Is SEP visa bulletin a sign of better days ahead for GC aspirants??

[santa123]

Dear IVans,
Now that the SEP VB is out, what does this indicate in terms of
- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
- awareness about visa wastage
- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
- USCIS efficiencies

Pls share your thoughts. Thanks!

[leo2606]

I hate to say, f*** the future bulletins. WHY??? I am EB3 waiting for looooooooooooooong long time. No hope.

- future VBs - I CARE SHIT ABOT IT.
- visa availability in the coming months - NO HOPE FOR EB3
- awareness about visa wastage - YES, I AM AWARE, WHAT DIFFERENCE IT MAKES
- dates becoming current for most EB categories - NO HOPE, MAY BE EB2- I AM STILL HAPPY FOR THOSE GUYS
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us - NO F'ING LIGHT I SEE
- USCIS efficiencies -CRAP, I DON'T HAVE WORDS TO DESCRIBE IT

Sorry for my words, I am stuck in the shit, I am just venting not on you santa123.
If you are real Santa I am requesting you for a GC gift this Christmas ;-)

Originally Posted by santa123

Dear IVans,
Now that the SEP VB is out, what does this indicate in terms of
- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
- awareness about visa wastage
- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
- USCIS efficiencies

Pls share your thoughts. Thanks!

[hanu0913]

Originally Posted by ImmiUser
Hi Ron,

DOS moved the bulletin further for EB2 India. I remember you were telling in earlier blogs that you have got information from DOS that there are only a handful of visas left over. So I am not sure what DOS/USCIS is up to. USICIS is adjudicating all the applications for PD 2006 and beyond while putting the 2004 and 2005 applications in dark.

It would have been much helpful had DOS put forth the no. of visas still left over.

What's your take on the latest visa bulletin.

Thanks


Answer by Ron

They did say that they only had "a handful" of visas left. This advance is not necessarily inconsistent with that earlier statement. In order to use up visas and avoid waste, the Visa Office has to manage the quota to make sure that there are enough applications AND ADJUDICATIONS to exhaust the quota. They have no control over the CIS, but they do have control over the overseas consular posts.

What this tells me is that the CIS is doing nothing (or next to nothing) to use up India and China E2 numbers. By advancing the cutoff dates last month, VO was able to make more cases at overseas posts available for close out. Since the CIS obviously did not use many China/India E2 numbers in July and August, VO has had to advance the cutoff dates again to make enough cases pending at consular posts available to use up those few remaining numbers.
__________________

[sc3]

Originally Posted by santa123

Dear IVans,
Now that the SEP VB is out, what does this indicate in terms of
- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
- awareness about visa wastage
- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
- USCIS efficiencies

Pls share your thoughts. Thanks!

USCIS is not efficient, and in fact they are playing with EB3s. There needs to be better transparency, and better adherence to the laws.

[santa123]

what is surprising is that most of the IVans predicted that the SEP VB will make the dates U for most categories and also the dates will retro. Also Ron Gotcher too predicted that the dates will retro.

[kondur_007]

Good points: Here is what I think:


- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
FOR THIS I HAVE DISCUSSED DETAILED PREDICTION IN FOLLOWING THREAD:

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...ad.php?t=20863 (October Visa bulletin - discussion)


- awareness about visa wastage
DEFINITELY A MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT. ALL THE HAPPENINGS OF THIS YEAR (USCIS AND DOL DEPOSITIONS FOR IMMIGRATION BILLS ETC..) THERE IS CLEARLY MUCH MORE AWARENESS ABOUT VISA WASTAGE AND IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE TRYING REAL HARD TO AVOID IT...

- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
I GUESS BOTH THESE THINGS ARE THE SAME. I THINK EB2 AND EB3 ROW WILL BE CURRENT BY THE END OF THE FISCAL YEAR AND EB3 INDIA AND CHINA WILL MOVE FORWARD SIGNIFICANTLY TO USE UP THE OVERFLOW (AS THERE ARE NO 485S FILED AFTER JULY 2007). HOPEFULLY MOST EB2 WILL GET THEIR GCS IN NEXT TWO YEARS. ADDITIONAL ONE YEAR FOR EB3 INDIA AND CHINA (ONLY A GUESS)

- USCIS efficiencies
NO COMMENT ON THIS: THEY PROVED IT AGAIN....THEY CAN NEVER BE EFFICIENT...EITHER THEY DONT HAVE RESOURCES OR THEY DONT HAVE MECHANISM TO USE THEM (LIKELY LATER SCENARIO)..AND NOTHING WILL HAPPEN WITHOUT MAJOR RESTRUCTURING OF THE SYSTEM. EVEN AFTER EVERYTHING BECOMES CURRENT, THERE WILL BE PEOPLE WITH PD IN 2001 AND 2002 STILL WAITING.

