Economy in trouble

[skd]

If you have been following the news this week, the economy is really in trouble. Specifically financial and insurance sector. Dow plunged around 900 + points in last 2 days.

[yagw]

[ sorry if not relevant to the OP.]

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080915_270731.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

The study shows the U.S. still leads the world in the "human capital" category, which measures the number of students attending universities, a country's capacity to train scientists and engineers, and employment in the tech sector as a percentage of the overall workforce. Here too, though, the U.S. lead is threatened. While students from other countries still flock to U.S. universities to get their MBAs and PhDs, tight immigration policies are causing more of those students to go home after graduation. "Our own education system is not producing the innovators we need," Estrin says. "And we're not opening our doors to the best people, and our immigration policy is such that we have been making it harder for them to stay, and so they are going home and innovating elsewhere."

[my2cents]

Probably, Keeping job (at least 6 month to ride wave) is much more important then GC. Smartest people in the world (on wall street) doomed us !!!

[Dhundhun]

Not relevent to immigration, but, It is important for us to hold job. A lot of bleeding happening in financial segment and our jobs may be at risk.

These bailouts has been described by Professor Nouriel Roubini as "privatization of profit and socialization of losses" (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_govt_spends_900b_to_take_over_failing_cos/articleshow/3495793.cms). I think communists are as "socialization of profits as well as losses".

My couple of friends are expert in FIX (Financial Information eXchange) and were asking me to move in that area. Now, I am not sure to put it on hold or entirely shelve it. But this is just an idea, how we could be affected by this downturn and priorities can change.

[nojoke]

Goldman Sachs is next. Then WaMu + there will be bank runs. It doesn't look good. We will probably see car makers in line. Home builders will be next. Dell, HP is laying off. We are totally sc----d. We have no hope of GC. We will be lucky to hold on to our jobs.:(

[chennaigc]

Stock market is beaten in all the way...People who put money in the market and if they dont look their protofolios next day , their money completely wipes off irrespective of any branded stocks they own!!! Entire world is going down in that US economy is centric part.Even bill gates may become next minute beggar here!!!

Indians who worked over here for long times from 8 to 10 years who earn in lakhs are worth less than a petty shop owner in india finacially. Because they put money in lawyers,travel,housing, stocks, bonds,401k which all become worthless.

Our dreams for coming here are to earn good money . Earnt it but we lost it without even knowing we lost it !!!!

[GCStatus]

Goldman Sachs is next. Then WaMu + there will be bank runs. It doesn't look good. We will probably see car makers in line. Home builders will be next. Dell, HP is laying off. We are totally sc----d. We have no hope of GC. We will be lucky to hold on to our jobs.:(

Oh my God, i am screwed, end of the world, life sucks, dont know what to do, i am crying, i am bleeding, screaming, God, superpower help meeeee, save meeee

Get a life dude, you werent born thinking america

[nojoke]

Oh my God, i am screwed, end of the world, life sucks, dont know what to do, i am crying, i am bleeding, screaming, God, superpower help meeeee, save meeee

Get a life dude, you werent born thinking america

If you don't like my rant stop reading it. What the hell is 'born thinking america'. Why do you rant about GC then? Why do you care being on this board? You go get a life. I never compelled to comment on my rant? Did I? You must have gone crazy

[nojoke]

it seems like that ...actually if things get worse and many of us indeed lose jobs ..then I guess the mighty GC will finally become just a silly card.
here is a link which explains why it is not yet over ..I was talking to a friend and he told me that credit card companies, auto loans , commercial loans are in big trouble and could be the next shoe to drop. as for housing ..there was a small light at the end of tunnel ..but it seems that it was big bang collapse of wall street ..

------------
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105782/How-We-Got-Here-It-Is-Housing-Stupid

It will probably cause inflation. Eventually they hope that house prices will catch up with the inflation. But a small problem though. The salary is not going to rise to match the housing price. The great benefits of global economy.:)

[rkm]

NICE JOKE..

It will probably cause inflation. Eventually they hope that house prices will catch up with the inflation. But a small problem though. The salary is not going to rise to match the housing price. The great benefits of global economy.:)

[alterego]

This is no doubt a bad time for the US economy. However the world is not going to collapse. We will nearly certainly see a recession. Outside chance of a depression. The credit markets are frozen, confidence has been shaken, housing is searching for a bottom, unemployment has ticked up a percentage point so far, and the stock market is down about 20%.

However, put that in the context of the great depression in the late 20s and into the early 30s. 25% unemployment, Widespread bank failures with no FDIC insurance, Many companies collapsed and people lost their life savings just by keeping it in the bank, Stock markets down by nearly 90%, people died of starvation! Yeah those things happened in this country. In fact, many observers attribute that experience for the extremely frugal nature of the elderly in this country, the so called great generation. Perhaps this will change current US attitudes away from consumption and toward savings. Perhaps entitlement reform will be fast tracked. We shall see.

Things are bad. Structural changes are needed. The war must be ended and the resources redirected. Americans also need to adjust to the new realities in a globalizing world some of which are not particularly appealing.
However also remember, the US has many geo-political advantages, control of a massive amount of natural resources, still the best R&D, an advanced industrial base, well developed infrastructure, and despite the current wall street mess no currency seems imminently capable of replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency (hence giving the Federal reserve the enormous power of the printing press). Note that not a single currency has appreciated more than 5% viz a vie during this crisis. In fact Gold has outperformed all! Quite simply noone believes another economy is ready at this time.

