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TeddyKoochu
02-10-2011, 12:20 PM
Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, and other news and information.

GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end of FY 2012.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2009 by the end of FY 2012.

- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December.
-We expect that 3.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th Jum would have been filed.
- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 – EB3 ratio is 75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number of I+C perms and I485’s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to 2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the 2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20% demand destruction for all reasons.
.-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD, the dashboard model does suggest that the Sofad this year maybe 5k lesser due to the approval of 20K additional I140’s in the last more months assuming 50% of this was absorbed in FY 2011 (In the later part of the last quarter movement was extremely limited) and 50% will carry over to FY-2012.

DASHBOARD TREND
The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485). By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. For simplicity I just assumed that Nov is done for approvals.
EB1
2011 - 10+14+13 = 37
2012 - 7+11+38 = 56
The number of Eb1c approvals is almost at 3 times of last year. EB1 A & b are still in early days. Most EB1c cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Eb1c is from India, this trend correlates well with high i140 approvals in recent days.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 88
2012 - 37
EB2 row is significantly underperforming, row has a tendency to pick up later in the year, last year also row stated weak initially but picked up later. Overall as of now I feel that things that Eb2 Row decline and EB1 moving faster may just cancel each other.

I hope this is helpful, please use this information based on your individual judgment & discretion. Comments, critique, suggestions and corrections are welcome and are appreciated.

TeddyKoochu
02-10-2011, 12:55 PM
Friends welcome to EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II), this is a continuation from the previous blog. Lets focus here on numbers and facts only, looking forward to a great discussion.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).

TeddyKoochu
02-10-2011, 12:56 PM
Resereved for additional info.

gcpb
02-10-2011, 01:12 PM
Teddy,
I had tried to evaluate some of the unknown factors, but came up with very optimistic figures. While this may be slightly off topic, it would certainly help in these calculations.Appreciate your review and analysis of this please.

We basically have 2 unknowns
1) Amount porting from EB3I to EB2I (lets call this P)
2) Local office count (lets call this L3 and L2 for EB3I and EB2I respectively)

I assumed that the percentage of local office counts for both EB2 and EB3 will be the same (lets call this C)

Now, the raw data I used was from:
Pending inventory list.
Pending EB3 till 2002 end as of 2009 end = 9731
Pending EB3 till 2002 end as of 2010 end = 8043
Pending EB2 till 2006 end as of 2009 end = 30092
Pending EB2 till 2006 end as of 2010 end = 14710
and from Visa Office 2010 report
Count of EB2 green cards processed = 20000
Count of EB3 green cards processed = 2800

From this, we can infer that:
Decrease in EB2 pending count = 20000-P-L2 = 20000-P-C*30092
Decrease in EB3 pending count = 20000-P-L3 = 2800+P-C*9731

This gives us 2 linear equations with 2 variables, the solution to which is:
C=0.143887 and P=288
First inference seems to show that there were around 15% "hidden" cases in local offices that were previously unaccounted for. But more interesting and what seems to be very good news is that there were only 288 portings from EB3I to EB2I. However, this seems too good to be true. Can anyone show me the fallacy here?

Potential fallacies, assumptions and my rationale for them, lacunae:
1) Are there any other unknown factors in my equations? One such may be the count of portings from EB2I to EB1I. I had disregarded this since I presumed this will be an insignificantly small a number.
2) Are there any other unknown factors in my equations? One such may be the count of dropouts (i.e. abandonments) from EB2I and EB3I each. I had disregarded both these since I presumed this will be an insignificantly small a number.
3) I had presumed that CP % of EB2I and EB3I will be the same. While there is no real numerical basis for this assumption, I proceeded with this since I do not see any reason for bias between EB2I and EB3I at the local offices. Over a period of tme and over large numbers I feel this is bound to even out. This is a statistical certainty. This is similar to the analogy of coin tossing: Toss a coin 10 times and there is a significant probability that 40% or less will be heads. However, repeat the same experiment with count of 1000 and the probability of this event will be small enough to mathematically discount as impossible.

Any other weaknesses or misses?

belmontboy
02-10-2011, 01:18 PM
With ~ 24 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this will put us at 01-JAN02007.


how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN 2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?

TeddyKoochu
02-10-2011, 01:24 PM
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN 2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?

Thanks for pointing out still in WIP I will correct the table as well. 26.5 K takes us to 01 Jan 2007 while ~ 34K takes us over March to 01-APR-2007. I will be making corresctions to the first post based on the latest data .

ravi.shah
02-10-2011, 01:24 PM
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN 2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?


I think it was a typo by Teddy. He meant 34K instead of 24K SOFAD. That is what he was discussing just one line before mentioning 24K.

Leo07
02-10-2011, 01:33 PM
Man, try to push it to July 2007 by all means:) I know you'd like that too :)
Thanks for pointing out still in WIP I will correct the table as well. 26.5 K takes us to 01 Jan 2007 while ~ 34K takes us over March to 01-APR-2007. I will be making corresctions to the first post based on the latest data .

extra_mint
02-10-2011, 03:02 PM
Teddy Thanks for all the calculations !!
I hope SOFAD is maximum so that every one can get greened :-)

gcwait2007
02-10-2011, 05:13 PM
Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/EB2-I_USCIS_Data#EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates)

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175 13200 13200
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975 22950 22950
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025 23050 23050

The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas. From the above, I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.


The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:

Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
04/01/2011 07/22/2006 05/08/2006
03/01/2011 07/08/2006 05/08/2006
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006

Source: Past Visa Bulletin Data - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/Past_Visa_Bulletin_Data)


With the PD announcements in every month visa bulletin and I-485 Inventory data, one would be able to calculate Visa Demand data position(pending applications), month wise.

The demand data position for April 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 565 4978
Aug-06 1677 693 7348
Sep-06 1745 773 9866
Oct-06 1747 732 12345
Nov-06 1737 667 14749
Dec-06 1881 770 17400

Jan-07 1540 654 19594
Feb-07 1444 615 21653


Every month USCIS allocates 233* visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 3 months from April 2011 to June 2011.

*Using 140,00 total EB visas -

EB2 receives 28.6% of the 140,000 so the 7% limit for EB2-I is (140,000 * 0.286) * 0.07 = 2,803 visas.

Monthly quota = 2803/12 = 233

While EB2 China would move to 15th Aug 2006 by June 2011 VB, EB2 India would continue to stagnate at 8-May-2006 due to porting of EB3 to EB2.

My guesstimate for July 2011 demand data may look like smth as given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 558 6648
Sep-06 1745 773 9166
Oct-06 1747 732 11645
Nov-06 1737 667 14049
Dec-06 1881 770 16700

Jan-07 1540 654 18894
Feb-07 1444 615 20953

With my limited experience of last few years in dealing with USCIS and DOS, I am aware that the spillover calculations start happening in Q4, commencing from July. Further, there are resources constraint in USCIS centers. First 2 months of the Q4 (July and Aug), spillover allocation happen in full swing. Last month of the Quarter, remaining spillover is allocated.

The spillover whenever happens, it goes to the worst affected country, which is India.

If there is no spillover happening in July 2011, EB2 India and China would continue to get 233 visas every month for 3 months from July 2011 to Sep 2011. In the normal course, EB2 China would reach 15-Sep-2006.

After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 0 6090
Sep-06 1745 631 8466
Oct-06 1747 732 10945
Nov-06 1737 667 13349
Dec-06 1881 770 16000

Jan-07 1540 654 18194
Feb-07 1444 615 20253

I made assumption from the past trend about the availability of spillover visas. While EB5 spillover about 8K to 9K is certain, EB1 is not certain and EB2ROW to EB2 Ind/China is estimated to be 10K to 12K.

Then there are also People Who Missed the Boat, which I understand USCIS does not take into account for deciding the Cut Off date.

There are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data is available and it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments.

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.

ivar
02-10-2011, 05:21 PM
Good job Teddy.

bestin
02-10-2011, 05:27 PM
Man, try to push it to July 2007 by all means:) I know you'd like that too :)
I concur this :D

gcgonewild
02-10-2011, 05:34 PM
Keep up the good work Teddy

ajaykk
02-10-2011, 05:49 PM
Thumbsup Teddy!..Fingers X'd

desitechie
02-10-2011, 06:12 PM
Given below is the present position:

The availability spillover visas: 8K+4K+10K = 22K
USCIS will try to split the spillover over 3 months, each month allocating 8K visas.
For July 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Sep-2006 (about 8K visas)
For August 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Dec-2006 (about 8K visas).
For Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be either end of Feb 2007 (about 4.5K visas) or end of March 2007 (about 6.5K visas).

Very good summary. I think this is inline with QESHMK, Teddy and other experts calculation.

whereismygclost
02-10-2011, 06:34 PM
gcwait2007,teddy and others ..what is your estimate for Oct'07 EB2-I priority date? Do you think I will be able to at least file 485 and get EAD in the 2012 spillover season ( July - Sept 2012) ?

ddanait
02-10-2011, 07:25 PM
Any idea if August 2007 will become current this year? if not then atleast early 2012, going per calculations looks like I will be missing by few days.. :(

Guys gear up for advocacy day, let's get numbers there and we will help us and the entire community. It's really difficult to continue living in uncertainity.

Cheers,
DD

omnipresence
02-10-2011, 07:54 PM
My PD is May 17th 2006, any chances of movement in March bulletin?

GC_1000Watt
02-10-2011, 08:08 PM
Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki (http://immigrationvoice.org/wiki/index.php/EB2-I_USCIS_Data#EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates)

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025

The availability spillover visas: 8K+4K+10K = 22K

USCIS will try to split the spillover over 3 months, each month allocating 8K visas.

For July 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Sep-2006 (about 8K visas)

For August 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Dec-2006 (about 8K visas).

For Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be either end of Feb 2007 (about 4.5K visas) or end of March 2007 (about 6.5K visas).

Great work man. I have one question though. As per Teddy's calculation, 22k of spillover will take us to Oct. 2006. I am wondering how come in your calculation the same spillover is taking us all the way to Feb/Mar 2007?
GCWait/Teddy please share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.

Michael chertoff
02-10-2011, 09:11 PM
My PD is May 17th 2006, any chances of movement in March bulletin?

Brother just wait till july.

MC

gcwait2007
02-10-2011, 09:22 PM
Great work man. I have one question though. As per Teddy's calculation, 22k of spillover will take us to Oct. 2006. I am wondering how come in your calculation the same spillover is taking us all the way to Feb/Mar 2007?
GCWait/Teddy please share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.

Teddy has his own way of calculation with his own assumptions, while I have my own.

Teddy has added 8K as cushion before May 2006 as Offset, while I have not taken this offset figure.

What I tried to was to calculate/ forecast the cut-off Priority date as closely as possible to the expected reality, knowing the available factors.

rodnyb
02-11-2011, 01:00 AM
Is that we had total EB2-I 18K last year per DOS report? I couldn't find it, but it was published like a few weeks ago.

So I would say this year will be similar, about total 18-20K EB2I approval, suggesting about 15-17K spillover

Still, my prediction
100% 12-2006
60% 02-2007
20% 04-2007
0% 05-2007
-100% Current

glimmerOfHope
02-11-2011, 04:53 AM
Very good analysis. One discrepancy though

Every month USCIS allocates 249 visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 4 months from March 2011 to June 2011.

In this FY, there is no FB spill over and the annual limit is 140K E visas. The annual EB1/2/3 cap is 40K each. , which brings the monthly cap to 233.

Absence of 10 FB spill also means EB1 will eat into EB5 spill over.

gcwait2007
02-11-2011, 08:29 AM
Very good analysis. One discrepancy though


In this FY, there is no FB spill over and the annual limit is 140K E visas. The annual EB1/2/3 cap is 40K each. , which brings the monthly cap to 233.

Absence of 10 FB spill also means EB1 will eat into EB5 spill over.

I agree. Sorry for the typo error. I edited my post to reflect this correct picture. Thanks.

immig4me
02-11-2011, 11:09 AM
Since this thread gets a high viewership, thought I will mention the advocacy efforts IV is undertaking this April. It is important that in addition to predicting when you will get the green card, to actively participate in efforts that may get the green card much faster than the one you are currently hoping for.....

You can contribute for this event in many ways...through your participation, through monetary contributions and through donating miles to fellow IV members who will be speaking on your behalf.
Please check my signature for the links.
Thanks guys!

EB3Victim
02-11-2011, 12:33 PM
The porting from EB3I to EB2I is in the range of 270 to 275 visas each month, in the last few months..

Thanks for the analysis, could you tell me how did you come up with the number as 270 for EB3I to EB2I porting

EB2-buddy
02-11-2011, 02:50 PM
March Bulletin is Out.
Good news for EB3 and no movement for EB2.
Is Porting impact concrete here??

vishwak
02-11-2011, 02:51 PM
Bulletin Out....no Change for EB2-I

EB2-I needs to wait till July...people like me.

ireddy
02-11-2011, 02:54 PM
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5337.html

Michael chertoff
02-11-2011, 02:56 PM
Bulletin Out....no Change for EB2-I

EB2-I needs to wait till July...people like me.
these EB3 people are changing lines and creating problems, why cant they stay where they belong. now you all will start attacking me. thats ok.

MC

Michael chertoff
02-11-2011, 03:02 PM
Bulletin Out....no Change for EB2-I

EB2-I needs to wait till July...people like me.

There is no guarantee that you will get in July. If all EB3 will jump in front of you then you have to wait till JULY 2020.

MC

little_willy
02-11-2011, 03:13 PM
MC - Why so much hatred towards EB3. Come July, you will be out of this misery but not the EB3 folks. You don't have the patience to wait for few months and blame people waiting for years and trying to expedite their case by following the rules.

Anyway, here is Ron Gotcher's take on this, I thought of you when I read this.
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/article-regarding-eb2-india-12841/index2.html#post55498

silveroaks
02-12-2011, 12:08 PM
Teddy/GCWait
one thread above has a good question about counselor numbers. Do we have these numbers accounted in all our calculations?

Thanks,

AshokApex
02-12-2011, 02:04 PM
March 2011 already released and still may 2006 , what hope for my PD which is 2008 March in EB2.

any hope in next 2 years.

when i can expect my number.

Thanks
A-

krish2006
02-12-2011, 02:09 PM
Teddy/GCWait
one thread above has a good question about counselor numbers. Do we have these numbers accounted in all our calculations?

Thanks,

In the first post of this Thread there is a CP column. These caclulations takes into consideration consular processing numbers. (about 100 a month in the calculations)

veni001
02-12-2011, 02:52 PM
March 2011 already released and still may 2006 , what hope for my PD which is 2008 March in EB2.

any hope in next 2 years.

when i can expect my number.

Thanks
A-

Rule of 5, so you will get a chance by Sept 2013.;)

belmontboy
02-12-2011, 04:17 PM
Rule of 5, so you will get a chance by Sept 2013.;)

assumption: without (or) less porting :D

bratramm
02-14-2011, 10:19 AM
Given that the PD (EB2-I) has not moved since October 2010, would it be fair to say that the reason is mostly due to porting (EB3-I)? I am sure that there are other reasons, but porting seems to be the biggest user of the monthly quota.....
Which would mean about 250 ports a month-almost 3000 ports a year, for PD before May 2006!
Also I am sure people with PD later than May 2006 are also porting, but their numbers would not affect the movement just yet, but as TEDDY says, 6000 does not seem to be a very big number anymore. People with PD beyond 2005/2006 are more likely to port than those with PD before. That number (6000) is only going to grow more and more till EB2-I movement stops completely and retrogresses.

dont know if that qualifies as good news or bad news....
It could be worse.....the dates could be retrogressing to keep up with the porting overload....
cheers
[/QUOTE]
- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.


__________________[/QUOTE]

gcwait2007
02-14-2011, 01:08 PM
Given that the PD (EB2-I) has not moved since October 2010, would it be fair to say that the reason is mostly due to porting (EB3-I)? I am sure that there are other reasons, but porting seems to be the biggest user of the monthly quota.....
Which would mean about 250 ports a month-almost 3000 ports a year, for PD before May 2006!
Also I am sure people with PD later than May 2006 are also porting, but their numbers would not affect the movement just yet, but as TEDDY says, 6000 does not seem to be a very big number anymore. People with PD beyond 2005/2006 are more likely to port than those with PD before. That number (6000) is only going to grow more and more till EB2-I movement stops completely and retrogresses.

dont know if that qualifies as good news or bad news....
It could be worse.....the dates could be retrogressing to keep up with the porting overload....
cheers

- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.