[insbaby]

Originally Posted by santa123

Dear IVans,
Now that the SEP VB is out, what does this indicate in terms of
- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
- awareness about visa wastage
- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
- USCIS efficiencies

Pls share your thoughts. Thanks!

- future VBs : WE MUST CHECK WITH FORTUNE TELLERS
- visa availability in the coming months: ASTROLOGY MAY HELP.
- awareness about visa wastage: PART OF USCIS POLICY
- dates becoming current for most EB categories: MOST OF THEM ARE CURRENT NOW
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us: WHERE IS THE TUNNEL FOR EB3?
- USCIS efficiencies: INCREASING STEADILY

[santa123]

Originally Posted by kondur_007

Good points: Here is what I think:


- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
FOR THIS I HAVE DISCUSSED DETAILED PREDICTION IN FOLLOWING THREAD:

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...ad.php?t=20863 (October Visa bulletin - discussion)


- awareness about visa wastage
DEFINITELY A MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT. ALL THE HAPPENINGS OF THIS YEAR (USCIS AND DOL DEPOSITIONS FOR IMMIGRATION BILLS ETC..) THERE IS CLEARLY MUCH MORE AWARENESS ABOUT VISA WASTAGE AND IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE TRYING REAL HARD TO AVOID IT...

- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
I GUESS BOTH THESE THINGS ARE THE SAME. I THINK EB2 AND EB3 ROW WILL BE CURRENT BY THE END OF THE FISCAL YEAR AND EB3 INDIA AND CHINA WILL MOVE FORWARD SIGNIFICANTLY TO USE UP THE OVERFLOW (AS THERE ARE NO 485S FILED AFTER JULY 2007). HOPEFULLY MOST EB2 WILL GET THEIR GCS IN NEXT TWO YEARS. ADDITIONAL ONE YEAR FOR EB3 INDIA AND CHINA (ONLY A GUESS)

- USCIS efficiencies
NO COMMENT ON THIS: THEY PROVED IT AGAIN....THEY CAN NEVER BE EFFICIENT...EITHER THEY DONT HAVE RESOURCES OR THEY DONT HAVE MECHANISM TO USE THEM (LIKELY LATER SCENARIO)..AND NOTHING WILL HAPPEN WITHOUT MAJOR RESTRUCTURING OF THE SYSTEM. EVEN AFTER EVERYTHING BECOMES CURRENT, THERE WILL BE PEOPLE WITH PD IN 2001 AND 2002 STILL WAITING.

Bottomline: CHANGE is happening... Hope and prayers are helping... Good luck to all

[srkamath]

USCIS is trying to make EB2 all countries Current sometime during FY 2009. Of course "a few" 2004, 2005 cases will still be pending past Oct08 but hopefully not too many.

If EB1 and EB2 are shown as current soon, then the DOS can transfer the so-called "spillover" into EB3 ROW, then into EB3 IN & CH.

Based on available numbers, EB3 India / China will see rapid movement in dates April 09 Visa Bulletin onwards.

What will happen during 2009 in all likelihood is the following,

Almost all EB1 spillover will go to EB3. (~ 25k)
Some of EB1 and all of EB2 spillover will go to EB2 IN/CH (~ 10k to 15k)
In 2009, there will be no more Name Check delays - therefore expect rapid EB3 approvals after April 09.

[rcr_bulk]

Originally Posted by santa123

Dear IVans,
Now that the SEP VB is out, what does this indicate in terms of
- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
- awareness about visa wastage
- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
- USCIS efficiencies

Pls share your thoughts. Thanks!

USCIS efficiencies : They are not efficient. People with PD in 2002,2003,2004 are still waiting and that are in 2006 getting released. Where is FIFO and efficiency in their process? No transparency in their process.

[willigetagc]

Originally Posted by santa123

Dear IVans,
Now that the SEP VB is out, what does this indicate in terms of
- future VBs
- visa availability in the coming months
- awareness about visa wastage
- dates becoming current for most EB categories
- light at the end of tunnel for most of us
- USCIS efficiencies

Pls share your thoughts. Thanks!

We will know for sure after Sep 30. If they don't waste any visas then it is a good sign.

But if they do waste visas, inspite of all the leeway, requests, advise, whatever they have been given, then God help us.

