Will CIR reform happen and pass

[harrydr]

As of latest news tonight, it appears that health care reform will pass and this would be a huge win for Obama and his administration.

I was trying to evaluate the affect of health care reform on the upcoming (if there is one) immigration reform. Does the passage of health care reform indicate that the immigration reform has high possibility of success or does this mean that now Obama admin. will relax and just highlight the fact that they have done enough by passing the health care reform and they will now not push for the immigration reform.

Thoughts and views are appreciated.

[ronhira]

there r 3 priorities for obama administration...... capin trade..... financial reform..... & immigration....

after recent developments @ copanhagen..... capin trade will take back seat....... financial reform was passed by house.... senate has to pass it...... so by the process of elimination..... immigration is the next in line..... but it won't be the guirrez cir bill .......

[harrydr]

If what you are saying is true, then why the hell is he pushing so hard for the health reform bill. I'm just being cautious to understand how and where obama administration efforts are being used..............

[bushman06]

Its all going to be speculation in this forum.

[gc_on_demand]

Originally Posted by ronhira

there r 3 priorities for obama administration...... capin trade..... financial reform..... & immigration....

after recent developments @ copanhagen..... capin trade will take back seat....... financial reform was passed by house.... senate has to pass it...... so by the process of elimination..... immigration is the next in line..... but it won't be the guirrez cir bill .......

House has given indication that it will not start first. Senate has to comeup with its bill and pass it. I believe Senate floor will be busy with Financial Reform and job bill for Jan / Feb meanwhile we may see movements in subcommittee and committee. In march Senate will intro bill. house may do same in march ( I mean new bill other than Rep Guterize ) and Floor action will happen in April 2010.

[arnab221]

Gutierrez' reform plan has no chance :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Esther J. Cepeda

To give you an idea of how much impact Rep. Luis Gutierrez' immigration reform proposal made on the national agenda when he debuted it last Tuesday, this is the number of White House press corps questions asked on the subject at that day's press briefing:

The attention was on the President Obama's health-care meeting with the Senate and Illinois' Thomson prison -- the so-called "Illinois Gitmo" -- and what to do with those other pesky foreigners, with a few questions on climate-change talks in Copenhagen, a few on Iran's nuclear intentions and even an inquiry about an obscure Hawaiian government reorganization act that might get attached to the Pentagon spending measure.

But not a single question -- or comment from the White House press secretary -- regarding that day's immigration law reform proposal.

Yep, immigration reform, a topic the Obama administration vowed as recently as April would get much-needed attention -- and possibly a proposal for a comprehensive overhaul -- in 2009.

So why did the nation's news editors and the elite White House press corps completely ignore Gutierrez' proposal?

Because there isn't a snowball's chance for a plan to allow 12 million illegal immigrants to waltz out of the shadows and into the open arms of a United States that is breaking under the weight of 10 percent unemployment.

Hey, you can't blame Gutierrez for trying -- there are plenty of productive, nonviolent illegal immigrants who would be a tremendous asset to this country and should be allowed to make it better -- but he picked the wrong time and the wrong tactic.

There's never a bad time to figure out how to treat humanely people already illegally living in our country, but some moments are better than others. Now, as the White House deals with the economy, unemployment, health care, climate change, Afghanistan and about a million other things, is definitely not the best time.

What the Obama administration is doing at the moment is bending over backward to combine special humanitarian deportation exemptions -- i.e., star UIC student and DUI offender Rigo Padilla -- with a comprehensive worksite enforcement strategy and reforms to the sometimes horrifying immigration detention system. The idea is to demonstrate progress.

To the chagrin of some immigrant advocacy organizations, these efforts indicate that the issue does enjoy priority status in certain measurable ways and dilutes the "us-vs.-them narrative" that whipped up such a passion during the George W. Bush years.

Then there's Gutierrez' actual proposal: purposely dependent on mass legalization, lacking a temporary-worker program, and leaving completely unanswered the million-dollar question of how this plan is significantly different from the amnesty of the 1980s, popularly believed to have been the precursor to the massive influx of illegal immigrants that sparked an angry and frustrated backlash -- the "send them all home" Sensenbrenner Bill of 2005.

Gutierrez is right to push the reform envelope, but he must go back to the drawing board. And while he's there, here's my advice: Forget the prayer vigils and the sob stories and instead talk to people about this country's economic progress. If interested parties want to see productive, pragmatic -- and therefore humane -- immigration law reform come to pass, they need to break out the business case. Let's see the numbers. Get a truly bipartisan panel into a room with a team of statistical analysts tasked with creating an unbiased accounting of the costs and benefits of legalization.