Hopefully the job market will not get too messy. The market will bottom in the next 6 months or so, once their is a complete clean out of the balance sheets. We are probably past the half way point in this. Exactly when it ends noone knows however.

If you have savings consider putting it in blue chip consumer staples, when you feel there is a bottom in stocks. Diversify internationally, Consider letting your wife go on a gold buying binge............:).

Quit worrying, this too shall pass. This downturn will be longer than recent ones however. Might be measured in terms of a few years rather than months.

[gjoe]

If you have lots of money in the US you may be at risk of losing atleast some part of it. I think buying gold or buying property at a bargain price would be a safe bet. Don't let too much money in the banks. FDIC insurance covers upto $100K for an individual acct.
Some analysts say that approximately 150 banks or investment firms are expected to fall within the next 15 months. There is a high chance for FDIC to go bankrupt. But if that doesn't happen currency value of the USD might sink.
Save your savings now or never

Greenspan one of the architects of this mess says, this is once in a century event.
Greedy politicians are saying, this is because of the greed in wall street but not the people.
I485 applicants say, show me the green (money)

[nojoke]

This is no doubt a bad time for the US economy. However the world is not going to collapse. We will nearly certainly see a recession. Outside chance of a depression. The credit markets are frozen, confidence has been shaken, housing is searching for a bottom, unemployment has ticked up a percentage point so far, and the stock market is down about 20%.

However, put that in the context of the great depression in the late 20s and into the early 30s. 25% unemployment, Widespread bank failures with no FDIC insurance, Many companies collapsed and people lost their life savings just by keeping it in the bank, Stock markets down by nearly 90%, people died of starvation! Yeah those things happened in this country. In fact, many observers attribute that experience for the extremely frugal nature of the elderly in this country, the so called great generation. Perhaps this will change current US attitudes away from consumption and toward savings. Perhaps entitlement reform will be fast tracked. We shall see.

Things are bad. Structural changes are needed. The war must be ended and the resources redirected. Americans also need to adjust to the new realities in a globalizing world some of which are not particularly appealing.
However also remember, the US has many geo-political advantages, control of a massive amount of natural resources, still the best R&D, an advanced industrial base, well developed infrastructure, and despite the current wall street mess no currency seems imminently capable of replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency (hence giving the Federal reserve the enormous power of the printing press). Note that not a single currency has appreciated more than 5% viz a vie during this crisis. In fact Gold has outperformed all! Quite simply noone believes another economy is ready at this time.

Hopefully the job market will not get too messy. The market will bottom in the next 6 months or so, once their is a complete clean out of the balance sheets. We are probably past the half way point in this. Exactly when it ends noone knows however.

If you have savings consider putting it blue chip consumer staples, when you feel there is a bottom in stocks. Diversify internationally, Consider letting your wife go on a gold buying binge............:).

Quit worrying, this too shall pass. This downturn will be longer than recent ones however. Might be measured in terms of a few years rather than months.

It is not end of the world. But end of the economy as we know it. People smarter than me and you have said this is turning into an armageddon.

[GCStatus]

If you don't like my rant stop reading it. What the hell is 'born thinking america'. Why do you rant about GC then? Why do you care being on this board? You go get a life. I never compelled to comment on my rant? Did I? You must have gone crazy


when did i rant..haha, its funny when people are cornered they talk stuff which arent even relevant

you crack me up, no offence

[alterego]

It is not end of the world. But end of the economy as we know it. People smarter than me and you have said this is turning into an armageddon.

Armageddon or not, smart or fool, time will tell. My view is recession yes, outside chance of a depression. Armageddon...........not really.

Interesting thing is Berkshire stock is up while all this is going on. Gives you an idea how much high regard people have for its balance sheet, Buffet and Co. stock picking prowess and his 30 plus billion cash war chest at this time.

[nojoke]

when did i rant..haha, its funny when people are cornered they talk stuff which arent even relevant

you crack me up, no offence

You cornered me? On what basis? You throw insult and that is your definition for cornered? Is there any logical argument that prove that I am wrong and you are right? Grow up and don't poison this thread with your pointless insults

[GCStatus]

You cornered me? On what basis? You throw insult and that is your definition for cornered? Is there any logical argument that prove that I am wrong and you are right? Grow up and don't poison this thread with your pointless insults

Omg, easy. This is embarrassing. You completely took it out of context. Its all good ok, its all good.

[nojoke]

Armageddon or not, smart or fool, time will tell. My view is recession yes, outside chance of a depression. Armageddon...........not really.

Interesting thing is Berkshire stock is up while all this is going on. Gives you an idea how much high regard people have for its balance sheet, Buffet and Co. stock picking prowess and his 30 plus billion cash war chest at this time.

I heard that he was asked by lehman to help them out and he politely refused.
I hope this recession/depression doesn't spread to Asia. India will be our refuge if this affects job market here.

[nojoke]

Omg, easy. This is embarrassing. You completely took it out of context. Its all good ok, its all good.
I will take it easy if you weren't intentionally insulting.

[GCStatus]

I will take it easy if you weren't intentionally insulting.

Woohoo, we have a winner

[lord_labaku]

This is not just contained in the US. Yes sub prime mortgage mess was concentrated in the US. credit crunch is affecting globally. This is unprecedented in recent years. Analyst opinions can be thrown out the window. There is big psychology to play. Are you willing to trust where u have ur money or not.? Thats the bottomline question at all levels...banks, bonds, stocks, commodities, options..country reserves etc.

