Pending I-485 Numbers from USCIS

[HV000]

Pending I-485 numbers by category, country (India, Mexico, China, Philipines, ROW) posted on USCIS Website::)


http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf



Questions & Answers: Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Inventory

Q: Why is the wait so long for my employment-based green card?

A: A visa must be available before a person can obtain an employment-based green card. Because more people want a green card than there are visas available, not everyone who wants a green card can get one immediately. Therefore, some people have to wait in line until a visa is available. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) gives out 140,000 employment-based visas each year. About 85% of those visas go to people seeking a green card in the United States, while about 15% go to people seeking to immigrate from abroad. Currently, about 234,000 people have employment-based adjustment of status (green card) applications pending in the United States and are waiting to get a visa. How long you wait for a visa depends on the supply and demand for your particular preference category, your priority date, and the country your visa will be charged to, usually your country of birth.

Q: How can I determine my place in line based on my priority date?

A: Your preference category, priority date, and country of origin determine your place in line for a visa. The earlier your priority date is, the closer you are to the front of the line. To better assist you in knowing your place in line, we are posting a report of our total pending inventory of applications for employment-based green cards (Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status) for those seeking to adjust status in the United States. See the “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report” link to the right. We are also posting five other reports by country of chargeability (China, India, Mexico, Philippines, and All Other Chargeability) (see the links to the right).

The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications, per preference classification. The report shows how many pending adjustment of status (green card) applications in each preference classification have priority dates in a given month and year. You can use this chart to determine how many applicants in your preference classification have priority dates in the same month and year as your own. Also, you can determine how many applicants in your preference classification are ahead of you in line for a visa number by adding together the number of cases with an earlier priority date than your own.

The All Other Chargeability report shows how many applicants from countries other than China, India, Mexico, and the Philippines have priority dates in a given month and year. The report is broken down into separate charts for each preference classification. If you are from a country other than China, India, Mexico, or the Philippines, you can use this chart to determine how many applicants for adjustment of status in the same preference classification have a priority date in the same month and year as your own. This chart also lets you know how many applicants in the same preference classification have earlier priority dates.

Because of historically higher demand for visas from China, India, Mexico, and the Philippines, each of those countries has its own separate report. As published in the DOS Visa Bulletin, applicants from those countries will need to have earlier priority dates than like applicants from other countries to get a visa in any given month. If you are from China, India, Mexico, or the Philippines, you may want to use the report for your particular country. Your country report will show you how many applicants from the same country and preference classification have a priority date in the same month and year as your own. The report will also let you know how many applicants from the same country and preference classification have earlier priority dates.

Q: Which report should I use, the Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report or the country-specific reports?

A: All applicants for an employment-based green card may use the pending Form I-485 report to determine their place in line for a visa. Because certain countries experience higher demand than others, applicants in these “oversubscribed” countries may move forward in line more slowly than applicants in countries experiencing less demand. In other words, in order to obtain a visa, applicants in oversubscribed countries may need to have earlier priority dates than applicants in countries experiencing less demand. Applicants in oversubscribed countries may therefore want to also refer to the report for their specific country of chargeability to determine where they stand in line with other applicants from that country.

Q: What information do I need to have before using the pending Form I-485 inventory reports?

A: You need to know your priority date and your preference category to use the pending Form I-485 inventory reports. For more information on priority dates and preference categories, see the “Visa Availability & Priority Dates” and “Green Card Eligibility” links to the right.

Q: How do I read the pending I-485 inventory reports?

A: First, click on the link to the report you want to view. Once you click on the link, the report will appear and you will see a series of charts, one for each preference category. You will see that each chart has different numbers for each month and year. These numbers show how many green card applicants have priority dates in that month and year. To figure out how many applicants have earlier priority dates, add all the numbers from all the cells that correspond to earlier months.

Q: Can you tell me when I will get a visa?

A: Unfortunately, we cannot determine how long it will take for you to get a visa. However, we hope that by showing applicants with a pending Form I-485 where they stand in line to get a visa, you will get a better sense of how long it may take. We intend to update the data in these reports quarterly. By comparing newer versions of the reports with older ones, you may see that the number of applicants ahead of you has gotten smaller, and you may be able to tell how much shorter the line has become. We hope this will give you an even better sense of how long it may take for you to get a visa.

Q: Can you provide me an example of how to use the pending Form I-485 inventory charts?

A: Assume your priority date is in January 2007, your petition was approved for third preference, and you are from China. Using the Sample “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” below you will see on the third preference chart that there are 2,618 applicants with a priority date in the same month and year as your priority date.

If you want to find out how many third-preference green card applicants have an earlier priority date than yours, you will need to add all the numbers starting with the number at the beginning of the table, January 1997, and ending with the number immediately before the month and year of your own priority date, December 2006. You will see that there are 131,341 third-preference applicants who have a priority date earlier than yours.

