the EB2 PD might just be a ploy to get more applications into the system for demand prediction and for preadjudication for next year. The real visa's would probably be spilled over to the EB3 folks who might then benefit since those applications might be preadjudicated. This way the pipeline will be built for the next year. Does that make sense?

[EBX-Man]

belmontboy - Take it easy. You could have educated krupa by not being so virulent and in your face. Be a senior member in action not just in signature.

Krupa - What belmont boy says is right. There is no way 25 will spillover to EB3. MY personal opinion is 6 k and even that will go to EB ROW

Take it easy guys !!

[krupa]

Vijay , you are right , that is what I also explained in my very first comment.

I interpreted this information from the data published in USCIS website as well as from immigration-law.com website.

Chill guys , I know the whole wait is kind of excruciating :) but relax !. That said if the current availability of visa's exceeds the current demand untill Jul 2007 then extending the EB2 PD might just be a ploy to get more applications into the system for demand prediction and for preadjudication for next year. The real visa's would probably be spilled over to the EB3 folks who might then benefit since those applications might be preadjudicated. This way the pipeline will be built for the next year. Does that make sense?

[Leo07]

Krupa,

I think you are missing couple of points here. Hope i'm wrong, but I'm 99.9% certain that I'm not( very rarely I'm this sure on anything :))

1. The I-485 inventory as of June 2011, includes EB2 applications upto July 2007 at the max. Because dates have never crossed July 2007 and so EB2-India/China with PD after July 2007 never applied for 485. So, even that inventory is partial because there are lot of PWMB( people who missed the boat, like me) with PD's before July 2007.

2. By June 2011, we are into 9 months of fiscal year( starts in October), so we have already consumed close to 3/4th of annual EB quota( more or less). So, at this given point of time, EB2 had already consumed most of the visas that you are accounting for in your calculations. Not only thatbut we might have consumed most of the 12K that EB1 gave us.( out of your 15 K). We can only hope what-more EB1 can give us now :)

Hope it clears some air.

Guys, we are all learning here, if only we respect each other, we can discuss more openly without the fear of getting rebuked.

Best!
In 2010 there was a spill over within EB3 and Mexico got that benefit, 7740 number allocated to Mexico as against its own quota of 3056. And another 2-3 countries got benefited within 200 to 500 visa numbers in addition to their own quota.

If new I 485 applications are not poured into EB2 during last quarter of 2011 , after progressing the EB2 Priority dates in July /August bulletins, there is a fair chance of spillover of about 25,000 numbers from EB5(10,000), EB1(15000) and another 5000 to India spill over within EB3 itself as EB2 is self sufficient to meet it demand as of now.
(Note: As of June 2011 pending EB2 are 42,465.)

Let us hope well for very badly back logged EB3 India.

[krupa]

1. Plea see my reply in Blue color in the box.
2. I appreciate your comments on my observations, and welcome your corrections if any.

Krupa,

I think you are missing couple of points here. Hope i'm wrong, but I'm 99.9% certain that I'm not( very rarely I'm this sure on anything :))

1. The I-485 inventory as of June 2011, includes EB2 applications upto July 2007 at the max. Because dates have never crossed July 2007 and so EB2-India/China with PD after July 2007 never applied for 485. So, even that inventory is partial because there are lot of PWMB( people who missed the boat, like me) with PD's before July 2007.

Keeping this in mind my statement was qualified with "If new I 485 applications are not poured into EB2 during last quarter of 2011 , after progressing the EB2 Priority dates in July /August bulletins, " , to cover the cases like yours.

There is no official estimate how many of such applications are pending to pour in ( come additionally as new applcation) .


2. By June 2011, we are into 9 months of fiscal year( starts in October), so we have already consumed close to 3/4th of annual EB quota( more or less). So, at this given point of time, EB2 had already consumed most of the visas that you are accounting for in your calculations. Not only thatbut we might have consumed most of the 12K that EB1 gave us.( out of your 15 K). We can only hope what-more EB1 can give us now :)


First 3 quartres in each year USCIS can consume only 30% or 40% of the year quota for that country group , spread over all the three quartres ( I forgotten exact percentage , it is either 30% or 40% ) , the entire balance 70% or 60% ( as the case may be ) used in Last quarter of physical year. ( It is not 3/4 consumed till June 2011 covering 9 months).

Hope it clears some air.

Guys, we are all learning here, if only we respect each other, we can discuss more openly without the fear of getting rebuked.

Best!

[belmontboy]

1. Plea see my reply in Blue color in the box.
2. I appreciate your comments on my observations, and welcome your corrections if any.

Mr Krupa,

I am explaining this to you again.

Even if nobody files for 485, there are about 22k EB2-I apps pre-adjudicated and ready for a visa number. So all the spillover's will be allocated to these folks and possibly to china too
This thread has estimated spillover tobe around 22k or so.

[krupa]

Hi Belmontboy

I do not know from where you get 22K figure, but I am on higher side with 42K (Published from USCIS) worldwide including India and China etc and includes both adjudicated, but does not include which are not filed because of PD is not current as of now.

Of course spill over from EB1 and EB4, EB 5 , in the first instance goes to most retrogressed country in EB2 for which its own nubers have been consumed and still there is backlog for that country. (i.e Before using the spill over , its own quota has to be consumed by that country)

Since there are 42 K pending I485 applications, which is less than the total numbers available for this EB2 category , so certainly there will be spill over to EB3 to India which is most retrogressed country in EB3 , provided no new applications come in during July to Sep 2011 months or upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and adjudicated.

Comments are welcome

Mr Krupa,

I am explaining this to you again.

Even if nobody files for 485, there are about 22k EB2-I apps pre-adjudicated and ready for a visa number. So all the spillover's will be allocated to these folks and possibly to china too
This thread has estimated spillover tobe around 22k or so.

[belmontboy]

Hi Bemontboy

I do not know from where you get 22K figure, but I am on higher side with 42K (Published from USCIS) worldwide including India and China etc and includes both adjudicated, but does not not which are not filed because of PD is not current as of now.

Of course spill over from EB1 and EB4, EB 5 , in the first instance goes to most retrogressed countries for which its own nubers have been consumed and still there is backlog for that country. (i.e Before using the spill over , its own quota has to be consumed by that country)

Since there are 42 K pending I485 applications, which is less than the total numbers available for this EB2 category , so certainly there will be spill over to EB3, provided no new applications come in during July to Sep 2011 months or upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and adjudic

Comments are welcome




22k is just for EB2-I. You are right too, 42k for entire EB2. This 42k is for dates between oct 2006 to july 2007.( current for ROW)

Regular quota + spillover's are just enough ( or fall short) to meet 42k. ( remember 75% of regular quota has already been allocated. Only 25% remains for last quarter)

[Leo07]

Ok. let's start from your calculations....

You say the EB2 current inventory is 42K
Total Spill over as per you is 25K

Let us say, the EB2 has consumed only 60% of it's annual quota. ( In my opinion it is 80% by the end of June). 40% of 40 K = 16K

16+25=41, still a 1000 short to satisfy existing Eb2 demand.

PS: All these math is hypothetical, just to convey my point.

Hi Belmontboy

I do not know from where you get 22K figure, but I am on higher side with 42K (Published from USCIS) worldwide including India and China etc and includes both adjudicated, but does not not which are not filed because of PD is not current as of now.

Of course spill over from EB1 and EB4, EB 5 , in the first instance goes to most retrogressed country in EB2 for which its own nubers have been consumed and still there is backlog for that country. (i.e Before using the spill over , its own quota has to be consumed by that country)

Since there are 42 K pending I485 applications, which is less than the total numbers available for this EB2 category , so certainly there will be spill over to EB3 to India which is most retrogressed country in EB3 , provided no new applications come in during July to Sep 2011 months or upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and adjudicated.

Comments are welcome

[TeddyKoochu]

In 2010 there was a spill over within EB3 and Mexico got that benefit, 7740 number allocated to Mexico as against its own quota of 3056. And another 2-3 countries got benefited within 200 to 500 visa numbers in addition to their own quota.

If new I 485 applications are not poured into EB2 during last quarter of 2011 , after progressing the EB2 Priority dates in July /August bulletins, there is a fair chance of spillover of about 25,000 numbers from EB5(10,000), EB1(15000) and another 5000 to India spill over within EB3 itself as EB2 is self sufficient to meet it demand as of now.
(Note: As of June 2011 pending EB2 are 42,465.)

Let us hope well for very badly back logged EB3 India.

Warm welcome to you its nice to see new folks join in. Please don't take any of the comments in a wrong way many of those who have responded to you have been here for long their intentions are good, we should all refrain from being emotional & personal though

Firstly let me clear a mis-conception what happened in EB3-Mexico is not spillover. There is a 7% country limit rule. The EB1 and EB2 usage for Mexico is low so this allows Mexico to pull in extra numbers for EB3 which could be 2 - 2.5 times of their quota itself. At this rate EB3-Mexico will catch up with EB3-ROW soon. This is precisely the reason why EB3-I and China lost out visas in 2009 along with ROW, in 2010 EB3 I/C got their fair share but EB3-ROW was bleeding to cater to EB3 Mexico & Philippines extra allocation for EB3.

Now as others have pointed out that there are cases in EB1 & EB2 ROW ~ 20K by the inventory and EB2 I/C ~ 24K these will potentially consume everything that is available in the last quarter in fact this demand is still so high that supply will likely fall short. Additionally this number does not even include PWMB cases.

Next year for sure this scenario will be revisited if new intake of EB2 I/C China applications is not done then there maybe spillover by default to EB3. Unfortunately you have seen the examples of real application of the 7% rule so all ROW countries part of EB3 can potentially take visas so that they come to 7% level this will deprive EB3 I/C of virtually any spillover. The reason why Eb2 I/C is getting the spillover is that EB2 ROW is current if that was not the case then EB2 ROW would have consumed all the spillover.

Unfortunately for EB3 - I the choice of spillover is really of the devil and deep sea either way its going to be hard, EB2 ROW and EB2-I/C are atleast 5 years away from being literally current. Best option if your PD is ahead of Jan 2002 is PD porting, it will practically take 2 more years for EB3-I to cross 2002.

[red200]

teddy,

Per the inventory 20K demand exists for EB1,
But will all these guys get the 485 approved.

If not then doesnt it give numbers to EB2 ?

