PDA

View Full Version : call me pessimistic


jasguild
07-16-2007, 11:59 PM
but even with this big announcement tomorrow, we still only have 140,000 visas and keep in mind USCIS has just been averaging about 100,000 per year. (so about 40,000 get wasted every year)

All all this does is to push the bottleneck further down the pipeline.

the only benefit I see is that it helps with filing of AP and EAD which does not help someone like me with my 485 already pending

Sorry I dont share the enthusisam

jasguil

guyfromsg
07-17-2007, 12:05 AM
expecting only to get EAD/AP near term and prepared to wait few years. I have PD of 2005 and don't mind waitin if I get EAD/AP benefits for myself and spouse.

jasguild
07-17-2007, 12:09 AM
I hear what you are saying. I am just saying this is a band aid solution.

jasquil

JunRN
07-17-2007, 12:11 AM
I myself is interested to get the interim benefits now and not expecting to receive the GC right away. But I can feel the frustration of those who are already in the few last steps.

After getting the EAD/AP within three months, I don't think our problem is solved already. We will be at certain point in time be in the same situation as the poster above.

mygcstory
07-17-2007, 12:24 AM
But the EAD/AP is a good band aid indeed, for many

styrum
07-17-2007, 12:26 AM
After getting the EAD/AP within three months, I don't think our problem is solved already. We will be at certain point in time be in the same situation as the poster above.
Who told you that you will get EAD/AP in three months. Nothing will prevent USCIS to develop backlogs in EAD/AP too now. "Oh there were so many filed in June/July so that we can't process them that fast anymore...":cool:

jasguild
07-17-2007, 12:26 AM
Plus if the news is what we expect (ie july applications will be accepted), think about what that will do to the people who cant file in time by the end of July. There application will FOREVER be Unavailable.

I am not saying the announcement tomorrow is a bad thing. I am just not very excited

The story of my life the last 6 years has been one delay/backlog/retrogression after the other.

jasquil

jasguild
07-17-2007, 12:29 AM
But the EAD/AP is a good band aid indeed, for many

Exactly. God foribid we lose our jobs. Before and after this announcement we are one bad earnings quarter away from being shipped back home. Its hard to enjoy life with stress like this.

jasquil

JunRN
07-17-2007, 12:29 AM
Who told you that you will get EAD/AP in three months. Nothing will prevent USCIS to develop backlogs in EAD/AP too now. "Oh there were so many filed in June/July so that we can't process them that fast anymore...":cool:

Atleast we can get Interim EAD after 90 days, can't we?

lordoftherings
07-17-2007, 12:38 AM
Just imagine what will happen to the market flooded with EADs. Job market for H1Bs will totally be down. No US companies will hire H1Bs if they get somebody with an EAD. Tonnes of Junior developers and S/W testers will in the market driving the billing rates down even further. It's better to pack up and leave. I have heard from one of the forums here that an estimated 500K people will file this month since all PDs are current. EB-3 mexico + phillipines togther alone will be close to 300K. God help the Job market.

Also minimum wait time will be 500K/140K ~ 4 yrs before they get to process your GC. Add to that the time for namecheck backlog 2+ yrs. So total 6+ yrs before getting GC........

lotr

vasa
07-17-2007, 12:41 AM
well then you will always rely on your experience and skills, there is a reason skills are categorized as junior staff and senior admins/developers/mgrs etc.

if u got the skills there's not stopping any one.:)

JunRN
07-17-2007, 12:47 AM
Just imagine what will happen to the market flooded with EADs. Job market for H1Bs will totally be down. No US companies will hire H1Bs if they get somebody with an EAD. Tonnes of Junior developers and S/W testers will in the market driving the billing rates down even further. It's better to pack up and leave. I have heard from one of the forums here that an estimated 500K people will file this month since all PDs are current. EB-3 mexico + phillipines togther alone will be close to 300K. God help the Job market.

Also minimum wait time will be 500K/140K ~ 4 yrs before they get to process your GC. Add to that the time for namecheck backlog 2+ yrs. So total 6+ yrs before getting GC........

lotr

This is the same argument used by anti-immigrants.