Q: How do I know how many applicants from my country have an earlier priority date than mine?

A: Assume your priority date is in June 2005, your petition was approved for third preference, and you are from India. Using the Sample “I-485 Inventory for Individuals Born in India Report” below, you will see that there are 175 green card applicants from India with a priority date in June 2005.

To find out how many applicants born in India have an earlier priority date than yours, add all the numbers starting at January 1997 and ending at May 2005. You will see that there are 42,796 third-preference applicants from India with a priority date earlier than yours.

[HV000]

Not sure when the snapshot of information was taken by USCIS.
EB2 - INDIA
0 - 97
1 - 98
3 - 99
16 - 2000
71 - 01
189 - 02
440 - 03
6,324 - 04
10,791 - 05
19,240 - 06
10,467 - 07
178 - 08
8 - 09
TOTAL = 47,728

EB3 - INDIA
1 - 97
25 - 98
19 - 99
50 - 00
1,630 - 01
8,313 - 02
12,503 - 03
14,734 - 04
9,059 - 05
11,067 - 06
5,113 - 07
88 - 08
5 - 09
TOTAL = 62,607

[k3GC]

Is this report really it, we have been asking for this - by country, by category, by year, by month.

Of course there will be more questions - like why is EB3 India still in 2001? The EB2 India 2004 numbers - i am assuming they have not taken into account the approvals that have happened in September 2009 etc. etc.

I dont know whether to believe it or not :), but looks like the right details we have been asking for

[gcformeornot]

EB3 I is frozen to 2001 still chart shows 485 applications with PD 2008/2009. How is this possible?

If they are from BEC then their PDs should be prior to 2005. Why later 2007/2008/2009?????

Changeability is ruled out becoz then they should not show up in India...

[HV000]

Hope they update this quarterly. Althogh monthly will be ideal.

[FinalGC]

This document is valid as of what date??? When was this generated??? What date is this pending data of???

[vdlrao]

Pending I-485 numbers by category, country (India, Mexico, China, Philipines, ROW) posted on USCIS Website::)


http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf



Questions & Answers: Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Inventory

Q: Why is the wait so long for my employment-based green card?.

Hi HV000,

really thank you for postng such an useful informaton .i dont have the power to give you greens more than once at a tme. otherwise might have given ten greens.

[irock]

If changeability of spouse is non-India, and if both apply for I-485 -- spouse will be in non-india, and primary will show up in India. Note that these are based on country of birth, not based on country of changeability.

EB3 I is frozen to 2001 still chart shows 485 applications with PD 2008/2009. How is this possible?

If they are from BEC then their PDs should be prior to 2005. Why later 2007/2008/2009?????

Changeability is ruled out becoz then they should not show up in India...

[HV000]

Thanks VDLRAO!! Please continue with your predictions based on the numbers here.

[soormabhopali]

If you save the PDF and check the properties , you will find who created it and when

[nrk]

Hi,
By seeing the data from USCIS, i still have a doubt that still 6k more applications pending in 2004 itself????

[srini1976]

Not sure when the snapshot of information was taken by USCIS.
EB2 - INDIA
0 - 97
1 - 98
3 - 99
16 - 2000
71 - 01
189 - 02
440 - 03
6,324 - 04
10,791 - 05
19,240 - 06
10,467 - 07
178 - 08
8 - 09
TOTAL = 47,728

EB3 - INDIA
1 - 97
25 - 98
19 - 99
50 - 00
1,630 - 01
8,313 - 02
12,503 - 03
14,734 - 04
9,059 - 05
11,067 - 06
5,113 - 07
88 - 08
5 - 09
TOTAL = 62,607

Thanks HV000. Gave you green.

[pointlesswait]

only 8 Eb2 in 2009...thats hilarious..and a good sign...for both Eb2 and Eb3..
i pity the dude with 98 PD.... patha nahi kis janam ka paap bhugat raha hai woh..;)



Not sure when the snapshot of information was taken by USCIS.
EB2 - INDIA
0 - 97
1 - 98
3 - 99
16 - 2000
71 - 01
189 - 02
440 - 03
6,324 - 04
10,791 - 05
19,240 - 06
10,467 - 07
178 - 08
8 - 09
TOTAL = 47,728

EB3 - INDIA
1 - 97
25 - 98
19 - 99
50 - 00
1,630 - 01
8,313 - 02
12,503 - 03
14,734 - 04
9,059 - 05
11,067 - 06
5,113 - 07
88 - 08
5 - 09
TOTAL = 62,607

[srini1976]

Hi HV000,

really thank you for postng such an useful informaton .i dont have the power to give you greens more than once at a tme. otherwise might have given ten greens.

Hey dude,

You have all the numbers now. Please goahead with your great predictions. EAGERLY WAITING.

