EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[imh1b]

Originally Posted by Sakthisagar

]

If you think the idea is so good, why is no update on this idea after more than 1 year? why don't you find out and tell us the update instead of just posting links to ideas someone else needs to work on?

[flthere]

I think there has to be per-country limit on the H1-B/L1 visas as well ... otherwise the backlogs will go on forever and ever and ever ...

For example, there have been 25,000 and more H1b applications that are approved for India, but India only has about 10000 GC numbers to be awarded (Chunk of EB1 are anyways not utilised) ...

Someone needs to write to Grassley about this glaring difference

[coldcloud]

Originally Posted by pappu

RFE can be given anytime even if the dates are U. Pre- adjudication can happen or any other audit can happen when an application is not current. Pre- adjudication: I think this is a big confusion area and people take too much tension for it and waste time asking a status for it. Its no use. One can get an RFE even after the case has been Pre- adjudicated. Pre- adjudication is just an internal process. Likewise stop worrying about LUDs and tracking them. It is a waste of time. It only helps increase anxiety and increase profits of websites when people choose to track and discuss it. Folks who understand how system work will not care for LUDs and Pre- adjudication.

Hi Pappu - I spoke to a L2 officer and she confirmed that our cases have been pre-adjudicated and when I asked what does this mean - she told clearly that preadjudicated means the cases have been all approved and just waiting for a visa number to be available.

Do you think this is not correct? and is there cases where RFE was issued after Pre-adjudication?

[pappu]

Originally Posted by coldcloud

Hi Pappu - I spoke to a L2 officer and she confirmed that our cases have been pre-adjudicated and when I asked what does this mean - she told clearly that preadjudicated means the cases have been all approved and just waiting for a visa number to be available.

Do you think this is not correct? and is there cases where RFE was issued after Pre-adjudication?

Next time you call what if you get a different answer.? Which one will you believe?

So avoid getting stressed about pre-adj and LUDs.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by rorlig

or they have been told that hr 3012 will pass hence are holding the visas for ROW

No visas are being held. We discussed this in detail possibility of movement for categories in the coming months. And the fact is that only 100 - 300 visas are left for EB2 ROW. They will be needed for some age out cases/cases stuck abroad or litigation cases etc. So EB2 ROW should not be having any expectations for the year as of now.

[akshayax]

Originally Posted by akshayax

Folks - I know this post will create some excitement.
Background – PD June 4, 2007, I-485 filed in early Oct, RFE late Feb (Birth Certificate missing or misplaced by USCUS), response to RFE recd by USCIS on Mar 9th. Initiated a SR on May 12th for myself by making the argument that RFE response period was over and when wife called the officer would not take the SR.
Recently moved within the town changed the address in USCIS system and got acknowledgement from USCIS in writing.
Today – Got an email from USCIS about case status update post undeliverable can affect processing time. Contacted USCIS asking why this message was sent, response from representative was that complaint cannot be logged as a SR is pending, wait till June 15. Called attorney they updated the address once more via USCIS website and said they would call USCIS. At noon time got email card production ordered for self, but no email for my wife if the case was approved or not.
Called USCIS again asking what the status is for my wife’s case, response of the representative was that the case is not yet beyond processing time….. words cannot describe what I felt like or wanted to say…. Took a deep breath and asked for the supervisor. The supervisor apologized for the first rep and created a SR for the wife’s case. Not sure if she will get her green card before October.
Should I trust the email that I got noon time saying card in production??? How is it possible if no visa is available for EB2-India?
Moral of the story as you all know USCIS and State Department are not to be believed, if case is current as per the documentation keep trying and do not go by hearsay or what USCIS/State Dept say till it is in writing.

Will update if I get the card in mail …. If it is sent to the right address etc…..saga may be over or to be continued….

We got the green card over the weekend in mail so the roller coaster journey is over and the email on may 30 from USICS for approval for self was incorrect. Rcvd a new approval email on June 11 for both.
Best of luck to all who are still awaiting GC.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by gten

:

rumor get posted on forums and get spread like fire. And then some attorney writes something and gets more discussed and publicized whether it is true or not.

Based on our discussion recently EB1 could get a cut off date due to heavy usage. The applications have increased this year.

[Rb_newsletter]

Originally Posted by pappu

No visas are being held. We discussed this in detail possibility of movement for categories in the coming months. And the fact is that only 100 - 300 visas are left for EB2 ROW. They will be needed for some age out cases/cases stuck abroad or litigation cases etc. So EB2 ROW should not be having any expectations for the year as of now.

Originally Posted by pappu

Based on our discussion recently EB1 could get a cut off date due to heavy usage. The applications have increased this year.

Pappu, thanks for updates.

So in next bulletin it would be U for EB2 ROW and some cut-off date for EB1.
Folks don't be surprised to see another thread titled "EB1 predictions".

