EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by adheet

Hello Teddy & Others,
Firstly, a big thanks for all the wealth of information being shared on this site. It's probable that the answer to my below question can be searched for within this thread, but I would appreciate your most current prediction/calculation:

My priority date is 18 Feb 2003 in the EB3 category. I had applied for 485 in July 2007. Without HR 3012, when can I expect my date to become current?

Thanks so much.

There are more than 6K people ahead of you. EB3-I is passing through a very high density zone. It will take more than 2 years without HR 3012. Most likely you are looking at 2.25 to 2.5 years to get GC as folks with your kind of PD or earlier are not porting. With HR 3012 you will be greened within a quarter.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by eastindia

Dear IV friend, these words of appreciation have no meaning and value unless there is a proof that you are a man of your words. May I ask you why is it you have not donated to IV so far especially when IV is working on an important legislation? Most people who predict and post everyday are non-donors. Is it because they are just about to get current and do not bother whether IV succeeds or not and 3012 passes or not. How does it help to predict each day with new predictions? The whole facade of clarity is an entertainment. This is why astrologers in India are rich people and almost every indian is blind after astrology and palm readers. So no matter I write it will not convince the so called 'bringing clarity' folks because we all belong to the same country culture. Let us agree to disagree here.

My friend proof is in the pudding and I support only those who actually do work for HR3012, donate, volunteer and go to IV meetings.

The OP in this case was very politely replying to another individual who has been a very good contributor not only to this thread but to IV in general. This thread is about predictions and calculations and the primary audience here is EB2 / EB3 India retrogressed, it’s a no brainer that every one of us supports this bill to the innermost corners of our heart.
None of us have become current overnight, it has taken 4.5 years since the Jul 2007 event to have the dates move this far. We are all happy for our friends who can atleast see temporary benefits now; I hope you are gracious enough to be happy for your friends. Participation level of any individual should be best left to the individual this is not a primary school where the headmaster needs to remind every morning what the students are supposed to do every day. People know what they need to do and they will do what they like to do no matter what others may think or say, motivation requires instilling positive energy, make people see the benefits not negativity and ridicule. If you really want to motivate and encourage people do it by positive means and the first step towards that is showing some level of basic courtesy and respect. By ridiculing people you are actually not going to get any volunteers but you will definitely succeed in alienating quite a few people, I hope you and some other individuals understand the futility of what you are doing and the irreparable harm that you are causing to the organization itself. On HR 3012 this is the only thread that shows the benefits to both EB2 and EB3 India, the way to motivate people is to show them the benefit.
Additionally nobody is making millions here or elsewhere by participating in predictions and calculations; however what we get is something greater it is the satisfaction of being able to help and bring clarity to the lives of other readers of this blog who are stuck in their wait for green card. This thread in particular has the highest readership on IV it definitely helps to make the site more popular, since you are so concerned about astrologers being rich here the only IV is benefiting not any individual, I hope you understand this very clearly. Just to make it clearer to you what I have got is immense satisfaction and great wishes from many that is the biggest thing to me and the 6 million plus views is the contribution from this thread and all its contributors, probably you can value it suitably. We are not saying that people like you should acknowledge anything but what is expected that you do not twist and mis-represent things.
Additionally we do not predict differently everyday, this is not about picking tarot cards if you understand, this is based purely on numbers and understanding around it. Some events may not strictly conform to numbers because there is a huge element of discretion involved. Recently you had posted that there is great information available on the donor forum, I do see several donors also participate on this thread, let me tell you in the internet age information is available everywhere the one who gets credit is the one who is the first to share it. This is not a breaking news channel either; the Jan VB was beyond everyone’s expectations and truly a great event. The rationale behind it is clearly that they are building a much larger pipeline for several reasons; the core predictions and underlying calculations remain unchanged. This is not dogmatic either change in interpretations is bound to happen and is a healthy thing, we learn from each other here to everyone’s benefits.
For the last 2 years the predictions have been almost spot on it started at a time when people found it hard to believe what was being said and now people are magnetically attracted here including those who keep saying that this is a waste of time. This is not entertainment, this is something that touches people’s life and I hope next time you and a few other will have better words and more sensitivity before you say something.

