Ok guys : Here total i-485's per country

[H1B-GC]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

FYI :Goto Page 5 for India

Some Greens Please !! :)

[geevikram]

Just checked the above information. It looks very good and gives me a lot of hope. Total EB2 pending is 48 K apps for India. That's not so bad. Or am'I being too hopeful?

[H1B-GC]

This is probably as close information that we can get from horses mouth(USCIS). Just hope its true.

[Leo07]

I guess we'll need to ADD to that number:
1. BEC stuck folks who could not file in July 07
2. PERM approvals starting August 07

to the 47,728. Plus multiply by 2.1( for dependents ). That'll give the total VISA numbers required for this category to make it Current.

If I have to guess-- (1) would be very less, may be 100-200 max
(2) around 5000 ( just a PUMA)
So, there are about 53000 EB2 I applications. and 2.1 * 53000 = 111300.

If we can create 111300, EB2 I visas then it'll be CURRENT. easy:)

[belmontboy]

This is probably as close information that we can get from horses mouth(USCIS). Just hope its true.

horses don't lie man

[beautifulMind]

They give away 140k per year . Shouldn't we get get GC in the next 2 years because of horizontal spill over??

Total worldwide 233k

[dilber]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

FYI :Goto Page 5 for India

Some Greens Please !! :)

If this information is correct then we are in much better shape then was being projected. what is scaring me is the number of applications that are pre 2004 the number seems to be pretty big? are these abandoned applications. Also does any one know this report is current as of when?

[beautifulMind]

I guess we'll need to ADD to that number:
1. BEC stuck folks who could not file in July 07
2. PERM approvals starting August 07

to the 47,728. Plus multiply by 2.1( for dependents ). That'll give the total VISA numbers required for this category to make it Current.

If I have to guess-- (1) would be very less, may be 100-200 max
(2) around 5000 ( just a PUMA)
So, there are about 53000 EB2 I applications. and 2.1 * 53000 = 111300.

If we can create 111300, EB2 I visas then it'll be CURRENT. easy:)



Pending applications should include dependents as they have their own 485

[ujjwal_p]

I guess we'll need to ADD to that number:
1. BEC stuck folks who could not file in July 07
2. PERM approvals starting August 07

to the 47,728. Plus multiply by 2.1( for dependents ). That'll give the total VISA numbers required for this category to make it Current.

If I have to guess-- (1) would be very less, may be 100-200 max
(2) around 5000 ( just a PUMA)
So, there are about 53000 EB2 I applications. and 2.1 * 53000 = 111300.

If we can create 111300, EB2 I visas then it'll be CURRENT. easy:)

They haven't mentioned there whether dependents are included or not. So multiplying by 2.1 is probably not correct nor wrong at this point. I would think dependents are included in this. Everybody needs to file an I-485 I presume and they are just counting the pending ones.

[maxy]

how many visas are allocated every year per country, per preference ? say INDIA EB3 ?

[coldcloud]

I guess we'll need to ADD to that number:
1. BEC stuck folks who could not file in July 07
2. PERM approvals starting August 07

to the 47,728. Plus multiply by 2.1( for dependents ). That'll give the total VISA numbers required for this category to make it Current.

If I have to guess-- (1) would be very less, may be 100-200 max
(2) around 5000 ( just a PUMA)
So, there are about 53000 EB2 I applications. and 2.1 * 53000 = 111300.

If we can create 111300, EB2 I visas then it'll be CURRENT. easy:)

I believe you dont need to multiply all of the 485 by 2.1 as already applied I485 will include the family?

[sunty]

Whats also surprising is that number of pending EB1(India) applications is far less than expected. That would definately help EB2(India) in the spill-over (quarterly or yearly)

[crazyghoda]

A basic question - Are the months that the numbers are slotted into for the Priority Dates? or are they the recept date or something else....?

If PD, then how come there are numbers for 2008 and 2009? The PD has never been current since July 2007....

[Leo07]

Living in the Pessimistic world. Dumb me.
47K + 5500*2.1 ~ 58000 visas...for EB2 I to make it current. coldcloud-> you cut short the waiting time by half ( from 10 years to 5 years? :))
I believe you dont need to multiply all of the 485 by 2.1 as already applied I485 will include the family?

[nocomment]

If these are pending 485 applications at USCIS, Number of pending applications with PD later than JUL 2007 should be zero.

If these are labor filings, they probably dont include dependents.

[hpandey]

There seem to be 19 applications from 1998 and 25 applications from 1999. I wonder how come these have not been approved in 10 years while their dates have been current almost all the time. Either these have been abdandoned or are not approvable.

I think its time for USCIS to do some cleaning up also to close applications where the applicants are no longer there , have abandoned the applications , left the country and so on. That would surely reduce some of the stuff from the queue.

[crazyghoda]

That's exactly what I wrote a few posts above. I think the more basic question is - What does 485 inventory mean? Is it already filed 485 numbers or "can be filed based on approved I-140" numbers?

To the OP: Can you provide the link from where we can open the PDF instead of just throwing the PDF open. Maybe that will provide a better context to the numbers.

If these are pending 485 applications at USCIS, Number of pending applications with PD later than JUL 2007 should be zero.

If these are labor filings, they probably dont include dependents.

[Leo07]

I-485 inventory means number of 485 apps they have received or in their DB. ( simple )
I don't think USCIS will( should ) worry about the PERM applications/140-approved applications.IMHO that' be fortune-telling business for USCIS, that so many PERM/140 approvals will directly result into so many 485 applications.

I'm know USCIS trumped us before, but If I were to bet, I'd bet that these are straight-record count off their 485 applications.

Best!

[pani_6]

So for EB-3 we have 1630 from 01, and 8300 from 02 and 12500 from 03..how long would this take to clear given EB 3 allotment??. every year??.

[belmontboy]

So for EB-3 we have 1630 from 01, and 8300 from 02 and 12500 from 03..how long would this take to clear given EB 3 allotment??. every year??.

With horizontal spillover, things don't look good for EB3-I in 2009-2010.
However, 2010-2011 things should be great for EB3-I, as EB2-I & C would be pretty close to current (or) current.

[snathan]

If these are pending 485 applications at USCIS, Number of pending applications with PD later than JUL 2007 should be zero.

If these are labor filings, they probably dont include dependents.

What if its RD and not PD...?

[prasadn]

A basic question - Are the months that the numbers are slotted into for the Priority Dates? or are they the recept date or something else....?

If PD, then how come there are numbers for 2008 and 2009? The PD has never been current since July 2007....


Questions & Answers: Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Inventory

Q: Why is the wait so long for my employment-based green card?

A: A visa must be available before a person can obtain an employment-based green card. Because more people want a green card than there are visas available, not everyone who wants a green card can get one immediately. Therefore, some people have to wait in line until a visa is available. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) gives out 140,000 employment-based visas each year. About 85% of those visas go to people seeking a green card in the United States, while about 15% go to people seeking to immigrate from abroad. Currently, about 234,000 people have employment-based adjustment of status (green card) applications pending in the United States and are waiting to get a visa. How long you wait for a visa depends on the supply and demand for your particular preference category, your priority date, and the country your visa will be charged to, usually your country of birth.

Q: How can I determine my place in line based on my priority date?

A: Your preference category, priority date, and country of origin determine your place in line for a visa. The earlier your priority date is, the closer you are to the front of the line. To better assist you in knowing your place in line, we are posting a report of our total pending inventory of applications for employment-based green cards (Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status) for those seeking to adjust status in the United States. See the “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report” link to the right. We are also posting five other reports by country of chargeability (China, India, Mexico, Philippines, and All Other Chargeability) (see the links to the right).

The “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” displays the total number of pending adjustment of status applications, per preference classification. The report shows how many pending adjustment of status (green card) applications in each preference classification have priority dates in a given month and year. You can use this chart to determine how many applicants in your preference classification have priority dates in the same month and year as your own. Also, you can determine how many applicants in your preference classification are ahead of you in line for a visa number by adding together the number of cases with an earlier priority date than your own.

The All Other Chargeability report shows how many applicants from countries other than China, India, Mexico, and the Philippines have priority dates in a given month and year. The report is broken down into separate charts for each preference classification. If you are from a country other than China, India, Mexico, or the Philippines, you can use this chart to determine how many applicants for adjustment of status in the same preference classification have a priority date in the same month and year as your own. This chart also lets you know how many applicants in the same preference classification have earlier priority dates.

Because of historically higher demand for visas from China, India, Mexico, and the Philippines, each of those countries has its own separate report. As published in the DOS Visa Bulletin, applicants from those countries will need to have earlier priority dates than like applicants from other countries to get a visa in any given month. If you are from China, India, Mexico, or the Philippines, you may want to use the report for your particular country. Your country report will show you how many applicants from the same country and preference classification have a priority date in the same month and year as your own. The report will also let you know how many applicants from the same country and preference classification have earlier priority dates.

Q: Which report should I use, the Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report or the country-specific reports?

A: All applicants for an employment-based green card may use the pending Form I-485 report to determine their place in line for a visa. Because certain countries experience higher demand than others, applicants in these “oversubscribed” countries may move forward in line more slowly than applicants in countries experiencing less demand. In other words, in order to obtain a visa, applicants in oversubscribed countries may need to have earlier priority dates than applicants in countries experiencing less demand. Applicants in oversubscribed countries may therefore want to also refer to the report for their specific country of chargeability to determine where they stand in line with other applicants from that country.

Q: What information do I need to have before using the pending Form I-485 inventory reports?

A: You need to know your priority date and your preference category to use the pending Form I-485 inventory reports. For more information on priority dates and preference categories, see the “Visa Availability & Priority Dates” and “Green Card Eligibility” links to the right.

Q: How do I read the pending I-485 inventory reports?

A: First, click on the link to the report you want to view. Once you click on the link, the report will appear and you will see a series of charts, one for each preference category. You will see that each chart has different numbers for each month and year. These numbers show how many green card applicants have priority dates in that month and year. To figure out how many applicants have earlier priority dates, add all the numbers from all the cells that correspond to earlier months.

Q: Can you tell me when I will get a visa?

A: Unfortunately, we cannot determine how long it will take for you to get a visa. However, we hope that by showing applicants with a pending Form I-485 where they stand in line to get a visa, you will get a better sense of how long it may take. We intend to update the data in these reports quarterly. By comparing newer versions of the reports with older ones, you may see that the number of applicants ahead of you has gotten smaller, and you may be able to tell how much shorter the line has become. We hope this will give you an even better sense of how long it may take for you to get a visa.

Q: Can you provide me an example of how to use the pending Form I-485 inventory charts?

A: Assume your priority date is in January 2007, your petition was approved for third preference, and you are from China. Using the Sample “Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Report,” below you will see on the third preference chart that there are 2,618 applicants with a priority date in the same month and year as your priority date.

If you want to find out how many third-preference green card applicants have an earlier priority date than yours, you will need to add all the numbers starting with the number at the beginning of the table, January 1997, and ending with the number immediately before the month and year of your own priority date, December 2006. You will see that there are 131,341 third-preference applicants who have a priority date earlier than yours.

Q: How do I know how many applicants from my country have an earlier priority date than mine?

A: Assume your priority date is in June 2005, your petition was approved for third preference, and you are from India. Using the Sample “I-485 Inventory for Individuals Born in India Report” below, you will see that there are 175 green card applicants from India with a priority date in June 2005.

To find out how many applicants born in India have an earlier priority date than yours, add all the numbers starting at January 1997 and ending at May 2005. You will see that there are 42,796 third-preference applicants from India with a priority date earlier than yours.
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[nocomment]

What if its RD and not PD...?

I am sure they are PDs ..see sudden spike in mar 2005. If it was ND or RD you would see that spike in Jul - sep 2007

[nocomment]

That's exactly what I wrote a few posts above. I think the more basic question is - What does 485 inventory mean? Is it already filed 485 numbers or "can be filed based on approved I-140" numbers?

To the OP: Can you provide the link from where we can open the PDF instead of just throwing the PDF open. Maybe that will provide a better context to the numbers.

The data says Individuals born in india, Their country of chargebility could be different?

[belmontboy]

I am sure they are PDs ..see sudden spike in mar 2005. If it was ND or RD you would see that spike in Jul - sep 2007

they are RD's not PD's

IF they were PD's we shouldnot be seeing anything after Jul 2007 [as those were the farthest PD's ever reached].

[va_dude]

The pdf with the pending numbers was created by a Rishi Lekhram, program manager at uscis, washington dc.

Rishi Lekhram - LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/rishi-lekhram/13/a08/a59)

How ironic is that.

Maybe IV ought to get hold of this guy :)

[hsbaluja]

As per my knowledge, one can't file I485 application until and unless priority date is current. How come this report is showing 485 application count of EB2 after Aug 2007 priority dates.

As per FAQ's (RED text in above post) these numbers are based on priority dates

[sunty]

Seeing this data and if USCIS and DOS follow quarterly spillover (as some mentioned that this is the law), then things look a lot better. But again, who knows...

Quarterly spillover is very important for us and we should make sure that if that is what the law intends, then USCIS/DOS follow that.

[prasadn]

they are RD's not PD's

IF they were PD's we shouldnot be seeing anything after Jul 2007 [as those were the farthest PD's ever reached].

Seems logical, but on the other hand if that were to be the case, then why isn't there a spike in June-July '07 to reflect the deluge of 485 filings?

[sunty]

As per my knowledge, one can't file I485 application until and unless priority date is current. How come this reporting is showing 485 application count of EB2 after Aug 2007 priority dates.

As per FAQ's (RED text in above post) these numbers are based on priority dates

These applicants might have married someone from a non India/China country and thus even though they were born in India, can file I485 due to a different country of chargeability

[va_dude]

i dont think you will see a spike for jul/aug 2007 because thousands of apps got filed then, but this report is based off of the PD, not the date the 485 was applied.

hope i'm making sense.

5pm.. time to check out :)

[belmontboy]

Seems logical, but on the other hand if that were to be the case, then why isn't there a spike in June-July '07 to reflect the deluge of 485 filings?

