Employment-Based Visa Number Movement and Predictions - from current Murthy Bulletin

[nandakumar]

1. Employment-Based Visa Number Movement and Predictions

Many MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers closely track the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin each month. The most recent Visa Bulletin chart is always available on MurthyDotCom. Given the importance of the cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletin, attorneys at the Murthy Law Firm are often asked for predictions as to the movement of the cutoff dates. There is no better source for this information than Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS. Mr. Oppenheim was a guest speaker at a May 20, 2009 American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) meeting, which was attended by most of our attorneys. Mr. Oppenheim’s explanations and visa number / Visa Bulletin expectations for the remainder of FY2009 and for FY2010 are explained below. Readers who are unfamiliar with the Visa Bulletin and the role visa numbers play in the permanent residence (commonly referred to as the “green card”) process should review some of the articles on this important topic that can be found on our website; among them, Priority Dates - How Do They Work?

Historical Background

Mr. Oppenheim discussed the historical background that led to the current unavailability of visa numbers, known as retrogression, for certain employment-based (EB) immigrant visa categories. Retrogression is not something new or unfamiliar in immigration law. Most EB numbers were current from July 2001 through January 2005 due to legislative that provided a temporary solution. This legislation authorized unused visa numbers from previous years to be put back into the system. Those additional numbers, along with the annual allotments, were sufficient to meet the demand until January 2005. Since January 2005, the supply of EB visa numbers has fallen short of the demand.

Current Trends in Visa Usage

Mr. Oppenheim stated that immigrant visa applications at U.S. consulates abroad are down seven percent from FY2008. India will use all the visa numbers that are available to its nationals this fiscal year. This is due, in part, to huge increases in the usage of EB4 and EB5 categories. Applicants from India have used twice the number of visas estimated for FY2009. Mr. Oppenheim stated that, because of the excess demand, further retrogression may occur over the summer months.

Predictions for Movement and Usage of EB Visa Numbers

Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1)
Mr. Oppenheim expects that all EB1 visa numbers will be used before the end of FY2009. This may result in the establishment of a cutoff date for the EB1 categories for India and China, beginning in August or September 2009. Usage in the EB1 worldwide category (listed as "all chargeability areas except those listed") is also higher than expected. This may lead to imposition of a cutoff date toward the end of FY2009.

Mr. Oppenheim explained that a trickling effect of unused visa numbers between EB categories has helped keep EB1 and EB2 categories current in prior years. However, due to the processing of a high number of applications, this trickling effect has already occurred, but is not expected to occur again in FY2009. Mr. Oppenheim attributed this to the hard work of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), as well as that of the DOS, as they have succeeded in processing enough cases to likely use all available visa numbers from all categories for FY2009. He stated that the DOS and the USCIS are supposed to process enough cases to use the annual allotment of visa numbers and not leave any available visas unused and wasted in any fiscal year.

Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)
The EB2 category worldwide is also expected to be over-subscribed and will exhaust all allocated visa numbers before the end of FY2009. To date, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that 3,200 EB2 India visa numbers have been used in FY2009. The high usage in the EB1 category has prevented the usual trickle of visas to the EB2 category. Thus, China will experience the same EB2 retrogression as India in July 2009. The EB2 China cutoff date is expected to be set at January 1, 2000.

Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3)
All EB3 categories are currently unavailable; all available visa numbers have been allocated. No change is expected to occur until the beginning of FY2010.

Employment-Based, Fourth Preference / Certain Religious Workers
There has been an unexpectedly heavy usage of visas in the EB4 categories for certain religious worker in FY2009. A cutoff date thus may be set in August or September 2009. Mr. Oppenheim stated that, if the Certain Religious Workers category becomes unavailable, applicants in the ministers category are not affected.

Visa Numbers for Indian Nationals
Mr. Oppenheim has set the cutoff date for EB2 India at January 1, 2000. According to current estimates, out of the approximately 200,000 I-485 applications currently pending with USCIS, 120,000 of them are chargeable to India, with the cases divided evenly between EB2 and EB3. This means that EB2 and EB3 India applicants count for 60 percent of the I-485 cases currently pending with the USCIS.

FY2010 Predictions by Charles Oppenheim of DOS

Mr. Oppenheim stated that he expects the EB3 worldwide category to have a cutoff date of March 1, 2003, beginning with the October 2009 Visa Bulletin. When asked about the potential cutoff dates for EB3 India, China, and Mexico, Mr. Oppenheim said that it would depend on the demand for these categories over the rest of FY2009.

