EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[gcwait2007]

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007
EB3 I- APR 15 2002


Folowing is my current draft still work in progress will be editing it soon

Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumlative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 30126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 32485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 34871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 37200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 39389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 42319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 47880

- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory. By this time we should assume that 3 months worth of cap for India and China has been consumed. So ~ 1400 Numbers are consumed.

- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.

- The starting offset for India assumes 6K PD Porting + 700 Cases Approved + 500 old cases not approved = 7200. For China it Assumes 700 Cases Approved + 100 older cases. The total offset at the start is 8000. We should assume the porting as part of the offset as we will not se any movement till Jul. Looks like porting is only happening for India.

- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500 lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the inventory is the baseline.

- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point.

- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K

Now lets analyze on That Website to see the trend for Oct 2010 to Jan 2011

Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB2 ROW – 211 EB2 NIW – 34 Total - 245
EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 196
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB2 ROW – 153 EB2 NIW – 16 Total - 169
EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 53
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-26925 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (169/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 20K ~ 14K.
EB5 SOFAD will be ~ 8K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 18 + 5 = 34K.
With ~ 34 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this will put us at 01-JAN02007.
Best case scenario is EB1 gives us an extra 10K and the PWMB demand will be felt only when the dates cross May 2007 so kind of add 13K on top of the 34K this can actually help to throw us over the fence finally to 01-AUG-2007, this again is extremely optimistic but not impossible. We just have to continue monitoring for more time.

__________________

Is the work complete now?

[gcpb]

Originally Posted by gcpb

We basically need to focus on this aspect (i.e. porting count) alone, IMHO, and the rest will be easily derived

To this end, I had posted earlier in this forum with some calculations. The numbers I arrived at seemed way too optimistic, though, with less than 300 EB3I --> EB2I portings in 2010. Anybody has any comments on that?

[eastindia]

Latest predictions after calculations.

EB2 India

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 30-Oct-06
September - 15-Dec-06

Optimistic scenario

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 15-Nov-06
September -15-Jan-07

[eastindia]

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

So get off the prediction threads and put some effort in advocacy and donations.

It starts with you before you preach. Show us what you are doing with IV to help with advocacy and what is your donation this month.
Stop preaching if you cannot follow what you preach. You are EB3 and will be like this if you do not donate and go to lobby day. So stop wasting time and book your tickets to lobby day.

[tonyHK12]

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

So get off the prediction threads and put some effort in advocacy and donations.

This is probably the first post of yours I agree with, but it applies to everybody EB2 and EB3. Besides newbies, predictions also have value in terms of helping people relocate, change jobs, in investments, or to throw in the towel.
I also feel this helps most people who are close to getting current.

[tonyHK12]

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Well all they have on the prediction threads are EB2 prediction so why not man up and title the thread as EB2 predictions. That way we know what it is about. Also i personally feel that for this wave of advocacy especially EB2 should be contributing for advocacy instead of wasting time as they have a real chance of success.
.

Just to clarify both EB2 and EB3 have a real chance of success. There is no Bill we can write today that will benefit only EB2. There is no such thing in IVs provisions. Its time to stop saying IV is not doing anything for EB3.

[imh1b]

Plainspeak, Do you have an employer or you are a stay at home Mom or just an unemployed person. Maybe you are some out of status H1B immigrant staying illegally and now having something against other legal folks doing something.
Whatever you are. You just have lot of time in this world to waste if you do not believe in what IV does. You may even be an employee of some other immigration website paid to post such negative messages on this forum. I have always suspected those paid employees being against IV because of their business is threatened by popularity of IV.

[imh1b]

Originally Posted by tonyHK12

Just to clarify both EB2 and EB3 have a real chance of success. There is no Bill we can write today that will benefit only EB2. There is no such thing in IVs provisions. Its time to stop saying IV is not doing anything for EB3.

Tony, this plainspeak guy looks like one of the paid employees of other immigration website to me sitting in a small room in India and typing with multiple usernames in the night on forums to help increase visitors. He is just threatened by the fact that a lot of people are watching this prediction thread and joining advocacy day action item instead of spending time on his site. Te longer people are waiting for Greencards, the more time people will come to his website. So IV work is not in his 'principle' of things.

[Michael chertoff]

Originally Posted by imh1b

Plainspeak, Do you have an employer or you are a stay at home Mom or just an unemployed person. Maybe you are some out of status H1B immigrant staying illegally and now having something against other legal folks doing something.
Whatever you are. You just have lot of time in this world to waste if you do not believe in what IV does. You may even be an employee of some other immigration website paid to post such negative messages on this forum. I have always suspected those paid employees being against IV because of their business is threatened by popularity of IV.

Dear friend. it looks like Plainspeak is member of IV since 2006 and he had posted less then half number of posts then you have posted who is just a newbie in this forum, you can tell who have more time and who is stay home mom or stay home pop.

I am not agreeing with Plainspeak on dividing EB3 and Eb2.

work together man, dont insult anyone on saying something you dont like. specially when you are not talking face to face.

Cheers,

MC

[sanz]

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Plainspeak, Do you have an employer
Yes.... and a nice american one too

In US, doesnt everyone have American employer ... ???

Or is that something unusual

[krishmunn]

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

i never do predictions

From your other post --- "Why do you EB2 guys waste your time on prediction threads? The dates for you guys will any how move in the last quarter and in a year or two it will become current."

Is that not a "prediction" !!

[gcwait2007]

Originally Posted by eastindia

Latest predictions after calculations.

EB2 India

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 30-Oct-06
September - 15-Dec-06

Optimistic scenario

Bulletin -- Cut-Off Dates
July --------- 1-Aug-06
August ------ 15-Nov-06
September -15-Jan-07

Thanks.

Can some one advise me how one can port from EB2 to EB1?

I have a masters degree, coupled with 25 yrs IT experience.

[PlainSpeak]

Admin(Pappu) - Thank you for deleting all the messages ...

[Goodintentions]

Dear All,

While all educated and right thinking people would like to welcome dissent and differing opinions, we cannot allow divisive and hate messages when our situation is really in a hot seat and unity is the prime need of the hour . As such, it is really a good move to delete such messages in the interest of our community. These people sow the seeds of poison, create negative vibrations and also distract the community from using their time/ effort for the betterment of the suffering EB folks.

I am sure most of the members will support this. I am sure that if this done, we can brainstorm and use our energy in a more positive way!

GOD bless the EB community!

Best wishes!

[gckabaayega]

Hi Teddy,

My PD is May 2010 EB2-I, I know I have a long wait time.. but my question is: suppose the priority date reaches July 2007, as there are no more 485s pending will they make it current?