Cheers.

[ronhira]

this data is better than nothing..... but its still kind of not useful as most of us want .... a guy with priority date of 2005 in eb2 may think that he has just around 17000 application ahead of him, but this data doesn't include the adjustment of status applications that are not yet filed ...... i.e. people with approved/pending application for labor/i-140 in eb2, who have not yet filed i-485......

the estimation tells us the earliest we can get the approval...... it will not help us to get the real or latest timeframe. but still better than nothing.....

[vdlrao]

So theres no wonder if t takes 2 years for every one year EB2-inda forward movement, by seeing these EB2-inda numbers.

[HV000]

This document is valid as of what date??? When was this generated??? What date is this pending data of???

It was created by one Rishi Lekhram (SCOPS) on Monday - sep 21 at 4.48pm. We don't know when snapshot was taken perhaps prior to sep 1st?

[kondur_007]

So according to these data, EB2 India will likely to be current by the end of fiscal year!
(or at least reach 2008 mark)

[k_usa]

You are right

Rishi Lekhram - LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/rishi-lekhram/13/a08/a59)

It was created by one Rishi Lekhram (SCOPS) on Monday - sep 21 at 4.48pm. We don't know when snapshot was taken perhaps prior to sep 1st?

[vdlrao]

this data is better than nothing..... but its still kind of not useful as most of us want .... a guy with priority date of 2005 in eb2 may think that he has just around 17000 application ahead of him, but this data doesn't include the adjustment of status applications that are not yet filed ...... i.e. people with approved/pending application for labor/i-140 in eb2, who have not yet filed i-485......

the estimation tells us the earliest we can get the approval...... it will not help us to get the real or latest timeframe. but still better than nothing.....


Most of the people (except very few of unmarried individuals) have fled the 485s n July 2007 fiasco. So the data from 2007 onwards s not correct where as n 2007 year its partially correct.

[mps]

Excellent comment "ronhira" !

I think your comments are mostly applicable for people who missed 2007 July green rush.
By July 2007 almost all of Backlog LCs were approved, none of the black-market LC can be filed now therefore we will have very few people geting ahead in the queue for PDs earlier than 2007 Feb/March/April/June.




this data is better than nothing..... but its still kind of not useful as most of us want .... a guy with priority date of 2005 in eb2 may think that he has just around 17000 application ahead of him, but this data doesn't include the adjustment of status applications that are not yet filed ...... i.e. people with approved/pending application for labor/i-140 in eb2, who have not yet filed i-485......

the estimation tells us the earliest we can get the approval...... it will not help us to get the real or latest timeframe. but still better than nothing.....

[srini1976]

If these numbers makes sense. EB2 (India & China) would be current by Sep 2010 (based on spill over received either Quarterly or at the end of last quarter). And should help our EB3 friends as well.

[maxy]

awesome find. there are about 46,000 cases ahead of mine. that should take about 20 yrs for me get Greened !!

EAD is the way to go ... no fear !

[kondur_007]

So theres no wonder if t takes 2 years for every one year EB2-inda forward movement, by seeing these EB2-inda numbers.

Count the spill over as well. Provided that there are only 7K pending EB2 ROW and EB1 usage will not be too significant, EB2 I can potentially get around 70k visa numbers easily; making it current or at least in 2008.

The variable that can affect this are:
1. Consular post usage
2. Increase in EB1C usage (does not seem to be too much though).
3. New filings of 485 (people who missed July 2007 boat and people with PDs after that)

so all in all, you will get your GC by next Sept vdlrao!!

[maxy]

how many visas are available each year per country per preference ? say INDIA EB3 ?

[HV000]

this data is better than nothing..... but its still kind of not useful as most of us want .... a guy with priority date of 2005 in eb2 may think that he has just around 17000 application ahead of him, but this data doesn't include the adjustment of status applications that are not yet filed ...... i.e. people with approved/pending application for labor/i-140 in eb2, who have not yet filed i-485......

the estimation tells us the earliest we can get the approval...... it will not help us to get the real or latest timeframe. but still better than nothing.....

I think most of the BEC LC should have been filed by now. EB2 - I for SEP 2008 Bulletin went upto AUG 2006. We can expect a number of dependent I-485 petitions to be filed as dates go forward.

[k3GC]

If this is a quarterly report - is it correct that this was generated based on data as of Jun 30, 2009. The next quarter ends on Sep 30, 2009.:)

[kondur_007]

I think most of the BEC LC should have been filed by now. EB2 - I for SEP 2008 Bulletin went upto AUG 2006. We can expect a number of dependent I-485 petitions to be filed as dates go forward.

By the way, HOW DARE you reveal the TOP SECRET information obtained via "FOIA'??? :D:D:D:D
You must go to jail for this big crime on IV...I may join you there.:D
Gave you a green.....:) Thanks buddy...