Mr. Oppenheim estimated that there are currently 25,000 EB2 and EB3 cases from Indian nationals that have been reviewed and are only waiting for visa numbers for final processing. He stated that, due to the dramatic increase in employment-based filings, visa cutoff dates for FY2010 will be much more limited to ensure that there will be a steady supply of visa numbers available throughout the year. This will lead to earlier cutoff dates and may help prevent visa categories from becoming unavailable.

Conclusion

We at the Murthy Law Firm appreciate Mr. Oppenheim's commitment to addressing matters related to visa numbers and the Visa Bulletin. The continued shortage of employment-based visa numbers is a source of great frustration for many and Mr. Oppenheim's predictions do not assuage that feeling. It is better to have an understanding of the reality of the situation, however, than to operate in ignorance or with unrealistic expectations. Once again, the shortage of immigrant visa numbers underscores the need for legislation in this area to increase the numbers, change the counting of the numbers (from one per person to one per family), or to revamp the system entirely.

[sledge_hammer]

Damn USCIS!!!!!

Originally Posted by nandakumar

Conclusion

We at the Murthy Law Firm appreciate Mr. Oppenheim's commitment to addressing matters related to visa numbers and the Visa Bulletin. The continued shortage of employment-based visa numbers is a source of great frustration for many and Mr. Oppenheim's predictions do not assuage that feeling. It is better to have an understanding of the reality of the situation, however, than to operate in ignorance or with unrealistic expectations. Once again, the shortage of immigrant visa numbers underscores the need for legislation in this area to increase the numbers, change the counting of the numbers (from one per person to one per family), or to revamp the system entirely.

[sparky_jones]

"When asked about the potential cutoff dates for EB3 India, China, and Mexico, Mr. Oppenheim said that it would depend on the demand for these categories over the rest of FY2009"

What demand? Aren't these categories already "Unavailable" for the rest of FY2009? What will generate the demand? His earlier statements seem to suggest they have a pretty good handle on the number of cases pending and the EB categories and chargeabilities of those cases. Should'nt they already have a pretty good handle on the demand? On one hand, Mr. Oppenheim is throwing out numbers like they've got it all figured out...and immediately after that he makes a statement which implies they haven't a clue!

[angelfire76]

When some of us raised the issue of project managers from Indian IT companies applying under EB1 and using up those visas which would trickle over to EB2 and EB3, we were scoffed at. Some even questioned as to why these people cannot apply under "Multi-national executive" category, as they are "Multi-national" managers.
These guys misrepresent the number of people reporting to them (same managers in the same portfolio uses the same number of people to show in the application as reporting to them. This is true "reuse"), also "reuse" the portfolio value (how can 3-4 managers from the same client account be responsible for x million dollar business) and crooked company attorneys make up a stellar resume and case to file for them. The attorney pay comes from the employee's pocket.
Otherwise how would you explain the sudden rise in EB1 filings and a quota which never used to be over in previous years suddenly has cut-off dates.
If we keep quiet, these same clowns will use up all the visas and smirk at us for filing in the "lower" categories. What a backdoor to a green card!

[mbawa2574]

Originally Posted by angelfire76

When some of us raised the issue of project managers from Indian IT companies applying under EB1 and using up those visas which would trickle over to EB2 and EB3, we were scoffed at. Some even questioned as to why these people cannot apply under "Multi-national executive" category, as they are "Multi-national" managers.
These guys misrepresent the number of people reporting to them (same managers in the same portfolio uses the same number of people to show in the application as reporting to them. This is true "reuse"), also "reuse" the portfolio value (how can 3-4 managers from the same client account be responsible for x million dollar business) and crooked company attorneys make up a stellar resume and case to file for them. The attorney pay comes from the employee's pocket.
Otherwise how would you explain the sudden rise in EB1 filings and a quota which never used to be over in previous years suddenly has cut-off dates.
If we keep quiet, these same clowns will use up all the visas and smirk at us for filing in the "lower" categories. What a backdoor to a green card!

This fraud has to stop. There is nothing called as MNC manager. These are basically sweat shop slave supervisors. None of these clowns make a 6 figure salary and can match the skills of people in EB2 & EB3 category.

[harikris]

This is precisely not what i wanted to hear.
It puts a damper on hope.
Now we have to hope against hope to see any movement forward.
There are only 3 ways i can see for improvement
1. Legislation
2. New legislation
3. And fast legislation

[deepakjain]

EB2 and EB3 will be in queue for sometime, fact being the latest fraud by Indian IT firms.

Please read then post comments.

I personally know 7 people who came to US in 2008 via Indian IT firm - designations [Sr Project managers or Program manager]....

