EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[flthere]

Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter

Where did you hear? What did you hear?

Here is the link

[Rb_newsletter]

Originally Posted by flthere

Here is the link

Thanks. Now I also see the post in iV.

[mzc123]

Originally Posted by pappu

Rapid adancement of eb2 dates was a good thing. We had proposed that knowing well that dates will go back eventually. This was mentioned too when we we're proposing that. Donor members were fully aware on this and some details were posted on public forums.Thousands of EB2 folks are now enjoying the benefits of EAD because of this and should be thankful. Do not look narrowly around your own application. As a policy it was a good decision without any admin fix or law change. And FiFO is being followed. It is the best that can be practically possibile and we agree with it. Only people who have not spent time understanding the process and getting misled on forums think that FIFO is not being followed. Having worked closely with officials for a long period of time and having discussed even minor and major topics we can be assertive in our posts and will only blame USCIS where it is at fault. Other admins, lawyers or website may play to the crowd for their selfish business gains, but we will call right as right and wrong as wrong. tracking and wasting time on junk info on forums will only irritate you and mislead you. join the community effort and help others. One should be happy in EB2 that they at least got to file 485 and are close to getting current. Imagine fellow friends in eb3 that have a much longer wait and no relief in sight. And that is called frustration.

Yes and I understand where you are coming from.......please let me clarify, I have nothing against the forward movement or folks getting EAD, I was just making a point that any forward (or rapid) movement has to based off with some logic and has to be orderly manner.... this random movements only affects us (no one else is going to lose anything).

Also, I did not even mention about other websites or forums so please don't get sidetracked... I think that is just futile conversation.

As far as the EB3 comparison, I don't think that is fair comparison. It is like comparing apples and oranges. Just as you stated, there are laws in place and processes have to be followed, and hence, we have EB2 and EB3 and hence, different protocols. Again, my point made was comparing apples with apples... that is, within TSC center, there were still quiet a few later PDs approved than older PDs. And this is what I meant by processing FIFO. Being current for 5 months (and waiting almost 5 years to apply 485) and don't even see pre-adjudicated and then dates retrogress, this along with frustration makes you something to think about how screwed up their process is... Ask any person on this forum if they would happily allow others with later PDs get their GC if they have been waiting for 5+ years themselves... everyone knows the answer to that... and if anyone says yes, I bet they are lying. If the goal is all of us to get EAD, then why dont we suggets them a proposal to have two dates, one to file 485 (so everyone gets EAD) and other to get GC approved?

I guess everyone has their own opinion here....

[GC_Green9]

Hello Teddy,

I sent you a private message. Can you please reply?

Thank you.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by mzc123

Yes and I understand where you are coming from.......please let me clarify, I have nothing against the forward movement or folks getting EAD, I was just making a point that any forward (or rapid) movement has to based off with some logic and has to be orderly manner.... this random movements only affects us (no one else is going to lose anything).

Also, I did not even mention about other websites or forums so please don't get sidetracked... I think that is just futile conversation.

As far as the EB3 comparison, I don't think that is fair comparison. It is like comparing apples and oranges. Just as you stated, there are laws in place and processes have to be followed, and hence, we have EB2 and EB3 and hence, different protocols. Again, my point made was comparing apples with apples... that is, within TSC center, there were still quiet a few later PDs approved than older PDs. And this is what I meant by processing FIFO. Being current for 5 months (and waiting almost 5 years to apply 485) and don't even see pre-adjudicated and then dates retrogress, this along with frustration makes you something to think about how screwed up their process is... Ask any person on this forum if they would happily allow others with later PDs get their GC if they have been waiting for 5+ years themselves... everyone knows the answer to that... and if anyone says yes, I bet they are lying. If the goal is all of us to get EAD, then why dont we suggets them a proposal to have two dates, one to file 485 (so everyone gets EAD) and other to get GC approved?

I guess everyone has their own opinion here....

Avoid reading junk info on the forum everyone says. There is lot of misinformation. Do not look at the problem from the narrow lens of your own PD and application. This effort is not about me but us. Join the effort, contribute , support, volunteer instead of sitting on the sidelines. Each person volunteering, contributing and doing action items is important in the larger scheme of things to bring relief to a larger community. We are not like any lawyer website or tracking website that is only interested in making money from ads and business and writing to have you read what you would like to hear. Sometimes comments are harsh from us because we are not for profit and our aim is to bring awareness and change. We aim to help people rise above their selfishness of their application and work together. People in this movement are not just people who are pending, but some are current, already have greencard and some are even citizens.

