EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[iyer]

Originally Posted by pappu

As per the numbers discussed for filings until January 19 , 6 month movement is possible. It is also possible to have eb2 fully current by end of the year due to several factors like slow processing in nsc, perm taking 6 months and less filings. The talks for relief to eb3 most backlogged applicatants has started with us if eb2 gets current. This not only help movement of eb3 dates but also avoid any wastage of visas. But all this depends on new filings in eb2 this year. It seems like due to bad economy not many people filed during 2008 to 2010 period. Nothing is certain as of now but based on the numbers we are seeing, it is looking good for forward movement. We may have better idea towards the end of month when more info on January filings come in.

Pappu,

Who discussed the numbers for filings with whom? Are you just reiterating what other websites such as aila posted this information much earlier than you?

Does IV meet CO regularly to discuss issues and trends? Or are you just compiling info from other websites and writing in your own words to help us? If IV is meeting regularly and has important information such as the one you just posted, why wouldn't IV be the first forum to release such information?

Thanks,

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by shouldIwait

I agree with your calculation about the demand destruction estimate from 2007. But there are certain counter arguments to consider. From the AILA post I quote "USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS". So what is estimate here. "Estimate" here has to be the no. of AOS cases they expected based upon PERM data, probably using calculations same/similar to ours (EB2 vs EB3 ratio and family factor). Although 50% does not apply to demand desctruction estimate we got from 2007. That is to say that CO's statement should not be interpreted to mean that demand destruction is double of what it was in 2007. Is that what you were thinking.

Per my calculation, to which you've agreed to in past, simply applies the EB ratio and family factor on PERM data (certified expired) and I find 83K until end of 2009, starting to count from mid-Apr 2007. Now, if I want to take into account the 12k nos. already used up I'd also need to substract it from remaining demand (post destruction no.). So an alternative calculation would look like.

Remaining demand until Dec 2009 = 50% of 83K - 12K ~ 30K
Remaining SOFAD this year without HR3012 = 10K

Then based upon reports from people that who all have got GC's in hand we can start counting. We should again end up in vicinity of Aug 2008.

- ShouldIWait

Thanks for your follow up. My thought process is that USCIS / DOS would not go into calculations like we attempt to do here. They would just go by the history like first half of 2007, now since they have not qualified the baseline of their estimate nobody knows for sure we can all have our individual interpretations. A much simpler way for USCIS could be to simply multiply the I140 count by 2 they should have all the data and should also be able to eliminate duplicate filings and identify porting cases. Now for your final resting point you should apply the 10K SOFAD from 15-JUL-2007 I believe the final resting point will be somewhere in Q1 2008.

[dkshitij]

How many applications are expected by USCIS?

Please read http://www.dhs.gov/files/publication...undtable6.shtm

USCIS Service Center Operations (SCOPS) is now moving past the 2007 filing surge cases, and based on movement of the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months. Long pending applications and petitions are being reviewed on issues, such as: the job offer, changes in derivative beneficiaries, up-to-date biometrics, and needed additional evidence. SCOPS is working with the USCIS Lockboxes to ensure that they have the capacity to accept large numbers of filings, coordinating with the Application Support Centers to ensure that they are ready for increased numbers of biometric appointments, and working with the service centers to ensure that ancillary applications for advance parole and employment authorization are adjudicated in a timely manner. SCOPS also will monitor the number of incoming receipts to better coordinate with DOS.

Looks like the figure is 14K-18K and USCIS has put in some effort in co-ordination. So I will take back my words saying that USCIS may be playing a game and does not know how many applications there are....

18K is a real low number to be honest....and they haven't got that many yet? I find it hard to believe....just thinking out loud.

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by iyer

Pappu,

Who discussed the numbers for filings with whom? Are you just reiterating what other websites such as aila posted this information much earlier than you?

Does IV meet CO regularly to discuss issues and trends? Or are you just compiling info from other websites and writing in your own words to help us? If IV is meeting regularly and has important information such as the one you just posted, why wouldn't IV be the first forum to release such information?

