EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[gchandu]

Hi Teddy

With the given demand data as on Sep 11 published, do you still stick to the May 15 - Jun 15 2007 date range for EB2 India? Just checking if there is any change of your view, btw my PD is 6/13/2007.

Thanks
Chandu

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf


The I+C demand is just in the excess of 8K. If we assume that a cap number was attached to every case that does not figure here then let’s do a rough calculation of SOFAD consumed. When this year started we saw 34K as the total on the demand data, so 34-8 = 26K is the absolute reduction in the demand data. If we assume 4-6K of porting then definitely 30K or more SOFAD has been consumed. So another 2-3K may probably be left for Sep. Good luck for the VB.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by coolpal

so if EB2I prior to Jan-1-2007 is only 10, and I am still waiting with Dec-14-2006 PD, am I among the 10 ? That feels special

I doubt if this is correct. There could be more than 10 people.

Can we do a small test on this forum to see if we have more than 10 people in IV membership with EB2 India PD before 2007 January.

If there are more than 10, we can collect their PD info and contact DOS, tell them their published data is incorrect.

If anyone wants to take lead and get people to post their details on 1 thread it will help. If someone has ported, it must be clearly mentioned so that we can remove them from the list/keep them separate to avoid DOS justifying their data on these grounds. The profiles must be complete for all these so that we can look at their details to analyze. You can also post on other websites to collect such people on one thread for IV to look into the pending cases.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by vinodindia

Probably it is not a best analysis, but assuming that 3k is still remaining that will reduce the demand data for EB2-I to 1800 for the start of next fiscal year. Correct? With 233 visas per month that will just leave the first 8 months to move at a snail pace to cover up the numbers until Jan 2008. Unless there is a spill over which probably is in July 2012, can we safely assume that the date won't move beyond Jan '2008 until July '2012?

Based on our discussions, this could change.

[bits219]

Pappu,

Can you tell us if the change is for good? i.e. the dates could move to Jan 2008 before July 2012?

Originally Posted by pappu

Based on our discussions, this could change.

[NNReddy]

There is definitely going to be spill over to EB3 in next couple of years atlast around 4 to 5K. That will help EB3 to move to Jan 2004 by Jan 2014.

17500 VISAS UNTIL JAN 2004


5K SPILL OVER
9K VISA USAGE
3K EB3 TO EB2 UPGRADE
0.5K withdrawals(already approved thru EB2)

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the Range for EB2 India is 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. The agencies might choose the build the next pipeline but that is entirely hypothetical it looks less likely. For EB3-I the range is 01-JUn-2002 (Current date) to 15-JUN-2002. So no change because of demand data its on expected lines.
Now with regards the speculation about EB3. There is couple of misunderstandings. The spillover would go to the 7% limited countries ROW in case of a fall down it does not go to the oldest PD unless all 7% limited countries are current. This is precisely why EB2 I/C get the spillover, if EB2 ROW were not current they would have got all the EB1 and EB5 spillover. Besides that the chance of anything happening this year are remote, USCIS - DOS might build a pipeline sometime though, when it is entirely speculative.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends the Range for EB2 India is 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. The agencies might choose the build the next pipeline but that is entirely hypothetical it looks less likely. For EB3-I the range is 01-JUn-2002 (Current date) to 15-JUN-2002. So no change because of demand data its on expected lines.
Now with regards the speculation about EB3. There is couple of misunderstandings. The spillover would go to the 7% limited countries ROW in case of a fall down it does not go to the oldest PD unless all 7% limited countries are current. This is precisely why EB2 I/C get the spillover, if EB2 ROW were not current they would have got all the EB1 and EB5 spillover. Besides that the chance of anything happening this year are remote, USCIS - DOS might build a pipeline sometime though, when it is entirely speculative.

There are both plus and minus points in advancing of dates. We all know the plus points. But if we think deeper and more from USCIS point of view they do not have much to gain by advancing dates significantly. Dates could be moved at an incremental pace and pulled back a little bit seeing the demand and utilization (and they are fully aware of not wasting visa numbers). This has worked for DOS for many years and there is no reason why they should change their policy now is the question. That said, IV has made a strong case for advancing of dates because overall it is in the interest of our community. More people will get EAD, AP benefits earlier and that is a big benefit for someone not being able to travel or change their job.

[vbkris77]

DoS will hide behind documentarily qualified knownn demand. No one knows if their case filtered through that mesh or not..

Originally Posted by pappu

I doubt if this is correct. There could be more than 10 people.

Can we do a small test on this forum to see if we have more than 10 people in IV membership with EB2 India PD before 2007 January.

If there are more than 10, we can collect their PD info and contact DOS, tell them their published data is incorrect.

If anyone wants to take lead and get people to post their details on 1 thread it will help. If someone has ported, it must be clearly mentioned so that we can remove them from the list/keep them separate to avoid DOS justifying their data on these grounds. The profiles must be complete for all these so that we can look at their details to analyze. You can also post on other websites to collect such people on one thread for IV to look into the pending cases.

[LONGGCQUE]

Support IV's cause fully. We need EAD/AP benefits.

Originally Posted by pappu

There are both plus and minus points in advancing of dates. We all know the plus points. But if we think deeper and more from USCIS point of view they do not have much to gain by advancing dates significantly. Dates could be moved at an incremental pace and pulled back a little bit seeing the demand and utilization (and they are fully aware of not wasting visa numbers). This has worked for DOS for many years and there is no reason why they should change their policy now is the question. That said, IV has made a strong case for advancing of dates because overall it is in the interest of our community. More people will get EAD, AP benefits earlier and that is a big benefit for someone not being able to travel or change their job.

[gc_on_demand]

Originally Posted by LONGGCQUE

Support IV's cause fully. We need EAD/AP benefits.

DOS will not advance date because we want. DOS will only work the way congress has written law. I don't expect date will be current for EB2 India in few months but at the same time they will move at certain point where they feel they need to accommodate next year SOFAD.

Also don't forget that we are beneficiary but they are 2 difference agencies DOS + USCIS. I personally don't think USCIS will waste visas next year and also believe that if DOS wait till May 2012 for building pipeline then chances for more advancement is less.

[chikna]

Is there any benefit for EB3 people if EB2 becomes current?

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by chikna

Is there any benefit for EB3 people if EB2 becomes current?

In near term, chances of EB2 becoming current are zero.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

In near term, chances of EB2 becoming current are zero.

Do not have so high hopes of EB2 current

The upcoming visa bulletin may move only a week-10 days conservatively. Unless there are changes in the EB1 demand in the last couple of weeks I do not expect big movement.

Join IV advocacy effort and participate actively. It will help getting fixes done. We are working on some new action item and will announce soon.

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by pappu

Do not have so high hopes.

The upcoming visa bulletin may move only a week-10 days conservatively. Unless there are changes in the EB1 demand in the last couple of weeks I do not expect big movement.

Join IV advocacy effort and participate actively. It will help getting fixes done. We are working on some new action item and will announce soon.

may be you didn't read my response properly. I don't have any hope of EB2 becoming current.

[chikna]

Well then, I will start Masters this year. I waited for almost 13 years. There is no hope. I hoped for a CHANGE and now change is fading..... Who knows what Republican President can do for us? Obama winning next term is doubtful.