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chakalov
07-28-2007, 10:54 AM
As we all know some countries (like India and china) have a longer PD wait than other due to the large amount of applicants from that particular region. So my question is what do you think is the ratio between India and ROW? When do you think ROW will become current so India can get the extra visas left over from there?

bestia
07-29-2007, 04:42 AM
....

To my surprise there are no many Chinese cases. India takes the main bulk.

It doesn't surprise me.

China is officially a communist country. You can claim to be anti-communist and get asylum. Easier than going through H1/LC/140/EAD/485.

People from countries with Islamic law get asylum based on religion, pretending of being gay, etc. People from ex-USSR claim to be refugees from their new "tyrant" leaders (Lukashenko, Putin works).

India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc. So for many Indians EB is the only way to step into US. I think that explains why majority of EB immigrants are from India.

franklin
07-29-2007, 05:19 AM
It doesn't surprise me.

China is officially a communist country. You can claim to be anti-communist and get asylum. Easier than going through H1/LC/140/EAD/485.

People from countries with Islamic law get asylum based on religion, pretending of being gay, etc. People from ex-USSR claim to be refugees from their new "tyrant" leaders (Lukashenko, Putin works).

India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc. So for many Indians EB is the only way to step into US. I think that explains why majority of EB immigrants are from India.

Hmmm - interesting, I'd never really thought about that.

I have to disagree and say that isn't a good source of reliable info for this. For example, it has just over 3500 I485 or I140 and I485 concurrent cases, ranging from June 2000 - July 2007. That's a sample of less than 5% of cases at best, and we really can't say for any certainty if there is a skew of info on there. Just knowing my greencard hopeful friends (all of whom are from ROW), I know they've never heard about . They've heard of IV because I'm a nag ;)

I don't argue that row is a minority, but since the USCIS doesn't even know these figures its tricky to say for sure

bestia
07-29-2007, 06:24 PM
Wow, I got red . Did I offend somebody? Why not to speak openly? No big deal of course, but reminded of old soviet communist times, when people were sneakily ratting at each other. Disgusting.

buehler
07-29-2007, 06:34 PM
Is there any proof that India is 80% of EB applications. Don't quote numbers without any proof. Also I don't believe is very good source. It is very likely to be skewed in favor of Indians. It is likely to be more used by people who have been waiting for a long time, for after all if I get a GC in less than a year why would I bother so much. Hence more Indians. Also it is likely to be more used by IT related folks. Again that would favor Indians.

Once statistic that we might use is the PERM statistics released a week or so ago.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11254

As per this, Indians constitue only some 28% of the PERM applicants in 2007. Again the proportion might be much higher if we consider all applicants who are currently waiting for a GC.

Wow, I got red . Did I offend somebody? Why not to speak openly? No big deal of course, but reminded of old soviet communist times, when people were sneakily ratting at each other. Disgusting.

Click on the USER CP Link at the top and you will see which post of yours got you the red .

franklin
07-29-2007, 06:39 PM
Wow, I got red . Did I offend somebody? Why not to speak openly? No big deal of course, but reminded of old soviet communist times, when people were sneakily ratting at each other. Disgusting.

Its totally arbitrary - I get negatives, apparently, when I try and help suggest ways to contribute that are not monetary, or when I remind people posting adverts to their own businesses that it is not allowed on the board.

Anyway, don't feel too bad about it

bestia
07-29-2007, 06:44 PM
Click on the USER Link at the top and you will see which post of yours got you the red .

Thanks :) It wasn't this thread.

gc_chahiye
07-29-2007, 08:30 PM
Is there any proof that India is 80% of EB applications. Don't quote numbers without any proof.

I have the same thoughts. If something like 80% of applicants were Indians, then EB3-ROW would have been current all along. I think (hope) that 28% number that you mention for 2007, is more accurate across other years too. Even then the output (9800) is 1/3 the input and no wonder we have backlogs for India.

Circus123
07-29-2007, 09:16 PM
I have the same thoughts. If something like 80% of applicants were Indians, then EB3-ROW would have been current all along. I think (hope) that 28% number that you mention for 2007, is more accurate across other years too. Even then the output (9800) is 1/3 the input and no wonder we have backlogs for India.

The article is as follows :

Latest Statistics of PERM Labor Certification

Recently, DOL has published the new statistics about PERM labor certification program.