Hmm... Did all the July 07 filer's get their Receipts in the same month???

[hsbaluja]

I'm July 07 filer, Received Date is Oct 15 2007.

[sumagiri]

The total number of applications excluding EB2, EB3 are 7,653.
The total visa's per annum -> 140,000
Considering that there would be more applications during the year from non-retrogressed countries/categories ..it is evident now that there won't be more than 5K such applications. On pessimistic side even if we consider 10K such applications, The visas available for retrogressed EB2 and EB3 should be around 120K this year.
Total pending EB2 is 74,932. So EB2 should be Current for all countries this year.
EB3 should get around 40K visas this year.

Any one disagrees?

[srini1976]

The total number of applications excluding EB2, EB3 are 7,653.
The total visa's per annum -> 140,000
Considering that there would be more applications during the year from non-retrogressed countries/categories ..it is evident now that there won't be more than 5K such applications. On pessimistic side even if we consider 10K such applications, The visas available for retrogressed EB2 and EB3 should be around 120K this year.
Total pending EB2 is 74,932. So EB2 should be Current for all countries this year.
EB3 should get around 40K visas this year.

Any one disagrees?

If everything goes well(based on the numbers). Most likely you and I (including - others ahead in the line) should be GREENED by same time NEXT YEAR(Sep 2010). :D

[psaxena]

The numbers are based of the I-485 already filed. Please read the heading of the page 5


That's exactly what I wrote a few posts above. I think the more basic question is - What does 485 inventory mean? Is it already filed 485 numbers or "can be filed based on approved I-140" numbers?

To the OP: Can you provide the link from where we can open the PDF instead of just throwing the PDF open. Maybe that will provide a better context to the numbers.

[knacath]

The total number of applications excluding EB2, EB3 are 7,653.
The total visa's per annum -> 140,000
Considering that there would be more applications during the year from non-retrogressed countries/categories ..it is evident now that there won't be more than 5K such applications. On pessimistic side even if we consider 10K such applications, The visas available for retrogressed EB2 and EB3 should be around 120K this year.
Total pending EB2 is 74,932. So EB2 should be Current for all countries this year.
EB3 should get around 40K visas this year.

Any one disagrees?


I thought each EB category could get upto 28.6% of 140000 = 40000 visas every fiscal year. So if EB1 uses up 5000 and EB2 takes the remaining 35000 and its annual allotment of 40000, EB3 does not get any spillover.

Thoughts?

[immigrationmatters30]

All we need is just 233,816(page 2) visas(forget about country limit, EB category etc). In that case in 2 years we will have 280,000(140,000 * 2) visas. So should we all get GC in two years with that logic.

[sumagiri]

I thought each EB category could get upto 28.6% of 140000 = 40000 visas every fiscal year. So if EB1 uses up 5000 and EB2 takes the remaining 35000 and its annual allotment of 40000, EB3 does not get any spillover.

Thoughts?

knacath, I am hoping that EB2 will be current this year and EB3 begins to get spillover though very little this year.

Some more specifics

Annual Quota ------------------------------------------------------------------------> 140,000
Pending EB1, EB4, EB5----------------------------------------------------------------> 7,653
Estimate of all categories current applied this year and approved this year -----> 10,000
Remaining visas -----------------------------------------------------------------------> 122,347
All pending EB2s (includes retrogressed) -------------------------------------------> 74932
Remaining visas available to EB3(includes retrogressed) --------------------------> 47415

The only flaw in above is ignoring CP and assuming all 140K Quota to AOS. The majority of EB1, EB2 and EB3 are AOS. So I am safely ignoring CP. Even if CP is 15% of annual quota as some one put it, EB3 gets its allocated 40K quota and around 65K pending EB2s get out of queue.

[pani_6]

Is 28.6% india Quota??. out of the 140K

I thought each EB category could get upto 28.6% of 140000 = 40000 visas every fiscal year. So if EB1 uses up 5000 and EB2 takes the remaining 35000 and its annual allotment of 40000, EB3 does not get any spillover.

Thoughts?

[sumagiri]

All we need is just 233,816(page 2) visas(forget about country limit, EB category etc). In that case in 2 years we will have 280,000(140,000 * 2) visas. So should we all get GC in two years with that logic.

Even if we add the flow of application from 'Current' categoreis, your statement still holds true.

[vbkris77]

knacath, I am hoping that EB2 will be current this year and EB3 begins to get spillover though very little this year.

Some more specifics

Annual Quota ------------------------------------------------------------------------> 140,000
Pending EB1, EB4, EB5----------------------------------------------------------------> 7,653
Estimate of all categories current applied this year and approved this year -----> 10,000
Remaining visas -----------------------------------------------------------------------> 122,347
All pending EB2s (includes retrogressed) -------------------------------------------> 74932
Remaining visas available to EB3(includes retrogressed) --------------------------> 47415

The only flaw in above is ignoring CP and assuming all 140K Quota to AOS. The majority of EB1, EB2 and EB3 are AOS. So I am safely ignoring CP. Even if CP is 15% of annual quota as some one put it, EB3 gets its allocated 40K quota and around 65K pending EB2s get out of queue.

I agree that it should be current. But knowing CIS ability to process, Shouldn't we ask DoS to move date of EB2 and make them current. So that the CIS will not waste them. They wasted earlier, So they can do it again.

It takes an year if not 2 for them to clear the new I485s. I don't anticipate many. But there will be some..

[gc_buddy]

But, woudn't the 75% of 140K quota for next two years be consumed by ROW applicants who are about to apply. Becoz they are current wouldn't the VISA number go to them..

All the above calculations I guess are assuming that the entire 140K will be given the pending 485 application..May be I am missing something.

Even if we add the flow of application from 'Current' categoreis, your statement still holds true.

[shreekhand]

They have not wasted since the last 2 years and will not do so now. They have learned many things to avoid that now !

[shreekhand]

Precisely.... many are jumping the gun and are merrily thinking things will be current by 2010 !!

But, woudn't the 75% of 140K quota for next two years be consumed by ROW applicants who are about to apply. Becoz they are current wouldn't the VISA number go to them..

All the above calculations I guess are assuming that the entire 140K will be given the pending 485 application..May be I am missing something.

[vbkris77]

But, woudn't the 75% of 140K quota for next two years be consumed by ROW applicants who are about to apply. Becoz they are current wouldn't the VISA number go to them..

All the above calculations I guess are assuming that the entire 140K will be given the pending 485 application..May be I am missing something.

It is economy. DOL vitually halted PERM approvals. Companies are not sponsering GCs as they used. If you give an Ad today, you will get 10 times resumes. So there is no easy way to get an approval.

[ujjwal_p]

It is economy. DOL vitually halted PERM approvals. Companies are not sponsering GCs as they used. If you give an Ad today, you will get 10 times resumes. So there is no easy way to get an approval.

I think we are assuming that this will continue to be the case through Oct 2010. What if DOL changes policies with PERM approval tomorrow or the economy starts improving by March? EB2 ROW is current and there will be quite a few PERM's from them which will be adjusted immediately. We'll have to wait till the Sep results are in and the data is adjusted with 2005 EB2 numbers. Hopefully all < 2005 should be taken care of for EB2.

[vbkris77]

I think we are assuming that this will continue to be the case through Oct 2010. What if DOL changes policies with PERM approval tomorrow or the economy starts improving by March? EB2 ROW is current and there will be quite a few PERM's from them which will be adjusted immediately. We'll have to wait till the Sep results are in and the data is adjusted with 2005 EB2 numbers. Hopefully all < 2005 should be taken care of for EB2.

Source OH law firm immigration-law.com

09/23/2009: Official PERM Labor Certification Application Processing Times as of 09/30/2009

U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Foreign Labor Certification has just released the current processing time of permanent labor certification applications as of the end of this month. The date represents the date the applications were first filed, which is also called priority date.
Final Reviews (Clean Cut Cases): December 2008
Audit Cases: October 2007
Standard Appeal Cases: August 2007
Gov't Error Appeal Cases: Current
The last four-month processing times confirm that even though its FY 2010 (10/01/2009-09/30/2011) budget proposal estimated that the PERM processing times would be nine (9) months, actually the nine-month processing time started in the second-half of FY 2009. Accordingly, the employers hiring permanent foreign workers must understand that at least for the next one year, processing times of PERM applications will not improve and should learn to live with it and plan accordingly in their recruitment and hiring practices. Foreign workers should also take the delayed processing times of permanent labor certification application in their journeys in nonimmigrant status, on top of the State Department's predicted visa number problems coming year.

[gvenkat]

we have a total of 48,000 eb-2 and 68,000 EB-3 i would think this number includes the Spouses,children etc. so all it needs is 120,000 visa numbers am i right? SO based on that what are the hopes for EB3-I in the next year or so

[gvenkat]

All we need is just 233,816(page 2) visas(forget about country limit, EB category etc). In that case in 2 years we will have 280,000(140,000 * 2) visas. So should we all get GC in two years with that logic.

If only USCIS can think along those lines. :confused:

[pani_6]

Yes I am curious to know where eb-3 would be next year last quater

If only USCIS can think along those lines. :confused:

[gvenkat]

Yes I am curious to know where eb-3 would be next year last quater

If there are 62K Eb-3 India applications I'm sure no one can file anything for Eb-3 what stops USCIS from clearing these.. This Data is flawed or If we are reading this wrong

[hibworker]

What stops USCIS is the per country cap. They can only issue so many visas to EB-3 I.

[wantgc23]

Something is screwed up.....

Mexico has over 2000 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is May 1st 2001
India has less 500 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is Apr 15 2001
This along with CIS giving "bad/incorrect" data to IV is indication of someone's malicious intentions.

...



Indeed very interesting ...

[gvenkat]

What stops USCIS is the per country cap. They can only issue so many visas to EB-3 I.

What is the per country cap for India?

[patiently_waiting]

These Numbers are based on the Priority dates of the applicants who filed their Labor.

If you look into the India Category for EB2 and EB3 for July 2007, The Number of Applications filed as per the document are both 1655 and 893 respectively. During July 2007, the dates for EB2-I and EB3-I are current, the USCIS is bombarded with the applications.

I think the Document shows the applicants who started their green card (labor) process.

Thanks

[qasleuth]

Trying to wrap my head around 245i cases. All primary applicants you were physically present in the US on Dec 21, 2000 were eligible to file 485 before April 2001 (with approved labor + approvable 140). Spouses and children of those primary applicants who were not in the country have to apply using CP. So the data provided by USCIS does not contain all those CP applicants. BUT as the dates were current till 2004, USCIS/DOS HAD to know the exact number per country as consulates have to report CP applicant numbers. The only possibility for the discrepancy you mention is that USCIS horribly screwed up and we may have hundreds of CP applicants who are derivatives of 245i. Conspiracy theory ?? LOL. Man, we have to just laugh at our plight.

No racism intended here but historically speaking number of immigrants from Mexico/Caribbean/China probably had more numbers in 245i than India. So, you question remains interesting inspite of the CP applicants possibility I mention above.

Something is screwed up.....

Mexico has over 2000 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is May 1st 2001
India has less 500 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is Apr 15 2001
This along with CIS giving "bad/incorrect" data to IV is indication of someone's malicious intentions.

I appreciate IV's effort in getting FOIA executed and now working on aftermath of it.

For people who are angered with whats been going on in last couple of days. All I can say is to try volunteering for IV even for a month.

[gc_wow]

If EB2 row perm hits 10000 apps thats it pd wont move a bit. That will happen as soon as hiring starts again. This will happen any time, if this not happen until sep 2010, then EB2 has a chance. There are about 15000 (approx) EB2 Row apps siiting ducks in Perm centers, if ROW PErm eb2 approvals start flowing then we are just stuck. It all depends on EB2 Row Now. That is the one we need to watch closely.

[Saralayar]

how many visas are allocated every year per country, per preference ? say INDIA EB3 ?
No one is answering for this question in this forum. It makes one to think that no one bothers about EB3 guys.:(

[nocomment]

I hope these numbers didn't include septembers approvals. Does this report come out every month?

[sumagiri]

If EB2 row perm hits 10000 apps thats it pd wont move a bit. That will happen as soon as hiring starts again. This will happen any time, if this not happen until sep 2010, then EB2 has a chance. There are about 15000 (approx) EB2 Row apps siiting ducks in Perm centers, if ROW PErm eb2 approvals start flowing then we are just stuck. It all depends on EB2 Row Now. That is the one we need to watch closely.

Any idea how many ROW EB3 pending in PERM?

[gc_wow]

I have read on USCIS web site that it is a quarterly report, this strange report do not have a date on it saying when it was generated. If it is a quarterly report I dont understand why they ran it in the middle of a quarter? This report should be run at the end of the quarter. Not in 1600AD what USCIS considers to be 2009.

[qasleuth]

No one is answering for this question in this forum. It makes one to think that no one bothers about EB3 guys.:(

huh ? You cannot google ? Let us know if you need help with the math.

Employment-Based Visas (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html#third)

7 % country limit.

[gc_wow]

EB3 has a significant drop, Most of ROw applicants are filing in EB2 these days thus offsetting any significant advantage in filing EB2. EB3 will be faster comapred to EB2 some time between 2014-2015, EB3 still gets 40000 of quota.

[amsgc]

Dude - it clearly says the data was updated Aug 25, 2009
Look here (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=5e170e6bcb7e3210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=ae853ad15c673210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

I have read on USCIS web site that it is a quarterly report, this strange report do not have a date on it saying when it was generated. If it is a quarterly report I dont understand why they ran it in the middle of a quarter? This report should be run at the end of the quarter. Not in 1600AD what USCIS considers to be 2009.

[nocomment]

Any guesses on number of approvals so far this month? has about 450 which i think is only a fraction of actual number

[gc_wow]

May be it was updated on the website on 25th Aug 09, System date should be present on the report, Report with out date on it is meaning less, I hope the USCIS IT team will understand that, I dont understand what kind of reporting specialists USCIS hires, that is a fundamental thing USCIS should know, Report should have a system time stamp on it saying when it was generated.

