EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[Michael chertoff]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

w.r.t EB2I, dec, jan, feb, march VBs are copy paste of nov 2010 VB bulletin

you are a smart man.

[indigo10]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

for EB2I, it would be copy paste of NOV 2010 VB bulletin

Chances of any EB2I movement before june VB is zero!!!

You meant July VB right ?

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by pappu

Please do not post unrelated posts on this thread and help keep this thread clean. Focus on the purpose of this thread. If you want to discuss something else, open a new thread and discuss there. All unrelated posts will be deleted. If someone still does not listen, we will have to ban that user.

Teddy you can post such warning on your first post so that this thread stays clean.

Pappu thanks for the moderation, I have updated the first post.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

w.r.t EB2I, dec, jan, feb, march VBs are copy paste of nov 2010 VB bulletin

Friends for EB2-I movement may only start in the July bulletin because PD Porting and PWMB far exceed the 250 PM monthly allocation. Friends chill we are not far from that. I can feel the pain of those who had a close miss its just sheer unlucky.

[gcwait2007]

In order to calculate the EB2 ROW spillover to EB2 IC, I would like to know the I-140 approvals during Q1 and Jan and Feb 2011.

Does any one have this data? Can you please share the same with the forum? Thanks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by gcwait2007

In order to calculate the EB2 ROW spillover to EB2 IC, I would like to know the I-140 approvals during Q1 and Jan and Feb 2011.

Does any one have this data? Can you please share the same with the forum? Thanks.

The only good source for this is the USCIS dashboard - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends.
Its currently refreshed till Dec 2010 only.

[gcwait2007]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The only good source for this is the USCIS dashboard - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends.
Its currently refreshed till Dec 2010 only.

Thanks. I am unable to get country wise I-140 approvals. The over all present trend looks as follows:

Month 2010 2011
Oct 6149 5497
Nov 5658 5386
Dec 5604 5833
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

The above data shows that we can expect spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2IC similar to last year, based on the 1st Q trend. Caution is that there are many pending I-140 applications. I am not sure how many of them belongs to EB2 ROW.

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by Michael chertoff

you are a smart man.

yeah that's what the stoopid one's say about me

[ajayraj]

Hello All,
I got my EAD last year and it is valid until Sept 2012. I have not yet used it and am still on H1B on the 7th year extension.my priority date is Jan 2007. 140 and 485 applied in Jul 2007 EB2 category. 140 got approved in Nov 2008. Got married in May 2009, which means i still have not yet been in a position to apply for my wife's 485/EAD/AP.
We are having a lot of issues with the jobs on H1B and I am thinking of using my EAD to get perm job. If that is to happen and my wife is out of status, she would have to leave the country. Would it be possible to apply her 485/ EAD when she is out of the country? what are the other issues that i may have when my dates might get current sometime next year?
Please any advice on this situation is appreciated.

Thanks

[redsox2009]

My estimation is there will be atleast 25K+ visa's roll over. This is based on previous years roll overs and this year perm data.

For First Quarter of the year 2011.........

So far 18355 perm's were certified worldwide, 9299 for India and 1004 for china.

Lets us assume for oct, nov and dec there are 300 Indian perms for porting, remaining 8399 perms and 250 perms for E1B category, remaining 7649

Now we have to consider 1650(900+750) perm's issued.
Similarly for china lets assume there are 250 perm's issued for EB1 and porting.

For rest of world 8052 perm's were issued. Out of 8052 only 5252 visa's have chance of qualifying in EB1 or EB2, there is a chance of some of these might be EB3.

So based on above numbers total number of visa's granted were (1650+250+5252)*3=21456

So by July there will be 25K visa's available, also consider the fact that perm applications has slowed down.

Also last year for 2010, 32657 perm's were certified and most of these perms' are from 2009 & 2008, even though they are applied in 2008, 2009, perms are certified in 2010 and took the chunk of the visa numbers. 13094 visa were certified to rest of world, 17785 certified to India and 1778 to China.

Hope I made some sense.....................

Source for this data is from Labor dept site,
Foreign Labor Certification Disclosure File List

[snathan]

Originally Posted by redsox2009

My estimation is there will be atleast 25K+ visa's roll over. This is based on previous years roll overs and this year perm data.

For First Quarter of the year 2011.........

So far 18355 perm's were certified worldwide, 9299 for India and 1004 for china.

Lets us assume for oct, nov and dec there are 300 Indian perms for porting, remaining 8399 perms and 250 perms for E1B category, remaining 7649

Now we have to consider 1650(900+750) perm's issued.
Similarly for china lets assume there are 250 perm's issued for EB1 and porting.

For rest of world 8052 perm's were issued. Out of 8052 only 5252 visa's have chance of qualifying in EB1 or EB2, there is a chance of some of these might be EB3.

So based on above numbers total number of visa's granted were (1650+250+5252)*3=21456

So by July there will be 25K visa's available, also consider the fact that perm applications has slowed down.

Also last year for 2010, 32657 perm's were certified and most of these perms' are from 2009 & 2008, even though they are applied in 2008, 2009, perms are certified in 2010 and took the chunk of the visa numbers. 13094 visa were certified to rest of world, 17785 certified to India and 1778 to China.

Hope I made some sense.....................

Source for this data is from Labor dept site,
Foreign Labor Certification Disclosure File List

We dont need to bother about the number of PERM certified for China & India because PD is not current. We need to consider only the EB2 ROW PERM as others can not file for I-485 this year until the date moves.

[snathan]

.

[ajayraj]

Hello Snathan,
I was able to apply for my EAD as my 140 was already approved and 485 filed in. I applied it online and got the FP request that was done in VA.

Thanks

[ajayraj]

Hello Snathan,
I was able to apply for my EAD as my 140 was already approved and 485 filed in. I applied it online and got the FP request that was done in VA.

Thanks

[jetflyer]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

yeah that's what the stoopid one's say about me

what about smartones, they still think that you are an IDIOT?. BTW please check the spelling of Stupid. you smart one.