Cumulative Production Statistics From March 28, 2005 to June 1, 2007
During this period, the total amount of application received is 204,280, 183,411 of these were filed by PERM on-line submission and the rest 20,869 applications were filed by mail-in submission. Enhancements to the PERM on-line system are improving the quality of applications received.

The total caseload of active PERM cases is 16,799, including 4% for sponsorship, 11% for audit review, 28% for recon/appeals and 57% for final review. Only 20% of the active cases in sponsorship, final review, and audit review were filed before March 1, 2007.

And totally, DOL has processed 187,481 applications, 144,299 applications certified, 37,976 denied and 5,206 withdrawn. The completion rate is 92%.

Highlights of Fiscal Year 2007 PERM Certifications(October 1,2006-March 31, 2007)
Approximately 48,400 cases were certified during the two calendar quarters of FY2007. The top 5 states of intended employment for these PERM labor certifications were California (11,266), New York (5,186), New Jersey (4,058), Texas (3,707), and Florida (2,994).

Alien beneficiaries representing 169 different countries were certified for permanent employment in the U.S. The top 10 countries of citizenship of alien beneficiaries included India (13,906), China (3,919), Mexico (3,832), South Korea (2,827), Canada (2,669), Philippines (2,486), United Kingdom (1,002), Brazil (913), and Equador (904).

Top 10 job titles certified for permanent employment included Computer Software
Engineers (8,788), Computer Systems Analysts (2,404), Restaurant Cooks (1,623), Electronics Engineers (1,289), Computer and Information System Managers (1,164), Financial Analysts (1,006), Market Research Analysts (874), Electrical Engineers (851), Computer Programmers (741) and Mechanical Engineers (719).

(06/14/2007)

chakalov
07-29-2007, 09:34 PM
So according to the calculations from previous PERM stats India+China+Mexico should account for about 30-35% of all EB green cards. So from all 144,299 (March,2005 - June,2007) application about 70% are for ROW EB3+EB2 or about 100,000 applicants. Say 40% of them are EB2 and already processed (EB2 ROW is current) that leaves us with 60,000 primary EB3 ROW applicants in retrogression. Say each of them has a family and on average brings one family member with him that makes 120,000 applicants total. Each year there 140,000 EB visas. From them about 25,000 to 30,000 are left for India+China+Maxico and it leaves us with 110,000 EB for ROW from which 40% or 44,000 go for EB2 ROW and the rest 66,000 go for EB3 ROW. In other words once the PD on visa bulletin hit march 2005 like it was in June VB it will take about 2 years for a PD of June 2007 to become current.
What do you guys think ... ?

franklin
07-29-2007, 09:44 PM
So according to the calculations from previous PERM stats India+China+Mexico should account for about 30-35% of all EB green cards. So from all 144,299 (March,2005 - June,2007) application about 70% are for ROW EB3+EB2 or about 100,000 applicants. Say 40% of them are EB2 and already processed (EB2 ROW is current) that leaves us with 60,000 primary EB3 ROW applicants in retrogression. Say each of them has a family and on average brings one family member with him that makes 120,000 applicants total. Each year there 140,000 EB visas. From them about 25,000 to 30,000 are left for India+China+Maxico and it leaves us with 110,000 EB for ROW from which 40% or 44,000 go for EB2 ROW and the rest 66,000 go for EB3 ROW. In other words once the PD on visa bulletin hit march 2005 like it was in June VB it will take about 2 years for a PD of June 2007 to become current.
What do you guys think ... ?

I think you just broke my brain :)

Seriously though, I gut says that percentages for India should be bumped up a little than 35% (combined with China and Mexico), but your analysis makes sense to me.

A missing part would be the pre PERMers, and I think there are significant numbers still around - but the country breakdown logic you provide could extend to those too.

2 years to get PD June 07 may be rather ambitious, especially for EB3 India

chakalov
07-29-2007, 10:02 PM
2 years to get PD June 07 may be rather ambitious, especially for EB3 India

I was talking only about ROW. India will take much longer than 2 years

Circus123
07-29-2007, 10:18 PM
So according to the calculations from previous PERM stats India+China+Mexico should account for about 30-35% of all EB green cards. So from all 144,299 (March,2005 - June,2007) application about 70% are for ROW EB3+EB2 or about 100,000 applicants. Say 40% of them are EB2 and already processed (EB2 ROW is current) that leaves us with 60,000 primary EB3 ROW applicants in retrogression. Say each of them has a family and on average brings one family member with him that makes 120,000 applicants total. Each year there 140,000 EB visas. From them about 25,000 to 30,000 are left for India+China+Maxico and it leaves us with 110,000 EB for ROW from which 40% or 44,000 go for EB2 ROW and the rest 66,000 go for EB3 ROW. In other words once the PD on visa bulletin hit march 2005 like it was in June VB it will take about 2 years for a PD of June 2007 to become current.
What do you guys think ... ?