[kate123]

In The FAQ's section, it is mentioned that CIS will update the info quarterly. So, I guess this data is AS OF last quareter which is June/2009...

This document is valid as of what date??? When was this generated??? What date is this pending data of???

[beautifulMind]

if USCIS gives away 140k per year and they have decided to use all visa numbers because of horizontal spill...shouldn't all of us get green card in the next 2 years

[kondur_007]

if USCIS gives away 140k per year and they have decided to use all visa numbers because of horizontal spill...shouldn't all of us get green card in the next 2 years


Yes, but count on:
1. New filings of 485 (which is frozen after july 2007 fiasco)
2. Visa numbers used at consular posts...

so it will be more like 4-5 yrs before all backlog is cleared (instead of 2 yrs). Still a great news...

[transpass]

In The FAQ's section, it is mentioned that CIS will update this document quarterly. So, I guess this data is AS OF June/2009...

If the data is of Jun 30, 09, it took nearly 3 months to put it up, so the data for the quarter ending sep 09 will be put up on the site in dec 09? WOW....But nonetheless, I would be happy if the above data is before this year's spill over...:)

[HV000]

If this is a quarterly report - is it correct that this was generated based on data as of Jun 30, 2009. The next quarter ends on Sep 30, 2009.:)

I hope so :). This report will become most sorted after the Visa Bulletin!! Lets hope the numbers get updated around Oct 15th.

[HV000]

Thanks Kondur007!!

[krishmunn]

[QUOTE=kondur_007;954429]Count the spill over as well. Provided that there are only 7K pending EB2 ROW and EB1 usage will not be too significant, EB2 I can potentially get around 70k visa numbers easily; making it current or at least in 2008.

[QUOTE]

This looks logical.

A quick calculation on Worldwide (including I + C) numbers---

EB1 has 4000 pending . Assume another 6000 during current year. That makes total requirement 10000.
Allocated per year approx 39000 (28% os 140K)

Available for EB2 -- 29K

EB4 has 2000 pending . Add another 1000 for current year making it 3000
Allocated 9800 (7 % of 140K)

Available 6800

EB5 has 66 pending . Add another 40 to make it around 100
Allocated -- 9800

Available -- 9700

So total available for EB2 will be 39K( of EB2) + 29 K (EB1) + 6.8K (EB4) + 9.7K (EB5) == 84.5K
Pending EB2 -- 74K

Given that not too many EB2 140 are being filed lately, it is possible EB2 will be current for all by end of fiscal year.

I am probably being over optimistic but EB2 coming to late 2007 or early 2008 if not current is highly possible IMHO.

[hibworker]

We should not be using 140k as total yearly quota. According to USCIS FAQ typically 85% is used by 485 and the rest is used by CP. So annual quota for 485 is 85% of 140k = 119k

[krishmunn]

Does anyone know how/why the system shows pending 485 for EB2 and EB3 for India/China for 2008/2009.

After July 2007, dates for EB2 for I+C has never moved beyond 2006 so how can one submit 485 with a PD of 2008 and 2009 ? Same goes for EB3 too .

[gcformeornot]

Does anyone know how/why the system shows pending 485 for EB2 and EB3 for India/China for 2008/2009.

After July 2007, dates for EB2 for I+C has never moved beyond 2006 so how can one submit 485 with a PD of 2008 and 2009 ? Same goes for EB3 too .

If changeability of spouse is non-India, and if both apply for I-485 -- spouse will be in non-india, and primary will show up in India. Note that these are based on country of birth, not based on country of changeability.

[tempgc]

You are right

Rishi Lekhram - LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/rishi-lekhram/13/a08/a59)

Can we send a message to him and ask when was this data taken from their database ?

[transpass]

Gurus,

BTW, how are the spill-over visas allocated? Do they do quarterly or only during fiscal year end in Sep?

[belmontboy]

Does anyone know how/why the system shows pending 485 for EB2 and EB3 for India/China for 2008/2009.

After July 2007, dates for EB2 for I+C has never moved beyond 2006 so how can one submit 485 with a PD of 2008 and 2009 ? Same goes for EB3 too .

I think the dates are RD's and not PD's

[ocpmachine]

Thanks OP for posting the links.

Do we know if the numbers given by USCIS include dependents or just primary applicant numbers? This makes a lot of difference in our prediction or calculation!!

[Brightsider]

Thanks Kondur007!!

Great Post!!
Thanks for the information, it is mind-boggling........the opaque screen giving way to clear visibility. Well, to a great extent,at least!

As far as the data's date goes, I think that it has captured all info till Aug 09. There are a few Aug entries.

Considering that this data pertains to all pending applications, it is proper to infer that dependents have also been counted.

