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Old 05-09-2012, 11:38 AM
The WalL The WalL is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Very well said. The overall demand data for EB2 I/C is 15750. The numbers especially for 2009 and 2010 are extremely low this is the region that is definitely seems to be work in progress. However still the maximum this number could possibly rise to would be 22 - 25K or lets rationalize it to 25K including porting for the year 2013 the situation seems to be much better than anticipated earlier. I believe that it is almost a certainty that around Oct 2013 the next intake will happen almost for sure because this in all likelihood be the time when the numbers will come close to exhaustion. If the demand data does not build up it may well come earlier.
Thanks. I agree with your projections of 25K when the dust settles down in a month or so. If this number carries through when we get our next look at the pending inventory, we can be fairly sure of EB2 I/C PD moving right back to 01-MAY-2010 in OCT-2012 bulletin and might end the winter at mid-2011 dates. That would put demand destruction at 0.75 - 0.8 as you had been assuming earlier.

The other question that may arise out of this is will EB3 see any SOFAD in FY2013 or does that wait until FY2014? I know its fairly optimistic to talk about spillover into EB3 at this point but its worth pointing out that there is outside chance of this occuring. A lot of this will depend on what happens between now and November in Congress (HR3012) and Obama's re-election. There is a bigger upside to immigration reform legislation with Obama as POTUS rather than a 1st term Romney who might be wary of upsetting his Tea-baggers.

Oh well, lets wait until Pending Inventory report from USCIS before we start dreaming up all these scenarios.
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