[TeddyKoochu]

teddy,

Per the inventory 20K demand exists for EB1,
But will all these guys get the 485 approved.

If not then doesnt it give numbers to EB2 ?

The ~ 20K total is both EB1 and EB2 ROW now this buffer has always been ~ 17K with all inventories. Typically there are issues with these cases like a) RFE's b) Being from countries of interest c) Longer scrutiny due to Kazarian memo or other reasons. In terms of numbers yes if they open the gate for them they can consume everything but since these kind of numbers have always been there we should not worry about it too much.

[la_2002_ch]

Teddy,

Since we dont see any/many approvals from both TSC and NSC since the past 2-3 days for the PDs that are current; you think this is some sign of the things to come in the Jul Bulletin?

Maybe they found that not as many VISA numbers are available and stopped the approvals?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Since we dont see any/many approvals from both TSC and NSC since the past 2-3 days for the PDs that are current; you think this is some sign of the things to come in the Jul Bulletin?

Maybe they found that not as many VISA numbers are available and stopped the approvals?

I believe that they will try to gauge if they are able to approve most of the cases before issuing the next VB. Having people not approved is a bad sign. I don't know the trend is mixed Monday there was a lot of news about the approvals. Lets hope everybody gets approved in many cases the emails / sms , status does not get updated people just get the card by mails. Many folks also don't come back to update their status so the picture maybe a little better.

[vijay226]

Teddy,

Since we dont see any/many approvals from both TSC and NSC since the past 2-3 days for the PDs that are current; you think this is some sign of the things to come in the Jul Bulletin?

Maybe they found that not as many VISA numbers are available and stopped the approvals?
Seems to be some batch job which runs weekly. Might see some flury of approvals during the weekend.

numbers so far:

Oct 2006 9% 4 years 4 months
Sep 2006 16% 4 years 5 months
Aug 2006 15% 4 years 9 months
Jul 2006 16% 4 years 10 months
Jun 2006 59% 4 years 10 months
May 2006 69% 4 years 5 months

Might jump to 30 to 40 % this weekend.

As we can see 20 to 30% folks are not updating the status once they get the gc.

[nvijay78]

I believe that they will try to gauge if they are able to approve most of the cases before issuing the next VB. Having people not approved is a bad sign. I don't know the trend is mixed Monday there was a lot of news about the approvals. Lets hope everybody gets approved in many cases the emails / sms , status does not get updated people just get the card by mails. Many folks also don't come back to update their status so the picture maybe a little better.
the concern here is exactly what i was talking about earlier. It seems that USCIS is not able to keep up with PD movement the way DOS is progressing it. At the end this means that having your priority date current does not guarantee you a green card but just means that you have a high likely hood of getting a green card , the only difference from earlier being that the probability is now much lower, causing visa's to go wasted in the last month. The big advantage is folks who are current can now apply for the i485's . However for example even though my PD is mar 07 and there is a likely hood that my PD might become current i would have a 40 to 50% confidence that i will actually get a GC this year. I dont mean to be an alarmist, but i know of folks who were current in May still not receiving their GC's

[red200]

The ~ 20K total is both EB1 and EB2 ROW now this buffer has always been ~ 17K with all inventories. Typically there are issues with these cases like a) RFE's b) Being from countries of interest c) Longer scrutiny due to Kazarian memo or other reasons. In terms of numbers yes if they open the gate for them they can consume everything but since these kind of numbers have always been there we should not worry about it too much.
Teddy ,

What i am trying to say is

Revisiting EB1 spill over
12, 000 is guarenteed.

total number left in Eb1 42,000 - 12,000 = 30,000

out of these 30000, the demand from the EB1 visa's that is not approved is ~ 9500

if this 9500 is not part of the 42000, EB1 would not have been current.

so is it possible for all these 9500 visa's be approved by sept 2011 ?
If atleast some of them are not approved they will spill over to EB2, because they have to.

but how much of them will not be approved is a question,

Teddy, Have you considered this scenario in your calculations ?
if yes can you think of the number from 9500 ?





Demand in

[red200]

Just check previous inventory in Jan that is 8500. Now in may its 9500
I doubt they will clear in sept 2011 , Because it seems it is increasing and there is no constraint for these numbers unless they really are struck.

so may be a significant amount will spill over from this, I may be totally wrong

[dontcareaboutGC]

I believe that they will try to gauge if they are able to approve most of the cases before issuing the next VB. Having people not approved is a bad sign. I don't know the trend is mixed Monday there was a lot of news about the approvals. Lets hope everybody gets approved in many cases the emails / sms , status does not get updated people just get the card by mails. Many folks also don't come back to update their status so the picture maybe a little better.
TK- I do think the dates will move past Jan 07 this coming bulletin- I dont think visa wastage is an option any more for DOS and CIS. Besides I think we are putting too much value to approvals "reported by people" in June- primarily since people once get approved may not update that information. Personally I think using that information is likely to point us in the incorrect direction....as has done so in the past

Do we seriously think that approvals have slowed down- or do we think that people who are getting approved are not reporting- I will rather believe the latter !!

[kart2007]

TK- I do think the dates will move past Jan 07 this coming bulletin- I dont think visa wastage is an option any more for DOS and CIS. Besides I think we are putting too much value to approvals "reported by people" in June- primarily since people once get approved may not update that information. Personally I think using that information is likely to point us in the incorrect direction....as has done so in the past

Do we seriously think that approvals have slowed down- or do we think that people who are getting approved are not reporting- I will rather believe the latter !!

Two of my friends who have their PD current (Aug 2006) are yet to get their approvals, so I guess the approvals are moving at a slow place. I still told my friend to be patient till at least a month and then expect the approvals.

[tanu_75]

Do we seriously think that approvals have slowed down- or do we think that people who are getting approved are not reporting- I will rather believe the latter !!

Its dangerous to make that assumption when we know how crappy USCIS can be. Also why would people suddenly stop reporting when in the past the tracker websites have shown that they do. the only question is what's the latency between GC approval and update on the website of status.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Two of my friends who have their PD current (Aug 2006) are yet to get their approvals, so I guess the approvals are moving at a slow place. I still told my friend to be patient till at least a month and then expect the approvals.
I understand- The reasons of approvals could be many- but theories such as " deliberate slowing down of approvals" so as to ensure dates dont move seem to be suggested to which I am saying that perhaps we are misreading the information and that we should look at the number and base our estimations on it and not necessarily number of approvals done. Consider how many people are in EB2 India pre-2006 Oct? Relate that to the number of approvals done per month historically by CIS assuming the application is clear and straight- then the numbers will not add up which is what I am getting at...

[dontcareaboutGC]

Its dangerous to make that assumption when we know how crappy USCIS can be. Also why would people suddenly stop reporting when in the past the tracker websites have shown that they do. the only question is what's the latency between GC approval and update on the website of status.
Agreed- Hence I am saying that the numbers published by the agencies is what brings more relevance to the discussion and not assuming other information which is more dependant on the ability of the applicant to report it....

It is dangerous but CIS and DOS have improved vastly- Even though the standards by which they work may not be ever the greatest because we judge them on how soon and how quickly they can process our own application. But realize this that from where they were and where they are I really think they have done tons to improve the process and bring clarity to it....not there yet but will take time to get there...remember you can fix lazy but cannot fix stupid-- USCIS is lazy but not stupid- atleast the policy setters!

Though I am playing the devil's advocate I have to believe that people who run those agencies have far more understanding and data available to them then we do..and think about it- if they start goofing up the pressure on them is bound to increase by leaps and bounds by advocacy groups and eventually they are answerable- to us!

[tanu_75]

It is dangerous but CIS and DOS have improved vastly- Even though the standards by which they work may not be ever the greatest because we judge them on how soon and how quickly they can process our own application. But realize this that from where they were and where they are I really think they have done tons to improve the process and bring clarity to it....


Agree on that point. We definitely have more data and actually for that kudos to IV core for pushing that issue a few years back.


Though I am playing the devil's advocate I have to believe that people who run those agencies have far more understanding and data available to them then we do..
if they start goofing up the pressure on them is bound to increase by leaps and bounds by advocacy groups and eventually they are answerable- to us!

answerable to us- yes. But they also don't really care. I hope you have not forgotten that even the Senators cannot get USCIS to provide them with data on request. Yes the pressure is up, but we are pretty much at their mercy.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Agree on that point. We definitely have more data and actually for that kudos to IV core for pushing that issue a few years back.



answerable to us- yes. But they also don't really care. I hope you have not forgotten that even the Senators cannot get USCIS to provide them with data on request. Yes the pressure is up, but we are pretty much at their mercy.

I dont know this fact for sure at all- we are basing this information about USCIS not submitting information to congress on what some "famous" lawyers say on their blog. Officially we have not heard anything. Atleast I have never heard any Senator complain about it...neither have I heard AILA say anything to that effect other than this " lawyer" and we are and should not be privy to all the things that happen behind the scenes- in the federal agencies....which I am absolutely positive happens in much more detail than we are aware of... citing national security...their discussions dont have to be open to public...besides think of the Employee- Employer Memo- was their any public discussion held - possibly not- it moved internally within USCIS.

Just based on the FOIA campaign IV had a few years back we were able to get some information from them..so I would assume that people in congress definately get information from them as, when and if needed.......so in my mind we glean information floating around and use that as a measurement stick- which may be inaccurate.

I am firm believer of data and facts- while other things can be tweaked and twisted based on what best serves individual interests

[TeddyKoochu]

TK- I do think the dates will move past Jan 07 this coming bulletin- I dont think visa wastage is an option any more for DOS and CIS. Besides I think we are putting too much value to approvals "reported by people" in June- primarily since people once get approved may not update that information. Personally I think using that information is likely to point us in the incorrect direction....as has done so in the past

Do we seriously think that approvals have slowed down- or do we think that people who are getting approved are not reporting- I will rather believe the latter !!

Two of my friends who have their PD current (Aug 2006) are yet to get their approvals, so I guess the approvals are moving at a slow place. I still told my friend to be patient till at least a month and then expect the approvals.

Its dangerous to make that assumption when we know how crappy USCIS can be. Also why would people suddenly stop reporting when in the past the tracker websites have shown that they do. the only question is what's the latency between GC approval and update on the website of status.