Porting cannot go happening all the time. It is a standard distribution (bell shaped curve); it begins slowly; peaks at some point of time and slowly ends.

The beginning happened about 2 years ago, around 2008. The peaking has been happened in late 2009 and 2010. Whoever can port to EB2India, they tried these 2 years and ported. The porting is on the decline, as per comments from well known immig attorney Ron Gotcher.

bratramm
02-14-2011, 02:08 PM
I think porting is here to stay.....I just am not sure how exponentially high it is going to go up....
....given the current climate of EB2 moving faster than the EB3, and given the widening gap between the two, there will be more people who will greatly benefit by "moving up".....
...think about it...someone files for EB3 now....and knows very well that it will take about 15 years to get a GC.....but in 5 yrs, they might get upgraded to EB2 and still retain the PD from the EB3 and get a GC instantly......
....soon EB2 will start porting to EB1.....if not already.....i am surpirsed that the EB1 numbers are as low as they are....for every 10 people that port to EB2, at least one person must be porting to EB1......

but anyway, i dont want to take this topic from its path......its all about the calculations....come July, its all about reality,.....

gcpb
02-14-2011, 02:54 PM
Porting cannot go happening all the time. It is a standard distribution (bell shaped curve); it begins slowly; peaks at some point of time and slowly ends.

The beginning happened about 2 years ago, around 2008. The peaking has been happened in late 2009 and 2010. Whoever can port to EB2India, they tried these 2 years and ported. The porting is on the decline, as per comments from well known immig attorney Ron Gotcher.

Whie porting activity may be a bell shaped curve which may well be on the decline, note that its impact will NOT be bell shaped. What I mean to say is those with later PD will be more motivated to port. Thus the distribution of PD will be more heavy for later years. This will lead to greater EB2 inventory for later years. Thus, we should not underestimate this factor

snathan
02-14-2011, 03:22 PM
Whie porting activity may be a bell shaped curve which may well be on the decline, note that its impact will NOT be bell shaped. What I mean to say is those with later PD will be more motivated to port. Thus the distribution of PD will be more heavy for later years. This will lead to greater EB2 inventory for later years. Thus, we should not underestimate this factor

If more people are porting, it’s going to invite more scrutiny from the USCIS like the H1B, L1B. I am sure the porting will completely stop if it’s not genuine as its going to jeoparadise their EB3 also. Just it’s a matter of time. So chill out.

bratramm
02-14-2011, 05:01 PM
I was trying to go back to the original forum thread and understand teh calculations posted by the likes of and rest, but I am never able to hold on to one page....

...long story short, I wanted tos ee what lessons we can learn from our prediction model from lat year-we were so hopeful to be past 2007 last year, but never did that...where were we so optimistic last year? which part of the calclulation did not pan out as we thought they would?

as we head to the last quarter, it might do us some good to reflect back on the work of others before....just a thought

RamBihari
02-14-2011, 06:21 PM
Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.

waitingnwaiting
02-14-2011, 06:36 PM
Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.

So you created a profile just to post this?
Can't you post this from your own original profile? Why are so scared to post something from your original profile if you really believe in something.:D

NELLAIKUMAR
02-14-2011, 07:06 PM
deleted

RamBihari
02-14-2011, 07:19 PM
So you created a profile just to post this?
Can't you post this from your own original profile? Why are so scared to post something from your original profile if you really believe in something.:D


Dude, I have too many PRECIOUS GREENS that I need to conserve on my original profile. There is army of overly optimistic members ready to attack any non-confirming entities. This overly Optimistic and underly realistic army religiously hails to the predictions of self proclaimed EB-Pundits and shun out any guy posting realistic scenarios. I hope that these guys get out of imagination-land sooner than later.

sanz
02-14-2011, 07:27 PM
Wish the Greens in the Profile could translate to Green Card.....

The Elixir of Life.

RamBihari
02-14-2011, 07:42 PM
Wish the Greens in the Profile could translate to Green Card.....

The Elixir of Life.

Eventually it will ... But guess you'll have to hail Teddy to get exact dates and time.

scorpion00
02-14-2011, 08:50 PM
Teddy,
Do you have any data/numbers for EB3 ROW? I am not sure why it's not moving the way it should. Do you see EB3 ROW touching 2006 by September'2011?

Thanks in advance.


Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007
EB3 I- APR 15 2002


Folowing is my current draft still work in progress will be editing it soon

Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumlative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 30126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 32485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 34871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 37200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 39389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 42319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 47880

- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory. By this time we should assume that 3 months worth of cap for India and China has been consumed. So ~ 1400 Numbers are consumed.

- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.

- The starting offset for India assumes 6K PD Porting + 700 Cases Approved + 500 old cases not approved = 7200. For China it Assumes 700 Cases Approved + 100 older cases. The total offset at the start is 8000. We should assume the porting as part of the offset as we will not se any movement till Jul. Looks like porting is only happening for India.

- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500 lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the inventory is the baseline.

- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point.

- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K

Now lets analyze on That Website to see the trend for Oct 2010 to Jan 2011

Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB2 ROW – 211 EB2 NIW – 34 Total - 245
EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 196
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB2 ROW – 153 EB2 NIW – 16 Total - 169
EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 53
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-26925 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (169/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 20K ~ 14K.
EB5 SOFAD will be ~ 8K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 18 + 5 = 34K.
With ~ 34 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this will put us at 01-JAN02007.
Best case scenario is EB1 gives us an extra 10K and the PWMB demand will be felt only when the dates cross May 2007 so kind of add 13K on top of the 34K this can actually help to throw us over the fence finally to 01-AUG-2007, this again is extremely optimistic but not impossible. We just have to continue monitoring for more time.

__________________

RamBihari
02-14-2011, 09:28 PM
Not sure if I deserve that many reds for speaking out what most of us know. I guess it hurts to know the truth. I appreciate the efforts of IV Core team and others state chapter members to work towards immigration reforms. While we try that, we should not go far away from reality and build the sand castles by calculating the dates using unpublished and imaginary data.

All Sand castles came down crashing down last year when EB2 dates moved only 14 months but were projected to move much further by Pundits.
Don't raise your expectations and hope same for this year.

The realistic movement is 4-5 months given the influx of EB3 to EB2 porting. I am EB2 but strongly support the right of EB3 to be able to port. Lets not be divided EB1,EB2 or EB3, lets try to work as united EB-India.



Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.

eastindia
02-15-2011, 11:01 AM
Not sure if I deserve that many reds for speaking out what most of us know. I guess it hurts to know the truth. I appreciate the efforts of IV Core team and others state chapter members to work towards immigration reforms. While we try that, we should not go far away from reality and build the sand castles by calculating the dates using unpublished and imaginary data.

All Sand castles came down crashing down last year when EB2 dates moved only 14 months but were projected to move much further by Pundits.
Don't raise your expectations and hope same for this year.

The realistic movement is 4-5 months given the influx of EB3 to EB2 porting. I am EB2 but strongly support the right of EB3 to be able to port. Lets not be divided EB1,EB2 or EB3, lets try to work as united EB-India.

If you truly appreciate IV's efforts then show it by being a donor member. By posting that you appreciate, IV does not get anything to continue the good work they are doing.

jetflyer
02-15-2011, 12:05 PM
If you truly appreciate IV's efforts then show it by being a donor member. By posting that you appreciate, IV does not get anything to continue the good work they are doing.

Eastindia... are you am agent of IV, you are asking everybody for money. People will give if they want to. may be same people are helping IV in other ways.

Relax.

Jet

bratramm
02-15-2011, 12:10 PM
Its good to be realistic, and we all need a 'reality check' quite a few times...all of us have collateral associated with the PD....while optimism reigned supreme in 2010, we should not fall victim to the same this year....and maybe we can be cautiously optimistic......given that we have no FB based visa numbers, and we have more porting, nad that USCIS will be extremly cautious as it approaces the July 2007 timeline, should we add more caution to the numbers so well calculated by TEDDY? I thought our biggest assumption that did not pan out was the reliance on the numbers from "website that shall not be named"......

Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.

bondgoli007
02-15-2011, 02:59 PM
MC - Why so much hatred towards EB3. Come July, you will be out of this misery but not the EB3 folks. You don't have the patience to wait for few months and blame people waiting for years and trying to expedite their case by following the rules.

Anyway, here is Ron Gotcher's take on this, I thought of you when I read this.
Article regarding EB2 India (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/article-regarding-eb2-india-12841/index2.html#post55498)
I suggest every EB2 who is cribbing about porting read this link!!

I am EB2 and porting will hurt me but I am also grateful for the spillover visas that are now giving EB2 more hope than ever. So I will Thank God that I will get my GC in 3-5 years and have no problem when genuine EB3 to EB2 porting occurs.

Now the only thing I would like to disagree on is when EB3 people quote their Masters degrees and the fact that they have experience worth EB2 application which is really irrelevant. I say this because your Labor app is not based on your qualification (which could be EB2 worth) but on the requirements of the position.

Either ways, hope everyone on these forums maintains a basic respect for each other and more importantly help in anyway possible with the Advocacy efforts of IV core.

waitingnwaiting
02-15-2011, 03:25 PM
I suggest every EB2 who is cribbing about porting read this link!!

I am EB2 and porting will hurt me but I am also grateful for the spillover visas that are now giving EB2 more hope than ever. So I will Thank God that I will get my GC in 3-5 years and have no problem when genuine EB3 to EB2 porting occurs.

Now the only thing I would like to disagree on is when EB3 people quote their Masters degrees and the fact that they have experience worth EB2 application which is really irrelevant. I say this because your Labor app is not based on your qualification (which could be EB2 worth) but on the requirements of the position.

Either ways, hope everyone on these forums maintains a basic respect for each other and more importantly help in anyway possible with the Advocacy efforts of IV core.

Are we all not famous for pulling each other down and caring little about others?

PlainSpeak
02-15-2011, 03:47 PM
Are we all not famous for pulling each other down and caring little about others?

waitingnwaiting i see that your line of thought is quite different now then what it was when we exchanged thoughts and posts a few weeks back on another thread. Surprising how a person's view point changes so drastically in such a short time :p

Coming to this thread ...
- Yes we are famous for pulling each other down ....
- But what we are also famous for helping people we know nothing about and have never met face to face before or helping people we know without being asked and without expecting anything in return

I know that sounds like we all are bi-polar but i tend to dwell on the good and ignore the bad

In any case the persons pulling down are in the minority ..... so chill :cool:

bratramm
02-15-2011, 04:07 PM
say-why would an admin(pappu) delete posts that are neither offensive/abusive?
Is there a censor board that operates outside of the IV forum rules?
Am I the only one that is affected by this?

StarSun
02-17-2011, 12:00 PM
Hey Guys,
There is an advocacy event organized for the benefit of people who are stuck in the GC process for long.

Take part in it.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1901186-action-item-advocacy-days-in-washington-dc-in-april-2011-a.html

gcpb
02-17-2011, 02:50 PM
All Sand castles came down crashing down last year when EB2 dates moved only 14 months but were projected to move much further by Pundits.


Hold on. Some corrections to the above, if I may please:
1. Movement was "more than 15" months, not "only 14"
2. ". . . castles came down crashing . . . projected to move much further" is also a misrepresentation because
--a) Primary prediction was for Nov. Thus deviation was 6 out of 15 = 40%
--b) Prior to this thread, the prediction was for 3 - 4 months of movement. Thus deviation prior to this thread was 11 out of 15 > 66%
This shows significant improvement.

Moreover, I recall that the major reason for the 40% deviation was due to unavailability of porting numbers. We basically need to focus on this aspect alone, IMHO, and the rest will be easily derived

gcwait2007
02-17-2011, 06:04 PM
Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007
EB3 I- APR 15 2002


Folowing is my current draft still work in progress will be editing it soon

Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumlative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 30126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 32485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 34871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 37200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 39389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 42319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 47880

- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory. By this time we should assume that 3 months worth of cap for India and China has been consumed. So ~ 1400 Numbers are consumed.

- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.

- The starting offset for India assumes 6K PD Porting + 700 Cases Approved + 500 old cases not approved = 7200. For China it Assumes 700 Cases Approved + 100 older cases. The total offset at the start is 8000. We should assume the porting as part of the offset as we will not se any movement till Jul. Looks like porting is only happening for India.

- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500 lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the inventory is the baseline.

- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point.

- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K

Now lets analyze on That Website to see the trend for Oct 2010 to Jan 2011

Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB2 ROW – 211 EB2 NIW – 34 Total - 245
EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 196
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB2 ROW – 153 EB2 NIW – 16 Total - 169
EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 53
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-26925 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (169/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 20K ~ 14K.
EB5 SOFAD will be ~ 8K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 18 + 5 = 34K.
With ~ 34 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this will put us at 01-JAN02007.
Best case scenario is EB1 gives us an extra 10K and the PWMB demand will be felt only when the dates cross May 2007 so kind of add 13K on top of the 34K this can actually help to throw us over the fence finally to 01-AUG-2007, this again is extremely optimistic but not impossible. We just have to continue monitoring for more time.

__________________

Is the work complete now?

gcpb
02-17-2011, 09:57 PM
We basically need to focus on this aspect (i.e. porting count) alone, IMHO, and the rest will be easily derived

To this end, I had posted earlier in this forum with some calculations. The numbers I arrived at seemed way too optimistic, though, with less than 300 EB3I --> EB2I portings in 2010. Anybody has any comments on that?

eastindia
02-18-2011, 10:44 AM
Latest predictions after calculations.

EB2 India

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 30-Oct-06
September - 15-Dec-06

Optimistic scenario

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 15-Nov-06
September -15-Jan-07

eastindia
02-18-2011, 10:56 AM
So get off the prediction threads and put some effort in advocacy and donations.


It starts with you before you preach. Show us what you are doing with IV to help with advocacy and what is your donation this month.
Stop preaching if you cannot follow what you preach. You are EB3 and will be like this if you do not donate and go to lobby day. So stop wasting time and book your tickets to lobby day.

tonyHK12
02-18-2011, 10:59 AM
So get off the prediction threads and put some effort in advocacy and donations.


This is probably the first post of yours I agree with, but it applies to everybody EB2 and EB3. Besides newbies, predictions also have value in terms of helping people relocate, change jobs, in investments, or to throw in the towel.
I also feel this helps most people who are close to getting current.

tonyHK12
02-18-2011, 11:46 AM
Well all they have on the prediction threads are EB2 prediction so why not man up and title the thread as EB2 predictions. That way we know what it is about. Also i personally feel that for this wave of advocacy especially EB2 should be contributing for advocacy instead of wasting time as they have a real chance of success.
.
Just to clarify both EB2 and EB3 have a real chance of success. There is no Bill we can write today that will benefit only EB2. There is no such thing in IVs provisions. Its time to stop saying IV is not doing anything for EB3.

imh1b
02-18-2011, 11:53 AM
Plainspeak, Do you have an employer or you are a stay at home Mom or just an unemployed person. Maybe you are some out of status H1B immigrant staying illegally and now having something against other legal folks doing something.
Whatever you are. You just have lot of time in this world to waste if you do not believe in what IV does. You may even be an employee of some other immigration website paid to post such negative messages on this forum. I have always suspected those paid employees being against IV because of their business is threatened by popularity of IV.

imh1b
02-18-2011, 11:56 AM
Just to clarify both EB2 and EB3 have a real chance of success. There is no Bill we can write today that will benefit only EB2. There is no such thing in IVs provisions. Its time to stop saying IV is not doing anything for EB3.

Tony, this plainspeak guy looks like one of the paid employees of other immigration website to me sitting in a small room in India and typing with multiple usernames in the night on forums to help increase visitors. He is just threatened by the fact that a lot of people are watching this prediction thread and joining advocacy day action item instead of spending time on his site. Te longer people are waiting for Greencards, the more time people will come to his website. So IV work is not in his 'principle' of things. :)

Michael chertoff
02-18-2011, 12:03 PM
Plainspeak, Do you have an employer or you are a stay at home Mom or just an unemployed person. Maybe you are some out of status H1B immigrant staying illegally and now having something against other legal folks doing something.
Whatever you are. You just have lot of time in this world to waste if you do not believe in what IV does. You may even be an employee of some other immigration website paid to post such negative messages on this forum. I have always suspected those paid employees being against IV because of their business is threatened by popularity of IV.