[sk.aggarwal]

Teddy, I completely second your comments. There is a reason why this is the most visited thread on IV. Folks who contribute here or other threads are helping fellow IV members who will/may join with IV and spread the word. This is there contribution to the movement. All of us are mature adults. Please don't tell us what to do or not do. If you think this thread is a waste of time, please dont visit and waste your hopefully valuable time posting here. TD and others have done an enormous contribution by leading this thread. Let's respect and honor that.

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The OP in this case was very politely replying to another individual who has been a very good contributor not only to this thread but to IV in general. This thread is about predictions and calculations and the primary audience here is EB2 / EB3 India retrogressed, it’s a no brainer that every one of us supports this bill to the innermost corners of our heart.
None of us have become current overnight, it has taken 4.5 years since the Jul 2007 event to have the dates move this far. We are all happy for our friends who can atleast see temporary benefits now; I hope you are gracious enough to be happy for your friends. Participation level of any individual should be best left to the individual this is not a primary school where the headmaster needs to remind every morning what the students are supposed to do every day. People know what they need to do and they will do what they like to do no matter what others may think or say, motivation requires instilling positive energy, make people see the benefits not negativity and ridicule. If you really want to motivate and encourage people do it by positive means and the first step towards that is showing some level of basic courtesy and respect. By ridiculing people you are actually not going to get any volunteers but you will definitely succeed in alienating quite a few people, I hope you and some other individuals understand the futility of what you are doing and the irreparable harm that you are causing to the organization itself. On HR 3012 this is the only thread that shows the benefits to both EB2 and EB3 India, the way to motivate people is to show them the benefit.
Additionally nobody is making millions here or elsewhere by participating in predictions and calculations; however what we get is something greater it is the satisfaction of being able to help and bring clarity to the lives of other readers of this blog who are stuck in their wait for green card. This thread in particular has the highest readership on IV it definitely helps to make the site more popular, since you are so concerned about astrologers being rich here the only IV is benefiting not any individual, I hope you understand this very clearly. Just to make it clearer to you what I have got is immense satisfaction and great wishes from many that is the biggest thing to me and the 6 million plus views is the contribution from this thread and all its contributors, probably you can value it suitably. We are not saying that people like you should acknowledge anything but what is expected that you do not twist and mis-represent things.
Additionally we do not predict differently everyday, this is not about picking tarot cards if you understand, this is based purely on numbers and understanding around it. Some events may not strictly conform to numbers because there is a huge element of discretion involved. Recently you had posted that there is great information available on the donor forum, I do see several donors also participate on this thread, let me tell you in the internet age information is available everywhere the one who gets credit is the one who is the first to share it. This is not a breaking news channel either; the Jan VB was beyond everyone’s expectations and truly a great event. The rationale behind it is clearly that they are building a much larger pipeline for several reasons; the core predictions and underlying calculations remain unchanged. This is not dogmatic either change in interpretations is bound to happen and is a healthy thing, we learn from each other here to everyone’s benefits.
For the last 2 years the predictions have been almost spot on it started at a time when people found it hard to believe what was being said and now people are magnetically attracted here including those who keep saying that this is a waste of time. This is not entertainment, this is something that touches people’s life and I hope next time you and a few other will have better words and more sensitivity before you say something.

[john-mac]

Originally Posted by eastindia

Dear IV friend, these words of appreciation have no meaning and value unless there is a proof that you are a man of your words. May I ask you why is it you have not donated to IV so far especially when IV is working on an important legislation? Most people who predict and post everyday are non-donors. Is it because they are just about to get current and do not bother whether IV succeeds or not and 3012 passes or not. How does it help to predict each day with new predictions? The whole facade of clarity is an entertainment. This is why astrologers in India are rich people and almost every indian is blind after astrology and palm readers. So no matter I write it will not convince the so called 'bringing clarity' folks because we all belong to the same country culture. Let us agree to disagree here.

My friend proof is in the pudding and I support only those who actually do work for HR3012, donate, volunteer and go to IV meetings.

estindia, not sure on what basis you are concluding this. In past three months, I have contributed three times and completed all action item for HR 3012. Teddy helped so many people and now atleast we can congratulate him. Admin ,please feel free to delete this post if you think it is irrelevant

[adheet]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

There are more than 6K people ahead of you. EB3-I is passing through a very high density zone. It will take more than 2 years without HR 3012. Most likely you are looking at 2.25 to 2.5 years to get GC as folks with your kind of PD or earlier are not porting. With HR 3012 you will be greened within a quarter.

Teddy: Thanks so much for your prompt response. Again, your knowledge, analysis and your willingness to share information provides immense value to this forum and the members.

