EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[satyasrd]

Hi,

Could anyone please predict when the dates will cross May 2010 again?

Thank you!

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

EB2 ROW usage in the same period this year is higher than last year. On the Other site approvals from Oct - Apr this year to last year for primary applicants is 484 - 423. This month we have seen significant number of ROW approvals. Eb1 has already been confirmed to be higher in AILA updates by CO himself, EB1 usage on that site is in fact several times higher there are indications of EB1C in particular racing. So with all this SOFAD this year would be 34 - 12(EB1 for last year) = 22K. By all accounts 22K has already been allocated to I/C that is why we have this news of numbers used up for I/C.

If we can get atleast a thousand more from spillover that would be great way to end this year. If not atleast we can hope of having a better start in October with hopefully many of us being preadjudicated by then. Let us also hope that HR3012 miraculously is brought to vote amidst all this negativity and passes.

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by satyasrd

Hi,

Could anyone please predict when the dates will cross May 2010 again?

Thank you!

Definitely not before October 12. Early 2013 is likely when we might see it go back to May 2010. Again this is just a thought not backed by any numbers. However, if we see approvals (due to any remaining unused ROW/EB1 quota) towards the end of this year then there is a possibility of PD jumping to 2010 or later even before December. Keep fingers crossed!!!!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Definitely not before October 12. Early 2013 is likely when we might see it go back to May 2010. Again this is just a thought not backed by any numbers. However, if we see approvals (due to any remaining unused ROW/EB1 quota) towards the end of this year then there is a possibility of PD jumping to 2010 or later even before December. Keep fingers crossed!!!!!

As of now there will be ~ 35K EB2 I/C cases unapproved prior to May 2010, this is practically 1 year inventory. Agree with Thomachan72 that any further movement is possible only in Oct 2013. Only hopes for an earlier movement could be that we see some approvals for EB2 I/C before October chances are less or HR 3012 passes which in theory can pass any time before Jan 2013 if none of these 2 occurrences happen it is definitely Oct 2013 for the next movement.

[pappu]

Guys please discuss coder vs tester issues, Eb1c issues and any other issue that does not match the subject of the thread on your own separate thread. Please help maintain the focus of the thread and try not to molest the thread every now and then. Teddy is doing a good job and let us not stray the discussion.Thank you for understanding.

[velagale]

[quote=krishmunn;3378231]

Originally Posted by velagale

I have spent years in this industry -- gone through all --- developer , System Analyst and now Project Manager. That's why I said in beginning - you are yet to mature in the Industry.
Happy coding . And BTW, do try to come up with a perfect UI testing tool (use your "creativity") . That will help the industry.

Hahaa... good. now i get it and i bet you were an awesome software engineer !.
Leave alone maturity, your logical reasoning has so many loop holes, it takes only you not to see them and your reading comprehension is unbelievable ! I participated in these online debates with some worthy opponents !, folks who had really strong views, yet were very "logical". You are the bottom i have seen after a long time.
Now happy MS Word-ing , MS-Excel-ing and i will go ahead with architecting my stuff

[krishmunn]

[quote=velagale;3378559]

Originally Posted by krishmunn

Hahaa... good. now i get it and i bet you were an awesome software engineer !.
Leave alone maturity, your logical reasoning has so many loop holes, it takes only you not to see them and your reading comprehension is unbelievable ! I participated in these online debates with some worthy opponents !, folks who had really strong views, yet were very "logical". You are the bottom i have seen after a long time.
Now happy MS Word-ing , MS-Excel-ing and i will go ahead with architecting my stuff

Ah! Trying to save face . I expected a little more "creativity" in your attempt . Happy coding dear 345678th Java developer.

[cvsravan]

Teddy,

Is the 35k number a assumption? Isnt it possible that the number can anywhere above or below that number and we will get a clearer number once the demand data reflects the number of applications waiting for a visa number? Also the last visa bulletin said that they will push the cut off dates to May 2010 as soon as possible, so would not Oct 2013 be a long way away when they are saying that they will try to get to May 2010 as soon as possible?

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by cvsravan

Teddy,

Is the 35k number a assumption? Isnt it possible that the number can anywhere above or below that number and we will get a clearer number once the demand data reflects the number of applications waiting for a visa number? Also the last visa bulletin said that they will push the cut off dates to May 2010 as soon as possible, so would not Oct 2013 be a long way away when they are saying that they will try to get to May 2010 as soon as possible?

ravan yes there is still a glimmer of hope and the demand data might give us some more clarity but as teddy pointed out in his previous post they have already allocated more than what they were permitted to under the law, towards I/C EB2. This they did assuming that the demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW will be similar to that of previous year and also possibly lower. However, apparently they underestimated this demand and they are now faced with many more ROW and EB1 to clear. Imagine the panic/guilt mode they would be in if they had to say no to a ROW/EB1 applicant because they already alloted the visa number to EB2 I/C asuming there wont be a ROW/EB1 applicant!!