I am a nurse so we better flood the job market; don't you think so?

GKBest
07-17-2007, 12:50 AM
Plus if the news is what we expect (ie july applications will be accepted), think about what that will do to the people who cant file in time by the end of July. There application will FOREVER be Unavailable.

I am not saying the announcement tomorrow is a bad thing. I am just not very excited

The story of my life the last 6 years has been one delay/backlog/retrogression after the other.

jasquil


Be happy that you were able to file considering that you only spent 6 years of waiting. Think of the others who are waiting for more than 10 years.

lordoftherings
07-17-2007, 12:59 AM
This is the same argument used by anti-immigrants.

I am a nurse so we better flood the job market; don't you think so?

Now how does that makes me an anti-immigrant :mad: :mad: :mad: . I am ofcourse happy that so many of my friends here are going one step further in getting GC. Something is better than nothing. But, suddenly more than 1/2 mill people getting EAD will have some effect on the market. People(on H1B) loosing jobs after 3-4 months may find themselves in a difficult situation to get a job.
I am on H1B myself, how can I ever be an anti-immigrant ?:) :) I was expecting a little bit more permamnent solution and not a band-aid solution as somebody pointed out.

lotr

GKBest
07-17-2007, 01:13 AM
Now how does that makes me an anti-immigrant :mad: :mad: :mad: . I am ofcourse happy that so many of my friends here are going one step further in getting GC. Something is better than nothing. But, suddenly more than 1/2 mill people getting EAD will have some effect on the market. People(on H1B) loosing jobs after 3-4 months may find themselves in a difficult situation to get a job.
I am on H1B myself, how can I ever be an anti-immigrant ?:) :) I was expecting a little bit more permamnent solution and not a band-aid solution as somebody pointed out.

lotr

I guess we also expect this to happen in the future when all jobs will be filled up with nothing left for H1s unless more people retires or decide to pursue their dream somewhere else.

looivy
07-17-2007, 01:30 AM
There is a petition to capture lost visa. If lost visas are recaptured, there will be some relief.


but even with this big announcement tomorrow, we still only have 140,000 visas and keep in mind USCIS has just been averaging about 100,000 per year. (so about 40,000 get wasted every year)

All all this does is to push the bottleneck further down the pipeline.

the only benefit I see is that it helps with filing of AP and EAD which does not help someone like me with my 485 already pending

Sorry I dont share the enthusisam

jasguil

v7461558
07-17-2007, 01:32 AM
Think of it this way, there are already 280M US citizens who didn't take your H1B job for one reason or another, but most likely due to insufficient education or experience in your field.

The additional 500k potential EADs, of course, are a bit different in that their I-140s are approved (this is the scenario we expect to play out on Tuesday afternoon). What this means is that they are also in the pool of people whose job position could not be filled by a US citizen. If they are in your field, they may potentially be competing for your job, and it will indeed be easier for your employer to hire one of them because there is no H1B petition cost or hassle for the employer to go through.

Hiring an H1B is a barrier for your employer. It is there, but it is not particularly high, especially if you are not a new H1B but a renewal. You can just hope that your qualifications bring something on board with the company that is enough to overcome that barrier.

paskal
07-17-2007, 03:01 AM
but even with this big announcement tomorrow, we still only have 140,000 visas and keep in mind USCIS has just been averaging about 100,000 per year. (so about 40,000 get wasted every year)

All all this does is to push the bottleneck further down the pipeline.

the only benefit I see is that it helps with filing of AP and EAD which does not help someone like me with my 485 already pending

Sorry I dont share the enthusisam

jasguil


of course it's a band aid
important to maintain perspective.
the fight is not over, whatever happens tomorrow.
our goals remain to be met and we must continue this work.

JunRN
07-17-2007, 03:07 AM
I just don't like the tone of after getting work with a valid permit, then suddenly, one turns against those who are applying for work permit for the fear that they may take his job.

The anti-immigrants also fear that the immigrants are taking their jobs or lowering their wages atleast.

