EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[hbk]

Originally Posted by mzc123

Hbk, what service center did you send your AOS? Did you receive the FP notice from same center?

Service center is Texas & got FP notice from TSC only.

[nat23]

Teddy

if I'm not wrong you and pappu had a side bar last week on the number of applications received by USCIS.

Anything to add from that conversation.

Cheers
Nat

[lovenil]

teddy,

can you put on front page , your prediction of receiving (or getting I-485 approval) green cards who applied 485 in oct -nov and would be applying in dec.

I remember you saying that folks till Nov 07 dates for EB2- India should get green card by 2012 Fiscal year end for sure and Dec 07 people have 50% chance of getting greened this fiscal year.

Is this prediction still valid?

[akshaya10001]

At the begin of year pending cases which are pre-adjudicated are 14K, the people who are pessimistic why can't they expect same at begin of next year at-least lower levels at $8K , then they need to move 4 more months than need to cover this year spill over.

even after CO said he will probably move to march'2008, last month couple of senior members repeatedly posted their prediction movement will be 1-2 months only for Dec'2010 visa bulletin, if any one see these guys messages last year always they are more hopeful than CO predictions in the visa bulletin but now they feel pessimistic as they become current in last 1-2 months. if you waited 4 years doesn't need others need to wait 4 years, things are more positive now compare to when you filed.

[winsomelad]

Quote:
Originally Posted by sanchit_raizada
i am a novice - just wanted to take inputs on when can i expect my priority date of April, 2011 (EB2- india) to become current. I am in 6th yr of H1B - pardon me for me ignorance.
It's so far out that it would only be a guess if someone told you how long it would take to get your green card. But the general rule of thumb is 4 years to get an EAD and another year (total 5) to get the green card. This is for EB2-I.


Hi Guy's,

Please don't predict cloud guesses, we never know what it will be in next couple of year's. If you are accurate about data, pls post with it. Do any one predicted the EB2 forward movement, as it is now. Scenario of VB will be designed with law's, bill's & economy. I am sorry, If my comments are not that mature.

[thomachan72]

Let us hope that the CO does not visit this thread to decide whether to advance PD any further this year
If he does not review this thread.....maybe we might be in for a surprise
Meanwhile let us participate in the current action item by contributing time/money to IVs bills (3012 and 1875)

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by nat23

Teddy

if I'm not wrong you and pappu had a side bar last week on the number of applications received by USCIS.

Anything to add from that conversation.

Cheers
Nat

I have not receipt anything from Pappu.

Originally Posted by lovenil

teddy,

can you put on front page , your prediction of receiving (or getting I-485 approval) green cards who applied 485 in oct -nov and would be applying in dec.

I remember you saying that folks till Nov 07 dates for EB2- India should get green card by 2012 Fiscal year end for sure and Dec 07 people have 50% chance of getting greened this fiscal year.

Is this prediction still valid?

Even Dec folks receiving GC looks quite likely, I will update the thread header once we can monitor EB2 ROW and EB1 more.

[ctm1234]

Teddy ,

I am reading lot of info on this and other forums and I could not predict what will happen to EB-2 April 2009 if HR 3012 passes.

Please ..

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by ctm1234

Teddy ,

I am reading so many info on this and many forum and I could not predict what will happen to EB-2 April 2009 if HR 3012 passes.

Please ..

Best case scenario;
EB2 will become current
EB3 will move to atleast 2005

[tiny]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

In the last 4 months USCIS has approved 20K extra I40's more than their regular rate. This would for sure infuse more Eb2 ROW and EB1 numbers. Last year we saw probably the highest ever SOFAD estimated at 30K, this was largely due to I140 slowdown due to the Kazarian memo for EB1 A & B and I140 slowdown or extra scrutiny in general. The number of receipts in 2011 for I140 was actually more than 2010, so if all these cases are now cleared out and assuming 50% of this was absorbed in 2011 then this will impact SOFAD by a minimum of 5K. As per our calculations the intake is 20K and usage is 8.5K so we have probably exceeded the 25K figure. Therefore I feel that the maximum forward movement possible is 2 months now and it should likely happen in the next VB. If CO feels that there are sufficient numbers in the system by counting the Nov filings and proportioning the Dec filings then it may be time for dates to retrogress. We should be grateful to all the law firms and AILA for the Mar projection that turned out to be accurate but in line with the current situation drastic forward movement cannot be justified, however if CO intends to have a very large buffer anyways then it’s possible. So if anybody hears any news please post without any hesitation for everyone's benefit.
@Vick I have not heard anything back on that subject.
@gc_on_demand – It’s only TSC folks getting FP notices, I got mine on 19th and FP date is 25th. Folks from NSC are mostly waiting in this regard.

For FP date even PD might be deciding factor. My PD is in Oct'07 and I 485 went to TSC but I am still waiting for FP.
RD: 11/04/2011
ND: 11/07/2011
FP: waiting

[mzc123]

Originally Posted by hbk

Service center is Texas & got FP notice from TSC only.

Teddy/hbk/others,

I submitted AOS in Oct (last week of Oct) and have not yet recieved the FP notice. My AOS was sent to TSC and I recieved the notices from TSC.
Anything that you guys can suggest that I need to dig into and see why I have not recieved FP notice yet?

Thanks

[ananyaganguly]

Need expert advice on interfiling.
Hello everyone ,
I know this is not the right forum but need some urgent advice regarding interfiling. I am current on dec 1st and need to file my I485,
I have an approved I 140(EB2) from a previous employer with PD of 28th nov 2007 and I also have an I 140(EB2) approval from my current employer with 2010 PD.
I have all my documents ready and handed over to my employers paralegal along with a copy of my old I 140 to port that date ,now my attorney is saying she will just file I 485 with the old I 140 and it is not required to give the new I140 (the one from my current employer)with the paperwork as uscis might get confused .
I am confused and seeking advise on this forum ,in order to retain the old date and show my current employment isn't it necessary to submit both the I140and requesting uscis to use the old date.
what would be the step by step procedure to interfile ,trying to avoid any complexity and rfe.
Also can this interfile happen before dec 1st or it can only be done on or after dec 1st.

Will appreciate advise from experts .
thanks
ananya

[smuggymba]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Yes Vick I think thats what Teddy implies.However, he does not point out when and how the next phase of PD movments will occur. It is painful to hear that from expert analyzers but we do have hope and that is in supporting the current IV initiatives. Our cry has been taken to ears of lawmakers of this nation by IV and let us do our tiny part in this effort. Now I am ready for my thumbsdowns (only 3-4 please)

gave u some green to balance out the reds

[sj8ua]

Just donated money for HR 3012. Good to see some traction!
Confirmation Id: 69U45328KM182653H.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Best case scenario;
EB2 will become current
EB3 will move to atleast 2005

The dates will likely be

EB3-I - 01-JAN-2005
EB2-I - 01-JAN-2010.

Good luck to HR3012, its much needed fairness in the system.