Guess we will have some clarifications soon, about the remaining doubts. All in all, the information is truly amazing. No more of the monthly predictions.
Quite a change....seeing is believing !

[krishmunn]

Thanks OP for posting the links.

Do we know if the numbers given by USCIS include dependents or just primary applicant numbers? This makes a lot of difference in our prediction or calculation!!

That should include dependedt. 485 are filed separately

[HV000]

Thanks OP for posting the links.

Do we know if the numbers given by USCIS include dependents or just primary applicant numbers? This makes a lot of difference in our prediction or calculation!!

The pending I-485 numbers includes dependents as well.

[belmontboy]

Atleast now one should be able to get a clear picture of situation.

Using your RD, you should be able to find how many ppl are ahead of you in the queue.

[GMKrishna]

Based on this data, the following variables impact equation for EB-3 I.

1. Spill-over expected from EB-2. Based on the available numbers, EB-2 will become current by the end of 2010 fiscal year. However there could be additional applications from 2007/2008/2009 waiting to apply for I-485. (High impact)
2. Any additional EB-3 from prior years. (Low impact)
3. Additional EB-3 ROW from prior years (Medium impact)
4. USCIS processing efficiency. I hope they are not going to waste any visas. (High Impact)

Once we factor in the above, we should be able to get a clear picture on EB-3 I.

[Sunx_2004]

I am not able to understand, The PD were current in the month the of JULY/ AUG2007. After that they were never current. How come there are 485s filed with PDs later than August 2007.

Anyone?

EB3 I is frozen to 2001 still chart shows 485 applications with PD 2008/2009. How is this possible?

If they are from BEC then their PDs should be prior to 2005. Why later 2007/2008/2009?????

Changeability is ruled out becoz then they should not show up in India...

[django.stone]

I think these have been asked by other people in this thread, but nobody is sure of the answer, so I am repeating it again.

1. Date of report:

I think we are leaning towards calling this as of Jun 30, 2009 which is great news, as since that time, more EB2I's have been cleared.

2. Is it only filed 485s or also includes unfiled labors?

If it is only filed 485s, then we can't have cases > Jul 2007 PD - this seems to contradict the report.

So, if the data also includes unfiled labors, then how do they include dependents for unfiled labors? Do they include dependents for filed cases and for unfiled they don't?

[Sunx_2004]

You meant PD not RD I guess

Atleast now one should be able to get a clear picture of situation.

Using your RD, you should be able to find how many ppl are ahead of you in the queue.

[hibworker]

Can we send a message to him and ask when was this data taken from their database ?
Please go ahead and do so. whose permission do you need? ;-)

[ujjwal_p]

Atleast now one should be able to get a clear picture of situation.

Using your RD, you should be able to find how many ppl are ahead of you in the queue.

It's not Rd, it's PD. Mentioned in the FAQ.

[ocpmachine]

I think these have been asked by other people in this thread, but nobody is sure of the answer, so I am repeating it again.

1. Date of report:

I think we are leaning towards calling this as of Jun 30, 2009 which is great news, as since that time, more EB2I's have been cleared.

2. Is it only filed 485s or also includes unfiled labors?

If it is only filed 485s, then we can't have cases > Jul 2007 PD - this seems to contradict the report.

So, if the data also includes unfiled labors, then how do they include dependents for unfiled labors? Do they include dependents for filed cases and for unfiled they don't?

Good points, One more point to consider is-->
3. Number of 485 application rejections:
CIS sent out bunch of RFE for pre-adjudicating 485 apps during May-tilldate, i am sure they are some apps that were rejected due to no response to RFE or 485 apps being revoked due to layoffs , this further reduces the 485 pending numbers.

[Brightsider]

Since we have entries for Aug 09, we can reasonably assume that the data does not include September 09 approvals.

The other thing while making projections/deductions is that a percent of the annual quota goes for consular processing. Not sure whether it is 10% or 15%.

And if the spillover takes place every quarter, we can make decently reliable predictions.

[Dhundhun]

PDF document properties shows date to be Sep 21, 2009. Which indicates it is recent publicatioin. Data may be old. If data is also recent, it is disappointing information.

[greencard_fever]

:eek: Guys look at that there is one app pending since Oct-98..poor guy who is waiting for more then 10 yrs...hatsoff to USCIS.:eek::eek:

[khodalmd]

There are few dumb people who file without priority date. Once this cases taken by IO, they are going to deny. Or these case have disputed PDs.



If it is only filed 485s, then we can't have cases > Jul 2007 PD - this seems to contradict the report.

So, if the data also includes unfiled labors, then how do they include dependents for unfiled labors? Do they include dependents for filed cases and for unfiled they don't?

[gc_wow]

So September approvals data not included in this report.

