EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[shamlal]

Thank you so much Teddy… Reading you predictions has become part of my life for past year. Hope everyone gets greened soon…

[smanohar]

Originally Posted by prem_goel

Congrats smanohar and rakesh76 . If you don't mind, can you share if you did anything that helped USCIS pick up your application and approve? Things such as calling USCIS helpline, raising a Service Request, meeting senator etc?

Also, just to help with my own theory, had you recently applied for EAD or AP? And this may sound ridiculous, but nevertheless, does your last name start with the first few alphabets of english, such as A, B, C etc...?

...just trying to understand what protocol USCIS follows in selecting pre-adjudicated applications for approval.

Thanks prem_goel. I didn't do anything. Last EAD/AP was applied in last year October. In fact I decided not to apply for AP last month when dates became current for me and No my last name doesn't start with A,B,C etc .

I guess they are using PD as the "protocol" because if you see the other tracking site then you will see applications with PD around 25 th July getting approved in last 4 - 5 days.

All the best and hang in there.

[gcforevr]

Teddy, for Nov 1st filers, how long do you think before receipting is done (NSC)? Also, are biometrics required to get the EAD/AP card? Thanks!

[letstalklc]

As per the October filers tracker, I see majority of them got in 2nd week (mid to end) whoever filed in 1st week of October, so guessing the same trend for November filers too, my application has reached to Dallas Lock Box on Nov 1st early hours(8.50AM), hoping for the receipt no some time next week Wednesday to Saturday (receipts will come in through postal service).

I am not sure about EAD/AP approval without bio metrics, but strongly thinking that you have to get it to be done in order to get EAD and AP.

Will see some updates next week mid hopefully

Good luck with the next steps

[hbk]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I did not get anything from my attorney except for the confirmation. However since I have sent personal cheques I can see when they will get encashed, someone mentioned it takes a week. Since 10K applications just I + C will be reaching them it will be slow.

Hi Teddy,

Did your cheque's get encashed ?

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

[doknek]

Waiting for Dec VB to come out... I am 28 Nov 2007 eb2 PD. Hoping for some good news after a long wait.

Am checking these forums and state bulletin site like crazy.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by hbk

Hi Teddy,

Did your cheque's get encashed ?

Will greatly appreciate your response.

Regards.

Not yet still awaiting the same, hopefully by this week I believe few people should have cheques encashed or receipts received.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by gcforevr

Teddy, for Nov 1st filers, how long do you think before receipting is done (NSC)? Also, are biometrics required to get the EAD/AP card? Thanks!

Receipting may take 2 weeks from submission because of the high number of filings ~ 10K. So far no one has reported cheques being encashed or receipting.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by shamlal

Thank you so much Teddy… Reading you predictions has become part of my life for past year. Hope everyone gets greened soon…

Congratulations & Thanks for sharing the good news with all of us. Enjoy your green life.

[SGP]

Hi Teddy,

First of all I would like to thank you for your efforts and predictions. My PD is Nov 8, 2002 (EB3I). I missed the 2007 boat. I have yet to file for I-485. Could you please predict when could I expect to file for I485 and then how much longer would it take to to get "GREENED"

If I can say "TeddyKoochu" Baba Ki Jai

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by shouldIwait

Here's how I arrived at this data. Based upon my description you can decide whether or not I omitted anything. I started with combining PERM data from all of the previous years and filtered on India and included "Certified" and "Certified Expired" cases. I then extracted the actual priority date from the A#(which is hidden in Julian day format) and ordered the entire set by priority date. Next, I excluded all the data for which Priority Date as well as Approval Date was before Fiasco, because they were already included in the I-485 inventory. The remaining information was grouped by month based upon priority-date. Then I multiplied by 0.75 (the EB2/EB3 ratio) and then by 2.2 (the family multiplier).
So, this includes ALL of PWMB and when we are considering a total inventory target for this year burnt inventory needn't be substracted as it is these people who are getting these GC's.

The logic looks sound; I believe you are capturing everyone including China as well. The figures for the months before Jul 2007 look a little week. On another note have a look at the Oct Inventory for Jul 2007 you will find that the EB2 I + C count exceeds 3000.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by SGP

Hi Teddy,

First of all I would like to thank you for your efforts and predictions. My PD is Nov 8, 2002 (EB3I). I missed the 2007 boat. I have yet to file for I-485. Could you please predict when could I expect to file for I485 and then how much longer would it take to to get "GREENED"

If I can say "TeddyKoochu" Baba Ki Jai

I believe you are on the fringe of EB3-I this year there are 3300 people ahead of you. This kind of exceeds the Eb3-I yearly allocation but I believe that there are gaps in the EB3 Inventory. You should have your chance between Sep 2012 and Dec 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by srhari

Teddy,
Your inputs are priceless and your tireless effort to answer our questions are much appreciated.

My PD is June 2009 EB2-I. Any idea, when my PD would become current with and without HR 3012? I really tried to calculate the numbers myself with all the information that I read here in this post, but unfortunately, I couldn't get that. Appreciate the help.

Regards,
Hari.

EB2 outlook is currently 5 years so sometime in Jun 2014 your days should be current. However if 3012 passed it could become 1.5 years instead of 3.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by gaz

whats the outlook for 2012 if the next bulletin does bring about Mar 01? do you see post mar 01 being the new pwmb?

Everything depends on the following 3 factors.

1) What SOFAD is expected if its 30K then CO's prediction will be realized in this VB itself. Move backwards by 1 month for every 3K less.
2) What kind of buffer CO needs, ideally he should work with a small buffer to justify the same kind of thing in the next year as well.
3) Current I140 backlog is 30K as opposed to 15K last year if this is cleared to last years level SOFAD might drop by 8-10K.

The current approval trend is very encouraging but we should be cognizant to the fact that 8.5K SOFAD has been used already. IMHO the chances of this bulletin going to 01-MAR are 50-50, there is definitely some chance for the next one as well if this fails. Let’s see some of the comments and guidance in the VB. It will be a very close race for all Q1 2008 folks. All the very best.

[phigi]

fyi - the check sent was encashed on friday - 11/4 for my AoS.
i saw many people asking around here.