Please remember that as per the article the 27-28% number for India comes for specifically Oct 06 - March 2007.
Now one can extrapolate these values and come up with 35 % or even more.

eeezzz
07-30-2007, 01:19 PM
It doesn't surprise me.

China is officially a communist country. You can claim to be anti-communist and get asylum. Easier than going through H1/LC/140/EAD/485.

People from countries with Islamic law get asylum based on religion, pretending of being gay, etc. People from ex-USSR claim to be refugees from their new "tyrant" leaders (Lukashenko, Putin works).

India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc. So for many Indians EB is the only way to step into US. I think that explains why majority of EB immigrants are from India.

Perhaps your statement is your own imagination.

1st, go for asylum based on religion, gay or tyrant is not as easy as you think. It also goes thru a long long process and go to the court many times. For example, for religion, if you claim you are christian and was persecuted, they will test you with bible. They will ask like "what does it talk about in John chapter 2" You can answer in your own language, not need to be English, but you have to know what you are talking about. Because you claim yourself as Christian and was persecuted. You are not going to tell them "I am a Christian but I don't read bible..." So it is not as easy as claim to be refugee and you get your GC.

2nd, if you claim for you were persecuted, you are against the goverment. With communist government, they might arrest you while you travel back or put you in blacklist and not let you go back anymore. Most of the immigrants still want to be able to go back to visit family or travel, aren't you? So if you really have made up your mind to go this route, you can probably go back unless you become citizen. And again, you can be blacklisted and they may refuse to issue you visa.

3rd, just image if you are coming from a Islamic country, you have your degree here and with H-1b now. Will you go for EB route or refugee route to get your GC ?

In the end, I am so curious about this. China is in communisiam. Mexico is in poor economy. That makes sense for the huge amount of people want to immigrate to US. and you say "India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc." and India's economy is as hot as China now. I wonder if India is that great, why there are still so many people want to immigrate to US from such a wonderful place?

belmontboy
07-30-2007, 02:58 PM
Perhaps your statement is your own imagination.

1st, go for asylum based on religion, gay or tyrant is not as easy as you think. It also goes thru a long long process and go to the court many times. For example, for religion, if you claim you are christian and was persecuted, they will test you with bible. They will ask like "what does it talk about in John chapter 2" You can answer in your own language, not need to be English, but you have to know what you are talking about. Because you claim yourself as Christian and was persecuted. You are not going to tell them "I am a Christian but I don't read bible..." So it is not as easy as claim to be refugee and you get your GC.

2nd, if you claim for you were persecuted, you are against the goverment. With communist government, they might arrest you while you travel back or put you in blacklist and not let you go back anymore. Most of the immigrants still want to be able to go back to visit family or travel, aren't you? So if you really have made up your mind to go this route, you can probably go back unless you become citizen. And again, you can be blacklisted and they may refuse to issue you visa.

3rd, just image if you are coming from a Islamic country, you have your degree here and with H-1b now. Will you go for EB route or refugee route to get your GC ?

<I>In the end, I am so curious about this. China is in communisiam. Mexico is in poor economy. That makes sense for the huge amount of people want to immigrate to US. and you say "India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc." and India's economy is as hot as China now. I wonder if India is that great, why there are still so many people want to immigrate to US from such a wonderful place?</I>

it's not about democracy/religion, it's about competing with Billion people in our homecountry and better lifestyle over here...

BharatPremi
07-30-2007, 03:20 PM
A missing part would be the pre PERMers, and I think there are significant numbers still around - but the country breakdown logic you provide could extend to those too.

2 years to get PD June 07 may be rather ambitious, especially for EB3 India


not significant.. Almost all of them are still around.. 350000 files are already in pipeline of 485 .. You can assume 96 % of them are from Pre PERM lot. Almost 200000 people like me are also from PRE PERM lot and could just file 485..

chakalov
07-30-2007, 03:35 PM
not significant.. Almost all of them are still around.. 350000 files are already in pipeline of 485 .. You can assume 96 % of them are from Pre PERM lot. Almost 200000 people like me are also from PRE PERM lot and could just file 485..