Looks like there is truth in both the things, approvals have not been reported in the volume expected and probably may are not reporting them anyway. The good way to verify will be the demand data for the next VB if I+C is 23.5K then everything should be good.

Teddy ,

What i am trying to say is

Revisiting EB1 spill over
12, 000 is guarenteed.

total number left in Eb1 42,000 - 12,000 = 30,000

out of these 30000, the demand from the EB1 visa's that is not approved is ~ 9500

if this 9500 is not part of the 42000, EB1 would not have been current.

so is it possible for all these 9500 visa's be approved by sept 2011 ?
If atleast some of them are not approved they will spill over to EB2, because they have to.

but how much of them will not be approved is a question,

Teddy, Have you considered this scenario in your calculations ?
if yes can you think of the number from 9500 ?





Demand in

Just check previous inventory in Jan that is 8500. Now in may its 9500
I doubt they will clear in sept 2011 , Because it seems it is increasing and there is no constraint for these numbers unless they really are struck.

so may be a significant amount will spill over from this, I may be totally wrong

If you notice a lot of them they are in months previous to even the last 4 months so they are truly stuck. These are again normal numbers with a slight upside. If 50% of them get approved by Sep 2011 we are still good.

[gc_vbin]

I just read on the "other site(Q)" that there will be significant movement in July bulletin and that they know it from a trustworthy source... they also mention quoting the "source" that if people were happy with June movement then they will be happier with July movement..

[belmontboy]

IMHO, between may 2007 - july 2007

[voicerj]

IMHO, between may 2007 - july 2007

Are you talking about may 2007 - july 2007 in July bulletin itself ?

[nvijay78]

I just read on the "other site(Q)" that there will be significant movement in July bulletin and that they know it from a trustworthy source... they also mention quoting the "source" that if people were happy with June movement then they will be happier with July movement..
Mind sharing what this other site is .. like maybe even a name that i can search on ? May 2007 seems so improbably but if thats true , its a big movement!. Teddy, what is the scenario in which this can happen?

by the way the 75 dollars out of a target of 1000 is really a sorry state of affairs, while i have been guilty of sitting on the sidelines i just donated 50 dollars to the cause, if you can afford it s a worthy cause to donate to! lets meet this months target!

[EBX-Man]

I just read on the "other site(Q)" that there will be significant movement in July bulletin and that they know it from a trustworthy source... they also mention quoting the "source" that if people were happy with June movement then they will be happier with July movement..

Significant movement in EB2 I ? or significant movement in all categories?

[TeddyKoochu]

Mind sharing what this other site is .. like maybe even a name that i can search on ? May 2007 seems so improbably but if thats true , its a big movement!. Teddy, what is the scenario in which this can happen?

by the way the 75 dollars out of a target of 1000 is really a sorry state of affairs, while i have been guilty of sitting on the sidelines i just donated 50 dollars to the cause, if you can afford it s a worthy cause to donate to! lets meet this months target!

In the agencies terms even 3-4 months movement is significant movement. So if there is an allocation of 8K numbers then the dates may move to Feb 2007. Personally I would hope that if most of the pre-adjudicated cases are going to be approved by Sep 2011 they should do the new intake right now.

[gc_vbin]

I think they are talking mainly about EB2-I coz the thread itself is for EB2 movement
Significant movement in EB2 I ? or significant movement in all categories?

[belmontboy]

Are you talking about may 2007 - july 2007 in July bulletin itself ?

Yes

That would help them utilize all the spillover's without any wastage.(deferring significant movement to last month would mean visa wastage)

[nvijay78]

Yes

That would help them utilize all the spillover's without any wastage.(deferring significant movement to last month would mean visa wastage)
This makes so much more sense to do. Move the dates aggresively so in the next two bulletins they cover whatever demand they can really satisfy in terms of GC and use the last month to just build the pipeline for the next few years. Totally avoids the last minute scramble and wastage of visa's .

[penna]

In the agencies terms even 3-4 months movement is significant movement. So if there is an allocation of 8K numbers then the dates may move to Feb 2007. Personally I would hope that if most of the pre-adjudicated cases are going to be approved by Sep 2011 they should do the new intake right now.
I think the movemnt would be in the range of 6-9 months ; observe what the CO's words - If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July.
This should mean a movement of 6-9 months; So, I think the CD should be between April - July in the July bulletin

[nvijay78]

In the agencies terms even 3-4 months movement is significant movement. So if there is an allocation of 8K numbers then the dates may move to Feb 2007. Personally I would hope that if most of the pre-adjudicated cases are going to be approved by Sep 2011 they should do the new intake right now.
Id rather they do this in the end of year. this way two things happen. The next two months USCIS just devotes its entire time to clear the huge number of cases they have to, and then in the last month if there are left over visa's they can be allocated to some of the EB3 cases to ease the demand there too. End of year or the last visa bulleting they just open it up get every one to apply and then retrogress back begining of next year.

[krupa]

As I read earlier, in one of the experienced attorney website, in first 3 quarters all put together USCIS can issue 27% of worldwide level. The clause say it cannot exceed 27% in any of the quarter and not in each quarter.

There is a logic also for this condition , as there are more than 100 countries which will get 7% quota for each of them, so USCIS will allocate the numbers for each country based on the number of applications by each country and restricting not more than 7% by each country in the last quarter of the year. Otherwise for example some 15 countries
(15x7=105%) will consume most of the numbers. That is the reason they allocate 73% of total numbers in the last quarter only.

An attorney in this forum , hope, will clarify.

Krupa,

Your premise is flawed.

By law, DOS can not use more than 27% of the visas in each of the first 3 quarters, so by the end of Q3 they can have used as many as 81% of the total.

[skpanda]

I would imagine they would move the dates to atleast mid-2008 before Sept 2011 to build about 40K applications. Retrogess back in Q1 of FY2012.

Good luck to all!
This makes so much more sense to do. Move the dates aggresively so in the next two bulletins they cover whatever demand they can really satisfy in terms of GC and use the last month to just build the pipeline for the next few years. Totally avoids the last minute scramble and wastage of visa's .

[skpanda]

I guess we are not allowed to provide links to other sites in these forums.

If you are interested just google 'eb2 predictions rather calculations'. You will find what you are looking for.

Good Luck!

Mind sharing what this other site is .. like maybe even a name that i can search on ? May 2007 seems so improbably but if thats true , its a big movement!. Teddy, what is the scenario in which this can happen?

[stemcell]

I just read on the "other site(Q)" that there will be significant movement in July bulletin and that they know it from a trustworthy source... they also mention quoting the "source" that if people were happy with June movement then they will be happier with July movement..

gc_vbin
Can you please mention which site it was mentioned ?
On many occasions in the past speculation has had people excited/optimistic only to be disappointed when the official VB was released.

[stemcell]

I guess we are not allowed to provide links to other sites in these forums.

If you are interested just google 'eb2 predictions rather calculations'. You will find what you are looking for.

Good Luck!

ok never mind....this blog is by qsehmk....no wonder i dont see him around these parts.

[skpanda]

Last month the source in Q's site also gave advance information and it turned out to be good. We hope that this month's information comes out to be true and many people are able to get GCs or file 485s.

I would imagine that Feb 2007 cut off date is given (based on the information from source). Maximum would be Apr 2007.

Good Luck to all who would be around those dates!!

gc_vbin
Can you please mention which site it was mentioned ?
On many occasions in the past speculation has had people excited/optimistic only to be disappointed when the official VB was released.

[cbpds]

Its funny that the same userIds here are in that site as well, except for pappu.

Just a fact, there goes my ratings in the drain again :mad:

[dontcareaboutGC]

Its funny that the same userIds here are in that site as well, except for pappu.

Just a fact, there goes my ratings in the drain again :mad:
nice!

[skpanda]

I do not see any reason why anybody would have problem with that.... This is not a loyalty program. People will be part of initiatives/sites that gives them good information. Also, it is for our common good if we share information from other sites (and give credit ofcourse).

At the end of the day our objective is to gain as much information as possible to help take important personal and professional decisions in lives.

Good Luck to all who will get greened this year! May your GC (and freedom) be approved soon!
S




Its funny that the same userIds here are in that site as well, except for pappu.

Just a fact, there goes my ratings in the drain again :mad:

[red200]

Teddy,

What do you think percentage is now to reach Aug 2007 or beyond, If the July Bulleting passes Mar 2007 or april 2007.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

What do you think percentage is now to reach Aug 2007 or beyond, If the July Bulleting passes Mar 2007 or april 2007.

If we cross Feb 2007 then 50%, if we cross Mar 2007 then 65%. Good Luck to us all.

[voicerj]

If we cross Feb 2007 then 50%, if we cross Mar 2007 then 65%. Good Luck to us all.

Teddy - You have to be current my dear friend. I will pray for you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy - You have to be current my dear friend. I will pray for you.

Thanks a lot I greatly appreciate it, pray for all the PWMB's we have waited for the last 4 years just for the dates to be current to be able to file for 485.

[nvijay78]

Teddy - You have to be current my dear friend. I will pray for you.
NIce one voicerJ, by praying for teddy to be current you are also praying for yourself to be current ! :) The other question teddy are you more confident that the dates will progress into February ? My PD is Mar 07 and i am now getting more and more nervously optimistic of ending this long journey that i actually started in 2003 this year .

[voicerj]

Thanks a lot I greatly appreciate it, pray for all the PWMB's we have waited for the last 4 years just for the dates to be current to be able to file for 485.

Very true, waited too long.

Hope this wait becomes little easier(with EAD & AP) if not completed in next 3 months.
fingers crossed and praying for something good to happen this time.

[voicerj]

NIce one voicerJ, by praying for teddy to be current you are also praying for yourself to be current ! :) The other question teddy are you more confident that the dates will progress into February ? My PD is Mar 07 and i am now getting more and more nervously optimistic of ending this long journey that i actually started in 2003 this year .

Why not, but think about this in the other way. I could have prayed till june end..... haha :) just kiddn'g.

Hope as many people get current and end their long journey this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

NIce one voicerJ, by praying for teddy to be current you are also praying for yourself to be current ! :) The other question teddy are you more confident that the dates will progress into February ? My PD is Mar 07 and i am now getting more and more nervously optimistic of ending this long journey that i actually started in 2003 this year .

Iam hopeful that things will progress, the news definitely helps in that direction. If the dates move till Feb now itself then moving to Aug 2007 is possible I have been maintaining that.

