EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

[gc_on_demand]

Originally Posted by vdlrao

Only in 2005 its half when compared to 2006 or 2007. During 2005 clearing time North Korea alone has got about 8k EB2 visas if I remember correctly. And IV, VBkris, has taken this into USCIS note about this at that time.



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I don't think that DOS thinks that spill over combine will be more than 32k available demand. If demand were more than 35k then they would have move date so USCIS can accept new files after July 07 and approve them in Sep 2011. ( given that UCSIS needs 4 months ) since I follow DOS on family based category they generally advance dates for 1-2 years even though they don't have visas for that year and retrogress back for 1-2 years. This is how DOS building inventory and utilizing visas for family class.

So I am agree with you that even visas will be enough to reach Feb 2007, DOS will ( I mean ) should advance date to Mid 2008 so USCIS can be ready for next year's season.

[gc_peshwa]

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

It was AILA who posted that demand is low etc..... There was no firm information from DOS regarding 12k demand etc....

AILA has *officially* gone on record in their member-only news update with a quote from Charlie O. Granted AILA was whipping up visa frenzy amongst the EB immigrant community. But they would'nt attribute the comments to Charlie O in their public release.
Also DOS is not obliged to clarify what some organization quoted one of their officials on.

India used all regular quota for Porting then if you look from % point once can say that porting is high and its almost using 90 - 100 % of quota for given country.

Good analysis! But for DOS to say 'porting' is 'high', they must quantify it at SOME level. Why is that quantity (of so-called 'upgraders') not public?
On another note since DOS has specifically mentioned 'gauging the pipeline' terminology in May 2011 VB they certainly will act on building the pipeline once current crop of preadjudicated apps is exhausted.
When will they run out of the preadjudicated apps is anyone's guess. But within next 6 months or so they have to advance the dates well into 2008 or even 2009.

[bujji_rjy]

Originally Posted by MacX

yes, it happened it me few times. I thought there is some problem with my browser. Oncei think browser loaded complete page i used to hit on stop and then it works.

-Mac

Remove eVerything after html in webadress. Page will be stable then. I do it all the times in my small screen.

[vdlrao]

Originally Posted by veni001

2011(Q1+Q2) PERM disclosure data points that ROW demand is about the same as FY2010, but since EB1 is getting tougher and EB3ROW is retrogressed, there will be more EB2-ROW applicants this year compared to previous years, so i doubt any spillover from EB2ROW this year!

When EB1 is tougher that means EB1C is tougher for the so called managers. So these EB1C managers are mostly from Indian MNCs like Cognizant(CTS), Infosys, Wipro and TCS. So the demand is from India not from ROW. So there won't be any impact on EB2 ROW.


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[Honda]

Originally Posted by vdlrao

Well rodnyb!!! USCIS itself has said that there are 12k left over EB1 visas for the first 6 months when compared to the last year for the same time. So if expecting 12k for the next half would be optimistic , then expecting 1/3 of 12k ,which is 4000, for the next half would be a pessimistic. . So 25k spill over from EB1 is definitely a possible scenario.


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VDL Rao Predictions are always accurate. Thank you VDL Rao.

[rodnyb]

1. 12k number is some official from DOS told AILA.. and 12K is not specified half year, or whole year.. even worse, could those be all (including Eb2)?
2. Look at prior years (back to 2002 based on DOS annual visa statistics), Eb1 has rarely dropped below 20K (total 40K), so 20K is even a stretch
3. 4 months is 485 proceeding time, including receiving files, organizing, checking (FBI, medical, etc). Agreed, it could be 2 months or even 2 days, but I doubt. Majority of cases take months, especially when CIS has to approve huge number of pre-adjudicated EB2s. Last month, they approved 3K, that means almost 150 a day, next 4 month, even at 5K per month, still very high number..

Originally Posted by vdlrao

Well rodnyb!!! USCIS itself has said that there are 12k left over EB1 visas for the first 6 months when compared to the last year for the same time. So if expecting 12k for the next half would be optimistic , then expecting 1/3 of 12k ,which is 4000, for the next half would be a pessimistic. . So 25k spill over from EB1 is definitely a possible scenario.