[naveenpratapsingh]

I guess we'll need to ADD to that number:
1. BEC stuck folks who could not file in July 07
2. PERM approvals starting August 07

to the 47,728. Plus multiply by 2.1( for dependents ). That'll give the total VISA numbers required for this category to make it Current.

If I have to guess-- (1) would be very less, may be 100-200 max
(2) around 5000 ( just a PUMA)
So, there are about 53000 EB2 I applications. and 2.1 * 53000 = 111300.

If we can create 111300, EB2 I visas then it'll be CURRENT. easy:)

I do not think you need to multiply 2.1 tp 47728. So it could be max 53,000

[sunty]

Maybe FOIA request by IV was one of the main causes for this data to be posted on the USCIS website. USCIS thought that since the cat is out of the bag anyways, why not make the data public as part of the redesign effort of the USCIS website.

If the data provided to IV on the Donor forum matches with that of the USCIS site, there might be some other details in the IV report that can give us a better picture.

[bikram_das_in]

Has anybody calculated how many spill over visa numbers will available from 2009?

[looivy]

If USCIS recaptures lost visas (estimated to be in the range 300k-600k), all of us will be current. IV should start a drive to push for the recapture ....even if it is partial, it would help everybody in a big way.

[cableching]

If EB2 row perm hits 10000 apps thats it pd wont move a bit. That will happen as soon as hiring starts again. This will happen any time, if this not happen until sep 2010, then EB2 has a chance. There are about 15000 (approx) EB2 Row apps siiting ducks in Perm centers, if ROW PErm eb2 approvals start flowing then we are just stuck. It all depends on EB2 Row Now. That is the one we need to watch closely.

Even if the economy improves, it will take some time to plan the recruitment, then hiring people and then they will take sometime to start the PERM process and then filing it and getting the approval. FOr all these things to happen, it will be a minimum of one year ad even it may cross two years. Don't bother too much about this.

I prefer the economy to improve over getting GC, if economy is good we will not have to worry about getting a Job if laid off and also, if we have EAD we can change jobs easily and many of the problems without the GC are not that siginificant then.

[ksvreg]

Just curious, how come there are some pending aplications in the year 2008 and 2009 where there were no VISA BULLETIN with those years. How they filed without Bulleting entries? Got point? or Am I missing some thing?

[Honda]

No one is answering for this question in this forum. It makes one to think that no one bothers about EB3 guys.:(

Exactly you are right. Right now they are concentrating on EB2 only. Once the EB2 becomes Current all the visas are rollover to EB3.

[BharatPremi]

What is the per country cap for India?

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

[brahmam]

Super news for every body. Assuming 0 approvals in September :p

only 4000 EB1 pending; even if all of them are approved, and with 1000 more in 2010, we have 30,000 EB1 rolling over to EB2. ROW EB2 quota ~ 25,000. pending eb2 row = 7150. even if we have 15,000 more approved in 2010, eb2 row consumes 22,000 and the remaining supply = 33,000 which can go to china, india, mexico and philippines.

mexico and philippines, eb2 is minimal .. maybe 700. so all of 32,000 needs to go to India and china. I dont know how the split will be here. if it is equal and china gets 16,000 they move to mid 2007 easily and India moves to Apr 2006.

However, we know the calculations wont be this precise and cut-off will move to 2007 in Aug 2010 which is when all the lucky bums will get approvals left and right.

QED :D

[Honda]

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.


Excellent Analysis.

[gc_on_demand]

There will be only 25 - 20k Spill for 2010. Given that India and CHINA Eb2 can cross mid 2006.
It will take another 2 years for Eb2 to make C and then we can see Spill over to Eb3.
If economy improves and we start seeing labor approval coming Spill be going to less and creating more wait time.

Eb3 needs VISA RECAPTURE badly. Eb2 guys can wait for couple of years to get GC. but still 2-3 years in given economy is too risky. Bottom line is WE need VISA RECAPTURE in order to clean all mess.

[gvenkat]

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

So per your theory 8008 people who filed in Eb3 should get approved which should bring it to 2003? for EB3-I by end of year? :rolleyes:

[gc28262]

Something is screwed up.....

Mexico has over 2000 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is May 1st 2001
India has less 500 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is Apr 15 2001
This along with CIS giving "bad/incorrect" data to IV is indication of someone's malicious intentions.

I appreciate IV's effort in getting FOIA executed and now working on aftermath of it.

For people who are angered with whats been going on in last couple of days. All I can say is to try volunteering for IV even for a month.

The missing link is Consular Processing cases pending under DOS.

[sameer2730]

So per your theory 8008 people who filed in Eb3 should get approved which should bring it to 2003? for EB3-I by end of year? :rolleyes:

EB3 india gets only 2803 per year with350 of those going to OW. How did you arrive at the figure.

[gvenkat]

EB3 india gets only 2803 per year with350 of those going to OW. How did you arrive at the figure.

based on the other person's analysis. if 2803 is what Eb-3 gets then we are fcuked. :p

[wantgc23]

Bharatpremi,

Thanks for the excellent analysis. One question, your analysis assumes category excess visas goto next category on a per country basis, is this correct ?

Example, EB-1 china number goto EB-2 China ? I thought all EB-1 China numbers are added to the excess pool and then given to most retrogressed EB2 category ?

Thanks for anyone who clarifies this.

No matter how the data is sliced and diced, being EB3-I certainly means a loo...ong wait time ... :)

[gc_wow]

Is there any way to find if state department will do a quarterly spill over? What is the law around this? How to get this fixed?

[gvenkat]

Bharatpremi,

Thanks for the excellent analysis. One question, your analysis assumes category excess visas goto next category on a per country basis, is this correct ?

Example, EB-1 china number goto EB-2 China ? I thought all EB-1 China numbers are added to the excess pool and then given to most retrogressed EB2 category ?

Thanks for anyone who clarifies this.

No matter how the data is sliced and diced, being EB3-I certainly means a loo...ong wait time ... :)

Well if you are EB3 you are scrwed. I think it's almost worthless waiting for a GC. :mad:

[Edison99]

Thanks BharatPremi for your great analysis and honored to give one green today! :)

[adusumilli]

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

How did you come up with dividing by 5 that is like 20% per country. isn't the cap 7% per country?

[pani_6]

uscis has deleted the link

[nmdial]

The link is still there: (if you meant the pending list)
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/3rd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Children)/Green%20Card%20-%203rd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I485%20Reports.pdf

[Chris Rock]

You guys need to learn the basic rules of EB visa allocation

1) All EB categories need to worry about current backlog. EB3 India only need to worry about current backlog and future backlog. If more people file visa in 2 years, EB3-India will be in hot soup.

2) Eb3 India is at the bottom of the food chain. It will get visa only after every other category is current.

EB3 I getting spill over numbers depends on many factors. If atleast one factor goes wrong then EB3I will be in soup again.

When dates become current lots of people with approved 140 will file 485 and do you know who will be affected most? EB3 India

When you do your calculation add this on top of your equation.

[BharatPremi]

So per your theory 8008 people who filed in Eb3 should get approved which should bring it to 2003? for EB3-I by end of year? :rolleyes:

Next september 2010 EB3-I PD will be still stuck at September 2002, at the most October 2002.

[dskhabra]

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

One point, as we are seeing horizontal spill over for the last couple of years...so numbers unused in EB2 ROW will go to EB2 I and EB2 C not to EB3 ROW

So in your calculation ALL EB2 ROW/Philippines/Mexico unused VISA numbers should be spilled over to EB2I and EB2C not to EB3 ROW/Philippines/Mexico.

[eyeswe]

I asked this question several times on all the threads that are discussing the new USCIS data, but no one seems to be answering this, but I think it is important to make sure this wrinkle is sorted out...

When they say inventory of 485 apps.. by any chance does it mean only the 485 that has been pre-adjudicated? I wish that was not the case.. but these numbers are too small to believe otherwise.. I hope one of the doctors in USCIS VB Theory (and I know there are a whole lot of them here on this forum) can sort this doubt quickly by throwing some nice logic.. But I would like to hear that so I am convinced with the quality of thi spread sheet.

[psaxena]

THe reason USCIS is showing low numbers for the reason that , no one will then raise the question for recpature. Looking at the numbers they will say, O, the numbers are so low, whats the need for recapture and we will be left hanging cold and dry.

This is a plot of a well planned strategy.

Something is screwed up.....

Mexico has over 2000 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is May 1st 2001
India has less 500 cases in April 2001 yet its PD is Apr 15 2001
This along with CIS giving "bad/incorrect" data to IV is indication of someone's malicious intentions.

I appreciate IV's effort in getting FOIA executed and now working on aftermath of it.

For people who are angered with whats been going on in last couple of days. All I can say is to try volunteering for IV even for a month.

[BharatPremi]

How did you come up with dividing by 5 that is like 20% per country. isn't the cap 7% per country?

You are not reading it correctly. Pleasse read it again.

[rajsenthil]

This maths makes good sense. Thanks for your time for preparing this and posting it.

28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
11784 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
8033 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
over to EB3.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
Total 10924 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
year 2011 with pending approval.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.

Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
11374 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
pending for year 2011.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
and pushed to year 2011.

Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
Total 11692 will go to EB2
4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
EB3 category.
5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
of other countries.


TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.

[snathan]

THe reason USCIS is showing low numbers for the reason that , no one will then raise the question for recpature. Looking at the numbers they will say, O, the numbers are so low, whats the need for recapture and we will be left hanging cold and dry.

This is a plot of a well planned strategy.

So the question araise is why the dates are not moving or not current?

[sidbee]

THe reason USCIS is showing low numbers for the reason that , no one will then raise the question for recpature. Looking at the numbers they will say, O, the numbers are so low, whats the need for recapture and we will be left hanging cold and dry.

This is a plot of a well planned strategy.

I don't think you should be drawing conclusions , or thinking of conspiracy theories.

[BharatPremi]

[QUOTE=eyeswe;960064]I asked this question several times on all the threads that are discussing the new USCIS data, but no one seems to be answering this, but I think it is important to make sure this wrinkle is sorted out...

When they say inventory of 485 apps.. by any chance does it mean only the 485 that has been pre-adjudicated? I wish that was not the case.. but these numbers are too small to believe otherwise.. I hope one of the doctors in USCIS VB Theory (and I know there are a whole lot of them here on this forum) can sort this doubt quickly by throwing some nice logic.. But I would like to hear that so I am convinced with the quality of thi spread sheet.


';
'

'\\

Agreed. These numbers do not seem to be real load. At the time of July Fiasco as per USCIS's own notification total more than 250000 EB based 485 were filed and more than 350000 family based 485 were filed.I am quoting this based on memory so it may be possible that this quot is not 11% accurate may have some variation at that time but it is not completely wrong.

[BharatPremi]

This maths makes good sense. Thanks for your time for preparing this and posting it.

Thanks.

[BharatPremi]

Thanks BharatPremi for your great analysis and honored to give one green today! :)

Thank You sir for giving me a "Green" :)

[vijayrudra]

Good analysis.

[BharatPremi]

Bharatpremi,

Thanks for the excellent analysis. One question, your analysis assumes category excess visas goto next category on a per country basis, is this correct ?

Ans: Yes. In reality nobody is sure how USCIS is spilling over, vertical way, the way which I have assumed here OR horizontal way as per your belief OR combination of both.
Example, EB-1 china number goto EB-2 China ? I thought all EB-1 China numbers are added to the excess pool and then given to most retrogressed EB2 category ?

Thanks for anyone who clarifies this.

No matter how the data is sliced and diced, being EB3-I certainly means a loo...ong wait time ... :) yes , agreed. No matter how you slice or dice, EB3-I is and will always be "Sautan Ke Chhore" (Step Sons/daughters):)

[BharatPremi]

Excellent Analysis.

Thanks.

[nuke]

Analysis by BharatPremi is wrong.
If there are 140K visas then EB3 category will get 140,000%28.7 = 40180
and of these 40180 EB3 India will get just 40180%7= 2812

Folks, only 2812 Visas for EB3 India and EB3 is not going to get any spillover this year!!

[485Mbe4001]

You are correct, EB 3 I has less than 3k visas available. I have confirmed the number on Greg Siskinds blog. There is minor problem with BharatPremi's analysis. EB3 I's... we really need to do something about recapture. There will be no spillover available for EB3-I till 2012.

Analysis by BharatPremi is wrong.
If there are 140K visas then EB3 category will get 140,000%28.7 = 40180
and of these 40180 EB3 India will get just 40180%7= 2812

Folks, only 2812 Visas for EB3 India and EB3 is not going to get any spillover this year!!

[BharatPremi]

Analysis by BharatPremi is wrong.
If there are 140K visas then EB3 category will get 140,000%28.7 = 40180
and of these 40180 EB3 India will get just 40180%7= 2812

Folks, only 2812 Visas for EB3 India and EB3 is not going to get any spillover this year!!

You are wrongly mixing "country limit 7 %" into a "category limit 28.6%". Please read visa bulletin content.

[485Mbe4001]

I pray that your analysis is correct :)

someone had posted the following on Gotcher's blog
"I got this info from a source that for FY 2009, EB-3 India only used 2224 visa numbers and EB-3 china used only 1027 visa numbers. EB-3 Mexico used 3752, EB-3 Philipine used 5268, EB-3 ROW used 25081 visa numbers respectively. Total EB-3 visa nubmers used in FY 09 is 37352."

total 140,000
per country limit 140,000 * .07
per country per category comes to ~3k each

Important update on visa cutoff date movement - Page 2 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/9117-important-update-on-visa-cutoff-date-movement-2.html)


You are wrongly mixing "country limit 7 %" into a "category limit 28.6%". Please read visa bulletin content.

