ch102
11-20-2009, 12:09 PM
Just how bad is the backlog? (http://imminfo.com/Blog/articles.php?art_id=100&start=1)
Following the release by the USCIS of their backlog statistics in September, many prospective immigrants began to reevaluate the idea of upgrading to higher preference classifications. Central to any such decision is the answer to the question “How long do I have to wait if I remain in my present classification?” The purpose of this article is to help applicants try and determine just how long that wait will be.
The answer to that question, like most things, is complex. It depends on several factors that are unknown at this time. These include:
· There is an unknown number of pending AOS cases that have not yet been classified or reviewed.
· In the case of EB2, there is an unknown number of EB3 applicants who are actively in the process of upgrading to EB2.
· There are additional cases in the pipeline, not accounted for by the available backlog information.
While it is not possible to predict with accuracy precisely how long it will be before specific applicants will receive immigrant visas, it is possible to get some idea of the minimum waiting time. That is, it is possible to determine how long it will be, at an absolute minimum, before a visa number becomes available. The actual waiting time will be longer than the minimum time, but this will at least give people a rough idea of just what they are looking at.
Let’s first look at the employment based second preference category (EB2). For purposes of this discussion, we will look at the visa waiting times for China, India, and Worldwide.
The “Worldwide” chargeability area is “current” – meaning that there are more visas available under the quota that there are qualified applicants. This means that anyone chargeable to the Worldwide EB2 category has immediate access to a visa. This condition will remain so for at least the next several years.
Because there are unused visa numbers within the EB2 Worldwide allocation, the remaining numbers may be used by people who are otherwise eligible, but for the single state limit (i.e., citizens of China and India). These applicants may use the leftover EB2 numbers as though they were chargeable to the Worldwide category, as long as visas remain available. That is, those with the oldest priority dates, irrespective of country of birth, are at the head of the line for EB2 visas.
Let’s take a look at the backlog information for EB2 visas shown on the CIS website, arranged, by priority dates, area of charge and year:
The Worldwide allocation for EB2 is roughly 40,000 visas annually, plus all unused EB1 numbers. For fiscal year 2008, a total of 35,590 employment-based first preference visas were issued. Due to the failure of the CIS to adjudicate enough family based adjustment of status cases, about 25,000 visas from that quota fell over into the employment based quota and a total of 70,135 EB2 visas were issued. For fiscal year 2009, there were considerably fewer family based visas available for use by the EB categories. For FY 2010, the State Department estimates that there will be only about 5,000 such additional visas available. For our purposes, we can assume that EB1 will have about 5,000 leftover visas and another 5,000 will become available from the family based quota. This means that the EB2 visa availability will be approximately 50,000 for this fiscal year.
If we assume that all of the demand shown on the CIS website remains, and that there is no additional demand, the total of pre-approved EB2 cases pending before the CIS with priority dates earlier than 2007 is almost 52,000. In reality, this demand represents about two-thirds of the actual demand, so the likelihood is that the EB2 cutoff date will not move beyond May, 2006 by the end of fiscal year 2010 (September 30, 2010).
If the EB2 cutoff date does reach May, 2006 by the end of FY 2010, then it would likely reach the end of calendar year 2008 (and probably go into early 2009) by the end of fiscal year 2011.
A word of warning is in order at this point. Our office alone has received about 150 inquiries in the last couple of months by people with established EB3 priority dates who wish to file new PERM applications so that they may qualify for EB2. When they do, they will take their EB3 priority dates with them. This means that they will enter the EB2 waiting list at a point much earlier in time.
Our office is but one of many receiving these inquiries. I have to believe that somewhere between 7,500 and 12,000 people are actively in the process of upgrading their preference classifications right now. As the months progress, this number will increase. All of these people will move onto the EB2 waiting list with older priority dates, in some cases as early as 2002. When this happens, it will push those with more recent priority dates back in line, increasing the time they must wait for visa availability
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Following the release by the USCIS of their backlog statistics in September, many prospective immigrants began to reevaluate the idea of upgrading to higher preference classifications. Central to any such decision is the answer to the question “How long do I have to wait if I remain in my present classification?” The purpose of this article is to help applicants try and determine just how long that wait will be.
The answer to that question, like most things, is complex. It depends on several factors that are unknown at this time. These include:
· There is an unknown number of pending AOS cases that have not yet been classified or reviewed.
· In the case of EB2, there is an unknown number of EB3 applicants who are actively in the process of upgrading to EB2.
· There are additional cases in the pipeline, not accounted for by the available backlog information.
While it is not possible to predict with accuracy precisely how long it will be before specific applicants will receive immigrant visas, it is possible to get some idea of the minimum waiting time. That is, it is possible to determine how long it will be, at an absolute minimum, before a visa number becomes available. The actual waiting time will be longer than the minimum time, but this will at least give people a rough idea of just what they are looking at.
Let’s first look at the employment based second preference category (EB2). For purposes of this discussion, we will look at the visa waiting times for China, India, and Worldwide.
The “Worldwide” chargeability area is “current” – meaning that there are more visas available under the quota that there are qualified applicants. This means that anyone chargeable to the Worldwide EB2 category has immediate access to a visa. This condition will remain so for at least the next several years.
Because there are unused visa numbers within the EB2 Worldwide allocation, the remaining numbers may be used by people who are otherwise eligible, but for the single state limit (i.e., citizens of China and India). These applicants may use the leftover EB2 numbers as though they were chargeable to the Worldwide category, as long as visas remain available. That is, those with the oldest priority dates, irrespective of country of birth, are at the head of the line for EB2 visas.
Let’s take a look at the backlog information for EB2 visas shown on the CIS website, arranged, by priority dates, area of charge and year:
The Worldwide allocation for EB2 is roughly 40,000 visas annually, plus all unused EB1 numbers. For fiscal year 2008, a total of 35,590 employment-based first preference visas were issued. Due to the failure of the CIS to adjudicate enough family based adjustment of status cases, about 25,000 visas from that quota fell over into the employment based quota and a total of 70,135 EB2 visas were issued. For fiscal year 2009, there were considerably fewer family based visas available for use by the EB categories. For FY 2010, the State Department estimates that there will be only about 5,000 such additional visas available. For our purposes, we can assume that EB1 will have about 5,000 leftover visas and another 5,000 will become available from the family based quota. This means that the EB2 visa availability will be approximately 50,000 for this fiscal year.
If we assume that all of the demand shown on the CIS website remains, and that there is no additional demand, the total of pre-approved EB2 cases pending before the CIS with priority dates earlier than 2007 is almost 52,000. In reality, this demand represents about two-thirds of the actual demand, so the likelihood is that the EB2 cutoff date will not move beyond May, 2006 by the end of fiscal year 2010 (September 30, 2010).
If the EB2 cutoff date does reach May, 2006 by the end of FY 2010, then it would likely reach the end of calendar year 2008 (and probably go into early 2009) by the end of fiscal year 2011.
A word of warning is in order at this point. Our office alone has received about 150 inquiries in the last couple of months by people with established EB3 priority dates who wish to file new PERM applications so that they may qualify for EB2. When they do, they will take their EB3 priority dates with them. This means that they will enter the EB2 waiting list at a point much earlier in time.
Our office is but one of many receiving these inquiries. I have to believe that somewhere between 7,500 and 12,000 people are actively in the process of upgrading their preference classifications right now. As the months progress, this number will increase. All of these people will move onto the EB2 waiting list with older priority dates, in some cases as early as 2002. When this happens, it will push those with more recent priority dates back in line, increasing the time they must wait for visa availability
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