Dear friend. it looks like Plainspeak is member of IV since 2006 and he had posted less then half number of posts then you have posted who is just a newbie in this forum, you can tell who have more time and who is stay home mom or stay home pop.

I am not agreeing with Plainspeak on dividing EB3 and Eb2.

work together man, dont insult anyone on saying something you dont like. specially when you are not talking face to face.

Cheers,

MC

sanz
02-18-2011, 12:56 PM
Plainspeak, Do you have an employer
Yes.... and a nice american one too

:D

In US, doesnt everyone have American employer ... ???

Or is that something unusual :D:D:D:D:eek:

krishmunn
02-18-2011, 01:13 PM
i never do predictions

From your other post --- "Why do you EB2 guys waste your time on prediction threads? The dates for you guys will any how move in the last quarter and in a year or two it will become current."

Is that not a "prediction" !!

gcwait2007
02-18-2011, 01:26 PM
Latest predictions after calculations.

EB2 India

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 30-Oct-06
September - 15-Dec-06

Optimistic scenario

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 15-Nov-06
September -15-Jan-07

Thanks.

Can some one advise me how one can port from EB2 to EB1?

I have a masters degree, coupled with 25 yrs IT experience.

PlainSpeak
02-18-2011, 01:47 PM
Admin(Pappu) - Thank you for deleting all the messages ...

Goodintentions
02-18-2011, 10:11 PM
Dear All,

While all educated and right thinking people would like to welcome dissent and differing opinions, we cannot allow divisive and hate messages when our situation is really in a hot seat and unity is the prime need of the hour . As such, it is really a good move to delete such messages in the interest of our community. These people sow the seeds of poison, create negative vibrations and also distract the community from using their time/ effort for the betterment of the suffering EB folks.

I am sure most of the members will support this. I am sure that if this done, we can brainstorm and use our energy in a more positive way!

GOD bless the EB community!

Best wishes!

gckabaayega
02-21-2011, 12:01 AM
Hi Teddy,

My PD is May 2010 EB2-I, I know I have a long wait time.. but my question is: suppose the priority date reaches July 2007, as there are no more 485s pending will they make it current?

Michael chertoff
02-21-2011, 12:18 AM
Hi Teddy,

My PD is May 2010 EB2-I, I know I have a long wait time.. but my question is: suppose the priority date reaches July 2007, as there are no more 485s pending will they make it current?

which year you came to US?

gckabaayega
02-21-2011, 12:20 AM
how does that matter? I came in 2002

Michael chertoff
02-21-2011, 01:00 AM
how does that matter? I came in 2002

My friend I thought you are new to US and worried about GC so soon, sorry you are just like me, long time here. we all will get GC soon.

I am also here from 10+ years and still waiting.

Thanks

MC

PlainSpeak
02-21-2011, 10:00 AM
From -4678 to +245 points ......
Yahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh no more reds all greens
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

PlainSpeak
02-21-2011, 01:14 PM
Hi Teddy,

My PD is May 2010 EB2-I, I know I have a long wait time.. but my question is: suppose the priority date reaches July 2007, as there are no more 485s pending will they make it current?

If USICS clears all apps till July 2007 then USCIS will be faced with moving the EB2 dates forward. The dates will move ahead based on the numbers of EB2 application in 2007 (Aug-Dec), 2008, 2009 and likewise. Check the count pdf (i am sure it is somewhere on the website) and check for the coutnof EB2 people before your date of May 2010 and make your own calculation

vactorboy29
02-21-2011, 02:41 PM
Another stat. good web site you can see how much top notch companies are paying to H1B and GC holder.

In fiscal year 2010, employers filed 81,412 permanent labor certifications for employment based green card, a surge from 51,067 in 2008, 33,165 in 2009.

The huge increase is encouraging, but not a surprise to analysts at MyVisaJobs.com. In their May 2010 news letter, they already predicted 2010 would become the best year since 2001 for foreigners to get visa jobs, click here to read.

Another encouraging sign is, only 8,384, or about 10%, of those labor certifications were denied. The denial rate was nearly 20% in 2008. The processing time used by Dept of Labor(DOL) has also been shortened greatly. Immigration attorneys recently reported DOL approved most labor certifications within 30 days. It took them more than half a year to make decisions in 2008.

Two thirds of those green card petitions were filed for people born in India, South Korea, Mexico, China, Canada and Philippines. While Software Engineer, System Analyst and Professors are still the top 3 green card careers, over 2,000 labor certifications were filed for Cooks and Chefs!

Many greedy employers hire large number of foreign workers, but are reluctant to sponsor green card for their hard working employees. Which employers can you trust? Cognizant Technology Solutions, an Indian consultant company, beat Intel and Cisco and became the No. 1 green card sponsor in 2010.

While we are still analyzing the data and preparing for more in-depth reports, we suggest you review the following green card reports together with H1B visa reports ASAP. Employers are changing their hiring and sponsoring policies, so be sure to adjust your job searching strategy accordingly.
1. 2011 Top 100 Green Card Sponsor
2. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Case Status: Certified, Denied or Withdrawn
3. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Beneficiary Citizenship
4. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Beneficiary Visa Status
5. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Job Title
6. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Industry
7. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Occupation
8. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Work State
9. 2011 Top Green Card Sponsors by Work City
10. Coming Soon: More in-depth H1B Visa Reports
11. Coming Soon: 2011 H2B Visa Reports
12. Coming Soon: 2011 H2A Visa Reports
myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-2011.aspx?T=ST

vdlrao
02-21-2011, 06:13 PM
It's rediculous on CTS to apply 1005 green card petitions for a single year!!!!!!!!!!!. Which takes a big portion of india's allocation. It's about 1005 * 3 = 3000 Green cards. Which is equalent to India's regular allocation.

http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx

snathan
02-21-2011, 06:22 PM
It's rediculous on CTS to apply 1005 green card petitions for a single year!!!!!!!!!!!. Which takes a big portion of india's allocation. It's about 1005 * 3 = 3000 Green cards. Which is equalent to India's regular allocation.

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx)

There was a news some time back, CTS was filing GC in EB1 stating the developers as scientist. I am not sure how far its true. Is there any way how to find in which category they have got this 1005 filed.

GC means which stage they are talking about. 1) I-485 approval or I140 or Labor?

vdlrao
02-21-2011, 06:31 PM
There was a news some time back, CTS was filing GC in EB1 stating the developers as scientist. I am not sure how far its true. Is there any way how to find in which category they have got this 1005 filed.

GC means which stage they are talking about. 1) I-485 approval or I140 or Labor?

GC petition means labour petetion.

Work Visa Solution: H1B Work Visa, H2B Work Visa, Visa Jobs and Employment Green Card in United States | MyVisajobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/)


http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx

spicy_guy
02-21-2011, 06:50 PM
It's rediculous on CTS to apply 1005 green card petitions for a single year!!!!!!!!!!!. Which takes a big portion of india's allocation. It's about 1005 * 3 = 3000 Green cards. Which is equalent to India's regular allocation.

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx)

I think this one should be one of the points in IV's agenda. That is, if USCIS does not count non-primary applicants, I think all current backlog can be eliminated. :-)

dkshitij
02-21-2011, 07:02 PM
I think this one should be one of the points in IV's agenda. That is, if USCIS does not count non-primary applicants, I think all current backlog can be eliminated. :-)

It is not the USCIS who decides that. It the law passed by the Congress that makes it so.

So please speak with the elected representatives from your area to change the law.

gcFiler08
02-21-2011, 07:21 PM
It's rediculous on CTS to apply 1005 green card petitions for a single year!!!!!!!!!!!. Which takes a big portion of india's allocation. It's about 1005 * 3 = 3000 Green cards. Which is equalent to India's regular allocation.

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx)

About 70% of the 1005 are from people who have L1 visa. I guess they would be doing EB1.
This is a rampant fraud going on.

dkshitij
02-21-2011, 07:37 PM
About 70% of the 1005 are from people who have L1 visa. I guess they would be doing EB1.
This is a rampant fraud going on.

They might be on L1 visa but they certainly won't be filing in EB1 if they chose to file labor certification/PERM.

ryan
02-21-2011, 09:02 PM
It's rediculous on CTS to apply 1005 green card petitions for a single year!!!!!!!!!!!. Which takes a big portion of india's allocation. It's about 1005 * 3 = 3000 Green cards. Which is equalent to India's regular allocation.

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx)

Yes, it's beyond ridiculous. What also irate is the fact, every single filing they have had are for Indians. There isn't evidence of a resident card filing (or hiring) of citizens from other countries. If I'm reading the link correctly, it implies, Cognizant "hires " just from ONE country? Isn't there any trigger points that would force an audit or a review by the watchdogs at USCIS? This is blatant, or at the least borders on blatant discrimination and favoritism, and of course manipulation of the system..it's just so unfortunate for many folks, even those with Cognizant in good faith.

snathan
02-21-2011, 09:34 PM
About 70% of the 1005 are from people who have L1 visa. I guess they would be doing EB1.
This is a rampant fraud going on.

EB1 does not need PERM.

glimmerOfHope
02-21-2011, 10:46 PM
Quite a few of Computer Systems Analysts titled LC were either withdrawn by Cognizant or they were denied.

Cognizant Technology Solutions : Denied H1B Visa and Green Card(PERM) Applications | Myvisajobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/h1b-visa/h1b-visa-perm-denied.aspx?CI=119153)

Employment Based Green Card: Cognizant (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Green-Card-Perm/-TT/Cognizant-CN/-C/-S/All-Y/PERM-TP.htm)

I doubt if the data is reliable or if the site is mismanaged as a lot of links leads you to the same data.

vdlrao
02-22-2011, 05:18 AM
EB1 does not need PERM.



So it means they might have applied few hundreds in EB1 as well!!!!!!!!. Which will eat up about a 1,000 Green cards? So all together it's about 4,000 Green cards just for one year for Cognizent?

vdlrao
02-22-2011, 09:27 AM
1 USD
(USD = U.S. dollar)
-----------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 46.56 INR 46.5637

21 Feb 2011 44.92 INR 44.9224


------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 8.28 CNY 8.2777
21 Feb 2011 6.57 CNY 6.5674


--------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 116.52 JPY 116.5152

21 Feb 2011 83.16 JPY 83.1615
--------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 0.69 GBP 0.6922

21 Feb 2011 0.62 GBP 0.6161

--------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 1.54 CAD 1.5380

21 Feb 2011 0.98 CAD 0.9838

----------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 1.91 AUD 1.9054

21 Feb 2011 0.99 AUD 0.9913

-------------------------------------


22 Feb 2001 1.10 EUR 1.1025

21 Feb 2011 0.73 EUR 0.7313


-------------------------------------



The above information shows the depreciation in dollar value in the last 10 years against all currecies except Indian Rupee. No need to mention about the trillions of dollars accumalated at the China Central Bank.



It also shows the Indian Rupee also depreciating against all the currencies except dollar. And just for your info., RBI is not controling the dollar rate against rupee like china. Also India doesn't have dollar reserves (except couple of hundreds of billions) like China(Which has few trillions of dollars). No need to mention what happens if China sells out all the dollars it has.



So it's been 10 years we been here in USA. Still waiting for the GC. I hope by the time we get our GCs there's some value remaining for the dollar. Other wise all this waiting for the GC would be useless.



http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchform.html

PlainSpeak
02-22-2011, 10:28 AM
I would say that all those who talk about the downslide of USA will be wrong as they were wrong all the times it happened in the past . See history from 1900 to 1980.......
There has been number of times that everyone else in the world started predicting that dollor value is gone and that USA is not going to be the biggest economy in the world but they were proved worng then and they wil be proved wrong now again. So worrying about delay in green card and tying it to the shrinking dollor is not right. Yes there is delay in green card but if and when we get the green card the dollor will still be the leading currency of the world.

Now that i have done pontificating about world history ...

Regarding CTS.. Yes there has been some manipulation of the system just like all what was done by the other big indian consulting companies like TCS, Wipro and others, but there is nothing we can do about it. USCIS is more efficient in auditing and catching these fraud cases and close the loop hole then it was before so we need to leave that in hands of USCIS (Like i said before.. Let them earn their pay)
:):):)

blacktongue
02-22-2011, 11:00 AM
What is prediction for EB2 China and EB3 China?

vdlrao
02-22-2011, 11:55 AM
What is prediction for EB2 China and EB3 China?

You could expect EB2 China PD to be about March 2007 by Aug 2011. No Idea about EB3. May be Teddy might be helpful abt EB3 China movement.

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 12:00 PM
You could expect EB2 China PD to be about March 2007 by Aug 2011. No Idead about EB3. May be Teddy might be helpful abt EB3 China movement.

welcome back vdlrao

dummgelauft
02-22-2011, 01:45 PM
I would say that all those who talk about the downslide of USA will be wrong as they were wrong all the times it happened in the past . See history from 1900 to 1980.......
There has been number of times that everyone else in the world started predicting that dollor value is gone and that USA is not going to be the biggest economy in the world but they were proved worng then and they wil be proved wrong now again. So worrying about delay in green card and tying it to the shrinking dollor is not right. Yes there is delay in green card but if and when we get the green card the dollor will still be the leading currency of the world.

Now that i have done pontificating about world history ...

Regarding CTS.. Yes there has been some manipulation of the system just like all what was done by the other big indian consulting companies like TCS, Wipro and others, but there is nothing we can do about it. USCIS is more efficient in auditing and catching these fraud cases and close the loop hole then it was before so we need to leave that in hands of USCIS (Like i said before.. Let them earn their pay)
:):):)

Yes, US is here to stay for good while, and so is the dollAr. It was in 1946, when one of my Dad's uncles came to US for his Ph.D that $1.00 US was = Rupee 1.00..!!. It never has been like that since and it never will be....

h1techSlave
02-22-2011, 02:01 PM
India's first coins after independence were issued in 1950. So your uncle is not really talking about Indian rupee. The exchange rate in 1950 was 4.7619 rupees for one US dollar.
Tables of historical exchange rates to the USD - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tables_of_historical_exchange_rates_to_the_USD#Tab le_for_1840_to_2000)


Yes, US is here to stay for good while, and so is the dollAr. It was in 1946, when one of my Dad's uncles came to US for his Ph.D that $1.00 US was = Rupee 1.00..!!. It never has been like that since and it never will be....

dummgelauft
02-22-2011, 02:14 PM
India's first coins after independence were issued in 1950. So your uncle is not really talking about Indian rupee. The exchange rate in 1950 was 4.7619 rupees for one US dollar.
Tables of historical exchange rates to the USD - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tables_of_historical_exchange_rates_to_the_USD#Tab le_for_1840_to_2000)

You are right, but I am just trying to make a point here..okay, even Rs. 4.7619 to $1.00 US does not make much of a difference to the argument that I was making.

snathan
02-22-2011, 02:17 PM
1 USD
(USD = U.S. dollar)
-----------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 46.56 INR 46.5637

21 Feb 2011 44.92 INR 44.9224


------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 8.28 CNY 8.2777
21 Feb 2011 6.57 CNY 6.5674


--------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 116.52 JPY 116.5152

21 Feb 2011 83.16 JPY 83.1615
--------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 0.69 GBP 0.6922

21 Feb 2011 0.62 GBP 0.6161

--------------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 1.54 CAD 1.5380

21 Feb 2011 0.98 CAD 0.9838

----------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 1.91 AUD 1.9054

21 Feb 2011 0.99 AUD 0.9913

-------------------------------------


22 Feb 2001 1.10 EUR 1.1025

21 Feb 2011 0.73 EUR 0.7313


-------------------------------------



The above information shows the depreciation in dollar value in the last 10 years against all currecies except Indian Rupee. No need to mention about the trillions of dollars accumalated at the China Central Bank.



It also shows the Indian Rupee also depreciating against all the currencies except dollar. And just for your info., RBI is not controling the dollar rate against rupee like china. Also India doesn't have dollar reserves (except couple of hundreds of billions) like China(Which has few trillions of dollars). No need to mention what happens if China sells out all the dollars it has.