I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings but that's what I think and just my opinion.

bugmenot
07-17-2007, 03:19 AM
Now how does that makes me an anti-immigrant :mad: :mad: :mad: . I am ofcourse happy that so many of my friends here are going one step further in getting GC. Something is better than nothing. But, suddenly more than 1/2 mill people getting EAD will have some effect on the market. People(on H1B) loosing jobs after 3-4 months may find themselves in a difficult situation to get a job.
I am on H1B myself, how can I ever be an anti-immigrant ?:) :) I was expecting a little bit more permamnent solution and not a band-aid solution as somebody pointed out.

lotr


ur contradicting urself, all getting GC's or EAD's is still the same to the job market ,permanent or band aid , effect on job market is gonna be the same so in effect either ways that was an anti immigrant statement

BharatPremi
07-17-2007, 04:47 AM
I hear what you are saying. I am just saying this is a band aid solution.

jasquil

Yes, but you are missing the one important fact, that "band aid solution" would put band aid to thousands of hurt people which will sooth them for a while. I understand, your 485 is already in pipeline so you already have those band aids but claiming to be sorry portrayed you very selfish. Think about teh group then you will slowly start forgeting your sorriness.

bestia
07-17-2007, 05:15 AM
If we will get EADs, let's see who are gonna be our friends and enemies:

Lawyers. They are never our friends. If you are on H1b, then you better do every extension through the lawyer. If your H1b extension will be denied, you are in trouble. If you are on AOS/EAD cycle - you don't need a lawyer. It's a simple application. If for some reason your EAD denied (because you screwed something up in application), you will just reapply - it will not affect your status. If you will have a gap - just take leave without pay, to be formally compliant. So.. lawyers will lose, if we will all jump on EAD.

Employers. Believe me, so many consulting companies will be out of business for good, because a lot of folks will just join other companies for better salaries. It will be no more slavery, no more intimidation. For a lot of employers "f$%4 off" will be the usual thing they hear. So they won't like it.

Average American. We will be able to compete with them directly and kick them out of many positions. It's a capitalist country, and competition is a key to prosperity. It is much harder to find a job on H1B than with EAD. Yes, average American employee is undereducated and overpriced, and with a lot of demand and drama. Successful companies will love to hire us.

US government. They will like to get us on EAD, because we will start having higher salaries and will be paying higher taxes. We will start paying yearly EAD/AP fees. So, in this case DOS is on our side.

I think DOS perfectly understood that, that's why they made dates current to force USCIS give us EAD. It was no mistake. But all kinda anti-immigrant forces desperately made this impossible by more likely braking the law.

Lucky7
07-17-2007, 06:36 AM
Lets just say the announcement is that you can apply EAD/AP once your LC is cleared. Then just like usual USCIS will spend there time precocessing these new applicants and you will have to wait 1 yr just to get EAD/AP.

USCIS would be better run by a bunch of drunken monkeys.

thakurrajiv
07-17-2007, 08:16 AM
I just don't like the tone of after getting work with a valid permit, then suddenly, one turns against those who are applying for work permit for the fear that they may take his job.

The anti-immigrants also fear that the immigrants are taking their jobs or lowering their wages atleast.

I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings but that's what I think and just my opinion.
I agree with you. I just don't like the attitude of people who have got green card or EAD. Once they have it they want to stop all the immigration. Try too have a conversation with GC or EAD holder !!
BTW, people forget to take family based GC into account. If you think about it, around 500k GC are given every year. This means during my stay in US, around 3.5 million people have got GC, but I still never had problem in finding job with H1. Yes it is more difficult but definately possible. As someone mentioned , as long as one brings skills on table, the person will have job.
Most of the July filers have 140 approved and working in a full time job.So I think there will be little impact.

skakodker
07-17-2007, 09:36 AM
Exactly. God foribid we lose our jobs. Before and after this announcement we are one bad earnings quarter away from being shipped back home. Its hard to enjoy life with stress like this.

jasquil

We recently experienced a miracle of unity through the hugely successful flower campaign. What a shot in the arm that was!