[pappu]

Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter

Pappu, thanks for updates.

So in next bulletin it would be U for EB2 ROW and some cut-off date for EB1.
Folks don't be surprised to see another thread titled "EB1 predictions".

Most likely August/september instead of next moth. The sense we got was that there are still eb1 numbers and they could run out towards the end of the year. Thus spillover possibility is bleak and on the contrary cutoff date can be established for eb1. There have been lot of eb1 filings this year and the reason for such thinking .

[dhakaldoo]

Originally Posted by pappu

Most likely August/september instead of next moth. The sense we got was that there are still eb1 numbers and they could run out towards the end of the year. Thus spillover possibility is bleak and on the contrary cutoff date can be established for eb1. There have been lot of eb1 filings this year and the reason for such thinking .

Whattt? EB1 cutoff date? OMG! without spill over from ROW and Eb1 all EB2 IC is going to become similar to EB3 and I can only imagine what happens to EB3!

[thomachan72]

Originally Posted by dhakaldoo

Whattt? EB1 cutoff date? OMG! without spill over from ROW and Eb1 all EB2 IC is going to become similar to EB3 and I can only imagine what happens to EB3!

wonder how much of the EB1 usage is related to the L1 multinational managers!!

[dhakaldoo]

Originally Posted by thomachan72

wonder how much of the EB1 usage is related to the L1 multinational managers!!

Lets not get into that! The blame game is never ending!!

[checkmet64]

Originally Posted by The WalL

Interesting question. I dont think I've seen such an analysis on here. For the sake of back of the envelope calculations, I like to think of 3012 as creating a single pile for each EB category. Based on that, this is how FY2013 would end with HR3012 as law:
EB1 - C
EB2 - 01-JAN-2012 or later (assumes SOFAD from EB1 based on EB1 usage of ~20k in FY2013...the eventual date is based on the stabilized inventory data that would have all the applications accounted for...the latest inventory is still work in progress)
EB3 - 01-FEB-2006 (no SOFAD love in 2013 yet)
EB4 - C
EB5 - C

By end of FY2014, this will change even more significantly:
EB1, 2, 4, 5 - C
EB3 - 01-JAN-2008 (assuming demand in this category remains similar to past, known data of 30k per year)

At the end of FY2015, EB3 will be at 01-JAN-2010. Beyond this point, its hard to predict since there is no data available (either on PERM or on 140).

Again, HR3012 is a long way away from being reality.

Can anybody fine tune this analysis based on current information?

[mzc123]

Originally Posted by pappu

Most likely August/september instead of next moth. The sense we got was that there are still eb1 numbers and they could run out towards the end of the year. Thus spillover possibility is bleak and on the contrary cutoff date can be established for eb1. There have been lot of eb1 filings this year and the reason for such thinking .

very interesting..... all of sudden they started thinking, did the eb1 applications just flooded in last 2 months? Why weren't they thinking when they rapidly moved the dates 3+ years for EB2-I/C and caused a chaotic situation once again ..... Later PDs got approved ahead of older cases. Now they have a reason to "think", of course they do!! ... every time we see rapid movement, we end up suffering for years thereafter...

Pappu, shouldn't we be having discussion about the FIFO process with them rather than having discussion about cutoff dates... it sounds more like we are getting updates and not having true "discussions".

[pappu]

Originally Posted by mzc123

very interesting..... all of sudden they started thinking, did the eb1 applications just flooded in last 2 months? Why weren't they thinking when they rapidly moved the dates 3+ years for EB2-I/C and caused a chaotic situation once again ..... Later PDs got approved ahead of older cases. Now they have a reason to "think", of course they do!! ... every time we see rapid movement, we end up suffering for years thereafter...

Pappu, shouldn't we be having discussion about the FIFO process with them rather than having discussion about cutoff dates... it sounds more like we are getting updates and not having true "discussions".

Rapid adancement of eb2 dates was a good thing. We had proposed that knowing well that dates will go back eventually. This was mentioned too when we we're proposing that. Donor members were fully aware on this and some details were posted on public forums.Thousands of EB2 folks are now enjoying the benefits of EAD because of this and should be thankful. Do not look narrowly around your own application. As a policy it was a good decision without any admin fix or law change. And FiFO is being followed. It is the best that can be practically possibile and we agree with it. Only people who have not spent time understanding the process and getting misled on forums think that FIFO is not being followed. Having worked closely with officials for a long period of time and having discussed even minor and major topics we can be assertive in our posts and will only blame USCIS where it is at fault. Other admins, lawyers or website may play to the crowd for their selfish business gains, but we will call right as right and wrong as wrong. tracking and wasting time on junk info on forums will only irritate you and mislead you. join the community effort and help others. One should be happy in EB2 that they at least got to file 485 and are close to getting current. Imagine fellow friends in eb3 that have a much longer wait and no relief in sight. And that is called frustration.