[Desi Unlucky]

So September approvals data not included in this report.

gc_wow - wondering how u arrived at August 25th ? It looks abought right though, based on the EB1 data found for each of the classifications I,C, Mex, Phil, ROW. 0 against September indicating that september is not considered.

[gvenkat]

:eek: Guys look at that there is one app pending since Oct-98..poor guy who is waiting for more then 10 yrs...hatsoff to USCIS.:eek::eek:

For all purposes he must have left the country and dont give a shit about the GC. so i would not pity him :(

[kondur_007]

Gurus,

BTW, how are the spill-over visas allocated? Do they do quarterly or only during fiscal year end in Sep?

Traditionally, USCIS/DOS has done spill-over only at the end of fiscal year. Howver, actual language of the rule states that it should happen every quarter.

Chances are, they will continue to do spill over at the end of fiscal year (i.e. last quarter) when they will move EB2 India and China together. (That is more convenient to them)

Now, they can also come forward and say, "oooppsss, now that we read our own rule, it appears that we should do it every quarter!" (similar story as horizontal spill..!!:p).
Those people read worse than fifth grader :D

[redgreen]

now we have almost clear data on how many applications are remaining. if we know the spillover number we can estimate when the dates will be current for eb2 and eb3 (india, china,..). what were the spillover numbers in previous years? any data?

even if the spillover is 20000, only after 2011 eb2 india pd will be in 2007.

[jackisback]

gc_wow - wondering how u arrived at August 25th ? It looks abought right though, based on the EB1 data found for each of the classifications I,C, Mex, Phil, ROW. 0 against September indicating that september is not considered.

If you go to the USCIS site where this info is posted in Green Cards > More Information section on the top right, it shows the date - last updated Aug 25 2009

********************
More Information
Green Card Resources
I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated August 25, 2009) ( PDF)
Questions & Answers: Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Inventory

Forms

[belmontboy]

now we have almost clear data on how many applications are remaining. if we know the spillover number we can estimate when the dates will be current for eb2 and eb3 (india, china,..). what were the spillover numbers in previous years? any data?

even if the spillover is 20000, only after 2011 eb2 india pd will be in 2007.

1.) what is the Date thing? PD or RD.
Cannot be PD as it shows EB2-I > july 2007
not sure if its RD as their FAQ says otherwise.

[gbof]

Since we have entries for Aug 09, we can reasonably assume that the data does not include September 09 approvals.

The other thing while making projections/deductions is that a percent of the annual quota goes for consular processing. Not sure whether it is 10% or 15%.

And if the spillover takes place every quarter, we can make decently reliable predictions.


take in count 'multiple-filing' (each spouse filing as primary and derivative, EB1 filing in EB2, EB2 NIW filing 2-separately etc to enhance chances) where approval of one obligates withdrawal of 2nd one. This will reduce the queue furthur

[redgreen]

USCIS says it is PD, so it could be. It can not be RD, otherwise the number of I-485 in Jul 07 should have been much more. it is just an average number.
there are very few after Jul/Aug 07; may be they were born in India but could apply under some some other country quota by marriage, etc.

1.) what is the Date thing? PD or RD.
Cannot be PD as it shows EB2-I > july 2007
not sure if its RD as their FAQ says otherwise.

[Brightsider]

Now, they can also come forward and say, "oooppsss, now that we read our own rule, it appears that we should do it every quarter!" (similar story as horizontal spill..!!:p).
Those people read worse than fifth grader :D

While that is a possibility, there may be a more charitable explanation. Only now does the USCIS have a clear picture of pendency, assuming that this exercise took place for the first time since retrogression in 2005. Hence, they are now in a position to systematically advance the PDs without having to retreat when more turned up.

One thing is not clear to me. While I do believe that the numbers include dependent applications, I am not sure if they include all CP cases. Technically they should, since they are also I-485 cases. However, better and more reasoned opinion is welcome.

So my $.02 is that EB -3I will get over the April 2001 obstacle in a quarter and will not look back. And, once April is crossed, it will reach the end of 2001 pretty fast.

[HV000]

Now we have the data. Can the pundits predict the EB2 and EB3 - I movement for the upcoming visa bulletins? A lot of 2004 eb2-I cases should be cleared by Oct 30th. These numbers are not reflected in USCIS figures.

[illinois_alum]

While that is a possibility, there may be a more charitable explanation. Only now does the USCIS have a clear picture of pendency, assuming that this exercise took place for the first time since retrogression in 2005. Hence, they are now in a position to systematically advance the PDs without having to retreat when more turned up.

One thing is not clear to me. While I do believe that the numbers include dependent applications, I am not sure if they include all CP cases. Technically they should, since they are also I-485 cases. However, better and more reasoned opinion is welcome.

So my $.02 is that EB -3I will get over the April 2001 obstacle in a quarter and will not look back. And, once April is crossed, it will reach the end of 2001 pretty fast.

