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View Full Version : I figured out...why visa bulletin is stuck


dollar500
08-03-2007, 12:26 AM
So for EB3 india the visa bulletin is stuck at May 2001. I did some research and looked into what happed in 2001 about the dates


The reason is USCIS moved for nearly 2 years forward from JAN 2001 to June 2001. In July 2001 they made every thing current (isn't it kind of odd that in July 2007 they made everything current as well.)http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2001-07bulletin.html So I presume hundreds and thousands must have filed for their I 485s at that time. Curiously enough there are no visa bulletins from Aug 2001 to March 2002. But in Apr 2002 everybody is current. Surprisingly it stayed current until January 2005 when the retrogression hit again and they have to go back to Jan 2002.

We are now seeing the effects of all those applications. Does this make any sense. It's some interesting pattern but I am not completely able to analyze the situation. Any inputs??

dollar500
08-03-2007, 12:27 AM
The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (Title I of Pub. L. 106 - 313 enacted on October 17, 2000) contained several provisions intended to increase the availability of Employment-based numbers. Pub. L. 106-313 recaptured those Employment-based numbers that were available but not used in Fiscal Years 1999 and 2000, creating a “pool” of 130,107 numbers which could be allocated to applicants in the Employment First, Second, and Third preference categories once the annual Employment-based numerical limit has been reached. Approximately 101,000 of these “pool” numbers remain available for use during FY-1005. Pub. L. 106-313 also removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

Changes in CIS processing procedures during the past two years created a significant backlog of cases and a consequent reduction in demand for numbers.
During the time that the Employment-based categories have remained “Current” many tens of thousands of applicants have become eligible to file for adjustment of status. Last summer, CIS notified Congress of its intent to eliminate its current backlogs by the end of FY-2006. As a result of the CIS backlog reduction effort, we are now experiencing very heavy visa demand as CIS has begun to process cases to conclusion. Section 201(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that not more than 27 percent of the Employment-based annual limit may be used in each of the first three quarters of a fiscal year. Based on the current rate of demand, the 27 percent level for the first quarter of FY-2005 will be exceeded by the end of December.

It has therefore become necessary to impose an Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for January in order to limit number use during the second quarter. Many of the cases have priority dates that are several years old, and the cut-off date represents the first priority date that cannot be accommodated for final processing. The cut-off date will apply only to the following chargeability areas: China-mainland born, India, and Philippines. Cut-off date movement during the remainder of FY-2005 depends on the extent of future visa demand. No specific predictions are possible at this time.

dollar500
08-03-2007, 12:39 AM
....bump.....

sanju
08-03-2007, 12:46 AM
Thanks for the information. VB dates were stuck around April 2001 date because a large number of applications were filed to meet the deadline for
245i.

The dates were “current” until 2005 because of the availability of unused visa numbers that were recaptured by AC-21 bill - passed in 2000-2001. So countries with larger applicant pool got (a lot) more than the otherwise allowed ~3000 green cards in each category. Since 2005, there are no recaptured visa numbers are available, so applicants in a category from any specific country cannot get more than ~ 3000 green cards. Pls. see the distribution of green card numbers in 2006 in his document:
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY06AnnualReportTableV-Part2.pdf

Most people on the forum are busy tracking their 485 receipt, of encashment of bank checks, IO comments etc. Most people will learn that all this is tracking is of no use other than helping everybody to have higher BP. If more green card numbers are not allocated, the wait time for applicants with priority date 2006 could possibly be more than a decade. The past trends were driven by positive events like visa recapture etc. So these trends are not reflective of what to expect in the future. But looking at 2006 numbers, one thing is for sure, the wait times could be a many more that what we would expect.

There is only thing that can prevent wait times of more than 10-15 years - change in the law to increase the number of EB GCs.

skodu
08-03-2007, 01:35 AM
If the ROW numbers are not used up, they could be used for EB3/EB2 for India 9and China to some extent) at the end of the Fiscal year. All these AILF/AILA lawyers are saying there is no law for doing this.

But I don't see anyone mentioning anywhere that Law prohibits explicitly using those numbers for India EB3, like they did this year. The Visa bulletin provides guidelines on the country cap, but it does not address the unused numbers condition at the end of fiscal year. SO using them for some backlogged countries is not against the law. I think it finally depends on the internal USCIS officials who interprets the law. They will do whatever they want internally within those guide lines. If nothing is written explicitly that it is against the law, then they are not breaking the law. i am not sure if my assumption and interpretation is correct. But these are my thoughts based on events. But This thread has very good observations and study of the past events. Thanks to Dollar500 and Sanju.

shreekhand
08-03-2007, 01:39 AM
Well...most of the applications who applied for I-485 before retrogression hit in 2005 are already approved. So actually we are not seeing an effect of those applications.

What we are witnessing is the effect of all those who could not apply for I-485 from early 2001 till now because of the combined effect of retrogression and BEC! And as if that was not enough all those with PD's up until July 31, 2007 are applying (good for them) but making matters even difficult!!!



We are now seeing the effects of all those applications. Does this make any sense. It's some interesting pattern but I am not completely able to analyze the situation. Any inputs??

shreekhand
08-03-2007, 01:45 AM
FYI - Those "guide lines" are known as CFR - Code of Federal Regulations based on US Code (The Law). There is not much they can do outside of a clear CFR.

If the ROW numbers are not used up, they could be used for EB3/EB2 for India 9and China to some extent) at the end of the Fiscal year. All these AILF/AILA lawyers are saying there is no law for doing this.

But I don't see anyone mentioning anywhere that Law prohibits explicitly using those numbers for India EB3, like they did this year. The Visa bulletin provides guidelines on the country cap, but it does not address the unused numbers condition at the end of fiscal year. SO using them for some backlogged countries is not against the law. I think it finally depends on the internal USCIS officials who interprets the law. They will do whatever they want internally within those guide lines. If nothing is written explicitly that it is against the law, then they are not breaking the law. i am not sure if my assumption and interpretation is correct. But these are my thoughts based on events. But This thread has very good observations and study of the past events. Thanks to Dollar500 and Sanju.

anilsal
08-03-2007, 01:49 AM
Very well said. We need legislation and for that to happen, grass roots efforts from IV to end this retrogression.

Now get back to becoming a contributing member plus supporting IV efforts by opening/joining your state chapter and meeting local law makers.

dollar500
08-03-2007, 11:16 AM
Why again it's stuck around May 2001. Somebody mention about the new law now at that time they were able to do concurrent filing. Not quite clear now!