[bondgoli007]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The OP in this case was very politely replying to another individual who has been a very good contributor not only to this thread but to IV in general. This thread is about predictions and calculations and the primary audience here is EB2 / EB3 India retrogressed, it’s a no brainer that every one of us supports this bill to the innermost corners of our heart.
None of us have become current overnight, it has taken 4.5 years since the Jul 2007 event to have the dates move this far. We are all happy for our friends who can atleast see temporary benefits now; I hope you are gracious enough to be happy for your friends. Participation level of any individual should be best left to the individual this is not a primary school where the headmaster needs to remind every morning what the students are supposed to do every day. People know what they need to do and they will do what they like to do no matter what others may think or say, motivation requires instilling positive energy, make people see the benefits not negativity and ridicule. If you really want to motivate and encourage people do it by positive means and the first step towards that is showing some level of basic courtesy and respect. By ridiculing people you are actually not going to get any volunteers but you will definitely succeed in alienating quite a few people, I hope you and some other individuals understand the futility of what you are doing and the irreparable harm that you are causing to the organization itself. On HR 3012 this is the only thread that shows the benefits to both EB2 and EB3 India, the way to motivate people is to show them the benefit.
Additionally nobody is making millions here or elsewhere by participating in predictions and calculations; however what we get is something greater it is the satisfaction of being able to help and bring clarity to the lives of other readers of this blog who are stuck in their wait for green card. This thread in particular has the highest readership on IV it definitely helps to make the site more popular, since you are so concerned about astrologers being rich here the only IV is benefiting not any individual, I hope you understand this very clearly. Just to make it clearer to you what I have got is immense satisfaction and great wishes from many that is the biggest thing to me and the 6 million plus views is the contribution from this thread and all its contributors, probably you can value it suitably. We are not saying that people like you should acknowledge anything but what is expected that you do not twist and mis-represent things.
Additionally we do not predict differently everyday, this is not about picking tarot cards if you understand, this is based purely on numbers and understanding around it. Some events may not strictly conform to numbers because there is a huge element of discretion involved. Recently you had posted that there is great information available on the donor forum, I do see several donors also participate on this thread, let me tell you in the internet age information is available everywhere the one who gets credit is the one who is the first to share it. This is not a breaking news channel either; the Jan VB was beyond everyone’s expectations and truly a great event. The rationale behind it is clearly that they are building a much larger pipeline for several reasons; the core predictions and underlying calculations remain unchanged. This is not dogmatic either change in interpretations is bound to happen and is a healthy thing, we learn from each other here to everyone’s benefits.
For the last 2 years the predictions have been almost spot on it started at a time when people found it hard to believe what was being said and now people are magnetically attracted here including those who keep saying that this is a waste of time. This is not entertainment, this is something that touches people’s life and I hope next time you and a few other will have better words and more sensitivity before you say something.

Teddy,

Your contribution in getting EB2 and EB3 folks to visit this website and provide information which has been of immense value to a lot of us is in NO DOUBT. I am sure you have the gratitude of many if not all the members who read this particular thread not just if your number crunching but also kind and thoughtful responses to various kinds of queries. I am with you and the others who support the purpose of this thread.

As for others including shockingly Pappu (who I have great respect for) who seem to have good intentions in mind (trying to get focus and participation for HR 3012) but keep throwing Teddy and others who contribute to this thread under the bus....WHY? Has anyone of this thread spoken against or seemly refused to contribute towards HR 3012? What is the current action item on the HR 3012 effort that is not getting done because of activities on this thread? Why are posts on this thread getting deleted if they are not of any offensive nature to IV ,its members or its charter?

I was, am and will always be an IV member and contribute whenever required...so for any detractors that are likely to jump up in protest...sit down and just worry about contributing to IV without bashing others. If you cannot then you are the one whose post deserve to get deleted/slandered.

Wishing everyone Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year ahead.

[bondgoli007]

Originally Posted by eastindia

Dear IV friend, these words of appreciation have no meaning and value unless there is a proof that you are a man of your words. May I ask you why is it you have not donated to IV so far especially when IV is working on an important legislation? Most people who predict and post everyday are non-donors. Is it because they are just about to get current and do not bother whether IV succeeds or not and 3012 passes or not. How does it help to predict each day with new predictions? The whole facade of clarity is an entertainment. This is why astrologers in India are rich people and almost every indian is blind after astrology and palm readers. So no matter I write it will not convince the so called 'bringing clarity' folks because we all belong to the same country culture. Let us agree to disagree here.