[JaiHo]

If there are 140K visas then EB3 category will get 140,000%28.7 = 40180
NACARA program = 40180-5000=35180

(refer Visa Bulletin October 2009 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4575.html)
Employment Third Preference Other Workers Category: Section 203(e) of the NACARA, as amended by Section 1(e) of Pub. L. 105-139, provides that once the Employment Third Preference Other Worker (EW) cut-off date has reached the priority date of the latest EW petition approved prior to November 19, 1997, the 10,000 EW numbers available for a fiscal year are to be reduced by up to 5,000 annually beginning in the following fiscal year. This reduction is to be made for as long as necessary to offset adjustments under the NACARA program. Since the EW cut-off date reached November 19, 1997 during Fiscal Year 2001, the reduction in the EW annual limit to 5,000 began in Fiscal Year 2002)

deduct 15% for consular processing = 29903

again consider 5 different Chargeability Areas
such as CHINA mainland born, INDIA, MEXICO, PHILIP-PINES and rest = 29903/5= 5980

Worst case scenario, USCIS will have 5980 visas available for FY 2010.
Now, if you compare data published by USCIS on pending cases can we guess
we should see forward movement for EB3I at least July-2002 by end of FY 2010 ?

Is it fair assessment?

[indyanguy]

Since the forecast is EB2-I will be current in a few years. Does that mean that someone with a PD of 2009 (EB2) would get the GC faster than someone with a PD of 2004 (EB3)?

[485Mbe4001]

no...
You are assuming that the spillover from remaining countries in EB3 will be allocated to EB3 I/C/P/M. The spillover rules that changed in 2007 will ensure that those visas will first go to E1 -> EB2 and then fall to us if there is an overflow. Unfortunately that will not happen because there are many retrogressed individuals in EB2 and they will get the visas first.

If there are 140K visas then EB3 category will get 140,000%28.7 = 40180
NACARA program = 40180-5000=35180

(refer Visa Bulletin October 2009 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4575.html)
Employment Third Preference Other Workers Category: Section 203(e) of the NACARA, as amended by Section 1(e) of Pub. L. 105-139, provides that once the Employment Third Preference Other Worker (EW) cut-off date has reached the priority date of the latest EW petition approved prior to November 19, 1997, the 10,000 EW numbers available for a fiscal year are to be reduced by up to 5,000 annually beginning in the following fiscal year. This reduction is to be made for as long as necessary to offset adjustments under the NACARA program. Since the EW cut-off date reached November 19, 1997 during Fiscal Year 2001, the reduction in the EW annual limit to 5,000 began in Fiscal Year 2002)

deduct 15% for consular processing = 29903

again consider 5 different Chargeability Areas
such as CHINA mainland born, INDIA, MEXICO, PHILIP-PINES and rest = 29903/5= 5980

Worst case scenario, USCIS will have 5980 visas available for FY 2010.
Now, if you compare data published by USCIS on pending cases can we guess
we should see forward movement for EB3I at least July-2002 by end of FY 2010 ?

Is it fair assessment?

[Caliber]

Since the forecast is EB2-I will be current in a few years. Does that mean that someone with a PD of 2009 (EB2) would get the GC faster than someone with a PD of 2004 (EB3)?

Unfortunately YES.

[eyeswe]

Yes , I did see that, but at what point do they consider this as "inventory" -- waiting for visa having pre-adjudicated (gosh, I hope not!) or as we all are thinking -- applications that have reached the agency...


Inventory and related QA is available on right habd side of this link,
USCIS - Green Card (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=ae853ad15c673210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=ae853ad15c673210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD)

Go to USCIS.gov --> Green card and on right hand top side Inventory and Q&A posted.

Inventory means total Number of Employment based Pending Approvals.

[pointlesswait]

I thought Eb4 and EB5 categories had expired..>?????

or was that some rumor


Yes , I did see that, but at what point do they consider this as "inventory" -- waiting for visa having pre-adjudicated (gosh, I hope not!) or as we all are thinking -- applications that have reached the agency...

[nuke]

Current visa bulletin states following.

2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

Question: What does the line 'Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620.' means???

[JaiHo]

I am not considering any spill over etc...

here is what says on visa bulletin
Visa Bulletin October 2009 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4575.html)

The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES

First: Priority Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required for fourth and fifth preferences.

Second: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required by first preference.

Third: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide level, plus any numbers not required by first and second
preferences, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".


worldwide level = 140000
EB3 = 28.6% of 140000

can you please clarify ?


no...
You are assuming that the spillover from remaining countries in EB3 will be allocated to EB3 I/C/P/M. The spillover rules that changed in 2007 will ensure that those visas will first go to E1 -> EB2 and then fall to us if there is an overflow. Unfortunately that will not happen because there are many retrogressed individuals in EB2 and they will get the visas first.

[ncrtpMay2004]

There are 37275 applications with PD of 2004 or earlier. Can we make an assumption that about 20 to 30% of these would try to port once economy turns around in the next 18 to 24 months? How will this impact wait time for a EB2 with PD Jan 2006?

I am really disappointed in the info provided via the foia effort. It told me that there are only 4118 applications before me. 4118 vs 28074. Worst kind of sick joke.

Based on the PD on my 140 Approval Notice (May-2004) there are 28074 applications before me. This is the correct date.
Based on the PD on my 485 Interview Notice (Aug-2007) there are 53192 applications before me.

I do not know how my application was counted when the data was put together.

[ashshef]

You can't divide the quota into 5 categories. Any country is capped at 7% usage(unless there's a spillover). The ROW EB3 will definitely consume more than the X/5 as it is not a country but a collection of countries, with no country reaching the 7% limit. The only reason there are separate categories in for India, China, Philipines, Mexico are that they are the only countries with demand for more than 7% of the numbers in EB3. In case of EB2, it's only India and China needing more than 7%.


P.S. I did give you a green for the great work you did with the numbers.

[bigboy007]

There are 37275 applications with PD of 2004 or earlier. Can we make an assumption that about 20 to 30% of these would try to port once economy turns around in the next 18 to 24 months? How will this impact wait time for a EB2 with PD Jan 2006?

I am really disappointed in the info provided via the foia effort. It told me that there are only 4118 applications before me. 4118 vs 28074. Worst kind of sick joke.

Based on the PD on my 140 Approval Notice (May-2004) there are 28074 applications before me. This is the correct date.
Based on the PD on my 485 Interview Notice (Aug-2007) there are 53192 applications before me.

I do not know how my application was counted when the data was put together.
How come you have two PD's ? are you refering to RD ?

[bigboy007]

Thats great work on Numbers...

[vin13]

Good Job by 'BharatPremi' on the analysis.

I believe it is horizontal spillover and not vertical spillover. I think it makes a huge difference for EB-2 on how the spillover is calculated.

Its a great start to analyze with some numbers rather than the predictions based on wish.

[485Mbe4001]

you are partially correct about this statement worldwide level = 140000 & EB3 = 28.6% of

but there is another rules that screws us

per country limit is 7% of the total, hence

140,000 * 0.07 = 9800 per country limit
9800/3 = 3266.66 per category if we assume that there are 3 categories. If we include EB4 & 5 the number is less than 3k per country. I think that this number is more accurate because most of the other blogs mention the fact that EB3 1 will get maximum of 3k per year if there is no spillover. My PD will be current if they set 5.5k per country for EB3 I, having been stuck in every step of this !@#!@ process i feel that the number will be around 2.8 (consular processing etc).


I am not considering any spill over etc...

here is what says on visa bulletin
Visa Bulletin October 2009 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4575.html)

The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.

EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES

First: Priority Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required for fourth and fifth preferences.

Second: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required by first preference.

Third: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide level, plus any numbers not required by first and second
preferences, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".


worldwide level = 140000
EB3 = 28.6% of 140000

can you please clarify ?

[BharatPremi]

"7% country speciific limit for primary applicants" and "2% country specific dependent limit" is mentioned in every bulletin published so far and so actually it is 9% limit - country specific together.

But question is " what is the meaning of it?" and "How to read it?"

Now the tables what are published in bulletin and we smash our heads daily on them are meant for "Visa number availability" not for "Physical Green card orderering".

So numbers (28.6% divided by 5 per each preference-country) are meant for USCIS to process and assign visa numbers till that limit reached.

"7% + 2%" country specific limit is meant for "Sending Greencard /Ordering Greencard".

In simplest form, EB-I will have 8008 X 3 (Without spilied over) = 24024 applications assigned Visa number this year and out of that ( 9% X 140000 = 12600) lucky ones will get their physical green cards THIS YEAR. The rest will get their physical green cards next year though their files have been assigned numbers (Pre-adjudicated.) this year.

Above mentioned explanation is the real meaning of this bullshit.

calculating and interpreting 0.07 x 0.286 for particular country is a wrong concept and I know millions of us follow that in their analysis and arguments but that is completely wrong.

[sparky_jones]

Without legislative or administrative reform, EB3-India would be reduced merely to a mechanism which folks would use to extend their H1Bs indefinitely on the basis of the underlying I-140, or a means to lock a priority date while they plan their strategy for an EB-2 petition for a PD port in the future. As some analysts have predicted, EB3-India wait times might get extended to decades without some sort of reform. Not to make light of the situation, but for an EB3-I applicant with a recent PD, the odds of getting a green card through a US-born child (once they turn 21) could become greater than through their own EB application.

[BharatPremi]

Without legislative or administrative reform, EB3-India would be reduced merely to a mechanism which folks would use to extend their H1Bs indefinitely on the basis of the underlying I-140, or a means to lock a priority date while they plan their strategy for an EB-2 petition for a PD port in the future. As some analysts have predicted, EB3-India wait times might get extended to decades without some sort of reform. Not to make light of the situation, but for an EB3-I applicant with a recent PD, the odds of getting a green card through a US-born child (once they turn 21) could become greater than through their own EB application.

"interfiling" to use old EB3 PD for new EB2 is not the easiest path for EB3-I guys specially if they have used AC21 and work on EAD now ( Most of us are in this category). Priority date porting is not an issue, USCIS does not have a problem with that. The problem is with "Job definition and level". While one use AC21 claims job position matching EB3 job classification and if there no enough progression gap between AC21 usage and "inerfiling" It becomes hard for a lawyer to convince USCIS that fellow is matching EB2 capability under same job classification. Hundred of such intefilings are waiting without no action from USCIS. My lawyer's advice wait till we logically can establish the skill progression, in other words minimum 3 years of wait from the day AC21 usage. And other important thing is "real promotion" in position should happen at employment and this whole explanation is based on assumption of employment at the same employer. If you change employment inbetween after AC21 usage and before interfiling , your 3 years wait cycle starts from new emploment date. I have not filed "interfiling" just because of these reasons and waiting for correct time to do that. In other words Eb3-I is really and badly screwed.

[ashshef]

"7% country speciific limit for primary applicants" and "2% country specific dependent limit" is mentioned in every bulletin published so far and so actually it is 9% limit - country specific together.

But question is " what is the meaning of it?" and "How to read it?"

Now the tables what are published in bulletin and we smash our heads daily on them are meant for "Visa number availability" not for "Physical Green card orderering".

So numbers (28.6% divided by 5 per each preference-country) are meant for USCIS to process and assign visa numbers till that limit reached.

"7% + 2%" country specific limit is meant for "Sending Greencard /Ordering Greencard".

In simplest form, EB-I will have 8008 X 3 (Without spilied over) = 24024 applications assigned Visa number this year and out of that ( 9% X 140000 = 12600) lucky ones will get their physical green cards THIS YEAR. The rest will get their physical green cards next year though their files have been assigned numbers (Pre-adjudicated.) this year.

Above mentioned explanation is the real meaning of this bullshit.

calculating and interpreting 0.07 x 0.286 for particular country is a wrong concept and I know millions of us follow that in their analysis and arguments but that is completely wrong.

I don't get how you are getting the 8008 figure. Based on the 9%, you are right about the cap for any country being 12,600 for all EB categories combined.
Pre-adjudication has nothing to do with country quota. And 'assigning a number' is still based on country quota. With all the pre-adjudication, it is likely that 'assigned numbers' = GC approvals. The 'assigned numbers' concept was a lot more relevant till last year, when they had numbers, but still had to 'process' the applications. Now most applications seem to have been 'pre-processed'(pre-adjudicated)

I do appreciate your work. Just trying to help achieve a more accurate figure.

[nuke]

According to the report Mexico EB3 has 2240 pending cases till the end of 2001
and India EB3 has 1630 pending cases till the end of 2001

Then according to current visa bulletin why does PD for India way behind Mexico???
and even China is behind Mexico when they have only 108 pending cases till end of 2001.

Something is wrong with the numbers or they mean something else??

[Jerrome]

All the calculations are based on the following assumptions

a)Number of EB2(ROW) Labor approval from PERM would be in the range of thousands, say maximum 5000.
The reasons are
1) Increased Audit and backlog built by PERM system
2) Bad Economy.
b) Spillover to EB2 would benefit india more than China.

But even if 50% of pending PERM are cleared this year then the # of EB2 would be more.

So every EB2 should pray that the PERM system should work in the same pace for next 1 year.




But, woudn't the 75% of 140K quota for next two years be consumed by ROW applicants who are about to apply. Becoz they are current wouldn't the VISA number go to them..

All the above calculations I guess are assuming that the entire 140K will be given the pending 485 application..May be I am missing something.

[BharatPremi]

I don't get how you are getting the 8008 figure. Based on the 9%, you are right about the cap for any country being 12,600 for all EB categories combined.
Pre-adjudication has nothing to do with country quota. And 'assigning a number' is still based on country quota. With all the pre-adjudication, it is likely that 'assigned numbers' = GC approvals. The 'assigned numbers' concept was a lot more relevant till last year, when they had numbers, but still had to 'process' the applications. Now most applications seem to have been 'pre-processed'(pre-adjudicated)

I do appreciate your work. Just trying to help achieve a more accurate figure.

1) Each (EB1/2/3) - 28.6% WW quota = 40040
2) 5 subscription cataegories under each EB category: I,P,C,M,ROW
3) Assumption - USCIS distributes equal share among these 5 different subscription categories = 40040/5 =8008 in each EB category for a particular subscription category.