So it's been 10 years we been here in USA. Still waiting for the GC. I hope by the time we get our GCs there's some value remaining for the dollar. Other wise all this waiting for the GC would be useless.



10-year currency converter- Exchange rates- Rates and Statistics- Bank of Canada (http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchform.html)

History has left so many countries in the dustbin who underestimated the US. Simply there is not going to be a doomsday for US or for the green buck. We are talking about all these hoopla because of some good growth in India for the last 10 years and China for the last 20-30 years. But the living standard is nowhere near the US and won’t be there for another couple of decades(India – it will take 100 years due to all these scams and corruption). Even in 1980s there was a prediction the Japanese going to overtake the US economy and never happened.

I don’t see any other country to replace the US due to

1) economic stability 2) Free market 3) Political Stability

EU - Too fragile
China - Not market friendly, authoritarian rule
Japan - Too small
India - Small Economy, Political instability, hostile neighbors.

But we should more worry about Chinese economy and its impact on world economy. Everything in the Chinese economy is manipulated including their currency and the growth rate. One day chicken will come home for roast and that day we are going to see the fire works

I am keepting it short as I am typing this in a hurry...have fun.

h1techSlave
02-22-2011, 02:36 PM
You are right that if you simply look at the exchange rates, Indian currency retains only 10% of it 1950's value.

But the exchange rate (in India's case) is giving us a wrong impression regarding the wealth of India and the well being of Indians. So what really matters is how well off Indians are now compared to Indians in 1950. There are two indicators for measuring that: 1. Human Development Index and GDP-PPP of average Indian. In both of these measures, we have made enormous progress.

You are right, but I am just trying to make a point here..okay, even Rs. 4.7619 to $1.00 US does not make much of a difference to the argument that I was making.

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 02:41 PM
History has left so many countries in the dustbin who underestimated the US. Simply there is not going to be a doomsday for US or for the green buck. We are talking about all these hoopla because of some good growth in India for the last 10 years and China for the last 20-30 years. But the living standard is nowhere near the US and won’t be there for another couple of decades(India – it will take 100 years due to all these scams and corruption). Even in 1980s there was a prediction the Japanese going to overtake the US economy and never happened.

I don’t see any other country to replace the US due to

1) economic stability 2) Free market 3) Political Stability

EU - Too fragile
China - Not market friendly, authoritarian rule
Japan - Too small
India - Small Economy, Political instability, hostile neighbors.

But we should more worry about Chinese economy and its impact on world economy. Everything in the Chinese economy is manipulated including their currency and the growth rate. One day chicken will come home for roast and that day we are going to see the fire works

I am keepting it short as I am typing this in a hurry...have fun.

Indian economy is small, but it's growing at a rate of about 8-9%.
Its only a matter of time before smalls becomes big (within next decade)

Economies in China and India are mainly driven by the consumers. Currently the reach is small, which implies there is lot of room for growth. With increasing demand for consumer goods, one can only expect more free cash flow, boosting GDP's and growth rate.

These days supplier's want to be close to the demand (if you look at the growth rate of consumer oriented industries in recent years, you'd know what i am talking about). India & China economies are more resilient to economic downturns in USA (compared to a decade ago) partly thanks to boosting domestic consumption. Upper middle class is on boom and will continue to rise, though the disparity between rich & middle class Vs poor will become more

Yes, the poor infrastructure, widespread corruption are definitely cons, but things are looking brighter with new consumer oriented legislations (RTI act..).

US has been independent for about 200+ yrs, compared to that we are still in our infancy. India has lot of things to learn and we are definitely on the right track.

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 02:47 PM
History has left so many countries in the dustbin who underestimated the US. Simply there is not going to be a doomsday for US or for the green buck. We are talking about all these hoopla because of some good growth in India for the last 10 years and China for the last 20-30 years. But the living standard is nowhere near the US and won’t be there for another couple of decades(India – it will take 100 years due to all these scams and corruption). Even in 1980s there was a prediction the Japanese going to overtake the US economy and never happened.

I don’t see any other country to replace the US due to

1) economic stability 2) Free market 3) Political Stability

EU - Too fragile
China - Not market friendly, authoritarian rule
Japan - Too small
India - Small Economy, Political instability, hostile neighbors.

But we should more worry about Chinese economy and its impact on world economy. Everything in the Chinese economy is manipulated including their currency and the growth rate. One day chicken will come home for roast and that day we are going to see the fire works

I am keepting it short as I am typing this in a hurry...have fun.
/i

snathan
02-22-2011, 03:19 PM
Indian economy is small, but it's growing at a rate of about 8-9%.
Its only a matter of time before smalls becomes big (within next decade)

Economies in China and India are mainly driven by the consumers. Currently the reach is small, which implies there is lot of room for growth. With increasing demand for consumer goods, one can only expect more free cash flow, boosting GDP's and growth rate.

These days supplier's want to be close to the demand (if you look at the growth rate of consumer oriented industries in recent years, you'd know what i am talking about). India & China economies are more resilient to economic downturns in USA (compared to a decade ago) partly thanks to boosting domestic consumption. Upper middle class is on boom and will continue to rise, though the disparity between rich & middle class Vs poor will become more

Yes, the poor infrastructure, widespread corruption are definitely cons, but things are looking brighter with new consumer oriented legislations (RTI act..).

US has been independent for about 200+ yrs, compared to that we are still in our infancy. India has lot of things to learn and we are definitely on the right track.

Indian economy is $ 1.4 trillion and at 10% growth = $140 billion p.a.
US economy is $14 trillion and at 3% = $420 billion p.a.

I am not denying the fact Indian economy is growing. It will take at least 50-100 years to reach the living standard of the US. Corruption is not only a concern and its dreailing our economy. The worrying factor is the common Indians has accepted that as a way of life. 1/3 Indians are very corrupt to the core and 2/3 sitting on the fence. If the economy is growing at 10%, corruption is growing 30%. Last year 54% Indians paid bribe for one reason or another.

In the US, the common man is not getting affected by corruption or very minimal. But in India we all know what the case is.

snathan
02-22-2011, 03:20 PM
I would say that all those who talk about the downslide of USA will be wrong as they were wrong all the times it happened in the past . See history from 1900 to 1980.......
There has been number of times that everyone else in the world started predicting that dollor value is gone and that USA is not going to be the biggest economy in the world but they were proved worng then and they wil be proved wrong now again. So worrying about delay in green card and tying it to the shrinking dollor is not right. Yes there is delay in green card but if and when we get the green card the dollor will still be the leading currency of the world.

Now that i have done pontificating about world history ...

Regarding CTS.. Yes there has been some manipulation of the system just like all what was done by the other big indian consulting companies like TCS, Wipro and others, but there is nothing we can do about it. USCIS is more efficient in auditing and catching these fraud cases and close the loop hole then it was before so we need to leave that in hands of USCIS (Like i said before.. Let them earn their pay)
:):):)

Message from NYPD...

If you see something...say something.

:D

PlainSpeak
02-22-2011, 03:50 PM
Message from NYPD...

If you see something...say something.

:D

Why would i waste time trying to identify specific cases of Indian companies that are manipulating the system with regards to GC. I have my own GC to worry about and that in itself takes up 100 % of my undivided attention
:D

cbpds
02-22-2011, 04:10 PM
This means that folks who are in US because of the dollar factor do not have a reason to stay because the exchange rate is same BUT
1.The value of land or commodities in India is not the same as it was in 2001
2.So typically what u save here is not enough to buy a property etc back in India.
3.The US salaries have been almost the same as it was in 2003
4.Consultants in US have lesser hourly rates than before.

Think it over !!

[QUOTE=vdlrao;2365029]1 USD
(USD = U.S. dollar)
-----------------------------------

22 Feb 2001 46.56 INR 46.5637

21 Feb 2011 44.92 INR 44.9224

snathan
02-22-2011, 04:20 PM
Why would i waste time trying to identify specific cases of Indian companies that are manipulating the system with regards to GC. I have my own GC to worry about and that in itself takes up 100 % of my undivided attention
:D

Do you understand we are in the mess partially because of fradulent people used all the loop holes and got the GC ahead of you (You and me & other genuine people are the losers here). I do know people who bought the labor and now USC. Unfortunately I do not have all the information pertinent to their fraud to call the USCIS.

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 04:23 PM
Indian economy is $ 1.4 trillion and at 10% growth = $140 billion p.a.
US economy is $14 trillion and at 3% = $420 billion p.a.

I am not denying the fact Indian economy is growing. It will take at least 50-100 years to reach the living standard of the US. Corruption is not only a concern and its dreailing our economy. The worrying factor is the common Indians has accepted that as a way of life. 1/3 Indians are very corrupt to the core and 2/3 sitting on the fence. If the economy is growing at 10%, corruption is growing 30%. Last year 54% Indians paid bribe for one reason or another.

In the US, the common man is not getting affected by corruption or very minimal. But in India we all know what the case is.

Corruption is rampant in India because WE feed it.
If we really cared about fixing it, the reform starts with us.

check this out: I PAID A BRIBE (http://www.ipaidabribe.com/)

In another few decades, there won't be any standard of living in US [check external debt: ]List of countries by External Debt (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt)

Also read: http://www.epi.org/page/-/old/Issuebriefs/203/ib203.pdf [current debt/GDP ratio is much worse than projected here]

Leo07
02-22-2011, 04:27 PM
It's our responsibility to watch for fraud and report in time. Unfortunately, CIS/DOL/ICE do not do much even if you report with specifics,due to lack of resources or what ever. But, we still must report fraud, fwiw.

snathan
02-22-2011, 04:37 PM
corruption is rampant in india because we feed it.
If we really cared about fixing it, the reform starts with us.

When you are in rome be a roman. When the commen man accepted it as a way of life...there is no hope.

I wanted to some correction on BC and the RTO was demanding 15k for his signature. I was holding for six months and wanted to complain. Nothing happened and finally gave up because i didnt want to bribe some one to take action on the RTO.

Check this out: i paid a bribe (http://www.ipaidabribe.com/)

in another few decades, there won't be any standard of living in us [check external debt: ]error (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_external_debt)

this is what i was talking about...people are talking about doomsday for US for very long time and lets worry about when it really happens.

The way we are fighting internally and the way govt handling it...it would be happy if india survives.


Also read: http://www.epi.org/page/-/old/issuebriefs/203/ib203.pdf [current debt/gdp ratio is much worse than projected here]

:d

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 04:50 PM
this is what i was talking about...people are talking about doomsday for US for very long time and lets worry about when it really happens.


Obviously we are not talking about doomsday as in meteor hitting earth.

Earlier people weren't talking about it, now people acknowledge and talk about this. so it must be true or is it?? :D (like global warming huh??)

turn on those financial news channels, you'd know what i am talking about.

Perhaps a RTI would have produced better results with RTO, did u consider it??

snathan
02-22-2011, 05:09 PM
Obviously we are not talking about doomsday as in meteor hitting earth.

Earlier people weren't talking about it, now people acknowledge and talk about this. so it must be true or is it?? :D (like global warming huh??)

turn on those financial news channels, you'd know what i am talking about.

Perhaps a RTI would have produced better results with RTO, did u consider it??

I am not sure what I can get out of RTI and dont have any false hope on RTI either. Have you read the news about former CJI Balakrishnan and his family's wealth and about justice Dinakaran from karnadaka High court.

Also people were thinking I am weired when I spoke about complaining. Moreover I am sitting here.

I dont know about China but India has a long way to go

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 05:19 PM
I am not sure what I can get out of RTI and dont have any false hope on RTI either. Have you read the news about former CJI Balakrishnan and his family's wealth and about justice Dinakaran from karnadaka High court.

Also people were thinking I am weired when I spoke about complaining. Moreover I am sitting here.

I dont know about China but India has a long way to go

My father-in-law used RTI to obtain NA of BC from Chennai municipality office. He didnot spend a dime nor take a walk. As per him, it was easy as pie :)

PlainSpeak
02-22-2011, 05:40 PM
Do you understand we are in the mess partially because of fradulent people used all the loop holes and got the GC ahead of you (You and me & other genuine people are the losers here). I do know people who bought the labor and now USC. Unfortunately I do not have all the information pertinent to their fraud to call the USCIS.

Fradulent people have always been there in every system and always will be. In the case of GC yes fraud has occured and that has impacted my case. In my case i do not personally know of some one who bought sub labour but i do know of a whole bunch of my collegues who got applied in EB2 when they were not eligible (All they had was a4 years engg degree in India). That being said ...

I do not have time to waste on trying to notifying USCIS about their cases. I would rather divert that time and energy to something else which will benefit me specifically.

- If some one is crying about labour sub
- some one else is crying about EB2/EB3
- some one else is crying about EB3 porting
- some one else is crying about EB1 eligibility

I would say it is about time people stop crying about spilt milk.
You do not see me cry about spillover rule change which impacts my case directly

:cool::cool::cool:

whereismygclost
02-22-2011, 05:42 PM
Belmontboy and others,
Sorry to bring this discussion back to EB2 predictions guys! Belmontboy I see that ur PD is Oct-07 EB2-I same as mine. What is ur estimate when we will get to file 485 and get EAD. is it 2011,2012 or 2013 spillover season(Jul-Sept)? Appreciate your thoughts.
Thanks

PlainSpeak
02-22-2011, 05:44 PM
It's our responsibility to watch for fraud and report in time. Unfortunately, CIS/DOL/ICE do not do much even if you report with specifics,due to lack of resources or what ever. But, we still must report fraud, fwiw.

As i said before ...
Reporting a fraud with details is like submitting an AC21 packet
- You do not know if they received it
- You do not know if they will work on it
- You do not know if they will impact anything

I rather put energy in something of value and benefit

PlainSpeak
02-22-2011, 05:52 PM
Belmontboy and others,
Sorry to bring this discussion back to EB2 predictions guys! Belmontboy I see that ur PD is Oct-07 EB2-I same as mine. What is ur estimate when we will get to file 485 and get EAD. is it 2011,2012 or 2013 spillover season(Jul-Sept)? Appreciate your thoughts.
Thanks

As long as we are playing the prediction game can someone (senior memeber who crunch numbers) give predictions ofr EB3I. :D

belmontboy
02-22-2011, 05:52 PM
Belmontboy and others,
Sorry to bring this discussion back to EB2 predictions guys! Belmontboy I see that ur PD is Oct-07 EB2-I same as mine. What is ur estimate when we will get to file 485 and get EAD. is it 2011,2012 or 2013 spillover season(Jul-Sept)? Appreciate your thoughts.
Thanks

Personally, I think nothing is going to happen in 2011 for my case.
I think I will get a chance to apply 485 in jul - sep 2012.

PlainSpeak
02-22-2011, 05:55 PM
As long as we are playing the prediction game can someone (senior memeber who crunch numbers) give predictions ofr EB3I. :D

528 to 156 in 3 seconds. That was fasssssssssssssssssssssssssssst

gcwait2007
02-22-2011, 07:17 PM
It's rediculous on CTS to apply 1005 green card petitions for a single year!!!!!!!!!!!. Which takes a big portion of india's allocation. It's about 1005 * 3 = 3000 Green cards. Which is equalent to India's regular allocation.

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx)

Apart from 1005 GC petitions, CTS has also applied as many as 400 EB1C petitions (400X3= 1200 visas).

snathan
02-22-2011, 07:28 PM
Apart from 1005 GC petitions, CTS has also applied as many as 400 EB1C petitions (400X3= 1200 visas).

do you have any source on this...its insane and USCIS should check

Leo07
02-22-2011, 07:48 PM
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-3.html#post2364079
do you have any source on this...its insane and USCIS should check

vdlrao
02-22-2011, 08:46 PM
.


IT services provider Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. has agreed to pay $509,607 in back wages to 67 H-1B workers after an investigation by the U.S. Department of Labor.


Cognizant agrees to pay H-1B workers $500,000 in back wages (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2223634/posts)




.

PlainSpeak
02-23-2011, 10:09 AM
Guys can we come back to predictions. Any predictions for EB3I?

TeddyKoochu
02-23-2011, 10:36 AM
Guys can we come back to predictions. Any predictions for EB3I?

Friends I have been extremely busy over the last few days will start updaing soon. With regards your qustion for EB3-I I believe we will reach 15th Apr - 01-May 2002. for anybody's case where PD is beyond 2002 PD porting is the way to go.

