EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[krishmunn]

Originally Posted by krishmunn

My RD is Jan 9. Online status shows EAD approved on Feb 2 and AP on 1/26. did not recieve approval notice or Card yet. Attirney says to wait for some more time.

for my family, it was approved on 2/18 and got a mail today USPS has picked up card for delivery.

Received EAD + AP Combo for my spouse and child . Still waiting for my one.

Just one point ---- we did not receive any Approval notice (797 or something similar to that) but just the cards. Is that good enough ?

[vinodindia]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Is this a new file? I thought Teddy had everything upto Dec 2011 while making the predictions (approvals potentially to Jan 2009).

May be an old file and probably I may have missed the point that Teddy considered this as well as part of his calculation.

[Dev74]

Need to know if anyone has gone through similar case?

My PD is Sept 2007 EB2.
In Sept 2001 my co filed I140 Successor in Interest application as there was a re-org and my business division became independent company.
USCIS had declined to accept it as premium processing as the original labor certification is contained in the original I-140 file which was approved in 2008

Since then I filed for 485 in Nov 2011 and got my EAD and AP in Jan 2012.
Since my I140 is still pending my 485 will not be touched.

Can I still go for I140 PP? anybody having to go through similar situation..having any advise?

Appreciate your feedback.

[TeddyKoochu]

@vinodindia & @Thomachan72
Working just at the receipts level is a little hard in the sense qualifying them over different categories one would need a lot of assumptions. The prediction of 01-JAN-2009 is based on CO's announcement that only 9% numbers are being used every month. Its not even 5 months and we can see a very good number of Nov filers approved though less than 50% and Dec filers as well. If the current pace of approvals keeps up then this is possible.
As opposed to this approvals for EB2 ROW and EB1 are also coming at a brisk pace, however the only way EB2 I/C approvals can come by is based on quarterly spillover. I think the spillover will be closer to 35K considering that 18K has already happened. Demand destruction is there but that is not that significant as the higher spillover itself. Most importantly let’s see the direction in the next bulletin.

[vinodindia]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

@vinodindia & @Thomachan72
Working just at the receipts level is a little hard in the sense qualifying them over different categories one would need a lot of assumptions. The prediction of 01-JAN-2009 is based on CO's announcement that only 9% numbers are being used every month. Its not even 5 months and we can see a very good number of Nov filers approved though less than 50% and Dec filers as well. If the current pace of approvals keeps up then this is possible.
As opposed to this approvals for EB2 ROW and EB1 are also coming at a brisk pace, however the only way EB2 I/C approvals can come by is based on quarterly spillover. I think the spillover will be closer to 35K considering that 18K has already happened. Demand destruction is there but that is not that significant as the higher spillover itself. Most importantly let’s see the direction in the next bulletin.

Sounds good. Thanks Teddy!

[nagio]

Thanks to every one in the forum. We got our green cards today. It has been long journey, may be not so long as EB3 friends. I wish good luck to every one who is waiting for their green cards. May your turn come sooner!! Here are my details.

EB-2
NSC
PD: 13-Dec, 2007
RD: 05-Dec, 2011
ND: 06-Dec, 2011
Receipt Notice: 12-Dec, 2011
FP Notice: 09-Jan, 2012
FP Date: 23-Jan, 2012
EAD/AP(Approval Email notification ): 21-Jan, 2012
EAD/AP - 27-Jan, 2012
GC (Approval Email notification) 22-Feb, 2012
GC (Received in mail) 27 -Feb, 2012

[rajkharatmol]

Congrats to you and Family, Thanks for detail information.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by nagio

Thanks to every one in the forum. We got our green cards today. It has been long journey, may be not so long as EB3 friends. I wish good luck to every one who is waiting for their green cards. May your turn come sooner!! Here are my details.

EB-2
NSC
PD: 13-Dec, 2007
RD: 05-Dec, 2011
ND: 06-Dec, 2011
Receipt Notice: 12-Dec, 2011
FP Notice: 09-Jan, 2012
FP Date: 23-Jan, 2012
EAD/AP(Approval Email notification ): 21-Jan, 2012
EAD/AP - 27-Jan, 2012
GC (Approval Email notification) 22-Feb, 2012
GC (Received in mail) 27 -Feb, 2012

Many Congratulations to you and your family.

[abybaby81]

Just saw a January filer getting his 485 approved on the other site. Interesting...

[vinodindia]

Originally Posted by abybaby81

Just saw a January filer getting his 485 approved on the other site. Interesting...

And the best part is his PD was 9/4/2008. May be a sign for next bulletin that if at all retrogression happens, it will be minimal. Hopefully there is no retrogression and there is advancement that would help everyone waiting!

[anfu02]

Teddy,
I have been following this thread for a while and many thanks for your analysis. I already have (EB2) I140 approved through my previous employer with Jun 09 priority date and switched jobs last August. My current employer has just filed for PWD and I am at least five months away before my Labor certification is approved. With retrogression expected to happen this summer, what is your estimate of PD returning back to June 2009 time frame? is it sep 2012 or 2013?

Thanks again.

[mzc123]

Originally Posted by vinodindia

And the best part is his PD was 9/4/2008. May be a sign for next bulletin that if at all retrogression happens, it will be minimal. Hopefully there is no retrogression and there is advancement that would help everyone waiting!

I’m a little skeptical on that one (I could be completely wrong and if true, good for him/her). But the other one is more authentic. That person didn't file EAD/AP and maybe that is the key to faster GC ... dang it, I should have done that too (lol) .... but wait I'm stuck with TSC (Tortoise Service Center)*

*stole it from other site; found it hilarious

[np5337]

Originally Posted by nagio

Thanks to every one in the forum. We got our green cards today. It has been long journey, may be not so long as EB3 friends. I wish good luck to every one who is waiting for their green cards. May your turn come sooner!! Here are my details.

EB-2
NSC
PD: 13-Dec, 2007
RD: 05-Dec, 2011
ND: 06-Dec, 2011
Receipt Notice: 12-Dec, 2011
FP Notice: 09-Jan, 2012
FP Date: 23-Jan, 2012
EAD/AP(Approval Email notification ): 21-Jan, 2012
EAD/AP - 27-Jan, 2012
GC (Approval Email notification) 22-Feb, 2012
GC (Received in mail) 27 -Feb, 2012

Many many congrates to you and your family. Let's pray for all other people who are waiting so they can enjoy and feel relaxation soon...

[vinodindia]

Originally Posted by mzc123

I’m a little skeptical on that one (I could be completely wrong and if true, good for him/her). But the other one is more authentic. That person didn't file EAD/AP and maybe that is the key to faster GC ... dang it, I should have done that too (lol) .... but wait I'm stuck with TSC (Tortoise Service Center)*

*stole it from other site; found it hilarious

One filer from TSC also got his 485 approval today. Guess what his PD is 12/9/2008. Good for him and This is awesome news for Jan filers. But overall I guess with USCIS, PD has no meaning when it comes to approval priority!

[designserve]

Great news for Jan Filers...Hope my number makes it next month...My FP is on 7th March

Originally Posted by vinodindia

And the best part is his PD was 9/4/2008. May be a sign for next bulletin that if at all retrogression happens, it will be minimal. Hopefully there is no retrogression and there is advancement that would help everyone waiting!