EB2/EB3 slow forward movement ahead in 2009

[pappu]

Originally Posted by senthil1

Eb2 will move gradually but it may move up to 2006 or 2007 as Eb1 spill over and Eb1 and Eb2 spillover from other countries will be transferred to Indian and Chinese Eb2. Again it depends on how many people are waiting in Eb2

I do not have the numbers in front of me, but I think the EB1 spillover numbers have been reduced over time. EB1 gets lot of usage in the EB1C (multinational managers) for India.

[vkannan]

Looking at the .PDFs and the law on spillover, I agree with MPADAPAs analysis. Still hope that there would be spillovers from unused EB visa...sure it will be less compared to last year....but atleast feel/hope it would be enought to get through 2006....atleast for EB2 guys....

[Jerrome]

i agree.There are 2 reasons.
1. Last year EB2(I) received only 7K primary EB2(14kTotal/2).My guess is that there are definitly more than 7K pending for EB2(I) before 2005.

2. This year there won't be much FB spillover.So we may not even get 7K for EB2(I) this year.

[widad2020]

I think MPADAPA' assumption about FB quota usage is not correct and I completely agree with realizeit.
Greatwork .

Originally Posted by realizeit

I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!

[MDix]

That's absolutely right.

Originally Posted by realizeit

I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!

Thanks,
MDix

[mpadapa]

Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/u...1----000-.html

Originally Posted by realizeit

I personally think Mr. MPADAPA's assumption is wrong. Last year (2008), the spillover came from Family quota of 2008. Spillover from Family or Employment quota of a particular year cannot be given to the following year. So the fact that there is nothing left from the family quota of 2008 doesn't change any situation here.

So, this year the spillover that Employment category can get from Family quota will be the unused numbers of 2009 Family quota.
This is just my thought!

[dskhabra]

EB2 I should get more spill over from EB2 ROW that what it got last year. The number of labor approvals is very less after June 2008( someone posted it earlier in some other thread). EB2 ROW is always current and I think the usage should be low this year.

[MDix]

Thanks for the link . After reading the doc your analysis does make sense.
I am just confused that how they assigned 70K EB2 visas in 2008. Because EB2 share is
40k + 4k(EB1 left over)+? how many FB = 70k . So from above it looks like all FB leftover went to EB2.

Please clearify.

Thanks,
Mdix

Originally Posted by mpadapa

Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/u...1----000-.html

[LostInGCProcess]

With all these analysis, is there any formula to actually predict when one could get the GC? I was just curious to know when I could potentially get my GC although I stopped worrying about it a very long time ago.

Thanks.

[nixstor]

Originally Posted by mpadapa

Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/u...1----000-.html

My 0.02

mpadapa,

Thats a good analysis. As you noted EB-2 India got only 14K visas as opposed to other predictions of 30-32K visas. I have long said that the variable here is how EB1 and EB-2 ROW demand numbers. A lot of folks assumed that all the spill over will end up in the EB-2 I/C lap. It does not as long as there is no retrogression across the entire EB-2 category severely, making the old PD golden (this is not going to happen) or there is very less demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW numbers.

While I agree with your analysis, I feel that the number of employers/applicants filing for Labor/140/485 has started a downward spiral in 2008. This means lesser demand for EB1 and EB-2 ROW numbers making the numbers available to EB-2 I & C. Again, it is very well possible that there are just enough number of people from both Eb1 & EB-2 ROW categories left & entering in the system to deny the numbers to EB-2 I & C. Unless the state of the economy continues like this, shedding 600K jobs in one month, equal to number jobs in the state of Maine, we can't say that EB-2 I & C can become close to current or leap into 2007 and beyond. Then we might be current and have a GC but the economic situation would be so worse that people don't care for GC. God Forbid we have to see that and lets hope and pray that the Stimulus will resuscitate the economy

[LostInGCProcess]

Originally Posted by sachug22

I found the formual still working on the variables :-)

Wow!! that was so simple, Thanks....

[realizeit]

Still I disagree my friend. I know, law is the law! What I am disagreeing is your interpretation and conclusion.

In reality, towards the end of the Fiscal year, if USCIS/State Dept finds that visas will go unused in one category, they can use the spill over rules. So, if there are some potential unused visas in Family category they can add it to Employment category and vice versa. This will all work in the same year. It will not work or get transferred to a following year. In your initial argument, you said, because all the family visas for 2008 are completely used, we won't get anything from that category as spill over during this year (2009).

If your argument is correct, there won't be any need for recapture laws that we all are working for. If the unused can be given to the next year, no visa will get wasted. USCIS/DOS can just give the unused in family category to Employment category in the following year and vice versa.

In reality that is not the case. Visa number in one year will not flow to the next. So, your original argument is completely wrong. If there is nothing left in family category for the year 2008, that has nothing to do with the expected spill over to Employment category from family category in 2009.

In my opinion, law is complex and snippets of the law from here and there won't will not clarify anything. So, if anyone would like to be optimistic, stay there, to be pessimistic, stay there - this whole argument by MPADAPA is not enough to change your state of mind Just my observation!

Originally Posted by mpadapa

Thanks for the comments. Its not my assumptions, it is the law.
Please checkout how the spillovers between EB and FB are arrived. Here is the link
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/u...1----000-.html

[hydboy77]

vdl rao is an irrational person. without any sound reasoning he started that stupid thread "eb2 India will be current", when I tried to point out something about the amount of eb3 to eb2 portings going on and how this will set the eb2 dates back significantly I was given red dots (what else can they do). The people in that thread were halucinating about eb2 being current. Reality should now set in, there in no way eb2 is even going to 2006 anytime soon. This is the sad reality.