Coming to your case being current for you by Sep 2011 is a certainty; it would be say 30% in Jul Bulletin, 90% in Aug bulletin and 100% in Sep bulletin.

[vijay226]

Approximately 131,000 additional visa numbers were made available from a provision in the law that permitted the rollover of unused numbers in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 into subsequent years. Of these, 30,000 were used in fiscal year (FY) 2003. The remaining numbers are expected to be completely used in FY2005.

Saw the above from a different site. Can we have similiar provison of unused visas for the coming years. It happened before, can we have this again?. This will enormously help eb3 and eb2 I/C.

[nvijay78]

Approximately 131,000 additional visa numbers were made available from a provision in the law that permitted the rollover of unused numbers in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 into subsequent years. Of these, 30,000 were used in fiscal year (FY) 2003. The remaining numbers are expected to be completely used in FY2005.

Saw the above from a different site. Can we have similiar provison of unused visas for the coming years. It happened before, can we have this again?. This will enormously help eb3 and eb2 I/C.
My friend, if we had this visa recapture , retrogression would be a thing of the past. This is believe is something that IV is working towards. However this hasn't been possible for the last 4 years!. If you recapture visa's then it will not only clear EB2 backlog but even EB3

[mach1343]

Thanks a lot I greatly appreciate it, pray for all the PWMB's we have waited for the last 4 years just for the dates to be current to be able to file for 485.

I totally agree, Mine was Feb 2nd 2007 and I missed the boat because of the stupid Atlanta processing center which took almost 9 months to get the labor cleared and I missed by 10 days.....Now thats called the frustration for 4 years 4months and still going.....when most of the people after me got their EADs atleast and I am stuck with the H1 to a consulting firm who makes sure they get enough blood from me for their thirst....

Pray for all the PWMBs

[snathan]

I totally agree, Mine was Feb 2nd 2007 and I missed the boat because of the stupid Atlanta processing center which took almost 9 months to get the labor cleared and I missed by 10 days.....Now thats called the frustration for 4 years 4months and still going.....when most of the people after me got their EADs atleast and I am stuck with the H1 to a consulting firm who makes sure they get enough blood from me for their thirst....

Pray for all the PWMBs

Pray for everyone...

[letstalklc]

Thanks a lot I greatly appreciate it, pray for all the PWMB's we have waited for the last 4 years just for the dates to be current to be able to file for 485.

100% true, who all are missed that bus, eagerly waiting to file their 485's, especially the way people are getting stuck with Admin processing these days at different consulates........

Good luck to all....

[ahaly]

waiting for the next vb!

[Leo07]

On a lighter note, I can see why you( or I) would want TeddyK to be current :)
Teddy - You have to be current my dear friend. I will pray for you.

[voicerj]

On a lighter note, I can see why you( or I) would want TeddyK to be current :)

What is your specific PD ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I totally agree, Mine was Feb 2nd 2007 and I missed the boat because of the stupid Atlanta processing center which took almost 9 months to get the labor cleared and I missed by 10 days.....Now thats called the frustration for 4 years 4months and still going.....when most of the people after me got their EADs atleast and I am stuck with the H1 to a consulting firm who makes sure they get enough blood from me for their thirst....

Pray for all the PWMBs

I think most of the cases that went to Atlanta were stuck, I did not even know this until Leo told me. My story is exactly the same working with a consulting company, just to add its not even safe to go to India without EAD / AP.

On a lighter note, I can see why you( or I) would want TeddyK to be current :)

Thanks Leo & Vocerj :) Lets all pray together

Pray for everyone...

Lets all pray and hope for the best the Jul VB is very important to all.

[nvijay78]

I think most of the cases that went to Atlanta were stuck, I did not even know this until Leo told me. My story is exactly the same working with a consulting company, just to add its not even safe to go to India without EAD / AP.



Thanks Leo & Vocerj :) Lets all pray together



Lets all pray and hope for the best the Jul VB is very important to all.
When is the July bulletin likley . Last month they released it on a wednesday. Is it usually arround the 10th of the month ? or do you think we will have to wait till wednesday.

[letstalklc]

When is the July bulletin likley . Last month they released it on a wednesday. Is it usually arround the 10th of the month ? or do you think we will have to wait till wednesday.

I guess, Most likely this Friday......

[rakesh76]

while reading all you guys story i am feeling i was little lucky in 2007.
I got my labor approved in 10 days and filed my 485 on the last day (17th aug 2007). after 17th USCIS stop taking 485 application. i got my EAD in 2.5 months. my priority date is 19th July 2007(EB2).

wishing good luck to all you guys. days are not far to get GC....

[voicerj]

What would be the next processing date for EB2 India in July Visa Bulletin? Somewhere I saw people predicting up to December 15, 2006.

Is it possible?

December 15, 2006 is highly possible but now the predictions are around Feb or March 2007 but remember these all are predictions based on numbers and nothing can be sure till actual visa bulletin and nobody can predict what USCIS & DOS are planning.

[maverick2010]

I think you have around 4 month time if you have filed on June 1st. Most likely you may get this year. again most likely. Some questions
1) Did your 485 checks cleared?
2) Did you received your I-485 receipt?
3) Have you received your fingerprint notice?

Application just got to the USCIS today.

[vijay226]

Seeing some approvals today. It appears,CIS officers are working from wed thru sun :)

[snthampi]

I think they are talking mainly about EB2-I coz the thread itself is for EB2 movement

Who told you that? Did you even read the title of the thread?

[gc_vbin]

Yes I did read the title of the thread. Thats the reason I think they are talking mainly about EB2-I (The title of that thread is "EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)")
You are welcome to comment if you think it is otherwise.
Who told you that? Did you even read the title of the thread?

[EBX-Man]

Yes I did read the title of the thread. Thats the reason I think they are talking mainly about EB2-I (The title of that thread is "EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)")h You are welcome to comment if you think it is otherwise.

I had decided not to reply to your reply because i assumed that the thread you were referring to was a thread in an outside site where you referenced your talking topic, but i see now that you were referring to this thread.

Let me clear your misconception. This thread is named EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II). Not that it means anything or has any value for EB3, but just to clarify and negate your above post.

[gc_vbin]

EBX-Man - What you had assumed was correct. I was infact referring to the thread in another site. I'm not able to understand what made you think that I was referring to this thread. In my above post I clearly refer it as "that thread" and NOT "this thread"

As I mentioned in my above post the thread in the "other" site is titled "EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)" and I just posted what I read there. I hope you are clear now.

I had decided not to reply to your reply because i assumed that the thread you were referring to was a thread in an outside site where you referenced your talking topic, but i see now that you were referring to this thread.

Let me clear your misconception. This thread is named EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II). Not that it means anything or has any value for EB3, but just to clarify and negate your above post.

[AllIsWell]

i think we should see the july bulletin tomorrow on at the max by next friday

[EBX-Man]

EBX-Man - What you had assumed was correct. I was infact referring to the thread in another site. I'm not able to understand what made you think that I was referring to this thread. In my above post I clearly refer it as "that thread" and NOT "this thread"

As I mentioned in my above post the thread in the "other" site is titled "EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)" and I just posted what I read there. I hope you are clear now.

Ok so my intial understanding was correct. Sorry for the confusion.
Carry on with your EB2 predictions

[waitingnwaiting]

EBX-Man - What you had assumed was correct.

How much are you being paid to advertise other site? Or maybe you own that other site and trying to advertise here secretly?

Stop posting Bull that someone has inside sources and those predictions are authentic. If someone is posting such false information it can be reported to authorities and that person can be booked on charges. These are all tactics for cheap publicity. That guy is greedy and has google ads to make money for his for profit veture. He does not care if we do advocacy day or if we get a bill. We forget that the data other sites are using for predictions is only because of Immigrationvoice. Immigration voice ran an FOIA campiagn and got it. None of those sites give credit to IV or even have message to support the non profit IV.

[EBX-Man]

How much are you being paid to advertise other site? Or maybe you own that other site and trying to advertise here secretly?

Stop posting Bull that someone has inside sources and those predictions are authentic. If someone is posting such false information it can be reported to authorities and that person can be booked on charges. These are all tactics for cheap publicity. That guy is greedy and has google ads to make money for his for profit veture. He does not care if we do advocacy day or if we get a bill. We forget that the data other sites are using for predictions is only because of Immigrationvoice. Immigration voice ran an FOIA campiagn and got it. None of those sites give credit to IV or even have message to support the non profit IV.

Chill out man. The discussion which gcvin and i had was related to the title of the thread and not related to predictions and authenticity of other sites. As far as i know IV site had got the best predictions till date. You being an senior member of IV should not have such pangs and angst against other sites. Let other sites do their job and let IV do its job. More the avenues for help/information for EB immigrants the better. After all is that not the motivation and drive behind starting IV in the first place?

[waitingnwaiting]

Chill out man. The discussion which gcvin and i had was related to the title of the thread and not related to predictions and authenticity of other sites. As far as i know IV site had got the best predictions till date. You being an senior member of IV should not have such pangs and angst against other sites. Let other sites do their job and let IV do its job. More the avenues for help/information for EB immigrants the better. After all is that not the motivation and drive behind starting IV in the first place?

Incorrect. It shows you still have no idea what IV is. Spend some time reading the about us page and other documents on this site instead of wasting time on forums.
There were many sites/avenenes to get help and information even before IV. So IV was not created for information. IV was created to remove retrogression.

[EBX-Man]

Incorrect. It shows you still have no idea what IV is. Spend some time reading the about us page and other documents on this site instead of wasting time on forums.
There were many sites/avenenes to get help and information even before IV. So IV was not created for information. IV was created to remove retrogression.

Yes i agree IV was created to remove retrogression but the topic on hand was not removal of retrogression but getting help and information and in that a user can reference any and all sites. Collaboration is the keyword here !!!

[skpanda]

take it easy my friend. It appears as if you have some personal problem with the person who started the other site.

First regarding google ads. Most other sites have ads for the same reason that IV has ads in our forums. i.e. to be able to generate some revenue to sustain the site and their initiatives. Some sites have more ads while some sites have bare minimum to sustain the operations. It all depends on what kind of initiatives they undertake. IV has a huge number of initiatives therefore IV has ads and requests donations. That is perfectly normal and without which IV cannot function effectively.