Fed & treasury (also other similar global regulators - I know of Russia & India) are also pumping money into the system to prevent a total meltdown.

Liquifying of assets will happen sooner rather than later. Cash is King, Queen, Rook, ...pawn etc. But what is this cash? is this currency note that is getting devalued by the minute (global currency devaluation is going on). Or is this some commodity like Gold, oil? Whats gonna happen to gold prices? Oil prices are down in the condition that people consume less....global recession. Confidence in the fundamental economic system needs to happen for things to pick up. IMO that will happen only when the whole system is purged of such unregulated manipulation of paper money. Its gonna be back to basics - macro economic lesson for the whole world. price = where supply & demand curve meet.

As long as other global economies that rely & be dependent on the US economy still have faith in the US treasury...it may still be ok...but who knows when China is gonna start dumping US investments & adding gold to their reserves at a faster pace...at that time...more bets are off.

Another specific comment about someone mentioning socializing loss....to an extent thats true...but it wasnt like the majority of the US people didnt contribute to this mess...they did when they kept borrowing unending into the paper equity of their home value. They got to pay for it somehow tthrough their tax dollars. As for the few who judiciously saved & lived within their means...I really hope that the mess is contained enough to not wipe out their savings.

[NKR]

It is not end of the world. But end of the economy as we know it. People smarter than me and you have said this is turning into an armageddon.

Economy is falling, people are losing jobs, fuel prices are rising, depressing is coming, housing market is going down. Look at the brighter side, if you invest in constructing industry building apartments you can make money now.

Jokes apart, what were the people smarter than me and you doing to prevent all this from happening?. Weren;t they smart enough then?.

[nojoke]

Economy is falling, people are losing jobs, fuel prices are rising, depressing is coming, housing market is going down. Look at the brighter side, if you invest in constructing industry building apartments you can make money now.

Jokes apart, what were the people smarter than me and you doing to prevent all this from happening?. Weren;t they smart enough then?.

Those smart people are not in charge. The people in charge were saying everything is fine and go do shopping

[skd]

Those smart people are not in charge. The people in charge were saying everything is fine and go do shopping
No body saw this coming, then how can you trust those people again that things will be fine in 2 years or so.

As I said No body saw this coming , So we don't know if we have seen the bottom yet or not.

[GCard_Dream]

Did you tell that to John McCain? He still believes that fundamentals of this economy are still very strong. I sometime wonder if he is getting it confused with Chinese economy.

If you have been following the news this week, the economy is really in trouble. Specifically financial and insurance sector. Dow plunged around 900 + points in last 2 days.

[techskill]

Then we shud ask him what are the fundametals of the economy.Because once he said he doesnt know anything abt economy.

[desi chala usa]

It took 3-4 years to recover from dot com bubble........now this is the blast of financial industry so lets see how long it will take to recover....

[skd]

This is MUCH worse than Dot-Com bubble, As Dot-Com bubble was just for IT industry, this financial sector, Housing Sector, Insurence Sector. And obviously IT as IT is service industry for all these.
So we don't know what will happen.

It took 3-4 years to recover from dot com bubble........now this is the blast of financial industry so lets see how long it will take to recover....

[VivekAhuja]

Reading the posts about the economy has just shown me how ignorant many of the IV members are.

The economy is just going through it's ~10-year cycle. While it is a concern, it is NOT the end of the world. It just strenghtens USA's position in the world. Once again, it has proved that "if USA sneezes, the world catches the cold". The 10-years economic cycle follows a kind of Darwin's Law of the Fittest. The firms that are bubbled up get washed away, the economy cleans up and rebounds back. The 1990s saw it, the year ~2001 saw it with the dot.com burst and ~2009-2010 is seeing it with the mortgage burst.

While it is each one's perogative as to what you want to invest into (good time to buy stocks, or buy gold), another thing to understand is FDIC does NOT insure just 100K per account in each bank. There are multiple ways to increase this insurance to over $2 million in the same bank by opening different type of accounts or having different beneficiaries. Consult your bank for details.

No amount of govt. intervention can change the economy. It has it's own mind and will take it's own course.

There is no need to panic, pack and run.

Let the economy go through it's colon flush.

[desi chala usa]

Reading the posts about the economy has just shown me how ignorant many of the IV members are.

The economy is just going through it's ~10-year cycle. While it is a concern, it is NOT the end of the world. It just strenghtens USA's position in the world. Once again, it has proved that "if USA sneezes, the world catches the cold". The 10-years economic cycle follows a kind of Darwin's Law of the Fittest. The firms that are bubbled up get washed away, the economy cleans up and rebounds back. The 1990s saw it, the year ~2001 saw it with the dot.com burst and ~2009-2010 is seeing it with the mortgage burst.

While it is each one's perogative as to what you want to invest into (good time to buy stocks, or buy gold), another thing to understand is FDIC does NOT insure just 100K per account in each bank. There are multiple ways to increase this insurance to over $2 million in the same bank by opening different type of accounts or having different beneficiaries. Consult your bank for details.

No amount of govt. intervention can change the economy. It has it's own mind and will take it's own course.

There is no need to panic, pack and run.

Let the economy go through it's colon flush.

Please do not forget during 2001 - 2002 how many H1b friends packed and run away......Please think in terms of H1b people.....245(i) is saving you only up to 180 days.....if the person is crossing 180 days means he is all set for next 10 years to come back to U.S.A.

[nojoke]

Reading the posts about the economy has just shown me how ignorant many of the IV members are.

