EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[pknkak]

Originally Posted by bibliophile2020

Boohoo! I missed mine by a week. When will EB2 move again.

Dont worry, ur turn will also come.

[vva]

For all the statistical guru's on IV.org - So far i dint see any Jan12 filing AOS approval's yet - so here's to update ..

Hard to believe this speed for me.. Now waiting for the "Card" to really ensure..

Just GOT SMS's & EMAIL's : 10-Mar-12
Application Type: I485 : AOS... : Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

Additional info:

Category : EB2 / Charge'blity - I
Priority Date : Oct-08

Current in : Jan12
485 filed : @ TSC
485 ND : 04-Jan-12
FP ND : 13-Jan-12
FP Done : 10-Feb-12
EAD/AP ComboCard Received : 16-Feb-12
I485 Card/Document production SMS's & EMAIL's : 10-Mar-12
Now waiting for the wait to be over.. Receiving the cards and seeing & confirming the notice of approval.

So far IV efforts.
Have Spread at my work place & everyone i know about HR3012 Efforts
Contributed
100$ Oct/11 towards IV & HR3012 Push
100$ Dec/11 towards IV & HR3012 Push

Will continue my part of spreading the word as many of my friends/colleges are still stuck in EB3.. and wish to see all thru !!

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by h1techSlave

The latest demand data clearly shows that there is huge demand destruction. It is not unreasonable for USCIS to make EB2I current in this month or the next.

So what is going to happen to EB3 I? Many are porting, there is huge demand destruction in EB3 world as well. Do you think USCIS will be motivated to move the cut off date for EB3I as well.

Sure, nobody expect EB3I dates to fly like it did for EB2I. But can we expect at least a few months of movement in the coming months?

The earlier thought was that anyone with EB3I PD of 2003 middle and beyond MUST port to EB2. Does that hold true in the changed circumstances?

The demand data is more of a technicality. It just shows the unsatisfied demand for which cap numbers cannot be allocated. USCIS is moving at a brisk pace but the supply is good thanks to the really low usage from EB2 ROW especially. The higher spillover itself in the range of 35-40K is actually going to be a bigger than the demand destruction. Demand destruction is definitely there as life without EAD / AP has been extremely hard for all post Jul 2007 folks.

My own thought has always been that the porting process takes a year so if you are more than a year away from GC its worth taking a shot. As of now anyone beyond 2002 is definitely a year away. Most EB3-I folks from 2002 are holding really tight to their seats.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

If this is indeed true and it seems that way since EB3 has gone to sept 02, I guess it might be an indication for the following;
1) Higher eb3-eb2 porting?
2) sufficient applications in hand already and dont need to move the PD forward soon?
3) Atleast the possibility that retrogression is unlikely?

EB3-I moved by just a week it means the people in that range are holding really tight to their seats. Now overall EB3 inventory has not reduced much so means porting is still within 3K. Most people porting are the ones with later PD's mostly 2004 onwards or beyond 2007 who did not file 485 and cannot be accounted for. Retrogression will happen when USCIS approval rates pick up further for now it looks like demand and supply match.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by snathan

Guys......


I am greeeeeened today.

Originally Posted by vva

For all the statistical guru's on IV.org - So far i dint see any Jan12 filing AOS approval's yet - so here's to update ..

Hard to believe this speed for me.. Now waiting for the "Card" to really ensure..

Just GOT SMS's & EMAIL's : 10-Mar-12
Application Type: I485 : AOS... : Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

Additional info:

Category : EB2 / Charge'blity - I
Priority Date : Oct-08

Current in : Jan12
485 filed : @ TSC
485 ND : 04-Jan-12
FP ND : 13-Jan-12
FP Done : 10-Feb-12
EAD/AP ComboCard Received : 16-Feb-12
I485 Card/Document production SMS's & EMAIL's : 10-Mar-12
Now waiting for the wait to be over.. Receiving the cards and seeing & confirming the notice of approval.

So far IV efforts.
Have Spread at my work place & everyone i know about HR3012 Efforts
Contributed
100$ Oct/11 towards IV & HR3012 Push
100$ Dec/11 towards IV & HR3012 Push

Will continue my part of spreading the word as many of my friends/colleges are still stuck in EB3.. and wish to see all thru !!

Many congratulations to you and your families. Enjoy green life.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by desigun

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 Jan-09 Jan-10 May-10 May-10
2011 May-06 May-06 May-06 May-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Apr-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08
2010 Jan-05 Jan-05 Feb-05 Feb-05 Feb-05 Feb-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 May-06 May-06 May-06 May-06
2009 Jul-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Feb-04 Feb-05 Jan-00 Jan-00 Oct-03 Jan-05 Jan-05 Jan-05 Jan-05
2008 Jan-00 U U Dec-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Apr-04 Jun-06 Aug-06 Apr-03 Jun-03 Jun-03
2007 Jan-03 Jan-03 Jan-03 Jan-03 Jan-03 Apr-04 C U Apr-04 Apr-04 Apr-04 Jan-02
2006 Jan-01 Aug-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jan-03 Jan-03 U U Jun-02 Jan-03 Jan-03
2005 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA C C Nov-99 Nov-99 Jul-00

Just like many of us here, i spent some time looking at the PD movement, since the last time there was a retrogression for EB2I. That was in Jun'2009 bulletin.