Second, the very basic purpose of why IV started was to create awareness and information sharing among people and slowly it became a strong force (thanks to very dedicated members) that could take up additional initiatives such as advocacy etc. Its no small feat that IV is usually considered a party to discussions taken up by Immigration Department. This does not mean only IV should be the torch bearer or have exclusive rights to share information. If there are other sites/initiatives that people want to be part of it should be welcomed. Shutting ourselves to the outer world is not good for our cause and common good.

Third, most members of IV and other sites are mature enough to decide on their own as to whether a particular site is useful or just taking advantage of people's plight to generate some quick bucks.

Everybody has a frustrating journey towards their Freedom (GC). If we walk together we will be stronger. If we isolate ourselves the journey will become even more difficult.


Good Luck to all!


How much are you being paid to advertise other site? Or maybe you own that other site and trying to advertise here secretly?

Stop posting Bull that someone has inside sources and those predictions are authentic. If someone is posting such false information it can be reported to authorities and that person can be booked on charges. These are all tactics for cheap publicity. That guy is greedy and has google ads to make money for his for profit veture. He does not care if we do advocacy day or if we get a bill. We forget that the data other sites are using for predictions is only because of Immigrationvoice. Immigration voice ran an FOIA campiagn and got it. None of those sites give credit to IV or even have message to support the non profit IV.

[gc_vbin]

well said!

take it easy my friend. It appears as if you have some personal problem with the person who started the other site.

First regarding google ads. Most other sites have ads for the same reason that IV has ads in our forums. i.e. to be able to generate some revenue to sustain the site and their initiatives. Some sites have more ads while some sites have bare minimum to sustain the operations. It all depends on what kind of initiatives they undertake. IV has a huge number of initiatives therefore IV has ads and requests donations. That is perfectly normal and without which IV cannot function effectively.

Second, the very basic purpose of why IV started was to create awareness and information sharing among people and slowly it became a strong force (thanks to very dedicated members) that could take up additional initiatives such as advocacy etc. Its no small feat that IV is usually considered a party to discussions taken up by Immigration Department. This does not mean only IV should be the torch bearer or have exclusive rights to share information. If there are other sites/initiatives that people want to be part of it should be welcomed. Shutting ourselves to the outer world is not good for our cause and common good.

Third, most members of IV and other sites are mature enough to decide on their own as to whether a particular site is useful or just taking advantage of people's plight to generate some quick bucks.

Everybody has a frustrating journey towards their Freedom (GC). If we walk together we will be stronger. If we isolate ourselves the journey will become even more difficult.


Good Luck to all!

[Leo07]

Folks( TeddyK),

Did any one run a correlation among these data points(Perm, I-140 & I-485 data) for ROW and b/n Perm, I-140 for I/C?

Do we know with +/-20% SD that X 140's consume Y visas? ( through the above method?)

Just wondering out loud. If it doesn't make sense, please ignore.

On to less important topic: Folks, it's our responsibility to keep the thread clean & discuss only what's relevant to the title. More importantly treat each other with respect so that people can discuss more openly. More importantly, TeddyK had to take time to delete/clean the thread every once in a while. We all know he has better things to do than that.

Best!

[waitingnwaiting]

Breaking News

Dates move further in July. The movement in June is ok, but July will be much better.

EB2 India is expected to move over Jan 07.

Demand data should come today. VB comes on Friday.

Source : A company lawyer. (not some website owner trying to increase the traffic)

Chinese folks are reporting that attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 So will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

[skpanda]

This exact information (about company lawyer) and and Chinese folks was ALSO posted in the so called other site. However it was done yesterday - full 24 hours in advance. This tells me that you are not the Original owner of that information. You obtained (copied) this from some other site/source.

My point is - do not just think that we at IV are only group that has information. We have to be open to accept other places of information and collectively carry out our difficult journey.

I personally do not care if a site has ads as long as it provides valuable information. In this case this same information was obtained 24 hours before somebody posted in IV.

anways.. it would be a good idea to keep this thread clean as somebody suggested earlier. Lets stick to the objective of this thread and try to help each other.

Hopefully July VB will bring cheers to folks with PD in 2007.


S
Breaking News

Dates move further in July. The movement in June is ok, but July will be much better.

EB2 India is expected to move over Jan 07.

Demand data should come today. VB comes on Friday.

Source : A company lawyer. (not some website owner trying to increase the traffic)

Chinese folks are reporting that attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 So will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

[atulnayak1]

You guys are dragging this thread down. Trolls, shooo

[belmontboy]

Breaking News

Dates move further in July. The movement in June is ok, but July will be much better.

EB2 India is expected to move over Jan 07.

Demand data should come today. VB comes on Friday.

Source : A company lawyer. (not some website owner trying to increase the traffic)

Chinese folks are reporting that attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 So will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

yes, we ought to believe lawyers. They are always right :rolleyes:

[waitingnwaiting]

This exact information (about company lawyer) and and Chinese folks was ALSO posted in the so called other site. However it was done yesterday - full 24 hours in advance. This tells me that you are not the Original owner of that information. You obtained (copied) this from some other site/source.

My point is - do not just think that we at IV are only group that has information. We have to be open to accept other places of information and collectively carry out our difficult journey.

I personally do not care if a site has ads as long as it provides valuable information. In this case this same information was obtained 24 hours before somebody posted in IV.

anways.. it would be a good idea to keep this thread clean as somebody suggested earlier. Lets stick to the objective of this thread and try to help each other.

Hopefully July VB will bring cheers to folks with PD in 2007.


S


My point is not if it was posted 24 hrs ago or 2 hrs ago. My point is someone claiming to have his own inside information is wrong. This information was sent by a company lawyer. Folks from China also posted on their website and that is how this wrong claim on the Indian website was caught. Why can't people be honest and give credit where it belongs instead of saying they have their own sources for inside information just to gain few more clicks and dollars from internet traffic?

VB is coming tomorrow so we will know if the lawyer was right

[EBX-Man]

I predict (Wish) that CIS will make all categories current. That way everyone will be entitled to EAD/AP and will reduce their tension by 50 %. After which CIS can go ahead and issues GC in the preference category sequence. That way everyone is happy especially the EB 2 India people with PD Jan - May 2011 who have gone through so much pain and anguish and who are a nervous wreck because of their Long GC process wait.

[voicerj]

My point is not if it was posted 24 hrs ago or 2 hrs ago. My point is someone claiming to have his own inside information is wrong. This information was sent by a company lawyer. Folks from China also posted on their website and that is how this wrong claim on the Indian website was caught. Why can't people be honest and give credit where it belongs instead of saying they have their own sources for inside information just to gain few more clicks and dollars from internet traffic?

VB is coming tomorrow so we will know if the lawyer was right


Lawyers are NO better predictors or rather mathematicians then our gurus.

[Wait4EAD]

well said.. it was proven already

[stemcell]

My point is not if it was posted 24 hrs ago or 2 hrs ago. My point is someone claiming to have his own inside information is wrong. This information was sent by a company lawyer. Folks from China also posted on their website and that is how this wrong claim on the Indian website was caught. Why can't people be honest and give credit where it belongs instead of saying they have their own sources for inside information just to gain few more clicks and dollars from internet traffic?

VB is coming tomorrow so we will know if the lawyer was right


' It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future '
Mark Twain.

But who am i to argue with a lawyer.

[MacX]

My point is not if it was posted 24 hrs ago or 2 hrs ago. My point is someone claiming to have his own inside information is wrong. This information was sent by a company lawyer. Folks from China also posted on their website and that is how this wrong claim on the Indian website was caught. Why can't people be honest and give credit where it belongs instead of saying they have their own sources for inside information just to gain few more clicks and dollars from internet traffic?

VB is coming tomorrow so we will know if the lawyer was right
Guyz,

Just google "JULY 2011 VISA BULLETIN PREDICTIONS " and you get more than 10+ different predictions. But what we dont have at few sites is logic behind the predictions.

I still could not figure out what is the other site our dear friends are taking about, aaah who cares i am happy with IV.

-Mac

[sanz]

Hopefully it moves till april 07 . Its been a long wait

[TeddyKoochu]

Folks( TeddyK),

Did any one run a correlation among these data points(Perm, I-140 & I-485 data) for ROW and b/n Perm, I-140 for I/C?

Do we know with +/-20% SD that X 140's consume Y visas? ( through the above method?)

Just wondering out loud. If it doesn't make sense, please ignore.

On to less important topic: Folks, it's our responsibility to keep the thread clean & discuss only what's relevant to the title. More importantly treat each other with respect so that people can discuss more openly. More importantly, TeddyK had to take time to delete/clean the thread every once in a while. We all know he has better things to do than that.

Best!

I did it only at a high level using the USCIS dashboard I140 data to come up to EB Only. The biggest challenges always have been a) To determine the split of EB2 and EB3 for ROW and India. An accepted approximation is 50-50 for ROW and almost 75-25 for India. b) Classify the cases country wise how many are ROW, India or China, the accepted approximation is that 50% is ROW.
The trend this year with regards approvals is pretty similar to last year, however one thing to note that that the number of receipts is rising and the processing is slowing down and backlog is rising, which may not augur well for the future. Another interesting thing is that they use the term completions which I understand is approvals + denials this has remained the same I however believe that the Kazarian memo may have caused increased denials this is what is causing higher SOFAD this year. So what percentage of completions is approvals is yet another assumption.
On another note I would like you, urge everyone to chill and keep sharing information. This will make everyone’s life more comfortable in the waiting game. Let’s hope for the best in the Jul VB if we hit 01-Feb-2007 or later then we are on track for the next step to reach 01-Aug-2007 this year.

[ek_bechara]

I hope this is not considered a digression. I totally understand that me knowing a few in situation X does not mean it can be generalized. However I would like to understand how USCIS handles such situations.

I personally know three people who left to India for good during the 2008 downturn and their PD's are in 2006 and 2007. As far as I remember two applied for 485 -EAD-AP during the fiasco. Now they left the country for good but their GC's are in process or have not been retracted by the employer. Couple of things can happen here

1) USCIS calls them for interviews. A no show means abandonment
2) USCIS sends an automated email welcoming them to US of A and send their GC's to the address on file.

Situation 1) is straightforward. In situation 2) is GC will never be used. What happens to the GC's in 2)? Do they get counted against the allocated numbers?

