All Visa Bulletin Predictions and discussions here

[smartboy75]

Originally Posted by sumagiri

I know calculations and estimations on EB cut off's is far from easy. The reason. Simple. We are trying to solve a problem with out knowing values of many parameters.

Still, Few mathematical brains attempt to calculate as much as possible with our assumptions as practical as possible.

I also joined the camp and made few calculations based on
1) LPR_FY06, LPR_FY07 data,
2) latest March'08 pending case statistics from USCIS
3) the recent testimonies of USCIS, DOS.
4) based on data and opinions on IV forums and imminfo forum.
5) Ombudsman annual reports (FY06 and FY07)

No subjectivity but It appears to me that this year will be very good for EB2, if your I-140 is cleared. This year may turn out to be less than expected for EB3 especially retrogressed countries. This may change next year. So I am NOT sure if trying to port from EB3 to EB2 will help!

Some of my calculations below. I am Open for constructive debate. If you don't believe in calculations or if this calculation turns to be far from reality in your opinion, that is fine. This is no easy problem to solve.

Total # of EB Visas this year : 190,767 estimated by Ron Gotcher. Spill over from Last years Family quota
Total # of EB1 visas on average : 26K (from past years LPR statistics published by USCIS)
Total # of EB4 & EB5 visas on average : 10k (from past years LPR statistics published by USCIS)

Assuming that visa usage is only 95% and not 100% (as understood by reading testimony)
Total Visa usage = .95 * 190767 = 181,228
Total EB AOS : About 85% = 154,044
Assuming 95% of EB1,4,5 are AOS just to be on worst case, the numbers for them would be = .95*36000 = 34200
So numbers left for EB3 and EB2 AOS would be 154044 Minus 34200 = 119,844
28.6 will go to EB2 = 28.6 * 154044 = 44056
28.6 will go to EB3 = 28.6 * 154044 = 44056
The rest will fall in to EB2 . So total EB2 = 119,844-(44056) = 75787

USCIS said, they used up about 65% of the 85% already. So they used up 65% * 154044 = 100,128 already.
The left out visas for 5 months would be 154,044 Minus 100,128 = 53,915

75,787 I-485s are roughly 34,448 I-140s (An avg of 1.2 dependents for each primary).
44,056 I-485s are roughly 20,025 I-I40s (An avg of 1.2 dependents for each primary).

USCIS will not issue over 27% of visas in any of the first 3 quarters. So
EB3 would have used up 54% of its quota. So 23,790
EB3 left are 44056-23790= 20,265

For EB2, using same calculation, left out visas would be 20,265
Also, the additional visas flowing from EB4,5->EB1->EB2 would be 31732. So EB2 total of 51997 will be issued in 5 months. Most of those will be in last quarter.

As the year end approaches, My guess is that for every EB3, there may be a chance of atleast 2.5 EB2s getting approved. So My take is that EB3 moves little bit, But it is EB2 which may jump before year end. I hope it will atleast hit 2005.

In last quarter there is not enough demand from other countries in EB2. So EB2 retrogressed countries will benefit. How many will benefit. ? Not sure. but lot of them.

From testimony by USCIS, it appears like the left over EB2 numbers will be available to retrogressed countries. Below is extract from testimony.
"These numbers are being made available because current indications are that demand from “all other countries” will not be sufficient to utilize all available Employment Second preference numbers. Such numbers will be made available, as visa numbers are always provided, in priority date order (the date petition to accord immigrant status was filed with USCIS). India does have a larger number of older petitions pending and therefore is likely to receive a larger number of
these visa numbers than China. The Department’s policy of making the extra numbers available in priority date order is mandated by Section 203(e) of the INA. This allocation of numbers based on priority date means that
China and India Second preference applicants will be subject to exactly the same cut-off date."

Don't know anything about whether your prediction is correct or not...but hats off to your attempt......Appreciate your estimation technique

[karthiknv143]

so when is the next vb going to be out?

