EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[rodnyb]

Seems NVS did get either an internal memo or email from CO that EB2 could be March 2008 min. (based on 6 months advance)

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

Why would CO take less intake and later face testimony from congress in case demand from EB1 / EB2 row comes less or USCIS put another memo for those category.

Since DOS is running out of visas in last two years in Sep , I strongly believe that CO will not go conservative.

Also there was some NVC fee notices till July 2008 and after that we haven't heard any new receipts issuance for later PDs. What does that tells is CO had made up his mind around May - June and Guided NVC about same.

[gc_on_demand]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

@vbkris / @gc_on_demand, Appreciate your thoughts, all very valid points. Let’s all hope for the best. What are your thoughts about the Nov bulletin specifically? I believe we will see further movement, 1 month at minimum, 2 months realistic; 3 months will be best case. Its almost imperative that some more intake is done this month.

Since DOS cannot wait for USCIS to pre adjudicate new cases and put into demand , some how DOS is reliable on USCIS to tell them I 485 receipts for EB2 I/C in Oct - Now. They have 8k on hand and if they receive 3k-4k in Oct. that will bring them 12k. and I think they will keep 30k to 35k buffer so they will need to take another 20-22k which is 10-12 month movement from July 2007 which is Aptil - July 2008. They can go 6-9 months in Nov and if they reach their target slow on Dec or based on Nov intake they may finish intake for DEC. Nov is guiding point so they will try to take as much as possible in Nov . As we all know DOS can't keep date open and USCIS can't hold I 485 for long. so they only have max 2 months and min 1 month to take intake. Divided intake in two months make no sense if they can do in one , since they are not sure how much they will get it , they will take big shot in Nov and dec is adjustment.

[jitian]

I hope that there will be a chance to file I485.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

Since DOS cannot wait for USCIS to pre adjudicate new cases and put into demand , some how DOS is reliable on USCIS to tell them I 485 receipts for EB2 I/C in Oct - Now. They have 8k on hand and if they receive 3k-4k in Oct. that will bring them 12k. and I think they will keep 30k to 35k buffer so they will need to take another 20-22k which is 10-12 month movement from July 2007 which is Aptil - July 2008. They can go 6-9 months in Nov and if they reach their target slow on Dec or based on Nov intake they may finish intake for DEC. Nov is guiding point so they will try to take as much as possible in Nov . As we all know DOS can't keep date open and USCIS can't hold I 485 for long. so they only have max 2 months and min 1 month to take intake. Divided intake in two months make no sense if they can do in one , since they are not sure how much they will get it , they will take big shot in Nov and dec is adjustment.

I agree with you completely, just to add if the VB is published by say 10th Oct, not all who are eligible to file will do it before that as people have the full month. So any kind of assessment based on Oct filing for Nov VB will be a difficult one this also augurs well for a larger Nov intake.

[gc_on_demand]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I agree with you completely, just to add if the VB is published by say 10th Oct, not all who are eligible to file will do it before that as people have the full month. So any kind of assessment based on Oct filing for Nov VB will be a difficult one this also augurs well for a larger Nov intake.

I totally overlooked VB publish date if that the case more liberal they will be Or more movement in Dec based on Nov filling. More intake in Dec than Nov.

[vbkris77]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

@vbkris / @gc_on_demand, Appreciate your thoughts, all very valid points. Let’s all hope for the best. What are your thoughts about the Nov bulletin specifically? I believe we will see further movement, 1 month at minimum, 2 months realistic; 3 months will be best case. Its almost imperative that some more intake is done this month.

3 Months will bring the cutoff date to Mid October with total pending AOS for IC to roughly 16-17K.

Problem with that strategy is those numbers look too big to consume until spillover starts and it will be too late.

That kind of movement will put them in a wrong path. But who knows, may be that's what they will do.

In my view DOS is not expected to police this way. All they have to ensure is that INA is followed to give visas per the limits established. It will be a very bad precedence.

Also the strategy fails fully if something unexpected happens, like EB1 demand reduction last year. When they accepted that the cutoff date movement is to accept new applications and not to issue visas at consular posts, they better be ready with the proper homework.

Also one observation I found is that there are quite a few I485 denials on the statistics I saw a while back. I am not sure why, but that needs to be baked into all the calculations..

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

Since DOS cannot wait for USCIS to pre adjudicate new cases and put into demand , some how DOS is reliable on USCIS to tell them I 485 receipts for EB2 I/C in Oct - Now. They have 8k on hand and if they receive 3k-4k in Oct. that will bring them 12k. and I think they will keep 30k to 35k buffer so they will need to take another 20-22k which is 10-12 month movement from July 2007 which is Aptil - July 2008. They can go 6-9 months in Nov and if they reach their target slow on Dec or based on Nov intake they may finish intake for DEC. Nov is guiding point so they will try to take as much as possible in Nov . As we all know DOS can't keep date open and USCIS can't hold I 485 for long. so they only have max 2 months and min 1 month to take intake. Divided intake in two months make no sense if they can do in one , since they are not sure how much they will get it , they will take big shot in Nov and dec is adjustment.

I agree with your numbers.

[moonrah]

Originally Posted by vbkris77

3 Months will bring the cutoff date to Mid October with total pending AOS for IC to roughly 16-17K.

Problem with that strategy is those numbers look too big to consume until spillover starts and it will be too late.

That kind of movement will put them in a wrong path. But who knows, may be that's what they will do.

In my view DOS is not expected to police this way. All they have to ensure is that INA is followed to give visas per the limits established. It will be a very bad precedence.

Also the strategy fails fully if something unexpected happens, like EB1 demand reduction last year. When they accepted that the cutoff date movement is to accept new applications and not to issue visas at consular posts, they better be ready with the proper homework.