The economy is just going through it's ~10-year cycle. While it is a concern, it is NOT the end of the world. It just strenghtens USA's position in the world. Once again, it has proved that "if USA sneezes, the world catches the cold". The 10-years economic cycle follows a kind of Darwin's Law of the Fittest. The firms that are bubbled up get washed away, the economy cleans up and rebounds back. The 1990s saw it, the year ~2001 saw it with the dot.com burst and ~2009-2010 is seeing it with the mortgage burst.

While it is each one's perogative as to what you want to invest into (good time to buy stocks, or buy gold), another thing to understand is FDIC does NOT insure just 100K per account in each bank. There are multiple ways to increase this insurance to over $2 million in the same bank by opening different type of accounts or having different beneficiaries. Consult your bank for details.

No amount of govt. intervention can change the economy. It has it's own mind and will take it's own course.

There is no need to panic, pack and run.

Let the economy go through it's colon flush.

Everybody understands that we get this ups and down. The cycles once in a while gets bad. Very bad. We had great depression. This could be a great depression for the financial market. Lehman, which has survived 150 years and many economic cycles closed 2 days ago. So did Bear strerns fold. The dotcom bubble is what - 100 billion max? 200 billion? Here we are talking about trillion dollars.

FDIC has only 50 billion. It can cover a big bank like washington mutual. Can it take another big bank? Wachovia?
This time it is not going to strengthen US position. China is talking about creating a separate world currency and they are not happy with US currency. If china dumps, dollars, a lot of countries will follow.

This is just financial institues. It will have ripple effect on rest of the economy.

FDIC doesn't protect more than 100K if you open different accounts in the same bank. However joint accounts and beneficiary can get you protected for 200K.

[alterego]

This is a crisis of confidence, brought about by the weakness of the housing market and therefore the securities based on the mortgages to those homes.
House prices are down nearly 20% and have perhaps another 10% to go.
The pain ie 30% of the value of the housing stock will end up being distributed across various players. Homeowners will take the bulk of it, Financial institutions will take some, Gov't unfortunately will take some(ie tax payers), foreign investors will take some, Insurers some, Inflation will eat away some(this will be a 2-3 yr process when all is said and done), etc. In the end the markets will climb out of it. Exactly how much each of these parties will eat is currently being negotiated on capitol hill. The truth is nearly every bank is under water at this time. However, commercial banks are only safe because they have stable depositor bases. Hedge funds and other institutional investors who play the repo market are more fickle and have seized up the bank repo and other credit markets. Liquidity and lowered rates alone is not solving this mainly because it is a question of confidence. This will get better once the gov't puts in a more definitive solution. I hope however that whatever solution is provided makes it extremely painful for any one to want to take that route, ie the shareholders and management should be wiped out and that too only for a loan which must be repaid. IF real estate recovers to anything close to what it was in 2006 by say 2015 or if confidence surges sooner, then the US Gov't could conceivably make money from this.

[chanduv23]

These stories are scary


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_on_bi_ge/ny_economy_4




By MICHAEL GORMLEY, Associated Press Writer Thu Sep 18, 1:03 PM ET

ALBANY, N.Y. - A new projection shows Wall Street's meltdown will likely cost New York state up to 40,000 private sector jobs and $3 billion in tax revenues over the next two years, two state officials said Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT

The revised numbers in the snapshot of worst case estimates was done Wednesday at the highest levels of New York's state government.

The projection is worse than Gov. David Paterson predicted just Tuesday when he said the state could lose some $1 billion in revenue because of upheaval in the financial sector.

Wall Street is a major economic force in New York state, generating one-fifth of the state's revenues each year.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to comment on the fiscal analysis.

Both hits would be substantial. The total New York state budget including federal funds is about $120 billion, and the state has about 7.25 million private-sector jobs.

State officials used the model of the fiscal damage to New York after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Then, Gov. George Pataki said it was the worst financial hit to New York since the Great Depression 70 years earlier.

The new analysis includes the stock market drop, lost revenue from transactions and projected lost income tax revenue from Wall Street jobs.

Three of the five major U.S. investment banks — Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch — have either gone out of business or been driven into the arms of another bank. The two remaining banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, are under siege.

[reddog]

nojoke, do you even have a job?
why on earth are you so worried.

Your rants are getting endless, you are spreading pessimism everywhere. like you were a hedge fund manager and are going to file bankruptcy.
btw, during the dotcom thing, just the telecom company hit was close to $750 billion. And with the big VC funded ventures completely got wiped out, the losses were much large.
also the people that were affected, huge job losses. thousands of people showing up at small job fairs. it was a recession. economies go into recession, and come out of it.

And media likes pessimism, they like destruction, mayhem. If you have not figured that out yet, it is time.

yes, some of the concerns are valid, but you talk like nostradamus, as if you know whats happenin. like the country is going to pack its bags and every citizen is going back to where their ancestors came from. get real.
economies fail, its how much time it takes to bounce back is what matters.

I would say just chill, spend quality hours at your job then you did before, keep it secure, spend time with your family. live your life happily.

We are citizens of the world and with the globalization that has spread, the ripple effect is going to be felt far and wide.
These Investment banks has presence in over 50 countries worldwide.

You can run, but you cannot hide.







Everybody understands that we get this ups and down. The cycles once in a while gets bad. Very bad. We had great depression. This could be a great depression for the financial market. Lehman, which has survived 150 years and many economic cycles closed 2 days ago. So did Bear strerns fold. The dotcom bubble is what - 100 billion max? 200 billion? Here we are talking about trillion dollars.