TeddyKoochu
02-23-2011, 11:39 AM
Apart from 1005 GC petitions, CTS has also applied as many as 400 EB1C petitions (400X3= 1200 visas).

If EB1C petitions are applied in that liberal a manner it will cost us dearly. The EB1 cases for india itself was 6K last year so this is almost 20% of that figure. The whole outcome for this year depends on EB1. Theer are a lot of reports that EB1 applications are being scrutinized more thoroughly and EB1 usage on that website is down but its has not been historically reliable for EB1.

PlainSpeak
02-23-2011, 12:00 PM
Friends I have been extremely busy over the last few days will start updaing soon. With regards your qustion for EB3-I I believe we will reach 15th Apr - 01-May 2002. for anybody's case where PD is beyond 2002 PD porting is the way to go.

Thank you TeddyKoochu...
i am not sure everyone who is after 2002 has the ability to port, But atleast people in 2002 might soon have a chance of getting GC this year

TeddyKoochu
02-24-2011, 11:25 AM
Thank you TeddyKoochu...
i am not sure everyone who is after 2002 has the ability to port, But atleast people in 2002 might soon have a chance of getting GC this year

Friends from EB3I till May 2002 have a good chance but after that the number of people in the subsequent months is high it will be 2 more years till the whole of 2002 can be cleared. For those having future PD's if they canno port it is going to be an extremely long wait.

vishwak
02-24-2011, 12:17 PM
Hey gurus, do you think EB-2 India will move atleast few days or weeks a head in next bulletins (April or May) before spillover applies.

How many number of spill overs will apply to Eb2 (Predictions only) please.

snathan
02-24-2011, 01:23 PM
I am not sure an extremely long wait is an appropiate word at this point. If anything else things will get even worse for EB3 because EB3 is the category which is always left holding the bag. Any changes made to immigration policy always effect EB3 the most negetively, after all EB3 is the least preference category and the category which has the least representation so nothing can be done about it.

But thanks all the same for the prediction ... Appreciate it when some one speaks facts instead of wishes ...:)

Whose mistake do you think it is....If I am in the most affected category, I will be the on the forefront to represent myself. I wouldnt argue if the policy is not favoring me I wont take part. But if the policy is favoring me why do I need to represent in the first place...

RamBihari
02-24-2011, 01:48 PM
Fact is that:

1. Fact is that we, the people(I am no exception myself), neither care nor give a damn beyond the priority date that impact us.
2. Fact is that we, the people don't care if sky falls on the earth after individual GC has been approved. Probably we won't even remember password of immigrationvoice account.
3. Fact is that EB-2 applicants don't like EB-1 being preferred by USCIS. We are envious by nature.
4. Fact is that EB-3 applicants don't like EB-2 being preferred by USCIS. We are envious by nature.
5. Fact is that we are all human and would fight among ourselves knowing that we can't do much to change immigration system.
6. Fact is we don't like to donate money, because we are cheap (I am no exception).
7. Fact is that Teddy and other pundits are all wishing that predictions would get around to their own priority dates and ignore the harsh realities.
8. Fact is that immigration system is designed to work for america and not for India. As a matter of fact it is working great and preventing foreign workers from taking american jobs. We can yell saying the USCIS is broken but it is not, its making money and is doing its job for last 100 years or so.
9. Fact is that we will all get GC sooner or later. Some of us would wait for it desperately and some of us would take it easy and let things run at its own pace. We can try, beyond certain point things would run their own course.
10. Fact is that I am going to get lot of reds because of stating the facts.





Whose mistake do you think it is....If I am in the most affected category, I will be the on the forefront to represent myself. I wouldnt argue if the policy is not favoring me I wont take part. But if the policy is favoring me why do I need to represent in the first place...

PlainSpeak
02-24-2011, 01:54 PM
Fact is that:

1. Fact is that we, the people(I am no exception myself), neither care nor give a damn beyond the priority date that impact us.
2. Fact is that we, the people don't care if sky falls on the earth after individual GC has been approved. Probably we won't even remember password of immigrationvoice account.
3. Fact is that EB-2 applicants don't like EB-1 being preferred by USCIS. We are envious by nature.
4. Fact is that EB-3 applicants don't like EB-2 being preferred by USCIS. We are envious by nature.
5. Fact is that we are all human and would fight among ourselves knowing that we can't do much to change immigration system.
6. Fact is we don't like to donate money, because we are cheap (I am no exception).
7. Fact is that Teddy and other pundits are all wishing that predictions would get around to their own priority dates and ignore the harsh realities.
8. Fact is that immigration system is designed to work for america and not for India. As a matter of fact it is working great and preventing foreign workers from taking american jobs. We can yell saying the USCIS is broken but it is not, its making money and is doing its job for last 100 years or so.
9. Fact is that we will all get GC sooner or later. Some of us would wait for it desperately and some of us would take it easy and let things run at its own pace. We can try, beyond certain point things would run their own course.
10. Fact is that I am going to get lot of reds because of stating the facts.


Ram Bihari i give you a green :D

pbuckeye
02-24-2011, 03:45 PM
I myself am in the most effected category which gets abused during every new change in the law or every new relief effort. The more advocacy is done by highly skilled legal immigrants the more the EB3 gets impacted negetively (Maybe its because EB3 is skilled category and not highly skilled category).

The bottom line is to be in a forefront of any movement i need to believe that the movement represents me also (By that i mean represent me along with all other legal immigrants).

Fair enough.

How about doing this - Pick an issue that you think will positively impact all categories, including yours. Then either take initiative in lobbying for that issue or if you don't want to lead, find such an initiative in progress and join them. If you think, there is nothing that fits the bill, then the only solution is for you to come up with one.

Now, if you don't want to do any of this, its your choice. But then, I am not sure if there would be anything left to complain about.

Additionally, can we please stick to prediction discussion in this thread.

dummgelauft
02-24-2011, 04:11 PM
Fact is that:

1. Fact is that we, the people(I am no exception myself), neither care nor give a damn beyond the priority date that impact us.
2. Fact is that we, the people don't care if sky falls on the earth after individual GC has been approved. Probably we won't even remember password of immigrationvoice account.
3. Fact is that EB-2 applicants don't like EB-1 being preferred by USCIS. We are envious by nature.
4. Fact is that EB-3 applicants don't like EB-2 being preferred by USCIS. We are envious by nature.
5. Fact is that we are all human and would fight among ourselves knowing that we can't do much to change immigration system.
6. Fact is we don't like to donate money, because we are cheap (I am no exception).
7. Fact is that Teddy and other pundits are all wishing that predictions would get around to their own priority dates and ignore the harsh realities.
8. Fact is that immigration system is designed to work for america and not for India. As a matter of fact it is working great and preventing foreign workers from taking american jobs. We can yell saying the USCIS is broken but it is not, its making money and is doing its job for last 100 years or so.
9. Fact is that we will all get GC sooner or later. Some of us would wait for it desperately and some of us would take it easy and let things run at its own pace. We can try, beyond certain point things would run their own course.
10. Fact is that I am going to get lot of reds because of stating the facts.


Good post.

pbuckeye
02-24-2011, 05:02 PM
Any idea which benefits all category will end up getting used by EB2 (now that the economy is picking up and filing in EB2 is the way to go) and nothing or a few visas will trickl down to EBROW which will consume it and EB3 I wil be left with nothing. So i have not shot it down but on contrary the idea has shot down itself

OK, so if you think any of these ideas would not help your category, then which idea were you talking about that was not entertained by IV?

Let me go back to my earlier post again - is there an existing idea that you like? If not, do you have an idea?

If the answer to the above two points is NO or cannot be given, what exactly are you complaining about again?

pbuckeye
02-24-2011, 05:24 PM
The only thing is - IV should give up everything but fight to fix only EB3 as she belongs to that. Nothing else is important and would convince her.

I am not trying to convince him/her.

I just want him/her to state his/her exact concern and how its related to IV by answering those two points.

If he/she can't or won't do it, then nobody needs to be convinced of anything and we can all move on to advocacy/prediction discussion :rolleyes:

TeddyKoochu
02-24-2011, 05:48 PM
Which idea (that benefits all categories) are we talking about that IV isn't entertaining?

I would have suggested "recapture" and "not counting dependents" as ideas that will benefit all categories but I saw you already shot down those in another thread.

If there is some other idea, please let everybody know.

This idea "not counting dependents" was discussed several months back and we had calculated by this that everybody irrespective of country / category would get their GC in 2 Years. By this the cap effectively becomes 2.5 times and then you can imagine the kind of spillover that will happen. Recapture again is dependent on how much if its 300K then its great but something like 50K even though its great is just like applying band aid it does not address the core issue that there are simply too many people waiting for GC.

Friends I would request you all to respect free speech and respect each other. Also a humble request if we can restrict this thread to predictions and calculations.

sys_manus
02-24-2011, 05:50 PM
The discussion has no relation to the title of the thread.

Polite request: Please open a new thread

snathan
02-24-2011, 05:54 PM
I did start a new thread a month back and the reaction was the same, infact even worse. You remember .............

Which one...the changing spill over rules?

If you want to fix something, it should benefit most of the people and not taking from one group and give it to another. You are just trying to move the bottle neck.

The spillover was a law which was misinterpreted by USCIS/DOS. You want to spend lot of energy to change that. So the bottle neck can be moved from EB3 -> EB2. But its not the real fix.

Why don’t we spend that energy to remove country cap and visa recapture?

PlainSpeak
02-24-2011, 05:54 PM
This idea "not counting dependents" was discussed several months back and we had calculated by this that everybody irrespective of country / category would get their GC in 2 Years. By this the cap effectively becomes 2.5 times and then you can imagine the kind of spillover that will happen. Recapture again is dependent on how much if its 300K then its great but something like 50K even though its great is just like applying band aid it does not address the core issue that there are simply too many people waiting for GC.

Friends I would request you all to respect free speech and respect each other. Also a humble request if we can restrict this thread to predictions and calculations.

Ok you got it

Handing the thread back to Teddy :D

PlainSpeak
02-24-2011, 05:55 PM
Which one...the changing spill over rules?

If you want to fix something, it should benefit most of the people and not taking from one group and give it to another. You are just trying to move the bottle neck.

The spillover was a law which was misinterpreted by USCIS/DOS. You want to spend lot of energy to change that. So the bottle neck can be moved from EB3 -> EB2. But its not the real fix.

Why don’t we spend that energy to remove country cap and visa recapture?

No more discussion except prediction :mad::mad::mad:

:D

snathan
02-24-2011, 05:57 PM
So you are saying that EB3 is low skilled EB3 is low skilled and only low skilled people are in back log ??????????????????? :confused::confused::confused:
So you agree that there is a low skilled and a high skilled categorization here in IV too ??

If no then why does the advocacy say that this is a fight for high skilled immigrants? Does that mean the advocacy is only for high skilled immigrants (EB2) and not for low skilled immigrants (EB3)?

Are you trying to twist or don’t understand what I was saying. Do you know the meaning of anti immigrants?

My bad...I didn’t realize you are so naive. No more arguments. Happy living in you illusory world

I wish I had your kind of life.

PS: May be go to sleep as you are working all night and tired of fighting all day. Lets give this thread back to people are doing the calculations. You create another thread for fighting and amusement. We can go from there

pbuckeye
02-24-2011, 05:57 PM
Which one...the changing spill over rules?

If you want to fix something, it should benefit most of the people and not taking from one group and give it to another. You are just trying to move the bottle neck.

The spillover was a law which was misinterpreted by USCIS/DOS. You want to spend lot of energy to change that. So the bottle neck can be moved from EB3 -> EB2. But its not the real fix.

Why don’t we spend that energy to remove country cap and visa recapture?

I thought we were done with this discussion. No issue, no convincing.

Teddy - is there a way for you to take this thread back?

P.S. would probably be a good idea to cleanse all this negative energy (aka delete irrelevant posts) from this thread.

pappu
02-24-2011, 09:54 PM
Please do not post unrelated posts on this thread and help keep this thread clean. Focus on the purpose of this thread. If you want to discuss something else, open a new thread and discuss there. All unrelated posts will be deleted. If someone still does not listen, we will have to ban that user.

Teddy you can post such warning on your first post so that this thread stays clean.

Michael chertoff
02-24-2011, 10:43 PM
Hi Teddy,

what do you think about April bulletin...any movement for EB2?

Thanks

MC

belmontboy
02-24-2011, 10:47 PM
Hi Teddy,

what do you think about April bulletin...any movement for EB2?

Thanks

MC

for EB2I, it would be copy paste of NOV 2010 VB bulletin :)

Chances of any EB2I movement before june VB is zero!!!

Michael chertoff
02-24-2011, 10:49 PM
for EB2I, it would be copy paste of NOV 2010 VB bulletin :)

Chances of any EB2I movement before june VB is zero!!!

Why they can not copy March Visa Bulletin, is there something special in NOV 2010. just curious to know.

belmontboy
02-24-2011, 10:51 PM
Why they can not copy March Visa Bulletin, is there something special in NOV 2010. just curious to know.

w.r.t EB2I, dec, jan, feb, march VBs are copy paste of nov 2010 VB bulletin

Michael chertoff
02-24-2011, 11:04 PM
w.r.t EB2I, dec, jan, feb, march VBs are copy paste of nov 2010 VB bulletin

you are a smart man.

indigo10
02-24-2011, 11:45 PM
for EB2I, it would be copy paste of NOV 2010 VB bulletin :)

Chances of any EB2I movement before june VB is zero!!!

You meant July VB right ?

TeddyKoochu
02-25-2011, 10:26 AM
Please do not post unrelated posts on this thread and help keep this thread clean. Focus on the purpose of this thread. If you want to discuss something else, open a new thread and discuss there. All unrelated posts will be deleted. If someone still does not listen, we will have to ban that user.

Teddy you can post such warning on your first post so that this thread stays clean.

Pappu thanks for the moderation, I have updated the first post.

TeddyKoochu
02-25-2011, 10:29 AM
w.r.t EB2I, dec, jan, feb, march VBs are copy paste of nov 2010 VB bulletin

Friends for EB2-I movement may only start in the July bulletin because PD Porting and PWMB far exceed the 250 PM monthly allocation. Friends chill we are not far from that. I can feel the pain of those who had a close miss its just sheer unlucky.

gcwait2007
02-25-2011, 11:26 AM
In order to calculate the EB2 ROW spillover to EB2 IC, I would like to know the I-140 approvals during Q1 and Jan and Feb 2011.

Does any one have this data? Can you please share the same with the forum? Thanks.

TeddyKoochu
02-25-2011, 11:56 AM
In order to calculate the EB2 ROW spillover to EB2 IC, I would like to know the I-140 approvals during Q1 and Jan and Feb 2011.

Does any one have this data? Can you please share the same with the forum? Thanks.

The only good source for this is the USCIS dashboard - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/).
Its currently refreshed till Dec 2010 only.

gcwait2007
02-25-2011, 01:25 PM
The only good source for this is the USCIS dashboard - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/).
Its currently refreshed till Dec 2010 only.

Thanks. I am unable to get country wise I-140 approvals. The over all present trend looks as follows:

Month 2010 2011
Oct 6149 5497
Nov 5658 5386
Dec 5604 5833
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

The above data shows that we can expect spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2IC similar to last year, based on the 1st Q trend. Caution is that there are many pending I-140 applications. I am not sure how many of them belongs to EB2 ROW.

belmontboy
02-25-2011, 02:20 PM
you are a smart man.

yeah that's what the stoopid one's say about me

ajayraj
02-25-2011, 02:30 PM
Hello All,
I got my EAD last year and it is valid until Sept 2012. I have not yet used it and am still on H1B on the 7th year extension.my priority date is Jan 2007. 140 and 485 applied in Jul 2007 EB2 category. 140 got approved in Nov 2008. Got married in May 2009, which means i still have not yet been in a position to apply for my wife's 485/EAD/AP.
We are having a lot of issues with the jobs on H1B and I am thinking of using my EAD to get perm job. If that is to happen and my wife is out of status, she would have to leave the country. Would it be possible to apply her 485/ EAD when she is out of the country? what are the other issues that i may have when my dates might get current sometime next year?
Please any advice on this situation is appreciated.

Thanks

redsox2009
02-25-2011, 02:40 PM
My estimation is there will be atleast 25K+ visa's roll over. This is based on previous years roll overs and this year perm data.