Given the downturn in 2008 followed by TARP, etc. etc. we can fairly assume that a small number of applications have already gone back home. Although small the number matters because of the measly GC's we are allocated every quarter.

[EBX-Man]

Hopefully it moves till april 07 . Its been a long wait

Yes i can believe that. Once you cross the 9 years wait time your waiting does not have any value and is considered less than rubbish. So hopefully you will get GC before 9 years wait and your wait will not become meaningless anymore. Good for you man.

[rag1232]

I am waitinggggg for it and my PD is Jan 15, 2007 EB2I. I have no more nails to bite :-(

[TeddyKoochu]

I hope this is not considered a digression. I totally understand that me knowing a few in situation X does not mean it can be generalized. However I would like to understand how USCIS handles such situations.

I personally know three people who left to India for good during the 2008 downturn and their PD's are in 2006 and 2007. As far as I remember two applied for 485 -EAD-AP during the fiasco. Now they left the country for good but their GC's are in process or have not been retracted by the employer. Couple of things can happen here

1) USCIS calls them for interviews. A no show means abandonment
2) USCIS sends an automated email welcoming them to US of A and send their GC's to the address on file.

Situation 1) is straightforward. In situation 2) is GC will never be used. What happens to the GC's in 2)? Do they get counted against the allocated numbers?

Given the downturn in 2008 followed by TARP, etc. etc. we can fairly assume that a small number of applications have already gone back home. Although small the number matters because of the measly GC's we are allocated every quarter.

Thanks for posting even I heard that this is fairly common, if the company is ready to guarantee future employment then the cases would still be valid. Iam sure a long term absence would have triggered some kind of a red flag, most people who go back convert their cases to consular processing. So once they are current they can attend the interview at the consulate and get their GC. There would also be cases of few lucky folks however who would go back and if the companies have not revoked I140 the GC's would come either to their friends or lawyers addresses I have read of some cases Iam not sure how common this is.

[veni001]

I hope this is not considered a digression. I totally understand that me knowing a few in situation X does not mean it can be generalized. However I would like to understand how USCIS handles such situations.

I personally know three people who left to India for good during the 2008 downturn and their PD's are in 2006 and 2007. As far as I remember two applied for 485 -EAD-AP during the fiasco. Now they left the country for good but their GC's are in process or have not been retracted by the employer. Couple of things can happen here

1) USCIS calls them for interviews. A no show means abandonment
2) USCIS sends an automated email welcoming them to US of A and send their GC's to the address on file.

Situation 1) is straightforward. In situation 2) is GC will never be used. What happens to the GC's in 2)? Do they get counted against the allocated numbers?

Given the downturn in 2008 followed by TARP, etc. etc. we can fairly assume that a small number of applications have already gone back home. Although small the number matters because of the measly GC's we are allocated every quarter.

ek_bechara,
In very rare cases #2 mentioned above happens, since USCIS has to check abandonment(leaving the US of A on pending AOS and no valid AP to come back) before approving i485.

[nvijay78]

Thanks for posting even I heard that this is fairly common, if the company is ready to guarantee future employment then the cases would still be valid. Iam sure a long term absence would have triggered some kind of a red flag, most people who go back convert their cases to consular processing. So once they are current they can attend the interview at the consulate and get their GC. There would also be cases of few lucky folks however who would go back and if the companies have not revoked I140 the GC's would come either to their friends or lawyers addresses I have read of some cases Iam not sure how common this is.
I notice that as we get closer to the Visa bulletin date the predictions get wilder and the hopes get higher. Realistically i think crossing the Feb 2007 barrier is very difficult in the July bulletin. Perhaps the August bulletin will take it to May and the September bulletin to Aug 2007 or maybe even current for a small duration to built the demand for next year. If it is anywhere close to Feb we are in good shape i would say. Anything beyond that just seems wild fantasy

[voicerj]

What do you think about moving to July 2007 or even current(highly unlikely) in this July bulletin itself

As they have moved more aggressively in July bulletin then in the later ones. Also this way they will have some more cases to work on and incase want to process them and attach visa number to them?

[rajuseattle]

Teddy,

U r doing gr88 job for the IV comunity, keep on doing what you r doing here ignore the distractions.

[nvijay78]

What do you think about moving to July 2007 or even current(highly unlikely) in this July bulletin itself

As they have moved more aggressively in July bulletin then in the later ones. Also this way they will have some more cases to work on and incase want to process them and attach visa number to them?
Lets say they push the dates to July that makes about 15000 people current. Whats the point, do we really think USCIS can process that many GC's in a month. And then if we don't get our GC's in two weeks after being current we would start SR's InfoPasses, Contact Senators etc.. leading to more pressure on them. This is what i have been talking about in a few of my posts. There are two reasons to make GC current even from a USCIS point of view
1. Grant the applicant a GC
2. Provide the applicant a chance to get their i485's in and by that token the EAD and AP.

All i am saying is , it seems prudent for them to take the next two months and clear cases that can satisfy 1, and use the last bulletin to pretty much cover 2 since after that there is a big lull for almost a year for them to work on. Does this make sense. Ofcourse this is just ramblings of a mind that is eagerly awaiting the visa bulletin :)

[dontcareaboutGC]

What do you think about moving to July 2007 or even current(highly unlikely) in this July bulletin itself

As they have moved more aggressively in July bulletin then in the later ones. Also this way they will have some more cases to work on and incase want to process them and attach visa number to them?
It is far fetched. With all the best estimates it might be around Jul 07. Even then with 5K or more PWMB I think there are sufficient numbers to consume all spillover visa's for this year...

It will and should jump to around Jan or Feb 07 either this VB or next-

[dontcareaboutGC]

Misread your thoughts- my bad!

[leo4ever]

What do you think about moving to July 2007 or even current(highly unlikely) in this July bulletin itself

As they have moved more aggressively in July bulletin then in the later ones. Also this way they will have some more cases to work on and incase want to process them and attach visa number to them?
I think it moves to Jan 07 in Jul 2011 bulletin.

[voicerj]

Lets say they push the dates to July that makes about 15000 people current. Whats the point, do we really think USCIS can process that many GC's in a month. And then if we don't get our GC's in two weeks after being current we would start SR's InfoPasses, Contact Senators etc.. leading to more pressure on them. This is what i have been talking about in a few of my posts. There are two reasons to make GC current even from a USCIS point of view
1. Grant the applicant a GC
2. Provide the applicant a chance to get their i485's in and by that token the EAD and AP.

All i am saying is , it seems prudent for them to take the next two months and clear cases that can satisfy 1, and use the last bulletin to pretty much cover 2 since after that there is a big lull for almost a year for them to work on. Does this make sense. Ofcourse this is just ramblings of a mind that is eagerly awaiting the visa bulletin :)

Definitely what you are saying makes sense, but Do they really need that much time to process the cases as most of the cases before July 2007 are already pre-adjudicated and i am not sure if they are doing any more processing on those.

But what i am scared is incase they don't move the dates long enough then there are high chances of them loosing some visa number for this year.

[deepakjain]

No changes July and Aug bulletins

[deepakjain]

What I meant to say is there will not be any movement for EB2 category in July and Aug Visa bulletin.


No changes July and Aug bulletins

[redgreen]

Prediction thread, or a useful thread on asking a relevant question and giving correct answers, it is totally silly to blank out references of (some of) the other websites, if they are not directly contradicting our purpose. I do not understand why and how some 'moderators /administrators' of IV have such mean and silly mind? If somebody is making money doing tracking/publishing prediction blogs/etc, is that a problem for us, other than simple jealousy of those 'blanking out'?! Nobody (including IV!) can force anybody from visiting those sites and quench their fantasies/gambling instincts/or even gather relevant information. I think many people here forget basics of the purpose of the organization. It is sad to see such worthless nonsense from IV admins when we consider all the great things it has done to us.

[EBX-Man]

What I meant to say is there will not be any movement for EB2 category in July and Aug Visa bulletin.

And for that statement and the category you belong to you will get a shower of Reds !!!!

[RollingStone12]

Prediction thread, or a useful thread on asking a relevant question and giving correct answers, it is totally silly to blank out references of (some of) the other websites, if they are not directly contradicting our purpose. I do not understand why and how some 'moderators /administrators' of IV have such mean and silly mind? If somebody is making money doing tracking/publishing prediction blogs/etc, is that a problem for us, other than simple jealousy of those 'blanking out'?! Nobody (including IV!) can force anybody from visiting those sites and quench their fantasies/gambling instincts/or even gather relevant information. I think many people here forget basics of the purpose of the organization. It is sad to see such worthless nonsense from IV admins when we consider all the great things it has done to us.

Are you talking about yourself....

First, you need to read and understand the IV's mission. IV is not here to do prediction and making money on ad and traffic. We are here to fix the GC backlog for all and for good. IV least bothered about whats coming in the USCIS visa bulletin every month. What part of it you are not understanding.

Prediction is good to understand what kind of black hole we are in and need to work on permenant fix...but should not get elated by the prediction and visa bulletin.

[deepakjain]

That is the problem with us Indians we think noone else is as smart as we are, my profile is not updated I have already ported to EB2 and my priority date is EB2-Mar-07.

And here the question is not about EB2 or EB3 it is more about the process being followed

And for that statement and the category you belong to you will get a shower of Reds !!!!

[gc_peshwa]

How much are you being paid to advertise other site? Or maybe you own that other site and trying to advertise here secretly?

Stop posting Bull that someone has inside sources and those predictions are authentic. If someone is posting such false information it can be reported to authorities and that person can be booked on charges. These are all tactics for cheap publicity. That guy is greedy and has google ads to make money for his for profit veture. He does not care if we do advocacy day or if we get a bill. We forget that the data other sites are using for predictions is only because of Immigrationvoice. Immigration voice ran an FOIA campiagn and got it. None of those sites give credit to IV or even have message to support the non profit IV.

