IV Focus: Not just USCIS, State Deptt can help us

[jhaalaa]

Please refer the 2009 statistics published by Department of State:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableV.pdf

Country 1st 2nd 3rd 3rdOther 3rdTotal 4th 4thRelig 4thTotal
India 6,672 10,124 2,222 84 2,306 511 260 771

Example EB3 India received just 2306 out of the total allocable 2842 visas (Pls. excuse any typos).

The latest 11Dec2009 USCIS statistics does not include the backlogs at the DOS Consulates.

The IV core team has built good relationships with the USCIS and it has helped get the waiting numbers.

We need another IV focus group that can build a similar relationship with the DOS too. It is the DOS that manages the Visa Allocations and the Visa Bulletin dates movement. The DOS can have a balanced movement of the priority dates in the visa bulletin so that it does not create a 'Current' for most categories while keeping a few cases backlogged for decades.

After analyzing the waiting application counts, I concluded that the entire backlogs can be balanced to evenness and even eliminated in a few years, if the DOS takes a balanced wholistic approach in the movement of priority dates.

I opine that we may not need any legislative reform, and the above can be achieved administratively by educating and convincing the DOS. The IV core and leadership has been good with the USCIS, its also time to develop similar cooperation with the Department of State.

[sunty]

Some of us have been urging this for a while now. We need to open a communication channel with the DOS Visa Office.

While the long term solution of Visa-Recapture provisions and CIR are the way to go, in the short-term, quarterly spill-over will reduce the backlog numbers for I/C. But I think only EB2 applicants are more interested in this as this does not do much for EB3-I/C category

[jhaalaa]

A balanced PD movement means slow and steady Priority date progress for ALL categories.

It means that by keeping a little backlog in other categories, the severely backlogged categories can benefit too.

For example a person getting a 485 approval in 1 year may have to wait for 18-24months, but a person who has been backlogged for a decade or more may hope to see action in say 7 years.

The DOS has the ability to manage it administratively.

Thus with help from DOS, its possible for EB3-I/C to be hopeful.

[eastindia]

If quarterly spillover happens, EB2 China will protest as Indians will take more visas from them. EB3 ROW will be worst affected. EB3 ROW dates will not move at all as all visas will be taken by EB2 and no unused spillover will go to them. EB3 India will also not get any help from it.
So it is only to help EB2 India. EB2 India is already the good category to be in today. So I do not think Visa officer will try to help people who are already better off. He will want to help people like EB3 India who are at the bottom of problems.

[kondur_007]

If quarterly spillover happens, EB2 China will protest as Indians will take more visas from them. EB3 ROW will be worst affected. EB3 ROW dates will not move at all as all visas will be taken by EB2 and no unused spillover will go to them. EB3 India will also not get any help from it.
So it is only to help EB2 India. EB2 India is already the good category to be in today. So I do not think Visa officer will try to help people who are already better off. He will want to help people like EB3 India who are at the bottom of problems.

Well, I think you are quite wrong in making above statement.

It is true that EB2 India gets the most benefit from quarterly spill over. However, EB2 China also gets similar (although smaller) benefit from it. Yearly spill over will hurt EB2 China as much as it will to EB2 India.

What will happen with yearly spill over, is that they will make entire EB2 current and give GCs to all preadjudicated applications. Rest will then spill to EB3. Now in EB3, they will have to distribute that "in preference of PDs" and not country of birth. So "ENTIRE" EB3 category will have same cut off date; benefit will got to EB3 India (the most), EB3 china (second) and probably none at all to EB3 ROW (as it is already ahead and will probably not get ANY spill over at all.

Quarterly spill over: Dates of EB2 India and China will advance substantially throughout the year and hopefully will cross July 2007 BEFORE May or June 2010. When more people from EB2 India and China (with PDs after July Fiasco) will file 485 and get the rest of GCs in the last quarter (provided USCIS adjudicates them quickly; which they have shown they can). No spill over will occur to EB3 at all. Worst hit would be EB3 India (the one that gets the most benefit with yearly spill over as I explained above).

In any case, I donot think DOS and USCIS has any system in place that can actually peform "quarterly spill over". This entire business of "quarterly spill over" is the product of someone's HEAD and neither DOS nor USCIS has ever showed any signal that it is even considered....nor they have a mechanism to do it. So spill over will likely occur only in the last quarter.

Good Luck to all....

[vin13]

Well, I think you are quite wrong in making above statement.