It appears that May'2010 will be static for at least few months based on the historical data. Most of this is not news to all the experts here.. but i just thought i will share this information. Experts, feel free to add your comments or inferences.
Thanks,

Very nicely presented. We are all ordinary people here with the sole objective of helping each other with simple things.

[np5337]

Visa Bulletin For April 2012


Good luck to all for next VB....

[immigrationvoice12]

Originally Posted by immigrationvoice12

Yes
PD May 23, 07
RD 10/21
EAD / AP 1/31
RFE Jan 31, 12
RFE Response received by uscis feb 13, 12

Waiting hopefully soon. Read in a thread yesterday, that 1 week after RFE response, but i am in my third week. Waiting for that magical SMS / email.
May God bless all the folks in their arduous wait.
All the best to ALL and especially to Teddy.

Folks
When would it be time to start contacting lawmakers etc. Should i wait the 60 days mentioned in the RFE response received message? What are your experiences, While i patiently wait, this thread and forum has been great help. Keep up the good work IV. TIA

[vkonam]

Hi All,
This is just to share my observation but nothing else.
My PD - Dec 07
485 Filed - 22 Dec 12 (TSC)
FP Attended - 23 Jan 12
EAD/AP received - 15 Feb 12

My 485 receipt number does not even show up in the case status application online. USCIS says, there is a bug in the system.

I see people who applied after me and with PD dates months after me getting Cards. Wish, my application moves and be greened sooner.

Regards,
Vijay.

[mzc123]

Originally Posted by vkonam

Hi All,
This is just to share my observation but nothing else.
My PD - Dec 07
485 Filed - 22 Dec 12 (TSC)
FP Attended - 23 Jan 12
EAD/AP received - 15 Feb 12

My 485 receipt number does not even show up in the case status application online. USCIS says, there is a bug in the system.

I see people who applied after me and with PD dates months after me getting Cards. Wish, my application moves and be greened sooner.

Regards,
Vijay.

welcome to the world of USCIS! ... Glad you finally figured out that they are not processing by PD

I am with Jun 07 PD and still waiting patiently (Day 136 since AOS filed and 1700+ days since labor filed).... and have seen Dec filers and now Jan filers getting greened (with much later 2008 PD).... nothing against them or personal but I can understand your frustration. The only positive I take from this movement/approval is that atleast they are working on the files and fellow people are greened

Dont even have a RFE yet (not that I'm rooting for one but RFE atleast suggests that somebody is looking into your case).... oh well... same old saga with USCIS, no surprises there

[SVS]

Originally Posted by vkonam

Hi All,
This is just to share my observation but nothing else.
My PD - Dec 07
485 Filed - 22 Dec 12 (TSC)
FP Attended - 23 Jan 12
EAD/AP received - 15 Feb 12

My 485 receipt number does not even show up in the case status application online. USCIS says, there is a bug in the system.

I see people who applied after me and with PD dates months after me getting Cards. Wish, my application moves and be greened sooner.

Regards,
Vijay.

Hi vkonam,

I just wanted to share my information as well since our dates are very close to each other:

1. PD - Dec 07
2. I-485 - 20 Dec 2011 (TSC)
3. FP - 26 Jan 2012
4. EAD/AP - 09 Feb 2012

Eagerly awaiting 485 approval notice & physical card. Will update as soon as I hear something and request you to do the same. Thanks!

Good luck!
SVS

[GC_Green9]

My PD is Dec, 2002. Based on inventory, any possibility of getting GC this year?

Any one close to my dates?

Thanks

[bang]

Still waiting while the bulletin moves week by week ..... every Month by Month. I am just hoping June / July may get us there for 2002, but not completely positive yet. I think for sure in October we may get there.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by GC_Green9

My PD is Dec, 2002. Based on inventory, any possibility of getting GC this year?

Any one close to my dates?

Thanks

Originally Posted by bang

Still waiting while the bulletin moves week by week ..... every Month by Month. I am just hoping June / July may get us there for 2002, but not completely positive yet. I think for sure in October we may get there.

Guys by Sep 2012 the dates might just reach somewhere in Nov 2012, EB3-I is moving far slower than last year simply because none of the 2002 filers are porting. Now Dec is pretty huge so the dates will simply crawl when they hit Dec, i would envisage for Dec to be cleared will take entire Q1 of FY 2013 i.e. by Dec 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by immigrationvoice12

Folks
When would it be time to start contacting lawmakers etc. Should i wait the 60 days mentioned in the RFE response received message? What are your experiences, While i patiently wait, this thread and forum has been great help. Keep up the good work IV. TIA

TSC is taking 3 weeks for RFE response cases now because of the huge volume. Considering that you are kind of due. Reading a thread on another site where people share the officer # my officer is a working on cases a week before so looks like another week for me.