EB2 be current by Dec'09 ?? and EB3 ??

[sonia_sd]

Following yesterdays USCIS published report on Pending I-485 applications.

My Interpretation as follows:

Total country quota - 140,000

EB1 - 28.5% = 39,900
EB2 - 28.5% = 39,900
EB3 - 28.5% = 39,900

EB4 - 7.1% = 9,940
EB5 - 7.1% = 9,940

Now the Interesting Part Looking at the current trend there are only 3,650 EB4/EB5/EW apps this means 16200(appx) goes to EB1

Where EB1 current applicaitons 4,050 and available chunk 39,900 + 16200 spill over - 4,050 consumption = 52050(appx) visas spill over to EB2 HURRAH !!!!

EB2 Current apps 74,932 and available visas + spill over - required vias = 52050 + 39900 - 74932 = 17018 goes to EB3 ??

EB3's chunk 39900 + 17000= 57000 but chances are bit low to become current. Pls correct me if I am wrong :D

[sonia_sd]

Following yesterdays USCIS published report on Pending I-485 applications.

My Interpretation as follows:

Total country quota - 140,000

EB1 - 28.5% = 39,900
EB2 - 28.5% = 39,900
EB3 - 28.5% = 39,900

EB4 - 7.1% = 9,940
EB5 - 7.1% = 9,940

Now the Interesting Part Looking at the current trend there are only 3,650 EB4/EB5/EW apps this means 16200(appx) goes to EB1

Where EB1 current applicaitons 4,050 and available chunk 39,900 + 16200 spill over - 4,050 consumption = 52050(appx) visas spill over to EB2 HURRAH !!!!

EB2 Current apps 74,932 and available visas + spill over - required vias = 52050 + 39900 - 74932 = 17018 goes to EB3 ??

EB3's chunk 39900 + 17000= 57000 but chances are bit low to become current. Pls correct me if I am wrong :D



Not every petition may be approved though the visas are available.

[alterego]

You are assuming accuracy of USCIS data, which IMHO is very shaky ground, and you are assuming zero new EB4/5/1/2 filings, which is the height of folly.

Also have they stated whether they have counted dependents in the data on PD breakdown? I have not seen that clearly stated anywhere.

[TeddyKoochu]

I believe that if there has to be a steady 485 pipeline (Being current does not mean being approved) then yes we should see forward movement fast, Dec 09 seems to be very optimistic, but you never know it maybe true. But it looks definite that the date will be ahead of the actual approvals for this year.

[gc_on_demand]

There will be only 25 - 20k Spill for 2010. Given that India and CHINA Eb2 can cross mid 2006.
It will take another 2 years for Eb2 to make C and then we can see Spill over to Eb3.
If economy improves and we start seeing labor approval coming Spill be going to less and creating more wait time.

Eb3 needs VISA RECAPTURE badly. Eb2 guys can wait for couple of years to get GC. but still 2-3 years in given economy is too risky. Bottom line is WE need VISA RECAPTURE in order to clean all mess.

[geniousatwork]

This report only considers the pending application(the ones already filed) and it does not account for the ones who will file once the dates become current for a particular category and month.

Most of the EB2 people prior to Aug 2006 might have filed their applications when the dates became current last year. But the EB3 guys did not get the chance to do so and take advantage of EAD or AC21.


You also need to factor in about 15 % of the visas which go to CP 485s.


Considering all the above factors, I do not feel like it is as bad as we had expected.