Thanks,

iyer anna... you are really funny you should clearly know that pappu wouldn't reply to your post right? why should he? I would not if I were in his shoes? we have a bill (3012) on the senate calender. Do you think other folks like AILA did that too?? Now visa bulletin movments are such a complicated issue and without doubt the CO would be looking at all evidence to keep his task at the best and that is to not be blamed for visa wastage given the backlogs. If he were to just use the internal data available to him then there would be more wastage. Informal and/or some sort of collegial discussions is what usually happens in such cases. They seek out folks who can provide some insight into the trends of filings or future filings and IV potentially is one of them. pappu if you read this pls dont hatch on to this and respond because it doesn't deserve one at this point. Later maybe

[h1techSlave]

Originally Posted by pappu

The talks for relief to eb3 most backlogged applicatants has started with us if eb2 gets current.

It's about time!

[eastindia]

Originally Posted by iyer

Does IV meet CO regularly to discuss issues and trends?
Thanks,

You have to have donor access to get more information. Or come to IV meetings. In one meeting last year an official from USCIS also came to speak to IV members. You will never hear this on forums. Casual surfers and trackers fall prey to funny theories and entertaining posts if they are serious about supporting IV. Much more inside updates gets posted on donor forums that is not available on any immigration website. I have been contributing for a long time and seeing the regular updates so know. All other surfers on websites can scan for updates or figure out their predictions that change everyday. Serious folks have been contributors to IV for a many months and years and know more what IV does.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by dkshitij

How many applications are expected by USCIS?

Please read http://www.dhs.gov/files/publication...undtable6.shtm



Looks like the figure is 14K-18K and USCIS has put in some effort in co-ordination. So I will take back my words saying that USCIS may be playing a game and does not know how many applications there are....

18K is a real low number to be honest....and they haven't got that many yet? I find it hard to believe....just thinking out loud.

Thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by eastindia

You have to have donor access to get more information. Or come to IV meetings. In one meeting last year an official from USCIS also came to speak to IV members. You will never hear this on forums. Casual surfers and trackers fall prey to funny theories and entertaining posts if they are serious about supporting IV. Much more inside updates gets posted on donor forums that is not available on any immigration website. I have been contributing for a long time and seeing the regular updates so know. All other surfers on websites can scan for updates or figure out their predictions that change everyday. Serious folks have been contributors to IV for a many months and years and know more what IV does.

It’s a fact in the internet age that the first one who shares gets the credit; one of the things therefore that is required is even greater information sharing everyone understands the focus on HR 3012 that is the real solution against this injustice happening for years. The donor forum it is not a place to share inside scoops and breaking news so please refrain for marketing it that way. Sharing information with everyone is a win – win for everyone (IV & all visitors).

[iyer]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

It’s a fact in the internet age that the first one who shares gets the credit; one of the things therefore that is required is even greater information sharing everyone understands the focus on HR 3012 that is the real solution against this injustice happening for years. The donor forum it is not a place to share inside scoops and breaking news so please refrain for marketing it that way. Sharing information with everyone is a win – win for everyone (IV & all visitors).

Teddy, thanks for jumping in. I had an honest question and a honest response would have put a full stop to this conversation. Instead Thomachan, East India etc. are beating around the bush and that makes me wonder there is more than it meets the eye. In a public domain, straightforward answers are more welcome as that would help win more credibility.

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.

Hi Teddy,

Just looked up our GC status and its approved.
Our PD date is 10/30/2007

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

Hi Teddy,

Just looked up our GC status and its approved.
Our PD date is 10/30/2007

Congratulations and thanks for sharing this great news with all of us. Enjoy green life and do be around on this forum.

[StarSun]

Originally Posted by iyer

Teddy, thanks for jumping in. I had an honest question and a honest response would have put a full stop to this conversation. Instead Thomachan, East India etc. are beating around the bush and that makes me wonder there is more than it meets the eye. In a public domain, straightforward answers are more welcome as that would help win more credibility.

Iyer, Teddy,
Yes, there is more information shared with the donor forum members.

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Congratulations and thanks for sharing this great news with all of us. Enjoy green life and do be around on this forum.

thank you Teddy. I am sure Nov filer's are seeing approvals and our best wishes to everyone.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by belmontboy

thank you Teddy. I am sure Nov filer's are seeing approvals and our best wishes to everyone.

What is your service center, Iam guessing its NSC, did you get any email / text notifications. Time to update your signature once again with the I485 approval.

[belmontboy]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

What is your service center, Iam guessing its NSC, did you get any email / text notifications. Time to update your signature once again with the I485 approval.

yeah, i got email and text notification for both primary and derivative.
mine was filed at NSC.