For First Quarter of the year 2011.........

So far 18355 perm's were certified worldwide, 9299 for India and 1004 for china.

Lets us assume for oct, nov and dec there are 300 Indian perms for porting, remaining 8399 perms and 250 perms for E1B category, remaining 7649

Now we have to consider 1650(900+750) perm's issued.
Similarly for china lets assume there are 250 perm's issued for EB1 and porting.

For rest of world 8052 perm's were issued. Out of 8052 only 5252 visa's have chance of qualifying in EB1 or EB2, there is a chance of some of these might be EB3.

So based on above numbers total number of visa's granted were (1650+250+5252)*3=21456

So by July there will be 25K visa's available, also consider the fact that perm applications has slowed down.

Also last year for 2010, 32657 perm's were certified and most of these perms' are from 2009 & 2008, even though they are applied in 2008, 2009, perms are certified in 2010 and took the chunk of the visa numbers. 13094 visa were certified to rest of world, 17785 certified to India and 1778 to China.

Hope I made some sense.....................

Source for this data is from Labor dept site,
Foreign Labor Certification Disclosure File List (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm)

snathan
02-25-2011, 02:45 PM
My estimation is there will be atleast 25K+ visa's roll over. This is based on previous years roll overs and this year perm data.

For First Quarter of the year 2011.........

So far 18355 perm's were certified worldwide, 9299 for India and 1004 for china.

Lets us assume for oct, nov and dec there are 300 Indian perms for porting, remaining 8399 perms and 250 perms for E1B category, remaining 7649

Now we have to consider 1650(900+750) perm's issued.
Similarly for china lets assume there are 250 perm's issued for EB1 and porting.

For rest of world 8052 perm's were issued. Out of 8052 only 5252 visa's have chance of qualifying in EB1 or EB2, there is a chance of some of these might be EB3.

So based on above numbers total number of visa's granted were (1650+250+5252)*3=21456

So by July there will be 25K visa's available, also consider the fact that perm applications has slowed down.

Also last year for 2010, 32657 perm's were certified and most of these perms' are from 2009 & 2008, even though they are applied in 2008, 2009, perms are certified in 2010 and took the chunk of the visa numbers. 13094 visa were certified to rest of world, 17785 certified to India and 1778 to China.

Hope I made some sense.....................

Source for this data is from Labor dept site,
Foreign Labor Certification Disclosure File List (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm)

We dont need to bother about the number of PERM certified for China & India because PD is not current. We need to consider only the EB2 ROW PERM as others can not file for I-485 this year until the date moves.

snathan
02-25-2011, 02:47 PM
.

ajayraj
02-25-2011, 02:51 PM
Hello Snathan,
I was able to apply for my EAD as my 140 was already approved and 485 filed in. I applied it online and got the FP request that was done in VA.

Thanks

ajayraj
02-25-2011, 02:51 PM
Hello Snathan,
I was able to apply for my EAD as my 140 was already approved and 485 filed in. I applied it online and got the FP request that was done in VA.

Thanks

jetflyer
02-25-2011, 03:16 PM
yeah that's what the stoopid one's say about me


what about smartones, they still think that you are an IDIOT?. BTW please check the spelling of Stupid. you smart one.

NELLAIKUMAR
02-25-2011, 03:20 PM
what about smartones, they still think that you are an IDIOT?. BTW please check the spelling of Stupid. you smart one.

What's wrong with you guys. Please take your fight somewhere else and leave this thread for meaningful discussion and prediction.

NELLAIKUMAR
02-25-2011, 03:21 PM
Duplicate.

belmontboy
02-25-2011, 03:34 PM
what about smartones, they still think that you are an IDIOT?. BTW please check the spelling of Stupid. you smart one.

Here comes one more.

check this out kiddo Urban Dictionary: stoopid (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=stoopid)

Don't pick a fight if you don't have ammo. If you were a smart one you'd know that :D

gcwait2007
02-25-2011, 04:13 PM
My estimation is there will be atleast 25K+ visa's roll over. This is based on previous years roll overs and this year perm data.



Thank you for boosting the confidence and morale :)

gcwait2007
02-25-2011, 04:19 PM
Friends for EB2-I movement may only start in the July bulletin because PD Porting and PWMB far exceed the 250 PM monthly allocation. Friends chill we are not far from that. I can feel the pain of those who had a close miss its just sheer unlucky.

Incidentally, I happen to speak to Ron Gotcher's office today and I asked him what has been going on these days in USCIS. According to his team, the EB3 to EB2 porting in all categories (not only India) is going on in a big way. Otherwise, there is not much filing happening.

snathan
02-25-2011, 04:54 PM
Incidentally, I happen to speak to Ron Gotcher's office today and I asked him what has been going on these days in USCIS. According to his team, the EB3 to EB2 porting in all categories (not only India) is going on in a big way. Otherwise, there is not much filing happening.

Any idea how big it is...

PlainSpeak
02-25-2011, 05:01 PM
It started as a trickle and even he had estimated that the the hump might been crossed but the trickle turned into a flood during the last 3 months. Well not actually a flood but porting is continuing currently and has not waned down as expected. It could go either ways

belmontboy
02-25-2011, 05:02 PM
Any idea how big it is...

It's atleast 300 per month (EB2I monthly allocation). That's the main reason for EB2I dates not moving forward.

Now we have to consider EB3 ROW porting to EB2 ROW (which was left out in the prediction threads), this can only mean less spillover's come year end!!!

this sucks!!!!

I remember sometime back USCIS was talking about allowing post july 2007 folks file 485's for pre-adjudication. Does anybody remember what happened to that??

PlainSpeak
02-25-2011, 05:05 PM
It's atleast 300 per month (EB2I monthly allocation). That's the main reason for EB2I dates not moving forward.

Now we have to consider EB3 ROW porting to EB2 ROW (which was left out in the prediction threads), this can only mean less spillover's come year end!!!

this sucks!!!!

My personal opinion is that EB3I port to EB2I is not much of an issue. The thing which could impact spillover drastically is EB3ROW porting to EB2ROW.

axp817
02-25-2011, 06:19 PM
Friends for EB2-I movement may only start in the July bulletin because PD Porting and PWMB far exceed the 250 PM monthly allocation. Friends chill we are not far from that. I can feel the pain of those who had a close miss its just sheer unlucky.

TK,
Is the worst case prediction for EB2-I still what's showing on post#1 - 01 Jan 2007?

I'm June 7 2006, and I really hope the next 4 months are all I need to get through.

snathan
02-25-2011, 07:05 PM
It's atleast 300 per month (EB2I monthly allocation). That's the main reason for EB2I dates not moving forward.

Now we have to consider EB3 ROW porting to EB2 ROW (which was left out in the prediction threads), this can only mean less spillover's come year end!!!

this sucks!!!!

I remember sometime back USCIS was talking about allowing post july 2007 folks file 485's for pre-adjudication. Does anybody remember what happened to that??

Are you not aware of the fileing I-485 when PD is not current intiative?

gcwait2007
02-26-2011, 06:15 PM
Any idea how big it is...

It is greater than monthly allocation of visas for EB2 India; for other countries there are portings but not as big as India EB3 to EB2.

Ron's team said they are keeping their fingers crossed and waiting for summer..

Michael chertoff
02-26-2011, 06:31 PM
It is greater than monthly allocation of visas for EB2 India; for other countries there are portings but not as big as India EB3 to EB2.

Ron's team said they are keeping their fingers crossed and waiting for summer..

thats why i said.. that should be one of the agendas in DC Rally. ban on EB3 to EB2 porting. they should go back into the line, and should not be allowed to jump ahead of others.

welcome reds.

mc

reddymjm
02-26-2011, 06:53 PM
Dismiss All EB3 Cases and let them refile. Remove EB3 category. More money for USCIS.

sathishav
02-26-2011, 07:13 PM
thats why i said.. that should be one of the agendas in DC Rally. ban on EB3 to EB2 porting. they should go back into the line, and should not be allowed to jump ahead of others.

welcome reds.

mc

I am not planning to port, but I don't agree with you. "We are all in this together" is the mantra everyone is saying. Let's not fight within us. All Legal, Hard Working immigrants need to be greened. Greened soon/

Michael chertoff
02-26-2011, 07:36 PM
I am not planning to port, but I don't agree with you. "We are all in this together" is the mantra everyone is saying. Let's not fight within us. All Legal, Hard Working immigrants need to be greened. Greened soon/

Dear sathishav,

I also agree with your mantra "We are all in this together" . I am not against porting either.

my point is when they applied for GC first time, they should have filed for the EB2 or whatever category fits them. now when they have created backlog there they want to change lanes. Its OK but go back to the new line. it is unfair with the people who are already standing in line that some one come in front of them beacuse of there own mistake.

anyways, i hope we all will get over with this ASAP, only EB3 friends are adding some extra pain in this.

MC

sunny1000
02-26-2011, 08:59 PM
Dear sathishav,

I also agree with your mantra "We are all in this together" . I am not against porting either.

my point is when they applied for GC first time, they should have filed for the EB2 or whatever category fits them. now when they have created backlog there they want to change lanes. Its OK but go back to the new line. it is unfair with the people who are already standing in line that some one come in front of them beacuse of there own mistake.

anyways, i hope we all will get over with this ASAP, only EB3 friends are adding some extra pain in this.

MC

MC,

Let's keep this thread clean. There are already a lot of posts here that are not related to the original intention of this thread. If you want to campaign against porting, please start a new thread.

thanks.

reddymjm
02-26-2011, 09:12 PM
Dear sathishav,

I also agree with your mantra "We are all in this together" . I am not against porting either.

my point is when they applied for GC first time, they should have filed for the EB2 or whatever category fits them. now when they have created backlog there they want to change lanes. Its OK but go back to the new line. it is unfair with the people who are already standing in line that some one come in front of them beacuse of there own mistake.

anyways, i hope we all will get over with this ASAP, only EB3 friends are adding some extra pain in this.

MC
If the flood gates weren't open in July 2007 this would not have been the case for EB3 and this was never the case with only EB3.
Anyways I am not porting. I was being sarcastic.

Also I do not see any reason why it is unfair for EB3 to port to EB2. EB2 are also free to port to EB1.

sathishav
02-26-2011, 09:32 PM
Dear sathishav,

I also agree with your mantra "We are all in this together" . I am not against porting either.

my point is when they applied for GC first time, they should have filed for the EB2 or whatever category fits them. now when they have created backlog there they want to change lanes. Its OK but go back to the new line. it is unfair with the people who are already standing in line that some one come in front of them beacuse of there own mistake.

anyways, i hope we all will get over with this ASAP, only EB3 friends are adding some extra pain in this.

MC

I have a friend of mine, who was with one of the "Top 5" Indian companies. He is a MCA with about 8 years of experience!!. the attorney along with the company filed his petition in EB3. He is NOT porting either. But, I feel its so unfair. As so many people have said, some companies/attorneys chose to file in EB3 just because its "easy".

PS: This will be my last reply for eb2/eb3 porting. I'll leave this thread exclusively for Teddy for his calculations.

vdlrao
02-27-2011, 04:54 AM
WASHINTON: An American employee of Infosys has filed a case against the company accusing it of visa and tax fraud.


Court case against Infosys accuses it of visa and tax fraud - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/court-case-against-infosys-accuses-it-of-visa-and-tax-fraud/articleshow/7580456.cms)

Infosys booked for visa and tax fraud - Bangalore - DNA (http://www.dnaindia.com/bangalore/report_infosys-booked-for-visa-and-tax-fraud_1513178)


Theres no guarentee that these companies don't do fraud in GC process. Especially filing more than 1000 GC applications(Labour filings) in EB2 and EB3 (Don't know homany filed in EB1) by Cognizant in 2010 itself, even when the US economy didn't recover completely?

http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/Green-Card-Top-2011.aspx

.

dummgelauft
02-27-2011, 11:38 AM
It is greater than monthly allocation of visas for EB2 India; for other countries there are portings but not as big as India EB3 to EB2.

Ron's team said they are keeping their fingers crossed and waiting for summer..

I am not sure how this works, but should EB2-I not become "U", in the visa bulletins after October 2010, if what you have said were true?

Michael chertoff
02-27-2011, 12:42 PM
I am not sure how this works, but should EB2-I not become "U", in the visa bulletins after October 2010, if what you have said were true?

I wont be surprised. you know the reason why.

TeddyKoochu
02-27-2011, 04:12 PM
TK,
Is the worst case prediction for EB2-I still what's showing on post#1 - 01 Jan 2007?

I'm June 7 2006, and I really hope the next 4 months are all I need to get through.

Yes that’s the worst case. I hope you get your GC in Jul 2011.

TeddyKoochu
02-27-2011, 04:16 PM
It's atleast 300 per month (EB2I monthly allocation). That's the main reason for EB2I dates not moving forward.

Now we have to consider EB3 ROW porting to EB2 ROW (which was left out in the prediction threads), this can only mean less spillover's come year end!!!

this sucks!!!!

I remember sometime back USCIS was talking about allowing post july 2007 folks file 485's for pre-adjudication. Does anybody remember what happened to that??

Your are absolutely correct the PD porting + PWMB is 250 PM or more. They won't make it 'U' or retrogress the date will stay like that till Jul. Regarding the pre-filing thing that concept never really took off.

axp817
02-27-2011, 04:59 PM
Yes that’s the worst case. I hope you get your GC in Jul 2011.

Thanks!

krishmunn
02-28-2011, 09:55 AM
Teddy, what is the Worst case for EB2-I, PD=March 2008 ? Is it July 2013 or beyond ? I believe the best case is July 2012

GC_ASP
02-28-2011, 10:37 AM
Did you guys look at this?

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

imh1b
02-28-2011, 11:40 AM
Did you guys look at this?

USCIS - Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

What about EB1C, EB2 NIW, EB2, EB3?
Can you post this information too

PlainSpeak
02-28-2011, 11:43 AM
If EB2 gets spillover in the last quarter (July 2011 VB) good for them. What i am worried about is that will EB3 and EB2 get their full quota which they are supposed to get in the first place ?

Are there any numbers out there which states how may EB3 and EB2 visas have been issued till now and how many unused visas are still available out of the origional quota. I don't know about EB2 but in EB3 i think that a few thousand of the application pending in the line that are no longer valid (Applicant has abandoned their application or has ported). Now since we do not know the count of invalid application (as defined above) and since i am sure that USCIS also does not have any estimation of this number i do not think the number will be reflected in the last quarter of this year but we should get a approx count on start of next year quota (Oct2011 VB), or when USCIS releases the pending count.

Any expert comments on the above !!!

gcwait2007
02-28-2011, 03:11 PM
I am not sure how this works, but should EB2-I not become "U", in the visa bulletins after October 2010, if what you have said were true?

New Visas are available from Oct 2010.

GC_ASP
02-28-2011, 08:53 PM
What about EB1C, EB2 NIW, EB2, EB3?
Can you post this information too

This information has not been posted yet.

TeddyKoochu
02-28-2011, 09:20 PM
Teddy, what is the Worst case for EB2-I, PD=March 2008 ? Is it July 2013 or beyond ? I believe the best case is July 2012
Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009

This is a very rough estimate assuming 30K SOFAD every year which in itself is a huge assumption. 2007 has very heavy traffic and the density is very light starting mid 2008. I feel 2012 seems to be a very optimistic scenario for your case 2013 is both the conservative and worst case of what we can think now. However think about this in 2009 the SOFAD was only 10K if we were to go back to those levels by any chance like EB2 ROW filing increasing etc it would be disastrous. For now we should just focus year by year anything beyond that is very hard to predict. I hope we are all out of this mess with our GC's soon. Please don't take table to heart its out of my gut feeling but maybe lets all start debating this because when once can hope to get GC is very important to every one of us.

Try this formula EB2-I

Best Case - PD + 4 Years (If this date falls before Sep)
Worst Case - PD + 5 Years.

Just a thought about our friends whose PD is in May 2006 and not current it must be a really sad.
I don't know if it makes people feel happy this year only 6 more months to go so think like 6 months, 18 months 30 months ...