My suggestion to you is to keep an open mind, accepting that your circumstances aren't presently of your choosing. Once you acknowledge your stress and accept it, you will be in a better position to focus on other aspects of your life that you might be neglecting as a result of your stress - for instance, having fun.

Life is short. Choose to live.

Legal
07-17-2007, 09:42 AM
but even with this big announcement tomorrow, we still only have 140,000 visas and keep in mind USCIS has just been averaging about 100,000 per year. (so about 40,000 get wasted every year)

All all this does is to push the bottleneck further down the pipeline.

the only benefit I see is that it helps with filing of AP and EAD which does not help someone like me with my 485 already pending

Sorry I dont share the enthusisam

jasguil

It is still some progress. Since June 13 th these arguments have been repeatedly brought up by people who already have a pending 485. No one ever said the fight is over or everything will be hunky dory.

jasguild
07-17-2007, 09:58 AM
Yes, but you are missing the one important fact, that "band aid solution" would put band aid to thousands of hurt people which will sooth them for a while. I understand, your 485 is already in pipeline so you already have those band aids but claiming to be sorry portrayed you very selfish. Think about teh group then you will slowly start forgeting your sorriness.

I said earlier, its not a bad thing as it will bring relief to some people. However it will also make it tough for anyone else after July to get 485 becuase of the huge back log.

I am not thinking about only myself. I am thinking about all of us. I am not enthused becuase I dont believe the decisions are not being made genuinely in our interest. They are doing the politically correct thing and not the morally correct thing.

jasquil

Raju
07-17-2007, 09:59 AM
but even with this big announcement tomorrow, we still only have 140,000 visas and keep in mind USCIS has just been averaging about 100,000 per year. (so about 40,000 get wasted every year)

All all this does is to push the bottleneck further down the pipeline.

the only benefit I see is that it helps with filing of AP and EAD which does not help someone like me with my 485 already pending

Sorry I dont share the enthusisam

jasguil

I would not call you pessimistic. You are SELFISH. Sure you do not share the same enthu because this announcement does not offer you anything. Grow up and feel for others. Everyone knows that there will be a backlog and that is an issue we have to deal with once we get there.

jasguild
07-17-2007, 10:12 AM
There is a petition to capture lost visa. If lost visas are recaptured, there will be some relief.

At least that would definetely help. Apparently over the past 5 years they have lost 180,000 visas just becuase.

jasquil

jasguild
07-17-2007, 10:17 AM
I would not call you pessimistic. You are SELFISH. Sure you do not share the same enthu because this announcement does not offer you anything. Grow up and feel for others. Everyone knows that there will be a backlog and that is an issue we have to deal with once we get there.

I wont even get in a pissing match with you. YOu are free to believe what ever you want.

if you read my post you will see my concern is about the system not working.

I can make a similar argument about you and others. You are so concerned about your benefit today, that you dont see the harm it may do to H1b holders and future candidates for I-485.

If it makes you feel good you can fly to washington and thank them for the blessings after the announcement. So whatever makes your boat floats...

jasquil

johnamit
07-17-2007, 10:34 AM
Most of the July filers have 140 approved and working in a full time job.So I think there will be little impact.
thats not necessarily true, there are lots of people with consulting firms including myself, however these are big consulting firms with 1000+ employees. I see fewer applicant from smaller companies.

johnamit
07-17-2007, 10:37 AM
A fix without AC-21 does not bring lot of relief for us, I hope they receive I-485 and allow us to use AC-21.

johnamit
07-17-2007, 10:44 AM
Yes you are right, there is bound to have EAD flood in market, with spouses of hi-tech worker will come to market to search hi-tech job with spouse phone support. I have seen such cases countless times in past few years and yes they will be in future without exception. However, matter of fact, these fresh EAD (previous H4) don't get the dream job in first attempt, it takes good 2 year to find a similar job that H1b hitech worker does.
But thats the realty of market, every year new jobs are added and every year new job seekers join the crowd.
On the otherside, a hitech worker is suppose to always learning something new and getting his/her position more stronger everyday, its a knowledge market, whoever knows more gets better $$. With my 7yr US exp and total 10 yrs CS exp I have no scare that any single fresh EAD will come close to me. A senior is always a senior no matter which field you talk.

