EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[sandy_anand]

Originally Posted by dkin007

Congrats....

One doubt....your FP date is 02/15/2012 and EAD approved date 01/30/2012.

is it correct FP date

Yes, my FP appointment date is 2/15/2012 - two weeks from today.
FP has nothing to do with EAD/AP approval. Lot of people from NSC have gotten their EAD without getting their FP done. But this is the first time I've heard this happen at TSC.

[goel_ar]

I have fingerprints on my EAD card

[sandy_anand]

Originally Posted by goel_ar

I have fingerprints on my EAD card

Yes, if you have your FP done before EAD was approved.

[injrav]

Sorry to say that except PD - priority date,, I am not able to understand others
what is
MD
RD--Can I assume it as received date? if yes ,, then is it 485 application?
ND- is it name checked date?
not seeing any info related to FP

When you say it approved on 01/30 means,, is it approval for EAD? or are you going to get PHYSICAL GREEN CARD?

Originally Posted by sandy_anand

Guys, just wanted to update my status

PD: 03/27/2008
MD: 01/04/2012
RD: 01/06/2012
ND: 01/10/2012
Service center: TSC (NJ Resident)
EB2 I
FP:02/15/2012
EAD/AP: 01/30/2012 - Just saw online status that it was approved on 1/30/2012. That was fast even for TSC!!!

[manja]

Originally Posted by injrav

Sorry to say that except PD - priority date,, I am not able to understand others
what is
MD
RD--Can I assume it as received date? if yes ,, then is it 485 application?
ND- is it name checked date?
not seeing any info related to FP

When you say it approved on 01/30 means,, is it approval for EAD? or are you going to get PHYSICAL GREEN CARD?

MD - Mailed date
RD - Received date
ND - Notice Date
FP - Finger prints

[shouldIwait]

Responses in-line below

Originally Posted by injrav

Sorry to say that except PD - priority date,, I am not able to understand others
what is
MD --> I-485 application Mailed Date
RD--Can I assume it as received date? if yes ,, then is it 485 application? --> YES for both questions

ND- is it name checked date? --> I-485 Notice Date, they day they send you the receipt

not seeing any info related to FP --> Finger Printing notice date or Finger Printing appointment date depending on the context

When you say it approved on 01/30 means,, is it approval for EAD? or are you going to get PHYSICAL GREEN CARD? --> It's approval for EAD. Look at his PD, it cannot be GC

[sep_2011_PD]

when is the march bulletin going to be announced

[smuggymba]

Originally Posted by sep_2011_PD

when is the march bulletin going to be announced

Feb 10 theek 4 baje Friday ko.

[shouldIwait]

Originally Posted by smuggymba

Feb 10 theek 4 baje Friday ko.

It might this Friday too on Feb 3rd....

[TeddyKoochu]

The new inventory is out. Friends I tried to test out the ratios for the Nov filers. The inventory figures for the later months are extremely low. If the figures are really true its great news for everyone. Another possibility is that this is a work in progress document and some filings have not met the criteria to be on the inventory or there is a manual step to put a case in the inventory that has not been performed. Iam not sure if the approvals that we have seen
EB2 I – 974 + 936 + 1120 + 1361 = 4391
EB2 C – 395 + 238 + 348 + 306 = 1287
Grand Total = 5887
Using OR of 1 with 2200 per month for 3.5 months = 7700
Using OR of .8 = 6160.
I believe that the OR range is really coming close to 0.75 for Nov filers. I will research the inventory later in the day and over the weekend. Overall the inventory is far lower than expected especially for 2008 more than 2007 and points to a lot of demand destruction. At this rate next VB will surely have forward movement 6 months seems to be a minimum even a year is possible.

[nat23]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The new inventory is out. Friends I tried to test out the ratios for the Nov filers. The inventory figures for the later months are extremely low. If the figures are really true its great news for everyone. Another possibility is that this is a work in progress document and some filings have not met the criteria to be on the inventory or there is a manual step to put a case in the inventory that has not been performed. Iam not sure if the approvals that we have seen
EB2 I – 974 + 936 + 1120 + 1361 = 4391
EB2 C – 395 + 238 + 348 + 306 = 1287
Grand Total = 5887
Using OR of 1 with 2200 per month for 3.5 months = 7700
Using OR of .8 = 6160.
I believe that the OR range is really coming close to 0.75 for Nov filers. I will research the inventory later in the day and over the weekend. Overall the inventory is far lower than expected especially for 2008 more than 2007 and points to a lot of demand destruction. At this rate next VB will surely have forward movement 6 months seems to be a minimum even a year is possible.