Very Well said!
The latest I485 inventory report doesnt change anything from our previous analysis that EB2 IC dates would reach May 2007 for sure by Sept 11 VB.
USCIS does seem to be approving cases at a rather fast clip. One of my EB2 I close friends with a PD of August 2006 got his approval just yesterday.
Interesting to note is he was expecting an RFE for his wife's application as she hadnt even appeared for her medical examination.(Dunno if thats mandatory though!). But the USCIS seems to have approved his case anyway.:eek:
This may suggest a sense of urgency on USCIS' part to not waste any visas.
Having said that the current supply of visas would fall short of the fulfilling the pending demand by a whisker.
A pending demand of 3K-6K would still remain at the start of CY 2012.
A Q1 supply of 3K visas would be enough to clear that demand i.e by Jan 2012 VB USCIS WOULD definitely need a peek into the EB2 demand.
EB2 IC dates would most likely move till Dec 2007 by Jan 2012 VB.
For the interim folks like me and everyone who couldnt file I485 can work with IV to lobby the lawmakers for an EB relief measure.
Ranting and raving in the virtual/anonymous world of internet can not bring relief to our community.

[redgreen]

Precisely! IV is not for prediction at all. However it has a forum, where many things can be discussed including prediction, for things of interest to its members. What I don't understand as I said clearly (thought it is clear to anybody) in my posting was that why should IV ban the mention of some immigration related websites, in discussion forums. What I don't understand is the mindset of people removing some website names from threads. I do not know whether I made clear enough so that you could understand. I hope you read before you hit reply!

Are you talking about yourself....

First, you need to read and understand the IV's mission. IV is not here to do prediction and making money on ad and traffic. We are here to fix the GC backlog for all for good. IV least bothered about whats coming in the USCIS visa bulletin every month. What part of it you are not understanding.

Prediction is good to understand what kind of black hole we are in and need to work permenant fix...but should not get elated by the prediction and visa bulletin.

[RollingStone12]

Precisely! IV is not for prediction at all. It has a forum, where many things can be discussed including prediction, for things of interest to its members. What I don't understand as I said clearly (thought it is clear to anybody) in my posting was that why should IV ban the mention of some immigration related websites, in discussion forums. What I don't understand is the mindset of people removing some website names from threads. I do not know whether I made clear enough so that you could understand.

Those site make money by traffic and ads...they least bother about GC issues and IV does not want to feed them....

You go and post IV website on those sites and see if they are supporting you (If its going to divert their traffic).

[pd052009]

Those site make money by traffic and ads...they least bother about GC issues and IV does not want to feed them....

You go and post IV website on those sites and see if they are supporting you (If its going to divert their traffic).

Shall we have a separate thread for discussing what is allowed to post and what not ? Lets leave this thread for its original purpose (predictions (rather calculation))

[mk26]

Admin.
please delete all irrelevant posts from this thread

[EBX-Man]

Very Well said!
For the interim folks like me and everyone who couldnt file I485 can work with IV to lobby the lawmakers for an EB relief measure.


Regarding your above statement, can you please provide some insight into the EB relief measures. If it meant visa recapture i was wondering what is the count of visa which will be recaptured if a bill gets passed as a law and what is the count of pending apps in the system and will recapture clear everyone in the system or will EB3 folks with PD after 2003 still be pending after recapture.

[eastindia]

What I don't understand is the mindset of people !

I do not understand the mindset of people who do not contribute a dime or participate but are happy to give their expert suggestions.

[waitingnwaiting]

Those site make money by traffic and ads...they least bother about GC issues and IV does not want to feed them....

You go and post IV website on those sites and see if they are supporting you (If its going to divert their traffic).

I agree with you. If you go on those sites and post anything positive about IV or post IV action item, your thread will be deleted. If you post anything negative about IV your thread will not be deleted. What does this explain? Looks like some of these so called best and the brightest EB folks are really empty ... or they do not care at all about others. All they care is their greencard and hell with everyone else. Typical attitude which is why there are exploitation, fraud, retrogression and no initiative.

[Oct007]

Visa Bulletin for July 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html)

EB2
India and china 08 march 2007
may 2002 india eb 3

[Sreeshankar]

Employment- Based
08 Mar 2007 India eb 2
may 2002 india eb 3

[voicerj]

Employment- Based
08 Mar 2007 India eb 2
may 2002 india eb 3

Hopes are getting much higher now and congrats to all those who got current.

Seeing the light coming from somewhere

[TeddyKoochu]

Employment- Based
08 Mar 2007 India eb 2
may 2002 india eb 3

This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007

For EB3 the dates moved by a week, EB3 will settle at 15th May to 01-Jun 2002 by Sep.

[ek_bechara]

ek_bechara,
In very rare cases #2 mentioned above happens, since USCIS has to check abandonment(leaving the US of A on pending AOS and no valid AP to come back) before approving i485.

So what exactly happens when the dates get current? I heard that people get an email welcoming them to US of A. Some said that they were called for interview. Let me know if I need to go easy on the stuff I'm smoking from my backyard.

My date is mid June 2011. I'm hoping that if and when the date becomes current (hopefully before December 21, 2012) I will receive communication about my GC. I have been with the same company for close to 7 years and also doing almost the same thing day in and day out. All I can prove is that I'm still employed and in good standing.

I'm happy to take this conversation the PM route. I posted a reply just in case others are looking for similar information.

[rakesh76]

july bulletin is out.

EB2 -i Mar 2007

Visa Bulletin for July 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html)

Great news...

[snathan]

This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007

For EB3 the dates moved by a week, EB3 will settle at 15th May to 01-Jun 2002 by Sep.

Do you see the PD moves into 2008 in this FY...?

[dontcareaboutGC]

This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007

For EB3 the dates moved by a week, EB3 will settle at 15th May to 01-Jun 2002 by Sep.
TK- Have you noticed that this VB doesnt add any " notes" concerning the EB2, EB3 or porting scenario. It doesnt even indicate that they may need to retrogress- I just wonder if they are going to follow suit into the Family based processing and get dates moving to have a sufficient pipeline

[GCFrenzy]

Visa Bulletin for July 2011 (http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html)

EB2I 08MAR 2007
EB3I 01May2002

[gc_on_demand]

Do you see the PD moves into 2008 in this FY...?

I see PD moving upto June 2008. One more thing to notice that no comment on visa bulletin. Generally if DOS granted lots of visas in any given month they put note that retro is possible if demand surge etc.. So looks like DOS sees flat demand and they have more number than all pending USCIS + DOS ( - some % of cases which may not get approval ). Next month movement will be upto July 2007 and in Sep date will go into 2008. Oct date will retro back to Mid 2007

[voicerj]

TK- Have you noticed that this VB doesnt add any " notes" concerning the EB2, EB3 or porting scenario. It doesnt even indicate that they may need to retrogress- What are your thoughts?

Yeah even i was thinking the same. I guess them themselves don't know what will happen going forward for next two bulletins.

[GreenMe]

Congrats to all the folks who became current with July Bulletin !!!

[belmontboy]

Do you see the PD moves into 2008 in this FY...?

there is a good possibility that it makes it to end of 2007 or early 2008 by sep VB

[pappu]

This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007

For EB3 the dates moved by a week, EB3 will settle at 15th May to 01-Jun 2002 by Sep.

There would be many people who did not file I485 during July07 with PD around March April 2007. These people will now be applying I485 and adding to the inventory every month. Have you done calculations of such numbers as dates are likely to move forward in the next few months? If there are a lot of such applicants, it could also mean slower movement than anticipated in the last quarter.

Post July 2007 EB2-India I485 filers are currently non existent in the data. As dates hit July 2007, that is expected this year, the VB dates may fluctuate based on filings and processing every month. It would be interesting to see such calculations done based on DOL data for such applications (this data will still be incomplete due to absence of EB2NIW numbers and portings) in advance of inventory reports. If the data analysis shows some anomaly it can make a case for significant advancement of dates for EB2 so that it has enough preadjudicated applications every month. It has been one of IV recommendations. We had drawn attention to it last year and again couple of months ago we submitted this recommendation to USCIS. But a more deeper analysis could help reenforce IV's suggestion to DOS. IV can discuss such suggestions further with DOS and USCIS if needed.

[buddhaas]

Interesting thing is July bulletin released without/before demand data.

[voicerj]

There would be many people who did not file I485 during July07 with PD around March April 2007. These people will now be applying I485 and adding to the inventory every month. Have you done calculations of such numbers as dates are likely to move forward in the next few months? If there are a lot of such applicants, it could also been slower movement than anticipated in the last quarter.

Post July 2007 EB2-India I485 filers are currently non existent in the data. As dates hit July 2007, that is expected this year, the VB dates may fluctuate based on filings and processing every month. It would be interesting to see such calculations done based on DOL data for such applications in advance of inventory reports. If the data analysis shows some anomaly it can make a case for significant advancement of dates for EB2 so that it has enough preadjudicated applications every month. It has been one of IV recommendations. But a more deeper analysis could help reenforce IV's suggestion to DOS.


Pappu - I guess while doing the whole calculations Teddy did consider around 5k PWMB during July 07 fiasco.

[snathan]

There would be many people who did not file I485 during July07 with PD around March April 2007. These people will now be applying I485 and adding to the inventory every month. Have you done calculations of such numbers as dates are likely to move forward in the next few months? If there are a lot of such applicants, it could also been slower movement than anticipated in the last quarter.

Post July 2007 EB2-India I485 filers are currently non existent in the data. As dates hit July 2007, that is expected this year, the VB dates may fluctuate based on filings and processing every month. It would be interesting to see such calculations done based on DOL data for such applications in advance of inventory reports. If the data analysis shows some anomaly it can make a case for significant advancement of dates for EB2 so that it has enough preadjudicated applications every month. It has been one of IV recommendations. But a more deeper analysis could help reenforce IV's suggestion to DOS.

They have predicted 5-6K of PWMB...

Once they hit the 2007 july, how are going to calculate the demand beyond July 2007 and on what basis they are going to move the date....?

[voicerj]

Interesting thing is July bulletin released without/before demand data.

Because they don't want us do any more calculations and make judgments and then not be surprised as we already know where the dates will be when the bulletin gets released.

[mk26]

Congrats to all who finally got the chance to file in July .

[indo_obama]

Congrats to all who got current. Looks like its moving ... full steam ahead

[belmontboy]

They have predicted 5-6K of PWMB...

Once they hit the 2007 july, how are going to calculate the demand beyond July 2007 and on what basis they are going to move the date....?

It will follow the same process that used to happen before july 2007.
There would be forward movements, followed by retrogressions.

To avoid this situation, USCIS needs to open up gates beyond july 2007. Now how large/many is anybody's guess.

[Rahulkilaru]

Teddy you are the man.. :)

But looks like no prediction. Anything we can infer from that

[snathan]

It will follow the same process that used to happen before july 2007.
There would be forward movements, followed by retrogressions.