delax
07-17-2007, 10:51 AM
Just imagine what will happen to the market flooded with EADs. Job market for H1Bs will totally be down. No US companies will hire H1Bs if they get somebody with an EAD. Tonnes of Junior developers and S/W testers will in the market driving the billing rates down even further. It's better to pack up and leave. I have heard from one of the forums here that an estimated 500K people will file this month since all PDs are current. EB-3 mexico + phillipines togther alone will be close to 300K. God help the Job market.

Also minimum wait time will be 500K/140K ~ 4 yrs before they get to process your GC. Add to that the time for namecheck backlog 2+ yrs. So total 6+ yrs before getting GC........

lotr

Isnt that how a market is supposed to work - on the laws of demand and supply. For every consequence there is always an unintended one. And if enought local wokers (EAD, others) are available then the laws of the market would require an automatic reduction in the number of H1b's.

Before people start dumping on me - lets remind ourselves that we are here for a healthy debate and to appreciate ALL view points.

Remember - It is not that important to know all the answers as it is to ask the right questions.

rongha_2000
07-17-2007, 11:02 AM
Better to get a band-aid than leave the injury open and bleeding.

I hear what you are saying. I am just saying this is a band aid solution.

jasquil

ssnd03
07-17-2007, 11:05 AM
FBI background check delay is the only reason why visa numbers are wasted every year. Pending I485 cannot be adjudicated and allocated visa numbers due to pending security checks. At the same time these pending I485s also don't let the visa bulletin dates move forward fast enough. Just wait and see how this problem is going to get worse in the coming years.

Retrogression is a serious problem right now due to quotas and country quotas. But backlogged FBI checks will make it worse for thousands of people.

Vsach
07-17-2007, 11:31 AM
Well it will be a big relief for us as family, my wife can pick up a job, my son is in high school...yes...we will take it!

jasguild
07-17-2007, 11:31 AM
FBI background check delay is the only reason why visa numbers are wasted every year.

I am not sure either way, however I have heard the FBI comment that they only flag a small fraction of cases. IF that is true, then the USCIS may just be using the FBI as an excuse.

jasquil

mhathi
07-17-2007, 11:33 AM
FBI background check delay is the only reason why visa numbers are wasted every year. Pending I485 cannot be adjudicated and allocated visa numbers due to pending security checks. At the same time these pending I485s also don't let the visa bulletin dates move forward fast enough. Just wait and see how this problem is going to get worse in the coming years.

Retrogression is a serious problem right now due to quotas and country quotas. But backlogged FBI checks will make it worse for thousands of people.

I agree with everybody on this thread. I agree this solution ( if any) will be a band aid. I also agree the band-aid is needed to prevent the wound from becoming fetid. I agree this may exacerbate problems.

For all these reasons, it is imperative we do not stop after this anouncement. Our long term goal has to be retrogression relief in one form or the other, including all or some of recapture of unused visas, increase in annual quota, resolution of the FBI name chack black hole, and more that able persons in IV can doubtless think of better than yours truly.

I, for one, am going to be a member of IV long after this anouncement.

jasguild
07-17-2007, 11:34 AM
I agree with everybody on this thread. I agree this solution ( if any) will be a band aid. I also agree the band-aid is needed to prevent the wound from becoming fetid. I agree this may exacerbate problems.

For all these reasons, it is imperative we do not stop after this anouncement. Our long term goal has to be retrogression relief in one form or the other, including all or some of recapture of unused visas, increase in annual quota, resolution of the FBI name chack black hole, and more that able persons in IV can doubtless think of better than yours truly.

I, for one, am going to be a member of IV long after this anouncement.


WELL SAID!!!