Weigh in all the factors that scare the bejeezus out of the detractors -- increased education and health-care costs -- add in all the benefits we'd supposedly gain, like young, hardworking U.S.-loving citizens. Then make the airtight business case required to either propose a reform that actually has a chance of passing or relegate the whole thing to the waiting room until -- as one keen observer put it -- "the last unemployed American finds a job."

[immigrant2007]

Originally Posted by gc_on_demand

House has given indication that it will not start first. Senate has to comeup with its bill and pass it. I believe Senate floor will be busy with Financial Reform and job bill for Jan / Feb meanwhile we may see movements in subcommittee and committee. In march Senate will intro bill. house may do same in march ( I mean new bill other than Rep Guterize ) and Floor action will happen in April 2010.

Does this bill tell us that how they plan to use the recaptured numbers. Will they go to EB or family?
This bill indicates that the unused numbers will rollover to next year quota but in any case how long do they think that EB3-I for 2001, 2002, 2003 , 2004, 2005 , 2006 take? or they will still have to wait depending 7 to 10% quots. I think we should not agree for anything less than"NO QUOTA for people stuck in backlog AND taking away the years lost in backlog from the citizenship line and no visa to be issued to cases filed for people benefiting in the bil before all in line (backlog or non backlog) have got their GCs". Give it a serious thought ...without getting GC immediately there is going to be another 5-10 years of backlog even if this bill is passed.....WE need a firm commitment here not other queue or something another BEC (backlog elimination center) for clearing visa in next 5 years (if that is so then we should get temporary GCs indepdent of any restrictions of employer / AC21 etc) and we should gbe able to file citizenship nce we get our GC immediately (if it is more than 5 years then we should get citizenship instead of GC). Don't fall in a trap.

[h1techSlave]

The Chicago times article says:
"Gutierrez is right to push the reform envelope, but he must go back to the drawing board. And while he's there, here's my advice: Forget the prayer vigils and the sob stories and instead talk to people about this country's economic progress. If interested parties want to see productive, pragmatic -- and therefore humane -- immigration law reform come to pass, they need to break out the business case. Let's see the numbers. Get a truly bipartisan panel into a room with a team of statistical analysts tasked with creating an unbiased accounting of the costs and benefits of legalization."

Developing and presenting a business case for immigration is what an organization like IV should be doing. Let me correct my self, we are already doing that. But we need to be a little more clear and come up with specific numbers and supporting data.

[kondur_007]

In this political environment, looking at the sentiment of people and politicians, it would be very difficult for any immigration reform to even come to the floor.

The politicians will not be able to face their constituents by passing a law that will make 12 million undocumented workers legal (and CHC will not let anything else come to the floor) when the unemployment is > 10%. Neither democrats nor republicans will support it.

First economy has to improve and then only there is a chance of CIR.

Just my thought...I am not an expert

[Alabaman]

Until the media latch on to Immigration Reform before it becomes a burning issue. The media have a way of fueling issues. It will come soon... it might be triggered by an immigration related event and then they will all latch on to it.

[Positive]

I think that there is very good chance to have CIR done early next year. Remember, debates are national - elections are local. Law makers with large immigrant constituents are going to support any way. Others may support if there is a strong business case. This is where IV can help - making a strong business case, partnering with organizations of similar interest.

Highlighting very accomplished immigrants is a good idea - but every body knows that vast majority of immigrants are not innovators. Regardless, all of us are contributing to US economy - directly or indirectly.

Surveys will definitely help - for example what percentage of foreign graduate students want to stay in US and what is the biggest roadblock in doing so; How are immigrants waiting for GC investing now; what is the biggest challenge they have in investing in US. IV can work with reputable organization in this area will enhance the credibility.

[ronhira]

based on what charlie cook said on hardball@msnbc..... immigration looks like a long shot..... accordning to charlie democrats will barely make it to the majority in the house in 2010..... & their position has gone bad in last 2 months..... and if democrats do anything controversial...... their position will become much more difficult.... they may even lose the majority in the house...... so it may be getting more difficult.....

[mdcowboy]

Gutierrez's bill is dead. I think if there is a chance, it would be Senator Schumer's bill. But with the focus solely on terrorism, strengthening the border security and TSA will become the highest priority along with health care. I would be really surprised if they even talk about immigration at this time.

[langagadu]

Don't worry, I am in hope to find this lamp. I will make the CIR happen.

http://pics.adorable-treasure.com/aladdin-lmp-199

[shivarajan]

washingtonpost.com