It is true that EB2 India gets the most benefit from quarterly spill over. However, EB2 China also gets similar (although smaller) benefit from it. Yearly spill over will hurt EB2 China as much as it will to EB2 India.

What will happen with yearly spill over, is that they will make entire EB2 current and give GCs to all preadjudicated applications. Rest will then spill to EB3. Now in EB3, they will have to distribute that "in preference of PDs" and not country of birth. So "ENTIRE" EB3 category will have same cut off date; benefit will got to EB3 India (the most), EB3 china (second) and probably none at all to EB3 ROW (as it is already ahead and will probably not get ANY spill over at all.

Quarterly spill over: Dates of EB2 India and China will advance substantially throughout the year and hopefully will cross July 2007 BEFORE May or June 2010. When more people from EB2 India and China (with PDs after July Fiasco) will file 485 and get the rest of GCs in the last quarter (provided USCIS adjudicates them quickly; which they have shown they can). No spill over will occur to EB3 at all. Worst hit would be EB3 India (the one that gets the most benefit with yearly spill over as I explained above).

In any case, I donot think DOS and USCIS has any system in place that can actually peform "quarterly spill over". This entire business of "quarterly spill over" is the product of someone's HEAD and neither DOS nor USCIS has ever showed any signal that it is even considered....nor they have a mechanism to do it. So spill over will likely occur only in the last quarter.

Good Luck to all....

I would doubt EB-2 will become current for India this year. So whether we have quarterly or annual spillover it will not affect EB-3 in any way.

[kondur_007]

I would doubt EB-2 will become current for India this year. So whether we have quarterly or annual spillover it will not affect EB-3 in any way.

Yes, I completely agree with you that EB3 will not be affected either way unless EB2 India becomes current.

Now, looking at the USCIS "inventory", it does look like EB2 India should become current. Although my personal "educated guess" is that it will probably move to end of 2007 or somewhere in 2008 by the end of fiscal year. (this is in contrast with DOS "prediction" of end of 2005 - as published in last VB).

[jhaalaa]

Please refer the 2009 visa statistics published by the Department of State here http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableV.pdf .

According to the INA rules, in simple terms, every country-of-birth is limited to 7.1% of the, 28.6% visas in the Employment based preference category, from a total of 140,000 immigrant visas issued every year. This means 2842 visas could possibly be made available to form I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) applicants for a specific EB preference category who were all born in the same country.

For applicants in the Employment based preference category 3 (EB3), for India, only 2,306 visas were allocated instead of the possibly allocable count of 2,842 visas. Please note that ‘EB3-India’ is the worst backlogged (preference category and country combination) in terms of employment based visa demand. Please compare this to 5,540 EB3 visas for Philippines, 4,001 for South Korea in the same EB3 preference category. Also, applicants from another severely backlogged EB3 (preference category and country combination) for China received just 1,077 visas compared to the possibly allocable count of 2,842 visas.

Please excuse me if I missed something here.

[TeddyKoochu]

Yes, I completely agree with you that EB3 will not be affected either way unless EB2 India becomes current.

Now, looking at the USCIS "inventory", it does look like EB2 India should become current. Although my personal "educated guess" is that it will probably move to end of 2007 or somewhere in 2008 by the end of fiscal year. (this is in contrast with DOS "prediction" of end of 2005 - as published in last VB).

I believe your explanations and predictions look very realistic. Lets see what happens though.

[sunty]

The quarterly spill-over seems unfair to EB3-I/C. But in my view it is better than annual spill-over because of the horizontal spill-over rule. No matter when the spill-over happens, EB2-I/C will always have priority in visa allocation over EB3-I/C.

In fact with quarterly spill-over, EB2-I/C backlog will be cleared faster, PDs will advance further and thus spill-over visas for EB3-I/C might be availble sooner (but more EB2-I/C will be filed too)

[kshitijnt]

I support quarterly spillover. The end of year spill over only suits row jumpers.

[jhaalaa]

SCENARIO 1: If there is less than 5K demand for EB2-I from Consular processing -
forget Qtrly spillovers or not, EB2-I can get current this year end (Max end of 2011).
If ROW PDs are moved slowly too, the EB3-I, EB3-C and EB3-P backlogs can move very fast into Early 2005.


SCENARIO 2: If there are a lot of CP backlogs, then expect DOS to move PDs slowly.

DOS has not been as forthcoming as the USCIS in sharing backlog counts. Hence the need for collaboration with DOS to "manage" the PD movement and eliminate backlogs in a "balanced" fashion.