Example:

EB3 All = 40040 ( 0.286 x 140000)
EB3 ALL = EB3 I + EB3 C + EB3 M + EB3 P + EB3 ROW

Assuming equal share of all of these 5 subscription categories - 40040/5 = 8008 applications to be worked for "Assigning the visa number" not " for granting the visa (IN other words physical greencard order)"

7% + 2% = 9% country specific limit is meant for "Granting the visa - Ordering Physical Green card" out of "Applications which have been assigned a visa number" NOT FOR "Assigning the visa number"

[trueguy]

EB3-I can benefit only if per country cap is removed. Can IV do something to get this done as part of Admin Fix? Otherwise EB3-I will rot in 2001/2002 for next 3 more years.

[WeldonSprings]

Also, take a point to note that after August 2007, the overall volume has decreased drastically. Economy was good from Sept. 2007 to Aug. 2008, but still countries who were current, did not file as amany EB1s and EB2s compared to previous years.

Also, another point to note is that government came out with this data at this moment, because this will instill a ray of hope in every EB individual on their future prospects due to reduced filing from Sept. 2008 onwards.

If, the government came out with the same data, one year back, we would be VERY depresssed, won't we?

So, there is a ray of light at the end of the tunnel.

All the calculations are based on the following assumptions

a)Number of EB2(ROW) Labor approval from PERM would be in the range of thousands, say maximum 5000.
The reasons are
1) Increased Audit and backlog built by PERM system
2) Bad Economy.
b) Spillover to EB2 would benefit india more than China.

But even if 50% of pending PERM are cleared this year then the # of EB2 would be more.

So every EB2 should pray that the PERM system should work in the same pace for next 1 year.

[beautifulMind]

"interfiling" to use old EB3 PD for new EB2 is not the easiest path for EB3-I guys specially if they have used AC21 and work on EAD now ( Most of us are in this category). Priority date porting is not an issue, USCIS does not have a problem with that. The problem is with "Job definition and level". While one use AC21 claims job position matching EB3 job classification and if there no enough progression gap between AC21 usage and "inerfiling" It becomes hard for a lawyer to convince USCIS that fellow is matching EB2 capability under same job classification. Hundred of such intefilings are waiting without no action from USCIS. My lawyer's advice wait till we logically can establish the skill progression, in other words minimum 3 years of wait from the day AC21 usage. And other important thing is "real promotion" in position should happen at employment and this whole explanation is based on assumption of employment at the same employer. If you change employment inbetween after AC21 usage and before interfiling , your 3 years wait cycle starts from new emploment date. I have not filed "interfiling" just because of these reasons and waiting for correct time to do that. In other words Eb3-I is really and badly screwed.\



I am in a similar situation

I have EAD from an EB3 application and I applied for labor in EB2 with same company but different position while working in the new position on EB3 EAD

My eligible date for ac21 is Jan 2008

so are you saying I should only interfile 485 in Eb2 in jan 2011?

You reply would really appreciated since I am really confused

[BharatPremi]

\



I am in a similar situation

I have EAD from an EB3 application and I applied for labor in EB2 with same company but different position while working in the new position on EB3 EAD

My eligible date for ac21 is Jan 2008

so are you saying I should only interfile 485 in Eb2 in jan 2011?

You reply would really appreciated since I am really confused

My lawyer advised me as I mentioned before. If your case is simliar to me and if you might have hired the same lawyer he would have advised you the same as what he advised me :). The key is the "wait period" and letter from employer " To show readiness to promote based on skill progression for 2-3 years". Technically "real promotion" should occur on the day of interfiling or immediately after that not before the interfiling.

[ashshef]

1) Each (EB1/2/3) - 28.6% WW quota = 40040
2) 5 subscription cataegories under each EB category: I,P,C,M,ROW
3) Assumption - USCIS distributes equal share among these 5 different subscription categories = 40040/5 =8008 in each EB category for a particular subscription category.

Example:

EB3 All = 40040 ( 0.286 x 140000)
EB3 ALL = EB3 I + EB3 C + EB3 M + EB3 P + EB3 ROW

Assuming equal share of all of these 5 subscription categories - 40040/5 = 8008 applications to be worked for "Assigning the visa number" not " for granting the visa (IN other words physical greencard order)"

7% + 2% = 9% country specific limit is meant for "Granting the visa - Ordering Physical Green card" out of "Applications which have been assigned a visa number"

Number 2) and hence number 3) are definitely wrong.
As I mentioned in my other post, the categorisation for I,P,C,M and ROW is based on the fact that I,P,C,M are the only countries with demand exceeding the annual limit.
ROW = All countries not hitting the 7%(or 9%) country limit. That doesn't mean they are capped at X/5. What would be the basis of that cap.
Assuming USCIS acts like it is supposed to, follows all rules etc........They start using new numbers on Oct1st of the new FY with a fresh slate of 140k available.
Now by law, they will first divide the cap into the 5 EB categories -EB1, EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5. Now once they reach the 7%(or 9) cap in any of the categories, they will have to stop assigning numbers for that country. So for EB3, once they reach the 7 or 9% quota for I,C,M,P - they will need to stop. The rest of the countries(ROW) will get the 100 - (7 x 4) = 72% of the quota. This could be divied up between UK, France, Pak, Germany etc etc. As none of them are going over the 7%, the country cap doesn't affect them. But Since there are a lot of apps under EB3-ROW, there's never any number to spill over to the capped countries.
In case of EB2, only 2 countries hit the cap - India and China. In this case even P and M are part of ROW. But since the apps from ROW is less than the remaining quota of (100 - 7 x 2)% of the EB2 quota, the remaining will be spilled over. The spillover rules will determine who these go to.
The way the current spillover rules stand, your final calculations will still hold true for EB2 due to the spillover ultimately remaining the same to EB2. But not for EB3.

[sroyc]

These assumptions marked in red are incorrect. ROW has been consolidated into 1 category to simplify the visa bulletin. ICMP countries exceed the quota, that's why they have separate entries. If another country exceeds the quota U.K. for example, then it'll have it own column in the visa bulletin. The quota for EB-ROW is 40K - per country limit for ICMP for that category X 4. That's why EB3 India has been getting screwed ever since they re-interpreted the spillover rules (in the middle of 2008). Otherwise, you would see EB3 ICMP get at least 8K GCs in 2009.

1) Each (EB1/2/3) - 28.6% WW quota = 40040
2) 5 subscription cataegories under each EB category: I,P,C,M,ROW
) Assumption - USCIS distributes equal share amon3g these 5 different subscription categories = 40040/5 =8008 in each EB category for a particular subscription category.

Example:

EB3 All = 40040 ( 0.286 x 140000)
EB3 ALL = EB3 I + EB3 C + EB3 M + EB3 P + EB3 ROW

Assuming equal share of all of these 5 subscription categories - 40040/5 = 8008 applications to be worked for "Assigning the visa number" not " for granting the visa (IN other words physical greencard order)"

7% + 2% = 9% country specific limit is meant for "Granting the visa - Ordering Physical Green card" out of "Applications which have been assigned a visa number" NOT FOR "Assigning the visa number"

[BharatPremi]

Number 2) and hence number 3) are definitely wrong.
As I mentioned in my other post, the categorisation for I,P,C,M and ROW is based on the fact that I,P,C,M are the only countries with demand exceeding the annual limit.
ROW = All countries not hitting the 7%(or 9%) country limit. That doesn't mean they are capped at X/5. What would be the basis of that cap.
Assuming USCIS acts like it is supposed to, follows all rules etc........They start using new numbers on Oct1st of the new FY with a fresh slate of 140k available.
Now by law, they will first divide the cap into the 5 EB categories -EB1, EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5. Now once they reach the 7%(or 9) cap in any of the categories, they will have to stop assigning numbers for that country. So for EB3, once they reach the 7 or 9% quota for I,C,M,P - they will need to stop. The rest of the countries(ROW) will get the 100 - (7 x 4) = 72% of the quota. This could be divied up between UK, France, Pak, Germany etc etc. As none of them are going over the 7%, the country cap doesn't affect them. But Since there are a lot of apps under EB3-ROW, there's never any number to spill over to the capped countries.
In case of EB2, only 2 countries hit the cap - India and China. In this case even P and M are part of ROW. But since the apps from ROW is less than the remaining quota of (100 - 7 x 2)% of the EB2 quota, the remaining will be spilled over. The spillover rules will determine who these go to.
The way the current spillover rules stand, your final calculations will still hold true for EB2 due to the spillover ultimately remaining the same to EB2. But not for EB3.

This is not the correct understanding. I know this myth is propogated millions of times in millions of board and so now this myth has become "truth" for millions. But that is not the correct way USCIS does things.

Country specific limit - 9% does NOT have any realtion to "assigning numbers". it is just meant to "approve 485 - mail you a real physical green card".

In ROW cataegory other countries are also bound with this 9 (7 + 2) % limit for Visa granting. For an example - For Pakistan USCIS will never grant more than 9% visa per year no matter how many applications from Pakistan have been assigned a valid visa number. Same will go true for Britain or any "other" country.

In reality How USCIS divide 28.6% among countires - That is unknown mystery and nobody surely know that. And that is why I had to assume "equal shares - 5 part" in my analysis assuming USCIS works fairly but we all know that is a bullshit too :)

[gc28262]

My lawyer advised me as I mentioned before. If your case is simliar to me and if you might have hired the same lawyer he would have advised you the same as what he advised me :). The key is the "wait period" and letter from employer " To show readiness to promote based on skill progression for 2-3 years". Technically "real promotion" should occur on the day of interfiling or immediately after that not before the interfiling.

How can the current position (EB3) relevant when the new employer is filing your GC for a future job (Eb2) ?
Does the employee need to get promoted in the current job to apply for a future EB2 job ?

[laborchic]

There are 37275 applications with PD of 2004 or earlier. Can we make an assumption that about 20 to 30% of these would try to port once economy turns around in the next 18 to 24 months? How will this impact wait time for a EB2 with PD Jan 2006?

I am really disappointed in the info provided via the foia effort. It told me that there are only 4118 applications before me. 4118 vs 28074. Worst kind of sick joke.

Based on the PD on my 140 Approval Notice (May-2004) there are 28074 applications before me. This is the correct date.
Based on the PD on my 485 Interview Notice (Aug-2007) there are 53192 applications before me.

I do not know how my application was counted when the data was put together.

Huh.... How did you got this information of how many applications are in queue before you??? Am I missing something here...:confused:

[485Mbe4001]

My reasoning for less than 3k visas for EB3 I

Assume EB3 I has 2800 available per year
2800/12 = 233.33 per month.
The spread sheet shows that there are 135 pending with PD of March 01 or less. Which is less than 233 the PD did not cross April because there are 452 applications in april. A PD of April makes sense. Using calculation the PD will be July 2001 in Dec.

if you assume 8080 visas per year then there will be 673 visas availble per month and the PD should have crossed to May 2001 because the total pending 485s on May 1st are 587. If we go with your assumption then the PD in December will be at Jan 2002...I


This is not the correct understanding. I know this myth is propogated millions of times in millions of board and so now this myth has become "truth" for millions. But that is not the correct way USCIS does things.

Country specific limit - 9% does NOT have any realtion to "assigning numbers". it is just meant to "approve 485 - mail you a real physical green card".

In ROW cataegory other countries are also bound with this 9 (7 + 2) % limit for Visa granting. For an example - For Pakistan USCIS will never grant more than 9% visa per year no matter how many applications from Pakistan have been assigned a valid visa number. Same will go true for Britain or any "other" country.

In reality How USCIS divide 28.6% among countires - That is unknown mystery and nobody surely know that. And that is why I had to assume "equal shares - 5 part" in my analysis assuming USCIS works fairly but we all know that is a bullshit too :)

[gans]

Are we missing another important information in the calculations here? Taken from the visa bulletin - "2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320."

For example, in the case of India, there cannot be more than 25620 [7%(226000+140000)] + 7320 [2%(226000+140000)] = 32940 green cards/year (excepting the spill-overs) inclusive of family and employment based categories (and their different quotas).

I guess, unless we get the numbers for family-based applications, similar to EB-485 that has just been released, the conclusions are based on approximations and assumptions, although I wish to point out how much I have learned and appreciate all the analysis here.

Because, if there can only be 32940 green cards for all people (family + employment) from India in a particular year(excepting the spill-overs), the employment-based green cards alone are 1960(EB4) + 1960(EB5) + 8008(EB1) + 8008(EB2) + 8008(EB3) = 27944. Does it mean that there are only 32940-27944=4996 family based green cards for India/year (excepting the spill-overs)? And also, I believe that family-based has a higher priority than employment-based as a result of which the spill-overs are larger for the former.

Does anyone seem to agree with me?

[BharatPremi]

How can the current position (EB3) relevant when the new employer is filing your GC for a future job (Eb2) ?
Does the employee need to get promoted in the current job to apply for a future EB2 job ?

Good Question. AC21 usage introduces a "Chicken Or Egg" situation. Our limitations 1) Till we interfile we have to show us fulfilling EB3 job calssification related obligations ( that also is a "future" postion in reality). Now if EB2 application is from "same employer" then that employer can logically produce the letter matching EB2 level experience after "real and natural skill progression" only to prove that you are fit for more advanced skill level job in other words after wait for 2-3 years.

[BharatPremi]

My reasoning for less than 3k visas for EB3 I

Assume EB3 I has 2800 available per year
2800/12 = 233.33 per month.
The spread sheet shows that there are 135 pending with PD of March 01 or less. Which is less than 233 the PD did not cross April because there are 452 applications in april. A PD of April makes sense. Using calculation the PD will be July 2001 in Dec.

if you assume 8080 visas per year then there will be 673 visas availble per month and the PD should have crossed to May 2001 because the total pending 485s on May 1st are 587. If we go with your assumption then the PD in December will be at Jan 2002...I

You brought a good point to churn on our heads but remember DOS decides the dates not the USCIS and DOS and USCIS do not have any interlinking to set Dates in a bulletin.

How DOS decides the dates in each bulletin is also a mysterious and unknown area.