FDIC has only 50 billion. It can cover a big bank like washington mutual. Can it take another big bank? Wachovia?
This time it is not going to strengthen US position. China is talking about creating a separate world currency and they are not happy with US currency. If china dumps, dollars, a lot of countries will follow.

This is just financial institues. It will have ripple effect on rest of the economy.

FDIC doesn't protect more than 100K if you open different accounts in the same bank. However joint accounts and beneficiary can get you protected for 200K.

[immigrationmatters30]

Do you guys think this is good time to stop consulting and joining a full time job(even though it pays less), if we can find one.

[chanduv23]

Do you guys think this is good time to stop consulting and joining a full time job(even though it pays less), if we can find one.

If your 485 has been filed and it is past 180 days - then fulltime job in wall street is safe otherwise you are better of with your consulting company

[immigrationmatters30]

What if 485 was not filed but have an approved 140? Economy is taking big hits on the all the consulting firms even the big ones.I know this because I work for one and I was told budget spending on IT is going to be really tight moving forward for another couple of years espcially in financial sector.

[nojoke]

nojoke, do you even have a job?
why on earth are you so worried.

Your rants are getting endless, you are spreading pessimism everywhere. like you were a hedge fund manager and are going to file bankruptcy.
btw, during the dotcom thing, just the telecom company hit was close to $750 billion. And with the big VC funded ventures completely got wiped out, the losses were much large.
also the people that were affected, huge job losses. thousands of people showing up at small job fairs. it was a recession. economies go into recession, and come out of it.

And media likes pessimism, they like destruction, mayhem. If you have not figured that out yet, it is time.

yes, some of the concerns are valid, but you talk like nostradamus, as if you know whats happenin. like the country is going to pack its bags and every citizen is going back to where their ancestors came from. get real.
economies fail, its how much time it takes to bounce back is what matters.

I would say just chill, spend quality hours at your job then you did before, keep it secure, spend time with your family. live your life happily.

We are citizens of the world and with the globalization that has spread, the ripple effect is going to be felt far and wide.
These Investment banks has presence in over 50 countries worldwide.

You can run, but you cannot hide.

You seem to be in this forum accusing me of discussing in this forum?:mad:Great. Get real. If I talk about the facts, it means I am spreading fear? If I stop talking about it, then the situation will magically go away? Nostradamus? I am saying what is in the news. Looks like you are predicting that everything will be fine and rosy. It is a free country. You want to disagree with me go ahead. Don't tell me not to talk about it.
Don't be delusional. I will be happy if things work out well for us. And don't think not talking about the problem will some how make it go away.

[chanduv23]

What if 485 was not filed but have an approved 140? Economy is taking big hits on the all the consulting firms even the big ones.I know this because I work for one and I was told budget spending on IT is going to be really tight moving forward for another couple of years espcially in financial sector.

Its going to be tough for everyone. Service industry is one such industry. try to avoid FT jobs in wall street.

[NKR]

You seem to be in this forum accusing me of discussing in this forum?:mad:Great. Get real. If I talk about the facts, it means I am spreading fear? If I stop talking about it, then the situation will magically go away? Nostradamus? I am saying what is in the news. Looks like you are predicting that everything will be fine and rosy. It is a free country. You want to disagree with me go ahead. Don't tell me not to talk about it.
Don't be delusional. I will be happy if things work out well for us. And don't think not talking about the problem will some how make it go away.

The problems will always be there, if you do not have the same problems tomorrow, there will be new ones. Do we really want to talk of all the problems in this world?...

The weather outside is good, the sky is bright and clear, there is plenty of sunshine with some chill in the air, soon there will be fall colors, then we will have Christmas and new year, the house market will improve, my son will start speaking his first words…dude, if you look around there are lot of small things that can make you happy.

As if waiting for GC is not problematic enough, we have to put up with your “sky will fall” predictions.….

[nojoke]

The problems will always be there, if you do not have the same problems tomorrow, there will be new ones. Do we really want to talk of all the problems in this world?...

The weather outside is good, the sky is bright and clear, there is plenty of sunshine with some chill in the air, soon there will be fall colors, then we will have Christmas and new year, the house market will improve, my son will start speaking his first words…dude, if you look around there are lot of small things that can make you happy.

As if waiting for GC is not problematic enough, we have to put up with your “sky will fall” predictions.….

If you don't want to hear the problems, you don't have to read these posts. Why do you insist that I stop posting, since you don't like it. :confused:
Since you think this is all my prediction - Today from washington post
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Citing Grave Financial Threats, Officials Ready Massive Rescue

Paulson and Bernanke presented a "chilling" picture of the state of the financial system, according to a participant in the meeting who spoke on condition of anonymity. Lawmakers were told that the consequences would be grave if they failed to pass legislation by the end of next week. Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) committed to meeting that deadline.
....
Now the government is contemplating its broadest -- and perhaps most expensive -- intervention to date.
The urgency has only grown with each successive intervention because the first three tries have not worked. People are withdrawing money from money-market mutual funds. Banks are refusing to lend to one another. Several large financial companies need money to stay in business, including the bank Washington Mutual, which is seeking a buyer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/18/AR2008091804200.html?hpid=topnews

And from NYtimes
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON — It was a room full of people who rarely hold their tongues. But as the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, laid out the potentially devastating ramifications of the financial crisis before congressional leaders on Thursday night, there was a stunned silence at first.