To avoid this situation, USCIS needs to open up gates beyond july 2007. Now how large/many is anybody's guess.

So the next VB is going to be more interesting as they are going to hit july 2007...will they make it current for EB2I?

[dontcareaboutGC]

They have predicted 5-6K of PWMB...

Once they hit the 2007 july, how are going to calculate the demand beyond July 2007 and on what basis they are going to move the date....?
million dollar question. It it came to that where they decide not to waste visa's which I think they will not I will bet that they will do the same thing they did as they did for family based applications.

For 2 reasons:

1) They have precendance of how it works and what can and cannot happen based on taking in 2 years worth of applications.
2) This way they can gauge what they can gauge what happens and get overall information for and set policies to that effect.

But this is all assuming that they will reach July 07- Based on today's movement I think the chances just shot up reasonably high-

[dontcareaboutGC]

So the next VB is going to be more interesting as they are going to hit july 2007...will they make it current for EB2I?
I dont think they will make it current- Since the number of applications coming in will be in over 100K...I dont think they are equipped resource wise to handle such a huge case load...on the flip side an action like this gurantees income- EAD, AP etc...however I think they will be a much more concerted effort between CIS and DOS in regards to further date movements!

[snathan]

I dont think they will make it current- Since the number of applications coming in will be in over 100K...I dont think they are equipped resource wise to handle such a huge case load...on the flip side an action like this gurantees income- EAD, AP etc...however I think they will be a much more concerted effort between CIS and DOS in regards to further date movements!

But the question is - how do they know 100K will come ?

[dontcareaboutGC]

Because they don't want us do any more calculations and make judgments and then not be surprised as we already know where the dates will be when the bulletin gets released.
The demand data towards the end of all is just for transparency to the customers- internally on a federal level it doesnt mean anything since they have all the data they need...so it doesnt really matter wheather the data is published or not atleast not for now...perhaps in other quarters it does make a difference.

[vbkris77]

There would be many people who did not file I485 during July07 with PD around March April 2007. These people will now be applying I485 and adding to the inventory every month. Have you done calculations of such numbers as dates are likely to move forward in the next few months? If there are a lot of such applicants, it could also mean slower movement than anticipated in the last quarter.

Post July 2007 EB2-India I485 filers are currently non existent in the data. As dates hit July 2007, that is expected this year, the VB dates may fluctuate based on filings and processing every month. It would be interesting to see such calculations done based on DOL data for such applications (this data will still be incomplete due to absence of EB2NIW numbers) in advance of inventory reports. If the data analysis shows some anomaly it can make a case for significant advancement of dates for EB2 so that it has enough preadjudicated applications every month. It has been one of IV recommendations. We had drawn attention to it last year and again couple of months ago we submitted this recommendation to USCIS. But a more deeper analysis could help reenforce IV's suggestion to DOS. IV can discuss such suggestions further with DOS and USCIS if needed.

If we allocate 2K for each month after July 07 inspite of bad economy, we will have 140K pending applications till date for EB2 IC. But then there are so many layoffs and a bad economy in USA coupled with a booming economy in India/China make it difficult to firm up any number beyond July 07.

In my view unless visa office builds a buffer for the CIS Processing, it will be really impossible for this kind volumes be approved.

[voicerj]

I dont think they will make it current- Since the number of applications coming in will be in over 100K...I dont think they are equipped resource wise to handle such a huge case load...on the flip side an action like this gurantees income- EAD, AP etc...however I think they will be a much more concerted effort between CIS and DOS in regards to further date movements!

I agree with your, there is very low possibility of making it current but they may move the dates to somewhere in 2008 to get some more cases to work on for future.

[belmontboy]

So the next VB is going to be more interesting as they are going to hit july 2007...will they make it current for EB2I?

Won't be current though

[dontcareaboutGC]

But the question is - how do they know 100K will come ?
Based on the 140 applications approved. They have to take it on face value. Granted there will be many of them revoked, denied, left the country etc etc but that is the only thing in regards to any meaningful data DOS / CIS have at hand...

[dontcareaboutGC]

But the question is - how do they know 100K will come ?
They used similar information when they moved family based applications ahead by two years. Bottom line is they HAVE to first stick to the fact that they are NOT going to waste visa's only then they can start looking at relevant stat's to gauge- Besides they have to start somewhere right?..

[snathan]

Based on the 140 applications approved. They have to take it on face value. Granted there will be many of them revoked, denied, left the country etc etc but that is the only thing in regards to any meaningful data DOS / CIS have at hand...

If you are not aware, they are asking us that information (File for I-485 when the PD is not current)

[h1_b_visa_holder]

What I meant to say is there will not be any movement for EB2 category in July and Aug Visa bulletin.

Now you can eat your words !!!

How unexpected our dear USCIS can be, No Demand Data and direct July VB and that too EB2-I almost 6 months wooo hoooooo. This time they beat the Mumbai Consulate. Also, did you guys notice, it states Aug 2011 VB Coming Soon alread :confused:

[buddhaas]

USCIS may not make current and get thousands of applications to make EAD, AP renewal money, because, there is no renewal fee and they do collect full fee even if you file 485 with or without EAD, AP.

[belmontboy]

That is the problem with us Indians we think noone else is as smart as we are, my profile is not updated I have already ported to EB2 and my priority date is EB2-Mar-07.

And here the question is not about EB2 or EB3 it is more about the process being followed

Did ya make it??
Or left out..

[dontcareaboutGC]

If you are not aware, they are asking us that information (File for I-485 when the PD is not current)
Nope- it is a IV related effort to make a case for having people apply for the i-485. a.k.a make an effort to change the policy..again someone correct me if I am wrong- the law doesnt explicitly state that one cannot file for the i-485 before a visa number is available, neither does it prevent people from filing a i-485. CIS has clubbed this together and indicated that they will not accept a i-485 till the visa number's become availlable.. What the law explicitly states that one cannot be granted a GC till a visa number doesnt become available- nothing about filing a I-485

[krishmunn]

The July bulletin gives me hope that I will be current latest by July/August 2012 ... who knows they might want to open the gate this year itself since the indications are they will cross August 2007 this year.

[dinearok]

Do we need to prepare to file I 485?
Let's say, in next month's bulletin i'm current. how long does it take to prepare and file
I-485?

[h1_b_visa_holder]

There would be many people who did not file I485 during July07 with PD around March April 2007. These people will now be applying I485 and adding to the inventory every month. Have you done calculations of such numbers as dates are likely to move forward in the next few months? If there are a lot of such applicants, it could also mean slower movement than anticipated in the last quarter.

Post July 2007 EB2-India I485 filers are currently non existent in the data. As dates hit July 2007, that is expected this year, the VB dates may fluctuate based on filings and processing every month. It would be interesting to see such calculations done based on DOL data for such applications (this data will still be incomplete due to absence of EB2NIW numbers and portings) in advance of inventory reports. If the data analysis shows some anomaly it can make a case for significant advancement of dates for EB2 so that it has enough preadjudicated applications every month. It has been one of IV recommendations. We had drawn attention to it last year and again couple of months ago we submitted this recommendation to USCIS. But a more deeper analysis could help reenforce IV's suggestion to DOS. IV can discuss such suggestions further with DOS and USCIS if needed.

Kudos to IV, hopefully they listen and will help folks get the EAD/AP benefit

[h1_b_visa_holder]

I dont think they will make it current- Since the number of applications coming in will be in over 100K...I dont think they are equipped resource wise to handle such a huge case load...on the flip side an action like this gurantees income- EAD, AP etc...however I think they will be a much more concerted effort between CIS and DOS in regards to further date movements!

Relaistically they will move by 2 years, but again guys thuis is USCIS, may be they will make it C. That is what I am praying and hoping for

[mach1343]

Finally after a long wait now I can apply for 485.

Now starts the next hurdle though until we hit the GC spot.

Thanks for everyone who prayed for all of us...

Thanks to Teddy!!

[h1_b_visa_holder]

But the question is - how do they know 100K will come ?

Correct, they dont know so they should make it C. That is the logic, but you never know what USCIS has in store for you ....

[dontcareaboutGC]

The July bulletin gives me hope that I will be current latest by July/August 2012 ... who knows they might want to open the gate this year itself since the indications are they will cross August 2007 this year.
Let us wait till we see the Demand data- that will provide a clear picture. As I indicated in my previous posts we tend to rely on information that is not official e.g people indicating that processing of GC's has been deliberately slowed down so as to ensure that visa's can be used up etc etc...let us wait for the demand data and use that information to evaluate the further movement

[dontcareaboutGC]

Relaistically they will move by 2 years, but again guys thuis is USCIS, may be they will make it C. That is what I am praying and hoping for
No it is not CIS. It is DOS which sets the date in concert with CIS.

[smuggymba]

deleted since everyone knew the july bulletin.

[nvijay78]

Lets say they push the dates to July that makes about 15000 people current. Whats the point, do we really think USCIS can process that many GC's in a month. And then if we don't get our GC's in two weeks after being current we would start SR's InfoPasses, Contact Senators etc.. leading to more pressure on them. This is what i have been talking about in a few of my posts. There are two reasons to make GC current even from a USCIS point of view
1. Grant the applicant a GC
2. Provide the applicant a chance to get their i485's in and by that token the EAD and AP.

All i am saying is , it seems prudent for them to take the next two months and clear cases that can satisfy 1, and use the last bulletin to pretty much cover 2 since after that there is a big lull for almost a year for them to work on. Does this make sense. Ofcourse this is just ramblings of a mind that is eagerly awaiting the visa bulletin :)
I shall Humbly eat my own words :). Seems like USCIS has a knack of doing the most unexpected things, though what DOS is claiming here is in July USCIS will be able to clear an estimated 12K cases . Ill believe it when i get my card in hand. For the folks who have missed the boat i think this is a great opportunity to get those EAD's and AP's. I wish they gave two year AP's , but thats a topic for another day. I dont see any reason for them to make the dates current at the end of the year , so as to build the pipeline. Remember in 2007 they handled close to 100K incoming applications and the revenue stream it generates can probably make the USCIS a much for effecient organization. Good luck folks.

[snathan]

Whoever has already filed for I-485, please post the list of docs here and post it to IV wiki...

So it would be very helpful for everyone who are all current...