[ujjwal_p]

Also, take a point to note that after August 2007, the overall volume has decreased drastically. Economy was good from Sept. 2007 to Aug. 2008, but still countries who were current, did not file as amany EB1s and EB2s compared to previous years.

Also, another point to note is that government came out with this data at this moment, because this will instill a ray of hope in every EB individual on their future prospects due to reduced filing from Sept. 2008 onwards.

If, the government came out with the same data, one year back, we would be VERY depresssed, won't we?

So, there is a ray of light at the end of the tunnel.

I think one common mistake that is being made everywhere on this board since the USCIS data got out is to make assumptions on demand. We are only being shown data which shows pending applications from USCIS. If USCIS releases data of how much demand by priority date they were getting then its a different thing. When you say , Economy was good from Sept. 2007 to Aug. 2008, but still countries who were current, did not file as amany EB1s and EB2s compared to previous years. are you basing that on this data released by USCIS or on something else. Because if you are then you are probably wrong. This data only tells you pending data as of Aug 2009 by priority dates. It could well be the case that USCIS got a lot of volume from Sep 2007 to Aug 2008 and processed them all and hence pending is less now. Hope you understand. The only way you can do it with some degree of success with current public data is by looking at PERM Filing data.

[gc28262]

Good Question. AC21 usage introduces a "Chicken Or Egg" situation. Our limitations 1) Till we interfile we have to show us fulfilling EB3 job calssification related obligations ( that also is a "future" postion in reality). Now if EB2 application is from "same employer" then that employer can logically produce the letter matching EB2 level experience after "real and natural skill progression" only to prove that you are fit for more advanced skill level job in other words after wait for 2-3 years.

Many of us could be over-qualified for our current EB3 position (after so many years of wait) and is accepting the current position only to strictly adhere to "same/similar" job classification. In that case employer can file a GC for our real qualification i.e. Eb2.

[Jerrome]

They are referring to the Perm Labor data for year 2009.


I think one common mistake that is being made everywhere on this board since the USCIS data got out is to make assumptions on demand. We are only being shown data which shows pending applications from USCIS. If USCIS releases data of how much demand by priority date they were getting then its a different thing. When you say , are you basing that on this data released by USCIS or on something else. Because if you are then you are probably wrong. This data only tells you pending data as of Aug 2009 by priority dates. It could well be the case that USCIS got a lot of volume from Sep 2007 to Aug 2008 and processed them all and hence pending is less now. Hope you understand. The only way you can do it with some degree of success with current public data is by looking at PERM Filing data.

[ashshef]

This is not the correct understanding. I know this myth is propogated millions of times in millions of board and so now this myth has become "truth" for millions. But that is not the correct way USCIS does things.

Country specific limit - 9% does NOT have any realtion to "assigning numbers". it is just meant to "approve 485 - mail you a real physical green card".

In ROW cataegory other countries are also bound with this 9 (7 + 2) % limit for Visa granting. For an example - For Pakistan USCIS will never grant more than 9% visa per year no matter how many applications from Pakistan have been assigned a valid visa number. Same will go true for Britain or any "other" country.

In reality How USCIS divide 28.6% among countires - That is unknown mystery and nobody surely know that. And that is why I had to assume "equal shares - 5 part" in my analysis assuming USCIS works fairly but we all know that is a bullshit too :)

I completely agree with your last 2 lines. But I don't agree with the even dividing of the number into 5 categories of I,P,C,M,ROW.
Let's take an example. Suppose for some odd coincidence....the first 8000 odd EB3 apps that USCIS processes starting Oct 1.....none are from I,P,C,M. Suppose First 2500 are from Uk, next 2500 from France, next 2500 Germany and the next 508 from Pakistan. Now the number for ROW at this point would be 8008. Now they get another app from UK next. Will they refuse to process that app as the ROW figure had reached? Then they will still process more than 2500 for I,P,C,M. Won't that be unfair to UK applicants.

As I have said a couple of times now, and so have a few others - ROW cannot be capped at X/5. Due to the high demand from I,P,C,M....it likely gets a MINIMUM of (100 - (7 X 4)) X EB3 cap.

[485Mbe4001]

We all are, at one time my company was willing to refile with EB2 but the @#!@# lawyers interpret the law differently. They recommended that EB2 filing is not possible because the job is not more than 50% different. Given the vague job descriptions used when they initially filed the labor, i will have to completely change my area of work.

Immigration lawyers are the slimy !@#!@s who are making money based on everyones misery.

Many of us could be over-qualified for our current EB3 position (after so many years of wait) and is accepting the current position only to strictly adhere to "same/similar" job classification. In that case employer can file a GC for our real qualification i.e. Eb2.

[sachug22]

In reality How USCIS divide 28.6% among countires - That is unknown mystery and nobody surely know that. And that is why I had to assume "equal shares - 5 part" in my analysis assuming USCIS works fairly but we all know that is a bullshit too :)

Look at histrocial approval you will know your assumption is incorrect. ROW gets more than half the numbers in any category.

[BharatPremi]

Many of us could be over-qualified for our current EB3 position (after so many years of wait) and is accepting the current position only to strictly adhere to "same/similar" job classification. In that case employer can file a GC for our real qualification i.e. Eb2.

Yes agree. The point is that for an example in September 2008 if you used AC21 then on that date you and your employer claimed that your skills are matching for "particular EB3 job classification" . Now if you go interfiling to USCIS in March 2009 then USCIS doubt as logically employer ca not establish the "natural skill progression" within 6 months.

One more thing - RFEs. Although people used AC21 in 2007 or start of 2008, just recently USCIS sent RFEs to many. All of them have just finished replying those RFEs in which hthey claimed that they are still working on a "same job" matching EB3 skill. My employer sent that RFE response in May 2009. So my clock starts again from May 2009. In December 2009 it is almost impossible for my employer to show that " I am fit for advanced skills". So this is the glitch that lot many lawyers are strongly hesitant to proceed on interfiling.

[StillonH1B]

This link is not working
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Str...%20Reports.pdf. I get a Page Not found error.

Is there a different link.

[BharatPremi]

Look at histrocial approval you will know your assumption is incorrect. ROW gets more than half the numbers in any category.

Yes, it is possible that my assumption is not correct. That is why it is an assumtion:).
But till I get some "authentic" base to count on I do not have any way other than logical assumption.

As data what you presented, it was indeed a low rate of approvals for Eb3-I with comparison to EB3-ROW but that was mainly due to the fact that lot many Indians were screwed and stuck in state based labor queue and PERM queue and I-140 queues for years where as EB-ROWS guys did not face that punishment as intensively as we did.

[BharatPremi]

This link is not working
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Str...%20Reports.pdf. I get a Page Not found error.

Is there a different link.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/3rd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Children)/Green%20Card%20-%203rd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I485%20Reports.pdf

[vicsthedude]

Here is my chart

EB1 EB2 EB3 EB4 EB5 EBOther
India 718 47728 62607 123 13 107
China 607 19333 6343 384 13 30
Mexixo 174 211 7878 62 0 90
Phil 74 510 11563 70 0 264
ROW 2477 7150 62840 1378 40 1029
__________________________________________________ ______________
Total 4050 74932 151231 2017 66 1520

================================================== ===

Total EB1+EB4+EB5 + Ebother = 7653
_______________________________________
EB2- MEX+PHIL+ROW = 7871
________________________________________
Assuming new cases in ROW Category = 4476 (Random number makes total visa number
being used to round 20,000)
__________________________________________________ ___________
TOT Visa that would surely be used = EB1ALL+ EB4ALL+EB5ALL+EBothersALL+EB2ROW+Eb2M+Eb2P=
7653+7871+4476 = 20000
__________________________________________________ _____________________

Visa Numbers Available for both AOS & CP after using sure shot cases (140,000-20,000) = 120,000

Additional Visa numbers will be available for categories (EB2 I/C + EB3 I/C/M/P/ROW) all other categories will be current.

Because there are 62,840 EB3 pending for the rest of the world I doubt any additional numbers(spill) would
be given to EB3I/C/P/M spill would be used by EB3 ROW ???? Correct me if I am wrong



Of the additional visa numbers available after EB3 ROW uses it, max how many can be allocated to India and China EB2 is the question.......? Can someone answer this based on the max limit per country and per category???

[snathan]

Here is my chart

EB1 EB2 EB3 EB4 EB5 EBOther TOT
India 718 47728 62607 123 13 107
China 607 19333 6343 384 13 30
Mexixo 174 211 7878 62 0 90
Phil 74 510 11563 70 0 264
ROW 2477 7150 62840 1378 40 1029
__________________________________________________ ______________
Total 4050 74932 151231 2017 66 1520

================================================== ===

Total EB1+EB4+EB5 + Ebother = 7653
_______________________________________
EB2- MEX+PHIL+ROW = 7871
________________________________________
Assuming new cases in ROW Category = 4476 (Random number makes total visa number
being used to round 20,000)
__________________________________________________ ___________
TOT Visa that would surely be used = EB1ALL+ EB4ALL+EB5ALL+EBothersALL+EB2ROW=
7653+7871+4476 = 20000
__________________________________________________ _____________________

Visa Numbers Available for both AOS & CP after using sure shot cases (140,000-20,000) = 120,000

Additional Visa numbers will be available for categories (EB2 I/C + EB3 I/C/M/P/ROW)

Because there are 62,840 EB3 pending for the rest of the world I doubt any numbers would
be given EB3I/C/P/M ???? Correct me if I am wrong

Of the additional visa numbers available after EB3 ROW uses it, max how many can be allocated to India and China EB2 is the question.......? Can someone answer this based on the max limit per country and per category???

Spill over does not have any country limit. they will allocate it untill it becomes current or numbers running out.

[BharatPremi]

I completely agree with your last 2 lines. But I don't agree with the even dividing of the number into 5 categories of I,P,C,M,ROW.
Let's take an example. Suppose for some odd coincidence....the first 8000 odd EB3 apps that USCIS processes starting Oct 1.....none are from I,P,C,M. Suppose First 2500 are from Uk, next 2500 from France, next 2500 Germany and the next 508 from Pakistan. Now the number for ROW at this point would be 8008. Now they get another app from UK next. Will they refuse to process that app as the ROW figure had reached? Then they will still process more than 2500 for I,P,C,M. Won't that be unfair to UK applicants.

As I have said a couple of times now, and so have a few others - ROW cannot be capped at X/5. Due to the high demand from I,P,C,M....it likely gets a MINIMUM of (100 - (7 X 4)) X EB3 cap.

That was a ateempt to establish a "fair assumtion" so It may be wrong. But simultaneously you also should not assume FIFO within EB-ROW as you tried to explain as we really do not know whether USCIS follows FIFO.. Bottomline USCIS, by law, can not exceed 9% limit for any ROW based countries (Britain, pakistan,...) as well.

[485Mbe4001]

makes sense now.. EB3 I was 3576 in 2008 due to the spillover rule change. For 2006 and earlier Eb3 and EB2 were roughly the same?

2007 was an anomaly due to the June fiasco. On the other hand the 7% limit was not applied in 2007. It is pretty clear that they do whatever they want.

2008 data
China 5602 6964 1982
India 5327 14818 3576
Mexico 1457 1348 4020
Philip 310 2057 5625
All 36590 70135 42840
ROW 23894 44948 27637

2007 data
India 2855 6203 17795
China 2982 6797 3580
Mexico 1109 900 8941
Philip 271 1608 8038
All 26806 44400 72574
ROW 19589 28892 34220

(ROW is 5-7 times any other country usage)

[Ramba]

Lot of analysis. Here is my part. If DOS properly followed the INA as amended by AC21 act in 2000, EB2-I never retrogressed since year 2005. EB2 I might have been always “current”. EB3 including ROW might have been much worst situation than now. EB3-IN will always be in disaster state. Though it is unfair to (EB3) many, this is what the law. In later part of 1990s EB categories were retrogressed for IN, CH by about 2 years. When AC21 law passed in 2000, it did two very important things. One recapture of about 216,000 EB visas and it removed country quota in each EB category if excess visas available, in that category. That means it enforced horizontal spill over. In simple example, consider Mexico which is most subscribing country. Lets assume in a fiscal year, 40,000 Mexican are eligible for EB2 visa(and no other citizens in EB2), and millions of Mexican eligible for EB3 and in family based categories, still DOS should issue 40,000 EB2 visa to Mexicans irrespective of how much demand in other categories. Because of tons of backlogs in 485 (between 2000 and 2004), particularly in EB3, DOS issued about 185000 (out of 216000) to EB3. That’s why EB3 was current between 2000 and 2004. They simply ignored the EB2 demand by India and retrogressed in 2005, though total demand for EB2 less than the available pool of recaptured visas. Since the year 2007, they realized the mistake and now (since 2007) they are following correctly (though may not fair) the law. If they follow correctly the law, EB2-IN, Ch will become current soon. Till all EB2 become current, EB3 never see any spill over. Till EB3 –ROW become current, EB3 IN will not see any spill over. Till that point EB3-In will get only 2800 EB3 visas.

[Powersa]

Well if you look at the big picture, assume the data is complete, about 233,000 total pending EB apps. Forget about the country, category, etc. for a minute.

New apps are coming in if PD current in monthly Visa Bulletin. If you get a velocity of these news apps by month/year then this becomes kid level math, given that 140,000 gets approved each year, don't know if that's a fact though.

So are there 100,000 new EB apps a year? or 50,000? Something else? That's Visa Bulletin dependent though.

[Michael chertoff]

After so many analysis going on, can anyone predict based on all number calculation, when My PD june EB2 June 2006 will be current... just want to get some idea, brothers help me I am weak in mathematics.

thanks
MC

[supers789]

will be current before on or Sept 2010.

[pitha]

To Add to what you have said, I would say getting EB2 approval is almost impossible because not only is DOL cracking down on EB2 perms because of bad economy, DOL also knows that people are trying to reapply in Eb2 to jump ahead and they are stopping that practise.

The following information is asked in the first field of ETA form 9089.