This data is only for pending I-485 applications - which is filed only for adjustment of status - immigrants already in the US. CP applicants do not fall under this purview.

[vdlrao]

how many visas are available each year per country per preference ? say INDIA EB3 ?

Number of visas available per country, per year, per category are 1/3(9,800) = 3,266.
This number is wth out the spill over.

[WeldonSprings]

If one looks closely at visa bulletins for Aug.2008 and Sept.2008; dates went all the way till May 2006 for EB-2 India. It is at that time, that many folks, were able to file.

I am not able to understand, The PD were current in the month the of JULY/ AUG2007. After that they were never current. How come there are 485s filed with PDs later than August 2007.

Anyone?

[arkrish68]

As per the file listed in the USCIS link there are 8 employment based applications pending for 2009 under 2nd Preference for INDIA, I am not sure how that is possible when the dates never crossed 2007.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

[GC4US]

Does anyone know how many visas are given away for each category?
For eg. how many for Eb3-I and how many for Eb3 ROW?..per year?
I know in total there are 140.000 for all categories.

Thanks!

[sroyc]

EB3 I gets 7% X 28.6% X 140000 = 2802 visas annually + any spillover
EB3 ROW gets 28.6% X 140000 - 4 X 2802 (India/China/Mexico/Philippines) = 31634 visas + any spillover

Does anyone know how many visas are given away for each category?
For eg. how many for Eb3-I and how many for Eb3 ROW?..per year?
I know in total there are 140.000 for all categories.

Thanks!

[eyeswe]

1) Interestingly EB3 India since 2005 is less than EB2 India...for every single year. Is that even possible? I thought there were more EB3.in queue as well as those that have applied. Has there been so much of porting in these later years?

2)Are we sure these are cases that the agency has received and not those that have been pre-adjudicated?

This seems more like Y2K..The EB queue was a prophecy of doom and suddenly it seems like it won't be so bad after all.. I just can't believe this data that's all.. may be the doubting Thomas in me is not ready to leave... after so many years of being told that it will be a 10 year wait...I am still planning on that albeit w/o even an EAD... Not sure how.

We need to pursue the IV goal of reclaiming lost visas.. let us not loose that focus please...

[sameer2730]

1.) what is the Date thing? PD or RD.
Cannot be PD as it shows EB2-I > july 2007
not sure if its RD as their FAQ says otherwise.

It could be based on number of adjudicated I-140s in which case it makes sense from PD perspective.

[vdlrao]

Is that the link working now.

[newbie2020]

Nope the link isn't working anymore, Did anyone grab a copy of the PDF..?

[sameer2730]

1) Interestingly EB3 India since 2005 is less than EB2 India...for every single year. Is that even possible? I thought there were more EB3.in queue as well as those that have applied. Has there been so much of porting in these later years?

2)Are we sure these are cases that the agency has received and not those that have been pre-adjudicated?

This seems more like Y2K..The EB queue was a prophecy of doom and suddenly it seems like it won't be so bad after all.. I just can't believe this data that's all.. may be the doubting Thomas in me is not ready to leave... after so many years of being told that it will be a 10 year wait...I am still planning on that albeit w/o even an EAD... Not sure how.

We need to pursue the IV goal of reclaiming lost visas.. let us not loose that focus please...
No the real reason is that almost everyone who files in EB3 could have filed in EB2. The reason that EB3 filings were more in the earlier years is because dates were current and lawyers advised everyone to file EB3. In the later years reality sank in and everyone just applied in Eb2.

[rockstart]

Just trying to predict visa bulletien movements based on numbers.

If we assume that USCIS has moved data till Jan 20th and that covers entire 2004 and 2/3rd of 2005 (Jan) then I feel if next hump for EB2 I is March 2005. There are 3k plus applications sitting there so in case there is no quarterly spill over we will see EB2(i) struck in Mar05 till Sep bulletien. But after that Apr - June are literally nothing and will just fly away. That would leave only Sep Nov & Dec as months with 1k plus applications. I feel by end of this USCIS calendar year we should definately zoom into 2006.

But 2006 data is 20K applications. That means its going to be a while before is can cross over 2006 into 2007. which is 10K (same as 2005).

[rockstart]

There are few dumb people who file without priority date. Once this cases taken by IO, they are going to deny. Or these case have disputed PDs.

This is my take and I could be wrong but I feel these are cases of cross portablity. Example primary applicant could be EB2 (I) but spouse might be born in ROW country. Example Dubai (expatriate children) or someother place. Then one can file 485 since ROW is current. Still when querying DB the 2 have been split under India and ROW.

[gc28262]

USCIS pending I-485 numbers is only part of the picture. To get a complete picture we need the number of pending CP cases from DOS.

[glus]

hello,

This link should work. If not, just go to uscis.gov site, and in the search type in "i-485 inventory" and follow the links.