[delhirocks]

I completely disagree..There is this huge debate in IV about EB2 & EB3 IN. Everyone is looking at the dates and predicting that EB2 I will be current sometime in '09. This is perceived as injustice to EB3. What people don't realize is that USCIS is not processing. What good is a forward movement if there are no tangible benefits for folks who have already filed AOS.

Forward movement in Sep VB magnifies the USCIS inefficiencies. Despite the rhetoric on the board, this is -ve development in my view. Empirical evidence suggests that there are 1000s of cases pending for pre 06 EB2I & C and yet USCIS could not get that back log cleared. They obviously could not process enough to exhaust the available visa numbers and thus the forward movement by DOS.

This bodes well for CP filers…good for them.

Originally Posted by srkamath

USCIS is trying to make EB2 all countries Current sometime during FY 2009. Of course "a few" 2004, 2005 cases will still be pending past Oct08 but hopefully not too many.

If EB1 and EB2 are shown as current soon, then the DOS can transfer the so-called "spillover" into EB3 ROW, then into EB3 IN & CH.

Based on available numbers, EB3 India / China will see rapid movement in dates April 09 Visa Bulletin onwards.

What will happen during 2009 in all likely hood is the following,

Almost all EB1 spillover will go to EB3. (~ 25k)
Some of EB1 and all of EB2 spillover will go to EB2 IN/CH (~ 10k to 15k)
In 2009, there will be no more Name Check delays - therefore expect rapid EB3 approvals after April 09.

[pitha]

I like your optimistic attitude but unfortunately I don’t share it because of past and current behavior of USCIS, like for instance how they willfully disregarded the 180 day name check memo. Do you really believe them when they say name check will be cleared in 2009, just like the current name check memo the fbi name check clearance will be thrown in a dustbin. If by a miracle name check is solved they will come up with some other check delay for example IBIS name check delay. the bottom line is if there is a will there will be a way, USCIS has no will what so ever to help us. Good luck to everyone but just build a reservoir of patience because if you have hope on USCIS you will pay dearly.

Originally Posted by srkamath

USCIS is trying to make EB2 all countries Current sometime during FY 2009. Of course "a few" 2004, 2005 cases will still be pending past Oct08 but hopefully not too many.

If EB1 and EB2 are shown as current soon, then the DOS can transfer the so-called "spillover" into EB3 ROW, then into EB3 IN & CH.

Based on available numbers, EB3 India / China will see rapid movement in dates April 09 Visa Bulletin onwards.

What will happen during 2009 in all likely hood is the following,

Almost all EB1 spillover will go to EB3. (~ 25k)
Some of EB1 and all of EB2 spillover will go to EB2 IN/CH (~ 10k to 15k)
In 2009, there will be no more Name Check delays - therefore expect rapid EB3 approvals after April 09.

[immiusa]

I think USCIS is working towards reducing the backlogs. It could be starting point for all EB community to feel better

With IV success, I foresee the EB categories as current at any point of time. And GC process is less than 3 years for any EB category

[chmur]

Originally Posted by srkamath

USCIS is trying to make EB2 all countries Current sometime during FY 2009. Of course "a few" 2004, 2005 cases will still be pending past Oct08 but hopefully not too many.

If EB1 and EB2 are shown as current soon, then the DOS can transfer the so-called "spillover" into EB3 ROW, then into EB3 IN & CH.

Based on available numbers, EB3 India / China will see rapid movement in dates April 09 Visa Bulletin onwards.

What will happen during 2009 in all likely hood is the following,

Almost all EB1 spillover will go to EB3. (~ 25k)
Some of EB1 and all of EB2 spillover will go to EB2 IN/CH (~ 10k to 15k)
In 2009, there will be no more Name Check delays - therefore expect rapid EB3 approvals after April 09.

From VB

"Third: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide level, plus any numbers not required by first and second preferences, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers". "


First, your scenario is overly optimistic . Even then EB3 can use a max of 10,000 of such visas and pass on the rest to the other workers category.

Which basically means Eb3s with PDs> 2004 will get screwed even in a very optimistic scenario.

Worse is Eb2s do not have such a cap . So not a drop trickles down till Eb2 is completely satiated.

Assume HR5882 gets signed by president and visas are distributed according to current laws .....Eb3 will get some benefit but not much. Infact everyone other than Eb3 will get maximum benefit including famili-based, other workers etc.


Moral of the story - Eb3s with PD > 04 ....port to Eb2 ...if you can...now