If the expected demand data was any different they wouldn't have set teh cut off at Aug 07. Now unless their calculation is wrong and we end up getting some spill over from the ROW/EB1 prior to October 1, there is no way they can move the dates forward. Now assuming there is a spillover of 1 to 2K, even then they cant move till May 10 since there would be large volume (>2K for sure) already preadjudicated cases to clear by then. Anyway October is only 5 months away!

[geevikram]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

As of now there will be ~ 35K EB2 I/C cases unapproved prior to May 2010, this is practically 1 year inventory. Agree with Thomachan72 that any further movement is possible only in Oct 2013. Only hopes for an earlier movement could be that we see some approvals for EB2 I/C before October chances are less or HR 3012 passes which in theory can pass any time before Jan 2013 if none of these 2 occurrences happen it is definitely Oct 2013 for the next movement.

Teddy, when you say forward movement, you mean movement beyond May 2010, right?

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by geevikram

Teddy, when you say forward movement, you mean movement beyond May 2010, right?

Yes I think that is what he meant. Dates have to move beyond Aug 07 in October 12 or potentially even a bit earlier (if there is some leftovers), otherwise there will be visa wastage. However, to move beyond May 10 it will likely be October 13 unless HR3012 happens!! For now they have the inventory including all the 08 and 09 folks in addition to the few 07 straglers, which is pretty huge. Your date is July 08 and most likely your case has already been taken up. Mine was and have received some rfes which I am working on now. So looks like they are working to get folks preadjudicated and ready.

[UKannan]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Yes I think that is what he meant. Dates have to move beyond Aug 07 in October 12 or potentially even a bit earlier (if there is some leftovers), otherwise there will be visa wastage. However, to move beyond May 10 it will likely be October 13 unless HR3012 happens!! For now they have the inventory including all the 08 and 09 folks in addition to the few 07 straglers, which is pretty huge. Your date is July 08 and most likely your case has already been taken up. Mine was and have received some rfes which I am working on now. So looks like they are working to get folks preadjudicated and ready.

Thomacha: Just curious!! How the RFE on 485 works? Does it come after the EAD/AP or to get EAD/AP, someone need to clear the RFE?

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by UKannan

Thomacha: Just curious!! How the RFE on 485 works? Does it come after the EAD/AP or to get EAD/AP, someone need to clear the RFE?

Based on personal experience and reading from posts here I feel that generally the trend is that the EAD/AP is issued within a short period of application and there is not much scrutiny of the application at that point unless your PD is really at the stage where it should be processed ahead of all others in which case you wont need an EAD at all. If your PD is much later than those that are being approved (issued GC) then they wont go into much detailed scrutiny while issuing the EAD. After that when the application is taken up by an officer for detailed processing (to preadjudicate/approve for GC) they untie all the knots and look into it more carefully. This is when they issue rfes. So yes generally rfe flow starts after EAD/AP.
IV has a wikipedia page for 485 rfes you could google and will end up with that page. Its a good read if you have not seen that yet.

[geevikram]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Yes I think that is what he meant. Dates have to move beyond Aug 07 in October 12 or potentially even a bit earlier (if there is some leftovers), otherwise there will be visa wastage. However, to move beyond May 10 it will likely be October 13 unless HR3012 happens!! For now they have the inventory including all the 08 and 09 folks in addition to the few 07 straglers, which is pretty huge. Your date is July 08 and most likely your case has already been taken up. Mine was and have received some rfes which I am working on now. So looks like they are working to get folks preadjudicated and ready.

Thanks.. that's what I thought. I don't want to wait until Oct 13 to get my GC.

[UKannan]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

Based on personal experience and reading from posts here I feel that generally the trend is that the EAD/AP is issued within a short period of application and there is not much scrutiny of the application at that point unless your PD is really at the stage where it should be processed ahead of all others in which case you wont need an EAD at all. If your PD is much later than those that are being approved (issued GC) then they wont go into much detailed scrutiny while issuing the EAD. After that when the application is taken up by an officer for detailed processing (to preadjudicate/approve for GC) they untie all the knots and look into it more carefully. This is when they issue rfes. So yes generally rfe flow starts after EAD/AP.
IV has a wikipedia page for 485 rfes you could google and will end up with that page. Its a good read if you have not seen that yet.

Thnx...Mine will be a long-journey for reaching 485 Stage..Hope before the retirement