EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[mechanical13]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends just read KrishEB2 PD (19-May-2009) got a NVC fee notice, this could be a very positive indicator of forward movement.

Now someone else has mentioned that they have a March 09 priority date and they received the NVC fee notice too...

[mechanical13]

Teddy, historically, how accurate have the NVC fee receipts been an indication of forward movement? Prior to the January 2012 VB, what were the NVC fee receipt reports looking like?

CP cases are very few and broad apart from EB2 I - am I correct ?

[muniya]

My PD ic current with the January 2012 bulletin and I was planning on applying for AOS with my wife as derivative who holds her own H1B. Now, my employer most likely will lay me off this month.

However, my wife's PD will get current hopefully with the release of the February 2012 bulletin. So, if I need to file for AOS through her emplyer with myself as derivative, do I need to transfer my visa status from H1-B to H-4, since I will be laid off?

Further, my wife's passport expires in about 6 months and we are expecting to receive a renewed passport in 3-4 weeks. Will this be a problem? Is there a minimum requirement in terms of passport validity at the time of AOS filing?
Please reply at the earliest. Your advise is highly appreciated.
Thanks

[smuggymba]

Originally Posted by muniya

My PD ic current with the January 2012 bulletin and I was planning on applying for AOS with my wife as derivative who holds her own H1B. Now, my employer most likely will lay me off this month.

However, my wife's PD will get current hopefully with the release of the February 2012 bulletin. So, if I need to file for AOS through her emplyer with myself as derivative, do I need to transfer my visa status from H1-B to H-4, since I will be laid off?

Further, my wife's passport expires in about 6 months and we are expecting to receive a renewed passport in 3-4 weeks. Will this be a problem? Is there a minimum requirement in terms of passport validity at the time of AOS filing?
Please reply at the earliest. Your advise is highly appreciated.
Thanks

IMO you can be on any valid visa as a dependent and for you to stay legal after a layoff, u will need to move to H4.

If you're not laid off and remain on a valid H1 - your wife can add you as a dependent when her PD is current. You don't have to be on H4 to get GC - any valid visa should be fine.

[pillagandhi]

My 2 cents

H (h1b/h4) is a valid status and there is less chance of misinterpretation by the gods in USCIS

My lawyer advised me to keep my H1B status till 485 approval and not to use EAD as an option unless forced to do so due to unforeseen circumstances with H1B.(This seems a bit of exaggerated caution, but with USCIS - not worth the risk)

Switch to H4.


Passport -Not sure

[akshaya10001]

Source: Oh Law Firm:


EB-485 Approvals and New Receipt per Quarter of FY 2011
QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 QTR 4 Year Total
Approvals 24,040 21,944 36,128 41,193 123,305
New Receipts 19,696 16,836 19,671 22,139 78,302

EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5 Quota is 100K ( 140K -40K for EB3).
spill over( includes india & china EB2 Quota) = 100K -78K = 22K

I-140 Data
I-140 Approvals and New Receipts per Quarter of FY 2011
QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 QTR 4 Year Total
Approvals 14,226 16,594 24,757 25,704 81,281
New Receipts 20,442 21,634 20,726 18,856 81,678



EB1, EB4, EB5 & EB2 ROW Inventory increase in Oct'2011 is approx 8K, compared to Oct '2010 . this will be bad for 2012.

So EB2 I & C got 22K + 8K = 30K

if we assume filing rates continue at last year rate this year then spill over may be 22K-8k = 14K.

with 140 backlog reduced significantly in second half of last year there will be some surge in 485 filing at the beginning of the this year. ROW will consume more numbers this year

[PavanV]

Originally Posted by akshaya10001

Source: Oh Law Firm:


EB-485 Approvals and New Receipt per Quarter of FY 2011
QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 QTR 4 Year Total
Approvals 24,040 21,944 36,128 41,193 123,305
New Receipts 19,696 16,836 19,671 22,139 78,302

EB1, EB2, EB4 & EB5 Quota is 100K ( 140K -40K for EB3).
spill over( includes india & china EB2 Quota) = 100K -78K = 22K

I-140 Data
I-140 Approvals and New Receipts per Quarter of FY 2011
QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 QTR 4 Year Total
Approvals 14,226 16,594 24,757 25,704 81,281
New Receipts 20,442 21,634 20,726 18,856 81,678



EB1, EB4, EB5 & EB2 ROW Inventory increase in Oct'2011 is approx 8K, compared to Oct '2010 . this will be bad for 2012.

So EB2 I & C got 22K + 8K = 30K

if we assume filing rates continue at last year rate this year then spill over may be 22K-8k = 14K.

with 140 backlog reduced significantly in second half of last year there will be some surge in 485 filing at the beginning of the this year. ROW will consume more numbers this year

How will this affect the visa bulletin ?, will it advance or retrogress.

[manchala]

Originally Posted by PavanV

How will this affect the visa bulletin ?, will it advance or retrogress.

If this is the case and they think this is the case then good chance of retrogression. No one knows what they think and what they look at.

[akshaya10001]

EB-485 Approvals and New Receipt per Quarter of FY 2011

QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 QTR 4 Year Total
Approvals 24,040 21,944 36,128 41,193 123,305
New Receipts 19,696 16,836 19,671 22,139 78,302

Quota is 140K, above data shows approved is 123K.
USCIS announced Quotas got over by mid Sept. is uscis reports are accurate?

[nishant2200]

Akshaya, rest would be CP, that is handled by DOS.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by madhekar

So we may see forward moment in FEB Bulletin .As DEC filers will not be in System
But march is when they may stop or move back then start approving people that have filled in OCT , NOV from march as background check is completed

Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly.

[greencard.wait]

My priority date is Dec 10 2009.. God please cross this. Hope/wish it will be current and all get Greened....

Originally Posted by pappu

Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly.

[Wait4EAD]

Great News Hope that will become true

[sdeshpan]

Originally Posted by pappu

Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly.

Oh well, as long as the dates just "stop" and not retrogress, that would be a great sign!
I am assuming there are no talks about March bulletin yet, are there?

[PavanV]

Originally Posted by pappu

Dec 2009 is what we are proposing ( best case scenario) based on the new data of filings and approvals. Discussions have started so hope for the best. It might be tight for feb bulletin. But let us see. Hope for the best before dates stop progressing so rapidly.

God willing !!