Good News for people waiting for Green Card

[vivid_bharti]

Petitions for US worker green cards down sharply - Yahoo! News
What this tells me is EB-2 India and China can become current in next or 2011 fiscal year and with EB-2 not consuming full 140K quota, it'll start flowing down to EB-3. I am hopeful you can see some movement in EB-3 india in fiscal year 2011. As I don't see new Green Card filings to pick up anytime soon.

[rockstart]

200K Plus applications in 2007. That is way more than what I had anticipated. I am not sure how long the slowdown in filinf will remain. We havent seen any spill over this year. Comparatively last year there was huge movement in India & China cases. This year has been a total waste till now.

[HV000]

This is great news indeed!! I don't see EB2 - I becoming current in FY2010 because of the existing backlog.

This news contradicts what USCIS/DOS have been saying that outlook for EB2/EB3 - I/C looks grim!!

The report does not quote whether its I-140 or I-485??? If its I-485, then does not mean that demand is low because the priority dates for I-485 (EB2-EB3) has not been current for 2008/2009 atleast for India/China. Am i right??

[rockstart]

There are 50,000 EB2 backlogged applications and 940000 EB3 backlogged applications so if the demand is so low we should have seen huge movement in EB2 applications. But to the contrary we have seen a backward movement from last year (2006 to 2003). I guess USCIS is just contradicting itself with all these news.

[vivid_bharti]

My guess is EB2 India/China will eat all of 2010 fiscal quota and will become current by the end of fiscal year 2010. At the beginning of 2011 there won't be enough EB-2 filings to eat all of 2011, and that's when it will trickle down to EB-3 India/China etc. again for all this to happen new GC filings has to remain very low atleast at a point where they are right now for atleast next 2-3 years, which I see a probability.

[vbkris77]

Originally Posted by vivid_bharti

My guess is EB2 India/China will eat all of 2010 fiscal quota and will become current by the end of fiscal year 2010. At the beginning of 2011 there won't be enough EB-2 filings to eat all of 2011, and that's when it will trickle down to EB-3 India/China etc. again for all this to happen new GC filings has to remain very low atleast at a point where they are right now for atleast next 2-3 years, which I see a probability.

No, I don't think they got the right information. DOL is sitting on a ton of labor certifications from 2008 and not giving approval due to the FED sub contractor issues in their office. That was resolved 3-6 months back. Most of these labors will be for EB2 and are predominantly for ROW applicants. So they will consume all the quota of EB2 FY2010. For India and china irrespective of EB2/EB3, there is no hope. Only recapture will help. I suggest we need to aggressively support IV advocacy to make the recapture happen.

[rockstart]

Do you have details on what the Fed Subcontractor issue is?

[gc_on_demand]

I agree that right now there is a huge backlog in labor department. People are saying it takes almost 1 year to get approval in labor. So many people have replied to RFE and waiting.

at least 30-40% labors will be from Eb2 row and if some how labor department start approving those labor we wont see any spill over visas in future. So don't keep hope.

Only recapture will clear current backlog for India. ( I don't think even China will be as bad as India in 1 year).

Now that Today's hearing is cancelled ( Not postponed ) Do we really have hope to have CIR bill drafted sometime in Sep / Oct ? NOOOOOOOO WAY. Unless economy is back up no hope for CIR.

[anairda]

Maybe is a good news but we don't know how many cases are stuck at DOL for audit and I believe that DOL is counting only the approved one's. I know around 22 people stuck in audit since 2007.

[vbkris77]

Originally Posted by rockstart

Do you have details on what the Fed Subcontractor issue is?

It was a feud between 2 contractors and a law suit.

[gauravster]

There is a lot of confusion in this news report as it is not clear what exactly they have been counting. Is it new applications of I-485 or PERM or I-140. Given the large number of pending applications (also that dependents are probably not yet counted except at I-485 stage) and USCIS own estimate that it could take more than 10 years for some people, I think, assuming getting a green card quick in the current law is completely incorrect. Anyone who expects a quick relief in the current system would be in an illusion and it would be incorrect to do anything based on that. One can only get temporary happiness through such illusions.

[texanguy]

If there are only 36000 green card application received in 2009, then about 100,000 visas are ready to be alloted to the oversubscribed countries in last months of the fiscal year. That means we can see a large progress of EB2 IN priority date in September. May be somewhere just before July 07. This should be good news for EB3-IN folks too, since from start of new year,they will start getting a piece of pie from the carryover visas. Although it would take July-Sept 2010 to see major jump in EB3 IN priority dates.

[gc_on_demand]

First of all.. this is just a news. No solid link to govt site to backup these data. Also nothing is clear .. which application they are talking about.


If dates will not move little bit for India Eb2 then we are in dead water for next year too.

Let's focus on RECAPTURE.

[vbkris77]

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

First of all.. this is just a news. No solid link to govt site to backup these data. Also nothing is clear .. which application they are talking about.


If dates will not move little bit for India Eb2 then we are in dead water for next year too.

Let's focus on RECAPTURE.

State and USCIS has much more data than we do. They are not advancing the PDs at all and also warning on a very slow pace. Even if India consumes the entire year limit on the first day of FY2010, our backlog will not be cleared. It may advance by a year max. Remember we are talking about 2003, 2004. These years are IT boom years. H1Bs were over subscribed. It was the case till 2007.

If the economy is f***up like this for an additional year, I don't think we will be able to take hate campaign from rightwing friends. So don't buy-in to this news.

[hopelessGC]

Oh how we relish and hang-on to the slightest glimmer of hope. That, indeed, is hopeless.