Last year there were only about 3 to 4k spillover from eb1 to eb2, eb2 row pretty much consumed all the eb2 row numbers and there was no spillover from eb2 row to eb2 india and eb2 china.

If the same trend continues we might get 3k spillover to eb2 india\china which will advance PD by a month. Some people are hoping that because of the bad economy there might not be many eb1 applications and that will lead to spillover to eb2, that is wrong assumption, the people getting approval in eb1 in 2009 are people who applied in 2008 and earlier when the economy was doing good, lay offs started only in nov-dec of 2008. Even if eb1 applications drop because of bad economy the results would be reflected in 2010 and not in 2009.

USCIS is not going to waste any visa numbers anymore. That means the last rollover from FB to eb has already happened in 2008 and might not happen ever again.

[mpadapa]

realizeit, you just didn't get the unused visa calculation.
By the way your interpretation quoted below is exactly what numbersUSA used to claim that there is no visa available for recapture. And they used that argument to shoot down our recapture bill.

Knowing that PD's aren't going to move forward drastically, we need to start working towards some thing drastic like a bill/amendment. Or we can sit and mull over it and wait until the second week of Aug (when Sep bulletin is announced) to show our frustration.

Originally Posted by realizeit

If your argument is correct, there won't be any need for recapture laws that we all are working for. If the unused can be given to the next year, no visa will get wasted. USCIS/DOS can just give the unused in family category to Employment category in the following year and vice versa.

[realizeit]

Mr MPADAPA,

I know you have spent some time analyzing the whole stuff and came with your conclusions. At the end, if someone says that the crux of your conclusions are wrong, for an emotional person, it would be tough to take. A rational person would take it lightly and think before responding. In your immediate previous reply, you just cherry picked a quote from my previous reply and put that as my interpretation. Please do not put words into my mouth. My reply has been pasted below in its entirety.

You have campared the paragraph with NumbersUSA argument etc. Dear friend, my argument was exactly opposite to that paragraph. I think, you didn't get the meaning of the paragraph itself. My paragraph contained phrases like "If your argument is correct..", ". If the unused can be given to ..". etc, which makes the argument exactly opposite to what mentioned there. So, that means I believe exactly opposite to those arguments.

I acknowledge that you have every right to interpret the law in whichever way you want. My point is that, it really doesn't matter to all of the folks who applied in EB2 and waiting for GC. The thing that really matters is the way in which USCIS acts this year. They can act in whatever way they want. This year, if they say, there won't be any family visa wastage, we will get nothing. Contrary to that, if they see that by the end of the year there is a chance for 15K family vis wastage, they may allocate that to employment category.

To all EB2 folks out there: No need to really feel bad or happy about the analysis of Mr. MPADAPA.

My general advice to anyone who put forward an argument for propaganda and a campaign is: Don't massage the facts, don't twist the facts, don't over analyze, don't under analyze, Also don't say that your interpretation is the final verdict. Because, even if we can analyze all the immigration related laws in the whole Federal register, we may not be able to come to a final conclusion....!! Why? Because you don't have a clue what is in the field manual and internal memos of the USCIS and you don't know how they procedurely allocate spill over etc on each year. As long as USCIS and DOS can use the terms "In Anticipation..", "As per our expectations..", no one will be able to hold them accountable for the visa wastage.

MPADAPA..you may continue your argument/discussions, if you think this is a moot point. But I don't believe so.

If you can prove your initial basic argument with complete facts and details, I will openly declare, I am wrong! Your original argument was "Since the family category used up all Visa numbers in 2008, in 2009 EB2 cannot expect any spill over from Family category and hence we need to expect slow movement....".

Instead of proving the above, you may cherry pick my statements and continue to beat about the bush. I am giving up here my friend.

Good luck

Originally Posted by mpadapa

realizeit, you just didn't get the unused visa calculation.
By the way your interpretation quoted below is exactly what numbersUSA used to claim that there is no visa available for recapture. And they used that argument to shoot down our recapture bill.

Knowing that PD's aren't going to move forward drastically, we need to start working towards some thing drastic like a bill/amendment. Or we can sit and mull over it and wait until the second week of Aug (when Sep bulletin is announced) to show our frustration.

My complete earlier reply

Originally Posted by realizeit

Still I disagree my friend. I know, law is the law! What I am disagreeing is your interpretation and conclusion.

In reality, towards the end of the Fiscal year, if USCIS/State Dept finds that visas will go unused in one category, they can use the spill over rules. So, if there are some potential unused visas in Family category they can add it to Employment category and vice versa. This will all work in the same year. It will not work or get transferred to a following year. In your initial argument, you said, because all the family visas for 2008 are completely used, we won't get anything from that category as spill over during this year (2009).

If your argument is correct, there won't be any need for recapture laws that we all are working for. If the unused can be given to the next year, no visa will get wasted. USCIS/DOS can just give the unused in family category to Employment category in the following year and vice versa.

In reality that is not the case. Visa number in one year will not flow to the next. So, your original argument is completely wrong. If there is nothing left in family category for the year 2008, that has nothing to do with the expected spill over to Employment category from family category in 2009.

In my opinion, law is complex and snippets of the law from here and there won't will not clarify anything. So, if anyone would like to be optimistic, stay there, to be pessimistic, stay there - this whole argument by MPADAPA is not enough to change your state of mind Just my observation!