EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[goel_ar]

Originally Posted by pappu

The current movement is on lines with what we discussed with officials. We are planning on talking with the officials after Nov bulletin is published this week and Propose strategy for dec bulletin. We want a more faster movement to build pipeline and based on the first month filings we should get a better idea.any way of finding how many IV members filed/are filing 485 in october?

Pappu - what was discussed with officials? I always see you reply with such comments after VB is published. Any idea on Nov/Dec movement based on your past discussions with 'officials' ?

[druv]

Teddy,

I know it is early to ask but has your prediction changed after the demand data was released. If not sorry to bother you but if yes can you share your thoughts with us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by druv

Teddy,

I know it is early to ask but has your prediction changed after the demand data was released. If not sorry to bother you but if yes can you share your thoughts with us.

The overall projection remains the same; it is based on EB2 ROW and EB1 usage for which we do not have any data yet. The demand data definitely indicates that intake will happen early; let’s hope for the best for the Nov VB.

[pappu]

They listen to us and want more inputs.
Few of the meetings we have had are because they requested and not us trying to get a meeting. If they are not doing anything right, prepar a doc and send us and we will take it up. The oct date movement was a result of our discussion started many months ago. Yes the movement is convservative and they indicated to us beforehand. And the reasons for it. We should not be expecting all dates getting current or super fast movement or think that since the dates have not moved unto my PD USCIS and DOS are villins. They are very much willing to listen and also give us their thoughts. One should not expect them to implement everything we ask them. It is a 2 way dialog and they are decision makers in the end and they are answerable for doing wrong or right. We are happy with the level of discussions that have happened in recent past and this is good for us. We have to capitalize on that by getting more involved in advocacy. We have resisted posting updates of such meetings on the forum because it makes people get into an endless loop of number crunching and more number crunching 24/7 or just predicting and tracking. Other websites make money from it and that is what they want everyone to do to increase their page views and $. There is a herd mentality out there and when people see many people doing e same thing, they think it is cool and they join in. We want people to learn about the backlog from predictions and then use it to their advantage to help advocating for fixes so that they do not have to predict or track at all. We have to stop seeing everything from my PD and my category perspective. This is not how we think or work. A lot of active IV members who work tirelessly already have their green cards. But they are Helping because they want to genuinely fix the problem they have faced in their gc journey. So it is beyond seeing visa bulletins every month from a personal standpoint or just trying to find when 'I' am going to be current. This is e key reason why backlog exists today. We are divided among ourselves and think of me me me and not 'us'

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

I thought they are not listening to any one and doing what they want with in legal framework.
I do remember when we got message from them that they are doing qtr spillover and this message was in 2009. History and data are against it. Date never moved in first , second or third qtr in any previous year except 2011. They may say that demand was too high for those months in those years but USCIS data doesn't show huge demand in any given month of year. Now one can argue that USCIS has lots of hidden demand from other offices but DOS's demand data move according with USCIS data and we haven't seen spike in either demand data or USCIS data in last 3 years.

If they are following what we say than his strategy doesn't make sense. Oct movement was up to previously reached date so will not yield huge amount of new app. If they hold on Nov month and then move dates in Dec then its no one but demand vs supply is driving date.

It will be foolish to buy that they are helping us by allowing more filling , they have to do it and they are doing it. Its not a favor on any one. If they sit tight and move nothing , they will end up making date current for all like July 2007. OR face congressional inquiry.

We should focus more on advocacy and leave them alone with their business sooner or later they will move date and they have to.

If they really want to do favor then they should make date CURRENT for all category in this bad economy time.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Pappu, based on perm data 3K folks are expected to file for 485. The PWMB figure was calculated to be ~ 4K out which 3K should get their chance in October.

This is good to know. Thanks

[justice4all]

Originally Posted by arun_ramani

I see more of demand destruction from July 2007 to 2010 if they don't move dates sooner as most of them would soon leave or have left. It is very difficult to survive in H1B without EAD cushion in the current environment.

Dont remind me about it. I am one of PWMB's with 2003 PD on EB3, no EAD, no AP, no travel to India for years (tired of admin. processing) and current employer unwilling to port to EB2. NO OPTIONS (except to leave permanently)

God bless us all

[TeddyKoochu]

Current Approval Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9
Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.
The trend indicates significant number of approvals thus far. Though we are just into 3 days some thoughts a) EB1 and EB2 ROW are moving steady b) Porting is not small (I have been a believer in the higher end i.e 6K) c) Looks like they want to really approve cases this month it may well match the demand data reduction, this will burn out India’s annual cap completely this month itself at the current rate.
My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

[letstalklc]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Current Approval Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9
Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.
The trend indicates significant number of approvals thus far. Though we are just into 3 days some thoughts a) EB1 and EB2 ROW are moving steady b) Porting is not small (I have been a believer in the higher end i.e 6K) c) Looks like they want to really approve cases this month it may well match the demand data reduction, this will burn out India’s annual cap completely this month itself at the current rate.
My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

Teddy,

Thank you so much for all the good work, my gut feeling is that they will move 3 months in this bulletin and will analyse the count for next month intake, overall it will reach dec 2007 for sure in 2012, if the intake is early more people will get benefited, it's nice to see end of 2007.

If the intake doesn't happens in this month bulletin, does it means we have to wait until spillover period or can have any chance to happens before that?

Good luck all, fingers crossed.

[venkat p]

Teddy,
Which service center are they from..EB2--i dont see TSC cases at all..so curious.

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Current Approval Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9
Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.
The trend indicates significant number of approvals thus far. Though we are just into 3 days some thoughts a) EB1 and EB2 ROW are moving steady b) Porting is not small (I have been a believer in the higher end i.e 6K) c) Looks like they want to really approve cases this month it may well match the demand data reduction, this will burn out India’s annual cap completely this month itself at the current rate.
My projection for the year is that everyone in 2007 will get to file 485, now it’s entirely discretionary with DOS-USCIS how much intake they want to take this month irrespective of everything. Just my guess out of gut feeling if we have intake this month it would be 2-3 months of movement, there is no calculation behind this as we haven't seen much of data in 2012 yet. The fresh intake will happen if they are following the FB model of intake in Q1 and retro in Q2, if they want to follow quarterly spillover then the current inventory itself is good.

[arun_ramani]

eb2 Nov 2007. All the best

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by arun_ramani

eb2 Nov 2007. All the best

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

There has been a 3.5 months movement for EB2-I - 01-NOV-2007. Friends definitely inventory buildup is happening. Congrats to all those who became current, finally for me as well.

[Circle]

Originally Posted by arun_ramani

eb2 Nov 2007. All the best

Where??

[GC_1000Watt]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

There has been a 4.5 months movement for EB2-I - 01-NOV-2007. Friends definitely inventory buildup is happening. Congrats to all those who became current, finally for me as well.

Congratulations Teddy! You made it finally!!! Movement for Eb2-I is 3.5 months though and not 4.5 months.

[veni001]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

There has been a 4.5 months movement for EB2-I - 01-NOV-2007. Friends definitely inventory buildup is happening. Congrats to all those who became current, finally for me as well.

Congratulations Teddy.

[mangatha2011]

Congratuations & Great work Teddy and others.

I am missing by 4 days(EB2- 05-Nov-2007). May be wait till next month(Dec) bulletin.