The only thing I would like to add is, when we eventually get our GC, lets not forget those behind us!

jasquil

mhathi
07-17-2007, 11:36 AM
WELL SAID!!!

The only thing I would like to add is, when we eventually get our GC, lets not forget those behind us!

jasquil

Absolutely!

gunabcd
07-17-2007, 11:55 AM
I have heard from one of the forums here that an estimated 500K people will file this month since all PDs are current. EB-3 mexico + phillipines togther alone will be close to 300K. God help the Job market.

Also minimum wait time will be 500K/140K ~ 4 yrs before they get to process your GC. Add to that the time for namecheck backlog 2+ yrs. So total 6+ yrs before getting GC........

lotr

6 years for everyone? is everyone's PD 2007? Are they going to issue GC only after 6 years? use a little common sense and you will find that GCs are given based on PD, Older the PD sooner you will get GC. for example a person with PD 2003 will get GC within 6 months.

If you know you are a pessimist, then sit down in a corner and keep crying, don't scrare others with your illogical, baseless arguments.

naveenarjun
07-17-2007, 11:58 AM
Yes you are right, there is bound to have EAD flood in market, with spouses of hi-tech worker will come to market to search hi-tech job with spouse phone support. I have seen such cases countless times in past few years and yes they will be in future without exception. However, matter of fact, these fresh EAD (previous H4) don't get the dream job in first attempt, it takes good 2 year to find a similar job that H1b hitech worker does.
But thats the realty of market, every year new jobs are added and every year new job seekers join the crowd.
On the otherside, a hitech worker is suppose to always learning something new and getting his/her position more stronger everyday, its a knowledge market, whoever knows more gets better $$. With my 7yr US exp and total 10 yrs CS exp I have no scare that any single fresh EAD will come close to me. A senior is always a senior no matter which field you talk.

Not all H4 are going to be in the hig-tech industry

jasguild
07-17-2007, 12:02 PM
6 years for everyone? is everyone's PD 2007? Are they going to issue GC only after 6 years? use a little common sense and you will find that GCs are given based on PD, Older the PD sooner you will get GC. for example a person with PD 2003 will get GC within 6 months.


I am not sure of this but from studying data, I get the impression that the GC are given out on a FIFO system based on when USCIS receives your I-485 (assuming it clears NC) and NOT PD date

jasquil

ssnd03
07-17-2007, 12:21 PM
I am not sure either way, however I have heard the FBI comment that they only flag a small fraction of cases. IF that is true, then the USCIS may just be using the FBI as an excuse.

jasquil

Well according to NSC they have completed processing of I485s upto Aug 2006 RD. They take only one year (and often less) to process I485s.

Pending I485s with earlier RDs are due to two reasons 1) retrogression and/or 2) FBI namecheck incomplete.

However, restrogression cannot cause wasted annual visa numbers. But FBI delays does. I doubt USCIS is passing the buck to FBI. It is a fact.

If USCIS wastes about 10K-20K visa numbers every year, then they are wasting about 10% every year. This 10% is consistent with the amount FBI name-check backlogs.

lordoftherings
07-17-2007, 01:06 PM
and how are you so sure that all EADs that will be entering the market are freshers. My wife (now on H4) already has 4 years exp in UK (psychology) before coming to US. I know a lot of H4s who have 7+ yrs exp (may not be very recent as they couldn't work on H4). So most of them may not be freshers but yes, competition is always healthy.

lotr

Yes you are right, there is bound to have EAD flood in market, with spouses of hi-tech worker will come to market to search hi-tech job with spouse phone support. I have seen such cases countless times in past few years and yes they will be in future without exception. However, matter of fact, these fresh EAD (previous H4) don't get the dream job in first attempt, it takes good 2 year to find a similar job that H1b hitech worker does.
But thats the realty of market, every year new jobs are added and every year new job seekers join the crowd.
On the otherside, a hitech worker is suppose to always learning something new and getting his/her position more stronger everyday, its a knowledge market, whoever knows more gets better $$. With my 7yr US exp and total 10 yrs CS exp I have no scare that any single fresh EAD will come close to me. A senior is always a senior no matter which field you talk.

arrarrgee
07-17-2007, 01:11 PM
I am sorry i donot agree with your point of view

Just imagine what will happen to the market flooded with EADs. Job market for H1Bs will totally be down. No US companies will hire H1Bs if they get somebody with an EAD. Tonnes of Junior developers and S/W testers will in the market driving the billing rates down even further. It's better to pack up and leave. I have heard from one of the forums here that an estimated 500K people will file this month since all PDs are current. EB-3 mexico + phillipines togther alone will be close to 300K. God help the Job market.