"1. Are you seeking to utilize the filing date for a previously submitted application for Alien Employemnt Certification (ETA 750)?"
"1-A. If Yes, enter the previous filing date"
"2-A. "Indicate the previous SWA or local offiice case number OR, if not available, specify the state where case was originally filed:"

With the above information from form 9089 DOL knows the people who are trying to jump ahead by interfiling. Thats an almost gaurenteed audit. The attorneys already know this and this is the reason why many companies are not entretaining filing any EB2 perm. If anybody is lucky they might find a company willing to file eb3 perm after 6 months but no company wants to file Eb2 perm. interfiling \porting from eb3 to eb2 is a pipe dream, people cant even get eb3 approvals or alteast companies willing to file eb3 perm.


"interfiling" to use old EB3 PD for new EB2 is not the easiest path for EB3-I guys specially if they have used AC21 and work on EAD now ( Most of us are in this category). Priority date porting is not an issue, USCIS does not have a problem with that. The problem is with "Job definition and level". While one use AC21 claims job position matching EB3 job classification and if there no enough progression gap between AC21 usage and "inerfiling" It becomes hard for a lawyer to convince USCIS that fellow is matching EB2 capability under same job classification. Hundred of such intefilings are waiting without no action from USCIS. My lawyer's advice wait till we logically can establish the skill progression, in other words minimum 3 years of wait from the day AC21 usage. And other important thing is "real promotion" in position should happen at employment and this whole explanation is based on assumption of employment at the same employer. If you change employment inbetween after AC21 usage and before interfiling , your 3 years wait cycle starts from new emploment date. I have not filed "interfiling" just because of these reasons and waiting for correct time to do that. In other words Eb3-I is really and badly screwed.

[rsharma]

Thanks Ramba for the analysis. Kudos to you to bring out the true fact regarding the spill over. I see you are belong to Eb3 ROW category but still you stood for the truth.


Lot of analysis. Here is my part. If DOS properly followed the INA as amended by AC21 act in 2000, EB2-I never retrogressed since year 2005. EB2 I might have been always “current”. EB3 including ROW might have been much worst situation than now. EB3-IN will always be in disaster state. Though it is unfair to (EB3) many, this is what the law. In later part of 1990s EB categories were retrogressed for IN, CH by about 2 years. When AC21 law passed in 2000, it did two very important things. One recapture of about 216,000 EB visas and it removed country quota in each EB category if excess visas available, in that category. That means it enforced horizontal spill over. In simple example, consider Mexico which is most subscribing country. Lets assume in a fiscal year, 40,000 Mexican are eligible for EB2 visa(and no other citizens in EB2), and millions of Mexican eligible for EB3 and in family based categories, still DOS should issue 40,000 EB2 visa to Mexicans irrespective of how much demand in other categories. Because of tons of backlogs in 485 (between 2000 and 2004), particularly in EB3, DOS issued about 185000 (out of 216000) to EB3. That’s why EB3 was current between 2000 and 2004. They simply ignored the EB2 demand by India and retrogressed in 2005, though total demand for EB2 less than the available pool of recaptured visas. Since the year 2007, they realized the mistake and now (since 2007) they are following correctly (though may not fair) the law. If they follow correctly the law, EB2-IN, Ch will become current soon. Till all EB2 become current, EB3 never see any spill over. Till EB3 –ROW become current, EB3 IN will not see any spill over. Till that point EB3-In will get only 2800 EB3 visas.

[number30]

Lot of analysis. Here is my part. If DOS properly followed the INA as amended by AC21 act in 2000, EB2-I never retrogressed since year 2005. EB2 I might have been always “current”. EB3 including ROW might have been much worst situation than now. EB3-IN will always be in disaster state. Though it is unfair to (EB3) many, this is what the law. In later part of 1990s EB categories were retrogressed for IN, CH by about 2 years. When AC21 law passed in 2000, it did two very important things. One recapture of about 216,000 EB visas and it removed country quota in each EB category if excess visas available, in that category. That means it enforced horizontal spill over. In simple example, consider Mexico which is most subscribing country. Lets assume in a fiscal year, 40,000 Mexican are eligible for EB2 visa(and no other citizens in EB2), and millions of Mexican eligible for EB3 and in family based categories, still DOS should issue 40,000 EB2 visa to Mexicans irrespective of how much demand in other categories. Because of tons of backlogs in 485 (between 2000 and 2004), particularly in EB3, DOS issued about 185000 (out of 216000) to EB3. That’s why EB3 was current between 2000 and 2004. They simply ignored the EB2 demand by India and retrogressed in 2005, though total demand for EB2 less than the available pool of recaptured visas. Since the year 2007, they realized the mistake and now (since 2007) they are following correctly (though may not fair) the law. If they follow correctly the law, EB2-IN, Ch will become current soon. Till all EB2 become current, EB3 never see any spill over. Till EB3 –ROW become current, EB3 IN will not see any spill over. Till that point EB3-In will get only 2800 EB3 visas.

Numbers made available from AC21 was the only initial reason to become current. Later after 2001-Sept until 2002- October ( TSC until March 2003) no EB I-485 were approved. Only the cases either transfered to local office or consular processing were getting Approval. It was weird situation because no numbers were getting used hence all numbers were available. So it remained current until 2004. Otherwise it would have been retrogressed by 2003 itself.

[sareesh]

Two of my friends successfully ported to EB2.
PD nov04 &
PD dec04
I requested my lawyer about my options?
TX
SG

[gc_wow]

Any body know why there are 3341 cases in March 2005 in EB2 I category, is this about the time PERM came?With out quarterly spill over bulletin is going to get stuck in March 2005 till the end of the USCIS financial year.

[roseball]

The following information is asked in the first field of ETA form 9089.

"1. Are you seeking to utilize the filing date for a previously submitted application for Alien Employemnt Certification (ETA 750)?"
"1-A. If Yes, enter the previous filing date"
"2-A. "Indicate the previous SWA or local offiice case number OR, if not available, specify the state where case was originally filed:"


The reason for that question in the form 9089 was to give an opportunity to convert the old labor applications rotting in the Backlog Elimination Centers to PERM, when PERM was first introduced in Mar '05. AFAIK, this has got nothing to do with porting the PD. PD porting can be requested while filing the second I-140 after the new EB-2 perm labor has been approved. You don't have to disclose anything while in PERM phase.

[roseball]

Any body know why there are 3341 cases in March 2005 in EB2 I category, is this about the time PERM came?With out quarterly spill over bulletin is going to get stuck in March 2005 till the end of the USCIS financial year.

Yes, PERM was introduced on 28th Mar'05. I guess the high number of EB-2s was due to employers rushing to file under the old system.

[gc_wow]

Rose Ball,
What do you think will EB2 I will get stuck in March 2005 for the rest of USCIS year untill September? I think Quarterly spill over is the name of the game now.

[beautifulMind]

Yes agree. The point is that for an example in September 2008 if you used AC21 then on that date you and your employer claimed that your skills are matching for "particular EB3 job classification" . Now if you go interfiling to USCIS in March 2009 then USCIS doubt as logically employer ca not establish the "natural skill progression" within 6 months.

One more thing - RFEs. Although people used AC21 in 2007 or start of 2008, just recently USCIS sent RFEs to many. All of them have just finished replying those RFEs in which hthey claimed that they are still working on a "same job" matching EB3 skill. My employer sent that RFE response in May 2009. So my clock starts again from May 2009. In December 2009 it is almost impossible for my employer to show that " I am fit for advanced skills". So this is the glitch that lot many lawyers are strongly hesitant to proceed on interfiling.



But I have already taken the promoton on Jan 2009 (raise and change in job requirements since I filed perm) and moved to the new eb2 position...I dd that after a year and half from eb3 485..... the job is same/similar but requirements and skills have changed

but as you mentioned
I should stll be ok and just make sure I interfile 485 after 3 years ?

[rahil]

I thought the spillover was only in september annually..

[Michael chertoff]

will be current before on or Sept 2010.

Thanks brother for giving me some idea...

[BharatPremi]

But I have already taken the promoton on Jan 2009 (raise and change in job requirements since I filed perm) and moved to the new eb2 position...I dd that after a year and half from eb3 485..... the job is same/similar but requirements and skills have changed

but as you mentioned
I should stll be ok and just make sure I interfile 485 after 3 years ?

Is your 485 attached to EB3 OR EB2? Interfiling means attaching a new I-140 petition of new EB ctaegory TO 485 application attached to the old EB application to benefit the old PD with more advanced category.

[beautifulMind]

Eb3. I have only applied for PERM in eb2 still waitng for perm to get approved

[BharatPremi]

Eb3. I have only applied for PERM in eb2 still waitng for perm to get approved

I am really confused. You have EB3 based 485. Are you working on EAD or on H1?

[beautifulMind]

I am really confused. You have EB3 based 485. Are you working on EAD or on H1?



I have eb3 485 and am working on EB3 EAD. I do not have a h1b

Eb3 485 Filed on July 2007

Got a promotion at the same company in Jan 2009 and applied for Labor n Eb2 for the new position

Still wating for Perm approval in EB2

[brahmam]

Hey Bharatpremi, taking your numbers and assuming horizontal spill over instead of vertical would make eb2 all over current. total spill over from eb1 = 53807, total eb2 quota = 40040, pending eb2 = 74932
assume eb1 demand = 5000, eb2 demand = 20000

we can easily see eb2 getting completely approved.

[gc_wow]

It looks like atleast 75% of EB2 I with priority dates 2004 seems to be approved, this should bring down the count of 2004 less than 1000 may be little more than 1000.

[BharatPremi]

Hey BP, taking your numbers and assuming horizontal spill over instead of vertical would make eb2 all over current. total spill over from eb1 = 53807, total eb2 quota = 40040, pending eb2 = 74932
assume eb1 demand = 5000, eb2 demand = 20000

we can easily see eb2 getting completely approved.

I concluded the same ( Though never posted that analysis :)) But It looks like we are missing a very critical point - we are assuming that " these pending numbers are the total 485 workload USCIS has" but I referred a different chart on USCIS board and it looks like there is a separte hoard of "preadjudicated" applications already sitting in a queue apart from these numbers. Please check on following link.

USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=4&charttype=1)

[BharatPremi]

I have eb3 485 and am working on EB3 EAD. I do not have a h1b

Eb3 485 Filed on July 2007

Got a promotion at the same company in Jan 2009 and applied for Labor n Eb2 for the new position

Still wating for Perm approval in EB2

Beautifulmind,

I do not want to scare you but what you are claiming here i.e. while working on EB3-EAD aceepting promotion for a EB2-level skill can not be accepted by USCIS. You simply can not accept higher skill level based promotion like that. I think you should first sit down with a good lawyer and find out the solution of this already created mess and then think about interfiling.

Based on all info you provided it looks like our cases are not similar. I have already new approved I-140 - EB2 base - approved in year 2006. My 485 is attached to EB3.

[gc_wow]

Why dont USCIS clarify on the report they put out

1. Lack of description and detail about what it is ?
2. No time stamp on the report
3. Provide some commentary and detail about the parameters used in the report.

[BharatPremi]

Why dont USCIS clarify on the report they put out

1. Lack of description and detail about what it is ?
2. No time stamp on the report
3. Provide some commentary and detail about the parameters used in the report.

Becuase It is USCIS :D

[gc_wow]

Bharat Premi,
Is there any thing we could do abt providing some more details about this report they have put out?

[roseball]

I concluded the same ( Though never posted that analysis :)) But It looks like we are missing a very critical point - we are assuming that " these pending numbers are the total 485 workload USCIS has" but I referred a different chart on USCIS board and it looks like there is a separte hoard of "preadjudicated" applications already sitting in a queue apart from these numbers. Please check on following link.

USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=4&charttype=1)

The I-485 information in this chart includes the family based I-485s as well.

[thakurrajiv]

I concluded the same ( Though never posted that analysis :)) But It looks like we are missing a very critical point - we are assuming that " these pending numbers are the total 485 workload USCIS has" but I referred a different chart on USCIS board and it looks like there is a separte hoard of "preadjudicated" applications already sitting in a queue apart from these numbers. Please check on following link.

USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=4&charttype=1)

I saw this link Murthy's email too. The total pre-adjudicated cases in the chart is matching with the total in the document. Well now there are more un-answered questions:
1. Does all other pending 485 include employment based ? If yes what % are employment based ? Obviously we do not have any country specific data on these.
2. Is there any way to know whether individual case is pre-adjudicated or not ?
USCIS has fooled us again. No good statistical analysis can be done on incomplete/inaccurate data. I am going from hopeful to hopeless again. I am EB2-I Feb 2006.
Thanks a lot for staying on top of this and posting your analysis.

[eyeswe]

Thank for bringing that up.. I had the same inkling, of course , w/o anything to subtantiate when I first saw these "inventory" figures.. I had also posted couple of times this poser.. esp those who were in the math crunching mode to determine the D-days baed on our PD..

This makes such a huuge difference to the queueu.. I am reminded of a post who said he starts the day happy when he sees such numbers and ends with kicking his dog... Gosh I need a dog!!!!

[glus]

They haven't mentioned there whether dependents are included or not. So multiplying by 2.1 is probably not correct nor wrong at this point. I would think dependents are included in this. Everybody needs to file an I-485 I presume and they are just counting the pending ones.

Hi:

My take is that this figure includes dependents. Dependents have SEPARATE I-485s and must be counted separately. The USCIS has said this this is the number of pending I-485s, so it does include pending dependent I-485s. They don't have to specifically mention "dependents are included,"because dependents do file separate forms I-485 when the primary applicant files his/her own. Thank you. :-)

[eb2_mumbai]

I agree the numbers seem to include dependents. I mean while looking at EB2 numbers you can see average 1000 - 1500 applications per month which translates to roughly 400 - 700 primary applications (labor) filed each month. That looks reasonable.

