Why is the EB3 availability date not Dec 03?

[vivache]

Ok .. let me give you the math before getting to the question: )

Looking at the numbers from USCIS: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/3rd%20Level%20(Left%20Nav%20Children)/Green%20Card%20-%203rd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I485%20Reports.pdf


140 k GC numbers every year
85% available for folks in US, which is 199k
Out of these 119 k visas available, 40k are Eb3 category ..
10% for country .. so India's numbers should be 4000 a year

There are 14000 Eb3 visas before mine
Out of these 4750 are from India

So maybe I get the GC in 1 year 2 months?
Starting from? next Oct 10, meaning GC in Dec 11?

7170 visa should be given this year with the Apr 01 cut off .. so roughly 7000 Eb3 visas available so in all probability I should get it next year Dec 10?

What is confusing is this?
As per the latest visa bulletin .. the Eb3 cut off for all countries is around jun 02
And there are about 14k eb3 numbers till Jun 02.. so isn't the cut off be something like Dec 03 .. as current date .. since that's what 40k GC numbers add to?
If 40k GC's available for Eb3 for 2009 ... why is the cut off date Jun 02 .. which accoutns for only 14k GC's?

[vivache]

Hey Gurus. Any answers :)

[varshadas]

I am not sure how you are seeing 14000 EB3 visa in totals. If you look at the table that says India, there are approx 8000 visas or so around Dec 02 for India alone. In addition, I believe the country quota is 7% and not 10% but I could be mistaken on that.

Since you would get approx 3000 EB3 visa's every year, that is why the PD is not moving.

[vivache]

well .. my priority date is July 2002 .. nd there are 14k eb3 visas wordwide .. until this date.
I agree it is 7%.
Either ways .. out of teh annual 119k visas available .. wouldn't 30% .. 40k be available for Eb3?
In that case .. why is the priority date July 02 ..w hich only accounts for 14k visas .. and not dec 03 .. which would account for 40k visas?

[ndbhatt]

You are counting one visa per person in EB3. Remember that applicant's family members too take away visas from these numbers. On an average it is considered as 2.5 visas per primary applicant.
Also, the last I remember, the country cap was 7% and not 10%, unless things have changed since then.

[GCOP]

The main reason for EB-3 Problem is LIFE ACT (245i act of year 2000) which allowed approximately 345,000 people to file for Adjustment of Status (Green cards). There was no separate quota approved by congress for these applicants, which resulted in using the regular quota ( limited 3000 + numbers of EB-3 India) since year 2001 to 2008...... and still in progress.
As per the DOS data, Total of 111,876 EB immigrant visas have been issued to EB-3 (India) from year 2001 to 2008, BUT EB-3 (India) Priority Date is still in year April 2001 (as most of these visa numbers were/ are being issued to 245i applicants and their relatives at US Consulates abroad.
We have no problem with 245i applicants or their relatives BUT those visa numbers should not be counted against the EB Visa quota.

[vivache]

I agree .. I missed the 2.5 people per application, which does make sense.
The 245i sounds like an unknown .. since I have no idea how many visa will go from eb3 for 245i. Or for that matter even for EB2

This could be a dumb question .. but any idea . when I can get my GC for EB3 .. July 2002 priority date?

Thanks

[Brightsider]

Permit me to differ....with ND Bhatt.
With all due respect, I would like to point out that visas to dependents may not be the issue. The report includes all pending I-485 cases. It does not differentiate between principal applicants and derivative-dependents.

The problem must be elsewhere. Possibly, they may not have released complete and accurate figures, though I would hate to believe that. For a governmental agency that is answerable to Congress, it will be difficult for them to obfuscate beyond a point.

You are right on the 245 (i) issue. I do know a friend whose wife and child went to the consulate when their PDs became current. Since it was consular processing, it was not a case of I-485....they use some other form DS1030 or some such form.

That said, hang in there. Enjoy life while in the queue.
Best

[GCOP]

245i applicants ( the people who were out of status) were allowed to file for adjustment of status under LIFE ACT of year 2000 passed by congress. There were no additional Immigrant visas approved for these applications and they are being issued visas from the regular quota.
Following is the link for LIFE ACT
Full Text of Immigration Bill--12/15/00 (http://www.immigrationlinks.com/news/news677.htm)

We are in a very difficult situation. Unless congress passes some legislative change, it is very hard to determine the further progress in EB-3 India Category. I really do hope that, most of the 245i application visa adjudication would have been done. I have also heard that relatives of 245i applicants are being issued immigrant visas at US Consulates abroad. So these additional visas on top of 245i applications make it very hard for any prediction.

EB-3(India) & ALL EB categories need very URGENT HELP from congress, as this situation has arised due to 245i LIFE ACT.
WE REQUEST CONGRESS, TO PASS LEGISLATION - NOT TO COUNT ANY 245I VISAS AGAINST REGULAR QUOTA ( TO EXEMPT 245I VISAS FROM THE QUOTA).

[vivache]

1. I would like to believe that all visa numbers include the dependents etc .. since USCIS has the numbers.
2. At the same time .. maybe 245i is kicking in .. else the priority dates would be different

The only thing I'm not clear about is this:
Is 245i only affecting eb3 and not eb2?

And also from the answers it looks like, inspite of uscis making the numbers public .. it doesn't help us make a prediction

[GCOP]

There were many 245i applicants who filed under EB-3 category than EB-2 category. So EB-2 is less affected due to less 245i applicants and most of the problem is experienced in EB-3 categories.
We all should request congress, not to penalize us for playing by the rules and further request to exclude 245i visa numbers from regular quota.
I have already contacted the offices of Senators of my State & Rep. of House also. We all should contact our law makers.

[khodalmd]

Bingo. This is the real root cause. Lot of 245 i applicant's family members' CP application are pending and not counting to pending I 485 inventory. It will take long to come out of 2001.

The main reason for EB-3 Problem is LIFE ACT (245i act of year 2000) which allowed approximately 345,000 people to file for Adjustment of Status (Green cards). There was no separate quota approved by congress for these applicants, which resulted in using the regular quota ( limited 3000 + numbers of EB-3 India) since year 2001 to 2008...... and still in progress.
As per the DOS data, Total of 111,876 EB immigrant visas have been issued to EB-3 (India) from year 2001 to 2008, BUT EB-3 (India) Priority Date is still in year April 2001 (as most of these visa numbers were/ are being issued to 245i applicants and their relatives at US Consulates abroad.
We have no problem with 245i applicants or their relatives BUT those visa numbers should not be counted against the EB Visa quota.