Mr. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had made an urgent and unusual evening visit to Capitol Hill, and they were gathered around a conference table in the offices of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“When you listened to him describe it you gulped," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.

As Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, put it Friday morning on the ABC program “Good Morning America”: “The congressional leaders were told “that we’re literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system, with all the implications here at home and globally.”

Mr. Schumer added, “History was sort of hanging over it, like this was a moment.”

When Mr. Schumer described the meeting as “somber,” Mr. Dodd cut in. “Somber doesn’t begin to justify the words,” he said. “We have never heard language like this.”

“What you heard last evening,” he added, “is one of those rare moments, certainly rare in my experience here, is Democrats and Republicans deciding we need to work together quickly.”

Although Mr. Schumer, Mr. Dodd and other participants declined to repeat precisely what they were told by Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson, they said the two men described the financial system as effectively bound in a knot that was being pulled tighter and tighter by the day.

“You have the credit lines in America, which are the lifeblood of the economy, frozen.” Mr. Schumer said. “That hasn’t happened before. It’s a brave new world. You are in uncharted territory, but the one thing you do know is you can’t leave them frozen or the economy will just head south at a rapid rate.”

As he spoke, Mr. Schumer swooped his hand, to make the gesture of a plummeting bird. “You know we’d be lucky ...” he said as his voice trailed off. “Well, I’ll leave it at that.”

As officials at the Treasury Department raced on Friday to draft legislative language for an ambitious plan for the government to buy billions of dollars of illiquid debt from ailing American financial institutions, legislators on Capitol Hill said they planned to work through the weekend reviewing the proposal and making efforts to bring a package of measures to the floor of the House and Senate by the end of next week.

[NKR]

Why do you insist that I stop posting, since you don't like it. :confused:
Never insisted you stop posting, was only hoping that you will post some sensible stuff

If you don't want to hear the problems, you don't have to read these posts.
It’s my mistake, I always thought that Mr NoJoke will post something nice but you disappoint me all the time. Henceforth I will stick to your advice.


Since you think this is all my prediction - Today from washington post

I am sticking to your advice, I am not reading that boring news.

[nojoke]

Never insisted you stop posting, was only hoping that you will post some sensible stuff


It’s my mistake, I always thought that Mr NoJoke will post something nice but you disappoint me all the time. Henceforth I will stick to your advice.


I am sticking to your advice, I am not reading that boring news.

You undertood what a forum is.
And again I don't need your certificate of approval.

[BharatPremi]

Probably, Keeping job (at least 6 month to ride wave) is much more important then GC. Smartest people in the world (on wall street) doomed us !!!

Now they are saying "Smartness" is a relative term.:)

[prioritydate]

Now they are saying "Smartness" is a relative term.:)


Heeeee... I know what you mean.

[prioritydate]

These stories are scary


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080918/ap_on_bi_ge/ny_economy_4




By MICHAEL GORMLEY, Associated Press Writer Thu Sep 18, 1:03 PM ET

ALBANY, N.Y. - A new projection shows Wall Street's meltdown will likely cost New York state up to 40,000 private sector jobs and $3 billion in tax revenues over the next two years, two state officials said Thursday.
ADVERTISEMENT

The revised numbers in the snapshot of worst case estimates was done Wednesday at the highest levels of New York's state government.

The projection is worse than Gov. David Paterson predicted just Tuesday when he said the state could lose some $1 billion in revenue because of upheaval in the financial sector.

Wall Street is a major economic force in New York state, generating one-fifth of the state's revenues each year.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to comment on the fiscal analysis.

Both hits would be substantial. The total New York state budget including federal funds is about $120 billion, and the state has about 7.25 million private-sector jobs.

State officials used the model of the fiscal damage to New York after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Then, Gov. George Pataki said it was the worst financial hit to New York since the Great Depression 70 years earlier.

The new analysis includes the stock market drop, lost revenue from transactions and projected lost income tax revenue from Wall Street jobs.

Three of the five major U.S. investment banks — Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch — have either gone out of business or been driven into the arms of another bank. The two remaining banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, are under siege.

Oh man! that is really scary.

[alterego]

To summarize this briefly.

The rescue plan = Transfer the "crap" from the balance sheet of the banks to the balance sheet of the US gov't and taxpayers. The government is buying rotting potatos for cold hard cash.

Benefits are nearer term, Consequences are longer term.

Consequensces will be:

1) Bigger deficits, budget especially

2) Less Gov't investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education etc. As the money is needed to feed the interest repayments and other obligations.

3) Higher interest rates for everything from mortgages, credit cards auto loans student loans...... you name it.

4) Higher taxes, federal and state and city.

5) Lower US dollar and higher inflation.

Unfortunately for us the recklessness of the management of the economy of this decade will be felt as a drag on progress, our earnings, taxes, benefits, even stock returns for a good part of our working lifetimes. This was a sad and unnecessary development brought about by pure greed and an ineffective government.

[kopra]

I Agree that the economy is in a mess. But i wouldnt completly blame the Greedy CEO's and board of directors. Some part of this is with the common people . Many of these people took those fancy loans thinking that by buying a million dollar home ( even though they cant afford it) and selling it after an year for 2 million dollars created this issue. Now their debt is our ( tax payers) debt as they walked out .
With the new proposal of Fed pumping in 700 Billion dollars to recuse all these companies will cause inflation and prices will skyrocket.
As a Side note, many immigrants will be going back to their home country just bacause they cant afford these. Numbersusa will be happy as the "numbers" will be going down...