PlainSpeak
03-01-2011, 10:25 AM
Go EB2I go !!!Go EB2I go !!!Go EB2I go !!!Go EB2I go !!!
Because only if EB2I gets current will EB3 ROW get the spillover

Go EB3ROW go !!!Go EB3ROW go !!!Go EB3ROW go !!!
Because only if EBROW gets current will EB3 I get the spillover

Goodintentions
03-01-2011, 08:05 PM
Dear All,

While we are really thankful to all the Pundits who spend their valuable time and energy to work on the number game, we should all realize one basic fact which will affect all of us :

Both EB2 and EB3 will very soon (may be 1 or 2 years) get totally jammed. This is not very difficult to realize this bitter truth.

This can be attributed to :

1. Very high porting India / ROW (which is legal and I have nothing against it. No offense please)
2. Increased ROW filing under EB2 category
3. Increased EB1 filing by Indian IT companies (Programmers and many with basic degrees who would only qualify for EB3 or at the most EB2)

It is hence a matter of time, when lightning will strike both EB2 and EB3. It is high time that all of us understand this basic mathematics and start working together. Contributing and attending the advocacy is a step in the right direction.

Note:

During one of my recent visits to the Congressman's office I was told that INS is now aware of the fraudulent EB1 filing by Indian IT companies. This process is being scrutinized more carefully, now. Infact, I was told that several letters have been received in the Congressman's office about this. The Congressman's office have also contacted the INS and spoken them about this. The Immigration aide also told me that to impose stricter scrutiny and punitive action, people like us, must flood the offices of the law makers' office with thousands of letters, exposing this fraud. Nothing has a better impact than signed letters sent by post (not Email). I once again plead with all members to meet law makers and send several thousand letters on this. Spending 45 mins on a letter (typing, printing, posting etc) may save 5 years of wait! Please think it over!!!

GOD bless the EB Community!

gcwait2007
03-02-2011, 02:42 PM
Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009

This is a very rough estimate assuming 30K SOFAD every year which in itself is a huge assumption. 2007 has very heavy traffic and the density is very light starting mid 2008. I feel 2012 seems to be a very optimistic scenario for your case 2013 is both the conservative and worst case of what we can think now. However think about this in 2009 the SOFAD was only 10K if we were to go back to those levels by any chance like EB2 ROW filing increasing etc it would be disastrous. For now we should just focus year by year anything beyond that is very hard to predict. I hope we are all out of this mess with our GC's soon. Please don't take table to heart its out of my gut feeling but maybe lets all start debating this because when once can hope to get GC is very important to every one of us.

Try this formula EB2-I

Best Case - PD + 4 Years (If this date falls before Sep)
Worst Case - PD + 5 Years.

Just a thought about our friends whose PD is in May 2006 and not current it must be a really sad.
I don't know if it makes people feel happy this year only 6 more months to go so think like 6 months, 18 months 30 months ...

Amen :)

Let your words come true for Sep 2011.

goel_ar
03-02-2011, 03:03 PM
Is there a chance that EB2/Mar 2008 will become current before Jul 2012 - so that I-485 could be filed & is pre-adjudicated by july 2012 - when visa number actually becomes available. Otherwise - won't visas be wasted as there won't be enough approved applications?

Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009

This is a very rough estimate assuming 30K SOFAD every year which in itself is a huge assumption. 2007 has very heavy traffic and the density is very light starting mid 2008. I feel 2012 seems to be a very optimistic scenario for your case 2013 is both the conservative and worst case of what we can think now. However think about this in 2009 the SOFAD was only 10K if we were to go back to those levels by any chance like EB2 ROW filing increasing etc it would be disastrous. For now we should just focus year by year anything beyond that is very hard to predict. I hope we are all out of this mess with our GC's soon. Please don't take table to heart its out of my gut feeling but maybe lets all start debating this because when once can hope to get GC is very important to every one of us.

Try this formula EB2-I

Best Case - PD + 4 Years (If this date falls before Sep)
Worst Case - PD + 5 Years.

Just a thought about our friends whose PD is in May 2006 and not current it must be a really sad.
I don't know if it makes people feel happy this year only 6 more months to go so think like 6 months, 18 months 30 months ...

new2gc
03-02-2011, 03:20 PM
Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009

.

Oh Boy!!! I just lost another year in waiting!!! :-(

TeddyKoochu
03-02-2011, 03:27 PM
Friends don't take the prediction chart for the next 3 years that I have outlined to heart I feel in ball park approximation it will hold however there maybe a swing here or there by a month to two. However we do not have enough inputs on how to predict that far. However lets certainly debate on this both qualitatively annd quantitaively. I will revise the first post soon baed on the Feb figures. Our predictions are like weather predictions they will l keep changing based on the inputs available and our understanding which keeps getting refined.

pbuckeye
03-02-2011, 03:43 PM
Is there a chance that EB2/Mar 2008 will become current before Jul 2012 - so that I-485 could be filed & is pre-adjudicated by july 2012 - when visa number actually becomes available. Otherwise - won't visas be wasted as there won't be enough approved applications?

That's a good point. They got to have at least the same number of pending EB2 I/C cases as the anticipated spillover before every July. So, to approve Jan2008 in July 2012, they have to have cases with that PD with them already. But all this depends on when the dates cross July 2007, since they already know the demand data up to that date.

Paisano
03-02-2011, 04:16 PM
.

pbuckeye
03-02-2011, 04:39 PM
.... are eligible for spillover visas in the absence of EB-2 I/C pending applications.


And what is the source of this?

The way I understand the process is this - any application that has a PD after the published cut-off date for its category cannot be approved (whether its pre-adjudicated or not).

snathan
03-02-2011, 04:42 PM
goel_ar, pbuckeye and anybody else who are living in the disneyland of thinking only EB2-I will/shall get the spill over visa - there are atleast 128,875 EB3 applicatants, as of Feb 09 2011, whose applications are most probably pre-adjudicated and waiting for a visa number are eligible for spillover visas in the absence of EB-2 I/C pending applications.

For full disclosure, I am an EB-2 I from Nov 2007 and waiting to file 485. I fear I may not get the chance to file my AOS even by Oct 2013. Sorry for raining on your little parade here.

Either they will have to move the date for EB2I/C or the visa numbers will be wasted...they can not allocate that number to EB3I or ROW beyond the cut off date...

snathan
03-02-2011, 04:43 PM
goel_ar, pbuckeye and anybody else who are living in the disneyland of thinking only EB2-I will/shall get the spill over visa - there are atleast 128,875 EB3 applicatants, as of Feb 09 2011, whose applications are most probably pre-adjudicated and waiting for a visa number are eligible for spillover visas in the absence of EB-2 I/C pending applications.

For full disclosure, I am an EB-2 I from Nov 2007 and waiting to file 485. I fear I may not get the chance to file my AOS even by Oct 2013. Sorry for raining on your little parade here.

What do you mean by that...isnt that cut off date.?

pappu
03-02-2011, 05:10 PM
goel_ar, pbuckeye and anybody else who are living in the disneyland of thinking only EB2-I will/shall get the spill over visa - there are atleast 128,875 EB3 applicatants, as of Feb 09 2011, whose applications are most probably pre-adjudicated and waiting for a visa number are eligible for spillover visas in the absence of EB-2 I/C pending applications.

For full disclosure, I am an EB-2 I from Nov 2007 and waiting to file 485. I fear I may not get the chance to file my AOS even by Oct 2013. Sorry for raining on your little parade here.

EB2 is still pretty good compared to EB3. However even if the wait time for EB2 is 3-4 years, it is still unacceptable. We all should not have to wait more than 12 months to get Greencards. The only unfortunate option for EB3 is porting in the absence of any law change. Both EB2 and EB3 should not be accepting their status quo when we can all do a successful large scale advocacy effort for a law change. Our strength is in numbers and if there is a big effort, there is no reason why Congress will ignore us. Recently I met someone who has been here for 7 years, did US masters and he asked me if he should file in EB2 India or EB3 India. I asked him to see if his employer can file in EB2. It just shows how ignorant a lot of people are about the immigration process and huge backlogs.
I suggest everyone come to the advocacy day next month to DC and see for yourself how you can help in making this change happen. Nothing can be achieved by spending time on the forums, sending emails, online petitions or phone calls. If we are serious about solving this problem, we all need to make a united push and seek Immigration reform for high-skilled community.

krishmunn
03-02-2011, 06:05 PM
Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009

This is a very rough estimate assuming 30K SOFAD every year which in itself is a huge assumption. 2007 has very heavy traffic and the density is very light starting mid 2008. I feel 2012 seems to be a very optimistic scenario for your case 2013 is both the conservative and worst case of what we can think now. ...

Thanks a lot for your calculations. Now that the Northern border is sealed for IT professionals, I think I need to just wait and watch.

TeddyKoochu
03-02-2011, 07:16 PM
goel_ar, pbuckeye and anybody else who are living in the disneyland of thinking only EB2-I will/shall get the spill over visa - there are atleast 128,875 EB3 applicatants, as of Feb 09 2011, whose applications are most probably pre-adjudicated and waiting for a visa number are eligible for spillover visas in the absence of EB-2 I/C pending applications.

For full disclosure, I am an EB-2 I from Nov 2007 and waiting to file 485. I fear I may not get the chance to file my AOS even by Oct 2013. Sorry for raining on your little parade here.

Friends the extent of PD porting is being grossly overstated. Last year it was only 3K for India. PD porting in ROW is way less. This year the MAX it can go even if we are conservative should be 6K unfortunately no good way to calculate this year beacuse of the inventory update to include district offices. EB2-I/C and even EB3 ROW are ok that there is hope that GC will come in a few years for EB3-I the only hope is PD porting if PD > 2002.

snathan
03-02-2011, 08:16 PM
Friends the extent of PD porting is being grossly overstated. Last year it was only 3K for India. PD porting in ROW is way less. This year the MAX it can go even if we are conservative should be 6K unfortunately no good way to calculate this year beacuse of the inventory update to include district offices. EB2-I/C and even EB3 ROW are ok that there is hope that GC will come in a few years for EB3-I the only hope is PD porting if PD > 2002.

I hope you are aware of the audit and scrutiny for porting.

Not every one has the opportunity/luxury of porting

gc_vbin
03-03-2011, 01:34 AM
I hope you are aware of the audit and scrutiny for porting.

Not every one has the opportunity/luxury of porting

I've heard quite a few horror stories of porting lately... USCIS has been going behind the original EB3 application as to what happened to that job requirement and if the company tried to fill that position before filing the new EB2 petition.. so it is not as easy anymore.. so folks please be careful..

It seems like the only safe option for us EB3-I folks is to change employers and then file a new EB2 perm and port the original EB3 PD... trying to port with the same employer is increasingly turning out to be risky.

TeddyKoochu
03-03-2011, 10:33 AM
I hope you are aware of the audit and scrutiny for porting.

Not every one has the opportunity/luxury of porting

Yes I understand that the scrutiny at I140 level is very high, this is precisely why PD porting was 3K last year and it will not explode this year, all that talk is highly overstated. On this blog for predictions and calculations all we should say that for EB3-I friends to be able to get GC anytime soon PD porting is the only hope.

blacktongue
03-03-2011, 10:50 AM
Yes I understand that the scrutiny at I140 level is very high, this is precisely why PD porting was 3K last year and it will not explode this year, all that talk is highly overstated. On this blog for predictions and calculations all we should say that for EB3-I friends to be able to get GC anytime soon PD porting is the only hope.

Another BIG idea for all EB3 India short cut greencard.

Go to India or any country outside USA 1 year. Work for American company from there back after 1 year L1 visa apply EB1.

You get greencard in 1 outside USA +6 month process=1.5 years not 20 years.

dummgelauft
03-03-2011, 02:34 PM
I've heard quite a few horror stories of porting lately... USCIS has been going behind the original EB3 application as to what happened to that job requirement and if the company tried to fill that position before filing the new EB2 petition.. so it is not as easy anymore.. so folks please be careful..

It seems like the only safe option for us EB3-I folks is to change employers and then file a new EB2 perm and port the original EB3 PD... trying to port with the same employer is increasingly turning out to be risky.

I have two fellows here, that tried with existing employer...no luck...

gcwait2007
03-03-2011, 02:38 PM
I have two fellows here, that tried with existing employer...no luck...

+1 from my company

(He is BCom, ACA with 20 yrs of experience, SAP specifically 14 years. His case was rejected purely b'cas of his 3 yrs degree)

snathan
03-03-2011, 03:00 PM
I have two fellows here, that tried with existing employer...no luck...

Would you mind to share the issue...it might be helpful for others...

waitingnwaiting
03-03-2011, 04:25 PM
Would you mind to share the issue...it might be helpful for others...

One shoe does not fit all. If the job does not require advance degree or experience. however much you try you will fail and employer will lose money in application process. Nobody wins. So first check if the job actually needs an experienced person for that designation.

gc_vbin
03-04-2011, 12:08 AM
One shoe does not fit all. If the job does not require advance degree or experience. however much you try you will fail and employer will lose money in application process. Nobody wins. So first check if the job actually needs an experienced person for that designation.

I agree. Also, as i mentioned in my earlier comment the employee and the employer need to make sure they have a good documented answer regarding the original EB3 petition (if it is the same employer). Otherwise you will end up both risking your current EB3 application as well as worrying if the new EB2 will get approved or not...

gc_check
03-04-2011, 09:40 AM
Looks like EB3 employed with large US companies (Fortune 50), who already ended up in EB3 due to ignorance of their own and did not purse/work on getting EB2 through the employer or was misguided or due to err by Attorney taking the easy route are some how stuck in the mess. Getting to upgrade to EB2 in the same organization has practical challenges, in the era, all large corporation truing to trim expensed in every little thing possible. Unless these folks (many don't, at least till GC) switch jobs and some how get in the EB2 line, they are stuck in EB3 waiting list for visa. Based on my experience and running by some folks, I notice the winners in the EB2 porting are the ones working for small / mid-size ? Consulting (Placement Services) companies and looks like EB2 now takes only 2-3 weeks in some cases and with Premium I-140, a good number of EB3 (2004 and later) are getting on the EB2 line. Unless there isn't a Visa Recapture or Increase in visas, EB3 seems to have stuck in a terrible situation. IV likes are trying hard, but over the years, I have started loosing the steam :( . Hope fully this year bring some relief before the Presidential re-election /election madness kicks off...

h1b_slave
03-04-2011, 12:24 PM
Hi TeddyKoochu,
i don't see any mention of EB3-I here , wondering what are your predictions on dates for EB3-I.
Thanks

Let me draw out a rough estimate here is what I feel.

Sep 2011 - Feb 2007
Sep 2012 - Jan 2008
Sep 2013 - Jun 2009

This is a very rough estimate assuming 30K SOFAD every year which in itself is a huge assumption. 2007 has very heavy traffic and the density is very light starting mid 2008. I feel 2012 seems to be a very optimistic scenario for your case 2013 is both the conservative and worst case of what we can think now. However think about this in 2009 the SOFAD was only 10K if we were to go back to those levels by any chance like EB2 ROW filing increasing etc it would be disastrous. For now we should just focus year by year anything beyond that is very hard to predict. I hope we are all out of this mess with our GC's soon. Please don't take table to heart its out of my gut feeling but maybe lets all start debating this because when once can hope to get GC is very important to every one of us.

Try this formula EB2-I

Best Case - PD + 4 Years (If this date falls before Sep)
Worst Case - PD + 5 Years.

Just a thought about our friends whose PD is in May 2006 and not current it must be a really sad.
I don't know if it makes people feel happy this year only 6 more months to go so think like 6 months, 18 months 30 months ...

dummgelauft
03-04-2011, 12:36 PM
Would you mind to share the issue...it might be helpful for others...

There is no issue, one of the guys Labor went into audit, so the company refused to support his EB2 and as a consequence to this, the company did not even apply for the second guy.

TeddyKoochu
03-04-2011, 02:33 PM
Hi TeddyKoochu,
i don't see any mention of EB3-I here , wondering what are your predictions on dates for EB3-I.
Thanks

EB3-I will be around 15th May 2002 you will be greened by Sep 2011, all the best.

bobyal
03-04-2011, 04:40 PM
I wonder if there is anyway to project/predict the EB2/3 queues, if the above bill passes (infant stage as of now).

jackisback
03-04-2011, 09:02 PM
Not sure if any of these calculations really help... But what WILL help is more members going to the DC advocacy event to lobby for what IV is asking for.

Please try going to DC, or if you can donate air miles, or want to car pool or can host someone or can help in any other way - that would be the best thing to do.