Trying to track TSC and NSC and asking dates to be moved and approved in strict FIFO is very different from how how things work. The process has become very efficient in the last few years and current process helps avoid wastage of visas. Such comments from IV are not going to be liked by many but it is the truth. On some other website so called experts may tell you what you want to hear and get appreciation and business. But we looked very closely at the process and discuss doubts with the officials themselves. Such access is not possible for many and thus we try and use the information here for awareness. Talking about pre adjudication is also another sign of getting mislead from forum posts and wasting time. Please read info on IV regularly by admins and official information on uscis site and official blog to understand the process. Read uscis memos that are public. We had mentioned a few times about preadjudication process. But it seems people are still wasting time over it. HR3012 is the real FIFO that will help the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. Please help the community by supporting this effort.

Help us with HR3012 by supporting IV. There is an urgent action item at http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...-hr3012-8.html (UPDATE/ACTION ITEM:HR3012: Ask your employer to sign this petition supporting HR3012)
We look forward for your participation before your greencard and even after you get greencard to fix this issue for everyone.

[TeddyKoochu]

Originally Posted by senram

There should be a lot of difference in EB2 and EB3. But consulting companies are using loopholes to apply in EB2. If the person is working as a contractor in oracle he can apply in EB2 if a person is having Master or BS with 5 years exp. But if same person applies as an employee he can apply in EB3. This is a manipulation of EB system. So you cannot justify. If you go to USCIS this issue it will open many issues to Indian immigration community. So it is wise for you to use the current system(You can try to upgrade to Eb2).
or If you are luckier Hr 3012 or expansion of EB system happens then you can get GC faster

EB2 and Eb3 both have fairly well defined criteria. It is pretty much legal for a consulting company to file a floating (Not fixed) location perm, it goes through the same process with DOL just like any other perm. Consulting companies also perms based on the head office location a lot of times they use floating location.
Similarly at the i140 stage the employee and employer go through the same grind with the employee having to prove the required credentials to match the job description and employer showing ability to pay.
Most consultants who work in America are actually doing jobs that the client defines need at least 5 years of experience. I cannot comment on other fields but in IT having work experience is fairly important in fact sometimes it is given more value than the actual academic background itself. So anyone with a 4 years engineering degree or MCA is fine.
So if a consulting company is filing in Eb2 with bachelors + 5 and showing a similar profile it should be fine unfortunately I believe that the injustice is happening at the larger companies which are often glorified as being correct but they choose to file in EB3 to retain talent for the longest possible time.
The real purpose of this thread is to let people know the timelines and if joining a consultancy company helps join by all means and file in Eb2. Do note that life as a consultant is not easy with regards h1 extensions and otherwise. Grass always looks greener on the other side you may loose all the benefits, comforts and career growth as a FTE.
Another thing that is happening in a very big way is that people are moving to India, Europe or Canada for some time and then coming back and filing in Eb1C. Again a lot of us including me may feel that is it’s not right however since the definition of a multinational manager is not quantitatively defined but very qualitative it is legal as long as the adjudicator can be convinced.
A lot of this may not satisfy some of the morality tests but none of it is illegal. If one can speed up their own process under the current system following all the laws or its interpretations there is nothing illegal about it. So I would urge all to make their choices to speed up their own process or stay put based on how things are moving in their respective categories.


Consulting

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends a lot of people have questions how Eb3-I would move if HR 3012 passes.

Firstly EB3 is unique in the sense that India is severely backlogged compared to any other country. If HR 3012 were to become effective by Oct 2012, Eb3-I would get 25K visas in year one and the PD for EB3-I at the end of Sep 2013 will be closwe to mid 2004.

This kind of allocation for Eb3-I is almost equal to 10 years of allocation. It will take 3 years for EB3-I date to cath up with Eb3 ROW.

Without HR 3012 the situation is very bad by Sep 2012 the dates will range between 01-Oct-2012 to 15-Oct 2002.

also a lot of people from Nov 2002 and Dec 2002 are feeling that thye dates are so close but yet so far. These 2 months have very heavy inventory it will take 6 months or even more especially for these 2 months to clear out.

Any one in feb 2003 or beyound should plan to port by all means.

Let us all hope that HR 3012 becomes reality it will be a great relief.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends here is how EB2-I will be impacted by HR 3012.

Unlike EB3, for EB2 India and China go and in hand. Typically China inventory for every month is equal to India.

If HR 3012 were to pass EB2 I/C combined will get ~ 20K extra visas for the year.

If in the upcoming year HR 3012 does not pass we would be looking at just 10-12K SOFAD the reason being EB2 ROW has a decent backlog of -8K which will need to be satisfied and EB1 will not yield much as EB1C usage is going higher and impact of Kazarian memo is dissapearing. With this we wilol barely cross 2007 and move to early 2008.

In 2012 we saw ~ 22K SOFAD and in 2011 we saw ~ 34K SOFAD. So essentially if HR 3012 passes we can expect allocation similar to these years and dates for EB2 as a whole can move to early 2009.

PS - Friends I cannot edit the header of the thread anymore in order to maintain the thread as login free, so I will write out details more frequently via a new post.

[spicy_guy]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends a lot of people have questions how Eb3-I would move if HR 3012 passes.