[karthiknv143]

Hi,

One of my friend got the email from CRIS today, 'welcoming permanent resident'. Interesting thing is, his PD is Jan 2005, applied AOS July 2'07.
EB2-India.....
So, you can get ur GC out-of-order. So, its a lottery I guees

[VSS2007]

Hi

Originally Posted by karthiknv143

One of my friend got the email from CRIS today, 'welcoming permanent resident'. Interesting thing is, his PD is Jan 2005, applied AOS July 2'07.
EB2-India.....
So, you can get ur GC out-of-order. So, its a lottery I guees

[texanguy]

did he use cross chargeability due to spouse's country of birth? just curious...anyway, happy for him!

Originally Posted by karthiknv143

Hi,

One of my friend got the email from CRIS today, 'welcoming permanent resident'. Interesting thing is, his PD is Jan 2005, applied AOS July 2'07.
EB2-India.....
So, you can get ur GC out-of-order. So, its a lottery I guees

[vdlrao]

This seems right and EB2 India will move very fast till 01 JAN 06 as because based on June 2007 bulletin, just before the july fiasco,( http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_3236.html ) the PD for China is 01 JAN 06. That means in EB2 Category except India and China every other country is current. So till India reaches 01 JAN 06 PD for india in EB2 will move pretty fast.

P.S: I presume OBAMA would precide as a President and pass the imigration reform bill in his first year tenure as he promised. And according to him legals (Like us) have to get a path to citizenship earlier than illigels. So I am sure the IV plays a crucial role in immigration reform bill as far as EB category is concerned

Originally Posted by sumagiri

I know calculations and estimations on EB cut off's is far from easy. The reason. Simple. We are trying to solve a problem with out knowing values of many parameters.

Still, Few mathematical brains attempt to calculate as much as possible with our assumptions as practical as possible.

I also joined the camp and made few calculations based on
1) LPR_FY06, LPR_FY07 data,
2) latest March'08 pending case statistics from USCIS
3) the recent testimonies of USCIS, DOS.
4) based on data and opinions on IV forums and imminfo forum.
5) Ombudsman annual reports (FY06 and FY07)

No subjectivity but It appears to me that this year will be very good for EB2, if your I-140 is cleared. This year may turn out to be less than expected for EB3 especially retrogressed countries. This may change next year. So I am NOT sure if trying to port from EB3 to EB2 will help!

Some of my calculations below. I am Open for constructive debate. If you don't believe in calculations or if this calculation turns to be far from reality in your opinion, that is fine. This is no easy problem to solve.

Total # of EB Visas this year : 190,767 estimated by Ron Gotcher. Spill over from Last years Family quota
Total # of EB1 visas on average : 26K (from past years LPR statistics published by USCIS)
Total # of EB4 & EB5 visas on average : 10k (from past years LPR statistics published by USCIS)

Assuming that visa usage is only 95% and not 100% (as understood by reading testimony)
Total Visa usage = .95 * 190767 = 181,228
Total EB AOS : About 85% = 154,044
Assuming 95% of EB1,4,5 are AOS just to be on worst case, the numbers for them would be = .95*36000 = 34200
So numbers left for EB3 and EB2 AOS would be 154044 Minus 34200 = 119,844
28.6 will go to EB2 = 28.6 * 154044 = 44056
28.6 will go to EB3 = 28.6 * 154044 = 44056
The rest will fall in to EB2 . So total EB2 = 119,844-(44056) = 75787

USCIS said, they used up about 65% of the 85% already. So they used up 65% * 154044 = 100,128 already.
The left out visas for 5 months would be 154,044 Minus 100,128 = 53,915

75,787 I-485s are roughly 34,448 I-140s (An avg of 1.2 dependents for each primary).
44,056 I-485s are roughly 20,025 I-I40s (An avg of 1.2 dependents for each primary).

USCIS will not issue over 27% of visas in any of the first 3 quarters. So
EB3 would have used up 54% of its quota. So 23,790
EB3 left are 44056-23790= 20,265

For EB2, using same calculation, left out visas would be 20,265
Also, the additional visas flowing from EB4,5->EB1->EB2 would be 31732. So EB2 total of 51997 will be issued in 5 months. Most of those will be in last quarter.

As the year end approaches, My guess is that for every EB3, there may be a chance of atleast 2.5 EB2s getting approved. So My take is that EB3 moves little bit, But it is EB2 which may jump before year end. I hope it will atleast hit 2005.