To summarize this briefly.

The rescue plan = Transfer the "crap" from the balance sheet of the banks to the balance sheet of the US gov't and taxpayers. The government is buying rotting potatos for cold hard cash.

Benefits are nearer term, Consequences are longer term.

Consequesces will be:

1) Bigger deficits, budget especially

2) Less Gov't investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education etc. As the money is needed to feed the interest repayments and other obligations.

3) Higher interest rates for everything from mortgages, credit cards auto loans student loans...... you name it.

4) Higher taxes, federal and state and city.

5) Lower US dollar and higher inflation.

Unfortunately for us the recklessness of the management of the economy of this decade will be felt as a drag on progress for a good part our working lifetimes. This was a sad and unnecessary development brought about by pure greed and an ineffective government.

[nojoke]

Armageddon or not, smart or fool, time will tell. My view is recession yes, outside chance of a depression. Armageddon...........not really.

Interesting thing is Berkshire stock is up while all this is going on. Gives you an idea how much high regard people have for its balance sheet, Buffet and Co. stock picking prowess and his 30 plus billion cash war chest at this time.

Who still thinks this is a normal recession? I feel like saying "I told you so".

[sk2006]

Who still thinks this is a normal depression? I feel like saying "I told you so".

Noway it is normal..
When was the last "normal" economic cycle when so many big banks failed...

Lehman Brothers were 150 years old bank meaning they say great depression and the world wars and survived all of that.. This time it disappeared one morning.

Citi, BofA,Wells etc are all in trouble..
Would you believe Citi stock at 3 Bucks?

And it all started with Housing.

House prices never go down! Oh yeah.

[BECsufferer]

Noway it is normal..
When was the last "normal" economic cycle when so many big banks failed...

Lehman Brothers were 150 years old bank meaning they say great depression and the world wars and survived all of that.. This time it disappeared one morning.

Citi, BofA,Wells etc are all in trouble..
Would you believe Citi stock at 3 Bucks?

And it all started with Housing.

House prices never go down! Oh yeah.

I am tired of listening to depressing economic news and beating dead horse on this forum. I know you are also tired, but trust me this doesn't help anyone. I can say this because I come from area dependent on free-falling auto-industry ... yeah I am from Detroit.

Times may be tough, but we are making tougher for ourselves by re-hashing these bleak developments. Remember misery attracts misery!

[nojoke]

Noway it is normal..
When was the last "normal" economic cycle when so many big banks failed...

Lehman Brothers were 150 years old bank meaning they say great depression and the world wars and survived all of that.. This time it disappeared one morning.

Citi, BofA,Wells etc are all in trouble..
Would you believe Citi stock at 3 Bucks?

And it all started with Housing.

House prices never go down! Oh yeah.

"No way. House prices will never go down in California. Certainly not in bay area. Government will do all the magic to stop the crash... Not affordable, doesn't matter. Google stocks will make a lot of rich guys. BTW renting is throwing money away.":D:D:D:rolleyes:
I love the guys making those arguments.
Now it is India's turn.
"No way, India's real estate will crash. It has a huge population and a huge demand for 70 lakh apartments( even though there are only few people who can afford it)".:rolleyes:

[nojoke]

I am tired of listening to depressing economic news and beating dead horse on this forum. I know you are also tired, but trust me this doesn't help anyone. I can say this because I come from area dependent on free-falling auto-industry ... yeah I am from Detroit.

Times may be tough, but we are making tougher for ourselves by re-hashing these bleak developments. Remember misery attracts misery!

Easy solution - Please don't be forced to read them.
misery didn't attrach misery -housing bubble attracts misery.

[mbawa2574]

What a lovely change. Every time Obama and his press Secy opens their mouth, markets dive into red. In this country Main Street and Wall Street are in bed with each other :-)
Obama with his sense-less economic policies, trying to separate Main Street from Wall street. Government needs to seriously lure the investors to the market , cut capital gains and taxes, take off protectionist hats and recover the economy. Then Obama can go with his socialist/populist agenda but certainly this is not the right time.:D

[Tito_ortiz]

If you tired, why do you keep reading it? I think it is so irrational trying to admonish others.

I am tired of listening to depressing economic news and beating dead horse on this forum. I know you are also tired, but trust me this doesn't help anyone. I can say this because I come from area dependent on free-falling auto-industry ... yeah I am from Detroit.

Times may be tough, but we are making tougher for ourselves by re-hashing these bleak developments. Remember misery attracts misery!

[Tito_ortiz]

Unfortunately, Obama is not changing much. The mortgage bailout is just a show. Almost irrelevant.

What a lovely change. Every time Obama and his press Secy opens their mouth, markets dive into red. In this country Main Street and Wall Street are in bed with each other :-)
Obama with his sense-less economic policies, trying to separate Main Street from Wall street. Government needs to seriously lure the investors to the market , cut capital gains and taxes, take off protectionist hats and recover the economy. Then Obama can go with his socialist/populist agenda but certainly this is not the right time.:D

[mbawa2574]

Unfortunately, Obama is not changing much. The mortgage bailout is just a show. Almost irrelevant.

But as soon as he talks about his senseless economic plans, Investors pull their money out from the Market. Investors don't see a direction with Obama w.r.t solving this mess. Lack of investor confidence has a direct impact on the main street as companies will have to cut their Opex due to shortage of investment. Government can cut capital gains , lower down the taxes and bring more people to invest in the stock market.
If Obama goes by and spends all that money on government bull crap programs, it will not help private enterprise which in turn won't help in job growth or recovery. With no jobs and less consumer spending, economy will go into further hole with a huge debt.