The missing part of the equation is the interval Aug'02 to PERM (March'05). In April 2007 VB was showing AUG'02 and obviously there were not enough applicants or they would have not moved the dates in May'07 VB. If anyone has any info or statistics for this interval please post them.

mheggade
07-30-2007, 03:42 PM
Perhaps your statement is your own imagination.

1st, go for asylum based on religion, gay or tyrant is not as easy as you think. It also goes thru a long long process and go to the court many times. For example, for religion, if you claim you are christian and was persecuted, they will test you with bible. They will ask like "what does it talk about in John chapter 2" You can answer in your own language, not need to be English, but you have to know what you are talking about. Because you claim yourself as Christian and was persecuted. You are not going to tell them "I am a Christian but I don't read bible..." So it is not as easy as claim to be refugee and you get your GC.

2nd, if you claim for you were persecuted, you are against the goverment. With communist government, they might arrest you while you travel back or put you in blacklist and not let you go back anymore. Most of the immigrants still want to be able to go back to visit family or travel, aren't you? So if you really have made up your mind to go this route, you can probably go back unless you become citizen. And again, you can be blacklisted and they may refuse to issue you visa.

3rd, just image if you are coming from a Islamic country, you have your degree here and with H-1b now. Will you go for EB route or refugee route to get your GC ?

In the end, I am so curious about this. China is in communisiam. Mexico is in poor economy. That makes sense for the huge amount of people want to immigrate to US. and you say "India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc." and India's economy is as hot as China now. I wonder if India is that great, why there are still so many people want to immigrate to US from such a wonderful place?

Whats your point anyways....South Korea is better developed country than India and it has democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc, why do you think there are so many(more numbers compare to China) people immigrating to US.

franklin
07-30-2007, 03:52 PM
I was talking only about ROW. India will take much longer than 2 years

Ah - gotcha. In that case, yes - way more plausible!

eeezzz
07-30-2007, 05:04 PM
Whats your point anyways....South Korea is better developed country than India and it has democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc, why do you think there are so many(more numbers compare to China) people immigrating to US.

My point is bestia's statement about why Indians take main bulk and not so many Chinese case is probably not correct since there might be something he doesn't know.

Truly South Korea is better developed country than India and it has democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc. and if you ask me why there are many Koreans want to immigrate to US. My GUESS is the potential possibility of war/invasion threat from North Korea. But this is just my guess. I don't see specific reason other than that. My guess is based on Japan is pretty similar to South Korea in many places, but you don't see too many applications from Japan.

I don't know if South Korea has more immigrants than China or they should have their own category like India/Mexico/China does. I do know South Korea is not eligible for VISA lottery.

belmontboy said "a better lifestyle" is a good reason.

bestia
07-30-2007, 08:31 PM
eeezzz, I didn't want to respond, since you had many logical fallacies and this thread is not about asylum. But, OK. I will. You don't live in LA? Don't you? If you do - just ask around.

Perhaps your statement is your own imagination.

Perhaps, and perhaps it's the data from http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/

which shows that asylum immigrants are more than EB :)


1st, go for asylum based on religion, gay or tyrant is not as easy as you think. It also goes thru a long long process and go to the court many times. For example, for religion, if you claim you are christian and was persecuted, they will test you with bible. They will ask like "what does it talk about in John chapter 2" You can answer in your own language, not need to be English, but you have to know what you are talking about. Because you claim yourself as Christian and was persecuted. You are not going to tell them "I am a Christian but I don't read bible..." So it is not as easy as claim to be refugee and you get your GC.


It doesn't go through "long long" process. It's ONE !!! interview with an immigration officer, then you are issued a "white card". After ONE!!! year you are eligible to apply for green card. And, btw, your citizenship years count since issuance of "white card" - so 5-6 years more, and you are a citizen.
In case officer denies your application, your case forwarded to immigration judge. In case he doesn't approve, you appeal, in case you lose appeal, you appeal to 9th circuit. And I don't know anybody who was deported after 9-th circruit. Meanwhile you get EAD/AP. At worst case scenario you will live 10 years with EAD/AP... better than 10 years with H1/LC.