In last quarter there is not enough demand from other countries in EB2. So EB2 retrogressed countries will benefit. How many will benefit. ? Not sure. but lot of them.

From testimony by USCIS, it appears like the left over EB2 numbers will be available to retrogressed countries. Below is extract from testimony.
"These numbers are being made available because current indications are that demand from “all other countries” will not be sufficient to utilize all available Employment Second preference numbers. Such numbers will be made available, as visa numbers are always provided, in priority date order (the date petition to accord immigrant status was filed with USCIS). India does have a larger number of older petitions pending and therefore is likely to receive a larger number of
these visa numbers than China. The Department’s policy of making the extra numbers available in priority date order is mandated by Section 203(e) of the INA. This allocation of numbers based on priority date means that
China and India Second preference applicants will be subject to exactly the same cut-off date."

[texanguy]

There is also a chance that China EB2 will move further...

Originally Posted by vdlrao

This seems right and EB2 India will move very fast till 01 JAN 06 as because based on June 2007 bulletin( http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_3236.html ) the PD for China is 01 JAN 06. That means in EB2 Category except India and China every other country is current. So till India reaches 01 JAN 06 PD for india in EB2 will move pretty fast.

P.S: I presume OBAMA would precide as a President and pass the imigration reform bill in his first year tenure. And according to him legals (Like us) have to get a path to citizenship earlier than illigels. So I am sure the IV plays a crucial role in immigration reform bill as far as EB category is concerned.

[vdlrao]

Originally Posted by texanguy

There is also a chance that China EB2 will move further...

Yes texanguy. You are right. China EB2 will move based on 7% quota limit (based on existing rules). That will cause china cut off date wil move further than 01JAN06. So, that in turn moves India Cut off date faster till that Chia cut off date.

[sherlock01]

Originally Posted by sumagiri

I know calculations and estimations on EB cut off's is far from easy. The reason. Simple. We are trying to solve a problem with out knowing values of many parameters.

Still, Few mathematical brains attempt to calculate as much as possible with our assumptions as practical as possible.

Very good analysis. Hope USCIS is that consistent when applying there rules

[conchshell]

Originally Posted by vdlrao

This seems right and EB2 India will move very fast till 01 JAN 06 as because based on June 2007 bulletin, just before the july fiasco,( http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_3236.html ) the PD for China is 01 JAN 06. That means in EB2 Category except India and China every other country is current. So till India reaches 01 JAN 06 PD for india in EB2 will move pretty fast.

P.S: I presume OBAMA would precide as a President and pass the imigration reform bill in his first year tenure as he promised. And according to him legals (Like us) have to get a path to citizenship earlier than illigels. So I am sure the IV plays a crucial role in immigration reform bill as far as EB category is concerned

vdlrao ... even though your prediction is based on facts ... it looks surreal. But I wish it comes true.

[asdfgh]

...and probably be stuck there forever...

Check Mumbai consulate

[jnc]

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 15 March 2002 15 March 2002
FX 1 May 2002 1 May 2002
F2A 15 July 2003 15 July 2003
F2B 1 August 1999 1 August 1999
F3 8 June 2000 8 June 2000
F4 1 February 1997 22 August 1997
E1 Current Current
E2 1 April 2004 Current
E3 1 November 2001 1 March 2006
EX Unavailable Unavailable
EW 1 January 2003 1 January 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

[JunRN]

Originally Posted by JunRN

My prediction:

EB3/EB2 India will have very little movement or no movement at all.
EB3 ROW will move to June 2006.

Looking at Mumbai Consulate VB, it seems my prediction for EB3 RoW is off mark as it didn't move at all.

[karthiknv143]

Originally Posted by texanguy

did he use cross chargeability due to spouse's country of birth? just curious...anyway, happy for him!

No cross-changeability..

[prshah102]

Woooooohooooooooooo!!!
Got the Prediction right this time for EB2 india.
I had told that it will be April'04.


This was my previous update:
================================================== ======
prshah102
Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 16

My prediction : India EB2 : April'04
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lets play the game.
I am predicting- April' 04 for India EB2.

P.S: My PD is Oct'05