[gc_wow]

Commodity prices like crudeoil,steel,wood used in construction are at lowest since a decade.The commodity prices will not go back to 2006 levels not in near future,so already constructed houses have lost almost 70% value in them.Bail out or another help will not sort this issue.Only free market has to solve the issue.For housing to get to 2006 levels there should be huge housing boom in China,India where they have huge populations.People in India are poor so they cant afford a house even if they want one.China wont spend they are intersted in buying US treasuries.So the only option for the bank is to write off these houses.Govt help for home owners will be only a drop in the ocean.

[gcnotfiledyet]

What a lovely change. Every time Obama and his press Secy opens their mouth, markets dive into red. In this country Main Street and Wall Street are in bed with each other :-)
Obama with his sense-less economic policies, trying to separate Main Street from Wall street. Government needs to seriously lure the investors to the market , cut capital gains and taxes, take off protectionist hats and recover the economy. Then Obama can go with his socialist/populist agenda but certainly this is not the right time.:D

Expect huge government control pretty much over everything from now on. Times of big government are back. Government (read leftist like Obama) has seen the result of private investors. Healthcare is a mess, education is below par, social security/medicare is on brink, rich getting richer, poor getting worse etc.

Obama has totally different philosophy than republicans. Bill clinton said era of big govt were over. But that is about to change. In insurance / pharma sectors govt will wipe off these scumbags. Insurance companies are nothing but taking away profits for no help. There is no reason for them to exist. If you think about insurance general americans are paying 11k for family on average income of 48k. That is tax of 20%. Also add profit taking by insurance companies to increase costs, preventive care totally denied, admins taking decision instead of doctors etc. I would rather pay 10% more taxes to govt than to insurance companies.

Govt is all ready to wipe off sallie mae. There is no reason for private investors need to provide loans for students. Government should be able to make federal loans and help students. Private investors made loans to students to fund their luxuries during colleges. These essential services critical for a nation should not be used to make profit. Or else it results in what we are seeing today.

Either way there is no debate that Obama will bring more government in every sector. This will discourage investors to put their money into it. It will also mean higher taxes for average public to use these services. It can mean that country will move in direction of services provided to average Joe rather than corporations making profits. As for investors they can forget to make blind profits from wall street. They will have to fund innovation rather than profit making by abusing law (read housing crisis).

[Wendyzhu77]

yes, this is much more troubling than the gc delay. If the country sank, what's the point of getting its GC???
If you have been following the news this week, the economy is really in trouble. Specifically financial and insurance sector. Dow plunged around 900 + points in last 2 days.

[nojoke]

What a lovely change. Every time Obama and his press Secy opens their mouth, markets dive into red. In this country Main Street and Wall Street are in bed with each other :-)
Obama with his sense-less economic policies, trying to separate Main Street from Wall street. Government needs to seriously lure the investors to the market , cut capital gains and taxes, take off protectionist hats and recover the economy. Then Obama can go with his socialist/populist agenda but certainly this is not the right time.:D

Stop watching faux news.
Bush has done tax cuts to the investor class and look where it has taken this country.

[nojoke]

But as soon as he talks about his senseless economic plans, Investors pull their money out from the Market. Investors don't see a direction with Obama w.r.t solving this mess. Lack of investor confidence has a direct impact on the main street as companies will have to cut their Opex due to shortage of investment. Government can cut capital gains , lower down the taxes and bring more people to invest in the stock market.
If Obama goes by and spends all that money on government bull crap programs, it will not help private enterprise which in turn won't help in job growth or recovery. With no jobs and less consumer spending, economy will go into further hole with a huge debt.

That has been tried for the past 8 years and all it did was create this mess.
Oh yeah, the private enterprises are hiring people left and right. :rolleyes:You must be from alternate universe or wathcing too much faux news.

[nojoke]

Commodity prices like crudeoil,steel,wood used in construction are at lowest since a decade.The commodity prices will not go back to 2006 levels not in near future,so already constructed houses have lost almost 70% value in them.Bail out or another help will not sort this issue.Only free market has to solve the issue.For housing to get to 2006 levels there should be huge housing boom in China,India where they have huge populations.People in India are poor so they cant afford a house even if they want one.China wont spend they are intersted in buying US treasuries.So the only option for the bank is to write off these houses.Govt help for home owners will be only a drop in the ocean.

Very true

[nojoke]

Unfortunately, Obama is not changing much. The mortgage bailout is just a show. Almost irrelevant.

They are throwing good money into a black hole.:mad:

[my2cents]

good analysis

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7813

[sk2006]

"No way. House prices will never go down in California. Certainly not in bay area. Government will do all the magic to stop the crash... Not affordable, doesn't matter. Google stocks will make a lot of rich guys. BTW renting is throwing money away.":D:D:D:rolleyes:
I love the guys making those arguments.
Now it is India's turn.
"No way, India's real estate will crash. It has a huge population and a huge demand for 70 lakh apartments( even though there are only few people who can afford it)".:rolleyes:

One more argument I hear.
Prices in good school districts will never go down.
They are still selling more than asking prices..

Now This sounds what I heard in 2001 dot com crash. When dot coms started crashing, people used to say stock of big ships like Cisco, Sun, Lucent etc can not and WILL NOT be affected.. It is just the small companies linked only to dot com will suffer.

Sounds similar?