Nov 2012 Visa Bulletin out

[anshu]

Originally Posted by fatboysam

why November VB is not out yet, normally it comes around this time frame, right ?

May be Obama & Romany together discuss with USCIS, about all cat's r current, why not?

[looivy]

Desi Bandhus - Till when would you do current date prdiction Ganit (Math). With status quo you can expect to do the Ganit till year 2082

The remedy to your situation is HR 3012...Focus on the ~40K that ROW is mooching off you and not on he 7% quota.

[UKannan]

Originally Posted by fatboysam

why November VB is not out yet, normally it comes around this time frame, right ?

There may be lot of surprises!!! Stay Tuned.....

[shouldIwait]

Originally Posted by The WalL

As we were observing last year, there was no breakout of demand prior to 01-JAN-2007. It was prior to 01-JAN-2008. Those numbers were:
05-OCT-2011 DD: 1150 <--25 prior to 01-JAN-2007
09-NOV-2011 DD: 50 <-- Last showing 01-JAN-2007 but was listed as ZERO (0).
DD Not published in DECEMBER
06-JAN-2012 DD: 45
08-FEB-2012 DD: 30
08-MAR-2012 DD: 25
DD Not published in APRIL
08-MAY-2012 DD: 2600
08-JUN-2012 DD: 3400
DD Not published in JULY
08-AUG-2012 DD: 4900
10-SEP-2012 DD: 5500 <-- 01-JAN-2007 makes an appearance with 1350 demand

Note: Date shown is for the demand data publication according to DOS site. These would apply to the bulletin of the next month.

With all caveats of what DD really is, you can see that a date that had been reduced to ZERO a year ago and was ZERO 11 months ago is now in the thousands. That isnt because applicants in EB2 woke up from slumber and filed 485. Neither is it because USCIS found a truck filled with lost applications. That is purely porting.
DOS can issue ~230 visas a month. Typically USCIS can process about ~500/month in newly qualified demand. If the demand number goes down by 250, then its fair to infer that, given last bulletin, the porting is ~300 last month which is way more than the average of ~100/month over the last year that we've seen.

As for SOFAD, that will be accounted for in the DEC bulletin. But there isnt much to bank on atleast in Q1 since EB2-ROW will get it first. Once it goes C, then India and China will get some of that. Given that EB2-ROW DD went from 4850 to 1650 in a month, it means there will be plenty of spillover from EB1 this year.

No matter how all this plays out, the best hope is legislative action for resolving this crisis. Many independent voices and studies are showing some interesting benefits to high-skilled immigration. I read somewhere that every highly skilled immigrant in the US creates 2.6 jobs for the US. In other words, one immigrant ADDS 1.6 employment opportunities to the US work force. Thats just mind boggling!

You've got all your fundas about prediction math wrong unfortunately !

[for_gc]

Since, the total demand for "All Other Countries" is 11450, does this mean that this year there maybe a spillover to India within the EB3 category?

[StillonH1B]

According to the demand data for November it shows DD for all other countries is 1650 and for China 7200 till Jan2012 and the quota for EB2 is 40,040 . So China and ROW adds up to 8850, shouldnt the rest be spill over to EB2 India? Probably by using these calculations we would be close to getting current, but we are not , so I think my calculations are wrong.

So how does the spill over work?

Any comments experts?

Thanks

[ajaybhardwaj228]

Originally Posted by StillonH1B

According to the demand data for November it shows DD for all other countries is 1650 and for China 7200 till Jan2012 and the quota for EB2 is 40,040 . So China and ROW adds up to 8850, shouldnt the rest be spill over to EB2 India? Probably by using these calculations we would be close to getting current, but we are not , so I think my calculations are wrong.

So how does the spill over work?

Any comments experts?

Thanks

you dont get EB2 40040 on Oct 1st its assigned to consume quarterly basis if i am correct.so it ll be user throughout the year @ 250 visa number per country per month

[Fairnessforall]

Originally Posted by The WalL

As we were observing last year, there was no breakout of demand prior to 01-JAN-2007. It was prior to 01-JAN-2008. Those numbers were:
05-OCT-2011 DD: 1150 <--25 prior to 01-JAN-2007
09-NOV-2011 DD: 50 <-- Last showing 01-JAN-2007 but was listed as ZERO (0).
DD Not published in DECEMBER
06-JAN-2012 DD: 45
08-FEB-2012 DD: 30
08-MAR-2012 DD: 25
DD Not published in APRIL
08-MAY-2012 DD: 2600
08-JUN-2012 DD: 3400
DD Not published in JULY
08-AUG-2012 DD: 4900
10-SEP-2012 DD: 5500 <-- 01-JAN-2007 makes an appearance with 1350 demand

Note: Date shown is for the demand data publication according to DOS site. These would apply to the bulletin of the next month.

With all caveats of what DD really is, you can see that a date that had been reduced to ZERO a year ago and was ZERO 11 months ago is now in the thousands. That isnt because applicants in EB2 woke up from slumber and filed 485. Neither is it because USCIS found a truck filled with lost applications. That is purely porting.
DOS can issue ~230 visas a month. Typically USCIS can process about ~500/month in newly qualified demand. If the demand number goes down by 250, then its fair to infer that, given last bulletin, the porting is ~300 last month which is way more than the average of ~100/month over the last year that we've seen.

As for SOFAD, that will be accounted for in the DEC bulletin. But there isnt much to bank on atleast in Q1 since EB2-ROW will get it first. Once it goes C, then India and China will get some of that. Given that EB2-ROW DD went from 4850 to 1650 in a month, it means there will be plenty of spillover from EB1 this year.

No matter how all this plays out, the best hope is legislative action for resolving this crisis. Many independent voices and studies are showing some interesting benefits to high-skilled immigration. I read somewhere that every highly skilled immigrant in the US creates 2.6 jobs for the US. In other words, one immigrant ADDS 1.6 employment opportunities to the US work force. Thats just mind boggling!

Thank you for the clarification.

[Fairnessforall]

Originally Posted by shouldIwait

You've got all your fundas about prediction math wrong unfortunately !

Wonder what is the fault in that argument?

[soumeeram]

Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed
CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd C 01SEP07 01SEP04 C C
3rd 22NOV06 15APR06 22OCT02 22NOV06 08AUG06


India EB-2 - No change
ROW EB-2 - Current
India EB-3 - 22 OCT 02

[krishmunn]

EB2-ROW Current (as I guessed)
EB2-I still in 2004

Since EB2 ROW is C, EB2-I might move significantly by next quarter

[cool_desi_gc]

Consistent movement for EB3-I. Not bad.

[SGP]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/visa...vember2012.pdf

[Fairnessforall]

Our quest for HR3012 continues!!!

[forever_waiting]

THere are no surprises in the VB. EB2-I will stay stuck till summer-2013 when spillover will kick in. EB3-I will continue to move at snail pace a week or less every bulletin -Porting or HR3012 are the only two hopes.