Firstly EB3 is unique in the sense that India is severely backlogged compared to any other country. If HR 3012 were to become effective by Oct 2012, Eb3-I would get 25K visas in year one and the PD for EB3-I at the end of Sep 2013 will be closwe to mid 2004.

This kind of allocation for Eb3-I is almost equal to 10 years of allocation. It will take 3 years for EB3-I date to cath up with Eb3 ROW.

Without HR 3012 the situation is very bad by Sep 2012 the dates will range between 01-Oct-2012 to 15-Oct 2002.

also a lot of people from Nov 2002 and Dec 2002 are feeling that thye dates are so close but yet so far. These 2 months have very heavy inventory it will take 6 months or even more especially for these 2 months to clear out.

Any one in feb 2003 or beyound should plan to port by all means.

Let us all hope that HR 3012 becomes reality it will be a great relief.

Thanks, teddy!

So that being said, you think EB3I beyond 2003 Dec would still have to wait for years, even if the bill passes? How long would it take to reach 2005? Any guesses?

[sagar8880]

If HR 3012 becomes law, how many years it will take to cross the year 2007?
I think we have very few EB3 applications from 2008, My PD is 2010 July.
My company is not ready file on EB2 so I've wait or switch the company, please let me know, how many years it will take?

[anu_t]

Pls re read Teddy's post. At the end of Sept 2013 EB3 will move to 2004 PD that is what he is saying. That will be a great thing for so many EB3 filers.

[pappu]

Originally Posted by anu_t

Pls re read Teddy's post. At the end of Sept 2013 EB3 will move to 2004 PD that is what he is saying. That will be a great thing for so many EB3 filers.

All this could be coupled with fast forward movement of dates at a certain time (like what we saw for EB2 in the recent past that IV proposed) so that people can file I485 in EB3 that have not filed yet. So do not waste time on minor details now. Look at the big picture and everything will fall into place once HR3012 passes. We are working very hard. Please take part in the action item.

[sagar8880]

Thanks Pappu

[flthere]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends a lot of people have questions how Eb3-I would move if HR 3012 passes.

Firstly EB3 is unique in the sense that India is severely backlogged compared to any other country. If HR 3012 were to become effective by Oct 2012, Eb3-I would get 25K visas in year one and the PD for EB3-I at the end of Sep 2013 will be closwe to mid 2004.

This kind of allocation for Eb3-I is almost equal to 10 years of allocation. It will take 3 years for EB3-I date to cath up with Eb3 ROW.

Without HR 3012 the situation is very bad by Sep 2012 the dates will range between 01-Oct-2012 to 15-Oct 2002.

also a lot of people from Nov 2002 and Dec 2002 are feeling that thye dates are so close but yet so far. These 2 months have very heavy inventory it will take 6 months or even more especially for these 2 months to clear out.

Any one in feb 2003 or beyound should plan to port by all means.

Let us all hope that HR 3012 becomes reality it will be a great relief.

Thanks Teddy for your time. A quick question though. You just said EB3-India will get 25,000 visas a year, say, starting from next year until it catches up. I just looked at the I485 inventory, and EB3-India has 49,445 cases pending until July/August 2007. That means it should take only 2 yrs to reach July 2007, isn't it ?

[rbusgc]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends here is how EB2-I will be impacted by HR 3012.

Unlike EB3, for EB2 India and China go and in hand. Typically China inventory for every month is equal to India.

If HR 3012 were to pass EB2 I/C combined will get ~ 20K extra visas for the year.

If in the upcoming year HR 3012 does not pass we would be looking at just 10-12K SOFAD the reason being EB2 ROW has a decent backlog of -8K which will need to be satisfied and EB1 will not yield much as EB1C usage is going higher and impact of Kazarian memo is dissapearing. With this we wilol barely cross 2007 and move to early 2008.

In 2012 we saw ~ 22K SOFAD and in 2011 we saw ~ 34K SOFAD. So essentially if HR 3012 passes we can expect allocation similar to these years and dates for EB2 as a whole can move to early 2009.

PS - Friends I cannot edit the header of the thread anymore in order to maintain the thread as login free, so I will write out details more frequently via a new post.

Hi Teddy,

Quick Question... if HR 3012 is passed shouldn't the number of visa's available for EB2 in a year be MINIMUM of 140,000 * 0.286 = 40,040 (using the logic of 28.6 percentage of 140,000)... and a MAXIMUM of 40,040 + Any spill over.. considering the fact that India and China's retrogression is earlier than ROW, most of these visas should be allocated to I&C .. hence a better movement than what you predicted above. Considering the 15% reserve for ROW will only reduce the EB2 Minimum by 6000 ...which means EB2 I&C will still have 34,000 visas .. so in any case the movement of EB2 should be better than what you mentioned above.

Not sure if I am making any wrong assumption..please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks,

RB