Also minimum wait time will be 500K/140K ~ 4 yrs before they get to process your GC. Add to that the time for namecheck backlog 2+ yrs. So total 6+ yrs before getting GC........

lotr

jasguild
07-17-2007, 01:11 PM
If USCIS wastes about 10K-20K visa numbers every year, then they are wasting about 10% every year. This 10% is consistent with the amount FBI name-check backlogs.

I am not sure either way but one thing to keep in mind. The FBI estimate is based on 10% of ALL petitions including family petitions. If you would isolate just the EB petitions, the percentage that the FBI flags is much less than 10%

But again I am just repeating what I read. So you could be right.

jasquil

lordoftherings
07-17-2007, 01:13 PM
I would not call you pessimistic. You are SELFISH. Sure you do not share the same enthu because this announcement does not offer you anything. Grow up and feel for others. Everyone knows that there will be a backlog and that is an issue we have to deal with once we get there.
You are more SELFISH than anybody else and you lack farsight. You are the one just thinking about yourself only. What will happen to all those old guys whose labour is stuck in backlog centers. If they can't get to file this month, they have to wait for another 6 yrs before visas become available. What will happen to new filers who plan to file GC soon. They have to wait forever.

Waitingnvain
07-17-2007, 01:22 PM
I think you might be getting stressed out for no reason vis-a-vis the job market. Most of the people applying (~500k by your estimates) are already on H-1B or L-1. The number of spouses getting EAD is another question.


Just imagine what will happen to the market flooded with EADs. Job market for H1Bs will totally be down. No US companies will hire H1Bs if they get somebody with an EAD. Tonnes of Junior developers and S/W testers will in the market driving the billing rates down even further. It's better to pack up and leave. I have heard from one of the forums here that an estimated 500K people will file this month since all PDs are current. EB-3 mexico + phillipines togther alone will be close to 300K. God help the Job market.

Also minimum wait time will be 500K/140K ~ 4 yrs before they get to process your GC. Add to that the time for namecheck backlog 2+ yrs. So total 6+ yrs before getting GC........

lotr

CADude
07-17-2007, 01:24 PM
You has incorrect infomation. Your Receive Date is a factor but PD is also a big factor, if limited number available.

If two person has submitted their application. One has PD 2001 and RD June 10 2007 and other had PD Jan 2006 with RD May 1 2006.

USCIS 485 Processing Date: June 15th 2007 and Visa Bullitin has "C"

Still PD with 2001 will get the the number first before PD 2006 case.

So
485 RD < USCIS 485 Processing date and PD < Visa Bulletin date
Order by PD desc

hope this help

I am not sure of this but from studying data, I get the impression that the GC are given out on a FIFO system based on when USCIS receives your I-485 (assuming it clears NC) and NOT PD date

jasquil

coolfun
07-17-2007, 01:39 PM
You are WRONG.

Once 485 is filed, its processed according to the "receipt date". Period. Priority date just decides when to file 485. Please know your facts before posting on the forum!!!

You has incorrect infomation. Your Receive Date is a factor but PD is also a big factor, if limited number available.

If two person has submitted their application. One has PD 2001 and RD June 10 2007 and other had PD Jan 2006 with RD May 1 2006.

USCIS 485 Processing Date: June 15th 2007 and Visa Bullitin has "C"

Still PD with 2001 will get the the number first before PD 2006 case.

So
485 RD < USCIS 485 Processing date and PD < Visa Bulletin date
Order by PD desc

hope this help