EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[macy77]

Can someone tell me what is the current 485 application they are processing at the Texas Service Center?

On the website it says:


I-485 Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status Employment-based adjustment applications March 29, 2011

This is as of:
Field Office Processing Dates for Texas Service Center as of: September 30, 2011


So the current I am not sure where it is?

Regards

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by mk26

Just a thought -- plz don't give me red, Is it possible CO is wrong in calculation compare to Teddy's calculation and resulting an un expected movement.

Thanks for your kind words. CO in all likelihood is creating a future inventory. If account for the approvals already done the figure is already at 45K. The size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion.

[nat23]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks for your kind words. CO in all likelihood is creating a future inventory. If account for the approvals already done the figure is already at 45K. The size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion.

Teddy

Are we 100% sure that the approvals in the last quarter were from QSP and not from the left over numbers from prior FY

Cheers
Nat

[h1techSlave]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks for your kind words. CO in all likelihood is creating a future inventory. If account for the approvals already done the figure is already at 45K. The size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion.

If the "size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion", what is preventing him from building an inventory of 100, 000 applications? And thus making EB2 current?

[Saralayar]

Originally Posted by h1techSlave

If the "size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion", what is preventing him from building an inventory of 100, 000 applications? And thus making EB2 current?

I like your comments....

[Rb_newsletter]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

After HR 3012 passes EB3-I will get a lion's share of visas from the EB3 allocation of 40K and will move fast till it catches up with EB3 ROW. EB2 even after HR 3012 passes will not become current anytime soon, EB2 ROW will see a priority date established as it will retrogress.

After HR 3012 passed there is no I, C, ROW, etc. There will be only EB2, EB3,..

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by h1techSlave

If the "size of the future inventory is totally at his discretion", what is preventing him from building an inventory of 100, 000 applications? And thus making EB2 current?

What happened with Jan 2012 VB movement is something we have already seen in july 2007.
July 2007 was a mistake that they tried to correct in vain.
9 months movement is more reasonable than opening up flood gates.

By moving 9 months, CO is expecting to build a sizeable inventory for 2012 and possibly early 2013 quota.

[Rb_newsletter]

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

This movement will only give you EAD/AP. Only way to go is HR-3012. Please follow the action items.

[mechanical13]

Folks,

The CO language appears to indicate that the intent of this forward movement in PD is in order to avoid Visa # wastage.

There is no reason for the VB to mention this fact. I am inclined to believe that this is about demand destruction.

For the calculation Gurus: Based on original estimates and current movement, can we estimate % perm demand destruction? This will enable us to extrapolate this trend to see how many more months of intake can be expected.

Teddy/ Others - your thoughts would be appreciated.

[FedUpwithGC]

Originally Posted by mechanical13

Folks,

The CO language appears to indicate that the intent of this forward movement in PD is in order to avoid Visa # wastage.

There is no reason for the VB to mention this fact. I am inclined to believe that this is about demand destruction.

For the calculation Gurus: Based on original estimates and current movement, can we estimate % perm demand destruction? This will enable us to extrapolate this trend to see how many more months of intake can be expected.

Teddy/ Others - your thoughts would be appreciated.

DOL mentioned that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had a PERM approved in file (EB3->EB2 Porting) which may be the cause for significant EB2 movement in January. As most of the EB3 folks ported their dates after 2007 fiasco maybe 2008 will be lighter than we expect for actual EB2 filers.

Just my 2 Cents...

[shankar24]

my pd is aug 2010 eb2 any chance of being current in next 2 bulletins?

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by mechanical13

Folks,

The CO language appears to indicate that the intent of this forward movement in PD is in order to avoid Visa # wastage.

There is no reason for the VB to mention this fact. I am inclined to believe that this is about demand destruction.

For the calculation Gurus: Based on original estimates and current movement, can we estimate % perm demand destruction? This will enable us to extrapolate this trend to see how many more months of intake can be expected.

Teddy/ Others - your thoughts would be appreciated.

sorry, but what exactly is "demand destruction"?

[helpful_leo]

Apologize for this post - cannot see a more appropriate active thread.

Can somebody please clarify these elementary concepts for me:

1/ I got current in today's i.e. Jan bulletin (totally unexpected, late Dec PD).
Does this mean we can apply for I-485 only on Jan 1st (and not next week)?

2/ How long is the I-485 application window period open? Jan 1-31st?

3/ I see a lot of posts and lawyer letters ask for "all your past I-797s / I-20s / I-94s". (But not the USCIS instructions here http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf ).

I do not have a copy of my first I-20 from 11 years ago, or the earlier I-797s? I do have most documentation from last 5 years.
Is this critical? Any way around it?

4/ Can we ask our company lawyer to file for our EAD / AP with the I-485? Does this usually concern the employers, as the AC21 clock starts ticking after EAD application (because of post-6yr H1B extension, EAD is not really needed in our case).

Apologize for long list of Qs!
_____________________________

$300.00 till now for H.R. 3012

[anemmani]

Originally Posted by helpful_leo

Apologize for this post - cannot see a more appropriate active thread.

Can somebody please clarify these elementary concepts for me:

1/ I got current in today's i.e. Jan bulletin (totally unexpected, late Dec PD).
Does this mean we can apply for I-485 only on Jan 1st (and not next week)?

2/ How long is the I-485 application window period open? Jan 1-31st?

3/ I see a lot of posts and lawyer letters ask for "all your past I-797s / I-20s / I-94s". (But not the USCIS instructions here http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf ).

I do not have a copy of my first I-20 from 11 years ago, or the earlier I-797s? I do have most documentation from last 5 years.
Is this critical? Any way around it?

4/ Can we ask our company lawyer to file for our EAD / AP with the I-485? Does this usually concern the employers, as the AC21 clock starts ticking after EAD application (because of post-6yr H1B extension, EAD is not really needed in our case).

Apologize for long list of Qs!
_____________________________

$300.00 till now for H.R. 3012

leo,

congratulations for your pd getting current in january.

1. your i485 application with all the supporting documents can be delivered to the uscis on any business day during the month[s] during which you are current.

2. i.e. any business day (for uscis) between jan 1st and jan 31st

3. the i797/i20/i94 are required the document your legal presence in US.

4. only photocopies of all previous i797/i20s and current i94 are required. if you do not have them contact your lawyer to disuss options.

5. you can request your company lawyer to file i131 and i765 applications along with your i485. there is no additional filing fee when these are mailed along with your i485.

good luck,
nag

[vvext]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I think a better way of saying would be that predictions backed by calculations were exceeded. This is because we are in the discretion territory. I believe you have chosen the wrong post to comment, the poster there was just wishing that his / her date becomes current. With regards me Iam certainly happy that more and more people are getting current. We all create hope on this blog but try to be realistic, it is not correct to create unrealistic expectations, however when the results surprise us it’s a reason to feel happy nothing wrong with the approach. The current movement is totally discretion driven to create inventory.

Sorry if you or anyone felt bad about my sarcasm....