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[rodnyb]

Agree. We can also expect EB2 I will increase for those PDs, mostly 2010 and after.
just curious, found this for CTS and infosys, those surely mostly not manager salary, how can they got EB1 before (really ridiculous)
Cognizant Technology Solutions Us Salaries | SalaryList.com
Infosys Salaries | SalaryList.com

Originally Posted by vdlrao

When EB1 is tougher that means EB1C is tougher for the so called managers. So these EB1C managers are mostly from Indian MNCs like Cognizant(CTS), Infosys, Wipro and TCS. So the demand is from India not from ROW. So there won't be any impact on EB2 ROW.


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[vadicherla]

Good News to all


India EB2 Oct 15 2006
Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India

[gcmadhu]

EB2 I - 15th Oct 2006
EB3 I - 22 Apr 2002

[LONGGCQUE]

3 1/2 months Eb2 I move appears more than expectations

[Rohan99]

Today I received e-mail from USCIS stating --> "Service records indicate that your case was approved and your I-551 card was mailed on May 9, 2011 to the address we had on file at that time. Please check with your local Post Office for undeliverable mail. Your document has not been returned to us. "

Looks like I am greened. But when I check my status on uscis.gov it shows "initial review" same from last 4 years, there is no LUD change also. I didn't receive any welcome e-mail or card production ordered. Is anyone in same scenario? Is this normal process?

[veni001]

Originally Posted by vdlrao

When EB1 is tougher that means EB1C is tougher for the so called managers. So these EB1C managers are mostly from Indian MNCs like Cognizant(CTS), Infosys, Wipro and TCS. So the demand is from India not from ROW. So there won't be any impact on EB2 ROW.
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vdl,
See below for EB1 numbers from India & China for the last 6 yrs , It is averaging about 5.0k per country per year!

EB1 INDIA i-485 approvals
2005 -6,336
2006 - 3,156
2007 - 2,855
2008 - 5,326
2009 - 6,672
2010 - 6,741
Total = 31,086

EB1 CHINA i-485 approvals
2005 -6,422
2006 - 3,278
2007 - 2,982
2008 - 5,602
2009 - 4,999
2010 - 6,741
Total = 30,024

I don't these numbers are significant when EB2 South Korea getting more then this per year!

[rodnyb]

Good news, Oct. 2006.. Seems DOS has some sense in using spillover now this month. It seems law only allow them use them in last quarter.

Originally Posted by rodnyb

DOS dilemma in the coming month

1. DOS has to rely on demand data to set PD for VB.
2. DOS wishes to have some inventory, as EB2I consume about 15K-30K per year
3. According to law, they can not move it fast after Sept 2011, as there will be visible demand > 2800 EB2I supply.
4. They will have to stay pretty much around the last PD in 2011 (Sept 2011 PD).
5. As inventory is getting low, DOS cannot still move PD too much according to law (point 3 above)
6. There could be a mess later 2012 as they have to consume all 20K EB2I from fall-down, etc. They don't want to make it Current, but move it just few months will waste visa numbers.

Something DOS might be considering
1. Since CIS needs 4 months to process, they can move PD to late 2007 or even 2008, to build inventory in July-Spet 2011 VB (ideally Sept 2011)
2. They then know demand till late 2007 or 2008
3. CIS will have plenty (but not millions, if PD made C) EB2I 485 to process
4. DOS can retrogress in Oct. 2011

Issues DOS/CIS has to work together
1. How to guarantee approval with FIFO, or just random for pre-adjudicated cases
2. Depending on visa usage from EB1/EB2 ROW, there could be people who have PD before the Sept 2011 VB PD, that won't get GC in Sept. Those people are pre-adjudicated as well.
3. Visa could be all used up in early Spet by all those pre-adjudicated, if they move PD after 07/2007

Safe route for DOS, and they might consider (they have smart people there, I am sure)
1. 07/2011 VB PD, move to 01/2007, so they can start use or EB1/Eb2ROW spillover to EB2I
2. 08/2011 VB PD (depending on 1), move to 01/2007 to 02/2007, to make sure visa asumption. Hopefully they can still have some supply to use
3. 09/2011 Since demand will be low (maybe a few K), and supply still have some, they can move PS further to 04/2008 (just random) to build demand without approving those application.

[srinivasj]

it would be very interesting to read what they will say in the bulletin about future movements..

[schrodinger]

Should we wait for official release on uscis.gov website or is the mumbai consulate update reliable?

Also usually when does the official bulletin get released after the update on the mumbai consulate website?