Also one observation I found is that there are quite a few I485 denials on the statistics I saw a while back. I am not sure why, but that needs to be baked into all the calculations..



I agree with your numbers.

That sounds logical. And agree with you that nobody can predict what they are thinking..

[hsbaluja]

My priority date is July 12, 2007. This month my priority date is current and I called USCIS to make sure my current address on application is correct.
During this call rep told me that my 485 application is in Vermont Service Center but my wife and child application is in Nebraska Service Center. Should I care if they are processing applications in different service centers? if you guys faced or heard about this situation, Please provide your suggestions.

[akshaya10001]

When is next 485 inventory report available? any idea?

[Rb_newsletter]

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

Problem is he/she doesn't want to do any search he/she want ready made meal, nice if you help her/him to chew.

Problem is EB pundits keep replying to these kind of queries. Those queries should not be answered or they should be answered like the somu_2's reply.

Originally Posted by somu_2

Spend sometime in this thread...You will get an idea on where you stand.

[Rb_newsletter]

Originally Posted by vbkris77

As more time passed into the year without taking more visas, DOS tends to be more liberal. Need an example, july fiasco. This is exactly what happened then.

I have a "bad" habit of reading in between line. When DOS told in the last few bulletins that they will have to analyze I140 data to move the dates, that tells me that they haven't done that in years and have no clue where to start, because USCIS doesn't have that data accessible easily.

The very next month they moved the dates on a gut feel to touch waters, they were being conservative. As the time passes, they will go nervous about visa wastage because, next time they waste visas and get called into testimony, USCIS will have get out of jail pass. DOS didn't move dates properly. CO doesn't want it.

Also if you observe, I140 pending data is 30K as of July. So we passed the peak last year. The volume reduction also not automatically mean approvals.

Coming to EB1, EB2 spillover I think EB2 will get an overall numbers of 50K every year. A few years we could be luckier. DOL Perm data also tells me that the EB2 numbers are not much in ROW.

I don't want to raise hopes for people here, but it will be very difficult for DOS to justify if they didn't have enough applicants in the last quarter.

Disclaimer, they surprised us positively and negatively lot of times, so they can totally do something erratic and surprise us..

A very logic thought, I agree to you.

I have one thing to add. Visas will not be wasted. They will give the visas to EB3 and they have enough of EB3 waiting in pipeline.

[dagrawal]

Hi All,

Thanks to everyone for their best wishes. I got greened today. Below are my details:

PD June 29, 2007 - EB2 India
Filed AOS during July 2007 fiasco
Changed job in May 2010. Did not file AC 21 then
Primary AOS approved on Oct 04, 2011

Filed Spouse's AOS on Oct 03, 2011. Waiting for receipt.

Good luck to everyone. Hope everyone's wait ends soon.

Deepak

[pappu]

The current movement is on lines with what we discussed with officials. We are planning on talking with the officials after Nov bulletin is published this week and Propose strategy for dec bulletin. We want a more faster movement to build pipeline and based on the first month filings we should get a better idea.any way of finding how many IV members filed/are filing 485 in october?

Originally Posted by vbkris77

3 Months will bring the cutoff date to Mid October with total pending AOS for IC to roughly 16-17K.

Problem with that strategy is those numbers look too big to consume until spillover starts and it will be too late.

That kind of movement will put them in a wrong path. But who knows, may be that's what they will do.

In my view DOS is not expected to police this way. All they have to ensure is that INA is followed to give visas per the limits established. It will be a very bad precedence.

Also the strategy fails fully if something unexpected happens, like EB1 demand reduction last year. When they accepted that the cutoff date movement is to accept new applications and not to issue visas at consular posts, they better be ready with the proper homework.

Also one observation I found is that there are quite a few I485 denials on the statistics I saw a while back. I am not sure why, but that needs to be baked into all the calculations..



I agree with your numbers.

[venkat p]

Originally Posted by dagrawal

Hi All,

Thanks to everyone for their best wishes. I got greened today. Below are my details:

PD June 29, 2007 - EB2 India
Filed AOS during July 2007 fiasco
Changed job in May 2010. Did not file AC 21 then
Primary AOS approved on Oct 04, 2011

Filed Spouse's AOS on Oct 03, 2011. Waiting for receipt.

Good luck to everyone. Hope everyone's wait ends soon.

Deepak

Hi Deepak,
WHich service center from?

[gc_on_demand]

Originally Posted by pappu

The current movement is on lines with what we discussed with officials. We are planning on talking with the officials after Nov bulletin is published this week and Propose strategy for dec bulletin. We want a more faster movement to build pipeline and based on the first month filings we should get a better idea.any way of finding how many IV members filed/are filing 485 in october?

I thought they are not listening to any one and doing what they want with in legal framework.
I do remember when we got message from them that they are doing qtr spillover and this message was in 2009. History and data are against it. Date never moved in first , second or third qtr in any previous year except 2011. They may say that demand was too high for those months in those years but USCIS data doesn't show huge demand in any given month of year. Now one can argue that USCIS has lots of hidden demand from other offices but DOS's demand data move according with USCIS data and we haven't seen spike in either demand data or USCIS data in last 3 years.

If they are following what we say than his strategy doesn't make sense. Oct movement was up to previously reached date so will not yield huge amount of new app. If they hold on Nov month and then move dates in Dec then its no one but demand vs supply is driving date.

It will be foolish to buy that they are helping us by allowing more filling , they have to do it and they are doing it. Its not a favor on any one. If they sit tight and move nothing , they will end up making date current for all like July 2007. OR face congressional inquiry.

We should focus more on advocacy and leave them alone with their business sooner or later they will move date and they have to.

If they really want to do favor then they should make date CURRENT for all category in this bad economy time.