USCIS - 485 Inventory Reporthttp://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/3rd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Children)/Green%20Card%20-%203rd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I485%20Reports.pdf


My take is that it is huge that USCIS will be issuing this report quarterly. The did not do it in the past. At least, we can have some mathematical picture in place. Guys, keep in mind that these numbers show only Pending I485s. You need to account for CP cases, which historically are at about 15% of the quotas. Also, keep in mind, that not all of the pending 485s will be ultimately approved. If you look at some categories, they are cases that are very very old and surely some of them may not be approved. A visa number is only allocated when a case is Approved, so in reality there may be fewer people in front of each of us. On the other hand, I still don't understand the logic behind setting the Visa Bulletin cut off dates....it just does not make too much of sense to me. But according to my analysis, it does appear, if the report is true, that the EB3 ROW should move a lot later this year.

[vin13]

We need to also account for Spill-over. It would be interesting to see data from October. Most of India gets approvals from spill overs than the allocated number for the country.

So the next quarter when they update this file, we should get a better feel for pending I-485 cases.


I do not understand how someone was able to file for I-485 with priority dates of 2008 and 2009 in EB-2 and EB-3 (india)??

[h1techSlave]

I have the same question regarding the data. For EB3-I, the dates went back to 19th century immediately after July 2007. So how come there are counts in 2008 and 2009?

Also, does these counts include CP folks? If not, we are still in deep shit.

As per the file listed in the USCIS link there are 8 employment based applications pending for 2009 under 2nd Preference for INDIA, I am not sure how that is possible when the dates never crossed 2007.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

[Jerrome]

It is good news that the data is as of August 25 2009. So approvals happened in the month of September are not considered for EB2 india.

(updated August 25, 2009) See the data at right side

USCIS - Questions & Answers: Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=ae853ad15c673210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

[illinois_alum]

I have the same question regarding the data. For EB3-I, the dates went back to 19th century immediately after July 2007. So how come there are counts in 2008 and 2009?

Most likely these are applicants with their spouse being from a ROW country (I have an Indian colleague in my office whose wife is from Korea and he already got his GC even though his priority date was somewhere in 2008!)


Also, does these counts include CP folks? If not, we are still in deep shit.
According to USCIS stats, CP usage is about 15% of the total number (140K)

[ivgclive]

The PDF reflects ONLY pending applications, that is already FILED.

When EB3 date in VB is moved to 2002 June, there may be another 5000 people who have not filed may file. If not in the 2002 area,

but surely when it comes to 2004/2005/2006, people are still there with approved I-140 waiting to file I-485. So the queue may have chances to only increase not decrease at any point of time.

But USCIS did finally a good thing to let everybody know what is reality instead of waiting for VB every year.

[gc_on_demand]

There will be only 25 - 20k Spill for 2010. Given that India and CHINA Eb2 can cross mid 2006.
It will take another 2 years for Eb2 to make C and then we can see Spill over to Eb3.
If economy improves and we start seeing labor approval coming Spill be going to less and creating more wait time.

Eb3 needs VISA RECAPTURE badly. Eb2 guys can wait for couple of years to get GC. but still 2-3 years in given economy is too risky. Bottom line is WE need VISA RECAPTURE in order to clean all mess.

[newbie2020]

There will be only 25 - 20k Spill for 2010. Given that India and CHINA Eb2 can cross mid 2006.
It will take another 2 years for Eb2 to make C and then we can see Spill over to Eb3.
If economy improves and we start seeing labor approval coming Spill be going to less and creating more wait time.

Eb3 needs VISA RECAPTURE badly. Eb2 guys can wait for couple of years to get GC. but still 2-3 years in given economy is too risky. Bottom line is WE need VISA RECAPTURE in order to clean all mess.

The data doesnt seem that bad at all for EB2-I/C

Here is my take based on the data

EB2 Pending apps
Row 7150
India 47728
China 19333
Phillipines 510
Mexico 211
Subtotal 74932
Add consular processing @15% = 11240
Subtotal = 86172
Reduce Historical abandonment/rejections @20% (this number can be more or less) = 17235

Grand total: 68937 Total pending apps


pending apps Visas left for spillover
EB1 40040 4050 35990
EB2 40040+35990(eb1)+
7923 (eb4)+9874(eb5)
=86056
EB3 40040
EB4 9940 2017 7923
EB5 9940 66 9874


So as you can see the number of visas available is more than the pending apps so we should zoom through 2008 or even be current by Oct 2010

Here are items not taken into consideration.
Any filings between now and Oct 2010

Now if the spillover rules are enacted only in last quarter then the dates should move really fast in last quarter, until then it will be slow and steady.

For EB3s no hope until EB2 I/C becomes current for any spillover

Give me green if you guys agree.....