Applied for GC under EB1 and every one of them have a GC now....not to mention few MNC's based out in India have done the same...one of my friends who works for an US based consulting firm in Hyd is here in US on H1B [12 months] he has a GC.....EB1

[gc_on_demand]

Titanic has already hit the ice berg.. Lets see how far we can survive in given economy.

Didn't Nixtor ( From IV Core ) posted same or simmilar comment from Visa officer ( Again AC21 ) on Domor's Forum.

Only hope if any little ... is VISA RECAPTURE.

[saileshdude]

Originally Posted by deepakjain

EB2 and EB3 will be in queue for sometime, fact being the latest fraud by Indian IT firms.

Please read then post comments.

I personally know 7 people who came to US in 2008 via Indian IT firm - designations [Sr Project managers or Program manager]....

Applied for GC under EB1 and every one of them have a GC now....not to mention few MNC's based out in India have done the same...one of my friends who works for an US based consulting firm in Hyd is here in US on H1B [12 months] he has a GC.....EB1

Before it was Labor Substitution cases that caused suffering everyone who is waiting in line for years. Now it is this fraud EB1 cases. I am planning to write to Ombudsman to bring this to the attention of USCIS to process EB1 cases from India with extreme scrutiny.
Indian IT firms make designation as multinational executives where in actuality these people are just bunch of clowns. This needs to be controlled now before we have another year of misuse of EB1 cases. Is IV going to do something to make sure EB1 cases really get scrutinized and are given to only who really deserve it. I think thats one of the things IV should be pushing for.


I am pretty sure Cognizant is one of the companies who is doing this.

[carpediem]

Can someone tell me if this is right?

- Total number of EB-2 visas = 40,000
- 7% of 40,000 are allocated for India = 2,800
- Number of EB-2 I I-485 apps pending = 30,000

So if there is no spillover from other categories it will take north of 10 years for all the people who applied for I-485 in the July 2007 fiasco to get Green Cards. The only caveat to this would be attrition or legislation.

[Roger Binny]

Problem is with out any attorney's support or making a case for them they cannot file it, stupid creativity by legal folks and these sweat shop clowns.

Same thing happened with labor substitution, these clowns sold their labor certifications to just came in tards for a premium, and they got their GC's.

Fr****ekkkkkin loop holes.

[hiralal]

Originally Posted by carpediem

Can someone tell me if this is right?

- Total number of EB-2 visas = 40,000
- 7% of 40,000 are allocated for India = 2,800
- Number of EB-2 I I-485 apps pending = 30,000

So if there is no spillover from other categories it will take north of 10 years for all the people who applied for I-485 in the July 2007 fiasco to get Green Cards. The only caveat to this would be attrition or legislation.

That is correct !!! worse for EB3.
I wonder why Charles or Murthy are not talking to congress to remove the country limits. I guess time has come to put "for sale" sign in my front lawn !!

[qasleuth]

Originally Posted by nandakumar

[b]
Mr. Oppenheim estimated that there are currently 25,000 EB2 and EB3 cases from Indian nationals that have been reviewed and are only waiting for visa numbers for final processing.

Help me understand here: when pre-adjudicating applications, either you pre-approve, if not satisfied issue RFE or deny. Why would only 25,000 applications have been pre-adjudicated ? NSC processing timeframe being Aug 27, 2007 and TSC Aug 8, 2007, shouldn't the 25,000 number be much higher when compared to the total of 120,000 applications chargeable to India?

[gcny2006]

Originally Posted by carpediem

Can someone tell me if this is right?

- Total number of EB-2 visas = 40,000
- 7% of 40,000 are allocated for India = 2,800
- Number of EB-2 I I-485 apps pending = 30,000

So if there is no spillover from other categories it will take north of 10 years for all the people who applied for I-485 in the July 2007 fiasco to get Green Cards. The only caveat to this would be attrition or legislation.

WRONG

Mr. Oppenheim has set the cutoff date for EB2 India at January 1, 2000. According to current estimates, out of the approximately 200,000 I-485 applications currently pending with USCIS, 120,000 of them are chargeable to India, with the cases divided evenly between EB2 and EB3. This means that EB2 and EB3 India applicants count for 60 percent of the I-485 cases currently pending with the USCIS.

- Number of EB-2 I I-485 apps pending = 60,000

so with no trickle it will be 20+ years

[carpediem]

That's really tough! I don't think I can keep the same job profile for 10 years. Neither can I form a start-up and have it sponsor my GC application.

The only hope might be to become a multinational executive really fast, or win the lottery and invest a million dollars in the US.

Guys I think it's time to go home, Swades style!