[Brightsider]

I saw this link Murthy's email too. The total pre-adjudicated cases in the chart is matching with the total in the document. Well now there are more un-answered questions:
1. Does all other pending 485 include employment based ? If yes what % are employment based ? Obviously we do not have any country specific data on these.
2. Is there any way to know whether individual case is pre-adjudicated or not ?
USCIS has fooled us again. No good statistical analysis can be done on incomplete/inaccurate data. I am going from hopeful to hopeless again. I am EB2-I Feb 2006.
Thanks a lot for staying on top of this and posting your analysis.

Guys,

If I may suggest.
Take a look at the pending 1-130 (Pref). Over 800k are pending and adjudication has been deferred in those cases. Those are FB cases for sure. Now if USCIS has deferred action in those cases, can we infer that all the 279k I-485 cases relate only to EB? Cant say for sure.
However as it was pointed out in another forum, Texas and Nebraska process only EB cases. In their cases, the rate of preadjudication is very high....over 90% in Texas. I cant fathom the Nebraska numbers.
The preadjudication numbers, in my opinion, are of the EB cases. The data, on the whole, needs to be explained by USCIS, better.

[smisachu]

This link is not working. (Page not found). can someone repost.

Thanks

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

FYI :Goto Page 5 for India

Some Greens Please !! :)

[smisachu]

Never mind. I found it...:)

This link is not working. (Page not found). can someone repost.

Thanks

[illinois_alum]

I saw this link Murthy's email too. The total pre-adjudicated cases in the chart is matching with the total in the document. Well now there are more un-answered questions:
1. Does all other pending 485 include employment based ? If yes what % are employment based ? Obviously we do not have any country specific data on these.
2. Is there any way to know whether individual case is pre-adjudicated or not ?
USCIS has fooled us again. No good statistical analysis can be done on incomplete/inaccurate data. I am going from hopeful to hopeless again. I am EB2-I Feb 2006.
Thanks a lot for staying on top of this and posting your analysis.

I dont get this - the PDF clearly mentions that the table is for ALL PENDING EMPLOYMENT-BASED 485s. So that means: -
1. It does not include any Family-based 485s.
2. This is not a count of just pre-adjudicated cases - this is a count of ALL PENDING CASES.
3. And since this is a count of ALL PENDING CASES, it also means that ALL DEPENDENT CASES are also included in this count - all DEPENDENTS HAVE TO FILE THEIR OWN 485s!

Sometimes I just wonder, if most people here on this board have an illness or over-analyzing everything. It is so simple if you just read what is stated and take it at the face!

[BharatPremi]

I saw this link Murthy's email too. The total pre-adjudicated cases in the chart is matching with the total in the document. Well now there are more un-answered questions:
1. Does all other pending 485 include employment based ? If yes what % are employment based ? Obviously we do not have any country specific data on these.
2. Is there any way to know whether individual case is pre-adjudicated or not ?
USCIS has fooled us again. No good statistical analysis can be done on incomplete/inaccurate data. I am going from hopeful to hopeless again. I am EB2-I Feb 2006.
Thanks a lot for staying on top of this and posting your analysis.

This trend chart/volume chart certainly represents both family and employment base applications. Following is my thought process now with keeping both trend chart and teh worksheet in this thread chain together.

(1) In Worksheet USCIS claims total EB pending case 233816 by December 2009. Yet we
have not reached to December 2009. Trend chart claims total pending 279031
including family base applications. Since famaily to EB ratio is unknown I would
consider worksheet's figure as authentic for pending EB based 485 cases. One practical
clue for inclining to do this as I know USCIS has approved tons of green card in
parental family category. Many of my friends have got GCs for their parents in a
relatively very small time frame - 1 year

(2) I remember somehow that out of 775000 485 applications in October 2007, there were
around 300000 application were from EB category based on USCIS's published
notification ( I tried to find it on internet but some how I do not see it now). If
somebody has a more solid proof this stats from which we can derive nearly accurate
ratio we may consider those stats. But as I mentioned in point 1 USCIS seems to have
cleared more family bassed 485 with comparison to EB categories I would just
assume for now that 60% preadjudicated cases and "awaiting customer action"
and "New receipts" are from family category and 40 % are from EB category. Total
preadjudicated cases per trend chart is 178418. 40% of that around 71367 - for the
sake of easiness let's make it 71500. This way "awaiting cutomer action" cases for EB
categories could be around 18-19000. "New receipt" cases could be around 18000
roughly.

3) Now total EB based 485 cases by July 2009 could be = Pending cases + preadjudicated
cases + cases awaiting customer action + new receipts = 233816 + 71500 + 18000 +
18000 = 341316. Just the sake for simplicity in assumption we may consider total EB
based 485 workload with USCIS around 350000.

4) "In general" the first lot who will come out from this gutter is "preadjudicated" then the
lot "awaiting customer action" then the "pending ones" and then " new receipts"

Now based on my talk with USCIS guy I can state that USCIS generated RFEs innear past for many cases as apart of preadjudication process, particualrly for may AAC21 usage related cases - Asking for proof of employment in the same job classification. According to that talk if USCIS gets required response to the RFE then USCIS settle that case in a "preadjudicated" shelf. In other words the AC21 guys who got the RFE - responded and case is resumed - most of them should be on "preadjudicted" shelf. If we call USCIS generally let us know that whether our particualr case is preadjudicted or not.Lucky one may get that reply in first call and somebody may have to try calling multiple times.

[needhelp!]

This is April 2009 performance report for reference (See last page):
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/operating_performance_apr09.pdf

[BharatPremi]

I dont get this - the PDF clearly mentions that the table is for ALL PENDING EMPLOYMENT-BASED 485s. So that means: -
1. It does not include any Family-based 485s.
2. This is not a count of just pre-adjudicated cases - this is a count of ALL PENDING CASES.
3. And since this is a count of ALL PENDING CASES, it also means that ALL DEPENDENT CASES are also included in this count - all DEPENDENTS HAVE TO FILE THEIR OWN 485s!

Sometimes I just wonder, if most people here on this board have an illness or over-analyzing everything. It is so simple if you just read what is stated and take it at the face!

The only thing I can tell is most of us are trying to search "light" from this "black and dark cloud". USCIS does not seem to be agree with what you are saying. Please have this trend chart and the worksheet in this thread together and then you will realize what we all are saying.:)

[BharatPremi]

This is April 2009 performance report for reference (See last page):
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/operating_performance_apr09.pdf

I got my "light". Thanks for sharing. More food to chew on :)

[illinois_alum]

The only thing I can tell is most of us are trying to search "light" from this "black and dark cloud". USCIS does not seem to be agree with what you are saying. Please have this trend chart and the worksheet in this thread together and then you will realize what we all are saying.:)

Trend chart doesnt give you shit...its just an overall count
I am referring to the PDF report - which clearly mentions that the numbers are for pending Employment based 485 applications. And yet people refer to this report and ask stupid questions or over-analyze it...

[BharatPremi]

Guys,

If I may suggest.
Take a look at the pending 1-130 (Pref). Over 800k are pending and adjudication has been deferred in those cases. Those are FB cases for sure. Now if USCIS has deferred action in those cases, can we infer that all the 279k I-485 cases relate only to EB? Cant say for sure.
However as it was pointed out in another forum, Texas and Nebraska process only EB cases. In their cases, the rate of preadjudication is very high....over 90% in Texas. I cant fathom the Nebraska numbers.
The preadjudication numbers, in my opinion, are of the EB cases. The data, on the whole, needs to be explained by USCIS, better.

You have just hit a stick on my head. Very good point to take into consideration.

[bugsbunny]

It seems more and more cases are getting pre-adjudicated. This is something we all knew but its good to see its pace in a nice little chart. I like these new USCIS site improvements

USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=9&office=4&charttype=1)

Hey there is not change for immigration yet...but i think things are certainly much better than a year ago...maybe it will be a little better next year...atleast its not getting worse :)

[skynet2500]

Can someone post the link for the 485 data? the original link posted on this thread is not working for me any more. It worked for me yesterday, but doesn't work anymore.

Thanks

[sve0390]

Can someone post the link for the 485 data? the original link posted on this thread is not working for me any more. It worked for me yesterday, but doesn't work anymore.

Thanks

This may be it now:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/3rd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Children%29/Green%20Card%20-%203rd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I485%20Reports.pdf

The link says the data was updated August 25, 2009.

[thakurrajiv]

Trend chart doesnt give you shit...its just an overall count
I am referring to the PDF report - which clearly mentions that the numbers are for pending Employment based 485 applications. And yet people refer to this report and ask stupid questions or over-analyze it...

It seems like you are smarter than others or may be you have more insight.
How come total pre-adjudicated in the chart is exactly equal to total I-485 in the pdf ?
What exactly total in chart tool means ?
You might be convinced that you are right but stating that others are asking stupid questions is little too far.

[illinois_alum]

It seems like you are smarter than others or may be you have more insight.
How come total pre-adjudicated in the chart is exactly equal to total I-485 in the pdf ?
What exactly total in chart tool means ?
You might be convinced that you are right but stating that others are asking stupid questions is little too far.

Its not that I think I am smarter or have any additional insight...but I take things at face value. Of course the total number of pending cases in the chart and in the PDF should match - they both are exactly what they say they are "PENDING EMPLOYMENT BASED I-485 cases" If that's what the report title says, that's exactly what it means. No point in over-analyzing if this is just for pre-adjudicated or only primary applications etc....

I say stupid questions because people still ask "Does the PDF report contain numbers for dependents or only for primary applicants" - so you are telling me that this is not clear from the PDF report??

[ronhira]

tracker site data is fake....... tracker site has employees sitting in India...... those employees create fake ids and fake profiles....... then they write post using those fake ids to create an impression that there are lot of people posting on the tracker site...... if you look at title of most threads...... they are framed in the manner that will be inviting most others to write on the thread.......... every few days these employees sitting in India..... using a fake profile ........ start a new thread with a title something like .... 'i got it i got it ' or ' i am green' or something similar..... and using other fake ids the same bunch of employees ask fake questions from op..... who is also a fake handle...... so the data there is totally fake..... that data represents the need of the tracker site to make people to come to their site...... that data does not represent the sample data...... not even close.....

[thakurrajiv]

Its not that I think I am smarter or have any additional insight...but I take things at face value. Of course the total number of pending cases in the chart and in the PDF should match - they both are exactly what they say they are "PENDING EMPLOYMENT BASED I-485 cases" If that's what the report title says, that's exactly what it means. No point in over-analyzing if this is just for pre-adjudicated or only primary applications etc....

I say stupid questions because people still ask "Does the PDF report contain numbers for dependents or only for primary applicants" - so you are telling me that this is not clear from the PDF report??
Illinois-alum I don't have anything against you. I just objected to your language.
As far as your clarity on dependent question goes, it may not be clear to someone very new to the process. So their question might be valid. Nothing wrong in this.
And on over-analysis, I don't think that's the case. We still don't have clear answer on discrepancy.

[BharatPremi]

Its not that I think I am smarter or have any additional insight...but I take things at face value. Of course the total number of pending cases in the chart and in the PDF should match - they both are exactly what they say they are "PENDING EMPLOYMENT BASED I-485 cases" If that's what the report title says, that's exactly what it means. No point in over-analyzing if this is just for pre-adjudicated or only primary applications etc....

I say stupid questions because people still ask "Does the PDF report contain numbers for dependents or only for primary applicants" - so you are telling me that this is not clear from the PDF report??

I and many others do not see the definition of "Pending" what is in our minds matching the definition of "Pending" by USCIS. We believe that it is not yet concluded. Even USCIS itself is not clear. In trend chart under "All other pending" its total figure for national level is 279031 till July 2009. Where as in the Excel worksheet it is 233816 till July 2009( Worksheet is produced for the time period till the December 2009 but for July to Dec 2009 all visa categories have zero value thus data is till July 2009)

So I would request you to keep patience till we get "authentic" feedback from somebody. Many people are working on this in background. If you want to see the signs they are there in many other threads including recently declared FOIA and USCIS data comparison thread published by Pappu.

We can't be just "innocently simple minded" when USCIS itself publishes different data sets at different links and start believing the only data of a particular worksheet is correct just because USCIS declared it. If you try to compare both of these trend chart and excel worksheet with the April operating performance report declared by USCIS (needhelp! has posted it on this thread) then you get into more confusion and start seeing clear discrepency.

So choice is yours , patiently watching the input of others on this thread and start contributing in analysis OR keep on doing what you are doing unnecessarily.

[ronhira]

looks like uscis figured out that we r accessing the backlog data that they did not yet publish...... they pulled down the pdf document

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

this link is not working now.

[gcwait2007]

Good Analysis by Bharat Premi.

Hats off to you.

[arnab221]

Based on the mammoth number crunching can someone some guru please post a month by month priority date prediction for the time till EB2 becomes current ?

[prabasiodia]

They went from 2nd to 3rd level and from parents to children too. :D

The new link is: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/3rd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Children)/Green%20Card%20-%203rd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I485%20Reports.pdf

looks like uscis figured out that we r accessing the backlog data that they did not yet publish...... they pulled down the pdf document

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Parents)/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

this link is not working now.

[knsgsuresh]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory does it include Spouse applications also

CAN Some Senior members clarify my doubts:
==================================
USCIS release I-485 Employment-Based Inventory countyr wise. Is this Numbers listed every year for the Employment based category include applications filled for Spouse also?

If it is not included then we need to take in to account that for every 485 application we will bare minimum have 1 spoude 485 application that requires VISA Number.

Link from USCIS:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Str...%20Reports.pdf

[waitin_toolong]

I-485 is an individual application, so this list will have all the EB based I-485 that includes the spuse and children.

[sanju_dba]

I-485 Employment-Based Inventory does it include Spouse applications also

CAN Some Senior members clarify my doubts:
==================================
USCIS release I-485 Employment-Based Inventory countyr wise. Is this Numbers listed every year for the Employment based category include applications filled for Spouse also?

If it is not included then we need to take in to account that for every 485 application we will bare minimum have 1 spoude 485 application that requires VISA Number.

Link from USCIS:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Str...%20Reports.pdf

Looks like you have long way to catchup.