Good Luck!

extra_mint
03-05-2011, 12:52 PM
goel_ar, pbuckeye and anybody else who are living in the disneyland of thinking only EB2-I will/shall get the spill over visa - there are atleast 128,875 EB3 applicatants, as of Feb 09 2011, whose applications are most probably pre-adjudicated and waiting for a visa number are eligible for spillover visas in the absence of EB-2 I/C pending applications.

For full disclosure, I am an EB-2 I from Nov 2007 and waiting to file 485. I fear I may not get the chance to file my AOS even by Oct 2013. Sorry for raining on your little parade here.

Good Point but u missed out that out of 128K EB3 (for all countries) USCIS has 40K (approx) ...thus not all in EB3 will try to port to EB2 as wait time is defined 2 to 3 years.

However it make sense for EB3 I/C to port as they are the last ones to get spill overs.
Thus Teddy's calculation/approximation of 6K porting for Entire year looks like a good ball park figure.

snthampi
03-07-2011, 05:24 PM
One shoe does not fit all. If the job does not require advance degree or experience. however much you try you will fail and employer will lose money in application process. Nobody wins. So first check if the job actually needs an experienced person for that designation.

I know someone with 3 year Diploma (10+3) from India with 10+ years experience, applied in EB2 6 months after me and already got GC. This guy doesn't even have 15 years of education, and is also a Mechanical diploma holder, working in IT (with some MS certifications). The bottom line is, degree is not a norm. So, don't go by someone else's experience.

snathan
03-08-2011, 10:39 AM
I know someone with 3 year Diploma (10+3) from India with 10+ years experience, applied in EB2 6 months after me and already got GC. This guy doesn't even have 15 years of education, and is also a Mechanical diploma holder, working in IT (with some MS certifications). The bottom line is, degree is not a norm. So, don't go by someone else's experience.

This was once up on a time...now I doubt he wouldnt even get H1B.

lfadgyas
03-08-2011, 11:44 AM
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

gcwait2007
03-08-2011, 11:55 AM
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

The data shows that EB3 to EB2 porting happening for India and exceeds > 233 per month :(

TeddyKoochu
03-08-2011, 11:59 AM
The data shows that EB3 to EB2 porting happening for India and exceeds > 233 per month :(

In my calculations I have assumed 6K for the year I believe we definitely will not exceed that.

TeddyKoochu
03-08-2011, 12:00 PM
This was once up on a time...now I doubt he wouldnt even get H1B.

I second Nathan, these days the enforcement levels are very high.

belmontboy
03-08-2011, 12:25 PM
This was once up on a time...now I doubt he wouldnt even get H1B.

Hey Snathan, sent you a private msg

dilber
03-08-2011, 01:09 PM
In my calculations I have assumed 6K for the year I believe we definitely will not exceed that.

Change in Cumulative demand for india EB3:
Cumulative
demand
Prior to: | March | April | Change
1-Jan-03 |07,850 |07,500 |350
1-Jan-04 |20,050 |19,675 |375
1-Jan-05 |34,250 |33,850 |400
1-Jan-06 |43,475 |43,050 |425
1-Jan-07 |54,575 |54,200 |375

1> Notice that there is a 350 drop in the total demand before Jan 2003. At least 240 of those are the monthly quota for EB3. So there is a net change of 110 let us assume those are all porting cases.

2> For the year prior to jan 2004 the change is 375 but 350 of this is being double counted because prior to 2004 includes Prior to 2003 so the net change is 25

3> For the year prior to jan 2005 the change is 400 but 375 of this is being double counted because prior to 2005 includes Prior to 2004 so the net change is 25

4> For the year prior to jan 2006 the change is 425 but 400 of this is being double counted because prior to 2006 includes Prior to 2005 so the net change is 25

5> there is a net increase in the cumulative demand in the year 2006 (prior to 2007-Prior to 2006) assume those are the cases from the field office etc. because no new filing could have been done.

So essentially the net decrease in the EB3 count that cannot be explained by the regular use in the EB3 category is just 110+25+25+25=185

This is far less then the 500 that teddy has assumed in his calculations. I suppose come July we might be pleasantly surprised. :D

gcpb
03-08-2011, 01:48 PM
. . . So essentially the net decrease in the EB3 count that cannot be explained by the regular use in the EB3 category is just 110+25+25+25=185

This is far less then the 500 that teddy has assumed in his calculations. I suppose come July we might be pleasantly surprised. :D

Nice calculations! Nice work!

However, please note that this accounts for porting cases where the employer has remained the same. In cases of porting applications with change in employer, the count of EB3 may not necessarily be decreased and thus cannot be counted by this approach. Please correct me if this is an incorrect statement.

anemmani
03-08-2011, 02:39 PM
This is far less then the 500 that teddy has assumed in his calculations. I suppose come July we might be pleasantly surprised. :D

dilber,

net change in EB3 demand = new cases from field offices - successful EB3 -> EB2 ports

While the net EB3 demand has gone down by 185, the actual EB3 -> EB2 porting may be higher.

Nag

sathishav
03-08-2011, 03:14 PM
So when is the "estimate" for a Mar 05 EB3-I to be greened? :D

snthampi
03-08-2011, 03:15 PM
This was once up on a time...now I doubt he wouldnt even get H1B.

May be or not. Every case is looked at differently. One need to discuss their case with a professional attorney and decide, not by stray comments from any tom, dick and harry.

snthampi
03-08-2011, 03:17 PM
So when is the "estimate" for a Mar 05 EB3-I to be greened? :D

Probably by 2015.

bratramm
03-08-2011, 03:29 PM
FOR EB2:
The total demand till end of 2007 is 32000 approx.
given that eb2 will get 40000 every year, will the PD not move closer to end of 2007 by sep 2011??
i mean should we not be more optimistic than saying the dates will go only till jan 2007?
cheers
p.s. i know i am missing porting, and dependents filing and all those new filers after july 2007-but i also am not using any SOFAD....guess that should even out...
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

snathan
03-08-2011, 03:43 PM
May be or not. Every case is looked at differently. One need to discuss their case with a professional attorney and decide, not by stray comments from any tom, dick and harry.

Comments from forums should be taken only for information purpose...I am sure every one has their own attorney for H1?GC. So your tom, dick and harry all unwarrented.

dilber
03-09-2011, 11:37 AM
Nice calculations! Nice work!

However, please note that this accounts for porting cases where the employer has remained the same. In cases of porting applications with change in employer, the count of EB3 may not necessarily be decreased and thus cannot be counted by this approach. Please correct me if this is an incorrect statement.

Why would it be different for same vs different employer? when some one tries to port they will have to let USCIS know about their other pending application to capture the PD I would suppose that once they accept the port to EB2 they would stop counting the same applicant in the EB3 pool as well. Am I missing some thing here?


dilber,

net change in EB3 demand = new cases from field offices - successful EB3 -> EB2 ports

While the net EB3 demand has gone down by 185, the actual EB3 -> EB2 porting may be higher.

Nag

You are correct the net demand is probably higher then 185 it should be close to 240 per month. If there were less then the 240 monthly quota for EB2 then the dates would have moved forward even if very very slowly. also if there was consistently more then 240 porting per month then the dates would have retrogressed. Since neither of the 2 scenarios have happened I would bet that the avg number of EB3 ->EB2 porting is close to 240 per month.

TeddyKoochu
03-09-2011, 11:49 AM
Change in Cumulative demand for india EB3:
Cumulative
demand
Prior to: | March | April | Change
1-Jan-03 |07,850 |07,500 |350
1-Jan-04 |20,050 |19,675 |375
1-Jan-05 |34,250 |33,850 |400
1-Jan-06 |43,475 |43,050 |425
1-Jan-07 |54,575 |54,200 |375

1> Notice that there is a 350 drop in the total demand before Jan 2003. At least 240 of those are the monthly quota for EB3. So there is a net change of 110 let us assume those are all porting cases.

2> For the year prior to jan 2004 the change is 375 but 350 of this is being double counted because prior to 2004 includes Prior to 2003 so the net change is 25

3> For the year prior to jan 2005 the change is 400 but 375 of this is being double counted because prior to 2005 includes Prior to 2004 so the net change is 25

4> For the year prior to jan 2006 the change is 425 but 400 of this is being double counted because prior to 2006 includes Prior to 2005 so the net change is 25

5> there is a net increase in the cumulative demand in the year 2006 (prior to 2007-Prior to 2006) assume those are the cases from the field office etc. because no new filing could have been done.

So essentially the net decrease in the EB3 count that cannot be explained by the regular use in the EB3 category is just 110+25+25+25=185

This is far less then the 500 that teddy has assumed in his calculations. I suppose come July we might be pleasantly surprised. :D


Nice calculations the logic looks great. However there is 1 factor i.e. the addition of the district office numbers to the inventory if you account for this the actual porting will come out higher. It may well be close to the 6K per annum. Because of the inventory update with the district office numbers the compare approach which really was the only approach to calculate porting won't work we will have to just guesstimate the figure.

Sreeshankar
03-09-2011, 01:00 PM
I believe the April Visa Bulletin is out..
from the VB DHS site:
India Eb 2 remains same.
India Eb 3 April 04

Visa Bulletin For April 2011
PrintEmail
Number 31
Volume IX
Washington, D.C.

A. STATUTORY NUMBERS

1. This bulletin summarizes the availability of immigrant numbers during April. Consular officers are required to report to the Department of State documentarily qualified applicants for numerically limited visas; the Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Services in the Department of Homeland Security reports applicants for adjustment of status. Allocations were made, to the extent possible under the numerical limitations, for the demand received by March 8th in the chronological order of the reported priority dates. If the demand could not be satisfied within the statutory or regulatory limits, the category or foreign state in which demand was excessive was deemed oversubscribed. The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits. Only applicants who have a priority date earlier than the cut-off date may be allotted a number. Immediately that it becomes necessary during the monthly allocation process to retrogress a cut-off date, supplemental requests for numbers will be honored only if the priority date falls within the new cut-off date which has been announced in this bulletin.

2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

3. Section 203 of the INA prescribes preference classes for allotment of immigrant visas as follows:

FAMILY-SPONSORED PREFERENCES

First: (F1) Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Citizens: 23,400 plus any numbers not required for fourth preference.

Second: Spouses and Children, and Unmarried Sons and Daughters of Permanent
Residents: 114,200, plus the number (if any) by which the worldwide family preference level exceeds 226,000, and any unused first preference numbers:

A. (F2A) Spouses and Children: 77% of the overall second preference limitation,
of which 75% are exempt from the per-country limit;

B. (F2B) Unmarried Sons and Daughters (21 years of age or older): 23% of the overall second preference limitation.

Third: (F3) Married Sons and Daughters of Citizens: 23,400, plus any numbers not required by first and second preferences.

Fourth: (F4) Brothers and Sisters of Adult Citizens: 65,000, plus any numbers not required by first three preferences.

EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES


INES.

5. On the chart below, the listing of a date for any class indicates that the class is oversubscribed (see paragraph 1); "C" means current, i.e., numbers are available for all qualified applicants; and "U" means unavailable, i.e., no numbers are available. (NOTE: Numbers are available only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the cut-off date listed below.)

Family- Sponsored All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA-mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
F1 01MAY04 01MAY04 01MAY04 15FEB93 01APR95
F2A 01APR07 01APR07 01APR07 01JUL06 01APR07
F2B 15APR03 15APR03 15APR03 15JUL92 01DEC99
F3 15MAR01 15MAR01 15MAR01 08NOV92 01JAN92
F4 01FEB00 01JAN00 01FEB00 01FEB96 08MAR88
*NOTE: For April, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 01JUL06. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 01JUL06 and earlier than 01APR07. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)


Employment- Based
All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed

CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 22JUL06 08MAY06 C C
3rd 22JUL05 01MAR04 08APR02 08MAY04 22JUL05
Other Workers 22JUL03 22APR03 08APR02 22JUL03 22JUL03
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th C C C C C
Targeted Employment Areas/ Regional Centers C C C C C
5th Pilot Programs C C C C C
The Department of State has available a recorded message with visa availability information which can be heard at: (area code 202) 663-1541. This recording will be updated in the middle of each month with information on cut-off dates for the following month.

Employment Third Preference Other Workers Category: Section 203(e) of the NACARA, as amended by Section 1(e) of Pub. L. 105-139, provides that once the Employment Third Preference Other Worker (EW) cut-off date has reached the priority date of the latest EW petition approved prior to November 19, 1997, the 10,000 EW numbers available for a fiscal year are to be reduced by up to 5,000 annually beginning in the following fiscal year. This reduction is to be made for as long as necessary to offset adjustments under the NACARA program. Since the EW cut-off date reached November 19, 1997 during Fiscal Year 2001, the reduction in the EW annual limit to 5,000 began in Fiscal Year 2002.

B. DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT (DV) CATEGORY

Section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides a maximum of up to 55,000 immigrant visas each fiscal year to permit immigration opportunities for persons from countries other than the principal sources of current immigration to the United States. The Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act (NACARA) passed by Congress in November 1997 stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This reduction has resulted in the DV-2011 annual limit being reduced to 50,000. DV visas are divided among six geographic regions. No one country can receive more than seven percent of the available diversity visas in any one year.

For April, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2011 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately
AFRICA 35,450 Except: Egypt 27,600
Ethiopia 22,150
Nigeria 14,100
ASIA 19,250 Except:Bangladesh 18,350
EUROPE 23,200
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 8
OCEANIA 1,000
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN 1,075

Entitlement to immigrant status in the DV category lasts only through the end of the fiscal (visa) year for which the applicant is selected in the lottery. The year of entitlement for all applicants registered for the DV-2011 program ends as of September 30, 2011. DV visas may not be issued to DV-2011 applicants after that date. Similarly, spouses and children accompanying or following to join DV-2011 principals are only entitled to derivative DV status until September 30, 2011. DV visa availability through the very end of FY-2011 cannot be taken for granted. Numbers could be exhausted prior to September 30.

C. ADVANCE NOTIFICATION OF THE DIVERSITY (DV) IMMIGRANT CATEGORY RANK
CUT-OFFS WHICH WILL APPLY IN MAY

For May, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2011 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately
AFRICA 42,000
Except: Egypt 31,200
Ethiopia 26,200
Nigeria 15,450

ASIA 23,500
EUROPE 27,800
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 12
OCEANIA 1,175
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN 1,150
D. RETROGRESSION OF FAMILY PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATES

Continued heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First (F1) preference category has required the retrogression of the Worldwide, China-mainland born, and India cut-off date for the month of April.

Further retrogressions cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels for some categories and countries.

E. OBTAINING THE MONTHLY VISA BULLETIN





VISABULLETIN@STATE.GOV

(This address cannot be used to subscribe to the Visa Bulletin.)

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO:March 8, 2011

bitzbytz
03-09-2011, 01:25 PM
EB3 is 08 Apr 02
Visa Bulletin For April 2011 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5368.html)

raj1998
03-09-2011, 04:06 PM
Congratulations to all the EB3 guys who got current.

dkshitij
03-09-2011, 04:07 PM
Every body who benefits from this platform please donate $50 for the advocacy event. Help IV help you.

gcpb
03-09-2011, 04:17 PM
Why would it be different for same vs different employer? when some one tries to port they will have to let USCIS know about their other pending application to capture the PD I would suppose that once they accept the port to EB2 they would stop counting the same applicant in the EB3 pool as well. Am I missing some thing here?

I gather from other posts that in case of same employer, uscis asks the employer explicitly for the status of the EB3 job position. From that, I believe they would stop counting that application in the EB3 pool.

However, I also gather that there is no such follow up in case of different employer. To the extent that such a change does NOT cancel the EB3 application, thereby making this a "safer" bet for those who are porting. From this, I inferred that the new EB2 application, while it does add to the EB2 pool, there is no corresponding reduction in the EB3 pool at that time. Probably later, when the EB2 approval is granted, then the EB3 pool is also reduced by them.

Does this make sense, or is there some basic flaw in my understanding?

gc_peshwa
03-09-2011, 08:18 PM
TO the 10 members viewing this thread at this time....PLEASE contribute and participate in the DC Advocacy day. One fill up of gas is $50 today and sometimes you have to work weekends. Think of Advocacy as doing couple of gas fillups for your car on a working weekend :)