Teddy

In your opinion what would be GC issuance cut off range or FY2012 ?

Thanks
Nat

[skpanda]

My personal opinion: If CO moves PD in March 2012 based on the inventory, he should move it by 1 year atleast.

Reason: a. EB2 as a whole has 30.5K applications.
b. The year 2008 from EB2IC added only 5K applications.
c. Granted that Inventory does not have 2009 data.
d. But looking at 2008 if we assume 2009 will also add 5K applications.
e. Total EB2 will be little less than 36K.
f. Total EB2 that will be documentarily qualified will be 31K (little less than 15% I485 rejection rate). So total EB2 Demand as of Feb 2012 VB 32K.
g. EB2 as whole usually gets 40K quota + 10K from EB1+EB5+EB4. Even if we assume 5K from EB1+EB5+EB5. Number of applications needed for FY 2012 for EB2 is 45K.
h. So USCIS still needs 14K documentarily qualified applications for FY2012 for EB2 as a whole. That turns out to be about 16.5K I485s.
i. Therefore to get 16.5K I485 applications, CO has to move the dates by atleast 1 year (infact they have to make it current if we go by the 2008 I485 count of 5K)

NOTE: I know that there are many people with PD in 2008 that have not applied and hence we see low numbers but Mr. CO does not have a way to see that.


Feel free to tear my logic apart.

[mdresh]

Here is an interesting post by another user on another IV thread.
Pardon me if it is a repost

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ictions-3.html (Eb2 march 2012 visa bulliten predictions)

This is from AILA's Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (posted Jan 23, 2012)

On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos

[shouldIwait]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The new inventory is out. Friends I tried to test out the ratios for the Nov filers. The inventory figures for the later months are extremely low. If the figures are really true its great news for everyone. Another possibility is that this is a work in progress document and some filings have not met the criteria to be on the inventory or there is a manual step to put a case in the inventory that has not been performed. Iam not sure if the approvals that we have seen
EB2 I – 974 + 936 + 1120 + 1361 = 4391
EB2 C – 395 + 238 + 348 + 306 = 1287
Grand Total = 5887
Using OR of 1 with 2200 per month for 3.5 months = 7700
Using OR of .8 = 6160.
I believe that the OR range is really coming close to 0.75 for Nov filers. I will research the inventory later in the day and over the weekend. Overall the inventory is far lower than expected especially for 2008 more than 2007 and points to a lot of demand destruction. At this rate next VB will surely have forward movement 6 months seems to be a minimum even a year is possible.

Hi Teddy,

I have been waiting for this data to be released for long now. But as you have suspected, at first look the pattern appears to be work-in-progress, especially for nos. beyond Mar 2008. The decline in nos. is consistent with visa bulletin movements. Nov-Feb 2008 it is averaging around 700, for EB2-India. That is when effect of Fiasco PWMB started wearing off. From mid-March 2008 there is sharp drop, which is likely to mean that Jan bulletin filings are not completely in the system yet. They too might go upto ~700 per month. Which too is extremely low and points towards 75-80% demand destruction. A staggering figure indeed.

[h1techSlave]

Any speculation of why there is so much demand destruction? Is USCIS rejecting 485s left and right? Or are people going back to their home countries?

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The new inventory is out. Friends I tried to test out the ratios for the Nov filers. The inventory figures for the later months are extremely low. If the figures are really true its great news for everyone. Another possibility is that this is a work in progress document and some filings have not met the criteria to be on the inventory or there is a manual step to put a case in the inventory that has not been performed. Iam not sure if the approvals that we have seen
EB2 I – 974 + 936 + 1120 + 1361 = 4391
EB2 C – 395 + 238 + 348 + 306 = 1287
Grand Total = 5887
Using OR of 1 with 2200 per month for 3.5 months = 7700
Using OR of .8 = 6160.
I believe that the OR range is really coming close to 0.75 for Nov filers. I will research the inventory later in the day and over the weekend. Overall the inventory is far lower than expected especially for 2008 more than 2007 and points to a lot of demand destruction. At this rate next VB will surely have forward movement 6 months seems to be a minimum even a year is possible.