EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[jindhal]

Originally Posted by neelu8

No, HR3012 completely eliminates country limits and makes it a FIFO system. The transition rules are in place so that it is not a sudden jolt to the system when the backlog is clearing and so that all backlogged countries get relief. In the transition period 85% is FIFO in 2012 (with 70% limit for a single country) and 90% is FIFO in 2013 and 2014. After the 3 years it is 100% FIFO for all EB categories.
Needless to stay in the first few years India, China, Mexico and Philippines are the primary beneficiaries of the FIFO system as these countries are backlogged. After that, it is whoever applied first, regardless of which country. No one in a certain EB category will get a green card before anyone else with a older priority date in that EB category.
Lofgren amendment which was approved by the Judiciary Committee removes transition rules for EB1, i.e EB1 will have no country limits right from the beginning (it does not really impact EB1 as they are always undersubscribed)

I second your opinion.

[hello]

Hi Guys
If HR 3012 becomes law.What would be the PD for EB3 and EB2?

[krupa]

It will depend on how many labor already cleared and pending for filing 485.
With the current pending I 485 status in OCT -2012 , India EB3 may get cleared till Dec -2004 and India EB2 may become current .

Originally Posted by hello

Hi Guys
If HR 3012 becomes law.What would be the PD for EB3 and EB2?

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by hello

Hi Guys
If HR 3012 becomes law.What would be the PD for EB3 and EB2?

EB2 will be 01-JAN-2009; EB3 will be 01-JAN-2004. Some of the allocation for this year has been consumed already that must be taken into account for any projections.

[AshokApex]

This month EB2 Cut off may be March 2008, i think.

[manchala]

Originally Posted by neelu8

IV has repeatedly met with the officials with precise data and is the reason why they are building pipeline now as opposed to later in the spillover season. And it was mentioned on this forum multiple times. Please understand Fragomen and Murthy are law firms and are quoting a statement from Oppenheimer. It is in their best interest to put this information out and claim knowledge. IV is the one actually meeting with these officials but it is not in IV's interest to put this out. That is the nature of advocacy. The goals here are bigger and in the interest of the bigger goals you have to strategically choose your plan of action.

Those of us involved in advocacy realize what it takes to even move a needle in Washington. Our opposition has budget in the millions of dollars. IV barely has enough, but has a important seat at the table because of this years of dedication of the leaders and active members. So if you are benefitting from this movement or from the bill, please realize you are enjoying the ride based on a lot of people's efforts and donations here. And that is totally fine, it is intended for everyone's benefit. But it will be great to have everyone's support to get us across the finish line and is much needed.

I agree.

anyone who feels bad about posts being deleted please think abt the damage it might cause to the families waiting for years and struggling. unknowingly there might be something negative in your post that might help antis. Please be with IV in this effort. Please do not take anything personal if your post gets deleted. Hope you understand.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by snathan

EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

Friends I would urge all to take all postings at different places and predictions everywhere including here based on your judgment and not literally at face value. It is very kind of CO to have shared with AILA about the Dec and future VB's however there is always a time lapse between that time and when the bulletin is declared. Since the situation can change in that time it can cause swings and changes to the final outcome. I hope that the dates move in the next bulletin itself because the I140 approvals are surging and EB2 ROW and EB1 inventory is rising these do not augur well for SOFAD. However since the 01-MAR-2008 comes from the man himself I hope it materializes.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends following are the Other Site comparisons for 2011.
EB2 ROW 2010 - 25
EB2 ROW 2011 - 63
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2010: 8 + 6 + 5 = 19
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2011: 3 + 2 + 20 = 25
Last year’s SOFAD was 30K lets split it as EB1 - 12K, EB5 - 6K, Regular Cap - 5.5K, EB2 ROW 6.5
- EB2 ROW usage is drastically down by 60%. This could really be good for SOFAD. If this trend continues
Then EB2 could well be providing very significant SOFAD.
Let’s assume decline to be 30% instead of 60%. As smaller figures do not mean smaller scale down literally they should be factored.
EB2 ROW SOFAD will be - (40-5.5) - 70/100 (40-5.5-6.5) = 34.5 - 19.6 = 15K.
- EB1 is overall in the same range down by 25%, however looking at the figures looks like the Kazarian memo is playing havoc with EB1 A & B diminishing and EB1C growing 4 fold.
Looks like EB1 should maintain the 12K SOFAD. It’s a must that the Kazarian trend is maintained or ROW decline should compensate it.
Despite high 485 inventory and high 140 figures the Other Site trend for October is highly encouraging. This is very early days however last year this early lead was very correct. With this early trend I believe that last year’s SOFAD level may well be maintained but let’s make note that it’s an early trend and Other Site represents only a small sample of data but the great advantage is that its well organized. For October yet another explanation could be that CO is giving away EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 excess to EB2 I/C on a monthly basis if it is literally true.
If last year’s SOFAD level is maintained then everyone in 2007 will have GC in hand by Sep 2012, however the other indicators suggest lesser movement than this. To take the Other Site trend concrete another 2 months of observation is required. The agencies IMHO must maintain 2 months as a buffer. Let’s all hope the Other Site trend holds.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by AshokApex

This month EB2 Cut off may be March 2008, i think.

These are just my personal beliefs. The movement will happen only in the Dec bulletin because definitely a wave is coming by I140 and I485.
The date range could be 01-JAN-2008 to 01-MAR-2008 (Date From CO).
Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2007 to 31st Dec 2007. The Other site trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

[madhekar]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

These are just my personal beliefs. The movement will happen only in the Dec bulletin because definitely a wave is coming by I140 and I485.
The date range could be 01-JAN-2008 to 01-MAR-2008 (Date From CO).
Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2011 to 31st Dec 2011. The Other site trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

Teddy,

Can you explain this "a wave is coming by I140 and I485." .
i think we know how many i-140 are ready for 2008 & 2009 as they are all approved & waiting for I485

[manchala]

People can expect some good movement in Jan bulletin that comes in Dec. Probably March 2008.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by madhekar

Teddy,

Can you explain this "a wave is coming by I140 and I485." .
i think we know how many i-140 are ready for 2008 & 2009 as they are all approved & waiting for I485

You can have a look at the latest I485 Inventory and USCIS I140 dashboard.

[Circle]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

These are just my personal beliefs. The movement will happen only in the Dec bulletin because definitely a wave is coming by I140 and I485.
The date range could be 01-JAN-2008 to 01-MAR-2008 (Date From CO).
Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2011 to 31st Dec 2011. The Other site trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

Teddy: I am sorry but I didn't understand the range (01 Nov 2011 to 31st Dec 2011) you provided for GC in hand. What priority dates you are referring to here?

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by Circle

Teddy: I am sorry but I didn't understand the range (01 Nov 2011 to 31st Dec 2011) you provided for GC in hand. What priority dates you are referring to here?

My apologies there was a typo I intended to refer to 2007, original post corrected.

Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2007 to 31st Dec 2007. The Other site trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

[RaOne2011]

Teddy - My PD is Feb 2003 (EB3-I)....Any predictions on when it may be current with or without HR 3012. My lawyer is also working on submitting a pre-certification labor with EB2 and he said the entire process can take 12-18 months. Just wanted to make ur predictions.

Also, another query...i applied for 485 in July 2007 and got married later. Lawyer said that my wife's 485 has to be applied within 2 weeks or so of my date becoming current, else it may be an issue. Any advise? Thanks!