EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[Michael chertoff]

Originally Posted by vishwak

Bulletin Out....no Change for EB2-I

EB2-I needs to wait till July...people like me.

There is no guarantee that you will get in July. If all EB3 will jump in front of you then you have to wait till JULY 2020.

MC

[little_willy]

MC - Why so much hatred towards EB3. Come July, you will be out of this misery but not the EB3 folks. You don't have the patience to wait for few months and blame people waiting for years and trying to expedite their case by following the rules.

Anyway, here is Ron Gotcher's take on this, I thought of you when I read this.
http://www.immigration-information.c...html#post55498

[silveroaks]

Teddy/GCWait
one thread above has a good question about counselor numbers. Do we have these numbers accounted in all our calculations?

Thanks,

[AshokApex]

March 2011 already released and still may 2006 , what hope for my PD which is 2008 March in EB2.

any hope in next 2 years.

when i can expect my number.

Thanks
A-

[krish2006]

Originally Posted by silveroaks

Teddy/GCWait
one thread above has a good question about counselor numbers. Do we have these numbers accounted in all our calculations?

Thanks,

In the first post of this Thread there is a CP column. These caclulations takes into consideration consular processing numbers. (about 100 a month in the calculations)

[veni001]

Originally Posted by AshokApex

March 2011 already released and still may 2006 , what hope for my PD which is 2008 March in EB2.

any hope in next 2 years.

when i can expect my number.

Thanks
A-

Rule of 5, so you will get a chance by Sept 2013.

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by veni001

Rule of 5, so you will get a chance by Sept 2013.

assumption: without (or) less porting

[bratramm]

Given that the PD (EB2-I) has not moved since October 2010, would it be fair to say that the reason is mostly due to porting (EB3-I)? I am sure that there are other reasons, but porting seems to be the biggest user of the monthly quota.....
Which would mean about 250 ports a month-almost 3000 ports a year, for PD before May 2006!
Also I am sure people with PD later than May 2006 are also porting, but their numbers would not affect the movement just yet, but as TEDDY says, 6000 does not seem to be a very big number anymore. People with PD beyond 2005/2006 are more likely to port than those with PD before. That number (6000) is only going to grow more and more till EB2-I movement stops completely and retrogresses.

dont know if that qualifies as good news or bad news....
It could be worse.....the dates could be retrogressing to keep up with the porting overload....
cheers
[/quote]
- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.


__________________[/quote]

[gcwait2007]

Originally Posted by bratramm

Given that the PD (EB2-I) has not moved since October 2010, would it be fair to say that the reason is mostly due to porting (EB3-I)? I am sure that there are other reasons, but porting seems to be the biggest user of the monthly quota.....
Which would mean about 250 ports a month-almost 3000 ports a year, for PD before May 2006!
Also I am sure people with PD later than May 2006 are also porting, but their numbers would not affect the movement just yet, but as TEDDY says, 6000 does not seem to be a very big number anymore. People with PD beyond 2005/2006 are more likely to port than those with PD before. That number (6000) is only going to grow more and more till EB2-I movement stops completely and retrogresses.

dont know if that qualifies as good news or bad news....
It could be worse.....the dates could be retrogressing to keep up with the porting overload....
cheers

- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.

Porting cannot go happening all the time. It is a standard distribution (bell shaped curve); it begins slowly; peaks at some point of time and slowly ends.

The beginning happened about 2 years ago, around 2008. The peaking has been happened in late 2009 and 2010. Whoever can port to EB2India, they tried these 2 years and ported. The porting is on the decline, as per comments from well known immig attorney Ron Gotcher.

[bratramm]

I think porting is here to stay.....I just am not sure how exponentially high it is going to go up....
....given the current climate of EB2 moving faster than the EB3, and given the widening gap between the two, there will be more people who will greatly benefit by "moving up".....
...think about it...someone files for EB3 now....and knows very well that it will take about 15 years to get a GC.....but in 5 yrs, they might get upgraded to EB2 and still retain the PD from the EB3 and get a GC instantly......
....soon EB2 will start porting to EB1.....if not already.....i am surpirsed that the EB1 numbers are as low as they are....for every 10 people that port to EB2, at least one person must be porting to EB1......

but anyway, i dont want to take this topic from its path......its all about the calculations....come July, its all about reality,.....

[gcpb]

Originally Posted by gcwait2007

Porting cannot go happening all the time. It is a standard distribution (bell shaped curve); it begins slowly; peaks at some point of time and slowly ends.

The beginning happened about 2 years ago, around 2008. The peaking has been happened in late 2009 and 2010. Whoever can port to EB2India, they tried these 2 years and ported. The porting is on the decline, as per comments from well known immig attorney Ron Gotcher.

Whie porting activity may be a bell shaped curve which may well be on the decline, note that its impact will NOT be bell shaped. What I mean to say is those with later PD will be more motivated to port. Thus the distribution of PD will be more heavy for later years. This will lead to greater EB2 inventory for later years. Thus, we should not underestimate this factor

[snathan]

Originally Posted by gcpb

Whie porting activity may be a bell shaped curve which may well be on the decline, note that its impact will NOT be bell shaped. What I mean to say is those with later PD will be more motivated to port. Thus the distribution of PD will be more heavy for later years. This will lead to greater EB2 inventory for later years. Thus, we should not underestimate this factor

If more people are porting, it’s going to invite more scrutiny from the USCIS like the H1B, L1B. I am sure the porting will completely stop if it’s not genuine as its going to jeoparadise their EB3 also. Just it’s a matter of time. So chill out.

[bratramm]

I was trying to go back to the original forum thread and understand teh calculations posted by the likes of and rest, but I am never able to hold on to one page....

...long story short, I wanted tos ee what lessons we can learn from our prediction model from lat year-we were so hopeful to be past 2007 last year, but never did that...where were we so optimistic last year? which part of the calclulation did not pan out as we thought they would?

as we head to the last quarter, it might do us some good to reflect back on the work of others before....just a thought

[RamBihari]

Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.

[waitingnwaiting]

Originally Posted by RamBihari

Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.

So you created a profile just to post this?
Can't you post this from your own original profile? Why are so scared to post something from your original profile if you really believe in something.