My friend proof is in the pudding and I support only those who actually do work for HR3012, donate, volunteer and go to IV meetings.

Jeez, really wonder how you make it through work and life without people snickering at you and getting put off by you.....oh wait..maybe because you spew vitriol and nonsense only on forums....in real life you cannot take the backlash of your own imbecilic and half baked thoughts...

HR 3012 is the most important immigration bill for all of us here and all of us on this forum are supporters of the bill. Most have contributed and made efforts as requested by IV admins and will continue to do so. Your little rant on the other hand aims and achieves the exact opposite of what is required. So

oh yea...I am sure very few will agree to disagree with you...does that "bring clarity' to you dim witted self?

[manchala]

My brothers and sisters,

Take it easy. Leave everything behind as we are leaving 2011..

Every one of us here are to betterment of their own either through H.R3012(advocacy) or through clarity by these predictions. These calculations helped me a lot figuring out how long it will take to get my turn, hence I am participating more on advocacy.

I wish these intrinsic details on the number of cases reaches much more people so that they understand the real picture. This clarity will help advocacy in some way as some of them will participate in it. I spoke to few EB3 people and they do not even realize how EB3-I 2004 might take another 4 to 5 years without this H.R3012. It will definitely motivate those people to participate with this clarity.

Again everyone's motive here is good. Just take the good part and leave bad part...
If there is anything you see negative in this post also please ignore and pardon me. My intentions are not to hurt you or anyone here..

Jai Hind

[SVS]

Originally Posted by vinodindia

I am currently in India on a vacation and my dates are current as of Jan 1st. Does anyone know if the vaccinations listed as a requirement for Medical certificate be taken in India? Will I be able to show a letter from the doctor in India and get a certificate from the civil surgeon in U.S?

Hello,

Here is the list of vaccinations that you need:

USCIS - Vaccination Requirements

As long as you get a letter or a card (most pediatricians have cards) that shows all the vaccinations along with the dates on which you took them, you should be fine. Make sure that your Tetanus was taken within last 10 years. Indian doctors also have stamps, so have a doc sign and stamp it, then take that to your Medical Exam. Good Luck!

[ArkBird]

Originally Posted by adheet

Teddy: Thanks so much for your prompt response. Again, your knowledge, analysis and your willingness to share information provides immense value to this forum and the members.

Little Illusion Optimism from someone in the same boat....

I have a feeling that out of those 6K, many already got GC through other routes (marriage, porting, family etc.) or didn't survive almost decade long brutal journey. So actual queue size may be less than 6K and estimate of 2/2.5 years w/o HR-3012 will be worst case scenario.

Again, it is pure speculation...

[aarora1979]

Guys have any one recevied any approvals for PD after Aug 14 2007?

PD: Aug 14, 2007
RD: Nov 3, 2011
Notice Date: Nov 9, 2011
FP: Dec 7, 2011

Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Oct filers would range between 2-2.5K.
Followiing is a PWMB calculation for Oct Filers.
Jul (Assuming 50%) = (1747 + 2007 - 1000 (Exclude NIW)) * 50 / 100 = 1377
Assume 50% filed in Oct and 50% in Nov for Jul PD cases.

Jul = 688
Jun = (1296 + 288) * (50/100) = 792
May = (1043 + 546) * (30/100) = 475

This comes very close to 2000.

With the way things are moving (Approvals already starting) there are good chances that all Oct filers would be greened early next year. With QSP already running surely there will be 2K numbers to allocate towards these cases.

[dexter]

Teddy,
Do you think the upcoming visa bulletin will move EB2 India dates forward?
Thanks,
Dex

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by dexter

Teddy,
Do you think the upcoming visa bulletin will move EB2 India dates forward?
Thanks,
Dex

No rocket science buddy. Looks like EB2 might advance a bit more. Hopefully all our members will rush in after the New Year to once again rally strongly for 3012 which is our only hope.

[dexter]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

No rocket science buddy. Looks like EB2 might advance a bit more. Hopefully all our members will rush in after the New Year to once again rally strongly for 3012 which is our only hope.

My wife and I did complete all the action items listed by IV. I hope that HR3012 will come to fruition and bring equality and fairness to all employment based permanent residency seekers.