EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by The WalL

The new DD for June bulletin is very interesting. If the total known demand for all of 2008 is just 7.5k and then demand for 2009 is only 2.4k, then there is something definitely wrong there. Either not all of the FEB, MAR and APR bulletins converted to demand (due to retrogression) or this is severely under-reporting that demand. Either way, EB2 could be C or close to it by end of FY2013. The only factor that could prevent this scenario from playing out would be porting in large numbers (~5k per year).

Very well said. The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or lets rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood be the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.

[The WalL]

Originally Posted by mgmanoj

I don't see porting happening much from Eb3 to EB2 this year. As of October 2011 Pending 485 inventory for EB3 india on USCIS site is 51758 while demand data is 49500 - means only 2200 EB3 approved with porting.

Thanks for digging up those numbers for EB3. If EB3 has gone down by just 2200, then one has to question whether porting is at all happening. It might be in some small numbers but not significant enough to change the dynamics of aggressive, future PD movement.

[for_gc]

Another interesting fact is that the total demand from all countries for EB3 is only 21K or so till 2012. Does this mean that spillover may happen within EB3 to India, any time soon?

Teddy, others any thoughts?

[The WalL]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Very well said. The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or lets rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood be the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.

Thanks. I agree with your projections of 25K when the dust settles down in a month or so. If this number carries through when we get our next look at the pending inventory, we can be fairly sure of EB2 I/C PD moving right back to 01-MAY-2010 in OCT-2012 bulletin and might end the winter at mid-2011 dates. That would put demand destruction at 0.75 - 0.8 as you had been assuming earlier.

The other question that may arise out of this is will EB3 see any SOFAD in FY2013 or does that wait until FY2014? I know its fairly optimistic to talk about spillover into EB3 at this point but its worth pointing out that there is outside chance of this occuring. A lot of this will depend on what happens between now and November in Congress (HR3012) and Obama's re-election. There is a bigger upside to immigration reform legislation with Obama as POTUS rather than a 1st term Romney who might be wary of upsetting his Tea-baggers.

Oh well, lets wait until Pending Inventory report from USCIS before we start dreaming up all these scenarios.

[rdevender]

I think there will be definte movement during the last qrtr ie between Jul to Sep bulletin
My best guess is they will take the cut off dates to May 2010 for EB2I/C
Second guess is at least Jan 1st 2009.
I'm assuming there will be year end Spillover and other thing USCIS can do is they can clear EB2 I/C cases and hold the cases of other countries for couple of months until the numbers are available in OCT 2012

[traveld]

travel deals

[pardesibabu]

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...2005-03-12.xls

[dhakaldoo]

EB2 I/ C - Unavailable

EB3 C -3rd 8 Aug 05 (not sure as wrote something else)
EB3 I - 3rd 15 Sept o2

Good thing is no cutoff to EB2 ROW as CM predicted on his blog.

[arun_ramani]

The inventory report presents a very bleak picture. It looks like it would take years to clear the current backlog.

Originally Posted by pardesibabu

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...2005-03-12.xls

[rdevender]

I see a good picture from Spillover point of view,
on an average the EB1 has less than 2000 Applications per month(I'm taking into consideration the last 3 months of data for EB1 assuming those are the final figures), if we take this trend.. there will be around 20000 Visa numbers available for EB2 at th end of this year.
and at the same time I'm expecting atleast 10K from EB2 Spillover.
We will have around 30 thousand visa numbers avaialble for EB2C/I
My guess is there will be a big movent in the last quarter

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by arun_ramani

The inventory report presents a very bleak picture. It looks like it would take years to clear the current backlog.

Friends the inventory comes as a complete shocker the EB2 I/C backlog is close to the 47 - 48K range this is virtually a 2 year inventory if we get 22-25K SOFAD every year. This means only 50% of the cases are preadjudicated the demand data will take time to build up. The inventory figure is well beyond even he most conservative estimates. Demand destruction seems to be within 10%.

[dhakaldoo]

SO basically,
The dates wont move for next two years provided HR 3012 does not pass Correct?

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends the inventory comes as a complete shocker the EB2 I/C backlog is close to the 47 - 48K range this is virtually a 2 year inventory if we get 22-25K SOFAD every year. This means only 50% of the cases are preadjudicated the demand data will take time to build up. The inventory figure is well beyond even he most conservative estimates. Demand destruction seems to be within 10%.

[gchungry]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends the inventory comes as a complete shocker the EB2 I/C backlog is close to the 47 - 48K range this is virtually a 2 year inventory if we get 22-25K SOFAD every year. This means only 50% of the cases are preadjudicated the demand data will take time to build up. The inventory figure is well beyond even he most conservative estimates. Demand destruction seems to be within 10%.

Teddy
Could you please tell me.. How many visa numbers available every FY, break down by EB vs FB and category 1 through 5, and also I/C/Philipines/Maxico/ROW.

Thanks

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends the inventory comes as a complete shocker the EB2 I/C backlog is close to the 47 - 48K range this is virtually a 2 year inventory if we get 22-25K SOFAD every year. This means only 50% of the cases are preadjudicated the demand data will take time to build up. The inventory figure is well beyond even he most conservative estimates. Demand destruction seems to be within 10%.

Teddy does this months demand data show 47-48k range for EB2 I/C?

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends the inventory comes as a complete shocker the EB2 I/C backlog is close to the 47 - 48K range this is virtually a 2 year inventory if we get 22-25K SOFAD every year. This means only 50% of the cases are preadjudicated the demand data will take time to build up. The inventory figure is well beyond even he most conservative estimates. Demand destruction seems to be within 10%.

Ok that is from the inventory.
Why is there so much discrepency from the demand data and the inventory? Also notice the huge difference between the chinese and indian inventory per month in 08 and 09. Is there something wrong? Could there be some cumulative effect in the indian numbers? Based on the inventory there is approx 1000 per month in 08 and 09 (15k per year).