And I never mentioned Christians. And studying Bible is not that hard, I have read and Bible, and Koran, and Buddist texts. It's not a rocket science. Jehova witnesses bugged me so much, so I already know perfectly their doctrine and what their claims are :)


2nd, if you claim for you were persecuted, you are against the goverment. With communist government, they might arrest you while you travel back or put you in blacklist and not let you go back anymore. Most of the immigrants still want to be able to go back to visit family or travel, aren't you? So if you really have made up your mind to go this route, you can probably go back unless you become citizen. And again, you can be blacklisted and they may refuse to issue you visa.


This is entertaining :) The funny thing is that the reality is TOTALLY OPPOSITE. Chinese government LOVES when Chinese people get asylum, it's the U.S. who prohibits people from traveling back to their countries :) And you know why? Because once people have their US documents, they start sending money back home. Once they get a little better here, then they go back home and start investing in their home countries. Imagine for whom it will be easier to open a factory in China? Chinese-American, who knows all the tricky ways back home or American-American who has no idea about Chinese specifics.

And something else. If a lot of Chinese will be become US citizens, they will start influencing US politics and laws, which will benefit China.

3rd, just image if you are coming from a Islamic country, you have your degree here and with H-1b now. Will you go for EB route or refugee route to get your GC ?


I would refer you here to the law. You are allowed to apply for asylum only first year. If you have been here for more than a year you CANNOT apply for asylum. So your argument is not valid.


In the end, I am so curious about this. China is in communisiam. Mexico is in poor economy. That makes sense for the huge amount of people want to immigrate to US. and you say "India doesn't fit in any of these categories: it's democracy, with freedom of religion, speech, etc." and India's economy is as hot as China now. I wonder if India is that great, why there are still so many people want to immigrate to US from such a wonderful place?

This another lack of knowledge about asylum law. Asylum is NEVER granted based on poor economy. You can be dying of hunger - you are not eligible for asylum. Asylum is granted for those who fear of persecution by race, religion, beliefs, etc. etc. And yes, India neither Mexico don't fit in these categories, since they don't persecute anybody based on what I have listed.

And the last. Why are you implying that only poor people want to immigrate to the US? Can't you imagine an Indian bio-chemist who wants to come to the US not because he is poor, but because US does more advanced research in bio-chemistry? Or Chinese wanting to do a research in microelectronics? Or having some ideas how do develop a better enterprise, while the laws and political situation in his home country doesn't let him do so?

gondalguru
07-30-2007, 09:06 PM
Hmmm - interesting, I'd never really thought about that.

I have to disagree and say that isn't a good source of reliable info for this. For example, it has just over 3500 I485 or I140 and I485 concurrent cases, ranging from June 2000 - July 2007. That's a sample of less than 5% of cases at best, and we really can't say for any certainty if there is a skew of info on there. Just knowing my greencard hopeful friends (all of whom are from ROW), I know they've never heard about . They've heard of IV because I'm a nag ;)

I don't argue that row is a minority, but since the USCIS doesn't even know these figures its tricky to say for sure

Totally agree.
People who report on are the ones who are severely backlogged ... so it doesn't report all those EB2 ROW, EB2 china, EB1 etc...

satishku_2000
07-30-2007, 09:21 PM
FYI ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_377_of_the_Indian_Penal_Code

bestia
07-30-2007, 09:28 PM
FYI ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_377_of_the_Indian_Penal_Code

Wow, interesting.. is penalty death? By Islamic law, it's a death penalty. You have to be feared for your life and the government must be enforcing the law.

satishku_2000
07-30-2007, 09:31 PM
Its as good as any other law. 10 years in prison is not less than a death sentence by any means.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-187403,prtpage-1.cms

satishku_2000
07-30-2007, 09:32 PM
Some one was referring to 9th circuit , One of the interesting judgements by them

http://www.bibdaily.com/pdfs/Singh%209%207-23-07.pdf

bestia
07-30-2007, 09:36 PM
Its as good as any other law. 10 years in prison is not less than a death sentence by any means.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-187403,prtpage-1.cms

Hmm... they mention even life sentence. How come then India placed on place of the most democratic country? I think it was UN report or something years back.

satishku_2000
07-30-2007, 09:42 PM
Hmm... they mention even life sentence. How come then India placed on place of the most democratic country? I think it was UN report or something years back.


You can think whatever you want to about the report but that is the law as it stands in the books as of today. Even homosexual acts were crime in some states in USA till 2003 until supreme court struck down the laws in its Lawrence Vs Texas decision.


http://www.cnn.com/2003/LAW/06/26/scotus.sodomy/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_v._Texas